Nord Stream Pipeline

[crystal fiber]

Also noteworthy, there's a popular initiative to end the consulate there and IMO the political pressure is easily enough to overcome the officials' recommendation if it's not super strong

[stone wadi]

Interesting
Ending the consulate sounds like a really obvious thing.
The Russian consulate in Gothenburg (a fairly substantial fenced in building) have been emptied and the city is investigating if they can get ahold of the building, so I can imagine many russian bases like that are being reconsidered

[crystal fiber]

And honestly it's surreal listening to the islander politicians talk about how "following the rules" would keep them safe because "it always has" - what on Earth makes them think Russia cares about the rules at all? They even acknowledge that Russia didn't care about the rules any other time it invaded countries

[stone wadi]

Given that you found a number of Russian owned properties in Finland and especially in Åland with foundations for naval armorment that really delusional

[crystal fiber]

It's so strange seeing otherwise completely reasonable people rely on pure good faith from an actor that has never shown it

[stone wadi]

Had a the administration of a new hospital make a similar idotic statement about the need for bomb shelters and the Geneva convention....

[velvet rain]

Got a source for that?

[stone wadi]

It's from the transcript Miles posted

[velvet rain]

Thanks for clarifying.

[stone wadi]

No problem
Should have left the time stamps in so it was more obvious

[velvet rain]

It's also helpful to explicitly mention it and link the message.

[stone wadi]

Sure
I will update for clarification

[next dirge]

Can we please refrain from political discussions (or any analysis of international relations which bears no relevance to the investigation)

[stone wadi]

It's fairly relevant to Baltic Sea politics and while not relevant to the investigation it is relevant to the fallout from the attacks.
That said it's a slow moving subject so are unlikely to be much more to be said on for a while

[spiral kraken]

https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120238712/seismoloog-heidi-soosalu-gaasijuhtme-juures-toimus-seismiline-sundmus-mida-voib-tolgendada-lohkamise-voi-plahvatusena

[junior moat]

( unfortunately paywalled, but I understand they are now also considering the event a 'blast'/explosion ) .. wondering whether the signature of an explosion would be different from only depressurization

[eager moss]

A couple of observations on the NORSAR information :

there's a discrepancy on the estimated position of the detected seismic event - the first media release positioned it "approximately 20 km north of Paldiski, Estonia" whilst the second (with the same time stamp of 18:30) positioned it "approximately 40 km north of Paldiski, Estonia". Probably just a typo that was quickly corrected.

but the more interesting positioning information is shown in the diagram (below) - approximately near the crossing of the Nordstream pipelines; which pipeline is unclear. It will be good if a more precise location for any leak is provided. it was always likely to have been in the vicinity simply because of the number of crossings and their spacing near the middle of the Gulf and near the shipping channel.

the crossing information I've been able to find indicate that the crossings will have been covered with gravel/rock as would be expected - it's a typical pipeline crossing arrangement.

With regard to pipeline pressures, it appears that after pre-commissioning was completed, the pipeline was gas filled to a pressure of 30 bar prior to being furthe pressurised when brought into operation; which suggests that the pressure of 35 bar was the likely downstream receival pressure during normal operations.

https://news.err.ee/1008639/estonia-finland-natural-gas-link-established-as-balticconnector-filled

[elfin cradle]

But we know that the pressure in the Baltic connector has lost pressure and not the surviving NS line..

[little zinc]

again: this is a on the fly translation + transcript from a pressconference, i wouldnt put too much emphasis into the wording. if somebody says "no Seismological signature detected" it only means they didnt find any signature, they are not ruling out anything.

[stone wadi]

Thanks
Yeah that is absolutely true

[spiral kraken]

says here they're different monitoring methodologies somehow and the blast was weak enough to fall under the detection limits for the est-fin monitoring network or smth

https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120238712/seismoloog-heidi-soosalu-gaasijuhtme-juures-toimus-seismiline-sundmus-mida-voib-tolgendada-lohkamise-voi-plahvatusena

apparently different software

[stone wadi]

Likely
Their is a world of difference in detecting significant seismological events locally and seismological detection for detection of nuclear tests globally

The logs likely contain stuff still

[junior moat]

.... and the parallels continue ... we have another Minerva Julie also in this case .. wait for someone to do a background check and find ties to some Kremlin-Oligarch
https://bsky.app/profile/alanderminna.bsky.social/post/3kbhjddbxxj2r

[junior moat]

Update: Erik "Erkperk" Andersson is thinking to do another expedition with his Swedish captain to check out the new sabotage site 😅

[crystal fiber]

Sounds Norwegian... this proves it was the Norwegians (-S. H. in a week or so)

[eager moss]

there is no suggestion that the Nordstream pipeline was the target. I described how the NS pipelines would have to be crossed, how the 'Baltic Crossing' pipeline would be installed over the top of those lines and then covered with gravel/rock. So that a leak in the BC pipeline may be coincident with the crossing of a NS pipeline - which raises both positive and negative possibilities reagrding the cause of the leak (but that would be just speculation at this time). However, we need to get a more accurate definition of the location of the leak before taking that discussion any further.

[balmy hound]

Big press conference coming again today at 17:00 Finnish time

[spiral kraken]

which outlet is this?

[junior moat]

the font looks like Guardian

[spiral kraken]

it's on hs too

*helsinkin sanomat

[junior moat]

I'm periodically checking this live ticker: https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483

[tidal knoll]

Please can you add a link to where you found this?

[balmy hound]

https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000009915323.html

I translated it for the rest in screenshot 🙂

Convenient story when the ship does donuts around the leak spot due to a storm for 2 days 😅

[junior moat]

such a striking parallel to the Minerva Julie ... is it coincidence

[eager moss]

The weather was quite bad on Friday - Saturday - Sunday. This is just a quick plot of wind speed (knots) - both average and gust, at 10 minute intervals - to illustrate the wind conditions at the weekend. I'll work up a better version if it becomes more interesting. Wave heights at the same time were up to around 2.5 metres (significant wave height).

The wind data is recorded quite close to the pipeline location on the northern side of the Gulf. Wind from the west. https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/open-data

[strange bane]

For what it is worth, this is an easy claim to confirm or deny, but speculation without doing it is somewhat pointless.

@pure finch made this map of the Minerva Julie drifting near NS north sites, and you can see the obvious correlation with the wind direction.

It was motoring one direction (east) for a bit, but then drifted back with the wind/current, and you can see the correlation.

So, you just need to make the same for SGV Flot, if its drifting doesn’t correlate with the weather it’s clearly a lie, but if it does then it’s likewise true.

So as it’s anchored, its movement around the anchor will correlate to the weather.

[eager moss]

I have the wind data if someone wants to do it 🫣

[little zinc]

Defense Minister Häkkänen is expected to comment on the pipeline damage at 8 p.m
Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen will hold a press conference today.
He is expected to take a stand on the damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline.
Häkkänen is currently participating in the NATO defense ministers' meeting in Brussels.
Häkkänen's press conference will start after the meeting at 20:00 Finnish time.
Häkkänen said earlier that at the moment, Estonia and Finland can handle the investigation of the underwater infrastructure on their own.
https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483

another presser

[elfin cradle]

Not sus at all that someone is DDoSi-ng.
https://twitter.com/fingrid_oyj/status/1712132175758344278

Fingrid Oyj (@fingrid_oyj)

Fingridin verkkosivustoon kohdistuu palvelunestohyökkäyksiä ja sivuston käytössä voi esiintyä häiriöitä.

Twitter · Oct 11, 2023, 3:44 PM

To give the Russian ship a benifyt of doubt, it seems to been not the only going back and forth over the pipelines due the storm.
https://yle.fi/a/74-20054774

[crystal fiber]

What I like about this incident is how much lower the stakes are this time, less clout chaser / garbage analysis than with NS

Finland barely uses natural gas outside specialized chemical industries and the pipeline is mostly there to stabilize price spikes

[hidden kraken]

(side tangent, it's like a spot the odd one out, I wonder which one has the most to gain from this)

[elfin cradle]

Translated:
The magnitude of the earthquake at the bottom of the Baltic Sea was measured at the Institute of Seismology to be 0.6. It's quite a bit: for comparison, for example, the weekend's earthquake in Afghanistan had a magnitude of 6.3.

Therefore, the tremor was also below the detection capability of the automatic system, so the systems did not separately report the exceptional event.

• When we received information on Sunday that there might be something wrong with the gas pipe, we started to investigate these registrations in more detail, says Kortström.

Then the Norwegians noticed it, because the seismic measuring stations in the Nordic countries have a connection to each other's data.

It was only after the Norwegian seismology research institute Norsari came out that Kumpula in Helsinki was also sure that the measurement results were related to underwater events.

• A small loss of image when the Norwegians got there first. In hindsight, he could have figured it out himself first, says Kortström.

Earlier on Wednesday , Kortström estimated that since the result of the measuring stations is so small, it probably wouldn't be an explosion, although the possibility cannot be ruled out.

Norsar also made the same conclusions after analyzing the seismological observation.

On Wednesday afternoon , the Central Criminal Police estimated that the pipe damage was not caused by an explosion, but by mechanical force. KRP is investigating the matter as gross vandalism."
https://yle.fi/a/74-20054800

[crystal fiber]

Would be wonderfully Finnish if they indicted Russia for gross vandalism

(gross = aggravated, from Finnish to English legalese. "gross" or "outrageous" would be a valid literal translation outside legal context, though)

[velvet rain]

I also made this ugly map draft a long time ago here that visualises the likely drift phases.

To add to the discussion above about the drift phases.

[stone wadi]

https://www.svd.se/a/l324le/saboterad-gasledning-i-finland-expert-misstanker-ryssland
(google translate, it would be a "A" before "way" and some other oddities)

[inner sandal]

Are you sure it was anchored?

[strange bane]

It says it was:

According to Kasatkin, SVG Flot anchored in a sheltered spot to wait for the bad weather to clear.

And the movement of the ship seems to correlate with the ship walking around its anchor.

I haven’t seen a playback of it, but you’ll probably also be able to see the ship driving up against the current onto where it dropped its anchor, drifting backwards with the current to stretch out its chain, and then beginning to swing with the movement of the current or wind.

[stone wadi]

float anchored?
somethign like this?

[soft flax]

omg so that's what the english legalese equivalent of "grov" is, i have had the biggest brain fart over the last week trying to think of that word

[crystal fiber]

||Pretty sure that's one of the Sesame Street characters||

[strange bane]

I dunno how deep it is there. But the Gulf of Finland is average 40m depth.

You need about 3, 4x the depth in anchor chain to have a relatively decent hold.

A shackle of anchor chain is 27.5m

I’ve never been on a merchant ship with less than 6 shackles per chain, and oil tanker is going to have 8, 10 easily, so it’s got more than enough anchor chain to anchor in 40m or so.

https://lk.rs-class.org/regbook/vessel?fleet_id=810442&ln=en

This unfortunately doesn’t tell us the length of anchor chain it has, just that its diameter is 46 mill.

[eager moss]

The water depth in the area where the vessel Sav Flot was anchored is ~40 metres; this is just to the north of the Nordstream pipelines and a deeper water channel that is 60 - 80 metres deep. {The second image is from https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000009915323.htm }

[strange bane]

Yep, so more than possible yea.

[eager moss]

Certainly anchoring shouldn't be a problem; it's worth noting that the anchored position is some distance to the east of the damaged pipeline.

[strange bane]

It's test DSC messages (and the acknowledgement calls back) on Monday 9th and last Thursday 5th were pretty widely (incidentally) received by DSC radio nerds.

https://gis.vta.ee/navhoiatused/en.html

https://extranet.vayla.fi/pooki_www/merivaroitukset/list_en.html

Neither Estonia or Finland have issued a nav warning.

[eager moss]

The pipeline was shut in at both ends when the depressurisation was detected. It's a 20" line with an operating pressure of 80 bar and the pressure drop recorded at the Estonian end was from 35bar - hence the volume of gas released was small in comparison with Nordstream.

I can understand to some degree why a vessel 'loitering' in the vicinity around the time the damage was detected might attract attention, BUT it isn't necessarily the case that the damage was caused immediately prior to the depressurisation. It can be seen on the flowrate chart (I posted a couple of days ago) that the flowrate (and pressure) was reduced to 50-60% prior to the leak and the depressurisation started as the pressure was being increased back towards normal. This chart shows the gas flowrate through the pipeline during October. It may be that the damage was caused several days (or maybe weeks) before the damage became a leak. Not my specific area of expertise but I have previously seen that damage can be quite extensive (eg dent/buckle) without perforation of the steel wall and that the damage subsequently increases over time, especially when the pressure is increased. Which is what we can see on this chart.

[eager moss]

This is a thread reporting on the media briefings yesterday afternoon in Finland/Estonia with some interesting comments https://fx.com/quantum_CNI/status/1712083952867934581?s=20

'external traces' on the seabed may refer to anchor dragging scars ? 'mechanical force' is impact from anchor ?

and of note is ' explosion unlikely'

Does anyone have any transcript from the briefings ?

[eager moss]

a couple of link to some new information that may be of interest https://news.err.ee/1609128452/estonian-navy-commander-seems-balticconnector-pipeline-ruptured-from-one-side

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/seabed-warfare-another-sabotage-in-the-baltic/

so it looks like the pipeline has been dragged sideways, the concrete (45mm thick) has been broken off, and there's a hole in the steel pipe

no news on the cable damage as they are still trying to find it

Pipeline damage looks like it was caused by a large ship's anchor 😁

some side scan sonar images would be good

[junior moat]

wow, but this really means (I think) it must become very obvious soon which ship was the perpetrator .. because such a large ship at the right time in the right position will be impossible to hide from radar/satellites

[eager moss]

I wrote earlier today about when the damage may have been caused; not necessarily immediately prior to the leak being noticed.

so a search over a longer time frame might be appropriate

PS I found some engineering documents but they are not the last ones produced so some information will have changed

[junior moat]

nice, yeah I have some work to do today, but at the weekend I'll think about re-activating a trial period for MT, I don't think this part of the Baltic is covered by the Danish AIS data is it ?

[elfin cradle]

No its too far away sadly. Im looking into getting Finnish or Estonian AIS data from another source than VT/MT. Found a Finnish API but it seems only to show current data, not historical. https://www.digitraffic.fi/en/marine-traffic/

[inner sandal]

Beginning to look as if one of the sheltering vessels accidentally anchored itself to the pipeline

[eager moss]

I think one of the questions at the moment is which vessel this could be; there are apparently not many which have been identified during the last Friday - Saturday - early Sunday to have been near the location. There does seem to have been a focus on one particular vessel which was anchored to the east of the pipeline but the winds during last weekend were from the north - west - south and not from the east. One other question that remains unanswered is which side of the pipeline has been damaged, the report says that only one side is damaged and that the pipeline has been pulled laterally away from it's installed position.

As always, it would be good if more information was made available.

The damage to the cable remains a mystery and it would be quite a coincidence for there to have been two separate incidents at around the same time.

[little zinc]

https://fxtwitter.com/GaryGnutter/status/1712226205737373965
https://fxtwitter.com/GaryGnutter/status/1712236750226047149
https://fxtwitter.com/GaryGnutter/status/1712367720614768893

[eager moss]

The path of the 'Newnew Polar Bear' is some 10 kilometres south of the reported location of the pipeline leak and on the other side of the Nordstream pipelines; it may be relevant to the cable damage ? At that time in the early hours of Sunday morning, the 15-20 knot winds (30 knot gusts) were from the North West to North North West. I'm not clear why a large container vessel would be dragging it's anchor whilst steaming at over 10 knots, especially in an area it travels often and where the numerous cables and pipelines are shown on the charts.

I spoke to the owner of the engineering company that performed the detailed engineering for the pipeline and provided construction support (he used to work with us). The Finish and Estonian Navy "sequestered" the project documentation and they are not publicly available. The available information is from an earlier phase and much of the detail was revised during detailed engineering. It explains the discrepancies in some of the available information that can be found during searches and on social media.

On the possibility of interaction between the NnPB vessel and the pipeline :

Based on the research conducted over decades, including more recently, and on known real-world experience, a vessel travelling at that speed (> 10 knots) dragging an anchor it's most likely that the anchor will 'pull-over' the pipeline. The scenario involves the anchor hooking the pipeline, maybe dragging it some short distance, and then be pulled over the pipeline as it breaks free. The speed changes identified seem to support this scenario.

Research and experience shows that vessels travelling at lower speeds are more likely to hook and drag a pipeline, whilst at high speed the impact can cause mechanical damage before the anchor is pulled over the pipeline.

[eager moss]

So the question that arises IF the NnPB vessel is the other side of the Nordstream pipelines as the reported leak location : Is there any evidence acquired during the recent survey that demonstrates seabed scarring from a dragged anchor and evidence of impact on the pipeline along the path of the vessel?

[little zinc]

where is the information on the pipeline leak location coming from? didnt follow too closely

[eager moss]

This article addresses the leak location but there is also the information from Norsar that you posted a couple of days ago : https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000009915323.html

[eager moss]

It's also shown in the thread you posted earlier.

[little zinc]

yeah, i didnt know what their "approximately" could mean, +-100m or +-10km and thought there were some other reports. Norsar are giving the coordinates with one position after decimal point, that could be a hint.

[eager moss]

Agreed; the location is gaining currency but hasn't been specified by the Finnish Navy to any degree of precision; but for now it's the best and only indication we have. It's not a reason to discount the possibility that the NnPB is the culprit and the possibility that it may be the cause of the damage but i would have hoped that if the Nosar location was so far out then the Fin Navy would have said something about the information Nosar made public.

[little zinc]

@eager moss: the coordinates from norsar (59.7, 24.1) have a length of 11km if i didnt make an error here.

[eager moss]

Yes, I did a similar calculation.

It's not a reason to discount the NnPB.

but i would hope that being one side or the other of the Nordstream pipelines would be a characteristic of the leak location that could be mentioned, especially if it is incorrectly shown.

[little zinc]

also with some GIS software or is there another (easy) way?

[eager moss]

I just calculated the distance between locations using geodetic positioning (at the Gulf of Finland latitude) and for a difference of ±0.05 degrees - separately for both lat and long positions. The distance is so small both Geodetic and Geocentric are fine but I used a spreadsheet I wrote some years ago. The key question is not the ± kilometres but the difference the margin of error makes in seabed locations. Which we can see is significant.

[little zinc]

thanks, makes sense.

[crystal fiber]

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483/64-3-184641

Putin (awkwardly long drumroll...) denies having anything to do with this. He also denies knowing what a "Balticconnector" is.

[eager moss]

I noted a few days ago the discrepancy in the Norsar information regarding the location of the detected seismic signal #1072947857654554624 message

there is also a very large margin of error shown on the more recent Norsar published data

although since the first revision to "approximately 40 kilometres north" they all point towards a central location that is north of the Nordstream pipelines (the Norsar information has a focus on Nordstream)

[little zinc]

even bigger margin than the coordinates itself, are other parties expected to release a more accurate location?

[eager moss]

I would hope that at some stage - soon - the JEF set up by Finland and Estonia will provide some clarity. A journalist could ask the simple question at a media briefing of whether the leak is north, south or within the 'spread' of the Nordstream pipelines.

the survey conducted on Monday will have found the location quite accurately, of course.

As I recall, the position of the Nordstream leaks were known soon after they occurred because a notice had to be issued regarding the risk to shipping. That wasn't necessary in this case.

[eager moss]

Just seen this - so now we know to a reasonable degree of accuracy where the damaged section is to be found

A good graphic in this tweet https://twitter.com/i/status/1713135668384170024

Markus Jonsson mastodon.world/@auonsson (@auonsson)

Since yesterday there is an electronic exclusion zone blocking the normal eastbound Gulf of Finland shipping lane.

The position of the box is right above the intersection of NordStream 1+2 and Balticconnector.

▶ Play video

Twitter · Oct 14, 2023, 10:12 AM

[pure finch]

Here's a quick and ugly view of how that warning box lines up with where Turva was and where SGV-Flot lurked.

[exotic shale]

can I ask a question to shipping experts here? Is it at all possible, in practice, to drop the anchor while cruising at 11 knots? Is it possible to do by mistake? What does it involve? Just pressing a button? If NewNew Polar Bear did this, I suppose the chain left some marks on the side. Could they have winded the anchor back in while still going at 11 knots? I'm just trying to establish if this was at all feasible.

[strange bane]

No, you’ll rip the anchor and the windlass off the ship.

Anchors have to be gradually dropped and “caught” if that makes sense, before the anchor gains too much momentum, especially in a vessel of any substantial size.

[strange bane]

Each shackle is marked by a red shackle with the number of the shackle denoted by the number of red shackles on each side, the 2nd shackle is red in the middle with two white shackles on each side, and so on.

But yea, at any speed, dropping it all the way will rip the anchor and its chain, and the windlass out of the ship, and even if dropping doesn't rip it out of the ship, when the ship continues moving and the anchor runs out of slack and comes under the entire strain of the ship moving forward, it will be ripped out then.

[stone wadi]

IIRC you also usially have mechanical lockouts that prevent the anchor from being dropped unintentionally

[exotic shale]

thanks, but NewNew Polar Bear seems to be a relatively modern ship (built 2005) and I can think of ways design the windlass with automatic brakes. I also read there is a "clutch" on windlasses and the chain has some elasticity so I'm not convinced momentum wouldn't be transferred from the ship to the pipeline over a few seconds and forces stayed within breaking limits of the chain. It makes sense to design it like that. What if you are caught in a fast tidal current and must throw the anchor in an emergency? Why not design the system to handle such situations?

[exotic shale]

But can you do it intentionally? My question in if it is at all possible to do this.

[stone wadi]

I am sure that you "could" drop the while sailing if you really really wanted
I just suspect that it don't exist any sane reason to do so though

[strange bane]

Yea

There’s a “gullotine”

And a “devil’s claw”

[exotic shale]

Maybe there was and insane reason

[strange bane]

And you can also just put a bar through the chain

And a cable stopper

[exotic shale]

The question is if NewNew Polar Bear can be written off as a suspect, although it was at the right place at the right time

[strange bane]

I mean, there’s no reason to necessarily use your anchor to cut a cable or pipeline

You could just tow a device, if we wanted to allege that

Just dragging your anchor along the sea floor is just asking for it to get snagged, not to mind the monstrous weight loads involved.

[exotic shale]

I think it'

it's worth noting that on the exact second of the NORSAR seismic signal, 22:21:18, Polar Bear had lost 1.6knots of speed and meaning. that the pipeline had been dragged 50 meters in 10 seconds at that speed and the decelleration of the ship wouldn't have been noticable. It's a very good match here. At least in time. I bet the location is also a perfect match, since the last AIS message from Turva had her stationary there, about 50 meters east of the pipeline.

[little zinc]

there was some discussion about this: #1072947857654554624 message

[pure finch]

Another quick'n'ugly view of Polar Bears AIS pings in the area

[limber hinge]

Perhaps Google "ship anchor fail" to get some sense of the matter.

I thinkbit will be surprising to some.

[pure finch]

https://vxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1714267667480096847

[junior moat]

yeah... gettin' funky in the Baltic

[pure finch]

Swedish CG vessel Triton and Finnish research vessel Aranda had been lurking in a similar location south of Mariehamn in recent days, but could have been a routine exercise for all we know at this point.

Roughly the area of the BCS North cable. But to emphasize again, this could be entirely unrelated to what the press conference is about.

[crystal fiber]

https://www.fiberatlantic.com/system/mZyoO

At least this website doesn't have any information about the cable being offline

https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market-information/cross-border-transmission/graphs/central-sweden/

Electricity transmission cable is also doing fine

[pure finch]

https://vxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1714283500336263315

[pure finch]

Yup, it doesn't look like BCS North given the link to Estonia - so perhaps Sweden-Estonia (EE-S 1) or Baltic Sea Submarine Cable.

https://vxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1714284338127507966

[crystal fiber]

https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/Power-system-data/Exchange1/SE/Hourly2/?view=table
Power cables all seem to be operating at normal/full capacity

though note that this is with a considerable delay, newest data is 2 hours old

https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/Regulating-Power1/Regulating-Volumes1/NORDIC/Hourly1/?view=table

Regulating power also normal. We would expect this to spike if electric infrastructure was damaged (more so in Baltics than Sweden due to their weaker grid)

[spiral kraken]

Estonian ministry says there have been similar minor disruptions with this cable in the past.

[crystal fiber]

https://www.postimees.ee/7877437/gaasitoru-saaga-hiina-laev-oli-vaidetaval-vigastuse-tekkimise-ajal-tapselt-gaasitoru-kohal

Postimees reports that the closest ship to the disruption was Chinese, and that the ministries are using vague language and withholding their suspicions because of the diplomatic sensitivity

[stone wadi]

As expected

[little zinc]

you expected a chinese ship could have something to do with this?

[stone wadi]

No
The vague language etc for diplomatic sensitivity

[pure finch]

The Norwegian coast guard vessel KV Svalbard, has popped out to accompany a vessel that has been the subject of some interest lately...

[junior moat]

oh wow ...

[pure finch]

yeah, interesting it's been running parallel to it for ~4 hours so far.

[junior moat]

good catch .... they're definitely trying to send some message I guess

[pure finch]

"Do you like my 57mm Bofors? "

[little zinc]

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2023/10/russian-chinese-ships-spotlighted-finnish-police-after-after-gas-pipeline-damage

[pure finch]

https://vxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1715069327303401509

[exotic shale]

https://poliisi.fi/en/-/the-investigation-is-now-focused-on-the-role-of-the-vessel-newnew-polar-bear

[topaz mortar]

What's your considered conclusion about NNPB and Sevmorput then? Sabotage or Accident? https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2023/10/russian-chinese-ships-spotlighted-finnish-police-after-after-gas-pipeline-damage

I liked the analogy here:

EER: So it looks like the pipe is ruptured on both sides?

Cdre Jüri Saska: No, it still looks like it was rent from the one side, a bit like a hosepipe getting stuck behind your leg, then you’ve dragged it behind you. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/seabed-warfare-another-sabotage-in-the-baltic/

[exotic shale]

I'm waiting for the recovery of the mystical heavy object which has dug itself down in the mud according to the Finnish police.

[velvet rain]

Let's not speculate.

[topaz mortar]

I am going for accident

[velvet rain]

I do believe there's a message about speculation somewhere in this thread.

[eager moss]

I wouldn't be so sceptical about the 'mystical heavy object'. Both the Baltic Sea and the Finland Gulf are littered with debris large and small; as I have previously identified, the Nordstream 1 project showed that this was the case. This is the identification of objects within a very narrow corridor along the NS1 pipelines routes; objects buried below the seabed, in clay, are not necessarily shown.

[little zinc]

https://www.ft.com/content/22233300-325e-4bb7-932e-cf543fbe987b

[exotic shale]

The ship engineers I'm talking to are now telling me that with 50 ton anchor and chain, you could, maybe, drive the ship at 11 knots with full power., but you don't do that unknowingly. I'm inclined to believe that something else than the anchor got attached to the ship. Can't wait to see what the buried object is. A hybrid?

what's going on with NNPB? MT now projects it will not take the polar route but turn around and go to China through the Suez canal.

[pure finch]

At a guess, I'd say the predicted path has changed since the vessel appears to be sailing into Arkhangelsk.

[exotic shale]

maybe it's tired of sailing in high winds. Waves are up to 9 meters where it was heading before, but it will calm down in the coming days.

[pure finch]

Yup there's lots of vessels sheltering from the conditions, so it's possible.

[eager moss]

I suggested in another forum shortly after the incident (about 2 weeks ago) that IF the action was deliberate then the best way was to have a device similar to a plough rather than a ships anchor to hook onto the pipeline. But at the time most people who don't know much about subsea pipelines were determined that the damage couldn't possibly be caused by a dragged anchor hooking on the pipeline for some reason, including because pipelines are "too robust". Several types and sizes of ploughs are commonly used to trench both pipelines and cables when trenching is deemed to be required; a simpler and lighter device could easily be designed and fabricated to hook and drag the pipeline that would work much more effectively than an anchor because the towing forces would be much lower. Whilst I'm happy that the idea of a plough type device has been adopted by others in recent days as a possibility, it is of course contingent upon the incident having been deliberate and not accidental; it is just speculation until such time as more information becomes available.

When we learn what this large heavy object is beneath the clay at the location, and if we find it's some custom device and not an anchor or large seabed debris/wreck, we will need to start understanding how the vessel could be arranged to lift and handle the 'large heavy' device and rigged for the towing chain and wire, and what evidence might exist to support the conjecture.

[stone wadi]

https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10043896

[exotic shale]

should be easy now that the ship is docked in Arkhangelsk

[eager moss]

Another article, providing some examples of cut cables in the past. Useful additional information is that the E-FinEst cable was completely cut. https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000009937204.html

It seems to be making the case that ships or trawlers cut cables quite often, but that pipelines is a less frequent case (which is true). But it quotes a marine captain as an 'expert' commenting on anchors damaging pipelines as being unlikely 🤦‍♂️

He obvioulsy hasn't read the PARLOC report (Pipelines and Risers Loss of Containment) where 26% of the incidents in the North Sea were the result of anchors impacting pipelines. Parloc reports on real world incidents as reported by oil/gas companies that operate the pipelines in the North Sea.

It should be easy to determine if it was an anchor that damaged the Connector pipeline; whilst the information provided so far points to it as being the most likely explanation, there should be anchor dragging scars left in a clay seabed. Releasing the multi-beam side scan sonar images would be very informative.

[eager moss]

Meanwhile . . . . the cable lay/repair ship 'Telepaatti' has been on site for over 15 hours, reasonable stationary over the location. It was at site a few days ago gathering detailed information so that the repair plan could be finalised. It looks like it's now back on site effecting the repair.

The Telepaatti is a DP0/1 vessel with a 4-point mooring as backup. DP0/1 means that there is no redundancy against a single failure mode on the dynamic positioning system.

[exotic shale]

Telepaatti is now 600 meters North of the point where NNPB passed, adn it has also been about 600 meters south of that point. I wonder if they replace a 1. 2 km section of the cable?

[eager moss]

The Marine Traffic site is showing it at much the same location as in the chart I just posted, timestamp of 11:37 UTC.

I'm referencing where it's performing the work, not where the NnPB intersected. They're not necessarily related.

There has been a lot of trawler fishing activity in the area just in the last few days. Same as the other site to the south west off Hiumaa

just for example

This was a trawler fishing some days ago at the other cable damage site west of Hiumaa - I didn't screenshot the entire days fishing, just this start of the escapade, but it crossed both cables several times.

It's also been back more recently iirc

[crystal fiber]

Really appreciate the name of that ship (it's a pun, means both "teleboat" and "telepath")

[eager moss]

The inspection the Telepaatti performed last week was over a distance of about 1 - 1.2 kilometres; it is equipped with some good equipment for testing the cable which is what it was doing over that length to determine whether it needed repairing just at the cut or for some distance either side (as we now know since it's been confirmed that the cable was cut). Screenshot is from near midnight UTC on 18th/19th.

[eager moss]

This shows the location of the 'special buoy' that was positioned by the Telepaatti when it finished the inspection work on 19th; inserts show the location of the Telepaatti performing the repair work 10 minutes ago relative to the buoy location (top right insert) and the changes in it's position prior to 10 minutes ago (bottom right insert). 10 minutes ago = 13:20 UTS

[spiral kraken]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/estonia-asks-china-cooperation-over-severed-baltic-sea-telecom-cables-2023-10-23/

[eager moss]

There was a second 'special buoy' installed about 870 metres south of the one shown on Marine Traffic - but which isn't shown on MT. This would be consistent with the section of cable inspection performed last week. So the length of cable replaced will then point to the proximity of the repaired cable to the NnPB track.

[junior moat]

https://vxtwitter.com/noaasm_/status/1716797244140147094

[pure finch]

The lump was cleaned and raised today. According to Lohe, it is an anchor.
https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000009944257.html

[pure vine]

https://vxtwitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1716820263701241934?s=20

very anchorlike

[strange bane]

That's an AC14 anchor.

Which the New New Polar Bear has.

Or well seems to have, sorry.

[crystal fiber]

This seems about as conclusive as it possibly could be

[junior moat]

yep 😄 .. there is an anchor on the seafloor, and an anchor missing from the Polar Bear .. coincidence ?🤔

[crystal fiber]

According to Finnish authorities, Polar Bear's captain has not taken their calls or otherwise responded to contact attempts

Also according to Finnish authorities: the anchor is missing one of its hooks/shanks/flukes/arms (I'm not sure exactly what the term means, I'm not a sailor, but they called it "piikki")

[strange bane]

Yea

[crystal fiber]

You can maybe see it in the picture

[strange bane]

It’s missing one of its flukes

This is the fluke.

And in the picture you can see it cracked off.

I’m curious though

It seems like they just have anchor chain hanging down the hawsepipe in the pic of the ship.

If they got it hooked on something

There’s a simple way of disconnecting from it if you need to.

The bitter end.

To remove it where it seems to be removed

You’ve to hang over the side at sea and acyetelene torch the anchor chain?

Or use the big sledgehammer and get your strongest crew member to whack the bitter end pin out?

https://tenor.com/view/o-brother-that-dont-make-no-sense-gif-11859502

Which one would you do?

[eager moss]

Is it clear whether the fluke was broken at or before the pipeline ?

it's clear from the photo of the damaged pipeline that the impact was at a field joint - so just a polyurethane fill over the steel pipe, no concrete. Not that it would have made much difference

[little zinc]

on the fly translated transcribtion of the presser, same source.

[elfin cradle]

https://twitter.com/1st_sealord/status/1716529070836510818

Images from Arhangelsk, that may be showing missing anchor.

Better images from the press conferance:
https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10044105

[stone wadi]

did it breake at the balancing band?
thier will be intresting analyses of the breake surface if its not too coroded

[strange bane]

Yea, it seems like the shank and one of the flukes got snapped.

[stone wadi]

so ether a really badly made anchor
or it really got stuck in something

Still wouldn't it be conceivable to cut the anchor chain if the anchor is stuck in fairly shallow water, that way you don't need to replace the whole chain (though I have no clue about the price calculation on that maybe the chain is comparbly so cheep that you would never by an anchor without a full chain?)

I assume that it would be possible to cutt it between the stopper and the lifter?

(wouldent be the safest thing you could do but still safer than cutting it dangling from a roap)

[strange bane]

It’s impossible to get the load off the chain there.

[stone wadi]

would you have to do that to cutt it?

[strange bane]

The devils claw/alternative means of anchor lashing doesn’t really take the weight of the chain off, it just stops the chain from gaining any momentum if the brake comes off a little bit.

The only way to safely get it off is sledgehammering the bitter end pin out.

Maybe, when the anchor snapped off they hauled the cable all the way up to check.

[stone wadi]

yeah in this case it seem rather clear that the anchor snapped
I was thinking more of a slightly more safe way that cutting it without "hanging over the side at sea", sure not in any imagination safe

[crystal fiber]

Sounds like the sensible thing to do tbh

you wouldn't want a chain just flopping around under you

[eager moss]

The anchor shank has clearly sheared, possibly where there may have been a balancing band which will have provided a weaker point on the shank; the shearing is not necessarily the consequence of being poorly made. The fluke has also sheared, although it's still not clear whether that occurred at the pipeline impact or sometime before; the scarring of the seabed might indicate and the fluke should be at the damage site ? Seabed scarring is described as 'wider' immediately west of the pipeline and the photo shows the narrower scar east of the pipeline - but that in itself isn't conclusive.

[eager moss]

The conditions at the time were stormy : winds of 20-30 knots mean and gusts of 40-60 knots with a 2.5 - 3 metre significant wave height. The deceleration caused by the snagging has been estimated to have been gradual and not to have caused a jolt which is realistic because the pipeline-chain-vessel 'system' is not a rigid structure but an elastic and dynamic system; all of the three primary components are free to move (the pipeline can move and the anchor chain tension and catenary will change) and the loads/forces imposed will change with time and as the three components move/change. So thinking of how the crew may have noticed the change in speed and how they may have reacted needs to take both the weather and how the impact would cause change in the vessel motion into account.

If the NnPB continued on to damage the E-FinEst cable to the east, the chain and remaining anchor shank being dragged along the seabed would be sufficient to cut the fibre-optic cable. The 20mm diameter cable is described as 'single armored light' - it has only one layer of steel wire wrap (2.2mm dia). The scarring on the seabed indicates that this is what is likely to have occurred.

[elfin cradle]

It sounds like they put the anchor down right before the pipeline and then let it drag for a couple of kilometers after until thell pulled the chain up.

[eager moss]

The proposition that the anchor was lowered right before the pipeline doesn't appear to be supported by the statements made at yesterday's briefing ? It sounds like the marks / scars on the seabed have been traced for some considerable distance to the west but not so far west to where they start ? This extract is from the transcript posted yesterday, which is where my impressions are from -

[exotic shale]

The visible rupture surface to the left in the pic looks rusty -like if it happened a long time a go. Not sure about the other surface.

[eager moss]

My thoughts also - in the briefing yesterday it was said that it's "in the laboratory" so we may hear more about this 🙂

[strange bane]

From my own experience, exposed steel rusts very quickly at sea, so who knows.

[limber hinge]

Link to Mgfs page on the AC14 anchor.
https://www.ysmarines.com/marine-anchor/ac-14-high-holding-powerhhp-anchor/

Note no balancing band.

If we could get some dimensions you could determine which SIZE AC14 it is. Then you would have the nominal load required to break the beast, assuming no factory flaws.

Edit: Even then we would need to know at least the alloy used, which does not seem to be widely published. AndbI can find no performances specs after a short internet search.

Knowing weight/size you could speculate as to its suitability for use, but to what end?

That it broke in TWO places is curious. Logic would seem to dictate that both flukes were hooked, first one fluke broke and all weight was on the second fluke, until the shank broke.

One Could speculate about uneven forces and bending but I don't know it would prove anything towards intent.

[strange bane]

Since the class societies websites haven't been posted yet.

http://ssmis.ccs.org.cn/ssmis_equ.jsp?imono=9313204

https://classdirect.lr.org/assets/LRV44955/

It also had 4 deficiencies in August when it was PSCed in Shanghai.

and 3 deficiencies in March when it was PSCed in Portugal.

it had 8 in 2021 when the Spanish PSC came on in Bilbao.

and going down through the years, seems like it was geting deficiencies regularly.

[eager moss]

The fluke that's missing is a sizeable mass of metal; if it's near the pipeline having been broken off in the impact it should be possible to locate.

[stone wadi]

From https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10044105
the highlighted word translates to "polished"
the whole thing means that the anchor was cleaned up after they recovered it
so i would not put too much importance on one part being more rosted than others, they whare likely told to levea any breake areas alone for the time being

[eager moss]

The salinity in the Finland Gulf, as in the Baltic Sea, is a lot lower than what one expects for sea water due to the large ingress of river water and the low exchange between the North Sea-Baltic-Finland Gulf. At the bottom in the Gulf, it's 10 ppt or less; 'normal' sea water would be about 35 ppt. {just a reminder of what was discussed some months ago . . . .}

[stone wadi]

anyone noticed this on the "ship missing anchor image"?

[stone wadi]

yeah, it is always worth pointing out that the whole Baltic sea is a Brackish sea as most peaple in the world won't have encontered the distrincion between regular sea water and low salinity sea water

the low salinity do result in things like sonar don't behave like expected in regular seas OR in lakes

[agile flower]

https://vxtwitter.com/shashj/status/1717249095893496233?s=46&t=SRRtkThpiVIz1bnE7qFnyw

[elfin cradle]

Didnt Minerva Julie also change its crew when it arrived in St. Peterburg?

[strange bane]

I believe it was in Tallinn. Crew changes are common place. I don’t think it was ever said that it was the whole crew in the case of the Minerva Julie.

I’ve done the Northern Sea Route, because of the rigours of it, it’s usually done on a shift 1 month on/1 month off (or similar rotation), so an entire crew changing isn’t that suspicious in terms of an Arctic passage.

Obviously that’s anecdotal, but shift rotations are the norm for the NSR.

[elfin cradle]

Wonder if any journalist dug into that. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

After watching this I kinda understand how destructive a anchor failure is.
Top 5 Anchor Drop Failures:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMytHt1D1go

[strange bane]

https://vxtwitter.com/schwartzesque/status/1634254725896863749

[elfin cradle]

Thank you! ❤️

[eager moss]

The photo was apparently of the vessel approaching Archangelsk on it's way back to China after the incidents in the Gulf of Finland. Several vessels were sheltering in the White Sea at that time, although the NnPB docked at Archangelsk, possibly to do something about the containers ?? I don't know if Archangelsk has the facilities to handle containers ??

[crystal fiber]

Arkhangelsk does seem to have a few small container ports

[stone wadi]

Yeah, still a impressively bad Jenga tower

[strange bane]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-baltic-pipe-cable-incidents-are-related-estonia-says-2023-10-27/

[eager moss]

It doesn't look good, that's for sure. Containers are lost at sea every year, not just displaced - there's a lot of information available online. https://www.worldshipping.org/containers-lost-at-sea

[elfin cradle]

Finnish police confirmed that the anchor came from Newnew Polar Bear but they have not speculated officially yet why it happned.

[little zinc]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/estonia-says-chinese-ship-is-main-focus-probe-into-cables-damage-2023-11-10/

[tidal knoll]

Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack

Roman Chervinsky, a colonel in Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, was integral to the brazen sabotage operation, say people familiar with planning

This guy gets around. Or did until his arrest...

"according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation"

The story that it was all under auspices of Zaluzhny and unbeknownst to Zelensky is reiterated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/
(Or alternatively <https://archive.ph/SUNj5.)

[severe void]

I feel like the this investigation piece is mostly just he said that, she said that, they said that

And these are supposed to be the sources

Don't forget the cherry on top

[next dirge]

They are clearly not citing TASS as a main source here, but western intelligence sources (likely American), with the TASS report corroborating that

[severe void]

Oh ok that's better then.

[next dirge]

“according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation”

[severe void]

Yeah so basically can be anyone right?

I think they underestimate how laughable that sentence is

[stone wadi]

It reads like someone dug up Tom Clancy and told him to write a book

[next dirge]

Given what we’re told in the article it seems fair to speculate that it could be from Zelensky’s camp, the article is suggestive of some internal tensions between the presidential office and military/security leadership. Note the criticism of Zaluzhny and “exoneration” of any knowledge by Zelensky

[severe void]

Yeah, that's basically all this is—speculation.

[next dirge]

Right? It’s a report, not an investigation. Wa Po is a well connected and generally reliable outlet, and accounts from insiders can be valuable evidence, too.

What’s your reservation here?

[vocal violet]

You're not wrong, but anonymous government officers/intelligence analysts have in the past shared wrong information to reputable media, which they still published

The information may be true here, but any conclusive evidence is going to need more than just anonymous accounts

[crystal fiber]

I'd say that with the previous verifiable information about the rental boats etc. the "overall picture" of this story remains believable, but any new details coming out of anonymous sources, especially ones that seem to conveniently serve domestic politicking for/against specific political figures...

Basically, remember that unsanctioned leakers are risking their careers. So there are reasons why they are saying what they are saying, including political motives, personal motives, the leaks being in fact sanctioned by their bosses, etc...

[limber hinge]

MY RESERVATION is that the propaganda is so deep and thick I have a hard time believing anyone. WAPO is far from above circulating suspect stories, nor is the NY Times. And various interested parties have a vested interest in widening the gap within Ukraine leadership.

Holding fire for more support before I believe this one.

[strange bane]

It's all a bit suspect that the individual named just so happens to be an officer whos got himself in a bit of legal trouble.

Apparently for "abuse of position" in relation to a Russian pilot's defection?

[smoky wave]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/17tk7x7/why_we_decided_to_not_allow_the_washington_posts/

[next dirge]

Suggesting the Wa Po journalist is a Russian foreign agent, that Jack Teixeira was just some random guy on Discord and that the articles main sources are clearly Putin and TASS

[summer vine]

That's the dumbest shit. Oh hey, one of the (many) authors was a Moscow correspondent. She carries the Russian taint now.

[mossy star]

The three main criticisms I've seen of the story -- "they only cited TASS!" "Khurshudyan / Moscow bureau have no credibility!" "oh yet another anonymously cited story" -- just show really bad media literacy, tbh

You think it's possible to get a US/EU intel official or Ukrainian military intelligence source on the record on this story? Seriously? They'd be fired or jailed, depending on the country.

"Only TASS was cited!" --It was basically just color for the story, nothing revelatory
"Moscow bureau!" --Khurshudyan is based in Kyiv, leading their new bureau there!

The thing I wonder about with this story is if Chervinsky is basically being scapegoated, in particular with all of the hubbub of the Ze vs. Za (I'm calling Zaluzhnyi that now) feud. Chervinsky is already jailed, had a couple of failed spectacular ops pinned on him (whether true or not), so why not a third?

[pure vine]

hell at this point it could even be someone throwing this onto chervinsky to sink him for good

[stone wadi]

We shouldn't imagine that the Kremlin aren't aware of that fact and as such use that to the full advantage....

[mossy star]

What does that mean?

[stone wadi]

That they are free to invent anything they want and no one is actually able to dispute it with authority

[restive kelp]

The Kremlin pushed every thinkable falsehood over the last few months about nordstream (it was the UK, it was the US and so on), but they were pretty silent on the Ukraine connection.

[mossy star]

Yeah they've been very dismissive of this being Ukraine, always blaming the US and UK.

[stone wadi]

That would be in line with the wish to not establish one narrative but remove the existence of any narrative to gain prominentness.

Have any real motive for Ukriane to attack the gas lines been suggested?
Best motivation I can come up with for Ukriane would be to prevent russian blackmail of Germany in the future, but that is a motive with to many fitting actors

[pure vine]

https://vxtwitter.com/auonsson/status/1724310089782493259?s=46&t=t0cnGSY3MZZcxBc9IvBOTQ

[severe void]

Calling a criticism towards anonymous source as bad media literacy is a stretch. We have seen few examples where anonymous official turned out to be bogus, politically motivated (Arestovych), or even weaponized.

Personal opinion: If one is willing to share an intel so important that it could possibly influence a country at war, then you're right they have to take the accountability for it. That just shows the seriousness of them and the intel.

Everybody lies, even officials, even more if you use anonymity.

[stray iris]

yes, but for what purpose? (i mean here: in the context of these recent nord stream coverage)

[limber hinge]

This topic is clearly veering from fact finding to wild speculation this loosing its value.

Has anyone a comprehensive timeline of Newnew Polar Bear? I am curious why she dripped anchor, how fast she was going at the time, and if she cut just FO cables or also cut the gas line. Recent stories seem very piecemeal, lacking required context and information.

[elfin cradle]

@pure finch iirc puca did some maps where you could see the ship going slower, and the finish police says for how long the anchor were dropped.

[elfin cradle]

That is my theory, the sources WaPo and Der Speigle used is not legit. Probably disgruntled with the admin and just spins on Hersh made-up story and make that beliveable, but that is just speculation and nothing that belongs here.

https://twitter.com/search?q=newnew (from%3Aauonsson)&src=typed_query There is a lot of intresting stuff if you read post from auonsson

[restive kelp]

this

[limber hinge]

@strange bane @restive kelp @elfin cradle

Christ do I struggle with this interface. Could not figure out how to remove those people, or how they got there.
Sorry all.

I lucked at the earlier graphics and if I interpret all this correctly.
Newness Polar Bear was in a bit of a gale.
Secrossed the fier optics and gas line at about 11 knots, but dropped to 9 for a brief bit.
PRESUMABLY she dropped her anchor for a bit which drug across the various facilities doing damage.

The question becomes WHY did she drop anchor? And the Captain is mum, not talking.

About correct?

[strange bane]

The pipeline would be clearly marked on their charts, whether paper or electronic, there’s no argument that it’s inadvertent if these people are going to claim to be in any way competent at their job.

That said, the captain staying silent is totally expected. The criminalisation of the individual seafarer is a major issue in the maritime industry/regulatory bodies, so I wouldn’t be surprised that the captain isn’t providing testimony that is just a rope to hang himself.

That said, on the topic of common sense, we see the site of the damage to the Finnish-Estonian cables being about 100-110m, it doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Anchoring in poor weather makes sense of course, but there’s ship handling drawbacks to dangling a big weight down the side beyond getting it snagged.

So you’re in a storm and you’re struggling to handle your ship, the only reason you’re going to drop the anchor is if it will provide an actual benefit to you, why would you drop the anchor if it’s actually going to make your job handling the ship harder.

The common sum for the length of chain needed to get a good hold is 1.5 x the square root of the depth of the water in meters.

Which gives you your answer in the number of shackles (a shackle is 90 ft or 27.5 meters).

So 15 shackles, ish

That’s 412.5 meters of anchor chain you need to drop.

[eager moss]

To date there are 2 cables and one pipeline damaged in the Gulf of Finland that we know about, all directly linked to the NNPB. The SPB - Kaliningrad cable was repaired earlier this month by a Russian 'submarine rescue' vessel, the Spasatel Karev; it replaced the cable over a distance of about 3 kilometres, some 18 kilometres west of the Connector pipeline, and was in the area conducting a survey and performing the cable lay from 4th November for a week.

there is also a damaged cable connecting Estonia to Sweden to the west of Hiumaa Island. Several of the fo strands were inoperable but the comms traffic was rerouted. The vessel 'Belos' was on site in October for several days. The inoperability of the cable was identified on the morning of the 7th October which is coincident with when the NNPB would have been crossing the location where the cable is damaged; but there is little information available on this location since the Belos left the site.

The Fin-Est cable about 10 km east of the Connector pipeline was repaired a few weeks ago.

[eager moss]

There are clear changes in vessel speed that coincide with the pipeline crossing and both the Fin-Est cable and SPB-Kaliningrad cable (some excellent work by Kari Knuuttila who identified all of these). There is also a speed change coincident with the cables west of Hiumaa which has been identified.

So the damaged pipeline and cables in the Gulf of Finland are over a distance of about 30 kilometres; there are a lot of other cables that will have been crossed by the vessel both to the west and east if the anchor dragging was not local to this particular 30 kilometres but I haven't as yet heard anything about other damaged cables. The significance of the cable failure to the west of Hiumaa Island is whether it shows that the anchor dragging was over a much longer distance; the location is outside the Gulf of Finland about 100 kilometres west of the Connector pipeline. Has anyone seen any detail about any survey findings or conclusions about this location ?

[elfin cradle]

Not that many cables between the Swedish-Estonian com cable and baltic connector.
https://twitter.com/GaryGnutter/status/1715485833401159730/photo/1

[eager moss]

That's correct but there are 2 to the south and one just to the north of the Swedish-Estonian cable; many more further east in the Gulf of Finland. If we're trying to understand the extent of the distance travelled by the vessel whilst dragging an anchor why limit ourselves to a narrower geographic area than the distance travelled by the vessel until such time as we know where it was dropped and where it was recovered. The question that arises is whether the known damaged cables define those anchor drop/recovery locations; we know that the remnants of the anchor shaft and the chain were sufficient to cut the FinEst cable and that there is an anchor fluke broken off the recovered anchor which could have occurred prior to the Connector pipeline.

[limber hinge]

Saral
Thank you for that.
I have further questions.
Why were they trying to anchor?
If I understand correctly they dropped anchor while traveling about 11 knots. That would indicate under power, not laying ahull. I would assume anchoring practice is to come into the wind, minimize forward motion or drop back slightly while lowering anchor.
I would assume lowering anchor at 11 knots would risk catastrophic failure. As it was the anchor broke, it could have been something on the ship.
No matter how you cut it this was a extremely poor move.

[strange bane]

I think the biggest issue is that they don’t even have enough anchor chain to in any way conceivably obtain any holding power from dropping the anchor.

You gain holding power by getting as much of the anchor chain on the bottom and laying it out backwards and forward, the anchor doesn’t grip in or anything, it just holds the end of the anchor chain from twisting and moving.

The depth of the damaged stuff from the NNPB is about 100-110 metres, which is already about 4 shackles (27.5 metres each) if you’re anchor chain is straight up and down to the surface, and that has 0 holding power, that’s just enough to get the anchor/chain to the bottom.

[strange bane]

This is an ideal in alright weather, but then you remember the weather was pretty cruddy, so 15 shackles just to obtain a decent amount of holding power, but then add a couple on for the cruddy weather.

No ship has that many shackles.

A Nimitz-class carrier has 12 shackles, a Gerald R. Ford-class has 16 shackles (but its anchor chain is a relatively lightweight), that’s barely enough to achieve the minimum you’re going to want to have to anchor in 100-110 metres.

Sorry, to clarify, I see the damage to the Balticconnector gas line occurred at 60m, whilst the communications cable damage occurred at 70m on the 7/8th October.

So the “adequate” number is 11.5 shackles (for 60m) to 12.5 shackles (for 70m), that’s still an amount that I’d question if the New New Polar Bear even has.

[limber hinge]

SaraL
Recreational boating has its own guidelines but they are quite different as our typical anchorage is much less deep, very roughly 2 to 8 meters range. None the less I agree with all your points.
There appears no obvious good reason for NNPB to drop anchor as they did.
It was either a big mistake or intentional. And if intentional, in my understanding, quite risky. They did break an anchor, they could have damaged the ship, or they conceivably could have been caught there in an embarrassing position. I guess I lean towards mistake for that last reason.

[raw nexus]

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_100293992/nord-stream-2-geheime-nato-daten-offengelegt-bundeswehr-muss-einschreiten.html

[grand nest]

Is that suggesting that the information that leaked aided the sabotage?

[tired prawn]

‘Everything indicates’ Chinese ship damaged Baltic pipeline on purpose, Finland says
POLITICO
https://www.politico.eu/article/balticconnector-damage-likely-to-be-intentional-finnish-minister-says-china-estonia/

[limber hinge]

A slightly different account, same cover photo.

https://gcaptain.com/finland-demands-investigators-on-vessel-that-broke-gas-pipeline/

[limber hinge]

Zeihan, always entertaining.

https://youtu.be/rtwe3l-AXXw?si=f8mC9FoUTYZuYC6z

[junior moat]

https://bsky.app/profile/investigativ.bsky.social/post/3kg4ye3qddw2c

in this article it says when Andromeda ⛵ was in the marina in Kołobrzeg not only did the crew get inspected, but also the boat itself. And it says it wasn't only border police but also US intelligence doing the inspection.

If this is true, the crew must have known afterwards they were found out, also if this is true US intelligence probably knows exactly what the boat was doing.

[limber hinge]

Been almost a week and I still find no English language outlet covering this story.

Yhe American magazine The Atlantic published a long story on Nordstream 3 days ago. It does bot mention Kolobzreg.

[stone wadi]

🤷

[tidal knoll]

Invites are not hard to come by.

https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1143514211469754449

[stone wadi]

Sure,
Still rather bad form that even reading it is members only

[vocal violet]

Bsky is expected to open their links to the public soon

[eager moss]

There have been two recent developments related to Nordstream pipelines.

Since September, the Igor Ilyin has been surveying the two NS2 pipelines at the shore approach to the russian landfall as Ust-Luga, over a distance of about 115 kilometres. The Igor Ilyin is a shallow water (up to 60 metres) diving support vessel which also has ROV and marine survey capability. It surveyed the pipelines over a period of several weeks until early December.

There has also been permission granted for a Swedish branch of a survey company to provide 'engineering services' related to Nordstream pipelines. The company is Ocean Infinity which conducts marine surveys as well as pipeline inspection/survey work. This is an extract from a media report :

"Gothenburg companies get permission to round off the sanctions - to inspect Nord Stream
The Gothenburg company Ocean Infinity AB receives an exemption from the sanctions against Russia for carrying out engineering services at the blown Nord Stream gas pipeline.
This is evident from documents that GP has seen and confirmed by the relevant authority.
We assess that we can make exceptions because it is a question of critical energy supply within the EU, says investigator Karl Ekenstaf at Kommerskollegium."

link to the report https://www.gp.se/nyheter/goteborgsforetag-far-tillstand-att-runda-sanktionerna-for-att-inspektera-nord-stream-.6c5f6f02-14c3-4452-999e-a302c8f6ed42

It looks like there are steps being taken to determine the extent of repair/replacement work that may be required to the damaged Nordstream 2 pipeline. It will be some time before the damaged pipeline can be brought into service but the survey and inspection is the first step; that's what these developments look like - preparation for the survey and inspection activities.

[junior moat]

oh sorry. here's the article itself : https://archive.is/sFPJS

[stone wadi]

Thanks

[royal axle]

This just came in and sort-of related: https://vxtwitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1736195630777700851 xpost #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe

[limber hinge]

Wall Street Journal

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-probe-faces-resistance-from-poland-962aa5f9?st=5i3ithlfteauyfl

[royal axle]

. . . cut . . . , approximately when a "Russian Research Trawler" was passing it.--- Jeez xpost #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe https://vxtwitter.com/HamWa07/status/1750924617311518785

[eager moss]

Company and other announcements in the last few days have all stated that "Based on the information received and collected during the fault investigation, the fault was not caused by an external factor."

Here is one reference https://www.fingrid.fi/ajankohtaista/tiedotteet/2024/suomen-ja-viron-valisen-sahkonsiirtoyhteyden-vika-paikannettu/

and an english translation :

*Another of the electricity transmission connections between Finland and Estonia failed on Friday night, January 26. The investigation of the failure of the EstLink 2 connection has been continued over the weekend and the fault has been located on the Estonian side.

The failure of the EstLink 2 connection has been investigated in close cooperation with the Estonian grid company Elering and various authorities since Friday morning. During Sunday, the fault was located in the coastal area in Estonia. The more precise location of the fault continues, and the repair schedule will become more precise during week 5 as the exact location and nature of the fault becomes clear.

The electricity transmission connection is out of use for the time being. Repair work will be started as soon as the exact nature of the fault has been determined. Based on the information received and collected during the fault investigation, the fault was not caused by an external factor.

The failure of the electricity transmission connection between Finland and Estonia did not endanger the operation of the electricity system in Finland. The electrical system works normally and the electricity supply is currently good.*

One of the most common causes of failure of subsea power cables (after anchor and trawling impact) is failure of the insulation allowing water ingress. Here's one paper on the subject : https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1049/gtd2.12117

[royal axle]

Eyes out, watching?!
https://VXtwitter.com/balticjam/status/1752789459400073374
xpost #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe message fyi @seva

[eager moss]

Thanks. There's a lot of surveillance occurring in the Baltic these days; it's the only realistic action that can be taken to try to deter any 'unfriendly' interference with cables (power and telecomms) and pipelines.

[stone wadi]

if they "snag" the cable we should just sink it ASAP and then when russia complain just telling them "they most have gotten caught in something"

[strange bane]

As context, fishing trawlers getting their nets snagged on underwater is a constant challenge.

It happens about 250 times a year, I recall reading an article a while back that something like 40% of the damage is caused by snagged fishing nets, with another 20% being caused by ships getting their anchors caught.

I’ll try to find the article.

[strange bane]

https://archive.ph/EvZol

[stone wadi]

I know but strangely they usually just pick up ww2 mines not cables on the Baltic untill really recently....

[next dirge]

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sverige/svenskt-besked-om-nord-stream-i-veckan/

According to preliminary investigation leader Mats Ljungqvist, he will make a decision in the investigation within the next few days. Now he is just waiting for a final message.

• I cannot say whether it will be tomorrow or on Wednesday or on Thursday, but a decision is in any case on the way, says Chamber prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist.

[limber hinge]

Swedish prosecutor plans Nord Stream blast decision this week

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-prosecutor-plans-nord-stream-decision-this-week-2024-02-05/

[civic rapids]

Just rereading and checking for other new news (https://jamesreedgermany.substack.com/p/a-broader-picture-of-nord-steam-sabotage) found this from Dec 2023 quite in-depth re Rustem A.

I'm not sure if this will be relevant but figured I'd best to mention as it may not be known/remembered but incase it helps answer/explain other questions re the named individuals so far. This stood out due to other unrelated rabbit holes of history I'd been going down: "A passport bearing Rustem A.’s name also shows him registered in Kerch, Crimea. The document was issued in 1999. Surprisingly, his birthplace is listed as Uzbekistan." When Stalin was ethnically cleansing the Crimean Tatar's, Uzbekistan I believe was the main place they were deported to so may explain why the identity was born Uzbekistan but native to Crimea

[stone wadi]

Wait
They found a passport from 1999?
so that would be what? 2 decades out of date than

[strange bane]

I'd imagine most passport offices would have a digital copy of passports they've issued, probably came from those records?

[stone wadi]

they should have enough data to recreate the passport if they wished to
not that they really should need to keep a copy of anything except the photo

[strange bane]

True, could be from business records, you'd have to supply a copy of your passport for that as well.

[nimble gull]

Swedish investigation ends with a whimper. Conclusion: it’s not Swedish jurisdiction. 🤷‍♂️
Edit: better link.

https://www.svd.se/a/jlRnRz/brottsutredningen-om-nord-stream-laggs-ner

No further (or future) comments on the conclusions on the investigation or the collaboration with the German investigation.

[stone wadi]

Basically the expected outcome
Means that they have learned what they needed and that they can't say anything about in because of international diplomatic considerations

[nimble gull]

A classic Swedish investigation, just running out the clock 🤣.

[royal axle]

Yes, my primary thought when I post especially this type of blatant sabotage, or at least in line for a full investigation. Thank you!

[eager moss]

In May last year (9 months ago) Ljungqvist seemed to be laying the ground work for the lack of any meaningful findings when he stated that the investigation's objective was to “find out whether Sweden or Swedish infrastructure has been used for the attack and whether there are people who should be prosecuted for participation". Which may 'explain' the otherwise strange conclusion that the incident was not within Sweden's jurisdiction when one of the sabotage sites was in the Swedish EEZ. Why it then took 9 months to admit that nothing was going to be revealed is anyone's guess but such narrow terms of reference does suggest that that this outcome was considered preferable very early on in the investigation.

[stone wadi]

I think I said as much at the time.
It's not a bit unlikely that they know a lot more than they are willing or geopoliticaly able to say

[nimble gull]

Not to be conspiratorial but that seems likely.

[nimble gull]

It is a little strange considering we know (from early reporting in der Spigel, likely reporting on information originally from Dutch intelligence) that the Andromeda group either had planned or had tried to use a harbor in Sweden as a base of operations

But it was vaguely stated, unsure if it was a foiled or abandoned plan. If the former it seems odd to say it’s completely out of Swedish jurisdiction.

[stone wadi]

Given that the main naval base of Sweden are basically within sight of the attack location it would be rather odd if they dident know a lot more just from rutine,
though I would bet that even if some department in the Navy know exactly what happened and who did it they will only have told the prosecutor "Yes we know how and who but more than that we are not going to reveal for now, by the way, you are not allowed to tell anyone that we know"

[nimble gull]

I Hope you’re right. I suppose this adds weight to the German investigation, or at least doesn’t contradict it. If there was any proof Russia did it I don’t think they’d be as cautious.

I seem to remember reading that the plan to use a Swedish boat had been foiled though, but maybe I’m making that up. Will do some looking when I get to a computer

[stone wadi]

I still think the germans are barking up a stupid tree

[nimble gull]

They did set foot in Sweden but I guess that’s not enough to make it Swedish jurisdiction. https://www.zeit.de/politik/2023-09/nord-stream-pipelines-attack-anniversary-english/seite-3

[nimble gull]

A lot of of us think that intuitively, but given that we have no other real leads, c’est la vie…

If every western investigation/intelligence outlet is backing this story, then i guess we accept it or dive into seriously conspiratorial waters

[stone wadi]

have their been any better argument for "a small boat at night during a storm" than "it can be done from a larger boat, during the day, with calm weather and a full stand by crew"`?

[nimble gull]

Not sure I understand the question… just because it’s unlikely doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. And as entertaining as it is to think that CIA, MIVD, German police etc are all hiding something I’m not sure it’s a healthy route to go down. If they knew that a Ukranian cell did it from day 1, that would have been devastating news to break in 2022 or even much of 2023. Much less so now, or in the future, as unfortunately, the attention has faded.

[stone wadi]

I still think that during 2022 and early 2023 it would be basically mild public "you shouldent have done that" and high fives all around when the cameras are off

[nimble gull]

Maybe. I remember a lot of fear about gas/electricity prices, the environmental impact and I think it would have done a lot to tarnish the image of Ukraine as purely good guys. This was THE major news item for a long time, and it seems like now it is destined to be a very small foot note in history.

It would have only taken a cold winter to turn opinion.

[stone wadi]

this happened after gas stockpiles was fill to bursting
and the amount of methane was less than all cows in Germany fart during 3 months

[nimble gull]

That was definitely not how it was reported at the time is what I’m saying

Just one example: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/klimatchocken-gaslackorna-ger-utslapp-stora-som-hela-sveriges

Etc.
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/28/nord-stream-methane-gas-leaks-may-be-biggest-ever-with-warning-large-climate-risk

It may have been hyperbole or downgraded later, but the fact that we’ve all been here talking about it for a year and a half now I think is pretty telling. It was a huge event.

[stone wadi]

yeah, journalists are ofthen idiots

also notice that they only compare to smaller nations
is equivalent to third of Denmark’s annual CO2 emissions
so just guessing maybe a 10 th of a percent of the global co2
and that is being genourus

Globally, cows and other livestock animals are responsible for about 40 percent of methane emissions

the 12.74 million cattle in Germany produce 1.04 million tons of CH4 per year
778 000 000 m3 is 557 670.4 tonne
so we just need to stop all of germanys cows from farting for 6 months and the whole thing will be as if it had never happened

[nimble gull]

Hehe to be fair that sounds like a shitty job 😂

[royal axle]

Posting before this ages, another example of a suspicious accident...https://VXtwitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1756323493447114950 xpost #maritime

[eager moss]

That incident was on 21st January; reportedly a loss of engine power so the anchor was dropped. I'm not sure it's particularly suspicious unless being Russian qualifies. Cables are damaged frequently, mostly by trawling and ships anchors; most don't get much attention and are just repaired. There was a chart of frequency of the causes of cable failures in the paper I posted two weeks ago (31st Jan). This is another data set from a UN submission.

[eager moss]

The Andromeda was sighted in Sandhamn on 13th September where she was refuelled; (the alleged sighting in Christianso on 12th has now been discredited). This chart shows the locations where the Andromeda is thought to have been sighted (but ignore Chrisianso and the anemometer locations on Bornholm 🙂 ).

[limber hinge]

Seva
Does not someone have an equivalent make of the Russian sub tender and attendant support ships. Maybe make the red and the the NATO observing ships in Pink?

Why is the very little on the sub tenders movement?

Was there ever any reason to rule its participation out?

Frankly I continue to believe the most likely solution is the sub tender was the main culprit with Andromeda playing some support role.

[eager moss]

I think you might be referring to a 'rescue' vessel in the vicinity a few weeks prior to the pipeline explosions ? I didn't do much work on the vessels in the area other than the Andromeda - which I did a little work on (wind/wave data and vessel movements) mostly because I'm sceptical as to the feasibility of what was being suggested about it's involvement. I recall that others did some work on some of the other vessels.

[limber hinge]

Seva,
Yes it was a “rescue” vessel equipped with a submersible capable of launching divers. And it was accompanied by 2 tugs which could have been used for positioning.

I just find it so very idd there is so much emphasis on a poorly selected vessel while a completely adequate set of vessels is ignored.

Unless there is something I am missing.

[eager moss]

Agreed - but it possibly indicates how successful the distracting story about a yacht performing work in 80 metres water depth has been.

[limber hinge]

Yup. It strikes me that the national interests really do NOT want us to know the true story.

But why?

[eager moss]

That's not unusual, it happens all the time; maybe in thirty years or so someone might decide to let those still alive at that time know what really occurred.

[nimble gull]

Thanks. I realized that despite being so into this, I’m sometimes having trouble keeping the verified/maybe/speculative apart. How has the Christianson sighting being discredited?

[nimble gull]

Hard to find any other reason besides them knowing either an ally, a group of allies or the nation were all supposed to rally behind did it. And not Russia as just about everyone thought for the first many months. In the end it doesn’t really change whether the Andromeda story is true or not, it seems to me.

Or put a bit more succinctly: if it was Russia, they would have told us by now. Any other perp, and the best we’re going to get is a drawn out dribble of news until it’s largely forgotten.

[limber hinge]

Aro,
I am not as sure of that although I can clearly see the attraction of your reasoning.

There may well be other events going on we are not privy to.

What is clear is that the media is highlighting the Andromeda story over a equally or more interesting Russian Sub Tender story.

WHY?

I feel strongly we are being intentionally miss directed. And I believe there is evidence in that direction.

[nimble gull]

Well it’s been clear from day 1 that the sources for these stories came from western Intelligence (hard to say whether German, Dutch or American or some combination), so I find it hard to just put the blame on “the media”. And honestly if the CIA and friends either believe this story or really want us to believe this story, it’ll be a long time before any other version will gain traction.

First mention of the "Andromeda" lead came just a couple of days the day after the attack. At the time it was brushed over (which on a personal level almost drove me nuts - I was writing every journalist working the case and I think my first posts in this channel were about this little tidbit in Spiegel's reporting, which was ignored for months).

https://www.spiegel.de/international/sabotage-in-the-baltic-nord-stream-attacks-expose-vulnerability-of-european-infrastructure-a-03337f93-a32a-40a1-9266-fc2692289e33 - published September 30th, 2022. There's less detailed versions (not mentioning Ukraine) from the 27th. So this story has been there, since day 1.

[limber hinge]

Well if the "media" ignores a valid story line (the Russian vessels) then they are part of the problem.

[eager moss]

The Christianso 'sighting' was always a bit tenuous but the discrediting is due to the harbourmaster (or whatever his job title is) reporting that the vessel was not logged as having docked in Christianso and that it had not been sighted in the dock. Assuming the guy was doing his job on the day I'd suggest that this is the more reliable source of information. There's a media report that addresses this from many months ago - I'll see if I can find it. I should clarify that when I put that map together of Andromeda locations (October 2023) Christianso was included as a possible location.

[royal axle]

Thanks. Looking back today at the many times I jumped the gun, naive to the regularity of seemingly unique events (ZAP Enerhodar events especially). Oh that reminds me, there is a new incident from yesterday I should post ... here it is fyi #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe message

[stone wadi]

this really don't sound likely

[nimble gull]

Likely enough for the CIA, which is the whole point, and still where we are today… this whole story is “unlikely”.

[stone wadi]

I was more thinking that it feels unlikely that russian intelegence would be conserned about ukrainian attacks on EU stuff

[nimble gull]

That’s not what it says, is it?

[stone wadi]

Sorry, got a dubbel negation in there by mistake

[nimble gull]

Hehe I had to read it a couple of times. Yeah, I don't disagree and by the statements in German media, the CIA didn't think it was particularly likely, but still warned European intelligence about it.

It's just to say that the "Andromeda version" has been in the news since literally the day after the attacks, by way of western intelligence sources. Seems even more unlikely that they would have an agenda to pin it on Ukraine, no?

[stone wadi]

It also sounds like a potential barium test to find leeks and putting in the preparations for a false flag attack

[strange bane]

https://news.err.ee/1609255413/balticconnector-case-more-sabotage-than-an-accident-experts-say

[limber hinge]

That is a good article. Nicely brings all the parts together.
And leaves little doubt that the act was intentional.
The "Why?" of course is open to interrpretation. And perhaps the "Whay?" is the same or similar for NordStream.

[stone wadi]

Why is: to punish Finland for joining NATO

[clear lava]

https://www.polskieradio.pl/399/7976/Artykul/3337299,wyciek-tajnych-danych-nato-o-nord-stream-2-sprawe-bada-prokuratura

Investigators are looking into whether officials of the maritime office in Stralsund broke the law by handing over documents containing sensitive information to NATO during the procedure preceding the approval of the construction of the disputed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

[eager moss]

This is a repeat of a story that emerged about 2 months ago; it seems to be "much ado about nothing" since the information shown below was available before Nordstream 1 was built. Even if the precise area for submarine activity had changed it would be naiive of anyone to think that submarines may not have been active outside of those areas - so what is the problem ? These drawings are freely available in the online Nordstream library.

[strange bane]

Nord Stream 2 AG asked the maritime office in Stralsund for information regarding, among others, NATO submarine operating areas in the Baltic Sea.

This information is marked on navigational charts.

They aren't confined to it, but submarines have marked "submarine exercise areas" where you've to be slightly more vigilant, where you're not really supposed to anchor, and fishing vessels aren't supposed to trawl, at least if its active.

UK example, but they are all marked: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7b9a31e5274a7202e183bb/mgn012.pdf

[eager moss]

It would be standard practice on a pipeline project to request a host of information from different agencies, including for independently confirming the information shown elsewhere such as on marine charts, to allow engineering and project planning to proceed. Which is one reason why I doubt the veracity of the reported concern and wonder if it's just part of the current scaremongering / warmongering campaign by NATO politicians. The err report a few days ago is similarily a repeat of previous claims with no new reliable information, just the opinions of alleged "experts" being promoted implicitly as fact, and relevant facts being omited or downplayed as less important.

[clear lava]

This is a repeat of a story that emerged about 2 months ago;

By a parliamentary inquiry - now its being pursued by the prosecutors office.

I dont really understand what you are saying, you mean that there was no need for NS2 to ask for documentation? The story seems to be about unwarrantedly detailed information including classified documents being shared, under the guise of a routine procedure.

Not that I think there's anything surprising that NS2 might have deliberately tried to uncover NATO secrets, that should not be a revelation at all.

wonder if it's just part of the current scaremongering / warmongering campaign by NATO politicians

Do you have any kind of evidence for the assumption that the prosecutors offices investigation is just a political show? Your assertion anyways falls apart since the parliamentary investigation began many months ago, in contrast to the recency of some of the current political discourse. Also, thats a pretty ill informed assessment just in general.

[onyx spade]

Reminder that Russia had spies in Norway collecting intelligence on policy responses in case of Nord Stream sabotage. #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe message and https://vxtwitter.com/christogrozev/status/1585575421520773123

[eager moss]

No I'm not saying that there was no need to request information. I am saying the opposite - that a request for information is standard on pipeline projects and this includes information on military activity such as submarine exercise areas.

*“The prosecutor's office in Germany will investigate the leak of information about the location of NATO submarines when transferring documents to Nord Stream 2 AG” *

For classified information to be contained on one page of a 637 page document sounds a lot more like the consequence of a careless public service than Nordstream requesting classified information. And yet you have interpreted the story as malpractice by Nordstream which is clearly demonstrated by
“The story seems to be about unwarrantedly detailed information including classified documents being shared, under the guise of a routine procedure. Not that I think there's anything surprising that NS2 might have deliberately tried to uncover NATO secrets, that should not be a revelation at all.”
Which was the intent of the article - to mislead people into associating the possible leak with malpractice by someone representing Russia.

You wrongly take my comment about the political machinations as a comment on the politicising of the prosecutors office when you could have understood it to refer to the media report - even when I also referred to a second recent media report on the BalticConnector pipeline. It’s the media that are complicit in the scaremongering which has been the case for many years but which has become a lot more prevalent over the last year.
To suggest that my assessment ‘falls apart’ because the parliamentary investigation started a few months ago fails to recognise that the scaremongering by NATO country politicians has been prevalent for much longer and has only become more frequent in recent months.

You are of course entitled to express your opinion that my assessment was ‘ill informed’. In contrast I would say that my assessment is formed as an observer that does not have an obsessive-compulsive determination to find Russia/Putin responsible for every incident of damage to pipelines or cables in the Baltic and elsewhere.

[onyx spade]

re: "...obsessive-compulsive determination to find Russia/Putin responsible for every incident of damage to pipelines or cables in the Baltic..."

Russia has a history, and a policy, of destroying undersea power and data infrastructure in the west. The invasion of Ukraine was preceded by Russia cutting SvalSat. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687

[eager moss]

does that exclude the possibility that such incidents are not deliberate acts by any party, including Russia ?

[onyx spade]

Can you name another nation which destroys undersea infrastructure?

[eager moss]

I note that the link provided was to an article that didn't provide evidence of involvement and only made the claim of 'accused'. So your argument is that because Russia has vessels that survey cables that must mean that they subsequently damage those cables deliberately ? And therefore any damage to cables or pipelines is a deliberate act that must have been conducted by Russia ? Do you think that is logical and not the product of an obsessive-compulsive determination ?

[onyx spade]

Russia’s secretive Main Directorate of Underwater Research (GUGI) runs the Yantar.

Yantar took up a stationary position between two undersea internet cables on Tuesday morning. According to AIS (automated identification system) positions collected by MarineTraffic.com, the ship moved into a position between the cables around 4am local time. She has remained there for most of Wednesday before resuming her journey southwest.

In the hours before stopping, it had altered course to run parallel to the expected route of the Celtic Norse undersea cable. The other nearby cable is the AEConnect-1 which runs between Ireland and the United States.

Based on previous operating patterns Yantar is likely to deploy for several months and conduct multiple surveys, often near internet cables.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/08/russian-spy-ship-yantar-loitering-near-trans-atlantic-internet-cables/

[eager moss]

so it's surveying cables, confirming burial or embedment and remotely identifying structure. It might even be interecepting communications. Do you think Russia is the only country that does that ? Or do you see that as evidence for something else ?

[onyx spade]

Medvedev has threatened these cables.

"If we proceed from the proven complicity of Western countries in blowing up the Nord Streams, then we have no constraints - even moral - left to prevent us from destroying the ocean floor cable communications of our enemies," Medvedev, a former Russian president who is now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said on Telegram.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-moscow-now-has-free-hand-destroy-enemies-undersea-2023-06-14/

[clear lava]

Youre quite right it might have just been the result of carelessness, which is also a word I would use to describe the very conception of Nord Stream and its surrounding politics. In the haste to process a routine procedure, some secrets were leaked. Apparently just one page, but perhaps other information that might otherwise not have been shared if due diligence was made.

It doesnt really matter if NS2 did have this intention or not. Its entirely irrelevant really, and was not actually the reason why I shared the story. Its rather you who jumped out at the apparently implied implications of this article and spun it into some kind of sustained narrative of Russophobia.

Frankly, the event is serious enough in its own right. It only takes a new dimension due to the events of recent years and the realization of very real consequences it might entail that might have been overlooked otherwise. So if you want to search for a story beyond what was reported then yes, theres a story about how Europeans treated certain subjects and only at a very consequential later time realize how badly they erred.

[tidal knoll]

Hey everyone, it's great that this thread is still going, but please remember that we are looking for either open source evidence, or ways to uncover more open source evidence, and that speculation and opinions don't have much of a place here, except when relating to the previously mentioned goals.

[eager moss]

Any 'sustained narrative on Russophobia' is the consequence of commentary on my posts and the defence of those posts which I am surely allowed to do in any discussion when criticised. It wasn't I who accused someone else of being ill-informed. Nor did I interpret the media article in the manner in which you did "The story seems to be about unwarrantedly detailed information including classified documents being shared, under the guise of a routine procedure. Not that I think there's anything surprising that NS2 might have deliberately tried to uncover NATO secrets, that should not be a revelation at all."

[limber hinge]

Agreed. In this I would include items such as the newnew bear deliberately dragging anchor across cables and pipes as it shows a behavioral trend. If Russia is so blatant as to break pipe lines in the open, would that not also support the Russian involvement in NS?

It would be fantastic if we had more hard evidence to go on but in lieu of that searching for promising clues may eventually lead us to the more hard evidence.

This is a nasty bit of business and clearly various governments and news outlets are obfuscating. I personally think the newnew polar bear incident is relevant. But perhaps you disagree?

[cobalt valley]

Denmark officially closes NS-investigation after 500+ days with no information to the public https://politi.dk/koebenhavns-politi/nyhedsliste/the-joint-investigation-into-nord-stream-explosions-has-been-concluded/2024/02/26

[stone wadi]

as expected

They might say something if the German investegation ends up barking up a perticular stupid tree but even that is no real garantee

[limber hinge]

Discouraging.

[limber hinge]

https://www.gulf-insider.com/houthis-have-knocked-out-several-undersea-internet-cables/

Reports are all over the place from 1 to 4 cables. No indication I have seen of the location. At least one source postulates Iranian involvement.

I find this interesting because I see little coverage on MSM.

Yet another story being glossed over? Or perhaps people just don’t care so no point wasting time in a story?

[grand nest]

I think people just see Saudi Arabia/Djibouti and think "not my problem".

[pure vine]

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/02/cable-attack-new-undersea-threat-is-starting-to-reshape-naval-wars/ relevant

[limber hinge]

Yes, and I wonder how much of the NordStream silence is because of the relative posture between opposing parties. That speculation could go in vey many ways and is likely not for here. But it may inform how we look for actual data.

It would be interesting to look at various subsea contractors and their commercial activities since NordStream as compared to before.

How has the insurance market changed?

Are operators securing contracts to assure repair facilities are available?

Are new repair hulls being laid?

Are countries all of a sudden paying attention?

[brazen oxide]

this is on a french mainstream media relating the investigations of Intelligence Online. Intelligence Online only available through subscription... https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/podcasts/secrets-d-info/secrets-d-info-du-samedi-23-mars-2024-4156300

[nimble gull]

Interesting. Correct me if I’m wrong but I think this is the first time it’s explicitly stated that the Dutch are the source not only of the general Andromeda trail but of details like of Zaluzhny being in charge.

Also, the claim about allies being informed is quite explosive. Which allies? The UK? US? NATO? I have a hard time thinking Germany knew…

[brazen oxide]

yes in the podcast they elaborate that dutch services informed the CIA few months before the explosions that a European service ( not saying who or still the dutch) had come across the information of a plot of sabotage of Nordstream 1 by a small group of people equipped of a small submarine planned for June 2022.

[brazen oxide]

The journalist also emphasize on the close relationship between Zaluzhny and the british since the beginning of the operation "Orbital". Zaluzhni even received honors directly from Queen Elisabeth. https://www.forces.net/news/operation-orbital-british-troops-training-ukraine-trench-warfare When the dutch services informed the CIA they mentioned the commando was the Ukrainian special forces (which reported directly to Zaluzhni).

[onyx spade]

So WaPo reporting on Chervinsky is deemed accurate/confirmed?

[brazen oxide]

no. On the contrary, they believe the Chervinsky lead was just a bait....

[onyx spade]

Thanks

[nimble gull]

This is known since the days after the attack though. I was thinking specifically about the Zaluzhny connection.

[brazen oxide]

the information come from from an investigation of Intelligence Online: https://www.intelligenceonline.com/ I don't have a subscription, maybe somebody in the community does and maybe additional info is available.... In the France Inter podcast they say IO didn't give the details about their sources but were positive about involvement of Zaluzhny. Then they go on with the ties between the Brits starting with the Operation Orbital and Zaluzhny . They also mentioned he has strong stong links in the US. The journalist doesn't incriminate the Brits directly but it is somehow implied.

[neon notch]

The Dutch connection has been known for a while. Nord Stream: een geopolitieke thriller met een zeilboot in de hoofdrol - https://nos.nl/l/2491915

[crystal fiber]

Took me a second to figure out how "geopolitieke thriller" is pronounced in Dutch

[brazen oxide]

yes and the article is overall very similar. No surprise as NOS and Intelligence Online are collaborating with some others on this investigation. The recent article published by France Inter is just a little more incisive on Zaluzhny. Maybe more information have emerged recently?

[onyx spade]

Scholz's refusal on Taurus - and other lethal aid - now looks like the result of internal political pressure, based on this information. It will be interesting to see if Zaluzhny's ouster was related. German opposition believes Scholz will concede and send Taurus (3 days old article). https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/bundestag-believes-scholz-will-agree-to-transfer-1711014546.html

[nimble gull]

Not regarding Zaluzhny specifically. The general andromeda story, yes.

[graceful wharf]

From someone loosely following german news, it seems like the SPD is internally divided about supporting UA military. You have some SPD politicians now publicaly talking about wanting to “freeze” the conflict. You also have one pretty public pro UA SPD politician leaving the party now. (I.e. it looks like a not small fraction of the SPD is against helping UA militarily / believe Russia will win anyways / believe there’s some magical political solution)

Gerhard Schröders (spirit) still seems to be ingrained into the party

[neon notch]

I was looking at the Baltic Connector case again - there are still many unresolved issues. Found this update by and Estonian news programme that was quite interesting. https://www.err.ee/1609252980/eksperdid-pealtnagijale-balticconnectori-juhtum-on-pigem-sabotaaz-kui-onnetus

[limber hinge]

A article on the general undersea infrastructure security situation. Tangentially mentions NordStream as unsolved.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/16/undersea-hybrid-warfare-threatens-security-of-1bn-nato-commander-warns

[inner sandal]

A report from the Russian news agency, Tass ... https://tass.com/world/1778975

[eager moss]

The Baltic Connector pipeline has been repaired and recommissioned; gas started flowing last Monday. https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-gas-pipeline-balticconnector-china-79e29d7588aca32fe8ea4cdec96adaa9

[limber hinge]

That story point to how inane our news has become “remains focus of investigation…”. They have the anchor from the ship, they have the recorded path. Their is no reasonable shadow of doubt NewNew Polar Bear was the culprit.
There is continued speculation over INTENT. We can no longer say obvious truths.

[smoky wave]

They can't afford to defend against lawfare

[eager moss]

I didn't see the article as suggesting there was any uncertainty over the cause of the incident; it's reported 👇

*The National Bureau of Investigation, a branch of the Finnish police, said Thursday that it still believes that an anchor of the Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel Newnew Polar Bear ship, which was on its way to St. Petersburg, Russia, was dislodged and caused the damage detected in Balticconnector.

The “investigation has progressed, and there has been cooperation with the Chinese authorities probing the case,” Detective Supt. Risto Lohi, NBI’s head of the investigation, told The Associated Press.*

[limber hinge]

Seva “see the words “still believes.” And “remains the focus.” That leaves the conclusion of the investigation in the realm of “belief.”
Which is different from saying “NewNewPolarBear drug its anchor across km of seabed snagging and breaking a gas pipe line.

It has been determined the pipe line broke and that ship did it .
The Intentionality of the action may be disputable. Sorry of like the difference between manslaughter and murder.

[crystal fiber]

Note the captain never responded to police inquiries and basically disappeared. Also from what I've heard from actual sailors it doesn't really sound like something that would just happen on accident.

[eager moss]

The investigation is ongoing with the cooperation of the Chinese authorities - it would be premature for the NBI to be adamant about the perpetrator before the investigation is concluded especially if they want the Chinese cooperation to continue.

[eager moss]

I haven't seen any reports that the captain has disappeared - do you have any references ?

[eager moss]

Available data is probably a more reliable basis for assessing the likelyhood of a dropped anchor being dragged. The highest cause of damage to pipelines is dropped or dragged anchors (PARLOC reports) and the second highest cause of damage to cables is dragged anchors (image attached).

[crystal fiber]

Disappeared as in, never replied to any attempts to contact him

by the Finnish authorities at least, it's possible he might cooperate with the Chinese ones

[limber hinge]

Seva

The phrase “drag anchor” in common parlance would be understood as the anchor failing to hold fast to the bottom due to it being foul (caught in its own chain) , poor bottom conditions, extreme weather, or poor anchoring practice.

IIRC in THIS case the AIS log indicates the ship moving at moderate speed, under command, and the bottom scar shows the anchor BEING DRUG across the bottom for some kilometers.

This was NOT a failed anchoring attempt but a deliberate maneuver intended to do the kind of damage demonstrated.

The only baffling component is why? They were sure to be caught and could have done significant damage to a high profile vessel.

[eager moss]

I prefer to adopt the correct engineering / scientific understandings for the terminology being used, particularly since we're discussing pipelines and cables and I'm a subsea and pipelines engineer.

I'd be interested in seeing the information you may have that details the extent and continuous nature of the anchor 'scar' on the seabed. As I recall a drag mark (not a scar) is visible and it has been noted to be for some distance prior to the Baltic Connector pipeline BUT i've not seen any detailed description of the distance and whether the drag mark is continuous or intermittent over that distance. If you have that information I'd be very keen to see it so that I can better understand the circunstances.

Agreed it's not a failed anchoring attempt - no-one would try to drop an anchor at 11 knots unless it was an emergency situation and it was a desparate attempt to change direction or slow down. However, to jump to the conclusion that it was a deliberate act intended to cause the damage is a very large leap and ignores some pertinent facts that are known. The NIB have not yet concuded that aspect of their investigation.

your last comment could be interpreted as reasons why it wasn't a deliberate act.

[eager moss]

understood 👍 . I vaguely recall that there was some contact but very late on - possibly when the vessel was in Archangelsk or back in China but I could be wrong about that.

[royal axle]

https://vxtwitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1787526215173038183

[stone wadi]

Haha

[limber hinge]

Seva…
“Investigating the same incident, Finland and Sweden found that the damage caused to the pipeline and both cables could only have occurred by a ship dragging its anchor for over 100 nautical miles – an incident that a ship’s captain would find difficult to ignore or to be unaware of. On 24 October, the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation announced that they had retrieved an anchor embedded in the seabed next to the damaged pipeline.”

https://pamirllc.com/blog/the-protection-and-democratization-of-undersea-communications-networks

[eager moss]

That extract's a repetition of one of the many differing and conflicting opinions that have been expressed in media articles, quoting 'experts' in some cases. It's unsurprising that there are directly conflicting opinions when the commentary can be driven by political motivation of journalists instead of rational assessment of evidence. That's why I was hoping that there might be some authoritative detailed description of where the anchor track had been identified on the seabed. This is an extract from a transcript of the media briefing provided by the Finnish NBI on 24th October (or thereabouts) which is the best I've found wrt reliability. {The transcript was made by a contributor to this forum - my apologies for not remembering who . . .}

it indicates that there was a 'wide dragging track' which from my experience says that there were no furrows caused by embedment of the anchor into the seabed which would have left 'scars'. It also tells us that the track has been 'traced very far but not all the way to where it begins' which is very vague but leaves open the possibility that it was upto about 100 kms nautical miles or possibly much longer. The question of whether it is continuous or intermittent isn't addressed.

There are some outstanding questions about the anchor retrieved from the seabed - we were told at the time that it would be sent to a lab for forensic examination but i haven't seen anything reported on any findings. The condition of the anchor was the subject of some comment on this forum at the time.

[eager moss]

"what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive" 🫢 . Since that article was written, Nordstream have responded to the High Court with their refutation of the more substantive points raised in the submission by the insurance company representatives. The comments in the article from the legal expert Said Mahmoudi provide an interesting perspective and are the more informative part of the article.

[civic rapids]

Disappointing to see Navy Lookout sourcing that Covert Action Magazine, Eva Bartlett is also listed as an author there albeit only for 3 articles https://covertactionmagazine.com/author/evabartlett/

[royal axle]

FYI, Update https://vxtwitter.com/Drox_Maritime/status/1790447882375491896 🔺]

[royal axle]

https://maritime-executive.com/article/uk-s-parliament-probes-russian-oil-exploration-in-antarctica xpost #maritime

[agile steeple]

https://vxtwitter.com/PerErikSchulze/status/1794828268480438514

[royal axle]

UPD "Nothing to see here" https://x.com/United24media/status/1795889595470721122

UNITED24 Media (@United24media) on X

Russian ships have been recorded trawling back and forth on top of the main fiber optic internet cable between Svalbard and the Norwegian mainland in 2022.

This week, photos from a police investigation came out, showing the extent of the damage.

Twitter · May 29, 2024, 6:47 PM

[onyx spade]

On-topic but not news: This is an article about the undersea cable repair fleets. https://www.theverge.com/c/24070570/internet-cables-undersea-deep-repair-ships

[clear lava]

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/politik/nord-stream-2-gas-russland-merkel-e414131/

https://archive.ph/xptDK

The Merkel government has always insisted that the Russian pipeline is a "private-sector project". Previously secret documents show how strong the political lobbying was. Chronicle of a historical error.

[limber hinge]

A Wall Street Journal report on suspected Russian sabotage in Europe. It does not mention Nord Stream directly but makes a broad statement about nordic attacks and then has a captioned picture of the Nord Stream leak.

It also makes some interesting comments about some intelligence information not being admissible in court.

In summary the article does not break any ground, but implies something’s afoot. Perhaps just posturing.

Anyway, posting because of passing Nord Stream reference.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-saboteurs-behind-arson-attackat-german-factory-c13b4ece

[raw nexus]

Hey, does someone have the safed article/IA of the "new facts" that was told Welt (Springer🙄) about an Ukrainian Group and a ten year old plan?

[fair meadow]

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus252370644/Nord-Stream-Anschlag-soll-schon-vor-zehn-Jahren-geplant-worden-sein.html

Also curious to read the full article

https://archive.is/FExOe

[limber hinge]

I don’t see any new info here.
Nor do I see any outcome of the forensic evidence.

[clear lava]

In addition, video footage of the ship and the crew is said to be available. In Warsaw, according to reports, it was initially considered to make the pictures available to the German investigators. But a handover did not take place. One reason is said to be that the footage may show not only the "Andromeda" crew, but also Polish and American agents.
I hadnt heard of this before, also not sure what its supposed to mean exactly

[raw nexus]

Thx

[limber hinge]

Yeah, there is a lot of vague stuff in that report.

I had heard of the Americans being part of the inspection before, so that is not new.

The potentially “new” bit would be not handing over pictures (photos and/or video?).

[civic rapids]

The bankruptcy filing for Nord Stream 2 AG has been extended again, until 10/01/2025 https://www.sogc.ch/#!/search/publications/detail/afe07e2c-b5fa-4e0f-991e-75578a6e772d
(Is it possible for NS2 AG to become solvent again?!)

I just wanted to check as I was trying to find back to the info about when the NS2 pipeline last had an inspection carried out prior to it's destruction.

I didn't find what I was looking for originally yet but ended up coming across the mentions of bankruptcy filings as far back as end of Feb, beginning of March 2022 with Nord Stream 2 AG laying off 106 staff (Seen a higher number mentioned but this seems to be what some sites corrected the staff number to https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-anmelden-nord-stream-2-ist-zahlungsunfaehig) and there being a bit of dispute from NS2 AG about whether it had filed for bankruptcy or not so I figured to check the official Swiss Gazette listings (Results in German, Google tells me). https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nord-stream-2-says-it-has-not-filed-insolvency-2022-03-02/

The first roundabout suggestion of a bankruptcy filing I could find is this, moratorium, dated 10/05/2022 and published 13/05/2022 https://www.sogc.ch/#!/search/publications/detail/230f547e-0943-422a-ae60-da68a8cf3697

The next extension was then published on 08/09/2022 effective 10/09/2022. https://www.sogc.ch/#!/search/publications/detail/8fc69851-b98d-4d0c-81af-8382eeb0bab0

Search results for "Nord Stream 2 AG" dated after 02/09/2018 https://www.sogc.ch/#!/search/publications?keyword=nord%20stream%202%20ag

Earlier dated stuff is seperately searchable in their archive too, https://www.sogc.ch/#!/search/archive?keyword=nord%20stream%202&executeInitialSearch=true

[onyx spade]

All I can find are PIGs. If your suspicion was manual inspection sabotage, I couldn't find any. Intensive inspections were done on components on land, and it was only 7 months post-commissioning when it ruptured.

[civic rapids]

Ah no, no suspicion around that thanks. Rather looking for some old info from around the time it was all being discussed to answer someone's question on whether explosives could have been planted months earlier. I remember it being discussed and I seem to remember there being an article mentioning there was a planned inspection for July (or between then and before explosions) along with the info about the companies that provide monitoring services etc

Coming across the bankruptcy filing claims and it being disputed just made me want to check the official records for it and I could see it hadn't been shared from the sogc.ch site yet

[limber hinge]

Along these lines I wonder how the insurance payout is proceeding.

IIRC the insurance was different for aft of god or terrorisim or material failure.

It would be funny if the truth eventually comes out of a liability/insurance claim.

[civic rapids]

From the most recent I could quickly find (18/04/24), the Ins claim has been denied/rejected -
In their written defence, dated April 8 and first reported by Kommersant daily on Thursday, the insurers said Nord Stream's policy did not cover damage "directly or indirectly" resulting from war, military actions or the detonation of explosives. The insurers also stated that the policy does not cover any damage which happened "under the order of any government".
"The defendants will rely on ... the fact that the explosion damage could only have – or, at least, was more likely than not to have – been inflicted by or under the order of a government," the insurers' lawyer said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nord-stream-insurers-say-policies-did-not-cover-war-risks-kommersant-reports-2024-04-18/ So I'm not really sure why they're extending the moratorium myself

NS2 AG is suing it's insurers too:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nord-stream-sues-insurers-london-over-2022-pipeline-blasts-2024-03-12/
This mentioned in the article as from the lawsuit as well: Nord Stream's lawsuit also says one of the pipelines looked "mangled and deformed" in one area where it had been damaged, but "appeared smooth and to have been cut" in another.

[limber hinge]

Good work.

[onyx spade]

RU was throttling delivery for months prior to the 2022 invasion, as well https://www.ft.com/content/eb231586-7214-44af-99c2-b42ee408e206

[eager moss]

on the question of inspections of the pipelines : the NS2 pipelines will not have had an external or internal inspection since they had been pre-commissioned (ie gas filled) and not since June 2022 although hindsight would suggest an external inspection might have been beneficial. I can’t find any reliable record of the NS1 pipelines being inspected either externally or internally in the year prior to the explosions either. It’s worthwhile noting that the information available on contractor web sites is limited or even non-existent, probably due to the imposed sanctions in the first instance but also due to the political sensitivity following the sabotage.

[eager moss]

it’s incorrect to say that gas flow was “throttled” prior to the invasion (presumably you mean Ukraine in February 2022). The gas flow was reduced for annual maintenance which became extended due to problems with turbines - turbines were not being returned from Canada because of sanctions. This maintenance period was the last week of May in 2022 (3 months after February 24); the maintenance period was mid July in 2021. Both are clearly shown on this chart of gas imports received in Germany through Nordstream 1.

[eager moss]

the debate on the High Court submission has moved on from the position in April. The Insurers made a formal response in May to which Nordstream responded in mid-June; the NS June submission to the High Court can be found at this link : https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/u059i7efssbiqnky36scu/2024-06-14-Nord-Stream-AG-v-LIC-and-anor-CL-2024-000094-Response-to-Ds-RFI.pdf?rlkey=ct1smcz1gfyapqz11rm94foj5&e=1&dl=0

[stone wadi]

Didn't the turbine get returned and then Russia spend a number of months deflecting why they haven't started the gas yet....

Than it blow up

[eager moss]

There was a lot of posturing over the turbines by both sides at the time; both used it to push whatever case they were trying to make. The turbine that was being serviced left Canada in July. This document summarises some of the events. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/do8ev87f81om4kb5bnc11/The-Curious-Incident-of-the-Nord-Stream-Gas-Turbine.pdf?rlkey=dk5yx6dmnt3ikkvisnbuisge8&e=1&st=qqpwlkr8&dl=0

We can see from the gas flow profile I posted earlier that repressurisation of the pipeline (for gas flow) had recommenced just before the explosions occurred - but the profile does look a little curious and suggests that there may have been some problem with the repressurisation.

[onyx spade]

Thank you for the "throttled" correction. Natural gas storage facilities in Germany were only 33% full, a historic low, on Feb 15, 2022. Storage facility in Rehden, “a sustainable contribution to security of energy supply for Germany,” only 3.6% full. Gazprom subsidiary Astora owned that facility. https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/energie/gefaehrliche-abhaengigkeit-warum-gehoert-deutschlands-groesster-gasspeicher-gazprom/28014654.html

Although President Vladimir Putin denies there are any political motives behind Russia’s failure to deliver more gas to Europe, few, if any, in Europe believe him. And it’s not hard to see why. Russia’s pipeline gas export monopoly Gazprom PJSC says that it has met all the delivery requests from its customers, but prices have skyrocketed because storage levels are low and, in Germany at least, the storage sites that are close to empty are those controlled by Gazprom.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-21/europe-s-energy-pipelines-are-becoming-more-political-with-russia-belarus

[civic rapids]

Thanks, I hadn't thought to look at our high courts on it

That turbine repair for the Nord Stream, was I believe repaired but, Ru was declining to accept the turbine back blaming the sanctions. I didn't look into it more at the time, might see what I can find more on it this week. I seem to remember the delays in Canada, but that it was repaired and Canada just tried to excuse themselves of involvement by passing it on to Germany for onward return to Ru. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62408993 https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/81951/ and there was around July mention of force majeure https://www.oedigital.com/news/498129-nord-stream-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-on-some-gas-supplies-to-europe (E: Seems July when Canada sent turbine to Germany https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-sent-repaired-turbine-nord-stream-germany-kommersant-2022-07-18/)

[stone wadi]

I remember Germany getting started to initiate legal processes regarding failure to deliver gas through ns1

[eager moss]

whilst there was a lot of commentary at the time, and afterwards, about how the gas supply was being deliberately reduced in anticipation of the coming winter, the winter of 2022/23 turned out to be milder than expected. Nevertheless there was a significant increase in european gas prices. I suspect that there was some political motivation but I wonder about the logic of thinking one can impose sanctions on a country to detrimentally impact its economy and then complaining when the sanctioned country takes retaliatory action as a pre-emptive reminder of Europe’s dependence upon the export of their gas.

[eager moss]

i provided a link a couple of days ago to a document that provides some detailed imformation about the turbine issue; it’s a more reliable source than european or us media reports. The document addresses timeframes and offers commentary on technical and legal issues. As an engineer I find the comments on turbine/compressor arrangements interesting as I’ve thought for some time that there were genuine issues with the turbines serviceability. That’s not to say that there wasn’t also some political motivation in the curtailing of gas delivery in June/July.

[eager moss]

This link to a document on the recent Uniper case may be of interest (document is second one down the list).

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publication-topic/energy-comments/

[civic rapids]

Sorry forgot to reply to say thanks

Re the Newnew Polar Bear and the Balticconnector incident. Seems there is an update, admits "accident" due to stormy weather. https://www.is.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000010625392.html and archive of SCMP on it https://archive.ph/qoXNS

[vague meteor]

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-172.html

[vocal violet]

Here a summary in English: https://fixvx.com/deaidua/status/1823631109151711292

Despite the arrest warrant on this Volodymyr Z:

No links to the Ukrainian government or a Ukrainian intelligence service could be proven after almost two years of investigation.

[limber hinge]

Another link, rather bizarre story.

https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-explosions-germany-issues-arrest-warrant-report/a-69933920

More links

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-172.html

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2024-07/nordstream-anschlag-ermittlungen-festnahme/komplettansicht

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/politik/nordstream-anschlag-ukraine-haftbefehl-e796800/?reduced=true

[civic rapids]

WSJ covering it also now https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c . Archived https://archive.ph/8LKeL

[nimble gull]

I don’t know what to believe, but if this is true, then we also have to believe the reports that they initially tried to pull this off during/right after BALTOPS. Which I’m having trouble reading as anything other than trying to pull NATO into world war 3… I can see some allies who would be more than a little pissed.

[stone wadi]

I am fairly sure that arrest warrant was satire

[stone wadi]

Tweet have been deleted...

[raven charm]

It was a bit misleading. The prosecution is unable to use classified itelligence for an arrest warrant, that's why they have to start at the bottom, but a direct Ukranian involvement is very much suspected. It is also corroborated by the various intelligence sources in the media (mainly WSJ).

[quick fiber]

Reported by Tagesschau (linked above). Same publication reports that there is no known proof of suspect’s connection to UKR officials

[onyx spade]

https://kyivindependent.com/ex-intelligence-officer-released-on-bail-for-219-000/

[nimble gull]

Of course. There’s no way to think this was done without the planning/blessing of at least one intelligence service. But there will never be a paper trail or hard evidence of that. WSJ mentions them studying an “…older, elaborate plan to blow up the pipeline drafted by Ukrainian intelligence and Western experts…”

[nimble gull]

This should be pinned

[stone wadi]

that types of plans sounds like the kinds that are a dime to the dozen in any milityary that arent at war.
its a easy make work exercise that you can throw togheter some peaple and tell them to brainstorm and plan in minute details when you just want to get them out of your hair for a week

[nimble gull]

Sure but access to those plans are not for everyone. And besides, it's still pretty remarkable for Ukrainian intelligence to have plans to blow up essential infrastructure 1000 km away

[inner sandal]

Way back I read an article saying that when the war started Ukraine asked the UK for advice on possible types of maritime sabotage. There have been a few attacks, like blowing up the bridge, that may have been inspired by that.

I can no longer find the article but I'm wondering if the Nordstream plan emerged out of some brainstorming related to that.

[dense knoll]

Are the ‘Ukranian’ suspects from wsj still the same as the ones who fled to Russia ? https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Nord-Stream-Sprengung-Die-Spur-fuehrt-nach-Moskau-article24250566.html

[stone wadi]

also is it the same one that was from Crimea and continued to live there past 2014?

[civic rapids]

I think the WSJ covers that with this: In September 2022, the plotters rented a 50-foot leisure yacht called Andromeda in Germany’s Baltic port town of Rostock. The boat was leased with the help of a Polish travel agency that was set up by Ukrainian intelligence as a cover for financial transactions nearly a decade ago, according to Ukrainian officers and people familiar with the German investigation.

[civic rapids]

Has Feeria Lwowa been setup as the fake company, using names of known Ru supporting Ua citizens and hence being under a previous maiden name for 1 of them because Ua intel didn't have her new name? (The answer may be as simple as she hadn't updated the record since changing name ofc)

[dense knoll]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-diver-1.7296527

[raven charm]

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-sabotage-taucher-flucht-polen-ukraine-100.html

In any case, on July 6, the wanted man leaves [Poland]. At 6.20 a.m., Volodymyr S. crosses the border at Korczowa into his native Ukraine. As ZDF frontal and “Spiegel” found out, he is said to have used a vehicle with diplomatic license plates. The car is said to belong to the Ukrainian embassy in Warsaw.

[stone wadi]

said to belong to?
wouldent knowing the registration number on the diplomatic plates be a rather clear cut?
(though than again it could be false plates

[nimble gull]

Does Germany and Ukraine have extradition agreements? I can’t imagine this guy isn’t within the reach of Ukr authorities… so it’s a question of political will, on both sides. Can’t imagine anyone is particularly compelled to keep pulling on this string.

[stone wadi]

can you cross a border in a more noticeable way than in a car with diplomatic plates?
I have a hard time thinking of anything that would be more guaranteed to ensure that it was recorded in official logs.
you would be less noticable if you crossed the border on foot in full clown cloths and makeup

[brazen oxide]

I wonder if there is any links between the the announcement from Germany's government of reducing its help to Ukraine by half, and the heat coming up from the Nordstream investigation... It was almost concomitant. When the public realizes they suffer from inflation and cant heat their homes in winter , they are not gonna feel amused to know it is coming from Ukraine and might seriously challenge the german government...

[quick fiber]

Inflation and gas prices in Germany are not „coming from Ukraine“, although it is indeed a talking point among the pro-Russian political parties

[crystal fiber]

Wholesale energy prices in Germany have more or less come back down to pre-war levels. Between 2021-2023 Elspot average went from 96€/MWh -> 225€/MWh -> 95€/MWh (utility companies may continue marking up consumer prices for a bit longer to cover debts from 2022 though)

[clear lava]

The aid was slashed because the government has met constitutionally mandated spending limits

The recent news regarding nordstream anyways are just public disclosers, officials would have known even years ago

Nordstream was a criminal enterprise anyways, a strategic project done over the interests of the rest of Europe to facilitate Russia military aggression

[nimble gull]

This is becoming a common talking point to diminish the seriousness of the sabotage. It served Europe "well" for many years. Whether that was a strategic mistake is a valid discussion, but irrelevant here.

[clear lava]

The seriousness of Nordstream itself was diminished by being touted as merely a commerical project of no strategic implications.
It should be treated with about the same seriousness that other sabotages in Europe are.

[hybrid root]

Factchecks on some statements made by people saying " Andromeda scenario is impossible" here https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/category/nord-stream-sabotage/

[nimble gull]

What is conceivably on the same scale? We were lucky it was a mild winter. This could have been disastrous not just to heavy industry but people’s lives as well. Like I said, we can agree it was a bad decision to become dependable on Russia, but on the scale of infrastructure sabotage it is historically unique. Let’s not downplay it.

[clear lava]

Well thats what I meant, it was a criminal enterprise that could have had severe consequences for millions of people, beyond just the geopolitical dimension who's victims is incalculable right now.

But your point about the interruption of gas flows misses that it was Russia who halted flows via NS1, and Germany that formally refused to accept flows via NS2.

[hybrid root]

Does anybody know at what date the German television made the recording of German divers trying to dive of the Andromeda. They did not wanted to take the risk because of the weather and movements of the yacht.

[limber hinge]

I only read that one bit about a diver getting back into the boat. That is where I have some experience because I dive and live part time aboard a boat.

This argument ignores the very obvious facts that the actual dive would have been made in the open ocean with current weather conditions. We do not know the swell or wave conditions at the actual time but they were almost certainly worse than the near perfect conditions presented.

The swim platform does work well when calm, but in even very moderate conditions the platform, due to wave action, becomes a dangerous menace to retrieving divers. The boat raise and decends with the swell threatening to mash the divers head.

A truthful recounting of the situation would have discussed these “facts”.

[hybrid root]

There were certainly days with such wind conditions that there are hardly any waves. Working on an article showing the weather

[limber hinge]

And there were certainly a number of Russian ships in the area, a sub tender with a rescue sub, a couple of tugs and an escort.

Why is there no discussion of this? What has been done to prove they had no role in this event?

Just because something is “possible” does jot mean it is likely let alone probable.

What disturbs me here is the obvious misdirection away from other possible scenarios.

That miss-direction itself should be considered a clue.

[stone wadi]

Showing their opinions on the culprit much?
https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/2024/09/01/hoeveel-dagen-had-het-oekraiense-team-gelegenheid-om-te-duiken/

I wouldn't question that it can be done.
I question that it is realistic to do: at night, during adverse weather conditions, in the Baltic during the fall....

Some of that can be explained by it being a potential suicide mission...

https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/2024/09/01/nord-stream-zonder-ankerlijn-kunnen-duikers-naar-80-meter-diepte-duiken/

[stone wadi]

Especially as a rescue sub is basically built for that kind of work....

[stone wadi]

Add "at night" and "during the fall" to that and you have a really fun and dangurus combination 😁

[stone wadi]

And I bet they still did it during daylight

[hybrid root]

Ask the German public prosecutor

[eager moss]

I prepared these charts about a year ago. It’s based on wind and wave data i purchased from the german met office (DWD) and anemometer readings on Bornholm. I added the ‘known’ locations of the Andromeda.

[eager moss]

Agreed there could be further commentary, especially by ‘investigative journalists’, on quite a few aspects that have barely received any meaningful attention. In addition to the example you quote there is this media release which might be one such example - a lot of subsea activity with very capable vessels, equipment and personnel in the immediate area of the explosions. https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3060311/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-testing-new-technology/

[eager moss]

i think this might be what you were thinking of https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-diver-1.7296527 ?

[hybrid root]

That is the source, There is also a series of podcasts made by German media. But want to know the date the ARD chartered the Andromeda.

[limber hinge]

Niels Puck Anders has done a few reports on Russian hybrid warfare and why NATO is choosing to ignore it. He MAY have done one on NS bombings, or at least mentioned it in this context.

Basically his argument that the various fires and other incidents are perpetrated by Russians and their sympathizers in order to sow discord amongst NATO members and the best way to deal with it is to not rise to the bait, to ignore it. I suspect that is the case here.

I think it is a “fact” various countries have investigated the physical site, retrieved debris, and have evidence of the culprit they are not sharing.

[eager moss]

“I think it is a “fact” various countries have investigated the physical site, retrieved debris, and have evidence of the culprit they are not sharing.”
It’s undoubtedly true that all of the sites were visited immediately after they became safe and were not only inspected but cleared of as much physical evidence as was practicably possible to recover; it’s even rumoured that these inspections included the partial cutting of damaged sections of the ends of pipelines. Some of this material will have been available for forensic investigations, the results of which have not been publicly shared. The consequence of this clearing, which is often overlooked or ignored, is that all of the subsequent visits to the sites could only reveal the conditions at the sites after the work of the inspection teams was completed. The vision obtained by the various media organisations should be viewed in this contex.

It’s notable that the Swedish and Danish authorities refused the Gazprom request to join their inspection efforts such that Gazprom had to charter and mobilise their own vessel - which took time and delayed the Gazprom inspections.

It’s somewhat incongruous to think that the ‘culprit’ is somehow being protected when complicit media is being fed stories of Ukrainian responsibility, of arrest warrants being issued, and of individuals being allowed to avoid arrest in diplomatic cars ! Unless of course the culprit is not the country some might want it to be and the entire Ukraine / Andromeda story is just deflection and a cover story.

[eager moss]

”Basically his argument that the various fires and other incidents are perpetrated by Russians and their sympathizers in order to sow discord amongst NATO members and the best way to deal with it is to not rise to the bait, to ignore it. I suspect that is the case here.”

I’m trying to think of an incident of ‘sabotage’ that has occurred in ‘western european nato’ that is of a scale and/or consequence which is on a par with the Nordstream sabotage. What examples can you think of which have occurred in the last few years ?

[old root]

Maybe not "on par" but also quite famous sabotage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Vrbětice_ammunition_warehouse_explosions

[eager moss]

theres an interesting comment from the pm that it was not an attack on the country (in 2014) but on the supplies of an arms dealer - which I suggest doesn’t fit the scenario proposed that sabotage is being committed to sow discord amongst nato members ?

[old root]

Well, I'm not surprised that he said that https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/czechias-babis-faces-criticism-over-alleged-alignment-with-pro-russian-forces/

[eager moss]

Big bad russia again - the absence of any logic is astounding.
If the arms were destined for organisations or forces fighting against Russia why would it be wrong for Russia to try to interrupt the supply of arms ? Do we think a nato country would not do that ?
If the EU imposes sanctions on russia to damage it’s economy, why whinge when russia retailiates by reducing gas exports that EU industries need to operate ?
If nato employs sattelite tracking for polar orbiting sattelites that spy on Russia (on Svalbard), why whinge when russian trawlers damage the cable transmitting the data obtained ?

[stone wadi]

That last part is really incoherent but I guess that's the point

[eager moss]

If you’re referring to polar orbiting sattelites and didn’t understand what was written i can make it clear fo you.

[stone wadi]

yes and no
I don't see how the cable to Svalbard would have anything really do do with those unless somone thought it was a good idea to set up a stailite base station and neglect having alternatives ways to get data from it

[eager moss]

It would be surprising if data transfer was not possible by both cable and satellite for redundancy. But why would the routine data be transferred via dedicated geostationary satellites when the global comms network is built on fibre optic cables for good reasons (eg data transfer rates, reliability).

[stone wadi]

so their are actually a spy satilite uplink station on svalbard than

[eager moss]

maybe ask biden stoltenberg or putin 😂

[stone wadi]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Satellite_Station

The facility has seen a large increase in smaller customers after 2004, when the Svalbard Undersea Cable System started providing a fiber Internet connection. Concessions for downloading are only issued to civilian satellites, yet some data has been indirectly used by armed forces. There is a disagreement as to whether this constitutes a breach of the Svalbard Treaty.

Military restrictions: Article 9 prohibits naval bases and fortifications and also the use of Svalbard for war-like purposes. Norway interprets this provision as still permitting access to the territory by the Norwegian Armed Forces to exercise sovereignty and protect the environment. This largely encompasses visits by Norwegian military forces, particularly Norwegian Coast Guard vessels, to the territory. However, certain other signatory states, particularly Russia, dispute this interpretation. Notably, while Norway maintains that it has exclusive rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to the continental shelf around Svalbard, Russia rejects this position. Russia also objects to Norwegian or NATO military activities around Svalbard which, Russia claims, undermine the treaty’s military restrictions.

[eager moss]

i wouldn’t expect Wikipedia to be an authority on national intelligence services use of satellite facilities or their compliance with international law or treaties. . . . but it’s an interesting article that confirms the importance of the fibre optic cable.

[stone wadi]

you can't dispute that it give a good baseline of info

[eager moss]

ooops ! Deleted my post - I misunderstood what you meant.
Yes, the wiki article is interesting.

if we look at the issue of ‘intelligence gathering’ dispassionately it would be hard to conclude that a station with the capabilities of svalbard would not be a very important base for nato - regardless of what we are told to believe.

[limber hinge]

Military satellites aside Western countries business would be hurt more by the cable cut than Russian interests. Simply because Russia has less reliance on satellite comms.

And it can be viewed as a demonstration attack to show capability and willingness.

Similarly cutting Nordstream hurts NATO more than Russia and demonstrates Russias capability and willingness.

We know Russian assets have been conducting what appear to be under sea surveys around northern Europe for many years. Thus there is an implied threat of disruption.

Yes we have facilities to repair, but not at sufficient scale.

[stone wadi]

don't worry about it
no offense taken
honestly I can't even tell what post you deleted

[stone wadi]

Sure, but Norway are one of the few nations that I would expect to follow treties to the letter far above what many would think was reasonable

[eager moss]

the days when a country’s government could independently determine it’s compliance or otherwise with treaties and international law are long over, especially for those members of nato who play an important role in the geopolitical ambitions of the US. There are other examples of ground stations where activities are outside both the knowledge and rule of the country on which they are sited. Pine Gap in Australia is one such example; and maybe we think we know more about Pine Gap than we think we know about Svalbard.

Blinken said it out loud : “if you’re not at the table you’re on the table”.

[eager moss]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap#See_also

[exotic shale]

FYI. Nord Stream AG updated their claims document in their lawsuit against Lloyds&Arch. For the first time they reveal a "Dent" on Line B of Nord Stream 1, just about 200 meters from the explosion site on Lina A of Nord Stream 1. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8ox60hf105gobd1e8d1y4/CL-2024-000094-Re-Amended-Particulars-of-Claim-dated-16-September-2024.pdf?rlkey=c56qogrk0od08q3u4s78epd2g&dl=0

Nord Stream AG say they have not been able to determine the cause of "The Dent". It

is really a mystery. Is there anything else than explosives or anchor dragging that could have caused this? It if was anchor dragging, I suppose tracks would be visible on the seafloor, like there was by the Baltic Connector and the TransMed accident December 2008.

[eager moss]

a submarine or related naval vessel ? There are Baltops exercises in the area - Bornholm Deep - every year so it might not be as silly a suggestion as it first seems.
Alternatively, NS2 construction vessels. It would be a big anchor to cause such damage to a 48” cwc pipeline - which a construction vessel would have. A 150mm deep dent is quite significant.
It isn’t necessarily that there would be long lengths of anchor scars on the seabed if a construction related vessel inadvertently dropped it’s anchor and then pulled it along a bit as it quickly retrieved it.
Do we know where the dent is located relative to the pipeline centre-line ? Is the 800mm dent length centred above or below the pipeline centre ?

[exotic shale]

I have no other information than what is in the document I linked above. Would be interesting to go there and take a look.

[limber hinge]

Could it be another explosion site?

[exotic shale]

I think it could. I wonder how Lloyds will respond. Will they say as they did before, that all damage likely was done by a single actor an therefore it was a single event with a limited maximum payout? I guess in that case they would have to prove that it was an explosion event, and not an accident, because if it was deliberate and not an explosion it would require heavy equipment and could not just be a small op from a sailboat.

[civic rapids]

If it was caused by explosion, would that not be fairly apparent? Same with if the dent was caused by debris such as with one of the pipe sections that was blown away? Shame there isn't any image provided of the dent tbh. The description mentioning it is south side of the pipe may imply it was a lateral impact as opposed to something from the top? "Line 2 sustained damage in the form of a circumferential indentation at KP998.743 on the south side of the pipeline (the “Dent”). The Dent has a length of about 0.8m, a width of about 0.5m, a depth of about 0.15m and is estimated to penetrate the pipeline’s internal diameter by about 17%"

It doesn't mention if there was any movement of the pipeline due to whatever caused the dent though which I'd would require some amount of force surely? Is it possible to use the dimensions of the dent for comparison against the sizes of submersibles known or believed to be operating in the area to rule out or rule in that possibility? When I think about if this could be caused by the pipe shifting and bending due to the explosions I would assume there to be damage on the opposite side of the pipe in that case, whether it be stretching or tearing?

I'm not sure how the claimants can argue the destruction didn't have a common cause, would not a group of Ukrainian saboteurs planting explosives on the pipeline not be classed as common cause between the various explosions? If it's done by state actors as is the current belief, and the state involved is at war was that not excluded in the insurance policy too IIRC?

[eager moss]

Explosion is the default explanation which is being assumed; the question asked and which I was answering was “is there anything else . . .?”
Anchor dragging is probably unlikely because the size of vessel and anchor required to cause the damage would be very large and would leave scars on the seabed for some distance in the approach to the pipeline; but none are evident on the ss images. A dropped anchor however would be a possibility, which is why i mentioned it. Knowing where on the circumference the dent is located would be useful information.

[eager moss]

the Nordstream curse means that there is inevitably an inadequate amount of helpful information available in the public domain.
I take ‘south side’ to simply mean the side away from the other NS1 pipeline with no reference at to whether it’s the upper half or lower half of that side. This is quite important in understanding whether it was an explosive that caused the dent - based upon what we can see at the other sites.

[eager moss]

An anchor impact or other mechanical impact would not necessarily cause movement of the pipeline; it would depend upon a variety of factors. No pipeline movement is evident on the side scan image although it’s of poor resolution, mostly due to poor sea state conditions at the time (which is evident on the ss image).
If the damage was the result of the destruction of NS1A pipeline nearby, a dent could be caused by impact from a very large piece of the destroyed line (eg a pipe joint or two) which would be on the top half of the NS1B line (again, the importance of the dent location). Any such debris will have been removed by the Swedish/ANOther ‘inspection’ teams shortly after the explosions.
Since the pipeline doesn’t appear to have moved, the force from the pressure wave caused by the explosion on NS1A appears to have been insufficient to have caused damage to NS1B; which would not have been a dent on the south side anyway.

[exotic shale]

yes, the wind and waves picked up when we scanned the NS1S site making it impossible to keep a stable speed, so the towed "sonar fish" wobbled up and down. It's a pity we can't even see the joints as we could in the NS2AS scans which we made around noon the same day.

[raven charm]

New article from Der Spiegel: https://archive.ph/h1Mcc

They allegedly identified other Ukrainian perpetrators but are unwilling to disclose personal information. Zelensky is exonerated, but Zaluzhnyi's authorization is confirmed again. The perpetrators were civilians under the direct command of a Ukrainian officer. Chervinskyi seems to have been the main person responsible for the whole plan.

[nimble gull]

https://weltwoche.ch/daily/us-marine-soll-kurz-vor-nord-stream-zerstoerung-mit-abgeschaltetem-transponder-am-tatort-gewesen-sein-berichtet-daenische-zeitung/

Does anyone have the original reporting from danish Politiken?

https://politiken.dk/danmark/art10057566/De-første-dage-måtte-havnefogeden-på-Christiansø-»ikke-sige-en-dyt«.-Men-i-dag-kan-han-godt-afsløre-en-smule

[brazen oxide]

any possibility to access the text without subscription?

[nimble gull]

That’s what I’m trying. May sign up to get it if no one can share

[onyx spade]

Preview text:

For the first few days, the harbormaster on Christiansø "didn't have to say a word". But today he can reveal a bit
In September 2022, the explosions of the Nord Stream gas pipelines caused enormous international attention. At first, everyone believed that Russia must be behind the sabotage. Now Germany is looking for a Ukrainian diving group on a yacht, while Denmark and Sweden have dropped the investigation. So what do we know about the case, which they soon forget on Christiansø?
Denmark 26 Sep 2024 at 08.55

Søren Thiim Andersen had a surprise last summer, a few months after the world's press had gone home with an unfinished business. The journalists were hunting for clues to the 15-metre-long 'Andromeda', named after a princess in Greek mythology. So when the registered yacht sailed into the harbor, Christiansø's administrator could hardly believe his eyes.
Since the end of 2022, 'Andromeda' has been the German authorities' best bet on where the sabotage action against the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipes originated exactly two years ago. Recently, an arrest warrant was issued against a 44-year-old Ukrainian diver who was allegedly on the sailing ship when it passed Christiansø in the days around the time of the crime.

Last summer, however, the crew turned out not to be frogmen, but German journalists from the TV channel ZDF, who had rented the very same 'Andromeda' to reconstruct the boat's sailing route between September 6 and 23, 2022, from the German ports of Rostock and Wiek, to Christiansø, on to Swedish Sandhamn, Kolobrzeg in Poland and back to Germany.
“You have no idea what conspiracy theories I have been presented with; that it was Russians, Americans, Chinese, Ukrainians or other stakeholders who were behind the Nord Stream sabotage. I've been shown footage of possible perpetrators, so when 'Andromeda' docked here on Christiansø, I thought that now it's going to be completely crazy", explains Søren Thiim Andersen.

[nimble gull]

Gift link to the above, hope it works: https://politiken.dk/del/ouuvDoAEvjbA

One of the reporters is perhaps the most well known contemporary authors on things related to intelligence in Denmark.

This is something... Rough translation:

"In the first days, the harbor master, according to his own statement, "wasn't allowed to say say a word". But today, John Anker Nielsen can reveal that four or five days before the Nord Stream explosions, he was out with the rescue service on Christiansø because there were some ships with their radios switched off. They turned out to be American naval vessels, and as the rescue service approached, they were told by the Naval Command to turn back."

Have we seen anything else to that effect previously?

[civic rapids]

Púca did some amazing work with the ais data way back. There had been several ships around this time that appeared to be searching that did have their ais on at least for periods. Around this tweet. Also Oliver Alexander and Brian Whitaker also had some good articles with names of vessels identified etc across their medium/substacks #1072947857654554624 message

https://medium.com/@brian-whit/new-details-of-russian-naval-activity-near-nord-stream-explosion-sites-ee9692635bed

Regarding US naval ships having ais off though referring to USS Paul Ignatius (DDG 117) here on 8th October using invalid MMSI of Elona 999999999 inspecting the sites https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/despite-deferring-to-the-european

It's possible half the Baltic sea countries, Ru and the US all had their navies in the area for the same reason, looking for suspect saboteur sabotage

[nimble gull]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's AFTER the attacks though? The article mentions "some" US Navy vessels 4-5 days before the attacks

[brazen oxide]

Brilliant.. Thanks a lot. It worked

[civic rapids]

This is correct. Sorry I mainly brought that specific article up as there is potential issue between the harbour master statement of his reason to sail out being radios off (if he is meaning transponders here, not voice radios) being the reason he sailed out to a military naval vessel (US in this instance) and was told to go away. As best as I could find, it isn't mandatory for military vessels to have their AIS on. There were at least Swedish, German and Ru naval ships in the area 4-5 days before the blast also so fair chance US ship was there (Not sure if I'd seen mention in an article if the DDG 117 was there too now?)

[exotic shale]

WSJ who supposedly interviewed insiders in Ukraine, says "the rest of the mines" were placed after they sailed "North" after Sept 19. How far north I wonder. There's just one bomb we know about at the southern site and there was plenty of time in excellent weather to visit the Northern sites. Coincidentally, that's when the US warships were lingering in that area.

[eager moss]

it appears that the tide may be turning https://x.com/ninabyzantina/status/1852831952241578219?s=61

Nina 🐙 Byzantina (@NinaByzantina) on X

German tabloid BILD (of all mainstream sources!) now discredits the quasi-official and convenient theory that it was Ukraine 🇺🇦 that carried out the Nord Stream 🇷🇺 🇩🇪 sabotage. Considering its massive negative impact on German economy, it’s unsurprising that some are dissatisfied

Twitter · Nov 2, 2024, 9:55 PM

a direct link to the article is in the Xitter thread

[exotic shale]

What's going on here, I guess, is that powerful interests in Germany are quite content with platforming a variety of theories, an in particular sow some doubt of the sailboat theory to prevent it from becoming so established that the politicians have to act on it.

[eager moss]

that’s possible of course, along with a few other plausible but speculative explanations. What I find most interesting is that Bild is the first german MSM to break ranks with the US/EU approved raindance on Nordstream - unless it’s a pivot by ‘government agencies’ that’s now being fed to the media.

[brazen oxide]

Is Bild seen as a credible media outlet? I always thought they leaned more toward sensationalism and bias. Do we know if other media have reported the same information?

[hybrid root]

No, Bild is not very reliable. The story of the ' expert' has many errors. Bild should have investigated the statements of this expert first.

[eager moss]

An observation regarding the Bild story - the archeologist’s views on the practicalities of performing the work from a 15 metre yacht are not a minority view amongst people with real offshore diving work experience, not just yachting or hobby scuba experience, although he overestimates the vessel spread required for the work (based upon my offshore construction experience).
There was a report from CBC/ARD a few months ago which is relevant
https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-diver-1.7296527

i was obviously wrong about Bild being the first German outlet to question the Andromeda story’s validity.

[hybrid root]

The usage of the Andromeda as a diving platform depends on the weather. With waves less then 1 meters high the sundeck at the back of the yacht can be used to enter and leave the yacht. The story of Sven Thomas is the first one with a lot of details. Some are simply wrong like the weight of the explosives.

[hybrid root]

Expert quoted by the German Bild is completely wrong with his analysis of NordStream sabotage https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/2024/11/06/expert-quoted-by-the-german-bild-is-completely-wrong-with-his-analysis-of-nordstream-sabotage/

[eager moss]

do you know who wrote the wordpress essay ?
Did you read the CBC-ARD article ?

[eager moss]

the ability to dive from a yacht does depend upon the weather - both sea state and wind - and it is necessary to not only enter the water but also to exit which is the more challenging task. It’s also not the wave height that is the only characteristic of the waves that is important - the wave period is also very important; swell waves of up to 1 metre with periods of 12-14 seconds would be much easier in which to dive off a yacht than sea waves of the same height but with wave periods of 4-6 seconds. If you want to see what the wave conditions were at the time refer to the charts I posted for you a few weeks ago.

[hybrid root]

Do you know the exact date , windspeed and wave height of the day the German journalists chartered the Andromeda?

[eager moss]

i agree that the quoted mass of explosive is excessive - there have been a very wide range of estimated mass from numerous ‘experts’ quoted in the last 2 years. There is also uncertainty over whether a shaped charge was used with conflicting expert opinions expressed on that issue also - which affects how the charge would be deployed off a yacht and what is required to attach the explosive to the pipeline field joint.
However, whether the mass of explosive at each site was 50kg or 20kg the issue of deploying such a mass from an unanchored yacht in 80 metres water depth to be in close proximity to the pipeline on the seabed (where there is virtually zero visibility) remains a significant challenge from a yacht. People with little or no experience of working offshore tend to focus on the ability to dive rather than the ability to work off an unanchored yacht.

[hybrid root]

Using a strong light there is enough light to place explosives. Do not see any issue here.

[eager moss]

you’ve asked that question before. I contacted the journalist but didn’t receive a reply. It’s worth noting that the divers employed on that exercise are professional divers that work on the subsea infrastructure in the Baltic.

[eager moss]

A light doesn’t assist when the issue of almost zero visibility is the result of sediment transportation - sorry but that suggestion of using a strong light tells me that you have little if any experience of diving in the poor conditions that prevail near the seabed in the Baltic. Check out some of the videos that were published by media companies last year of their ‘expeditions’ to the sites - they clearly show the ssediment transportation which causes the poor visibility.
It’s also worth noting that the issue of poor visibility is not for placing and securing the explosives on the pipeline field joint but it dictates that the deployment of the explosives must be to very close to the pipelines on the seabed.

[hybrid root]

The answer is relevant. It is not that the Andromeda is not suited for diving because of the experience the ARD hired divers had. It all depends on the weather that day.

[hybrid root]

I have seen the videos many times. The visibility is enough to place explosives on a pipeline. It is not that the divers needed to read a book down there

[eager moss]

that’s correct but do you seriously think that a journalist would venture out into the Baltic on the Andromeda in conditions that were much worst than those required to be able to dive from the yacht ?

[hybrid root]

I have seen an enourmous amount of stupid and silly behaviour by journalists.

[eager moss]

as I just wrote, the visibility is not for placing and securing the explosive onto the pipeline, it’s for deploying the explosive onto the seabed in close proximity to the pipelines for the divers to do their work.
I have to ask - do you have any experience at all of offshore work and do you have any experience of anything other than recreational diving ?

[hybrid root]

I did my PADI and that is it. But I have an issue with suggesting that when you are not a diver somebody does not know enough.

[hybrid root]

That a diver hired by a TV crew does not want to take any risk is logical. An Ukraine diver who is willing to take risks so the enemy Russia is hit hard is something else.

[eager moss]

a point i tried to politely make earlier is that there is an enormous difference between recreational diving and the challenges of working under water.
I was a recreational diver, i also completed a course at Fort Bovisand which was a trimmed version of the training professional divers used to have to complete (a 6-week course) before they could be employed in the North Sea. This was because my first employer thought i should understand how difficult it is for divers to conduct work tasks under water.
But i wasn’t a professional diver - i have spent over 3 decades as an engineer in the design and construction of subsea pipelines, structures etc. So when I say there is an enormous difference it is from experience.

[hybrid root]

I believe anyone understands it was not a walk in the park to place those explosives. Many divers stated in media it was possible. Mr Thomas in Bild says the southern explosion could have been done by divers. It basically depends on the weather, the number of divers on board and if the diver went alone in pair. There were a couple of days with good weather. The 2000kg explosives is a nonsense story.

[eager moss]

this debate is not about whether it’s possible for divers to have performed the work nor is it about the mass of explosives used which i addressed earlier. It’s not even about the details contained in the Bild story, some of which i’ve also said are unrealistic.
It’s about the fact that the story pushed about the Andromeda has always been suspect when details of weather conditions (waves and wind), only two divers on board, and the very short window available right at the very end of the period are all considered; especially when combined with a realistic appreciation of what is required to perform the work offshore and not just dive.
The significance of the Bild story is not the details presented but that these issues are beginning to emerge in the media as other circumstances surrounding the sabotage are emerging and the veracity of the Andromeda story is challenged.

[quick fiber]

For those without access to Twitter, why not post the link to original reporting instead of citing a pro-Russian account?

[eager moss]

because the Xitter user had summarised the article in english - and the direct link to the German language article (ie original reporting) was also included anyway.
Do you have any corrections of the english language summary to offer ?

[quick fiber]

You can’t see the responses to the tweet unless you are logged in

[eager moss]

okay, here is a link for anyone who can’t log in to Xitter
https://www.bild.de/politik/nord-stream-explosionen-die-andromeda-theorie-kann-nicht-stimmen-6725f4c77cd3a5795d03be16

[hybrid root]

Many mistakes by this expert. A factcheck on the Bild article https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/2024/11/06/expert-quoted-by-the-german-bild-is-completely-wrong-with-his-analysis-of-nordstream-sabotage/

[eager moss]

one of the interesting aspects of the Andromeda story is that it is being pushed by western governments and their agencies and has been promoted by western media since it first emerged, but it is absolving Russia of involvement in the sabotage by implicating a ‘rogue’ Ukrainian group. This is the case regardless of whether the story is true or not.

As I wrote earlier, there are now a number of stories emerging which are casting doubt on the veracity of the Andromeda story; the feasibility of conducting the operation from the yacht alone has always been suspect to those with an understanding of working offshore (rather than just recreational diving). However, western media has mostly been silent on this issue and such reservations are only recently being published as other revelations are emerging.

The details in the Bild report reflect the fact that the ‘expert’ is an archaeologist whose experience is in the meticulous excavation and recording of subsea sites where the vessels, equipment and methods he describes might be necessary. Criticism of these details doesn’t change the fact that the veracity of the Andromeda story has always been suspect and is now being openly challenged. Which is a welcome and long overdue development.

This is a chart I produced a year ago (from data I purchased from DWD) and based on the information on the Andromeda story available at that time. I haven’t revised it to add the presence of US navy vessels during the period after the Kolobrzeg visit and prior to the Andromeda being returned (Andromeda reportedly seen in Wiek on 22nd).

[junior moat]

the problem I have with framing it as a "story" is that we can be certain the Andromeda actually made that trip, and it 100% wasn't some holiday trip. So even if the trip was done as a sort of distraction, it still happened and it's 100% related to the explosions.

[eager moss]

Agreed that the Andromeda made the trip, based on reported sightings and boat hire, and that it is very likely to be related to the sabotage in some way. But that is quite different to uncritically accepting that it’s a factual account of how the sabotage was perpetrated solely by persons on one yacht who belonged to a rogue band of individuals.

[limber hinge]

Something that can occur in these kinds of discussions is that there is argument about the possibility of some factoid being possible. Something may be possible but of low probability. Yet once a person proves something is possible it does not mean that it is likely. So that it is possible to do the dive from Andromeda does not mean it occurred. Or that it is likely, simply possible.

It is possible they would get a good weather window, but for planning purposes was it likely?

Was it possible this crew could transport explosives across borders, exposing themselves to discovery? Maybe, but from a planning perspective it must have been seen as risky.

Also they took a charter at the very end of the season, a unusual charter for sure. Why then when such a charter was sure to draw attention?

When you look at the while list of possibilities, and sum the chance of poor consequences this starts to look like a very, very poorly run operation. Very likely to fail.

Unless the intent was to provide a distraction.

[junior moat]

ok now it gets interesting 👀
https://bsky.app/profile/drfranksauer.bsky.social/post/3laxweoz64s2d

[tidal knoll]

Unlocked: https://archive.ph/8HSKK

[junior moat]

unfortunately it's not so easy to run archive pages directly through translator ... the article basically suggests after talking to him that Roman Chervinsky doesn't even really deny being involved in the operation

[eager moss]

It seems to be a puff piece on Chervinsky with which he seems to have been happy to participate. Next to nothing on Nordtream sabotage other than a claim that the ‘operation went well’ - no new information which might provide some credibility. It would appear to be a missed opportunity ?

[eager moss]

”At the beginning of the conversation with the F.A.Z., Tschervinskyj had said that he did not want to comment on the explosion of the gas pipeline. But then he does it. He says nothing about the details of the operation. But he makes no secret of the fact that he considers the so far unexplained sabotage action a good thing: "I think the result of this operation is positive." The explosion was good for relations between Germany and Ukraine, but bad for Russia.”

i suspect this translation 👇could be improved
”The Nord Stream Bust Commando is also said to have been a kind of public-private partnership between secret services and patriotic civilian diving professionals.”

[exotic shale]

this is a very good chart, Can I publish it if I refer to you?

[eager moss]

yes of course

[limber hinge]

SEVA,

Just reviewing your chart, thanks for the good work.

It may be a bit more useful if you were to indicate days both favorable to diving (1.5M swell or less?) AND when Andromeda was available, that is not in port.

Perhaps an additional background shading, or another horizontal bar of a different color. That would make the cart more user friendly, easier to interpret.

[eager moss]

I’ve tried to only show known information on the chart - wave data from DWD, reported sightings, and presence of Minerva Julie. A number of assumptions would have to be made to identify the coincidence of suitable conditions for diving and the Andromeda not being in port or transiting to/from port or between sites - and there’s a lot we don’t know about the movement of the yacht between sightings. For these reasons i thought it best to let others use the data if they so chose and to make their own assumptions to draw conclusions.

[limber hinge]

Fair enough, thanks for the explanation.

[exotic shale]

Thanks!

[civic rapids]

Would it be worth adding jn the presence of the known Ru vessels being in the area for 4days before the explosions?

[eager moss]

can you provide details of the position of the vessels, dates for positions and any information on the vessels ? Maybe something like the attached image for the Minerva Julie if possible.
If anyone has similar information for the US navy vessels that were in the general area I can add that at the same time.

[raven charm]

New, and quite long article from Der Spiegel.
https://archive.is/DQiDx

A lot of new info that I didn't see before, very detailed. Covers perpetrators, planning, training and execution.

[exotic shale]

They say they made pipe bombs out of dive bottles. Then placed them on a silicon cushion on the pipe. They also mention all six explosions.

I actually have sonar footage of the damage from Bomb 6. Bomb 5 is right next to NS1AS but in the B-line, 95 meters from the successful bomb. So there is damage from 3 bombs which did not displace the pipeline. In all three cases, the explosions were to the side of the pipeline.

[civic rapids]

I don't think published to that extent of detail, definitely not seen enough to produce map like with the Minerva Julie. I'll find again tonight as I think it was mostly statements and confirmations of the names of Ru ships in the area and that they were there in the 4days prior to the explosions- Something that had been looked at in here as well way back, the 2 Ru tugs with at 1 leaving it's AIS on until ~40km of the blast sites, Ru submarine support ship (with minisub) and 1 of 2 naval subs that didn't return to port, FOI request to some of the Baltic countries that resulted in confirmation of photo's being taken of the Ru ships and some of said photo's publicly being published in the last few months which I'm certain were the same ones Oliver Alexander had been looking into a bit back then.

[eager moss]

yes, I wasn’t expecting the level of detail that we had for the MJ but enough factual data on location and dates rather than assumptions.
I recall the vessel movements identified by Oliver A but didn’t include them because there seemed to be no data positively locating them near the sabotage sites. If this is wrong then I’d be happy to see the data.

[eager moss]

I’ve revised the chart to reflect the locations and times when the Andromeda was not at sea as reported in the Der Spiegel report of 20th November.

this is the ‘reference’ from the Der Spiegel report

[eager moss]

If we take the information in the report as to when the yacht is in port, we can see that the days the Andromeda was at sea was 5 days before the Kolobrzeig visit and 2 days after; a total of 7 days. This corresponds well with the narrative in the Spiegel report regarding storms causing the yacht to be in port and larger waves in the days afterwards.
Except for the number of days required to place the six explosive canisters if there was a maximum of one dive each day and some dives were unsuccessful.
This translation into English 👇 may not be the best so corrections are welcome.

[limber hinge]

Seva,
Thanks.

[junior moat]

some more details from investigators (according to documents available to Spiegel)
https://bsky.app/profile/fschmid.bsky.social/post/3lbmivz5oek2c

Fidelius Schmid (@fschmid.bsky.social)

Den aktuellen Stand der Ermittler von Bundesanwaltschaft, Bundespolizei und BKA haben wir hier nachgezeichnet www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

Bluesky · Nov 23, 2024, 12:34 PM

[inner sandal]

Finnish coast guards boarded and took control of an oil tanker travelling from Russia, on suspicion it had sabotaged an undersea power cable and three internet lines connecting Finland and Estonia. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/26/europe/finland-sea-power-cable-outage-intl/index.html

[limber hinge]

Video by ( NOT - Neils Puck Anders). ANDERS PUCK NIELSEN on Russian hybrid warfare.

https://youtu.be/Yabwyb14-BQ?si=kZRrY0hUAyjKfJpE

[eager moss]

not the primary purpose of this forum I know, but three excellent scientific papers have been published in the last week about the methane emissions from the Nordstream pipeline explosions.
One or more may be of interest to some.
This is a link to one of the papers; links to the other two can be found in this paper..
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08396-8

[nimble gull]

Not NS per se, but since the cable breaks have been discussed at length here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/19/russia-baltic-undersea-cables-accidents-sabotage/
(https://archive.vn/7JcKG)

[gaunt sun]

https://fxtwitter.com/auonsson/status/1881129833738203390

[spare wigeon]

The Washington Post article mentioned and the bluesky poster are referring to the November and December 2024 subsea cable incidents.

Regular current discussion of subsea incidents can be found in #maritime

[mossy star]

!!! Joshua Yaffa met with/interviewed Chervinsky
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/03/03/the-adventures-of-a-ukrainian-intelligence-officer

[mossy star]

tl;dr he did it

[pure vine]

https://archive.is/AfqZl archive link

[old root]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-ally-pushing-us-russia-085357645.html

[limber hinge]

This just popped up

https://www.wired.com/story/nord-steam-explosions-mystery-osint/

[tired prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHsONupIdlo

[ionic flame]

https://www.generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2025/Pressemitteilung-vom-21-08-2025.html?nn=478184

[tidal knoll]

Arrest in connection with the alleged sabotage of the "Nord Stream" gas pipelines
Year of issue: 2025
Date: August 21, 2025

In the night leading up to August 21, 2025, based on a European arrest warrant issued by the investigating judge of the Federal Court of Justice on August 18, 2025, the Federal Prosecutor's Office had

the Ukrainian national Serhii K.

arrested in the province of Rimini (Italy) by officers from the Carabinieri station in Misano Adriatico in close cooperation with the Service for International Police Cooperation.

The accused is strongly suspected of jointly causing an explosion (Section 308 (1) of the German Criminal Code), unconstitutional sabotage (Section 88 (1) No. 3 of the German Criminal Code), and the destruction of buildings (Section 305 (1) of the German Criminal Code).

The arrest warrant essentially charges him with the following:

Serhii K. was part of a group of individuals who placed explosives on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines near the island of Bornholm in September 2022. The accused was presumably one of the coordinators of the operation. He and his accomplices used a sailing yacht departing from Rostock for transport. The yacht had previously been rented from a German company through intermediaries using forged identification documents. The bombs detonated on September 26, 2022. Both pipelines were severely damaged by the explosions.

The accused will be brought before the investigating judge of the Federal Court of Justice after being extradited from Italy.

Translation of the above press release (machine, with some clean-up from me.)

[mossy star]

The Times is reporting it's Serhii Kuznetzov https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/nord-stream-pipeline-ukraine-suspect-italy-hp6qrg8jr

[tidal knoll]

Huh. When I look it just says Serhii K.

[old root]

I also see the full name:

[tidal knoll]

I think it was updated and I had an older version

[ionic flame]

https://www.quotidiano.net/esteri/ucraino-arrestato-a-rimini-fece-4e762f4d

https://www.affaritaliani.it/amp/esteri/chi-e-serhii-kuznietsov-il-regista-del-sabotaggio-di-nord-stream-operazione-da-film-per-bloccare-il-gas-russo-981879.html

https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/in-edicola/articoli/2025/08/22/nord-stream-arrestato-un-ucraino-volevano-tagliare-il-gas-a-berlino/8101363/

"Ipotesi che sembrano avvalorate dall’arresto avvenuto a Rimini. Difeso d’ufficio dall’avvocata Ilaria Perruzza del foro di Rimini, il 49enne comparirà oggi davanti alla Corte d’Appello di Bologna per l’udienza di convalida dell’arresto e per la valutazione dell’estradizione in Germania. Non parla italiano ma inglese fluente, e sarà quindi affiancato da un interprete. Nel frattempo, smartphone e computer sequestrati al momento del fermo verranno analizzati dagli investigatori per ricostruire eventuali contatti e legami."

[brazen oxide]

apparently cant dodge the paywall...

[tired prawn]

Photos from the arrest of Serhii Kuznetsov. 🔱
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukrainian-man-suspected-causing-nord-172140771.html

[rustic bay]

Hi, please send a message to the user @somber surge with the link that you want to share. If the team approves, you can post it in #show-your-work and crosspost to this channel.

[ionic flame]

Nah. Never mind. Lots of stories coming out in Germany right now like this: https://www.zeit.de/2025/37/anschlag-nord-stream-pipelines-aufklaerung-festnahme-ukraine/komplettansicht

[velvet rain]

Lawyers for suspect Nord Stream saboteur Serhii K. argued at his extradition hearing that he was a soldier "following orders" during the September 26, 2022 incident and thus the "military nature of the alleged acts entails functional immunity."
https://p.dw.com/p/50Yl5

[tidal knoll]

Second suspect arrested: https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/polska/news-wysadzenie-nord-stream-podejrzany-przez-niemcow-ukrainiec-za,nId,8025881

Volodymyr Z., a Ukrainian suspected by Germany of involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline bombing, has been detained in Poland, RMF FM reporter Krzysztof Zasada has learned. The man was wanted under a European Arrest Warrant issued by a German court.

[junior moat]

a lot of names of potentially involved diving instructors in this article https://www.offshore-mag.com/special-reports/news/55313211/german-investigators-identify-persons-suspected-in-nord-stream-explosions

[tired prawn]

https://kyivindependent.com/italian-supreme-court-overturns-extradition-of-ukrainian-in-nord-stream-sabotage-case/

[tidal knoll]

Hi, I’ve removed your comments. Please do not encourage people to speculate on the outcome of trials.

[exotic shale]

Oh sorry, I had no idea this was a no no over here. I think of it as a tool for discovery. I honestly have no idea of how these extradition processes go, so a prediction market will at least show how confident the respective sides are. What exactly is the problem with "speculating on the outcome of trials"?

[tidal knoll]

You've ben away for a while, so maybe you forgot, but we have a #faq channel. There you can find the following:

6. The mods are saying “no speculation”. What’s the detailed explanation?
“Speculation” on a server dedicated to open-source research includes things that cannot be known through open-source methods. If you have to talk to a witness, consult an expert, or make an educated guess, that’s speculation.
This is in addition to things like reading “body language”, commenting on the way any person reacts to a traumatic experience, examining handwriting, commenting on the state of mind of a person (eg, “they’re acting like [diagnosis]), or your own feelings (“this isn’t adding up!”).
People come to our server to see the latest reliable information, and the above discussion points should be kept to the rest of the Internet. We are absolutely fine with having very little to report as we wait for new facts to surface.

[exotic shale]

I think that's a good rule which likely improves the quality of most conversations. If you review my posts and articles I think you'll find they are purely about known facts. That's also what journalists and documentary filmmakers tell me when they do productions with me. When people write books about Nord Stream they talk to me to get the facts right. That' swhat they tell me anyways. My idea to start prediction markets for the extradition processes was in the same spirit. I can't think of a better way to assess the perception of power of the European judiciary vs the political power opposing the process. I'm told all evidence collected by the German investigation will be made public if a trial takes place. I have no idea if it will happen and I'm not speculating here. But for the sake of discovery I want it to happen, and I want to know what the obstacles to discovery are. I thought other researchers would think likewise.

[tidal knoll]

You may continue to research the facts of the case, however what has not happened yet can not be counted as a fact and any "prediction/betting" on it would be speculation. Fortunately this server is only a tiny part of the internet, so there are plenty of spaces where you can speculate.

[exotic shale]

Ok, fine.

[amber ember]

Second suspect won't be extradited, he also is no longer detained https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-poland-blocks-extradition-of-suspect-to-germany/a-74395861