#Israel - Iran - US (2026)
floral dawn
The U.S. military has introduced Ukrainian counter-drone technology in recent weeks at a key U.S. air base in Saudi Arabia, according to five people with knowledge of the matter, as it seeks to stem attacks that have destroyed aircraft and buildings, and killed at least one service member.
The deployment of a Ukrainian command-and-control platform called Sky Map at Prince Sultan Air Base, which has not previously been reported, is a sign of how Ukraine’s military has surged ahead in drone and counter-drone technologies that have been battle-hardened in its four-year war with Russia.
serene walrus
For the rescued f15 pilots do we know anything about them?
fossil summit
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/22/iran-hormuz-mines/
archive: https://archive.is/FPQrs
timid jungle
UKMTO Daily Summary: three reported incidents
https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2046983811750101381/en
Of note: warning 042-26 was not published, with the summary stating:
UKMTO received a report of an incident however no warning was issued at request of CSO.
(CSO is the vessel's Chief Security Officer)
Tasnim news update on SoH closure
Source: https://t.me/Tasnimnews/409835
DeepL Translation
Qalibaf: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible with a gross violation of the ceasefire.
Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly:
🔹 A complete ceasefire only has meaning if it is not violated by a maritime blockade and the hostage-taking of the world's economy, and if the Zionists' warmongering on all fronts is halted.🔹 Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible in gross violation of the ceasefire.
🔹 They did not achieve their goals through military aggression, and they will not achieve them through bullying either.
🔹 The only way is to accept the rights of the Iranian nation.
fossil summit
Motion to discharge S.J.Res.114, directing the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. (Baldwin)
https://www.democrats.senate.gov/2026/04/21/schedule-for-wednesday-april-22-2026
left basin
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3mk3cm7cpqk26
How trust worthy is Evergreen?
timid jungle
@left basin
The Iranian souce of the Iranian claim was posted earlier along with information on the vessels reportedly seized:
#1473081625775706295 message
The UKMTO issued warnings of an incident in the vicinity, though it is unknown if they refer to the same vessels in the Iranian claim.
#1473081625775706295 message
The shipwreck blusky account is an "osint" aggregator that generally doesn't post sources. In this case, they may be conflating the UKMTO and Iranian reports, but I'm not sure what or how strong the evidence is for that.
Personally, I find Evergreen pretty solid when they're doing their own flight or maritime tracking analysis.
timid jungle
Just checked Lloyd's list:
They note that:
- In addition to MSC FRANCESCA, the IRGC claims to have seized the EPAMINONDAS, which Lloyd's identifies as chartered by MSC. This appears to corroborate `@shipwreck75.bsky.social's1 claim that "Iranian forces have attacked multiple container ships from the European shipping company MSC."
- Lloyd's cites Vanguard Security - a prominent maritime security firm - as clarifying that it was the EPAMINONDAS that sustained damage to the bridge.
Lloyd's List is one of the maritime industry's most authoritative publications; Vanguard Security is a widely cited maritime security intelligence firm.
shadow vortex
Anyone know if there is a way to document if this is true regarding Iranian ship routes?
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2047038588462788804?s=20
X
timid jungle
Iran Media outlet Tasnim posts video of boarding of MSC FRANCESCA and EPAMINONDAS
DeepL Translation of text
First images of the seizure of rogue container ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the Revolutionary Guard Navy's fighters.
void roost
Sec Nav resigns #usa-canada message
woeful oar
## Iran Media outlet Tasnim posts video of boarding of MSC FRANCESCA and EPAMINO...
I don't think it's too speculative to say that this video seems to show a lot of choices that indicate how much propaganda planning went into seizing the ship. The shots of the guys climbing the ladder and the camera person seemingly walking back down the hall so the commando could point his gun down it towards them shows at the very least they were confident this would go easily. Ditto for later as the camera holder casually walks in front of a doorway to the bridge they had yet to "clear".
carmine hollow
Anyone know if there is a way to document if this is true regarding Iranian ship...
Lloyd List has a piece up that says that at least eight shadow fleet ships are doing something like this, but I don't have access to the entire piece
shadow vortex
Still huge numbers of US military cargo flights into the region. Hard to know what it could possibly be?
https://x.com/EGYOSINT/status/2047096349121020091?s=20
X
tiny path
Still huge numbers of US military cargo flights into the region. Hard to know wh...
Correct! And also hard to tell if that's actually out of the ordinary.
timid vine
Still huge numbers of US military cargo flights into the region. Hard to know wh...
There were reports of the ships lacking provisions
timid jungle
The Intercept's Nick Turse flags an undocumented change in the Pentagon's casualty numbers:
https://theintercept.com/2026/04/22/iran-war-military-casualties-wounded/
The conflicts US casualty stats can be found at:
https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/conflictCasualties/oefu
fossil summit
timid jungle
Crew status of MSC FRANCESCA (IMO: 9401116), (one of two vessels seized by IRGC Navy yesterday):
The crew is reported safe and in Iranian custody. Nationalities confirmed so far
4 crew members, including the master, from Montenegro, per Montenegro's Minister of Maritime Affairs, Filip Radulović:
- https://fixupx.com/FilipRadulovic_/status/2046957392756166918/en
- https://fixupx.com/FilipRadulovic_/status/2046957394563923985/en
2 Croatian crew members, per Croatia's Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Gordan Grlić Radman:
5 Filipinos, per the Philippines Department of Migrant Workers, Secretary Hans Leo Cacdac:
A vessel of this size would typically carry a crew of ~ 20, so some nationalities likely remain undisclosed.
Crew status of EPAMINONDAS (IMO: 9153862), the second vessel seized by the IRGC Navy yesterday
Greek media outlets have received a statement from the vessel's manager, Technomar (owned by George Yroukos; the vessel was on charter to MSC): the Ukrainian and Filipino crew are safe.
Filipino media, citing official sources, report that 10 of the crew are from the Philippines:
Of note: The Greek Ministry of Shipping initially denied the seizure.
shadow vortex
Trump doubling down on the narrative that Iran is in a state of disarray. But if you go back to the JCPOA you find that the same thing happened, where Iran had its own deliberative process about engaging the US that lasted for a long time. Issue is there is no Obama administration to soothe their concerns, just a far-right US and Israel who are still poised to attack.
shadow vortex
Katz says Israel is “awaiting a green light from the United States, first and foremost to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty, the initiator of the extermination plan against Israel, and the successors of the successors of the leadership of the Iranian terror regime, and in addition to return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure.
He adds that “this time the attack will be different and deadly and will add devastating blows in the most painful places, following the enormous blows the Iranian terror regime has already suffered so far, that will shake and collapse its foundations.”
timid jungle
US Interdicts False Guyana-Flagged Tanker on the High Seas
M/T MAJESTIC X (IMO: 9198317), also known as PHONIX, was boarded in the Indian Ocean while its AIS destination was listed as Zhoushan, China. The vessel has changed course and it's current destination is unknown.
The vessel's owner/manager is registered in India.
Source: https://fixupx.com/DeptofWar/status/2047272909920444776/en
She was sanctioned in December 2024 as part of Iran's shadow fleet.
Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2734
Sketchy Boats entry: https://sketchy.boats/9198317
Marine Traffic: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:7583690/mmsi:750308000/imo:9198317/vessel:PHONIX
weary escarp
Air defenses were activated in Tehran, confirmation pending if this was an attack or not: https://aje.news/252c85?update=4516855
shadow vortex
https://x.com/cym27s/status/2047218062558982394?s=20
(Not Channel 12, Israel Hayom): The expectation is that within a few days, President Trump will renew strikes on Iran with an intensified wave lasting several days. After that, he is expected to declare the campaign over.
tiny path
https://x.com/i/status/2047393591144616341
A reminder that Trump's TS posts belong in #1330709161385922650. They are not reliable sources of information.
severe verge
WSJ reports that the US has used over 1k Tomahawks and 1.5k-2k air defense missiles in this war and it will take 6 years to replace them at current production. US munition stockpiles no longer cover contingency plans to defend Taiwan.
https://xcancel.com/alexbward/status/2047384875120894238 (one of the reporters)
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-complicates-contingency-plans-to-defend-taiwan-some-u-s-officials-say-4384f7c1
shadow vortex
fossil summit
wooden sphinx
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he wouldn’t use a nuclear weapon in Iran and that nobody should be allowed to use them.
“We don't need it. Why do I need it? Why would a stupid question like that be asked? Why would I use a nuclear weapon where we've totally in a very conventional way decimated them without it,” Trump said in a response to a question by PBS News’ Liz Landers.
“A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody,” he added.
weak pike
shadow vortex
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/24/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-lebanon
The US media seems to be peddling two narratives, that Qalibaf is out of negotiating team and that Araghchi is going to talk in Islamabad. But if you read Tasnim news' latest stories, they paint a very different picture.
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/24/3573983/araqchi-to-begin-tour-of-pakistan-oman-russia
In the Iranian narrative Araghchi is doing a tour to shore up regional relations and Qalibaf is still head of negotiations.
timid vine
How is it proof?
cunning ledge
How is it proof?
apologies. I was referring to a well-known trope about Russia in IR circles which doesn't belong in this server
fossil summit
The US media seems to be peddling two narratives, that Qalibaf is out of negotia...
to your point:
The statement made no mention of possible meetings between Araghchi and US officials arriving in Islamabad on Saturday.
fossil summit
I didn't see this posted yesterday, but let me know if I missed it somehow:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/23/aircraft-carrier-bush-iran/
archive: https://archive.is/2nZfp
shadow vortex
balmy trail
shadow vortex
https://aje.news/zji0ro?update=4519933
Very interesting. .
https://x.com/adamscochran/status/2047760473903296563?s=20
Was told by a former Qatari mediator that they could not tell if Pakistan was playing their own game or a US game. They have helped sell the narrative of impending talks in a patrern that closely matches White House's jawboning of oil markets.
As pointed out by ex JP Morgan chief strategist:
https://x.com/markoinny/status/2047638959975432404?s=20
cunning ledge
deleted
balmy trail
deleted
What’s the significance of this and how is it related to this conflict?
As interesting as mystery EAM’s are, there’s nothing but speculation surrounding them unless you’re a SIGINT whizz and can shed some light on this 😅
cunning ledge
What’s the significance of this and how is it related to this conflict?
If nothing happens, then it won't be related.
woeful oar
That is... not evidence.
shadow vortex
In the NYT, ex CIA director Bill Burns calls Trump's decision to attack Iran a "tragic" mistake and advises him on how to proceed. Useful for grasping at what kinds of approaches US may take if this crisis is defused short-term.
https://archive.is/w5buv
near grail
fossil summit
In an exchange with a reporter from the New York Post who is currently in Islamabad reporting on the talks, the president reportedly sent her a text message telling her to “Come home!!!”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cd7j1g94d1lt?post=asset%3A161ab440-8065-496c-b289-56b8a91313aa#post
void roost
https://xcancel.com/aishahhasnie/status/2048064757890945030
https://trumpstruth....
“My representatives” 😡
serene walrus
https://share.google/b4GXpXkGxJBXENGXe
NBC reports that an iranian F-5 managed to get a strike package onto the us base in kuwait at the start of the war
azure glade
Anyone got a non-paywall version? I'm curious about the F-5
woeful oar
https://share.google/b4GXpXkGxJBXENGXe
NBC reports that an iranian F-5 managed ...
May I politely suggest santizing your links? Not intending to mini mod but I just wanna make you aware that's a google tracking link. The real link is https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-caused-extensive-damage-us-military-bases-publicly-known-rcna331853
novel sail
Anyone got a non-paywall version? I'm curious about the F-5
It makes the F'up with the 3 F-15s much more reasonable atleast.
deep folio
nvm archive.is isnt working
bronze kayak
Nor is archive.PH
azure glade
Seems to be posted here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AirForce/comments/1svgd9i/an_iranian_air_force_f5_attacked_us_bases_during/
fossil summit
shadow vortex
Seems to be posted here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AirForce/comments/1svgd9i/an_i...
Was removed... what was it?
shadow vortex
Iranian MP:
"Pakistan is a good friend and neighbor of ours, but it is not a suitable intermediary for negotiations and lacks the necessary credibility for mediation. They always take Trump's interests into account and do not say a word against the Americans' wishes. For example, they are unwilling to tell the world that America first accepted Pakistan's proposal but then went back on its word. They do not say that the Americans had commitments regarding the issue of Lebanon or the blocked assets but failed to fulfill them. A mediator must be impartial, not always leaning to one side."
https://x.com/EbrahimRezaei14/status/2048390709862871243
Debunking some more myths Trump admin are repeating...
https://x.com/rrghadi01/status/2048258350761013332?s=20
woven epoch
Tasnim has published several images of US/Israeli cluster munitions and submunitions
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/26/3575417/irgc-destroys-three-us-bunker-buster-bombs-in-northern-iran
azure glade
Was removed... what was it?
The NBC article
serene walrus
Debunking some more myths Trump admin are repeating...
https://x.com/rrghadi01/s...
Hasnt iranian oil output been having issues over the past few issues, mostly related to sanctions and also their power outages?
I somehow doubt iran is able to escape the effects of strikes on their facilities if its estimated by the french that the gulf states have a 3 to 5 year recovery time to reach previous output level if the unlikely outcome of the war ending right now happened
glad vector
I somehow doubt iran is able to escape the effects of strikes on their facilitie...
I read the discussion as being about "geological" production as in "is it physically possible to pump up oil" at the same rate as before.
So Reza is basically saying the Trump claim that the Iranian soil got so scared by maximum pressure it swallowed the oil permanently is false
shadow vortex
I somehow doubt iran is able to escape the effects of strikes on their facilitie...
He is not talking about strikes on facilities. He is talking about Trump, Bessent and other admin officials claiming that if Iran is forced to curtail production, it will cause permanent damage to their oil infrastructure due to the pressure dynamics of extracting oil. In reality they have curtailed production many times without such damage occurring, though perhaps not to the same extent. As for the GCC states, what I've read is it would take mere weeks to restart production at facilities that were spared the fighting.
carmine hollow
The three to five year reinstatement estimate was for the major Qatari gas facility, not oil production more generally.
The piece from The Conversation touches on why gas facilities are different.
fossil summit
Semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted Iranian health minister Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi as saying that 240 attacks on medical facilities were recorded while the US and Israel were striking Iran, damaging about 50 hospitals and about 50 emergency centres.
fossil summit
While White House officials claim Iran presented the U.S. with a “new” proposal over the weekend and pushed this narrative through its preferred media outlets, the Iranian official said the characterization was false. Trump claimed Iran softened its stance over the weekend, but not enough for a deal. Ahmadian said there has been a recent Iranian shift, but it is toward a clearer set of conditions for resuming negotiations, not acceding to American demands on its nuclear program. “There are changes, as I understand,” he said. “The main change is for Iran to insist on the stop of the war regionally. That’s pivotal in Iran agreeing to discuss other issues.”
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-war-trump-negotiations-munitions-markets-midterms
serene walrus
> While White House officials claim Iran presented the U.S. with a “new” proposa...
I don't know if i trust drop site's framing especially since the irgc and foreign ministry did publically beef. We'll have to see what any agreements look like
And there is reporting about iran offering trading a mutual lifting of the blockade which i think is a tell about where Iran's position is (i.e. not as stable as they want to present)
Iran offer: Clear Hormuz Strait, postpone nuke talks if blockade, war end
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/27/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-rubio.html
shadow vortex
I don't know if i trust drop site's framing especially since the irgc and foreig...
Do you mean when IRGC rebuked Araghchi?
serene walrus
Do you mean when IRGC rebuked Araghchi?
Yes, and the negotiation team as a whole iirc
shadow vortex
woeful oar
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-vance-hegseth-tru...
Is there any way to read the full article?
carmine hollow
fossil summit
shadow vortex
Interesting point about the delegation Iran sent to the first day of negotiations. May not have been in exoectation of a real process so much as a show of unity.
https://x.com/i/status/2048818783918100964
weak pike
I didn't realise quite how many civilian / commercial / grey zone speedboats use the SOH.
"Here in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s mosquito fleet is winning the blockade.
Despite the loss of its conventional navy, Tehran is finding it easier to hold the world to ransom than expected – as our reporter witnessed.
It is here that the speedboats play a vital role. Most of those racing past us are innocuous enough. Some are smugglers, others licensed, most operating in the grey zone between.
With petrol in Iran costing less than half the price than in the Gulf, fuel smuggling is lucrative. Boats cross laden with plastic drums, then return with supermarket goods and electronics. Larger vessels carry second-hand cars, though many now stay clear for fear of mines.
For coastal communities outside cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Muscat, this trade is an economic lifeline.
It also provides perfect cover. IRGC speedboats and fishing dhows blend seamlessly into the traffic, able to drop mines over the stern without specialised equipment. In the haze, spotting them is harder still. Some intelligence estimates suggest Iran used dozens of such vessels to lay as many as 150 mines in a 48-hour period in early April.
It is hard to see them and harder to stop them,” one Western defence official says. “For the moment, the best solution for clearing the strait is diplomacy."
azure glade
By early April do they mean before or after the ceasefire? Because if the former, that's truly incredible that the U.S. didn't have aircraft staged to interdict them. A few Apaches, A-10s or Reapers could have shut all that down. At the cost of hitting civilian craft, perhaps.
tiny path
By early April do they mean before or after the ceasefire? Because if the former...
That's speculation, right?
timid vine
By early April do they mean before or after the ceasefire? Because if the former...
If its a swarm of small boat aircraft would not work. You would need a missile per ship. The math does not math.
deep folio
If its a swarm of small boat aircraft would not work. You would need a missile p...
wouldnt cannons be enough?
HITTRON in the US coast guard is able to disable go fasts with helicopters and barret 50 cals
balmy trail
wouldnt cannons be enough?
Factor in the number of units in the water, the speed at which these units would be moving and return fire from one or multiple of said units. It could become a cluster fuck really fast.
deep folio
return fire would be limited to small arms
they havent been mounting missiles on these boats, yet
they could easily bring manpads with them though
balmy trail
they havent been mounting missiles on these boats, yet
How do you know? There likely is boats in their arsenal capable of having missile launch systems retrofitted or mounted where existing hardware sits.
deep folio
im saying we havent seen them
balmy trail
We also haven’t seen them mining the straight, but there’s mines in there
tiny path
We also haven’t seen them mining the straight, but there’s mines in there
Who's the 'we' here?
balmy trail
Who's the 'we' here?
The general public, it’s not like there’s been videos of a mining operation being carried out, doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened. So the whole concept of ‘we haven’t seen missiles on boats’ doesn’t mean they don’t exist out there.
And as the link I shared shows, Iranian Naval assets do have missile capabilities.
azure glade
If its a swarm of small boat aircraft would not work. You would need a missile p...
It's exactly what attack helicopters are for. Cannons, rockets, missiles. An Apache could destroy dozens of boats per sortie.
tiny path
Y'all. This isn't a discussion board. There are other places on the Internet for that.
If you have a point to make, include external sources.
timid jungle
US Marines board cargo ship in blockade enforcement - lets it go after search
https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2049171777926877463/en
U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/V Blue Star III, a commercial ship suspected of attempting to transit to Iran in violation of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, in the Arabian Sea, April 28, 2026. **U.S. forces released the vessel after conducting a search and confirming the ship’s voyage would not include an Iranian port call. **
The VOI is likely the M/V BLUE STAR III (IMO: 9133147) with Omani manager/owner per Equasis.
Maritime OSINT pro tip: Life preservers and life rafts are stenciled with vessel names...useful corroborating identifiers to look out for
serene walrus
midnight horizon
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranians-feel-the-pain-as-their-economy-de...
Hi! Since there is no automatic preview, please provide a short description.
serene walrus
ah I thought it dropped one.
[...]
The war has thrown around one million people out of work directly and another million indirectly, according to early estimates cited by Gholamhossein Mohammadi, an official at Iran’s Labor and Social-Affairs ministry. That is a significant portion of the roughly 25 million people who are normally employed in Iran.
The cost of living has soared, with the annual inflation rate reaching 67% in the month through mid-April from the same period a year earlier, according to Iran’s central bank. The subsidized price of red meat, which was mostly imported through sea routes, has gone up to the equivalent of around $3.60 a pound, beyond the reach of most in a country where the minimum wage is around $130 a month.```
marsh moss
Trump Tells Aides to Prepare for Extended Blockade of Iran
The president prefers decisive victories, but none of the available options provides him with a swift exit from the conflict
void roost
Hegseth and Caine are testifying in a hearing now. Watch on cspan
fossil summit
Behind the scenes: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge said.
shadow vortex
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2049556216318185919?s=20
Interesting that Trump has scaled back from "bridge day" to much more modest threats for a return to hits on military targets.
floral dawn
void roost
timid jungle
https://www.threads.com/@cnn/post/DXu-ESDALze?
Appreciate CNN and you StantheMan for given some consideration/awareness to the plight of seafarers caught up in this conflict 🙏
fossil summit
https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-04-30-2026#0000019d-de91-d212-adbd-deb799850000
Trump floats a new plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Under the plan, the United States would continue its blockade on Iranian ports, while coordinating with allies to impose higher costs on Iran’s attempts to subvert the free flow of energy, according to a senior administration official.
sterile vector
Is this source considered trustworthy? https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
woeful oar
I do not see a singular source and it started playing music(?) on my phone so I'm gonna say no.
timid jungle
Is this source considered trustworthy? https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
As Craig pointed out, the lack of source attribution makes evaluation difficult.
Our dashboard aggregates data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive picture of the situation, updated every hour.
What multiple sources? It is a mystery. 👻
If you're looking for a dashboad, Windward AI is legit maritime intel/awareness company. They offer: https://insights.windward.ai/
Not a dashboard, but valuable as a source: The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) publishes regular operational summaries.
JMIC operates alongside UKMTO, which is in direct contact with participating vessels via a voluntary reporting scheme. so their picture is built from firsthand reporting from the vessels as well as partner navy and coalition intelligence.
https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories/2026
Most recent (30 April) :
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-039-jmic-advisory-note-30-april.pdf
⚠️ Note: JMIC only shares info on transits of vessels transiting while broadcasting AIS
timid jungle
This risks stating the obvious, but It's worth keeping the Strait of Hormuz transit numbers in context:
Strait of Hormuz:
o Historical average: **~138 vessels/day**
o 28 April: 11 transits
o 29 April: 16 transits
Source: 30 April JMIC Update
A 45% single-day increase sounds significant, and it will look that way on a dashboard or in a headline. But 16 transits is 88% below the historical daily average. Against 138 vessels per day, the strait is not open.
fossil summit
This risks stating the obvious, but It's worth keeping the Strait of Hormuz tran...
these are also vessels that have been sitting for months, right?
tiny path
It would be an indirect indicator, but the Lloyd's Maritime Association's Joint War Committee could give insight on when ships consider transit to be safe enough again.
https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/
If they're hearing that ships don't think it's safe to transit and then JWC is informing insurers that ships transiting are at elevated risk of attack; that'd be de facto closure of the straight.
timid jungle
these are also vessels that have been sitting for months, right?
Per Windward's dashboard, approximately 900 vessels are currently being tracked in the Gulf, many of which have been effectively stranded there since the outbreak of the conflict.
smoky pulsar
Air defences activated in Tehran
timid jungle
Paying the SoH toll risks OFAC sanctions
Released earlier this week (28 April):
- Are "toll" payments to Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz authorized?
No. Payments to the Government of Iran or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), directly or indirectly, for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would not be authorized for U.S. persons, including U.S. financial institutions, or for U.S.-owned or -controlled foreign entities.
**Such payments also create significant sanctions exposure for non-U.S. persons. **Specifically, foreign financial institutions and other non-U.S. persons risk exposure to sanctions for engaging in certain transactions or activities involving designated or otherwise blocked persons. This includes the Government of Iran and the IRGC, which is sanctioned pursuant to several authorities, including nonproliferation and counterterrorism sanctions authorities, and is designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organizatio
weak pike
RAF troops shot down more than 100 Iranian drones and missiles fired at a coalition Middle East base.
fossil summit
thin nest
tiny path
https://fixupx.com/ProfessorPape/status/2050218901980553678
- The video isn't dated. Is there any open source way to verify that the planes in that video were in the air "this morning"?
- Is there any evidence that, assuming #1 can be corroborated, that the number of flights into the region are "massive" compared to an average day?
woeful oar
Also we've seen airlifts like this for weeks now so I'm not sure what "imminent" is supposed to mean in this relative time frame.
undone bison
Look at the source of this claim
woeful oar
Look at the source of this claim
I am looking but I'm not really sure what credibility he's claiming here. A lot of what's on his account seems unsubstantiated (such as the hypersonic missile claim) and looks possibly formatted by AI (use of em dashes where they don't make much sense, the arrows in every post, ect)
fossil summit
It looks like a political science professor, but no idea if it’s a fake account? https://political-science.uchicago.edu/directory/Robert-Pape
It doesn’t seem like it to me.
tiny path
Pape has come up a few times before on the server and the information provided has been dubious at best.
Everyone is free to share what they believe are reliable sources, but the credibility of the post starts from the person posting it and is backed/diminshed by who the cite as a source.
timid jungle
Pape has come up a few times before on the server and the information provided h...
To be fair, he is followed by one Trevor Ball of Bellingcat, Alex Ward (NatSec report at the Wall Street Journal), Idrees Ali (Reuters national Security correspondent), and a number of other top shelf security analysts/reporters.
midnight horizon
That doesn't say why they follow him. A lot of analysts and reporters follow Trump.
undone bison
I am looking but I'm not really sure what credibility he's claiming here. A lot ...
War Monitor.
waxen rock
That doesn't say *why* they follow him. A lot of analysts and reporters follow T...
pape is a credentialed guy and arguably an expert on geopolitics:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Pape
he's best known for theorizing about escalation traps, and has been all over the american media since the war began calling it one:
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/
but his theories are just one perspective, and he's not an OSINT expert.
timid jungle
This is start to drift into a tangent, but he's the director of the University of Chicago's Project on Security and Threats.
The Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST) is a non-partisan research center at the University of Chicago dedicated to advancing scholarship on international politics, security, and trade that advances peace and prosperity. CPOST brings together leading scholars at the University of Chicago conducting rigorous, data-driven research on issues of national and international importance to provide critical knowledge to policymakers, scholars, and the public.
I don't know if that particular post is any good, but he's not some rando posting without any domain knowledge.
thin nest
Sorry - I posted and had to drop offline. I might've removed it, because the initial questions about the source were good. (won't remove now, since there's some discussion about it that seems useful) I'll add he does not seem like a nut, but I think he's just speculating a bit here based on his area of expertise, but without really being an expert on this specific type of air traffic. (General consensus seems to be this was NOT an increase and has been like this for a few days).
woeful oar
Oh yeah I'm not second guessing his credentials to be clear, I'm just stating that there does appear to be a lack of substantiation to the claim that an attack is imminent.
vagrant horizon
I've not got any shareable evidence like video etc, but I do live near RAF Fairford and there's been a lot of B1s flying over today - at least 8 flights in an evening, which is unusually active (1-2 a day is the most we usually see, and not every day), all with transponders off.
shadow vortex
To get an idea of this guy's positions: https://x.com/nick_jstewart
Indistinguishable from the administration, and if you scroll back to the Biden admin, indistinguishable from Israel's positions.
X
shadow vortex
Here's one of Obama administration's most senior intelligence officials calling out Mike Pompeo's decision as CIA chief to released documents that paint Iran as close to Al Qaida through the FDD in 2017.
They have clearly played a long game in forming Trump's perceptions of Iran and the way to approach it.
https://x.com/i/status/925792112880300035
tiny path
Here's one of Obama administration's most senior intelligence officials calling ...
Do you have a link to the 2017 article that you're referencing?
shadow vortex
Article?
tiny path
This part:
Mike Pompeo's decision as CIA chief to released documents that paint Iran as close to Al Qaida through the FDD in 2017.
undone bison
timid vine
How trustworthy is this analysis? Bin Laden was Sunni, Iran is majority Shia. Sunnis and Shia are bitter enemies. And both the religious leadership of Iran and Bin Laden were extremists.
I am highly sceptical of this.
fervent birch
How trustworthy is this analysis? Bin Laden was Sunni, Iran is majority Shia. Su...
Are you talking about the analysis that OBL/AQ and Iran were close or that the docs were released to paint that picture for Trump (the original linked Twitter thread)?
waxen rock
How trustworthy is this analysis? Bin Laden was Sunni, Iran is majority Shia. Su...
the point of all of this is that an iran hawk is being detailed from the state department to steve witkoff's office.
(but even prior, it didn't seem like the iranians wanted to negotiate with witkoff)
timid vine
Are you talking about the analysis that OBL/AQ and Iran were close or that the d...
The analysis.
serene walrus
I don't know how much i believe this analysis
timid jungle
https://archive.is/uwlS0
I don't know how much i believe this analysis
Are there particular points/claims that you're questioning?
serene walrus
Are there particular points/claims that you're questioning?
Specifically how spilit Iranian factionalism is
Also it reads kinda similar to how earlier Russian sanctions would force them to the table which hasn't happened, though the us response now is harsher than on Russia
timid jungle
UKMTO - Bulker attacked by small craft west of Sirik, Iran; crew reported safe.
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 11NM west of Sirik, Iran.
The Master of a northbound bulk carrier has reported being attacked by multiple small
craft. All crew reported safe and no environmental impact reported.
Source: https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260503-ukmto_warning_attack-050-26.pdf?
serene walrus
https://fxtwitter.com/gbrew24/status/2050967114790375630?s=20
Brew appears to be some kind of analyst but im not super familiar with that outfit
FxTwitter
Saudi state media is also pushing this narrative too
fossil summit
https://fxtwitter.com/gbrew24/status/2050967114790375630?s=20
Brew appears to b...
https://xcancel.com/gbrew24/status/2051002741934232005
if this narrative is to be believed, from this updated post:
Trump told Reuters that the proposal was "not acceptable."
timid jungle
https://archive.is/uwlS0
I don't know how much i believe this analysis
The WSJ on the blockade's effectiveness:
Some 44 commercial vessels working for Iran have been ordered to turn around or return to port, U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, said Thursday. There is no evidence any Iranian oil cargo has crossed the U.S. blockade and reached Chinese customers or other buyers, according to Kpler, a commodities-data company. [emphasis added]
TankerTrackers asserts that at least one tanker has evaded the blockade and has reached the Far East. While they have a track record monitoring vessels that sail dark (operating with AIS disabled), without sharing their evidence, the claim is uncorroborated.
https://fixupx.com/TankerTrackers/status/2050939017944858838/en
Note: the blockade was declared April 13. The thread also covers vessels carrying Iranian oil that departed before the blockade took effect. The wording in the thread is potentially confusing on this point.
https://fixupx.com/TankerTrackers/status/2050948359007961116/en
shadow vortex
## UKMTO - Bulker attacked by small craft west of Sirik, Iran; crew reported saf...
Looks like Iran is making ships go deeper back into the Gulf... related to this?
near grail
aren't Trump posts with no evidence more suited for #1330709161385922650 ?
raven stag
Perhaps but it would still be announcing a new phase of the conflict
I'd say it works here as a heads up of intent like the blockade announcement
near grail
I didn't realize it was a whole page long #1330709161385922650 message
raven stag
Scratch that got mixed up with blockade tweet
waxen rock
https://fxtwitter.com/gbrew24/status/2050967114790375630?s=20
Brew appears to b...
says he's quoting al jazeera and al arabiya but doesn't provide any links. what he says doesn't seem to match either of their explainers:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/05/03/iran-softens-stance-agrees-to-include-nuclear-file-in-us-talks-sources-say
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/whats-irans-14-point-proposal-to-end-the-war-and-will-trump-accept-it
tiny path
Looks like Iran is making ships go deeper back into the Gulf... related to this?
We also discourage posting screenshots without providing a link to the source. @near grail provided that here #1330709161385922650 message
raven stag
Okay, Project Freedom is just ships contacting the USN to find out where the mines are with the USN telling the ships where is safe to travel
The new effort, which Trump dubbed “Project Freedom,” is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said.
near grail
He described the move as a “humanitarian gesture” on behalf of the U.S., Middle Eastern countries and, in particular, Iran, without elaborating on what role the Islamic Republic would play.
It seems like another unilateral Trump statement that... has not consulted with the other side.
Curious to see what will happen when it "starts"
timid jungle
CENTCOM Press Release
fossil summit
Hm. Im not sure how to prove this, but happy to give it a shot if anyone has ideas about how to find what the market algorithms are using as an input, though I think they’re proprietary, no? You can definitely show correlations between these announcements and movements in large funds to Trump and Centcom’s announcements. This is even if nothing has actually changed about the condition of the strait. This post seems like an attempt to get oil prices to drop again and the market to keep rising on news that the strait will be open again whether or whether not that’s the case.
sullen escarp
Isn't that basically just saying that markets move based on someone important saying they will do/not do something. Which is ... obviously true?
fossil summit
Yeah nevermind. It would just be trying to prove that Trump/centcom know (without speculating) that they’re doing this on purpose.
sullen escarp
But again, a politician making decisions and statements to try to calm a market isn't new, surely?
keen spear
Do you mean insider trading, market activity in advance of announcements as proof of intent?
balmy trail
https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/2051091640568234365?s=20
https://aje.news/t7e6pf?update=4542713
The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations agency says a tanker off the coast of the UAE’s Fujairah has come under attack.
It reported “being hit by unknown projectiles”, UKMTO said.
“All crew are reported safe. No environmental impact reported.”
The attack comes hours after the UKMTO reported that a bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small craft off the Iranian coast, about 11 nautical miles (18km) west of Sirik.
fossil summit
Do you mean insider trading, market activity in advance of announcements as proo...
No, I mean lying about actual progress to calm markets. But as someone else pointed out maybe this is nothing new.
raven stag
Iran claims to have attacked a US warship
midnight salmon
https://aje.news/t7e6pf
Iran claims to have attacked a US warship
Axios reporter: US official denies https://xcancel.com/BarakRavid/status/2051248463539519936
glad vector
timid jungle
ADNOC statement on attack on oil tanker BARAKAH (IMO: 9902615) :
Per Equasis, ADNOC is the vessel's owner and manager.
CENTCOM denial of claimed attack on US warship
fossil summit
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/04/trump-iran-strait-hormuz-operation
archive: https://archive.is/iqPDv
timid jungle
CENTCOM - two or more destroyers supporting latest US SoH effort
https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2051274596570050755/en
I'm not aware of any corroborating information about the vessels involved or their location.
Iranian crew detained by US transferred to Pakistan
The crew of the MV TOUSKA, an Iranian container vessel fired upon and disabled by the USS Spruance on April 19 after failing to heed warnings, has been transferred to Pakistan following a US Marine boarding part siezed the vessel.
Source: Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister of Pakistan
https://fixupx.com/MIshaqDar50/status/2051208436705362426/en
FixupX
sinful pagoda
Per Reuters, Fujairah in the UAE has been attacked by Iran
Claimed footage. Should be easy to geolocate
https://t.me/wfwitness/92346
sinful pagoda
Claimed footage. Should be easy to geolocate
https://t.me/wfwitness/92346
This channel is reporting air raid alarms in Dubai, Abu Dhabi too, besides Fujairah (which can be hard to verify as alert doesn't imply impact and emirati authorities really crack down on footage)
sinful pagoda
Statement from the UAE MoD on four missiles claimed to have been launched against them. Interpret it as you will
void roost
US destroys six Iranian small boats, shoots down missiles, drones, US admiral says http://reut.rs/4djHK0p
(Edited)
near grail
The only denial I'm seeing is that an American warship was hit, unless you're referring to another one: #1473081625775706295 message
But there was no immediate sign of any sudden surge of ships attempting to cross. And the explosion reported aboard the South Korean merchant ship HMM Namu in the strait was likely to persuade commercial shippers it was still unsafe.
The UAE, meanwhile, reported a fire at an oil installation in its port of Fujairah following an Iranian drone attack. Fujairah lies beyond the strait, making it one of the few export routes for Middle East oil that does require passing through it.
serene walrus
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3ml254qdf2s2x
Can anyone find the original post?
near grail
FixupX
timid jungle
Martin Kellyy, Head of Advisory at EOS Risk Group, posts audio of what he states is an IRGC broadcast declaring ( likely via maritime VHF) the Strait of Hormuz closed (again).
https://fixupx.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2051285868267069946/en
sinful pagoda
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3ml254qdf2s2x
Can anyone ...
I see nothing in the Kan news website, so if it was said there, it was on broadcast
More footage from Fujairah
near grail
Noting that US Navy escorts were not thought to be involved by officials talking to WSJ yesterday:
#1473081625775706295 message
soft moth
Escalation again
tiny path
Escalation again
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-fujairah-says-f...
Note this was posted earlier in the thread #1473081625775706295 message
soft moth
Ah missed it thanks
There’s also reports out of Oman of a residential building attacked, no details on what weapon was used or where it originated from. But it follows the Iranian attack on Fujairah.
https://fxtwitter.com/ona_eng/status/2051336062912561229?s=46
FxTwitter
timid jungle
Statement from the UAE MoD on four missiles claimed to have been launched agains...
Updated statement from UAE Ministry of Defense - injuries reported
The Ministry of Defence announced that on May 4, 2026, the UAE air defence systems engaged 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 UAV’s launched from Iran, resulting in 3 moderate injuries. [emphasis added]
sinful pagoda
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3ml254qdf2s2x
Can anyone ...
Ok. So Haaretz for instance picked it up. But it seems more of a warning on "having the right to respond" which while it is escalatory compared with other statements as far as I can tell, it is intentionally ambiguous
timid jungle
US DoD shares maritime operational picture covering the ceasefire period
The Joint Staff graphic depicts vessel strikes, tanker/cargo groupings, the US blockade line, and basing footprint across region. The timeline runs from 7 April to 5 May.
Of note: the timeline includes an entry for 23 April "Iran lays more mines in the SoH."
Has this been previously disclosed on the record by a US official? I'm not aware of a public statement confirming additional minelaying.... would be curious if anyone has a sourced reference.
fossil summit
## US DoD shares maritime operational picture covering the ceasefire period
The...
Seems like this was an axios headline: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/iran-strait-hormuz-mines-trump
fossil summit
X
UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats.
MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV's
timid jungle
JMIC advisory republishes yesterday's USNAVCENT NCAGS advisory for transiting SoH
The advisory directs traffic south of the normal traffic separation scheme through Oman's territorial waters.
Due to anticipated traffic volume, coordination with Oman authorities via VHF channel 16 is advised to maintain safety of navigation.
Transit via or in close proximity to the [normal] Traffic Separation Scheme should be considered extremely hazardous due the presence of mines that have not been fully surveyed and mitigated.
Source: https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/jmic-advisory-note-004-26.pdf
Some big maritime names don't seem optimistic
https://fixupx.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2051624560202539116/en
https://fixupx.com/MikeSchuler/status/2051671212435316997/en
timid jungle
Michelle Weiss Bockmann (formerly of Lloyds List Intelligence, now with Windward AI) reports that a handful of l Iranian tankers have evaded the US blockade thus far.
https://fixupx.com/Michellewb_/status/2051556970620920110/en
Separately, Tanker Trackers has been cited by Bloomberg in regards tothe HUGO, one of the vessels Bockmann mentions.
Visualization of the rerouting that Bockmann has observed:
Instead of:
- Transiting via the Malacca Strait (indcated by # 1)
- Some Iranian linked vessels are switching to the Lombok Strait (indicated by # 2)
timid jungle
IRGC afilliated media reports two civillian vessels targeted by US
https://fixupx.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/2051584466234085565/en
📑 Translated from language_fa
🔴 Military Source: The U.S. had fired upon 2 small civilian boats, not IRGC boats 🔹The U.S. Army's claim of targeting 6 Iranian speedboats is untrue, and none of the IRGC's combat vessels were hit.
https://fixupx.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/2051584467458797795/en
📑 Translated from language_fa
🔹Investigations were conducted regarding the nature of this news from local sources, which revealed that today, American occupying forces attacked two small boats carrying civilian cargo that were traveling from Khassab on Oman's coast toward Iran's coast, opened fire, destroyed their boats, and martyred 5 civilian passengers on board
Third video spoilered due to depiction of injuries. The video contains a interview with an individual who is presented as a survivor of the attack.
|| https://fixupx.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/2051652556997210165/en||
weak pike
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2051694357862887917?s=20
Quite a few ships in the background of the image. I also wonder if the Viper is carrying another pair of APKWS rocket pods on the starboard wing.
X
timid jungle
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2051694357862887917?s=20
Quite a few ships in the ...
Great photo!
timid jungle
Cargo ship struck by unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz
A verified source reported a cargo vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile.
Environmental impact is unknown at time of report.
weak pike
timid jungle
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/05/iran-war-trump-hormuz-ships-peace-talks
Original source for the suspension of Project Freedom, the three-day US CENTCOM effort to facilitate commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Note the blockade itself remains in force; only the transit operation is paused, pending negotiations:
|| https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116524418935002706 ||
Link spoilered in deference to those who'd rather not see posts from the US President.
void roost
Two U.S. commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had U.S. military security teams aboard as Iran launched attacks against them during the transit, according to two U.S. officials.
glad vector
misplaced this when I posted yesterday https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bessent-urges-china-step-up-diplomacy-iran-ahead-trump-xi-summit-2026-05-04/
carmine hollow
Two U.S. commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had U.S. m...
Sal Marcogliano, who has extensive personal experience with naval/maritime coordination anticipated that arrangement in this video, which is good on the rather complicated logistics involved in such an operation
https://youtu.be/-7VBPsa2zOA?si=8yZ5SwSUGo9AdZ22
void roost
Exclusive: Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites since the war began, according to a Post analysis.
The amount of destruction is far larger than what was previously reported.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/?
near grail
smoky pulsar
timid jungle
US CENTCOM: F/A-18 Super Hornet Disables MT HANSA with 20mm Cannon
HASNA (IMO: IMO 9212917) Links:
MarineTraffic
Sketchy Boats
OFAC Sanctions
timid jungle
Maritime Civilian Harm: 8 Seafarer's Injured in Yesterday's Attack on the Container Ship SAN ANTONIO
Eight crew members of the San Antonio were wounded, the UN’s International Maritime Organization said, in the 32nd such incident since the war began.
France was not specifically targeted, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon said, adding the crew were from the Philippines.
A maritime security source said the ship was struck by an Iranian projectile while attempting a night transit near Oman.
https://www.reuters.com/world/cma-cgm-container-ship-hit-strait-hormuz-injuring-crew-2026-05-06/
timid jungle
Sentinel-2 Imagery Possibly Shows US Blockade Assets in Northern Arabian Sea (6 May)
Sentinel-2 resolution limits positive vessel ID - treat accordingly
https://fixupx.com/MT_Anderson/status/2052132241393033651/en
fossil summit
Iran reviewing US proposal to end war, though key demands remain unaddressed
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-says-it-wants-comprehensive-agreement-with-us-2026-05-06/
balmy trail
fossil summit
shadow vortex
Extremely curious
https://fixupx.com/andreas_krieg/status/2052297981143978144?s=20
shadow vortex
Remarkable numbers:
https://x.com/John_Hudson/status/2052408111298662568?s=20
serene walrus
Remarkable numbers:
https://x.com/John_Hudson/status/2052408111298662568?s=20
I'd be somewhat skeptical of all those assessments especially from anonymous defense officials, they tend to be all over the map as we saw with reporting on the Ukraine war
indigo nova
It's an assessment delivered to the white house https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles
shadow vortex
I'd be somewhat skeptical of all those assessments especially from anonymous def...
That's fair, but it is valuable as a radically different picture to the Trump admin's claims early in the war. The gap between "we destroyed 90% of their launchers" and "they still have 75%" tells us something.
serene walrus
oh yeah I don't trust the administration's claims
near grail
It's an assessment delivered to the white house https://www.washingtonpost.com/n...
archived: https://archive.ph/yF5Hc
serene walrus
serene walrus
Can anyone find this? I went to Mehr News' site but can't seem to find it: https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3mlbxxwdzhc2b
tiny path
Only seeing reports of explosions, no one yet willing to cite a cause. WANA mentions the rumors but doesn't confirm them:
https://wanaen.com/explosions-reported-near-qeshm-and-bandar-abbas-amid-conflicting-claims/
serene walrus
NYT does report along these lines but frames it as Iran blaming the UAE: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/07/world/iran-trump-hormuz-peace-deal/fbf580c8-4f58-5329-b037-dbee17511aca?smid=url-share
(because the link is a bit wonk, the attempted link to post in question:)
fossil summit
that is some intense gaslighting
serene walrus
that is some intense gaslighting
It is odd that the Iranians thought the UAE was the ones who bombed them though, or at least were willing to just put that to print.
near grail
Seeing how CENTCOM has already tried to hide & minimize reported damage in this conflict, curious how/if we will be able to validate these claims.
serene walrus
Seeing how CENTCOM has already tried to hide & minimize reported damage in this ...
when the ships pull into repair, we will see if there's hole in the side of them
near grail
if there's any significant damage
serene walrus
The Iranians have also not been reliable on their kill claims either, they've claimed F-35 shootdowns and used fucky footage; iirc they also claimed that they put hits on the Ford but afaik when she pulled in for repairs there wasn't any evidence of anything other than the laundry fire the ford reported had happened
near grail
neither side has been wholly reliable reporting their military accomplishments (nuclear stockpiles, naval dominance, etc.)
just voicing my curiosity how soon (if ever) we'll find out if US ships were damaged from this.
balmy trail
Yeah it’s very hard to verify as both sides are utterly untrustworthy with reporting, here’s a little more on it though. Missile attacks allegedly forced a retreat of U.S naval assets after sustaining damage.
timid jungle
CENTCOM statement on US actions during today's hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.
Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes.
near grail
https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/2051768861700116911?s=20
reading more details on their "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" here:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/07/middleeast/iran-hormuz-rules-warime-gains-intl
shadow vortex
https://xcancel.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2052487874352660530#m
Didn't they say at the start of "Project Freedom" that they would send ships through and "blow the hell out of" anyone who attacks them from the Iranian coast?
In the meantime they have also tried to rope in other actors to build pressure on Iran. Egypt apparently defending UAE skies now.
tiny path
Didn't they say at the start of "Project Freedom" that they would send ships thr...
That seems like something that could be found through an open source, especially if someone used the term 'hell'.
Any luck finding that?
undone bison
Didn't they say at the start of "Project Freedom" that they would send ships thr...
Lindsey Graham https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/lindsey-graham-trump-iran-warning-b2934366.html
gray pawn
shadow vortex
Iran's FM implies that missile production and launcher production are still ongoing:
https://x.com/araghchi/status/2052703834888360089?s=20
X
fossil summit
The UAE says its air defences engaged with 2 ballistic missiles and 3 drones from Iran on Friday, causing three injuries.
timid jungle
IRGC Navy Appears to Seize US Sanctioned Iranian Affiliated Tanker
IRIB News reports seizure of the oil tanker OCEAN KOI (IMO: 9255933 - renamed in March 2026 JIN LI per equasis)
Maritime Intelligence firm Tanker Trackers notes that the vessel is US sanctioned and has been observed regularly transporting Iranian oil to China - basically suggesting Iran seized one of it's own affiliated ships.
The Barbados-flagged OCEAN KOI (IMO 9255933), owned by Marshall Island-based Ocean Kudos Shipping Co Ltd, has transported millions of barrels of Iranian high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and condensate since May 2025. The OCEAN KOI has operated as part of the Iranian shadow fleet since at least 2020.
Source: US Department of Treasury February 25, 2026 Press Release
balmy trail
timid jungle
Iranian state adjacent media:
https://fixupx.com/Tasnimbrk/status/2052737646745485658/en
https://fixupx.com/Tasnimbrk/status/2052741806903759286/en
Mehr News link
Fox New's Jen Griffin has reported about additional US strikes on tankers attempting to run the blockade:
https://fixupx.com/jengriffinfnc/status/2052734867629085065/en
balmy trail
English translation:
🔴 Scattered clashes in the Strait of Hormuz
🔹For the past hour, sporadic clashes have been taking place between Iranian armed forces and American vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
🔹In this regard, Fox News, citing an American official, claimed that the US military today attacked Iranian tankers that were trying to break the blockade.
🔹Last night, the Iranian armed forces thwarted an attempt by American forces to attack an Iranian tanker.
@Farsna
timid jungle
US Releases Statement and Video about Iranian Blockade Runner Strikes
https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2052751945329242281/en
Those are rather concerning videos in terms of the crew's welfare.
Per CENTCOM , the vessel's targeted are the SEA STAR III (IMO: 9569205) and SEVDA (IMO: 9172040), both Iranian flagged.
Both OFAC sanctioned:
https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx?id=15076
https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx?id=15077
timid jungle
CENTCOM blockade update:
Can anyone make out the vessel name or other text on the stern of the tanker at ~0:03 seconds?
NASA FIRMS is showing some atypical thermal readings in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours...these locations don't normally produce signatures when I checked against other 24-hour periods.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2026-05-07;l:fires_all,street;@56.5,26.5,9.0z
undone bison
I read that as stream
timid jungle
I read that as stream
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
STREAM (IMO: 9569633)
shadow vortex
Amit Segal once again reports the thinking in Israel's decisionmaking circles as tough choices loom:
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2052378289193222239?s=20
A severe dispute has erupted—and still persists—between the army and the Mossad over the ultimate goal of the war in Iran. The IDF views the removal of uranium from Iranian territory as the ultimate achievement. The Mossad, however, believes the objective is toppling the regime. Even today, contrary to the retrospective cover-your-ass culture prevalent in our region, the Mossad insists on this. While the IDF settled for the amorphous definition of “creating the conditions to topple the regime,” the Mossad simply dropped the first four words.
The practical expression of this lies in a hypothetical question: What happens if President Trump tells Israel, “You have a green light for one operation”? Most of the defense establishment would say thank you and send the Air Force to raid the uranium stockpiles. The Mossad, one might guess, would support destroying energy plants and refineries, literally plunging Iran into total darkness. This would drastically accelerate the population’s rebellion process. Their anger threshold has already surpassed the levels recorded during the January riots, but simultaneously, the fear threshold has also spiked. When there is no electricity—and with starvation expected to begin in Iran in two months—that wall of fear will collapse.
Which goal is more ambitious? At first glance, toppling the regime seems like a monumental task, while destroying the uranium appears to be a localized, manageable event. But history suggests otherwise: regimes have fallen throughout history, but no country has ever willingly surrendered or lost its enriched nuclear material while the government survived.
X
balmy trail
simple sierra
Sharing a gift link to our latest from last week, using 100+ Iranian satellite images to fill in the gap left by US imagery providers and identify more than 200 damaged structures across 16 US military sites. Special thanks to Sam Lair and Will Goodhind for assisting on the imagery analysis https://wapo.st/4wpkd5V
night haven
https://bskyx.app/profile/diplomatofnight.com/post/3mlgwf6d5pc2c
Is there a link to the referenced WSJ article somewhere? I didn't see one on Blue Sky
proud crow
Is there a link to the referenced WSJ article somewhere? I didn't see one on Blu...
ToI article picking it up appears not to be paywalled: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-built-and-defended-secret-base-deep-in-iraqi-desert-to-support-iran-air-campaign-wsj/
night haven
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-built-and-defended-a-secret-iran-wa...
Thanks for both
balmy trail
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/09/world/middleeast/caspian-sea-iran-russia.html
archive link (https://archive.ph/2026.05.09-123438/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/09/world/middleeast/caspian-sea-iran-russia.html)
fossil summit
The IRGC Aerospace Force command cautioned that “missiles and drones are locked onto the enemy.”
“We are awaiting the order to fire,” the aerospace force said.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/09/world/live-news/iran-war-news?post-id=cmoyurrmw0000356u8xkdn8sh
void roost
Via Justin Wolfers (economist) My latest @NYTimes oped shows that the White House is dramatically understating the cost of the war in Iran.
By my calculations—and I show my work—this war will cost the typical American family thousands of dollars, and it could cost them tens of thousands.
Gift link:
carmine hollow
Hegseth Says This War Has Cost $25 Billion. I Tallied Up the True Amount. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/opinion/hegseth-war-cost.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hVA.tTUc.Rw4bKS4NG8rt&smid=nytcore-android-share
That should be unlocked
orchid badger
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-built-and-defended-a-secret-iran-wa...
A FB post by Iraqi Parliament Member showing a map with information about the possible base area, dated March 4
https://www.facebook.com/ishraka.krb.info/posts/pfbid02mkpE1TR2QrzYyMmE7UabHJ7bR8qhRrZPiLFfmfJXUbzwDVMKrmJYAvXCBZTdVzAzl
A report by Al-Ain newspaper about the airborne operation, dated March 5
https://al-ain.com/article/iraqi-mp-reveals-detail-airborne-karbala-desert
Security sources close to the Iraqi prime minister's office told Al-Ain News that U.S. aircraft dropped about 150 fighters in the Wadi[Valley] Abu Muntar area of the Nukhayb desert, located between Karbala and Anbar.
orchid badger
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1450504246466634 ( local Iraqi news page, post dated March 5)
"American warplanes planes in the airspace of the Najaf desert and the Al-Nukhaib area"
timid jungle
Drone attacks reported in Qatar, Kuwait, and UAE today
https://fixupx.com/MOD_Qatar/status/2053409301801136202/en
https://fixupx.com/KuwaitArmyGHQ/status/2053403097964097604/en
https://fixupx.com/modgovae/status/2053426051473342702/en
serene walrus
Beijing Confirms Attack on Chinese Tanker in the Strait of Hormuz https://share.google/HvN3WslRbqL8hfiGt
orchid badger
A FB post by Iraqi Parliament Member showing a map with information about the po...
A land change in the Nukhayb desert is visible in Sentinel‑2 imagery (March 2026), it may be a temporary airstrip was used by Israeli forces [31.66953,42.45038]
https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/?zoom=15&lat=31.67071&lng=42.4601&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=U2FsdGVkX18Fg1baSXmhvq2Hsf%2BOejr2M8CZgmxslx4mEt2%2F7WWwqGzMduDWbtIRrmRZIKxxQnEMl3hkRJkrv0iIp66Mne6e5fC42Nl2K1Rgfx%2B1Uq1DfAOm67yky5yl&datasetId=S2_L2A_CDAS&fromTime=2026-03-18T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2026-03-18T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_TONEMAPPED_NATURAL_COLOR&demSource3D="MAPZEN"&cloudCoverage=0&dateMode=SINGLE
timid jungle
Fars news: Iran's navy chief claims domestic light submarines remain operational and on alert in Strait of Hormuz
https://fixupx.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/2053384680037109943/en
On April 8th, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Iran's submarine fleet had been eliminated:
Meanwhile, the Iranian Navy was completely annihilated. The United States destroyed more than 150 naval vessels in total, including 16 entire classes of Iranian warships. **Despite once being the largest undersea force in the Middle East, Iran now has zero submarine vessels. **97% of Iran's once massive inventory of more than 5,000 naval mines has also been targeted and destroyed. [emphasis added]
timid jungle
## Drone attacks reported in Qatar, Kuwait, and UAE today
https://fixupx.com/MO...
Likely corroboration for today's vessel incident disclosed by the Qatar MOD
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 23NM northeast of DOHA, QATAR.
The Master of a Bulk Carrier reports being hit by an unknown projectile. There was a small fire
that has been extinguished, there are no casualties. There is no reported environmental impact.
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260510-ukmto_056_26_warning_attack.pdf?
timid jungle
The Guardian has an exclusive interview with a seafarer who was aboard the tanker MKD Vyom when it was attacked on 1 March, an incident that killed one crew member and left another missing.
Photos from the article provided by rescue/recovery teams
indigo nova
woeful oar
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-a-e-has-been-secretly-carrying-out-attacks-on...
Can we get an archive link or summary of what this is?
balmy trail
Can we get an archive link or summary of what this is?
Here’s The Guardian reporting on it
midnight horizon
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-a-e-has-been-secretly-carrying-out-attacks-on...
Please remember for next time that you should always check whether there is an embed and whether the embed shows a reasonable amount of information for someone to judge whether they want to read it.
If not, you must provide this information. Usually the addition of a couple of sentences is enough to explain.
indigo nova
The title seemed pretty unambiguous to me
tiny path
A URL is not a description of an article. If you post something there should be enough information in the post to help someone decide if they want to (or need to) click on the link to learn more.
weak pike
BBC News - UK promises jets, drones and warship for Strait of Hormuz defence mission
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y909grldqo
void roost
weak pike
timid vine
Do we know why Iran has attacked the UAE so much more than the other countries around it?
fossil summit
Do we know why Iran has attacked the UAE so much more than the other countries a...
The analysis I’ve seen is that the UAE is a big energy competitor of Iran and it has a pipeline to avoid the strait.
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/3.17.26_CNN-Quest_Karen-Young.mp4
timid vine
The analysis I’ve seen is that the UAE is a big energy competitor of Iran and it...
Thank you!
smoky pulsar
BBC News - 'Floating armoury' ship reportedly seized by Iran
Suspicious Activity UKMTO #28082035
14 May 2026
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 38NM northeast of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. The CSO has reported that the vessel has been taken by unauthorised personnel whist at anchor and is now bound for Iranian Territorial Waters. UKMTO continue to investigate
https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents#22b1cf89-7ce8-4dc7-95c5-9e1b98fa0efa
timid jungle
Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) has officially announced in a statement that since last night a number of Chinese ships have begun passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
https://fixupx.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2054948495828627722/en
timid jungle
BBC News - 'Floating armoury' ship reportedly seized by Iran
https://www.bbc.co...
The vessel seized appears to beHUI CHUAN (IMO: 8316895)
The owner/manager is out of the Marshall Islands per Equqasis
Direct link to UKMTO report on the incident regarding the seizure/interdiction:
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260514-ukmto_057_26_warning_suspicious-activity.pdf?
Great video piece by former Bellingcat Aric Toler and the NYT visual investigation team on damage done to US bases in the region
azure glade
Great video piece by former Bellingcat Aric Toler and the NYT visual investigati...
Was there a comprehensive dataset of photos published anywhere in these articles?
timid jungle
CENTCOM Commander: 1 Civilian Casualty Investigation from 13,629 Munitions used in Conflict
Quite the exchange between Senator Gillibrand and Admiral Cooper
Gillibrand: Have you been implementing all the laws that are required under current law to minimize civilian death?
Cooper: Senator, we have executed every operation consistent with the law of armed conflict. Civilian casualties is a particular passion of mine, we pay attention to it, we follow all the procedures, and we've gone above and beyond to, in my case, personally warn Iranian people of several instances during conflict where they were potentially being used as human shields.
Gillibrand: If they had been warned, they how did we then bomb 22 schools?
Cooper: There's no indication that we have that that has been corroborated. Zero -
Gillibrand: How many schools have we bombed?
Cooper: There is one active civilian casualty investigation from the 13,629 munitions.
Gillibrand: So then how do you explain the publicly available information that 22 schools have been hit and multiple hospitals?
Cooper: There's no way we can corroborate that. No indication of that whatsoever, Senator.
Gillibrand: There's no WAY you can corroborate or no indication of it, which one?
Cooper: No indication.
Gillibrand: Well the indication is what's publicly available. There is indication. Have you investigated those claims?
Cooper: We have not.
Gillibrand: Why have you not? If this is a passion of yours, if you believe that civilian casualties are not consistent with the laws of war and not consistent with human rights obligations, that our military regularly follows with great pride and great diligence, why have you not investigated those allegations when they're publicly being made on the cover of New York Times?
"There's no way we can corroborate that."
If only there was a community or maybe even a discord server, that could help CENTCOM out.
🤔
ember orbit
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir visited the UAE secretly during Operation Roaring Lion, accompanied by a US delegation, to strengthen strategic cooperation and discuss defense against Iran. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-896313
timid jungle
Abu Dhabi Media Office: Drone strike causes generator fire at Barakah nuclear plant perimeter; no injuries, radiological safety unaffected
https://fixupx.com/ADMediaOffice/status/2055953287849857070/en
vapid nimbus
fossil summit
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/business/qatar-economy-iran-war.html
archive: https://archive.is/dHass
timid jungle
Saudia Arabia reports intercept of drones from Iraqi airspace; reserves right to respond
timid jungle
International Atomic Energy Agency statement of concern of today's drone incident near UAE nuclear power plant
fossil summit
Israel’s Channel 13 is reporting that dozens of US cargo planes carrying ammunition from bases in Germany have landed in Tel Aviv in the past 24 hours.
The Israeli broadcaster said these were part of preparations to resume the war on Iran.
timid jungle
SoH Watch: Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) X account is live — Authority Contested
The account is followed by maritime analysts Michelle Weise Bockmann and Martin Kelly (Eos Group), as well as the IRGC Navy command account, indicating it is an official channel.
Source: https://fixupx.com/PGSA_IRAN/status/2056295623276495262/en
Separately, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman reports that Iranian and Omani teams met last week to negotiate a new mechanism for access to the Strait of Hormuz, with talks continuing.
Source: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/18/768846/Iran-Oman-Baghaei-Hormuz-Strait-mechanism
Note: The US, IMO, UN and others insist that the strait remain open and not under the control of any coastal state.
timid jungle
Human Rights Activists News Agency (HNRA) report published
https://fixupx.com/hrana_english/status/2056353321435156507/en
https://www.hra-iran.org/between-missiles-and-repression-hra-releases-new-report-on-us-israeli-operations-in-iran/
Six hours of footage of strikes from the hostilities:
https://youtu.be/ipz2bDYGml8?si=IcrL9-B1Pr2cySXa
near grail
New article regarding the collision of two KC-135 tankers:
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/05/iran-war-pentagon-crash-investigation/687068/?gift=kPTlqn0J1iP9IBZcsdI5IU1J4l9FITG-_kIXsx_k8cA&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
livid scaffold
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605199142
A US military investigation into a blast at an elementary school in Minab, a city in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, is “complex” because the school was located on an active Iranian cruise missile site, US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress on Tuesday.
I was very surprised to read this claim in a few news articles today. I was wondering if anyone has any OSINT data to lend or remove credibility from this assertion?
near grail
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605199142
```A US military investigation into a ...
Only the US military seems to have any ambiguity about the school strike
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/27/new-videos-reveal-more-details-about-iran-girls-school-strike/?utm_source=discord
I have not read anything about there being an active Iranian cruise missile site at that location, so that would be news if anyone could corroborate that; US military officials have only tried to cover up and minimize the damage of this strike so far.
Just because I don't know what iranintl.com is, here is a clip of the hearing:
https://fixupx.com/SkyNews/status/2056792578859618401
timid jungle
I have not read anything about there being ***an active Iranian cruise missile s...
Following this closely for work. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time Cooper or any US official has publicly characterized the site as an active cruise missile site — would genuinely welcome a correction if someone's seen it used earlier.
There's plenty of prior reporting on the history of an IRGC facility at the location, but this appears to be the first time it's been described as active at the time of the stirke..
Here's a Google Doc with the full transcript of the exchange(link)
Key exchange:
REP. SMITH: It's been 80 days thereabouts since the initial bombing campaign that struck the girls school in Iran. Killed, I think, over 150 school girls. It's really pretty clear what happened there. But 80 days on, we have not taken responsibility for that attack. The endless stalling — "it's being investigated, it's being investigated, it's being investigated." In the past when we've had these types of mistakes, they have been quickly acknowledged even if a further investigation is necessary to figure out prevention methods. Can you at this moment acknowledge that that mistake was made and that we were responsible for it?
[Cooper declines to acknowledge responsibility, restating that the US does not deliberately target civilians. Smith presses him to answer the specific question.]
ADM. COOPER: It's a complex investigation. The school itself is located on an active IRGC cruise missile base. It's more complex than the average strike. As soon as we're complete, I'm fully committed to transparency given your important oversight role and the other members here.
near grail
I know that there were previous analyses mapping IRGC facilities nearby (in the same complex?) as the school, but surely there's enough prior imagery to measure the claim:
The school itself is located on an active IRGC cruise missile base
against verifiable IRGC facilities that were hit and the DISTANCE between those facilities (cruise missile or not) and the school
near grail
I think this was the article that I'm thinking of:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jlA.RTG5.Bj1mxPATIG_W&smid=url-share
timid jungle
WSJ: US Seizes Iran linked Tanker in Indian Ocean
SKYWAVE - IMO: 9328716
Sketchy Boats (link)
US Sanction Designation (link)
The vessels owner and manager is unknown per Equasis.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-seized-iran-linked-oil-tanker-in-the-indian-ocean-704f5f3c?
severe verge
NYT reports that the US and Israel were hoping *Ahmadinejad * would take over Iran after the initial decapitation strikes as a more friendly leader for the country, but an Israeli attack that nearly killed Ahmadinejad left him "disillusioned."
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html
near grail
tiny path
It doesn't appear there's a way to know or verify that with open source information.
knotty cedar
Is there any indication the toll is a thing still?
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Korea said they coordinated with Iran about the Universal-Winner that just passed the strait.
I dont think he will confirm paying the toll to avoid an angry tweet and US sanctions.
timid jungle
There's quite a bit of recent information regarding paid access for safe transit through the strait
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-896582
https://www.albawaba.com/news/iran-imposes-new-fees-undersea-cables-1627988
Maritime intel firm Windward has a helpful summary:
https://windward.ai/blog/irans-hormuz-transit-toll-mechanism-and-what-it-means/
Earlier this week, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority X account went live as previously shared
#1473081625775706295 message
Most of the recent transits have taken the Larak Island route. It very likely that prior arrangements with Iran/IRGC were made.
From the IRGC Navy's command account:
https://fixupx.com/niroo_daryayi/status/2057074507286814788/en
Finally, both US Treasury and a major P&I Club have issued advisories to owners/vessel managers paying for safe transit:
https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935556/download?
https://www.steamshipmutual.com/publications/articles/strait-hormuz-sanctions-considerations
tiny path
Which, in short, will be why verifiable claims of payments will be extremely difficult. Any scraps of evidence of payments could be used against organizations.
timid jungle
Which, in short, will be why verifiable claims of payments will be extremely dif...
From an analytical/assessement standpoint, the advisories, prior industry reporting on payments, vessel routing, and the IRGC setting up a burecratic mechanism for arranging passage indicate that is very likely that negotatiated passage continues.
Perhaps they know we're talking about them:
timid jungle
CENTCOM posts video of interdiction of the CELESTIAL SEA (IMO: 9397030) in enforcement of the US imposed blockade
https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2057144264526598381/en
Notes:
- Marine Traffic has the VOI currently broadcasting under a false Aruba MMSI
- The vessel was sanctioned in April of 2025 by US OFAC
timid jungle
UKMTO shares industry guidance for vessels transiting the Strait
timid jungle
IRGC affiliated Fars news reports on Iranian claims of cordinated passage through the SoH
tiny path
(Sora watermark...)
near grail
interestingly enough, BW ELM is a real ship
It's just that it's transiting from Haldia, India to Kingston, Jamaica, currently in the Caribbean Sea:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:200961/mmsi:419001620/imo:9320752/vessel:BW ELM
arctic badger
(Sora watermark...)
think thats gemini 🤓 ☝️ but yeah same thing
timid jungle
Helpful Historical Context: Gulf of Oman 2019 Tanker Bombings
Sal Mercogliano of What's Going on in Shipping shared the following as "must read":
https://fixupx.com/anasalhajji/status/2057268626453921870/en
Glad I followed his advice. The author, Anas Al-Haji, is an energy analyst, instant follow and add to my X List for the region.
He draws a parallel between the April attacks on the Indian tankers Jag Arnav and Sanmar Herald ) and the May 2019 limpet mine bombings of four tankers near Fujairah. His argument: there were elements within the IRGC that had a material interest in disrupting the peace process then, and something similar may be at work now.
April article from Independent Arabia (link)
timid jungle
Helpful (though somewhat messy visualization) May 19-20 vessel transits
https://fixupx.com/criticalthreats/status/2057234551206740164/en
The takeaway is that most transits are occurring through the Iranian approved route.
Helpful resource: MarineTraffic's daily SoH monitoring report
novel sail
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/hezbollah-targets-iron-dome-launcher-with-fiber-optic-fpv-drone/ Saw this attack by Hezbollah on an iron dome launcher and im fairly sure that its a decoy. The marked frame doesnt match the one seen on a real launcher and it also seems to lack the hydraulic cylinders for adjustment.
timid jungle
Any thoughts on whether this video is legit (as in not recycled or AI generated footage):
https://fixupx.com/imp_navigator/status/2057151052680503495?/en
It also appears on Tanabak (link) and Tasnim (link) - although Tasnim's currently down for me.
If it's legit, which vessel is targeted?
@iranianmil_ar shared it and characterized the vessel as linked with UAE.
timid jungle
State of the Strait Update
fossil summit
WSJ Europe reporter Laurence Norman
"Source tells me the draft “deals” circulating are inaccurate."
https://xcancel.com/laurnorman/status/2057813492548182484#m
waxen rock
Some members of the U.S. military and intelligence community canceled their plans for the Memorial Day weekend in anticipation of possible strikes, several sources said.
void roost
Ivanka assassination plot? #1330709161385922650 message
void roost
Dan Scavino posted B2 video a bit ago (pinned)
Last time he posted B2 video (different) was March 14 when US struck Kharg https://xcancel.com/DanScavino/status/2032658442452652042#m
timid jungle
CENTCOM Iran blockade update
fossil summit
timid jungle
Reuter's (20 May): helpful context and nuance on SoH passage
Ship owners’ willingness to deal directly with Iran despite the risks shows the degree to which the strait is under the Islamic Republic’s control, said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer who specialises in Iran research and analysis.
“The straits will be blocked or opened up only by the approval of the Iranian regime," said Citrinowicz, who is now at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies think tank. "Some will get through because of political alliances, others will have to pay, others will be turned back. This is the new norm.”
void roost
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/23/middleeast/iran-us-progress-framework-diplomacy-intl
see #1330709161385922650 for his latest post on the deal
waxen rock
another leak to barak ravid, one which suggests what the iranian demands might be
near grail
another leak to barak ravid, one which suggests what the iranian demands might b...
President Trump told leaders of several Arab and other Muslim countries during a Saturday conference call that if a deal to end the Iran war is achieved he wants their nations to sign peace agreements with Israel, per two U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the call.
This looks more like more Trump wishful thinking, ideating the kind of deal he wants; I'm not seeing Iran's position in this article
waxen rock
if trump is telling a reporter who's reliably printed what he wants throughout this war that israel will get something out of a peace deal, that implies that trump is worried iran wants conditions israel wouldn't like
near grail
I would trust Iran to represent their own position, rather than taking Trump's promises to the media or Israel as progress on a deal.
I don't know that I've seen reporting that "Iran will sign the Abraham Accords" as part of the 14 point plan put forth and reiterated by Iran as recently as yesterday #1473081625775706295 message
waxen rock
no, that's not what i mean.
it seems as though iran wants something israel will be unhappy to give. possibly related to lebanon, but who knows. thus trump is putting on the record that he'll look out for israel as part of the conditions to get the strait opened.
near grail
I believe the article is accurate and I appreciate the sharing 🙂
I just don't think it represents Iranian demands--we might interpret it differently
waxen rock
again, that's not what i think either
tiny path
This probably doesn't need to be a back and forth.
Since this is being described as a leak; does anyone have a track record on this person's predicability when making such assertions?
waxen rock
ravid has been the trump administration's choice when they want something printed about the war:
https://www.salon.com/2026/05/09/axios-accused-of-market-manipulation-with-iran-reporting/
near grail
Barak Ravid has been extremely close to WH reporting on the negotiation process:
https://www.axios.com/authors/barak_ravid
He has also broken news on major IDF strikes early in the conflict: #1473081625775706295 message
tiny path
I would say the Axios article is more about the phone call with arab leaders and less about Iran or even Israel's position on this. How much of it is true may need to be borne out with time, but the absence of responses cited in the article make it hard to see it as more than a retelling of a shocking thing that happened on a phone call.
waxen rock
there's no way to tell whether the story is true or not. the significant part is just that trump wanted it printed that he's advocating on behalf of israel
balmy trail
near grail
void roost
Trump just threw a massive wrench into the Iran negotiations. In a lengthy new post, Trump said it should be “mandatory” that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and others sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of any deal involving Iran.
That comes after Trump reportedly stunned leaders of several Arab and Muslim nations during a Saturday conference call by demanding they normalize relations with Israel if an Iran war deal is reached.
According to U.S. officials familiar with the call, leaders, especially from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan, which do not have formal diplomatic relations with Israel, were caught completely off guard.
“There was silence on the line and Trump joked and asked if they are still there,” one official said.
Now Trump is publicly escalating the demand, saying countries that refuse “should not be part of this Deal.”
fossil summit
Holy.
void roost
timid jungle
void roost
US conducts “self defense” strikes https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/world/live-news/iran-war-us-peace-deal?post-id=cmpltevxo00003b66mxqmitpz
waxen rock
https://fixupx.com/breaking911/status/2058963282870858083?s=46&t=43R5r1f_2J4NaF6...
the first reports of explosions happened around midnight bandar abbas time; sunset there was around 6:30 today. ATACMS fly "upwards of mach 3" with a range of about 300 km, so a flight time of no more than 5 minutes.
i don't see any way this daylight launch is related to today's strikes
serene walrus
the first reports of explosions happened around midnight bandar abbas time; suns...
ah, im told the footage is old
tiny path
Is that something you could post as a source?
waxen rock
you mean me? my source for the midnight time is this channel
tiny path
No, cuddle's note that the footage is old.
Basically if the video surfaces elsewhere (or here later) it would be nice to be able to point at a citation about it not being from these latest strikes. Or a claimed strike in the future.
woeful oar
It's not exactly definitive but it does seem odd to me that so many potential target HIMARS systems would all be grouped in a line like that for live firing. I could easily be wrong here and maybe that's just how they operate, but the giant line of them coupled with the guy shooting footage with a fumo doll doesn't scream "active combat op" to me. Wouldn't you want to disperse your firing positions?
tiny path
I don't operate a military so I don't have an opinion on that.
void roost
Several headlines about Netanyahu in the hospital but official word is that it is routine dental
Per Ynet News, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was taken to Hadassah Ein Kerem hospital this evening. His office said it was for dental treatment — issuing the statement only after Hebrew media reported the visit. Netanyahu is 76. Last month he revealed he had secretly undergone radiation treatment for a malignant prostate tumor during the war, withholding the information for two months. He had a pacemaker implanted in 2023.
midnight salmon
IRGC claims it downed a Reaper drone https://aje.news/tmpkj5?update=4601951
weak pike
timid jungle
UKMTO: tanker attacked off the coast of Oman
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 60NM east of Muscat, Oman.
The Master of a Tanker reports of an external explosion, Port side aft close to the
waterline.The crew and vessel are safe, although the Master reports some bunker fuel has
discharged into the sea.
void roost
President Trump will convene a rare Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Wednesday as negotiations with Iran enter a critical phase.
All Cabinet members are expected to attend the meeting, Fox News has confirmed, including outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
The gathering comes as the administration weighs next steps in high-stakes negotiations aimed at securing a broader agreement with Tehran amid a fraying ceasefire.
knotty cedar
near grail
void roost
President Trump will convene a rare Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Wednesday a...
Apparently the meeting is back at the WH due to weather accd to latest TS post https://www.threads.com/@kaitlancollins/post/DY0N_JKFJ0O?
timid jungle
Lloyd's List visualization of the conflict's disruption of SoH transits
night shuttle
Perhaps more open source information soon?
https://x.com/i/status/2059328953492361434
X
near grail
FixupX
Barak Ravid is reposting WH denial of this MoU, so still undetermined:
https://fixupx.com/RapidResponse47/status/2059643957647171644
sacred birch
near grail
might want to move this to https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1371571764525535242
balmy trail
void roost
might want to move this to https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/13715...
Sorry I was in the wrong place— dolt
balmy trail
tiny path
timid jungle
Al Jazeera - US strikes site near Bandar Abbas, IRGC challenged a US oil tanker trying to transit Strait of Hormuz.
US Treasury OFAC Sanctions Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA)
The PGSA was setup to facilitate safe negotatiated passage for vessels.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0507
PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY (Arabic: نهاد مدیریت آبراه خلیج فارس), Iran; Website https://pgsa.ir; Secondary sanctions risk: section 1(b) of Executive Order 13224, as amended by Executive Order 13886; Organization Established Date 2026 [SDGT] [IFSR] (Linked To: ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS).
Source: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260527_33
Reuters on this evening's strikes:
void roost
BREAKING: The IRGC says it has retaliated against the United States by attacking a U.S. airbase in Kuwait.
Just hours earlier, Axios @barakravid80 reported that the Islamic Republic fired four one-way attack drones at a U.S. commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a senior U.S. official, the U.S. military shot down the drones and struck another Iranian drone-launching unit before it could launch additional attacks.
balmy trail
I’m not very clued up on sanctions and enforcement, can someone with knowledge please help me understand how this would be possible to close landing spots for Iranian airlines, refuelling and ticket sales anywhere but the US and very close allies who decide to allow such action?
timid jungle
I’m not very clued up on sanctions and enforcement, can someone with knowledge p...
The US can apply tremendous political/economic pressure for a desired outcome. One tool would be sanctions (which is under Bessent's department).
If the US decided to sanction Iranian airlines (for providing material support to the regime, or some other rationale), that has the immediate impact of penalizing US citizens or companies for doing business with them.
So at first glance, it just hits US entities. But any other person or company that deals with a sanctioned org is at risk of secondary sanctions.
**Why would a non-US entity care about secondary sanctions? **
The tl;dr is that secondary sanctions effectively lock someone out of the dollar-based finance system, which is a pretty big deal. Since nearly every global transaction touches the dollar somewhere, most airports, fuel suppliers, and ticketing platforms would likely drop Iran than risk their dollar access.
OFAC's FAQ on what an SDN designation actually means: https://ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/topic/1631
balmy trail
The US can apply tremendous political/economic pressure for a desired outcome. O...
Massive thanks for this!!
near grail
Reuters reporting similarly:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-mou-60-day-ceasefire-extension-reached-trump-must-approve-source-says-2026-05-28/
shadow vortex
Secret Mossad branch revealed: 'We are not done with Iran. We are just getting started'
Also contains details of Mossad using Iran International to spread propaganda.
tiny path
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/05/28/secret-mossad-branch-revealed-we-are-not-...
That link didn't offer a preview. Can you share what's behind the link?
near grail
Reuters reporting similarly:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-m...
Implicitly acknowledging that there is--in fact--an MOU to be considered.
https://fixupx.com/nickschifrin/status/2060124568052781524
void roost
US military denies claim US aircraft downed near Iran's Bushehr http://reut.rs/43Cqjm2
night haven
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/05/28/secret-mossad-branch-revealed-we-are-not-...
It's worth noting that Israel Hayom is an Aldeson founded/funded paper known less for accurate reporting and more for being a voice fpr Netanyahu
weak pike
"The West is ignoring the dangerous new partnership reshaping Iran from within.
We have previously revealed Ahmad Vahidi as the main power in the regime. Now he seems to have a sinister new ally."
timid vine
https://archive.is/DIhWl
The news source is The Telegraph (for those wondering if they should click)
void roost
New Trump TS post about meeting with advisors to decide about accepting Iran deal #1330709161385922650 message
tiny path
Do you have a source for this?
timid jungle
▶️ Reminder: #faq message
6. The mods are saying “no speculation”. What’s the detailed explanation?
“Speculation” on a server dedicated to open-source research includes things that cannot be known through open-source methods. If you have to talk to a witness, consult an expert, or make an educated guess, that’s speculation.This is in addition to things like reading “body language”, commenting on the way any person reacts to a traumatic experience, examining handwriting, commenting on the state of mind of a person (eg, “they’re acting like [diagnosis]), or your own feelings (“this isn’t adding up!”).
People come to our server to see the latest reliable information, and the above discussion points should be kept to the rest of the Internet. We are absolutely fine with having very little to report as we wait for new facts to surface.
weak pike
serene walrus
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/iran-may-used-chinese-missile...
Maybe, but also "anonymous defense officials" haven't had the greatest track record as we saw in Ukraine
weak pike
Agreed. I'd absolutely take it with a pinch of salt.
undone bison
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-05-29/trump-final-deal-iran-hormuz-21816199.html for those who dont have a bloomberg access
strong stag
Can anyone please verify the exact date or a time window of this strike?
I suspect this might be referring to the 27-28th attack. The lack of anything but the Bloomberg reports makes me suspicious about that 24h window. Kuwait Army usually tweet air defence activity, they haven't since the 28th. IRGC usually send out some statement following their attacks, I haven't seen one.
fossil summit
Trump puts off “final determination” for Iran war proposal #1330709161385922650 message
timid jungle
Oman maritime warning: suspected sea mine discovered in territorial waters
timid jungle
US Disables Gambia-Flagged, UAE-Owned Lian Star (IMO: 9072692) with Hellfire Missile
The vessel appear to be under US OFAC sanctions. Equasis records show prior use of a false flag registration.
Crew nationality and casualty status unknown.
weak pike
void roost
Oil industry executives have warned for two months that the crude futures market is not reflecting the scale of the disruption triggered by the war in the Middle East.
“I don’t know, whether it’s two to three weeks or three to four weeks,” Chapman said. “What I’m really saying is, once you get to the minimum inventory levels and all-time low inventory levels, there’s only one way to go. That’s the situation
balmy trail
woeful oar
Can we get an archive of this?
fossil summit
hazy grail
X
void roost
near grail
Baghaei said that if contradictory messages were part of a U.S. negotiating tactic, they would not work with Iran, while if they reflected disarray within the U.S. administration, Washington should reach a clear and definitive position as soon as possible.
Baghaei said Tehran viewed Israeli actions in the region, including in Lebanon, as inseparable from those of the U.S., adding that any agreement to end the regional conflict would have to include implementation of the Lebanon ceasefire.
woeful oar
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html
“Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters,” the report said.
I feel like this deserves a highlight as it would be a significant escalation and as far as I know this is the first time Iran is pulling this lever.
timid jungle
Link to Tasnim News English:
Urgent/ Iran stops exchanging messages with the US in protest of Zionist crimes
The determination of the Iranian armed forces and all the axes of the resistance front to react to Zionist crimes and open new fronts
▪️ Tasnim's information indicates that due to the continuation of the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire and now this ceasefire has been violated on all fronts including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team will stop "talks and exchange of texts through mediation".
[▪️] (emoji/5888814970757454134) The immediate cessation of the aggressive and brutal operations of the Zionist regime army in Gaza and Lebanon and the necessity of the regime's complete withdrawal from the occupied areas in Lebanon have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators, and until the opinion of Iran and the resistance in this regard, there will be no dialogue.
▪️ Also, the Resistance Front and Iran have put their determination to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, and activate other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters. [Emphasis Added at the suggestion Craig]
smoky pulsar
Around 3m50s into this video Sal shows footage of an alleged mine in the Strait, haven't saw the footage posted here - Sal says it's via twitter
near grail
Around 3m50s into this video Sal shows footage of an alleged mine in the Strait,...
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines message same footage, different channel, maybe
timid jungle
I posted the mine footage over there because:
- I haven't seen an explosive specialist confirm it as a naval mine yet
- I don't know if it's recycled footage and only surfacing now because of the Omani warning.
The boom crew at #bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines are pretty helpful on those points.
waxen rock
ravid has been the trump administration's choice when they want something printe...
barak ravid gets a leak both that trump is so mad that netanyahu won't make peace, and also that trump promises to keep netanyahu out of jail if he does
timid jungle
NAVAREA warning for suspected mine in Omani territorial waters
292040 UTC MAY 26
NAVAREA IX 180/26
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
BA CHARTS 2851, 2888, 3172 AND OMAN CHART OM100
A SUSPECTED FLOATING MINE REPORTED IN POSITION
26-24.3N 056-20.6E (.)ALL VESSELS TRANSITING THROUGH
THAT AREA ARE ADVISED TO NAVIGATE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.