🎾┃tennis-ambassador-lineups

[dapper shadow]

Some Monte Carlo action after some time away 🎾

-Matteo Arnaldi “‘more than” 21.5 games played ✅

-Alejandro Tabilo “more than” 16.5 fs ✅
-Karen Khachenov “more than” 23.0 games played✅

[dapper shadow]

Cash 5x ✅

[hollow pendant]

nice Sonny I tailed on Arnaldi with Ugo over TG, good slip

[dapper shadow]

Let’s keep it going.
Two 2 mans (Tues/Wed matches), also played a 4 man.

ADM “more than” 22.0 games played: ❌

Seb Korda “more than” 3.0 break points: ✅

Casper Ruud “less than” 22.0 games played:✅

Holger Rune “more than” 3.0 break points: ✅

[dapper shadow]

Stan was in fact, not the man. Will be moving towards tomorrow. Will likely be getting some Taco 🌮 pairs up as well. Will mix in some UFC 300 for those who don’t mind waiting.

[dapper shadow]

Oprah with BP lines to start the clay SZN. Who says the reigning king of Rome isn’t a clay specialist after all?

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https://tenor.com/view/daniil-medvedev-shake-your-booty-victory-dance-shake-your-body-down-to-the-ground-gif-6940004959515413496

[dapper shadow]

Med the clay specialist? Ruud also handles business. Will likely get the result of Rune tomorrow morning. Weather in Monte Carlo doesn’t look great. As is he currently has 2 BP’s while up a break in the 2nd set (2-1)

[hollow pendant]

nice little heater you're on, keep it going

[dapper shadow]

Much appreciated brudda 🙏🏽

[dapper shadow]

After a days delay, we finally get the 2nd entry through the hoop ✅. Solid start to the clay szn.

[dapper shadow]

Jannik Sinner 🦊“more than 📈” 3.0 bp’s: ❌

-Rune coming off of a 2 match day that saw him have nearly 5 hours of court time. Sinner is rolling and should pounce on any signs of fatigue

Novak Djokovic “more than 📈” 3.5 bp’s: ✅

-ADM has picked up some nice wins this week, but has never been a clay guy. Novak only improves as tournaments progress. Looking for him to take advantage of ADM’s serve and again orchestrate the crowd.

[hollow pendant]

like them both Sonny good luck bro

[dapper shadow]

Much appreciated brother 🙏🏽

[dapper shadow]

Unfortunate one here as Jannik goes 2/8 on bp chances. Will likely bring a close to Monte Carlo for me. Will see how lines are but will likely watch Semis/Finals purely from a fan pov. Will however be in chat to help out/answer any questions.
(Also feel free to hang out in MMA chat this weekend for the biggest MMA card ever, UFC 300)

[dapper shadow]

Posting a bit early as I will be out later today. Some Barcelona lines I’ll be having in play for tomorrow. BOL if you also play these lines. 🍂

Rafael Nadal “less than 📉” 20.5 games played: ✅
-The king of clay has been missing for quite some time unfortunately due to injuries that continue to plague him. He however, seems fit enough to make a return to the tour finally. He is a 12x champ in Barcelona and is accustomed to the conditions here. If truly healthy and fit, I like Rafa here. Fs line is a bit high, so I instead opt for games played.

RCB “less than 📉” 20.5 games played: ✅
-RCB is a much better clay court player than Hugo. He is also coming off of a nice stretch in Marrakech in which he was able to make it to the finals. I don’t see Hugo offering much resistance tomorrow.

[dapper shadow]

We doubled down because all we do is take brother ☝️

[dapper shadow]

One line I will be using a taco on. BOL if you agree and will also be playing this line with me 🍂

Rafael Nadal “more than 📈” 3.0 break points:

-It was good to see Rafa back on court especially during the clay season. In his return he was able to grit out a straight sets win. While he certainly had his moments, there were definitely times where Coboli’s inconsistency showed rather than “Rafa dominance”. Rafa’s serve looked extremely vulnerable so I do expect him to have to play a bit of catch-up tomorrow on return against an in-form and much more consistent (than Coboli) ADM. Line feels like a push at worst, especially with the possibility of going 3 sets. Idk who wins tomorrow so I opt to play break points.

[dapper shadow]

We’ll try for a double up.

[dapper shadow]

Bad read, especially after watching that Coboli / Nadal match. On to the next .

[dapper shadow]

We’ll try some Munich tomorrow. BOL if you play these lines tomorrow as well 🍂

-Alexander Zverev “more than 📈” 20.5 games played :

-Holger Rune “less than 📉 22.0 games played:

[dapper shadow]

This will not go through regardless of Rune / Huesler result. Zverev loses 6-4 6-4.

[dapper shadow]

Going again. Some Munich mixed with some Stuttgart. Let’s get back on track 🍂

-Taylor Fritz “more than 📈” 22.5 games played:

-Marketa Vondrousova “more than 📈” 17.5 fs:

[dapper shadow]

Let’s get back to it. Madrid 🇪🇸.

-Daniil Medvedev “more than 📈” 3.0 break points: Madrid plays a bit faster than usual clay courts with the altitude. Med has made known time again his distaste for the surface, but has started to sing a different song as of late. Up until 23’ he’d yet to have meaningful results in Madrid. He will have a bit of a challenge ahead of him in Arnaldi tomorrow as well. I expect this to be tighter than lines suggest with a possibility of seeing 3 sets. For this reason I opt for break points here.

-Iga Swiatek “less than📉” 17.5 games played: Until Iga plays the upper echelon on tour you have to like your chances at running Iga games. 6 games should be too much to ask of Cirstea especially after a near disaster against Eala yesterday.

BOL if you like the reasoning and will also be playing these lines🍂

[dapper shadow]

Going back to giving props and listing in order of confidence.

BOL if you will be playing any of these lines tomorrow as well 🍂. Lines are in order of confidence. Please note that I never recommend playing bumped lines 🚨.

(1) Taylor Fritz “more than” 22.5 games played: ❌
(2) Karen Khachanov “more than” 14.5 fantasy: ✅
(3) Aryna Sabalenka “less than” 19.0 games played: ✅
(4) Karen Khachanov “more than” 3.0 break points: ✅
(5) Novak Djokovic “less than” 19.5 games played:✅
(6) Nuno Borges “more than” 16.5 fantasy: ❌ 🪝 (16/16.5🙄)

[dapper shadow]

4/6 on props today. nuno hook absolutely brutal.

05/13/24 lines 🍂
-I’ve placed my likes for tomorrow’s props in order of confidence. BOL if you like any of these lines as well and will be playing them in your lineups.

(1) Clayomi Osaka “more than” 10.5 fantasy:❌
(2) Holger Rune “more than” 3.0 break points: 🅿️
(3) Tommy Paul “more than” 14.5 fantasy: ✅
(4) Iga Swiatek “less than” 16.5 games played:❌
(5) Daniil Medvedev “more than” 3.0 break points: ✅
(6) Alex De Minaur “less than” 16.0 fantasy:🅿️

Will try to get a reasoning connected to these soon. Please also note that i never recommended playing bumped lines.

https://tenor.com/view/naomi-osaka-fist-pump-tennis-wta-gif-20457936

[dapper shadow]

quite mid day. 2✅ 2🅿️ 2❌. wta were both bad reads. back to the lab.

[dapper shadow]

5/14/24 lines 🍂
-Small list but like both of these to cover.

(1) Hubert Hurkacz “more than” 21.0 fs: ✅
(2) Yannick Hanfmann “more than” 14.5 fs: ✅

[dapper shadow]

officially 2/2 on prop’s yesterday following Maximilian’s retirement✅.

[hollow pendant]

nice slip man, I wonder if Marterer just said f it and left the event due to the rain. Thats what it seemed like 🤣

[dapper shadow]

thinking of reincorporating POTD’s while making it a bit more engaging for the tennis community as well. here is what i’m thinking and please let me know your thoughts below.

I will be posting at minimum, 3 POTD’s per week. If 2 or more POTD’s turn 🛑 during the week, I will send $25 to a random person who tailed any of the props during that week (must be able to show proof). For over a year now i have witnessed much of the community say things like “ambassadors are employees”, or “ambassadors are here to take your money”. This way you can also see that not only am i losing money by also playing the prop with my own hard earned cash, but i am also losing money by giving away more in what would theoretically be a negative prop week for me. Please put a ✅ if you would like for me to incorporate this idea and please place a ❌ if you do not like like or feel like this is a needed addition for us in the tennis community.

Would likely begin incorporating at the beginning of June as i am currently handling things IRL. Please also @ me if you have any recommendations or additions that you think would play along nicely with POTD’s (no bank breakers, be LEGAL, be positive, etc.)

[dapper shadow]

Happy French Open 🇫🇷🥐 . Some likes i have for 05/27/24 are below in order of confidence. BOL if you also have any of these lines for tomorrow 🍂:

(1): Alexander Zverev “more than 📈” 24.0 fantasy score: ✅
(2) Jannik Sinner “more than📈” 5.0 break points won: 🅿️
(3) Denis Shapovalov “more than📈” 16.5 fantasy score: ✅
(4) Daniil Medvedev “more than📈” 4.5 breakpoints won: ✅
(5) Arthur Fils “more than📈” 15.5 fantasy score: ❌

[dapper shadow]

Solid turnout from props today. 3✅ 1🅿️ 1❌

[dapper shadow]

I will also begin with this next week.

[dapper shadow]

Some likes for 05/29/24 French Open 🇫🇷🥐. Props are in order of confidence below. Best of luck if you will be having any of these in play 🍂.

(1) Iga Swiatek “less than 📉” 1.0 aces: ✅
(2) Jannik Sinner “less than 📉” 29.5 games played: ✅
(3) Denis Shapovalov “more than 📈” 20.5 fantasy score: ✅
(4) Sebastian Korda “more than 📈” 5.0 break points won:✅
(5) Zizou Bergs “more than 📈” 4.5 break points won:✅

[hollow pendant]

good luck bro

[dapper shadow]

much appreciated brudda 🫡

[dapper shadow]

https://www.flashscore.com/tennis/

Is a good website to keep up with live scoring and updated match start times.

[dapper shadow]

Top 2 props turn green ✅. The rest of the matches have been rescheduled for tomorrow.

[hollow pendant]

Will join Sonny posting in here tonight

In order of confidence

-Marta Kostyuk Under 16 FS (Kostyuk has had her own case of the service yips lately, 11 aces 67 double faults on clay this season. She has to win 2-0 to cover)

-Anna Blinkova Under 1 Aces (Avanesyan is a wall, top 3 in ace rate with 15+ clay court matches. Played a 3 setter at Berlin on grass and Blink only got 1)

-Madison Keys Under 20.5 FS (Sherif can defend, Keys will have a negative ace/DF ratio)

-Novak Djokovic Over 6 BPW (Old man maybe washed but Baena can't do anything to hurt him, 5 BPW at AO 23 indoors)

-Elisabetta Cocciaretto Over 5 BPW (Why was this bumped down? These ladies will break each other back and forth all day)

-Aryna Sabalenka Over 18 TG (This my lowest conf level, but Uchijima is on fire and doesn't need to do much to cover this. Aryna has the tendnecy to play down to her comp. Montgomery, Volynets, Linette all got a set)

[dapper shadow]

We love to see it . A Shell post will definitely get in on some of these ✅ 🔥

[hollow pendant]

looks like a sweep brother nice job!

[dapper shadow]

Much appreciated brother. glad we got that one through the hoop Also appreciate your top 2✅. Cashed me out there.

[dapper shadow]

We finally get the results for these 5 props after a chaotic weather delay…✅✅✅✅✅. Cash 10x if you played the 5 man, and even more profit if you mixed and matched.

[dapper shadow]

If still in need of a team for the UFC 302 diamond 💎 promo. May ignore the other UFC prop, but am showing my entire team for transparency purposes:
🇪🇸 Alcaraz “less than 📉 3.0” aces: 🅿️
Night session and conditions should be slow/controlled. Also not the biggest fan of Alcaraz’s serve so a line like 3.0 feels like value, especially if he can close it out in straights.

[dapper shadow]

Result goes through on this one. Cash the promo team for 3x ✅✅

[dapper shadow]

No list, but will be putting some stock in this team early for tomorrow morning. Hopefully we can get it to go through and turn it into some coins for taco tuesday 🌮.

-Iga Swiatek “less than 📉” 0.5 1st set - aces (tennis live section)

-Chun Hsin Tseng “more than 📈” 16.5 fantasy score:

[dapper shadow]

Nice morning wake and cash ☀️✅✅

[dapper shadow]

Apologies for no taco pairs today, had a personal matter that I needed to handle.
Not a ton that I love as far as props for 06/05/24 so i’ll be posting a “favorite” play for tomorrow 🍂. BOL if you also will be using this line in your teams.

🇵🇭 Alexandra Eala “more than 📈” 4.5 break points won:❌

[hollow pendant]

my leans tomorrow

[dapper shadow]

Not sure how to describe what I watched here…Will just leave it at she went under❌.

[hollow pendant]

Desi Double my fav 2. Gotta keep riding Mirra till the final She made my year securing the quarter owe it to her ride one more time. Maya Joint impressed me today. I think the “Ginger Ninja” can win a set and AK ratios suck that’s all we need for her to stay under 18

[hollow pendant]

-Carlos/Sinner is the 2 best players on the planet, its square to take the over but sometimes u just don't over think it. This is going 4 or 5

-Desi Double Part 2, she sold us in mixed we will have our revenge when she gets at least 1 set against Coco/Siniakova

-Maya Joint has been a ATM all week, Martic has been a DF queen u do the math. She won't cover 16 if Joint wins a set

-Ruud smoked Zverev last year at RG, obviously that won't happen again here but I think he does win and make his 2nd str8 final. But he's well rested after getting the Novak freebie

[hollow pendant]

-Coco is the best doubles player in the world, this is her best partner also (Sorry Jess), they finish the title off with a 2-0 win over the Italian pair

-There are prolly 6 or 7 elite teams right now in mens doubles. Ram/Salisbury, Granollers/Zeballos, Bolelli/Vavassori, Gille/Vliegen, Bopanna/Ebden, Pavic/Arevalo. U wanna throw Dodig/Krajicek (they lost earlier in 3) in there thats 7. If any of the 6 or 7 are playing each other take over TG. It has gone 3 sets every time any of these squads have met in the French Open. Why stop now at the championship.

-Preston is another double fault queen that doesn't ace. She prolly ends on 0 aces in this match so for her to cover this 20.5 she would need to win 6-3 6-3 or something like that. Shinakova isn't good but on grass I think she can win 6 games

-Nakashima has been serving above his paygrade lately, he avg around 7 on grass has avg 12 this tournament. They played on a fast indoor court at the beginning of the year and Reidi rolled. I wouldn't be shocked if lightning struck twice again. If anything Reidi will win a set then you just hope Naka somes back down to earth with his aces, which is very possible.

[dapper shadow]

Some likes for 06/11/24. Small list as it’s my first day for the grass season. Let’s hope we can start off on a good note. BOL if you play any of these lines tomorrow 🍂🍃.

(1) Matteo Berrettini “more than 📈” 23.0 games played: ✅
(2) Lorenzo Mussetti “more than📈” 25.0 games played:✅
(3) Milo’s Raonic “more than📈” 15.5 aces: ❌

[hollow pendant]

-This is a high number but Cobolli is a mess on fast surfaces. Has played 2 grass matches and has gotten destroyed by 2 clay courters. Like imagine letting Nicolas Kicker smoke you on a grass court. He is 11-20 on indoor courts which some of them are faster than grass. Stuttgart ranks as the second fastest court on the calendar and Cobolli is going to be under fire. Struff will get DD aces for sure and will limit the double faults. Could see 6-4 6-3 with +4.5 ratio at a min for 25.5, but should be around 27-28 when this one is over. High number but great matchup!

-Elise Mertens is difficult to ace, Hertogenbosch plays a little slower than Stuttgart. Osaka has avg around 5.5 aces against Mertens, 9 is a tall order even on grass. Mertens is top 5 in ace against rate with at least 35 matches played. She is a lanky woman and can get her racket on alot of balls, even some nukes that would be aces against others.

-Dream return match for Emma at Nottingham. Playing a doubles specialist who won't be able to do much against her at all. Shibahara has been grinding on the ITF tour against awful comp and has had mixed results. Never faced anyone with the pedigree and talent that Emma has in singles. Emma is fresh, fit and ready to roll after taking the rest of the clay season off to focus on grass. This 2-0 out of the door for Emma

-Emina is basically a lady Isner, she serves nukes but gives up a lot of aces. She has a 8.7% ace against rate which for a woman is Sofia Kenin and Shaui Zheng levels of bad. She just played Tomljanovic on grass and gave up 8. Alja and Blinky have similar avgs on grass. Bliky is around 3.2 on the surface and in this type of matchup she easily be able to get 4 at a min to push.

Sonny/OverShell 6 man ❤️
Musetti MORE 25 TG (Sonny)
Berrettini MORE 23 TG (Sonny)
Raonic MORE 15.5 Aces (Sonny)
Struff MORE 25.5 FS (Me)
Blinkova MORE 4 Aces (Me)
Emma LESS 20.5 TG (Me)

[dapper shadow]

Got the top 2 through here✅✅. Unfortunate hook with Milos. A bit more competition from Thompson in either set and all 3 go through. Also thanks to Shell for Emma TG. Hopefully we can get Struff turned green.

[dapper shadow]

Was not a fan of the board initially, but we have some extra coins to spare from today. Very few breaks of serve in Stuttgart this morning. If you have a few coins to spare on a pretty solid lotto taco 4 man. BOL if you spin the slots with me on this one 🎰🍂

[dapper shadow]

This one will not be completed until Thursday, but investing a bit because I like Hamad and Bublik.

[hollow pendant]

2 man for tomorrow

-Karolina Pliskova MORE 7 Aces

As my man MellowBets says with MLB pitchers sometimes "buy low" on Pliskova aces tomorrow.

Only had 2 aces yesterday but that was to be expected

Ace Rate Against% Stats (Anything under 2 is great on WTA tour, anything about 5 is bad)
Parks 1.9%
Watson 5.6%

But its the same line at 7? I think Watson will hang around more than Parks also giving Pliskova more chances to ace

-Donna Vekic MORE 19 FS

Donna's a little bit of grass court merchant. Last year Final at Berlin (Fastest court on the WTA tour), 3rd Round at Wimby where she lost to the champion. So she is comfy on this surface and loves when its fast. Greet Minnen has racked up must of her victories in qualifying and ITF events so her record is misleading. Minnen sports nearly a 5% ace against rate so I think Vekic will get her aces tomorrow and have a positive ratio. She was 1/3 against Korpastch but she is difficult to ace (2%) and therefore that wasn't shocking. Vekic could get this in 3 with enough aces, but I don't think it will be needed. 2-0 for Vukic tomorrow. Also bonus sportsbook pick, Donna a nice live dog to win this entire thing. +650 is worth a 0.5 unit

I also love Hamad/Bublik Over 23.5 TG but Sonny already posted that so I left it off

[dapper shadow]

Unfortunate ending to this ticket. A bit more competition from Hamad in the 1st set would have certainly done the trick.

[dapper shadow]

https://tenor.com/view/yungviral-gif-4082992603784601699

[dapper shadow]

Been tossing and turning all day. It’s personal. BMF sh**, poor mans nuke ticket 🍂🤫. CALLING ALL SERVE BOTS (+ Shapo) 🤖

https://tenor.com/view/servebot-tennis-serve-reilly-opelka-john-isner-gif-25169479

[hollow pendant]

Tennis 6/13

I like these 4 players MORE FS/Aces. I always hate when a capper just posts a list or something. Like this is prizepicks u need to see the actual slips. So I will try my best to provide decent pairs.

4 2 mans (1 unit each)
Nakashima MORE FS/Alexandrova MORE Aces
Nakashima MORE Aces/Milos MORE FS
Milos MORE Aces/Shelton MORE FS
Shelton MORE Aces/Alexandrova MORE FS

FS 4 man (1 unit)
Nakashima MORE 24 FS
Milos MORE 23 FS
Shelton MORE 22 FS
Alexandrova MORE 21 FS

Ace 4 man (1 unit)
Nakashima MORE 16 Aces
Milos MORE 21.5 Aces
Shelton MORE 16.5 Aces
Alexandrova MORE 7.5 Aces

as always only bet what u can afford, tennis is a marathon not a sprint!

[dapper shadow]

Shapo unable to come through. As Shell mentioned marathon, not a sprint. Don’t want to create unhealthy habits and will be taking some time from props to recoup. Will still certainly be around to answer questions and help in chat however🍂

[hollow pendant]

Tennis 6/14

Big Card tonight

2 units
Ekaterina Alexandrova Under 19.5 FS
Matteo Berrettini Over 15 Aces

1 unit
Jack Draper Over 24 TG
Matteo Berrettini Over 22.5 TG

1 unit
Naomi Osaka Over 20.5 TG
Jack Draper Over 14 Aces

1 unit
Ekaterina Alexandrova Over 22 TG
Tereza Mihalikova/Liv Nicholls Over 17 FS

1 unit
Jack Draper Over 14 Aces
Naomi Osaka Under 22 FS

1 unit
Jack Draper Over 5.5 Set 1 Aces
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Under 18.5 FS

1 unit
Jack Draper Over 5.5 Set 2 Aces
Dalma Galfi Over 14.5 FS

No 4 mans tonight, lets cash!

As always, BANKROLL MANAGEMENT!

I could miss every single on of these and I wouldn't care cause its 8% of my bankroll in play!

But I hope I don't cause I would be subject to alot of hate and u guys are mean 🙂

[hollow pendant]

Recap
Either +4 units or +7 unints depending on Alexandrova TG

Duck getting broke at 5-6 for the money was pretty sick but we move forword

Also nailed Bibi +330, Bibi +1.5 Sets +125 if u all tailed that

Was a great day overall, 3 aces and a service hold for a possible sweeep damn

Ending my week here on a high note, will be back on Sunday Night, talking Mondays Opening Round

GL if your playing this weekend!

[hollow pendant]

I like Tuesday better, but run this for 1 unit. Berlin TGs is going to be my focus this week. Fastest court on the WTA tour u will see some really high totals. This also one of the most stacked fields I have seen in a non major/1000 ladies event. Factor the quality of the matchups with the court speed and that equals MORE TG! Some of these Round 1 matches are crazy, they could easily be Quarterfinal matches at normal events. Manage your bankroll properly of course, take some of the units u are up and bet 1 unit to win 3x on this 2 man entry.

[hollow pendant]

Milos Under 23.5 FS
This is my guy, I love Milos always been a big fan of the missle, but the wrong man is favored here. Overreaction season with this line and projection. If Norrie didn't lose to some ITF player at a challenger he prolly didn't care about the line would have been flipped here. Norrie will be under fire, but Queens is a little slower than Halle so perhaps he can get a few more returns back into play. Norrie should play the bigger points better and make enough shots to beat Milos and keep this Under the massive number. I also question Milos' fitness playing back to back tournaments, he made the quarters last week played a ton of tennis for the first time in long time. Organizers did him no favors putting him on Monday's schedule either, def could be some home cooking for Norrie who should be well rested after losing early. Is he going to be at 100% here for a 2nd str8 week? At his age I don't think he will. +140 for Norrie ML offshore people as well

[hollow pendant]

-2 units today, bad day, will wear the L. Congrats to Milos for breaking the Ace record. Taking out my man Ivo. Ivo did 40+ twice tho Milos

[hollow pendant]

these are my 2 mans. 1 unit on each. 1 unit on the 4 man. Search my posts in the tennis chat for the reasoning I have been putting these over all night in there

[hollow pendant]

This is what I am running tomorrow

• Duckworth is one of the easiest players on tour to ace sitting at a whooping 12.5% ace against rate. Only Richard Gasquet is easier to ace on the ATP Tour. Halle is a top 5 court on the ATP calendar in terms of speed, its not as quick as Stuttgart but it's still fast. Hurkacz was +100 to lead the tour in aces so he gets a ton, I think he gets 25-30 if Duckworth can hang around.

-Parks gets a lot of hate he def hasn't been able to build upon that success she had at the back end of 2022 where she was winning all those indoor events. However she does do 1 thing well, that's defend aces. She ranks in the top 7 with at least 20+ matches in ace rate against. Todoni is a clay court merchant and she will get a negative ratio against Parks. So if she doesn't win 2-0 I think she will have a very difficult time covering a 16.5 number.

-I know Sabalenka owns Daria, we all know this and this is def a pick I could wake up and look like a idiot for posting. But 19.5 at Berlin with this field and this court speed is simply to good to pass up. Sabalenka hasn't played since Mirra stunned her at RG (+900 to win the quarter!) and could come out a little rusty in the opening set. You don't need alot to happen to cover a 19.5, Daria isn't some scrub either she can def hang around.

-S/O to Solomon for this pick he was on it first, but I like it. Marketa avg 3.5 aces on grass and faces Anna K who is above that magic 6% ace rate against that you love to see. Marketa got 6 in her opener against a player is pretty difficult to ace. Alize Cornet played Anna K on grass and got 7, yes that Cornet! Factor in the court speed and Marketa's tricky serve, I think this hits at 4 for the push and prolly 5 for the W

1 unit on the 4 man, bet what u can afford as always

[hollow pendant]

4 man loses, -1 unit. We move forward

[hollow pendant]

3 unit play here. These lines are just too high considering the ladies ace/DF ratio projections. Both of these imo are +1.5 Set Bets for Ons and Eala, I think both can win a set or even win outright tomorrow

[hollow pendant]

Grandma showed up today, I can't win a tiebreaker to win my life lately, glad Zhang didn't need one in that 3rd 😭

Rain pushed Coco to tomorrow so we get that in another slip

[hollow pendant]

2 Ls in a row lets see if we get off the operating table. Running 3 2 mans with a Coco fade as the benchmark for each lineup. Coco FS is a carry over from last night, reasoning above. Ons ML a good play too. Aryna draws Anna K sams reasoning as Marketa above. She gives up aces at a alarming clip. If Anna K doesn't get completely destroyed she will go over this number. Coco TG is at Berlin I have touting that all week will be sorry to see it go. If Ons doesn't win, she will keep it close and push it over 22. I am the Vice President of the Alex Zverev hater club, but Zverev is Hurk's daddy. I watched every second of that Hurk/Zverev match at the United Cup and that man sold my 5 unit play at +250. This is just a bad matchup for Hurk all around and will go over in most 3 set run outs too with aces. 3rd lineup, Coco won't break Ons 4 times at Berlin that will be very difficult and Arevalo/Pavic are prolly the best doubles team on the planet right now. They won Geneva, they won Roland Garros, first 2 at queens this team is on fire. Harry and Karen are two singles guys that found each other in the locker room a days before the tournament started. Good win over Bopanna/Ebden but this team they draw today is on another level. They may win the FO/Wimby double, which hasn't been done since the greatest pair of all time the Bryan bros did it in 2013. This feels like 2-0 Arevalo/Pavic here. Good Luck if u tail, 1 unit on each. Use your bankroll management

[hollow pendant]

Retirements got us on Coco, bad way to close out the week but we will be back. May sit out the lead up to Wimbledon get my futures board in order as well. Will be tough to top the French Open but we will try

[dapper shadow]

After some much needed time away, I will be implementing this at the start of Wimbledon. Again, there will be a minimum of 3 POTD’s (per week) posted. If 2 (or more) turn red 🔴 during that week, one random person who tailed one of the props and is able to show proof, will be given $25 to “compensate” for my mishap. BOL all and see you soon 🫡

[hollow pendant]

I will be doing this too so $25 to someone if 2 out of 3 POTDs go red? Is that how it works @dapper shadow

[dapper shadow]

That is correct! Let’s go Shell 🐚!

[hollow pendant]

POD is Ruud Under FS for the 2 out of 3 POTDs. So put that in your entries if u want to be eligible for the $25 at the end of the week. So hopefully I don't start 0-1. Kalinina and Auger are Tuesday if u want Monday only play the other 3. Aryna has that injury concern I think I could be wrong on it, but the books wouldn't have her as the favorite to win the event if it was serious imo. But remember if she retires its a L on PP

[dapper shadow]

My first official POTD for this series will be:
Ben Shelton “less than 📉” 2.5 break points won.

I see this match going something like Shelton vs Duckworth or Shelton vs Mpetshi Perricard . Lloyd definitely has the serve to make life difficult for Ben in his return games. BOL if you use this line in any of your teams, and remember, if 2 or more my POTD’s turn red 🔴 this week, I will give one random person(who has proof they tailed) $25.

[hollow pendant]

I am 0/1 will have my 2nd POD tonight

"Must have proof you played the picks" thats key

[hollow pendant]

POD #2 , Down 0-1 will see if I can rally from a set down here otherwise someone will hit the Cash App giveaway wheel. Must DM me proof u were on either play to get on the wheel, if u were on both plays u get two spots on the wheel so def DM both to me! If this pushes then its voided and we have to pick two more. This is going to be a great match, Matteo's best surface against Sinner's worst so a good chance for the upset. Sprinkle on the ML too. I think it goes 4 tight sets or 5 and hits 39. GL if tailing

[dapper shadow]

POTD #2 (Shelton match moved to 07-04-24):
Gio Mpetshi Perricard 🇫🇷“more than 📈” 39.0 fantasy score

-This number is a bit high at first glance, but a look at his ace line shows the magnitude of the weapons Gio possesses. He did however get upset in qualifying, but he righted the ship in his tightly contested match against Seb Korda. Yoshi’s game is like a candle 🕯️, it is only a question of the location of the surrounding environment. Tomorrow I expect Gio’s weapons to ice, dim, and put out Yoshi’s flame

https://tenor.com/view/survivor-cbs-sad-gif-5909471

[hollow pendant]

POD 1-1, going to a decider 🫡 Will post in here if play #3 is tonight

[hollow pendant]

no POD tonight officially. Will def have one Friday or Saturday. Will root Sonny on

[hollow pendant]

2-0 for Sonny well done sir

[dapper shadow]

POTD #3 (Keeping it rolling with Benny boy):
Ben Shelton “More than 📈” 41.5 games played

Two big hitting and crowd pleasing lefties going at it.. exciting. Shapo has been working his way back into form and is starting to look comfortable again on the grass (exclude him nearly blowing the 2-0 lead earlier today from memory). Ben, though not a natural on grass, has been able to grit his way through back to back 5 setters. Both of these players have an exceptional peak performance level, but also have moments where they combat with lapses of focus. I can certainly see a series of one capitalizing while the other is vulnerable and vice versa tomorrow. BOL if you use this one in any teams 🍂

[dapper shadow]

🚨 Outdoor Court play Suspended until further notice 🚨 (Rain is coming and for the rest of the day more than likely).

Centre Court and Court 1 are the only courts with roofs and will likely be the only matches played for the rest of the day. The Grass on those courts is Live and with an entire week to go (as well as more poorly forecasted weather), I doubt they move many (if any at all) matches indoors.

[dapper shadow]

POTD #4 (Risking it for the biscuit):

Emiil Ruusuvuori “Less than 📉” 12.0 / 11.5 fantasy score

I’m actually surprised we did not get Gio as the prop, but it makes things a bit simpler for scoring purposes. This line essentially is a “pick-em’s” and I am picking Gio to move into the 4th round of Wimbledon. It is 100% fact that Ruus will be a bigger challenge than Yoshi, but Mpetshi Perricard is playing some quality tennis. Again, yes, he had the hiccup against Janvier and took the LL route to Wimbledon, but he is in form and is a nightmare draw for everyone on his side. Ruus did play well against Stefanos yesterday, but his season has been filled with struggles to find form. Look for Mpetshi Perricard to once again utilize his freakish 6’8” weapons and enter the 4th round of Wimbledon tomorrow. The kid is simply born to play on grass. BOL if you use this line in any teams 🍂.

[hollow pendant]

Sometimes in sports your just better than your opponent, that is the case here. Fils is 2-0 lifetime against Roman, winning easily both times. Roman has had a cupcake draw to this point and Fils meanwhile has been under fire in each of his first two matches. Will be a nice break from the big servers like Stricker and Hurk he will actually be able to get his teeth some return games. Roman has been awful form coming into Wimbledon is prolly content with just making the 3rd round here. With Fils ace output he should be able to cover most of the wins. I think he wins 3-0 or 3-1 tho so it shouldn't matter

Good Luck if u tail, PODs are 1-1 this week so if this one chalks I will giveaway $25 ❤️

[hollow pendant]

Fils chalked sucks, but ML of course hit, sometimes thats the way it goes.

So Giving away 2 $25s cause I hit 4 units on the ML

Xblendz
CharMoney
iswizzle
TheDream19
conoli
Dr. Zeus
Stained
3vanthgr8
Devin
hahahah4920

-To enter, DM me a lineup that had Ruud Under FS against Bolt or Fils Over FS vs. Roman

-If u had both, DM both and get 2 spots on the wheel (You can't win both $25s)

-Must have Cashapp

-Will pull the names at 1:30 PM eastern tomorrow, 24 hours to DM me your slip to get on the wheel. I am not recording the wheel so u will just have to trust me

Above are the people that DMd so far, good luck. U must DM me within 24 hours of winning otherwise I will pull another name

-Send me a friend request I will accept it

[hollow pendant]

4-0 bro, hell of a week

[hollow pendant]

45 minutes till the wheel spin, will post the winners in here. the DM me to claim your prize

[hollow pendant]

Wheel Spin 1

@shadow rivet Winner

@raw creek Winner 2

24 hours to DM me or I will spin again

Thanks for playing and hopefully I will do better

[dapper shadow]

🫶🏽🕊️🍂

[dapper shadow]

Please do not just blindly tail, but take into account my reasoning for why i am putting these props into play. If they do not align with your thoughts, by all means, fade and go with your gut. If you end up putting these props into play after going through the reasoning and analyzing the props yourself, BOL and I hope we can cash ✅.

•Joa Fonseca “less than 📉” 9.5 aces: ❌

-Sonego is a diamond opal level wall (shoutout Shell 🐚 ) only allowing 0.3 aces per return game to his opponents. Expanding that data over a possible 5 set match (assuming Joao gets the atp tour avg of 25 service games) would land Fonseca around the 7-8 range. Slightly under, but again, this data is assuming Sonego hangs around with Fonseca for a few sets. We did see the kid blow Rublev off the court a few nights ago so hopefully he runs away with this one as well.

•Denis Shapovalov “less than 📉” 14.5 aces: ✅

-Musetti, though not on the level of a Sonego or Monfils, is worthy of perhaps a Platinum level wall card? (Would need Shells 🐚 approval on that lol). Musetti is allowing around 0.4 aces per return game to his opponents. Similar write up to Sonego/Fonseca, only Musetti is a level below on the wall status (imo(still does a good job at getting a racket on things)). Again, expanding these numbers over the atp grand slam avg of 25 service games, would land Shapo at or around the 11-12 ace range. Another slightly under, but I will trust the numbers and data here. This match however is one that could go the distance and cause us to sweat a bit.

• Holger Rune “more than 📈” 40.5 games played: ✅

-These two (excluding the embarrassing showing where matteo eventually retired in acapulco) have gone the distance in all of their meetings on HC. Although none of the meetings have been in Slams, the pair are very familiar with each others play styles. Matteo’s hammer of a serve and (assuming Rune isn’t trolling) Holgers baseline cleverness should allow us to again, see another entertaining matchup between the two. a few competitive sets mixed in with a tiebreak here and there should see this turn green in 4 sets, though i would enjoy a down the wire 5 setter on John Cain arena

•Daniil Medvedev “more than 📈” 5.0 breakpoints won: ✅

-Learner is definitely an american on the rise and one to keep watch of in the future. Unfortunately his cinderella run should come to an abrupt end here against the octopus. Medvedev survived a huge scare against Samrej, but i think it was exactly what his legs needed to work himself back into form. Medvedev is the Hardcourt specialist of all hard court specialist, and (assuming he continues his form from the last 2 sets) should make things extremely difficult for Tien. I like medvedev here to cover this line in 3 or 4 sets.

https://tenor.com/view/daniil-medvedev-hardcourts-specialist-hard-courts-hardcourt-gif-18053837099168223166

[dapper shadow]

Props given go 3 for 4. Not bad, but very unfortunate we do not get the sweep. Either needed someone to win in 4 or for Sonego to not give up a whopping 4 aces in that first set. Either way, we move.

[dapper shadow]

Please do not just blindly tail, but take into account my reasoning for why i am putting these props into play. If they do not align with your thoughts, by all means, fade and go with your gut. If you end up putting these props into play after going through the reasoning and analyzing the props yourself, BOL and I hope we can cash ✅.

-Naomi Osaka “more than📈” 16.0 fantasy score:

•Naomi showed a ton of grit and determination coming back to beat Karolina Muchova in the second round of the AO. She’s still working herself back into her grand slam champion form, but the subtle strides she’s been making on her return campaign look very promising. Bencic is someone who has caused problems for Naomi in the past, but she is still working back into form in her own right. This is a very good opportunity for Naomi to advance to the third round as she has had more matches to find herself and form as opposed to Bencic. This is essentially a “pick-ems” line with Osaka’s ace potential, and I will be backing her to win here and clear the 16.0 fantasy score line.

-Carlos Alcaraz “less than📉” 30.0 games played:

•The one thing that (in my opinion) continued to hinder Carlos from being dominant on hard courts was his lack of consistency on serve. He worked on his motion during the offseason and it’s paid off quite handsomely for him to start his 25’ campaign. He set a career high first serve percentage (89%) against Yoshi, and bolstered 14 aces in 3 relatively short sets. I am not high on (nor have i ever been for that matter) the portuguese player that will be standing across the net from him. A consistent Alcaraz (that does not drop his level) should have yet another quick day in the office. Carlos should be dictating every point of this match and will overwhelm Borges here. Look for Carlitos to assert himself early. A line like this is being a bit lenient and respectful of Borges, I have none of those for him in this matchup.

-Novak Djokovic “more than📈” 36.0 games played:

•Machac has had a very solid start to the season. Before cramping against Fritz at the United Cup, he was on the quite the roll and was on his way to a straight sets win against the American #1 . I like Machac here to compete and keep up with Novak. Djokovic has notably started slow in recent slams and has given up a set to each of his first two opponents. I think Machac is a much tougher test than both Faria and Nishesh. If Djokovic starts slow again here, Machac will certainly take advantage of the opportunity and make the most of it. I like the over games here as I do believe Machac is capable of taking at least a set off of Djokovic (has done so in all 2 of their meetings. granted, one was on clay). I do pick Novak to win, but look for Machac to go blow for blow here.

[dapper shadow]

0-3 .. extremely rough day on reads with yesterdays props.

[dapper shadow]

Please do not just blindly tail, but take into account my reasoning for why i am putting these props into play. If they do not align with your thoughts, by all means, fade and go with your gut. If you end up putting these props into play after going through the reasoning and analyzing the props yourself, BOL and I hope we can cash ✅

Christopher Eubanks “more than 📈” 16.5 fantasy score: ✅

Borna Coric “more than 📈” 15.0 fantasy score: ❌

•Small two-man and reasoning:
-In my eyes, these both are essentially “pick-ems” lines and I think they are both the better players in their matchups. I think Coric is the superior player in comparison to Lestienne whom I fade quite often. Also, Eubanks’ heavy serve (though montpellier is one of the slower IHC’s, it still has a relatively high ace %) should be the equalizer in his matchup. You could also opt for the “more than 📈” 23.0 games played there, but i like Eubanks’ ace potential which would allow him to cover if it just so happens to go 3 sets.

[dapper shadow]

Bu’s line is a little high to cover in 3, but Lestienne blows. I’ll either be an idiot fueled by rage or getting my get back. Cazaux also being backed by the home crowd, should play well enough to keep things close with FAA.

[dapper shadow]

✅✅. Able to get both through the hoop for the cash. Back on track

[dapper shadow]

Investing in this 5 man. Just setting and forgetting.

Please do not just blindly tail, but take into account my reasoning for why i am putting these props into play. If they do not align with your thoughts, by all means, fade and go with your gut. If you end up putting these props into play after going through the reasoning and analyzing the props yourself, BOL and I hope we can cash ✅

-Hurkacz “more than📈” 22.5 games played: ❌
•I think this can be a competitive matchup. Since he was signed to “On”, i’ve been a fan of watching Cobolli. He hasn’t had a great start to the season, but he does compete in all of his matches which bodes well for the over games here. Hurkacz has also had a bit of a shaky start to the season so i’m expecting a tight match here. Possibly a few tiebreaks or a 3 setter even.

Daniil Medvedev “more than📈” 3.0 break points won: ✅
•Line might seem a little high for IHC, but i just don’t think “Stan the man” is there physically anymore. Medvedev should be able to absorb everything that he has and grind him out in a pretty clean win. This is a good match for Medvedev to recollect himself and find his form following his shocking loss to Learner at the AO.

Carlos Alcaraz “less than 6.0📉” aces: ✅

•I am playing this line off the belief that it’s a bit high for Carlitos to cover even with his revamped serve. Also seeing Carlos bring out the nasal strip during hitting sessions in Rotterdam so a lot of speculation that he has a cold. Will be banking on him struggling with fitness here, but we will wait and see.

Holger Rune “less than📉” 5.0 aces: 🅿️(Tie)
•Re-occurring theme for me with these “diamond opal” walls. You all know the story, Sonego a solid catcher and should clean up
shop for us here. He did have the hiccup against Fonseca, allowing him to hit 10, but that match ran longer than initially expected and went all 5 sets.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard “more than📈” 25.5 games played: DNP (mpetshi withdrew due to illness)

•Those who know me, know i love me some Mpetshi Perricard. His only downside is he has absolutely no return game. Kovacevic has been playing some quality tennis and I expect there to be very little to no breaks in this matchup with multiple tiebreaks.

[dapper shadow]

Awaiting Mpetshi Perricard for 2x profit after the misread on Hurkacz games. Figured i’d double back and put it all on black with a taco. I never advise over exposing ones self to a particular prop, but i do like the line and figured it’d add a bit of cushion to my taco ticket. BOL!

[dapper shadow]

Final results from this end up being 2 ✅ 1 🅿️ tie 1 ❌, and 1 DNP.

[dapper shadow]

Bencic soars over fs but this (if played without taco) is refunded as Mpetshi perricard withdrew before his match due to illness.

[dapper shadow]

Small 2x bankroll builder. Noticed we got Jiri back on the board with a bumped bp line. BOL if you play this as well

[dapper shadow]

unfortunate hook 🪝. French boy gets broken to keep the match going at 4-5 and when we needed him most at 5-2.. will finish on 18 games

[dapper shadow]

Not a ton of time left in placing this one but really like it with the bump up from 3.5. apologies for the time away had some things to handle irl.

[dapper shadow]

Tennis likes mixed with some Fight night likes. Hoping for a solid Saturday

[dapper shadow]

little bit of a wait here, but i like this for a set and forget over the next two days.

[dapper shadow]

unfortunate FDA starts to cramp before the final set tiebreak starts.. Hamad with the legacy hold secured Stefanos under breakpoints though

[dapper shadow]

Recently moved and have been adjusting to a new work schedule so apologies for being away for so long. Excited to get back swinging just before we hit clay season. Just trying to make contact in the box here, no home run swings just yet. Pretty straightforward trio.

-FAA “more than 📈” 17.0 fantasy score: ❌
I like this price for Felix here. It seems quite reasonable to me. Lorenzo dominates the matchup on clay, but Felix has the edge on HC to me. Prior to his hiccup against Brooksby(just an awkward player to play against in general), he’d been putting together a sneakily impressive year thus far. This number also gives Felix a bit of a cushion to cover in 3 with ace potential (if needed) as Lorenzo gave up (obviously different serves, motions, speeds, etc.) 17 aces to Halys .

-Elina Svitolina “less than 📉” 10.5 fantasy score: ❌
Love Elina. Love Gael. Love mini baby Monfils. Saying all of that, Mrs. Svitolina loses tomorrow. Muchova is a TOUGH cookie 🍪 and is an absolute joy to watch play on the WTA side (except when she plays Naomi). Line is essentially a pick-em and I pick Karolina to win tomorrow. Pretty straight forward ya🤙🏽.

Iga Swiatek “less than 📉”: ❌
Again we’re looking to make contact here, no home runs. No “sneaky plays” or “hidden gems”. Iga wagon. No disrespect to Elise, but when Iga is priced here i feel inclined to bite. Similar story as Muchova,.. Swiateks a TOUGH cookie 🍪 and plays impressively clean/sharp tennis. Will be looking for a quick afternoon in the office.

[dapper shadow]

horrible day yesterday. have 0.5u here looking to recoup from my losses. like the push potential on Machac and Fils beats Tiafoe

[dapper shadow]

✅✅ back on track. Fils clutches up and the big guy only loses serve once

[dapper shadow]

Trusting the walls on this one. More confident in Monfils than I am Musetti so only 0.25u here.

[dapper shadow]

✅✅ Monfils clutches and Lorenzo only allows 1 ace in a pretty quick match.

[dapper shadow]

Bit of a wait here—I didn’t want to force a pair for Novak, so I just combined it with a play I like from the Mexico City UFC card on Saturday.

• Novak (23 FS vs. Korda): I wasn’t excited about the initial line at 22, but 23 FS against Sebi Korda, who’s been picking up solid wins and has shown he can hang with Novak? I’m in. He may not win, but I don’t expect this to be a one-sided match (that Adelaide final was cinema).

• Gautier/Medina Fight Time: I’ll post my reasoning in MMA chat tonight—assuming Sebi puts up a fight against Novak.

[dapper shadow]

hate annoying beats, korda blows the set while serving for it and proceeds to lose the tb. we move. likely all the miami action i’ll get. will be moving to ufc mexico for the weekend

[dapper shadow]

Welcoming back Clay SZN 🧱 . Let’s start off on the right foot. Hanfmann handles business and Galan doesn’t touch 6. 0.25U

[dapper shadow]

redoing with taco 🌮 . Hanfmann DNP’d

[dapper shadow]

Order of Plays for Thursday, April 3rd

[dapper shadow]

Order of plays for Friday, April 4th 🎾 . Happy Friday

[dapper shadow]

High risk High reward 4 man power play ill be investing in for UFC 314. Can also add “Paddy the Baddy” discount to make it a 5 man.

[dapper shadow]

https://x.com/estorilopen/status/1916877136608055414?s=46

Millennium #EstorilOpen (@EstorilOpen) on X

Good afternoon,
Considering the context, we were forced by the authorities to declare today's session closed (matches will continue behind closed doors).

We appreciate your understanding and hope that tomorrow the and the country can wake up to the normality we all wish for.

X · Apr 28, 2025, 3:28 PM

https://x.com/josemorgado/status/1916863692890636712?s=46

José Morgado (@josemorgado) on X

Play is CANCELLED for the day in Madrid.

Wow.

X · Apr 28, 2025, 2:34 PM

With Questions arising, some updates from Madrid and Estroil.

[dapper shadow]

Updated Order of Play for Madrid Tuesday, April 29th

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP Rome Masters. Wednesday, May 7th Order of Play:

[dapper shadow]

Essentially “pick-ems” lines and I pick both to win. Expect Comesana to cross the line but also to be much tighter. Best of luck, let’s start Rome hot 🇮🇹.

[dapper shadow]

🚨Play is currently suspended on MANY courts due to rain at the moment. Please be aware 🚨

7:15amEST (last update)

Tarps going on courts. Play will be suspended for a while. Will continue to update as they are released from Rome. Please be patient with your entries in this time and understand that there are NO DNP’s in Tennis for weather (especially a tournament as such), it will be waited out and resumed when possible.

[dapper shadow]

🚨 UPDATE: NO PLAY BEFORE 2:15pm local time (30minutes from now / 8:15amEST , 5:15amPST). Rain has stopped though so hopefully we return to play soon.

[dapper shadow]

🚨 Center Court has players returning for play. Still awaiting the return of:

Thompson vs Perricard

Lehecka vs Muller

Hijikata vs Moutet

Ugo Carabelli vs Carreno Busta

Taberner vs Kovacevic

WTA matches not before 2:30pm local time (30 minutes / 8:30amEST, 5:30amPST)

Gracheva vs Tomljanovic

Dolehide vs Gadecki

[dapper shadow]

🚨 Players back on all the courts besides the court where Gracheva vs Tomljanovic are playing on. 🚨

It will be another 10 minute wait there due to the court still being wet.

[dapper shadow]

Comesana ✅ Thompson ❌… Annoying, Thompson will go under (15 fantasy) . Ace/Df and games won ratio just off for
him..

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP Rome Masters. Thursday, May 8th Order of Play:

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP Rome Masters. Friday, May 9th, Order of Play:

[dapper shadow]

Heavy rain in rome

Lorenzo Musetti vs Daniil Medvedev suspended on match point for Musetti at 5-4 (40-30).

Hubert Hurkacz vs Jakuk Mensik also suspended at 3-2 (40-15) in the final set. Play will resume once weather permits

[dapper shadow]

Courts getting ready at the Rome 1000.

Play should resume in 5-10 mins or so, if rain holds up.

[dapper shadow]

Order of play for the day

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP Rome Masters. Thursday, May 15th, Order of Play:

[dapper shadow]

•Hailey Baptiste “more than” 📈 14.0 Fantasy Score:

-Hailey’s had a quietly strong 2025 season and continues to trend upward with more composure and confidence in her shot-making. She faces Gracheva, an aggressive but inconsistent player who’s prone to stretches of unforced errors, especially under pressure. There is upside here as this line is clearable in a clean 3-setter

•Tommy Paul “more than” 📈 23.0 Total Games Played:

-This QF vs Hubert Hurkacz has all the ingredients of a battle: Tommy’s consistent return game vs Hubert’s serve-heavy style. Hubert seems to be regaining form after injury struggles, and both guys have looked dialed in this week. Unless someone gets broken twice early (unlikely), we’re probably looking at tiebreak potential or a 3-set grind.. great recipe for the over.

Please do not just blindly tail, but take into account my reasoning for why i am putting these props into play. If they do not align with your thoughts, by all means, fade and go with your gut. If you end up putting these props into play after going through the reasoning and analyzing the props yourself, BOL and I hope we can cash ✅

[dapper shadow]

Paul / Hurk end 7-6, 6-3 with 1 break in the 2nd set being the difference… baptiste up a double break in the 2nd set has a complete meltdown..

[dapper shadow]

•Weekend Rome Masters 1000 + UFC Vegas 106 (Burns vs Morales) — 4-Man Slip•

• Amanda Anisimova “more than” 📈 2.5 Double Faults

-She’s been generous and stacking them on clay. No night’s rest or pre-match meal saving that serve in the next 24 hours.

• Carlos Alcaraz “more than” 📈 21.5 Total Games

-Typically lean Carlitos all the way in this matchup (and still do), but Lorenzo’s recent form + the home crowd make this spicy. Alcaraz took their last meeting in Monte Carlo, but assuming Musetti’s body holds up, we should get some popcorn here.

• Melquizael Costa “more than” 📈 1.0 Takedowns

-I like this spot for Melk. Safe push floor with sneaky upside. His wrestling isn’t elite, but I can see him mixing in a shot or two to set up his BJJ. Once he secures the takedown, we clock out.

• Rodolfo Bellato “more than” 📈 32.5 Significant Strikes

-Craig = damage sponge. Bellato lands at volume (around 6 sig strikes/min), if this gets to Round 2 we’re sailing 🚤.

WTA/ATP Rome Masters. Friday, May 16th, Order of Play:

[dapper shadow]

Love me some Mpetshi Perricard, even if he can’t love me back. Light play though since it’s challengers.

Schevchenko struggles against big servers, which plays right into Gio’s strengths. If the first serve is landing and he’s dialed in on the +1, this should be Gio’s match to take. Could be tight.. his return game’s basically nonexistent but we ride.

Carlitos break point gobbie moving like Michael Porter Jr 1HPRA (IYKYK).

[dapper shadow]

Update on our 4-pick entry:

Tennis props turn green ✅

Will be sweating Costa and Bellato in the UFC chat tomorrow, pull up if you’re riding!

Might drop more plays depending on lines, but next tennis action likely comes from Hamburg/Geneva. Let’s finish this ✅.

[dapper shadow]

Will have a reasoning for Carrot boy / Carlitos Saturday night once the UFC card has finished. Best of luck on plays today everyone 🎾🥊

[dapper shadow]

Bellato DNP’d on PrizePicks: Bellato OUT with a medical issue, per UFCVegas106 broadcast.

Appreciate everyone who’s been vibing with me —this weekend. Job Finished ✅ , congrats to those who were able to lock this in and ride with me.

[dapper shadow]

Posting for now but might have something special soon.

[dapper shadow]

•full-circle moments and a transparent community

I’ll be bringing back POTDs for Roland Garros next week, but before we get there — I want to make things right with the folks who rode with me this week.

If you tailed the Sinner/Monteiro play that missed, please drop a reaction on the post (I’ll make it obvious), and send me a screenshot as proof. You’ll be entered in a transparent and random $25 giveaway.

I’m also running a second $25 drawing for anyone who tails tomorrow’s play:
• Jannik Sinner “more than” 22.5 total games
• Gio Perricard “more than” 23.5 total games

If it doesn’t hit, we’ll repeat the same process for a second random and transparent giveaway.

You can’t win both — but if you tailed both, you’ll be eligible for both drawings.

All I ask? Drop a reaction to let me know if this is something you’d like to see continue.

I’m doing this as an effort to be transparent — not to profit off the community, but to build and win with it.

You bleed, I bleed. Let’s ride.
—Sonny

Thoughts?

✅: bring back POTD’s along with $money giveaways for missed props

❌: Not reading all that, i’m good.

🎉 Random $25 Giveaway Entry 🎉
-Tailed? Please drop a reaction to be entered into the $25 giveaway. Please send me a screenshot of proof. I mean.. i don’t need to see your name, but like it has to be believable .. be for real.

Let’s Ride🩶
-Sonny 우주🚀

[dapper shadow]

I’m out at the moment (church, will catch highlights later), but it looks like Jannik completely checked out of the match in the second set. First set went as expected — tight, 7-6. But the second? No clue yet… will have to watch and figure out what happened to carrot boy.

So… yeah — looks like two $25 giveaways are officially happening.

Please leave a reaction on the screenshotted ticket I’ll post soon only if you tailed me (and can provide proof!) — that’ll enter you into the second giveaway.

Remember:
• You can be entered into both drawings
• But no one can win both.

We move.
— 우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

Please drop a reaction on this post to be entered in the drawing.
I’ll notify everyone well before the giveaway is run.

Apologies for the miss today. Unless Hamburg or Geneva props really pop, we’ll likely just gear up fully for Roland Garros.
-우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

-Jiri Lehecka “more than 📈” 16.5 Fantasy Score:

• Jiri’s baseline game is built around a heavy, flat forehand that keeps opponents pinned deep. Against Gojo, who lacks defensive mobility, that’s a major edge.

• His aggressive first-strike style leads to quick holds and relentless pressure on return games. A fit Lehecka should control this matchup.

• Brandon Nakashima “more than 📈” 20.5 Total Games Played:

• Brandon plays a composed, serve-first style with steady baseline exchanges.

• He’s faced Collignon before and while it ended in straights, the match was tighter than the score shows.

• Most of his success has come at the Challenger level, but Collignon shows strong clay instincts — using heavy topspin, consistent depth, and a willingness to grind through extended rallies.

• With Brandon’s current form, im expecting a competitive start. I like the gobbie value for bankroll building at 2.5x

— Sonny 우주 🌕

[dapper shadow]

🚨 Please drop your reactions (if eligible) by 12:00 PM PST / 3:00 PM EST Monday, May 19th 🚨

This helps me stay organized and makes sure everyone gets counted fairly.

[dapper shadow]

Orders of play for Geneva and Hamburg Monday, May 19th

NB: “Not Before”

[dapper shadow]

Early update on this..

Collignon was maintaining well and had multiple chances to close the set, even holding set points at 5–4. But just as we looked headed for a breaker, he retired due to a blister on his right (serving) thumb 🤦🏽‍♂️…

No excuses — that’s the risk we take with any match. But it’s unfortunate to see him pull the plug right before serving to force the tiebreak. Momentum was still up for grabs.

We regroup and move forward. Jiri still alive, but this tickets over with.

— Sonny 우주 🌕

[dapper shadow]

Update on the $25 Drawings

Appreciate everyone who participated and sent in screenshots for the Jannik/Thiago and Sinner/Gio plays — just wanted to let y’all know that both $25 drawings are now officially closed.

I’ve already got the list of names locked in and will get everything sorted after I wrap up my boxing class (visualizing the heavy bags as Collignon for motivation). Winners will be announced soon. Will update on format for the drawing.

Thanks again for riding with me. more to come soon.
—Sonny 우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

🚨$50 Drawing (2 $25)🚨

Alright — since Thiago decided to get slept and Jannik caught butterflies in the second set of his home soil final, I’ll be keeping my word and giving out $50🥲.

To keep things transparent, I’ll be doing the giveaway live on my TikTok stream (connected to my discord).

Time: 7:00pm PST / 10:00pm EST Tuesday, May 20th — should work well across both coasts once people are off work or settling in.

(If there’s a better time that works for more folks, feel free to drop suggestions.)

-Sonny우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

high-upside 2.5x Power Play with gobbies to build up the loss bankroll. not a bad multiplier considering the soft lines. Just a light play from me in lieu of RG main draw. strict bankroll maintenance this week.

Alexander Bublik “more than 📈” 22.5 total games played:

• Hamburg, is a quicker clay. favors Bublik’s big first serve and touch-based net game.
• Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has a massive serve but lacks the return skills to create breaks consistently, especially on slower surfaces.
•stylistic matchup leans towards a tight battle with potential tiebreaks.

Giulio Zeppieri “more than 📈” 20.5 Total Games:

• Zeppieri is a lefty clay-court grinder with a heavy topspin forehand that will naturally target Choinski’s weaker backhand side.
• Choinski tends to struggle in baseline rallies and extended points, especially on clay, where Zeppieri thrives.
•Choinski prefers quick exchanges and can flatten out his forehand to rush opponents. Against lefties like Zeppieri, this can be a useful tool to avoid being pinned on his backhand. matchup has the ingredients to be competitive.

[dapper shadow]

Tuesday, May 20th: Geneva / Hamburg orders of play

[dapper shadow]

Geneva still delayed a bit, courts being prepped. Hopefully we get some action on centre court here soon.

[dapper shadow]

Giveaway time - (shooting for 7:30pmPST / 10:30pm EST, my apologies for the pushback) .
I’ll be doing the giveaway drawing on tiktok live— (click my profile, scroll down)

[dapper shadow]

Recap

[dapper shadow]

About to run the giveaway drawing live in a moment—
apologies again for the pushback earlier.
Streaming it on TikTok (@sonny.woojoo) if anyone wants to pull up and watch it go down.

[dapper shadow]

Congratulations @round thunder and @normal hare for winning the two $25 drawings!
I’ll be reaching out directly, so please check your DMs to claim your prize.

Appreciate everyone who tapped in .. hopefully we keep things profitable so giveaways like this can be fun extras, not necessary ones.

[dapper shadow]

For transparency purposes- both winners have been contacted:
@round thunder @normal hare.

Please check your DMs when you get a chance!

[dapper shadow]

Wednesday, May 22nd Order of Play for Geneva / Hamburg:

[dapper shadow]

Roland-Garros Qualies Update

[dapper shadow]

Rain Delay Update – Geneva Open
As of now, the following matches are currently suspended due to rain:
•Matteo Arnaldi vs Fabian Marozsan: 6-3, 0-1
•Arthur Rinderknech vs Hubert Hurkacz
•Paul/Stricker vs Behar/Vliegen: 2-3
•Arevalo-Gonzalez/Pavic vs Frantzen/Erler: 3-1, 15-40

Will keep you posted the moment court crews give the green light.

[dapper shadow]

Geneva Update:

Hurkacz and Rinderknech have resumed play. Expect other courts to follow shortly once cleared by officials.

[dapper shadow]

Roland-Garros Thursday, May 22nd Order of Play

[dapper shadow]

Thursday, May 22nd Order of plays for:
-Geneva/Hamburg
-Strasbourg/Rabat

[dapper shadow]

High upside 3.5x (no demons) 2-man bankroll builder. (We are managing for RG)

•Karen Khachanov “More than 📈” 2.5 Break Points Won:

-Karen’s return metrics and shot tolerance should trouble Ofner, who’s historically vulnerable to pressure off his second serve. With Karen’s heavy forehand and strong backhand exchanges from the ad side, the Austrian’s predictability and limited variety should open up at least 3 legit break chances — especially on clay, where Karen’s heavier ball bites deeper and gives him time to lock in return positioning. Big edge in experience and form.

•Camila Osorio “More than” 📈 5.5 Break Points Won:

-Camila is a nightmare for passive servers which is exactly what she’s getting in Maria Mateas. The American’s serve sits up and lacks pace. Camila’s break points are usually volume based and when her legs are fresh like they are now, she creates 6+ chances in matches like this (recent-Rakhimova, Azarenka, Arango). Watching her last match against Kami — good form.

-Sonny우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

•Geneva Morning Update — Play Suspended: 🌧️☔️

-Rain has halted play on Court Central. Singles will not resume until the current doubles match (REB/DOU vs AND/ARR) is completed — score stands at 6-2, *4-4.

[dapper shadow]

Will go ahead and drop this before Karen’s result comes in.
Camila will hook under on her 5.5 line (5/5.5) — went 1/3 on chances in the 1st set (had 15 chances total), and sometimes that’s just how the pendulum swings. A bit frustrating, especially since I was deciding between this and her fantasy.

As we head into the later rounds and approach Grand Slam #2 of 2025, this will likely mark the end of my lineup releases for the week. Value gets tighter as the draws narrow.

For Roland-Garros, I’ll be shifting toward POTD-focused releases (as mentioned earlier). These will drop at least 3x per week (with breakdowns and analysis), and if 2+ props turn red ❌, I’ll do a $25 drawing for a randomly selected tailer (you also played the prop) who lost — just send proof like the previous time.

Will still be posting Order of Plays, tournament/match updates, and other helpful resources in here.

[dapper shadow]

Roland-Garros Friday, May 23rd Order of Play

Friday, May 23rd Order of plays for:
-Geneva/Hamburg
-Strasbourg/Rabat

[dapper shadow]

🚨Roland-Garros Qualifier Props Update🚨:

[dapper shadow]

Resolved

[dapper shadow]

Saturday, May 24th Order Of Plays For:
-Geneva
-Hamburg
-Rabat
-Strasbourg

[dapper shadow]

❓Why are Fantasy Scores So High❓

[dapper shadow]

•Jannik Sinner “More Than” 📈 30.5 fantasy score:

-May have locked Jannik too early , can get him at 30.0 at the moment. Carota boy enters Roland-Garros on fresh legs following his first loss of the season in Rome to Carlitos. His opponent, Arthur Rinderknech, has struggled to hold form on clay — and no amount of French crowd energy can override the structural weaknesses in his baseline game. I’m backing Sinner early off the belief that his efficient style will allow him to convert early breaks, have a low double fault count, and remain in control of tempo throughout the match. If this stays in rhythm, 30.5 fantasy is reachable in three tight sets. Would need help (aces / games) in 4.

•Novak Djokovic “more than” 📈 2.5 breakpoints won:

-Novak Djokovic, plays the Geneva final against Hubert Hurkacz tomorrow. It’s a matchup that Novak should control stylistically. Hubies serve will keep him afloat early, but his rally tolerance remains poor against top-tier returners like Djokovic.

Tomas Machac “more than” 📈 38.5 Total Games:

-Halys has the serve. Machac has the hands. Neither has overwhelming firepower.
If we get the back and forth baseline exchanges we so often see on clay, this one should run long. Four sets feels realistic. Five wouldn’t surprise me.

[dapper shadow]

❓Why Are Game Lines So High❓

[dapper shadow]

Roland-Garros Sunday, May 25th Order of Play:

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s Slate: Roland Garros – Sunday, May 25 Rankings

1. Jannik Sinner – “More Than” 📈 30.0 Fantasy Score: ❌

•Sonny’s Grade: A+
•Why: Against Rinderknech, a clean 3-set win or light 4 is likely with ace upside and favorable game lines. Look for Carota boy to start hot 🥕.
• Projection: 3-set win with margin, 31.5-32 fantasy range

2. Tomas Machac – “More Than” 📈 38.5 Total Games: ❌

•Sonny’s Grade: A
•Why: This isn’t a blowout spot. Halys is strong enough on serve to extend, and Machac has shown he can hang in tight sets on clay.
•Projection: 4 sets, potential breaker

3. Francisco Cerundolo – “More Than” 📈 27.5 Fantasy Score: ❌

•Sonny’s Grade: B+
•Why: Diallo has upset potential and the kind of serve that can take the racket out of your hands, but Francisco should own the longer rallies where it matters most. The more consistent Cerundolo brother reminds everyone
•Projection: 4-set win, 29–31 fantasy.

4. Zizou Bergs – “More Than” 📈 41.0 Total Games: ✅

•Sonny’s Grade: B+
•Why: We all know by now Gio’s serve is legit and Bergs has clay legs. Four sets with multiple 7’s on the scoreboard? Yes?
•Projection: 4 or 5 tight sets, 42+ games

[dapper shadow]

As mentioned earlier, POTD’s are officially returning — but with a new format and purpose.

We’re shifting into something more refined: each Play of the Day (POTD) will now come paired with a Gobbie to form a full lineup called •Sonny’s Safety.
The idea is longevity and long term profitability.

Each Sonny’s Safety lineup will include:
•1 POTD
•1 green Goblin (high floor) prop
•Full transparency with ROI and record tracked weekly

I’ll start modestly at $25 entries and scale over time as the record builds — long-term profitability > short-term homers

[dapper shadow]

Official Sonny’s 사니야 Safety:

POTD:
Jannik Sinner – “More Than” 📈 30.0 Fantasy Score:

Goblin Pair:
Zizou Bergs – “More Than” 📈 34.5 Total Games:

$25 to start. Stakes will scale naturally as we build.

Reasoning for both above

[dapper shadow]

🚨🌧️ Roland Garros Weather Update 🌧️🚨

-I will be at church from 9:30amEST, but will do my best to update when applicable.

-All play resumed and underway (9:15amEST)

[dapper shadow]

The Humble Prince aims to make it look easy tomorrow 😎🦊
•1st official POTD. 1st official Sonny’s Safety.

We begin the Roland-Garros climb with Jannik Sinner.

(Please remember the rules of Sonny Safety’s. minimum 3 per week. if 2 ❌, one random tailer will be given $25 of my own money.)

[dapper shadow]

Roland-Garros, Monday May 26th Order of Play

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety Recap:
Jannik Sinner – “More Than” 30.0 Fantasy Score ❌

Sinner will likely take the win, but we fall short on fantasy. Ace count never got rolling and Arthur kept it close enough to prevent the scoreline margin we needed.

It’s a miss — and we wear it.

0–1 to start RG. We reset tomorrow with Beatriz .
-Sonny’s 사니야 🌕

[dapper shadow]

Official Sonny’s 사니야 Safety May 26th:

🇧🇷POTD: Beatriz Haddad Maia — “More Than” 📈 4.5 Break Points Won

Goblin Pair: Amanda Anisimova — “More Than” 📈 4.5 Double Faults

Record: 0-1 | ROI: -100%
Transparency + Trust = Longevity.

🚨Remember, if 2 or more turn ❌, I will do a $25 giveaway (exclusive to PrizePicks Discord members only)

[dapper shadow]

Why?

• Hailey Baptiste’s 2nd Serve Vulnerability:
  •Her 48% 2nd serve win rate on clay in 2025 ranks outside the top 100 and makes her highly exploitable for a grinding returner like Bea.
  •Unless she lands >65% first serves, she’s going to give Bea looks.
  •In 8 of her last 9 matches against players with 60% 2nd serve win rates or lower, Bea has gone over 5+ break points won.

-Sonny우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 3 – Full Order of Play (May 27):
•I’ll be watching for weather/match status updates.

[dapper shadow]

Updated Sonny’s 사니야 Shortlist -Clay Ace Unders

1. Laslo Djere – less than 4.5 Aces: ✅
2. Alycia Parks – less than 3.5 Aces: ❌
3. Andrey Rublev – less than 7.5 Aces: ❌
4. Mattia Belluci - less than 5.5 Aces: ❌
5. Jack Draper - less than 7.5 Aces: ❌

🚨 These are just leans — not official plays.
Only Sonny’s Safety is in play for me today. Sharing for those riding the clay court edge.

[dapper shadow]

Final Result:

Beatriz Haddad Maia — Over 4.5 Break Points Won ❌

A brutal one. The read was there — Hailey’s second serve was vulnerable, and the looks came early. But Bea couldn’t convert enough in the key moments.

Record: 0–2 | ROI: -100%
Transparency and trust always come first.

As promised, I’ll honor the $25 giveaway this weekend.
Please react to this message and DM proof of you tailing either lineup in its entirety (POTD + Goblin).
This giveaway is for those who trusted the full Sonny’s Safety pair — not just the surface play.

Sonny’s Safety is still new, but it will bounce back.
This isn’t about quick hits — it’s about building a long-term, profitable system.

[dapper shadow]

Small addition - have added Mattia Bellucci less than 5.5 aces to the shortlist. Paris conditions shouldn’t be kind to his flat serve.

Small update (10:05am EST):
Have also added Jack Draper — less than 7.5 Aces to the shortlist alongside Bellucci.

Paris conditions + recent form point to limited ace upside here.

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 4 – Full Order of Play (Wednesday, May 28th):
•I’ll be watching for weather/match status updates.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety May 28th:

🇺🇸 POTD: Danielle Collins — “More than” 📈 3.5 Aces:
-10, 10, and 9 in 3 of her last 5 (3 in a one-sided 6-4, 6-2 loss) good power on clay + a favorable matchup vs Olga who doesn’t block well.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — “More than” 📈 33.5 Total Games Played:
-Dzumhur might grind, but Gio’s serve-heavy style has me lean towards a 4-set or tight 3-tiebreak scenario. Cleanest goblin on the board for me.

We’re not forcing plays.
We’re building brick by brick.

Record: 0–2
ROI: –100%
Transparency + Trust = Longevity.

🚨 If either prop misses and you tailed the lineup in its entirety, you’ll be entered into a $25 giveaway this weekend — exclusively for PrizePicks Discord members who fully tailed any Sonny’s Safety this week.

🎟️ Tailed Safety #1 or #2? You’ll receive bonus entries for your loyalty, just DM proof.

You trusted me. I give back to you.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️Delay Update🌧️

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 시니야 Safety #3 Recap

Pair Hit: Gio sneaks over 33.5 total games after a gritty 4-setter. We’ll take that edge.

🇺🇸❌ POTD (Danielle Collins): Still active, but not trending well. Sitting on 0 aces, with a 47% first serve rate and 7 double faults. That wasn’t in the blueprint. At this point, a 3-set grind is likely her only path to a miracle cover.

Not every lineup will be clean and that’s the risk I accept every time I drop a Sonny’s Safety. It’s a new system, not a magic formula. But it is a commitment to purposeful DFS storytelling and long-term, transparent, community-first sustainability.

I understand if some are hesitant to ride with me after this stretch — but I’ll continue trusting the process.
-Sonny우주🌕

🎁 Giveaway Reminder: Please keep an eye out for updates. If you tailed #1 through #3, DM me full proof for extra entries in the $25 drawing. You rode with me — I’ll ride for you. I don’t take your faith lightly.

React where applicable so that your entries may be properly accounted for. (DM proof please or you will not be counted)

I Tailed:

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #1

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #2

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #3

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 5 – Full Order of Play (Thursday, May 29th):

•I’ll be watching for weather/match status updates.

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 6 – Full Order of Play (Friday, May 30th):
(Doubles highlighted)

[dapper shadow]

Official Sonny’s 사니야 Safety May 30th:

🇺🇸 POTD: Tommy Paul — “Less Than” 📉 6.5 aces:

Pair: Jack Draper — “More Than” 📈 32.5 games played:

📊 Record: 0–3 | ROI: -100%
🩶Transparency + Trust = Longevity

🚨$25 drawing already being done this weekend for misses on Sonny’s Safety 1-3 (4 still pending)

If Sonny’s Safety #5 misses I’ll do an additional $25 drawing (1 for 1-4, 1 for 5) .
To be eligible you must tail the lineup in its entirety and DM proof (please @ me if you are unable to. I will find a way.) $ amount does not matter, your trust is more than enough. (exclusive to PrizePicks Discord members only)

[dapper shadow]

Long drawn out 5-setter gives Tommy just enough looks to clear the line..

0–4.

That’s the record. That’s the blunt truth. That’s the week it’s been.. But I’m still here.. still will be.

Sonny’s Safety was never about hot streaks or viral/flashy picks. It was built to be a system for people who want consistent and (results will come. feel free to fade for the foreseeable future) grounded plays with purpose.

Sonny’s Safety is far from over, and to anyone who’s still been watching, supporting, or walking with me through these plays? Thank you. The drawings are not because I owe it, but because I mean it when I say i value your trust. I believe in this system and will continue to put one foot infront of the next.

To Keep Moving Forward is the M.O.

What if we came back from 0–4? What if we made it to 4–4… 8–4… higher? That’s the story I’m fighting for.

Let’s find out together. Or not , either way i’m going to continue shooting and backing my research, data, and analysis.

-Sonny우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

🚨Update🚨

🎁 $50 Drawing (two $25)– Sonny’s Safety #1–5

To enter:
✅ Drop any emoji below (will make it clear)

✅ Bonus entries if you’ve tailed any of Sonny’s Safety #1–5 (1 additional per Sonny’s safety. DM proof or additional lineups will not be accounted for)

✅ Drawing will be held Saturday night after UFC 107 wraps

✅ You are only eligible if you played the lineup in its entirety. That’s POTD + Goblin pair. I want to reward the ones who fully trust me.

Thank you again for rocking with me through the launch phase. Win or lose I’ll be here. Still learning. Still building. Still pushing for signal (우주 🌕)

-Sonny우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

I’m adding on to these so please react where applicable so that you can be accounted for properly. I will stop the count Saturday, May 31st @ 12:00pmEST.

I Tailed:

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #4

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #5

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 7 – Full Order of Play (Saturday , May 31st):

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #6:
-This will mark the start of a new week of Sonny’s Safety lineups. #6-10will run from May 31st to June 7th.

🇮🇹POTD - Jannik Sinner “less than” 📉 28.0 fantasy score:

pair - Jack Draper “more than” 📈 32.5 games played:

📊Record: 0-4 | ROI: -100%
🩶Transparency + Trust = Longevity

Jiri smells it 🩸.. I feel it.

[dapper shadow]

way, way, way off.. updates will be below regarding sonny’s safety. giveaway information will also be posted today.

[dapper shadow]

Please fill in and react where applicable! I will be closing the drawing at 12:00pmEST Today (Saturday, May 31st)

[dapper shadow]

📣 Sonny’s Safety 사니야 Update + Giveaway Live Stream

Thank you to everyone who stuck with the Sonny’s 사니야 Safety campaign through its first 6 drops. The vision was clear and morale was high, but with the recent variance it’s become obvious that it’s time for a shift.

Tonight, after UFC Vegas 107 wraps, I’ll be going live to officially:

• Close out Sonny’s Safety
• Run the $25 + $25 giveaway draw live

We’ll start fresh tomorrow with the Sonny’s Solid List campaign for June.

Note: Stream is only to promote transparency. You do not have to attend/join to win
⏰ Stream Time: ~11:00 PM EST (post-UFC)

Have a blessed day 🙏🏽
-우주

[dapper shadow]

https://tenor.com/view/its-over-over-say-less-say-no-more-gif-14585938

I have my list. Winners will be selected tonight.

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 8 – Full Order of Play (Sunday , June 1st)

[dapper shadow]

🎁 Giveaway Update:
-prayers up for Maycee Barber on the MMA side.. scary stuff. 🙏 I’ll be doing the Sonny’s Safety drawing shortly, just getting everything set up on my end now. Appreciate everyone who tailed and rode with me through the week.

[dapper shadow]

Alright, proceeding. account connected to discord. attendance not needed to win, just to promote transparency through this process.

[dapper shadow]

🎁 Congratulations to @visual spire and @tough dome for winning the two $25 drawings. I will reach to each of you individually to get you your money.

[dapper shadow]

🎁 Recap for transparency. Thank you to everyone who rode with me this week. Attached are both winner clips + entry screenshots so everything’s in the open.

[dapper shadow]

📣 FORMAT UPDATE — Sonny System 2.0 📣

Sonny’s 시니야 Safety – My flagship. 2-pick plays with full confidence. (1 potd + 1 goblin. I put these in play, you’ll know it.)
Includes a cinematic edit + a giveaway (if the lineup misses). Only dropping these 1–2x a week max. I will no longer force value to fit a numerical quota.

🩳 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts:
Typically 3–5 props a day, only if value’s there. Good enough value to mix and match, but not enough to claim as a POTD. Some days may have no post. Don’t squint for value that isnt there. I won’t always play every prop listed as well. They will be ranked with explanations.

📊 Sonny’s Reflection – Weekly graphic showing what hit/missed across Safety + Shorts to stay transparent and build trust within the community.

Updated ROI. Feel free to fade me until i right the ship.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #7 for June 1st- June 7th:

POTD🇬🇪 - Merab Dvalishvili “more than” 📈 5.5 takedowns:

Pair - Jannik Sinner “more than” 📈 5.5 break points won:

🚨Agin, with the update to the system, Sonny’s Safety will be released 1-2x per week max aimed at finding true “love” spots (that i feel connect analytically, statistically, and emotionally. hints the cinematic edit inclusion.) It fits the M-O of what i’m wanting to build for Sonny’s Safety 사니야, a line that I feel extremely confident in. If the line loses, I will assess, but back myself for remaining true to only bringing attention to a line that I felt would go through with complete conviction. not “i think so”, but “im sure.”

-Please remember. If either Jannik or Merab turn ❌, i will do an immediate $25 giveaway for anyone who tailed the lineup in its entirety. This is not a volume system. It’s meant to win consistently, and hold me accountable through clarity, not chaos. Just one ❌ now. Not 2 or more. No longer.

-If you are looking for insight or breakdowns on daily props, check out Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳, which will contain (depending on board size and value) 3-5 props per day that I would recommend putting in play. These are for insight.. not all get played by me, but they’ll offer context for those who want to build off value.
For now, Sonny’s Safety is my main monetary play. It’s what I’m building my foundation on. God willing, we’ll be smiling looking at the ROI on this system at the end of 2025

-Sonny우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 8 – Full Order of Play (Monday , June 2nd)

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🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 (Roland Garros Day 9 - Monday June 2nd)

Sonny’s 시니야 Goblin Shorts:

• Jannik Sinner “More Than” 📈 5.5 break points won (2.5x multiplier):

• We all saw what he did to Jiri (😔). Carota boy is the most consistent player on tour. He has earned the world #1 title. Players of this caliber only tighten their gears as draws go on. I expect Sinner to be the more polished and consistent player throughout match.

• Jessica Pegula “More Than”📈 16.5 Total Games (2x multiplier): ✅

• Pegula likely wins in straights, but the 🇫🇷 crowd could lift Boisson enough to push a 6–4 or 7–5 set. Safer than the 19.5 total or 21.5 fantasy line.
  —————————————————
  🌕Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳

• Coco Gauff “More Than” 📈 18.5 Fantasy Score: ✅

— Form looks good, serve has been shaky, but return of serve and her breakpoint creation have been top tier on clay this season. No inflation on the line yet due to market fear that Coco drops a set. Gauff wins here though. One of the better and more stable fantasy lines considering the pedigree of player.

• Alexander Zverev “More Than” 📈 35.0 Total Games: ❌

• Griekspoor’s serve keeps things tight here. Potential 4-set grinder. Play cautiously or pair with a softer line. Personally think Tallon can win a set so, value in my opinion.

• Jack Draper “More Than” 📈 34.5 Total Games:

• Don’t typically trust players like Bublik (weak mental, streakiness), but we’re getting deeper in the tournament here. Stakes and purpose for being on the court should rise which should see a competitive Bublik. Something like 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 seems likely. Probably my least confident due to Bubliks ability to tank sets at any moment though.

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis, but don’t just take my word for it. Look into lines yourself as well. Maybe you have opposing views, which is ok. Good luck either way everyone

[dapper shadow]

Please differentiate🙏🏽

[dapper shadow]

WTA 125k Bari + Birmingham OOP: Monday, June 2nd

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Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 addition-

Coco Gauff “less than” 📉 2.5 aces: ❌

•last 5 police don’t look , wee-woo, wee-woo. been going under pretty consistently on clay, serve has already been shaky. Ekaterina should play catcher well enough

[dapper shadow]

I’ll get to this later in the week. don’t even want to think about it right now.

Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳 Props go 3/6. No sugarcoating, face the reality head on. Results come and go, integrity doesn’t. A few things didn’t go our way (maybe 1 less coco first serve, maybe another bp conversion) but that’s the name of the game at times. Will scan the board for any value and release another set of Shorts 🩳 tonight if there’s props that I think are worth a look from a value standpoint. Have a blessed day 🙏🏽

[dapper shadow]

WTA 125k Bari + Birmingham OOP: Tuesday, June 3rd

Roland Garros Day 10– Full Order of Play (Tuesday, June 3rd)

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🚨If you had a bart simpson PFP and messaged me about tailing Sonny’s Safety, please reach out to me again. I fat-fingered and accidentally closed the DM🚨

[dapper shadow]

Looks like we have Makarska props on the board as well so here’s the OOP (Order of play) for Tuesday, June 3rd. Local time is not converted to EST/PST so please be aware (have to work on other things tonight).

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🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 (Roland Garros Day 10 - Tuesday June 3rd)

Sonny’s 시니야 Goblin Shorts 🩳:

•Tommy Paul “More Than” 📈 1.5 Break Points Won (2.75x value): ❌

-Carlitos has dropped just two sets all tournament,.. but he hasn’t run into our boy 🇺🇸 Tommy Paul yet. TP has taken a set off him in 4 of their 6 ATP-level meetings. He’s not flashy. He’s not always on center court. But what he is… is a grinder. A (pardon my French) mf DOG 🐕.
Coming off two straight 5-setters he may be tired, but expect him locked in, barking for the USA 🇺🇸.
Being real though: Spaniard likely wins in 4. Still, his serve is the softest part of his game right now, and Tommy’s athleticism plus stable baseline play will force Carlitos into errors as we’ve seen before.
All we need are two. value.

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳

•Lorenzo Musetti “more than” 24 📈 fantasy: ✅

-The one-handed backhand returns to the top 10 Musetti style. (Keep that fraud-tsitsipas out of there.)
I’ll be honest, Musetti used to frustrate me. Showman stuff, caked lineups… but he’s grown on me. Dude’s matured (papa musetti) and looks the part on clay now.
Antithetically, Big Foe has been spotty all year. He’s finding form here, sure, but let’s not forget he’d only won back-to-back matches twice before Roland Garros.
Lorenzo is a one-handed, diamond-opal wall (shoutout overshell 🐚), and he’s going to drag Frances into rallies he doesn’t want. Musetti in 4 with a healthy number of aces 🇮🇹.

•Alexandra Eala “more than” 📈 15.0 fantasy score: ❌

-Getting some grass action in. Chose your fighter kind of line and I choose Eala. She’s scrappy and will elongate points for Linda. Manageable line even in a 3 set win.

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis, but don’t just take my word for it. Look into lines yourself as well. Fact check me and my reasoning. Transparency. You should know all the in’s, outs , and why something is being put in play. @ me, ping me, DM, if you need more reasoning. I will do my best to respond when I can. Have a blessed night 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

Still backing him now. Respecter of coin🙏🏽🇮🇹 #PapaMusetti (s/o the 🐐 @craggy reef)

[dapper shadow]

Shorts 🩳 go 1-2 today. Been disappointing results all around for me. TP unfit, Eala losing it in the 3rd. Just not the kind of reads yall deserve.

Depending on how tomorrow’s plays go, I’ll be pausing lineups for a bit to find my footing again. This clay szn’s been volatile, and I’ve just got to reset.

I’m not here for clout, I don’t make money from this, and I don’t act or label myself as some all-knowing entity. I’m human. I miss, I fall. I will however stand back up. Even if that path takes a new direction.

🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 (Roland Garros Day 11 – Wednesday, June 5th)

:Sonny’s 시니야 Goblin Shorts:
• Novak Djokovic “more than” 📈 3.5 break points (2.75x)
– This is a soft number for Novak, especially in a projected 4+ set battle with Zverev. He’s older in age sure, but his return game remains elite, and Zverev’s second serve is still a pressure point that Novak’s historically exposed, clearing this in 4 of their last 5 Slam meetings (obviously different courts, conditions, and players at those times, but data is data). Don’t want to guess the winner here, but I’ll take the return 🐐 to secure the gobbie.
(Concerns around Novaks fitness so play lighter if you do.
-Sonny : 7:47pmEST)

• Coco Gauff “more than” 📈 18.5 games played (2.25x)

-Keys has the pure firepower. The big first serves, the flat groundstrokes, etc., which complement her game quite well and allows her to steamroll through opponents when “on”. Coco on the other hand, utilizes her athleticism to absorb pace and flip extended rallies into her favor. This contrast in styles is what leads me to the “more than” 18.5 gobbie. You could elect for the 21.5 games outright, but as prefaced in the header, i’m looking for wins right now or we’re pausing ✅ . Value 2.25x play it is.

—————————————————

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳
• Iga Swiatek “more than” 📈 22.0 games played
-•While Iga’s dominance at Roland Garros is well documented, Aryna’s power and first-strike tennis can turn tides rather quickly. The matchup screams tiebreak or 3 sets, and even in a straight-sets win, something like 7-6 6-4 still clears. This is less about trusting one player over the other and more about respecting their games individually

Lean:
• Iga Swiatek “more than” 📈 10.5 fantasy score
-In my personal draw i have her going to the finals so this only feels right. The one meeting on clay that Sab was able to collect was in Madrid which , conditions suit Sabs game much better. Here in Paris though? Give me the 4x champion (not to repeat) to win outright

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis is just one man’s lens. DONT! follow me blindly. Look into lines and reasonings. Know all the how’s and why’s. @ me, ping me, whatever if you need more explanations.

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 11– Full Order of Play (Wednesday, June 4th)

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WTA 125k Bari + Birmingham + Makarska OOP (order of play): Wednesday, June 3rd

Please also welcome @obsidian skiff to the Tennis Ambassador Team 🔥🎉 . Be on the lookout for his posts and breakdowns !

[dapper shadow]

https://tenor.com/view/that's-my-dawg-dance-funny-gif-6546107122970211581

[obsidian skiff]

Small writeup for each play, tail at your own risk of course. Do your own due diligence and don't tail anyone blindly, including me. (I know I'm posting this late at night, I'll get used to posting these earlier in the day in the future)

Boluda: This is a matchup where former #21 and tour veteran Teichmann is the heavy favorite with a 65% hold rate on service games going up against Boluda, an ITF/WTA125k lifer who has yet to see any success on the main tour level in the 3 years she's been active; who only breaks at a rate of 41% on return games. Overall tour experience and serve superiority should make this a walk in the park for Teichmann, limiting Boluda's break point chances.

Volynets: Volynets is simply the much better player. Recording 12 clay wins since March while her opponent last clay win was September of last year on the ITF circuit. Volynets is also generally a very clean player, averaging almost 0 to 1 double faults a match. Her opponent is the opposite, ranging from 8 to 15, with 15 being her most recent in a straight set lost. The double fault differential should open up plenty of break point chances for Volynets and let her cruise into an easy sub 18-game win.

Andreeva: "Boisson did good vs Pegula! Why the under?!" - Andreeva is the better clay court player and is more comfortable on these courts with years of training in France in which clay courts are more prominent than the hard courts in America that Pegula is used to. With Andreeva's current rise to #6, winning two WTA1000 events, defeating the likes of Rybakina, Swiatek, Svitolina, and Sabalenka, it's hard to think anything else than Andreeva ending Boisson's fairytail run here.

[dapper shadow]

Resolved.

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 (Thursday June 5th)

Sonny’s 시니야 Goblin Shorts:

•Aryna Sabalenka “more than” 3.5 📈 breakpoints won (2.75x):
-Sabalenka’s aggressive return stance allows her to pounce early in rallies, even against elite servers (i.e. Qinwen). Iga is a phenomenal defender, but her serve isn’t untouchable and Aryna’s power can create immediate pressure for her. If this goes three sets, we could see Sab have plenty of chances to cash this line. It’s also 2.75x, meets the Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 value criteria.

•Aryna Sabalenka “more than” 📈 2.5 aces (2.75x):
-She’s cleaned up her double fault tendency and, Sabalenka’s first serve pops off the clay with unpredictable bounces at times. She’s cleared this in tighter matchups, and Iga’s deeper return position gives her space to work. This is a quiet over that doesn’t need a perfect match to hit.

•Iga Swiatek “more than” 📈 0.5 aces (2.00x):
-Iga’s not known for aces (in fact i love a nice iga under aces), but her slice serve has proven capable of snagging a free point or two per match. She’s also cleared this in 7 of her last 8.

• Coco Gauff “more than” 📈 4.5 double faults (2.00x):
-Coco’s second serve remains a liability, especially when she’s tense or trying to hit out of trouble. Boisson doesn’t need to do much here.. just stand steady and let Coco’s nerves surface. Against Keys her contact point was constantly changing on her second serve, very bad for rhythm. If this stays close, the double faults will come on their own.

•Coco Gauff “more than” 📈 4.5 breakpoints (2.75x):
-Coco’s return game brings pressure. It’s not her preferred surface, but her footwork is not too shabby on clay. Lois Boisson might’ve shocked Mirra with steadiness and patience, but she’s now up against one of the tour’s most physical returners. Coco’s bp line has been a steady wagon all tournament, why stop now. Like the 2.75x gobbie here, nice value.

—————————————————

🌕Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳

•Lorenzo Musetti “more than” 📈 14.5 games won:
-Carlos leads the head-to-head 6–1(not pretty), and most would write Musetti off before they even step on court. But this isn’t best-of-three in Monte Carlo or Rome. 5 setters are built on endurance and rhythm(as we saw with Zverev and Novak). In a separate analysis I mentioned the Italians growth physically and maturity-wise as well. Musetti doesn’t blitz you with relentless power, he threads and maneuvers you around the court with topspin and elegance, dragging you into points you don’t want to play (as France’s found out). Look for Musetti to extract just enough errors from Carlitos to nab a set Friday. Spaniard in 4 but Lorenzo doesn’t go away quietly.

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis. Please look into lines yourself as well. Maybe you have opposing views, which is ok.

Roland Garros Day 12– Full Order of Play (Thursday, June 5th)

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WTA 125k Birmingham + Bari + Makarska OOP (order of play): Thursday, June 5th

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🌧️WTA 125k Birmingham weather update🌧️:
-Weather looks quite bad (it’s England, we have to get used to it for grass szn). Play suspended for the next 1-2 hours

[dapper shadow]

🌧️Unfortunate update. All play suspended. Matches will be resumed tomorrow. There are no DNP’s for weather. They will play as soon as possible tomorrow.

https://x.com/edgeaiapp/status/1930685872829063265?s=46

edgeAI (@edgeAIapp)

No more play today due to darkness at the Birmingham Challenger tournaments.

Matches suspended:

Colton Smith vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

Robin Montgomery vs Zeynep Sonmez

Demoliner / Doumbia vs Holt / Schoolkate

Barnett / Lechemia vs Kempen / Ponchet

X · Jun 5, 2025, 5:59 PM

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WTA 125k Birmingham + Bari + Makarska OOP (order of play): Friday, June 6th

Roland Garros Day 13– Full Order of Play (Friday, June 6th)

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🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 (Friday, June 7th)
(WTA 125k + RG Semis Slate)

Sonny’s 시니야 Goblin Shorts:

• Carlos Alcaraz “more than” 📈 5.5 Break Points Won (2.50x)
– Easier return matchup vs Musetti who has a vulnerable 2nd serve.

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳
• Jannik Sinner “more than” 📈 25.5 Fantasy Score
–Sinner in 4 is generous. I lean carota in straights, but i’ll be generous and say 4. Line is soft, clearable even if grandpa somehow takes a set.

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis, but don’t just take my word for it. Look into lines yourself as well. Maybe you have opposing views, which is ok. Good luck either way everyone

Smaller list with minimal reasoning for the time being. Will be out tonight so I wanted to release now, edit/perfect when able to.

[dapper shadow]

Please react if you tailed 사니야’s safety #7. Drawing will take place Saturday night (after UFC 316). I will collect names Saturday, June 7th @ 12:00pmEST so please react if you are eligible and wish to be entered into the $25 drawing

🚨 Please remember, you must have tailed the lineup in its entirety. That means Merab + Sinner. I will be checking for confirmation. Thank you for trusting me. Have a blessed day 🙏🏽

[obsidian skiff]

Final scores after Musetti Retirement
Carlos Total Games: 35
Carlos Fantasy: 26.5
Carlos TGW: 23
Carlos BPs: 6
Musetti BPs: 3
Musetti TGW: 12

Further explanation: Musetti retired in the 4th set down 0-2. PrizePicks will gift Carlos an extra 4 games to “finish” the set resulting in a scoreline of 6-0 in the 4th.
4-6, 7-6, 6-0, 6-0 - Alcaraz, resulting in 35 total games and a fantasy score of 26.5 with his 1 ace and 2 double faults.

[dapper shadow]

Roland Garros Day 14 - Full Order of Play (Saturday, June 7th)

WTA 125k Birmingham + Bari + Makarska OOP (order of play): Saturday, June 7th

[dapper shadow]

No list today (UFC day) but i’m fully behind my girl Coco 🇺🇸! Forged in fire, Rose gold 🌹! Have a blessed day whomever you’re pulling for 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ ATP Stuttgart + WTA Hertogenbosch Weather Update 🌧️:

[dapper shadow]

WTA London + ATP Hertogenbosch are also delayed 🌧️. Will updated if play resumes for any events.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ Update. Play should resume for the following grass tournaments:
WTA + ATP Birmingham
WTA + ATP Hertogenbosch
ATP Stuttgart

Updated OOP’s for cancelled matches will be uploaded this evening. My focus is shifting to UFC 316 for the time being. Have a blessed day🙏🏽

[dapper shadow]

https://tenor.com/view/vince-carter-its-over-done-finished-its-finish-gif-17214651

Drawing will likely take place after UFC 316 (depending on when it finishes)

[dapper shadow]

Going live ~ 10 minutes to select a winner

[dapper shadow]

Congratulations to @wooden sandal for winning. I’ll reach out to you personally in DM’s. Thank you again to everyone for your trust. Prayerfully the tide will turn for Sonny’s Safety this coming week

[dapper shadow]

For transparency purposes. Please also remember , to be entered, you must have DM’d me proof of you tailing the lineup.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야’s Shorts 🩳 Recap (June 1st-June 8th)

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🕊️ Sunday Reset Notice:

I’ll be stepping away Sunday to spiritually, mentally, and physically reset. It’s a day I’ve decided to devote entirely to God and peace, so I’ll be completely removed from Discord during this time.

Thank you for trusting me this week through tennis and UFC 316(if you rode there). I’ll see you all Monday re-centered and ready.
— Sonny 우주🌕

[dapper shadow]

Proverbs 11:1
“A false balance is an abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is His delight.”

@wooden sandal — please refrain from tailing future lineups under the Sonny’s Safety system.
This is a transparent, God-guided process, not a promotional campaign, nor a space for deception.

I do not build for clout, followers, or fame. I don’t position myself as the “smartest” or “baddest” in this space because I’m not.
In fact, I’d rather you not follow me at all if you’re here for ego, trends, or shortcuts. I only move because it feels like I’m called to.

That said, you’re disqualified from this drawing. If at any point in the future you’d like to re-enter with transparency and respect for the process, that door remains open. But that decision is yours.

This isn’t being said in anger or humiliation, only in obedience.
Let it serve as a reminder that this is not just another DFS brand. I have no desire to uplift my own name or build my own platform. There’s a discerning eye behind everything here, and that eye belongs to someone greater than me.

To the community: thank you to those honoring the trust this system is being built upon. Truth, integrity, and transparency will always be the foundation of Sonny’s Safety.
Please forgive me for allowing this to slip through the cracks.

🎁 No video with the drawing. Please trust the transparent process nonetheless. New winner selected:

@gusty kelp I will be reaching out today (Monday, June 9) to confirm rule eligibility. Thank you all for your patience and continued faith in this journey. 🕊️

Have a blessed night. Back in the morning 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

ATP(250) + WTA(250) Hertogenbosch Day 1 Order of Play (Monday, June 9th):

ATP Boss Open(250) + WTA HSBC London (500) Day 1 Order of Play (Monday, June 9th):

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ATP(250) + WTA(250) Hertogenbosch Day 2 Order of Play (Tuesday, June 10th):
(Please note: Start times are still in local time)

Ilkley Challenger WTA + ATP Day 2 Order of Play (Tuesday, June 10th):
(Please note: Start times are still in local time)

ATP Boss Open(250) + WTA HSBC London (500) Day 2 Order of Play (Monday, June 10th):

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #8:

🥊 POTD – Raoni Barcelos “more than” 📈 12.75 Fight Time (mins):

-This isn’t prime Barcelos, but he’s still durable — and we saw him control the tempo well even against a lethal puncher like Peyton Talbott. Outside his TKO loss to Umar, he’s consistently pushed fights deep. Cody’s a calmer / more measured striker now, and if he can’t stuff takedowns or maintain distance, this easily creeps past 13 minutes and likely goes the distance.

Pair – Learner Tien “more than” 📈 20.5 Total Games Played:

-Yoshi’s played just four matches since February, but his rhythm-heavy, baseline style naturally drags matches out. He doesn’t earn many free points, which means longer rallies and tighter holds, a tempo that matches well with Learner’s patient, grinding approach. If Yoshi hangs tough and remains competitive (keeps his mental), this should go through.

📊 Record: 0–6 | ROI: -100%
🤍 Transparency + Trust = Longevity

[dapper shadow]

This isn’t for clout, it’s a process led by prayer and determination.

Sonny’s Safety #8 is live. May God get the glory if it hits. If it misses, $25 giveaway. Please follow the rules, that’s all I ask to be entered into the drawing .

🚨Must tail Sonny’s 사니야’s Safety in its entirety, not just 1 prop. $ amount tailed does not matter to me, could be as little as $1. You don’t have to have faith in me to be a part of this process, at the end of the day it’s not about me. Have a blessed week 🙏🏽 .

Note- This giveaway is funded by me personally, not sponsored by PrizePicks. Just my way of staying accountable to the process.

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 – Tuesday, June 10

Sonny’s 사니야 Goblin Shorts

• Hubert Hurkacz “more than” 📈 9.5 aces (2.25x):
One of the most consistent ace generators on grass. With a low break % on both ends and fast conditions in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Hurkacz can cruise into double digits even in a 2-set win. Just note: too many early breaks may limit chances.

• Learner Tien “more than” 📈 20.5 total games (2.25x):
Playing mature, patient tennis. Yoshi prefers long rallies over fast points and has only played 4 matches since Feb — if he starts slow, this could drag. 7–5, 6–4 cashes. So does a third set.

• Jessika Ponchet “more than” 📈 21.5 total games (2.75x):
Two scrappy grass players, no major weapons. Marino might start hot on serve, but Ponchet’s defensive shape extends points. Third set or 7–6, 6–4 feels in play. You could opt for 22.0, but 21.5 gives room.

• Otto Virtanen “more than” 📈 20.5 total games (2.25x):
When Otto’s locked in on serve, he’s a wall. Etcheverry doesn’t return well on grass. If both show up mentally, we should get at least one breaker or two close sets.

—

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳

• Yulia Putintseva “more than” 📈 4.0 break points won:
I trust Yulia’s fire in this spot. When she locks in, she’s top-20 level. Her matchup with Heather gives her plenty of chances if she stays in the fight.

• Diana Shnaider “more than” 📈 19.5 fantasy score:
Scrappy, emotional, but always competing. Shnaider plays like every point matters. If she wins in straights, this line clears easy.

• Danielle Collins “more than” 📈 17.5 fantasy score:
The better player here. The line is fair — cushioned enough to cover in straights even with a few double faults. Gets sweaty in 3, but still viable as a flex.

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis — but don’t just take my word for it. Study the lines. Wrestle with the matchups. See it different? That’s okay. Let peace be your guide. Not noise, not fear. Have a blessed day

[obsidian skiff]

Tail at your own risk, do your own due diligence, don't tail ANYBODY blindly

Alexandrova: Former semi-finalist at this same event last year with one of the highest ace rates on grass in the tour at 10.5% and a double fault rate of 5.4%. Last year she won all of her matches in straight set victories by 4-5 games and 23 aces and only 5 doubles in total. She would eventually lose to the champion of the event, Samsonova in the SF rounds. I expect Alexandrova to make quick work and have plenty of ace upside to cash this line.

Sakkari: Likewise with Alexandrova, Sakkari has an ace rate of 7.1% and a double fault rate of 6.2% on grass. She should have decent ace upside. Sakkari with a 75% hold rate and 70% 1st serve points won rate on grass should allow her to serve her way to an easy win vs an unproven, low ranked and yet to touch a grass surface in the past year rookie in Koevermans.

Krejcikova: She's baaaccccckkkkkk. Two time, TWO TIME, Wimbledon winner Barbora Krejcikova is back. Little data behind this play. Sramkova has been in horrible form this season, only making it past the first round in 6/14 tournaments this season. Putting that against Krejcikova's grass pedigree, I'll gladly back the returning and defending grass Grand Slam champion.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️Weather Update for Hertogenbosch + HSBC London 🌧️
-Please remain patient in the process
-No, matches will not be DNP’d.
-We will wait the weather out until it is suitable to play. -Patience💜.

Hertogenbosch (ATP / WTA) -Play has resumed once more.

HSCB Championships (WTA) - Play has resumed

•All play for all tournaments should be resuming .

-Sonny (12:10pmEST)

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 – Tuesday, June 10

Sonny’s 사니야 Goblin Shorts

• Hubert Hurkacz “more than” 📈 9.5 aces (2.25x): (Pending)
• Learner Tien “more than” 📈 20.5 total games (2.25x):✅
• Jessika Ponchet “more than” 📈 21.5 total games (2.75x):❌
• Otto Virtanen “more than” 📈 20.5 total games (2.25x):✅

—

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳

• Yulia Putintseva “more than” 📈 4.0 break points won:❌
• Diana Shnaider “more than” 📈 19.5 fantasy score:✅
• Danielle Collins “more than” 📈 17.5 fantasy score:❌

Results: 4 ✅ | 3 ❌ |

Not great, not horrible. Rest. Recenter. Realign. Then go again.
One post at a time, we keep moving forward. 🩳
—————————————————-

ATP(250) + WTA(250) Hertogenbosch Day 3 Order of Play (Wednesday, June 11th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Netherlands time (CEST). add 6 hours for EST / 9 hours for PST.

🕒 Example:
Jordan Thompson vs Gabriel Diallo – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

————————————————-
Ilkley Challenger WTA + ATP Day 3 Order of Play (Wednesday, June 11th):

🚨Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
Elsa Jacquemot vs Viktorija Golubic - 11:00 AM local:
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

—————————————————-
ATP Boss Open(250) Day 3 Order of Play (Wednesday, June 11th):

🚨 🚨 Note: All times are in local Germany time (CEST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example:
Arthurt Rinderknech vs Martin Fucsovics – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—————————————————
WTA HSBC London (500) Day 3 Order of Play (Wednesday, June 11th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
Emma Navarro vs Beatriz Haddad Maia – 1:00 PM local:
→ 8:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳 (Wednesday, June 11th)

Sonny’s 사니야 Goblin Shorts

• Ben Shelton “more than” chart 22.5 games played:
-Serve-heavy clash and Herbert won’t fold early. Ben wins, but not fast.

• Mark Lajal “more than” 📈 22.5 games played:
-Lajal’s firepower vs Djere’s baseline work. Think Djere steals a set or drags 2 tight ones.
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts

• Ben Shelton “more than” 📈 20.0 fantasy score:
-If Ben wins, he clears multiple lines (games, likely aces). Aces also = strong cushion.

• Amanda Anisimova “more than” 📈 3.5 Break Points Won:
-Amanda’s the cleaner player. If she locks in early, she’ll create chances and convert.

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 brief prop analysis. Please don’t blindly tail. Look into lines yourself as well. Have a blessed day🙏🏽

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #9:
🥊🇺🇸POTD - Joaquin Buckley “more than” 📈 68.5 significant strikes

pair - Ben Shelton “more than” 📈 22.5 games played:

📊Record: 0-7 | ROI: -100%
🩶Transparency + Trust = Longevity

🚨Please remember the rules to be eligible for the giveaway if either Sonny’s Safety loses this week.
-Must tail the full lineup in its entirety ($ amount does not matter, could be $1 for all i care, the fact you trusted me is repayable)
+
-Either Sonny’s Safety 8 or 9 must lose this week

•Whether you ride, or choose the bleachers this go around, it’s in Gods hands. Have a blessed week 🙏🏽💜

[obsidian skiff]

Otto Virtanen suffered a grade 2 MCL injury in his last match vs Etcheverry. Borges will either DNP due to Virtanen walkover or Virtanen will retire mid-match due to injury. Either way, I love the odds for Borges in this matchup.

Ruse has been on fire this tournament winning all her matches in straight sets while upholding an ace upside. I don’t mind backing her once again vs the up and coming Branstine.

[obsidian skiff]

As expected, Borges will DNP so refund this slip when possible. Do not play any Borges options tonight .

[dapper shadow]

Busy day but all days must be closed out properly:

🎾 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳
(Wednesday, June 11th) Recap

사니야 Goblin Shorts
• Ben Shelton “more than” 22.5 Games Played: ✅
• Mark Lajal “more than” 22.5 Games Played: ❌

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

🌕 사니야 Shorts
• Ben Shelton “more than” 20.0 Fantasy Score: ✅
• Amanda Anisimova “more than” 3.5 Break Points Won: ✅

Final Tally: 3 ✅ | 1 ❌

Lajal missed — but a lot to reflect on spiritually. Even in the losses, God reveals what we need to see. 🙏🏽

—————————————————
ATP(250) + WTA(250) Hertogenbosch Day 4 Order of Play (Thursday, June 12th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Netherlands time (CEST). add 6 hours for EST / 9 hours for PST.

🕒 Example:
(Q) Daniel EVANS (GBR)
(2) Ugo HUMBERT (FRA) – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

————————————————-
Ilkley Challenger WTA + ATP Day 4 Order of Play (Thursday, June 12th):

🚨Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
(1) Alexandra EALA PHI
10) Valenina RYSER SUI - 11:00 AM local:
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

—————————————————-
ATP Boss Open(250) Day 4 Order of Play (Thursday, June 12th):

🚨 🚨 Note: All times are in local Germany time (CEST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example:
[7] Alex MICHELSEN (USA)
[WC] Justin ENGEL (GER) – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—————————————————
WTA HSBC London (500) Day 4 Order of Play (Thursday, June 12th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
(5) Diana SHNAIDER
Katie BOULTER GBR – 12:00 PM local:
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

———————-——————————
CITTA' DI GRADO TENNIS CUP (WTA Challenger) Day 4 Order of Play (Thursday, June 12th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Italy time (CEST). Please add accordingly:
🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example: [7] Sinja KRAUS AUT vs [WC] Dalia SPITERI ITA - 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 (Thursday, June 12th)

Sonny’s 사니야 Goblin Shorts:

• Diane Parry “more than” 📈 2.5 aces:
• Mark Lajal “more than” 📈 1.5 double faults:

—————————————————
🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳

• Elena Rybakina “more than” 📈 24.0 fantasy score:
• Bianca Andreescu “more than” 📈 15.5 fantasy score:
• Ugo Humbert “more than” 📈 18.0 fantasy score:
• Sara Bejlek “less than” 📉 5.5 breakpoints won:
• Diana Shnaider “less than” 📉 22.0 games played:

—————————————————

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 props:
Don’t just take my word for it, look into lines for yourself too. You might see it differently, and that’s okay. Whether you agree or disagree, may you have a blessed and peaceful day 🙏🏽

[obsidian skiff]

Tail at your own risk, do your own due diligence, don't tail ANYBODY blindly

Fading the servebots on grass. Crazy? Maybe. Hurkacz was visibily in pain and constantly gripping his lower back in his match vs RBA. Lajal has already shown he has the skillset to neutralize a heavy serve in his matchup vs Opelka. I got Lajal winning via retirement by Hurkacz. If Lajal takes a set off Hurkacz at the very least, this line should clear.

Fading the servebots again on grass. Crazy? Yes. This line however makes absolutely ZERO sense. FAA is the favorite in this matchup and with Gio putting himself in 17 break points opportunities vs Safiullin (who only converted 2) - it puts little reason to back Gio in this matchup. Even if his performance vs Safiullin was a fluke, Gio winning in straights should clear and him losing should also clear.

Raducanu is her. I had my doubts about Sramkova vs Krejcikova and I still do. I don't believe she's in good enough form this season to upset the heavy favorite in Raducanu.

Michelsen took down old man Monfils in a triple set match with 36 winners and 26 unforced errors. He'll be going vs the grass court rookie who overcame James DuckUnworthy. Engel had 38 winners but even with a win, commited an egregious 46 unforced errors compared to Unworthy's 34. I trust Michelsen to use his tour experience to play cleaner ball, make less errors and force Engel into uncomfortable positions, cruising into an easy win.

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP(250) + WTA(250) Hertogenbosch Day 5 Order of Play (Friday, June 13th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Netherlands time (CEST). add 6 hours for EST / 9 hours for PST.

🕒 Example:
[7] Nuno BORGES (POR) vs [2]Ugo HUMBERT (FRA) – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
CITTA' DI GRADO TENNIS CUP (WTA Challenger) Day 5 Order of Play (Friday, June 13th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Italy time (CEST). Please add accordingly:
🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Tereza VALENTOVA CZE vs
Veronika ERJAVEC SIO - NB 12:00pm local:
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
WTA HSBC London (500) Day 4 Order of Play (Friday, June 13th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
(5) Diana SHNAIDER vs
(2) Madison KEYS USA – 12:00 PM local:
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP Boss Open(250) Day 4 Order of Play (Friday, June 13th):

🚨 🚨 Note: All times are in local Germany time (CEST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example:
[WC] Justin ENGEL (GER)
vs [4] Felix AUGER-ALIASSIME (CAN) – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
WTA Challenger: BBVA Open Internacional de Valencia Day 5 Order of Play (Friday, June 13th):

🚨 Note: All times are listed in local time (CEST). Please add accordingly.

🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example:

Louisa CHIRICO USA VS Mona BARTHEL GER - NB 12:00pm local:
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[obsidian skiff]

Writeups coming later

[dapper shadow]

Every day of work needs a closing:
🎾 Sonny’s Shorts Recap — Thursday, June 12th

Sonny’s 사니야 Goblin Shorts
• Diane Parry “more than” 📈 2.5 Aces — ⏳ Pending (Plays Friday)
• Mark Lajal “more than” 📈 1.5 Double Faults — DNP (Walkover)
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts
• Elena Rybakina “more than” 📈 24.0 Fantasy: ✅
• Bianca Andreescu “more than” 📈 15.5 Fantasy: ✅
• Ugo Humbert “more than” 📈 18.0 Fantasy: ✅
• Sara Bejlek “less than” 📉 5.5 Break Points Won: ❌
• Diana Shnaider “less than” 📉 22.0 Total Games: ❌
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
🙏🏽 Reflect. Recenter. Return with peace

📊 Record:
•6/2–6/6: 13 ✅ | 8 ❌
•6/9–6/13: 10 ✅ | 7 ❌ |
•Overall: 23 ✅ | 15 ❌ | → ~60% Hit Rate

Sonny’s 서니야 Shorts 🩳 Update — Tennis & Content Schedule:

Still awaiting Parry’s result for the final tally on Sonny’s Shorts for this week. Update beforehand.
Starting now, I’ll be following a more solidified structure for tennis content. Outside of Slams, I’ll only be posting from Monday to Friday. That rhythm has been fulfilled this week, and I’ll continue with that cadence moving forward.
The Lord is orderly and my process will begin to reflect that.
Whether you like me or not, my system is faith-based. Im neither shy, nor apologetic about it. I’m not hoping, crossing fingers, or wishing for results. I pray. I bring it before God. I post. And I let the result be the result.
I’ll reflect on every miss, and return with a changed / renewed perspective.

Going forward:

📅🎾 Monday–Friday → Tennis (Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🎾 + Sonny’s 사니야 Safety) - Released @ midnight EST

📅 🥋 Friday Night & Saturday → Combat content (Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🥊) - Released at noon EST (on day of fights)

🙏🏽 Sundays → Rest. You will not see me.

•Sonny’s 사니야 Safety will come as God and value move me. I may feel convicted based on value and prayer on Monday, maybe Thursday. This is my flag pin so I won’t rush this process for my own gain.

[dapper shadow]

Ben Double Down 🐺 — Separate From Sonny’s 사니야 Safety:
Not tied to #8 or #9.
I had two payout boosts waiting. This is a spiritual walk, not a results chase. If it misses, I’ll reflect. If it hits, I’ll give thanks.
I ride with Ben — not because I know, but because I believe.
Have a blessed weekend 🙏🏽

[obsidian skiff]

Tail at your own risk, do your own due diligence, don't tail ANYBODY blindly, including me.

Rybakina: If I told you that Tatjana had 41 winners and only 10 unforced errors vs Muchova today, most of us would expect that to be an easy straight set win, however that was far from the case in this triple set match. In a lost, Muchova had 41 unforced errors but the troubling stat is that Muchova had 68, SIXTY-EIGHT, winners vs Tatjana while she was serving a 1st serve at 59% and winning 1st serve points at 59% rate. You put Tatjana vs Rybakina who today vs Watson had less than half of Muchovas at 18 unforced errors while serving a 1st serve at 61% and winning 1st serve points at 82%, Rybakina will leave no room for Tatjana to breath.

Alexandrova: She's been a wagon this entire tournament and will continue to be one. Kudermetova's path to the Quarterfinals consisted of her sister, Polina, who is one of the worst players I've seen on the WTA tour currently and Greet Minnen who has no firepower in her serve and only had 5 winners vs Kudermetova. I fully expect Alexandrova to keep dominating this tournament behind her serve and with a line of 16.5, I fully expect her to cover this in 2 or 3 sets.

Humbert: Ugo came into his matchup vs Evans with doubt and concerns about his fitness and recent hand injuries. However he put all of those to rest with 33 winners and 12 of them coming from forehand shots. Borges had an easy route to the Quarterfinals with a win vs Basvareddy who was playing his first grass match on the pro level and a walkover by Virtanen after a grade 2 MCL injury. However, Borges win was his first win on grass on the pro level in his career. I fully expect Ugo to handle business here.

Shelton: Probably my least favorite of the four but still a very strong play. This match could easily go into a double tiebreak or a triple set match. However at a line of 14, all Shelton has to do to clear this line is win. Both possess a powerful serve and know how to handle pace very well. However, this is only Shelton's 2nd game on grass and I fully expect him to gain some momentum the more comfortable he gets. He showed great skillset in Roland Garros while winning 69% of his 1st serve points and 59% of his 2nd serve points vs arguably the best returner on the tour right now vs Alcaraz on a SLOW clay court. Ultimately, I'll back Shelton to win this match in a tight contest with his serve edging out Lehecka's.

[dapper shadow]

5-4. Twice..
Lehecka doubled six times (yes, six) serving to extend both sets. That’s how we lost. I won’t lie, I’m sick about it. I’m disgusted. I gave this to God, and I still got burned. But I also said I’d be here either way… And I meant it. This isn’t about the record. It was about moving forward with belief and conviction regardless of result. So here I am. No celebration. Just the truth. Hurts, but glory still to him.
Wishing you all a blessed weekend.
praying for a different outcome with Sonny’s Safety #8 & #9. See you Monday Tennis fam🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

Closing the week early to reset the heart with the new schedule. We ride again with Sonny's Safety 8 and 9 this weekend. Glory to God even in the losses. Again, see everyone Monday.

Overall Short’s 🩳 - Record: 23✅ | 15❌ | -> ~ 60.5% Total Hit Rate

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP(250) + WTA(250) Hertogenbosch Day 6 Order of Play (Saturday, June 14th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Netherlands time (CEST). add 6 hours for EST / 9 hours for PST.

🕒 Example:
[3] Elise MERTENS (BEL)
vs [2] Ekaterina ALEXANDROVA – 11:00 AM local:
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
CITTA' DI GRADO TENNIS CUP (WTA Challenger) Day 6 Order of Play (Saturday, June 14th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local Italy time (CEST). Please add accordingly:
🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Dominika SALKOVA CZE
Barbora PALICOVA CZE - NB 2:00pm local:
→ 8:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
WTA HSBC London (500) Day 6 Order of Play (Saturday, June 14th):

🚨 Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
[Q] Tatjana MARIA GER
(2) Madison KEYS USA – 1:30PM local:
→ 8:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP Boss Open(250) Day 6 Order of Play (Saturday, June 14th):

🚨 🚨 Note: All times are in local Germany time (CEST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example:
[4] Felix AUGER-ALIASSIME (CAN) VS [2] Taylor FRITZ (USA) – 12:00 PM local:
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
WTA Challenger: BBVA Open Internacional de Valencia Day 6 Order of Play (Saturday, June 13th):

🚨 Note: All times are listed in local time (CEST). Please add accordingly.

🕒 +6 hours = EST
🕒 +9 hours = PST

Example:

[1] Maria KOZYREVA / Iryna SHYMANOVICH vs [WC] Alina Korneeva / Solans Sierra - NB 2:30pm local:
→ 8:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
Ilkley Challenger WTA + ATP Day 6 Order of Play (Thursday, June 12th):

🚨Note: All times are in local UK time (BST). Please add accordingly:

🕒 +5 hours = EST
🕒 +8 hours = PST

Example:
Iva JOVIC USA vs [2] Viktorija GOLUBIC SUI - 11:00 AM local:
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

No props(UFC Atlanta focused). Will have Halle (ATP), HSBC London (ATP), Berlin (WTA), and Nottingham (WTA) OOP’s (Order of Plays) posted consistently once those tournaments make it to the main-draw. Best of luck on all lineups entered tomorrow 🙏🏽💜.

[obsidian skiff]

Zverev: In this matchup, I'm essentially backing Shelton's momentum and great play showcased against Jiri vs Zverev's consistency to choke in later rounds of recent tournaments. I think Shelton's redline momentum and aggressive play will be a direct counter to Zverev's patient and baseline play waiting for his opponents to make errors. As long as Shelton takes a set with a low ace allowance, he should go under but I have Shelton in 3.

Opelka: Mr. Servebot is finally getting his groove. I expect little to no breaks in this match vs Bergs with atleast 1 tiebreaker or a triple set match. With Opelka only losing his serve twice so far since qualifications in this tournament and a total of 10 tiebreaker sets out of 15 between the two, I love this line for Opelka. Push at worst to me.

Keys: Rybakina you suck.. This matchup should be Rybakina vs Keys but Rybakina had no answer for Tatjana's slices and was an unforced error machine, missing easy shots. Keys has always been consistent on grass and her playstyle should be able to respond very well and quickly to Tatjana's slices if she decides to go that route again.

Alexandrova: Don't make me regret putting you back on my slip Alex. She should've never lost that 1st set vs Kudermetova. That first set had a total of 9 break points, 36 unforced errors, and an egregious 38% of service points won, showcasing the absolute worst in women's tennis. Alexandrova eventually found her groove again in the 2nd set and having nearly 3x the amount of winners and the same amount of unforced errors in sets 2-3 as she did in the first set. She served well with 7 aces and 5 double faults in the 2nd and 3rd set aswell. The last time Alexandrova had 10 double faults was January of 2024. I fully expect her 1st set disaster to be an anomoly and to fully take care of business tomorrow vs Mertens.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️Hertogenbosch Weather Update🌧️:

•⚠️ Current situation: Afternoon rain has paused play. Estimated short delay (~20–30 minutes).

•🌤️ Weather outlook: Drying quickly. Conditions today look stable.

•🕓 Play resumption ETA: Likely within the next 30–60 minutes. Feature matches should follow shortly.

•📡 Stay tuned: Official updates via Libéma Open’s X, EdgeAI X.

🚨Hertogenbosch play has resumed . Play will proceed as seen in the order of play.
•10:35 AM EST
-Sonny우주

[obsidian skiff]

Just wanna address a few things since this is the first full reverse sweep I've had since posting in here.

Zverev played unbelieveable and played perfect. Zero break point chances, double the winners to unforced errors and just served better than Shelton. This was a bad read by me and I'll take that on the chin.

Opelka in his last match vs Medvedev had 24 aces to 0 double faults, 44 winners, 26 unforced errors, 72% serve accuracy and won 84% of his first serves. This was vs Medvedev who is a great returner and majority of people would say he's leagues above Zizou Bergs. However today, Opelka got broken 3 times, more than he has this entire tournament so far, only 3 aces, 1 double fault, and had double the unforced errors than winners. There was so data or any amount of "ball knowledge" that would've made anyone predict this drastic of a fall-off. If anybody can prove to me that this was going to happen, I'm all ears.

I faded Tatjana Maria after she beat Rybakina and I paid the price. However before this event, she was on a 9 match losing streak. She is now the oldest woman since SERENA WILLIAMS in 2020 to reach a finals round. Again, if anyone would like to show me the data or explain ball knowledge that could've predicted Maria to go on a 9 game losing streak, go through qualifiers, beat 2 top 20 players and 1 top 10 player and then later set a record set by the greatest womens tennis player of all time, I'd love to hear it.

Alexandrova had the win in the palm of her hands. She had match point on 11 different occassions to end it in straight sets and go over her line. The last time ANYBODY, not just male or female but in the entire sport of tennis saved 11 match points was by Zsofia Gubacsi in 2001. This was a great display of perserverance and guts by Elise Mertens. Props to her.

Now I'll always own up to my own chalks, but let's keep in mind that it is impossible to have a 100% hit rate and anybody that says otherwise is out of their mind. We win some, we lose some. It is what it is but try to have respect not just for me but for those in the #🎾┃tennis channel aswell. If you're going to target and troll someone for a chalk, just know that you've probably had the same bad luck of a day at one point aswell.

[dapper shadow]

🥊 Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #8 + #9 Giveaway: (Scheduled ahead. I won’t be able to do this later, Buckley walks after midnight — may God’s will be done.)
I committed to full rest every Sunday.
No PrizePicks. No Discord. No DFS.
Unless your name is Noel, you will not hear from me until Monday, June 16th.

So as promised, this post is scheduled ahead of time. If Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #9 misses, it will go live. If Buckley hits, we give thanks — and this post will remain unseen.
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
🎁 Giveaway Rules (Same as Always):
• React ONLY if you tailed the full Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #9 (both props).
• Reacting without tailing either = disqualified.
• Reacting after tailing only one = disqualified. I will be checking.

If you’re caught lying, you won’t be judged, but you will be called out(Proverbs 11:1). Let your word be your word. Win or lose, uphold your character.🕊️
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
⏰ I’ll return Monday, June 16th @ 12:00 AM to:
A) Give glory to God — regardless of result
B) Select the giveaway winner (only if Safety #9 misses)

[dapper shadow]

Glory to God! First Sonny’s 사니야 Safety to hit.. All him.. Only him.. See you all Monday 🙏🏽

[obsidian skiff]

Fearnley: People have quickly forgotten the monumental run Fearnley went on last year. Starting the year in 2024 ranked #600s, he then later won his first ever challenger title on grass courts right here in the United Kingdom. He would then later win 3 more, winning 4 in a row resulting in the fastest rise and entry into the ATP Top #100s. Home crowd, powerful striking and familiarity with these surfaces, I'll gladly back the Brit.

Bublik: After seeing Bublik's absolutely insane run at Roland Garros, it's hard not to back him. Defeating the likes of Minaur and Draper but ultimately falling to Sinner. Bublik is also very familiar with these surfaces and in particular this tournament, winning it in 2023 vs Andrey Rublev. Given his recent momentum, past success at these tournaments and insane ace upside, I'll take him vs Muller.

Putintseva: Not much to it here. Putintseva is facing Klugman, a 16 year old who has little to no experience on the main tour level and mostly has been competing in Junior and ITF events. Putintseva went pro at the age of 14, the same year Klugman was born. I fully expect Putintseva to use her pro tour experience of 16 years and breeze past Klugman.

Andreeva: Andreeva hasn't had much success on grass but that was in the past. This year she was been on a roll making it to the QF of the last 3 events in a row and winning two 1000 events. She has also yet to lose a first round match all year. Simple read and common sense makes me back Andreeva in this matchup.

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP HSBC Championship (Queen’s Club, London 🇬🇧)

🕒Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Frances Tiafoe (7) vs (WC) Daniel Evans — 12:00 PM local (BST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Terra Wortmann (Halle) Open (Halle, Germany 🇩🇪)

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Fabian Marozsan (HUN) vs Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Lexus Nottingham Open (Nottingham, UK 🇬🇧)

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Olivia Gadecki (AUS) vs Antonia Ruzic (CRO) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Berlin Tennis Open (Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪)

Time zone: CEST
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Marta Kostyuk (UKR) vs Emma Navarro (USA) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

OOP’s for Monday, June 16th uploaded. Forwarding AJ’s breakdown again here so it doesn’t get buried.

[dapper shadow]

📢 Sonny’s Safety Giveaway Update
After prayer and reflection, I realized I need to uphold the full integrity of the Sonny’s 사니야 Safety system. While I fully trust the honesty behind the most recent selection and appreciate their transparency (no names, I won’t blast someone who followed up respectfully), this giveaway is specifically for those who tailed the entire pair exactly as posted.

🙏🏽 Please only react if you tailed Safety #8 and #9 exactly as posted.
If you only tailed #8, you’re still eligible, I’ll be re-rolling. I say this respectfully not for me, but so the system stays clean. I’m all about transparency. If this occurs again, giveaways will be paused altogether. This isn’t something funded by PrizePicks, it’s from my own pocket, and all I ask is that the rules are followed.

🎁New winner will be selected at 9:00pm EST (Monday, June 16th). Will be back around 5:00am to answer Q’s and help with match updates.

[dapper shadow]

Winner selected, confirming eligibility. If disqualified i’ll pray on this and either
A) select a new winner
B) Discontinue giveaways until the transparency standards can be met.

Prayerfully the law has been kept here 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Berlin Tennis Open (Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 2 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[WC] Naomi OSAKA JPN vs Liudmila SAMSONOVA — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Lexus Nottingham Open (Nottingham, UK 🇬🇧) Day 2 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
[WC] Francesca JONES GBR vs [WC] Harriet DART GBR — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Terra Wortmann (Halle) Open (Halle, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 2 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[4] Andrey RUBLEV
vs [Q] Sebastian OFNER (AUT) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP HSBC Championship (Queen’s Club, London 🇬🇧) Day 2 Order of Play:

🕒Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Brandon NAKASHIMA (USA)
vs Giovanni MPETSHI PERRICARD (FRA) — 12:00 PM local (BST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

[obsidian skiff]

Fearnley: ✅
Bublik: ✅
Putintseva: ✅
Andreeva: ❌

What was coming out to be an amazing slip got sidelined by the worst Andreeva performance we've seen all season. Horrible and I should've known better. More slips coming soon.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #10:

🇫🇷POTD - Corentin Moutet “less than” 0.5 breakpoints won:
-To the naked eye and if you’re a L5 kind of person, this looks like it has some real life for the over. I’m moving on the less than though. I don’t follow trends, i don’t follow lines, I pray, ask to see, and move accordingly. Fritz takes the serve bot tag to a whole new level on grass. This matchup looks and feels like a rather quick and one-sided 2 setter. Looking for Fritz to be strong on serve (that’s all he needs to do for this line) and give Moutet few, if any at all, chances to break. He was lights out on serve against a much more competent list of return threats in Stuttgart, where he wasn’t broken once.

pair - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard “more than” 📈 23.5 games played:
-Two solid players on serve, two very mid return games. 3 setter or something tight like 7-5, 7-6 just feels very realistic for Mpetshi.

📊Record: 1-7 | ROI: -$170
🩶Transparency + Trust = Longevity

[dapper shadow]

사니야’s Safety Tracker for full transparency. System is not about quick hits or flashy wins. A slow but steady and rooted system is growing here. Take your time to pickup a jersey, i’m confident (not in my self) that the results will come. I move and grow not on my own.

[obsidian skiff]

No writeup for this one - tired tonight.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #10 Recap
Result: ❌ Corentin Moutet “Less Than” 📉 0.5 Break Points Converted:
📊Record Status: 1–8

Not much to say. I’m tired, boss.
Spirit tired. Heart tired. still here though.. Just one foot in front of the other. I guess.

[dapper shadow]

Every lineup I’ve shared was prayed over and offered freely as He gave the clarity to me. Win or lose I will not continue giveaways in a space where trust is repeatedly broken. I’m not a mascot. I’m not your buddy. I’m not a product. I’m a grown man walking with God.
If you’ve honored the system with reactions and confirmations, thank you — it means more than you know. Going forward, there will be no more giveaways. This was never about hype or popularity, it was a trust-based system, reserved for those navigating dfs communities with humility and truth.(Psalms 1:2–3)
I’ll try to find another way to reward your honesty in the future.

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Berlin Tennis Open (Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 3 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[8] Paula BADOSA ESP vs Emma NAVARRO USA — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Terra Wortmann (Halle) Open (Halle, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 3 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Zizou BERGS (BEL) vs [8] Karen KHACHANOV — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Lexus Nottingham Open (Nottingham, UK 🇬🇧) Day 3 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
(Q) Antonia RUZIC CRO vs Dayana YASTREMSKA UKR — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP HSBC Championship (Queen’s Club, London 🇬🇧) Day 3 Order of Play:

🕒Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT (ESP) VS [8] Jakub MENSIK (CZE) — 12:00 PM local (BST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳 (Wednesday, June 18th)

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Sonny’s 사니야 Goblin Shorts:

• Ons Jabeur “more than” 📈 2.5 double faults:
→ This isn’t even about Ons. It’s about how long this match could go. More games = more service points = more chances for this to stack. She’s not immune to rushing in tighter moments either. We just need three.

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

🌕 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳:

• Jack Draper “more than” 📈 23.0 fantasy score:
→ Popyrin’s got a dangerous serve, but his baseline game reeks (peeyeew aussie boy 🧅). If Draper holds strong and applies pressure on second serve returns, this tilts in his favor. He’s got the British juice now too (you got the juice now, kid. iykyk 🥤). No blowout needed — just the better player doing what he should.

• Amanda Anisimova “more than” 📈 4.0 breakpoints won:
→ Love Amanda — quiet, steady, solid season she’s having. Not the most consistent on serve, but she’s gritty and attacks on return. She’s better than Frech outright, will make her presence known on return, and should convert her looks. If not, I know she’s a player that will continue working for every point to get another look. Easy to back.

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Sonny’s Shorts 🩳 prop analysis:
PLEASE look into the board, check the matchups, and trust your own gut. Maybe you see something else — and that’s okay. God bless. Let’s move in peace and play smart.

[dapper shadow]

@obsidian skiff’s Lineup + Reasonings for Wednesday, June 18th 🙏🏽🔥

[obsidian skiff]

Just gonna preface this again, I do not know everything. I cannot predict the future. I am not the person playing in these tournaments. This is all a risk, nothing is a lock and nothing is free.

Do not tail me blindly and then get upset if it misses. Please, please, PLEASE do your own due diligence and research. This is my opinion and data-driven based slip.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #11:
🥊🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 POTD - Oban Elliott “more than” 📈 14.99 fight time (mins)

pair - Reilly Opelka “more than” 📈 22.5 games played (2.25x):

📊Record: 1-8 | ROI: -$180
🩶Transparency + Trust = Longevity

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s Safety #11 — VOIDED ( Pair Pulled Wednesday Morning (9:00amEST) No Longer Tailable). I am posting because I am still tracking this on my ROI sheet. Will post a new, tailable v11.5 @ midnight, June 19th, my normal cadence. POTD (Oban Eliott) will remain the same. Simply a promoter of transparency in these roles, I have nothing to hide.

pair will be replaced. Both will be tracked (Safety 11 & 11.5). Please remember giveaways are discontinued. ROI sheet posted below for full transparency.You do not have to tail or trust this process. Please proceed with caution until the ship is righted if needed. Have a blessed day.

[dapper shadow]

🎾 Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳 — Tennis & Content Schedule
(•Judges 3:12-15 - I can’t keep going into battle following others cadences. This will mark a new flow. An orderly flow.)

Update 🚨:
The cadence of midnight lineup releases remains the same, but Sonny’s 사니야 Shorts 🩳 is officially paused until further notice. My full focus is now on repairing Sonny’s 사니야 Safety, a system I still believe in with guidance (Romans 5:3–5). How many Safety releases per week? I can’t say. Maybe one, maybe four. I will only post when I feel led and when value is present.
I will not reach, I will not force, I will not move because of FOMO or group-chatter. This system was built on patience, prayer, and stability, not hype. I’m not here to be liked. I’m not here to be followed, definitely not here to chase trends.

❌ On Giveaways:
•All Sonny’s 사니야 Safety giveaways are discontinued.
The individuals I reached out to know who they are. Whether you remain silent or apologize, I hold no bitterness. The door is open, but I’m moving forward.

📅 Content Cadence (Effective June 18th):

🎾 Monday–Friday → Sonny’s 사니야 Safety
• Released @ midnight EST — only when value is present and I feel moved.

🕙 Daily (Monday–Friday) →
🎾 Tennis Order of Play (OOP) + PDF
• Posted @ 10:00 PM EST (includes local time, EST/PST conversion, and light/weather notes when relevant)

🥋🥊 Friday Night & Saturday → Combat Content (Sonny’s Safety 사니야)
• Released @ Noon EST — fight-day only (tennis goblin pairings will release throughout the week if/when value is found and I am moved.)
• Exception: UFC Baku will be posted @ midnight (6/21) due to the early card start.

🙏🏽 Sunday → Rest.
You will not see me. That day belongs to Him.

Though I may not post on a particular day, I will still be in chats, watching matches and answering prop questions when applicable daily.
You don’t have to walk with me.
hell, you don’t even have to acknowledge me. His timing though, have a great day.

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Berlin Tennis Open (Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 4 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Diana SHNAIDER vs Marketa VONDROUSOVA (CZE) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Lexus Nottingham Open (Nottingham, UK 🇬🇧) Day 4 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
McCartney KESSLER (USA) vs Lin ZHU (CHN) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Terra Wortmann (Halle) Open (Halle, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 4 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Felix AUGER-ALIASSIME (CAN) vs [8] Karen KHACHANOV — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP HSBC Championship (Queen’s Club, London 🇬🇧) Day 4 Order of Play:

🕒Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Jiri LEHECKA (CZE) vs Gabriel DIALLO (CAN) — 12:00 PM local (BST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #11.5:
🥊🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 POTD - Oban Elliott “more than” 📈 14.99 fight time (mins)

pair - Carlos Alcaraz “more than” 📈 0.5 double faults (2.00x):

📊Record: 1-8 | ROI: -$180
🩶 Obedience > Outcome | Transparency + Trust = Longevity

ROI tracker for full transparency, I have nothing to hide. Please note, the free lineup was won via pulse show and is being applied here.

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Berlin Tennis Open (Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[LL] Ons JABEUR (TUN) vs Marketa VONDROUSOVA (CZE)— 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Lexus Nottingham Open (Nottingham, UK 🇬🇧) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
[5] Leylah FERNANDEZ (CAN) vs Dayana YASTREMSKA (UKR) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Terra Wortmann (Halle) Open (Halle, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Alex MICHELSEN (USA) vs [3] Daniil MEDVEDEV — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP HSBC Championship (Queen’s Club, London 🇬🇧) Day 5 Order of Play:

🕒Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Jiri LEHECKA (CZE) vs Jacob FEARNLEY (GBR) — 12:00 PM local (BST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

[obsidian skiff]

Tail with caution. I cannot predict the future. I don't know how these players are going to perform. Do your own due diligence and do not tail anyone - including me, blindly.

Medvedev: Haha. Boy was I wrong the last time I took Danny-Boy. He took his loss vs Opelka personally, adjusted his game and put belt to Halys. He handled Altmaier with ease and completely negated Haly's monster serve. From averaging a 20% ace rate to getting halted to a brutal 6.7% in his matchup vs Medvedev. Daniil also won an astonishing 91% of 1st serves and 71% of 2nd serves and faced 0 breakpoints. The story of this matchup is more on Michelsen's recent form. He has zero quality wins. He beat an injured 38 year old in Old Man Monfils (who still took him to a triple setter), he beat Cerundolo who hasn't won a grass match in over a year (still took him to a triple setter), and beat an out of form, injury prone and recently inconsistent Tsitsipas (who almost took him to a triple setter). It is almost impossible for me to see any other script for this match that is not Medvedev embarassing the youngster in a straight set win.

Lehecka: This one hurts. I'm an avid TCU Alumni supporter who always backs Norrie and Fearnley however I don't see a way that Fearnley makes this competitive. Lehecka made quick work of both De Minaur and recent Libema Open Champion in Diallo. Lehecka is firing on all cylinders winning 90% of 1st serve points through both games. Fearnley however is only winning 31% of 1st serve return points and is repeatedly putting himself in a double fault deficit. Behind Lehecka's accurate serves, ability to play clean and not overcommit, he'll shrink the court and leave Fearnley no time or chances to win.

Bublik: Cmon. He just had the biggest win of his career in a win vs Sinner, the world #1. Bublik is the best all-around player in the group of power strikers with Opelka, Perricard and co. Going up against Machac who has retired countless times of late with injury issues. With the ace upside potential of Bublik and at a line of 20.5, he can cover in straight or triple sets. As long as he wins, he should cover and I have no reason to not believe that he won't.

[obsidian skiff]

Paula Badosa Retirement Update:
Total Games: Under
Fantasy: Under
Xinyu Wang Total Games Won: Over
She will NOT be rebooted.

[obsidian skiff]

BAAAANNNGGGGGG! BANG ME!

[dapper shadow]

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
WTA Berlin Tennis Open (Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 6 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[1] Aryna SABALENKA vs Marketa VONDROUSOVA (CZE)— 12:00 PM local (CEST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
ATP HSBC Championship (Queen’s Club, London 🇬🇧) Day 6 Order of Play:

🕒Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Jiri LEHECKA (CZE) vs [2] Jack Draper — 1:00 PM local (BST)
→ 8:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Terra Wortmann (Halle) Open (Halle, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 6 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[1] Kevin KRAWIETZ (GER) Tim PUETZ (GER) vs [Q] CABRAL (POR) / MIEDLER (AUT) — 12:00 PM local (CEST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

WTA Lexus Nottingham Open (Nottingham, UK 🇬🇧) Day 6 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Dayana YASTREMSKA (UKR) vs [6] Magda LINETTE (POL) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

Berlin 🇩🇪, Queen’s Club 🇬🇧, Halle 🇩🇪, OOPs are above☝🏽. Nottingham below 🇬🇧👇🏽
I’ll continue with Bad Homburg (WTA 500), Mallorca (ATP 250), and Eastbourne (ATP + WTA 250) when main draws are finalized.

[obsidian skiff]

Tail with caution. I cannot predict the future. I don't know how these players are going to perform. Do your own due diligence and do not tail anyone - including me, blindly.

Ofner: Simple reads all around for me tonight. Not going to overcomplicate things. Ofner is good on grass wiith a career win rate of 59.57%. What he lacks in mobility and return, he makes up for it in his serve with an ace rate of 18.5% and a double fault rate of only 5.5% on grass this season so far. Navone in his career is 0-4 on grass (1-6, 2-6 // 3-6, 2-6 // 4-6, 2-6 // 4-6, 7-6, 4-6). Despite starting his career in 2017 and bursting onto the scene in 2019, he only played his first ever grass match in 2023. He is also 8-16 (33%) on hard courts in his career aswell. Navone is what I like to call a "clay-rat". Only playing 35 matches in his career in both hard/grass courts combined but playing in 346 clay matches with a win rate of 64%. Putting Ofner's grass court experience and his heavy striking playstyle that'll only get boosted by the grass courts, it makes it easy to back the Austrian in this matchup.

Zandschulp: Same premise as before. Botic is 11-13 on grass courts (46%) while Basvareddy is 1-2 (33%) in their careers. Basvareddy has only ever played in 1 main tour grass match and that was recently vs Nuno Borges in which he lost 6-7, 2-6. I admit there are some fitness concerns with Zandschulp who is just now coming back from if I recall correctly, was a thigh injury that occured two months ago. I believe Zandschulp should be well in form enough with the break and with his decade long experience on the pro circuit vs a recent college grad in Basvareddy, I will gladly back Botic in this matchup.

**Brooksby:**Majchrzak is currently on a 6 game losing streak which started back during the Madrid Open 2 months ago. In terms of recent form, both are shaky. Both haven't been particularly too successful and/or active in this grass season. Serving wise both are within 2% of eachother in terms of 1st serve points, 2nd serve points and service points won. The key outlier for me in this matchup are the return metrics. On grass courts where every point matters, I think this is where Brooksby will gain the advantage. Brooksby is currently winning 7% more 1st serve return points and is also breaking his opponents serves 7% more often than Majchrzak. I don't think this will be a cakewalk for Brooksby but he should just barely manage to edge this match out with a win.

[dapper shadow]

•Sonny’s 사니야 Safety (Updated Record 3–8)

Was blessed to win a PrizePicks giveaway this past week (y’all should follow their Twitter if you don’t already — they run them often). I was led to double down on Safety #11.0, and by His grace, it hit, but it will not be included in ROI. Only “true” (self-funded) entries will be tracked towards ROI. However, the System Record (Sonny’s 사니야 Safety W/L) will count it. Same with 11.5.
I’m not the biggest, not the most knowledgeable, dang sure ain’t the baddest. Im faith based and am simply here to attempt to create a system built around stability, humility, and transparency. I can’t do this on my own, so it’s all centered around Him. Like me, don’t like me, it’s how i’m moving. Have a blessed Sunday. See you all Monday 🙏🏽

[obsidian skiff]

Lazy writeup for this bc it's late and I am lazy.

Navarro plays very clean, little unforced errors while Kostyuk plays aggressive, sometimes too aggressive and commits way too many unforced errors. Kostyuk produces more unforced errors in her 2 set matches than Navarro does in 3. I trust Navarro to play clean while Kostyuk continues to dig herself into another loss.

Krueger had 15, yes that's right, FIFTHTEEN double faults in her WIN vs Timofeeva. How did she manage to wint hat match? Who knows but there is ZERO chance I back someone that just lost to the same opponent a week ago and committed an egregious amount of double faults the match prior.

Similar to Navarro, Kudermetova relatively plays clean in her wins while Azarenka is prone to committing unforced errors. She's also 35. She is the third oldest woman on tour right now. Unless she has a massive underdog career resurgence like Tatjana Maria, I trust Kudermetova to outlast Azarenka simply put.

[obsidian skiff]

Very tough beat. Kudermetova looked good and won the 1st set. She played relatively the same in the 2nd set but she lost due to the thinnest margins by losing her serve once and being unable to convert EIGHT break point opportunities. Had this gone to a tiebreak, I have no doubt Kudermetova would've won this match in straight sets. Brutal, brutal, brutal.

[dapper shadow]

WTA + ATP 250’s Lexus Eastbourne Open (Eastbourne, Great Britain 🇬🇧) Day 2 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Zizou BERGS (BEL) vs Joao FONSECA (BRA) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

ATP 250 Mallorca Championships (Mallorca, Spain 🇪🇸) Day 2 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[5] Alexandre MULLER (FRA) vs Roman SAFIULLIN — 12:00 PM local (CEST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

WTA 500 Bad Homburg Open (Bad Homburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 2 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[8] Ekaterina ALEXANDROVA vs Belinda BENCIC (SUI) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧) Intended OOP for Qualifying Day 1:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Paul Jubb (GBR) vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (ARG) [19] — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

WTA 500 Bad Homburg Open (Bad Homburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Weather Update:

•Play for the following matches is currently suspended, but will resume shortly:

-(8) Ekaterina ALEXANDROVA vs Belinda BENCIC

-Magdalena FRECH POL
vs Clara TAUSON DEN

-[Q] Ajla TOMLJANOVIC AUS vs Linda NOSKOVA CZE

Sun is back out (partly cloudy), tarps removed, nets back up. Players are returning to courts. Play will resume soon.

-Sonny 07:16am EST.

[dapper shadow]

WTA 500 Bad Homburg Open (Bad Homburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 3 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Leylah FERNANDEZ CAN vs [2] Jasmine PAOLINI ITA — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

ATP 250 Mallorca Championships (Mallorca, Spain 🇪🇸) Day 3 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Benjamin BONZI (FRA) vs [Q] Brandon HOLT (USA) — 12:00 PM local (CEST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

WTA + ATP 250’s Lexus Eastbourne Open (Eastbourne, Great Britain 🇬🇧) Day 3 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
[4] Sofia KENIN (USA) vs [Q] Kimberly BIRRELL (AUS) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

WTA Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧) Intended OOP for Qualifying Day 2:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Lois Boisson (FRA) [1] vs Carson Branstine (CAN) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety #12
🥊🇧🇷 POTD – Alexandre Pantoja “more than” 📈 2.5 Takedowns

• This is a documented rematch, but you’d have to dig to even find the tape (from The Ultimate Fighter Cejudo vs Benavidez). It’s been so long that it holds little weight — both fighters have since evolved.
Pantoja will step into the octagon as the bigger man and will utilize it. KKF has pop🥊 , but it shouldn’t be physically overwhelming for Pantoja, he’s proven durable.
The path here should be pressure + grappling — and with 5 rounds and Pantoja again, being durable, there’s ample time and opportunity for this to clear.

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Pair – Rebecca Sramkova “more than” 📈 1.5 Double Faults (2.00x → 2.4x with 20% boost - MVP Shai)

• Not a “last 5” gold mine.. this is volume anticipation in what could/should be a tight match. As long as she sees enough service games, this should clear.

📊 Record: 3–8 | ROI: –$126
🩶 Faith > Outcome | Transparence + Trust = Longevity

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
Wimbledon🏆 is next week, and I have no itch to overplay my hand at the local fair when Disneyland is right around the corner . This will likely be the only lineup I place or release until then. What I hit submit on will be placed in here. I do not hide lineups, transparency is the bridge to longevity 🩶.

[dapper shadow]

nice, sramokva not even close. windy eastbourne conditions + not feeling threatened on serve by Jaqueline. No excuses, take losses on the chin and reflect. Holding off on tennis props until Wimbledon so hope everyone has a great week with props. Other cadences will remain the same, also the value on Pantoja still stands. Have a blessed day, taking a “Sonny” day so won’t be present🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧) Intended OOP for Qualifying Day 3:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Timofey Skatov (KAZ) vs Alexander Blockx (BEL) [29] — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

WTA + ATP 250’s Lexus Eastbourne Open (Eastbourne, Great Britain 🇬🇧) Day 4 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Lorenzo SONEGO (ITA) vs [4] Ugo HUMBERT (FRA) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

ATP 250 Mallorca Championships (Mallorca, Spain 🇪🇸) Day 4 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Corentin MOUTET (FRA) vs [8] Daniel ALTMAIER (GER) — 1:00 PM local (CEST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

WTA 500 Bad Homburg Open (Bad Homburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 4 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[8] Ekaterina ALEXANDROVA vs [WC] Maria SAKKARI GRE — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

[obsidian skiff]

Don't have the energy to do a write-up tonight but like always, tail with caution. I cannot predict the future. I don't know how these players are going to perform. Do your own due diligence and do not tail anyone - including me, blindly.

[obsidian skiff]

For future reference: would y'all prefer the same format as I have been doing currently with minimal writeups or just sending one or two PoTD(s) with a detailed writeup?
1️⃣ for Same format - 2️⃣ for PoTD.

[dapper shadow]

WTA 500 Bad Homburg Open (Bad Homburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Beatriz HADDAD MAIA (BRA) vs [2] Jasmine PAOLINI (ITA) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

ATP 250 Mallorca Championships (Mallorca, Spain 🇪🇸) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[6] Gabriel DIALLO (CAN) vs [4] Tallon GRIEKSPOOR (NED) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

WTA + ATP 250’s Lexus Eastbourne Open (Eastbourne, Great Britain 🇬🇧) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
[1] Taylor FRITZ (USA) vs Joao FONSECA (BRA) — Not Before 12:00 PM local (BST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧) Intended OOP for Qualifying Day 4:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Alex Bolt (AUS) vs Martin Landaluce (ESP) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

If playing ATP Wimbledon Props for Thursday, June 26th:

🛑 PLEASE STOP AND READ🛑 Prior to thinking a high Qualifier game or fantasy score line is “Free”

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ Wimbledon Qualifiers Weather Update 🌧️ :

-Storm passing through London at the moment . All play is suspended for likely the next 1-2 hours. The weather should clear, but it will be a LONG day for Wimbledon Qualies. Patience, Patience, Patience.

•Please know, there are NO DNP’s for weather delays for PrizePicks props in Tennis. Matches will resume (likely soon, again, 1-2hrs seems likely) when weather permits. It is currently 1:19pm BST . Weather should lighten (prayerfully) by 3-4pm BST

-Sonny (8:19amEST)

[dapper shadow]

🌧️Bad Homburg Update 🌧️:
-had to step away and will be away for some time, but looks like Homburg will be resuming play soon. EdgeAI is a very good source for updates if looking for answers. Good luck today.

https://x.com/edgeaiapp/status/1938234613719068787?s=46

edgeAI (@edgeAIapp)

Play to resume in 20-25 minutes or so at the Bad Homburg tournament. If no rain.

Rain Covers are off and court is getting prepared again.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek 4-6, 4-3* (40-40)

X · Jun 26, 2025, 1:55 PM

[dapper shadow]

WTA 500 Bad Homburg Open (Bad Homburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 6 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
[4] Timea BABOS (HUN) Luisa STEFANI (BRA) [2] vs Lyudmyla KICHENOK (UKR) Ellen PEREZ (AUS) — 11:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM PST

ATP 250 Mallorca Championships (Mallorca, Spain 🇪🇸) Day 6 Order of Play:

Time zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example:
Guido ANDREOZZI (ARG) Theo ARRIBAGE (FRA) [4] Yuki BHAMBRI (IND) Robert GALLOWAY (USA) — 1:00 PM local (CEST)
→ 7:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM PST

WTA + ATP 250’s Lexus Eastbourne Open (Eastbourne, Great Britain 🇬🇧) Day 5 Order of Play:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
[Q] Alexandra EALA (PHI) [Q] vs Varvara GRACHEVA FRA — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

Well-off my normal cadence, but keeping my word.. What I hit submit on is here. Still riding with the POTD 🇧🇷 even though the OG Sonny’s 사니야 Safety missed. Tossed it in a 2.7x with soft but favorable Taylor 🇺🇸 + Iga 🇵🇱 projections.

[dapper shadow]

Never touching a double fault prop again in my life — can kiss me where the sun doesn’t shine. Strictly total games / ace goblins moving forward. Head up, eyes on Wimbledon. Daily Sonny’s Safety drops start next week. Whether the record gets repaired or not, I’m all in on Wimbledon🌱.

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD for 6/27 - 6/28 -- Writeup may or may not be coming later.

Do not get the plays confused, there is a Griekspoor fantasy stat vs Moutet and one vs Brooksby, get the one vs Moutet

[obsidian skiff]

1-0 on PoTD

[obsidian skiff]

Just wanted to reiterate and bring a few things up again with it being Grand Slam time.

These matches are "Best of FIVE Set" matches, not the usual "Best of Three Set" matches that most of y'all are used to. This is solely just for the mens, not womens.

What does this mean?
It means every projection for the men will be higher. Fantasy, Total Games, Aces, Double Faults, and Break Points. Every projection for the men will be higher. Do not look at last 5 and think "oh this is a lock" based off of that.
Best of 5 sets instead of 3 -> More sets played -> More games played -> More BP/Ace opportunities, higher total game projections, higher fantasy scores.
DO QUALITY RESEARCH. DO NOT BASE YOUR PLAYS OFF LAST 5

Keep in mind that these tournaments are also on grass instead of clay like the prior grand slam. Break points will irregular and infrequent compared to Roland Garros on clay. Total games and fantasy projections will be your bestfriend the next two weeks.
Do research, playstyles and player matchups will matter more than ever

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety (Wimbledon Day 1 🌱)
• 🇧🇷🎾POTD: Joao Fonseca “more than” 📈 17.5 fantasy score:

• 🇺🇸Pair: Learner Tien “more than” 31.5 games played:

“he made an edit?”.. yes and i will continue to do so as Safety’s are released(i invest my time + money to show that each player is carefully chosen, not thrown together). they aren’t just “projections” or “squares” for your lineup. they’re athletes with powerful stories at the end of the day.

Fonseca🇧🇷 is 18 and has already been given the cross as his countries “next generational star”. a weight that very-few will have to understand in life. the kid however has “IT” and aims to place his name amongst the greats of his country as well.
I’m not here to convince anyone, tail or fade—it’s ultimately up to YOU. I just know what I see.. to the ones interested in a Fonseca 🇧🇷 jersey (figuratively), i’ll attach a reasoning soon (well before 5am EST), it’s been a longer day. Nonetheless have a blessed one and let’s start Wimbledon off properly 🌱🏆.

——— ———
Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧🌱) Intended OOP for Day 1:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Benjamin Bonzi (FRA) vs Daniil Medvedev [9] — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

🚨Please Note: Unless a player is the FIRST match on their designated court, their start time is a mere “projection”. A match ahead could run longer or there could be weather delays. Patience will go a long way.

[obsidian skiff]

Very sorry about the late drop, no writeup but Noskova is my PoTD and heres a play I used with her. Good luck!

[dapper shadow]

Fonseca shows Brazil 🇧🇷 picked the right one to carry the torch. Generational upside + generational composure.

We move from the Nishesh hook (5 set points missed in the first 😐), but that’s honestly just the game we play.

New Sonny’s 사니야 Safety Pair at midnight EST. Good luck if you’re still riding action today 🙏🏽.

[obsidian skiff]

2-0 on PoTDs

[dapper shadow]

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧🌱) Intended OOP for Day 2:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Elisabetta Cocciaretto (ITA) vs Jessica Pegula (USA) [3] — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

🚨Please Note: Unless a player is the FIRST match on their designated court, their start time is a mere “projection”. A match ahead could run longer or there could be weather delays. Patience will go a long way.

🚨Please also note the following matches that were suspended due to curfew and take note of whom plays ahead of them!

•Centre Court:
Arthur Rinderknech (FRA) vs Alexander Zverev (GER) [3]

•Court 1:
Taylor Fritz (USA) [5] vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (FRA)

•Court 12:
Botic van De Zandschulp (NED) vs Matteo Arnaldi (ITA)

•Court 4:
Shintaro Mochizuki (JPN) vs Giulio Zeppieri (ITA)

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety (Wimbledon Day 2🌱)
• 🇺🇸🎾POTD: Sofia Kenin “less than” 📈 4.0 breakpoints won:

• 🇷🇺Pair: Liudmila Samsonova “more than” 18.5 games played:

[dapper shadow]

you should never intertwine emotions with dfs, and though i love myself some taylor townsend, the data simply backs the projection up. 2nd serve % is king in WTA (imo) and taytay’s puts her among the top 100 (85th)(“bro what, that’s trash”.. no, that’s better than solid servers such as Qinwen Zheng, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Liudmila Samsonova to name a few.) this is a good stylistic matchup for the southpaw taylor here as well, especially on grass. again though, not here to convince anyone. at the end of the day, it’s on YOU to decide what YOU hit submit on. i’m fine here regardless of the result due to the time and effort i’ve put in with research, editing, and my personal rollouts. whether you decide to pickup a Townsend jersey (figuratively) or not, i wish you the best on whatever projections you play. Have a blessed night 🙏🏽.

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD for today.

[dapper shadow]

i’m sick of this. doubling down on the POTD with someone competent. don’t follow me down this rabbit-hole, chasing is never ideal in the dfs world.. i’m just.. tired 🤬!

[dapper shadow]

✅🅿️doubled down on the potd and though taytay gassed in the second set, she did just enough to cash the line. Draper also handled business in straight sets with ease. the chase was made public and I trusted it enough to triple it with a pulse freebie. for those asking about the overall system (sonny’s 사니야 safety):
potd’s are now 4 for the last 4, and 5 for the last 7 (MMA included. check it yourself. ROI sheet always attached to POTD’s). The Goblin side is still a work in progress, but if the primary reads keep hitting like this, the ROI will correct itself.

im resting Wednesday, July 2nd. no safety rollout tomorrow.. just updates and weather reports while I reset to preserve quality of projections / edits and to avoid burnout. when i say i invest hours at a time carefully selecting a potd, its not an exaggeration.
everyone have a blessed day / evening / night and best of luck on projections you hit submit on.

[obsidian skiff]

Horrendous beat. Vukic was in a prime position to win in straights and soar over this projection but instead got broken twice back to back.

2-1 Record on PoTD

[dapper shadow]

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧🌱) Intended OOP for Day 3:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time 🇬🇧)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Joao Fonseca (BRA) vs Jenson Brooksby (USA) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

🚨Please Note: Unless a player is the FIRST match on their designated court, their start time is a mere “projection”. A match ahead could run longer or there could be weather delays. Patience will go a long way.

🚨Please also note the following matches that were suspended due to curfew and take note of whom plays ahead of them!

•Court 15
-Brandon Nakashima (USA) [29] leads Yunchaokete Bu (CHN) - 6-4 4-6 7-6(1): NB (not before) 12:30 PM - local (7:30 AM EST / 4:30 AM EST)
to finish after Nicolas Jarry (CHI) vs Learner Tien (USA)

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD for 7/1 - 7/2, going right back to the ultimate coin respecter.

Record 2-1

[obsidian skiff]

Tail with caution. I cannot predict the future. I don't know how these players are going to perform. Do your own due diligence and do not tail anyone - including me, blindly.

Short writeup for this since people were asking. Noskova is an ace DEMON. Over the past 52 weeks cross all surfaces awith a sample size of 49 matches, she is currently 3rd in ace percentage on the WTA tour at 8.6%. On grass, she is currently 1st at 11.7%. The story of this matchup is more on Eva Lys's return liability. When she is going up vs prolific servers, she allows a shockingly high amount of aces on grass. Allowing 16.4% vs Burel last year in this same event, 18.6% vs Badosa earlier this year, and 8.7% vs Tomljanovic. The current WTA Tour average for Top 100 is 4.6%. In addition, Eva Lys also took a medical timeout in her last match vs Yue Yuan with a cited "Leg/Knee issue" and just recently retired in the 2nd set vs Tomljanovic. It's unclear what her condition will be but safe to say it won't be 100%. I fully expect Lys to struggle vs Noskova's serve in this match, leading to an easy Noskova straight set victory with plenty of aces to help bolster her fantasy score.

[dapper shadow]

🌱🇬🇧 Wimbledon Weather Update 🌱🇬🇧:
• 🌧️Rain delay - No play before 8:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM PST

•COURTS: 2,3,9,10,11,and 12 about to be introduced ! Go-time !
(7:59 AM EST / 4:59 AM PST)

[dapper shadow]

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧🍓 ) Intended OOP for Day 4:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time 🇬🇧)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Mirra Andreeva [7] vs Lucia Bronzetti (ITA) — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

🚨Please Note: Unless a player is the FIRST match on their designated court, their start time is a mere “projection”. A match ahead could run longer or there could be weather delays. Patience will go a long way.

🚨Please also note the following matches that were suspended due to curfew and take note of whom plays ahead of them!

•Court 2
-Luciano Darderi (ITA) vs Arthur Fery (GBR) - NB (not before) 7:30 AM EST / 4:30 AM PST -
to finish after Alex de Minaur (AUS) [11] vs Arthur Cazaux (FRA)

•Court 18
-Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) [25] vs Jan-Lennard Struff (GER): NB (not before 12:30 PM - local (7:30 AM EST / 4:30 AM PST)
to finish after Flavio Cobolli (ITA) [22] vs Jack Pinnington Jones (GBR)

•Court 6
-Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) [26] vs Botic van De Zandschulp (NED): NB (not before 12:30 PM - local (7:30 AM EST / 4:30 AM PST)
to finish after Camila Osorio (COL) / Alycia Parks (USA) vs
Alicia Barnett (GBR) / Eden Silva (GBR)

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety 15.0 (Wimbledon Day 4🍓)
•🇷🇸🎾POTD: Novak Djokovic “more than” 📈 19.0 games won:

•🇺🇸Pair: Catherine Mcnally “more than” 0.5 double faults:

⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety 15.5 (Wimbledon Day 4🍓)
•🇷🇸🎾POTD: Novak Djokovic “more than” 📈 19.0 games won:

•🇰🇿Pair: Elena Rybakina“more than” 4.5 aces:

[dapper shadow]

pairs have been lagging behind as of late so im rolling twice 🎲. i really like the push potential here on novak games won. Dan doesn’t have incredible weapons, but i think he’s crafty and annoying enough on grass to push at least one set long. not asking for him to win outright , not to take a set completely, but to simply have one run long. 7-5, 6-0, 6-0, is a hideous final score-line, but is an example of how minuscule the margin of error is for Novak. he’ll need 3 convincing and dominating sets to see this go under.

you also must know the danger here as well.. it’s Novak Djokovic after-all. Mr. 24 🏆. if that scares you even a little, i’d advise fading this POTD. it’s perfectly fine to be cautious and observe than to force something due to FOMO. whether you have a UK / Evans jersey on or not tomorrow, i hope you have success with lineups. have a blessed night 🙏🏽.

[obsidian skiff]

Horrible beat. Noskova only produced an Ace Percentage of 2.6%, her 3rd career lowest and Lys's 4th career lowest. There was absolutely no reason Noskova should've dropped that 2nd set. Terrible beat and I apologize, we move.

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD Record: 2-2

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD Record: 3-2

[dapper shadow]

“I almost got him guys.”
— Bublik, after Sinner put him in a blender 🎾
— Sonny after Novak reminds him he’s the 🐐

today the goblins delivered — but the POTD didn’t hold up.
props to AJ (@obsidian skiff ) on the sharp breakpoint read and for cashing chat.

i’ll be stepping away from another full sonny’s 사니야 safety rollout this week while I shift focus toward IRL editing and content. will also be putting down the racket and picking my hand wraps + boxing gloves up for catterall / eubanks lines 🥊

have a blessed weekend and Happy 4th 🧨🔥 see you all monday 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧🍓 ) Intended OOP for Day 5:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time 🇬🇧)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Dalma Galfi (HUN) vs Amanda Anisimova (USA) [13] — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

🚨Please Note: Unless a player is the FIRST match on their designated court, their start time is a mere “projection”. A match ahead could run longer or there could be weather delays. Patience will go a long way.

🚨Please also note the following matches that were suspended due to curfew and take note of whom plays ahead of them!

•Court 2
-Ben Shelton (USA) [10] leads Rinky Hijikata (AUS) - NB (not before) 12:30 PM local - 7:30 AM EST / 4:30 AM PST - to finish after:
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Naomi Osaka (JPN) (go naomi 😊💜)

•Court 18
-Marton Fucsovics (HUN) tied Gael Monfils (FRA): NB (not before) 12:30 PM local - 7:30 AM EST / 4:30 AM PST
to finish after:
Lloyd Glasspool (GBR) + Giuliana Olmos (MEX) vs Jackson Withrow (USA) + Irina Khromacheva

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD: I am the biggest Nuno Borges hater

[obsidian skiff]

Bro had a million double faults, rip. Still ended up winning like I predicted but horrible performance. 3-3

Flex Friday Slip, Cilic and Sinner are my favorite plays, no PoTD today.

[obsidian skiff]

Very close to a sweep but i’ll take a double up, profit is profit at the end of the day.

[dapper shadow]

Wimbledon 2025 Grand Slam (London, United Kingdom 🇬🇧🍓 ) Intended OOP for Day 8:

Time zone: BST (British Summer Time 🇬🇧)
→ EST = -5 hours, PST = -8 hours

Example:
Marin Cilic (CRO) vs Flavio Cobolli (ITA) [22] — 11:00 AM local (BST)
→ 6:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM PST

🚨Please Note: Unless a player is the FIRST match on their designated court, their start time is a mere “projection”. A match ahead could run longer or there could be weather delays. Patience will go a long way.

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety 16.0 (Wimbledon Day 8🍓)
•🇪🇸🎾POTD: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro “less than” 📉 9.0 total games won:

•🇺🇸 Pair: Ben Shelton “more than” 📈 33.5 games played:

━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Sonny’s 사니야 Safety 16.5 (Wimbledon Day 8🍓)
•🇷🇸🎾POTD: Novak Djokovic “more than” 📈 27.5 fantasy score:

•🇺🇸 Pair: Ben Shelton “more than” 📈 33.5 games played:

[dapper shadow]

• 🇪🇸🎾POTD: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro “less than” 📉 9.0 total games won:

• first off, props to jbm on the run she’s put together. being transparent, i came into wimbledon thinking samsonova might be one of the many early fallen tributes (ranked players getting bounced in week 1 chaos), but she’s handled her business rather comfortably. jbm’s shown she can absorb pace and redirect well, and her serve has looked strong in her own-right... but liudmila’s found a dark horse rhythm and level on serve. jbm in contrast is sitting at ~46% 2nd serve points won, and that’s where the pressure’s going to crack. samsonova will get enough clean looks on second serves to flip control of the match to her terms. jbm may stay competitive for stretches and might even ride some crowd momentum, but once liudmila finds her rhythm on return, it’s her terms. not jbm’s, not the crowd’s. look for liudmilla to be strong on serve and to put away any free 2nd serve point offerings on return.

•🇷🇸🎾POTD: Novak Djokovic “more than” 📈 27.5 fantasy score:

•hate him or love him he’s Mr. consistent, Mr. 24. even in a “down” season he’s still coasting at a level only 2 other guys (🇪🇸 🇮🇹) can sniff. outside of that weird second set against mueller (where he admitted to feeling a little off), he’s been sharp. not perfect but sharp, and that’s been more than enough.
adm is solid so no disrespect to him, but he’s had a shaky season. this is where the great and good separation starts though. in terms of value, if he drops a set, the number’s still possible. grass season as we all know by now is ace-friendly, and though not a serve-bot, his precision should see a comfortable number pile up if the match happens to run 4 or more. siding with greatness 🐐 tomorrow. the reminder with dan evans was enough to take note of his lines, but the value checks out here as well.

jessica was originally set as the POTD for the full pair, but was bumped. a pivot to novak fantasy was made to offer a playable replacement. still recovering from the 4th 🍺so a quieter rollout. roi sheet for full transparency attached. please dont tail blindly; in fact i highly encourage you to do your own research and if doubt or questions arise, fade. don’t let fomo be your motivation for hitting submit when reasoning and logic don’t intersect. riding with or not at all, have a blessed day and good luck on projections / lines.

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD Record: 3-3

[obsidian skiff]

Simple writeup for the PoTD

Sinner is an absolute machine and on an absolute TEAR so far this tournament. He's also shown that he can neutralize a servebots biggest weapon in his matchup vs Vukic, allowing only 3 aces and winning 42% of 1st serve returns. I also don't see Grigor finishing this match and I'm predicting a retirement from him in the 2nd set. He's retired in the last 4 Grand Slam tournaments in a row aswell as retiring from Dubai and Brisbane earlier this season. Sinner has also won the last 4 matchups vs Dimitrov with Grigor's last win over the Italian just under 5 years ago. At over a decade in age difference, it's only natural that Grigor will regress as Sinner progresses and grows as a player. I see this as an easy 3 set victory for Sinner at the bare minimum and could possibly see a 2nd set retirement from Grigor.

[dapper shadow]

tired. don’t know when the next shots are coming but im taking a long walk 🚶🏽‍♂️‍➡️. being transparent, i’ll be playing props personally but doubt i’ll attach my name to anything publicly until purpose, meaning, and output all align. hopefully hc szn but 🤷🏽‍♂️, so volatile these days. dual-sport so when one faucet clogs, i turn to the other for resources. have a blessed wimbledon,.. focus is shifting 🥊

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD Record: 3-4.

The retirement read on Grigor was spot on but happened too late.

Total Games: 41
Grigor Games Won: 15
Sinner Games Won: 26
Sinner Fantasy: 24.5

Just a reminder, retirements DO NOT get voided or rebooted.

Grigor retired at 6-3, 7-5, 2-2.
PrizePicks policy scores it as Sinner winning the remaining games to win the match.
Updated scoreline is 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 0-6, 0-6.
41 Total Games.

[obsidian skiff]

https://x.com/edgeaiapp/status/1942544859371638990?s=46&t=hquI3L-B9EAvncRIxNMm8w

edgeAI (@edgeAIapp)

No play for another hour or so. Courts are flooded and it’s still raining.

X · Jul 8, 2025, 11:22 AM

Amandine Hesse vs Leolia Jeanjean

Angela Fita Boluda vs Rebeka Masarova

Kaitlin Quevedo vs Oksana Selekhmeteva

[obsidian skiff]

No write up bc lazy. No PoTD either. Just a few lineups/plays that I like.

[obsidian skiff]

Late morning/Afternoon slip.

Again, I want to reiterate to not tail me or anybody blindly. There’s no predicting if these players will perform how we think they will in our head, if there’s an injury to be had or other conditions beyond our control. Do your own due diligence, tail smartly and manage your units correctly.

[muted cargo]

CASH IT

[obsidian skiff]

BANNNGGGGG

[obsidian skiff]

https://x.com/edgeAIapp/status/1943059729573408840

edgeAI (@edgeAIapp)

No more play today due to rain at the Newport ATP & WTA Challenger tournaments.

Matches below to resume on Thursday ⬇️

Tristan Schoolkate vs James McCabe

Alana Smith vs Arianne Hartono

Mitchell Krueger vs Antoine Ghibaudo

Also all the doubles matches.

X · Jul 9, 2025, 9:28 PM

This is odd for Schoolkate/McCabe to not resume. They still have 3 hours of sunlight left and it stopped raining.

[obsidian skiff]

https://x.com/edgeAIapp/status/1943072052346225019

edgeAI (@edgeAIapp)

Today’s suspended matches will resume in following order:

Schoolkate vs McCabe will resume after Zink - Mannarino match finishes (11am local time start)

Alana Smith vs Arianne Hortono will resume after Bolkvadze vs McNally match finishes. 11am local time start)

Mitchell

X · Jul 9, 2025, 10:17 PM

[obsidian skiff]

If Eubanks has a million haters I'm one of them. If he has one hater it's me. If he has 0 haters I have died. If the world is against Eubanks, I am with the world, if the world is for Eubanks, I am against the world.

[obsidian skiff]

No detailed writeup, Eubanks less than 19.5/19 Fantasy is the PoTD. Tomic is a shell of his former self due to injuries and off the court issues but I would still have the shell of Tomic's former self over Eubanks. He has been horrible as of late and has only won ONE match on grass in the past year with it being a victory over Milavsky; someone who had 0 grass court experience and was his 1st ever grass court match vs Eubanks. Tomic in 2 >>>>>

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk this lineup, Sho doublefaulted 3 times in the 2nd set, ending with 4 in total. Hooked at 20.5/21. Had he not DF the amount of times he did, he would've been cash. Sorry

[obsidian skiff]

Friday Order of Play

11:00am (local time) start.

A few players will have to play 2 matches in the same day.

Weather looks clear for tomorrow but it could change, they played a WTA doubles match indoors today so if there’s long delays they will have to do the same tomorrow.

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD w/ a lineup

Due to all the rain and delays, we still have alot of unfinished business to take care of with 3 lineups still active. All were shared here aswell.

[obsidian skiff]

If Eubanks has a million haters, I'm one of them. If he has one hater, it's me. If he has zero haters, I have died. If the world is against Eubanks, I am with the world, if the world is for Eubanks, I am against the world.

PoTD Record: 4-4

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD Record: 4-4-1

[obsidian skiff]

TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK

I made these last minute and on a whim, yes I did research into each picks but I wouldn’t recommend you overexpose like I do unless you have a big enough bankroll to play risky.

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk all 3 because of a Lajal 🪝 at 23.5/24. He struggled to generate aces, got broken in the 2nd set and simply should've played much better vs an unranked wildcard (rankings go up to like 2000+ by the way), who has only won ONE match on hard courts in his CAREER.

Tough night but it is what it is, no point in dwelling. Good example of why I emphasized to not overexpose like I do because it is high risk, high reward with all 3 slips anchoring off of one play. If you're a $5/$10 a lineup person, I highly suggest taking the plays I play and splitting them up into 2mans for security.

[dapper shadow]

ATP 250 - Mifel Tennis Open (Los Cabos, Mexico 🇲🇽)

Time Zone: Local Time = MDT (Mountain Daylight Time)
→ EST = +2 hours, PST = -1 hour

Example Match:
Hady HABIB (LBN) vs [7] Aleksandar KOVACEVIC (USA) — 6:00 PM local (MDT)
→ 8:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM PST

ATP 250 - Nordea Open (Bastad, Sweden 🇸🇪)

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Raphael COLLIGNON (BEL) vs (6) Luciano DARDERI (ITA) — Not before 2:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 8:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM PST

ATP 250 - EFG Swiss Open (Gstaad, Switzerland 🇨🇭)

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Kamil MAJCHRZAK (POL) vs Terence ATMANE (FRA) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 4:30 AM EST / 1:30 AM PST

WTA 250 - UniCredit Iasi Open (Iasi, Romania 🇷🇴)

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[WC] Miriam BULGARU (ROU) vs [6] Jil TEICHMANN (SUI) — 3:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 9:30 AM EST / 6:30 AM PST

WTA 250 - Hamburg Ladies Open (Hamburg, Germany 🇩🇪)

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[WC] Anna PETKOVIC (GER) vs Aleksandra KRUNIC (SRB) — 10:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 4:00 AM EST / 1:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

WTA 250 - Hamburg Ladies Open (Hamburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 2:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[Q] Maria TIMOFEEVA vs Kaja JUVAN (SIO) — 10:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 4:00 AM EST / 1:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - UniCredit Iasi Open (Iasi, Romania 🇷🇴) Day 2:

Time Zone: EEST (Eastern European Summer Time)
→ EST = -7 hours, PST = -10 hours

Example Match:
[WC] Patricia Maria TIG (ROU) vs Maria Lourdes CARLE (ARG) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 03:30 AM EST / 12:30 AM PST

ATP 250 - EFG Swiss Open (Gstaad, Switzerland🇨🇭) Day 2:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Juan Manuel CERUNDOLO (ARG) vs Jan-Lennard STRUFF (GER) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 4:30 AM EST / 1:30 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Nordea Open (Bastad, Sweden 🇸🇪) Day 2:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Sebastian OFNER (AUT)
vs [7] Damir DZUMHUR (BIH) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Mifel Tennis Open (Los Cabos, Mexico 🇲🇽) Day 2:

Time Zone: Local Time = MST (Mountain Standard Time)
→ EST = +3 hours, PST = + 0hours

Example Match: [5] Daniel ALTMAIER (GER) vs Mitchell KRUEGER (USA) — 6:00 PM local (MDT)
→ 9:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM PST

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s (사니야) Safety -
•🇫🇷🎾POTD: Lois Boisson “more than” 16.5 📈 fantasy score:

-it’s been a quiet/slow post-French Open for the newly top 60 ranked Boisson. she lost in the first round of wimbledon qualifying rounds, but there’s no shame in that.. each round of the wimbledon championships saw tributes (top ranked player) take early bows. she’s since put her clay shoes back on and should be eager to find her footing again pre-hc szn. i still don’t think her semi-final run at the French Open was a fluke.. on clay 🧱, her topspin and shot selection make her an uncomfortable draw for anyone and she should be plenty motivated to get back in the win column tomorrow… Julia though, is no slouch on clay in her own-right, but it’s the exact surface where Boisson’s play-style can frustrate someone like Julia. her topspin from deep positions pushes opponents off the baseline and forces them into uncomfortable, reactive patterns. i’m looking for her to impose this style of play early and to make Julia work for every point played. Line is soft as well so if df’s are kept down and game lines turn out favorable, it’s doable in 3 sets if needed.

•my personal pairing is attached (🥊 takes place Sunday, July 20th (midnight)), but i don’t mind waiting nor do i feel the need to play/use the app daily. whether you take the pair or just Boisson, have a blessed day and good luck on lines you play.

[dapper shadow]

Hamburg Ladies Open (Hamburg, Germany 🇩🇪) 🌧️Weather Update:
-ball kids are back, players making there way back to courts; play will resume for outer courts in the next 5-10mins

-7:03 AM EST

[dapper shadow]

ATP 250 - Nordea Open (Bastad, Sweden 🇸🇪)

All play for Tuesday, July 15th is cancelled. Ymer vs Botic and Garin vs Ugo will resume play Wednesday, July 16th. Filip vs Elmer and Navone vs TBV were already moved, but now we have final confirmation on the matches that were underway earlier in the day. Will have updated OOP’s when they are available.

🚨Please Note: UNLESS a tournament is cancelled in its entirety, there will be NO DNP’s. even if matches are unable to resume tomorrow (God-willing they are), they will continue to wait it out. Patience-Patience-Patience 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

🙏🏽✅Boisson - 하나님 감사합니다. nothing in play personally for wednesday matches. i do feel little cerundolo’s (juan manuel cerundolo) fantasy is in a good place(started at 13.0), but not enough to endorse with my own money. didn’t watch his match against struff so i rather be patient/safe and allow myself time to watch matches (spent most of the day waiting for boisson + monitoring Bastad). best of luck with lines tomorrow and have a blessed day.

WTA 250 - Hamburg Ladies Open (Hamburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 3:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[1] Ekaterina ALEXANDROVA vs [Q] Eva VEDDER (NED) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - UniCredit Iasi Open (Iasi, Romania 🇷🇴) Day 3:

Time Zone: EEST (Eastern European Summer Time)
→ EST = -7 hours, PST = -10 hours

Example Match:
Maja CHWALINSKA (POL) vs [6] Jil TEICHMANN (SUI) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 03:30 AM EST / 12:30 AM PST

ATP 250 - EFG Swiss Open (Gstaad, Switzerland🇨🇭) Day 4:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Kamil MAJCHRZAK (POL) vs [Q] Ignacio BUSE (PER) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 4:30 AM EST / 1:30 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Nordea Open (Bastad, Sweden 🇸🇪) Day 4:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[Q] Filip MISOLIC (AUT) vs Elmer MOLLER (DEN) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Mifel Tennis Open (Los Cabos, Mexico 🇲🇽) Day 4:

Time Zone: Local Time = MST (Mountain Standard Time)
→ EST = +3 hours, PST = + 0hours

Example Match:

Example Match:
[Q] Govind NANDA (USA) vs [3] Denis SHAPOVALOV (CAN)
→ 9:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM PST

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ WTA 250 - UniCredit Iasi Open weather update 🌧️:

•All play for Wednesday, July 16th has been suspended. Matches will resume (if suitable) tomorrow, July 17th. Ann Li vs Anna Siskova will be the only match played today.

Please note: There are NO DNP's for weather delays. UNLESS a tournament is cancelled in its entirety (highly unlikely; organizers would lose a ton of money), match times will simply be adjusted on lineups. annoying, sure, but this is what we sign up for when playing tennis projections. You cannot say "i did not know." these warnings are posted every time there are weather delays. If you are not a patient individual and weather delays frustrate you, I would kindly suggest you refrain from playing tennis lines in the future.

-1:25 PM EST

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ ATP 250 - Nordea Open (Bastad, Sweden 🇸🇪) weather update 🌧️:

•Play for Goffin vs Cerundolo is officially suspended until Thursday, July 17th. Will have the updated order of play when it is made available.

Again, same as above with Iasi, there are no DNP's for weather delays. play will resume as soon as conditions become suitable again.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s (사니야) Safety -
•🇨🇳🎾POTD: Yunchaokete Bu “less than” 14.0 📉 fantasy score:

-Bu played and won one of the more lower level (in terms of quality) tour matches of the season.. he came out on the right side of a 1st set tiebreak that had a combined 55 unforced errors.. set was literally won off of a double fault (lucky break for Bu. was 1-13 in tiebreaks in 2025 prior to winning this one). he was shaky on serve and was pushed quite a bit by an individual who makes his living on ITF’s (there’s no shame in that. the head scratch is directed towards a top 70 player struggling in this matchup). he’d need to clean things up in a hurry against a much more competent and in-form Nava who comes in with an extra days rest after making light work of Aleksandar Vukic. I’m going with the American 🇺🇸 here. i expect him to be strong on serve, and to not be passive in moments where Bu is clearly vulnerable. he’s not the type to dictate or take initiative when the moment calls for it and most of his points come from reacting, not creating. his forehand breaks down under pressure, and his second serve sits up like a dinner plate.
(over games is also a suitable replacement, but i am going with nava to win outright. doesn’t matter if he drops a set, or gets mowed down during one of them. he just needs to win outright)

•Personal pairing is the same as Boisson. Hawaiian kickboxer 🌺, but again, i do not mind the wait. Best of luck with your lineups however you end up playing things. whether you use Bu or not, let’s continue to be sharp and vigilant. have a blessed evening / night 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

WTA 250 - Hamburg Ladies Open (Hamburg, Germany 🇩🇪) Day 4:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Astra SHARMA (AUS) vs Viktoriya TOMOVA (BUL) — 11:00 AM local (CEST) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - UniCredit Iasi Open (Iasi, Romania 🇷🇴) Day 4:

Time Zone: EEST (Eastern European Summer Time)
→ EST = -7 hours, PST = -10 hours

Example Match:
[1] Elina AVANESYAN (ARM) vs Maria Lourdes CARLE (ARG) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 03:30 AM EST / 12:30 AM PST

ATP 250 - EFG Swiss Open (Gstaad, Switzerland🇨🇭) Day 5:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[7] Francisco COMESANA (ARG) vs Roberto CARBALLES BAENA (ESP) — 10:30 AM local (CEST)
→ 4:30 AM EST / 1:30 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Nordea Open (Bastad, Sweden 🇸🇪) Day 5:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[5] Camilo UGO CARABELLI (ARG) vs Botic VAN DE ZANDSCHULP (NED) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 5:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Mifel Tennis Open (Los Cabos, Mexico 🇲🇽) Day 5:

Time Zone: Local Time = MST (Mountain Standard Time)
→ EST = +3 hours, PST = + 0hours

Example Match:

OOP’s don’t come until much later. will update when made available.

[dapper shadow]

하나님께 영광 🙏🏽 Bu ✅ what a match. what a sweat… maybe my fav to-date… hawaiian kickboxer Sunday 🌺.

—
little activity update- i’ll be deep in davinci resolve over the next 48 hours editing for ufc 318, so I won’t be on discord much. please @/ping me directly if you have tennis projection questions. i’ll check notifications during breaks, but my phone will be on dnd otherwise. thank you for the grace in advance and best of luck with projections/lines that get played 🙏🏽.

[dapper shadow]

하나님께 영광 🙏🏽. see you all monday.

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s (사니야) Safety -
•🇨🇦🎾POTD: Victoria Mboko “more than” 14.0 📈 fantasy score:

-granted, she’ll be facing much more competent competition now that she’s solidifying herself on tour. the 18 year old mboko is back on hardcourts where she boasts a 41-16 record (not too shabby, regardless of level of competition). she’ll be making her Citi Open debut against a tough potapova, but she’ll be playing in her first match since picking up a hip injury in Berlin. the young and promising mboko will be a tough ask for potapova, who should be looking to work her way back into form after missing the last month or so on tour. victoria’s aggressive baseline game, athleticism, and court comfort could shine here, especially if potapova is still shaking off rust. i still expect a fight, as potapova always puts one up… but the opening lies in her need to regain form and confidence.

• Pair Rebecca Sramkova “more than” 📈 16.5 total games (2.25x): smaller reasoning here… maleckova playing in her home tournament should put up a decent fight. soft line, and don’t expect her to get blown out of the water tomorrow.
—
i am not the lisan-al gaib, nor do i have any aspirations of being one. please-please-please be vigilant by also looking into projections, players, and matchups yourself. if there’s even an inkling of doubt, or confusion, i would suggest watching from the bleachers. there’s no shame in seeing how things play out as opposed to placing due to fomo. best of luck with all projections and lineups submitted tomorrow. have a blessed day 🙏🏽.

WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Day 1:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
Matteo ARNALDI (ITA) vs Daniel ALTMAIER (GER) — 11:00 AM local (EST)
→ 11:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - Livesport Prague Open (PRAGUE, CZE 🇨🇿) Day 1:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[Q] Mai HONTAMA (JPN) vs [8] Alycia PARKS (USA) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Day 1:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
[7] Francisco COMESANA (ARG) vs Tristan BOYER (USA) — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag (Umag, Croatia 🇭🇷) Day 1:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
Carlos TABERNER (ESP) vs Pierre-Hugues HERBERT (FRA) — 16:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 10:30 AM EST / 07:30 AM PST

[obsidian skiff]

Overnight lineup for those still up and a late-morning lineup for tomorrow. No write up today. No PoTD

Like always, TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK - Do your own due diligence and research. Don't tail me blindly expecting a quick payout and come whining and crying when something doesn't go our way.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Weather Update 🌧️

Play has resumed for Center Court (Comesana vs Boyer). Court Kuchenmeister (Schevchenko vs Galan) should follow suit soon.

-10:30 AM EST

[dapper shadow]

🌧️WTA 250 - Livesport Prague Open (PRAGUE, CZE 🇨🇿) Day 1 🌧️:

all play is suspended. no play before 17:45 GMT - (1:45 PM EST. / 10:45 AM PST). courts are being prepped/dried. hopefully play resumes within the next 30-45 minutes.

please-please-please.. patience.. wanting to know the result of your line/projection is understandable, but there are NO DNP’s in tennis for rain delays. play will be resumed for all matches once weather permits.. whether that’s later today, or tomorrow. unless the tournament is cancelled in its entirety (extremely unlikely; tournament organizers would lose a ton of money), your lineup will not be DNP’d.

-13:30 EST.

[muted cargo]

@marble storm sorry for all that, unfortunately no one has patience lol

[dapper shadow]

하나님께 영광 🙏🏽. Mboko ✅.
3-for-3 on recent lineups/potd’s, but i’m pressing pause.
no drops tomorrow. no set return date.
the atmosphere’s extremely toxic, and I won’t trade my peace for picks.

WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Day 2:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
** [Q] Taylor TOWNSEND 💜(USA) vs Tatjana MARIA (GER)** — 11:00 AM local (EST)
→ 11:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - Livesport Prague Open (PRAGUE, CZE 🇨🇿) Day 2:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [WC] Laura SAMSON (CZE) vs [WC] Dominika SALKOVA (CZE)** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Day 2:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [Q] Yannick HANFMANN (GER) vs [WC] Lukas NEUMAYER (AUT)** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag (Umag, Croatia 🇭🇷) Day 2:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** Francesco PASSARO (ITA) vs [3] Camilo UGO CARABELLI (ARG)** — 16:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 10:30 AM EST / 07:30 AM PST

[obsidian skiff]

Spirit of full transparency. Comesana came with the brutal hook and Leylah Fernandez played the best tennis i’ve seen her play all year vs Joint who just came off a title win. Brutal.

Lineups for 7/22/25
Love the spots for all of these plays, mini write-ups for them below.

Ofner: The market is giving Struff too much credit, he's had mild success but the altitude in Kitzbuhel should benefit Ofner and give him the edge. Ofner wins, he covers.

Misolic: Same thing as above, Misolic has the serve that gets the edge in Kitzbuhel and is in better form than Etcheverry; the same person who has only won 1 first round match in the last 7 tournaments.

Noskova: I love you. Gasanova commits a heinous amount of unforced errors and double faults while Noskova is a grinder and has one of the best serves on tour up there with Rybakina and Zheng, should have plenty of ace upside to cover.

Giron: Gimme the American on home-soil with crowd support who has played in this event 4 times while this is Munar's first appearance and is playing on his least-desired surface.

Valentova: 16-2 on the season (Main Tour) with her only 2 losses being in Roland Garros vs the eventual winner, Coco Gauff and in Wimbledon vs Zakharova where it was Valentova's first time playing on grass iirc. Out of her 16 wins, she's won 12 of them in straight sets. Future star in the making.

Nakashima: Quinn is a dawg, credit when due; however Nakashima is simply much better than Quinn right now. Nakashima plays very calculated and almost always has more winners than unforced errors. Paired with his hold rate of 89% and winning 69% of service points, I don't see Quinn breaking Nakashima's elite serve.

[obsidian skiff]

_ just a subtle reminder for everyone eyeing Monfils tonight _

_ just a subtle reminder for everyone eyeing Monfils tonight _

[obsidian skiff]

Full transparency recap:

Ofner struggled. He had double the unforced errors to winners and only won 31% of his 2nd serves, down nearly 50% compared to his usual 60%. Losing formula everytime.

Noskova was terrible, even in a straight set win. Her opponent now has 32 double faults in 3 matches and is a W35/W50 merchant. Simple comparison is being a good G-League player and then expecting to drop a triple double on your 1st game in the NBA. Noskova should’ve dominated but she didn’t. It is what it is and we move.

Final recap: I gave out bad plays, it is what it is. Just like in tennis, you move on to the next point instead of dwelling on the last one.

[obsidian skiff]

On the brighter side, bang the 6x!

i can’t believe this is an update.

[obsidian skiff]

Rune will DNP.

https://x.com/mubadalacitidc/status/1947717530203918430?s=46&t=hquI3L-B9EAvncRIxNMm8w

Mubadala Citi DC Open (@mubadalacitidc)

Holger Rune has withdrawn from the tournament with a back injury. Corentin Moutet (LL) us replacing him against Alexandre Muller.

#MubadalaCitiDCOpen

X · Jul 22, 2025, 5:57 PM

[dapper shadow]

ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Day 3:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [Q] Yannick HANFMANN (GER) vs [2] Sebastian BAEZ (ARG) ** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag (Umag, Croatia 🇭🇷) Day 3:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [1] Francisco CERUNDOLO (ARG) vs Carlos TABERNER (ESP) ** — 16:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 10:30 AM EST / 07:30 AM PST

WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Day 3:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
** [Q] Yibing WU (CHN) vs [10] Alexei POPYRIN (AUS) ** — 11:00 AM local (EST)
→ 11:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - Livesport Prague Open (PRAGUE, CZE 🇨🇿) Day 3:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** Tereza VALENTOVA (CZE)
[2] Rebecca SRAMKOVA (SVK) ** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

strong leans / bankroll builder

•🇮🇹🎾 Flavio Cobolli “less than” 19.0 📉 fantasy score:
-prefacing with cobolli is the better player outright.. however the better player doesn’t always win- especially when said player has been traveling countries/continents nonstop AND playing grueling matches over the last 14+ days. cobolli’s coming off a QF appearance at Wimbledon + a 5 day-stay in Bari, Italy for the Hopman cup. he’ll be coming in with only 48 hrs of rest for his first match of the US hc szn. it should be a slow-start and a bit of an adjustment for him as the US-air offers a vastly different hitting experience compared to Euro-air. this is the opening a chaotic player Yoshi can absolutely take advantage of. he’s a loose gasket that could implode at any moment, but when healthy, fit, and in the right-mind, he can put on a pesky and annoying game of cat and mouse. don’t expect Yoshi to win outright — though that’d be great — but this line is so high, it requires a clean straights win… don’t see that happening. i expect a fatigued cobolli to start slow and have to adjust to conditions. Yoshi is coming off an impressive win against Brooksby and should have plenty of confidence going into tomorrow’s match. with reasonable game-lines, cobolli will go under this line if yoshi is able to take a set.

•🇮🇹🎾 Lorenzo Sonego “more than” 2.0 breakpoints won:
-it’s actually a gift/blessing that Arnaldi is still able to be in the capital city. him being able to save 4 match points and then proceed to break Altmaier when he was serving for the match to extend the 3rd to a tiebreak was impressive to say the least.. but he’d need to clean his game up quite a bit if he wants to see the next round. Sonego is the outright better player in this matchup and i do expect him to win outright, but instead elect for breakpoints here due to the soft line and push potential. Sonego is diamond-opal level catcher (in terms of ace-allowance - low ace against % (shoutout overshell 🐚)), which allows him to work his way into rallies and most return games. he’s a tier below returners id rank high in terms of actually converting breakpoints and winning return games, but i’m not asking for him to look like alcaraz against a sinner or djokovic, a medvedev against a nadal, but simply himself against a soft-second-serving arnaldi. if he can stay true to that 32-33 return points won / break conversion percentage, this line should push at worst.. especially if we get 3 longer sets like i expect.

please do your own research. fact-check my reasonings and if even an inkling of doubt comes up when you cross-reference, fade. there is no shame at all in electing to see how things pan out as opposed to placing a lineup you don’t trust out of fomo. whether you’ve got on italian 🇮🇹 jerseys or not tomorrow, have a blessed day and good luck with whatever you hit submit on

[obsidian skiff]

Lineups for 7/23/25
Sramkova: Let's face it, Valentova is a future star. Currently she is now 17-2 on the main tour season with 13 of them being won in straight sets. (76%) - Outside of Wimbledon (first ever appearance), the last time she dropped more than 11 games to an opponent was vs Coco Gauff at Roland Garros where she received one of her two losses. When comparing her 16 winners to only 14 unforced errors in her 6-2, 6-0 win over Ito vs Sramkova struggling vs a #500 in a triple set match with 54 unforced errors, it's hard to see any outcome besides a straight set win by the rising junior in Valentova.

Misolic: Zandschulp isnt scamming another match. Jarry played absolutely horrible but BDZ was right there with him in terms of bad play. Double the errors to winners, 10 double faults (isn't he suppose to be a servebot?) and to cap it off, he took a medical timeout with a left leg/thigh injury late in the match. I trust my guy in Misolic with a 48-16 (34-10 on clay) record this season and 2 clay title wins to take advantage of a physically drained BDZ and win.

Bouzkova: Stefanini is horrible. Even though she won in straight sets, she only won 35% of 2nd serves, 6 double faults and got broken 4 times out of 12 opportunities. Bouzkova has the superior serve by a mile and there's not much more to say about this. Expect Bouzkova to break and break early, wouldn't be surprised to see another bagel.

Lehecka: Svajda has been playing really well, props to him and respect is given when due. Jiri is just on a different level and should be seeking to regain his form and momentum here in the coming weeks leading up to the US Open. On these fast DC courts with his monstrous serve, better flat strokes and better return prowess, he shouldn't struggle at all with Svajda.

Kopriva: Probably the riskiest play I have out tonight but I'll back Kopriva who has won a clay title this year and has taken out the likes of Baez, Darderi, Comesana, Cobolli, Nava and company in his clay career. Compare that to Droguet who just recently won his first ever main card draw, I'l take the experience in Kopriva in this matchup.

Yunchaokete: Goffin in his match vs Bu went 1/7 (14%) on breakpoint conversions. Bu is now going to face one of the most elite returners on tour in De Minaur who in the last 52 weeks has converted 46% of BPs in 63 matches, leading the ATP Top #50. All De Minaur has to do is win in straight sets with a 1 break lead in each and Bu should go less on his projection without a sweat.

[dapper shadow]

🌧️WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Weather Update🌧️
-matches are briefly paused due to scattered showers that have popped up in DC. hopefully it passes soon, just a brief delay for the time being.

-play has returned (11:52 AM EST)

[dapper shadow]

pre-caking. sonego tied the projection; cobolli will more than likely go over = a loss. nishioka has the mental of a child and is self imploding on serve.

[dapper shadow]

officially. wrong read, plain and simple. we move.

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Day 4:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
** [8] Danil MEDVEDEV vs [Q] Yibing WU (CHN) ** — 11:00 AM local (EST)
→ 11:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - Livesport Prague Open (PRAGUE, CZE 🇨🇿) Day 4:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [LL] Jessika PONCHET (FRA)
Tereza VALENTOVA (CZE) ** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Day 4:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [6] Arthur RINDERKNECH (FRA) vs Yannick HANFMANN (GER) ** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag (Umag, Croatia 🇭🇷) Day 4:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [Q] Pablo LLAMAS RUIZ (ESP) vs [3] Camilo UGO CARABELLI (ARG) ** — 16:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 10:30 AM EST / 07:30 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s (사니야) Safety -
•🇺🇸🎾POTD: Sofia Kenin “less than” 4.0 breakpoints won:
-sonny loves taylor townsend… true.
this is a very good projection/line….
also very true.
it’s a revisited potd from Wimbledon in fact.. saying all of that, i am not too blind to admit that Sofia is the better overall player of the 2,.. but tomorrow, we don’t need taytay to be perfect in all aspects of the game. we simply need her to be smart and steady on serve, which she is more than capable of doing. in fact, her serve %’s are up there with some of the stronger serves on the wta tour. kenin will again prove to be a challenge for taylor, but her poor ace-allowance % (paired with taylor’s strong hold statistics) will be a glaring hole that should get taylor out of enough trouble to not give up 5 breakpoints to kenin. ultimately trusting taylor to stay disciplined, but be aware, in a drawn-out 3-setter, 1 or 2 games could— swing this either way.

[dapper shadow]

go ahead ❌ that italian pair, boo if you that mad brudda 😡.
we not hiding. we walking out again tmr w/ taytay. kenin gon’ have to earn all 5 baby 🥊🇺🇸. TAYTAY A GO BOOM!

[dapper shadow]

PLEASE READ THROUGH THE REASONING + STATS BEFORE YOU EVEN THINK ABOUT ADDING THE PROP TO YOUR LINEUP. you have— to know what you’re putting money on.. it literally makes no sense not to. if the reasoning + data do not make sense to you, simply fade. ill have my townsend gear on, no shame if you dont. have a blessed day and good luck with whatever you choose to lock in 🙏🏽 🫡.

[obsidian skiff]

Full transparency like always. Not even mad about Misolic considering the bs Bouzkova was pulling so that lineup was dead from the jump. Kopriva got bodied, nothing else I can say abt it.

No write up tonight

[dapper shadow]

🌧️ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Weather Update 🌧️

•Tarps are down. Officially no play before 19:30 local time ( 1:30 PM EST / 10:30 AM PST). will continue to update this thread periodically

- THERE ARE NO DNP’S FOR WEATHER DELAYS IN TENNIS . play will resume when weather permits… even if that’s tomorrow. your lineup will simply update to reflect the change.

[dapper shadow]

Blessed Man Forever. 하나님께 영광 🙏🏽

WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Day 5:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
** Emma RADUCANU (GBR) vs
[WC] Maria SAKKARI (GRE) ** — 12:00 PM local (EST)
→ 12:00 PM EST / 09:00 AM PST

—

WTA 250 - Livesport Prague Open (PRAGUE, CZE 🇨🇿) Day 5:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [4] Xinyu WANG (CHN)
Sara BEJLEK (CZE) ** — 11:00 AM local (CEST)
→ 05:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM PST

ATP 250 - Generali Open (Kitzbuhel, Austria 🇦🇹) Day 5:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [6] Arthur RINDERKNECH (FRA) vs [SE] Arthur Cazaux (FRA) ** — Not Before 12:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 06:30 AM EST / 03:30 AM PST

—

ATP 250 - Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag (Umag, Croatia 🇭🇷) Day 5:

Time Zone: CEST (Central European Summer Time)
→ EST = -6 hours, PST = -9 hours

Example Match:
** [3] Camilo UGO CARABELLI (ARG) vs [2] Luciano DARDERI (ITA) ** — Not Before 18:30 PM local (CEST)
→ 12:30 PM EST / 09:30 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

Sonny’s (사니야) Safety -
•🇺🇸🎾POTD: Ben Shelton “more than” 23.5 games played:
-not entirely sure diallo was himself yesterday, but it doesn’t matter. ben has historically played his best in slams, but he’s been serving at an absolute absurd clip in D.C.. similar story for BigFoe who seems to flip the switch in his game once we reach US HC’s… following his public belting of cobolli, Tiafoe now joins “Andre Agassi and Alexander Zverev as the only men this century to reach the Washington quarters in four consecutive years”. not-too-shabby.. Friday night, DC stars ⭐️(Kevin Durant already made an appearance to see Venus) should be out, and these two should put on a fun-one for the fans. Shelton in 3 fun back-and-forth sets.

went out last night so this reasoning isn’t as technical/stat-based. please do your own research and cross-reference prior to hitting submit. you should know what you’re putting money on and what said projection needs “to get there”.

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP 500 - Mubadala Citi DC Open (WASHINGTON, D.C., USA 🇺🇸) Weather Update:

•isolated showers + lightning reports have suspended play momentarily. hopefully it passes soon.
No Play Before 6:00 PM EST / 3:00 PM PST.

[dapper shadow]

tough beat.. we move. toronto masters next week; back for that 💪🏽.

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP Montreal/Toronto Masters- National Bank Open (Toronto/Montreal, CAN 🇨🇦) Day 2:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
** Ethan QUINN (USA) vs Yoshihito NISHIOKA (JPN) ** — 11:00 AM local (EST)
→ 11:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

WTA/ATP Montreal /Toronto Masters- National Bank Open (Toronto/Montreal, CAN 🇨🇦) Day 3:

Time Zone: EST (Eastern Standard Time)
→ PST = -3 hours

Example Match:
** [Q] Emilio NAVA (USA) vs [17] Ugo HUMBERT (FRA)** — 11:00 AM local (EST)
→ 11:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM PST

[dapper shadow]

•🇨🇿 Tomas Machac “less than” 📉 1.5 breakpoints won:

•🇺🇸Hailey Baptiste “less than” 📉 2.0 breakpoints won:

-both are high risk, high reward. temperatures will be high in both montreal and toronto meaning courts should be baking. keeping it simple and trusting the conditions + the big-servers / big-guns.

please tail responsibly.

[obsidian skiff]

Paolini won 6-2 1st set, up 4-1 2nd set and should’ve ended it 6-2 but instead she sells a 40-15 lead in back to back games to not break Ito and then immediately get broken by Ito.

4-1 to 5-7. Unbelievable.

[dapper shadow]

nice 🏎️

[dapper shadow]

사니POTD -
🇺🇸🎾Taylor Fritz “more than” 📈 13.0 total games won:

-posting early as it might get pulled.. the push potential here is just too good to pass up. this should— be the night match on centre court 🇨🇦 and fritz was just pushed by rcb. diallo being backed by the home crowd in toronto should push at least 1 set long, and could very much-so win one outright. have fritz as the outright winner though so i elect for total games won here.

please tail responsibly.

[obsidian skiff]

Kostyuk Total Games Won: 2
Total Games: 14
Rybakina Fantasy: 25.5
Rybakina Total Total Games Won: 12
Rybakina Break Points: 3

Reminder that PrizePicks does NOT reboot retirements.

[obsidian skiff]

I’ll take a push over chalk anyday but Scamelsen sold the tiebreaker 😀

[obsidian skiff]

Full Disclaimer: I hate Challenger events so I don’t have much faith in this

[obsidian skiff]

Watanuki went 0/10 on BPs. Not much more I can say or do about a piss poor performance like that.

Schoolkate was a bad read and that’s on me. Colt looked horrible recently and has been getting dogwalked but I guess he’s finally over his hangover in Cabo and is back on business.

[obsidian skiff]

If Masarova serves it out and holds, we break even

[obsidian skiff]

Mboko is on fire but this is her first QF appearance - Rybakina has been to 10 alone in the 1000s. Her ball striking and serve should prove to be too much vs Mboko who hasn’t really gone up against comp. (Gauff is not a good striker, argue with a wall)

We are in the midst of an Osaka Renaissance with the trial coaching of Wiktorowski (former coach of Swiatek). Her usual sporadic inconsistencies on serve have all but vanished and her serve is that much more lethal. If she’s capable of staying in the right mental space which I believe she should, she shouldn’t leave any room for Tauson to breath.

[obsidian skiff]

Zverev's inconsistency and incapability to win dominantly vs Khachanov's baseline grinding makes me believe we should see atleast one tiebreaker if not a triple set match here. Push at worst projection imo.

Ben Scamton isn't scamming another match. This is Fritz's tournament to lose. Defeating Shelton would push him to the Finals in which he either faces a Khachanov that has yet to make it to the Finals of any event this season or Zverev who he has defeated the last 5 meetings in a row. Motivation is there, form is there, serve is there, all he has to do is beat a Shelton who has shown lapses in confidence in his matchups vs Nakashima and Cobolli. (His win vs Old Man Mannarino and De Minaur aren't impressive. Minaur is 0-10 vs Top 10 opponents and has built a name off having no game or weapons. Only long rallies in hopes his opponents commit errors.)

[obsidian skiff]

Elena Rybakina: The 6-1 Curse’s favorite victim.

[obsidian skiff]

Fils/Brooksby Projections will DNP

[obsidian skiff]

The 6-1 Curse IS A REAL THING PEOPLE. ANOTHER EXAMPLE.

[obsidian skiff]

Goffin beat Alcaraz earlier this year and then proceeds to get smacked around by Baez who is WINLESS on hard court matches this season and only has 2 wins in the past 365 days.

Unbelievable.

[obsidian skiff]

The 6-1 curse strikes again

[obsidian skiff]

Reminder that Last 5 isn’t always reliable. These stats for Sinner are from Wimbledon where it was a Best of 5 set format where it results in higher fantasies/total game projections. We’re now back to Best of 3 sets, keep that in mind.

Don’t be a L5 demon.

[obsidian skiff]

The 6-1 curse strikes twice in the same day

[obsidian skiff]

6-1

[obsidian skiff]

PrizePicks yall sum sharp mfers 💀

[obsidian skiff]

Running the pair back since Daria chalked, I like the 2 a lot

[obsidian skiff]

Reminder since there seems to be a lot of confusion in chat.
The 3rd set in Doubles is a SUPER TIEBREAKER -- NOT a regular 3rd set format. Meaning that the 3rd set only counts for 1 game and 1 set. Similiar to the tiebreakers we would get if it's at 6-6 in a set, that's what the 3rd set will be but it'll go to 10, win by 2 instead of the regular 7 win by 2.

[obsidian skiff]

https://x.com/edgeaiapp/status/1955367421067526145?s=46&t=hquI3L-B9EAvncRIxNMm8w

edgeAI (@edgeAIapp)

Jakub Mensik retired at 2-6, 1-2* down vs Luca Nardi.

Couldn’t continue due to an illness.

X · Aug 12, 2025, 8:34 PM

[obsidian skiff]

Things to keep in mind ladies n gents

as always i’ll be providing updates throughout the day

Sinner/Alcaraz are going to battle. In the 9 times they’ve faced eachother on non-clay courts, it has always gone to a 3/5 set match or has always featured 1 tiebreak. Both of these competitors are far too talented to get moped in straight sets and frankly the projection should be higher in my opinion. Lots of value here and I believe you’ll always make money taking these two over games everytime they play more often than not.

Cazaux/Lajal, both great young players with good serves and better ground strokes. On a cool day in New York with average humidity on US Hard courts, I expect lots of game exchanging and minimal breaks with atleast one tiebreak.

Hsu/Passaro is value. Hsu with a 21-12 record on hard courts this year is going up vs an italian clay rat Passaro who’s only won 6 matches on hard courts out of 11 in the past 52 weeks. Compared to his 31-15 record on clay, it’s clear what surface he’s comfortable on and what he’s not. Gimme Hsu

[obsidian skiff]

Reminder that updates are now in #🎾┃tennis-news-and-updates

[obsidian skiff]

@craggy reef

[obsidian skiff]

Muller beat one of the best up and coming prospects in Blanch while Perricard is having his worst season to date and dropped a 2-6 set vs clay rat Pedro Martinez. Perricard should not be the favorite in this match at all.

Munar leads the hard courts H2H at 1-0 and just recently beat Bellucci who has one of the more lethal serves when it’s on. I like Munar’s form and momentum heading into this match.

Navone is a clay rat. Although it’s a free falling form Tsitsipas, Yunchaokete dismantled him in straight sets. Again, recent form and momentum is calling me to back Yunchaokete.

Baez ruined me when he won his first hard court match all year vs Goffin. Botic is a far better player than Goffin and I’ll fade the clay rat Baez again.

[dapper shadow]

😤US Open Day 1

•Ena Shibahara “less than 📉” 7.5 total games won:
-a combination of Emma being in solid form since the start of the US swing and Shibahara being mainly a doubles player. court feel / sense + net touch will still be there for her (Shibahara) but i think Emma should be the much better all-around player and expect her to break Ena down with time and consistency. was juggling between total games played, but elect for Shibahara games won. something like 7-5, 6-2 clears, but don’t expect it to be that— tight.

•Ethan Quinn “more than 📈” 38.5 total games:
-Jerome didn’t drop a set all through qualifying.. impressive.. he’s got a solid serve and an aggressive play-style that should— get him out of tight games. similar situation for Ethan, but i have him (Ethan) winning outright. have this going 4+ sets and in lieu of sweating out a possible 5-setter, i’ll just elect for total games played. could see a tiebreak or 2 in this one. something like 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 gets us home (simply an example so you can also understand).

•Lulu Sun “more than 📈” 14.0 fantasy score:
-I have Lulu winning outright here and the fs line is softer, allowing for it to ✅ despite 3 possible tight sets (assuming lulu doesn’t end up in line at Camila’s bakery in a set (does not drop a set badly)). i think lulu has the advantage as the southpaw here + she should be able to hit through camila. she’s (camilla) gritty, but Lulu gets it done in 3.

it’s day 1 so play responsibly if you do-so and take each reasoning into account. blindly tailing and doing zero cross-referencing is not responsibly playing.

[obsidian skiff]

40% boost

[dapper shadow]

하나님께 영광 🩶.. let’s keep moving.

[dapper shadow]

US Open 🎾 40% payout boost

•Taylor Townsend “more than 📈” 14.0 fantasy score:
-taytay’s having a solid NA swing. not just on the doubles side (your world #1 doubles player as of July 28th 🩶), but she’s also been able to string together some solid runs on the singles side. Ruzic is young and also having a solid NA swing herself, but i’m going with Taylor to get it done here. Her style of play is just so unconventional and unorthodox that when it all “clicks”, it can frustrate the opposition at the other side of the net. pairing that with some extra confidence from the home 🇺🇸 crowd. let’s go Taylor.

•Brandon Nakashima “less than 📉” 3.5 breakpoints won:
-2 components here. Jerome looked (slowed down a bit at the tail-end of the match but still got it done) lethal on serve against Ethan yesterday. by the time he was up 2 sets to 0, he’d won 26/28 1st serve points (93%).. Naka will— have 2 days to recover from his 5 set war with Jasper, but if Kym can replicate the form he had on serve against Ethan, Brandon will be in for another long one. although Naka’s much more stable than Ethan from the baseline, i’ll still be looking and expecting Jerome to be a tough cookie to crack on serve. could and should see a tiebreak or two in this one.

please don’t blind-tail; take reasoning into account. cross-reference / fact check what I am saying. if something seems off, fade me. playing out of fomo or not knowing what you’re hitting submit on with your own money is not playing responsibly.

There’s a 2 day wait for Nakashima, but after watching both Quinn vs Kym / Nakashima vs Dejong, I’d already told myself i would dabble with this line if it was offered in the 4 range. if you don’t like waiting, feel free to take 1 and go.

[obsidian skiff]

https://prizepicks.onelink.me/gCQS/shareEntry?entryId=5f81e484870c136d76a31418d3c7dfb1&origin=

[obsidian skiff]

Everything i'm running for tomorrow. Short writeups for each play coming soon. Wanted to preface aswell, if you don't know Tennis, DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY. Use me as a 2nd opinion if anything. If you tail me, you are tailing at your own risk. I'm not the player on the tennis courts we are putting money on. Don't cry to me if someone doesn't perform as expected and something chalks. All of my plays are backed by stats and years worth of ball knowledge.

DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY, DONT CRY IF SOMETHING CHALKS

[obsidian skiff]

FIRST LINEUP OF THE DAY BANGS IN A 5 SET THRILLER UPSET VICTORY BY THE SWISS DOG, LEANDRO REIDI!

READ THE WRITEUPS AND WEEP, I CALLED ALL OF THEM PERFECTLY!

[obsidian skiff]

SASCHA ZVEREV!!! Domination in straight sets to cash the SECOND lineup of the day!

READ THE WRITEUPS AND WEEP, CALLED ALL MATCHES PERFECTLY ONCE AGAIN!

[obsidian skiff]

ALEX “DEMON” DE MINAUR PROVES WHY HE IS AMONG THE UPPER ECHELON OF RETURNERS IN THE GAME OF TENNIS!

CASH THE THIRD LINEUP OF THE DAY!

[obsidian skiff]

Lys less than 3.5BPW ✅

Cerundolo less than 5.5BPW ✅

Sinner less than 30.5TG ✅

Harold less than 9.5TGW ✅

Schoolkate less than 2.5BPW ✅

Minaur less than 18.5TGW ✅

Zverev less than 19.5TGW ✅

Gauff more than 4BPW ✅

Anisimova more than 4.5BPW ❌

8/9 Plays hit, 3/4 lineups hit and we were only one off from a complete sweep. Great day nonetheless.

[obsidian skiff]

Everything i'm running for tomorrow. Short writeups for each play coming soon. Wanted to preface aswell, if you don't know Tennis, DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY. Use me as a 2nd opinion if anything. If you tail me, you are tailing at your own risk. I'm not the player on the tennis courts we are putting money on. Don't cry to me if someone doesn't perform as expected and something chalks. All of my plays are backed by stats and years worth of ball knowledge.

DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY, DONT CRY IF SOMETHING CHALKS

[obsidian skiff]

Do y'all read/care about these writeups? Takes quite a bit of time to do so and wanted to know if it was worth continuing or not.

[obsidian skiff]

Full transparency update:

• Not upset about the Demon slip bc well, it's 6 demons lol.
• Andreeva/Townsend hooked by one game,
• Rybakina found a new gear we've yet to see in recent matches with pinpoint precision, power and great variety in her game.
• The script for Mannarino/Shelton was going just as planned before Shelton had to unfortunately retire due to a shoulder injury,
• Bucsa/Mertens, no words, just speechless.
• In probably one of the biggest upsets of the tournament so far, Tiafoe lost on home soil vs Struff who came from qualifiers in straight sets with his worst serving performance yet.

On a different note:

• Djokovic cashed BPs in a script where I predicted he would drop a set which would give him ample opportunities to cash.
• Machac showed why when he's healthy, he's still a force to be reckoned with.
• Mannarino cashed 1.5BPs due to Shelton doing showman activities, as predicted.
• Krejcikova and Navarro saw various momentum shifts, cultivating into a third set, as predicted.
• Kym's serve is elite and he stole the 2nd set from Fritz in a 11-9 tiebreaker by the thinnest of margins to cash 3.5TS, as predicted.
• Townsend played phenomal (I didn't predict her winning though) which gave Andreeva more service games in which she also cashed 2.5DFs, as predicted.

Overall: Two lineups went 2/3, 1 went 2/6, 1 went 4/6 in which we got a refund essentially with an overall play hit rate of 6/13. Horrible day with too many shocking upsets.

[obsidian skiff]

Everything i'm running for tomorrow. Short writeups for each play coming soon. Wanted to preface aswell, if you don't know Tennis, DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY. Use me as a 2nd opinion if anything. If you tail me, you are tailing at your own risk. I'm not the player on the tennis courts we are putting money on. Don't cry to me if someone doesn't perform as expected and something chalks. All of my plays are backed by stats and years worth of ball knowledge.

DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY, DONT CRY IF SOMETHING CHALKS

No writeups/reasoning today, going to be a busy day so won’t have time. Good luck!

[obsidian skiff]

Late writeups but it's better than none at all!

[dapper shadow]

Im leaving here with something

-Looking to buildup some bankroll so running two different iterations that should— turn out to hedge each other. I like the Iga “less than” 22.0 fs line / Bucsa “less than” 6.0 total games won more than the other. Not a super detailed writeup since they more so hedge each other out. At-least one should cash so I would not run one without the other. I’d fade this go around if concerned/worried. It’s simply to buildup bankroll and if you are unfamiliar with how hedging works please see below.

Examples:
Iga Swiatek “less than 📉” 22.0 fantasy score / Iga Swiatek “less than 📉” 19.5 total games played:

-If Kalinskaya competes, and makes the match close with Iga, she will more than likely go under 22.0 fantasy score. 6-4, 6-4 (assuming Iga keeps normal pace on serve (i.e. does not turn into isner with aces)), she would go under 22.0 fs, but over 19.5 total games. This would leave us relying on one of the Sabalenka pairs, which I like and think both should cash.

Please do-know that there is a risk that comes with this. Though I think one should— cash, there is still a world where neither could. Tail responsibly and look at these as they are…bankroll builders, nothing more, nothing less.

[obsidian skiff]

Full Transparency Recap:

The Bad

• Osaka let her foot off the gas and lost 2nd set 4-6 after domination in the 1st. We push for subtle profit but should've been way more.
• I expected Sinner to win but not to drop a set. Had this been won in straight sets, we would've been fine but Shapo gave him too many opportunities for BPs in 4 sets.
• Minaur dropped a set vs Altmaier but dominated the rest of the way and ended with a fatigued Altmaier retiring.
• I hope Sascha Zverev is at my funeral so he can let me down one last time.

The Good

• Bublik cleared his projection and won his matchup vs Tommy Paul as expected.
• Andreeva/Shnaider are still one of the premiere WTA doubles teams.
• Munar dominates Bergs ins traight sets.
• Noskova and Muchova had momentum swings that resulted with Noskova hitting her projection.
• Musetti continues to have the best post-Wimbledon hard court swing of his career.

Overall
Two lineups pushed for a 3x
One lineup got hooked
One had no chance.
Okay day, not great, not amazing, but okay.

[obsidian skiff]

Everything i'm running for tomorrow. Short writeups for each play coming soon. Wanted to preface aswell, if you don't know Tennis, DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY. Use me as a 2nd opinion if anything. If you tail me, you are tailing at your own risk. I'm not the player on the tennis courts we are putting money on. Don't cry to me if someone doesn't perform as expected and something chalks. All of my plays are backed by stats and years worth of ball knowledge.

DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY, DONT CRY IF SOMETHING CHALKS

Writeups/reasonings coming out later in the day when I have time

[dapper shadow]

Taylor Fritz “more than” 21.0 total games won:
-Machac when healthy is legit, and he’s shown that not just this tourney but every time he plays Taylor. I think this line really hinges on his fitness and how he handles the NY crowd 🇺🇸. If he’s good, this match goes long. I still have Fritz winning, but I expect him to leak a set (maybe two) before closing.

Elena Rybakina “more than” 17.5/18.0 fantasy score:
-Ryba looks scary right now… like US Open champ scary. Emma never even had a chance to settle last round, she was basically unplayable. Vondrousova’s had a solid run but if Ryba keeps this form it’s just too much.

Barbora Krejcikova “more than” 22.5 total games:
-Both Krej and TayTay have been strong all swing. I see Krej pulling it out, but TayTay fights enough to make it sweaty. Over hits if Townsend can force a breaker or grab a set.

Jan-Lenard Struff “less than” 15.5 total games won:
-Struff’s played better than expected this run, but Novak always finds the cracks. I think Struff has some moments, maybe even pushes a set close, but his lack of variety gets exposed once Novak settles in 🐐.

[obsidian skiff]

For tmrw

[dapper shadow]

Will get reasonings typed up

Julia Grabher “more than” 16.0 fantasy score:

-HC (harcourt) szn’s been forgettable, but Julia’s clay game is still solid. solid topspin, patience, and the ability to extend rallies. She also just beat Vandewinkel a few weeks back en route to a WTA 125 final on clay, and I like her to lean on that matchup edge here. 16 FS is low enough that even a 3-set grinder clears.

Jannik Sinner “less than” 8.5 aces:

– Two things stand out:

1. Jannik’s first serve % has dipped this tournament despite clean scorelines. He hasn’t been bombing aces, more so relying on his baseline dominance.
2. Bublik’s ace-against rate is sneaky good — he’s long, reads patterns well, and neutralizes pace once he locks in.
   Unless this turns into a 5-set marathon, I don’t see Jannik stacking 9+.

Beatriz Haddad Maia “less than” 2.5 aces:

– Bea’s lefty serve is all about placement, not power. On slower (playing slower than other NA HC’s) USO hard courts, she’s not hitting through many people let alone Anisimova. Similar to the Bublik explanation, she’s tall but quick which leads me to play the “less than” here. She might sneak one or two, but 3 feels a bit high for her.

Naomi Osaka “more than” 12.0 total games won:

– Coco’s serve still looks shaky under pressure.. even vs Frech she flashed double fault issues. Naomi’s quietly been climbing back, and her serving form has been strong all tournament. If Coco’s serve collapses like it has been, Naomi should push this deep. I see a 3-set battle or a tight 2-setter where 12 games is definitely in play.

Coco Gauff “more than” 4.5 breakpoints won :

-I have Naomi outright, but I don’t think she does it without a bit of fight from coco. though her serve is vulnerable, her return game remains one of the best in the game (who’s that sliding backhand remind you of Mr. Eubanks 👀? iykyk). If this match goes 3 sets (and it feels like it will), 5+ BPs won is very realistic.

Lorenzo Musetti “more than” 4.5 breakpoints won:

Musetti’s not a natural HC guy, but the USO surface is playing slower this year, which helps him extend rallies and force errors. Munar’s serve is one of the weaker ones left in the draw.. low ace count, predictable patterns, which plays straight into Lorenzo’s ability to pressure on return. If Munar is able to nab a set and this stretches 4+ sets, it’s hard to see Lorenzo not getting 5+ BP’s

[dapper shadow]

only prop that doesn’t turn ✅ is the coco demon 🥀. great day outside of that as normal lines go 4 for 4 with 1 tied projection.

[obsidian skiff]

how did u lose vs a challenger merchant 💔

[obsidian skiff]

• andreeva/shnaider hold 80% on hard courts, elite service games
• auntie venus, it’s time for the retirement home
• novak is fritz’s daddy

[dapper shadow]

Naomi Osaka “more than 📈” 12.5 total games won:

-Naomi has been looking really strong on HC’s as of late. Her easy dispatching of coco was just further evidence of her resurgence. Ball striking is clean and her demeanor on court even when things seem tight has been very good. Her and Muchova have a solid rap-sheet with one-another with their most recent clash taking place during the AO earlier this year where Naomi came back to win in 3 with a brilliant effort after dropping the 1st 1-6. I think we get another close and competitive match here. I have Naomi winning outright and claiming her spot in the semifinals, but Muchova has proven and shown that she can trouble Naomi with her variety. I think Muchova can definitely push a set long or win one outright. playing the “more than” 12.5 games here for that reason. tightly contested 2 setter with at least one set running long or a 3 set barn burner gets the trick done here.

Lorenzo Musetti “less than 📉” 12.5 total games won:

-Musetti has been playing some jaw dropping tennis this past week. Prior to it, he’d only won one match post Roland-Garros, so the run comes at a bit of a surprise and i think it ends here as he meets his fellow countryman across the net. Sinner looked a bit vulnerable in his matchup with Shapo, but he tightened the reins against Bublik and left him with little room to breathe. simply what great players do as draws go on and I think he continues this level. Unless Sinner has a sudden drop in fitness or moment of lapse, i don’t see Musetti being much of a problem. Feels like Sinner gets this done in straights.

Naomi Osaka “less than 📉” 4.0 breakpoints won:

-line originally started at 3.5 which was fair/reasonable. the bump to 4.0 feels a bit high though. naomi can definitely tee off on weak/juicy serves, but Muchova is one of the stronger players on serve on tour when healthy/fit. maybe she pushes at worst but unless naomi just rolls through Muchova or we get a back and forth break-fest for 3 sets, I don’t see her touching 5… leads me to the “less than” here.

Julia Grabher “less than 📉” 20.5 total games:

-Julia’s back on clay, her surface of comfort, and looked solid in her 1st round match against Vandewinkel. Vandewinkel attempted to make a late surge in the 2nd set but Julia’s impressive point construction proved too much in the end. I think we see another solid performance from Julia here. On clay she looks sharp and plays well above her live ranking. Tara is solid on clay in her own-right, but this should again be another straight sets win for Julia.

Same lineup just duplicated to make use of a 10% payout boost from the new free 2 play jackpots.

[obsidian skiff]

https://tenor.com/view/look-stare-face-mean-bruh-gif-27645430

[obsidian skiff]

Everything i'm running for tomorrow. Short writeups for each play coming soon. Wanted to preface aswell, if you don't know Tennis, DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY. Use me as a 2nd opinion if anything. If you tail me, you are tailing at your own risk. I'm not the player on the tennis courts we are putting money on. Don't cry to me if someone doesn't perform as expected and something chalks. All of my plays are backed by stats and years worth of ball knowledge.

DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY, DONT CRY IF SOMETHING CHALKS

[obsidian skiff]

Quick Disclaimer: Not going to be posting/sharing ALL of my lineups anymore like I used to. If I decide I have time to do a writeup for each of the plays, i'll share. If not, it won't be posted here publicly but you'd still be able to find it on my PrizePicks profile, @obsidian skiff

[obsidian skiff]

I'm moving on from the US Open and looking forward to the Asian Swing as we make our way towards the final stretch of the season and towards the ATP/WTA Finals. This Asian Swing will consist of an ATP Shanghai Masters 1000, ATP China Open 500, ATP Japan Open 500, WTA China Open 1000, WTA Wuhan Open 1000 and the WTA Toray Open 500. We've witnessed high bouncing and long rally clay court tennis, low and flat ball striking grass court tennis, and a fairly quick speed hard court tennis during the North American Swing. However this is where it all changes. Apart from Grand Slams, the Asian Swing features some of the highest and most lucrative purses/prize pools in the entire tour. It will benefit aggressive players, serve and volley'ers, and servebots. Aces will be plentiful, rallies will be shorter, matches will be quicker and overall game speed will be a lightning bolt. After a grueling North American Swing and the US Open, it'll be survival of the fittest. Who's body will be able to withstand the "take no prisoners" playstyle and brutality of these Asian courts.

[dapper shadow]

3 out of 4 projections hit ✅. only miss was grabher which ended up having a weird match script 🥀. still a great day overall 🩶.

[dapper shadow]

WTA Doubles Finals / ATP Semi-Finals

•last main draw look for me before the break. leaning on competitive matches today. both should go through if matches play out tight.

Siniakova / Townsend “more than” 12.5 total games won:

-katerina and taylor are the favs and rightfully-so as they’re rolling, but so are erin and gabriela who were actually able to beat the townsend/siniakova duo at last years doubles final. they can certainly push a set long or win one outright here. i do have taytay and katerina winning though, but after some pushback from the kiwi/canadian pair.

Carlos Alcaraz “more than” 20.5 total games won:

-carlos has been flawless thus far, but unlike his robotic counterpart (jannik sinner), he’s prone to dips in level.. it just feels this one will be a lot closer than what lines are showing. novak isn’t who he once was (father time 🥀), but he’s still Novak-enough to nab a set from carlitos. i’ve got bald-caraz winning in 4 sets personally.. just don’t see this one coming to an end without novak taking a set so as long as carlitos doesnt mow down in straights, this should cash with 4 competitive sets.

(https://x.com/olly_tennis_/status/1963943426665374157?s=46)

Olly Tennis 🎾🇬🇧 (@Olly_Tennis_)

🇷🇸🔥 Novak Djokovic believes he can beat both Alcaraz and Sinner, even if his tank is ‘half empty’:

"When I'm in shape and able to play my best tennis, I still believe that I can beat both Alcaraz and Sinner.

“The most crucial thing is that I need to make a great effort, work

X · Sep 5, 2025, 12:32 PM

https://tenor.com/view/carlos-alcaraz-novak-djokovic-tennis-tenis-carlitos-alcaraz-gif-891883074659719499

[dapper shadow]

https://tenor.com/view/porky-pig-looney-tunes-thats-all-folks-bye-gif-5803466

Townsend/Siniakova belted. cake and i’m not spinning the block. heck of a US Open nonetheless. See yall during the asian swing.

[obsidian skiff]

Baldcaraz will be the new World #1 after today.

[obsidian skiff]

i hate you bo nix

[dapper shadow]

20% Payout Boost (from Free2Play Jackpot 🎰)

🇦🇺🎾Christopher O’Connell “more than 📈” 13.0 total games won:

-O’connell has had a pretty rough season and Eubanks is more of a commentary piece at this stage of his career.. i still think his (eubanks) serve is good enough to at-least push a set long with O’Connell. one long set gets us there (something like 7-5, 6-3). have O’Connell outright here, but expect Eubanks to keep himself alive in tight moments with his equalizing serve.

can ignore MMA/DWCS. only tennis reasoning posted

[obsidian skiff]

Bejlek less than 18.5TG

Bejlek is one of the most promising up and comers on the WTA side and I expect her to make the leap during next year's clay season. Shes had a very impressive season so far with wins over Sherif, Joint, Kostyuk, and Starodubtseva, all on clay with a win rate of 67% on clay courts and a clay title. Her opponent predominantly sees success on the ITF tour with minor success on the Challenger/Main tour. Should be a straight forward win for Bejlek in this.

Tjen less than 18TG

Just like Bejlek, Tjen is a very promising up and comer but instead of clay courts, she's a hard court assassin. While both Tjen and Okalova are mainly on the ITF level, Tjen this season alone has won 5 of these tournaments, 4 in a row with a record of 55-11, 83% win rate on outdoor hard courts. She has won more hard court matches in one year than Okalova has in her career. Tjen is also winning 1st serv.pts at nearly 15% higher rate than Okalova. Should be a very dominant win for the young Indonesian.

Bartunkova less than 16.5FS

This projection is just atrocious. Usually PrizePicks will have the Fantasy Score square for the favorite to win the match, which in this instance is Vidmanova. Bartunkova has also only won 2 outdoor hard court matches in the last 2 years. Vidmanova is 37-8 in the same timeframe. Bartunkova also double faults frequently and has almost no ace upside so all it would take for this square to hit is for Vidmanova to win ONE set.

Kudermetova more than 20.5FS

The superior Kudermetova sister. The #2 seed, Veronika, a few years ago, won this same event. So far this season on outdoor hard courts, she has yet to lose in the first round of any tournament. Paired with a more than sufficient serve that can generate ace upside and being the massive favorite in this vs Kasintseva who is more suited towards clay courts, I'll gladly back Veronika and her experience to win this in straights.

[obsidian skiff]

forgot to use my 30% payout boost

[dapper shadow]

nice ✅😏

[obsidian skiff]

Using my 3 25% payout boosts on these.

[dapper shadow]

🎾🇺🇸Iva Jovic “more than 📈” 21.5 total games:

-bit of a clash in styles here. promising, hard-hitting teenager jovic going up against the scrappy but poised osorio. camila hasn’t had a great 2025 season, but her latest straight sets win against kamilla should boost her confidence. i do have jovic winning outright, but i expect osorio to be competitive enough to stretch this into long sets or a decider. only way this really falls short is if osorio folds early and jovic just runs through her.

🎾🇵🇭Alexandra Eala “more than 📈” 21.5 total games:

-eala’s a solid young player on the rise. she moves well, absorbs/redirects pace and injects from both wings clean. the downside is her serve, which can complicate things and stretch matches. tjen’s been red hot (same win count this szn as carlos alcaraz 🇪🇸), and even if most of those came on the itf level, she’s done nothing but win. feels like she can definitely push eala to 3 or at least long sets.

[dapper shadow]

osorio ran through. 1st serve was absolute food for Iva. gg with this ticket

[dapper shadow]

Weekend Set and Forget 😴

-i’ll attach a reasoning if requested. like these a lot though personally. feel free to leave out the mma if uninterested. (3.5x multiplier)

- yes i want a reasoning

- just put the picks in the bag 🍟

[dapper shadow]

apologies, had a lot going on bts so no reasoning was attached. will ensure i have them attached beforehand moving forward.

also.. gg’s to the ticket. rinderknech able to run laps around grandpa cilic 👴🏼. dispatched of him pretty easily.

[obsidian skiff]

Time to get things back on track

[dapper shadow]

Hangzhou 🇨🇳 / Chengdu 🇨🇳 250’s

•🎾🇺🇸Zachary Zvadja “more than 📈” 22.5 total games:

-in quicker conditions i think Lloyd is definitely capable of pushing a set long or nabbing one outright against Zach. Svajda has the advantage from the baseline with his consistency but Lloyd’s serve should get him out of tight moments. tight long straight sets (7-5, 7-5 or 7-6 6-4) or a 3-setter gets this there.

•🎾🇦🇺Rinky Hijikata “more than 📈” 23.0 total games:

-Similar reasoning as Lloyd / Zach. Have Rinky outright here but expect Eubanks to hold serve well. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Eubanks won outright, but definitely feels the more likely of the 3 to go 3 sets.

•🎾🇫🇷Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard “more than 📈” 23.5 total games:

-love going over games / under breakpoints on mpetshi perricard. his return game is absolutely atrocious and he might have the worst— backhand on tour. the one bright spot?.., his serve.. with raonic inactive it’s arguably the best on tour. the drastic differences in his game usually means you’ll see a tiebreak or 2. good for over games as i think filip can also hold his own on serve to get the needed games here.

https://tenor.com/view/reilly-opelka-servebot-tennis-serve-ace-gif-22712512

[obsidian skiff]

Lineup is going 3/4.
Basavareddy took care of business, Krejcikova is obliterating her opponent, Bashilashvili is too inconsistent to win in straights and is going to a 3rd set as predicted. All green.
Boyer is terrible. He played amazing in the 1st set but he got broken on his first service game which cost him 1st set, had he not gotten broken, he would've won 1st set. He later lost a 6-3 lead in the 2nd set tiebreaker and let his opponent win 5 points in a row to lose the 2nd set aswell. Nothing I can do about that.

Running these two and calling it a night, hopefully both are wake and cashes.

[obsidian skiff]

(btw, i usually never miss more than 1 square on a slip, im notorious for going 1 off everytime, just a warning lol)

[obsidian skiff]

Remaining 3 matches were postponed so here’s an update as we wait for continuation later tonight.

[obsidian skiff]

unbelievable

[obsidian skiff]

Chalkkkkkk.

• Hijikata killed Holt, simple.
• Zhou got the biggest win of his career, FIRST win over anyone in the Top 50.
• Tien won in 3 but should’ve won in 2, no reason why he should’ve lost that 1st set 5-7 when he was up 4-1 on a surface that benefits him.

[obsidian skiff]

1st photo has my 3 top plays for tonight - writeups coming later.

[obsidian skiff]

Writeups and reasonings for each play. Tail at your own risk of course.

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk first two lineups with a complete reverse on one.
Perricard played absolutely horrendous and I put too much faith in him. Got broken in the 1st set and was only serving aces at 10.6%, majority of which he got towards the end where Misolic just gave up and knew it was finished so his actual percentage is much closer to 7-8%. His average for the last 52 weeks has been 20.6%. Not much more I can say, wasn't expecting or able to predict 66% decrease in production.

Shnaider was a bad read, I expected it to be a break heavy game which is was, with 8/14 total BPs converted but I backed the wrong horse in Shnaider. That's on me.

Alexandrova won but just like Perricard who's serve should've been amplified on these courts, instead got abysmally worse. She served aces at 6.7% and double faults at 15.7%. Her double fault rate by itself and the deficit from 6.7%-15.7% (9% more DFS than Aces) has been her worst performance in 53 WEEKS and her worst serving performance all season.

The reads are there, the stats are there, everything is there but I can't predict players having the worst performance they've had all season the one time I choose to play them, rip.

[dapper shadow]

long wait but finally get results ✅✅✅🧹

[obsidian skiff]

No writeups bc I am lazy and it feels like no matter how much reasoning goes into these plays, some crazy upset always happens invalidating it anyways

[obsidian skiff]

Not doing Women’s tennis anymore for these tournaments lmao. First set bagels by both Iga/Joint. Only playing the Men’s matches now.

[obsidian skiff]

https://prizepicks.onelink.me/gCQS/shareEntry?entryId=86553e977b5c2039f51435bc0332be4b&origin=

10 mins left-ish

[obsidian skiff]

oh well

[obsidian skiff]

Short writeup bc don't feel like going too detailed into it tonight. This is only for the early slate, might have more for the late slate in a few hours.

Munar more than 16.5FS

Berrettini isn't 100% healthy and that was very evident in his straight set loss vs Srvcina (who later lost 6-1, 6-1 to Bublik). Munar has played well on hard courts this year, defeating names like Medvedev, Diallo, Musetti and Fokina. Good value here in Munar vs a still recovering from injury Berrettini.

Cirstea less than 20.5TG

Beijing is a slow hard court, one of the slowest on tours. Cirstea has also been on a hell of a run with a 12-3 record on hard courts of late with her only losses being vs Swiatek twice and Muchova once. Her last 9 wins have been in straights and I expected her to win in straights tonight vs an out of form Dolehide on a 5 game losing streak.

BVDZ more than 16FS

Just like Berrettini, Atmane is still not fully healthy. He lost in straights vs Dino Prizmic and barely got away vs a Fajing Sun who only won 10% of Atmane's 1st serve which was also terrible at only a 38% in rate. Botic is fresh and looked to be firing on all cylinders vs O'Connell with 24 winners and only 5 unforced errors.

Harris more than 23.5FS

Brandon Holt is terrible. That's my reasoning.

[obsidian skiff]

lmaooo nvm. Munar went 0/9 for BPs, he had a 40-0, 40-15, and another 40-15 lead to break Berrettini on 3 seperate occassions and failed to win one more point each time to convert. Never taking qualifier matches ever again.

Last one for tn

[obsidian skiff]

First lineup for tonight, mainly for the early slate. Will have more for later slate in a few hours.

I hate Brooksby // Nishioka sucks // Eubanks sucks.

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk this, Ugo was up 4-1 in the 1st set then he blew the lead and lost vs Scam Artist Brooksby. Might run Harris back on a later lineup

[obsidian skiff]

ragebet to end the night

(as always. tail at ur own risk, nobody is forcing you to tail, if something chalks - don’t cry to me, i’m not ur mama, idc)

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk Galfi. Played absolutely god damn terrible. Neither one of these women wanted to win with a combined total of 163 unforced errors.

This is also Boisson’s FIRST Hard Court win over a Top 200 opponent IN HER CAREER. Just a terrible bad beat.

[obsidian skiff]

Everything i'm running for tomorrow. Wanted to preface aswell, if you don't know Tennis, DO NOT TAIL ME BLINDLY. Use me as a 2nd opinion if anything. If you tail me, you are tailing at your own risk. I'm not the player on the tennis courts we are putting money on. Don't cry to me if someone doesn't perform as expected and something chalks. All of my plays are backed by stats and years worth of ball knowledge. Tail as is, take one play, take all of them, up to you.

** Do NOT tail me blindly and then cry if something chalks. I’m not your mama, I don’t care. Go cry me a river. **

[obsidian skiff]

Do we want writeups/reasoning for these plays?

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk Dolo in the most stupid way possible. He had a chance to go Adv-40 for a chance to break and a chance to save match point at 40-Adv. Both of them were just terrible shots, genuinely the worst beat I’ve had in days.

[obsidian skiff]

writeups:
svrcina sucks. glorified challenger merchant. bias pick here ngl but if wu can beat meddy, he’ll kill svrcina.

camilo is a clay rat and atmane took a set off sinner on hard courts (even if he was trolling)

pedro martinez is also a clay rat and cazaux has a decent enough serve to blast him off the court.

lazy writeups bc im lazy tn

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk the slip. Top 2 players chalked due to retirement/forfeit.

Good reads but I can't predict a heat stroke or a leg/thigh injury. It is what it is.

[obsidian skiff]

Pegula in the 3rd set had 40-0 to break at 2-2, 40-15 to break at 4-4, and had 3 match points to win it at 6-5 but just couldn’t close it out. Good reads all around, just unpredictable beats.

[obsidian skiff]

💀

[obsidian skiff]

McAlister hooked at 65/66.5 but the tennis plays still valid

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk Fritz. Man has terrible endurance/stamina. Was completely gassed before the 1st set even ended and had no momentum on defense. Kept feeding into Gio’s powerful forehand instead of exploiting his weak backhand, missed several easy net plays and kept lining out wide when Gio was hammering Ace T’s. Great performance by Gio, terrible outing by Fritz.

[obsidian skiff]

Simple writeups bc it's late and i'm lazy.

Kawa is an unforced error machine, 138 errors and 21 double faults in the last 3 games. Yulia is at 33 and 4 in the same timeframe. Should be a very dominant win for Yulia.

Vacherot's run ends here. Even at 38, no one can challenge Joker besides Sinner/Alcaraz who are both out from the tournament and he knows now is his best chance to capitalize. Joker clears Vacherot across the board in stats, Hold %, Break % and Serving stats.

Pegula's been capitalizing off of her opponents unforced errors and winning in 3 sets. Sabalenka is too dominant right now and has NEVER lost a match here at Wuhan and I expect her to move onto the Finals for the 4th consecutive year after defeating a fatigued Pegula.

Fery is great on hard courts and more specifically indoors where his serve shines. 71% win rate in his career on Indoor Hard with a season record of 14-3. Buse is a clay rat who has played 200 matches on clay in his career but only 4 with a 25% win rate on indoor hard courts and 37 with a 56% win rate on outdoor hard courts. Complete mismatch on paper and should play out as such.

[obsidian skiff]

potd - Mochi sucks. They literally just played 3 days ago and Cazaux blasted him off the court with his serve in a 6-1, 6-2 win with 5 aces and 0 double faults. We move indoors now to where the speed gets faster and further boosts Cazaux’s serve. Mochi also has to get over the mental hurdle that is playing somebody that demolished you just a few days later, I don’t see it happening — this is a no brainer for me.

[obsidian skiff]

Writeups

Matteo is slowly regaining his pre-abdominal injury form. Form, when healthy, defeated the likes of Minaur, Zverev, Djokovic and Griekspoor. Norrie is a player who likes pace and needs time to set up his shots; a playstyle that is horrible for indoor hard courts, reflecting on his 50% win rate on these courts in his career. If Matteo can early on find his serve around a 75-80% range, utilizing his trademark serve plus one game, he should dominate this matchup easily.

"But Opelka just beat Botic, why are you taking his more/over!!!" -- Because he was the first in line for a Lucky Loser spot. Players frequently tank qualifier matches if they know they'll be in the tournament anyways via. LL spot. "Why waste energy and effort in qualifiers if I already have a spot in the tournament." Botic to me is still the more complete and in-form player currently than Opelka, (who's had a Mickey Mouse draw so far) while BVDZ demolished Brussells runner-up in Jiri Lehecka with a 6-2, 6-2 win. I expect both of these men to battle and take us to atleast one tiebreaker or a triple-setter.
.

Bublik is the far better player than Cerundolo this season. A hard court title, a grass title and TWO clay court titles on the year. Vienna is Bublik's playground and a tournament I fully expect him to win (if Sinner doesn't). Similiar to Norrie, Dolo likes pace and time to setup his shots, Bublik's serve plus one and explosive forehands on these courts will give him zero time to do so. Factoring in ace upside, Bublik covers as long as he wins.
.

Does Sinner REALLY need a writeup? On one side you have Cobolli, 17-28 career record on IHC (37%) with two wins this season over an injury-prone Machac and Dirty Rinky. Opposite of him will be Jannik Sinner, 11 match winstreak on IHC since February of 2024, and only one loss (vs. Djokovic) since October 2023, total record of 21-1. No brainer here.

Ugo Humbert could and will probably be terrible majority of the season but when it comes to IHC, he dominates. Probably the 2nd best player behind Sinner on these courts, he holds an impressive 13-2 record over the past year with his only two losses being in the finals of the tournaments. He will also be fresh, playing only 44 matches this season and had a quick 6-3, 6-4 win over Seb.Korda compared to 70 played by Fritz and the grueling 4-6, 7-6, 7-5 win over Valentin Vacherot. Am I predicting a Ugo upset win over Fritz? No but I am predicting Ugo to win atleast ONE set vs Fritz which is all we need to cash.

[obsidian skiff]

1st lineup cashed, 2nd lineup chalked bc I gave Fritz too much credit and failed to win 5 games in a single set. Still take the 6x tho.

[obsidian skiff]

Tail at your own risk, if I chalk, don't ping me crying about it, I don't care about another man's money lol.

[obsidian skiff]

Writeups and reasonings on why I took each play.

[obsidian skiff]

What I got for tomorrow with my writeups explaining why I took each play that I did.

Like always, tail at your own risk, if I chalk, don't ping me crying about it, I don't care about another man's money lol.

[obsidian skiff]

I forgot to mention in the FAA/Sinner writeup, Sinner won the ATP Finals last year without dropping more than 8 games all series. Ontop of that, Sinner is also playing at home in Italy.

Courts that suit his game, tournament he dominated the year prior, #1 ranking in play with the Italian home crowd roaring behind him? Sinner isn't losing.

[obsidian skiff]

Doubling down on the TURIN TERMINATOR that is Jannik Sinner today.

[obsidian skiff]

What I got for tomorrow with my writeups explaining why I took each play that I did.

Like always, tail at your own risk, if I chalk, don't ping me crying about it, I don't care about another man's money lol. I don't force anybody to tail me, if you do, it's at your own risk.

[obsidian skiff]

No writeups bc lazy - tail if you’d like but just remember I’m not the player on the tennis court. If it chalks, don’t cry to me about it, I don’t care about your wallet, only mine 💀

[fringe heath]

I was slow in catching the bumps after posting this but luckily I learned the Alycia Parks fade from the very best

[fringe heath]

Welp it was a good run… I’m retiring until January 1st

[fringe heath]

I want to end the year on a good note. I’ve been unimpressed by Tien at this tournament. Though he made the finals, he’s expended minimal effort to do so.

**Tien 2.5 break points **
Gonna entertain the line change here. First time it’s opened this low in his last 5 matches this tournament. Blockx at his best serves really well and hasn’t conceded many breakpoints this tournament. Tien has been struggling to break the bigger servers at this tourney.

Alexander Blockxz 2.0 breakpoints
Basically the inverse here with how exploitable Tien’s serve is. He’s riding with a lot more momentum into the finals having not dropped a single set. 2 is a very manageable line against Tien as observed with basavareddy who is not as comparable to blockxz.

Just giving two options because they have good correlation imo and you can pair either with the discount. Tail.. don’t tail.. whatever you want to do I don’t mind, I will return to hibernating till Jan. 1st. Happy Holidays!

Also nice that they have match winners now for tennis. +130 /1.92 here is tempting enough to sprinkle on with the comparable forms of both players

[fringe heath]

Replacement line for blockx bps

[obsidian skiff]

Let’s start 2026 with a nice lil bang. Backing the servebot Cazaux on these hard courts.

Also really like Fearnley vs the challenger-merchant Sweeney who is 1-3 on main tour matches and 0-1 on main tour qualifier matches vs opponents ranked in the top #100.

[obsidian skiff]

Liking Minaur in hometown hard courts conditions to take the better of Ruud who is more suited for clay courts.

Fritz is Baez’s daddy, 5 matches in the H2H, all 5 went less than 17.5TG with all 3 outdoor hard court matches going less than 16.5TG.

[obsidian skiff]

Absolutely horrible all around - Cazaux put belt, Sweeney got the biggest win of his career vs Fearnley, Minaur forgot how to serve and Fritz has been suffering with an undisclosed tendinitis, it is what it is.

[fringe heath]

POTD for (today, tomorrow?) I’m low-key on vacation but I can’t ignore this projection for Rybakina.

Tons of questionable players back on the board… I would be wary of: Badosa, Kyrgios, Dimitrov, Krejickova, Keys, Muchova, Williams, Juncheng Shang. Tempting odds but I would fade early round cuz they possibly could be rusty / still injured.

Leans:
Sonego fantasy
Cirstea fantasy
Sabalenka 18.5 total games
Diallo fantasy
Etcheverrey total games
Humbert aces
Tommy Paul fantasy ||CC @gritty grove||

[shut junco]

Dono

[fringe heath]

Update:
CASH POTD 💰💸

[fringe heath]

Tons of questionable players back on the board… Post Match Reviews Badosa- homegirl whines about her back and proceeds to try to hit maximum total games every time

Kyrgios- washed… can only beat women

Dimitrov/ Krejickova / Keys -
Returned in solid form and respected projections. All could be dangerous if they stay healthy.

Muchova.

Williams- declining health but always a joy to watch. She still draws big crowds and if she was in her prime she would’ve mopped hg. Great early round player to sprinkle on

Juncheng Shang- kinda regret not adding him as a lean I backed out at the last second and added him to that list. Really good hc player.

Leans:
✅ Sonego fantasy
✅ Cirstea fantasy
✅ Sabalenka 18.5 total games
✅ Diallo fantasy
❌ Etcheverrey total games
✅ Humbert aces
💔 Tommy Paul fantasy <

[obsidian skiff]

Hubi Hurkacz is back playing like he never left. Winning 85% of his 1st serves, didn’t lose his serve once and delivered a blazing 21 aces in a straight set demolition vs Sascha Zverev. He’ll face Griekspoor who lost in his first match of the United Cup vs Zverev and allowed 15 aces in the meeting. I trust Hubi to get the job done today.

Find your own pairs.

[obsidian skiff]

HUBI HURKACZ

I like this spot for the Maestro. He made significant improvement on faster courts during last season’s Asian Swing and I want to believe that he can continue to build on that momentum here in Hong Kong. The market also has Etcheverry’s win chance at 29.1%. In the past year on hard courts, he has never won a match as an underdog at 29.1% or lower.

[obsidian skiff]

BANNNGGGG, TENNIS DOESNT END AFTER THE FIRST SET! ANDIAMOOOOO!!!

[obsidian skiff]

Pretty interesting spot here for Rybakina. The H2H record is 4-4 but since 2023 when Badosa's health and fitness concerns started due to a stress fracture in her back, Ryba leads the H2H 3-0. Ryba played nearly perfect vs Shuai Zhang in her last match with 16 aces to only 6 double faults while winning 82% of her 1st serve points. Badosa on the other hand has already pulled out of a doubles match with Sabalenka and played sloppy tennis with 13 double faults vs Bouzkova. I like Rybakina to use her powerful striking and serves to win this matchup dominantly.

[obsidian skiff]

Risky play here but I like the price and value on Muller. He won this event in its entirety last year and has points to defend. Muller’s defensive and rally-extending skillset should draw unforced errors out of Giron and grind out a tight match.

[obsidian skiff]

Bang Rybakina Fantasy. Sweaty as hell, match prediction was spot on as Badosa struggled with double faults and Rybakina’s ball-striking was too elite.

This play is more about Noskova than Andreeva. Noskova stepped onto the court last night vs Frech with one of her legs heavily bandaged and it was clear it hampered her. Movement was sluggish, didn't chase shots she usually would and had to take a MTO and called her Physio multiple times in the match. Andreeva looked extremely poor vs Gadecki in the 1st set loss last night but quickly turned things around with a 6-1, 6-2 scoreline in the 2nd and 3rd sets. Might've been court rust but I think she gets the job done tonight vs an obviously injured Noskova.

[obsidian skiff]

sheesh

[fringe heath]

POTD

For the evening matches:

⭐️** Honorable mention-**
Alex de Minaur 2.5 breakpoints

Swiatek 4.5 breakpoints
Daniil Medvedev total games less
Medvedev fantasy
Aryna Sabalenka 20.0 total games
Rublev aces
Brandon Nakashima fantasy 18.5
Bublik aces
Mmoh aces 7.5
Madga linette 4.5 breakpoints

Some of these projections arent on the board yet. Feel free to ping or dm @obsidian skiff if you have any questions or comments ty

[obsidian skiff]

Absolutely love this spot in this match between Sabalenka and Keys. Madison Keys has been through the ringer so far this tournament by playing in nearly 4h30m worth of tennis - which also saw her take two medical timeouts last night vs Diana Shnaider. Aryna Sabalenka has been more than excellent so far in back to back straight set wins over Bucsa and Cirstea with a dramatically lower amount of tennis played clocking in at only 2h10m. Madison Keys finishing a grueling three hour match (also possibly injured) and having to face the well rested WTA #1 with barely 18 hours of rest, I trust Sabalenka to cruise her way into the Semi-Finals here.

PoTD Record: 4/4

[obsidian skiff]

PoTD RECORD EXTENDS TO A PERFECT 5/5! Easy reads as Keys just could not keep up physically with the intensity and power behind Sabalenka's shots.

[obsidian skiff]

Very sharp and risky spot here for the Polish but I don’t mind taking the risk. Last season when they met in Seoul (much faster courts), Maya Joint had no answer for Swiatek’s arsenal of shots resulting in a 6-0, 6-2 loss with 6 conceded break points. I don’t think this meeting tonight will be any different. These courts at the United Cup are slower than the ones in Seoul which benefits Swiatek and increases the likelihood of break points. On top of that, Maya Joint has already withdrew from one United Cup match due to illness and lost the subsequent match to Krejcikova 6-4, 6-1 while conceding 5 break points. I got no doubt the Ginger Ninja will be a star on the tour one day but tonight, the odds are too stacked against her, give me the Pole in dominating fashion.

PoTD Record: 5/5

[obsidian skiff]

As expected, Maya Joint is simply too green at the moment to deal with the counter-striking of Iga Swiatek.

Extends the PoTD record to 6/6. I’ll see yall tomorrow.

[fringe heath]

CASH POTD ‼️

I was expecting like a 22-23.5 not a bta from Muchova. I’m not completely shocked though as a healthy Muchova is capable of terrorizing a lot of the taller ball bashers like Rybakina, Saba, Anisimova, etc. She plays with a fun amount of variety which forces her opponents to move out of their comfort striking zone.
-# this hurts me as a Ryba fan

[fringe heath]

⭐️** Honorable mention-**
✅ Alex de Minaur 2.5 breakpoints

We all know that Minaur owns this h2h but hurcakz is still a powerful serve bot at the end of the day allowing himself to only be broken twice in a tight 3 setter. Keep an eye out for Hurkacz aces in upcoming events 👀

✅Swiatek 4.5 breakpoints
❌Daniil Medvedev total games less
✅Medvedev fantasy
✅Aryna Sabalenka 20.0 total games
Rublev aces
✅Brandon Nakashima fantasy 18.5
✅Bublik aces
🚑Mmoh aces 7.5
❌Madga linette 4.5 breakpoints

I can’t believe I missed the value on Kostyuk today. When are we gonna stop overrating Andreeva?

Also let me know if y’all actually tail / find this format useful ty.

[obsidian skiff]

Looking to extend the PoTD record to 7/7 with Svitolina tonight. I think very highly of Iva Jovic, she has a great game, strikes the ball early and has great movement but just like Maya Joint from last night, I think Jovic is too early in her career to be considered a threat to a 15-year+ tour veteran in Svitolina. Svitolina has found herself in down positions vs Boulter and Kartal and has fought her way back into the semifinals. Jovic's biggest flaw in her game is a lack of a serve, a category in which Boulter and Kartal are far superior in. I trust Svitolina to take advantage of Jovic's weaker serve and make her way into the Auckland Finals for the 2nd year in a row.

[obsidian skiff]

Absolutely love this spot and think it's borderline disrespectful for Hurkacz to only be projected at a 14 Fantasy Score. We've seen Hubi serve up 61 aces in 7 sets with dominant wins over Zverev and Griekspoor. He fought to a 3rd set decider vs (in my opinion) the best returner on the tour in Alex de Minaur and still managed to put up 19 aces vs him. Taylor Fritz on the other hand has been nothing short of disappointing. Starting the United Cup in a loss vs the clay rat Baez, being pushed into a 3 set match and narrowly winning vs clay rat Munar and losing in straight sets to a fitness-hampered and depressed Tsitsipas. On top of all of this, Fritz is still dealing with a "pretty serious tendonitis" issue in his knee. With the Australian Open two weeks away, I don't think Fritz will push himself and risk further injury this close to the AO - give me Hurkacz to win in this matchup.

[obsidian skiff]

https://x.com/christianscourt/status/2007470702195077293?s=46&t=hquI3L-B9EAvncRIxNMm8w

Christian's Court (@christianscourt)

Taylor Fritz just seen talking to the tournament director about his knee issue. Fritz told the press ahead of the United Cup that he's battling through "pretty serious tendonitis".

World No. 114 Mackie McDonald would likely replace Fritz in the remaining ties if needed.

X · Jan 3, 2026, 3:14 PM

[obsidian skiff]

KNOW BALL. 7/7

[obsidian skiff]

Tennis ain’t over until it’s over. BANG!

PoTD Record: PERFECT. 8. OUT. OF. 8.

[obsidian skiff]

No PoTD for today. Board is too scarce and there's nothing that I feel absolutely confident on.

[obsidian skiff]

-# (Not a PoTD so obviously this won't go against the record - all of these plays are very risky)

Sabalenka more than 12.5TGW

Saba has been nothing short but perfect so far with b2b2b straight set wins into the finals - however I can't ignore what Kostyuk has been able to produce as well with b2b2b straight set wins of her own but vs Top #10 opponents. In Sabalenka's last 8 finals appearances dating back to August of 2024, all 8 of those matches saw a 7-6, 7-5 or a 3-set match. I believe Sabalenka will win and claim her 2nd Brisbane title but I trust Kostyuk to keep the match competitive.

Musetti more than 10.5FS

This will be a great match that is decided by the thinnest of margins but I like the Maestro in this matchup. He has a wide arsenal of shots he can choose from and is able to change pace and steal rhythm during rallies very easily. Going up vs Bublik who sruggled finding his serve in the 1st set vs Giron, if Musetti is able to return the serves into play and get into a rally with Bublik, I can see Bublik spraying errors and losing this matchup.

Wawrinka less than 10.5TGW

Old Man Stan is on a retirement tour and has struggled this far. Losing 3 of his 4 United Cup matches and losing his serve at least once in all 4 matches. Hubi Hurkacz on the other hand has been nothing short of sensational since returning from injury with straight set wins over Fritz, Griekspoor and Zverev. I fully trust Hubi to hold his serves and not get broken once this match and to break Wawrinka at least one time in a straight set win for the Polish. One is all we need.

⚠️ I don't care about your money or if I chalked you lol. You are free to tail/fade, you're an adult, you make your own decisions, don't blame me if something chalks, I'm not the player on the tennis courts ⚠️

[fringe heath]

Picks for this evening:

Blockx 23 fantasy more ⭐️
Lloyd Harris 24 fantasy more
Kalinina 14 fantasy more
Yibing Wu 21.5 fsntasy more
Darja Vidmanova 20.5 fantasy more

Michelsen fs more ⭐️
Medjedovic fantasy more
Diallo fantasy more
Bouzkova ttgw more
Kalinskaya ttgw over
Krejickova total games less ⭐️
Raducanu fantasy more ⭐️

Some havent hit the board yet. No regular ace lines yet but perricard or medjedovic more would be my faves

[obsidian skiff]

Perricard more than 19.5 Aces

High but manageable spot here for the French Servebot. He’s hit this projection every match so far this season and I like his chances vs Norrie, #7th out of top #100 in terms of aces allowed defending vs the #2 out of #100 in Ace %. Norrie is a statue and let’s serves fly, this match should see atleast one tiebreaker if not split sets, giving GMP plenty of service games to get aces.

[obsidian skiff]

This is more than likely going to chalk. Due to rain, humidity is higher which makes the tennis balls heavier and slower, drastically reducing the speed of play and speed of the tennis balls. Still got plenty of tennis to be played but I don't have a good feeling about this anymore due to the weather.

[balmy epoch]

💃

[obsidian skiff]

RAIN DOESNT STOP THE FRENCH SERVEBOT. BANNNGGGG!

.
PoTD Record: 9/9

[fringe heath]

POTD!!

[fringe heath]

EASY CASH ON POTD ✅‼️

Streets said Overshell and Steelheart have never been seen together at the same time. Also it was brought to my attention I posted this at an odd hour, I’ll try better in the future. Until then, let’s keep those aces in their places

[fringe heath]

POTD

I might break the green streak with this one but scared money doesn’t make money.
Jakub Mensik has LOW allowance.

[obsidian skiff]

Linette less than 8.5 Total Games Won

As we try to continue out perfect PoTD streak, we find ourselves at the match of Iva Jovic vs Magda Linette and I will absolutely hammer this spot against Linette. Iva Jovic has been on an absolute tear as of late - winning 10% more games, 5% more points, 8% better hold rate and winning 5% more return points than Magda Linette. Her fearless, aggressive playstyle paired her with surgical early ball striking will be too much for the 33 year old to handle. The pair have also faced off one in the past in 2024 at the USO, very similar court conditions as what we have now and Jovic won that encounter, 6-4, 6-3. Give me the future #10 talent to win this matchup dominantly.

[balmy epoch]

💃.

[fringe heath]

POTD

Kimberly Birrell has HIGH allowance for aces.

[balmy epoch]

💃.

[fringe heath]

CASH POTD

I hope y’all didn’t fall for the L5 on Mpetshi aces 😉

Let’s keep those aces in their places

[fringe heath]

BANGGGG CASH SET 1 NO SWEAT ✅

[fringe heath]

Andreeva vs. Mboko (ADELAIDE WTA 500 FINAL)

Very fitting that the first meeting of these two talented youngsters is in a finals. Both ladies have had very impressive breakthroughs with captivating runs in Masters level tournaments.

I can’t pass up the value here on Mboko though… I thought she would be favored as more of a coin flip matchup. Both players strike the ball very well but Mboko’s forehand is a lot more consistent than Andreeva’s. I also want to note Mboko generally has a stronger mental in higher pressure situations. There is a bit of risk to this as Mboko was sighted with some taping on her right leg yesterday but it’s definitely worth a sprinkle.
I’m taking Victoria Mboko to win🇨🇦🔥

[fringe heath]

POTD

[fringe heath]

Washed 😔

[fringe heath]

We move.
TIME FOR SOME AUSSIE BALL.

The Australian Open 🦘🇦🇺

[fringe heath]

Y’all thought I would stop at just regular aces?

Good morning! Here are some aces to sweat on the Lord’s day

POTD

[balmy epoch]

5-1 ytd

[obsidian skiff]

Jesper De Fraud has high ace allowance, Meddy always performs in Grand Slams and has the skillset to negate the heavy serve-dependent JDJ. Im expecting B2A from Meddy today.

[balmy epoch]

💃.

[obsidian skiff]

Chalk - Double faulted twice and got broken twice in the 1st set and his body language wasnt the same after that. Played his serves way more conservatively from 5 aces in the 1st to 0 in the 2nd. im washed