Blasts don't necessarily leave scorch marks.
https://www.dvidshub.net/image/1266511/engineers-blast-back-basics
#2024-2025 Iran / Israel and United States Clashes (NO MEMES)
celest ridge
nimble tusk
Yeah but I’d figure there’d be some rocket fuel or something, I assume that photo is just a large block of plastic explosives not a bomb or rocket impact
modern finch
Yeah but I’d figure there’d be some rocket fuel or something, I assume that phot...
rocket fuel isn't black powder, and depending on the type of fuel used, it can leave very little residue behind, or any residue behind is blown away by the force of the explosion. See here an image of a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv by Russia late last year- the dark colour in there is merely the colour of the soil further down. if you look at images of similar ballistic missile strikes in Ukraine, the impact craters line up very well
nimble tusk
Ah makes sense. I’m not sure why it seemed off to me
rare belfry
Yeah but I’d figure there’d be some rocket fuel or something, I assume that phot...
Ballistic missiles spend their fuel (whether solid or liquid) right at the beginning of the flight, the rest of the way they fly like "javelins" in a tall ballistic arc.
modern finch
Netanyahu will reconvene his war cabinet at 2pm local time
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/15/middle-east-crisis-live-news-iran-drone-attack-israel-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-661ce20e8f0806742af988ac#block-661ce20e8f0806742af988ac
They were previously unable to come to a conclusion on what response due to serious divisions between them, so I wonder if they’ll decide now
plush nymph
Would love to have him in a Stage Talk.
rigid light
there was no significant explosive burn (fuel, or anything that can be burnt), just dirt which well doesn't burn in the traditional sense
the earth piled away is probably the dirt that was moved over to fill the hole
also fwiw, i've seen these points moving through twitter as disinfo
astral wigeon
More missile and drone launches in the state TV midday report
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3SBL8BUqQ20
rigid light
https://vxtwitter.com/revolutionaryem/status/1779631306806358209 wrt new disinfo narrative about the craters (x-posted to the I-P disinfo channel)
modern finch
TOI is now claiming that IDF soldiers of the Golani Infantry Brigade and Yahlom SOF were operating on the other side of the Lebanese border last night
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779840859854270496
balmy cliff
river swift
modern finch
the Israeli War Cabinet meeting has concluded with no final decision immediately announced
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=661d35139f0e6101c57b1788%26Israel's course of action hasn't been decided - official%262024-04-15T14%3A12%3A49.165Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:92648b1a-e54f-4894-978f-7311e4121e13&pinned_post_asset_id=661d35139f0e6101c57b1788&pinned_post_type=share
The Guardian, quoting Channel 12, announces that the cabinet has discussed a range of options, all of which involve retaliation strikes against Iran, but does not escalate to a regional war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/15/middle-east-crisis-live-news-iran-drone-attack-israel-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-661d394a8f086f43339e901f#block-661d394a8f086f43339e901f
rigid light
weirdly enough, tracks with their nuclear strategy of ambiguity
burnt edge
Hi, can you please share a link instead of a screenshot? Thanks!
hot python
What erredece said. Please copy/paste the link to this post. Other members must be able to follow the link.
plush nymph
Hi, can you please share a link instead of a screenshot? Thanks!
Twitter
clear hedge
modern finch
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/tv-report-war-cabinet-decides-to-hi...
That’s… not good
clear hedge
That’s… not good
Keep in mind, as the article says, it's an unsourced report. Just thought it would be helpful to share as it's the first indication just like a few weeks ago when Iran was dripping small details out that they would attack Israel directly. Thought it would be helpful to time/date the moment for context. Also seeing lots of disinfo about IDF getting ready to attack Lebanon which I believe they think is happening because of the training exercise that was planned ages ago up there. I'm sure you'll see that in the wild on the twitter fire hose of disinfo/misinfo because I saw tons of it. It's a mess on that site.
https://vxtwitter.com/aa51_ansari/status/1779560670347899324 really interesting 🧵 to see this reference to pre-islamic state Cyrus the Great with respect to Khamenei and the recent events.
severe pecan
celest ridge
balmy cliff
"US officials believe that at least nine Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli air bases on Sunday, evading air defences, although the damage appeared to be minimal.
Israel, the United States and their allies on Sunday shot down 99 per cent of more than 100 drones and dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles in an unprecedented show of force.
But at least five ballistic missiles were not intercepted, hitting the Nevatim air base in the Negev desert in the south of Israel, damaging a C-130 cargo plane, an out-of-use runway and empty storage facilities, an unnamed US official told ABC News. Four other missiles appeared to have hit another airbase in the Negev, causing significant damage."
muted bane
https://x.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1779607690144272683?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw
ID’s on one of the missiles involved in the strike
Twitter
river swift
"US officials believe that at least nine Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli ...
per the Iranians, the second airbase was Ramon air base. Wonder what 'significant' damage means
i doubt we'll find out for quite awhile
still zephyr
https://twitter.com/HalaJaber/status/1779965236247658532?s=19 iranian media saying that Russia would participate in a a re re retaliation against Israel.
Twitter
muted bane
per the Iranians, the second airbase was Ramon air base. Wonder what 'significan...
Don't know specific, but if anybody is more experienced in looking at satellite imagery, I did find that Sentinel-2 L2A did capture some photos of Ramon Air Base from Yesterday over on the Sentenlhub's website.
heady bloom
They denied it in a report in their own media.
clear hedge
https://twitter.com/HalaJaber/status/1779965236247658532?s=19 iranian media sayi...
Just keep this in mind when reading anything from Hala Jaber 🇸🇾 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/987037353138106368.html
still zephyr
Didn't know about that. Good to know, I'll avoid her.
tulip rampart
Didn't know about that. Good to know, I'll avoid her.
She also deleted the tweet because her source was a fake account claiming to be official Iranian media
snow rock
Iranian currency plunges to record low against dollar after strikes on Israel
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/14/irans-rial-plunges-to-record-low-against-dollar-after-israel-strikes.html
rain zealot
Don’t know if this has been posted already, but if it hasn’t: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-coverage/card/map-where-and-how-iran-attacked-israel-9gzWHDxL50nCEqzq9xPH
The sheer number of different ways missiles and drones were simultaneously fired towards Israel is much more than I originally pictured.
muted cliff
It would seem that a Shahed rocket costs about 50K, so I think most military strategists are thinking similarly to me that the cost of defence might slowly bankrupt the defence:
Source[apologies its behind a behind a paywall]:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/16/suicide-drones-threaten-to-bankrupt-western-militaries/
ripe niche
It would seem that a Shahed rocket costs about 50K, so I think most military str...
iron dome interceptors are actually relatively affordable. obviously they're not the only AD system employed, and obviously it doesn't have a 100% interception rate, so the exchange in strict monetary terms probably favors iran, but the exchange is far more favorable than, say, if patriot were used instead. i know your point is broader, but thought i'd point that out given the topic of this thread
The Tamir interceptor was initially estimated to cost $100,000 to produce, but recent estimates assert unit costs of roughly $40,000 to $50,000 each.
muted cliff
iron dome interceptors are actually relatively affordable. obviously they're not...
The USA are voting on Israeli Aid this week so I wonder what effect that will have:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/15/iran-attack-us-house-speaker-mike-johnson-aid-bill-israel-ukraine
EDIT: there is also this interesting article: https://www.csis.org/analysis/cost-and-value-air-and-missile-defense-intercepts#new_tab
clear hedge
It would seem that a Shahed rocket costs about 50K, so I think most military str...
Inflation in Iran 🇮🇷 is at an incredible high and the Rial is ﷼ 1 to $0.000024 US Dollars. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=IR
muted cliff
Inflation in Iran 🇮🇷 is at an incredible high and the Rial is ﷼ 1 to $0.00002...
Provided sanctions don't effect the Iranian oil market I don't think the fact that the rial is basically worthless has any value.[Aside from making living Iran as an ordinary citizen terrible].
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-unlikely-cut-irans-oil-lifeline-after-israel-attack-2024-04-16/
wintry dust
The USA are voting on Israeli Aid this week so I wonder what effect that will ha...
We are in Month #4 of Johnson "changing his mind" about how to block Ukraine aid. It's not happening.
river swift
The USA are voting on Israeli Aid this week so I wonder what effect that will ha...
us congress is far too dysfunctional to guarantee that anything will happen
but the biden admin has regularly circumvented congress to send more arms to israel, so israel doesn't have to worry about getting weapons unless biden changes his mind
snow rock
Yep, the Biden Admin could send aid to Ukraine via EDA authority but they don’t. 🤷♂️
clear hedge
Provided sanctions don't effect the Iranian oil market I don't think the fact th...
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-not-a-drill-with-gavin-esler/id1593634121?i=1000652509207 this is worth a listen. Prof Ali Ansari, Uni St. Andrews interview.
wintry dust
us congress is far too dysfunctional to guarantee that anything will happen
Ukraine aid is lost. We have to accept this fact.
burnt edge
Guys, let's stay in topic here regarding the Iranian attack on Israel. All talk regarding Ukraine let's keep it in #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe , of which I also have things to correct about from what you guys say regarding EDA
muted cliff
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-not-a-drill-with-gavin-esler/id159...
Really good podcast thanks for linking it
rigid light
iron dome interceptors are actually relatively affordable. obviously they're not...
and with the phase in of the iron beam too
balmy cliff
balmy cliff
A somewhat tongue-in-cheek BDA on the damage to the Israeli airbases, but from the images shown, it seems accurate enough.
Here's where the satellite images came from.
astral wigeon
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/04/103_372907.html
Background: https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korean-origins-iran-rocket-strike-capability-against-israel/
Will post in #1191501377990566018
rare belfry
Pretty well known that many of the Iranian missiles are offshoots of North Korean missiles I think
balmy cliff
celest ridge
Haven't seen anything more concrete yet
https://twitter.com/OALD24/status/1781121223549673818?t=ZFXPTDMA3ujVvddvHkYBww&s=19
Twitter
obtuse raft
Haven't seen anything more concrete yet
https://twitter.com/OALD24/status/178112...
Just saw this on JP but I don’t think they geolocated it
celest ridge
Just saw this on JP but I don’t think they geolocated it
https://www.jpost.com/...
That's an illustrative image. The two videos of seen claiming to be of the strike are pretty bad quality.
obtuse raft
Yup, meant the videos, not the pic
cunning palm
https://x.com/skynewsarabia_b/status/1781122586539143300?s=46&t=07uthhUirHc31SQgzVGUXw this implying jets dogfighting over iraq?
Twitter
celest ridge
https://x.com/skynewsarabia_b/status/1781122586539143300?s=46&t=07uthhUirHc31SQg...
No, stating heavy jet traffic. Like a lot of Overheard planes or flights.
frank willow
Twitter
lofty topaz
https://vxtwitter.com/mattseyler/status/1781132976123678791
^ ABC live here if anyone's wondering
trail summit
"A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran. The official could not confirm whether Syria and Iraq sites were hit as well.
-ABC News' Martha Raddatz"
https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-war/israeli-missiles-have-hit-a-site-in-iran-109405880?id=108860743
lofty topaz
Located in the area? https://www.nti.org/education-center/facilities/isfahan-esfahan-nuclear-technology-center-intc/
frank willow
Twitter
muted bane
Take it with a grain of salt, but from Marco Rubio
Twitter
zenith smelt
2024 Iran/Israel Clashes (NO MEMES)
snow rock
lofty topaz
BAMBOOZLED! ~~<https://vxtwitter.com/FirasMaksad/status/1781139038679793966>~~
I don't think that's legit. There's this random Intel account posting it 7hrs ago https://twitter.com/RoyalIntel_/status/1781031602694336988?t=B8f4ty31qeqt6yO-LyoYHQ&s=19
Twitter
zenith smelt
Hi everyone, I changed the post title to better reflect the situation at this stage. Additionally, I increased the slow mode cooldown to 30 seconds again.
obtuse raft
N12 caption says that a US official confirms that it’s an Israeli attack (from the live stream)
https://www.mako.co.il/news-military/2024_q2/Article-ec6fd3a3fc3fe81027.htm
lofty topaz
And a reminder - take everything with a grain of salt, especially early on in situations like this
obtuse raft
Twitter
subtle horizon
"First reference by the official media in Iran: Fars news agency reports on explosions in Isfahan of unknown origin"
celest ridge
Take it with a grain of salt, but from Marco Rubio
https://x.com/marcorubio/sta...
They do have that capability. They have air launched cruise missiles like the Delilah.
obtuse raft
kan quoting the Iranian media saying it was a military base in NW Isfahan
https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/defense/739905/
obtuse raft
obtuse raft
#1228798424875270196 message
subtle horizon
What's this?
obtuse raft
What's this?
Forgot to add the screenshot from the live stream, the caption says what I mentioned in the above msg
scenic anvil
"Following the report of the rerouting of some flights in the Iranian sky after the explosion in Isfahan, the director of public relations of the airport company announced that flights to Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz, West, North-West and South-West airports have been suspended.
A number of flights have been diverted in the sky of Iran."
https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1781144305807106341
Twitter
obtuse raft
kan quoting the Iranian media saying it was a military base in NW Isfahan
https:...
Itay Blumental says (on air) that Israeli officials are refusing to comment (not surprising)
modern finch
muted bane
Ok, take this with a healthy grain of salt as this is 100% percent speculation, but this might of been the target of the Isreal strike.
It is located NW of Isfahan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Aircraft_Manufacturing_Industries_Corporation
modern finch
NOTAM issued that closed the airspace across western Iran
https://vxtwitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1781143332074258896?s=46&t=Em0jLeT8wFAMkRtrUQ55wA
muted bane
NOTAM issued that closed the airspace across western Iran
https://vxtwitter.com/...
For those who want a visual representation, here is his follow up tweet.
https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1781144125321925103/photo/1
vast spade
Ok, take this with a healthy grain of salt as this is 100% percent speculation, ...
There's also this https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/esfahan.htm
obtuse raft
Channel 13 reporter saying the base was one of the locations from which the attack on Israel was launched
Twitter
snow rock
- Isfahan's TFB 8 airbase (QRJQ+HV Iran)
F-14s are at the Isfahan airbase iirc.
muted bane
> - Isfahan's TFB 8 airbase (QRJQ+HV Iran)
F-14s are at the Isfahan airbase iirc...
Yeah, saw some speculation about that from the "usual source" whose tweet Elon replied to. And I'm just going to leave it at that.
Also wanted to verify his claims, from a more reputable source.
obtuse raft
https://vxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1781142726286754042
kan quoting an Iranian source saying that a few “small objects” were shot down
Alert about a hostile aircraft in the north of israel.
https://t.me/PikudHaOref_all/9296
And an update saying the situation is over
https://t.me/PikudHaOref_all/9297
subtle horizon
https://twitter.com/roysharon11/status/1781150031145214218
"The attack attributed to Israel in Iran: there is currently no Israeli confirmation. The response was planned in such a way that Iran could contain the attack, although even for the assassination of the Iranian general, the intelligence did not estimate that Iran would respond with a missile attack"
(I'm not familiar with this source--but they work at KAN)
Twitter
minor nest
https://fxtwitter.com/afalkhatib/status/1781144136323866977?t=zw0lSDWC33s60yP8L1...
i'm not the largest plane watcher in the world but I distinctly remember seeing a refueling aircraft up and around in that region multiple times
vast spade
i'm not the largest plane watcher in the world but I distinctly remember seeing ...
Sarah, just want to confirm you mean prior to today?
frank willow
Twitter
minor nest
Sarah, just want to confirm you mean prior to today?
yep!
lilac forum
yea, i confirm. but the circle pattern in that area isn't usual.
obtuse raft
Bloomberg:
Israeli officials had notified the US earlier Thursday that they planned to retaliate in the next 24-48 hours, according to two US officials who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations. Spokespeople for the National Security Council and the Pentagon declined to comment.
obtuse raft
https://twitter.com/roysharon11/status/1781150031145214218
"The attack attribut...
He’s Kan’s military correspondent
subtle horizon
https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1781158003242144114
"Reports in Syria: Two airports were attacked tonight - in addition to a radar site in the south of the country"
Twitter
"Three unmanned aerial vehicles were spotted in the sky of Isfahan at 3:30 am. According to Iranian television - they were destroyed in the air"
obtuse raft
The reports on the attack in Iran: according to the American media, manned Israeli aircrafts were not part of the attack, and apparently [only] one site was attacked
Twitter
celest ridge
> The reports on the attack in Iran: according to the American media, manned Isr...
Some reporting it was missiles launched into Iran:
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1245763498/israel-iran-missile-strikes#:~:text=The Israeli military has conducted,explosions in Iraq and Syria.
muted bane
Does anybody know if there is any video or audio posted online of the "explosions" that were heard over Iraq or Syria?
subtle horizon
haven't come across any
obtuse raft
Does anybody know if there is any video or audio posted online of the "explosio...
A couple. You can see it in the live stream
https://www.kan.org.il/live/
Not sure from which location
muted bane
Anybody familiar with Hebrew to catch the looped video they are playing in the stream, that Lilittee just posted?
obtuse raft
Anybody familiar with Hebrew to catch the looped video they are playing in the s...
Im a native speaker
But the videos of the explosions are not captioned
The video in daylight is from the airbase in Isfahan
rain zealot
https://vxtwitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1781157635724550654
quick not-iran-specific clarification, how would a passive defense system like that work, and what's the difference between it and active systems like the israeli countermeasures we saw last saturday?
modern finch
Interesting. I wonder if they just mean no missiles or they’re denying an attack altogether
https://vxtwitter.com/reuters/status/1781167176902222286?s=46&t=Em0jLeT8wFAMkRtrUQ55wA
muted bane
Im a native speaker
Kind of a shot in the dark, but when they keep playing this video I see this title card. Wondering if they are crediting whom shot this video.
hot python
Kind of a shot in the dark, but when they keep playing this video I see this tit...
No, doesn’t look like it.
rain zealot
No, doesn’t look like it.
Note to self: Never trust a language model to translate ever again.
Or google translate:
hot python
Or google translate:
Larger pic:
rain zealot
Larger pic:
Interesting. At least it recognized the name instead of trying to directly translate it, which is what I think it did in mine.
solar lichen
Interesting. I wonder if they just mean no missiles or they’re denying an attack...
LA Times reporting a spokesperson from the Iranian Space Agency mocking the attack as only being quadcopters:
obtuse raft
Or google translate:
In the 2nd image the Heb txt is wrong. It’s not what the caption says and the reason for the incoherent translation
solar lichen
Spox for IR Space Agency:
https://vxtwitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/1781164609736507480
hollow imp
Here we go again
obtuse raft
The video in daylight is from the airbase in Isfahan
👆
rain zealot
LA Times reporting a spokesperson from the Iranian Space Agency mocking the atta...
I wish there were quadcopters with that kind of range, but sadly not.
solar lichen
I *wish* there were quadcopters with that kind of range, but sadly not.
Hmm. Well, it’s a positive (or curious) sign a semi-official source is downplaying the attack.
rain zealot
Hmm. Well, it’s a positive (or curious) sign a semi-official source is downplayi...
If they try to deny all damage and say that the strike was totally unsuccessful due to air defense systems, it's possible they're attempting to claim impunity to drones/missiles like Israel did last weekend.
(I do agree though, the quadcopters line is curious)
vast spade
I'm very skeptical of the quadcopters line
solar lichen
If they try to deny all damage and say that the strike was totally unsuccessful ...
Makes sense, and also gives them an out not to escalate.
rain zealot
I'm very skeptical of the quadcopters line
Same here, but it's more likely to be a way of downplaying and mocking the strike, as Felgolos said, than to be a serious statement of how events unfolded. Also, it's unlikely the Iranian space agency would be the first to know and report that kind of specific detail.
vast spade
Same here, but it's more likely to be a way of downplaying and mocking the strik...
Yep that's exactly what I meant!
wintry dust
markets indicate the threat of escalation is over
rain zealot
markets indicate the threat of escalation is over
Elaborate?
wintry dust
Elaborate?
no energy commodities spiked above their intraday highs, and they all reverted somewhat
modern finch
markets indicate the threat of escalation is over
I don't believe the commodities market is at all a good predictor of geopolitical escalation, market forces are driven by a variety of factors, mostly sociological and psychological, and the reality of the markets often does not reflect reality on the ground
in any case, this is a news channel, we have some limited discussion happening in #israel-palestine if you want to join us there 🙂
wintry dust
I don't believe the commodities market is at all a good predictor of geopolitica...
agree to disagree. Also, market reaction = news
rain zealot
agree to disagree. Also, market reaction = news
Market reaction is a great approximation for the narratives sweeping the public on an issue, I agree. However, concerning doctrinal issues like escalation, given that a majority of market actors are more uninformed and influenced by breaking news and posturing compared to military decision-makers (understatement), I've found that they're a poor proxy for actual escalation risk.
bronze quarry
rain zealot
Posted here because this was the first official report I came across from the mainstream media:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes#blasts-are-reported-near-the-iranian-city-of-isfahan
(sorry if this is paywalled for many people)
My main takeaways:
- Iran admits it was attacked
- ranian Officials won't specify which country attacked it. (According to commentary on the Bloomberg live site posted above)
My conclusion: Iran may still try to pin the attack on domestic terror groups to avoid having to retaliate. This may be quickly disproven if Iran publicly pins the attack on Israel.
cursive grove
I'm very skeptical of the quadcopters line
Israel has used quadcopters(or other multirotors) launched from within iran before, with infiltrators launching them from a few miles away rather than running the whole AD gauntlet of a longer range strike: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/28/world/middleeast/iran-drone-attack.html
Seems like that may be what happened here- see statements refering to "infiltrators" https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/19/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-iran-israel-today-explosions-isfahan?page=with:block-6622138f8f08771b224256b7#block-6622138f8f08771b224256b7
https://archive.ph/Zpn2Z#selection-683.217-687.268 Another NYT piece about the earlier quadcopter attacks.
rain zealot
Israel has used quadcopters(or other multirotors) launched from within iran befo...
That's entirely possible, but given the context and the source of that specific claim, the spokesperson for the Iranian Space Agency, depending on that particular single source seems premature until confirmed by a more reliable one.
rain zealot
https://vxtwitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1781258120896868777
I may be slow, but who is Aurora intel implicating for this missile, Iran or Israel? I’m just mildly confused as to how this relates to 2024 Iran/Israel Clashes.
Unless the missile type means something specific, in which case there’s a connection and I just don’t see it.
burnt edge
I may be slow, but who is Aurora intel implicating for this missile, Iran or Isr...
Rampages are Israeli air to surface missiles, given there were strikes in Baghdad its likely this is one of the missiles Israel used today, and given the state of the missile it would have been intercepted or it failed
This assuming it is indeed a Rampage, which is likely but I wouldn't say confirmed
modern finch
the signals from Tehran are promising, but it remains to be seen if this state of affairs lasts
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19/
celest ridge
https://vxtwitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1781258120896868777
Some people saying it's a Blue Sparrow. I haven't had much time to look.
https://vxtwitter.com/imp_navigator/status/1781248180484804787
thorn plaza
Some people saying it's a Blue Sparrow. I haven't had much time to look.
https:...
By looking at photos of the Blue Sparrow missile, it doesn't seem to have the smaller fins shown on the other pics, which look very similar to that Rampage mockup.
rigid light
Some people saying it's a Blue Sparrow. I haven't had much time to look.
https:...
a blue sparrow would be interesting because despite being air launched ballistic it's supposed to be a target missile
thorn plaza
The Rampage does have a smaller diameter compared to the BS.
celest ridge
By looking at photos of the Blue Sparrow missile, it doesn't seem to have the sm...
The blue sparrow reference image I saw the rocket motor gets wider towards the base while the remnants look like it tapers in. I'm not convinced atm but it could be different variant I was wrong, rocket motor was just concaved from damage
rigid light
yeah the sparrow line has 3 variants iirc
thorn plaza
Yeah, it doesn't quite look like a Rampage either, it has the smaller fins but the launch supports are on a raised section on the Rampage's body, while this one has two. Or at least it seems that way.
thorn plaza
It looks a bit more like a 'Rocks' missile.
The mounting points are different though.
vapid whale
Market reaction is a great approximation for the narratives sweeping the public ...
In this case, oil is linked to OPEC choises about its output, for example. So it may include a risk evaluation by those countries, for anyone who's able to read among the lines. Especially condisered that this is the major iran's resource
celest ridge
It looks a bit more like a 'Rocks' missile.
Source: https://www.timesofisrael.c...
The Rocks has a spine along most of the length of the motor and rocket motor doesn't separate
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-rafael-unveils-long-range-rocks-air-to-surface-missile-1001273992
celest ridge
~~The blue sparrow reference image I saw the rocket motor gets wider towards the...
I was wrong, it doesn't taper in that's just damage to the motor.
@rigid light there are variants with live warheads
https://www.rafael.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Silver-Sparrow.pdf
burnt edge
It is apparently a Sparrow https://vxtwitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1781291061760913833
astral wigeon
This is dated 16 April 2024. We need actual ads that are said to have appeared on the Opensooq marketplace.
https://report.az/en/other-countries/ads-appear-in-jordan-about-sale-of-iranian-missile-debris/
“Citizens offered the debris of the missiles that fell on the areas of Al-Hasa, Marj Al-Hamam, and Karak Governorate for sale on the famous Opensooq website, which specializes in selling vehicles, real estate, and all types of goods, at varying prices.”
https://www.alarabiya.net/social-media/2024/04/14/أردنيون-يعرضون-صواريخ-ايرانية-للبيع-بسعر-مغري
Images of the item postings are featured in this article. In the report.az piece, it is said the postings are removed.
||https://www.khaberni.com/news/أردنيون-يعرضون-صاروخا-إيرانيا-للبيع-على-السوق-المفتوح-648933|| (khaberni.com; postings have phone numbers, although unknown last two digits)
“In reverse search, it turned out that the circulating image of a ‘used rocket display for sale’ was fabricated and modified by Photoshop software”
||https://www.albawaba.net/ar/إختيار-المحرر/صاروخ-إيراني-مستعمل-للبيع-على-السوق-المفتوح-في-الأردن-1561274|| (al-Bawaba; I’d place a spoiler due to the phone number reference, even if the last two digits are covered)
lilac forum
lilac forum
lilac forum
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-iran-gaza-conflict-news-04-1...
SAR data © 2024 Umbra Space, Inc. ( "No extensive damage seen at Isfahan air base in satellite images")
muted bane
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-iran-gaza-conflict-news-04-1...
Per the update:
The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images were taken around 10:18 a.m. local time.
weak relic
any other reflections of a new Israeli attack on "... Iranian-Backed Militia Base in the Babylon Governorate of Eastern Iraq to the South of Baghdad."? (published content by OSINTdefender about 5 mins ago, taken with a grain of salt)
subtle horizon
Osint defender is arguably the worst osint account on twitter so I would wait for anyone else to report that
clear hedge
tiny cargo
Twitter
subtle horizon
Report that it was a weapons storage area/facility that explodedhttps://t.me/N12chat/61503
celest ridge
Report that it was a weapons storage area/facility that explodedhttps://t.me/N12...
That tracks with the first video you posted because you can see all the other munitions cooking off
celest ridge
https://www.twz.com/26582/israeli-firm-turns-ballistic-missile-surrogate-into-ai...
Best article I've seen that goes into what matches the wrecked boosters relative to known Israeli munitions, what doesn't, and reasonable potential explanations
https://www.twz.com/air/mystery-weapon-appears-in-iraqi-field-after-israeli-strike
celest ridge
rain zealot
Concerning this entire state of affairs, I think ex- american diplomat Richard Haas summed it up best in his substack Home and Away: https://richardhaass.substack.com/?sort=new
vapid whale
Concerning this entire state of affairs, I think ex- american diplomat Richard H...
I wonder if all of this may serve as pretext for Iran to polish its proxy games in the long run, as it is being perceived as being cautious. That would be a major diplomatic victory while everyone makes it just a tit for tat, bombing shekspirian novel worth to be read. At the same time, economic indexs show no sign of fear among raising temperature. I don't remember last time we were that confident
burnt edge
Concerning this entire state of affairs, I think ex- american diplomat Richard H...
I invite for caution with anything regarding Haas, as he is one of the former officials who met with Russians last year, against the US law and the country's policy, in order to enforce a peace in Ukraine in terms that would be favourable to Russia. On top of the rejection of these actions by fellow academics and officials
snow rock
Concerning this entire state of affairs, I think ex- american diplomat Richard H...
The tail end of Richard Haas’ piece raises a good point too.
What just happened or more accurately didn’t happen in the Middle East is a rare piece of good news. To this point, Israel and Iran have demonstrated a surprising but welcome willingness and ability to manage their deep differences and avoid war. Informal, implicit rules of the road have evolved between the two antagonists, buttressed by signaling and messaging. It is in important ways reminiscent of how the United States and the Soviet Union managed to keep the Cold War cold. When formal explicit agreements are impossible to come by, diplomatic choreography becomes essential.
rain zealot
I invite for caution with anything regarding Haas, as he is one of the former of...
Thank you for that, however in this specific case, I am not relying on Haas' personal credibility to show that he summarizes the situation well, so my point stands.
burnt edge
Thank you for that, however in this specific case, I am not relying on Haas' per...
Of course, he can actually produce a good, genuine analysis, but it is something to keep in mind. Hence why I ask for caution and not for instant rejection
rain zealot
The tail end of Richard Haas’ piece raises a good point too.
> What just happene...
Agreed, and naming the newsletter "Coreography" is excellent.
In reply to @vapid whale
I wonder if all of this may serve as pretext for Iran to polish its proxy games in the long run, as it is being perceived as being cautious.
Perhaps, but I find this possibility unlikely on the part of the Israelis, especially given Iran's tacit threat regarding where the missiles it used in its main strike came from: Everywhere but Hezbollah, which is the closest well-equipped Iranian proxy to Israel. Three days ago, Hezbollah launched a suicide drone that killed multiple people, a puzzle piece I haven't seen posted in Bellingcat, but also potentially a reminder to the Israelis to let their guard down at their own peril.
Source: https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/watch-hezbollah-suicide-drone-attack-injures-18-israeli-soldiers/
Regarding "polishing their proxies" in the sense of optimizing them, I considered the possibility that the diversity of weaponry Iran used in its strike against Israel was intentionally to test which weaponry was most effective against Israeli AD systems and distribute it to Iran's proxies accordingly. However, the small number that actually did get through is small enough to probably not provide adequate data. So although I don't discount this line of reasoning from Tehran, It remains just speculation.
rain zealot
Of course, he can actually produce a good, genuine analysis, but it is something...
Understood, and it's appreciated.
If you haven't already, you can read Haas' response to these rejections here: https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/jaw-to-jaw-meeting-with-russia-july?sd=pf
(I don't agree or disagree with it, to be honest, I don't remember reading his response, and at best I skimmed it, but it's always good for substantive dialogue if you understand the justifications of the people you disagree with.)
clear hedge
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2024/04/20/iran-might-receive-its-first-su-35-flanker-fighters-from-russia-next-week/?sh=1b3624dd2228 with archive to Iranian 🇮🇷 state media https://archive.is/B2lb1 Сухой Су-35/Su-35’s/Flanker-E from 🇷🇺 to 🇮🇷 claim is they will arrive next week. Crossposting: #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe
clear hedge
US 🇺🇸 sanctions of crude oil refiners and shippers of Iranian Oil 🇮🇷 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-20/new-iran-oil-sanctions-passed-by-us-house-in-foreign-aid-package? with archive: https://archive.is/8btpL PDF 📄 bill text: https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20240415/HSupp_01_xml.pdf tracker: https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8038/titles H.R.8038 technically included in the Ukraine and other aid packages passed.
celest ridge
Strike on Iraq Kalsu base shows fragment of R-13 AAM missile from the ammo depot.
Wasn't used in strike, just fragment found.
https://t.me/abusalehg1/42252
https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/missiles/aa-2-atoll-r-313-missile
celest ridge
NYT reporting two missiles and small drones used in Israeli attack on Iran
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/22/world/middleeast/israel-iran-war-strike.html
rain zealot
NYT reporting two missiles and small drones used in Israeli attack on Iran
https...
Given the intention of the Israeli government to demonstrate strike capability deep inside Iranian territory without provoking a response, (as well as giving Iran plausible deniability), intentionally exploding the second missile seems plausible.
rigid light
celest ridge
CNN gets tour and interview in Tehran covering Iranian ballistic missiles.
https://vxtwitter.com/amanpour/status/1785726499791819228?t=dA4HuqK0Wgxe5OjNyIw1_Q&s=19
mild nest
celest ridge
Twitter
mild nest
Sources familiar with the case of the Jew who was sentenced to death in Iran for a fight tell news here that the death penalty that was supposed to be carried out tomorrow has been postponed for another month https://x.com/kaisos1987/status/1792080142010871875
Twitter
native iron
Twitter
burnt edge
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1792224651201917430?s=46
1 - Really doubtful that this is tied with Israel unless some very strong evidence to back it appears
2 - This is being mainly discussed at #1152181897384960020
3 - Let's not promote OSINTdefender please. It's an account with a history of misinformation, to put it lightly (:
native iron
Ok, got it. I didn’t knew.
burnt edge
All cool!
mild nest
iron dome interceptors are actually relatively affordable. obviously they're not...
That under 100% interception rate might be a feature, not a bug: https://x.com/JacobBaime/status/1794803601279255011
Twitter
rigid light
That under 100% interception rate might be a feature, not a bug: https://x.com/...
i think the iron dome does this calculation to a greater extent, but iirc it's not the only sam that has that aspect to it
rare belfry
i think the iron dome does this calculation to a greater extent, but iirc it's n...
In many of them it's down to the operators' choices
mild nest
Wondering if unconfirmed reports are about him?! https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1818672438508507211
Twitter
mild nest
Twitter
severe pecan
Twitter
plush nymph
Twitter
lofty topaz
Twitter
brazen cradle
You wouldn't do that if it was a missile
spring sapphire
Twitter
minor nest
https://x.com/NicoleGrajewski/status/1819475193393283477
Thanks for posting this, I have a huge blind spot about good Iranian sources and I already see some people I find reliable on that list
celest ridge
You wouldn't do that if it was a missile
Might still do that as the room he was in would have had to be known
minor nest
Twitter
minor nest
Live Updates: U.S. Says Iran Plans Imminent Missile Attack on Israel https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah?smid=nytcore-android-share
upbeat quest
US embassy have told US gov employees in Israel/gaza/west bank to seek shelter: https://x.com/TravelGov/status/1841122087278109136
Twitter
plush nymph
Are there any warning for the civilians in the area? I'm on my way so can't do a big Google.
upbeat quest
Haven't spotted any as of yet.
Link to US embassy announcement on their page: https://il.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-jerusalem-26/
lilac forum
Twitter
rain current
Twitter
marble locust
There is currently a mass shooting event occurring in Jaffa, in Israel
Most tweets of the event show bodies- so there's your warning.
||https://x.com/AdameMedia/status/1841151546865659920||
rain current
Twitter
never seen anything like this https://x.com/JoeTruzman/status/1841154970214940896
Twitter
plush nymph
Launch
marble locust
There is currently a mass shooting event occurring in Jaffa, in Israel
***Most ...
One of the multiple attackers (CCTV shows 2, only 1 with a gun- Not sharing the CCTV image because Discord TOS, both images have them actively shooting someone.) has been shot.
Shows body
||https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/1841153293063442662||
balmy cliff
BBC News - https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
Israel-Lebanon latest: Israeli military says Iran has launched missiles towards Israel - BBC News
rain current
this is huge https://video.i24news.tv/live/brightcove/en
marble locust
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhCeY35PGq0
A lot of lights going through the sky. Likely interceptors?
severe pecan
https://www.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0vo?feature=shared
They're talking about the Iranian attack
muted bane
Launch
Regarding the ongoing missile strike by Iran, I've haven't seen any Airspace closure announcements issued via NOTAMs, and there are some civilian aircraft still airborne. As there were NOTAMs issued before.
balmy cliff
UD261 from Erbil to Damascus https://fr24.com/UBD261/37592472
It looks like this flight going to Syria is turning around.
main dagger
Would not want to be flying in the Middle East right now
balmy cliff
Yeah, clicking on a few different CivAir jets, it looks like all flights into Israel, Lebanon, and western Syria are all diverting
modern finch
Yeah, clicking on a few different CivAir jets, it looks like all flights into Is...
it appears to be so
https://www.flightradar24.com/ELY612/37582e1f
https://www.flightradar24.com/ELY5168/3758da5d
balmy cliff
RRR9961 from Akrotiri https://fr24.com/RRR9961/3759285b
modern finch
Twitter
muted cliff
https://x.com/AFP/status/1841157544338727355
Also reported on sky
plush nymph
https://x.com/AFP/status/1841157544338727355
didnt expect that
modern finch
Also reported on sky
yeah, and BBC, they have a reporter now discussing that iron dome around Jerusalem is operating
balmy cliff
RAF Voyager tankers and Typhoons up north of Cyprus. I would take an educated guess that they're involved in any CAPs vs cruise missiles or UASs fired against Israel.
muted cliff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIFyRRpVAxQ irone dome intercepting
nova trail
plush nymph
Twitter
modern finch
sirens are sounding yet again over Tel Aviv
elfin eagle
More video
modern finch
interceptions on The Sun stream, local time is 1952
muted cliff
Alot of hits it sounds like
modern finch
dozens of detonations over Tel Aviv
probably not cause enough yet to make a new thread for Israel streams but that may be necessary later on as the attack progresses
gloomy hull
Alot of hits it sounds like
I'm seeing interceptions so far but no reports of successful strikes yet, at least on Twitter feed
modern finch
FR24 with a better overview
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1841159930784498165
Twitter
gloomy hull
Are the shootings in Jaffa being covered here or another thread?
muted cliff
I'm seeing interceptions so far but no reports of successful strikes yet, at lea...
smoke on the horizon, I'm going to scrub through and see if I can find the clip of it falling
marble locust
Are the shootings in Jaffa being covered here or another thread?
Here somewhat- I posted 2 things about it, likely related to Iran's recent attack
muted cliff
https://youtu.be/SIFyRRpVAxQ?t=352s | 2024-10-01 | ~19:02:15 UTC+0 | The Sun this timestamp onwards Something accerates into the ground
modern finch
Twitter
gloomy hull
Here somewhat- I posted 2 things about it, likely related to Iran's recent attac...
https://x.com/lebelligerant/status/1841159634599461253
Photos purported of the two shooters (also a body warning FYI)
plush nymph
Are the shootings in Jaffa being covered here or another thread?
would put that into the israel channel
subtle horizon
Twitter
plush nymph
Twitter
plush nymph
modern finch
sceptical of Aurora, but this video is being circulated quite a bit, can anyone else vouch for its veracity?
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1841160712242282848
Twitter
vast spade
sceptical of Aurora, but this video is being circulated quite a bit, can anyone ...
Yeah this is definitely not just coming from aurora. Not sure of origin but I'm seeing older tweets with the same video
dull mist
My goodness, they're hitting way more successfully than in April.
vast spade
Yeah.... It's a lot worse
balmy cliff
Yeah between Hezbollah's rockets from the past few weeks, combined with the lessons Iran learned back in April, you'd think that this attack will definitely do more damage.
modern finch
My goodness, they're hitting ***way*** more successfully than in April.
the reaction time was much shorter, the April attack was telegraphed for weeks and Israeli allies had time to prepare defences
marble locust
My goodness, they're hitting ***way*** more successfully than in April.
Theres also atleast 1 mass shooting event that started at around the same time, reports of another area but that may be panic.
vast spade
I barely saw any interceptors
fluid notch
weirdly not a lot of vids on Snapchat's SnapMap this time around. April's barrage there were a lot more vids of interceptions over Jordan and whatnot (though maybe that's because there were a lot more drones used last time)
minor nest
Theres also atleast 1 mass shooting event that started at around the same time, ...
We have this for anyone interested
modern finch
arrivals at Ben Gurion Airport now closed
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1841163236487446725
Twitter
bronze quarry
Yeah between Hezbollah's rockets from the past few weeks, combined with the less...
Wouldn't be surprised if the April attack was mostly a stalking horse
modern finch
According to Reuters, Jordan too has now suspended air traffic
https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/?
balmy cliff
The Telegraph has stated that "200 missiles launched at Israel":
Nearly 200 missiles have been launched at Israel from Iran, Israel’s army radio announced"
modern finch
From Reuters
fluid notch
lot making it through so long as this isn't an old video https://x.com/Bk_Hanas/status/1841163972801671257
Twitter
modern finch
relevant NOTAM for my fellow airplane nerds
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1841164158147977367
Twitter
eternal folio
lot making it through so long as this isn't an old video https://x.com/Bk_Hanas/...
Doesn't seem to be old considering the number of videos popping up showing a very similar scene
bronze quarry
Any info yet on the nature of the targeting? Mostly military, civilian population centers, etc?
https://x.com/BelalNezar/status/1841164721602331040
(Unsure if legit or old)
Twitter
snow belfry
Unclear if reliable — a number of new videos at @thegeoview
balmy cliff
Not sure who the official is as they were not named:
"A senior Israeli official to The Telegraph that “Iran has declared war directly on the State of Israel”.
They added: “400 ballistic missiles were fired at the State of Israel directly from Iran. The Iranians targeted Israeli civilians.
“It is the duty of the State of Israel and the free world to act against Iran.”
olive yacht
Any info yet on the nature of the targeting? Mostly military, civilian populatio...
upthread someone mentioned Tel Aviv university. So going off that the targets seem to be sites of prestige
snow belfry
Unclear if reliable — a number of new videos at @thegeoview
Twitter
plush nymph
stream monitoring here https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1289417078151053342
terrorist attack here https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1290720113561047151
subtle horizon
stream monitoring here https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/128941707...
rugged sand
From Reuters
do you have the link for that
marble locust
Well, the official Israeli page also posted something similar
maiden venture
This was a lot older than I thought. Worth noting its from close to four hours ago
https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841112825709638070
"The IDF is now targeting Beirut.
More details below"
Twitter
lilac forum
are we doing geolocation of footage here, or news here ?
subtle horizon
News
Anyone who wants to set up a geolocation thread in #1052699912367767684 is free to do so
modern finch
can we make a new thread for footage?
lilac forum
yeah i think we better do another thread
subtle horizon
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1290728025557569669
Vids can still go here too
But any geolocation efforts should go in the other thread
Thanks Seannie
vast spade
sceptical of Aurora, but this video is being circulated quite a bit, can anyone ...
ELINT news had posted this same video and there's a pending community note on it. I can't confirm if the note is accurate
marble locust
ELINT news had posted this same video and there's a pending community note on it...
given how they put "ecceleration"- would like to see additional eyes on that note.
vast spade
I have no experience determining if a video has been altered so I can't comment on the accuracy of the note or the authenticity of the video
trail cloud
Twitter
vast spade
It seems unlikely that it's altered based off the number of videos we're seeing of impacts but that doesn't prove the note is false
marble locust
(do fxtwitter or a different alternative to embed it- Twitter broke embeds like last year and never fixed it)
obtuse raft
Twitter
lilac forum
there's more impacts in live from the last barrage ( live from westbank)
balmy cliff
Twitter
vast spade
there's more impacts in live from the last barrage ( live from westbank)
Which stream
lilac forum
Which stream
AJ
plush nymph
https://x.com/bar_peleg/status/1841164162589729164
are you safe?
modern finch
IDF now announces that all threats have been dealt with and that civilians can leave their shelters, it appears at least this attack is now over
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1841169635183350191
obtuse raft
This one is taken at the entrance of the Elifelet light rail station
https://x.com/bar_peleg/status/1841158441001246832
aprox (32.0583521, 34.7631149)
there’s no street view but you can find pics here:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZiJDXU43NZF7iRXd8?g_st=com.google.maps.preview.copy
Twitter
modern finch
first cas reports
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1841172214785122768
Twitter
severe pecan
Twitter
obtuse raft
are you safe?
I am, thanks! Was at home when it all started
severe pecan
pentagon briefing about the attacks in about 35 mins
modern finch
From FR24, you can see the massive gap where the usually very busy air lanes over Iraq and western Iran have diverted or closed
rigid light
Twitter
vapid whale
"Iranian missiles hit a Zionist gas platform off the coast of ashkelon"
anyone else see reports of this?
https://vxtwitter.com/TVManar1/status/1841175949016232251
edgy crypt
rigid light
https://fixvx.com/i/status/1841163714373840999
PressTV makes me very suspicious
lilac schooner
PressTV makes me very suspicious
ofc, i posted it bc it seems to be a different angle of the same fire
modern finch
preliminary BDA starting to roll in
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1841176926364582092
severe pecan
"BREAKING: An Iranian missile killed a Palestinian man in Jericho, West Bank—identified as Sameh Al Asali, originally from Gaza" ||https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1841174291091775502||
modern finch
||https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1841176128838647941||
that's a dead body, please at least spoiler
olive yacht
wow that;s unlucky
lilac forum
||https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1841176128838647941||
it appears to be booster's fall
severe pecan
that's a dead body, please at least spoiler
sorry, my bad
obtuse raft
preliminary BDA starting to roll in
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1...
The guy in the vid says it’s in Herzeliya (town north of Tel Aviv) next to the Glilot junction and the Cinema City
muted bane
(do fxtwitter or a different alternative to embed it- Twitter broke embeds like ...
Also if you add fixup before the x url
elfin eagle
There have been some videos floating around of apparent impacts on the Nevatim airbase
lilac forum
The guy in the vid says it’s in Herzeliya (town north of Tel Aviv) next to the G...
Glilot is where the mossad hq locate ?
obtuse raft
The guy say it’s the Shalhavot (שלהבות) school in Gedera (גדרה)
Aprox (31.8017454, 34.7885989)
Twitter
lilac forum
naive bolt
Anyone knows if energy directed weapons such as IronBeam or LightBlade are deployed already?
eternal folio
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah/4c00ee44-...
Is this recent?
Hezbollah said they hit there earlier today
zenith smelt
Anyone knows if energy directed weapons such as IronBeam or LightBlade are deplo...
None of those systems are designed to intercept ballistic missiles anyway.
lilac forum
Is this recent?
it was posted few mins ago, it seems from the last barrages
minor nest
Here is a gift link to the NYT live thread
Live Updates: Iran Launches About 200 Ballistic Missiles at Israel https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah?unlocked_article_code=1.O04.vg6T.DLu_TalYo9-k
obtuse raft
Footage taken from the Beit Oved junction
https://x.com/musashisamuray/status/1841158730521723027
Twitter
Twitter
Twitter
ripe smelt
Hi all. I can report that it looks like the rockets managed to evade MTG-1's Lightning Imager's quality control again - https://meteologix.com/il/satellite/375-e-321-n/satellite-cloud-tops-alert-10m-superhd--li/20241001-1700z.html . No thunderstorms in the area but LI saw "lightning", some of it made it to the public feed that actually should have non-lightning signals removed. (P.S. apologies for the poor rendering of some of Arabic placenames)
obtuse raft
Ayalon shopping mall in Ramat Gan
Twitter
ripe smelt
Note the "lightning" dots over Syria and Jordan.
subtle horizon
Hi all. I can report that it looks like the rockets managed to evade MTG-1's Lig...
Thanks for sharing! Really interesting
balmy cliff
Looks like the White House press briefing has finally begun on the issue. According to the briefing, US Navy Arleigh Burke class Destroyers fired on the inbound ballistic missiles.
obtuse raft
The guy say it’s the Shalhavot (שלהבות) school in Gedera (גדרה)
Aprox (31.80174...
Twitter
Twitter
Twitter
balmy cliff
General Ryder in a Pentagon press conference has just stated that the US ships involved were USS Bulkley (DDG-84) and USS Cole (DDG-67); they fired a dozen missiles. He wouldn't specify if SM-3s were used. I'm actually impressed a journalist asked that question.
hot python
https://fixvx.com/i/status/1841163714373840999
bronze quarry
General Ryder in a Pentagon press conference has just stated that the US ships i...
Did they comment on future actions against Iran?
balmy cliff
Did they comment on future actions against Iran?
No, the journalists have asked questions about that to him, but the general won't answer those at this time.
lilac forum
zenith lion
alot of footage holy
obtuse raft
https://vxtwitter.com/JakeGodin/status/1841190173540847703
The person filming is mentioning Nevatim
Twitter
zenith lion
an israeli plan in jordan with no callsign
alot of gps jamming in israel, so any plane positions may not be right source: gpsjam.org
subtle horizon
Ya that's par for the course
obtuse raft
https://vxtwitter.com/AricToler/status/1841200209012854819?t=mnEWH2tOo8Zkld3TlI9...
Same location
#1228798424875270196 message
@dull mist
zenith lion
im hearing some pilot voice traffic on HF, 8 MHz, aeronautical band
dull mist
Yep, Mossad right next door to Cinema City
split orchid
If IDF air defenses were saturated, it makes sense that they would let the airbases get hit first. It takes very accurate missiles to actually do lasting harm to the aircraft, fuel and munitions there.
muted bane
Regarding the missile strike, found a video showing a booster of an alleged Fatah Hypersonic missile, and requesting a ID for this booster.
https://fixupx.com/sprinterfamily/status/1841185765222400412?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw
Also saw this posted from Syria.
https://fixupx.com/fseifikaran/status/1841176458829705633?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw
wintry isle
If IDF air defenses were saturated, it makes sense that they would let the airba...
I can get behind this reasoning, coms are first targets
zenith lion
zenith lion
https://voca.ro/1kXxPVjHeZRh
aviation panic traffic on 8879 kHz
3 israeli military planes, likely not the correct location because of GPS jamming
zenith lion
aviation panic traffic on 8879 kHz
gilded widget
AIS hijacking/spoofing outside Tehran:
https://vxtwitter.com/TankerTrackers/status/1841192116682440910
subtle horizon
I deleted this, please read and follow our #rules
royal tapir
That's the G550 CAEW(Conformal Airborne Early Warning) in case someone is unaware. It's more or less equivalent in function to a E-3 AEW but smaller and with indigenous Israeli radar and electronics.
rough summit
Yep, Mossad right next door to Cinema City
I just passed next to a hit on the road close to 32.144054, 34.810578 (just after Glilot Maarav interchange). Hard to say for sure, but looked like a direct hit more than an interception, given the damage on the side of the highway.
lilac forum
I just passed next to a hit on the road close to 32.144054, 34.810578 (just aft...
it is the same place in this footage ?
https://fxtwitter.com/awk__36/status/1841195666401308927
royal tapir
I just passed next to a hit on the road close to 32.144054, 34.810578 (just aft...
This the same place or different?
#1228798424875270196 message
rough summit
This the same place or different?
https://discord.com/channels/7097528842578821...
This could match yes. A bit tricky to say because a lot changed in the area in the last year compared to Google maps. But the impact was on the driver's left and in the video it's on the driver's right
marble locust
There is a video of the intercepted missile landing on the one (known) fatality of the barrage- It's not pretty.
Lands on him at an insane rate of speed-doesn't blow up, wouldn't recommend looking it up.
hot python
It's so insane it didn't feel real to me. Cartoonish. But the location tracks.
subtle horizon
Do not post here pls
muted bane
Do not post here pls
There is a SFW screenshot moments before impact, am I good to post that with proper censor tags?
subtle horizon
With the goal of warning people to not watch the video that begins with that screenshot, yes plesae go ahead
muted bane
With the goal of warning people to not watch the video that begins with that scr...
Still Screenshot, moments before impact regarding the only know fatality of today's missile barrage.
CW: moment before death, and trust me when I say this is the SFW version, there is video and its bad, really bad
zenith lion
1ST PICTURE:
israeli navy hybrid modem spotted on 8780 kHz, this is a spectrogram view of its signal, as you can see on the start of the signal, there is a beep, then comes a weak segment of the signal at the start where the 4 tones are, then it gets amplified way stronger and in the background there is a signal leak, indicating there are multiple transmitters across israel likely.
2ND PICTURE:
we can see white noise slowly growing on the spectrogram where the modem is, indicating there is microphone feedback on the transmitter, an error in transmitting.```
a weaker transmitter now appeared.
the audio of the microphone feedback on israeli navy's modem
https://voca.ro/1d8sbzLTIP5I
astral holly
Ex-PM Bennett calls for strikes on Iran's nuclear sites https://x.com/naftalibennett/status/1841222685638177225?t=rpp5ebDVX7LHrHVfGPBbhA&s=19
Twitter
split orchid
And apparently its power plants in general
river swift
yeah, he apparently thinks he can do regime change via airstrike, which is, ok, sure, you can try
radiant pelican
yeah, he apparently thinks he can do regime change via airstrike, which is, ok, ...
"We can grant the Iranian people an opportunity to rise up and shake off the regime that tyrannizes its women and daughters." They will greet Israeli bombs as liberators apparently.
reef pecan
fickle slate
I have a possibly stupid question but I’ll ask anyway: the missiles tonight are very visible on all the footage available with some bright yellow/red light, as if they had a thruster on. I thought ballistic missiles were firing from the ground and during their ascent but then gravity was bringing them down to the target. How do these missiles tonight work?
Or are they rockets? Were they fired from Iran and burned fuel all the way to Israel?
Or is this some terminal impact thruster turning on in the final phase to give it extra speed and try and dodge the iron dome interceptions?
past knot
I have a possibly stupid question but I’ll ask anyway: the missiles tonight are ...
They descent very fast - so they heat up from air friction and start to radiate visible light [I'm not an expert, please correct me if I'm wrong].
radiant pelican
I have a possibly stupid question but I’ll ask anyway: the missiles tonight are ...
In previous videos hamas rockets have been visible and in iron dome interceptions the interceptors are visible and the debris from rockets hit by iron dome interceptors are visible. A booster stage still has unburnt fuel in it.
celest ridge
Not sure how they are making the distinction from the Kheibar Shekan tbh
https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1841261830863544827
Twitter
crisp jungle
Not sure how they are making the distinction from the Kheibar Shekan tbh
https:/...
Colour maybe? Fattah-1 are painted black, kheibar shekan are in a beige tone. Otherwise, the booster section/ primary stage looks virtually identical.
celest ridge
Colour maybe? Fattah-1 are painted black, kheibar shekan are in a beige tone. Ot...
I'm not sure all Kheibar Shekans are painted beige. Also Iran is claiming that this attack is the first use of the Fattah, which means they are saying they didn't use any in April.
Might be their determination:
https://x.com/shendre3000/status/1841226787462005119
Twitter
crisp jungle
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/kheibar-shekan--the-state-of-the-art-missile-that-pounded-is here is also some kind of band visible.. are we sure they aren't identical except for the reentry vehicle and the paintjob?
celest ridge
I think they are identical.
zenith lion
```source: me
1ST PICTURE:
israeli navy hybrid modem spotted on 8780 kHz, this i...
more of this to come later
fickle slate
They descent very fast - so they heat up from air friction and start to radiate ...
Here you can see clearly the "meteor"-like burn from the atmosphere re-entry, some of them clearly get extinguished before ground contact. But most of them carry some "secondary" fire all the way to the ground that does not seem to be diminishing in brightness, which is the part I wonder about. What is burning still so low in altitude?
is it just the paint burning?
I just find it surprising that they are still burning at all in that video. Feels like that is not by design 😄
rough summit
https://t.me/akrav262626/77670 Iranian missile (Emad?) this morning in the Negev
zenith lion
israeli navy morse decoded last night at 20.25 UTC
decoded by me with my own receiver, my yt channel about these signals is on my connections page on my account
^ not decrypted, illegal by any means if done so
I just spotted a "KAT6" in the decoded text
also I see an "EYE"
warped girder
Surely that’s encrypted in some way?
zenith lion
Surely that’s encrypted in some way?
Yes it is, reversed hebrew and a bit of code, there was a person who showed on youtube how to decrypt it then he went missing afterwards, I will not be posting anything relating to decrypting these transmissions due to safety and the law.
warped girder
Yes it is, reversed hebrew and a bit of code, there was a person who showed on y...
Surprised they’d use something like that. Would expect actual cryptography on military comms?
zenith lion
Surprised they’d use something like that. Would expect actual cryptography on mi...
Russian comms arent encrypted either, I hear them daily in my monitoring station
rose sedge
what is the significance of KAT6 and EYE?
zenith lion
what is the significance of KAT6 and EYE?
it's definitely orders sent over code, example: "EYE" could mean "PREPARE FOR BATTLE", it may not mean that but thats an example, KAT6 could also have the same meaning as my previous example
also IDF has radio transmitters on 30-40 MHz
a cheap low VHF radio transceiver could receive these comms, preferably a modded quansheng UV-K5 or an RTL-SDR V4 with a loop antenna.
their comms are not encrypted digitally and they dont use any coded words, so listening to this is legal, because all you did was just tune in
rose sedge
their comms are not encrypted digitally and they dont use any coded words, so li...
Thisis really fascinating to me as I've been listening to random radios online, sent you a FR as I want to learn more but no pressure to accept
zenith lion
Thisis really fascinating to me as I've been listening to random radios online, ...
I also do cybersec and OSINT for 10 years, you can ask me about that topic too
OSINT not much in the past 10 years, peaked in 2021 but yeah, I did it before too a little.
eternal folio
Also sent a FR, would appreciate some advice 🤝
river swift
celest ridge
IDF comments on damage:
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1841436923363017211?t=H2bVSgfXtYbcoKcO6jPssA&s=19
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1841439992947610073?t=t_ip1IcIl3bwnN6F8B2RzQ&s=19
Twitter
Twitter
heady bloom
split orchid
Here you can see clearly the "meteor"-like burn from the atmosphere re-entry, so...
A lot of that could be debris that has already been struck by interceptors, and booster rockets that separated from warheads.
fickle slate
A lot of that could be debris that has already been struck by interceptors, and ...
yeah I was wondering and pretty much waiting to see some first damage assessments, it all felt for the most part imprecise and possibly fuel explosions rather than warheads in middle of nowhere,etc.
royal tapir
IDF comments on damage:
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1841436923363017211?t=...
With Iran having made significant progress on their BMs accuracy in the last decade, and with the amount of impacts compared to April no harm having been done to critical infrastructural seems unlikely, but on the other hand it'd make little sense to be untruthful since it's an inevitability that commercial satellites gets images of the AB soon.
gilded widget
I also do cybersec and OSINT for 10 years, you can ask me about that topic too
I wonder if there might be a value/interest in creating a "radio/sdr for osint" thread @eternal folio @rose sedge @stiff stump @vapid whale - I'm just getting started in that area of interest myself.
past knot
Here you can see clearly the "meteor"-like burn from the atmosphere re-entry, so...
[not confident about the following]
The parts that glow brightly - sections from which warheads detach.
These parts glow/burn brighter because they are less smooth [more air friction] than warheads - they stop being visible because they slow down fast.
And warheads just do not loose enough speed to stop glowing.
zenith lion
Israel EAS alerts map
8 dead, 8 injured after a shooting happened in Jaffa, Israel, the 2 gunmen are pronounced dead as of today.
It appears that the shooters origins are from Hebron, West Bank, Palestine, I suspect the shooting is politically motivated due to israel's recent bulldozing in the West Bank.
minor nest
8 dead, 8 injured after a shooting happened in Jaffa, Israel, the 2 gunmen are p...
Can you provide a link to where you found this information?
zenith lion
Can you provide a link to where you found this information?
alright, yes (my bad, forgot to post the source)
minor nest
Right now all we have to go on is "feline_kat in Discord said so", and we're an open source research community so we like to evaluate the sources 🙂 thanks very much!
zenith lion
Right now all we have to go on is "feline_kat in Discord said so", and we're an ...
sorry 🙂 I keep forgetting to post the source after I did my own analysis on that israeli signal 😅
minor nest
It'll become second nature. Soon you'll start posting sources on your own grocery list
zenith lion
It'll become second nature. Soon you'll start posting sources on your own grocer...
im doing some other signal analysis tonight, maybe even analysis on the entire war later 
zenith lion
an iranian missile hitting a road in Tel Aviv, Israel https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fu8rnv/cctv_footage_of_an_iranian_ballistic_missile/
bronze quarry
Do we have a good account of the damage done by the missiles in terms of IDF military assets and structures?
vapid whale
I wonder if there might be a value/interest in creating a "radio/sdr for osint"...
The biggest thing is collecting IQ sample data if at all possible that makes the analysis work a lot easier
But I understand this isn’t always possible
zenith lion
I wrote something on #show-your-work
balmy cliff
With Iran having made significant progress on their BMs accuracy in the last dec...
Israeli airbases have plenty of hardened aircraft shelters (HASs). Anything other than that direct hit probably won't penetrate them.
royal tapir
Israeli airbases have plenty of hardened aircraft shelters (HASs). Anything othe...
I don't think I mentioned any shelters being hit, even under that hypothetical it's hardly critical infrastructure since while the aircraft may be unavailable the airfield is fully functional. By critical infrastructure I'm primarily talking about any runway and runway-grade taxiways.
balmy cliff
I don't think I mentioned any shelters being hit, even under that hypothetical i...
Unless Iran's missiles contained cluster mines, runways and taxiways take hours to restore to operational capability rather than days, with the right equipment.
Most Cold War era runway denial weapons were basically cluster bombs and mines to cause as much damage as possible, and to damage repair equipment too. Craters formed by conventional warheads will be repaired rapidly, as happened back in April.
lilac forum
Do we have a good account of the damage done by the missiles in terms of IDF mil...
we have only Geolocations's posts of confirmed impacts in two airbases, Tel Nov and Nevatim which hosts F 35 squadrons.
likely there's military censorship order to israeli media.
bronze quarry
Okay. Was seeing some claims floating around that "half the f35s were destroyed"
lilac forum
I hope we get to see satellite imagery of theses impacts on the air bases, though I highly doubt
crude wraith
I've seen this https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1841180637996163157?t=YqFWECx3x8-XI3_9jJYsfw&s=19 claiming 20 f35s damaged or destroyed but no source and I don't know who the poster is.
Twitter
olive yacht
hugely unlikely unless the F-35s were sitting out in the open
crude wraith
Yeah that's my thoughts as well
rigid light
hugely unlikely unless the F-35s were sitting out in the open
also with f-35s being a key strategic asset they were likely all evacuated/protected
if we're going to see any IAF losses it'll likely be less important assets (think trainers, transport helicopters, the like)
wintry dust
rigid light
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1841501216641098118 clouds over nevatim
Twitter
astral holly
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1841501216641098118 clouds over nevatim
Is that normal cloud obscuring or is the post above implying it was done deliberately? Trying to understand what I'm looking at.
subtle horizon
Those are normal clouds
It's not like sat image providers are photoshopping cloud over
lilac forum
there's clouds too over the Tel Nov base ?
split orchid
I don't think I mentioned any shelters being hit, even under that hypothetical i...
Runways can usually be brought back online in hours or days, at least for emergency use.
(So while I don't disagree that runways are critical infrastructure, cratering one would not really have much significance in comparison with everything else you could put in that category, except in the short term if Israel was trying to run sorties at crazed tempo.)
lilac forum
Are there any available sources for SAR imagery providers ? it can capture even if there's clouds
I recall we previously had SAR images of the S300 radar site in Iran after an Israel attack.
gaunt aspen
Are there any available sources for SAR imagery providers ? it can capture even...
Umbra usually good but restricted in the area
royal kite
Those are normal clouds
That eastern edge seems really really well-defined...
subtle horizon
That's an artfiact from how the images are stitched together
The satellite passes over an area and takes an image that comes out as a long, rectangular strip
What you're seeing in that image is literally the edge of the image. Another satellite would pass over the adjacent space, take its image, and then those two rectangular strips would be stictched together to make it seem like one large image.
But that second pass hasn't happened yet, hence why you see that well-defined edge
Again, it's literally the edge of the image. The sensor on the satellite has a limit on how much information in can capture in exactly the same sense that your camera phone can't take a picture of what's behind you if you're using the back camera
river swift
Bit more info and a Bellingcat shoutout: https://www.npr.org/2024/10/02/nx-s1-5135646/iran-missile-strike-israel-appears-to-hit-some-targets
red hill
anyone else seeing IDF medevac videos making the rounds? i've seen one with UH-60s and one using CH-53s
dawn osprey
anyone else seeing IDF medevac videos making the rounds? i've seen one with UH-6...
probably the videos of the medevac from today's clashes in #1287747305050472560
static estuary
Bit more info and a Bellingcat shoutout: https://www.npr.org/2024/10/02/nx-s1-51...
Jake and I spent an hour yesterday figuring out where that Nevatim video was shot. The cafe chairs are what finally did it!
zenith lion
19.56 UTC ISRAELI TELEGRAPH STATION STATUS: NO TRAFFIC BEING SENT, IDLE.
ISRAELI AIRFORCE TRANSMITTER FEEDBACK AUDIBLE, POSSIBLE TRAFFIC TO BE SENT SOON.
abrupt stop in the feedback, possibly was about to send a message and stopped, or something else
subtle horizon
@zenith lion Hey! Thanks for this it's really interesting
Can you make a post for it? And maybe call it "IDF Signals" or something? That way we can keep this channel clear for sharing news and developments
zenith lion
<@1243865553244786723> Hey! Thanks for this it's really interesting
Can you mak...
yes, that would be a great idea, when you sent that I was already writing an article about these signals, I will post them on pastebin on #show-your-work.
river swift
Israel apparently is caught up in regime change thinking
They think that they can topple the Iranian regime and "remake the Middle East"
vapid whale
They think that they can topple the Iranian regime and "remake the Middle East"
I don’t think either of those are remotely a goal for Israel, Responding militarily to a ballistic missile attack ≠ seeking regime change for remaking an entire region
vapid whale
Supporting the idea of something doesn’t mean you’re trying to make it happen. Any sane person “supports” an iran free of the IRGC, but we are in an era of forever regimes. if the irgc was going to fall it would’ve happened in 2022. Digital fascism has proven its effectiveness in Russia china iran North Korea and most recently Venezuela
zenith lion
I posted a new article on israeli signals on #show-your-work, has pictures and audio of the voice traffic
vapid whale
I posted a new article on israeli signals on <#709760265268363273>, has pictures...
Very cool stuff signals are so fascinating 😍😍
river swift
Supporting the idea of something doesn’t mean you’re trying to make it happen. A...
I don't know about forever regimes, but I do think that the Israeli right wing believes that they have the upper hand politically to pursue an aggressive war making policy that has regime change as a strategic goal
We have seen previous Israeli governments become seized with this vision, as with the original invasion of Lebanon
vapid whale
I don't know about forever regimes, but I do think that the Israeli right wing b...
Okay I’ll agree with you perhaps in theory it’s a wish of theirs, but it’s not remotely feasible. Israel and iran can’t even wage a long direct war, eventually iran will run out of missiles that can reach Israel and Israel can’t rely on its 50 year old tanker jets for a prolonged war. Airframe fatigue is real, I think at best perhaps 2-3 more exchanges like this at maximum. A point will come where both countries will have to stop, as such both countries want to inflict maximum damage until then
river swift
I think their success in targeting Hizbullah has given them a bit of victory disease. Netanyahu has seen his polling recover; political incentives all points in one direction, a policy of aggressive war
vapid whale
I think their success in targeting Hizbullah has given them a bit of victory dis...
Targeting a country you border vs targeting a country all but out of reach are two different things, both bibi and the supreme leader know they can’t keep this up forever
It’s the same reason Mexico didn’t attack Ecuador for invading their embassy, they can’t. They don’t have the ability to wage a direct war against each other
river swift
I think you may be thinking a bit more rationally than several political leaders atm
vapid whale
I think you may be thinking a bit more rationally than several political leaders...
Hah
split orchid
War with Iran could be entirely rational, precisely because there is no shared border. Think of war as a political/PR stunt for the government.
vapid whale
War with Iran could be entirely rational, precisely because there is no shared b...
Motive ✅
Means❌
Opportunity ✅
split orchid
Iran's strikes on Israel have been essentially symbolic political stunts, and now Israel knows they are easy to absorb. Iran's biggest deterrent preventing Israeli attacks has been the ability to stir up trouble via Hezbollah, etc. But now Hezbollah is on the back foot. Every militant group who can target Israel is already doing so. Hence, Tel Aviv sees no further significant blowback from striking Iran. That is rational.
zenith lion
I got this image from sentinel hub's eo browser, data is from 1st October 2024, Southern Lebanon, coordinates are 33.15092, 35.49305
vapid whale
Iran's strikes on Israel have been essentially symbolic political stunts, and no...
Iran will absolutely be struck by Israel yes but a long war isn’t really possible, at least until the Israeli Air Force gets newer tankers
subtle horizon
Friends can we keep this channel open for news and developments? Maybe take the convo to #israel-palestine
split orchid
Motive ✅
Means❌
Opportunity ✅
Israel has the means to make a lot of impressive footage of oil refineries on fire, etc. It could even harm Iran's economy quite a bit. I agree that a high intensity war can't exactly happen. That's why I call it a political demonstration.
zenith lion
we could move to #open-source-general
vapid whale
I wanna continue this convo… where are we taking it lol
subtle horizon
It's about Israel/Iran, so let's go to #israel-palestine
zenith lion
Israeli attacks have killed 46 people in Lebanon in last 24 hours
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/10/1/israels-war-on-gaza-israel-says-it-will-respond-to-iran-missile-attacks?update=3218316
reef pecan
There's footage of missiles aimed at and hitting/missing something in the Mediterranean. As far as we know, nothing actually got hit there, right? The oil/gas rig just happened to be flaring at the time?
obtuse raft
Unusual alert and sirens for a possible hostile aircraft in Bat Yam, a town south of TLV
split orchid
There's footage of missiles aimed at and hitting/missing something in the Medite...
Probably just inaccurate missiles. They could have been struck by interceptors and knocked off course as well
minor nest
There's footage of missiles aimed at and hitting/missing something in the Medite...
Hi, where is this from, please?
balmy cliff
reef pecan
Hi, where is this from, please?
I'm honestly not 100% sure, it was posted in the project owl server by some guy who is adamant that the platform was hit
@minor nest #1128828928795082852 message
Original video posted with the caption "From my dad's balcony"
minor nest
I'm honestly not 100% sure, it was posted in the project owl server by some guy ...
Thanks. Giving us that information helps 🙂
steady needle
(not sure if this is the right place to post this) I'm getting highly alarming early reporting from inside Syria from live ua map and some local Syrian news of Possible Israeli attacks, does anyone have eyes or ears on the area what I'm hearing is quite bad. links: (https://syrianobserver.com/foreign-actors/southern-syria-israel-targets-regime-sites-including-two-military-airports.html) (https://x.com/alhadath_brk/status/1841656386456805463)
Twitter
subtle horizon
(not sure if this is the right place to post this) I'm getting highly alarming e...
Hi! Welcome to the server
We encourage all members to post verifiable information with links and sources, and to not post rumours
If you have any links to provide evidence of this reporting that you're refering to, please share them here. But otherwise, please keep in mind that this is an open source research server and that as a result, by definition, we need open sources
steady needle
Added to original post, Sorry about not including them.
lilac forum
https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates
Nevatim Air base
how AP got these imagery from planet labs without clouds ? or that part of the base wasn't there clouds over it ?
https://x.com/NewsDudeAP/status/1841592868399460431
Twitter
subtle horizon
how AP got these imagery from planet labs without clouds ? or that part of the ...
New image taken at a time when it wasn't cloudy
hollow imp
Twitter
steady needle
It's as I feared. Also wouldn't surprise me if this event was linked to this observation though this is speculation. #show-your-work message
minor nest
Ahhh shit
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1841676141276627351?t=4KMI7EEpz4GKJc...
Any sources besides this guy?
hollow imp
Daily express and the mirror
This links back to a Syrian news network, all from an hour ago when the original blast was reported
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-syria-explosion-large-blast-33808361
minor nest
So this is the original source https://x.com/SyriawatanNews?s=09
Twitter
rotund kiln
Do y'all mind if I post my Geolocation here
reef pecan
Do y'all mind if I post my Geolocation here
i mean sure
rotund kiln
Twitter
rigid light
There's footage of missiles aimed at and hitting/missing something in the Medite...
It's hard to be 100% sure without knowing the specifics of the platform, but it could be either:
-
It began flaring once the attack was reported as imminent for safety
-
A lot of platforms still have an open flare 24/7 because it's cheaper than getting rid of the LNG in other ways
edgy crypt
Are there only AP satellite pictures?
celest ridge
Are there only AP satellite pictures?
From what's been released publicly, yes. Some providers have restrictions on publication so there could be more out there.
lilac forum
no sat images of the north part of the base yet
which where fighter jets shelters and infrastructure are
zenith lion
ANNOUNCEMENT TO ALL SDR/RF HOBBYISTS HERE: A SOLAR STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING, MEANING THERE WILL BE WEAK HF PROPAGATION, SO THIS MEANS HEARING ANY ISRAELI SIGNALS AT THIS MOMENT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH.
subtle horizon
``ANNOUNCEMENT TO ALL SDR/RF HOBBYISTS HERE: A SOLAR STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING,...
Hi, can you please put eveything related to radio comms/signals in this channel pls?
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1291445957774282894
That way we can keep this one open for breaking news from the ground
mortal raft
Twitter
balmy cliff
river swift
Good podcast on the missile attack https://pca.st/episode/4cb14c3e-b88b-456d-92ce-9c363dfa4869
balmy cliff
It's rather amazing the amount of people/bots online who are stating that the Iron Dome failed a couple of days ago as some ballistic missiles got through.
However, the Iron Dome is not for ballistic missile defence and is more aimed at shorter ranged missiles, or long range but subsonic missiles/drones, such cruise missiles.
David's Sling and Arrow 2/3 are aimed at threats like BMs.
river swift
That's quite a few
Will be interesting to see imagery of damage at Tel Nof if/when it becomes available
vapid whale
It's rather amazing the amount of people/bots online who are stating that the Ir...
iron dome is just a colloquial term anyways used to describe all the broad israeli air defense network
crisp jungle
iron dome is just a colloquial term anyways used to describe all the broad israe...
No, the short range missile defense system is actually named iron dome.
zenith lion
Twitter
lilac forum
https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2024/10/04/imint-irans-strike-on-nevatim-airbase/ ( have new images)
zenith lion
dull helm
Im not sure anything that man says to the press is actually indicative of what he says to Netanyahu behind closed doors. US arms supplies pour into Israel regardless of how and where they are used. When compared to how Arms supplies come with steadfast constraints when delivered to Ukraine its very illustrative of the double standards in play when it comes to Israel's support
safe bobcat
Unlike Israel or Russia, Ukraine has neither nukes or strong influence in US politics.
astral holly
There is a very instructive document I encourage people to read related to the Pentagon's thinking regaridng the on US arms transfer to Israel. It's from 2008 - before Israel's "quantitative military edge" became explicit US law - and highlights just how much the region has returned to and even the deepened pre-Arab Spring US-Arab-Israeli trilateral relationship. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/us-foreign-policy-and-israels-qualitative-military-edge-need-common-vision
river swift
Anyone know if anyone has gotten Tel Nof imagery yet?
dull helm
Unlike Israel or Russia, Ukraine has neither nukes or strong influence in US pol...
Yes the West persuaded Ukraine to give up its nukes with the promise of Western Protection..hmm
balmy cliff
Iran ordered its airports to close and cancelled all flights overnight ahead of the October 7 anniversary.
State media cited “operational restrictions” and gave no further details. Iran implemented similar restrictions on Tuesday before it launched missiles at Israel, in an attack to which Israel vowed to respond.
astral holly
celest ridge
astral holly
I keep reading it's a drill.
https://x.com/evacool_/status/1843430326514634791
Twitter
eternal folio
Iran ordered its airports to close and cancelled all flights overnight ahead of ...
For what it's worth they also did the same around last year when they were "testing some new things"
I'm paraphrasing but the idea is the same
plush nymph
bronze quarry
*"After Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel last week, U.S. military officials discussed options for joining Israel in its retaliation against Iran, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the discussions.
The U.S. has long supported Israel with intelligence and that support could continue during Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Iran, the two officials said. Senior U.S. military officials have also discussed conducting very limited strikes against Iranian targets, the two officials said. Strikes inside Iran have been discussed, as have strikes on targets outside Iran, though strikes of any kind are less likely than intelligence sharing, the officials said."*
river swift
THAAD is obviously not meant to counter Hez drones, but Iranian retaliatory missile strikes post Israel's pending attack
celest ridge
river swift
The US only has seven of these
lilac forum
The US only has seven of these
Twitter
red heart
re: that tweet and/or the previous discord message, probably worth pointing out that public estimates of military capabilities are just that – public estimates of military capabilities
river swift
re: that tweet and/or the previous discord message, probably worth pointing out ...
The number of THAAD batteries is not classified. These are US Army operated units. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12645/2
red heart
The number of THAAD batteries is not classified. These are US Army operated unit...
missile intercept capabilities rank pretty high on the list of things deception doctrine applies to though 🤷♂️
river swift
did anyone ever find imagery of Tel Nof airbase damage?
Seems that only the hits at Nevatim were publicly available, but there was a secondary explosion at Tel Nof and I don't recall ever seeing sat imagery there
celest ridge
Seems that only the hits at Nevatim were publicly available, but there was a sec...
Twitter
river swift
https://x.com/dex_eve/status/1846307978695115101?t=Qog-ZzA1cpk5AT-dsfjrKQ&s=19
i wonder why that is? Just lucky cloud cover, or did Israel/US reach out to public sat photo providers to prevent any public release of damage?
mortal raft
Twitter
astral holly
Twitter
eternal folio
Yeah
mortal raft
Twitter
eternal folio
mortal raft
Twitter
balmy cliff
BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v67j88e0t
Israel says it's conducting 'precise strikes on military targets' in Iran - BBC News
split orchid
Israel has air-launched BMs?
split orchid
brand new
celest ridge
Israel has air-launched BMs?
LORA, ROCKS, Blue Sparrow/missile derived from Blue Sparrow booster
river swift
https://fixupx.com/manniefabian/status/1849974147784253557
a bit embarrassing considering this account is mostly a stenographer for IDF press releases
"Mohammad Marandi, a conservative political analyst close to Iran’s government, downplayed Israel’s attacks in an interview with Al Jazeera television, before the strikes were over. Mr. Marandi said Iran was expecting much more fierce attacks and that it was fully equipped to win a war with Israel."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/25/world/israel-lebanon-gaza-iran/71aa2fe2-f79f-5022-94de-b0f0b448557b?smid=url-share "Fars News, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said that Israel attacked several military bases located in the western and southern part of Tehran. IRNA, Iran’s state news agency, reported that Imam Khomeini International Airport has been operational and that the civil aviation agency has not issued an order to cancel flights."
bronze quarry
The attacks are concluded?
compact smelt
The attacks are concluded?
It seems to be an ongoing situation.
https://fixupx.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1849975368897462580
celest ridge
The attacks are concluded?
Twitter
modern finch
IDF declares attacks over
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1850009409461579879?s=46&t=Em0jLeT8wFAMkRtrUQ55wA
Twitter
plush nymph
Twitter
tranquil saddle
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1850006855625445782
That seems like a low number for supposedly being in 3 waves
celest ridge
That seems like a low number for supposedly being in 3 waves
Just depends on how they counr/define a target. Are they counting all targets at one installation as one target? A AD system with multiple vehicles as one?
brazen verge
Any satellite imagery of the targets available yet?
celest ridge
Any satellite imagery of the targets available yet?
Haven't seen any public yet but Samir marked some buildings targeted based off new images.
https://x.com/obretix/status/1850166103474843933?t=NaoGD5-4aGG39bFraE7Iig&s=19
Twitter
celest ridge
bronze quarry
Twitter
celest ridge
balmy cliff
silver hawk
Twitter
echo pollen
https://x.com/H4ckManac/status/1856056429368778967
That video is from the Elad hack, i assume the reference to the data is also.
The group did post some photos and floor plans of what they claim to be Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, but they don't appear to have made any claims of having any data or having hacked the facility at all.
silver hawk
That video is from the Elad hack, i assume the reference to the data is also.
Th...
You're right, sorry for the unverified source. The video comes from the Elad Hack but the author of the post linked it to a Nuclear Research Center.
It seems there are two nuclear research centers that have been hacked though: Soreq & Shimon Peres Negev.
Source: https://t.me/handala_hack3
echo pollen
You're right, sorry for the unverified source. The video comes from the Elad Hac...
I've been keeping an eye on their activity for a while, I had a look back but they do not seem to have claimed to have hacked Shimon Peres Negev, just posted photos of the site.
They did claim that they obtained 20gb of data by infiltrating the network of Soreq's safety unit, but so far all that has been released are a handful of photos, slides and floor plans.
raven dune
What do you think will happen next between Israel and Iran? Is there a possibility that the situation will ease if Donald Trump becomes President again? Are any major escalations expected between the two countries in the near future? It seems that Iran is wary of further escalation, while Israel is showing more resistance, especially in terms of its dealings with Gaza and Lebanon. While Israel still has many challenges to face, what are your predictions for the future of this conflict and the broader regional dynamics?
minor nest
What do you think will happen next between Israel and Iran? Is there a possibili...
Hi AMG, generally this type of discussion isn't something we see too much of on the discord because people share open-source information vs making predictions about the future.
echo pollen
The hacking group Handala are claiming after 4 months of work to have hacked the SSV blockchain network after teasing a “special blow” to mossad the last few days.
They allege the network was being used for financing/money laundering and by mossad.
They are also claiming 8tb data dumped with 1tb to be released.
Given rules around linking to hacking materials im leaving links out of this post, though more details and images claiming to be of obtained files/folders are posted on their X and telegram pages which are easily found.
tribal wadi
Have any of their claimed attacks actually been confirmed? They claim a lot, but afaik only a spear phishing campaign attributed to them was acknowledged by Israel as well as third parties
minor nest
I need to delete this to stay in compliance with Discord TOS. Please see rule 6
rigid light
https://ifl.flight-maps.com/?map=cvfr
what does this mean
raven dune
they are preparing for a big attack 5000 planes practice same time
US , IL & UK Planes
minor nest
And 5,000 airplanes? Seriously?
"The shifts are likely to result in an overall decrease in the number of US troops in the region, largely because an aircraft carrier contains as many as 5,000 sailors." ?
Only mention of 5000 in the article
raven dune
yeah the rumors said most of them are Air Force Soldiers waiting in israel for the Que date
minor nest
Can you link to the rumors because the article says 5000 people, not 5000 planes
muted bane
Also, this is just a map of Controlled Visual flight rules in Israel Airspace, there is a watermark in the bottom right hand corner of the map.
Also, the homepage of the website linked just shows mainly avation flight maps for pilots.
https://flight-maps.com/index.html
zenith lion
https://x.com/LBCI_NEWS/status/1907869203442409740
Telegraph: citing a senior Iranian official: Tehran is reevaluating its policies toward its proxies in the region and has decided to withdraw its forces from Yemen and stop supporting the Houthis.
X
lilac forum
https://x.com/avischarf/status/1908430882093904218
https://x.com/PierreDavideB/status/1908590961682432362
X
X
#1228798424875270196 message
there's a THAAD missile battery was already moved to Israel after the last clash.
https://x.com/benreuter_IMINT/status/1906687905277321544
X
subtle horizon
ooh nice catch
lilac forum
https://x.com/avischarf/status/1908430882093904218
https://x.com/PierreDavideB/s...
The Flight might be interesting, as it suggests the possibility of relocating the battery elsewhere outside of Israel. However, this seems unlikely due to the recent escalation of threats and the military buildup in the region by US.
also maybe a new THAAD battery being deployed to Israel might indicate that an escalation close and potentially fear of overwhelming Israel's AD.
lilac forum
FxTwitter
NBC reported about moving THAAD to the region without mention of destination.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/jd-vances-role-signal-chat-angers-senior-republican-lawmakers-rcna198697
lilac forum
https://fxtwitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1908933800744337865/en first confirmation from Israeli media
there was military censorship for Israeli's media coverage, according to Israeli military radio correspondent
https://fxtwitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1908577168478577086/en
FxTwitter
dark trout
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1228798424875270196/129541597248...
If anyone is interested in more detail of the AN/TPY-2 system https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/tpy-2/
devout bay
🧵 https://skywriter.blue/pages/iwriteok.bsky.social/post/3lrexkoojok2z
https://fixupx.com/DropSiteNews/status/1932606837574033415
FixupX
rose sedge
X posted from #middle_east-north_africa https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/
rose sedge
deep pumice
Instagram
devout bay
🧵 https://skywriter.blue/pages/iwriteok.bsky.social/post/3lrexkoojok2z
https://...
celest ridge
celest ridge
There's videos circulating claiming to show explosions in Tehran, I haven't seen anyone geolocate yet
https://vxtwitter.com/MohamadAhwaze/status/1933314780946661806
marble locust
..Given the site of these strikes- that's likely military commanders/ something similar... I wouldn't quite expect typical military assets to be so widespread within the capital otherwise.
royal kite
subtle horizon
2024-2025 Iran/Israel Clashes (NO MEMES)
tranquil saddle
..Given the site of these strikes- that's likely military commanders/ something ...
According to Israel, they are targeting military (missile sites) and nuclear sites.
marble locust
According to Israel, they are targeting military (missile sites) and nuclear sit...
There's images of what appears to be apartment buildings hit, and I would argue that commanders/ nuclear scientists could be considered military assets,
IDF Statement
https://x.com/IDF/status/1933324595471454495
Images of apartment complexes hit in Tehran
https://fxtwitter.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1933322827014230467
tranquil saddle
There's images of what appears to be apartment buildings hit, and I would argue ...
Mit my knowledge Israel has stated they are targeting nuclear scientists.
deep pumice
any confirmation on this?
https://x.com/ScharoMaroof/status/1933331785095479484
X
torn loom
One holding tower apparently struck
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1933330421929906591?t=s-zcDptKUdaBIZCNJ4faBA&s=19
X
deep pumice
https://fixupx.com/osinttechnical/status/1933332525126238558?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZF...
thank you
muted cliff
https://fixupx.com/osinttechnical/status/1933332525126238558?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZF...
Yeah it was just confirmed on AJ english about two minutes ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCNeDWCI0vo
hollow imp
i cent remember, has israel bombed iran before?
muted bane
FixupX
radiant pelican
i cent remember, has israel bombed iran before?
Yes.
hollow imp
is there a likligood of nuclear retalliation from iran?
radiant pelican
is there a likligood of nuclear retalliation from iran?
They don't have nukes
deep pumice
do we have a mis-info channel for whats going on right now?
subtle horizon
There's #disinfo-and-propaganda
muted cliff
AJ reports that the head commander of the IRGC has been confirmed assassinated
muted bane
AJ reports that the head commander of the IRGC has been confirmed assassinated
From the AP
celest ridge
Shayan has started a thread with geolocated videos
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1933330421929906591?t=Ky7fkb3eEdxG82WdUkgxHw&s=19
X
minor nest
What is this and who made it? Please post a link of where it's from
(Removed after waiting for update)
astral holly
Shutdown airspaces
Iran's Mehr news agency is saying that Gholam Ali Rashid was killed.
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1933349320012751012
modern finch
astral holly
Ali Shamkhani (he is a political aide to the Supreme Leader) was injured seriously in an attack on his residence - Al Jazeera Arabic live feed
New explosions at the Natanz nuclear site, column of smoke on the feed of Iran's Mehr News Agency on AJ live.
celest ridge
Booster of a Blue Sparrow series missile found in Iraq. Same missile that were also used in previous Israeli strikes on Iran.
https://t.me/Iranian_Militarism/61982
Previous examples:
https://osmp.ngo/model/blue-sparrow/
snow rock
What is this and who made it? Please post a link of where it's from
(Removed af...
(Not the poster, just adding context) Idk the source but the watermarks resemble the Critical Threats Project (they often partner with ISW)
astral holly
Bagheri dead it seems https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1933364046197125462
candid eagle
X
deep pumice
https://x.com/NicholasACarl/status/1933342266095251554?t=w-NuIc4LO9tie2gwWDwXTA&...
can we please be sensible in this channel
minor nest
can we please be sensible in this channel
I believe the poster was reacting because they were correct in their guess of where it came from.
deep pumice
I believe the poster was reacting because they were correct in their guess of wh...
all good
snow rock
I believe the poster was reacting because they were correct in their guess of wh...
Yes that’s correct.
modern finch
Inbound arrivals to Ben Gurion International Airport have been cancelled but departures are continuing
There appears to be a concerted effort by Israeli airlines to evacuate aircraft to Larnaca, possibly in anticipation of retaliation against Israeli infrastructure
candid eagle
X
plush nymph
Can someone confirm with a source drones against Israel.
modern finch
Times of Israel now reporting drone attacks against Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/over-100-drones-launched-by-iran-at-israel-in-last-few-hours-idf-working-to-shoot-them-down/
note that, if this attack is indeed in progress, it will take hours for the drones to reach Israeli territory so the pace will be quite slow to start with
Jordanian airspace is now closed
https://aje.io/auoxkc?update=3771378
deep pumice
X
plush nymph
for this ongoing situtation it would be good to only link accounts that are trustworthy or include their sources for checking
deep pumice
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1933393097410687294
Only clips of these drones are coming from this page, let me know if there are any confirmations or other more reputable sources to follow
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1933407624940212431
X
snow rock
deep pumice
Translation "The Air Force began intercepting drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia." https://x.com/N12News/status/1933410791887159311
modern finch
Translation "The Air Force began intercepting drones over the skies of Saudi Ara...
Associated Press is confirming the same
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-attack#00000197-6802-d663-a5f7-7993fb210000
rigid light
rigid light
plush nymph
i am adding three non paywalled links
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/12/world/israel-iran-us-nuclear?un
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/12/israel-attacks-iran-tehran-explosions/?pw
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-iran/article/attack-latest-news-general-bagheri-nuclear-target-qltfw980m?region=global
X
rose sedge
📰 Jordan’s state news agency reported that it intercepted a number of missiles and drones that entered its airspace after being fired by Iran at Israel.
Meanwhile, Israel’s public broadcaster reported that Israel began intercepting drones over Syria, while the country’s Channel 12 reported that its air force was intercepting UAVs over Saudi Arabia.
modern finch
rose sedge
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has named Major General Mohammad Pakpour as the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tasnim news agency is reporting.
He will replace the former head of the military branch, Hossein Salami, who was killed in this morning’s Israeli attack
Cw images of injuries ||https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/israel-targets-iran-nuclear-sites-and-military-commanders-major-attack||
brittle fulcrum
modern finch
split orchid
https://bsky.app/profile/gbrumfiel.bsky.social/post/3lric45uirc26
Coordinates here are effed up, but the large building destroyed is listed as 'pilot enrichment hall' on Wikimapia:
https://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.724777&lon=51.723011&z=17&m=h&search=51.726%2C 33.725
lapis berry
Context for role of sanctions/timing of attack/ lack of US leverage on sanctions
plush nymph
i think everybody understands that and the announcement last year was clear enough that they understand it
rose sedge
mortal raft
rigid light
https://vxtwitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1933520617980244081 interesting - two Israeli C130Js flying back to Israel from Iraq/Iran
plush nymph
I had an EP for another wave from Iran, looking for EV now
plush nymph
muted bane
Yep just got news alerts about the incoming strikes
muted cliff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iokwjw6WiXg
Tel aviv livestream.
modern finch
modern finch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iokwjw6WiXg
Tel aviv livestream.
from this: Iron Dome firing right now
modern finch
is that a hit?
muted cliff
is that a hit?
Current live hit shows this:
let me know if I should move this to the strike/livestream channel again
snow rock
is that a hit?
upbeat edge
The AP camera was tracking objects in the sky before the smoke appeared. This is the initial column of smoke:
late otter
snow rock
muted cliff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQIxyQvKa2g
Jerusalem livestream as well
upbeat edge
Video of the other strike in the same frame as the first:
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lrj2lk2lw22o
modern finch
Israel Channel 13 reporting hits at Ramat Gan
https://13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/security/day-616-904623293/?pid=7&refc=902992371
modern finch
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1933592786638426123
Reuters reporting the same
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/live-updates-israel-hits-iran-nuclear-facilities-missile-factories-2025-06-13/
stable swallow
is that a hit?
there were two missiles incoming in close formations, one got hit by air defenses the other got through as far as I can see, replaying.
muted cliff
another wave incoming
modern finch
seeing a lot of launches now, no sirens yet
stable swallow
Siren still in effect, no all clear given.
modern finch
sirens are on now, Iron Dome firing in Jerusalem
snow rock
sirens are on now, Iron Dome firing in Jerusalem
sirens on the tel aviv live stream too
modern finch
obtuse raft
X
obtuse raft
https://x.com/ynetalerts/status/1933593582579138940
More pics in the article
modern finch
radiant pelican
https://vxtwitter.com/Acyn/status/1933597826594042346
Do we know what the building is?
stable swallow
from footage from the surroundings. looks residential. lemme make you a screengrab
slate spade
Architecture style is fairly common - I don't recognize the building specifically. Definitely matches the style of residental towers near Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv.
muted cliff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQIxyQvKa2g
is this gunfire in Jerasulem?
stable swallow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQIxyQvKa2g
is this gunfire in Jerasulem?
yup that sounds like small arms fire
snow rock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQIxyQvKa2g
is this gunfire in Jerasulem?
thats what it sounds like to me.
candid eagle
obtuse raft
Do we know what the building is?
Looks like the Da Vinci buildings on Kaplan, but there’s no street view there because it’s near the MoD
https://maps.app.goo.gl/7n1EqkpYcRoyNfHcA?g_st=com.google.maps.preview.copy
slate spade
Looks like the Da Vinci buildings on Kaplan, but there’s no street view there be...
Yup - that's definitely an issue trying to geolocate near the MoD. I haven't seen an angle showing the damage + the true height of the buildings, that would help confirm
stable swallow
looks like that's the building yes
slate spade
It's also pretty new, I think - much of that area was built up in the last 2-3 years, so older data might be missing those towers
balmy cliff
Not sure of the source of this video, it looks like a phone video from nearby the Tel Avi missile strike though.
candid eagle
https://fixupx.com/omar_alharir/status/1933604945695047688/en
what missile is this?
slate spade
Looks like the Da Vinci buildings on Kaplan, but there’s no street view there be...
Lots more photos from an architecture firm or similar:
minor nest
Not sure of the source of this video, it looks like a phone video from nearby th...
Where did you get it from? It's just showing as a discord share
balmy cliff
Where did you get it from? It's just showing as a discord share
Another Discord group I'm in, Defence News related. The buildings appear to match the Tel Avi skyline from what I could tell, but I'm not an expert like some are on here.
plush nymph
That's the Marganit Tower with the blue light
rigid light
Where did you get it from? It's just showing as a discord share
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1933601848990290126 clash report (and MAKS have it posted too)
X
plush nymph
They also never post sources
stable swallow
They also never post sources
and just unconfirmed statements in general
plush nymph
and just unconfirmed statements in general
Money machine Twitter. Mis defender also . Better to look for other accounts that are more reliable.
obtuse raft
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1933601848990290126 clash report (and MAKS have...
The low buildings underneath look like the Sarona compound
slate spade
The low buildings underneath look like the Sarona compound
https://g.co/kgs/s...
Yes, all nearby. Sarona Market has a distinct roof over the street, but that's to the south/southeast of the DaVinci towers
obtuse raft
It’s the old Templar quarter
https://maps.app.goo.gl/2K8mCW21NwAQ5pScA?g_st=com.google.maps.preview.copy
balmy cliff
Hmmmm, I'm suspicious of any X account that posts in all caps all of the time. Personally I'd class this as a low confidence source, but I could be wrong.
Apparently some of the footage is of a Russian submarine rather than Iranian.
I can't see an Iranian sub getting to the Israeli coast without being tracked by the US and Israel.
woven hound
Apparently some of the footage is of a Russian submarine rather than Iranian.
...
this is confirmed as old Kalibr footage
plush nymph
The first victim of a war is the truth. Wait til thus is checked and confirmed.
woven hound
this is confirmed as old Kalibr footage
balmy cliff
this is confirmed as old Kalibr footage
Sounds about right for Iranian TV
snow rock
Sounds about right for Iranian TV
yep. They also claimed to have downed 2 F-35s.
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lrj3z4oguk2b
obtuse raft
X
naive bolt
It’s the old Templar quarter
https://maps.app.goo.gl/2K8mCW21NwAQ5pScA?g_st=co...
https://israelbylocals.com/idf-headquarters/
This page confirms Ministry of Defense quarter seems to be in there
slate spade
https://israelbylocals.com/idf-headquarters/
This page confirms Ministry of Def...
Yes. There's the huge skyscraper tower, and there's also a base just north, across Kaplan
obtuse raft
Looks like the Da Vinci buildings on Kaplan, but there’s no street view there be...
footage showing the garden between the two buildings
X
mortal raft
Not sure of the source of this video, it looks like a phone video from nearby th...
Would this be hypersonic?
balmy cliff
I'd probably lean towards supersonic rather than hypersonic due to atmospheric drag in the terminal phase. This source just says that ICBMs can be in excess of 3200kph.
split orchid
You can call pretty much any medium or long range ballistic missile hypersonic in a literal sense. But it's a meaningless buzzword if the warhead isn't capable of maneuvering and precision, which the Iranian missiles aren't.
This comment is also hypersonic and it just hit you in the eye.
dusky pine
You can call pretty much any medium or long range ballistic missile hypersonic i...
Agree,its more or less ballistic missile = hypersonic so it is more of a cool word to use.
obtuse raft
X
grave tulip
"The Iranian capital is now under new Israeli attacks."
X
mortal raft
I'd probably lean towards supersonic rather than hypersonic due to atmospheric d...
So low probability that its a Fattah-1 missile?
obtuse raft
footage showing the garden between the two buildings
https://x.com/bar_peleg/s...
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X
slate spade
Live map data also showing perimeters around the sites that were hit, as streets have been closed
balmy cliff
So low probability that its a Fattah-1 missile?
No clue unfortunately, it could also be a Shabab 3 or a variant of.
broken galleon
if i may this is 2024
balmy cliff
Bit of an older post (10hrs ago) but it potentially shows that Iran's air defences have been heavily neutralised.
X
brittle fulcrum
So low probability that its a Fattah-1 missile?
for this other video, it does seem like fattah-1 have been also used (this one reportedly intercepted in northern israel)
https://fxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1933612483878793276
https://osmp.ngo/osmp805/
im no expert dont quote me on that tho, but this rocket motor seem to match the osmp pic
naive bolt
Live map data also showing perimeters around the sites that were hit, as streets...
Do you have a link to the map?
slate spade
Do you have a link to the map?
It’s just Google Maps for central Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan — will grab links, thanks for the reminder
plush nymph
New missiles arrive every minute now
slate spade
Do you have a link to the map?
Area around DaVinci Towers: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tel+Aviv-Yafo,+Israel/@32.0727257,34.7781439,3032m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x151d4ca6193b7c1f:0xc1fb72a2c0963f90!8m2!3d32.0852999!4d34.7817676!16zL20vMDdxenY!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDYxMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
rain current
if i may this is 2024
Yes that was 2024?
rose sedge
I have made a thread for disinfo https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1383207852964843540
muted cliff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iokwjw6WiXg
Another volley
deep pumice
https://x.com/dex_eve/status/1933538180591988825
any confirmation on this?
rose sedge
Video of above https://t.me/POPULARXFRONT/2228
deep pumice
https://x.com/dex_eve/status/1933538689071648838
thank you
dawn osprey
live feeds;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNyUyrR0PHo&ab_channel=AlJazeeraArabicقناةالجزيرة
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq6ohxTDNZY&ab_channel=AlHadathالحدث
although note both feeds have aired misleading footage (from previous strike, or different conflict)
however the feeds are dynamic, live and sometimes from multiple angles
muted bane
Regarding the location of the building that was hit in Tel Aviv in the earlier attacks, today. From the AP. (Exact photo citations are avalaible underneath the image in the link)
deep pumice
Is the news on the F-16 being downed with the pilot captured confirmed?
woven hound
no
it’s still very much a report and there’s not been any proof yet, it’s still just unconfirmed. worth noting there was a very similar claim during India/Pakistan that turned out to be untrue, as an example
that looks like AI honestly
dusky pine
that looks like AI honestly
Agree.
deep pumice
that looks like AI honestly
yea thats what I'm thinking. with the rudder angle i thought could've been an f35 but its nowhere near the angle of it. I'll delete it from here for now
candid eagle
muted cliff
yea thats what I'm thinking. with the rudder angle i thought could've been an f3...
This seems to be what Iranian Media is suggesting is the downed aircraft.
https://x.com/Tasnimnews_Fa/status/1933659007987954167
I don't think its real but happy to be corrected
X
marble locust
... There are a bunch of oddities to me with that above image, such as the Star of David (??) on the body, the lack of a damage path, and I cannot tell how "rotated" the surviving debris is. (Is it upright, tilting to the right..?)
muted cliff
To me to looks almost like a model now that I think about it. rather than CGI physical effects
celest ridge
Its fake. The vertical Stabilizer (top fin) is backwards
marble locust
... There are a bunch of oddities to me with that above image, such as the Star ...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Air_Force
Self correction on the insignia, that is actually what the Israeli Air Force uses apparently, didn't know that.
(Would it be there on that jet? 
, defer that to people who know what they're talkin about.)
woven hound
This seems to be what Iranian Media is suggesting is the downed aircraft.
https:...
it looks like AI, it just doesn't match any plane at all. consider that if it was a F-16, it would not have two tails (the plane here has to have two tails, or else the angling of the stabiliser makes zero sense), and the roundel would be hidden underneath the horizontal stabiliser (except, presumably, until now, where the stabiliser just fell away and exposed it)
tranquil saddle
This seems to be what Iranian Media is suggesting is the downed aircraft.
https:...
The insignia looks photoshop, and is in the wrong place, also Israeli jets to my knowledge have a three color camouflage.
To remember the image is likely fake, the claim that Iran shot down a jet or several jets is unconfirmed.
woven hound
willow stream
Image of Mehrabad airport smoke columns, taken from north Tehran 8 hours ago
dusky pine
... There are a bunch of oddities to me with that above image, such as the Star ...
I can tell that this is 100% AI/fake. This is not even close to look like any existing aircraft.
rigid light
This seems to be what Iranian Media is suggesting is the downed aircraft.
https:...
think the AI used a Mirage type aircraft as the "base" of the photo, there were a few Mirage 2000 crashes that are well documented (compare to the one on the left) and the fuselage curves+engine is similar to the 2000
(with Israel having operated Mirage variants in the past - it's very likely that was the source image AI built on)
dusky pine
think the AI used a Mirage type aircraft as the "base" of the photo, there were ...
I can also see a touch of an AJ37 in it.
minor nest
Image of Mehrabad airport smoke columns, taken from north Tehran 8 hours ago
Where online did you get this? Is there a link?
rose sedge
More documentation showing the destruction in Tel Aviv after Iranian attacks https://t.me/POPULARXFRONT/2235?single
balmy cliff
If this does, spill over and drag the US into it, using the USNI Fleet Tracker I posted in Maritime from 09 June 2025, USS Canberra (LCS-30) is in the Persian Gulf. USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), USS Princeton (CG-59), USS Sterett (DDG-104) and USS William P Lawrence (DDG-110) are all currently with U.S. Central Command in the Arabian Sea.
celest ridge
balmy cliff
No sure if true, but there's actually a 747 from Tehran that's literally just taken off on Flight Radar. Destination isn't known.
Edit - after searching the aircraft's registration, it's a cargo 747 rather than a passenger one. Hmmmm.
rigid light
EPFAB https://fr24.com/EPFAB/3acca376
https://www.foxnews.com/world/irans-secret-weapons-smuggling-air-routes-to-lebanon-revealed-by-intel-sources/ what's interest is that EP-FAB/Fars Air Qeshm has been accused of smuggling arms for the Iranian gov
balmy cliff
Interesting
rose sedge
UK: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said in a statement that RAF jets and military assets are being sent from UK bases to the Middle East amid rising tensions in the region. This is in relation to fighting between Israel and Iran.
Reports suggest tax payers were not consulted…https://t.me/POPULARXFRONT/2242
brittle fulcrum
fossil folio
UK: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said in a statement that RAF jets and milita...
This is a little silly. The PM shouldn't be expected to consult taxpayers. I'm not sure of the spin of this "popular front" but if any head of state required a renewed mandate before deploying forces, they'd be hamstrung.
bronze meadow
That's in theory why the US had the idea that the commander in chief is supposed to need congressional authorization for such things.
cinder plaza
Yes we never get consulted on anything except once every four or five years
slate spade
This is a little silly. The PM shouldn't be expected to consult taxpayers. I'm n...
I think it was a bad choice of words. Don’t think they meant directly.
cinder plaza
He probably meant Parliament was not informed
fossil folio
Parliament was.
cinder plaza
Ok, then I dont know what he meant, perhaps he was just mistaken
fossil folio
And no vote is needed, by precedent. Rather confusing...
cinder plaza
Indeed but they do need to be informed
slate spade
Wasn’t the commentary by Popular Front, in Telegram? Not the greatest…
cinder plaza
Anyway its a detail not of any great importance to the conflict
woven hound
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1933982152498295046 anyone got any ideas as to what that might be aimed at?
balmy cliff
Wasn’t the commentary by Popular Front, in Telegram? Not the greatest…
That's my thinking too, the name of the chat/group didn't exactly fill me full of confidence. I wouldn't say I'm the biggest Labour Party supporter, but saying the PM needs taxpayer approval to move UK military assets, especially if they're going to protect other British assets in those places, is utter nonsense.
woven hound
from the NYT daily update thing:
Residents of northern Tehran say smoke and flames are covering the sky. “The fire is terrifying, it’s massive, there is a lot of commotion here,” said Mostafa Shams, who lives in the area. “It’s the gasoline depots that are exploding one after another, it’s loud and scary.”
Two people in Tehran say they can see a massive ball of fire with high flames and smoke coming from a hilly area in the north of the city.
floral jetty
I wonder how quickly the israelis are expending munitions
woven hound
shadow notch
Would be interesting to see the FIRMS satellite data on those fires
muted bane
I wonder how quickly the israelis are expending munitions
Looking at the at recent the videos of the recent attacks on Israel and is it just me or does it appear to be a their a delayed/reduced level of response from the Israel Missile Defense systems.
I know this might be due to Iran using Hypersonic or supersonic missiles here, but I'm also wondering if Iran found a potential exploit of there defense systems, when it comes to preventing a Frendly Fire Incident
brittle fulcrum
Would be interesting to see the FIRMS satellite data on those fires
Tehran, i dont see them right now
shadow notch
Tehran, i dont see them right now
When’s the next satellite pass? Sorry at work right now and can’t check
fossil folio
Based on previous experience w/ ukraine, firms will probably catch the fires, but may "blob" a bit, e.g. not be the most accurate, with all the smoke.
dusky prism
That's my thinking too, the name of the chat/group didn't exactly fill me full o...
Popular front is ran by Jake Hanrahan, experienced conflict journalist who does not hide his left leaning views and is quite thorough in his research as well as, seen here, govt critique.
Overall, he's good folk.
hot python
That's my thinking too, the name of the chat/group didn't exactly fill me full o...
PF do excellent conflict reportage. I'm a patron. Not that I check their Telegram often, the snarky comment was undeed a bit much - not something we want here, for instance - but the main message was the video.
woven hound
Looking at the at recent the videos of the recent attacks on Israel and is it ju...
doubtful, a more plausible explanation right now IMO is that the israelis are concentrating around tel aviv and military targets and so Haifa (in the north, which is normally threatened by Hezbollah who are staying out of this) is underprotected
deep pumice
warning video is loud for headphone users:
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1933994787637526690
X
wispy dawn
What's the situation in the air above Iran? Last I read Israel said they had great freedom to operate as they please. Is that still the case?
fossil folio
What's the situation in the air above Iran? Last I read Israel said they had gre...
Sarcastosaurus, who I defer to here, notes that..
rough bear
warning video is loud for headphone users:
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/19339...
Wow - is that an interception just a few hundred feet off the ground on that second one?
wispy dawn
So it's safe to assume that the Israeli Air Force is on the lookout for ballistic missile launchers and striking them when they can.
fossil folio
Highly recommend: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/quick-and-dirty-the-two-iranian-air?
deep pumice
So it's safe to assume that the Israeli Air Force is on the lookout for ballisti...
i wouldn't think so
wispy dawn
i wouldn't think so
Why not?
muted bane
Tehran, i dont see them right now
With that said, don't need to wait long until the next satellite overpass via advanced mode.
You can switch modes via the nasa Lance page clicking onto the Menu button that looks like this, it gives you more "fun" data including timing of hot spots from satalite
fossil folio
It's reported as part of the first attack, mossad sent drones to deal with surface to surface missiles (tom cooper), I'm yet to see evidence this has continued, but it'd be a reasonable assumption
deep pumice
Why not?
earlier reports of israeli drones (this is on the report of mossad doing some strikes in Iran) hitting stationary targets that hadn't been moved in years or were in use ad-hoc. So I'm assuming there probably are still more air defense capabilities that haven't been hit
wispy dawn
Ah, ok
fossil folio
It's reported as part of the first attack, mossad sent drones to deal with surfa...
Tabriz missile base too.
deep pumice
"Israel Hayom: Mohammed al-Ghamari, Houthi chief of staff, assassinated in an Israeli raid in Sana'a."
https://x.com/Alhadath_Brk/status/1933988447309463800
No confirmations on this from other sources so maybe give it sometime till confirmations come out
woven hound
Wow - is that an interception just a few hundred feet off the ground on that sec...
I think that’s it just coming apart, probably just stresses of reentry or very lucky shrapnel
brittle fulcrum
With that said, don't need to wait long until the next satellite overpass via ad...
Thank you!
muted bane
https://x.com/ILRedAlert/status/1933987816578404796
Saw this posted in the Aljazeera live blog earlier.
woven hound
deep pumice
strike in Haifa causes a blackout https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1934000529027600444
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X
minor nest
It's reported as part of the first attack, mossad sent drones to deal with surfa...
Where is this screenshot from?
wanton raven
Where is this screenshot from?
deep pumice
With the military censorship Israel has going on right now, is there any confirmation of what occured here? https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1934019605711778192?t=QiP3QwTpBK92mtnNAuC7Gw I found 1 other post from another twitter user a picture of a different angle but with a similar description
X
fossil folio
Where is this screenshot from?
Apologies. Tom Cooper - "playing with the lion's tail"
minor nest
Apologies. Tom Cooper - "playing with the lion's tail"
Thanks for letting me know - this information helps people verify the source!
fossil folio
Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/14/israel-and-iran-exchange-missile-strikes-with-explosions-heard-in-tel-aviv-jerusalem-and-tehran-live
Israel’s military says sirens have been activated in northern Israel due to “hostile aircraft infiltration”.
shadow notch
Threat was since intercepted as per BBC