Israel - Iran - US (2026)

[rough jewel]

I know. I saw that

[knotty cedar]

https://fixupx.com/BRICSinfo/status/2039790929695912207

BRICS News (@BRICSinfo)

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇦🇪 IRGC claims attack on Oracle data center in Dubai.

**💬 369 🔁 1.9K ❤️ 15.7K 👁️ 3.42M **

FixupX · Apr 2, 2026, 7:43 PM

[fossil summit]

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891951

[languid bloom]

gemini says picture included in embed is from 2020 port exposion in Beirut

possibly not legitimate source that we should be posting anymore

[night haven]

Did you verify Gemini's claim? I've lost count of how many times Gemini has made things up or attributed information to the wrong source. I have no idea about this picture but I do know about AI

[serene walrus]

The article itself says that its from feb 28 2026 but i do know jpost is pretty weird

[languid bloom]

i personally recongize it

[languid bloom]

my brother also says he recognizes it as the port explosion i dont know enough to refute both him and gemini

[night haven]

You take the photo and information on the source Gemini provides and you go to the website and look at the two photos the one from now and the one from then and make sure they are a match. Before Google lens and Gemini we would run photo searches and do this manually. Google gets a lot of matches wrong because of how it's designed to look at photos so it's up to us to go and make sure it's made a good match. It should be able to tell you the source publication and date or give you an actual link to the original photo. If not, I would be highly suspicious.

[languid bloom]

thank you very much i will take this into account for the future

[night haven]

Something to remember about Gemini and all AI that's different from a general web search or a generic photo search is that Gemini has an agenda to keep you engaged, to get you hooked, so it's programmed to please, to give you what you want, even if it can't find exactly what you want. This is where a lot of the so-called hallucinations come from. So if it thinks you want to find a matching photo it will find you a matching photo even if it's not an exact match. Of course, if there is an exact match it also can find that so it's not like every answer from AI is going to be wrong we just need to check them

[fossil summit]

usually publishers will choose other images that are older for stories when they don’t have one for the new story. They have it properly labeled as being an older photo

[undone bison]

link it please

[serene walrus]

...its from the article haniyarae posted.

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-hit-israel-linked-vessel-hormuz-strait-2026-04-04/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/03/french-owned-ship-japanese-tanker-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war

[fading elm]

https://www.reuters.com/pictures/scenes-middle-east-us-israel-attack-iran-2026-02-28/?utm_source=true it's best to rely on the sources we have. Here is the photo from February 28, 2026 via REUTERS/Stringer. Memory is a funny thing sometimes

https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/smoke-rises-in-the-sky-after-blasts-were-heard-in-bahrain/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMlhVSkExWE80Ug%3D%3D?utm_medium=rcom-gallery-media&utm_campaign=rcom-rcp-lead

[waxen rock]

gemini is not a reverse image search tool, and it's frequently wrong. if you want to do reverse image search, start with bellingcat's toolkit (https://bellingcat.gitbook.io/toolkit/categories/image-video/reverse-image-search) or imgops (https://imgops.com/). if you can find a specific link to an earlier copy of the photo, then you've got evidence.

[languid bloom]

i demanded gemini provide a source and it admits it cant and mada a mistake

[near grail]

• Gemini/LLMs are not a source of truth.
• Gemini/LLMs often make mistakes and will lie to conceal them.
• Gemini/LLMs are not a replacement for human verification

[waxen rock]

it's not any more likely to be correct when you ask it to evaluate its reliability than it is any other time

[hot sun]

This is what the port explosion looked like. It was absolutely collosal. The entire dock was flattened.

[prime torrent]

Yes, please no more Gemini or other LLM "verifications" please

[languid bloom]

understood

[prime torrent]

ty!

[prime torrent]

What Genghis did here is the correct way to do it

[languid bloom]

apparently its just a magic 8 ball and we're betting our entire future on it. ty for the education ill refrain in the future

[tacit aspen]

Has there been any updates on whether the other Pilot of the downed F-15E was found or not?

[mint moon]

No

[floral dawn]

to add a source for Head's statement that the 2nd crewmember hasnt been found yet, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/world/middleeast/f-15-us-fighter-jet-iran.html

The two crew members on the plane, an F-15E Strike Eagle, were able to eject from it, U.S. military officials said. One was rescued soon afterward, but as of early Saturday, the other had not been found.

[shadow vortex]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116346816254869135

[floral dawn]

no direct link to this map in the live news thread unfortunately.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/04/world/iran-war-trump-news

[near grail]

from dainomite's NYT article as of early Sunday:

Separately, another Air Force combat plane, an A-10 Warthog, crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday. The lone pilot was rescued, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
seems like it was a single A-10 Warthog that crashed, just reported differently between sources

[serene walrus]

another thing is that LLMs are statistical models and as such cannot "admit" to things as we conceptualize

[night shuttle]

Can we continue the AI/LLM conversation somewhere else please?

[serene walrus]

Has there been any other A-10 losses in the past week or so?

[near grail]

Not that I've seen.
Just this one that crashed in the Gulf on Friday where the pilot was rescued, unless someone can find another.

[mint moon]

https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthog-being-tested-with-aerial-refueling-probe

... huh

[undone bison]

Trump threatening again, will link in CZ

[near grail]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-agents-arrest-niece-irans-qassem-soleimani-after-rubio-revoked-green-card-2026-04-04/

[serene walrus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd8275jrrko

Tracking data showed the French-owned ship passed close to the coast of Oman on the opposite side of the waterway to Iran. It is unclear what the ship was carrying.

Sal Merclioga was talking about this the other day on What's Going On With Shipping, and noted a few ships them took a route that went right by Oman and it looked like a blockade run. This seems to be a similar route

The video where he talks about it, it's at the beginning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o9z-U0uZVM

[void roost]

http://reut.rs/3Qjx4FW

[serene walrus]

Mike Black was talking about this the other day and he has some expertise on it, it's probably some passive IR sensor camera system:https://bsky.app/profile/mikeblack114.bsky.social/post/3mimtijcn2s2g

As a concept it isn't new but there's probably some improvements behind it

Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social)

also this isn't MANPADS or even IR guided SAMs, it's EO/IR detect and tracking that enables completely passive cuing for the SAM to engage (which can actually be a radar guided SAM, it's just the first RWR warning you get is the engagement radar painting you as the missile comes off the rail)

-# Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social)
This is a long known threat from Iran, I wouldn't call it "advanced," and it's just a fact of life you can't do a ton about if you get unlucky

Likes

137

Bluesky · Apr 3, 2026, 11:06 PM

[near grail]

what is his expertise?

[serene walrus]

He's a DOD guy who analyzes strategy and part of that is capability assessment

[near grail]

Is there proof that he has those qualifications, separating him from shitposters?

[serene walrus]

Mostly the people who take him seriously themselves have solid qualifications and haven't disputed him saying that he has those qualifications; I discovered him because David Burbach, who is a professor of National Security and IR at the US Naval War College, treats him as legitimate. Mike Black is in fact his real name (even though it sounds made up). He also talks about the wargames he conducts and they are reasonably professional by my understanding.

[near grail]

Maybe I'm reading his posts wrong, it just seems like a lot of commentary. I haven't been shown evidence that anyone should take him seriously, so I'm wondering with his opinion on the war is needed here.

"someone I follow also follows him"
They can follow the Cheerios account, but that doesn't mean they're qualified as a news source for the conflict.

[woven epoch]

He was a USAF munitions/aircraft maintence officer. There's quite a few think tank papers and some government papers on Iranian air defense systems, you might just have to filter out the past few days for better results. One example:
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/sites/default/files/pdf/2023-iran-airdefense-systems-table-POL3813-printable.pdf

[serene walrus]

To my understanding he now works in policy and strategy but I'm not 100% sure what his actual job title and assignment is.

[woven epoch]

Yeah I dont know what he does now. But what hes saying is pretty well established and can be verified through several different sources

[near grail]

Location seems distinct from prior one downed around Shiraz:
https://fixupx.com/fab_hinz/status/2040387363583508643

Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz)

Iran showcases what it claims is the wreckage of an MQ-9 Reaper, reportedly shot down by air defences over Bushehr province and retrieved from the Gulf. Once again, it is not a Reaper but suspiciously looks like a Wing Loong 2.

Quoting خبرگزاری فارس (@FarsNews_Agency)
︀
صید پهپاد آمریکایی در دریای خلیج‌فارس
︀︀
︀︀🔹صیادان بندر دیر، لاشه پهپاد MQ-9 آمریکایی که توسط سامانه های پدافندی در استان بوشهر مورد اصابت قرار گرفت و در خلیج فارس سقوط کرده بود را از دریا خارج کردند.

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FixupX · Apr 4, 2026, 11:13 AM

[serene walrus]

I do wonder who those wing loongs belong to. I remember it being said earlier that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Pakistan run them, with the Saudis publically denying it (and there not really being a plausible reason for Pakistan to run them in Iran either barring some bizzare coked out suppositions)

[shadow vortex]

Thread documenting references to the downed US airman still in Iran as a potentoal "hostage" rather than a potential POW. Interesting shift in language happening.
https://x.com/i/status/2040277570457932030

Adam Johnson (@adamjohnsonCHI)

The Economist and Bloomberg also called the downing of fighter jets an “escalation” by Iran. Everyone knows you’re supposed to just let invading militaries bomb your universities and girls’ schools and apartment buildings and that shooting back is an act of unhinged aggression.

X · Apr 4, 2026, 3:57 AM

[woven epoch]

https://fixupx.com/i/status/2040486281902477436

Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel)

Just got this from Planet Labs:
︀︀
︀︀Dear Tyler Rogoway,
︀︀
︀︀Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. government has requested all satellite imagery providers voluntarily implement an indefinite withhold of imagery in the designated Area of Interest (AOI). Effective retroactively from March 9, 2026, Planet is moving to a managed access model, extending the publication delay for all new imagery within the designated AOI, and releasing imagery on a case-by-case basis and for urgent, mission-critical requirements or in the public interest. For the -media, this model is in line with the media policies of other remote sensing companies. We expect this policy to last through the end of the conflict.Access to imagery for the rest of the world is unaffected. These are extraordinary circumstances, and we are doing all we can to balance the needs of all our stakeholders. We will continue to monitor the situation and make adjustments as possible to minimize…

FixupX · Apr 4, 2026, 5:46 PM

[serene walrus]

Bellingcat launches a GoFundMe for a new sattelite

[knotty cedar]

The whole language irks me to no end, seems every media surrendered to Israel/AIPAC dictionnary
You never hear "the Israeli regime" or "Tsahal terrorists"

[woeful oar]

I think the post he's quoting himself on from earlier raises a very valid concern: What exactly stops western satellite providers from altering imagery in the future?

[woven epoch]

I dont think thats a reasonable fear, as opposed to them just not releasing imagery, or delaying it like they are here. If a provider modifies imagery they become untrustworthy and lose all their customers.

Evan of the WaPo posted a screenshot of the email
https://x.com/evanhill/status/2040503132124291482

Evan Hill (@evanhill)

One of the most important US-based commercial satellite imagery providers on whom most media outlets rely says the government has asked all imagery providers to indefinitely withhold satellite images from the Iran war

X · Apr 4, 2026, 6:53 PM

[woeful oar]

I think it already makes western/American providers look extremely untrustworthy in comparison to others. If I'm a client looking for an imagery provider, how does this reflect on the product that is being bought and paid for? Effectively, this gives control of the narrative to Chinese/Russian based providers who will showcase exactly the kind of stuff the US wants suppressed.

[weary escarp]

Are there other other satellite imagery vendors? Maybe Russian ones?

[shadow vortex]

Reminder that Laura Loomer has the President's ear and was given an office at the Pentagon press room after other media was kicked out at Trump and Hegseth's request.
https://x.com/i/status/2040183926506012881

Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer)

If we really want to be taken seriously when we talk about sending Iran “back to the stone ages” then this is what needs to happen.

The US needs to bomb Iran’s:

Power & water infrastructure

Bank and financial institutions

Production/storage facilities for fertilizer and

▶ Play video

X · Apr 3, 2026, 9:45 PM

[night haven]

Israel, while currently heavily influenced by some religious ideals, is not a religious Republic like Iran. Add to that that Iran is a Muslim religious Republic, something many in the US identify, albeit not necessiarily correctly, with terrorism and the reason you haven't heard these makes sense. Of course, if Israel continues on its far right trajectory that could be subject to change in the very near future

[weak pike]

The US could absolutely do that, and probably by cyber means alone if that Zero Day TV documentary is to be believed. But even if one removals the moral argument from the equation, Iran will do the same against the Gulf States' desalination plants.

[knotty cedar]

Israel is a theocracy where half of the population doesnt have the right to vote, and its complete disregard for civilian lives or targeting of journalists doesnt make it any better.

[night haven]

Show me this from verifiable sources please. I'd like to see government or journalistic sources that consider Israel a theocracy. In terms of Injustice to Arab and Palestinian Israelis, that's definitely there but that's not the same as being a theocracy. There's a lot of Injustice in the United States as well and that doesn't make us a theocracy

[woeful oar]

This isn't the channel for this so please go away.

[severe verge]

In a statement, Narjes Soleimani, Soleimani's daughter, said: "The individuals arrested in the US have no connection whatsoever to Martyr Soleimani and the claims made by the US State Department are false."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgqkn4j48qdo

[serene walrus]

https://bsky.app/profile/roryjohnston.bsky.social/post/3miov7ytmus2a

Rory Johnston (@roryjohnston.bsky.social)

Potentially massive development.

“Brotherly Iraq is exempt from any restrictions we have imposed on the Strait of Hormuz,” Iran’s military spokesman said.

Iraq is the Gulf country that has shut in the most crude production capacity at >3 MMbpd—swinging that back would be huge.

Bluesky · Apr 4, 2026, 6:42 PM

[proud crow]

https://fixupx.com/MazMHussain/status/2040501583855972530

Murtaza Hussain (@MazMHussain)

Economist editor @shashj shared an unsourced claim that this health center famous for its vaccine research was producing biological weapons; when this was pointed out he defended himself and then deleted it without explanation. Now that the IDF has simultaneously denied and refused to explain why it directly struck the center I hope he will clarify to his readers his own comments.

Quoting Shirin Jaafari (@Shirinj)
︀
The @IDF response to my question about the attack on the Pasteur Institute: "The IDF struck a military headquarters of the Iranian terror regime in Tehran, which the regime deliberately constructed near the Pasteur Institute."
︀︀My follow up: From the videos and images available,

**💬 18 🔁 226 ❤️ 703 👁️ 51.7K **

FixupX · Apr 4, 2026, 6:47 PM

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-preparing-attacks-iranian-energy-sites-awaits-us-green-light-official-2026-04-04/

[near grail]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/04/world/iran-war-trump-news?unlocked_article_code=1.YVA.d9uO.h2RBZ2q530Vx&smid=url-share

[tiny path]

Can you send that to @deep thunder so we can review it first?

[languid bloom]

do i dm?

[tiny path]

Yes please

[languid bloom]

i did but it said something twice about verified is that part necessary?

[tiny path]

If you've never used ModMail before there's some steps you need to do for first time setup.

[languid bloom]

im sorry im weary to give it such permissions is there an email or other contact method

[tiny path]

I did grab the image and shared it with the other moderators and staff. We'll see what we can verify and let you know.

[languid bloom]

thank you in the future i will refrain from posting unverified things and instead send to staff

[void roost]

https://www.threads.com/@az_intel_/post/DWuq3-WkRrU?

[languid bloom]

I have possible information that may help verify or source the image as legitimate on the pilot I would like to send to staff. Is there a telegram or signal to submit tips

unfortunate

[prime torrent]

or [email protected]

[languid bloom]

tyvm

[serene walrus]

https://bsky.app/profile/jackmurphyrgr.bsky.social/post/3mipczfw3y223

This is starting to float around but so far no major publication has picked up on it yet

Jack Murphy (@jackmurphyrgr.bsky.social)

F-15 WSO recovered alive. Was escaping and evading. Massive fire fight on tgt. Iranians were actively looking for him in the area.

-# Jack Murphy (@jackmurphyrgr.bsky.social)
Some good news coming for a change.

Reposts

533

Likes

2069

Quotes

121

Replies

110

Bluesky · Apr 4, 2026, 10:49 PM

[night shuttle]

https://vxtwitter.com/i/status/2040571916935647536

Vahid Online (@Vahid)

ویدیوی دریافتی: هواگردهای حاضر در آسمان #اصفهان
شهروندان از ساعت ۲ تا ۲:۳۰ بامداد یکشنبه ۱۶ فروردین خبر از شنیده شدن صدای انفجار دادند. از ساعت ۲:۲۰ صدای جنگنده‌ها نیز به گزارش انفجارها اضافه شد و الان ساعت ۲:۵۴ می‌گویند صدای چند انفجار دیگر از سمت جنوب شهر شنیده می‌شود.
#Iran

▶ Play video

vxTwitter / fixvx · Apr 4, 2026, 11:27 PM

[near grail]

With a human life as the cost of false hope, I would rather we hold off on claims that they're safely recovered until it's known for sure by major outlets.

[mint moon]

https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/2040571916935647536/en

If you use fxtwitter, you can append a language on the end for auto-translate. /en in this case

Vahid Online (@Vahid)

📑 Translated from language_fa

Received video: Aircraft present in the sky of #Isfahan Citizens reported hearing explosion sounds from 2:00 to 2:30 a.m. on Sunday, April 5. From 2:20 a.m., the sound of fighter jets was also added to the explosion reports, and now at 2:54 a.m., they say the sound of several more explosions is being heard from the south of the city. #Iran

Original text
ویدیوی دریافتی: هواگردهای حاضر در آسمان #اصفهان
︀︀شهروندان از ساعت ۲ تا ۲:۳۰ بامداد یکشنبه ۱۶ فروردین خبر از شنیده شدن صدای انفجار دادند. از ساعت ۲:۲۰ صدای جنگنده‌ها نیز به گزارش انفجارها اضافه شد و الان ساعت ۲:۵۴ می‌گویند صدای چند انفجار دیگر از سمت جنوب شهر شنیده می‌شود.
︀︀#Iran

**💬 13 🔁 114 ❤️ 653 👁️ 45.8K **

▶ Play video

FxTwitter · Apr 4, 2026, 11:27 PM

[tiny path]

https://bskye.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mioo3uohs72x

[woven epoch]

Been quite a few hours since that claim with no news outlets corroborating

[serene walrus]

yeah, since then it looks like the very reliable (sarcastic) Don Bacon put his name on the line. Doesn't look like anyone else

[floral dawn]

https://bsky.app/profile/jackmurphyrgr.bsky.social/post/3mipsbjxpmk2x

Jack Murphy (@jackmurphyrgr.bsky.social)

Wheels up all friendlies out. C130 got a wheel stuck in the sand at the FARP and a Delta element had to come in and blow it in place. Whole op sounds dicey as hell but they pulled it off.

-# Jack Murphy (@jackmurphyrgr.bsky.social)
F-15 WSO recovered alive. Was escaping and evading. Massive fire fight on tgt. Iranians were actively looking for him in the area.

Bluesky · Apr 5, 2026, 3:22 AM

[tiny path]

Al Jazeera is reporting that the WSO was rescued:
https://aje.news/vtvz59?update=4462866

A US government official has told Al Jazeera that the rescue operation is still in progress.

The missing crew member is confirmed rescued, they said. but not safe yet. The rescue team must still successfully exfiltrate from Iran and get back to safety, they added.

[void roost]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/5/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-trumps-ultimatum-fire-at-kuwait-oil-complex?update=4462850

[tiny path]

Yep, it looks like Al Jazeera is the only news source reporting this.

[modest solstice]

Jack is one of the few people I'd trust to be right on this given his priors and connections. Latest is a C130 got a wheel stuck in sand at FARP. According to JM, team now airborne on way out.

[modest solstice]

Obviously multiple sources are good, but JM is a little bit beyond most other sources on this type of thing.

[void roost]

Jen Griffin at Fox now confirming too https://www.threads.com/@63430841288/post/DWvEZLIlHo9

[tiny path]

Axios is confirming as well:
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/iran-f15-crew-member-rescued
archive: https://archive.is/Rpc4d

[midnight horizon]

I’m glad we don’t have to worry in this server about getting it first. All we have to care about is getting it right.

[void roost]

https://xcancel.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2040637421373505989#m

[night shuttle]

Here is more detail (text to follow)

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/us/politics/military-iran-airman-rescue.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

An Air Force officer whose fighter jet had been shot down in Iran was rescued by U.S. Special Operations forces in a risky Saturday night mission that took commandos deep into enemy territory, said current and former U.S. officials briefed on the operation.

The rescue followed a life-or-death race between U.S. and Iranian forces that stretched over two days to reach the injured airman, the officials said. In the end, U.S. commandos extracted the officer in a massive operation that involved hundreds of special operations troops.

The two crew members of the F-15E Strike Eagle, the first lost to enemy fire in the monthlong war, had both ejected from the cockpit on Friday after Iran’s military struck their plane. The jet’s pilot was quickly rescued, but its weapons systems officer could not be found, setting off an urgent search with major consequences for President Trump and the war the United States and Israel launched on Feb. 28.

Finding the downed airman, who had been hiding with little more than a pistol as defense, had been the U.S. military’s highest priority over the last 48 hours.

The mission to save the crew member employed hundreds of special forces troops, dozens of U.S. warplanes, helicopters, and cyber, space and other intelligence capabilities.

U.S. attack aircraft dropped bombs and opened fire on Iranian convoys to keep them away from the area where the airman was hiding. As U.S. forces converged on the downed airman, a firefight erupted, two former senior military officials briefed on the operation said.

The airman was equipped with a beacon and a secure communication device for coordinating with forces mounting the rescue.

A senior U.S. military official described the mission to rescue the airman as one of the most challenging and complex in the history of U.S. special operations.

In a final twist after the weapons officer was rescued, two transport planes that would carry the commandos and the airmen to safety got stuck at a remote base in Iran. Commanders decided to fly in three new planes to extract all the U.S. military personnel and the airmen, and they blew up the two disabled planes rather than have them fall into Iranian hands.

The F-15E fighter jet was shot down in a region of Iran where there is significant opposition to the Iranian government As a result, the airman may have been able to rely on locals for shelter and assistance.

The crash also drew the attention of Iranian military forces, who were reported to have been scouring the area. The Iranian government asked locals for help finding the downed airman, and had offered a reward for the airman’s capture.

The C.I.A. often also plays a role in making contact with civilians willing to help vulnerable troops stay alive, a process known as “unconventional assisted recovery.”

[floral dawn]

Gift link if folks prefer to read it on their website https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/us/politics/military-iran-airman-rescue.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YlA.0HRG.JSBIXVAVo2dE&smid=url-share

[icy berry]

I don't know how legit this source is, but are there any peakvisor wizards that can pin this spot down?

https://fxtwitter.com/HShaqrah/status/2040644940686938442/en

Hisham Abu Shaqrah | هشام أبو شقرة (@HShaqrah)

📑 Translated from Arabic

The Revolutionary Guard announces the destruction of an American aircraft during an attempt to rescue the American pilot in Isfahan

Original text
الحرس الثوري يعلن تدمير طائرة أمريكية أثناء محاولة إنقاذ الطيار الأمريكي في أصفهان

**❤️ 2 👁️ 91 **

FxTwitter · Apr 5, 2026, 4:17 AM

[inland bobcat]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5816042-john-bolton-donald-trump-iran-us-fighter-jets/

[tiny path]

A note that The Hill won't give you a preview unless you add "amp/" at the end of the URL:
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5816042-john-bolton-donald-trump-iran-us-fighter-jets/amp/

[void roost]

As a history lesson — this is not the first time America has had to destroy its own planes in Iran. Operation Eagle Claw — the failed attempt to rescue the embassy hostages— had to be on their minds

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw

[floral dawn]

The NYT article Sarah and I posted earlier has been expanded quite a bit. This is one tidbit that wasn't in there earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/us/politics/military-iran-airman-rescue.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YlA.0HRG.JSBIXVAVo2dE&smid=url-share

[viral storm]

As well, the tech bounties for these crashed aircraft isn't just down to the original nation it falls into. I'm sure both China and Russia are extremely happy to get their hands on parts or information from Iran.

[novel sail]

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3miqalijeec2f

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

Footage shows destroyed US C-130 aircraft used in the Iran rescue mission, which were deliberately destroyed by US forces to prevent capture during the evacuation of the downed F-15E pilot.

Bluesky · Apr 5, 2026, 7:38 AM

Correct me if im wrong but there is a helicopter rotor in the foreground.

[velvet zenith]

From Wikipedia, the C130 has large props

[novel sail]

Yes, and the prop in the background is the C-130 engine. A newer variant, but the one in the foreground looks more like something you see on a helicopter.

[velvet zenith]

Yes yes ... I think ... It may still fit if you compare the cockpit windows ... Certainly the props on these engines are larger than most helicopter blades I've seen in person... But it does look more like helicopter linkages but maybe that is feathering of the props I will continue to Google here but I don't think you're entirely imagining things haha

[novel sail]

Especially the dampers and the linkage suggest its a rotor.

[velvet zenith]

Yess and Wikipedia on the props:

Propellers: 4-bladed Hamilton Standard 54H60 constant-speed fully feathering reversible propellers, 13 ft 6 in (4.11 m) diameter

[novel sail]

Thats for the older versions.

[velvet zenith]

Definitely could fit the background but the foreground object does suggest something with many blades

[novel sail]

This should be a newer one

[velvet zenith]

I dunno it looks close to me heh thanks

[novel sail]

This is the one in the background yes.

Different angle

[velvet zenith]

Yeah okay. I keep trying to square it with the newest 8 blade but the other clearly isn't... So yeah another vehicle

[novel sail]

But then comes the intriguing part: What helicopter did they use with 6 blades?

[glad vector]

a guess found online https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2040696625790607738?s=46

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

Appears that U.S. forces also destroyed at least one MH-6 Little Bird helicopter left behind at the forward base in Iran.

X · Apr 5, 2026, 7:42 AM

[novel sail]

Was just about to say its an MH-6

[glad vector]

https://x.com/andynovy/status/2040707983328326002

Andy (@andynovy)

Estimated location of 2 hc/mc130 and 2 little birds south of Isfahan.

est C: 32.258394, 51.901927
S:https://t.co/1bgXkv3DKd

h/t @acceladealer for the stitching and help with the geo

@GeoConfirmed @FaytuksNetwork

X · Apr 5, 2026, 8:27 AM

[glad vector]

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2040713022847512891

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: CENTCOM sources confirm that not just one, but two aircraft were destroyed inside Iran by U.S. forces, along with two helicopters of the U.S. Army’s 160th SOAR.

The two aircraft were one HC-130J and one MC-130J. The crews of these aircraft and two MH-6M helicopters,

X · Apr 5, 2026, 8:47 AM

[spice crypt]

Nothing

[glad vector]

To be precise nothing stops them from making obvious manipulations, like putting black bars over things in the data they release. Making hidden manipulations is much trickier because you need to undo the effects of the atmosphere and the optics or the results will look fake when compared to existing images, and comparing with older images is like 90% of the reason images are taken

[novel sail]

Then they have to know what to manipulate also. ie someone have to tell them exactly what objects they want to be hidden, which in itself creates risks of leaks etc.

[sinful pagoda]

[Deleted my post as it was using the geolocated footage already shared above]

[smoky pulsar]

Tail section

https://t.me/Alsaa_plus_EN/23520?single

[restive saffron]

https://x.com/PGTAnalytics/status/2040718217782681990?s=20 anyone know the origin of this video? cant seem to find it on google reverse

Linda M. (@PGTAnalytics)

A US black hawk was hit by Iran fire , it was not destroyed by US on the ground as Centcom claimed

Dubai/Iran/Israel war

▶ Play video

X · Apr 5, 2026, 9:08 AM

[novel sail]

I dare to say with a great deal of confidence that this is a Mi-8/17 so not an american helicopter.

[near grail]

In the replies, looks like 2010 2020 footage (I can't read good):
https://news.sky.com/video/syrian-military-chopper-shot-down-by-rebels-11931578

[novel sail]

Was about to say probably Syria around 2014-15, but i guess its more recent than that.

[fallen spear]

The US does operate some helicopters of this type.
https://theaviationist.com/2024/10/05/rare-us-operated-mi-17-south-carolina/

[novel sail]

But nothing they would use in Iran.

[fallen spear]

We do know that they were used in Afghanistan. I understand this particular video is from a different event but I'm not sure how we'd know they wouldn't use one in Iran.

[novel sail]

Using a Mi-17 in broad daylight over Iran would be a really bad idea since there is an apparent risk that it would be subject to friendly fire.

[sinful pagoda]

This post has been deleted by now

[serene walrus]

Thats contradicted by other reporting which states that the us blew them up themselves as part of an abandonment process

[gritty panther]

I can't see any contradiction, the tweet clearly says "destroyed inside Iran by U.S. force"

[novel sail]

It is still an old film and not from Iran.

[gritty panther]

I was only responding on the "destroyed by whom?" subject (the movie looks like it could be from eagle claw but I don't know)

[timid jungle]

UKMTO shares report of unknown projectiles at Khor Fakkan Port, United Arab Emirates. No damage/injuries.

https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260405_ukmto_warning_031_26.pdf?

[void roost]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/opinion/iran-ai-war-geography.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YlA.lP-e.KVgLNt5mnffM&smid=nytcore-ios-share

[void roost]

Yet for all the increased speed and accuracy of A.I.-assisted targeting, the war is showing that the physical world still imposes major barriers to victory. The scale and dispersion of Iranian drones are more than A.I. alone can overcome. Short-range missiles, especially on mobile launchers, can survive even in a world of constant blanket surveillance. If planners had dreams of a final victory for remote-controlled warfare, in Iran they have awakened to a harder reality.

[night shuttle]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/world/middleeast/cia-us-airman-rescue-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YlA.NH2a.tUJIDGqv6XPU&smid=url-share (gift)

Would be interesting if anyone saw this on social media: "While it is unclear exactly what the deception plan involved or how successful it was precisely, the C.I.A. campaign aimed to spread word in Iran that the airman had been found and was moving out of the country in a ground convoy. The hope was that the Iranians would shift their search efforts from the place where the airman was thought to be, to the roads out of the region.

The C.I.A.’s operation did appear to cause confusion and uncertainty among the Iranian forces hunting for the airman, according to a senior administration official."

[languid bloom]

jack murphy posted on threads that he had been found and rescued

when the firefight may have been at its most intense

[waxen rock]

is there a source on when the firefight was most intense?

[night shuttle]

What I thought would be interesting is instances in Farsi where a ground convoy was specifically named

[languid bloom]

@waxen rock no only rumors based on middle east monitor reports and unverified videos of dead civilians supposedly involved in firefight

like this one

[night shuttle]

so we always need links, not screenshots

[languid bloom]

sorry they did not share source and im not familiar with middle east monitor delete if necessary

[novel sail]

And how many people would see it in Iran? Isnt internet heavily restricted?

[night shuttle]

so as a person interested in open source information, you can look up middle east spectator yourself - https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30246

that was we don't have to do the next step of verifying the screenshot is real

[night shuttle]

is this rhetorical?

[languid bloom]

thanks i wasnt familiar. dang telegram huh ok time to download and configure some apps. thx again

[night shuttle]

re: Iranians being online, the internet finds a way https://vxtwitter.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2039320643955511542?s=20

Ghoncheh Habibiazad | غنچه (@GhonchehAzad)

Iran: Despite the government-imposed internet blackout, I’ve been able to stay in daily contact with some Iranians who have found ways to stay online.

They describe emotional scenes as rifts are opening up over the war.

Here’s my report for the BBC.

▶ Play video

vxTwitter / fixvx · Apr 1, 2026, 12:35 PM

[languid bloom]

how did you create a link to that post on telegram so that i may do so in the future

[night shuttle]

you'll want to look for a similar arrow icon and then "copy share link"

[shadow vortex]

Question regarding the Planet Labs censorship: do the (expensive) Chinese alternatives have up-to-date, publicly available satellite imagery of the exact areas being covered up?

[novel sail]

Just wondering.

[night shuttle]

okay, because I don't have an answer, but media is getting out 🙂

[fossil summit]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war

archive: https://archive.is/I6DRR

[neon steeple]

I’m accustomed to hearing crazy things at this point, but this might take the cake

[midnight horizon]

Since there is no way of knowing whether there is any basis in truth in messages like this, it is better suited to #1330709161385922650 message . You will even find that it has already been posted there.

[weak pike]

A somewhat rhetorical question at this stage, but would the military targeting process be doing worse than the current baseline without AI input? I don't think we'll have a clear answer to that until an in-depth after action report and continous improvement paper is released (which may not be public anytime soon).

[glad vector]

Here's a really good discussion about how "AI" matters for targeting, and how it doesn't https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/mar/26/ai-got-the-blame-for-the-iran-school-bombing-the-truth-is-far-more-worrying

[radiant kiln]

https://xcancel.com/History__Speaks/status/2040888599311450167

[the article in question, the third paragraph from the end: https://archive.ph/wrpcV]

[weak pike]

Agreed, that the Guardian article seems more competent and better reflects the experience I gained over my time in the UK Reaper Force.

[naive iron]

Has any information come out about the possibility that some or all of the downed aircraft (c-130s and helicopters) might have been flying autonomously?

[woeful oar]

In what sense?

[naive iron]

As in uncrewed

[hot sun]

Who has suggested that?

[midnight horizon]

I haven't heard or seen anything about it. And the planes, at least, weren't flying when they were destroyed. Can you show us your sources?

[naive iron]

I can try to find them again, but it was online speculation. I'm not claiming that they were, I was just curious if anyone had seen any indications.

[south sluice]

I don't know that it would make any sense for any of the involved aircraft to be flying autonomously

[midnight horizon]

I don't see why they would, really. They sent about a hundred people there anyway, what would be the reason?

Ah, snap

[south sluice]

maybe the C-130s that were being used as tankers for the helicopters

but the helicopters are useless without the CSAR teams on board

[midnight horizon]

I think we can put this aside until there is something more substantial than an internet rumour.

[novel sail]

https://www.flyingmag.com/military-design-review-autonomous-c-130j/ Doesnt sounds like they have that ability yet.

[naive iron]

Absolutely, I was just wondering if anyone had seen anything. I should have come with more information.

[shadow vortex]

On Israel's limited, escalatory and murderous toolkit:
https://x.com/i/status/2040528307662585976

Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la)

The IDF has informed the Israeli cabinet that the air war has reached the limits of its effectiveness in its current form of focusing on military targets. Ron Ben Yishai, Israel's premier military analyst says Israel is considering two paths:

1) Gradual infrastructure

X · Apr 4, 2026, 8:33 PM

[tiny path]

Who is Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, and is anything in that post covered by a news organization?

[waxen rock]

https://archive.ph/BtmSs

There are roughly 2,000 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf with more than 20,000 seafarers on them, according to the International Maritime Organization.
...
Fresh vegetables and fresh water for showering and laundry are running out on many ships, so the sailors are using social media and very-high-frequency marine radios to share survival tips and tactics. Some Chinese crew members have filmed themselves collecting condensate from air-conditioning units for their nondrinking water needs.

[shadow vortex]

He's a liberal academic and activist from Israel.
He states at the start that he is summarizing what one of Israel's most decorated war correspondants and academicians, Ron Ben-Yishai, is reporting.
I figured it was originally in Hebrew but Ben-Yishai actually published in English: https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/rjq11wkyhze

[void roost]

https://www.threads.com/@truthbyhaig/post/DWxIduQji9v

[near grail]

It's on Twitter/X also, already suspicions of AI:
https://fixupx.com/Shayan86/status/2040895613395439907

Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86)

@mosavimajd313 That's AI-generated, and has not been published by any of Mojtaba Khamenei's official accounts or Iranian media outlets

**💬 2 🔁 10 ❤️ 140 👁️ 7.6K **

FixupX · Apr 5, 2026, 8:53 PM

something about oversized elevator doors with a glowing red button seems off to me too 🤔

[void roost]

I assumed it was not real video but it is interesting that it points to Dimona. The end of the video was tagged in Farsi but not sure who made it.

[near grail]

eh, even if the base video is AI-generated, it's not a tall order to use normal video editing to show whatever they want on that overexposed screen at the end.

[thin nest]

A somewhat tongue-in-cheek recap of the story of the F15E crash and rescue, with sources for various statements along the way. Wondering if we'll ever get the true story of what happened. https://fixupx.com/i/status/2040995918192005310

Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand)

So, if I got that right, here's the narrative:
︀︀
︀︀- A US F-15E fighter jet got shot down over Iran, despite Trump saying 2 days beforehand in his nationwide address that Iran has "no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated." (apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transcript-address-iran-war-b5970011fe934dde84d95d650bda56a9))
︀︀
︀︀- The plane's weapons systems officer - a "highly respected Colonel," according to Trump - ejected from the plane and got "seriously wounded" (still according to Trump: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116351956955900185))
︀︀
︀︀- He still managed to "hike up a 7,000-foot [2.1km] mountain ridgeline and hide in a crevice" in the Zagros Mountains, despite his wounds (time.com/article/2026/04/05/-safe-and-sound-how-a-u-s-airman-shot-down-in-iran-was-rescued-from-a-mountain-crevice/))
︀︀
︀︀- U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones started killing all "Iranian military-aged males believed to be a threat who got within…

FixupX · Apr 6, 2026, 3:32 AM

[fossil summit]

This was retweeted apart of the thread https://xcancel.com/hippyygoat/status/2040905019545866395#m

[charred silo]

How do pictures of the destroyed aircraft prove or disprove the notion that it was a successful operation?

[fossil summit]

not my commentary. Sharing the video in case it’s useful.

[fallen spear]

I understand screenshots aren't normally what we want, but I'll include both this and the link so you don't have to join another discord server to see it.
#1161780359332118628 message

This is the poster:
https://airandspace.si.edu/support/wall-of-honor/lt-col-craig-j-walker

[tiny path]

Discord doesn't let me attempt to join that server, suggesting it's private.

The text of the screenshot is difficult to interpret. Can you clarify what's attempting to be said by it?

[fallen spear]

Sure, I'm just someone with an interest in these topics rather than an SME, but I'll tell you how it reads.

"Csar coord card" will be Combat Search And Rescue coordination card, ie a document listing the aircraft assigned to that CSAR mission, callsigns, radio frequencies etc.

"Bone" is a B-1 bomber, from "B-One", GBU-31 is a 2000lb class JDAM, coordinate seeking weapon. That's 96 weapons total across 4 B-1s.

The "Sandy" mission is to search for, and then protect the downed aircrew. This appears to refer to the A-10 that was damaged and ejected. "Feet wet" being the point where it crossed the land/sea border ("feet dry" is the opposite).

"Telephone pole" is often used to refer to large surface to air missiles. ie, size of.

"Flying the cables" likely refers to manual flight controls, ie with cables directly connecting the controls to the aerodynamic surfaces. Suggests a loss or degradation of the normal systems. Think driving a car with failed power steering.

Ditching a missile is evading it, by whatever countermeasures and manoeuvres they used. Particularly in a "last ditch" scenario.

Calling in a 10 digit grid will be the pilot making a detailed radio transmission while doing the above evasion.

MC refers to the MC-130, Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) variant of the C-130 cargo/transport plane.

"Below mins" could refer to either fuel or altitude. Essentially the pilot is taking a risk.

Vipers are F-16s.

It's the Middle East channel of the 10 Percent True podcast, which interviews aircrew.

[tiny path]

Thank you - is there (open source) evidence that the Discord user is Col. Walker?

(and that Col. Walker would have direct knowledge of what happened in Iran?)

[fallen spear]

There will be, but it'll probably be somewhere in an hours long podcast along the lines of "he goes by Spectrepilot on the discord". What I can say now is that the blue name indicates a role assigned to SMEs within that Discord, which is run by author/podcaster Steve Davies.

He would not have direct knowledge as he is retired, what he's reporting is what he's heard via "the bro network", ie informal communications between members of that community.

[regal trout]

Are we seeing an increase in tempo among the bases in Djibouti?

https://www.africanews.com/2026/03/13/us-israel-war-against-iran-the-us-base-in-djibouti-a-potential-target/ "another US base could become a target for Iran and its allies, this time in Africa. Based in Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier is the only permanent US military base on the continent.

It houses about 4,000 US military personnel and serves as a key location for US operations in the Horn of Africa.

But Djibouti is located just across Yemen, where Houthis rebels maintain close ties with Iran. The Houthis have not stepped up to the current between Iran, and Israel and the US."

[midnight horizon]

What do you mean by tempo?

[regal trout]

Increase in exercises, drills, logistics, and over all critical nature of the passage of time itself,

There are other countries' bases in Djibouti too. US has Camp Lemmonier and Chabelly drone airbase. Chinese, Japanese, French and English bases coexist in Djibouti City

[viral storm]

This is still a necessary thing to confirm in OSINT. An hours long podcast is still data that can be collected and parsed for accuracy and bias, even if it takes time out from someone's day.

If you can point folks to the episode, we can at least begin the process.

[fallen spear]

Sure, here's what I can get you for now. There are four full length episodes with him on this channel totalling around 8 hours, but what I'm linking here is a timestamp on one where the image overlaid on the bottom left is the same as the Discord profile picture.

There's also a comment reply from a user with the same name of SpectrePilot, which links to a channel with videos of him flying a CV-22 with most of "Walker" visible on his name tag.

https://youtu.be/B-3UjD9jIlc?t=2688

[shadow vortex]

Related: Yoav Gallant seems to suggest that flattening Iran will push them towards a point if capitulation:
https://x.com/ireallyhateyou/status/2040922564218777925?s=20
As the thread shows, he has been saying this for some time, and there has been talk of a "Dahiya doctrine" against Tehran since at least the 12 day war (I think I posted something about it back then).

B.M. (@ireallyhateyou)

"The US has the ability to do whatever it wants in Iran. To destroy heavy industry, hit the oil, hit the bridges, hit production sites, turn Tehran flat. Everything's doable."

Wanted war criminal Yoav Gallant yesterday on Channel 12. Genocidal logic is the only logic they know.

▶ Play video

X · Apr 5, 2026, 10:40 PM

[weak pike]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-06/us-intelligence-chinese-satellite-imagery-middle-east/106508322

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/2041111287778693252?s=20
Defense Minister Israel Katz: "The IDF has now strongly attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Islawiya. Now the two facilities, which together are responsible for about 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports, have been taken out of use and are not functioning."

Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1)

שר הביטחון ישראל כ"ץ: "צה"ל תקף כעת בעוצמה את המתקן הפטרוכימי הגדול ביותר באיראן שנמצא בעיסלאוויה. כעת שני המתקנים, שאחראים יחד לכ-85% מהייצוא הפטרוכימי של איראן - הוצאו מכלל שימוש ואינם מתפקדים".

X · Apr 6, 2026, 11:10 AM

[near grail]

Folks have pointed it out to me before too, but if you change it to fixupx and add /en at the end, it will embed a translated tweet 🙂

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-vows-hell-iran-if-strait-stays-shut-says-deal-is-possible-2026-04-06/

archive: https://archive.is/1PptF

[timid jungle]

International Atomic Energy Agency: independent analysis of recent satellite imagery confirms military strikes near Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

The plant itself has not been damaged.

https://vxtwitter.com/iaeaorg/status/2041109442553352609

IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg)

Based on its independent analysis of new satellite imagery and detailed knowledge of the site, the IAEA can confirm recent impacts of military strikes close to Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), including one just 75 metres from the site perimeter. The BNPP itself has not been damaged, the IAEA’s analysis of the 5 April imagery shows.

Once again, IAEA Director General @rafaelmgrossi warns that continued military activity near the BNPP - an operating plant with large amounts of nuclear fuel - could cause a severe radiological accident with harmful consequences for people and the environment in Iran and beyond.

Regardless of the nature of the intended targets, DG Grossi says such attacks pose a very real danger to nuclear safety and must stop. DG Grossi reiterates call for all parties to fully respect the 7 indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and security during a conflict. A nuclear facility and surrounding areas should never be struck, DG Grossi sa…

vxTwitter / fixvx · Apr 6, 2026, 11:03 AM

[azure glade]

If Wikimapia can be believed, the Bushehr site is heavily militarized, with SAM sites inside the plant boundary in several locations, and other AAA bases nearby:
https://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=28.843734&lon=50.890989&z=14&v=1&show=/17196511/VLADS-SAM-Site-(Iran-Nuke-Site-Bushehr-Sector)

The edits seem to all be 16 years old, mind you.

[tiny path]

I'm not sure I follow that logic. SAMs and AAA are defensive installations, which make sense if you're worried that someone wants to bomb your facility. There are, reportedly, similar installations on/near The White House. Does that make it 'heavily militarized'?

[azure glade]

Militarized means there are military targets. A thousand troops with small arms in trenches would also be 'defensive.' The plant isn't a military target, and heavy air defense for nuclear plants is unusual, but SAMs are the highest priority targets nationwide.

[junior root]

Does anyone have more confirmation or info on reports of a strike on Sharif University?

https://bsky.app/profile/tparsi.bsky.social/post/3mise7y4pys2g

Trita Parsi (@tparsi.bsky.social)

Disgraceful!

The US/Israel just bombed Sharif University in Tehran. This is not only Iran's best university, but also a top 100 global university in the field of Civil Engineering.

It has also been a center of student opposition to the Iranian gov

And Trump just bombed it...

Reposts

446

Likes

721

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Apr 6, 2026, 3:48 AM

https://apnews.com/video/ict-building-at-tehrans-sharif-university-of-technology-reduced-to-rubble-after-more-us-israeli-strikes-b9a5dcd64f444ad193f8b68dd08b9be7

[hot sun]

Heavy air defences on a powerplant are not uncommon when being bombed by a country who has threatened to target powerplants.

[timid jungle]

Footage and POV geolocation via BBC Persian Forensic's Ghoncheh Habibiazad:

https://fixupx.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2041086814585274645/en

Ghoncheh Habibiazad | غنچه (@GhonchehAzad)

Iran - US and Israel war
︀︀
︀︀Video shows the aftermath of strikes on Sharif University of Technology in Tehran.
︀︀POV: 35.700202, 51.350797
︀︀@GeoConfirmed
︀︀
︀︀Iranian outlets said the university's computing centre and graphics processing units (GPUs) were damaged.

**🔁 8 ❤️ 8 👁️ 1.2K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 6, 2026, 9:33 AM

[shadow vortex]

https://fixupx.com/i/status/2040997481874350292/en

Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa)

📑 Translated from language_fa

The pistachio warehouses of Iranian Pistachio Company near Rafsanjan Airport were targeted by American/Israeli fighter jets in the first week of Farvardin. Geolocation: 30.3149, 56.0312 maps.app.goo.gl/Vo6ZjgZ4ZaZo8sav6

Original text
انبارهای پسته شرکت پسته ایرانیان در نزدیکی فرودگاه رفسنجان در هفته اول فروردین، هدف جنگنده های آمریکایی/اسرائیلی قرار گرفته است. جئولوکیشن:
︀︀30.3149, 56.0312
︀︀maps.app.goo.gl/Vo6ZjgZ4ZaZo8sav6

**💬 21 🔁 68 ❤️ 508 👁️ 157.9K **

FixupX · Apr 6, 2026, 3:38 AM

[azure glade]

"Power plants" and "nuclear power plants" are very different things. Russia for instance has fired thousands upon thousands of missiles and drones at Ukrainian power plants and we still haven't seen deliberate strikes on the grounds of an operating nuclear plant.

[hot sun]

That's not true, Zaporozhye was shelled early on. https://www.nti.org/risky-business/what-happened-at-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-and-what-are-the-implications/

[novel sail]

Not to mention Tjernobyl.

[hot sun]

The Chernobyl containment structure was also hit with drones. I believe some of the reactors are still operational there too, or were.

[novel sail]

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-56?activeTab=
1. Works or installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.

[azure glade]

No reactors have been operational at Chernobyl since 2000. (It's also worth pointing out that there was no air defense fire targeting the drone that hit the NSC, and wartime air defenses seem to have all been places several kilomters away from the plant.) And an accidental strike is still a reasonable explanation there.

Zaporizhzhia was stormed by ground troops, and some ancillary buildings caught a few 30mm autocannon rounds when paramilitary security guards defended them. That's about it. There's a world of difference between the psychological games that went on over the years at ZNPP (zero expectation or intention of doing any actual damage to plant infrastructure beyond off-site power lines) and an actual strike on Bushehr that you would expect to stop with air defense.

[tiny path]

People are responding to this:

we still haven't seen deliberate strikes on the grounds of an operating nuclear plant.

Which is prima facie false.

[novel sail]

And i think the key is *if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. * since it implies that you can strike for example a AA-installation on the site, as long as the reactor itself isnt harmed.

[tiny path]

But this is https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1473081625775706295 and not https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/709766067936821310. Having defensive weapons installed at nuclear bases does not make them military targets. As Palt cited above, that nuance does not exist in international treaties.

[hot sun]

Attacking an AA site nearby MAY cause the release of dangerous substances, and therefore would not be allowed.

[novel sail]

Also: . The Parties to the conflict shall endeavour to avoid locating any military objectives in the vicinity of the works or installations mentioned in paragraph 1. Nevertheless, installations erected for the sole purpose of defending the protected works or installations from attack are permissible and shall not themselves be made the object of attack, provided that they are not used in hostilities except for defensive actions necessary to respond to attacks against the protected works or installations and that their armament is limited to weapons capable only of repelling hostile action against the protected works or installations.

[hot sun]

The rhetoric from the American side has been extremely severe. They've talked about "flattening" Iran by targeting powerplants and civilian infrastructure. No one should be surprised the Iranians are putting air defences around nuclear powerplants.

[azure glade]

Well there you go. SAMs are capable of more than repelling hostile action against the plant. There are port facilities and (if you believe WikiMapia) anti-ship missile facilities right outside the plant perimeter, which would fall into the SAMs engagement zone. They would also complicate targeting and maneuvering for strikes on the military airfield right next door.

If you ask me, high explosive warheads and rocket fuel have no places on the grounds of nuclear plants. They malfunction all the time and pose a threat to their own facilities.

[tiny path]

This is veering away from open source information and more towards opinion and conjecture. Can we move it back towards reporting?

[carmine flame]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSjpA1Py-VE

Press conference over the recovery of the USAF pilots, live now.

[weak pike]

https://archive.is/MRWM3

From Tom Sharpe in the Telegraph:
"If the US Navy can’t open the Strait of Hormuz, it’s mad to suggest anyone else can.
We remain locked in a situation that Iran controls and that no amount of bombs will change."

[novel sail]

That was a ride.

[glad vector]

Apologies for bringing it up again but it's simply false ZNPP wasn't struck after it was captured
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-05/news/drones-hit-zaporizhzhia-reactor-building

IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi reported during an emergency meeting of the agency’s Board of Governors that drones struck several buildings at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex on April 7, including a “direct hit on the reactor dome of Unit 6.”

[azure glade]

By 'strike' I mean 'something actually intended to do damage' with a heavy weapon.

Flying a hand grenade up on a Temu quadcopter fell under the heading of 'psychological games.' It might as well have been a strike with a paintball gun or slingshot.

[timid vine]

Who is this guy? Could you explain so that I (and anyone else who does not know him) can understand the significance of him writing this?

[weak pike]

https://www.rusi.org/people/sharpe-obe

Ex Royal Navy officer -
"Prior to this, Sharpe served for over 25 years in the Royal Navy, the last five of which were spent in military plans and communications. His final appointment was as the MoD’s Naval spokesman.

The previous years were spent at sea in a variety of warships. He commanded four, including the UK’s Ice Patrol Vessel, for which he was appointed OBE for his role in saving her during a flood. His frigate command saw him act as anti-submarine commander for two US carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf and, closer to home, protecting the UK’s nuclear deterrent. Sharpe has a BA (Hons) in Defence Studies and a MA in International Relations from King’s College, London."

[timid vine]

Thank you

[tiny path]

Sourced information, not opinion.

[azure glade]

There is a certain level of common sense background knowledge that has to be assumed if we are talking about weapons.
You might as well be asking me to cite a source proving what a grenade is.

[tiny path]

Your posts are assuming specialized uses of common words. That's neither helpful nor appropriate.

If you want to argue that ZNPP wasn't struck by munitions, find an IAEA report that agrees with you and post it in #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe.

[void roost]

http://bit.ly/3NYwOLX

[void roost]

https://on.wsj.com/4ttErZE

1. The U.S. and Israel have a set of targets lined up in Iran designed to cripple the country’s economy and ensure the regime’s recovery from this war is long and painful.

Israel is awaiting authorization from Washington this week to begin striking Iran’s energy facilities, an Israeli official said, potentially undermining output in one of the world’s major oil-and-gas producers.

2. In a Wall Street Journal interview, President Trump said Sunday the U.S. was prepared to hit all of Iran’s bridges and power plants, creating enough damage that it would “take 20 years to rebuild, if they’re lucky, if they have a country.”

https://www.threads.com/@yasharali/post/DWzVKoYAd6d?

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-next-target-for-the-u-s-and-israel-is-irans-economy-0f5f0d80?st=ZSRhSW&reflink=article_copyURL_share

[weak pike]

https://www.twz.com/news-features/how-a-dusty-stri-deep-in-iran-can-be-turned-into-a-u-s-special-operations-base-in-hours

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/phildstewart/status/2041173545342931145?s=20
Very interesting.

Phil Stewart (@phildstewart)

TRUMP ON IRAN: GUNS WERE SUPPOSED TO GO TO PROTESTERS BUT A CERTAIN GROUP OF PEOPLE KEPT THEM

X · Apr 6, 2026, 3:17 PM

[weak pike]

https://news.usni.org/2026/04/06/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-april-6-2026

[void roost]

http://reut.rs/3OkXyX6

[radiant kiln]

I would not be surprised if there are few Iranians in Iran who are ok with Iran being nuked, but I'm somewhat surprised BBC editors decided to include such a quote.
Stumbled on this through: https://xcancel.com/malonebarry/status/2041297866166022645
Original: https://web.archive.org/web/20260406160942/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl0ng8z0do
The updated version does not have this first paragraph about him being ok with Iran being nuked. https://web.archive.org/web/20260406211916/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgl0ng8z0do

[rustic pivot]

huh
https://fxtwitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/2041301334515667056?s=20

Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton)

Today, the brave men and women of Arkansas’ 142nd Field Artillery Brigade depart for the Middle East.
︀︀
︀︀Arkansas is thankful for their service. May God protect them.

**💬 132 🔁 127 ❤️ 1.1K 👁️ 72.9K **

FxTwitter · Apr 6, 2026, 11:45 PM

[mint moon]

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2026/apr/06/at-least-600-come-to-send-off-ceremony-in/ It's only 130 troops going.

[near grail]

https://thehill.com/homenews/5818790-pentagon-briefing-iran-canceled/

A scheduled press briefing set to take place at 8 a.m. on Tuesday at the Pentagon has been canceled.

The briefing, which was to be conducted by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth alongside Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, was set to come just 12 hours before a deadline set by President Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face bombardment on powerplant and bridge facilities.

[mint moon]

https://www.twz.com/land/thaad-kill-vehicles-infrared-seeker-appears-to-have-been-found-in-syria-intact

[weak pike]

https://www.twz.com/news-features/everything-we-now-know-about-the-operation-to-rescue-the-f-15e-wso

[void roost]

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892256

[timid jungle]

New Maritime incident: container ship attacked, no injuries reported

https://vxtwitter.com/UK_MTO/status/2041452380743475691

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO WARNING 032-26

Click here to read the full warning⤵️
http://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260407_ukmto_warning_032_26.pdf?rev=c70ca23dd1af4030bf856f3c8ef1285a

#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec

vxTwitter / fixvx · Apr 7, 2026, 9:45 AM

[midnight salmon]

Axios reporter: The U.S. military conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg island, U.S. official says https://fxtwitter.com/BarakRavid/status/2041476986049036588#m

Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid)

The U.S. military conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg island, U.S. official says

**💬 4 🔁 29 ❤️ 68 👁️ 7.7K **

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 11:23 AM

[near grail]

It's up on Reuters too, so not just a tweet:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-strikes-military-targets-irans-kharg-island-us-official-says-2026-04-07/

[near grail]

Military targets similar to those in March:
https://xcancel.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2041484650460152030

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/TehranTimes79/status/2041479102021124287?s=20

Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79)

The Tomahawk missile struck Tehran’s Molavi market — failed to detonate

X · Apr 7, 2026, 11:32 AM

[sinful pagoda]

Bellingcat has released a really cool tool to contrast changes in Sentinel SAR imagery to explore likely destruction in the Gulf 👀 https://bellingcat-ee.projects.earthengine.app/view/middle-east-change

Here the article about it, a must before using the tool! https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2026/04/07/tool-damage-assessment-destruction-sentinel-satellite-imagery-iran-us-gulf/

[arctic fog]

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892330

I'm going to be so pissed if we have to pay 5 dollars a gallon in the foreseeable future.

[tiny path]

(for context, that's $1.32 per liter)

[serene walrus]

https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2041536306614767704

Iran International English (@IranIntl_En)

Iran's state-run Tehran Times now reporting that "diplomatic and indirect channels of talks with the US are not closed."

The Wall Street Journal earlier reported, citing regional officials, that Iran had just cut off "direct" communications with the US, not talks with mediators.

X · Apr 7, 2026, 3:19 PM

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/04/07/pakistan-to-stand-with-saudi-arabia-per-defense-pact-if-iran-war-escalates-official

I don't know if Pakistan has the space to assist in an intervention, I know they're doing shit in afghanistan but I will admit I have no idea how that's been going

[keen spear]

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-italy-guido-crosetto-nuclear-escalation-iran/

[weak pike]

Judging from that brief war between India and Pakistan last year, we know that Pakistan has at least a half decent air force. They reportly used the Chinese exported J-10 fighter with the PL-15 and AEW to bring down Indian Rafales. How that would translate into operations against Iran is an unknown, but it'd give them a chance to test their capabilities against Iranian Shahed drones and similar.

[novel sail]

Iranian air defense is pretty much gone so they would be able to fly around uncontested. Problem however would be to intervene against Iranian drones and missile launchers if they want to help the Saudis.

[undone bison]

https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3miw7j6rjdk2a

News Eye (@newseye.bsky.social)

Channel 13 in Israel is now broadcasting a giant countdown clock…

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Apr 7, 2026, 4:35 PM

[weak pike]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/06/wall-street-firm-sends-analyst-to-the-strait-of-hormuz-heres-what-they-found-out.html#amp_tf=From %251%24s&aoh=17755759912669&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2026%2F04%2F06%2Fwall-street-firm-sends-analyst-to-the-strait-of-hormuz-heres-what-they-found-out.html

"Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here's what they learned - The analyst found that vessels are still moving through the strait, with traffic picking up recently to about 15 ships per day, Citrini's Substack report said."

[serene walrus]

yeah What's Going On With Shipping noted (as I said above) that it seems like some ships are starting to run the strait by going right by oman

[weak pike]

Yeah it's an interesting article but a flawed one as I couldn't find any indication it in that they researched which vessels were allowed to transit the SOH by Iran, and which went for it anyway.

[serene walrus]

the most the article indicates one way or another is that they seem to go dark on the maritime trackers

i wonder if iranians sitting in Qeshim can see all the way across the strait and see the boats

[waxen rock]

and in addition to the ships that paid a toll, some are iranian

[serene walrus]

Google maps says it's about a 42 mile distance

(the point is right around where Sal says based on what he's seen on the trackers where the runners go by

[weak pike]

I believe they can in good conditions in daylight. I'm not so sure if they can at night - it depends if the observers have access to NVGs or similar equipment. I'd take an educated guess that any primary radar systems on the SOH have been destroyed by airstirkes.

[tiny path]

Key in that is 'guesses', yes.
The ability to see over the curvature of the earth requires height for both the observer and the object.

[serene walrus]

yeah I found a calculator, to see across the strait to that point you need a viewpoint at about 1300 feet for the horizon to be beyond 42 miles

[tiny path]

(combined height, but cuddles got it)

[serene walrus]

which is like what a 13 story building or something

wait no off by a factor of 10 lol, that's a 130 story building

[tiny path]

This would be a nearby building that'd be able to see that distance:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23_Marina

(so, to answer the hypothetical: no. Iran does not have a tower high enough to see across the entire strait)

[serene walrus]

could throw a drone up probably, perhaps they are doing that? That's just a guess on my part though but iran certainly has the capability to do so

[timid jungle]

7 April - Advisory issued by India's embassy in Iran

Indian citizens advised to say in place for next 48 hours.

https://fixupx.com/India_in_Iran/status/2041515164290240827/en

India in Iran (@India_in_Iran)

⚠️ Advisory as on 07 April 2026.

**💬 100 🔁 1.4K ❤️ 8.9K 👁️ 493.8K **

FixupX · Apr 7, 2026, 1:55 PM

[weak pike]

I'm not sure if this has been posted before, apologies if so. But it reads as though the shipping lanes are only 2 miles wide. I'm sure someone who is a seafarer could provide more insight, but the bottom line is that it could well be unsafe to hug the UAE/Oman coast line in a huge tanker with AIS off. Especially at night, and if other ships are also trying to run the gauntlet using the same tactic.

"A common mistake is to imagine the whole strait as one open, unstructured corridor. In practice, shipping is organized through traffic lanes. Britannica notes that the strait is about 35 to 60 miles wide overall, but the inbound and outbound tanker lanes are each about 2 miles wide, separated by a 2-mile buffer zone. Those lanes lie mostly in Omani territorial waters and partly in Iranian waters."

https://geographypin.com/strait-of-hormuz/

[serene walrus]

it's definitely unsafe, but Sal does note in the video I mentioned some time ago (relinked for convenience: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o9z-U0uZVM ) that some ships are in fact trying it nevertheless (he talks about it at the start)

[serene walrus]

from the video above, an image of what i'm referring to

here it is with depth charts

[azure glade]

Yeah, plenty deep everywhere

[timid jungle]

▶️ Speaking of deep waters, detailed discussion of navigating the SoH might be better suited for #maritime .

[novel sail]

The problem is that while individual ships can take a route closer to shore its hard to restore traffic that way, the shipping lanes are probably where they are for a reason so its probably not that easy to move the lanes.

[timid jungle]

IDF Farsi is sharing purported footage of Iranian civilians gathering near power plants ahead of today's US-imposed deadline.

https://fixupx.com/IDFFarsi/status/2041563597923643402/en

ارتش دفاعی اسرائیل | IDF Farsi (@IDFFarsi)

📑 Translated from Arabic

Iran's Tourism Regime wants Iranian women and children to use the roads, boulevards, and highways in Iran as a means of humanitarian assistance! In the event that Mojtaba Rahbar does not reveal the beginning of the war, his workers are hidden in schools and bimarastans, and he is hidden behind zanuns and codecs who are in the front line. There is no reason to wonder, this is Iran's Terror and Scorpion program. It is a system that has no respect for human life and no regard for human life.

Original text
رژیم تروریستی ایران از زنان و کودکان خواست که اطراف نیروگاه‌ها، در جاده‌ها و در خطوط راه‌آهن در ایران بایستند و به‌عنوان سپر انسانی استفاده شوند!
︀︀
︀︀در حالی که مجتبی رهبر از آغاز جنگ خود را نشان نداده است، عوامل او در مدارس و بیمارستان‌ها پنهان م…

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 7, 2026, 5:07 PM

[serene walrus]

Allegedly the government put out a call to gather: https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3miu4rq4zhk23

I don't know farsi and don't quite know what to search to find that missive, or where it could be

Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)

Iranian government, through the Ministry of Sports and Youth, says it is calling on the "Iranian youth," including "athletes, artists, students," to gather at 2 PM tomorrow around the country's power plants.

Likes

125

Bluesky · Apr 6, 2026, 8:41 PM

[timid jungle]

https://fixupx.com/DrAlirezaRahimi/status/2041111936893325558/en

علیرضا رحیمی (@DrAlirezaRahimi)

📑 Translated from language_fa

I invite all youth, cultural and artistic figures, athletes, and champions to the national campaign "Iranian Youth's Human Chain for a Bright Tomorrow." Tomorrow, Tuesday at 14:00, beside power plants across the country, with every belief and taste, we will stand hand in hand to say: Attacking public infrastructure is a war crime. #جوانان_برای_ایران

Original text
همه جوانان، چهره‌های فرهنگی و هنری، ورزشکاران و قهرمانان را به پویش ملی «زنجیره انسانی جوانان ایران برای فردای روشن» دعوت می‌کنم.
︀︀
︀︀فردا، سه‌شنبه ساعت ۱۴، کنار نیروگاه‌های سراسر کشور، با هر عقیده و سلیقه‌ای، دست در دست هم می‌ایستیم تا بگوییم: حمله به زیرساخت‌های عمومی جنایت جنگی است.
︀︀
︀︀#جوانان_برای_ا…

FixupX · Apr 6, 2026, 11:13 AM

[serene walrus]

thank you

[void roost]

https://www.threads.com/@anmonck/post/DW13FEPDFIJ?

[tiny path]

Is there a link to the original tweet?

[weak pike]

The US proved it can disrupt power supplies with minimal collateral damage in the 90s. If they could do that then, there should be weapons in the current arsenal that can do the same thing. I suppose the big question is, are there enough of them and, will they produce enough of a "civilisation ending" threat for the POTUS?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb

[near grail]

is there anything showing the use of these bombs so far that you could link?

[tiny path]

The Wikipedia article, with citations, has examples of when they were used by the US in the past.

[weak pike]

I've found an article stating that Israel may have already used them, but nothing confirming that the US has so far.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/new_weapon_in_iran_war_graphite_bombs_could_shut_down_electrical_infrastructure_without_physical_destruction-18035.html

[fossil summit]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1989566/dar-says-israeli-attack-on-iran-set-off-dangerous-developments-that-severely-damaged-peace-process

[void roost]

https://x.com/Moi_kuw/status/2041580005172604990?s=20

وزارة الداخلية (@Moi_kuw)

Statement (18) – Ministry of Interior

Due to current conditions, the Ministry is taking precautionary measures to ensure public safety and enhance emergency response.

For everyone’s safety, citizens and residents are urged to stay at home and only go out if absolutely

X · Apr 7, 2026, 6:12 PM

[fossil summit]

https://x.com/CMShehbaz/status/2041596151108137363

Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz)

Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend

X · Apr 7, 2026, 7:17 PM

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/us-bomber-activity-raf-fairford-161913270.html

[undone bison]

Did someone see a proof for the b52 UK rumor going around?

[balmy trail]

What B-52 rumour?

[fossil summit]

I’ve seen rumors that they’ve left RAF

[soft moth]

It's being widely reported, additionally:
https://fxtwitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2041591822913323343?s=20

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: Three KC-135R Stratotankers of the U.S. Air Force Reserve are now departing Bucharest Airport in Romania to refuel U.S. Air Force B-52H heavy bombers flown from RAF Fairford, UK, that are set to strike Iran’s bridges and power plants, a war crime carried out on the orders of U.S. President Trump.
︀︀
︀︀#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

**💬 11 🔁 108 ❤️ 271 👁️ 16.7K **

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 6:59 PM

[near grail]

https://xcancel.com/BarakRavid/status/2041602976985260238

[balmy trail]

Oh you guys mean they’ve left on an a sortie not departed the base for good. Well yeah, they’ve frequently been flying out of there as of late.

[soft moth]

TACO?

[near grail]

i'm hoping for TACO tuesday too 🙏

[void roost]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/06/trump-iran-war-greek-tragedy/

“The war in Iran is a strategic blunder of epic proportions. It not only shows the world that the United States is less powerful than commonly assumed, but it is also driving ill-will toward the country, while hollowing out U.S. military capabilities and future deterrence credibility. If the Trump administration does not find an off-ramp soon, then the end result may be tragic indeed.”

————————-

Can someone see if this is a real post on X. It wasn’t showing without sign in but Bennett is a WH correspondent for Roll Call. This is so dangerous

[near grail]

https://fxtwitter.com/BennettJohnT/status/2041562517168591312
edit: hm, xcancel doesn't work.

John T. Bennett (@BennettJohnT)

A White House official, granted anonymity to be candid, did not rule out the use of nuclear weapons.
︀︀
︀︀Asked how else Trump could make 90M people spread over the large Persian country “die” in one night, the official replied, “You’ll find out if Iran fails to make a deal by 8PM!”

**💬 41 🔁 226 ❤️ 591 👁️ 331.2K **

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 5:03 PM

[soft moth]

Jumping to commentary about nuclear weapon use, all the news agencies are quoting the The White House Rapid Response team post below. It's concerning that there is no official denial
https://fxtwitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2041520947019096411?s=20

also
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/we-asked-the-white-house-if-trump-was-considering-nuking-iran-its-response-was-chilling/

Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47)

Literally nothing @VP said here "implies" this, you absolute buffoons

Quoting Headquarters (@HQNewsNow)
︀
JD Vance doubles down on Trump’s new post threatening “a whole civilization will die tonight” and implies Trump might use nuclear weapons

**💬 361 🔁 476 ❤️ 3.3K 👁️ 342.2K **

▶ Play video

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 2:18 PM

[near grail]

followup on abduction of the journalist Shelley Kittleson, seems they (Khatib Hezbollah) are willing to release her:
https://xcancel.com/alexplitsas/status/2041549020091343266
https://xcancel.com/alexplitsas/status/2041582826114478395

[void roost]

Current CISA advisory for Iranian threat to logic controllers https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories/aa26-097a

https://www.threads.com/@osintel.news/post/DW2BcDXjlXx?

B2s spotted

Original FB post https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1aNS5MGA26/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[real lantern]

The FB post says they were above Wappinger NY at 10:30 am local time, heading west

[carmine flame]

https://x.com/Vahid/status/2041614269498696061

Airstrike reported on "Arak Aluminum Factory" (IRALCO)

Vahid Online (@Vahid)

'#اراک ۲۳:۴۵'
عکس دریافتی با شرح: بمباران کارخانه آلومینیوم اراک #ایرالکو'
سه‌شنبه ۱۸ فروردین #Iran

X · Apr 7, 2026, 8:29 PM

[waxen rock]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-negotiations.html

Three Iranian officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive diplomacy, as did other diplomats who discussed the matter, said Iran had stopped engaging even in indirect talks through mediators with the Trump administration.

While Iran left open the possibility that Pakistan could serve as a conduit if talks resumed, the response suggests that Mr. Trump’s dramatic threat, which one U.S. official said was intended to force Iranian concessions, may have backfired.

[serene walrus]

Tehran Times apparently contradicts this: https://x.com/TehranTimes79/status/2041524237593170001 and they're Iranian media

Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79)

#BREAKING
Diplomatic and indirect channels of talks with the US are not CLOSED.

X · Apr 7, 2026, 2:31 PM

[waxen rock]

that same NYT article says

One current and one former U.S. diplomat described the negotiations as disorganized and confusing. Adding to the fog is the fractured nature of Iran’s leadership, which has been decimated by U.S. and Israeli attacks. Negotiations have only become more difficult, U.S. officials say, as Iran’s surviving leaders avoid communications and meetings that might expose them to assassination.
it's not really surprising that different people are giving different signals

[shadow vortex]

I have been trying to find out whether we have evidence of a division of labor between the US and Israel.
i.e Is the US mainly going for military and industrial targets while Israel goes for the universities, residential builds and other civilian targets.
Legal analysis might be extremely messy due to their level of cooperation and potentially differing doctrines regarding civilian targets.
Would appreciate any links to any efforts to ascribe responsibility for atrikes reliably and systematically.

[serene walrus]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmnp06jg2000i356r5p5o2990

CNN is staking a claim that a deal tonight is soon

Screenshot of the specific post:

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/2041624677911818336?s=20

jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill)

🚨A senior Iranian official told me that this proposal floated by the Pakistani PM for a temporary ceasefire is essentially the same as previous Trump attempts, which Iran has rejected. Iran has already delivered its terms for negotiating an end to the war.

“A balanced proposal,

X · Apr 7, 2026, 9:10 PM

[serene walrus]

There's some evidence of movement though:

This is the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan
https://fxtwitter.com/IranAmbPak/status/2041627992326344825#m

Reza Amiri Moghadam (@IranAmbPak)

As of now, a step forward from critical, sensitive stage ...
︀︀
︀︀In the next stage, respect and comity should be replaced by rethorics and redundancy.
︀︀
︀︀Stay more tuned...

Quoting Reza Amiri Moghadam (@IranAmbPak)
︀
Pakistan positive and productive endeavours in Good Will and Good Office to stop the war is approaching a critical, sensitive stage ...
︀︀
︀︀Stay Tuned for more

**💬 123 🔁 362 ❤️ 1.1K 👁️ 265.6K **

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 9:23 PM

though apparently contradiction is expected due to it being essentially live, but also the question is if anyone negotiating actually has pull to stop shooting on either respective side

[shadow vortex]

Slightly encouraging that there appears to be shock from both sides of the political aisle at Trump's ultimatum. Well, at least the wording of the last one.
https://x.com/i/status/2041586429164450028

Congressman Nathaniel Moran (@RepNateMoran)

The United States of America must always be prepared to use overwhelming military force when necessary to defend our national security interests and protect Americans at home and abroad.

And, a President should have the latitude to make decisions to that end, but only to the

X · Apr 7, 2026, 6:38 PM

[weak pike]

https://x.com/patrykrx/status/2041624857339658503

Patryk (@patrykrx)

The B-52s Trump sent to Iran have been sent back to base. Long your longs.

X · Apr 7, 2026, 9:11 PM

This could be a deception, but also could be a sign that tonight's strikes have been called off or at least reduced in scope.
(I'm also not sure how reliable the X account is, looking through the rest of their content.)

[serene walrus]

can we find those b-52s on what looks like flighttracker?

[sinful pagoda]

That account doesn't seem to be reliable and all we have here for that being the B-52s are a "trust me bro"

[mint moon]

B52 icons look different, too

[river sapphire]

technically all we have is a screenshot of two planes in flightradar doing a 180, everything else is unconfirmed and/or speculation

[hot sun]

Anyone even know where this is?

[sinful pagoda]

I just did

[mint moon]

Willing to bet it's this -135 and cellmate.

[sinful pagoda]

That's off the Island of Rhodes, Greece, and it's from a while ago.

Here one of the planes https://www.flightradar24.com/3f1b9cdb

[river sapphire]

looks a bit like the southern tip of Rhodos(?)

[waxen rock]

that account appears to be some sort of crypto scammer

[weak pike]

That would make sense to me as I couldn't find any B-52s on Flight Radar when I looked a few minutes ago

[river sapphire]

yeah so basically everything they said is wrong

[sinful pagoda]

It's ok, we all can be subject to disinformation, especially in environments of high uncertainty, that's why it's important to verify

[wanton saddle]

https://bsky.app/profile/en.afp.com/post/3miwtohkp3u2m

AFP News Agency (@en.afp.com)

#BREAKING: Trump agrees to suspend attack on Iran by two weeks

Bluesky · Apr 7, 2026, 10:36 PM

[river sapphire]

Source: Trumps Truth Social profile https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37658

[near grail]

Long live 🌮 Tuesday
Here is trumpstruth which archives them all and helps me avoid the hellsite:
https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37658

[river sapphire]

ohh thanks for the recommendation! Changed the link in my original post

[serene walrus]

that "subject to Iran doing a reopeniong of the strait of hormuz" makes me question that but we'll see

[river sapphire]

although I am outing myself as a non-native speaker, but: That means Iran has not yet agreed to the opening?

[serene walrus]

that's my current interpretation, we'd have to see what iran says

[weak pike]

Yeah, I'd agree that it reads as though the ball is now in Iran's court rather than actually confirmed.

BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?app-referrer=push-notification
Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz - follow live - BBC News

[mint moon]

And see if the B-52s return to Fairford with all their JAASMs

[waxen rock]

right. "i agree to a ceasefire, conditional on iran aceding to my demands. which they haven't done."

[river sapphire]

Okay, but under that interpretation his stance is just "we agree to the ceasefire as long as Iran meets the demands which we have made before and which they did not agree to before" right?

[safe osprey]

There are alerts of incoming missiles over Israel https://www.tzevaadom.co.il/en/

[tiny path]

This is clearly a breaking story; let's try to find what news sources are saying rather than jumping in with personal opinions.

[river sapphire]

NYTs WH reporter David E. Sanger seems to agree with the interpretation that Iran has not yet agreed

Source https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news/d35a703b-eaa8-5958-b49a-5af77e9dd178?smid=url-share

again as per NYT liveticker Iran has also agreed, interestingly enough after last minute intervention by the Chinese

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news/f03dea39-8a2d-5daa-805d-32dfe92f1400?smid=url-share

[near grail]

(they've made many claims about Mojtaba Khamenei in the last month, that portion might need to be verified 🤔)

[river sapphire]

CNN reports that Israel is also part of the ceasefire agreement

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmnp7miad00003b6s9x0ujhe8

[serene walrus]

that china armtwisted iran (if im understanding the NYT's framing correctly) is interesting but I do want to see what iran says before i commit to saying "we have a 2 week ceasefire"

[river sapphire]

"Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire" and "there will be a ceasefire of two weeks" of course are two completely different statements! Currently we can only puzzle together what media outlets are reporting

[weary escarp]

Yes, we'd have to wait for official statements from IRGC.

[young hamlet]

that's an important distinction, especially if Israel is party to this and Iran hits them again

[shadow vortex]

They have released statements already. Following it on the AJ Arabic Breaking News feed on X - they're posting it in bits.

[serene walrus]

https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3miwvb6ulcs2k Fars news apparently says Iran agrees but this isn't exactly what trump says

Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council claims Tehran achieved a “historic victory” over the U.S. and allies, says Washington agreed in principle to a 10-point plan including sanctions relief, non-aggression, and regional military withdrawal.-Fars News Agency

Bluesky · Apr 7, 2026, 11:04 PM

[shadow vortex]

Here's AJA with the statement in points: https://aja.ws/6af9ia?update=9074362

[serene walrus]

okay that is different from what trump said, kind of

[slender idol]

Per Axios…

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/iran-2-week-ceasfire-trump-pakistan

[void roost]

Long English version of Iranian statement https://www.threads.com/@ghostintel_/post/DW2TKUfgeE8?

[river sapphire]

!!! Google automatic translate !!!
From the statement here: https://aja.ws/6af9ia?update=9074362

[void roost]

These negotiations will begin with full confidence in the American side on Friday, April 21 in Islamabad, and Iran will allocate two weeks of time for these negotiations. This time can be extended by agreement of the parties. It is necessary to preserve the complete unity of the nation during this period and to continue the victory celebrations with strength.

[deep folio]

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026#0000019d-6a2b-d466-ab9f-7a2b54ab0000

[river sapphire]

As far as I understand there is still no consensus whether the US has agreed to these points (which Iran claims) or whether the US is ready to discuss on the basis of those points (which Trumps claims)

[slender idol]

Didn’t embed properly.

But I’m presuming your linking to either of these two posts…

[serene walrus]

https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/4z7SBQ4yiDXYnhJCTlnUwPKI9rYQlQt0OreNS5ITZTo/https/cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did%3Aplc%3Apnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreifrapqdf6xhwykxwmaxp2qyykum624mbj736nzaq2u4xbuwdzfyr4?format=webp&width=622&height=959

Different part of Iran says something also somewhat different

[deep folio]

yes, just the first acknowledgement Ive seen from iran

[near grail]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news

[spice crypt]

“When Iran opens the strait” well, off to the Maritime thread

[shadow vortex]

The Trump post calls Iran's maximalist 10 points a basis for an agreement...

Araqchi says that the US has agreed to let traffic through Hormuz, coordinated with Iran's military. May indicate who it was that really wanted this ceasefire badly.
https://x.com/i/status/2041655156215799821

Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi)

Statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

X · Apr 7, 2026, 11:11 PM

[serene walrus]

I wouldn't take too much stock in the "basis for an agreement" right now

[deep folio]

https://x.com/ap/status/2041658566478606428?s=46&t=sGssO0d1Sgn8mryUc9k94A

The Associated Press (@AP)

BREAKING: Iran's foreign minister says passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed for next two weeks under Iranian military management. https://t.co/d8YweZPiRa

X · Apr 7, 2026, 11:25 PM

[serene walrus]

RT is signalboosting that sentiment: https://fixupx.com/RT_com/status/2041647690753175930?s=20

RT (@RT_com)

IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILES AT ISRAEL AFTER TRUMP’S CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT

Quoting RT (@RT_com)
︀
BREAKING: TRUMP SUSPENDS IRAN BOMBING FOR 2 WEEKS
︀︀
︀︀‘DOUBLE SIDED CEASEFIRE’

**💬 60 🔁 332 ❤️ 1.5K 👁️ 142.1K **

FixupX · Apr 7, 2026, 10:41 PM

[near grail]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-identifies-iranian-ballistic-missile-fire-targeting-southern-israel/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/no-injuries-reported-as-idf-intercepts-iranian-ballistic-missile-launched-at-the-south/

[soft moth]

My head hurts, looking at the 10 points. It appears if the US agrees the world is essentially in a worse position than before the war started.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt

[tiny path]

This is a direct link to the 10 points:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?post=asset%3A68b586d3-4e14-4389-a5c5-7457d49ce17a#post

Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions

[carmine flame]

Direct from the PM of Pakistan-
https://fxtwitter.com/CMShehbaz/status/2041665043423752651

Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz)

With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
︀︀I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.
︀︀Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability. We earnestly hope, that the ‘Islamabad Talks’ succeed in achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in coming days!
︀︀
︀︀@realDonaldTrump
︀︀@JDVance
︀︀@SecRubio
︀︀@SteveWitkoff
︀︀@SEPeaceMissions
︀︀@drpezeshkian
︀︀@mb_ghalibaf
︀︀@araghchi

💬 14 🔁 91 ❤️ 204…

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 11:50 PM

[soft moth]

Honestly without adding more commentry: this feels like an excuse for all sides to replenish supplies. Let’s see the official statements in the coming days.

[uneven mist]

Is the “Withdrawal from US bases in the region” in the AJS reporting a mistranslation then?

[neon steeple]

We’ll see; we could posit the reasons all day but Trump failed at messaging, upped fuel prices, and tanked his approval

[hasty walrus]

And Trump said the Iranian statement is a false statement “put out by CNN”…?

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116366146721038653

[sinful pagoda]

As always with breaking news, let's be careful and try to look at what can be verified. There's a lot of uncertainty even among the involved parties. Ceasefires are often messy, so contradictions are to be expected and it's common that violence continues even if a ceasefire is called to start immediately.

Especially with leaders who may both understand what they want and have to sell the agreement to their base. So I invite for caution until we see independent verification

[void roost]

https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37660

[void roost]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-continuing-to-strike-in-iran-despite-ceasefire-announcement-security-official-tells-toi/

[woeful oar]

It's blocking my IP, what's the gist?

[near grail]

Today, 3:49 am
Share

Despite the announcement of a ceasefire, the Israeli Air Force continues to carry out strikes in Iran, a security official tells The Times of Israel.

Iran, meanwhile, has fire several salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel since the ceasefire was reportedly supposed to take effect.

Additionally, while Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would also include Lebanon, there is no indication that Israel has halted it’s operations against Hezbollah as of yet.

[slender idol]

From the AP live blog, looks like the Farsi version of the agreement didn’t match the English one…

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026#0000019d-6ac9-d7a7-affd-7feb21f70000

[weak pike]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?app-referrer=push-notification&post=asset%3Ac8a52968-d1fe-445e-ade3-7df9ab1cb882#post

[sick rapids]

so Iran got everything it wanted and US burned money? and is in a weaker position now than before war?

[near grail]

There is no public knowledge of a mutually agreeable deal yet, only an agreement for a two week ceasefire.

[slender idol]

I would also argue that their is an agrement to hold talks during the two week ceasefire.

[near grail]

And Israel doesn't see the ceasefire as binding their aggressions into Lebanon, from previous news in the thread.

[void roost]

Now Brenden Carr of FCC is threatening CNN too https://x.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/2041682254783533301?s=20

Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC)

More outrageous conduct from CNN.

Fake news is bad enough for the country, but pushing out a hoax headline in such a sensitive national security moment as this requires accountability.

Iran put out an official statement that simply cannot be squared with the one CNN's false

X · Apr 8, 2026, 12:59 AM

Israel posts in support of ceasefire but says it does not include Lebanon https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/2041714151374856232?s=20

Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM)

Prime Minister’s Office:

Israel supports President Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the US, Israel and countries in the region.

X · Apr 8, 2026, 3:06 AM

[hasty walrus]

Was monitoring PressTV hours ago and what they showed was the same version as the Persian one

[timid vine]

I did not pay enough attention to the geolocation discussions here to be able to fact-check this article, but those who did may find it interesting:
https://nitishastra.substack.com/p/the-isfahan-debacle-inside-the-failed

(Someone posted it in another server)

[hasty walrus]

Trump once again claimed that statement was made up - just wow

[serene walrus]

there's a lot of speculation in this, it's asserting that a secondary raid happened using a downed pilot as cover which is suspect as typically pulling that kind of double duty is...risky to say the least

[hasty walrus]

But what is the English version of the 10-point plan? Haven’t seen reports on that

[timid vine]

Thank you

[serene walrus]

#1473081625775706295 message

[hasty walrus]

I saw this in the BBC News blog as it said it was from an Iranian state broadcaster - though IDK which one they were referring to… it’s neither on IRINN nor PressTV. The AP’s report said it’s shared by Iranian diplomats

[shadow vortex]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iranian-oil-refining-company-confirms-attack-lavan-refinery-shana-reports-2026-04-08/

[sick rapids]

attacks still on?

[prime torrent]

MintPress is super sus as a source... anyone else reporitng this?

[weak pike]

https://x.com/modgovae/status/2041834310878294350

وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae)

UAE Air Defenses engaged 17 Ballistic Missiles and 35 UAV's.

The Ministry of Defense announced that on April 8, 2026, UAE air defense engaged 17 ballistic missiles and 35 UAV's launched from Iran.

Since the onset of the blatant Iranian attacks, UAE air defenses have engaged a

X · Apr 8, 2026, 11:03 AM

[shadow vortex]

You're right, couldn't find a reliable corresponding report.

[shadow vortex]

There was a hit on Iran's Lavan oil refinery at around 10 AM and then Iranian attacks on UAE and Kuwait.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU08fIfMi40
Worth listening to regarding US objectives and posturing.

[weak pike]

Do we have a disinformation page? While a cursory Google search states that this technology is possible on a clinical level, it seems far more likely that this story is being used to cover up the actual method/processes behind the CSAR mission.

https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2041587158453043470

BRICS News (@BRICSinfo)

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 CIA used a futuristic new tool called "Ghost Murmur" to locate and rescue the second US pilot who was shot down over Iran, NYPost reports.

"The secret technology uses long-range quantum magnetometry to find the electromagnetic fingerprint of a human heartbeat and

X · Apr 7, 2026, 6:41 PM

[prime torrent]

#disinfo-and-propaganda

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/Amena__Bakr/status/2041856914473284007
Big question marks around the ceasefire as Israel escalates attacks on Lebanon and someone (maybe even UAE?) attacks an Iranian oil refinery. Israeli opposition claiming the ceasefire represents an unacceptable strategic loss.

Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr)

There’s been a drone attack on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, according to sources #OOTT

X · Apr 8, 2026, 12:33 PM

https://x.com/SStapczynski/status/2041860492952805611

Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski)

Qatar is mobilizing its workers to resume production at the world’s biggest LNG export plant 🇶🇦 🚨

The improvement in security conditions is allowing limited activity

But any return to significant output would require normal transit through Hormuz

https://t.co/uh3Aozq1K9

X · Apr 8, 2026, 12:47 PM

[soft moth]

Let’s backup such statements

[shadow vortex]

Ah, I thought I posted it here, was a diff server.
Yair Lapid: https://xfixup.com/yairlapid/status/2041743545137057858

יאיר לפיד - Yair Lapid (@yairlapid)

לא היה אסון מדיני כזה בכל תולדותינו. ישראל לא היתה אפילו ליד השולחן כשנעשו החלטות הנוגעות לליבת הבטחון הלאומי שלנו.
︀︀
︀︀הצבא ביצע את כל מה שביקשו ממנו, הציבור הציג חוסן מדהים, אבל נתניהו נכשל מדינית, נכשל איסטרטגית, לא עמד באף אחת מהמטרות שהוא בעצמו הציב.
︀︀
︀︀ייקח לנו שנים לתקן את הנזקים המדיניים והאיסטרטגים שנתניהו חולל בגלל יוהרה, רשלנות וחוסר תכנון איסטרטגי.
︀︀
︀︀עוד פרטים: בהמשך היום.

**💬 3.4K 🔁 2.5K ❤️ 15.7K 👁️ 3.40M **

FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 5:02 AM

[shadow vortex]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/saudi-arabia-s-crucial-east-west-pipeline-hit-by-drone-attack
Amena Bakr is a very well-connected UAE energy analyst btw

[soft moth]

I mean the second part about who is attacking the Iranian refinery

[shadow vortex]

It's a specific claim from this OSINT account that has been hit-or-miss on the war
https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2041824919906848796

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: The aftermath of an Emirati airstrike on oil refineries on the islands of Siri and Lavan can be seen here. Not only oil storage tanks, but also major infrastructure at these refineries has been bombed by Emirati Mirage 2000-9EAD fighter jets. It appears the UAE’s

▶ Play video

X · Apr 8, 2026, 10:26 AM

[soft moth]

Yeah, i’d be weary of such claims, sounds like misinfo. Needs to be verified.

[shadow vortex]

That's why I put it in brackets and with a question mark...

https://x.com/AJENews/status/2041862871538188322
https://x.com/Vitamvivere/status/2041870220818534581

Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews)

BREAKING: Lebanon's hospitals overwhelmed with victims after massive wave of Israeli strikes, health minister tells Al Jazeera

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/42nlFj3sSN

X · Apr 8, 2026, 12:56 PM

Vitamvivere (@Vitamvivere)

‼️Shocking footage: Massive Israeli airstrike that slammed Shmustar cemetery in Lebanon during a funeral

▶ Play video

X · Apr 8, 2026, 1:26 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war-takeaways.html

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/bonzerbarry/status/2041873165802987616 in response to attacks on Iran and massive attack on Lebanon

barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry)

Fars citing a military-informed source: Following the continued violation of the temporary ceasefire by the Zionist regime's army against Lebanon and the Islamic resistance of this country, Iran is finalizing plans to carry out deterrence operations against Israeli military

X · Apr 8, 2026, 1:37 PM

[balmy trail]

Was just coming to ask if there’s been any Iranian response to Lebanese attacks and if they’ll consider that a violation. Thanks for sharing.

[void roost]

Analysis of Saudi media response to the war

https://www.threads.com/@jenny.abamu/post/DW2P50lDvSS?

Saudi Arabia is one of America’s most important allies in the Middle East. I served there as a diplomat. Here are five things Saudi media is signaling about the Iran war and why Americans should pay attention.

TLDR : Saudis are glad to harm Iran, don’t like religious talk and transactional framing from US, worried about regional stability.

[void roost]

Joint statement from world leaders on ceasefire.

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/statement-by-president-macron-prime-minister-meloni-chancellor-merz-prime-minister-starmer-prime-minister-carney-president-dan-acting-prime-minister-frederiksen-prime-minister-jetten-prime-minister-mitsotakis-prime-minister-sanchez-prime-minister-takaichi-president-of-the-european-commission-von-der-leyen-president-of-the-european-council-costa-2419478

[forest hazel]

Trump tells a reporter that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire, WH Press Sec Leavitt says the same to Barak Ravid https://fixupx.com/elizlanders/status/2041878299454955640
https://fixupx.com/barakravid/status/2041891692287012922

Liz Landers (@ElizLanders)

A few minutes after the Pentagon briefing wrapped I spoke with President Trump briefly to ask about the latest with Iran:

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FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 1:58 PM

Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid)

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tells me Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement with Iran

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FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 2:51 PM

[void roost]

https://xcancel.com/IDF/status/2041844695303696733#m

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kuwait-says-air-defences-dealing-with-morning-wave-iranian-drone-attacks-2026-04-08/

[shadow vortex]

Even the UK statement an hour ago mentioned Lebanon as part of the ceasefire
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2041873812937953756?s=20

I wonder who the UK/EU/Australia will blame for not upholding it.

Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer)

The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran today is welcomed by the UK and our allies.

The goal now must be a lasting end to the war.

Alongside our international partners, the UK will work to ensure a return to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

X · Apr 8, 2026, 1:40 PM

[hasty walrus]

From the New York Times…

A White House official says that the 10-point peace plan that Iran publicly released on Wednesday differs from the plan that Trump said was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” The official declined to elaborate on the differences but said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was expected to clarify at a 1 p.m. briefing.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/08/world/iran-war-trump-news

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/i/status/2041896258814566560

Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa)

Photo reportedly from one of the UAE Air Force Mirage 2000-9 fighters which bombed the Iranian refinery plant in the island of Lavan after the announced "ceasefire".

X · Apr 8, 2026, 3:09 PM

[slender idol]

Not saying it's legit but that photo was posted by the same user in this previous post.
#1473081625775706295 message

Not tyring to dig too much into the weeds, but looking at some of his other posts and they are all over the place ...

https://fixupx.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2041867867092553975?s=20
https://fixupx.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2041845854571475200?s=20
https://fixupx.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2041872127884718124?s=20

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

Since morning. I have been targeted by Emiratis over revealing that they targeted Iran's oil facilities and tried to frame Israel. They first tried to discredit me and now they are threatening me to death! Next time, instead of flying your Mirage 2000-9EADs over Iranian Islands, better use F-16E/Fs as they more look like Israeli fighter jets!
︀︀
︀︀#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

Quoting Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)
︀
BREAKING: It is now confirmed that the UAE Air Force has conducted a large-scale operation targeting Iran’s oil and petrochemical plants in the Persian Gulf region. They have bombed refineries on the islands of Siri and Lavan and targeted multiple other petrochemical facilities using not only Wing Loong 2 armed drones, but also Mirage 2000-9 EAD fighter jets. Operations are ongoing, with reports that Emirati aircraft have also flown over southern Iran.
︀︀
︀︀#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

💬 26 …

FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 1:16 PM

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: F-16E Block 60 Desert Falcons of the UAE Air Force have the range and endurance to reach Tehran, the capital of Iran, and carry out airstrikes. My Israeli sources confirm that the frustrated Emiratis are now flying them over Tehran, possibly to deceive the Islamic regime of Iran and convince it to break the ceasefire with the U.S. and launch missiles at Israel.
︀︀
︀︀#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

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FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 11:49 AM

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: According to my Israeli sources, the Emirati F-16E (one or two aircraft) that flew over Tehran, the capital of Iran, and even broke the sound barrier were most likely carrying DB-110 tactical photo-reconnaissance pods for imaging strategic sites.
︀︀
︀︀1-The DB-110 is a long-range electro-optical/infrared reconnaissance system capable of capturing high-resolution imagery day and night, often from stand-off distances .
︀︀
︀︀2-UAE F-16E/F Block 60 aircraft are known to integrate advanced ISR capabilities and have operated DB-110-class systems, with later upgrades such as the MS-110
︀︀
︀︀#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

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FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 1:33 PM

[fossil summit]

https://xcancel.com/WSJ/status/2041885641600852477#m

[shadow vortex]

Trump still trying to send Witkoff and Kushner to negotiate on behalf of the US with Iran
https://x.com/i/status/2041890926553911659

Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC)

NYPost exclusive on Iran talks in Islamabad from call with President Trump: “We’ll have Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, JD —maybe JD, I don’t know. There’s a question of safety, security,” Trump said in a phone interview.
The president on Tuesday accepted Iran’s 10-point

X · Apr 8, 2026, 2:48 PM

[weary escarp]

Minimal traffic flowing through the Strait as of right now: http://marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:55.1/centery:26.2/zoom:8

[weak pike]

BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?app-referrer=push-notification
Iran warns ships passing through Strait of Hormuz without permission will be 'targeted and destroyed' - BBC News

[void roost]

Belgium foreign affairs minister was in Lebanon near attack sites when Israel bombed this AM

https://xcancel.com/prevotmaxime/status/2041883820652216583#m

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2041912135349907866

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

CNN: There does not appear to be a formal written document for the ceasefire agreement

X · Apr 8, 2026, 4:12 PM

[waxen rock]

`https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892378

[shadow vortex]

Very complicated situation regarding the nature of the "ten points" Trump says he agreed to. NYT reporting that Trump is now saying those are not the "basis for negotiation" he was talking about https://archive.is/eZtx6
(Unless they were and he wanted a quick out from his ultimatum and to bring Iran to the table?)

[waxen rock]

source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-ceasefire?post-id=cmnq5h81u00003b6uysrjxqkl

[void roost]

https://cnn.it/4vg5XLY

[weak pike]

The Financial Times has reportedly now confirmed this attack.

"Saudi Arabia’s key east-west oil pipeline hit as Middle East energy attacks continue.
Iran, Kuwait and UAE also report attacks despite start of two-week ceasefire."

https://www.ft.com/content/115eb832-9a62-424f-a893-57156ce8abf7?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[soft moth]

From Ministry of Interior Bahrain
https://xcancel.com/moi_bahrain/status/2041781410487222756

Basically what we can summarize from todays events, the ceasefire was just verbal with no signed agreement yet, and the strait was never reopened accept verbally.

[novel sail]

UAE and Israel seems to be the ones not accepting the cease fire.

[serene walrus]

Iran had missiles launched right around when the ceasefire happened, and saudi and kuwaiti stuff was hit since then, but to an extent i am willing to chalk that to difficulties in irgc c&c

[void roost]

Iranian foreign minister on Lebanon https://xcancel.com/araghchi/status/2041929940678144097#m

[novel sail]

It is not unusual that it takes time for the orders to reach everyone, especially in this case when the ceasefire happened very quickly.

[weak pike]

It's worth noting that an inherent weakness in the mosaic doctrine that Iran has reportedly embraced is that, once authority is delegated, it can be challenging to get it back, especially considering the damage to Iran's leadership. There's a reason why authoritarian regimes usually shy away from such doctrine as it can undermine their overall power.

[hasty walrus]

Karoline Leavitt just said that plan Iran announced was the “fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded” original plan “thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team”. She said the plan considered acceptable was a “more reasonable and entirely different and condensed” one

[glad vector]

Concerns about diffused command and control are also commonly stated as reasons why the decapitation stratagem Israel runs is not great

[glad vector]

did she present a copy of the points he's supposed to have accepted?

[hasty walrus]

Nothing

[deep folio]

https://archive.is/rxuXy

[tiny path]

On the whole, White House Press Briefings are low-content events.

[serene walrus]

Have there been any strike in iran since the ceasefire was announced last night?

[timid jungle]

Lloyd's List on current state of the SoH

https://fixupx.com/LloydsList/status/2041927836219367903/en

Lloyd's List (@LloydsList)

Just three vessels were tracked transiting the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced early on Wednesday, all with current or past links to Iran. A further three vessels are positioned to cross or were heading for the Iran-approved detour around Larak Island

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FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 5:15 PM

[fossil summit]

been seeing x.com posts of strikes on Tehran happening now, but haven't seen a news source confirm yet.

[serene walrus]

Im told apparently nothing has happened but it is hard to prove a negative like that

[ocean storm]

Ok, is it me or recently it's harder to get consistent versions of agreements from sides in any conflict/diplomatic engagement? Or has it always been like that?

[timid jungle]

There was an attack reported on oil infrastructure on Lavan island.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iranian-oil-refining-company-confirms-attack-lavan-refinery-shana-reports-2026-04-08/

Iranian Oil Ministry’s Shana news outlet telegram post:
https://t.me/shananewsroom/63764

[void roost]

https://www.threads.com/@yasharali/post/DW4W-iKCeED?

new statement for speaker of Iranian parliament

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2041934647492292960
Note: Segal is considered to be practically a spokesman for the office of Netanyahu. Also worth noting that this is in line with US-Israeli "ceasefires" since Oct 7, which sought to avoid dramatic escalation by imposing restraint on the other side and then pushing to see what terms they could violate in the meantime.

Amit Segal (@AmitSegal)

The White House emphasized Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire.

Here is the Iranian test:

If they are truly so strong and invincible, they will surely break the ceasefire for their proxy.

If not – they have effectively given up on the idea of the proxy.

X · Apr 8, 2026, 5:42 PM

[void roost]

Original https://xcancel.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2041943537386958858#m

[glad vector]

I don't know about "any conflict" because I don't follow international diplomacy to the extent I can tell you the timeline about the Azeri Armenian diplomacy for instance, but for sure all deals involving the US have been big on "trust me bro" energy

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/2041965127277150295
The Vance/Trump+Kushner+Witkoff dichotomy adds another complicated factor to all this...

Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin)

BREAKING: @VP says Israel has agreed to "check themselves" in Lebanon.

X · Apr 8, 2026, 7:43 PM

[void roost]

https://www.threads.com/@factpostnews/post/DW4g4S5FRFz?

[glad vector]

Vance forgetting that also the Pakistanis explicit said Lebanon was included https://fxtwitter.com/CMShehbaz/status/2041665043423752651

Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz)

With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
︀︀I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.
︀︀Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability. We earnestly hope, that the ‘Islamabad Talks’ succeed in achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in coming days!
︀︀
︀︀@realDonaldTrump
︀︀@JDVance
︀︀@SecRubio
︀︀@SteveWitkoff
︀︀@SEPeaceMissions
︀︀@drpezeshkian
︀︀@mb_ghalibaf
︀︀@araghchi

💬 11.9K 🔁 29.6K …

FxTwitter · Apr 7, 2026, 11:50 PM

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/phildstewart/status/2041963462281036050

Phil Stewart (@phildstewart)

Vance alerts hitting our wire:
* VANCE: IRANIANS ARE PROMISING TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
* VANCE: IRANIANS THOUGHT CEASEFIRE INCLUDED LEBANON AND IT JUST DIDN'T
* VANCE: ISRAELIS HAVE OFFERED TO CHECK THEMSELVES IN LEBANON
* VANCE: ISRAELIS ARE TRYING TO SET US UP FOR SUCCESS IN

X · Apr 8, 2026, 7:36 PM

[deep folio]

that is all so superfluous I wouldnt rely on it
sounds like someone scrambling

[shadow vortex]

" ISRAELIS ARE TRYING TO SET US UP FOR SUCCESS IN NEGOTIATIONS ON IRAN"
Could mean anything, does he mean they're trying to force Hezbollah to capitulate with mass slaughter campaign???

[near grail]

questionable, not something we can answer here

[spice crypt]

So is it correct to assume that there are currently zero US or Israeli air assets above Iran at the moment?

If so, curious to see how much ability Iran has in rearming its more spread out units without close eyes/missiles looking for them (still have geospatial).

[tiny path]

You can assume anything, but I would caution acting on those assumptions unless you have evidence to back them up.

The second part can't be answered with open source info.

[shadow vortex]

There are tanker flights over Saudi. Also Iran mentioned shooting a drone down earlier today, but that was mere hours after the "ceasefire" was verbally said to come into effect.
https://x.com/i/status/2041908781320171999

MenchOsint (@MenchOsint)

Ceasefire, but USAF KC-135R Stratotankers have not stopped operating (accompanying fighters jets & reconnaissance aircraft) near Iran, flying over Syria, Jordan, Iraq & Saudi Arabia.

X · Apr 8, 2026, 3:59 PM

[spice crypt]

Quick search found this guy sourcing Iranian Mehr news. Seems they intend for it to be closed at least.

Edit to add direct source.

https://xcancel.com/MehrnewsCom/status/2041880224254550518#m

[shadow vortex]

Israeli drone shot down over Shushtar, Iran
https://xfixup.com/i/status/2041980083057926510

الجزيرة مباشر (@ajmubasher)

عاجل | مسؤول بمحافظة خوزستان: الدفاعات الإيرانية أسقطت مسيرة في مدينة شوشتر ما أدى لمقتل طفلة وإصابة 6 أشخاص

**🔁 2 ❤️ 14 👁️ 4.5K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 8:42 PM

[serene walrus]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/trump-weighs-punishing-certain-nato-countries-over-lack-of-iran-war-support-a2361995

Archive link: https://archive.is/Fvha4

Countries that could benefit because they are viewed as supportive include Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Greece, the officials said. The Eastern European countries have some of the highest defense spending rates in the alliance and were some of the first to signal they would support an international coalition to monitor the Strait of Hormuz. After war broke out, Romania quickly approved U.S. requests to allow its bases to be used by the U.S. Air Force.
The plan could result in putting more U.S. troops closer to the Russian border, an outcome likely to antagonize Moscow.```


What kind of plan is this?

[shadow vortex]

Interesting, Israel restricted access to the Al Aqsa Mosque under reason of war with Iran (reported here: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/5/under-israeli-restrictions-palestinian-christians-mark-quiet-holy-week) but the Islamic agency responsible for it has said restrictions are lifted from tomorrow.
https://x.com/AnasAlSharif0/status/2041962921035440448?s=20

أنس الشريف Anas Al-Sharif (@AnasAlSharif0)

عاجل| دائرة الأوقاف الإسلامية بالقدس:

غداً سوف يتم فتح أبواب المسجد الأقصى من صلاة الفجر والعدد مسموح للجميع.

X · Apr 8, 2026, 7:34 PM

[weak pike]

Was anyone on here ever able to get a accurate geolocation of the USAF F-15E that was shot down on 03 April? I keep seeing various content on social media (that I don't at all trust) how the WSO somehow walked anywhere been 110km and 500 miles. The only "maps" I can find are the ones that claim to be where the WSO was picked up, and where the possible extraction airstrip was (like this one). Obviously, where the Strike Eagle crashed also doesn't mean that they ejected particularly close to that point as it could have kept flying for some time depending on damage, altitude, velocity etc.

This is probably the best photo of the surrounding landscape I can find online, assuming that the footage is accurate.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2039944068801728641?s=20

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

X · Apr 3, 2026, 5:52 AM

[near grail]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/08/world/iran-war-trump-news/a6d3204b-4f37-5395-8ef9-4f8a6dc5441f

No oil tankers have crossed the strait since the cease-fire was announced, according to data from Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm. The group has so far tracked four crossings of bulk carriers, or merchant ships designed to transport dry cargo, through the strait today.

[timid jungle]

WSJ: Iranian navy broadcast on maritime VHF warning vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz without permission will be attacked. Recording shared by a crew member of an undisclosed vessel in the region.

https://fixupx.com/alexbward/status/2041993413516579324/en

Alex Ward (@alexbward)

“If any vessel tries to transit without permission, [they] will be destroyed,” Iran's Navy said Wednesday, according to a marine radio recording shared with The Wall Street Journal by a vessel crew member. www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/whats-happening-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-since-the-cease-fire-902f1ab0

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FixupX · Apr 8, 2026, 9:35 PM

article: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/whats-happening-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-since-the-cease-fire-902f1ab0

archive: https://archive.is/n0O5W

[soft moth]

Day 1 (8 April 2026) of Ceasefire Summary

• 8:50 UTC Bahrain: announces interception of Ariel threats from Iran

• https://fxtwitter.com/BDF_Bahrain/status/2041800776171860041#m/en

• 9:10 UTC Iran:Attack in Lavan oil refinery in Iran 
https://xcancel.com/RoyaNewsEnglish/status/2041805955587842423#m

• 10:11 UTC UAE & Kuwait : United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have both announced that their air defense systems are currently engaging with active missile and drone attacks originating from Iran, Iran confirms it targeted them. 
https://xcancel.com/RoyaNewsEnglish/status/2041821209944260956#m
https://xcancel.com/RoyaNewsEnglish/status/2041835154184839358#m

• 10:15 UTC Israeli strikes on Beirut, Lebanon 
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-pauses-attacks-under-us-iran-ceasefire-sources-close-group-say-2026-04-08/

• Needs verification: 13:58 UTC Iran IRGC reports intercepting and destroying an Israeli Hermes 900 drone
https://xcancel.com/RoyaNewsEnglish/status/2041878318480306545#m

• Needs verification: 14:17 UTC Lebanon: Israeli air raid targeted the Shams Tar cemetery in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley during a funeral procession

• https://xcancel.com/RoyaNewsEnglish/status/2041883174456754578#m

**- 15:50 UTC **Iran attacks Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline

• https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabias-east-west-oil-pipeline-hit-iranian-attack-damage-being-assessed-2026-04-08/

• **17:26 UTC **status of the Strait of Hormuz is unclear after Iranian media outlets released conflicting reports regarding whether or not oil tankers were being allowed to transit the waterway

• https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892378

-** 17:29 UTC** Hezbollah launched multiple missiles targeting northern Israel
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-892377

قوة دفاع البحرين (@BDF_Bahrain)

تُعلن القيادة العامة لقوة دفاع البحرين أن منظومات الدفاع الجوي بقوة دفاع البحرين بفضلٍ من الله، ثم بيقظة رجالها مستمرة في مواجهة موجات تتابعية من الاعتداءات الإيرانية الإرهابية الآثمة، استهدفت مملكة البحرين.
︀︀
︀︀www.instagram.com/p/DW3VQF3DY4k/?igsh=dmN5Nml5dXg3OGx4

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FxTwitter · Apr 8, 2026, 8:50 AM

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/HamidRezaAz/status/2042017504579440661

Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz)

Iranian state TV says “there is over a 90% probability“ that the attacks on the Siri and Lavan oil facilities (a few hours after the ceasefire) were carried out by the UAE using Mirage jets, and that #Iran’s strike on Fujairah was a response to it.

In the meantime, there is a

X · Apr 8, 2026, 11:11 PM

[serene walrus]

https://bsky.app/profile/en.afp.com/post/3mizk3qvcsx2u

AFP News Agency (@en.afp.com)

BREAKING Iran announces alternative routes for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the risk of sea mines in the main zone of the vital waterway.

Tehran has agreed to temporarily reopen the strait, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes, as part of a two-week truce

Bluesky · Apr 9, 2026, 12:22 AM

This is a recent post, but it's not clear if the strait is open or not, and if there's a toll

[void roost]

New warnings from Trump #1330709161385922650 message

[void roost]

Brave and important testimony of Kuwait attack survivors (from first days of war)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-war-kuwait-drone-attack-survivors-us-army/?

We moved closer to Iran, to a deeply unsafe area that was a known target," the soldier said. "I don't think there was a good reason ever articulated."

He said they were protected by little more than a thin layer of vertical standing blast barricades that did not provide cover from above.

"From a bunker standpoint, that's about as weak as one gets," he said.

Asked to describe the degree of fortification, he responded: "I mean, I would put it in the none category. From a drone defense capability … none."

[timid jungle]

Martin Kelly, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group (a big name in the maritime security space), shares a map reportedly published by Iranian security forces that does two things:

First, it presents a new traffic separation scheme (TSS) that would route vessels closer to Iranian shores.

And second, it Indicates the normal TSS is hazardous due to claimed mining.

It is not known if the normal TSS is actually mined.

Kelly shares some thoughts on the challenges of the SoH maritime security situation and the implications/sustainability of a toll system.

https://fixupx.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2042134657529962632/en

Martin Kelly (@_MartinKelly_)

Iran announces alternative routes in Strait of Hormuz to avoid Mines!!
︀︀
︀︀This is HUGE!! 🚨
︀︀
︀︀Lots of questions – but arguably this is the worst case scenario for shipping.
︀︀
︀︀First, we must consider if this is indeed the case, or is this a way of Iran scaremongering ships into using the Iranian promulgated routes, thus demonstrating de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz?
︀︀
︀︀Masters/owners/charters/insurers are probably more inclined to opt for a ‘safe route’ if they believe mines have been placed in the TSS.
︀︀
︀︀What we do know:
︀︀
︀︀Multiple ships have transited the SoH, with AIS on and off since the beginning of the conflict - Would suggest no mines.
︀︀
︀︀But none used the TSS - Does not guarantee no mines.
︀︀
︀︀If the TSS is mined, the recovery for safe passage will take months at least.
︀︀
︀︀Another If, is that IF mines have been placed, they will probably be tethered sea mines…

FixupX · Apr 9, 2026, 6:56 AM

[timid jungle]

By way of comparison, here's the normal TSS from open sea map:

OpenSea Map link

[sonic dust]

https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/116373550592526006

NetBlocks (@[email protected])

⚠️ Update: It's now day 41 of #Iran's internet blackout, with the regime's ban on access to global networks continuing past 960 hours. The measure, unprecedented in scale and duration for a connected society, continues to violate Iranians' rights to communicate and stay informed.

Mastodon · Apr 9, 2026, 7:24 AM

[weak pike]

https://www.twz.com/air/navy-mq-4c-tritons-fate-unknown-after-disappearing-from-flight-tracking-over-persian-gulf

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/ghida_fakhry/status/2041990340219965878

Ghida Fakhry (@ghida_fakhry)

“When Iran enters into a serious, unambiguous agreement, it tends to stick with it.”

That’s what Sir Simon Gass — former UK Ambassador to Iran, ex‑chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee, and head of the British team negotiating the 2015 JCPOA — told me when I asked whether

▶ Play video

X · Apr 8, 2026, 9:23 PM

[deep folio]

hot damn, 618 million USD per unit on those

[thorn mantle]

Was this posted?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/07/iran-cyberattacks-infrastructure

[shadow vortex]

Pakistan's defense minister with a not-so-diplomatic outburst
https://x.com/KhawajaMAsif/status/2042286922547220877?s=20

Khawaja M. Asif (@KhawajaMAsif)

Israel is evil and a curse for humanity, while peace talks are underway in Islamabad, genocide is being committed in Lebanon. Innocent citizens are being killed by Israel, first Gaza, then Iran and now Lebanon, bloodletting continues unabated. I hope and pray people who created

X · Apr 9, 2026, 5:02 PM

Iran's Ghalibaf with his own countdown to return to war...
https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2042329645693964483?s=20

محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf)

Time is running out ⏳

X · Apr 9, 2026, 7:51 PM

[tight axle]

yeah #1473081625775706295 message

[void roost]

Pakistan defense minister https://xcancel.com/KhawajaMAsif/status/2042286922547220877#m

[void roost]

Israel Foreign Minister responds https://xcancel.com/gidonsaar/status/2042339696903119207#m

[shadow vortex]

posted above

Not happy with his "ceasefire"

[drowsy tide]

https://x.com/obretix/status/2040899522386178235?s=46

(not surprising samir got the fix hahahaha)

Samir (@obretix)

USAF F-15E crash site geolocated ~25km south of Isfahan https://t.co/5KpEdTznqG

X · Apr 5, 2026, 9:08 PM

[weak pike]

Cheers, thanks for linking it!

[fossil summit]

Report: Iranian Delegation Arrives in Pakistan Ahead of Talks With U.S. Special Envoys

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-10/ty-article-live/report-iranian-delegation-arrives-in-pakistan-for-talks-with-u-s-envoys/0000019d-751e-d759-ab9d-7d9f5c630000

[fossil summit]

Seeing conflicting info about Iranian delegation arriving in Pakistan

https://archive.is/k4FGL

[void roost]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/04/10/a-crazy-expensive-us-drone-just-disappeared-over-strait-of-hormuz/

[soft moth]

https://fxtwitter.com/modgovae/status/2042196918672191644

وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae)

Ministry of Defence confirms UAE airspace free of any air threats during past hours
︀︀
︀︀The Ministry of Defence announced that on 9th April 2026, UAE air defence systems did not detect any ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or UAVs launched from Iran.
︀︀
︀︀Since the onset of the blatant Iranian attacks, UAE air defences have engaged a total of 537 ballistic missiles, 26 cruise missiles, and 2,256 UAVs.
︀︀
︀︀No injuries were recorded in recent hours, keeping the total number of injuries at 224, involving individuals of various nationalities, including Emirati, Egyptian, Sudanese, Ethiopian, Filipino, Pakistani, Iranian, Indian, Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan, Azerbaijani, Yemeni, Ugandan, Eritrean, Lebanese, Afghan, Bahraini, Comorian, Turkish, Iraqi, Nepalese, Nigerian, Omani, Jordanian, Palestinian, Ghanaian, Indonesian, Swedish, Tunisian, Moroccan, and Russian.
︀︀
︀︀No martyrs or fatalities have been reported in the past hours. Since the onset of the…

FxTwitter · Apr 9, 2026, 11:04 AM

https://fxtwitter.com/BDF_Bahrain/status/2042558344380997736/en

قوة دفاع البحرين (@BDF_Bahrain)

📑 Translated from Arabic

The General Command of the Bahrain Defense Force announces that all of its weapons and units are at the highest levels of readiness and defensive preparedness, and it has been confirmed that it has not detected any hostile missiles or drones. www.instagram.com/p/DW8tmUxDa6u/?igsh=NzU5bHpicmhjM2ty

Original text
تعلن القيادة العامة لقوة دفاع البحرين أن كافة أسلحتها ووحداتها في أعلى درجات الجاهزية وأهبة الاستعداد الدفاعي، وتبين إنها لم ترصد أي صواريخ أو مسيرات معادية.
︀︀
︀︀www.instagram.com/p/DW8tmUxDa6u/?igsh=NzU5bHpicmhjM2ty

**💬 57 🔁 134 ❤️ 284 👁️ 28.3K **

FxTwitter · Apr 10, 2026, 11:00 AM

https://fxtwitter.com/KuwaitArmyGHQ/status/2042614875545899315/en

KUWAIT ARMY - الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ)

📑 Translated from Arabic

Statement No. (59) Issued by the Official Spokesman of the Ministry of Defense Brigadier General Saud Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi The Armed Forces monitored and dealt with (7) hostile drones within Kuwaiti airspace during the past (24) hours, and they were handled in accordance with established procedures. The Iranian aggression resulted in targeting several vital facilities affiliated with the National Guard, leading to injuries among some of its members, who are currently receiving treatment with stable conditions, in addition to significant material damage. Additionally, the Inspection and Disposal Group from the Land Force Engineering dealt with (14) reports, in accordance with established procedures. Members of the Armed Forces continue to perform their national duty with high morale and steadfast discipline, embodying their unwavering commitment to protecting the homeland, preserving its security and stability, and affirming their ongoing readine…

FxTwitter · Apr 10, 2026, 2:45 PM

[shadow vortex]

Lots of material being brought into the region.
https://xfixup.com/i/status/2042636675025698910

EekadFacts | إيكاد (@EekadFacts)

رصد فريق إيكاد، عبر بيانات الملاحة الجوية، طائرات شحن عسـ،ـكري أمريكية من طراز C-17A Globemaster III تنفذ رحلات مكثفة باتجاه الشرق الأوسط، وذلك رغم إعلان وقف إطلاق النار بين واشنطن وطهران.

**💬 1 ❤️ 3 👁️ 73 **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 10, 2026, 4:11 PM

[mint moon]

Lots of material being brought into the region.
https://xfixup.com/i/status/2042636675025698910/en

EekadFacts | إيكاد (@EekadFacts)

📑 Translated from Arabic

The Ekad team has monitored, through air navigation data, U.S. military cargo planes of the C-17A Globemaster III type conducting intensive flights toward the Middle East, despite the announcement of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.

Original text
رصد فريق إيكاد، عبر بيانات الملاحة الجوية، طائرات شحن عسـ،ـكري أمريكية من طراز C-17A Globemaster III تنفذ رحلات مكثفة باتجاه الشرق الأوسط، وذلك رغم إعلان وقف إطلاق النار بين واشنطن وطهران.

**💬 2 🔁 8 ❤️ 23 👁️ 2.9K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 10, 2026, 4:11 PM

[fossil summit]

What does lots of material mean?

[mint moon]

Materiel vs Material. Materiel = military equipment/supplies/etc.

[fossil summit]

ah ty

[proud crow]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-said-frustrated-that-mossad-promises-of-iran-uprising-have-fallen-short/

[serene walrus]

https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2042495663217263020 This can go in a lot of places tbh

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

Ukraine secured air defense interceptors, crude oil, diesel fuel, and additional financial "arrangements" in exchange for helping Gulf countries shoot down Iranian drones -Zelensky

**💬 36 🔁 294 ❤️ 3.3K 👁️ 134.6K **

FxTwitter · Apr 10, 2026, 6:51 AM

[shadow vortex]

Hard to believe these will stick, but wow
https://x.com/Khanalizadeh_IR/status/2042704265911963811?s=20

مهدی خانعلی‌زاده (@Khanalizadeh_IR)

The 4 preconditions that Trump accepted:
1. The release of Iran’s frozen assets
2. A ceasefire in Lebanon
3. Limitation on passage through the Strait of Hormuz to 15 vessels per day, with transit payment
4. The prohibition of any redeployment of U.S. forces and equipments

X · Apr 10, 2026, 8:40 PM

[serene walrus]

There's been evidence of C-17s heading into the region so 4 is probably broken on the US' side but I don't know if I trust that because the Iranians have not been consistent as to what the US has agreed to, having said that the US agreed to everything from the 10 points in the entirety, not agreeing to nuclear refinement, all the way down to "we'll be able to hash something out in the 2 weeks between our 10 point and the US 15 point"

https://x.com/mkainerugaba/status/2042665357257687309 What even is this? This individual can in fact do this (I do believe that is the account of the individual in question and he has the authority to deploy troops) but like

this is also probably on the same level of just saying shit that Trump is at

Muhoozi Kainerugaba (@mkainerugaba)

I'm ready to deploy 100,000 Ugandan soldiers in Israel. Under my command. To protect the Holy Land. The land of Jesus Christ our God!

X · Apr 10, 2026, 6:05 PM

[shadow vortex]

Iranian expert Ali Vaez pointed out that the Iran nuclear deal involved many technical nuclear experts, financial experts and diplomats to negotiate for years before it was finalized (https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/2042656354771571050?s=20).

Right now, Trump is sending Witkoff, Vance and Kushner, but we may only know the seriousness of the US side if we see similar scale and figures involved. Otherwise it reeks of ultimatums or time-buying.

Meanwhile Iran is sending quite a lot of institutionally important figures. Hard to tell if that means they really did want to call Trump's "bridge day" off or if they want to give US impression that they're serious about talking while biding time.

Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish)

“It would require... a lot of diplomatic skill.”

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, says the upcoming talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad may be marred by a deficit of trust on the Iranian side and a lack of expertise on the US side.

▶ Play video

X · Apr 10, 2026, 5:30 PM

[serene walrus]

I meant more so that it doesn't seem like anyone, even on the Iranian side, was able to say what the ceasefire contained, and WSJ put out a piece saying that there appeared to be no actual written agreement

[shadow vortex]

Yes, looks like both sides were under huge pressure to negotiate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/world/asia/china-iran-cease-fire.html

[near grail]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Z1A.WPZY.kXaFfBEcOlF8&smid=nytcore-android-share

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/i/status/2042724508579123611

Gram Slattery (@G_Slattery)

Scoopy nugget in our latest Iran story:

"Trump appears in recent conversations ​with advisers to have conceded the ⁠Strait of Hormuz, a hub of global commerce that remains effectively shut, is unlikely to completely reopen soon"

https://t.co/4pgZqZOxbu

X · Apr 10, 2026, 10:00 PM

[radiant kiln]

AN/FPS-132 radar facility in Qatar, said to be struck on 2026-03-03 [not sure about the date]
https://xcancel.com/EGYOSINT/status/2042702139818905756

[shadow vortex]

Inclusion of Chinese and Russia observers is the talks is a huge signal.
Spice must flow?

Diplomatic sources indicated that representatives from Gulf countries, China and Russia are expected to attend as observers.
https://www.nation.com.pk/11-Apr-2026/us-vice-president-arrives-islamabad-talks-iran

https://x.com/i/status/2042782690529677752

Amir Husain (@amirhusain_tx)

And Ambassador Imran Ali, who is thoughtful and very credible, finally confirms that the PAF went inside Iran, brought the Iranian delegation under their protection. "It was a signal to the Israeli air force. If you mess with us, we WILL take you on."

X · Apr 11, 2026, 1:52 AM

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-intelligence-indicates-china-preparing-weapons-shipment-iran-cnn-reports-2026-04-11/

[fossil summit]

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/11/us-iran-navy-strait-of-hormuz

archive: https://archive.is/I89Z2

[floral dawn]

Saudi Arabia says Pakistan sends fighter jets to kingdom under defence pact
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-says-pakistan-sends-fighter-jets-kingdom-under-defence-pact-2026-04-11/

[serene walrus]

https://www.itamilradar.com/2026/04/11/heading-to-hormuz-destroyer-uss-michael-murphy-breaks-radar-silence/

[fossil summit]

https://wanaen.com/u-s-destroyer-turns-back-following-firm-warning-from-iran/
(not sure of this source)

[serene walrus]

the only citation is an iranian spokesperson and they're not known to be super reliable

[fossil summit]

Seeing Reuters through Hareetz also reporting it turned back https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-11/ty-article-live/report-iran-still-has-thousands-of-missiles-launchers-in-underground-sites/0000019d-7a72-de10-afdf-7a7e24580000?liveBlogItemId=506702560#506702560

U.S. destroyer warship turns back from Strait of Hormuz after Iran warning
Iranian State TV said the country issued a warning to a U.S. military ship that the destroyer would be attacked within 30 minutes if it crossed the Strait of Hormuz; a senior Iranian military official told State TV that the vessel turned back after the warning.

[serene walrus]

axios reports that multiple ships crossed still fwiw but I also think axios is generally unreliable

[near grail]

seems to be a conflicting narrative about the warning~~, but trying to get an archive from WSJ about what I'm seeing were two ships~~ not working for me
https://xcancel.com/BarakRavid/status/2042966373438046533

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-latest-news-israel-us-lebanon-2026/card/two-u-s-warships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-4Bt2nI1zDLWfpyZwJQfS

[fossil summit]

seems like the same spot still
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:7771657/zoom:10

[serene walrus]

last report was 8 hours ago, and notably us military vessels do turn off transponders

[orchid bone]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2042951697090171159

Can someone give any clarity on the credibility of this? I know that a while ago there could be certain conclusions drawn on the mine-clearing capabilities of the US in the region, based off of which mine-sweeping assets were where in the world.

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: President Trump says the US has now begun the process of clearing out mines from the Strait of Hormuz.

Several US Navy ships were just seen crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

X · Apr 11, 2026, 1:03 PM

[fossil summit]

here's the truth post: https://www.trumpstruth.org/statuses/37707

[fossil summit]

I don't think anyone but those there have clarity on what's happening at the moment.

[near grail]

Even Iran doesn't know where their mines are, and US capabilities for significant de-mining operations has been an open concern this entire conflict.
#1473081625775706295 message

https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2026/04/03/strait-of-hormuz-under-threat-of-mines-are-littoral-combat-ships-the-solution/

As of March 2026, the four Avenger-class ships still in service are all forward-deployed in Japan. Meanwhile, the USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara were spotted at port in Malaysia on March 15, 2026, reportedly conducting brief logistical stops. The USS Canberra was reportedly in the Indian Ocean around the same time. The absence of these vessels in the Persian Gulf is surely no accident. Moving U.S. warships, particularly the three LCSs, out of port in Bahrain ahead of the conflict was likely a calculated decision to keep these vessels well out of the range of Iranian drones and missiles. Moreover, the U.S. military’s strikes on Iranian vessels in port have demonstrated the vulnerability of ships docked in the Gulf.
This may not be up-to-date in April, but it doesn't seem like they were near the region at all recently.

[void roost]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt?post=asset%3A67e53e46-5bb7-4ae8-b75c-5203ad4cb3a8#post

🚨 NEW: The US Centcom says two US Navy destroyers have transited the Strait of Hormuz today to ensure the waterway is clear of sea mines laid by Iran.

Centcom commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, said: "Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce."

[woeful oar]

As a point of question, may I ask any experts here if that's how that works. Because I don't think driving a single ship through the straights is really checking if it's clear of mines as much as it is missing them yeah?

[azure glade]

Correct, it is purely symbolic. Even if they were blasting the hull sonar the whole way at five knots, which I doubt, finding even a tethered mine would be dumb luck.

[balmy trail]

There are lots of autonomous mine detecting systems in use by modern warships, could be possible they had drones operating in the vicinity of the vessels to detect mines. Hard to say if these are in use without footage unfortunately

https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/news-centre/press-releases/thales-delivers-worlds-first-autonomous-mine-hunting-system-royal-navy

https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/2167996/mine-countermeasures-unmanned-surface-vehicle-mcm-usv/

https://news.northropgrumman.com/sensors/northrop-grummans-an-aqs-24-minehunting-solution-rapidly-demonstrated-for-the-us-navy

[fossil summit]

here's the x link: https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2043005033600479516

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM)

U.S. Forces Start Mine Clearance Mission in Strait of Hormuz

X · Apr 11, 2026, 4:35 PM

https://xcancel.com/mercoglianos/status/2043009657090777113#m

Seems like Sal is an okay source.

[serene walrus]

Michael Murray was last pinged on the other side of the strait

And Sal Mercogliano is well respected and i think some Bellingcat staff has spoken well of him on maritime matters

[fossil summit]

yeah. i'm curious when/if iran told them to turn back.

[keen spear]

borders on speculation but I asked someone ex-military and they suggested these destroyers can carry helicopters specialised in detecting below-the-surface threats, so if any evidence comes up of helicopters with them it may point to a more than symbolic voyage

[balmy trail]

What evidence do you have that it’s just symbolic? Given the known technology available it’s very plausible mine detection operations are taking place, let alone the unknown tech being used.

[azure glade]

The two-DDG quick transit described above doesn't cut it for demining operations. It just means that those two particular ships didn't hit a mine. It's a slow, exhaustive search process regardless of the platform. There is no information suggesting that the LCS with demining modules are anywhere near the Gulf. If you want to speculate that there are novel unmanned platforms searching for mines, then, well, I guess we'll find out in a few weeks if they find any. In the meantime, there's no conclusion to draw.
Also, Iran has drift mines, so a narrow swept corridor isn't necessarily safe either.

[undone bison]

https://x.com/i/status/2043002310444347846 also look at the others of today for info, new strikes bases duscovered

EpicFuryMap (@EpicFuryMap)

9/ Warehouses/hangars/piers at Bandar Mashar port destroyed between 12th and 17th March 2026
Coordinates: 30.4958, 49.20542
Source: https://t.co/yLri2hYkNa and https://t.co/6cL0Odfa0O

X · Apr 11, 2026, 4:24 PM

[fossil summit]

https://xcancel.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/2042901705738604724#m

https://fortune.com/2026/04/11/us-navy-ships-strait-of-hormuz-crossing-ceasefire-talks-pakistan/

archive: https://archive.is/MvFOo

Several US navy ships crossed Hormuz on Saturday in an operation that wasn’t coordinated with Iran, Axios reported earlier, citing a US official it didn’t identify. The ships crossed the strait from east to west to the Gulf before making their way back to the Arabian sea, according to the report.

However, a regional intelligence official said two US Navy Arleigh Burke–class destroyers that attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday were forced to turn back after encountering threats from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which also launched a UAV in the direction of the vessels.

[waxen rock]

https://aje.news/ndjgyz?update=4483656

Netanyahu promised that Israel’s military campaign against Iran “is not over” even though Israel has already made what he described as “historic achievements”.

“We hit them, we still have more to do,” he said.

[timid gate]

https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/2043073887504642385

Drop Site (@DropSiteNews)

🗞️ Negotiation Updates | 5 PM ET
︀︀
︀︀🔴 Iran–U.S. talks in Islamabad have now continued for more than 8 hours, according to Iranian media.
︀︀
︀︀▪️ A new round of trilateral negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Pakistan began around 4PM ET, with Pakistani officials mediating and in the room.
︀︀▫️Abbas Araghchi, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Ali Bagheri Kani are representing Iran.
︀︀▫️JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are representing the U.S.
︀︀
︀︀▪️ Fars reports that due to what Iranian officials describe as “excessive demands” from the U.S., this round likely represents the final opportunity for both sides to reach a common framework.
︀︀
︀︀Talks are ongoing.

**💬 2 🔁 3 ❤️ 24 👁️ 1.7K **

FxTwitter · Apr 11, 2026, 9:09 PM

[timid jungle]

Unconventional naval warfare analyst HI Sutton's March 2026 guide to Iran's naval mines:
https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/i/status/2043046376141963732

Asma Shirazi (@asmashirazi)

Big Development:
If PM Shahbaz Sharif is travelling to KSA on emergency basis that likely means USA and Iran are agreed that Pakistan and KSA will be doing joint patrolling of the Strait of Hormuz: my sources in Washington DC confirm.

X · Apr 11, 2026, 7:19 PM

[fossil summit]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-892634

[glad vector]

https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2043101502156476865?s=20

Drop Site (@DropSiteNews)

🚨 BREAKING | Iran–U.S. Talks to Continue Sunday After No Agreement

Iran–U.S. negotiations in Islamabad will resume Sunday, after the latest round ended without resolving key disputes, according to Tasnim News Agency and Fars News Agency.

➤ The continuation into Sunday

X · Apr 11, 2026, 10:58 PM

[void roost]

https://www.thejournal.ie/us-aircraft-shannon-attacked-7009833-Apr2026/

[void roost]

https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-casualties-reported-missile-strikes-israel/?id=131757074&entryId=131959245

[void roost]

Vance announces no agreement with Iran after 22 hours of discussion https://www.threads.com/@vincedmonroy/post/DXA3gCHEm6S?

Video at link

[wide moon]

https://vxtwitter.com/sahouraxo/status/2043038647805428036 does anyone have verification of this video

sarah (@sahouraxo)

BREAKING:

Israel is dropping white phosphorus bombs on civilian areas in Al-Tiri, South Lebanon.

These are internationally banned munitions, and Israel is using them against civilians.

▶ Play video

vxTwitter / fixvx · Apr 11, 2026, 6:49 PM

[waxen rock]

a BBC article that discusses this extremely sus account:
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43745629

[mint moon]

So... about that unconditional surrender?

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/Rep_Stansbury/status/2043210595877728276?s=20

Rep. Melanie Stansbury (@Rep_Stansbury)

Why were the President and Secretary of State at a UFC fight tonight—while two real estate bros and the VP were trying to negotiate ending a war?

And we’re wondering why it failed…?

X · Apr 12, 2026, 6:12 AM

[carmine hollow]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/12/middle-east-crisis-live-us-iran-pakistan-peace-talks-jd-vance-delegation-leaves-without-a-deal

[shadow vortex]

Didn't they unsanction Iranian oil specifically to keep oil from skyrocketing?

[carmine hollow]

Consistency not their strong point

[keen spear]

so America removed some of its sanctions on buying Iranian oil and demanded the strait re-open for a ceasefire, but now the ceasefire talks have seemingly hit a wall they're blocking Iranian ships and 'blockading' the strait themselves? I really don't understand

[novel sail]

You are trying to make sense where there is none, There isnt a line to follow, just a stream of irrational desicions made up in the moment.

[shadow vortex]

When Trump sends Witkoff and Kushner I think it's safe to assume these aren't talks so much as capitulation demands... there has to be some technical experts or diplomats on the scene for anything to be achieved realistically.

[waxen rock]

https://www.trumpstruth.org/statuses/37721
he's saying that he wants to cut off iran's toll revenue. it's at least cognizable as an attempt to apply leverage, whether or not it's a good strategy

[slender idol]

Here are the actual posts...

[timid vine]

China gets oil from Iran and claims have been posted here that China forced Iran into the negotiations. So it may be related.
Or its a random reactions who someone thought was a good idea. Its hard to tell with this administration.

[serene walrus]

https://fxtwitter.com/CENTCOM/status/2043005033600479516

This is what centcom says

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM)

📰 U.S. Forces Start Mine Clearance Mission in Strait of Hormuz
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began setting conditions for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, April 11, as two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers conducted operations.

USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

“Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM.

The Strait of Hormuz is an international sea passage and an essential trade corridor that supports regional and global economic prosperity. Additional U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance effor…

FxTwitter · Apr 11, 2026, 4:35 PM

[novel sail]

Does the US really have enough ships in the area to enforce a blockade?

[golden zodiac]

If they were willing to commit to it then they could, but it'd be a fairly major commitment

[bright harbor]

They can definitely do what they say here (block ships that have paid tolls to Iran, clear mines as long as there is a ceasefire). Ending Iran's ability to block ships that haven't paid tolls, that is very questionable. In practice, of course, this combination means that no one is getting through.

[golden zodiac]

Quite possibly larger than any current commitment unless they were really clever. Would need to recheck a few things.

[novel sail]

And can they really clear mines?

[bright harbor]

During the ceasefire it is not a problem, even with less than optimal resources. Once the ceasefire ends, then clearing mines becomes a very risky activity, as each mine cleared requires the vessel to be stationary for many hours. I don't know how Iran's antiship missiles fare against moving targets, but their ability against stationary targets should be well known by now.

[slender idol]

Regarding the discussion of US Navy Minesweeping capabality, there is an important caveat here, the MCM's onboard the Independence class LCS are modular, so even though the ships listed in that article haven't been spotted operating in the Gulf; any of the Independence LCS operating in the Gulf can have the MCM mission package currently installed onboard.
https://www.seaforces.org/wpnsys/SURFACE/LCS-mission-modules.htm
https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/2167494/littoral-combat-ships-mission-modules/

[fossil summit]

https://xcancel.com/JuddLegum/status/2043155404306223448#m

[velvet zenith]

Pilots must be current or former Ohio State University students with that University logo on the tail ?

Oh no, they are based at Rickenbacker airport in Ohio https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2003741163/

[shadow vortex]

There is very contradictory evidence regarding Saudi's stance on this war, from before it began until today. It's clear that they need the US to force Hormuz open and cut a deal with Iran that immunizes Saudi from future Iranian pressure, but the evidence that they seek "regime change" specifically I have not seen, nor have they voiced it openly, and some of their mouthpieces say they just want the war over.

[warm jackal]

they are from the 121 arw, a part of the Ohio Air National Guard. They are based out of Rickenbacker ANGB in Columbus, Ohio. They were deployed during the current Iran war and lost one KC-135 Stratotanker

[shadow vortex]

It's very hard to tell what really went on or was discussed at negotiations, press apparently were not even allowed near, but it may be worth looking at Islamabad journalists for leaks... any Urdu speakers here know who might he worth following?

[sinful pagoda]

Note that it's not mines, but Iran can easily send FPVs and USVs as well to any ship trying to blockade.

And if the war games between Ukraine and NATO serve as a reference, I wouldn't expect readiness from the US against those.

[void roost]

Detailed story from Pakistan English language newspaper. No “leaks” but perspective from Pakistani side https://www.dawn.com/news/1990743/dar-urges-us-iran-to-uphold-commitment-to-ceasefire-as-talks-conclude-without-deal

[serene walrus]

you need to be careful about taking too many deep lessons from wargames from topline reporting, they often do wackass scenario restrictions to stress test, and is why we get stories like "F-15 shoots down F-22" from them when if you read the available AARs for them it turns out that they put the F-15 at massive advantage before starting the engagement

Millenium Challenge is also something to be careful about because that's oft cited but the RedFor commander cheated with speedboats carrying payloads that weren't physically possible and having hand delivered messages still be transmitted instantaneously

[sinful pagoda]

Of course, that's why I said if they serve as reference. But those exercises illustrated difficulty of detection.

The point I'm making is simply as something to be aware of.

[fossil summit]

No arguments from me. I know Legum/Popular Info generally has good investigative work, so thought I’d post.

[serene walrus]

I think part of it is the Saudis have a public stance and a private stance (which, well, everyone has tbh) which is what forms the contradictions

[ocean storm]

Just in case, International Kriegsspiel Society has a very active discord server if anyone wants to play around with the original wargame and its later versions.

[fossil summit]

grain of salt, trump talking about the blockade: #1330709161385922650 message

[floral dawn]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/world/middleeast/iran-strait-of-hormuz-uranium-stockpile-sticking-points.html
(https://archive.is/zByPk)

By early Sunday, three main sticking points remained, according to two Iranian officials familiar with the talks: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium; and Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released.

[azure glade]

Food imports too

[fossil summit]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-says-navy-destroyers-working-to-de-mine-strait-of-hormuz/

curious. "A Pakistani source also denied that any US vessel had passed through the waterway."

[weary escarp]

https://aje.news/x545rk?update=4486509

[shadow vortex]

Can someone who maths explain this? I'm guessing BSOH is "blockade of Strait of Hormuz"? https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2043425869570416802

محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf)

Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.

ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)

X · Apr 12, 2026, 8:27 PM

[void roost]

Centcom announces blockade. Can someone screenshot on X Xcancel is not bringing up article. FTR government should not communicate this way. http://x.com/i/article/2043411331861057536

🚨 BREAKING — IT'S OFFICIAL: CENTCOM has announced a FULL US NAVY BLOCKADE of the Strait of Hormuz will begin MONDAY at 10am ET, following President Trump’s order

It’s happening.

“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, CENTCOM said in a statement. “CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

https://www.threads.com/@garretteborn40?

[waxen rock]

he's just saying trump is reducing global supply further, which, sure

[soft moth]

That makes more sense, kinda what I thought was the game plan. Rather than have IRGC dictate what goes on in the Strait. I expect Iran to put out many statements now, to confuse us further.

[timid jungle]

US combat commands typically publish such announcements on both X and their website:

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4457255/us-to-blockade-ships-entering-or-exiting-iranian-ports/

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.

The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade. All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.

[waxen rock]

centcom is specifying ships entering iranian ports, which is not actually the same thing trump said

[void roost]

Thanks — I assumed they would but when I checked it was not up yet apparently.

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2043473933052129450?s=20
Not sure if this is accurate - I tried checking their news sites but perhaps it was on TV?

Disclose.tv (@disclosetv)

JUST IN - Israeli media, including Ynet, Channel 12, and Kan, are reporting that the IDF is gearing up for renewed conflict with Iran — Times of Israel

X · Apr 12, 2026, 11:38 PM

[nova owl]

A "top" negotiator? Is that sarcasm?

[tiny path]

No. "Top" in the sense of position, not "top" in the sense of talent.

[weak pike]

https://www.twz.com/sea/carrier-tracker-as-of-april-12-2026

[void roost]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd8jrd1vnyo

BBC tracked down the operator behind Iran’s Lego AI propaganda videos.

He’s been saying his outlet is “totally independent.”

He just admitted the Iranian regime is a direct customer. First time he’s confirmed it publicly.

https://www.threads.com/@ash.renee411/post/DXDrrQ-AF-5?

[novel sail]

FPV:s are not very useful against a warship that is not russian. But Iran have Anti-ship missiles launched from trucks that can cover the entire strait, and that is really hard to deal with.

[raven stag]

And the plan was blockade the straights, then it became the ports.

And the ports are closer to Iran than the middle of the sea.

[tiny path]

Having a hard time connecting this to what's been said. Can you clarify what you're trying to say?

[raven stag]

That Iran will have an easier time hitting US ships just off their shores than at the opening of the straights

It is a risky plan. The Iranian coastline is roughly the length of the US west coast.

[tiny path]

I get that, but where are you getting this from?

[raven stag]

Shucky's post from a few hours ago

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4457255/us-to-blockade-ships-entering-or-exiting-iranian-ports/

The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

[tiny path]

OK, so the observation is that the ports are a weaker position than a blockade of the strait?

[raven stag]

The observation is that it is reasonably easy to hit us naval vessels that are off the coast of Iran for hundreds of miles

Which is easily foreseeable, but Trump and Centcom insist that this will work

[bright harbor]

It really depends on what kind of an ASM arsenal Iran has against moving targets. They have a decent capability on paper, but so far they have not really demonstrated it in scale. It can be more like their domestic ballistic/cruise missile program against stationary targets (which has worked more or less as advertized) or more like their domestic air defense program (which has not).

FWIW: enforcing a blockade really just means having a convincing ability & willingness to strike ships that violate it, which deters civilian traffic. This is how Iran has been blockading the strait so far. USA has the air power to do that already before any naval capabilities. The naval movements are for something else.

[bright harbor]

To be exact, this depends on the blockade, if you are applying it against specific goods then you need to physically inspect the traffic. But if it is on all vessels of all kinds, like here, then it is enough to have strike capability.

[oak raptor]

The balance between "willingness & ability to strike" and "willingness and ability to board" depends on the type and degree of blockade. A lawful blockade, whether distant or close-in, would almost certainly require a significant boarding capability to uphold the right of neutral shipping and comply with prize law relevant to non-Iranian-flagged vessels. Relying purely on the ability to strike would require them to be ready to strike vessels under the flag of neutral parties associated with China, India, or even formal US allies. This offers an interesting overview of blockade in modern naval warfare: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8166&context=nwc-review

[bright harbor]

Is there even such a thing as a lawful blockade outside an explicitly UNSC sanctioned one?

[fossil summit]

CENTCOM says vessels in blockaded ⁠area subject to ⁠interception and capture

The US ⁠military is to enforce a blockade of all vessels, regardless of flag, in the Gulf of Oman and ⁠Arabian Sea east of the Strait of ⁠Hormuz, the US ‌Central Command (CENTCOM) has said in a note to seafarers seen by the Reuters news agency.

https://aje.news/czjcze?update=4488691

[fresh wharf]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-u-s-sank-one-of-irans-navies-the-other-still-controls-hormuz-98ea16ff
“Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank, said more than 60% of the Revolutionary Guard’s fast-attack craft and speedboat fleet remains intact. They are continuing to pose a threat.”

[soft moth]

Seems like Irans proxies in Iraq are still continuing on launching attacks towards other Gulf countries.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2026/04/10/drone-strikes-targeting-kuwait-originated-from-iraq-sources-say

https://english.aawsat.com/gulf/5261566-saudi-arabia-summons-iraq’s-ambassador-over-drone-threats

https://www.gdnonline.com/Details/1381368/Foreign-Ministry-summons-Iraqi-Chargé-dAffaires-over-drone-attacks-launched-from-Iraq

[near grail]

I'm curious if there are any vessels transiting the Strait following this news, under the Iranian flag or not, considering that the mines in the Strait are still unaccounted for.

[soft moth]

As expected……

The security of ports in the region is “either for everyone or for no one,” Iran’s armed forces said in a statement on Monday, according to the state-run IRIB News. The US threat to block the strait would be “an act of piracy,” it said, reiterating plans to permanently control the critical waterway even after the war.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/iran-sends-warning-on-gulf-ports-after-us-threat-to-block-hormuz

[glad vector]

Just kidding, trump tweeted the USN will sink anything trying to run the blockade like it's a drug boat: https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37744

[timid jungle]

UKMTO Advisory 035-26 published regarding the US imposed blockade:
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260413_ukmto_advisory_035-26.pdf?

UKMTO have been informed that, effective from 1400 UTC on 13 April 2026, maritime access
restrictions are being enforced affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along
the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.
These access restrictions apply without distinction to vessels of any flag engaging with Iranian
ports, oil terminals, or coastal facilities. UKMTO understands that formal details of these
measures, including enforcement provisions and exemptions, will be promulgated and updated
through official Notice to Mariners (NTM).

Based on information currently available to UKMTO:

• The restrictions encompass the entirety of the Iranian coastline, including ports and energy
  infrastructure.
• Transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations is not
  reported to be impeded by these measures; however, vessels may encounter military
  presence, directed communications, or right-of-visit procedures during passage.
• Neutral vessels currently within Iranian ports have been granted a limited grace period to
  depart, as will be specified in the NTM.
• All other threat, maritime security, and navigation assessments remain extant as outlined in
  the latest JMIC advisory products.

[midnight salmon]

Looks like Iran-flagged TABAN1 went through https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:658716 https://atlas.flexport.com/vessel/id:3ae560cf-baa2-4ec9-a021-205deac9c9fb/imo:9420368/mmsi:422814000/name:taban1

[weak pike]

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/iran-uranium-enrichment-moratorium-talks-vance

[floral dawn]

The article was paywalled for me, in case it is for anyone else too ➡️ https://archive.is/joXc4

[novel sail]

So they are trying to repair the damage done when they destroyed the deal indended to do just that..

[serene walrus]

https://fixupx.com/HormuzLetter/status/2043724637885059133?s=20

Can anyone find the source of this Statement?

The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter)

BREAKING: In a direct message to the Trump administration and the US Navy, China's Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun says Chinese ships will continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz through agreements with Iran, and warns the US not to "meddle in our affairs."
︀︀
︀︀Also from Dong's statement:
︀︀
︀︀1. Says Chinese ships are currently "moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz"
︀︀
︀︀2. Confirms China has existing "trade and energy agreements with Iran" that China will "respect and honor"
︀︀
︀︀3. Explicitly states: "Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us," recognizing Iranian sovereignty over transit

**💬 388 🔁 4.2K ❤️ 19.9K 👁️ 1.10M **

FixupX · Apr 13, 2026, 4:14 PM

[waxen rock]

doesn't sound like their actual statements:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-urges-restraint-over-us-blockade-strait-hormuz-backs-talks-2026-04-13/

[serene walrus]

https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2043765952291000479

Drop Site seems to be amplifying it but also notably doesn't cite anything

[woeful oar]

Drop site is notoriously bad for sharing skewed or fake stuff

[night haven]

FWIW The War Zone cites the same statement but says it was made on Sunday before the blockade took effect, which doesn't match Drop Site

https://www.twz.com/news-features/naval-blockade-of-iran-now-in-full-effect

[serene walrus]

is there a list of examples? somebody i know follows them, primarily for middle east reporting

and i've heard about drop site's reliability (or lake thereof) but always in broad strokes

[woeful oar]

I don't have it on my phone but I know Project OWL put a tag on their links for it. I wouldn't instantly discount them but they're also a pretty opinionated source.

[merry cairn]

On CNN live thread a couple hours ago :https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/13/world/live-news/iran-us-war-trump-hormuz?post-id=cmnxik6pv00043b6vabmyfqei

On MarineTraffic the position of Elpis was last updated an hour ago, still on his way unimpeded.

[serene walrus]

where to?

[fossil summit]

Oh I saw that earlier on marine traffic because I recognized the name
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.6/centery:26.3/zoom:9

[merry cairn]

There is nothing for now as to where it is headed:

[timid jungle]

Avenger class mine-hunters USS Chief (MCM-14 MMSI: 338968000) and USS Pioneer (MCM-9 MMSI: 303821000) currently broadcasting AIS off Phuket, Thailand.

On Saturday, USNI News reported over the weekend they were headed to CENTCOM's AOR

This week, two Japan-based Avenger-class minesweepers were dispatched toward U.S. Central Command. USS Pioneer (MCM-9) and USS Chief (MCM-14) came into port in Singapore after transiting the South China Sea.

[timid jungle]

USNI News is reporting that CVN-77 is headed to the CENTCOM AOR via the Cape of Good Hope:
https://fixupx.com/USNINews/status/2043769743262237115/en

This appears to conflict with social media reports that the CSG transited the Strait of Gibraltar #maritime message

USNI News (@USNINews)

USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: April 13, 2026
︀︀news.usni.org/2026/04/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-april-13-2026

**💬 1 🔁 14 ❤️ 32 👁️ 13.1K **

FixupX · Apr 13, 2026, 7:14 PM

[fossil summit]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/13/world/iran-war-trump-news#heres-the-latest

Iran War Live Updates: Iran Proposes Suspending Nuclear Activity for Up to 5 Years

Also Elpis seems to be stalled now

[fossil summit]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-25fbd430

archive: https://archive.is/hFZ9w

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/us/politics/us-iran-deal.html

archive: https://archive.is/MGbNm

[serene walrus]

Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz since start of Iran war | Reuters https://share.google/ll6aU1PqiGPeM3lPS

Any idea if any of these ships paid the toll?

[timid jungle]

US sanctioned tanker exists SoH

Lloyds List Article: https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156893/Sanctioned-Chinese-tanker-tests-US-Hormuz-blockade

Earlier today, Malawi false flagged tanker RICH STARRY (IMO: 9773301) exited the Strait. It appears to be holding in the Gulf of Oman.

Sketchy Boats (link)

[serene walrus]

Where are the ships enforcing the blockade anyways

[azure glade]

Busy with infrastructure week

[serene walrus]

lmao, but that was an honest question

Though apparently 6 ships crossing is a decrease

[timid jungle]

With the Venezuela blockade, the US effectively established an operational precedent for a flexible enforcement strategy....they don't need to park themselves within range of Iranian missiles and other threats.

Wikipedia has a helpful table showing the lengths the US was/is willing to go to enforce that blockade (including a pursuit into the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_oil_blockade_during_Operation_Southern_Spear#Summary_of_seizures_of_oil_tankers

With Venezuela, the result has been a significant number of sanction-evading vessels stuck in limbo because of the credible threat of interdiction.

Whether there's the political will to apply that same logic in the Middle Eastern Gulf, against vessels/crews from or affiliated with non-allied nations (China in particular), remains to be seen.

[fossil summit]

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-trump-blockade-iran-war-hormuz-israel-lebanon-talks-rcna331668/rcrd107955?canonicalCard=true

[void roost]

http://reut.rs/4tuvErb

[serene walrus]

yeah it looks like one of hte most cited vessels did a u-turn https://bsky.app/profile/andyscollick.bsky.social/post/3mjhk3hdqhk2z

Andy Scollick (@andyscollick.bsky.social)

Plenty of news stories about the Chinese owned "Rich Starry" chemical/oil products tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Not many news stories about the "Rich Starry" making a U-turn and heading back north.

Presumbly as a result of US Navy interdiction / blockade.

Bluesky · Apr 14, 2026, 1:59 PM

[regal trout]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574171-us-oil-exports-seen-hitting-record-52m-bblday-as-iran-war-sparks-supply-race "U.S. crude exports are projected to reach a record high 5.2M bbl/day in May, as Asian buyers snap up cargoes to offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply due to the Iran war, oil research firm Kpler said this week in the Financial Times.

"

[carmine hollow]

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156893/Sanctioned-Chinese-tanker-tests-US-Hormuz-blockade

Signs of scramble from Iran-linked ships amid US blockade

Falsely flagged US-sanctioned tanker that transited Hormuz earlier on Tuesday makes U-turn in Gulf of Oman

Centcom says it forced six vessels to turn around and ‘re-enter an Iranian port’ in the Gulf of Oman

US has offered limited details on parameters of its enforcement strategy

[floral dawn]

Reuters live Hormuz vessel tracking stream
https://www.youtube.com/live/Q69--3ZL4RM

[soft moth]

I hope there is some merit to this.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/14/us-iran-peace-talks-could-resume-in-next-two-days-trump-says

Enrichment likely to be a sticking point.

[near grail]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sanctioned-chinese-tanker-passes-strait-hormuz-despite-us-blockade-data-shows-2026-04-14/

"During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade," ​the U.S. Central Command said, adding that six vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter ⁠an Iranian port. The three Iran-linked vessels that transited the strait were not heading to Iranian ports and were not affected by the blockade. Panama-flagged Peace Gulf, a medium-range ​tanker, is heading to Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates, LSEG data showed.

Prior to this, two U.S.-sanctioned tankers passed through the narrow waterway. Handy tanker Murlikishan is heading to Iraq to load fuel oil on April 16, Kpler data showed. The vessel, formerly known as MKA, has transported Russian and Iranian oil. Another sanctioned tanker, Rich Starry, would be the first to make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf ​since the blockade began, data from LSEG and Kpler showed.

[timid jungle]

A helpful and humbling reminder from a former Royal Navy commander and columnist for the Telegraph:

https://fixupx.com/TomSharpe134/status/2044106397198037178/en

Tom Sharpe (@TomSharpe134)

🚨Calling all newly minted Marine Tracker and AIS experts😂
︀︀
︀︀Be careful seeing what you want to and claiming success or defeat based on one or two tracks
︀︀
︀︀Two things we know:
︀︀
︀︀1⃣AIS data will form a fraction of 5th fleets operating picture. This is good because it's rubbish (for this) and infinitely manipulatable
︀︀2⃣If the USN wish to board one of the very few ships allowed through the Tehran toll, they will. #Fact
︀︀
︀︀There is strategic risk in these boardings (flags🇨🇳😳) and tactical risk ('opposed' boarding and getting too close to the SoH), but no one is escaping that blockade by mistake. Not today.
︀︀
︀︀Of course there is political risk in the strategy of applying pain to Iran's oil trade through this blockade, but that is for another day.
︀︀
︀︀For now, CENTCOM is saying none have got through.
︀︀
︀︀That works for me.
︀︀
︀︀AIS wizards, stand down!

💬 11 🔁 23…

FixupX · Apr 14, 2026, 5:31 PM

For reference: Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) data puts normal SoH traffic at ~138 vessels/day. Worth keeping in mind in the days/weeks/months ahead.

Source: latest JMIC update (link)

[serene walrus]

Apparently rich starry did turn around, as noted above: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sanctioned-tanker-turns-back-strait-hormuz-day-after-gulf-exit-2026-04-15/

[novel sail]

Iran has agreed to halt enrichment before, so the main question is whether the US can convince them that they are going to honor an agreement this time...

[novel sail]

So:

[night haven]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/15/us-troops-iran-blockade/

[near grail]

Just to clarify, it isn't that these ships left the US yesterday or today; they've been in transit for some time now. It's more that they will be arriving soon that is newsworthy.

The forces moving into the region include about 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several warships escorting it, said current and former officials, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military movements. About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month.

[novel sail]

And it would also be useful to separate ship crew from combat units etc because the 6000 troops on the carrier is probably the crew, and the carrier itself, not its crew is the important asset.

[night haven]

Looking at this Haaretz story alongside the Washington Post it appears these are new troops not primarily crew or previously deployed troops that are being discussed, at least as I read it. I'd be interested in other sources reading it differently

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2026-04-15/ty-article/report-u-s-deploying-10-000-additional-troops-to-mideast-amid-iran-cease-fire/0000019d-9091-d290-afbf-b0f5757f0000

[novel sail]

Cant read that, but 10k is roughly the crew of Bush and its support/escort so its easy to believe that they refers to the crew, and if not it should be possible to find which unit they have sent and where.

[night haven]

I can't seem to get the link for the full article to load with the paywall down but here's the relevant quote, they seem to be referring to more than one ship's crew. I don't have more time this morning to fight with the Haaretz link but if I can get it working later I'll repost it.

Citing anonymous sources, the Post reported that the Pentagon is sending roughly 6,000 troops that are part of the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and 4,200 troops from the Boxer Amphibious ready group, which includes one of the seven Marine Corps units.
U.S. military officials have previously said that roughly 50,000 troops had been involved in operations in Iran since the war broke out on February 28.

[novel sail]

Which is pretty much the same as the Washington post, but yes, its not only the ship crew, at least not in the case of the USS Boxer, but its both ship crew and combat units.

A marine expeditionary unit is about 2200 troops and the 11th MEU is with Boxer and another one w Tripoli. So logically the 4200 troops from the Boxer Amphibious ready group is 2000 crew and 2200 Marines.

[smoky pulsar]

Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases

https://archive.is/1jVzI (paywall bypass)

https://www.ft.com/content/1fddd2cd-1294-4e9c-a17d-5ea06b399355

[timid jungle]

US CENTCOM posted what appears to be their maritime VHF broadcast enforcing the blockade:

https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2044442538694582501/en

The U.S has announced a formal blockade of Iranian
ports and coastal areas This is a legal action
All vessels are advised to immediately return the port if leaving
And discontinue transit to Iran, If that's your next port of call
Do not attempt to breach the Blockade
Vessels will be boarded for interdiction & seizure
Transiting To or From an Iranian Port
Turn around or prepare to Be Boarded
If you do Not comply with this blockade,
We Will Use Force 
The Whole Of United States Navy Is Ready to Force Compliance
Out

(Transcript via yt-dlp, cleaned with grep/sed, and manually edited for accuracy )

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM)

U.S. naval vessels are on patrol in the Gulf of Oman as CENTCOM continues to execute a U.S. blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports. U.S. forces are present, vigilant, and ready to ensure compliance.

**💬 85 🔁 375 ❤️ 1.5K 👁️ 39.4K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 15, 2026, 3:47 PM

[fossil summit]

The Senate votes for the fourth time this year to block debate on an Iran war powers resolution by Democrats requiring congressional authorization for further military action against Iran. (Majority votes against blocking Trump's war effort).
https://www.c-span.org/congress/?chamber=senate&date=2026-04-15

[serene walrus]

https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3mjkisihph22o

George Pearkes (@peark.es)

Stocks at new highs - this is correctly being viewed as Iran making a significant concession

*IRAN MULLS FREE SHIP PASSAGE IN HORMUZ VIA OMAN SIDE: RTRS
*IRAN POSSIBLE OFFER HINGES ON US MEETING TEHRAN'S DEMANDS: RTRS

Bluesky · Apr 15, 2026, 6:14 PM

Looks like thats a bloomberg terminal feed drop so I'll try to find the article

Edit: found it

Exclusive: Iran offers proposal allowing ships to exit Oman side of Hormuz free of attack, source says | Reuters https://share.google/JkDjTZTCGgPKXHrRm

[fossil summit]

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/04/15/us-stacks-three-carrier-groups-and-10-destroyers-to-blockade-strait-of-hormuz/

[weak pike]

From the Financial Times:
"Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases."

https://archive.is/ZtUDM

[weak pike]

BBC News - Lyse Doucet: Under fragile ceasefire, Iranians wonder if US deal can be done
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gj7rgno

[void roost]

👀 https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-approaches-automakers-manufacturers-to-boost-weapons-production-19538557?

The Pentagon has reached out to U.S. automakers and manufacturers (including Ford and GM) in an effort to boost weapons production for the military, according to the Wall Street Journal.

[fossil summit]

Archive: https://archive.is/EHIuO

[void roost]

EU running low on jet fuel due to conflict #eu-uk message

[near grail]

this is openly an AI-generated site

[regal trout]

its all AI? but the sources provided lead to real life websites

[serene walrus]

public transit in Europe is fairly solid so I'd lean on that a fair bit more, i've done traveling in europe and don't think a car is strictly necessary depending on your itinerary

I don't think most people will care too much but yeah as a tourist try not to stand out too much lol

lol yeah probably

[slender idol]

https://fixupx.com/supbrow/status/2044681380525932780?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw

Charlie B (@supbrow)

Called it.
︀︀
︀︀@CENTCOM @US5thFleet #NCAGS just published the Contraband List.
︀︀
︀︀"In addition to enforcing the blockade, all Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions, and vessels suspected of carrying contraband, are subject to belligerent right to visit and search. These vessels, regardless of location, are subject to visit, board, search, and seizure."
︀︀
︀︀Watch out ships Dark Feet ships in the waters of Southeast Asia and especially, the Malaysian EOPL
︀︀
︀︀See the @UANI #GhostArmada list of +570 ships that have supported Iran oil exports.
︀︀
︀︀They are now potentially subject to interdiction and seizure under the Laws of Naval Warfare (see tweet below).
︀︀
︀︀Neutral States should also watch out to ensure they are acting neutrally.
︀︀
︀︀@JemimaShelley @mercoglianos @cdrsalamander
︀︀@MarcusHand1 @tldraanan @ChongJaIan @graham_euan @CollinSLKoh @TankerTrackers @HunterStires @alessionaval

Quoting C…

FixupX · Apr 16, 2026, 7:36 AM

[weak pike]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-iran-blockade-warning-shots/

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/2044787198587752828?s=20

Idrees Ali (@idreesali114)

DUBAI, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return ​to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters.

X · Apr 16, 2026, 2:37 PM

[fossil summit]

i think from this: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-us-narrow-differences-after-pakistani-mediation-splits-remain-senior-2026-04-16/

[fossil summit]

Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/us-iran-deal-will-take-months-gulf-and-european-officials-say

[timid jungle]

US Centcom claims 14 vessels turned around in 72 hours in compliance with US blockade

https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2044778409419567489/en

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM)

U.S. forces are focused, vigilant, and highly motivated as they execute a blockade on vessels attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports. After 72 hours of enforcement, 14 vessels have turned around to comply with the blockade at the direction of American forces.

**💬 168 🔁 653 ❤️ 3.1K 👁️ 158.5K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 16, 2026, 2:02 PM

[shadow vortex]

Welp
https://x.com/i/status/2044826475400962419

Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich)

US officials tell me this is NOT true

X · Apr 16, 2026, 5:13 PM

[timid jungle]

‼️ This is a big deal:

In addition to enforcing the blockade, all Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions, and vessels suspected of carrying contraband, are subject to belligerent right to visit and search. These vessels, regardless of location, are subject to visit, board, search, and seizure. [Emphasis added]

[waxen rock]

https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703

[near grail]

Yeah, I'm reading this tweet too, seems like a boarding would be extremely likely if anyone tries to challenge the blockade:
https://xcancel.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2044683602638868959

[tiny path]

This isn't a rhetorical question: Can the US act on OFAC restrictions outside its EEZ? From an international law standpoint.

[timid jungle]

Short answer: No.....not on OFAC authority alone, and that's part of what make this update significant.

OFAC sanctions are a US domestic regulatory tool. They restrict US persons and businesses from transacting with sanctioned entities. They don't confer any right to board vessels on the high seas. UNCLOS Article 110's list of boarding triggers (piracy, slave trade, stateless vessels, etc.) doesn't include "sanctioned by the US Treasury."

What this document is doing is grafting OFAC status onto belligerent rights under the law of armed conflict.

A lawfully declared blockade does authorize seizure of contraband regardless of flag . But the first point of the update extends that to OFAC-sanctioned vessels "regardless of location," outside the blockade zone entirely.

That's a novel assertion: that OFAC designation alone is sufficient to make a vessel an enemy asset subject to interdiction anywhere in the world.

...it's even looser than that...it applies to vessels suspected of carrying contraband (not just sanctioned vessels) regardless of location.

There is a legal mechanism the US has available....many sanctioned and shadow fleet vessels are falsely registered, and that alone gives any state the right to board them under UNCLOS ( though it's rarely invoked in practice.)

This update is going well beyond that.

I don't think it's an exaggeration to wonder if this update (if enforced) in effect sets aside the principle of freedom of navigation for the duration of the conflict.

[fading elm]

In my view this is just a restatement of the right to visit, is it not? And that the US is using the OFAC status as a guide as to which ships they choose to exercise a right to visit since we are in a state of belligerence with Iran. There isn't a necessary trigger under Article 110 to exercise a visit, but the follow through actions (boarding and onward) require those triggers you list.

[timid jungle]

USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) hails vessel in enforcement of US Blockade

https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2044885172693426542/en

The audio is unclear, but the hailed vessel may be the false flagged and OFAC sanctioned MALI (IMO: 9229439)

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM)

Audio🔊of a Sailor aboard USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112), with video from the guided-missile destroyer’s embarked helicopter flying over the Gulf of Oman, as the U.S. Navy diverts a merchant vessel while enforcing the blockade on ships entering or departing Iranian ports. U.S. forces are prepared to sustain the blockade as long as it takes.

**💬 100 🔁 378 ❤️ 1.4K 👁️ 49.6K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 16, 2026, 9:06 PM

[waxen rock]

multiple anecdotes here about supply shortages on the tripoli in particular:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/iran-war-mail-packages-middle-east/89609308007/

[oak raptor]

The fact that the U.S. is in a state of war with Iran at the makes the legal analysis (and heavy reliance on 110) a bit complicated, but I agree with Schucky that OFAC sanctions as a sole basis for seizure anywhere in the world is legally dubious unless they in practice scope down to vessels without nationality or the vessels are Iranian-flagged or suspected of carrying contraband.

[novel sail]

So the implication is that they where just unprepared to go to the ME and did not have enough supplies onboard when the order came..

[raven stag]

They presumably enough supplies for the scheduled 6 month deployment

[weak pike]

"The US Navy is assembling its Avengers, but it will need allies to clear Hormuz of mines.
Both America and Britain have retired specialist vessels in favour of unproven autonomous technology "

https://archive.is/sHGPm

[novel sail]

Countries around the baltic sea have plenty of minesweepers.

[carmine hollow]

Middle East crisis live: Iran to fully open strait of Hormuz during ceasefire, foreign minister says https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/17/middle-east-crisis-live-news-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-iran-war-us-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-69e22e688f089feed64f4832#block-69e22e688f089feed64f4832

[novel sail]

Which means that Iran held their word that they would open the strait if Lebanon was included in the cease fire.

[shadow vortex]

If you read Araqchi's statement:
Iran has "opened" (only to commercial, not military, ships) the "Strait of Hormuz" (the part that's their own traffic scheme, while US blockade remains) for the duration of the "ceasefire" (rickety pause that Israel is quite upset about).
https://x.com/i/status/2045121573124759713

Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi)

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

X · Apr 17, 2026, 12:45 PM

[tulip nebula]

Anyone know how long it would realistically take to remove all those mines Iran placed in the strait?

[near grail]

I think we'd have to defer to expert opinions & research, but IIRC the timeline for that is many months at the least , potentially years on severity and scale required for cleaning up ALL mines I think years might be sensationalized, looking for citations

https://www.npr.org/2026/04/01/nx-s1-5766222/mines-persian-gulf-strait-navy-lcs

tl;dr--faster if more nations with more demining equipment join the effort, slower if it's solely American resources & the longer transiting the Strait is unsafe to even begin preliminary efforts

[tulip nebula]

And regarding insurers being willing:

“London insurers launch $1 bn war cover for Hormuz shipping:

London shipping insurers have agreed to provide $1 billion in extra coverage for vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route paralysed by the Middle East war, in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.”

https://www.spacewar.com/afp/260417114939.85130497.html

[fading elm]

My final post on this as it will probably only go further into the legal weeds beyond it (lawyer brain is real) but I think the legality needs addressed. That we are at war with iran makes this completely unambiguous under international customary law (US uses UNCLOS but not a party) and the handbook on the law of naval operations. We need to read the entire update/notice not just 1 small section. If anything this goes beyond what is legally required by issuing a full warning and listing out all items of contraband which are subject to seizure. Long before UNCLOS and under UNCLOS it is a well recognized right of belligerents to visit and when justified search apparently neutral merchant vessels. If the owner of a vessel feels that their rights have been violated its a matter that can be resolved in civil courts, even an overburdensome right of visit can lead to compensation, although rare.

[fossil summit]

i know it's axios
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-us-deal-20-billion-frozen-funds-uranium
archive: https://archive.is/iy8qT

[fossil summit]

big ❓

"We're going to get ‌it together. We're going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery... We'll bring it back to the United ​States," Trump said during a phone interview.

and

Responding to a report that ​the United States was considering a $20 billion cash for uranium deal, Trump said: "It's totally false. No money ​is changing hands."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-recover-uranium-iran-trump-tells-reuters-2026-04-17/

[shadow vortex]

I can only imagine he means there will be US/third party observers present when Iran recovers it?

[novel sail]

I dont think he have a slighest idea of how it would happen, but i imagine Iran could accept IAEA inspections.

[night haven]

Honestly, I think he actually thinks a few US soldiers a few Iranians will go down and get the nuclear dust as he calls it. I don't think he has any idea that soldiers are not equipped to handle nuclear materials at this level because remember he gets a lot of his information from movies and TV. And in movies and TV anybody can handle nuclear stuff that the bad guys have taken somewhere else. Of course, none of this takes into account the fact that it was reported earlier that Iran was putting barricades on all the roads leading to the entrance at isfahan and that they have said multiple times in regard to these negotiations that they are not giving up their nuclear capability

[fossil summit]

I haven’t seen anything on Iran agreeing to this.

Hassan Ahmadian, associate professor at the University of Tehran, says he is confident that “nothing” has been agreed between the US and Iran over the nuclear issue, despite Trump’s claim that Iranian authorities will hand over the country’s enriched uranium.

Iran's Parliamentary National Security Committee Spokesman to Al Jazeera Mubasher: We will not allow the removal of uranium from Iran, and the American statements on social media differ from reality.

https://aje.news/zo0udq?update=4500892

[night haven]

Just to be clear, I wasn't thinking you posted it as verified truth, only that it's likely Trump believes it could happen the way he is claiming even though his claims go against both science and what Iran has said and done so far

[fossil summit]

all good, didn’t think you meant that either.

[shadow vortex]

I doubt that Trump really believes that.
I spoke to an Omani expert who tells me the working assumption is that the US is setting up to resume the war soon, based on military rather than media/diplomatic analysis. That's part of why Israel was so quickly mollified.

[civic delta]

The ships don’t stock six months worth of food. They are normally replenished underway.

[shadow vortex]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-iranians-have-agreed-to-everything-including-removal-of-enriched-uranium/

President Trump said in a phone interview that Iran has "agreed to everything," and will work with the U.S. to remove its enriched uranium.

He insisted that doing so will not involve U.S. ground troops. But when asked who would retrieve it, he would only say "our people."

"No. No troops," he said. "We'll go down and get it with them, and then we'll take it. We'll be getting it together because by that time, we'll have an agreement and there's no need for fighting when there's an agreement. Nice right? That's better. We would have done it the other way if we had to."

The president said the material would then be brought to the U.S.

"Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States," he said.

The president also said Iran has agreed to stop backing proxy terrorist groups, like Hezbollah and Hamas.

When asked when he would be announcing the deal, Mr. Trump said the two sides are meeting this weekend and that the U.S. would continue its blockade "until we get it done."

Although Axios reported that the Trump administration was discussing the possibility of releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for its nuclear stockpile, the president denied it: "No, we are not paying 10 cents."

This sounds like he is going to continue the war.

[knotty cedar]

I'm going to feel so old if they end up signing a clone of the JCPOA.

[near grail]

https://fxtwitter.com/KToropin/status/2045244050995863935

Konstantin Toropin (@KToropin)

NEW: The USS Gerald R. Ford is back in the Middle East, per 2 defense officials.
︀︀
︀︀The Ford, which until recently was operating in the Eastern Mediterranean, transited the Suez Canal, along with 2 destroyers - USS Mahan and USS Winston S. Churchill - and is now in the Red Sea.

**💬 12 🔁 74 ❤️ 305 👁️ 38.9K **

FxTwitter · Apr 17, 2026, 8:52 PM

[soft moth]

Some good news, a stuck cruise ship transited the strait.

https://people.com/cruise-ship-passes-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-after-47-days-stuck-in-the-middle-east-11952937

[near grail]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5837279-iran-us-blockade-strait/

The speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, said Friday that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz again amid the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, contradicting President Trump, who said the strait was “open for business” earlier in the day.

[fossil summit]

https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970?s=20

محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf)

۱- رئیس جمهور آمریکا در یک ساعت هفت ادعا مطرح کرد که هر هفت ادعا کذب است.
۲- با این دروغگویی‌ها در جنگ پیروز نشدند و حتما در مذاکره هم راه به جایی نخواهند برد.
۳- با ادامهٔ محاصره، تنگهٔ هرمز باز...

X · Apr 17, 2026, 10:14 PM

A link to Ghalibaf’s message

[soft moth]

But the Iranian Foreign Minister said its open. I think as we’ve seen before, they’re all gonna gaslight us with contradictions. I guess we’ll have to monitor movement maps for the actual verdict.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cqxdg17yr2wt

[void roost]

Russian waivers extended https://www.threads.com/@meidastouch/post/DXQQSvDCdvE?

[waxen rock]

https://bsky.app/profile/paleofuture.bsky.social/post/3mjq5vv6eos2e

Matt Novak (@paleofuture.bsky.social)

-# ↩ Matt Novak (@paleofuture.bsky.social)
“Pharisee Press”

Likes

413

Bluesky · Apr 18, 2026, 12:15 AM

[mint drum]

note that "class I supplies" include MREs and group rations

[waxen rock]

and "days" are a fungible concept in naval rationing

[raven stag]

And some of those slabs look suspiciously like class II supplies

I kid, if course. As if Pete would spring for leather boots

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-he-has-good-news-iran-no-clarity-peace-deal-2026-04-18/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/embassy-cables-detail-how-iran-war-is-hurting-the-us-abroad-00877205

Diplomatic cables show Iran war is damaging US on multiple fronts across the world
The documents show the fallout for the US in Bahrain, Indonesia and Azerbaijan as it struggles to catch up with pro-Iran messaging.

[raven stag]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/18/middle-east-crisis-live-iran-warns-it-will-close-strait-of-hormuz-if-us-blockade-continues?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The US didn't lift its blockade and Iran only lifted it for ships willing to travel the northern route anyways

[timid jungle]

UKMTO reports first SoH attack since 7 April - crew safe

UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20NM northeast of OMAN.

The Master of a Tanker reports being approached by 2 IRGC gun boats, no VHF challenge that then fired upon the tanker.

Tanker and crew are reported safe

https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2045454330698879429/en

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO WARNING 037-26
︀︀
︀︀Click here to view the full Warning⤵️
︀︀www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260418---ukmto_warning_037_26.pdf?rev=e518a20b22064c85a823563a4f53fb74
︀︀
︀︀#MaritimeSecurity #Marsec

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FixupX · Apr 18, 2026, 10:48 AM

[timid jungle]

Second attack today reported in SoH

UKMTO has received a report of an incident 25NM northeast of OMAN.

A report of a Container Ship being hit by an unknown projectile which caused damage to some of
the containers, no fires or environment impact reported.

https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2045483088960983085/en

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO WARNING 038-26
︀︀
︀︀Click here to view the full Warning⤵️
︀︀www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260418-warning_038_26_attack.pdf?rev=5138da6d326041b5bf6d1e5e78a0835f
︀︀
︀︀#MaritimeSecurity #Marsec

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FixupX · Apr 18, 2026, 12:42 PM

[shadow vortex]

One of the most important aspects of the war. I recall a TV interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski during the early years of the Iraq war where he said a war with Iran would wreck US global influence... and that was before Trumpism.
One underexplored aspect of the conflict is how it will cause major existential security and economic challenges for US aligned regimes in MENA that will more likely than not redound to Islamism https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-iran-war-oil-fertilizer-spike-spur-instability-in-middle-east-5dd9db8d?st=kLWyiF

[timid jungle]

Third SoH incident reported today to UKMTO

UKMTO has received a report of an incident 3NM east of OMAN.

The Master of a Cruise ship reported sighting a splash in close proximity of
the vessel

https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2045491485924102204/en

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO WARNING 039-26
︀︀
︀︀Click here to view the full Warning⤵️
︀︀www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260418-warning_039_26-_suspicious-activity.pdf?rev=a9b307c7054d49978c93b7acbe3892c7
︀︀
︀︀#MaritimeSecurity #Marsec

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FixupX · Apr 18, 2026, 1:15 PM

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2045404340362604758?s=20

Iftikhar Firdous (@IftikharFirdous)

Two semi-official media outlets of Iran, traditionally considered under IRGC influence have now openly not just criticised the negotiating team but in particular the Foreign Minister of Iran, Araghci has been blamed for “concealment of facts and absence of transparency”

The

X · Apr 18, 2026, 7:29 AM

[void roost]

Purported audio of one of the ships talking to Iran to stop shooting this AM

https://www.threads.com/@joncooper.us/post/DXRucy0jsuA?

[weak pike]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2045160684955025829

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

The cruise ship Celestyal Discovery appears to have just successfully run the Strait of Hormuz.

X · Apr 17, 2026, 3:21 PM

[near grail]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-prepares-board-iran-linked-ships-coming-days-wsj-reports-2026-04-18/

Reuters ​could ​not ⁠immediately verify the ⁠report.

[timid jungle]

UKMTO Daily Summary of today's incidents:

https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2045533656802886105/photo/1

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO Daily Summary 17 Apr - 18 Apr 26
︀︀
︀︀Click here to view UKMTO Products⤵️
︀︀ukmto.org/ukmto-products
︀︀
︀︀#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec

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FixupX · Apr 18, 2026, 4:03 PM

[shadow vortex]

Would be an interesting climb-down from the idea of taking over Kharg island. In fact, it's quite weird that interdiction would not be the first method of messing with Iran's oil supply raised rather than the suggestion of plopping a few thousand marines in the Gulf...
Along with the carrier group in Red Sea (despite reports of fatigue and fire damage), doesn't look like a deal forthcoming.
But how long can Trump string people along with "just two more week"?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uss-gerald-ford-returns-to-mideast-as-3rd-american-aircraft-carrier-heads-to-region/

[soft moth]

Indian flagged tanker attacked by IRGC gun boats.

“Recording of a purported VHF radio message circulating in the industry a crew member says it is the Sanmar Herald” and “you gave me clearance to go, you are firing now, let me turn back”.

https://fxtwitter.com/SouthAsiaIndex/status/2045517373294379435

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/tanker-fired-on-by-iran-in-strait-of-hormuz

South Asia Index (@SouthAsiaIndex)

Breaking News:
︀︀
︀︀Audio of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald pleading with the Iranian Naval forces to stop shooting at it.
︀︀
︀︀◾ Earlier today, Iranian NAVY opened fire at the Indian oil tanker when it was trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

**💬 43 🔁 210 ❤️ 1.3K 👁️ 59.5K **

▶ Play video

FxTwitter · Apr 18, 2026, 2:58 PM

[soft moth]

Seems like things are heading towards escalation again with the upcoming ceasefire deadline.

From the Guardian: “A senior US official told Axios that unless there is a breakthrough in peace talks, it appears that the war could reopen within days.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/18/middle-east-crisis-live-iran-warns-it-will-close-strait-of-hormuz-if-us-blockade-continues

[fossil summit]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-military-prepares-to-board-iran-linked-ships-in-coming-days-officials-say-4dc0a718

archive: https://archive.is/sBYIA

[floral dawn]

Diplomatic cables show Iran war is damaging US on multiple fronts across the world
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/embassy-cables-detail-how-iran-war-is-hurting-the-us-abroad-00877205

Some highlights from the article

The cables, dated Wednesday, described the fallout of the war for America’s standing in three countries in different parts of the world: Bahrain, Azerbaijan and Indonesia.

U.S. diplomats at embassies in the countries’ capitals painted damning portraits of an America under siege in multiple media spheres by pro-Iranian actors that are exceptionally agile in the digital space.

U.S. embassies have been instructed not to create original content about the Iran war to share publicly and instead are largely limited to reposting approved messaging from the White House or the State Department headquarters online, according to a U.S. diplomat and other documents obtained by POLITICO.

[carmine hollow]

Yes, deleted

[shadow vortex]

Still no sign Trump is serious about negotiations and is still demanding ultimatums.
https://x.com/i/status/2045853176390107245
https://x.com/i/status/2045860693363011889

Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl)

President Trump just told me Vance will not be going to Islamabad. He said the issue is security — the Secret Service couldn’t do it on 24 hours notice.

“It’s only because of security,” he told me. “JD’s great.”

X · Apr 19, 2026, 1:13 PM

Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene)

The White House tells CNN that VP Vance is traveling to Pakistan for talks, in addition to Witkoff & Kushner, despite POTUS saying Vance wasn’t attending

As for Trump’s comments this morning saying Vance wasn’t making the trip, a White House official told CNN: “Things changed”

X · Apr 19, 2026, 1:42 PM

Could possibly be out of concern that there would be an Iranian no-show, which would be embarassing for an admin that argues Iran was begging for a deal
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-currently-has-no-decision-send-negotiating-delegation-pakistan-tasnim-2026-04-19/

[serene walrus]

https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3mju3xvbqg22g

Apparently there is a shift on that?

Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)

Iranian sources told CNN:
• Our delegation will arrive on Tuesday
• We expect that the following day a joint statement will be issued announcing the extension of the ceasefire

Bluesky · Apr 19, 2026, 1:51 PM

[fossil summit]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/19/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-hormuz

[fossil summit]

I’m trying to find this on CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/19/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-hormuz?post-id=cmo5sc17f000f3b6rrha6uvv3

[serene walrus]

Buried in the text about iranian media not confirming delegation, theres this quore

CNN cannot verify the information reported by Fars, but a little earlier, Iranian sources told us an Iranian team would arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday

[fossil summit]

The second link I sent has that earlier report from 2.5 hours ago

[serene walrus]

Ah

[shadow vortex]

Very interesting report. Following up personally to see if it's true.
https://x.com/i/status/2045840900434067477

Mohamed Amersi (@moamersi)

@Alihashem Check my interview in South China Morning Post. I was in Antalya. My assessment is it’s on a knife edge: Witkoff/Kushner will be in Pak on Tuesday. Possibly Vance too. A 5 page MOU could be inked later in the week in the presence of Trump, MBS, Al Thani and Pezeshkian.

X · Apr 19, 2026, 12:24 PM

[fossil summit]

if i understand correctly, Pezeshkian doesn't have power over the IRGC and can't make decisions for them?
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891479

[shadow vortex]

He doesn't need power over them. Just because he will go to sign the deal does not mean the deal was his to agree to.

[weary escarp]

Aljazeera still states that Iran doesn't plan to go: https://aje.news/w7b54q?update=4505711

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/CMShehbaz/status/2045931011746476130
This comes after Iranian source said they believe that the talks are a pretext and Pakistan is trying to convince them otherwise.

Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz)

I had a warm and constructive conversation with President Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian this evening on the evolving regional situation.

I appreciated Iran’s engagement, including its high-level delegation to Islamabad for the historic talks, and recent discussions with Field Marshal

X · Apr 19, 2026, 6:22 PM

Probably concluded (as anyone with eyes would) that the purpose of ceasefire was indeed (like the Gaza and Hezb model of 'ceasefires') the US/Israel trying to have their cake and eat it. Iran stops escalating while they salami-slice their own escalation.

[balmy trail]

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2045799320604041516?s=20

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: The U.S. Army has changed position of its Patriot PAC-3 SAM battery and THAAD anti-ballistic missile battery in Jordan. Chinese sources have leaked its new location and have published its high resolution satellite image to enable the IRGC Aerospace Force to once again

X · Apr 19, 2026, 9:39 AM

[void roost]

https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37927

Any evidence of this having happened?

[weary escarp]

It is stuck in the Gulf of Oman as of right now, no new satellite updates for a while though: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:58.9/centery:22.5/zoom:6

[timid jungle]

Initial vessel details are consistent with the TOUSKA (IMO 9328900), however a positive identification has not yet been established. Further corroboration is required before this can be treated as a confirmed match.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:657791/zoom:10
https://www.opensanctions.org/entities/NK-ZsumyqPuwgrSwo4DMZzyh2/

Last AIS broadcast over 6 hours ago, status NUC

[timid jungle]

If TOUSKA (IMO 9328900) is the VOI, its Equasis folder has its owner/manager as:

• RAHBARAN OMID DARYA SHIP MGMT
• MOSAKHAR DARYA SHIPPING CO (registered owner)

Both based in Tehran.

[balmy trail]

Screenshot of the headline NY Times are running regarding this

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/19/world/iran-us-war-trump-hormuz

Here’s Al Jazeera’s reporting

https://aje.news/w7b54q?update=4506182

[shadow vortex]

There were single US military cargo flights to UAE and Qatar recently. Interceptors or antidrone systems from US and Europe to US allies?
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2045964714849472943?s=20

MenchOsint (@MenchOsint)

✈️ US Air Force C-5M Heavy Cargo from Nevatim Air Base 🇮🇱 to Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE 🇦🇪

X · Apr 19, 2026, 8:36 PM

[waxen rock]

updated now to say that CENTCOM has confirmed it captured the touska

[near grail]

and the CENTCOM publication:
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4464037/us-forces-disable-vessel-attempting-to-enter-iranian-port-violate-blockade/

[timid jungle]

From the announcement:

After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period**, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room. Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room**. U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.

[near grail]

and CENTCOM posted footage of the warnings & shots on Twitter: https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2045969284690788615

[fossil summit]

Iranian Army: U.S. Violated Truce by Firing at Ship, Drones Attacked U.S. Ships

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-20/ty-article-live/idf-says-it-killed-terrorist-who-crossed-into-israel-held-lebanon/0000019d-a79c-d4a9-adff-b7ddf1420004

[timid jungle]

CENTCOM releases video of TOUSKA boarding

https://fixupx.com/CENTCOM/status/2046085543348293851/en

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM)

U.S. Marines depart amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) by helicopter and transit over the Arabian Sea to board and seize M/V Touska. The Marines rappelled onto the Iranian-flagged vessel, April 19, after guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) disabled Touska’s propulsion when the commercial ship failed to comply with repeated warnings from U.S. forces over a six-hour period.

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FixupX · Apr 20, 2026, 4:36 AM

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/i/status/2046159530619474422

Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr)

Iran basically wants the U.S. to remove the blockade off Hormuz. PAKISTANI SECURITY SOURCE: PAKISTAN ARMY CHIEF MUNIR SPOKE TO TRUMP, TOLD HIM HORMUZ BLOCKADE IS HURDLE TO TALKS

PAKISTANI SECURITY SOURCE: TRUMP TOLD MUNIR HE WOULD CONSIDER HIS ADVICE

X · Apr 20, 2026, 9:30 AM

[shadow vortex]

Journalist close to Netanyahu says he believes Israel prefers "no war, no peace" dynamic we have now.
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2045916539631845783

Amit Segal (@AmitSegal)

This is the outline currently under discussion between the United States and Iran. I am sharing this with caution, as it hasn’t been agreed upon yet, but based on recent developments, these are the points they have been discussing:
︀︀
︀︀A 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment. The United States originally demanded 20 years, while the Iranians wanted much less; they eventually settled on 15. The plan includes converting uranium into fuel, which changes its physical state and makes it harder to re-enrich. While not a simple process, this means the uranium won't necessarily leave Iran, which is a major concern for Israel. Full inspection of nuclear sites and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are, of course, a given. The deal would also include ending the war, the withdrawal of American forces from the Gulf, and the lifting of economic sanctions.
︀︀
︀︀It must be said that, aside from the uranium, the lifting of sanctions is what worries Israel the most. As…

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 19, 2026, 5:24 PM

[weak pike]

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/19/united-arab-emirates-iran-civilian-infrastructure-00880064

"UAE official: More than 90% of Iran's targets were civilian infrastructure.
The minister of state said Iran had hit the United Arab Emirates with over 2,800 missiles and drones since the start of the war."

[void roost]

https://on.wsj.com/4cFSzIR

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hegseths-feud-with-army-secretary-spills-into-public-view-ee2e5687?mod=Threads

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is occurring in the midst of unprecedented military commitments around the world.

[fossil summit]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vance-has-not-yet-left-iran-talks-pakistan-source-says-2026-04-20/

[shadow vortex]

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156966/At-least-26-Iranian-shadow-fleet-vessels-bypass-US-blockade

Very strange. Most of article is behind a paywall. Does anyone know if the US singling out Iranian shipments to China? Or is blockade really about interdicting weapons?

[soft moth]

Don’t know if this means anything in terms of Iran deescalating, “Iran's airspace will be reopened in four phases, according to the country’s aviation authority.”

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-set-to-reopen-airspace-in-4-stages/3911117

[weak pike]

https://news.usni.org/2026/04/20/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-april-20-2026

[fossil summit]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cly90l3ln30t
Tehran’s main international airports, Imam Khomeini and Mehrabad, have been given permission to operate passenger flights again starting today, according to the country’s Civil Aviation Organisation.

[cunning ledge]

Looks like there's only one source on this
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/trump-blocked-accessing-nuclear-codes-37045513

[fossil summit]

“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats,” Parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf wrote early Tuesday morning in Tehran in a social media post on X.

He accused the United States of wanting Iran to surrender and said that on the contrary, Iran has been preparing “to reveal new cards on the battlefield.”

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-20-2026#0000019d-aca0-df6c-a3bd-bfeb2c7f0000

[serene walrus]

https://x.com/polymarket/status/2046323018637439401

any idea what the heck polymarket is talking about? I cannot figure it out or find anything else mentioning that

Polymarket (@Polymarket)

JUST IN: Trump invokes war powers to channel federal funding into coal, LNG, oil, and grid infrastructure.

X · Apr 20, 2026, 8:20 PM

[fossil summit]

Apparently was first reported by Bloomberg (this article seems to be republished)

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trump-defense-production-act

[serene walrus]

yeah reuters specifies it's a memorandums, which aren't particularly forceful: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-cites-defense-production-act-call-expansion-domestic-petroleum-production-2026-04-20/

Found the memorandum: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/presidential-determination-pursuant-to-section-303-of-the-defense-production-act-of-1950-as-amended-on-development-manufacturing-and-deployment-of-large-scale-energy-and-energy-related-inf/

[floral dawn]

Driven by the pressures of war, Iran gives its field commanders more power over militias in Iraq
https://apnews.com/article/iraq-militias-iran-war-c2fce96e2769bc8b3be43a729da5517b

[soft moth]

Seems to correlate with this “Saudi Arabia summons Iraq’s envoy over drone attacks from Iraqi territory”

https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2026/04/12/saudi-arabia-summons-iraq-s-envoy-over-drone-attacks-from-iraqi-territory

[fading elm]

https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3mjyut4zwv22z

Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)

DoW- Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Apr 21, 2026, 11:27 AM

[cunning ledge]

https://fixupx.com/i/status/2046490777313071368

First Squawk (@FirstSquawk)

OIL MARKETS ONE MONTH AWAY FROM TANK BOTTOMS: GUNVOR'S LASSERRE

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FixupX · Apr 21, 2026, 7:26 AM

[waxen rock]

where did frederic lassere say this? can we see the context?

[proven igloo]

Also started looking, found this: https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/oil-prices-scale-supply-hit-analysts

"Frederic Lasserre, head of analysis at trader Gunvor Group, said if the war persists for another month, oil markets will hit tank bottoms — a phrase that means markets run out of stockpiles."

[timid jungle]

Primary source:

https://fixupx.com/DeptofWar/status/2046544038812156177/en

The VOI appears to be TIFANI (IMO: 9273337)
Last AIS broadcast: 5.3097 87.7917

Sketchy Boats Listing

Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar)

Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.

As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate.

International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.

**💬 465 🔁 2.2K ❤️ 11.0K 👁️ 596.9K **

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FixupX · Apr 21, 2026, 10:58 AM

This interdiction offers a useful check on estimates of how many dark fleet tankers are successfully evading the blockade - as it did with sanctioned tankers in Venezuela, the US Navy has shown it can reach them when and where it wants to.

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/baqirsajjad/status/2046522678836949005?s=20

Baqir Sajjad (@baqirsajjad)

Progress is reportedly happening on the backchannel and it’s increasingly likely that an Iranian delegation will participate in the talks. Not sure if talks preconditions would be met. Media is too eager to make headlines, but these complex diplomatic matters move slowly.

X · Apr 21, 2026, 9:33 AM

[timid jungle]

On the M/T TIFANI interdiction #1473081625775706295 message and the DoW's language:

They could have led with the lack of valid flag state registration. They could have mentioned something about enforcement of the blockade. They didn't.

Instead, the US Department of Defense went with:

> International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels.

In effect, they low key claimed a broader rule (that they made up), and then applied it to a case where they happened to also have narrower justification (no flag state registration).

That low key asserts OFAC designation status as a standalone basis for high seas interdiction. That has no grounding in UNCLOS (and at least here the US is not asserting law of armed conflict framing).

Worth noting: The TIFANI has no current flag state registration....but it's not a ghost ship. Equasis lists active commercial management in Mumbai and a registered owner in Suriname. Someone is responsible for this vessel.

[timid jungle]

To give a sense of the implications of the DoW statement:

OFAC designation is an administrative act with limited judicial review. The US is now potentially using that administrative act as a trigger for military enforcement action in international waters against vessels with third-country ownership.

[fading elm]

I think you are too narrowly viewing these statements.

"As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate.

International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels."

UNCLOS isn't thrown to the wayside, but the laws of naval warfare are controlling when we are at war (international armed conflict). Under the Commander's Handbook and the Newport Manual this isn't a new made up broader rule or something pulled out of thin air. This is by the book seizure of a neutral merchant vessel that has been declared as providing material support (ie contraband), and thus acting as an enemy merchant ship. The Newport Manual 3.9.2; 8.6.5; 9.6.2.

[timid jungle]

Lloyd's List free-to-read article and Tanker Tracker's on the TIFANI interdiction:

Satellite imagery shows Tifani loaded oil from Iran’s Kharg Island earlier this month, though it left the Middle East Gulf before the US enforced its blockade.
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156979/US-boards-sanctioned-tanker-in-Indian-Ocean

https://fixupx.com/TankerTrackers/status/2046617260228227379/en

TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers)

Since June 2020, TIFANI (9273337) has exported ~34 million barrels of crude oil out of Iran. In addition to that, she has also received at least ~24 million barrels via STS transfers in Southeast Asia for delivery to China. She was finally placed under US sanctions last summer.

Quoting Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar)
︀
Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.

As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate.

International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.

**🔁 7 ❤️ 24 👁️ 4.6K **

▶ Play video

FixupX · Apr 21, 2026, 3:49 PM

[fossil summit]

The ceasefire will end at 4:50 a.m. Pakistani time on Wednesday, according to Tarar, which would be 7:50 p.m. Tuesday night in Washington, D.C. However, the exact time seems to be under some debate, as President Trump said the ceasefire would end "Wednesday evening Washington time" in an interview on Monday.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-trump-ceasefire-pakistan-peace-talks-ultimatum/

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/i/status/2046632941338730549

Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79)

Foreign Ministry spokesperson, @IRIMFA_SPOX: Tehran has no plans to go to Islamabad at the moment

🔸 The reason for is the contradictory messages, contradictory behaviors, and unacceptable actions of the American side.

▶ Play video

X · Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM

[fading elm]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/21/world/iran-us-war-trump-news/vances-trip-to-islamabad-on-hold-as-iran-fails-to-respond-to-us-terms?smid=url-share

[shadow vortex]

Prominent Iran scholar's read of the situation:
https://x.com/AliVaez/status/2046646009434869956
I wonder if this reaffirms the idea that the US wanted Iran to open back up to talks to give it an out, but Trump is trapped by the prospect of a deal that is embarassing to him and admits an Iranian advantage in the field.

Ali Vaez (@AliVaez)

Nope! Everyone in the Iranian system agrees that there is no point in negotiating if the U.S. continues its blockade…

X · Apr 21, 2026, 5:43 PM

[fossil summit]

https://xcancel.com/Azadeh_Moshiri/status/2046634205124448517#m
BBCNews South Asia Correspondent:

The latest we're hearing...Iran's delegation was ready to come to the negotiating table but "everything changed" the moment the United States fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, an Iranian source has told us. This attack in the Gulf of Oman came just days before a second round of peace talks was expected in Islamabad. The White House may have thought it would add pressure on Iranians at the negotiating table, but instead neither delegation is in Islamabad and Iran's military has vowed to retaliate. Even before this episode, weeks of war and brute force did not yield the immediate political and military concessions the United States had expected. In a social media post, Pakistan's information minister has now acknowledged mediators are still trying to convince Iran to participate in a second round of talks. After days of wondering whether both delegations will fly to Islamabad, it's now clear the future of peace talks is up in the air. More on our BBC live page.

[shadow vortex]

AJ corresponding saying that US DoD and Department of State teams were waiting in Islamabad for the Iranians to come talk. But Iran seems to want to wait until the last hour to get US to lift blockade.

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/2046674943748755531

jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill)

🚨Iranian official tells me that as of this moment (3:38PM ET), Iran won't attend a new round of talks. Official says Pakistan told Iran that Trump will lift the naval blockade in final hours of the ceasefire. If that happens & ceasefire extended, new talks could happen Thursday.

X · Apr 21, 2026, 7:38 PM

https://x.com/FarnoushAmiri/status/2046664164525949437

Farnoush Amiri (@FarnoushAmiri)

👀NEW: Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's UN envoy, tells reporters Tuesday afternoon that the U.S. has privately indicated to Iranians that it would soon lift its blockade, which is a demand Tehran has made for returning to the negotiations in Islamabad.

X · Apr 21, 2026, 6:55 PM

And of course a good reminder: https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/2046680914348970008

jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill)

Given that the US twice attacked Iran while claiming to be negotiating, we can never rule out that the US and Israel resume the war against Iran, even if talks are scheduled. This is what happened in June 2025 and Feb 2026.

X · Apr 21, 2026, 8:02 PM

[carmine hollow]

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/04/21/crypto-scammers-offer-safe-passage-through-hormuz-at-least-one-ship-may-have-been-conned

[shadow vortex]

PHEW
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116444507618729432

[fossil summit]

for those who don't want to click: https://www.trumpstruth.org/statuses/37961

Noting that he's saying this right after market close at 4:09 PM EST.

[shadow vortex]

Trump's statement gives Iran no hard deadline for a proposal..." This decision sort of leads to the dynamic Amit Segal implied the Netanyahu government is hoping for, no war, no peace, just accumulating pressure and room to breath and strategize.

[serene walrus]

probably hoping for warlordism in Iran?

[night haven]

And room for Iran to rearm via China (Trump has said Xi promised not to but I've seen no verification of this from China and I have seen the reports that China is supporting Iran)

[waxen rock]

there are other possible motivations, such as the domestic unpopularity of the war. we can only speculate.

[shadow vortex]

The purpose of the blockade is to pressure Iran at the negotiating table. US is on a clock to resolve the crisis and reopen Hormuz. So they imposed a parallel pressure on Iran. Iran says it will not negotiate under those circumstances. So this may turn into a waiting game. I was told by a Qatar university expert that both sides understand that going back to the bombing would be much more destructive this time around and likely uncontrolled escalation that neither side wants. But if Iran views the blockade as more damsging than bombing, it might be the one to initiate attacks this time.

[fossil summit]

Advisor to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf says Trump’s ceasefire extension “makes no sense,” calling it an attempt to buy time for a surprise attack and claiming Iran “currently holds the initiative” as tensions escalate.

https://xcancel.com/MeidasTouch/status/2046701957755375884

[soft moth]

Honestly I started treating Trumps tweets as market manipulation.

• Deadline: Tuesday
• Deadline: Wednesday
• Deadline: until Tehran submits its proposal

Honestly should quarantine his posts.

[tiny path]

They are, technically, quarantined in #1330709161385922650

[balmy trail]

It appears Iran had a military parade in the streets of Tehran tonight, showing off a wide array of hardware.

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2046684883477733532?s=20

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1)

BREAKING: This video shows a Qadr intermediate-range ballistic missile of the IRGC Aerospace Force on display for supporters of the Islamic regime of Iran in the center of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, tonight. These are the last weapons that the Islamic regime has to display

▶ Play video

X · Apr 21, 2026, 8:17 PM

I’ve also seen several tweets stating the IRGC has essentially placed Qalibaf, Pezeshkian, and Araghchi under house arrest to disrupt negotiations. Anyone got any further info or corroboration on this? I understand the lack of reliable sources on the cesspool of X

[soft moth]

I’ve heard this speculation before, around 3 weeks ago. Interesting theory if you wanna read.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604015321

[balmy trail]

Amazing, thanks! I’ll check it out.

[night shuttle]

I'm piggybacking on bj's post here to emphasize that speculation on Trump's motivations, anyone's motivations, isn't what people come here to read. I can only moderate so many hours of the day so I don't jump in and course correct when many hours have passed since this sort of posting, but I'm considering doing so because the level of speculation about what Trump and governments are going to do and why is better suited for everywhere else on the internet.

Let's refocus on what's happening on the ground (or air, or sea, as it is)

[fossil summit]

To confirm, no posting of any government back and forth and just keeping to military movements? Not talking about speculation, but just what was stated, should that be kept out as well?

[balmy trail]

I think the X means Y talk when we literally have no idea what’s going on in his mind isnt helpful

[night shuttle]

It depends on the government official and what they're saying. Trump threatening something happening at 8 pm is concrete action and worth posting here.

A source speaking off the record about what's driving an 8 pm deadline is worth posting here.

An internet person who hasn't actually talked to anyone and is telling us why they think 8 pm is important, isn't worth posting here.

It's less about the who and instead, about if there's a direct line of connection to actual knowledge. I hope this helps.

[timid jungle]

UKMTO reports two attacks in the SoH:

043-26

A master of an outbound cargo ship reports having been fired upon and is now stopped
in the water. Crew are safe and accounted for. There is no reported damage to the
vessel.

041-26

The Master of a Container Ship reported that the vessel was approached by 1 IRGC gun boat, no VHF challenge that then fired upon the vessel which has caused heavy damage to the b

https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2046856177288405045/en
https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2046813177220895098/en

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO WARNING 043-26
︀︀
︀︀Click here to read the full warning⤵️
︀︀www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260422-ukmto_warning_043-26.pdf?rev=a91210ba75a54241b79ba283afa8312f
︀︀
︀︀#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec

**🔁 52 ❤️ 129 👁️ 85.0K **

FixupX · Apr 22, 2026, 7:38 AM

UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO)

UKMTO WARNING 041-26
︀︀
︀︀Click here to view the full Warning⤵️
︀︀www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260422-ukmto_warning_attack.pdf?rev=85f516057e214383a089fb298fe5987c
︀︀
︀︀#MaritimeSecurity #Marsec

**🔁 127 ❤️ 221 👁️ 179.8K **

FixupX · Apr 22, 2026, 4:47 AM

Of note: incident numbering skipped 042-26

Tasinm News reports that two vessels have been seized:

DeepL machine translation

The Revolutionary Guard Navy seized two offending ships and transferred them to the Iranian coast.

The IRGC Navy Command wrote: 
🔹Two offending vessels, “MSC-FRANCESCA” (linked to the Zionist regime) and “EPAMINODES,” which had endangered maritime security by navigating without the necessary permits and by manipulating their navigation systems, were seized by the IRGC Navy and escorted to the Iranian coast.

🔹Disruption of order and safety in the Strait of Hormuz is our red line.

@TasnimNews

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Source: https://t.me/Tasnimnews/409742

It's currently unknown if the UKMTO warnings are related to the vessels mentioned in the Tasim News report.

MSC FRANCESCA (IMO: 9401116) is a Panama flagged container ship

EPAMINONDAS (IMO: 9153862) is a Liberian flagged container ship.

The vessels are bout 1.7 nautical miles apart and approximately 8 nm from the Iranian coast.

Approximate coordinates: 26.5393, 56.9311

Note: Tasim's report of the vessels seizure should be treated as unverified.

[atomic belfry]

Just saw this https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3mk3c3krmcs2w

Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)

UKMTO WARNING 043-26

Bluesky · Apr 22, 2026, 10:29 AM

[timid jungle]

There's two attacks reported, sources at #1473081625775706295 message

Tasnim's report of seizing two vessels #1473081625775706295 message is in the vicinity of of UKMTO warning 043-26, but it is unknown if they're referring to the same vessels.

[atomic belfry]

Sorry for reposting, Discord didn't load all the posts

[timid jungle]

All good! You get a lifetime pass 🙂

Equasis records show:

• MSC Francesca's ship manager registered in Italy and ISM manager and registered owner registered in Switzerland.
• Epaminondas - owner/management is registereed in Greece.

[atomic belfry]

https://bsky.app/profile/vreij.bsky.social/post/3mk3cxcseas2l

Hans de Vreij (@vreij.bsky.social)

The current position of the container ships MSC Francesca and Epaminondas: anchored inside Iranian territorial waters after being attacked and impounded.

-# Eliot Higgins (@eliothiggins.bsky.social)
Reports that two vessels were fired on by Iran as they tried to exit the Strait of Hormuz early this morning. Reportedly the vessels are:
MSC FRANCESCA www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/detai...
EPAMINONDAS www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/detai...

Bluesky · Apr 22, 2026, 10:45 AM

I guess those fast attack ships were a threat after all.

[timid jungle]

NYT: group of US Senators press US Secretary of Defense on civillian harm incidents in Iran conflict, use of AI in kill chain:

https://fixupx.com/trbrtc/status/2046686782998159718/en

Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc)

A group of senators has called on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to answer questions about his execution of military operations against Iran, referencing four separate attacks that killed civilians, including Minab and Lamerd. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/democrats-criticism-hegseth-iran.html

**💬 3 🔁 41 ❤️ 100 👁️ 9.1K **

FixupX · Apr 21, 2026, 8:25 PM

[timid jungle]

WaPo reports USN destroyers are escorting two additional Iranian tankers

https://fixupx.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/2046903149881876681/en

• DORENA (IMO: 9569669) -last AIS broadcast was 17 April ~280 nautical miles off India's west coast.
• SEVIN (IMO: 9357353) - last AIS broadcast was a month ago in the Malacca Strait

Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky)

"Operations continued in earnest on Tuesday, with U.S. destroyers escorting at least two Iranian tankers, the Dorena and Sevin, that had departed from the Iranian port of Chabahar before the blockade commenced April 13."
︀︀
︀︀www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/21/iran-ship-seizure-blockade/

**💬 1 🔁 9 ❤️ 33 👁️ 1.6K **

FixupX · Apr 22, 2026, 10:45 AM

[shadow vortex]

https://x.com/i/status/2046891863085346846

Mehr News Agency (@MehrnewsCom)

Iran's IRGC Navy says it seized two vessels, MSC-FRANCESCA and EPAMINODES, for manipulating navigation systems and endangering safety in the Strait of Hormuz.

X · Apr 22, 2026, 10:00 AM

[golden ibex]

https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1301600/greek-owned-container-ship-reportedly-fired-upon-in-strait-of-hormuz-crew-safe/

[gusty bramble]

The vessel had reportedly been informed it had permission to transit the strait. However, authorities are examining the authenticity of the passage approval message, including whether it may have been fraudulent. <

[fossil summit]

Interesting. The Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald had said something similar. “You gave me clearance to go, now you are firing…”

[slender idol]

That would follow up with this story from Reuters posted on Monday.
#1473081625775706295 message

[slender idol]

With that said, reading this article from Bloomberg from April 1st detailing the whole process of traveling through the "tollbooth" and I can see why it is opportune for scammers:

Ship operators have to contact an intermediary company linked to the IRGC, and provide information about their vessel’s ownership, flag, the cargo manifest, destination, crew list, and data from its automated identification system, or AIS — a transponder that ships use to record and broadcast their position.

The intermediary passes the file onto the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command for background checks on the ship to make sure that it has no links to Israel or the US, or other states that Iran considers to be enemies.

If a vessel makes the cut then discussions over the toll begin. The people said that the Iranians have a ranking system of one to five for nations, with ships from countries that are seen as friendly more likely to get better terms. For oil tankers, the starting price in the negotiations is typically around $1 per barrel of oil, paid in yuan, or stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of hard currency.

A very large crude carrier, or VLCC, typically has a capacity of around 2 million barrels.
Once the toll is paid, the IRGC issues a permit code and route instructions. Ships are expected to raise the flag of the nation that negotiated the passage agreements, and in some instances, to change their official registration to that country. As it approaches the Strait of Hormuz, the ship broadcasts its passcode over its very high frequency radio, and is met by a patrol boat that escorts it through the passage, close to the coast between a group of islands that has already been dubbed “the Iranian tollbooth” by people in the industry.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/strait-of-hormuz-ships-paying-iran-yuan-and-crypto-tolls-for-safe-passage?taid=69cd4a0c061e480001087b93&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&embedded-checkout=true

https://archive.ph/20260404090248/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/strait-of-hormuz-ships-paying-iran-yuan-and-crypto-tolls-for-safe-passage#selection-2195.0-2219.544

[gusty bramble]

https://x.com/mhmiranusa/status/2046957671421551095

Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa)

Sentinel-2 satellite image today shows what looks like a flotilla of IRGCN fast attack crafts sailing north of strait of Hormuz near Kargan coast.
At least 33 boats can be seen in what looks like a show of force enforcing the strait closure by Iran.
Geo-location: 26.899,56.824

X · Apr 22, 2026, 2:21 PM

[remote cobalt]

HI Sutton says those are fishing vessels and normal https://bsky.app/profile/covertshores.bsky.social/post/3mk3tl4hytk2s

H I Sutton (@covertshores.bsky.social)

*OSINT alert*

1st image is from today, showing a 'swarm' of small boats at speed in Straits of Hormuz

This is typical behavour of Iranian fishing vessels in that area

Other 3 images from same area, same time of year but 2024 & 25 (dates at top)

First rule of #OSINT... know what normal looks like

Bluesky · Apr 22, 2026, 3:42 PM