Nord Stream Pipeline

[velvet rain]

Let's see if he doubles down on a specific version of the story.

Doubling down on Hersh

While complaning about absurd narratives. That's rich.

[strange bane]

"Protected with the latest technology"

[velvet rain]

Cyber concrete

[strange bane]

I suppose if we are living in the Middle Ages, concrete is advanced tech.

Ecuador.

[tidal knoll]

It says so in fairly large letters, yes. 😛

[strange bane]

Some of us are old and blind Subtle

FRANCE!

[velvet rain]

@strange bane who's speaking now, I can't read the name sign 👴

[strange bane]

g h a n a

https://twitter.com/einfachmalso/status/1678852841920659458

Benno Schwinghammer (@einfachmalso)

Journalist invited by Russia to brief the United Nations Security Council on Nordstream I & II sabotage gets harsh criticism by @EliotHiggins from @bellingcat, who called Brodsky's speech a "shotgun in the mouth of your credibility" before the meeting.

Twitter · Jul 11, 2023, 7:44 PM

[storm wren]

I thnk my prediction panned out

[strange bane]

Ya, for someone who said:

If you believe any part of what I will be saying isn´t soley [sic] based on facts and evidence, please feel free to criticize my statement.

He didn't provide any facts and evidence.

[velvet rain]

Did the Russian Representative leave?

[strange bane]

Yea, Nebenzya and Polyanskiy left.

[velvet rain]

Wow

Note: Nord Stream AG is/was headquarted in Switzerland

[strange bane]

Albania has no chill.

[velvet rain]

He loves nothing more than absolutely destroying the Russian narrative.

[strange bane]

Albania is not sponsored by Apple.

[tidal knoll]

Representative for Albania is so over this Russian nonsense.

[strange bane]

🫣 Srebrenica.

[velvet rain]

He got a lot of practice with the anti-Slavic bioweapon mosquito stuff last year.

When Russia tried to push the Ukrainian biolabs narrative in the Security Council.

[strange bane]

China!

[velvet rain]

Oh no…

[vocal violet]

Don't steal my joke 😛

[strange bane]

Russia asks for the floor again.

To ask a question of the US, and they just stopped the meeting, lol.

Well that was an entirely pointless waste of time, although useful to see Brodsky's ties.

[inner sandal]

Does anyone have a link to the UN video?

[strange bane]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfAa1GiNdgM

Go back about 1:25:00

[storm wren]

https://twitter.com/JeffreyBrodsky5/status/1678874736456073218

Jeffrey Brodsky (@JeffreyBrodsky5)

@EliotHiggins Of course, I wasn´t told not to. I appeared b4 the UNSC under 1 condition: that I could say anything I wished & I did so today. If you weren´t able to catch my remarks, I´ll share them soon & if there´s anything in them that isn´t verifiable fact, I´ll accept any criticism.

Twitter · Jul 11, 2023, 9:11 PM

This reminds me of that Chomsky video with Andrew Marr "I’m sure you believe everything you say. But what I’m saying is if you believed something different you wouldn’t be sitting where you’re sitting.”"

[strange bane]

https://twitter.com/realcarrickryan/status/1678874223346089985

Carrick Ryan (@realCarrickRyan)

How does a "journalist" with 276 followers, no expertise, and no major publications, get invited to brief the UN Security Council?

Twitter · Jul 11, 2023, 9:09 PM

[tired monolith]

not very hard, just have to convince Russias low bar of being a western born person who has the story that fits their narrative the best 😉

[eager moss]

The statement has now been published https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffreyabrodsky/p/my-full-remarks-before-the-united?r=1x958m&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[upper dew]

This final paragraph...

"We appeared cuz the Russian deputy asked us to, but we're not doing it to help him."

[storm wren]

I asked him on Twitter yesterday if he knew about Dmitry Polyanskiy spreading disinformation on behalf of the Russian government for years, and he didn't give a straight answer to that.

[inner sandal]

This is an incredibly naive view of the Security Council's capabilities.

[upper dew]

I think it's pretty clear tbh...

[velvet rain]

Link to the full exchange for context:
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1679241886987345920

Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins)

@JeffreyBrodsky5 @ASpinOfTheWheel @partydamo @Dpol_un @TheGreeneBJ You might want to look at some of the things he's said about MH17 or chemical attacks in Syria, and think whether you'd want to accept any more invitations from someone who can lie like that in the future.

Twitter · Jul 12, 2023, 9:30 PM

[raw nexus]

Wow. Missed that totally.

[upper dew]

Prettx thorough annihilation by Eliot tbh 😂

Personal highlight

"I would kindly ask that you refrain from judgment until you hear what I will be saying as someone who represents no government or organization."

Except the issue is that what he says doesn't matter...

[little zinc]

republished by arte: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaxgcJTVMR0

[little zinc]

@shut aspen will there be an english release?

[stone wadi]

😦

[tired monolith]

thats the tax on the german language voice over - Germany only geoblock 😉

[raw nexus]

Vpn?

[stone wadi]

Don't understand too much German anyway, Danish is just really anoying to decipher
but then again:
Swedish
https://www.svtplay.se/uppdrag-granskning-skuggkriget
Norwegian
https://tv.nrk.no/serie/brennpunkt-skyggekrigen
Swedish but in Finland
https://arenan.yle.fi/1-63835861
Finish in Finland 😄
https://areena.yle.fi/1-63835861
The last two are only avalible to Finns in Finland or living in the EU

The SVT and NRK are available worldwide

Danish (only Danish residents)
https://www.dr.dk/drtv/serie/skyggekrigen_382298

none of the ones I have been able to check have english subtitles (yet)

[tired monolith]

yep, have to use chrome autotranslate or something similar for subs - weird it hasnt been properly english subbed tbh

guess bbc would be the most natural candidate

[tidal knoll]

I'd say Dutch on NPOstart.nl but the first two are already behind a paywall now.

[raw nexus]

I have another link
https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/putins-schattenkrieg/putins-schattenkrieg-erster-teil-100.html

[stone wadi]

yeah
whoever made the subtitles for the SVT verison could likely have made a English transcrip in their sleep

[tired monolith]

I guess these decisions is a mix of having a core audience and understanding that it has interest in terms of selling it to other places so prob dont want to ruin that potential, perhaps

because as you say it wouldnt be super hard or expensive to at least have it english subbed (I dunno anything about how its actually done by them, but in practical terms of what you can do via for examples whisper and then manually adjust/correct it after)

[stone wadi]

They do a fair amount of live subtitling so likely have peaple they have on contract for whenever they need stuff subtitled
and likely atleast a few peaple hired full time

[tired monolith]

yeah would assume so, theres a lot of sloppy subtitling stuff these days though because its cheaper to automate some crap or to pay people who arent great at it a lower price - but these are publicly funded so probably more serious about it

[stone wadi]

Given that they subtitles anything that that they broadcast
everything not in Swedish to Swedish and Swedish subtitles for the hearing simpered

[tired monolith]

yep domestically the subs are usually great

[stone wadi]

havent watched any TV in years but it was nice growing up
and than anoying when I had learned English well enough to understand it without subtitles

[tired monolith]

if its optimal its always great, but yea hardcoded can be annoying

[stone wadi]

yeah
hopefully they have stopped doing that

[harsh rock]

Ohhh!....I totally missed that this forum thread scooted past 15,000 posts.... nice work you lot

[strange bane]

https://www.dw.com/en/who-blew-up-russias-nord-stream-pipeline/video-66253760

A decent overview of everything.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqsX3jjQ2_U (if you'd prefer to watch it on YouTube)

[stone wadi]

How long do you think it will be before we see a majour newspaper leading with "why russia blow their own pipeline"?

[strange bane]

The pictures of the Ukrainian soldier who turns out not to be involved got it’s own story, solely based on a passport, so you’d think so.

The company behind it having executives who are provably Russian aligned is a far more sexier story.

With the soldier we just had a lot of family photos, grandma kissing him pictures, family event pictures, birth of his child stuff.

In some regards, it’s quite unfortunate he got dragged into it when the reporting now says they don’t think he was one of the crew, at which point it’s essentially him being used for his likeness in the fake Romanian document.

To be a shallow about it, he’s a pretty generic Slavic looking guy.

Like how people say other races/ethnicities all look alike to them (obviously, if you’re from that area, you’re probably better able to tell the differences apart), there’s probably a decent amount of Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians who could conceivably pass off his likeness as a fake ID when dealing with a Western European “authority.”

Wouldn’t be terribly hard to weave a conspiracy in many directions.

We know his likeness was seemingly used.

If he was involved, that’s fair.

If he wasn’t, but it was a Ukrainian op (state approved or otherwise) it’s not terribly hard to get a document photo of someone.

And if it was a Russian op, it’s not exactly a stretch to suggest that given the tentacles Russia had into Ukrainian intelligence/the state, until 2014, that (a copy at least) of the population records somehow ended up in Russian hands via an enterprising intelligence officer, or similarly via records that fell into Russia’s lap in the occupied territories.

I’m speculating here, and rambling away from the topic of the company.

On the topic of the owner, D. B. (Or D. K.), despite running a company with N. A, and having postings provably in Poland, there’s nothing of the two together.

Whilst you mightn’t do it at work, surely two business partners would at least be going on nights out together occasionally? And would at least be social media friends?

[stone wadi]

The thing that people of any given ethnicity "all" looking more similar to people not of that ethnicity (or geographic area) or in the end just used to differentiating between different subgroups is something you think "that can't be true" as it sounds so shallow. But it has been shown to be an actual thing both in studies and with face recognition software failing on ethnicities it was not trained on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-race_effect
and is something really young children don't have but acquire (children younger than 3 are better able to tell individual lemurs apart than scientists that have worked with lemurs for decades)

Anyway I digress, iirc the effect is less extreme when directly comparing two people or a photo with a irl person but then who looks like their passport image to start with and how much attention do border agents actually pay to their work

[stone wadi]

Yeah especially if it's a small company and the people in question being under 50-60

[stone wadi]

Or just the ability to make their own "genuine" Ukrainian passports (or get a copy made of someone's actual passport)

[stone wadi]

Seems like Herch have stumbled out of whatever cave he is hiding in with his pants around his knees
https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1684677880419106816

Bad Baltic Takes (@BadBalticTakes)

OMG. Seymour Hersh’s handler really messed up.

The “anonymous US official” supposed to be briefing Hersh used a russian expression (мальчик в трусиках) that English speakers don’t use. 😂

Likes

6968

Retweets

1427

Twitter · Jul 27, 2023, 9:31 PM

I am starting to wonder how much of the genuine Hershian reporting was not also feed to him from the russian secret service.
The only thing odd abotu it would be that they actually found true stuff instead of making up stuff

[little zinc]

dont see a contradiction, if you can advance your cause with bits of truth why invent something instead.

[stone wadi]

More that russia is so happy with making up suff that that is would be odd if any truth actually get mixed into it.
But it might just have been some really long term small team effort to groom future journalistic authorities so they gave them material to expose the US and now they can feed them pure bullshit without them batting an eye

still impresivly lazy work both from Hersh and his handlers

[vocal violet]

There has been nothing genuine from Hersh for a decade at least

[storm wren]

I've always suspected Hersh has been close to the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity crowd and their various hangers on, and some of them are compromised by Russian intelligence (whether they realise or not), and they're passing on info and contacts to Hersh. It also helps to think of groups like VIPS and people like Ted Postol as representing the Vietnam-Reagan era version of the 2000s Greenwalds and Taibbis, and 2010s Grayzone types, hence why they're in each others orbits.

They all have a pathological distrust of America (usually based on legitimate issues) that becomes the lens they see the world through, so they always see US actions as bad and anyone who they imagine resisting or opposing it as balancing US power. On top of that they have a view that the US has a hand in everything, and it's always the US's fault, so it robs everyone else of agency, even Putin when he invades Ukraine, because in their mind the US provoked or tricked Putin into doing it.

Which also means they constantly find themselves in a position of justifying the actions of those they see in opposition to the US, so they have to build an entire alternative reality where chemical attacks in Syria are all fake, MH17 was shot down by Ukraine, and Russian war crimes are just propaganda from the West and captured media

At a fundamental level they're really no different from people who think the earth is flat or vaccines have microchips in them, it's all fuelled by the same distrust and rejection of traditional sources of authority, usually founded in legitimate trauma and a sense of betrayal that becomes the lens through which they perceive the world.

And thanks to the internet they can find whole communities who think the same way, and will radicalise individuals who become part of them.

[tidal knoll]

It does feel nice to find a community of likeminded people!

[next lagoon]

Yeah that's one thing that saddens me that we see a lot, especially with some current topics

People lend a lot of credence to authority around these careers but tend to forget they're a) humans like us, and b) all the tools you learn (this is what they are, tools! you're not rebuilt as a robot) can just as easily be harmful if applied with skew or inaccurately

I love using ACH as very small example because keeping 1 data point that could be split into multiple can change the entire weighted conclusion and lead you down an entire opposite path for the rest of your analysis

[civic rapids]

Doesn't that 'мальчик в трусиках' go back to the false Ru claim that seem to start from Dugin about Ua/Azov crucifying a child in Slavyansk back in 2014?

[inner sandal]

Hersh has long-standing connections with VIPS and the closely related Consortium News. He clearly relies on them a lot.

https://al-bab.com/denying-the-obvious-8-old-spies-network

[pure vine]

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Nord-Stream-Sprengung-Die-Spur-fuehrt-nach-Moskau-article24250566.html

[raven charm]

It's an older article from 11.07.2023, think it was posted here before.

There was also a rebuttal from another journalist on Twitter but I'm currently unable to find it.

[little zinc]

yeah, we discussed that story here ff.: #1072947857654554624 message

[stone wadi]

the fact that NTV have a viagra ad don't make them seem like a reliable source 🤣

[hushed karma]

It is looping around the dead ends now. I think that this will last until some years from now to come out who ordered this whole event.

[strange bane]

This isn’t looping around dead ends?

The Polish company owned by “Ukrainians” was an element mentioned fairly early once the yacht story came into being.

We didn’t know the name of the company until a couple months later when it was named, we then got a censored image of the peoples passport and a brief description of them, then a couple months later (recently) we got the VK (and a lot of background information) into the owner of the company.

It’s only a dead end if you specifically don’t want this element investigated. It’s about the only information from a credible investigation that’s been carried out, so I think it’s much too early to be making suggestions like that.

As Oliver I think said, since there’s apparently a Ukrainian nationalist soldier who was on the team, isn’t it weird that a lady who owns the company that rented the yacht is living free in Russia?

We’re already at a point where you could quite credibly make the allegation that Russia is behind this, not just as a suggestion anymore.

[inner sandal]

At this point I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Russia was behind the sabotage but I'm doubtful, partly because of the intelligence report, circulated among western countries in June 2022, about a plan for six Ukrainians with false identities using divers to plant explosives from a rented boat.

Did the Russians also get wind of the plan and decide to implement it themselves after the Ukrainians apparently abandoned it?

Alternatively, was the Ukrainian plan a fake, planted by Russia?

I'm puzzled. Does anyone else have thoughts about this?

[stray iris]

I don't really think those who are capable of gathering solid intelligence seem to have much motives to make public the details of this event. And for a variety of reasons (different sides). However what you can say is that it's seems the 1st major event of this sort of future under sea warfare poerations.

So "as such" it could also be considered to be a sort of "trial run" or "demonstration" in terms of it's a way to demonstrate modern warfare capabilities for this sorts of warfare onto another vulnerable state (or multiple states).

States are inevitably then being faced with a bunch of very tight lipped security concerns to remain at play for several years, until the under sea assets of various countries become determined to either become "secured" somehow (via sufficient counter measures put into place). Or otherwise divestment from individual critical assets.

Whether it's Russia, or Ukraine (as state sanction actions), or whether it's other actors. The specifics does not really affect the broader playground of new type of warfare. Unless to the extent of MAD. Aka like nuclear, whereby enemy states de-facto end up agreeing not to resort to these measures, (due to them just being far too disruptive to BOTH sides).

And that is probably a wider / bigger set of broader general concerns. Rather than who specifically was the ones to blame who 1st pulled the trigger to perform these aka "live" tech demonstrations.

There are probably better ways to decribe or characterize these new category of sabotage events. To adopt some better terminology.

[stone wadi]

it was russia
they are the only ones with any motivation and the ones with the most extensive and well documented capabilites to do actions like this

[civic rapids]

I don't think there is enough known yet to confirm it being either an original Ua plan later implemented by Ru, or just an outright Ru fake implemented to look like a Ua due to the surface info publicly available (incomplete info that can influence ppls thinking in the meantime).
From all I've seen I agree it sincerely looks like Ru, although I don't yet have 100% confidence.

• Ru stood to gain a lot I believe from it's destruction and ensuing whodunnit, mistrust/FUD etc, even if it later is publicly confirmed to be them, the damage is already largely being done.
• I don't know about anyone else, but the question of how would NATO/EU/US respond in such an outcome has bugged me also. Too little and gamble 'green lighting' further instances, and too severe a response further escalating to a point I'm certain all nations want to avoid.
• Incomplete info that involves foreign state intelligence services fingers being released risks affecting domestic politics in a number of countries.
• Ru lacklustre responses to questions regarding the locations of their ships etc identified by some of you.
• The lack of any apparent actions/investigations etc against the Ua owners of the travel company that rented Andromeda and residing within Ru control.

[vocal violet]

Yeah, I think the consensus is a "points to Russia, but there's no hard evidence for it"

[civic rapids]

There was this as well #1072947857654554624 message Norway kicked out 20 recentlyish (15+5) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-expelling-five-russian-diplomats-foreign-ministry-says-2023-04-25/ I think I'd be surprised if there turned out to be nothing connected between some of these even if they were just gathering intel

[vocal violet]

Tbf the expulsion of Russian diplomats has been a common occurrence since the start of the invasion last year

[stone wadi]

russia love to have extreamly large diplomatic missions to all kinds of nations
its time that we all start to demand a one for one diplomatic presense

[hushed karma]

Do not forget the very easy way out of a rather difficult situation for a diversity of western European country’s working together around these pipelines, and their politics around the Ukraine war. As Germany had that problem very clear on the second pipeline. Both pipelines and its gasflow could not be just stopped without this event. And that solved a serious issue for them. While Russia was playing with the deliverance of gas and also using blackmail with it. As at this very moment i do not role out any of it. How often have we seen double espionage/agents ? So, for me, not even the proven nationality of any makes it conclusive enough to blame any country at this moment. Because there is no conclusive evidence yet. Even as most tracks seems to leed towards Russian or Ukraine involvement.

[little zinc]

iirc ns2 project was frozen before going into operation and gazprom stopped flows of ns1 a month before the attack. no gasflows at the time of attack. and who even could have done it for germany? BND?

[hushed karma]

Correct. But it was at that time a political issue for not only Germany. Also the VS. And i am not writing or meaning that in this case some party is the client that ordered. I just cannot rule anyone out at this moment by all facts delivered so far. Every party in this are masters in misleading actions and fabricating false leads.

[eager moss]

for what it's worth . . . . . https://jeffreyabrodsky.substack.com/p/lab-analysis-does-not-detect-explosives?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[hushed karma]

Could traces been blown at and away at larger distances by the released pressure ?

[hushed bay]

seems sortta hard to believe that an elite team of operators would be able to return to the scene, remove every trace of the explosives to thwart any future investigations, and at the same time be clumsy enough to leave behind

[eager moss]

There are several 'observations' that could be made about the recent article; the most obvious being that the only 'news' item is that the samples that were obtained and tested did not return any indication of explosive related substance.

I find it very optimistic to expect to have detected any explosive substance during the testing. Not only were the samples taken eight months after the explosion, with the sediment transportation and deposition that has occurred in that time, but there is a large crater adjacent to the damaged pipeline where the seabed material was removed by the discharging gas; this would have spread the seabed material over a large area up to hundreds of metres away from the site. There are also many questions regarding how and from where the samples were obtained; the sediment transport/deposition and the crater should both affect the 'how' and the 'where' for the sampling to be in any way meaningful.

[hushed karma]

Wat was the weather like at that time and short after? If it was more ruff sea and higher wind , it could even be transported even over hundred of miles. The discharge blew it all up and within the current and the weather. And than there is that military training zone not to far from these spots. If that was east at that time it went towards that zone and it will never been traceable again. I guess they knew how to do it and when.

[raw nexus]

Why such a show. What did they expect to find or were they there to report what they didn't find.

[eager moss]

This seems to be a story about nothing and I wonder why it would have been published. As I wrote earlier, to expect to have found some trace of explosive substance in the seabed material near the damaged pipeline was optimistic at best. It's also a strange story about how there was some confusion over the samples being left at the lab and how someone who pays for the testing doesn't have any rights to the results; that doesn't make any sense. At best we have a story about how samples that couldn't reasonably have been expected to provide useful results didn't provide any useful results assuming they were actually tested.

[hushed bay]

Based on this latest article and the one, I think it's pretty clear that the author is starting from a conclusion and then working backwards, looking for anything to fit into that conclusion. As opposed to doing it the other way, which is to objectively look at the evidence, and then based on that work toward conclusions.

[raw nexus]

An attention Wellington

[inner sandal]

The article refers to the testing company's "General Terms and Conditions for Inspection and Analytical Services". A Google search reveals only one online document using this exact phrase, and it's the terms and conditions of a German company called SGS. The restrictions mentioned in the article appear to be in paragraph 11b.

My initial impression from the SGS website is that it's mainly in the business of testing products to certify that they meet the required standards. I haven't got time to follow it up myself but if anyone wants to call SGS it might be an interesting conversation.

https://www.sgs.com/en/-/media/sgscorp/documents/corporate/technical-documents/legal-documents/conditions-of-services/sgs-group-geer-general-conditions-of-inspection-and-testing-services-en.cdn.en.pdf

[stone wadi]

any sample taken even within days would have homopatical levels of anything from the expolisve compond used

[stone wadi]

Gazprom was facing punishment fees from none delivery through NS1 so just to get out of that would be a blow the pipes
also the fact that the remaining NS2 pipe have significantly higher capacity than both of the NS1 pipes....

[limber hinge]

Bouncing off Dreamcat4 post up thread and Axel’s post above.

Gasprom has a financial incentive for the attack, to declare force majure and escape significant penalties. Others have posted about this in more detail.

Dreamcats comments about this being a “demonstration attack” caught my eye. I BELIEVE that EU/NATO have significantly more underwater infrastructure which is inherently exposed to attack than Russia does. This is a asymmetric warfare scenario, we have a lot of fat targets and they have few.

Putin has amply demonstrated his affinity for infrastructure destruction. Russian ships have been surveying Western infrastructure for a long time. How do we know Putin has NOT placed explosives on other pipes and cables? What would be the cost of destroying all undersea fiber optic cables to the UK? To the London financial markets?

Of course this does nothing to PROVE Russia did the attacks. But it does make for an interesting motive. Infrastructure blackmail.

[eager moss]

SGS is a well known testing/analysis company with offices/labs in many countries; a large and capable organisation involved in many industries - oil & gas, mining, transportation, food supply etc. To my knowledge, they are frequently used in oil and gas; they wouldn't necessarily be the first choice for testing of seabed samples for which a geotech/survey company would be more suited and might be more familiar with what is required. Whatever company was used and whatever their standard T&C's, someone buying lab testing of samples should ensure that they have the rights to use the results, including by publishing on the internet. Maybe this will happen sometime soon since the article mentioned that permission had been requested.

[eager moss]

Not sure why it might be thought that the remaining NS2 pipeline has higher capacity than both NS1 pipelines. As far as I am aware, all four pipelines were the same diameter and specification with the same design pressures; so each pipeline would have exactly the same capacity to deliver gas.

[stone wadi]

My mistake, no idea what I got that info from.
Both seem to use 1220mm dimeter pipes

[stone wadi]

Just the notion of "oh I buy the testing of this but I can't use the result" is just absurd

[stone wadi]

That it was a demonstration have been obvious from the start.
Though then again it was not really a capability that people dident know that russia have

[eager moss]

asymmetric did you say ? . . . . . https://www.submarinecablemap.com/

[stray iris]

i believe at least in terms of the internet ones, russia has been doing for a while now certain large scale dry runs or 'simulations'. whereby they attempt to understand how their nation would cope with some either total or partial isolation and being cut off from the rest of the world.

however i am less certain what was the outcome / results of those experiments on their online infastructure. since it's a pretty big deal tbh

things like 'turning off google' --> isn't so easy. as some westerners have quickly found out! because you then need to introduce some sorts of stand-in alternatives (maybe by simulation, or genuine ones from their yandex etc)

[stray iris]

ok but doesn't the total length of a pipeline also matter? as per the accumulated friction along the entire distance to overcome? and how about even the ambient temperatures affecting those operation? (the friction / viscocity of the fluid)

[eager moss]

The length of the pipeline does matter but all four lines are much the same length as well - to about 2 kilometres over a distance of 1220 kilometres - so that won't impact the capacity of the pipelines to any measurable degree. Temperature is certainly a factor but again all four pipelines will be at the same ambient temperature since they are at the same water depth along the route. The internal gas temperature will change as pressure reduces and the gas expands and the dynamic viscosity will change with both temperature and density but, again, that will also be the same for all four pipelines.

[stone wadi]

what is the pressure cuttof between lng and high pressuriced natural gas?
you could get higher capacity if you do higher pressure

[stray iris]

indeed i forgot about all those LNG specifics details... it's something complex and far above my pay grade. But thank's seva for clarifying the pipeline length and so on. All being similar / near enough same.

Better to speak with / consult with some relevant petro chemichal engineers within LNG industry.

[limber hinge]

From wiki on Nordstream 2

Sberbank's investment research division in 2018 voiced concerns from Russian stakeholders' perspective, specifically that the project's goals are exclusively political:[152]

Gazprom's decisions make perfect sense if the company is assumed to be run for the benefit of its contractors, not for commercial profit. The Power of Siberia, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream are all deeply value-destructive projects that will eat up almost half of Gazprom's investments over the next five years. They are commonly perceived as being foisted on the company by the government pursuing a geopolitical agenda. A more important characteristic that they share, however, is the ability to employ a closely knit group of suppliers in Russia, with little outside supervision.

— Sberbank CIB, Russian Oil and Gas - Tickling Giants, 2018

IIRC our discussion here has focused on a state sponsored attack. Some weeks ago I read a piece pointing a finger at Gasprom itself as the sabatour. Don't recall where but it was related to debt and insurance.

The above piece also looks at a Gasprom centric motive.

So Gasprom itself or assisted by a state may have been the perpetrator.

Recall also that Gasprom has now announced it is starting its own private military group.

Perhaps if we view Russia through the lens of an amalgamation of semi-loyal feudal states then events may come into better focus.

Russia per se did not carry out the action but one of the feudal entities within Russia, not an oblast but a corporation or oligarch.

[eager moss]

There isn't a pressure cut-off that defines the difference between LNG and pressurised methane gas (ie "natural gas"). Liquifying 'natural gas' is a cryogenic process where the gas is cooled to around -162C (111 degrees Kelvin) and the LNG is transported in custom built vessels at that temperature and a pressure a little above atmospheric pressure.

[stray iris]

so it's not economically feasible to transport LNG over great distances. Can't be done.

Is why always pressurized natrual gas instead (for these Nordstream type ones).

[strange bane]

There’s also the issue of “boil off” with LNG.

It’s impossible to stop a small amount of evaporation in your LNG tank, which requires you to occasionally boil it off to avoid an incident.

Which is just opening a (couple) valves on a ship, but I can imagine it being a pain in the butt for a pipeline.

[stray iris]

Yeah there whole economics and engineering behind decisions and trade-offs around energy consumed to keep the refregieration / crogenics. See you can spend more money to better insulate tanks.

Or you can pay less in construction costs. But then have higher levels of boil-off / losses. And depending for how long times the LNG must be remain in liquid form before it can be re-converted back again (at the other end). So it's all engineering tradeoffs / economies of scale, logistics. All mixed together with the gas pricing and LNG conversion facilities. etc. etc.

And (for another matter). How big must tanks be to be most optimum / economcal. For those insulation performance and cost(s). Versus smaller vessels / containers that can carry less at a time. That is truly some conjoint sets of multi-varate complex math problems to fully understand.

[stone wadi]

Right, temperature based phase change instead of pressure based phase change

[stone wadi]

For hydrogen and nitrogen you use the boil off to keep the temperature low, likely with helium and other cryogenic temperature gasses too
That is why smaller dewer flask dont have lids as if they had they would explode

[stray iris]

here's a good explanation for LNG transport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_LNG_Engine#Boil-off_gas

There is also research into using ammonia for ship fuel too. (which might be relevant to russia - that they export ammonia also for things like fertilizer etc.)

(sorry if this is wrong thread BTW)

[strange bane]

Yea, that’s how we power the LNG ship I’m currently on lol.

[inner sandal]

Absolutely fascinating thread from Michael Kobs, apparently giving the inside story on Brodsky and the testing of Nord Stream samples. https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1688368542574411777

Michael Kobs (@MichaKobs)

#Nordstream
No, it was not a clean-up action by Sweden. The problem is much more that Jeffrey Brodsky has no idea about technical things. But in order to exploit the samples that did not belong to him for his journalistic ambitions, he avoided any contact with his "colleague".

▶ Play video

Twitter · Aug 7, 2023, 1:56 AM

[strange bane]

I can't help but find it hilarious that these two grifters are having a Twitter spat.

[stone wadi]

🤣
🤦
https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1688377732369981440

Michael Kobs (@MichaKobs)

@Erkperk @TheGrayzoneNews After a Spanish lab understood he wanted to test explosives, the lab advised him to call the police immediately because he wasn't even allowed to be in possession of them. In his panic, Jeffrey disposed of the sample.

Twitter · Aug 7, 2023, 2:33 AM

He should have told the lab that he wanted to test traces of explosives not that he wanted to test explosives

[strange bane]

As much as I take issue with Erik's very clear agenda, this thread is somewhat interesting, at least for what he says he was told:

https://twitter.com/Erkperk/status/1686046849839337473

Erik Andersson 🐘 (@Erkperk)

I finally got around to contacting the owners of the ships which headed straight towards the Nord Stream 1 explosion sites when they happened.

The answer was quite interesting ⬇️

Twitter · Jul 31, 2023, 4:11 PM

https://vxtwitter.com/Erkperk/status/1686046859083534337

https://vxtwitter.com/Erkperk/status/1686046861348544512

https://vxtwitter.com/Erkperk/status/1686048178603278341

Only useful for the information given by the captain though, as always, be very wary of Erkperk's findings.

[strange bane]

For professional background, that's an electronic chart software called Chartworld/SevenCs, which is owned by the Raymarine brand.

[strange bane]

Whilst this is a SperryMarine radar screen.

For some more information on the Cellus: https://vesselregister.dnv.com/vesselregister/details/G90574

[strange bane]

Totally unrelated to Nordstream, but related to the Cellus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETrWMvicKps

[stone wadi]

@strange bane do you agree with his notion of those two boats being "big ships"?
To me they seem rather small
https://twitter.com/Erkperk/status/1629234959713021959

Erik Andersson 🐘 (@Erkperk)

10/ The second blast site in the Swedish zone had less traffic passing right over (as predicted). But st the time of blast Cellus and Radich were heading towards the plume, and diverted although no warning was issued until 1:45 after. Big ships!

Twitter · Feb 24, 2023, 9:40 PM

LoL
How would the marine rescue agency documentation practice prevent future gas pipelines from being blow up?
https://twitter.com/Erkperk/status/1686340835900530688

Erik Andersson 🐘 (@Erkperk)

16/ Although it was clear from the beginning that this was a major disaster, there was no attempt to document it until 15 hours later. I pointed out that there's a legitimate reason to document since it helps prevent future disasters, but no agency had that perspective.

Twitter · Aug 1, 2023, 11:39 AM

[limber hinge]

Sara,
What struck me is that no other ships were shown on the radar.

Exactly how ling after the blast was the radar image taken?

[strange bane]

They are radar returns with AIS overlayed onto them.

[strange bane]

But the Northern explosions occurred at 19:03 LT (17:03 UTC).

The captain is saying his OOW reported it to him at 19:10 LT, the pictures of the radar screen with the cursor over the (apparent) gas leak plumes are both 17:13 UTC (19:13 LT), and he had input the position into his ECDIS at 19:25 LT

[strange bane]

And presumably the picture of the gas plume he gives is taken around that time, sometime between it being reported to him at 19:10 and nautical twilight.

https://thenauticalalmanac.com/TNARegular/2022_Nautical_Almanac.pdf

[strange bane]

Which at approximately 55 degrees north, is sometime between 1906 - 1909 UTC (2106 - 2109 LT) for that latitude, but that is the very latest because at that point the sun is so low that you can no longer see the horizon, you've ran out of useable light a little bit before then.

[strange bane]

But additionally, sunset is approximately 17:49 UTC (19:49 LT) for that latitude.

So there's about a 60ish minute period that picture could have been taken in.

Also regarding this:

https://vxtwitter.com/Erkperk/status/1686046863588216832

[strange bane]

http://navtex.lv/

To complete the timeline:

1703 UT / 1903 LT: Nordstream "North" explosions.
1710 UT / 1910 LT: OOW on Cellus notices the gas flow, calls down to his captain to come up onto the bridge.
1713 UT / 1913 LT: Picture of Cellus' SperryMarine radar screen with cursor hovered over radar returns showing approximate position of reported explosions.
1725 UT / 1925 LT: Picture of Cellus' Chartworld/SevenCs ECDIS, with a position marker input with one of the positions shown as being directly above the chart symbols for the Nordstream gas pipeline.
1749 UT / 1949 LT: Sunset.
1757 UT / 1957 LT: Email received by Swedish authorities from Cellus.
1824 UT / 2024 LT: Civil Twilight.
1841 UT / 2041 LT: Swedish Nav Warn 144/22 issued, declares exclusion zone for Nordstream "North" explosions.
1906 UT / 2106 LT: Nautical Twilight.
2054 UT / 2254 LT: Danish Nav Warn 231/22 issued, declares exclusion zone for Nordstream "North" explosions also.

For what its worth also, Swedish Nav Warn 144/22 and Danish Nav Warn 231/22 describe the exact same locations, Denmark's is just 2 hours later, so almost certainly a result of Swedish authorities sending the information to their neighbour, and asking them to issue the same warning.

Interesting that the Cellus is the apparent source of the report though.

Given it says he gave up after his VHF call didn't have the range and chose to send an email, I checked Yaddnet just to be sure he didn't try an MF call.

Short answer, the Cellus didn't, just has its regularly mandatory test calls, the same test DSC call captured by 3 different antennas on the 14th September and two weeks later a test DSC call on the 28th September.

(From Yaddnet)

[pure finch]

A quick look at what Cellus did on the 26th of September.

[strange bane]

Nice!

[pure finch]

zoomed in & shortened for the period with wind overlay

[limber hinge]

Sara,
Thank you for that work.

[strange bane]

No problem 🙂

[limber hinge]

Sara,
Just trying to confirm what I am seeing on the radar and then some questions. Do we make the same deductions from these radar images, given your experience on a commercial ship bridge.

The screen shots show the Cellus about 8nm from the nearest site 7 minutes after thr explosion. Cellus is the closest vessle indicated. All other ships are further away or not showing on radar or AIS.

I do not have a good sense of how sensitive the ships radar is, it looks well tuned for sensitivity given the amount of clutter. True or my BS?

That means no ships of size were close to the explosion site at time of explosion. Not enough time to get that far away that quick. True?

A small vessle, with a low radar cross section could be there, radar mat not pick it up?

However, given the size if disturbance that would have been a scary and dangerous place to be in a small boat. Potential loss of buoyancy issues?

[strange bane]

I do not have a good sense of how sensitive the ships radar is, it looks well tuned for sensitivity given the amount of clutter. True or my BS?

So first things first is, that its the ship's X-band radar.

Yea, the radar's gain is set to about 60-70%, decent setting. The rain and sea clutter are both on auto, not ideal. The tune is also on auto (Automatic Frequency Control), pretty high, but again it's fine.

As you can see around in the bottom left of both images, (its offset I should say), there's a big ring of speckles around the position of the Cellus, this is due to the clutter not being set properly, if they were they'd chop those returns down and you'd get a cleaner picture, but you can also see the light speckling in general on the radar (further out), this tells me that the gain is fine., tune is a little bad but eh, and the clutter is the main issue

I would add that it also probably must have had a new magnetron to get those clean images, sea clutter could be better, but the image (further out) is otherwise fine.

[stray iris]

Here is my question: are there any other possible ways to positively establish (in retrospect) - to gather new evidence that those known vessels were involved (and so long afterwards)... for example: if a subsequent future coastguard boarding and inspection (even years later). Perhaps under a different cause or pretense could then bring onboard a sniffer dog etc. To then detect old traces of certain explosives onboard etc. Which then should never have been expected onboard at any point in the vessel's known prior history of operations.

Or is it more the case that these vessels are known to be "so dirty" aka in terms of their general usage by Russia for widespread covert sea-based operations purposes. That something like an explosives could very plausibly have been kept or transported onboard for a variety of other reason(s). Than specifically for these Nordstream pipeline operation(s).

[strange bane]

The German police when they came on board say they detected "oktogen" explosives on the table of the Andromeda.

[strange bane]

To refer to the rest of what you said, yea. I’d agree that there is no sign of a ship scuttling away from the scene (unless it was a small boat with a low RCS).

In addition to not wanting to be anywhere near the turbulent gas plume (since it is not gonna be fun to breath either), I’d have to suggest there’s no way that anyone would have wanted to be anywhere near the explosion.

There was plenty of eyes on the Baltic after the southern explosion that morning, plenty of planes flying around too, being around the area is just asking to be noticed.

To put “the Hersh” to bed, it would be interesting to ask the Cellus if they noticed any MPAs flying around dropping sonobuoys.

If we discount it being manually triggered by a boat sailing over, and the Cellus (or other vessels in the area) don’t remember an MPA flying around, the only possible trigger mechanism is a previously set timer.

[strange bane]

I would presume it comes down to how much you bother to clean the contaminated area and the time that has passed.

If it’s a navy/associated vessel (as you say), it won’t be much of a slam dunk either to say “oh, yea we have detected traces of explosives from your ship” because of course it will have them.

[stray iris]

one thing i hear about in forenzics world is that... water environments can make doing necessary forenzics very difficult over time

(for example things submerged in rivers etc.)

[strange bane]

Ye, that’s what Brodsky/Erkperk discovered with their expedition, 10 months later any contaminated stuff is going to have been washed away.

[stone wadi]

this is the ships position?
I thought it might be the island or something else entirely
and that the ship was right in the center

[strange bane]

Yea, they offset the radar to give a better image of the two targets on the screen, you press the centre button to put it back to normal.

[strange bane]

But yea, that green line with two arrows is the ships heading.

The stuff around it is just from the sea/rain clutter/tune settings being done poorly for the conditions.

[stone wadi]

aha

good to know

[next dirge]

I don’t check this channel too often so I’m a few days late to the discussion - but the idea discussed a few days ago about Gazprom facing penalty fees for non-delivery being a possible motive for Russia sounds wholly unreasonable to me. Penalty clauses are usually very moderate, and won’t be upheld by courts if they are excessive. Probably talking a few $ millions at best, but anyway entirely negligible amounts of money for states.

@stone wadi @limber hinge

Feel free to share the specifics of what you’re referring to

[limber hinge]

There are better descriptors but it is late and I am tired.

One irony of the attack is that Russia's Gazprom potentially stands to benefit: it will no longer need to invent excuses not to supply Europe via Nord Stream 1. Now it can claim a force majeure, which will dramatically reduce the risk of compensation claims for non-delivered volumes.

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88062#:~:text=One irony of the attack,claims for non-delivered volumes.

[eager moss]

I stumbled across this report a few days ago whilst searching for other Nordstream data. It's from 1st August 2023 (this year) regarding a claim lodged in November 2022 against Gazprom for non-delivery of gas ; ie lodged after the Nordstream explosions. Some interesting aspects that I took from the report : a) that a claim has been lodged against Gazprom; b) this claim is for US$ 12.7 billion. https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/273917730/german-energy-giant-downbeat-on-russian-gas-supplies

[eager moss]

Whether a claim is successful remains to be seen. If it is successful, the value that is determined remains to be seen. "Last November, Uniper filed a claim with the Arbitration Tribunal in Stockholm to recover losses of 11.6 billion ($12.7 billion) from Gazprom Export for gas deliveries that were agreed under a contract but not made. That forced Uniper to buy "replacement gas" from other suppliers at "extremely high market prices." "

[eager moss]

Another part of the story. The dispute started before 26 September. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/russia-nears-gas-shutdown-in-europe-as-germany-rejects-claims-it-cant-fulfil-contracts.html

[stone wadi]

I have never heard about penalty clauses being moderate, I am involved in a construction project where the main construction companies are facing penalties of 0.5% of the whole project cost a day so about 100k$ a day.

The Gazprom penaltie clauses are intergovernmental in the end so could be basically anything

[stone wadi]

I assume it's milliard as long scale billion would be excessive even if all involved are using milliard for 10^9

[little zinc]

long scale billion is not (typically) used in english, billion means thousand millions or 10^9 & is the same as milliard (or the german milliarde)

[stone wadi]

that sentence feels like it should have a "in english" just after "in english,"
yeah, my comment was on it being reported at "billions" which two of the 3 parties involved have billion at 10^12 (the third don't use that word at all it) but it was most likely still 10^9
Though given that its governmental actors involved a 10^12 billion is not out of the scale of possibility

[next dirge]

There are no “penalties” but Uniper is launching arbitration proceedings in order to claim damages for breach of contract. You used the word “penalties”.

On the same note - Uniper as a company has been taken over by the German state, and it would be counterintuitive for Germany and whatnot to release evidence which could suggest that someone other than Russia/Gazprom was responsible (edit: since force majeure/frustration will depend on the event not being caused by either party). The same probably goes for other European states who have suffered losses and may want to claim damages. Under arbitration they would probably not be forced to disclose evidence, but if litigating the dispute they would

[limber hinge]

And, IIRC, Gasprom was on the hook to reimburse for the purchased gas at the extremely high prices. That would argue for 10^9 scale, American English Billion.

[eager moss]

That's my understanding based on the available reports. (I'm surprised there's any debate about the magnitude of a billion 🤦‍♂️). The Arbitration Tribunal in Stockholm was probably agreed in the contract by both parties; arbitration is required (not litigation) because Gazprom have denied any financial responsibility for non-delivery of gas on the basis of a force majeure and Uniper have rejected the claim of force majeure. So that needs to be resolved first . . . . .

Remembering, of course, that the original intent to claim was before 26 September.

[stone wadi]

the original claim was about the ""broken"" turbine

[next dirge]

What does “on the hook to reimburse” here mean?

[limber hinge]

on the hook for
idiom
US, informal
: owing money for (something) : responsible for (something)
He's still on the hook for the cost of the repairs.

[next dirge]

And what were they “on the hook” for?

[limber hinge]

The cost to replace all the gas they contracted to provide but was provided by alternate sources. And at the rate paid, not negotiated.

[next dirge]

We don’t know the terms of the contract - so it’s all speculation. But in theory, yes, if there was a breach of contract, then Gazprom could be liable to compensate the damaged parties for the difference in value between the price agreed, and the market price of the goods.

A force majeure event occurring 26 Sep 2022 would not relieve Gazprom of any liability they incurred before that date. When taking into consideration that market prices were much higher in the months before the Nord Stream sabotage than in the months after it, the difference in value (and therefore also liability) would likely have been much higher in the months before the force majeure event actually occurred - and as I said the Nord Stream bombing wouldn’t provide any defense for this

[limber hinge]

They filed force majure BEFORE the bombing.

Not making a point, just the facts.

[eager moss]

The attempt to gain compensation for non-delivery of gas is linked to the decreased gas delivery commencing in May and seems to be confused at times with the turbine sent to Canada for maintenance. The dates of when a turbine was taken offline is unclear but it's either early 2022 or even late-2021. It's usually the case that an additional turbine is provided to allow decommissioning of one for maintenance purposes without significant disruption of gas flows. The news reports in June 2022 were clear that it was the return of the turbine from Canada after maintenance that was being delayed by the imposed sanctions. "Siemens said in a statement this week that it supplied so-called aeroderivative gas turbines for a compressor station for Nord Stream 1 in 2009. These were manufactured in Canada and needed to be regularly sent back for maintenance, Siemens Energy said, adding one of the turbines was currently being overhauled in Montreal." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-reports-talks-with-germany-siemens-made-nord-stream-1-equipment-2022-06-16/

These two charts show the Nordstream gas delivery and the Dutch TTF gas price. Decreasing gas delivery to 40% capacity started w/e 29 May (week 21) and was complete 4 weeks later. It's clear that the increased gas prices (Dutch TTF) were highest prior to 26 September and that the steep rise occurred around the time that the Nordstream gas delivery was reduced to 40% capacity. The gas delivery chart indicates it's possible that the turbine was taken offline in January 2022 to be sent to Canada for maintenance.

[eager moss]

The entire situation is a bit of a mess :
German government seizes the assets of a Gazprom subsidiary; no compensation is paid, the assets are just seized.
German government hands the assets to Uniper to manage (and own ?)
Gazprom reduces Nordstream gas delivery to assets now managed (owned ?) by Uniper
Uniper is nationalised by German government because they can’t viably operate with reduced Nordstream gas delivery.
Uniper wants compensation from Gazprom for higher prices paid for gas purchased to replace the non-delivery of Nordstream gas.
Gazprom says “go away . . . ” or words to that effect.

It would make a fine comedy sketch.

[stray iris]

so... in essence: canada killed the future commercial viability of the nordstream 1 before it ever got blown up?

then making it possibly become more valued as some tech demo / false flag for a state actor like russian government? {while the nordstream 2 kept open) ?

is that a fitting summary of those precursor events?

[eager moss]

I'd suggest that it's much more likely that Canada was inadvertantly involved as a consequence of the sanctions that had been introduced after the turbine had been sent for maintenance. The commercial viability of Nordstream gas delivery had very little to do with the return of that one turbine but the need to regularly send each of the turbines back to Canada for maintenance may have become a future issue.

The requirement for regular maintenance and the need to send the turbines to Canada was an issue which seemed to have been resolved and that had raised the ire of Ukraine who objected to that fact.

[stray iris]

Ah interesting ok then... so the other nordstream 1 pipeline - it also uses Canada turbines too?

[eager moss]

all of the turbines were provided by Siemens, the German company.

but they are manufactured by Siemens in Canada

so they have to be returned there regularly for maintenance; not sure why, I'm currently reading up on that subject.

Compressors and turbines, aka rotating equipment, is not my area of expertise

[stray iris]

not uncommon for certain types of heavy equipment that is used in big industry

lets take some simple example: the bearings wears out after some period of continuus usage

but the thing is massive, and requires cranes etc. and then to be re-certified again after replacing the parts (that is situated in the middle). it's not really a simple matters to do

also given the critical nature of the equipment: if it fails then the whole pipeline is taken offline for some prolonged period costing millions of dollars in lost revenues

But what is pretty interesting is that there seems motives on both sides here (both ukraine and russia). To then blow it up.

[eager moss]

there are several turbines not just one for each pipeline; not sure how many I haven't been able to find details of the compression station

but here is something on the turbines https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/offerings/decarbonization-products-solutions/decarbonizing-aero-gas-turbines.html#SEAGTIntroduction

a number of the usual suspects manufacture areoderitive gas turbines : Siemens, General Electric, Baker HUghes, Mitsubishi . . . .

Here are some sources for my earlier post on how the turbine was returned and how Ukeaine objected. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-sent-repaired-turbine-nord-stream-germany-kommersant-2022-07-18/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-raised-ukraine-stance-russia-gas-turbine-with-trudeau-2022-07-17/

[next dirge]

Then the explosion wouldn’t matter …

I am just replying to the theory that Russia would blow up the pipeline to avoid legal liability for Gazprom. As a lawyer - I am not convinced. If Russia blew it up it was probably for another reason

[eager moss]

My interest is in trying to make sense of the available information from a perspective of subsea pipeline engineering and pipeline/offshore construction; hopefully helping others to gain a better understanding and perspective in the process. Theories on whodunit are not in my portfolio 🙂

[next dirge]

Russia is also working on seizing Fortums assets in Russia. Fortum was the majority shareholder in Uniper before it was nationalised by Germany on 21 September

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fortum-fights-sell-seized-russian-assets-get-compensation-2023-08-09/

[stray iris]

the ukrane public objection about the turbine would give russia some limited 'plausible deniability* cover' to point away / blame ukraine when doing their own covery operation / false flag / technology demonstrator

(what with the timelines, that public objection occuring before the operation)

or it could (alternatively) have been an encouragement for a non-sanctioned (private) operation on behalf of ukraine's interests

as one (of several) precursor event(s)

[stray iris]

in terms of this sortlist of heavy industry multinationals listed here... siemens is the one that jumps out as being the 'most russian friendly' of those options right? (being the only german one?)

maybe if there was also some other candidate russian owned business. which did not produce these type of turbines but was however in the same 'general sphere' of expertise. for other similar types of heavy equipment. or was based in another russian frindly nation, such as china?

[eager moss]

Politicians that make decisions affecting millions of people behaving like little kids in a playground or a bunch of drunks in a pub . . . . . . on all sides

[stray iris]

But either way I consider the destruction of the Nordstream 2 (in terms of being a technology demo) a win for the West. Because it provided the motivations and focus for the West to secure their own (many other) vulnerable under-sea assets.... Which then may become a net loss to Russia. Once those become sufficiently secured. Or divested / diversified.

[stone wadi]

no
the explosion stops continuing none delivery issues unless it can be proven that it was actually russia that blow up the pipelines

if their are no pipeline there then they can't be held liable for not deliver gas

(unless they whare the ones destroying it)

[stray iris]

this is the contract agreements. that there are penalties written in to the contract, right?

[stone wadi]

yes
their should be

[next dirge]

Pls guys 😭 there are no “penalties” in the contracts. Uniper’s claim is for breach of contract. Not remotely the same thing. And no Axel, a force majeure event wont erase any liability occurring from breach of contract before the force majeure event.

[stone wadi]

"continuing"
I.e. continue to increased after the day of the explosion
NOT liabilites incured before the expolosion

[eager moss]

how do we think subsea pipelines and subsea telecommunication cables can be made secure ?

[stone wadi]

the SCCAI don't seem to publish their verdicts

[stray iris]

i don't think some aspects can ever be public information. perhaps some of it is

or the governemnt might hold closed meetings with those relevant business asset holders

and whomever else is involved, coastguard etc.

some of the things we hear about: whether or not it can be detected, possible interference with the cables etc.

[stone wadi]

I find it a bit odd that contracts like that one isent public

[stray iris]

so maybe some new technologies can be added to existing under sea assets. or they can be better monitored / patrolled etc. but you know: sonar monitoring of nuclear subs is something (at least partially) military classified

[stone wadi]

One irony of the attack is that Russia’s Gazprom potentially stands to benefit: it will no longer need to invent excuses not to supply Europe via Nord Stream 1. Now it can claim a force majeure, which will dramatically reduce the risk of compensation claims for non-delivered volumes.

[eager moss]

so what we are thinking is that increased monitoring to detect 'third party' intrusion is the answer ? Either by vessel, sattelite or some other electronic means ?

[stray iris]

then there are technologies for better armoring or protecting new cables. or perhaps even burying them under the sea bed. which would impact plans that are being developed for pending new links

[stone wadi]

securing the sea they are in 🤷

[stray iris]

so a variety of things coming together is probably the answer here. instead of relying upon any 1 single approach

[stone wadi]

its a demonstration of capabilites among other things

[velvet rain]

Hi, could you please clarify where that quote is from?

[stone wadi]

the Carnegie link in this msg
#1072947857654554624 message

becouse the article litteraly don't contian anything more I post it as a img
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/germanys-uniper-moves-to-recover-natural-gas-losses-from-russias-gazprom/

anyone that know what "curtailment" imply in this case?

italy is also starting arbitration https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/eni-takes-gazprom-to-arbitration-over-gas-supply-cuts/2-1-1448127

[velvet rain]

Could you please add the link anyway? Thanks!

[stone wadi]

done

https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-germany-baltic-sea-70c1677a7087dfd842c82ec5720395ab

also from the AP article

about the pre explosion force majour claim
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1336188/uniper-receives-force-majeure-notice-from-gazprom

unipers preser on the arbitration
anyone that want to bug the them directly about a copy of the contract?
https://www.uniper.energy/news/uniper-initiates-arbitration-proceedings-against-gazprom-and-further-ringfences-russian-business-unit

[eager moss]

That chart of losses follows almost exactly the chart of Dutch TFF gas prices I posted earlier for all prices over €100/MWHr

[limber hinge]

I think that ship has sailed. LOL

These systems were built in such great quantity in the run up to globalization during a time of relative peace between the world powers.

Due Covid, and Russian reawakening, these facilities are at risk. Putin has amply demonstrated his ability to destroy to occupy, or deny use.

Russia has a substantial submarine fleet and has the best subsea operations ability in the wold. No one has the ability to stop that destruction should they go that route. Eventually the subs would be hunted down and killed but it would take years to rebuild the lost infrastructure.

This is the argument that Putin Blew the line, well 3/4ths of the line, to demonstrate his capability forcefully.

I do bot know that is a correct interpretation. Nor does it prove anything. It does provide a motive, useful to make a list of suspects only.

If there is a point to this discussion it is just that, to determine if Russia had viable motives for the attack.

[limber hinge]

Securing the sea is the ONLY option. Peter Zeihan has written about this extensively.

Russia has been poking around the NATO Atlantic seaboard for years with undersea operations ships. We have no public assessment of their actions, have they already mined numerous pipes, fiber optics, and power infrastructure? Publicly we do not know, Maybe the spooks know.

This is a really big and under reported topic.

[next dirge]

I’ll post this since you guys are being fairly speculative now anyway - maybe someone will recognise the car or the people in it? I snatched this photo on 27/9 (day after explosion) of this EU diplomatic car parked right outside the Russian MFA in Moscow. Could be anything but it must have been something urgent

[eager moss]

Subsea telecom cables are damaged frequently; some claim daily but I suspect that is an exaggeration. Those damaged cables are repaired and brought back in to service usually within a couple of weeks, sometimes within a few days if the required vessel/equipment is available nearby. Telecoms are temporarily diverted around any damaged section because there are alternative links between major nodes.

Subsea pipelines are a different story with very few examples of significant damage subsea, either from accidental impact or from sabotage.

Protection of subsea cables and pipelines is always considered during project engineering phases; risk analysis always considers possible sources of damage and the potential consequences. Until now the probability of occurrence of sabotage has been such an extremely low probability that it has not warranted identification of possible mitigation measures.

There are no realistic protection measures that can be employed for pipelines other than in shallow water where trenching will reduce the probability of occurrance of a sabotage event; trenching is already employed in such locations but is less viable in deeper water. The practicalities of trenching long distances in deep water are a significant challenge.

Protection for cables can also be improved by trenching into deeper water than is presently adopted (it's usually just in the shore approach) but most of the telecom cables are trans-ocean and in very deep water where trenching is not technically feasible at present and would be very expensive if it does become feasible on a large scale. Again, the practicalities present a significant challenge.

So what is realistically available is improved and more comprehensive monitoring together with more exclusive definition of prohibition corridors; which could prove difficult since some cables are in busy shipping areas.

So the issue becomes focussed on what can be done to provide passive protection to both pipelines and cables in shallower water and how international agreement can be achieved for protection of pipelines and cables in deeper international waters.

These, of course, are not the thoughts of a geopolitical expert but are just the conclusions derived from a few decades in the engineering and construction of subsea pipelines and cables. I agree that little, if anything, can be done for the network of telecom cables and existing subsea gas pipelines - and in fact trying to intervene on an existing system could cause more harm than good. I also think that little can be achieved for new cable or pipeline systems without significant cost implications and that no realistic passive solution currently exists for either cables or pipelines in deeper water.

[stone wadi]

the way that have worded the arbitration charge it sounds like they might plan on passing on any winning from arbitration to costumers (if it reaches end costumers is an other queston entirely

for telecom and power the simpler and likely cheeper solution is to just built such a high redundency that any sabotage significant to the operational capatabilites would be really hard without it becoming a obvious act of war

as for such cables being damaged daily
that might not be impossible if you include all the small short sections of cables that tie togheter all kinds of small islands in arcepelagos around the world

[eager moss]

My cynicism is such that I think when corporates refer to customers and taxpayers they are taking the pi$$.

What I found interesting about the chart is that 'losses' were being considered for when the price of gas was over €100/MWHr

[stone wadi]

uniper is govement owned now so that might make it silighly more likely that they pass on the compensation

[stone wadi]

its not losses as such
its the differnece in price paid vs at what price gazprom was contracted to deliver it at
so uniper dident suffer losses, their custumers did

if they decide to keep whatever the arbitrators decide on they might be in a really bad legal spot and it would make any future arbitration demands really hollow

[eager moss]

If a case is based on not delivering the gas as contracted the company has had to pay the full market cost not just the difference in cost between what was paid and the contracted price ??

[stone wadi]

depend on if the company have recived payment or if that have been withheld

[eager moss]

Gazprom is reputed to have not been making much money from the contracted price for Nordstream 1 gas (not sure I believe that but , , , , ) and the Dutch TTF price was ~ €30/mwhr for many years (over ten) prior to 2022.

[stone wadi]

even if the project was never primary economical for russia no one can deny that they have gained significant incomes from it

[exotic shale]

I think suset was around 1900 LT and by 2024LT when Christian Radish passed within 3NM of sites they ware not visible at all. However, at around 2230 danish military sent out a helicopter to film IR and you can see all three major leaks on this footage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bXDujfre7M

[exotic shale]

I can attest that Kobs account is correct I agree with his assessments.

[stray iris]

it is expected that the water environment makes collecting such types of evidence pretty difficult. as being described in that twitter thread. So a lack of evidence, it's hardly surprising or any such 'proof of cover ups'.

It becomes necessary to understand limitations of what other types of evidence may remain and can actually be gathered. And what other lines of enquiry / investigation should be made instead.

[stone wadi]

what did they even try to test?
the water?

[stone wadi]

If they tested the soil someone needs to ask them if they found any mustard

[exotic shale]

Is this at the exact location of the northern explosions? (looks right to me)

[exotic shale]

We hoped to find explosive residue in sediment samples from the sea bottom near the NS2S explosion. Since there was no major gas outflow there I thought there was at least a small probability that some traces were still on the seafloor, but the lab didn't find anything of interest.

[stone wadi]

No it's Bornholm general and this year

[stone wadi]

You would be basically infinity more likely to find mustard than anything from the explosions

[eager moss]

A couple of months ago I was looking for some vision of the NS2 leak in the Swedish EEZ; @Puca provided some sat images which were helpful. I have now found a photo of the leak at the surface which I thought i should share. The image is taken on Wednesday 28 September - about 2 days after the explosion.

I find this interesting because it shows that the gas discharge from the hole in NS2 two days after the explosion was still fairly significant (the hole in NS2A not the full bore rupture in the Danish EEZ). We know from other reports that NS2 was still discharging gas until between 4 and 5 days after the explosion; it was reported on Saturday 1st October that the pressure had stabilised.

https://www.voanews.com/a/danes-nord-stream-2-pipeline-seems-to-have-stopped-leaking-/6772212.html

[eager moss]

We can also see that the pipeline has been moved northwards from it's original position on the seabed - the sonar images clearly show where the pipeline was positioned prior to the explosion. This is apparent from the sonar images obtained from both north and south of the pipeline (although it is clearer on the image from the north).

side scan from the North side scan from the south

The image of the gas at the surface 2 days after the explosion, the fact that NS2 was still leaking until 4-5 days after the explosion, and the lateral displacement of the pipeline are all significant factors in understanding that the pressure in the NS2 pipeline at this location at the time of the explosion was not insignificant as has been suggested by many. I don't have the software to conduct a rigorous analysis but some simpler analysis estimates that the pressure at this location could have been around 80-85 bar at the time of the explosion, 17 hours after the full-bore rupture in NS2 in the Danish EEZ.

[hidden kraken]

What does that suggest?

[eager moss]

It tells us that we shouldn’t be assuming that there was a much lower gas pressure at the NS2AS site at the time the damage was caused at that location and drawing conclusions about any of the explosions and resulting pipeline damage based upon that assumption.

[hidden kraken]

Forgive me if I misunderstand, if we can assume the gas pressure was the same/as high as usual, that means that the Russians didn't lower it before the explosion.

Does that suggest either they weren't aware it would explode, or could have purposefully kept the pressure the same to make it look like they weren't aware.

[eager moss]

There has been much speculation that the pressure at the NS2A-S location had substantially reduced in the 17 hours since the first explosion on the NS2A pipeline in the Danish EEZ and that this was the reason that there was a hole rather than full-bore ruptures and much more substantial damage as is evident at the three other damaged locations. The point I am addressing is that this assumption isn't supported by the visual information available nor by a simplified engineering analysis.

I don't think it has been suggested that the pipeline pressure was deliberately reduced prior to the sabotage; the pipelines were shut in and would have been at the 'settle-out' pressure for NS1 pipelines.

[hidden kraken]

Oooh right, I get you. Thanks.

[inner sandal]

Is there a way to stop the gas flow except at the two end points? I'm wondering if it's possible to isolate a particular section of it, but I suspect not.

[stone wadi]

It's not

[stone wadi]

It was the same as usual
Any decrease would been really suspecious

[hidden kraken]

Got it, thanks.

[stone wadi]

Right now I get whare the idea that the second leak would have had less discharge.

Timeline: (correct me if I am wrong)

The NS2A is breached by a explosion in the danish EEZ.
The pressure drops to 8 bar at the German station fairly quickly establishing the death of the breach.
Gas continues to escape from the part to the north of the breach.
A second breach in NS2A is caused by the explosions in the Swedish EEZ.
Their is still a massive amount of gas north of the breaches

The pipe contine to leak from both breaches but likely stop at the danish first?

[exotic shale]

this is a very small discharge. Hundreds of times smaller that the simultaneous discharge on the same pipe 70km downstream. Considering that the hole was about half a square meter it's nontrivial to explain why the discharge was so small. My current theory is that the established water currents propelled by the rising bubbles at NS2D caused a "venturi effect", lowering the static pressure at the southern outlet far below the 7,5 bars. This theory is also supported by the fact that the NS2S leak surged once the southern leak collapsed. After that, NS2S continued to leak for 13 days.

[stone wadi]

The water current in the pipe?

The gas flow to ns2d could easy suck in water at ns2s
Though that would likely collaps the flow.
Half a m² might well be a too large hole to do that though

[exotic shale]

The theory says the southern pipe segment (greifswald-NS2D) would empty out 19 times faster since it's a little more than 7 times shorter. (7.1^1.5) All leaked gas from NS2A after late morning on September 26 came form the segment from Russia. However even after NS2A was opened again 70 km north. most of the gas (> 95%) BYPASSED the 0.5 square meter hole and leaked at NS2D. The drone footage (bot mine and Tronds which I have access to) seem to show that there bipe is broken at the northern end of the trench at NS2D -but nothing seems ot have leaked there either -again supporting the venturi effect.

[exotic shale]

No, water outside of the pipe. I'm hypotesising that the water flowing by the opening is causing a pressure drop "sucking" out the gas at the blace where it broke first. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venturi_effect

[stone wadi]

Eh?
That is not how the Venturi effect works
You are more likely to have the gas having an established flow sucking in water at a smaller hole than what you sugget,
You would have to force water past the pipe opening at a rather high speed for your idea to work (iirc)

[stray iris]

can i just quickly interject and ask: so what is the static water pressure supposed to be at that exact depth, where the 0.5 sq/m hole was situated? since surely its the difference in pressure between the gas and the water? (not the absolute pressure of the gas)

also could the debris kicked up by the explosion have resulted in some 'gulping up' or 'sucking up' of denser mud / seabed sediments into the pipe, alone with alternating pockets of water / gas?

(since the viscocity of mud is different to water, and might include some sort of debris too, like sections of exploded metal pipe, causing some constriction)

these factors ^^ already considered / accounted for?

[eager moss]

That is about the sequence of events - the pressure drop at the German landfall wasn't reported until several hours later in the morning on 26th. The discharge of gas at all of the breaches is determined by the pressure differential between the gas and the external hydrostatic pressure and the size of the breach.

[exotic shale]

The water depth at NS2S is 79 meters, so ambient pressure is 8.9 bars (or 7.9 bars overpressure as often reported) . I don't know at which point water and mud started to enter into the pipe but I'd be surprised if that was before the very end of the leaking phase.

[exotic shale]

correct. Only the landfall stations have valves, and pressure was only measured at the landfall stations. In the case of NS2 (which we discuss here) the leak was not known to the NS2 management untillthe Russian landfall station called the swiss headoffice at 8AM on Sept 26. Emergency systems depended on western software which had been withdrawn by suppliers afraid of sanctions.

[exotic shale]

No, there is no movement of the pipeline here. The meandering in the image is an artifact of the transponder, which is towed 120 meters behind our boat, is moving up and down as a result of surface waves making boat speed unstable.

[eager moss]

Gas discharge is determined by pressure differentials (between the gas pressure in the pipeline and the external hydrostatic pressure) and the size of the breach; the water depth at both NS2D and NS2S are much the same. The discharged gas rises because of the buoyancy of the gas in water; it doesn't create a reduced pressure at the outlet and 'suck out' more gas. The discharge at NS2S is not analogous to a venturi.

[velvet rain]

Hey everyone, I'd like to remind you all to back up these numbers and facts with sources, whenever possible.

This server thrives on the open source nature of the topics involved and proper sourcing is an integral part of that.

[eager moss]

The meandering of the pipeline is not the indicator that the pipeline has moved northwards; it is the very clear impression left in the seabed of the location of the pipeline prior to the explosion. I sought the 'second opinion' of an experienced surveyor who also has experience of geophysical surveys on and for pipelines. I suggest you seek the advice of someone with experience in reading side scan records of pipeline surveys.

[eager moss]

Can you explain/provide the available evidence that the NS2A-S leak "surged" and that it continued for 13 days ?

[exotic shale]

The NS2D site has a trench dug 12 meters deep in what appears to be limbstone, maybe a chalky porous kind, but still. I believe there was enormous forces. I think the water current around the opening was very fast maybe 30-40 meters per second. The height of the water plume suggests similar speeds at surface. I'm not sure about all of the physics here, but IF I'm right about the speed of the water, then I think the pressure was down to just 1 or two bars. What else could have accellerated the water if it wasn't the pressure gradient? I'm not saying I'm dead certain about this but the water currents following a rising bubble stream is a well known phenomenon and Bernoullis principle should be applicable here I think.

[exotic shale]

The Swedish coast guard mede daily flights and documented ther observations here: https://www.kustbevakningen.se/nyheter/kustbevakningens-roll-i-anslutning-till-de-lackande-gasledningarna/

[eager moss]

I've explained that the gas rises because of buoyancy; I provided estimates of the gas expansion after discharge some months ago; the gas expands as it rises because of the decreasing hydrostatic pressure and as a result the rate at which it rises increases.

[eager moss]

thank you; so the NS2A-D stopped leaking by 1st October and the NS2A-S continued until 13 October

[exotic shale]

We haven't published anything yet since our fluid dynamics modeling is not complete, but to conceptually explain the geometry of the NS2D site mapped out by Michael Kobs above, I think a "suction" by a very strong water current is a strong candidate. The water would come down at the edges of the trench and then turn upwards at the middle, following the gas upward.

The geometry of NS2D above is assembled from our depth sonar scanning, our side scan sonar images, my own drone footage and the drone footage of Trond Larsen of Blue Eye Robotics. I traded rights to publish their footage in return for my footage. It was owned by a media consortium and I communicated mainly with Danish TV2.

[eager moss]

The movement of the sea water towards the breach caused by the rising gas is not in question; we could see evidence for this many months ago from the ROV survey performed at NS1 by Blueye where it can be seen that the 'air lift' created by the buoyant gas was sufficient to create small channels in the surrounding seabed near the breach. However, to suggest that this results in a reduction in water pressure far below hydrostatic pressure is not realistic.

[exotic shale]

If the flow of water is "free" and speed was 44 m/s, the pressure would be close to zero. That's what Bernolli says, and it's the only way I can explain the observations. Can you come up with a better explanation?

[eager moss]

Yes; the explanation is that the seabed 'excavation' is caused by the "air-lift" effect of the buoyant gas and a gas jet during the early stages of gas discharge. Air-lifts are a conventional method of localised marine excavation which are usually contained within a pipe so that the excavation can be directed and so that the discharge can be controlled; but the principle is the same when it is in open water such as in this case. The other cause of excavation in this case is the impact of the discharging gas which will be as a 'jet' due to the high pressure of the gas during the early stages. There is a combination of a jet force and the buoyancy force causing seabed excavation.

Think of a very stiff hose pipe cleaning a pond 😂

[eager moss]

I've now translated all of these reports. It's apparent that the NS2A-S leak reduced on 29th September but there is no mention of a "surge" in the leak at this location. From where do you get the information that the leak at NS2A-D "collapsed" and there was a subsequent "surge" in the leak at NS2A-S ?

[exotic shale]

here, on Monday 7 days after the explosions and after all major leaks had stopped.

[exotic shale]

I agree there are these two different effects, and I'm speculating now that the airlift effect had a greater effect on the seabed. I'm not even sure anymore if the breakup of the pipeline in pieces flying long distances was mainly caused by the trust from a diverted gas-flow or if it was mainly caused by the fast water currents.

[stone wadi]

I have yet to see any info about the pressure on the Russian station, I looked but it was a while ago

[stone wadi]

you really need to check your ideas of underwater flow, the surface plume, and Bernoullis principle someone actually working in the field of hydrodynamics.

My thoughts:

1. The speed of the water at the pipeline opening has little to nothing to do with the surface speed.
2. Given that we are talking about an expanding gas the water will if anything be forced away from the openings.
3. Water is damn heavy and creating a movement at the speed you are talking about is likely nearly impossible for any significant volume.
4. The plume on the surface is not water. It's water mixed with gas and the gas bubbles will lift water significantly higher than if it was just water.
5. The stream of bubbles will pick up water during its whole ascent so you will have the upplift effect like Seva mentioned the water will have basically the same vertical circular current as in a hail cloud.
6. Nether the Bernoullis nor Venturi principles are applicable to this excepth so far as the gas bubbles accelerated as the ascended (which would have little effect on the seabed) and through Torricelli's law(if applicable to compressed gasses) to determine how fast the pipeline emptied

Also I am unsure if you even can even have limestone (except during formation) that close to the seabed

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-the-seabed-sediments-Data-source-Geological-Survey-of-Denmark-and-Greenland_fig1_293241156

It's significantly more likely that the seabed is just mud, clay, and sand all the way to the bedrock

As for the bedrock Bornholm do have some limestone, but that is less then a meter thick under 100m of shale

https://paleoarchive.com/literature/Gry1960-GeologyBornholm.pdf

You need to get yourself to your local university and visit the geology and fluid dynamics departments and check your ideas with peaple that can actually say if they are even possible
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/A-Bedrock-geology-map-of-the-Swedish-sector-of-the-Baltic-Sea-modified-from-Sopher-et-al_fig3_298431513

[stone wadi]

their seem to exist a layer of arenaceous chalk in Hanö bay basain
but that is at a depth of 650meter

[stone wadi]

@velvet rain about #1072947857654554624 message
A area close to whare the explosions happened was a active military dumping ground after ww2 so their are a large amount of mustard gas shells there
https://robindesbois.org/en/gaz-et-gaz-nord-stream-et-vieilles-munitions-chimiques/
Its still a work hazard for fishermen
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/220415.pdf

[eager moss]

I noted the comment when I translated the document - that the turbulence observed on 3rd October was larger than the turbulence observed the previous day. I take it that this is what you refer to as a ‘surge’; but it’s an unreasonable extrapolation to equate ‘larger than the previous day’ to a ‘surge’ that is coincident with a ‘collapse’ of the breach at NS2A-D four days earlier.
The reported observations are subject to both human and physical factors. The observations are an indication but shouldn’t be taken as measures of magnitude. It would be better to try to understand the available information, in its context and with it's limitations, rather than interpret that information to support a preferred theory.

[eager moss]

I would seriously suggest that you reconsider the 'fast water currents' theory as a mechanism for either destroying the pipeline or moving the pipe segments long distances. Apart from my earlier comments regarding the very high water speeds you suggest (44m/s !), perhaps consider that the submerged mass of the pipe is almost half a Tonne per metre when gas filled and almost 2 Tonne per metre when water filled. It's also the case that the water movement would be towards the damaged pipeline not away from it.

An obvious question that arises is if the mechanism that is being proposed applies to NS2A-D, how does it apply to the more significant destruction at NS1 A & B locations ? Why would it not also apply to those locations ?

[exotic shale]

A major reason for my venturi hypothesis is that the trenches in the NS1 ruptures all extend about 12 meters behind the open ends. It's similar to NS2D although the open ends are closer to each other at NS2D so there is more interaction between the outflow of the two ends. I'm speculating that water was rushing down a few meters away from the opening (to fill the low pressure volume), and then turned upwards, only slightly pushed in the original direction of the outflowing gas. The only thing I have been able to determine with confidence is the initial massflow of 18 tonnes/second at 50 bars and sonic speed (400 m/s) (with assumption of initial pressure 164 bars). This is fairly easy to compute since the flow is compute since the flow was "choked" , i e limited by the speed of sound out of the opening. Once the speed of the outflow goes below sonic speed it's important to understand what's going on with the water around the opening to set a realistic boundary condition for the simulation of the gas flow.

[civic rapids]

What about a scale model? Aquarium, short pipe that can be capped and pressurised, Schrader valve to pressurise, bag of sand for substrate. Some means to puncture pipe and record resulting reaction, not sure about replicating an explosion to puncture, but something else that would allow at least observation of how the substrate is affected by the escaping air

[strange bane]

I was under the impression that the Swedish/Danes had removed a substantial affected portion of the pipelines to carry out investigations?

[exotic shale]

good idea

[exotic shale]

yes, several sections are gone at NS1D and NS1S, but only about 3 meters is gone at NS2D and no pipe segments have been removed at NS2S.

[exotic shale]

I have reached out to geologists who have surveyed the area but I guess they're on vacation. I'll report when I have the answer. It's white anyway.

[stone wadi]

no one thought about taking a sample of that to identify what it might be?

[stone wadi]

NS1 ruptures all extend about 12 meters behind the open ends
that would be from ether the gas expanding in all direction or water being sucked in by the rising gas.

but it could also be done during the investegations

[stone wadi]

you don't happen to have the images and video taken on some webpage in its entirerty?

hm
https://boskalis.com/about-us/projects/trench-dredging-gas-pipeline-nord-stream?p=4

[exotic shale]

most of it is found if you folllow the links in my substack post on the expedition. I haven't published Trond's footage yet.

[stone wadi]

you should put that substack link in your profile

what might this be at 25 seconds in

did we end up establishing that methan water ice could not form under ambient seabottom pressures and temperatures?

[exotic shale]

I just got a response from Martin Jakobsson, a marine geologist who has studied the Baltic a lot. His first impression was that it's "glacial clay". https://www.su.se/profiles/mjako-1.182183

[eager moss]

The undermining of the seabed beneath the pipeline ends is what would be expected; the destruction of the NS1 pipelines will have involved violent movement of the pipeline since it is unrestrained when sitting on the seabed. This disturbance to the seabed will have resulted in seabed instability since the seabed is “mud” (a combination of sand, silt and clay particles). The gas discharge will have removed some of the soil due to the airlift effect I’ve discussed previously. Further undermining of the disturbed seabed could have occurred as a consequence of the inflowing sea water; as I wrote yesterday, there is evidence for this specifically at the NS1 sites from the Blueye survey many months ago.

The calculation of gas discharge based on assuming that it is ‘choked’ by the speed of sound will have assumed that the velocity of gas discharge is at the speed of sound; so this is an assumption (or input) to the calculation not a result from the calculation. This is clear in the attachment to your Substack article. The attachment makes clear that there is a lot of uncertainty in the calculations but you are now presenting the results as factual; this could be misleading for those who have not read the article and attachments.
Suggesting that the gas discharge through a full bore rupture on a 48-inch diameter pipeline will be at the speed of sound may be the reason you have such high expectations for gas discharge rates, sea water movement etc. The opening of choke valves from a fully closed position can have gas moving at high speeds when it is just ‘cracked open’ (which can cause whistling) but not when the valve has been partly opened and not when fully open.

I suggest we now need to agree to disagree on these speculative theories.

[eager moss]

The geology of the Baltic is described in the Nordstream project documentation and is based upon the surveys and studies that were performed during the project engineering phase. In the region of NS1 and NS2 ruptures there is "post glacial mud" overlying "glacial clay". The underlying bedrock is "cretaceous chalk and limestones". Map GE-1 and GE-2 in the documentation apply. The post glacial mud forms clumps when broken free and shallow channels can have vertical walls because the compacted mud is fairly cohesive ('mud' is silt, sand and clay).

[exotic shale]

The draft paper by me and my son Aron which I linked in my substack article was reviewed by prof. Eric Dunham at Stanford University. Eric is helping the team of seismologists trying to explain the seismic signal. I also had a conference call with him about it. Eric is helping the team of seismologists led by Björn Lund to do fluid dynamic simulations so he was familiar with Nord Stream and could immediately confirm the correctness of our calculations. The problem is similar to that of seismic airguns, and in that context, Eric's team has verified the model of choked flow experimentally with a vertical array of hydrophones. The assumption of choked flow is not disputed.

[stray iris]

Ok so I have a new question: how to the outcomes of these theories impact / lead to gathering of evidence as to whom was responsible? Or is it more like: we are establishing that this can only have been caused by X sorts of interference? (for example some minimum required quantity of explosives, and placed in such a way etc?)

[velvet rain]

The focus should be on what we can know using open sources, less so on speculation about who is responsible.

[stone wadi]

Would the halocline interfere with sonar propagation and if so do the Baltic have a one that is pronounced enough?

[exotic shale]

It's strong and well known to make submarine detection difficult, especially in the summer. Side scan sonar imaging must be done with the transponder submerged into the saline bottom layer starting at 50-60 meters. Advanced sonar surveys employ SVP to compensate for distortion but you still have dark areas which you can't see at all on echoes. Surface water is almost fresh and bottom about 1.2%. When I filmed in end of May, bottom was +10C, surface was +13, and in between it was +5C. In October the bottom was +12C at northern explosion sites.

[stone wadi]

Make's Hersh's wild ideas even more impossible than

[eager moss]

From the Nordstream project

there was a discussion some months ago about the subject

[stone wadi]

How static is the layers?

[eager moss]

Good question - the variabilty from summer to winter is shown in the 2 smaller graphs on the chart.

which are a good indication

the lower than normal salinity / density for sea water is the consequence of all the freshwater that enters the sea and the fact that tidal interchange with the North Sea can be both infrequent and of limited exchange; there were some papers on the subject posted earlier.

[stone wadi]

yeah
IIRC I posted something about the salinity exchange and how its not at all regular

[exotic shale]

I received today from the Swedish coast guard. what I thought contained the pressure drop curves. It was a dissapointment. The drop curves start after the pressure already dropped. But at least we now know for sure that the initial pressure in both NS1 lines was 165 bars. Here's the doc https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/sf3upfrr781x8zytn3eet/Nord-stream-1-o-2-tryckfall-sammanst-llt-202-3-08-09.xlsx?rlkey=z7qnkyi8xx8wm79vcu05gni1a&dl=0

[stone wadi]

Hm
First data from the russin landfall I have seen
Is the ns2b pressure still 50?

[exotic shale]

Yes it is. NS2P informed has informed me directly about that.

[hushed karma]

Significant in this original post is the picture where more craters was shown. I had not seen that before , or missed it. The blow out of the two lateral ends from pipe failure does make it plausible that there might be explosive traces found in the middle area. That made me wonder which crater was chosen to take samples of for remnants of explosive materials. Is there any info on available ?

You also mentioned an inner and outer weld on the pipeline, and there might be no inner weld on the lateral ends where the pipeline broke ? Could that be a known factor of why this spot for sabotage was chosen. I will dive in to the construction reports for that. But some might know ore can find it elsewhere.

[exotic shale]

My understanding is that the Swedish investigation lifted several pipe segments to Belos and collected two containers of other debris and then did sampling for explosive testing on the collected materials. I don't know if they did any sediment samples. I decided to only take samples next to the explosion on the depressurized NS2A pipeline, but that didn't work either.

[exotic shale]

The 4 segment pre-welding and one-sided final welds is something I was told by a contractor who participated in the construction process. I haven't read through the documentation or got any other open source confirmation yet.

[hushed karma]

Might be interesting to dive into. I try to get me some time to do that in the construction manual i downloaded some time ago. I went thru that. But cannot remember anything mentioned about that inner weld on some spots. Looks like i got something to do 😅

[limber hinge]

Upstream we had briefly discussed the vulnerabilities of undersea infrastructure including fo cables..

In the meantime I came across the below video describing a satellite relay station in Svalbard. It mentions that the station relys upon a fo cable for operation.
Not directly NS related but may be of interest for some.

https://youtu.be/7Hp8ZP0lkeY

[exotic shale]

I called up the Nord Stream 2 corporation to check the 4x4 weld claim and it turns out it was false. The pipe sections were welded 2 by 2 in th etwo sided process. That means every second weld was one-sided and not every fourth as I was told. Nord Stream 1 used the exact same process.

[hushed karma]

That might confirms that the explosives were placed by some that had this information at hand ? One wel placed charge and 2 sections would blow out in length. That made it more successful and the leak not that easy or fast to repair. Does this kind of result occur on all blast sites ?

[exotic shale]

I don't think that knowledge was important. Any bomb placement would have caused similar results given the pressure, 23 sections blew off at NS1B, 20 and NS1A and 5 at NS2D. The smaller number of disconnected pipe sections at NS2D was likely due to the lower pressure (103 vs 165 bars), and only that.

[raven charm]

New articles in German media. Ukraine via Andromeda is still the main suspect:
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/nord-stream-taeter-andromeda-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

• "Before and after the explosions in the Baltic Sea, the group is said to have been in Ukraine. This was indicated by technical data that the investigators were able to evaluate."
• "In January, the Federal Criminal Police Office then had the 15-meter boat searched. Investigators found traces of explosives on the table below deck. Remnants of the same explosives were also found in the tubes on the seabed."

[little zinc]

Spiegel also has an extensive article on this:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-anschlag-in-der-ostsee-die-spuren-fuehren-in-eine-richtung-in-die-ukraine-a-befcbfbb-b1cd-4912-aeaa-56bef4dd8047 (archived: https://archive.ph/Zm5pE)

[dire canyon]

In English: https://x.com/arictoler/status/1695197535600525716

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

Spiegel just put out a (very) long read on Ukrainian links to the Nord Stream explosion. Some new nuggets of information peppered throughout, including signals intelligence into Valery Kolesnik, the Ukrainian soldier who's been tied to the sabotage.
https://t.co/HjhMdLbnY1

Twitter · Aug 25, 2023, 10:12 PM

[strange bane]

I have to note they fail to make any mention to Diana B, it’s a very interesting article, but I struggle to understand why it isn’t included for context.

Neglecting to mention that the second person involved in the company is a collaborator with Russia, and lives there, is an odd choice.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/nord-stream-taeter-andromeda-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

Another new article by ZDF also.

[inner sandal]

Discussing whether the Andromeda was engaged in a Russian false flag operation, Spiegel says:

"According to Kiesewetter, it is entirely in the Russian manner to carry out such an operation perfectly and to let the tracks lead to Kiev.

"Many other secret service experts, on the other hand, consider it very unlikely that the mostly down-to-earth Russian agents, whose assassinations have been uncovered in recent years, could carry out such a complex deception maneuver flawlessly."

Any thoughts on Russia's capabilities or inclinations? Russia has been suspected of blowing up land-based pipelines before, but that's not really comparable.

Spiegel also says:

"Agents suspect another, simpler reason for the clear presence of the Russian Navy in the Baltic Sea last late summer: Moscow, like the Dutch and the CIA, did not remain unaware of the plans to attack Nord Stream. The ships patrolled the pipeline to protect it from the anticipated sabotage."

But the ships were clearly NOT just patrolling the pipeline. They went directly to the spot where three of the explosions would shortly occur. That would suggest they had intelligence info but if so it was a very quick inspection.

[stark palm]

And afterwards decided to publically state that their ships were nowhere near the pipeline

[inner sandal]

Spiegel says Andromeda had Garmin “GPS Map 721” GPS system. Anyone familiar with it? Presumably German investigators used data stored on this to track the boat's route.

Spiegel also says explosives were detected "on the toilet" in the boat, as well as on the table. This is weird.

[topaz mortar]

Re: False Flag, this is generally discounted now, sorry.

"Many believed the Kremlin to be the mastermind behind the NS pipeline attack . Now investigators largely rule out Russian involvement"

https://n-tv.de/politik/Bericht-Nord-Stream-Saboteure-flohen-in-die-Ukraine-article24350729.html

[inner sandal]

Andromeda crew returned the boat without cleaning it. I'm wondering if the owner had told them not to bother. Spiegel says it was the last hire before the boat was brought on land for storage and maintenance

[inner sandal]

I agree the false flag theory is unlikely but in my view we don't have enough info to discount it entirely. It could be discounted if we got a sensible explanation of what the Russian ships were doing.

[raven charm]

What makes a false flag unlikely for me is the source that the Dutch had in Ukraine. This same source

1. warned about the original plan
2. gave hints to the Andromeda after execution of the plan
   For it to be a false flag, this source would have to be either a Russian agent to frame Ukraine, or the Russians knew of this plan and then copied it. Both options sound a bit too convoluted in my opinion.

[stone wadi]

would still be a really embarrassing mistake for any professional outfit

do we have an actuall dutch statement on this?
Months before the attack, Dutch military intelligence and the CIA had warned of a Ukrainian sabotage commando and precisely the scenario. In Berlin, the warnings were considered irrelevant after the originally assumed time for an attack had passed.

seriously?
whare they unable to find a less reliable way to identify the location for someone than IP adresses?
According to the report, experts from the Federal Criminal Police Office and the Federal Police come to the conclusion through a data analysis of IP addresses, among other things, that the suspects were in Ukraine before and after the act of sabotage and communicated from there. According to security circles, the picture that this evaluation produced is fairly clear.

also the trukstream gas pipelines would make signifciantly more sense by Ukreine to attack given that it is actually still active

[strange bane]

The MIVD declined to comment.

[stone wadi]

would they be expected to comment on anything?

[strange bane]

And Ollongren only said she had “seen the news”

[strange bane]

No, they aren’t publicity shy when they catch a foreign country with their pants down, but they don’t really comment on their own intelligence gathering.

[stone wadi]

I was more thinking that would they even comment if something like that was compleatly made up?
(I gues not as that would demonstrate when peaple guessed correctly)

[lean dock]

without the wall and in english language: https://www.spiegel.de/international/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778

[strange bane]

Already been posted.

[lean dock]

ah, via aric's tweet, i see. thanks.

[strange bane]

No problem 🙂

[stone wadi]

Are Der Spiegel taken especially serious in Germany?

[summer vine]

Yes. Though that entire article can be summed up as "German investigators are sure it was Ukrainians, but we can't yet tell you why"

which kinda makes it hard to draw any conclusions from.

[raw nexus]

Eiertanz

[little zinc]

They are a serious outfit, bellingcat worked together with them e.g.

[hushed bay]

Yup they're legit

[hushed karma]

I still do not by this German version of that story. If i was to blame Ukraine for the purpose of dividing the support to Ukraine, i send the perps also noticeable to that country and from there to that boat. Taking still in account that proven Russian lady within that group. For me this is far to obvious to be missed and ignored.

[raw nexus]

Why should they try to divide the support of the Ukraine?

[summer vine]

I don't really buy the false flag theory either. Truth is, we just don't know. Maybe we'll never know.

[lean dock]

i still would say, we should not just look at state actors.

with all the information accumulated i also think we will known much more at some point, the question is when.

[raven charm]

Law enforcement agencies from multiple countries leaked that they are pretty sure who did it and how it was done. Direct interference in these investigations by governments would be political suicide. We will get indictments by the prosecution sooner or later, pretty sure about that.

[lean dock]

yeah, but it is not completely clear, that they actually know who was behind it, and also this could have more layers than we think.

an important point is imo, that we should not just focus on state actors, as it is - from my perspective oddly - done all the time. nothing we know about so far is out of the reach of e.g. some oligarchs, in particular those in the gas or pipeline business themselves, also.
and that might also mean, that it is possible that the goal was not even primarily political, and it might also lead to pretty unexpected people behind it all.

[nimble gull]

Seems unlikely before the end of the war. EDIT: Or at the very least, I don't see any need for them to rush it. There's no result with good political outcomes, so they'll likely wait for as long as they can.

[raven charm]

Agree with the possible non-state actor. The attack did not make a lot of sense, especially at that time with all pipes being shut down indefinitely. I find a political involvement on a higher level pretty unlikely. But a hardline, less informed faction, probably still connected to the military, is definitely possible.

[strange bane]

r.e. This element, I don’t see a section on the specs of it that says it has an S-VDR.

All chart plotters (and electronic chart displays) will have the ability to mark down on your unit the route/passage plan you wish to take.

Whilst they may have been able to do something hardware wise with the unit itself, perhaps the routes they have are just the routes that were plugged into the unit.

So not exactly a record of what the boat did exactly, but just a record of the route they planned to take.

[nimble gull]

Funny how various media outlets dropped glib mentions of birthdays and chocolate but never took that any further…

[inner sandal]

Is it likely that the system would record the date and time when a particular route had been plotted?

[strange bane]

Yea, it should have the day it was created and presumably the day it was last used.

[pure vine]

interesting points raised wrt spiegel article

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1695361004308160548?s=20

Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK)

If we look at the weather and specifically the waves for the time period, the only dates with relatively calm water for a dive off the Andromeda are the 9th and 22nd - 24th September.

This graph from ZDF visualizes it nicely:

Likes

104

Twitter · Aug 26, 2023, 9:02 AM

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1695361006136901839?s=20

Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK)

The 22nd - 24th September can now easily be ruled out as this is after the Andromeda returned to Germany.

This leaves the 9th, which is the exact same time as when the Minerva Julie was directly above the blast sites.

Likes

109

Twitter · Aug 26, 2023, 9:02 AM

another point to consider: the article states it would take about 3 hours decompression, assuming each dive would require it we're talking 9 hours decompression+travel times

On underwater images of Nord Stream 1, Pfeiffer identified craters that he believes were created by large amounts of explosives detonating next to the pipeline. Investigators, though, think that a total of less than 100 kilograms of explosives were used and that the sudden release of the highly pressurized natural gas caused much of the damage.

Not far from the long stretches of destroyed pipes belonging to Nord Stream 1, the A pipe of Nord Stream 2 was attacked a second time – the same line that had already been severed 17 hours earlier further to the south. The pipe tore open along a length of approximately 100 meters. A so-called "cutter charge" was likely used, directly over a welded joint. Pfeiffer believes that just eight to 12 kilograms of octogen would have been necessary for such a detonation.

this could be plausibly modelled too

[raw nexus]

https://youtu.be/auzEORCxVu8?feature=shared 🚨

[inner sandal]

Anyone know the original source of this wave height data?

Weather records for Christiansø, only 25–30 km from the sabotage area, show four days of light wind on September 9-12. If diving was possible on Sept 9 it should also have been possible for the next three days.

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@2623169/historic?month=9&year=2022

The wind picked up on September 13 and remained at Force 5 until the evening of September 16. Winds above Force 4 are generally considered unsuitable for open-sea diving.

https://www.bsac.com/safety/safe-diving-guide/seamanship/#article-220

[nimble gull]

From Danish weather service (from here). Unsure where the Bornholm station is or if there are multiple, but it should give an indication. Blue is average, Red/white circle is highest 10 min avg, Red is highest gust. Unit is m/s

Not wave height as such, but I'm sure that's to be found somewhere.

Danes apprently have no wave height data (at least not easily found by 5 mins of googling) on or around Bornholm. Only west coast stations.

Swedes gather data i Ystad and Simrishamn, relatively close but on the other side of Bornholm. Sassnitz also relatively close. Trying to find archived data.

Correction, none of those stations measure waves, just sea water level.

[strange bane]

Yea, you need to find an ODAS/weather buoy.

[nimble gull]

I'm sure one of you have done this already hehe

Closest swedish one is faaar away (yellow dot, red is not operational).

Danish weather site seem to explain it's modelled off wind + satellite data but not really measured except on the west coast.

My German (and Polish) is too bad to even know where to start looking. 🤷‍♂️

[strange bane]

The alternative to this is trying to find a navtex archive of the weather

We know it's in the Southern Baltic met area (can't reference map because it's taken from a file I have)

2022-09-26 20:20:44(LV) AREA: J
ZCZC JE42
220926 UTC SEP
BALTIC SEA WEATHERFORECAST
NEAR GALE WARNING
SKAGERRAK, KATTEGAT, SEA OF BOTHNIA

WEATHER SUMMARY:
L OVER NORWEGIAN SEA AND THE NORTH SEA.

FORECAST VALID 24 HOURS (WIND SCALE IN METERS PER SECOND)

SKAGERRAK
S 10-15. IN E-PART FM EVENING 9-13. IN W-PART, FM EVENING W 5-10, FM TUESDAY MORNING VRB 1-5. TEMPO RAIN WITH MOD VIS.

KATTEGAT
S 10-15, FM EVENING 9-13. TUESDAY SE. TEMPO RAIN WITH MOD VIS.

LAKE VAENERN
SE 6-11. TUESDAY AFTERNOON E. RAIN WITH MOD VIS.

THE SOUND AND THE BELTS AND WESTERN BALTIC S 9-13. TUESDAY MORNING 5-10, FM NOON TOWARDS DANISH SIDE W 2-6. TEMPO RAIN WITH MOD VIS.

SOUTHERN BALTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN BALTIC
S-SW 7-11. TUESDAY MORNING SE. MAINLY GOOD VIS, SHWRS.

CENTRAL BALTIC AND NORTHERN BALTIC
S 7-11, IN E-PART AT FIRST 9-13. TUESDAY MORNING SE, FM NOON 9-13. SHWRS WITH LOC MOD VIS AND RISK OF THUNDER.

GULF OF RIGA AND GULF OF FINLAND
SE 5-10. TUESDAY AFTERNOON E-SE 8-12. MAINLY GOOD VIS.

SEA OF AALAND AND ARCHIPELAGO SEA
SE 8-12. OVERNIGHT 5-10. SHWRS WITH LOC MOD VIS AND RISK OF THUNDER.

SOUTHERN SEA OF BOTHNIA AND NORTHERN SEA OF BOTHNIA SE 8-12, INCR 10-15. TUESDAY MORNING 8-12. MAINLY GOOD VIS, SHWRS.

THE QUARK AND BAY OF BOTHNIA
E-SE 5-9. TUESDAY NOON E. GOOD VIS.
NNNN

http://navtex.lv/

[nimble gull]

Better wind data from Sept 2022 from Nexø Vest, the weather station closest to the sites on Bornholm's southeast coast. https://www.dmi.dk/friedata/observationer/

[strange bane]

Marine forecast issued on the evening of the incidents.

Could get the marine forecasts for each day from the 9th to the 26th.

[nimble gull]

By wind alone it looks like 9-13th is mild, 17-26 more windy but consistently under 10 m/s

[nimble gull]

"S-SW 7-11" means south-southwesterly 7-11 m/s? And this is day before forecast?

[strange bane]

S-SW 7-11 means S-SWly Beaufort Force 7 - 11.

Actually no, let me check.

They should be issuing it in beaufort, but I'll check the regs to see if they do.

[nimble gull]

That maxes at 12 right? There's "10-15" in there.

Doesn't seem to match the "near gale warning"

[strange bane]

Yea, it is just meters so, that's odd, but I suppose it's mentioned in the navigational publications.

[nimble gull]

Anyone's german good enough to see if there's wave height data from anywhere closeby?

@strange bane based on your experience, hypothetically, at what wind speed would you consider sailing in those waters dangerous/impossible?

[strange bane]

Most countries issue small craft warnings at Force 6 or so, 22 knots.

(also, it's not in m/s, it's in knots, just for clarity, just clicked in my head)

[nimble gull]

Ok, so corresponding to Beaufort Scale level 3 or "Gentle Breeze" for the 9th. Seems to match the <5 m/s from Nexø

Going off of nothing except the conversion tables on the Beaufort Scale wikipedia heh 🤷‍♂️ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Modern_scale

[strange bane]

Yea, from all the ones I've went through so far

The weather is quite dead.

Okay, so navtex.lv didn't catalogue a couple days.

I'll try the others to fill in the other days.

[nimble gull]

Archived German data if anyone is proficient to look through. Beyond me. That seems to be the source for the graph in Oliver's tweet. https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/klimadatendeutschland/klarchivtagmonat.html

[eager moss]

I posted the wind data from Bornholm for September 2022 some time ago - wind strength and direction shown here. Direction is important because the fetch from north south and west is very short (so won't generate substantial wave heights); also Bornholm shelters the NS1 sites from westerlies reducing the fetch length significantly. Bornholm has little impact on the general wind conditions in the sea just a few kilometres away, it's just too small.

I also posted the wind and wave roses which clearly show the predominant wind directions at the NS1 sites and also confirm that the wave heights are fetch-limited. Same can be found from the wave & wind roses at the NS2A-D rupture location which i previously posted.

[strange bane]

On the wind speed, you notice that the daily range seems to top out at about 20kts, with occasional stronger gusts.

It’s not exactly a heavy swell, those particular days might be slightly less pleasant, but the boat wouldn’t exactly be getting thrown around either.

(Illustration from the Wikipedia article)

There’s a lot of days around 15, so Force 4.

With due respect of course, I think the ZDF graph places a bit too much emphasis on only certain days being suitable.

It suggests any day with a wave height of greater than half a meter is somehow not suitable.

[eager moss]

During the September period, yes. The wind rose shows that the wind speed lies somewhere between 35 and 40 knots around 1% of the time.

[strange bane]

Half a meter waves is Force 2.

Personally, I’d have to say that any day with less than a 2m wave height wouldn’t exactly be a horrible day sailing.

Which is opening up a lot more days for stuff to have been carried out.

[eager moss]

I had a small boat for many years (for fishing and scuba) and been out on the ocean in 20 knots winds; it's not pleasant and I certainly wouldn't be diving in those wind speeds. But again (and it's important) the open ocean is different to an enclosed sea which is what the southern area of the Baltic resembles.

[strange bane]

BSAC’s website says that it’s safe enough to go diving in up to BF4.

https://www.bsac.com/safety/safe-diving-guide/seamanship/#article-220

[eager moss]

The photos of sea state that are used to illustrate the Beaufort scale are okay for a larger vessel but can be misleading for small boats. What is fine when on a large ship is not so good when on a small 10 metre fishing boat.

[strange bane]

Of course

I’m primarily referencing the threshold for when small craft warnings start getting issued.

Which is around 25 knots, force 6 or so.

It would certainly be a no go once you start getting up to that.

But there’s only a couple days within the period where it would be up around that, lots of days where the wave height is only a force 2-3-4, where it wouldn’t be horrible to be out in.

Instead of the suggestion it’s only good to go on the 9th and the 22nd-24th.

The 9th and the 22nd-24th are certainly the ideal days, but there’s other days where it would be a bit of a joke to suggest that they weren’t suitable.

[eager moss]

agreed, the threshold for diving off a 15 metre vessel will extend the available days for diving during September 2022. The question is really 'how many dives were required' and therefore how long would it have taken. The chart that suggests very few days looked unreliable to me, which is why i went looking for better data.

[strange bane]

Basically any day after the 17th is pretty good.

[eager moss]

I'm just a hobby scuba diver but I've been diving in 2.5 metre seas (off a large dive boat); professional divers would be much more capable and resilient.

[strange bane]

https://vxtwitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1695361002110345561

This is the suggested timeline from Spiegel.

So presumably the operation took place between the 7th and 19th.

[eager moss]

that's what it looks like, assuming it was the Andromeda

[strange bane]

To suggest a timeline.

If we assume on its journey out after leaving Wiek, it went north and over the top of Bornholm and did the Northern Charges there first.

Then there is an obvious period of crappy weather, they go into Christiansø to get a bit of shelter, avoid the nasty weather, weather dies down.

They sail out, do the Southern Charge on their way to Kolobrzeg, use that as an opportunity to rest, refuel, resupply (since Christiansø has nothing, they’ve effectively been out at sea for 12 days fuel/food wise), and then head back to return the boat.

The Minerva Julie was around the site from the 6th-13th, for context.

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-minerva-julie-unknowing-submarine

Northern Site*

[eager moss]

It would be interesting to know what other vessels used that area east of Bornholm to drift around whilst waiting for orders in the year prior to September 2022; and of course 'waiting for orders' and serving some other purpose are not mutually exclusive.

[strange bane]

On a “light” ballast voyage back to Russia, perhaps they weren’t ready for them in St. Petersburg.

[eager moss]

It's likely, but it would be interesting to know if the area was commonly used by vessels for this purpose.

[strange bane]

There’s an LNG tanker at this present moment there waiting for orders.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/zoom:8/mmsi:215532000/shipid:6136663

(Not the exact same place, but relatively close enough)

[eager moss]

It would have been a bit inconvenient - the image shows where the drifting vessel crossed the pipelines and the rupture locations

it would have been a good pipeline position fixing survey 🙂

[strange bane]

Done by @pure finch (he posted this before)

[eager moss]

That's where I got the data from which I prepared the image I posted

[strange bane]

Ahh, gotcha.

Sorry, I see how I came across.

I didn’t mean that as a cranky way to reference that Puca made it.

I meant it to reference what I posted was Puca’s work.

[eager moss]

no problem, I should have referenced where i got the data from

[strange bane]

Did you see the pictures from the Cellus?

https://vxtwitter.com/erkperk/status/1686048178603278341

The Minerva Julie was around of course, and it does have a role to be mentioned in this escapade, even for just being around, so you can’t say it is in completely lonely isolated sea, but who knows, the OOW on the Minerva Julie bored out of his mind on watch probably didn’t pay too much attention to a small sail boat.

There is moments when it is more or less on top of the sites, but for a lot of its drifting it is a decent distance away, enough that you’re not gonna be able to make out anything on your binoculars anyways.

[eager moss]

Agreed, those were my thoughts. I should revisit the drifting data and extract the times/dates on the tracks which Puca identified.

[eager moss]

I watched the track of the Minerva Julie again and found that each day the vessel was near the northern sites there wasn't a day when it didn't pass within about 2 kilometres of at least one of the rupture sites at least once and most days it was within a couple of kilometres of at least two out of the three sites.

[inner sandal]

Yes, but Bornhom is further from the sabotage area than Christianso

[strange bane]

The Christiansø light house apparently has a weather station.

[nimble gull]

Don't think that's true. It's on a list of weather stations in 2006 as only measuring Precipitation. It's removed on the 2013 list and doens't show on current maps of weather stations

Can search data from current stations here: https://www.dmi.dk/friedata/observationer/

Three stations on Bornholm, Nexø being the only one on the east side.

[strange bane]

https://weather.plus/observations-weather-station.php?dest=Christianso_061910_synop

Just that the website has no data available

https://geographic.org/global_weather/denmark/christianso_lgt_h_061910_99999.html

As you said, maybe no longer, but who knows.

It’s on some lists and not on others

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisd/v311_2020f/files/hadisd_station_fullinfo_v311_202001p.txt

It’s on a Met Office list from 2020

[nimble gull]

what's the date in the last column?

2003-03-06 for Christiansø

[strange bane]

Hmm

[nimble gull]

Current version of Metoffice list is here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisd/v331_202307p/files/hadisd_station_fullinfo_v331_202301p.txt

Dates different though: 1973-01-01 1997-12-31 for Christiansø.

Presumably those are the years with data(?)

yeah apparently there's no data from that station after 2003. Search 061910 here. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisd/v331_202307p/station_download_0.html

Either way, it's probably fair to say the wind conditions on east coast Bornholm would be similar. it's not a huge body of land.

[limber hinge]

Replaying my broken record here…
It is important when considering Andromeda as a dive platform to take the entirety if the situation into consideration.

What is comfortable sailing conditions is not what is comfortable diving conditions. Sailboats are more stable when moving and the faster the better. When stationary or station keeping they tend to he very UN comfortable, rolly.

Doing day dives and returning to a motel room is different than staying in a bouncy boat, doing one or more dives and returning to a bouncy boat, that would get real old real fast. They were out for a week or so, unhappy crew.

Andromeda was returned untidy but without any noted damage we know of. Dive boats have dedicated tank and equipment retainers with dedicated dive ladders. Andromeda is a charter boat with no amenities for diving, just a big open cockpit for entertaining. Given the number of dives required, and moderate seas, and a tired crew I find it difficult to believe the boat was returned with no damage. It would he expected that a tank or other equipment, unrestrained in the cockpit, would get loose and damage or chip the gelcoat. That kind of thing would be recorded just as if you got a small parking lot dent in a rental car.

When you look at the totality of the Andromeda as a dive platform for these dives, poor weather, ling duration, with a tired crew, with a leas than purpose designed boat, that was returned in pristine condition it seems a very unlikely story.

Andromeda may have had some role in the effort, maybe even a pivotal role, but as a dive platform for this effort, given the totality of the situation, I am far from convinced.

[eager moss]

I did some comparisons for September 2022 of the wind speed recorded at each of the 3 locations on Bornholm ( https://www.dmi.dk/friedata/observationer/ ). Important to note that the reported wind speeds are from anemometers at different elevations so there are adjustment factors to get comparisons at the standard elevation of 10 metres. {Nexø Vest at 23.1 metres, adjustment of 0.88; Hammer Odde Fyr at 7.8 metres, adjustment of 1.04; Airport at 15 metres, adjustment of 0.94.}

[eager moss]

What is clear from the comparison is that the wind speeds recorded at Nexø Vest are consistently lower than those recorded at the other two locations, for both mean and maximum wind speed, and that Hammer Odde Fyr at the northen tip of Bornholm consistently records higher wind speeds than at the other two locations. This is the case for both the periods of higher recorded wind speeds and for the less severe conditions. Direction from which the wind is blowing is reasonably consistent.

[nimble gull]

Still a mystery what the German wave height chart is based on though

[nimble gull]

The Spiegel article made it sound like Andromeda was pretty bruised up to begin with.

[eager moss]

Agreed; there's no indication of the location to which it is intended to be relevant or the source from which the information has been compiled.

[limber hinge]

Wind speed and direction is greatly effected by land masses. In general large land masses will significantly decrease wind speed. The air flow is shaped by the topography. I find from sailing in the Caribbean winds can be effected up to at least 10 miles behind an island. The wind can even display a 180° apparent shift.

Once 10 miles from a big island the speed and direction become more constant and frequently stronger.

This can easily be seen when looking at a wind prediction algorithm such as Windy or Earth. But these algorithms generally ignore smaller islands and land features. As a guess I believe the ignore anything less than 30 to 50 kilometers. But the effects are real for much smaller and even low lying features. For example a wind can tend to follow a water course like a tidal estuary.

[nimble gull]

Winds look pretty consistently westerly (IE bomb sites may get even less "behind" Bornholm). But even without that, from a pure layman's perspective, it's hard to see why the span of "mild weather" couldn't be 9-13th.

Clarification: Westerlies during the windier days of 13th-17th.

[limber hinge]

What I find very frustrating is there seem to be no weather buoys sufficiently near the bomb sites to be relevant. I had assumed the Baltic being small and heavily trafficked in a very technologically advanced area would be brimming with such buoys, to monitor the climate if nothing else. Universities and such. Apparently I am wrong again.

[nimble gull]

"We" have always been told it's an incredibly monitored body of water, at least along the Danish/Swedish waters. Turns out not so much.

Lots of temperature and coastal water level measurements, but not out at sea.

[eager moss]

The discussion was about the availability of wind and/or wave data and the comparison I did was of the three sets of records available from sites on Bornholm Island. That there is variability in the recorded wind strength at these three locations is unsurprising and the island topography and physical location of each anemometer will contribute to this variability. The influence the island may or may not have on winds over water is another matter.

[strange bane]

The archiving of the Navtex issued weather forecasts are quite incomplete towards the start of the period, but are decently comprehensive.

You can see the met forecast issued for the southern Baltic

(Which is the area directly relevant)

The wind speed they are giving is in m/s.

We kinda need to fill in the gaps to say anything conclusive, but for the days we have it’s maxing out at 15 for one day, and mostly in the mid-single digits m/s wind speed.

That sort of wind is force 1 or 2, that’s enough to slightly alter how smoke rises/enough to barely feel it on your face, but it is essentially flat and calm in terms of sea conditions.

[eager moss]

The sources for wind records in the southern Baltic that have been identified are all describing a very similar pattern over the month of September 2022; some variation in magnitude of wind speed but the general conditions and periods when the conditions are more severe are much the same. The absence of reliable wave data is unfortunate but we can sensibly deduce the degree of severity based upon the wind speed and direction and the fact that the fetch from the north, west and south is limited.

[eager moss]

Did we identify/confirm the original source of this graph of daily wave height and to which location it is intended to be relevant ?

[strange bane]

Deutsche Wetterdienst, German Weather Service.

[limber hinge]

Sara,
Perhaps I am confused but this graphic is for Swell Height in Meters, no?
I ask because of your lower comment, which I thought was clarifying this chart as wind speed.

[strange bane]

It’s swell height, yes.

I raised the question because the wind speeds seem awfully low for there much of a wave at all.

[limber hinge]

Yes, weather forecasts, bah!
Sitting here watching my boat. We have a bit of wind due an Atlantic hurricane. Predicted wind from the N yesterday PM. Wind IS from the SSW.

Records of actual observations are MUCH better than predictions.

But also Burnholm is big enough that their winds may be significantly less, maybe up to 30%, less than seen off shore. I would not expect Burnholm to create much of a Lee, it is not very high.

But obviously conjecture.

Screen shots from today's forecast.

Upper image is wave height and direction
Lower image is wind strength and direction

[little zinc]

i cant find a real archive from the DWD, only the forecast of & current wave height (click on ostsee on the left dropdown). maybe emailing them would be the best way https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/seegangskarten/seegangskarten.html

[eager moss]

The DWD publishes wave data as combined wind-wave and swell wave. This could partly explain why there are days when the wave heights appear large in comparison to the wind speed at the time. Another explanation is that the 'DWD graph' is a wave height representing an entire day, in intervals of 0.5 metres, so it could also be the case that the worst case for each day is being shown whilst we can see from the wind records that the wind speed varies a lot over the course of the day. The wind direction dances around a lot from 23rd onwards (when wind speed is very low) whilst a sustained wind speed and direction is required to generate sea waves; so it could be mostly swell and not wind-waves during this period.

[exotic shale]

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/celcere3rvqaizdqha8wq/IMG_9505full.jpg?rlkey=n1vu3rpfi95livoltno6c53xm&dl=0

I received this original iphone 12 mini picture from Captain Helge Jürgensen who photographed the NS1B explosion at 1912LT, 8 minutes after the blast.

The meta data is preserved and when I load it into my iPhone photo app it reveals a 35-mm equivalent focal length of 100mm. Using that info and also the geolocation preserved in the meta-data it's clear to me that it's take 12650 meters from the blast and each pixel in the image is about 1.1 meters at the location of the fountain. I'm posting a link here to the full image hoping somene will double check ion this calculation. I'd say the plume is 50-55 meters high, and 350 meters wide.

Helge Jürgensen also writes that his first mate, who was on th ewatch and witnessed the actual explosion, was not an employee of the shipping company but a contractor from a crewing agency. He's trying to find him. Would be nice to hear his story and maybe get more pictures.

[eager moss]

I’ve been doing some more work on the information available on the DWD website regarding the wind and wave conditions in the vicinity of Bornholm and the pipeline rupture locations. There doesn’t appear to be a DWD archive available although it’s likely that past reports can be obtained on request. DWD publishes its metocean reports at 0700 and 1900 each day (GMT/UTC). I suspect the chart of wave height attributed to DWD may have been produced by others with DWD information.
I show below two charts; one on 31st August 2023 and the other on 4th September. I’ve marked on the charts the locations of the pipeline ruptures to the east and to the south of Bornholm (yellow X).

On the first chart (31st August) we can see that the waves are generated to the east, starting in the Gulf of Bothnia, and are driven by 15 knot winds from the North. The waves in the vicinity of the pipeline ruptures are swell waves that have dissipated as they have travelled outside of the area where they were generated by wind and have diminished in height. At the NS1 rupture location, the swell direction from the NE is in opposition to the 5 Knot wind direction from the WNW. (I suggest this supports my earlier comments regarding one of the reasons for the apparent inconsistency between reported wave height and wind speed.)
On the second chart (4th September) we can see that the wind is from the west and is generating wind-waves travelling in the same direction as the wind (as would be expected). The 5-10 knot winds to the west of Bornholm are diminished in the lee of Bornholm Island immediately to the east as would be expected but the lee does not approach the NS1 rupture locations. The reduced wave height in the lee is the result of the reduced fetch caused by the island.
Both charts show how the wind field can vary locally over water in both speed and direction - the wind speed varies from 10-15 knots to 5-10 knots on both charts within the wind field.

[eager moss]

There's a small "offshore support" boat been near the NS2A-D rupture site since yesterday, normally used for diving operations and work-class and inspection ROV deployment; the German flagged 'Baltic Toucher II'. It's said to be anchored (has a 4-point mooriing with 400 metres of anchor wire on each winch) and it's position has been reasonably consistent since yesterday.

[exotic shale]

yea, nice to see someone being serious and stayng a while over the site.

[strange bane]

https://baltic-taucher.com/about-us/

See bottom left.

[stone wadi]

Thats basically a whoes who in energy and heavy industry

[eager moss]

The vessel particulars; there's also a link to the vessel specification sheet. https://baltic-taucher.com/equipment/ms-baltic-taucher-2/

the boat has now left the site and is back in it's home port.

The Taucher seems to be a reasonable boat for some oil field services in the Baltic - the B3 development in Polish waters is in 80 metres water depth and 400 metres anchor wire length is about right for working in that water depth..

[limber hinge]

146 tons
Vs Andromeda roughly 14 tons.

[raw nexus]

✅ @inner sandal

[hushed karma]

I agree with this message. There are stil to many open ends. https://x.com/dornblueth/status/1704142840702324989?s=46

Gesine Dornblueth (@Dornblueth)

Die Anschläge auf die Nord Stream Pipelines sind fast 1 Jahr her. Es gibt viele Spekulationen und wenige Fakten. Für @DLF habe ich mir die Versionen angeschaut und muss sagen: Es bleiben weiter viele Fragen. U.a. mit @Erkperk @UmlandAndreas @terrorismus
https://t.co/NKUclB3dl0

Twitter · Sep 19, 2023, 2:38 PM

[stone wadi]

⬆️ for those like me that don't speak german:

@DLF
 and have to say: There are still many questions. Among other things with 
@Erkperk
 
@UmlandAndreas
 
@terrorismus

[little zinc]

another media investigation by NDR/ARD, Zeit and Süddeutsche - to be released tomorrow https://twitter.com/NDRrecherche/status/1705611445897925110?s=20

NDR Recherche (@NDRrecherche)

———Coming Soon ———

   TATORT OSTSEE  

Wer sprengte die Nord-Stream-Pipelines?

Eine gemeinsame Recherche von ⁦@ARD_Presse⁩ ⁦@DIEZEIT⁩ und ⁦@SZ⁩

Likes

154

▶ Play video

Twitter · Sep 23, 2023, 3:53 PM

[raven charm]

New article was released from this investigation, pretty long and in English: https://www.zeit.de/politik/2023-09/nord-stream-pipelines-attack-anniversary-english/komplettansicht

[raven charm]

Probably the most detailed investigation I have read so far. Nothing groundbreaking new, but a lot of bits and pieces I haven't seen before. Def worth a read.

[inner sandal]

New one from Seymour Hersh. Contrary to what the headline might suggest, this isn't a confession. https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/a-year-of-lying-about-nord-stream?r=nrwh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[raven charm]

Hersh was also mentioned and interviewed in the Zeit article:

And what about Hersh’s single source? And the foundational rule of journalism to have at least two sources for the version of an event that you, as the reporter, are seeking to present? Hersh said he had known this person for a very long time and that when you have such a history with each other, you also have to trust one another, even on big stories.

Explains a lot.

[rustic bay]

An old saying in journalism:
"If your mother says she loves you, get a second source"

[inner sandal]

The Hersh rule is that when a source tells you something sensational you don't risk ruining a good story by attempting to confirm it.

[junior moat]

At least now finally nobody can say anymore that diving to such depths was impossible from Andromeda .... the ARD just hired three divers and they went with a tiny boat and did it. (from minute 21:10 you can see their dives)
https://www.ardmediathek.de/video/dokumentation-und-reportage/wer-sprengte-die-nord-stream-pipelines/das-erste/Y3JpZDovL2Rhc2Vyc3RlLmRlL3JlcG9ydGFnZSBfIGRva3VtZW50YXRpb24gaW0gZXJzdGVuLzIwMjMtMDktMjZfMjEtNDUtTUVTWg

[raven charm]

I'm still quite fascinated that all the pro-Russian people still jump on the new Hersh story while more or less ignoring the Ukrainian lead by mainstream media. Pushing the Ukrainian angle would be incredibly beneficial for Russia, instead they constantly push a story that has more holes than the pipelines.

[inner sandal]

Russia is still pushing the Hersh version at the UN too. Russsia's reluctance to blame Ukraine seems odd unless the thinking is that it would give too much credit to the Ukrainians' abilities.

[raw nexus]

Can confirm that pro Russian accounts pushing him on German Twitter

[limber hinge]

Peter,
Assuming you were being serious I am afraid I need to STRONGLY disagree with you here.
These guys are using TWO vessles. First they have a FAR LARGER support ship that has with it a large RIB as a dive platform, and they are doing it in near perfect weather conditions.

This is exactly the kind if kit one would expect for such an operation and it indicates the kind of resources professionals would use.

If anything it indicates why Andromeda was NOT suitable for this operation.

Andromeda did not even have a RIB or other dingy for Diver access. Access had to be from the stern swim platform, not easy in any kind of sea way. It tends to beat you on the head.

[junior moat]

(1) people were doubting you could dive 80m without "decompression chamber" -> they did that.
(2) people were thinking you have to anchor the boat in order to dive -> they did not do that.
(3) it looks to me they could have taken 30-50kg more each (the explosives)
(4) the weather conditions should be comparable this September to last September
(5) the "support ship" didn't provide any support during the actual dive
(6) probably a RIB is preferrable versus the Andromeda, I don't know ..... but
(7) the three divers (at the end of their dive) say straight into the camera they assess the dive operation to be possible from the Andromeda

[limber hinge]

Peter

1. I never said you needed a decompression chamber. You do not.
2. I never said you needed to anchor. That would be silly. But you need station keeping ability and Andromeda is ill suited for that.
3. I never said anything about the explosive weight being an issue. There are many ways to handle the explosives.
4. I believe you are wrong there. But as we do not have good data from September it is pointless to argue. THIS operation was done in F1 conditions.
5. Here you are repeating a mistake made over and over, and this is the nub of the problem. I will make a 2nd post.
6. In F1 conditions, as presented in this video, Andromeda could have supported THIS ONE DIVE.
7. Yeah, people on camera say a lot of things. See my next post please.

To item 5, I have heard a lot of people say "This dive is doable from Andromeda." And they are correct in a narrow sense. But look at the situation in total. Read the below and put yourself in that situation.

Andromeda was out in the Baltic for the vest part of a month. A lot of that time therebwas pretty poor weather. You have 6 people living in confined conditions. At least 2 people are constantly on watch. Sleep is difficult, Andromeda is a pleasure yacht, not set up for extended cruising. You need waysbtobrestrain yourself in a bunk so that you arebheldbin placebo sleep; a Pilot Berth or Lee Cloths. Andromeda has neither. Using the bathroom is a real freaking chore. You get real tired, dirty, you stink, you have no privacy, water's scarce. Cooking is difficult to dangerous.
Now you also have a bunch of extra gear aboard, tanks and a compressor or rebreathers, and wet suits oh and a some amount of high explosives, plus detonator, and all your field weather gear which is going to get wet. So the interior of the boat is going to be a very tough environment.
Then you have to maneuver the boat to some spot, jump over board, do a difficult dive, and then be retrieved by a floppy board trying to cave your head in.
And how many times do they have to do this? Four?

Now by contrast, that TV dive crew....
Had a 20meterish ship.
They went there in the morning and the ships crew took them to the site.
The ships crew lowered the RIB, with soft sides and a recovery ladder, into the water.
The divers motored off and did their dive.
Then they were retrieved with a proper recovery boat and returned tobthe mothership.
There theybhad a nice hot shower, a good meal, and the shipsbcrew returned them to dock.
Even if they stayed over night they had proper sea berths.

So yeah, give them all the toys and no big deal.

But that is not the Andromeda experience.

[junior moat]

As we learned today though, Andromeda spent even more time in harbour than we knew previously. In Sandhamn in Sweden they were seen renting bikes and just wasting some time, smoking a lot apparently, also buying diesel for 500+ € in cash (so this probably means they did all their trips using the engine, never actually under sail)

[eager moss]

Re your point 4) - I have had some discussion with DWD and I'm expecting the records of wave height/direction and wind speed/direction for the month of September 2022. Files are expected today/tomorrow (I hope) and I'll post it here after I've extracted and plotted it.

I've been monitoring the conditions for September 2023 and they are different to 2022 as expected.

[limber hinge]

Peter,
That is not surprising. That is what I would do. Stay ashore as long as possible and then make runs out as needed.
That does take some of the stress off the crew and make it somewhat more feasible.
But that does not constitute proof that they did it. It just makes it a bit less miserable.

So here is another question. How did the story address the presence of the Russian vessles? How did they discount their presence?

[limber hinge]

The more info the better. I find the lack of weather bouys in that area fascinating. That is not important, just my reflection.

[eager moss]

My thoughts also - the absence of resonable wind/wave data doesn't help when thinking about the practicalities of diving off the Andromeda. I'm expecting to be able to produce a chart of combined sea/swell heights and directions at the NS1 rupture locations and also correlate the DWD data with the wind data from the 3 anemometers on Bornholm.

Then also the movements of Andromeda with the conditions

[strange bane]

To answer this point, it’s because the Baltic is decently covered by the VOS program.

[limber hinge]

Wile I am thinking of this let me spin another tale.

Imagine you are the person who is commanding the operation, that is some high person no doubt. Once you have made up your mind to do this how committed to the action are you? How much do you want to leave to risk? I would guess ... not much. Why is that important?

As you can see looking at the weather you can make only vague generalities of what to expect. In my experience above 3 days out is pretty speculative. And there is some significant risk you may get an entire month with no decent weather window.

So I would not want to use resources that are highly dependent upon some decent weather window. I would want to bring resources that can operate in a wider range of conditions to bring certainty to the project.

Of course this is speculation and proves nothing. People make dumb choices all the time and sometimes they get lucky. Still it is a worthy consideration when pondering likely paths of action.

I find it unlikely the project was taken lightly or with a high risk of failure. Or detection before the explosives were planted. And this Andromeda crew was surely unusual for many reasons. Crew make up, itinerary, out of season.

[strange bane]

Weather buoys, or ODAS buoys are usually in positions where they can provide prior notice of storm systems and data on them, but there’s nothing going to going to sneak through the Baltic without being picked going over land.

A sidetrack of course, but just to answer.

[limber hinge]

Sorry, what is VOS program? American with no Baltic experience.

[limber hinge]

Thanks.
We are typing past one another.

[eager moss]

Visual Observation Ships - a programme coordinated by the World Met Office

[strange bane]

Voluntary Observing Ships, but yes.

[limber hinge]

Thanks all. So is the VOS data available?

[strange bane]

No, it’s just the most likely source of the DWD’s data if it exists.

[limber hinge]

Sara,
An aside, are you aware of the Pilot Charts and Jimmy Cornells updates? They are likely the best LONG RANGE planning tools.

[strange bane]

Yes of course.

[eager moss]

VOS data is 'screened' before used for wave records by the met office. This is from the WMO handbook.

[strange bane]

Yea, given the TSS just to the north it’s likely that there would be a couple VOS weather reports in approximate position sent in over the days in question.

Again just context for whatever data you do get, if your wondering why they seem to have data on waves but yet we can’t find weather buoys for example.

[eager moss]

There are some SEPs in the Baltic ("jack up rigs") which will have wind measurement and possibly wave as well. I've contacted the operators but they're not forthcoming on providing the data.

[limber hinge]

Has anyone mapped out the know itinerary of Andromeda, in graphic form, with dates - given the new in port times?
I think someone had done that before? But it seems we now have more data.

[eager moss]

working on it and will add the wind/wave data when i have it.

[limber hinge]

To add to that it would be interesting to note their fuel purchases in volume (approximate if needed).

[limber hinge]

Thank you so much.

[eager moss]

I think it's also worth noting that the metocean conditions in the Baltic are pretty mundane, particularly for shipping and anything other than recreational boating; it's an 'enclosed sea' with a lot of weather stations surrounding it so that metocean conditions can be very well modelled and calibrated.

[hushed karma]

The Durch newschannel NOS reported today that there were new clues pointing towards Ukraine involvement. However they talk about Ukrainian passports. They forget to mention that Russian lady which also was there. Furthermore they go by the signals of some phones that sowed up in Ukraine. Wel. We all know phones are tracked. And for a lead that fact is in this case not conclusive evident either. In my opinion, it would be a stupid midtake to take your personal phone on missions like that. Just send it by post from anywhere and it will arrive and be tracked anywhere.
https://nos.nl/l/2491914

[winter escarp]

Slightly off topic, but: apparently German authorities are pushing ("leaking") the Andromeda theory to the press https://twitter.com/GresselGustav/status/1706613277168423044?t=lG9S5J1IF2z_LyRON3lF-g&s=19

Gustav C. Gressel (@GresselGustav)

@KlausMl67471449 @Nuclear04040908 @Ce_Moll @nicolange_ @ClaudMajor Keine Verschwörung. Aber irgendwer aus den Behörden/Reg. versorgt Journalisten mit Zwischenergebnissen der Ermittlung. Selektiv mit denen, die für die Andromeda These sprechen.
Ob das ein einzelner oder mehrere sind ¿?¿? Aber an der Bushaltestelle haben die das nicht gefunden

Twitter · Sep 26, 2023, 10:14 AM

[hushed karma]

Yes. And the Dutch press are also in this same direction. And most likely due to the pressure on it by the Russians on the Hersh theory.
https://nos.nl/l/2491937

[junior moat]

did the "German authorities" also plant a fake harbour worker in Poland, and a fake sailor in Sandhamn, and the guy who rented them the boat in Rostock at Mola is also an undercover agent from the German authorities? 😬
let's stick to verifiable information I would say, if we do that it doesn't matter who supposedly planted what with whom

[raven charm]

This is pure conjecture by him btw, it also doesn't make a ton of sense. He just does not like the current results.

[junior moat]

really recommend reading the Polish version of the updates to the story: https://frontstory.pl/andromeda-rurociag-nord-stream-wybuch-ukraina-trasa-rosja-niemcy/
it has more detailed info on "Rustem A." compared to the German or Dutch articles.

[junior moat]

interesting as well that three European outlets think it's necessary to keep Rustem's full name a secret, while the French outlet doesn't care, and name him as "Rustem Abibulayev" ( https://www.intelligenceonline.com/government-intelligence/2023/09/26/on-the-ukrainian-trail-of-the-nord-stream-2-saboteurs,110057638-fac )

[raven charm]

The Rustem A. info makes the Diana B.-Russia connection a lot weaker. It's a shell company after all, the official owner has no real connection to the company, that's why you set up such a company structure to begin with.

[raven charm]

Interesting bit from the Zeit article about the first (allegedly) planned and then aborted attack:

The classified report also included details of the act of sabotage allegedly being planned. The men were apparently planning to set out from a port in Sweden, disguising themselves as scuba divers supposedly headed to a shipwreck lying at the bottom of the Baltic Sea near Nord Stream 1. They would use a diving vessel and have an additional rubber boat with them. In addition to standard diving equipment, they would also be carrying a compressor and helium, a gas that divers mix in at depths of 40 meters or more. The report claimed the attack would take place just a few days hence, on June 19, 2022, immediately following a major NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea called "Baltic Operations." According to that timeline, part of the commando would already have had to have been underway, even as the report was being written.

This is pure speculation by me. I'm pretty sure the investigators would have found some traces of this aborted operation and we would have read about it in the media. Makes the Dutch intel source a bit less credible. This is also the only source so far that mentions a high-level Ukrainian involvement (Zaluzhnyi).

Makes the possibility of a rogue operation more likely imo.

[junior moat]

Yes, I think relying on the MIVD info is not really a good idea, we have no outside way of corroborating any of the stuff coming out of any intelligence service I'm afraid (not their own motives, and not the quality of their sources, etc)

investigators are a different type of information source, unlike intelligence services their findings will have to hold up in court at some point in the future

[raw nexus]

And the cat bite the tail
https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1706989897372885319?t=KDajhC30YOqoFhX_FECFJQ&s=19

Jessica Berlin (@berlin_bridge)

Ich frage mich, warum die 🇩🇪 Presse & ihre Quellen mehr auf die Andromeda fokussieren als auf die 3 russ. Marineschiffe, die vorm Anschlag mit ausgeschalteten Sendern in der Nähe der Nordstream-Sprengplätze unterwegs waren.
Wartet ab. Ermittlungen laufen. https://t.co/ozcTYXOciz

Likes

228

Twitter · Sep 27, 2023, 11:11 AM

[little zinc]

even the newspaper themselves say they are reporting on leaked parts of the official investigations, i dont see how this is a conjecture.

[raven charm]

According to him the leaks don't represent the actual investigation but are instead selective towards the Andromeda hypothesis. I have seen no evidence for this.

[little zinc]

ah, you were referring to the “selective” part of the tweet, maybe should have clarified that.

[junior moat]

this bloomberg article from 4 days before the NordStream explosions is also mentioned in the Zeit reporting: https://archive.ph/WWPjK
since it starts with "Russia says..." it's unlikely whatever it says happened is what actually happened ... but the timing is interesting nonetheless

[next dirge]

Yes, and even excluding this information, the link really isn’t as strong as some people want it to be.

Diana B appears to only be the legal owner, but as far as I can tell the only executive officer of the company is Nataliia. In theory when dealing with corporate entities the shareholder is almost entirely uninteresting, as the executive is fully in control of operations. In theory the only power of Diana in relation to the company would be to remove/appoint directors. And as the article suggests, she could easily be the legal owner without having any actual personal rights in the company (akin to a trustee).

Looking at the corporate structure the more interesting person is Nataliia — who lives in Kyiv. She would be the one with actual authority to e.g. rent equipment in the name of the company (and, she supposedly did).

[strange bane]

We have a picture of her, which me/PeterDunn geolocated.

This comes from one of the German articles.

https://goo.gl/maps/VkoA7EqnmNB8EYdh9

Picture on the left is the Etam ladies lingerie store you can see in the above picture, picture on the right is elsewhere in the shipping centre showing the weird plant pots.

I believe the German article said it came from Facebook, but with the name we have we can’t find anyone who looks even vaguely similar to her on Facebook, VK or other Ukrainian/Russian popular social media.

Which presumably suggests that the media reached out to her before publishing, and she took down her internet presence perhaps.

[stone wadi]

No-one ever claimed that it was impossible to dive in the Baltic.
During the day.
And in perfect calm weather.

Nor is it technically impossible to dive in the Baltic during a stormy night, it's just really idiotic.

Did the Germans demonstrate that the divers could also find the pipeline from?

[eager moss]

This chart is the combined wave data (sea and swell) I extracted from the data received from DWD last night; I've added what I think are the reported movements / sightings of the Andromeda during that month. If there are any corrections or additional info that I've missed let me know. {oops ! that should of course be Breege not Beere}

I've shown the wave data as the 0.5 metre range that is provided by DWD; in most cases the wave height is more likely to be at the lower end of the range. I'll do some comparisons of the wind data with anemometer readings on Bornholm and post those later.

[stone wadi]

1. You never need a decompression chamber for any diving.
   You just need it if you want to survive anything going wrong when you do a technically challenging dive.
   If you are perfectly fine with risking death by the benz.

I would also bet good money that the support ship had a decompression chamber so of course they had no reason to have one on the smaller boat.

2. No you don't need to anchor it, but unless you dive in daylight during perfect condition it is advertised that you have support lines so the divers can find the boat when ascending.

Sure you can skip that if you aren't worried about recovering the divers.

4. 🤣 no the weather condition is only comparable on average not day by day, we don't have consistent weather around here at the best of time so you need to find a night with comparable weather and redo it.

5. Of course it didn't do anything, nothing went wrong, it was there to be able to help if something went wrong.

6. There is miles difference between possible and plausible.
   You could do this dive from a rubber dinghy, but would not rate your survival chance too high if you did.

[stone wadi]

In conclusion the Germans proved that the dive could be done.

1. With a bigger more suitable boat.
2. During the day.
3. During calm seas.
4. With a support ship.
5. With some kind of air asset.

So in conclusion they didn't prove a single thing that was not concluded nearly a year ago

[stone wadi]

Source?

[eager moss]

This is just a quick chart of wind speed during the period of 13th to 23rd September - note the 20 and 25 knot wind speeds from the west.

[stone wadi]

Given that I know that everyone uses different civilian wind speed skales
This is a handy convertion chart and should cover most ways to give wind speed

[junior moat]

sorry Axel, we now have 3 highly experienced Baltic divers on the record saying the dive from Andromeda was possible.
and we have some twitter-know-it-alls who disagree. always will. I assess the divers to be correct.

[stone wadi]

Like I said no one ever doubted that it was possible.

The question is if it's plausible.
And that question is neither something that the German divers reflected over or have not been in any way been proven.
But given that they didn't choose to do it at night or in less then perfect weather condition I at least suspect we can infer the divers willingness to do a dive like this at less than perfect conditions.

Of course the divers are correct they just did the dive so they proved that it could be done once under the conditions they do dove under.

I want to see them do repeated dives out of a boat the correct size in the correct conditions, while living on the boat for extended periods, without any additional support resources to draw on if need arise, and demonstrate that they are able to navigate and find the pipeline underwater.

The Sunday sailing dive they did for the cameras while having some technical complications it is still on the level of what they could bring a novice with them even though that would be massively inadvisable

If someone wants to arrange some divers in proving nothing again they can always see if they can convince some to take rubber dinghy from Bornholm to the right spot and dive and then return.
( I doubt you would have any serious diver taking you up on that unless they had a support ship accompaniey with among other things a decompression chamber if something goes wrong.)

[junior moat]

The Frontstory article (https://frontstory.pl/andromeda-rurociag-nord-stream-wybuch-ukraina-trasa-rosja-niemcy/) contains this paragraph:

"At the end of June, two of our sources in Ukraine confirm: Rustem A. is behind Feeria Lviv. The company is therefore registered on pillars. Who are the "pillars"? The official owner of Feeri is simply A.'s cousin, and the president is a Ukrainian employee."

I don't know exactly what the meaning of "registered on pillars" is in Polish...
But anyways, is this saying that Diana B/K is Rustem A's cousin ?

[next dirge]

When I google “slupem” (pillar/pole) and “firma” (company) most articles refer to schemes where people have become directors either through identity theft, bribes/blackmail, or other criminal activity. I can’t tell the exact meaning either, but its clearly suggested that the director and owner does not have any real involvement with the company. “Kuzynka” seems to just mean cousin, so according to the article seems that Rustem and Diana would be cousins, with Nataliia just being an “employee”.

I recall that the equipment had been rented under the name of Nataliia — in general (legally speaking) it has to be as she is the only officer of the company. I wonder if it was really Nataliia anyway , as lawfulness doesn’t really seem to be a consideration here

[strange bane]

Their registered office was a premises which is specifically used as a registration office you can rent if you don’t want to have an actual office.

And as @inner sandal found, they both have Sussy websites: https://brian-whit.medium.com/nord-stream-investigation-another-strange-travel-firm-comes-to-light-bed1b61d9d40

[eager moss]

Chart of wind speeds at the Nordstream 1 sites during September 2022 and an updated version of the combined wave heights at the same location.

[raven charm]

From the Zeit article:

An initial clue comes from the original email sent to reserve the Andromeda. Investigators’ inquiries reveal that it apparently originated from a Ukrainian man around 30 years old, Maxim B.
[...]
Investigators don’t believe that Maxim B. was on the Andromeda. He works back in Ukraine as a kind of manager for ship crews. Was it in this role that he initiated contact with the charter company Mola Yachting?
[...]
The company in question is also the holder of the account from which the charter fee was paid. It’s called Feeria Lwowa...

[limber hinge]

Sorry for poor image.
Map shows some of the points while the chart shows Seva's wave height data and at sea time I have annotated.

Assuming they are only diving when seas 2M or less and at sea the only dive windows they have are Sept 9 to 12 and again Sept. 17 to 19.

In the meantime they took a trip to Sandhamm which is near Stockholm nearly 500 km away for a visit . That is a looong trip for a short visit. It would be hard pressing to get that boat to do 300km in 24 hours. And some of that is poor weather. So I don't know about that Sandhamm visit, really out of place. It would really point to this being a pure recreational trip.
Still there are 2 possible dive weather windows.
But this narrows the time and opportunity.
Narrows the focus.

[junior moat]

Gill, there are two Sandhamn in Sweden. This is the correct one : https://maps.app.goo.gl/vuTQA7CCCCJN4jtt8

the northern explosion sites are roughly half-way between Christiansø and this Sandhamn harbour

[eager moss]

I recall that some months ago one of the many speculative newspaper articles suggested that the NS2 sabotage south of Bornholm was performed after the visit to the Polish Kolobrzeg harbour but I don't know if that is just speculation or based on some evidence. The calmer period shortly after leaving Wiek on the 7th, when the Minerva Julie was occupying the imminent NS1 sabotage sites, could have been a period when the sabotage south of Bornholm was effected. Is there any information that shows this could not be the case ? This would mean that all of the calmer periods after the 13th could have been spent at the sabotage sites east of Bornholm. I posted the wind speed chart because the winds could have been as much a factor as the sea/swell and it should be considered together with the wave height chart.

👆 that's one I prepared earlier 🫣

[junior moat]

re: southern blast site, still the most puzzling questions to me:

• why a southern target site at all & why this exact spot with its very particular construction history ?
• why 17 hours in between the explosions ?
• why hit the same NS2-A string twice, leaving NS2-B undamaged ? (just a mistake?)

[eager moss]

Re the first question, maybe it was because the eastern site was not accessible because the Minerva Julie was in the vicinity and that was a surprise. It does have a peculiar NS2 construction history but that might not be a factor in the saboteurs decision making

I'm not sure why it would be a factor. If it was then it would be a reason to blow both NS2 pipelines in that location since both appear to have been subject to some unusual activity during pipelay in the area.

[junior moat]

yeah but we're not really talking 'in the area' but its exactly the spot (down to like 20m accuracy or so) where the pipelaying was suspended for over a year

I'm not sure I believe in that kind of coincidence

[eager moss]

I checked some of the coordinates for vessel activities in the area and i didn't get the impression that it was anywhere near that close. I could be wrong of course.

[eager moss]

I think the hypothesis has been set aside regarding the handover of responsibilities for pipelay being coincident with the rupture location.

It may well be the case that both pipelines were installed prior to the ceasation of pipelay by Allseas and had been installed past the location where the sabotage has occured.

[junior moat]

I checked all this in a lot of detail ... here the two screenshots I took (with the blast site already marked on the nautical map) from where Allseas Solitaire abandoned the pipelay operation on Dec 20th 2019, to where the russian vessel Akademik Cherskiy picked up the work in April 27th 2021 in that same spot

[limber hinge]

Sevastopol,
Thanks for that map. There are apparently 2 or more Sandhamms in Sweeden. That makes a big difference.

[eager moss]

I looked at much the same information. If you think about how a pipeline recovery is carried out, the pipelay vessel has to recover the laydown cable and then retrieve the pipeline off the seabed on to the vessel firing line and into the tensioners on the vessel. (In 80 metres water depth the length of pipeline span off the seabed is going to be about 250 metres.) If the Cherskyi starting position for pipelay is as shown in the diagram then there is a length of pipeline on the vessel up to the tensioners (3 in total) and into the welding stations (6 in total) and the Cherskyi has had to 'back up' to recover the pipeline off the seabed. So, there is a significant length of pipeline on the vessel; it's not just at the stern of the vessel. I have a firing line profile for the vessel somwhere and will post it when I find it; it shows the locations of tensioners and welding stations on the vessel.

Another point to consider is the diagram showing the Solitaire during the abandonment of the pipeline. The Solitaire is almost 400 metres long and that provides a scaled indication of the distance past the rupture location that the Solitaire continued along the route when laying down the line.

[junior moat]

I see your points and it makes a lot of sense from a pipelaying perspective (i.e. the blast site wouldn't be the exact spot where the end of the pipe was lying) .. but what my thinking is as well: What if whoever chose this spot to plant explosives wanted to send a message of sorts - people who look at AIS data ( like bellingcat discord et al 😉 ) were sure to notice this overlap with this "pipelaying-handover" .. so it was more about choosing this spot based on AIS data, not based on where the actual end of the pipeline was

[eager moss]

okay, so there's a political reason for selecting the location rather than a technical reason; I can understand that and it would fit with what appears to be a lot of political game playing surrounding Nordstream. 😉

[junior moat]

Norsar in Norway apparently shared some more detailed seismic data about the blasts with the Guardian (@Norsar - why not make it fully public instead? 🙃 )
It's nothing really spectacular, mostly confirms other bits and pieces we already had available, as far as I can see
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/26/nord-stream-pipeline-blasts-key-details-revealed-by-scientists

on that note, this paper ( https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/EGU23-6775.html ) is also still being kept under a lid, not being published in any journal, wonder who manages to keep the scientists from publishing

[eager moss]

The interesting comment from my perspective is that 2 of the explosions were 220 metres apart - which indicates that there was more than one explosive device on at least one of the pipelines (in view of the distances between the known rupture locations, the nearest 2 ruptures on different pipelines being at least 2 kilometres apart). Not new but it does confirm what we previously thought - that there were more than one explosive device at a rupture location.

[limber hinge]

The above is Sevas work with some annotations. It helps me visualize the physical situation, when the dive opportunities existed.
How long the drew was out at a time.
Distances travelled.

[eager moss]

my comment of course is assuming that the violent response of the pipeline is not what the seismologists are detecting

[eager moss]

one thing i find a bit confusing is that the boat was picked up at Breege and taken back to Hohe Dune harbour in Rostock (according to the recent Zeit report).

[junior moat]

I'm pretty sure it was picked up in Hohe Dune harbour (we have it on webcam there, and then leaving on the 7th)
Breege is where the rental company is registered and you can also choose to pick up your charter yacht there, but this wasn't the case here I don't think

[eager moss]

you're correct. I just read the Zeit report again

[velvet rain]

Hohe Düne (or at least Rostock) as the start of the journey has been part of the media leaks since the beginning.

[exotic shale]

This is incredible. Andreas Köhler still maintains that both pipelines are ruptured at one location although has seen all the footage showing that only one of the strings is ruptured at each location. quote from the Guardian piece: "Andreas Köhler, a senior seismologist at Norsar, said the distance between NA and NB “fit very well with the distance between both pipelines of Nord Stream 1 at the westernmost gas plume location northeast of Bornholm.” Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 both have two pipelines each"

Here is a good visualization of the damage based on currently available sonar data and footage https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeLVFd1lrPA

[junior moat]

yeah if only they would share some actual data (with coordinates) instead of a single sentence with unclear nomenclature

[exotic shale]

True, but this is the exact same thing Köhler said back in April, and if the Guardian isn't misquoting him he doesn't care that his calculations doesn't match reality. There was also an expressen article linking all of the four "events" to TNT equivalents, disregarding that all those events couldn't have been chemical explosions. https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/mindre-an-50-kilo-sprangmedel-vid-explosionen-pa-nord-stream/

[stone wadi]

Likely significantly more than 2 as the name just means "sand harbour"

[stone wadi]

Same
But more consistently reliable source
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream

[eager moss]

To complete the information I posted yesterday on wave heights at the NS1 rupture location - I obtained the recorded wind data from the three anemometer locations on Bornholm Island; this is available as the average and highest wind speed recorded for each hour during the month of September. I compared both the average hourly wind speed and the highest recorded wind speed from each of the 3 sites for the month; this is reproduced on these first charts.

But the more interesting aspect, and the reason for doing this work, is the comparison between the recorded wind speeds on Bornholm and the wind data obtained from DWD. Whilst the Bornholm wind data (from https://www.dmi.dk/friedata/observationer/https://www.dmi.dk/friedata/observationer) is hourly, the DWD data is twice each day. This chart shows the comparison between the average recorded wind speed (the dotted line is the highest recorded wind speed at the airport) and the wind speed at the NS1 rupture locations extracted from the DWD data - which is shown as a range as provided by DWD.

[eager moss]

There is a good correlation with the data recorded at the airport during the period 13th to 17th, when there were more severe conditions, and the wind was from the west; the anemometer at the airport on the west coast shows a good correlation with the DWD data for the NS1 rupture sites. During the period 3rd to 11th the wind was from the east and we can see that there is a good correlation with the anemometer on the east coast (Nexo Vest). This provides confidence that the DWD wind data is appropriate and that the wave data derived from the wind data is appropriate for the rupture locations.

[limber hinge]

Seva,
Using your data let me tell a little fictional take, this may give some insight in where to look.

Sept 6 we picked up the boat is Ristov and sailed to Weik where we stayed in a marina and did some provisioning/food. We still needed to load all our gear and the explosives and the weather forecast was bot good. So we moved to XXX where the truck could meet us and we could wait for a couple of days for weather to improve.

Then we had 2 days of good weather so we sailed 200km (a full 24 hours) to Site 1 where we made the first dives. We then pulled into Christiano. The weather was OK to sail but not dive so we sailed 100km to Sandhamm for a break. On the 16th we sailed 100km to SITE 2, near Sute 1, and finished the work in this area. We then sailed 100km to Kolobergz.

Then we had good weather so we sailed about 180km to Site 3 which was on our way back. We did our dives here and then finished the 100km sail to Rostov to return the boat. Enroute we stopped at XXX to unload our dive gear so as to not draw attention in Rostov.

[velvet rain]

Rostov seems a bit far away. And I don't know where Ristov and Weik are either 🫣

[limber hinge]

Seva,

If Andromeda did this then they should have had one stop more stop somewhere near Weik. Someplace with a dock where they could load their dive gear and explosives in private and wait for weather.

I still don’t like the Andromeda story but trying to make it work with what we know.

[limber hinge]

Ristov is an obvious typo of Rostov. The locations are on the map.

If I have something wrong then I will be happy to correct.

[velvet rain]

Okay, fine, I guess the hint wasn't subtle enough.
Rostov -> Rostock
Weik -> Wiek
Sandhamm -> Sandhamn
Kolobergz -> Kołobrzeg
(and also a minor nitpick):
Christianso -> Christiansø

It's important to keep names recognisable so that other members can follow your posts and verify them.

[eager moss]

I'm not really commenting on the feasibility of conducting the sabotage from the Andromeda; I'm just trying to make some sense of the available information and in this instance I'm trying to fill the gap resulting from the absence of wind and wave conditions at the rupture locations. Others are then welcome to use the information if they so choose - and I don't understand how the Andromeda story can be considered without knowing the conditions at sea at the time. As I've said before, I'm not interested in the whodunnit theories and I'm trying hard to not comment outside the technical sphere in which I have a little experience; I suspect I might fail on that point 🤦‍♂️ .

[limber hinge]

Seva
Don't worry you are doing good work.

At some point, whom ever did it, it needs to make a convincing story. Putting your info out there let's others check it and see how it fits.
IMHO it has given us another lead.
Thanks.

[limber hinge]

Sara,
Do you recall where they stored Andromeda for the winter?

[strange bane]

Mola has its winter maintenance park at Dranske, with the Andromeda stored this past winter on the pier located at 54.5968088, 13.2314316.

Which is an old East German fast missile boat garrison.

Halbinsel Bug is what the specific area is called.

The Mola maintenance/winter storage area in Dranske is located at 54.6312843, 13.2369151.

[limber hinge]

Danske or further South in Rennort?
Rennort, from the photo in Goole Earth, looks more like the spot. And there are stands piled there.
There is a reason I am asking.

[strange bane]

And Mola also has an office in Breege at 54.6130119, 13.3552699.

[strange bane]

It’s what is marked as Rennort.

[strange bane]

Picture from Google Street View of that pier.

[strange bane]

Yes sorry, I didn’t realise that Rennort was the name. I thought it was just called the Dranske Bug.

It’s not there anymore, it was hired specifically by German journalists a couple months ago, so it is back in service for charter.

[limber hinge]

Sara,
Thank you.
On my fairy tale I postulated they wanted to hang out somewhere near Wiek to avoid the foul weather but also to bring a truck to load the dive gear and the explosives. Then also unload when they came back.

There are a couple of piers or docks inside this breakwater that would work. And if this area was used for storage then it would not raise alarm if they stopped here for a bit.

I wonder if there is surveillance camera either on this area or perhapsbrhere is an entrance gate to the area that could be reviewed?

It seems like you may have to pass 2 gates, one into the beach area and a second into the old base area.

[strange bane]

There was a guy who explored it

And got the police called on him

[limber hinge]

Explored it? Like walked around?

[strange bane]

https://youtu.be/U65ZpI0n_QI

There’s a couple videos from way back when we discussed this.

#1072947857654554624 message

We were told it was at Mola in Dranske, but the pictures didn’t match the Mola yard

[limber hinge]

Yeah, it's not the Mola yard. It is further south.

[strange bane]

#1072947857654554624 message Some more videos, this was published 2nd September 2022

#1072947857654554624 message

This is when we figured out it was a different yard.

Or well, on that pier.

I believe Mola have some arrangement with the current owners of the property to use the piers as additional storage space for their boats.

And I’d imagine the police were happy to have it kept in a secure out of the way location rather than in the relatively wide open yard in a town when they did their searching.

[limber hinge]

OK, got that.
The question is very different.
Is there video for that area September 6,7,8?
How cool would it be to see Andromeda laying there and being loaded with stuff from a truck on Sept 8?

[strange bane]

No, we were looking for webcam footage of the Dranske, Rennort/Bug and Wiek area and we never found anything.

[limber hinge]

OK, bummer.

[nimble gull]

Sorry for responding to an old link, but that British Intelligence should have been involved in producing fake passports and planning the operation is new info right? Seems like something that should have been widely reported.

[junior moat]

yeah but it's based on one anonymous source who got in contact with a bunch of journalists. could have any number of motives .. only reason they probably assigned any significance to what he was saying is that he knew some previously unreported specifics.

at least that's how I read/interpret it

[stark palm]

https://jamesreedgermany.substack.com/p/nord-stream-sabotage-suspect-was?r=1lbohr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Rustem A just so happens to have been investigated by the Ukrainian police for recieving money from Russia and being involved in a plan to “violent change or overthrow of the constitutional order or seizure of state power, changes in the boundaries of the territory or state border of Ukraine”

[nimble gull]

Yeah it's mentioned later that it's the same source that led them to the Ukranain nationals, but different(?) from the source talking to MIVD. Interesting but I guess impossible to deduct anything from. Could be any "side's" intelligence ops.

[little zinc]

https://fxtwitter.com/jreedipictures/status/1710228560575660478

[nimble gull]

Hard to reconcile (from the Intelligence Online piece) calling this "a minor anti-corruption probe" and "...later ruled that the money should not have been seized and ordered it to be returned." Seems like extremely different crimes, and outcomes.

Very odd. What's going on in Germany...

Plotitng to overthrow the goverment can't really be called "minor corruption"

[junior moat]

If I can add my 5 cents, I don't want to be unfair towards the journalists putting this together (note: Oliver did parts of the research, not the writing), and I'm 100% sure their actual findings do check out because I trust their work 100%. The two things I would criticize is giving the article a bit of a spin of "German journalists must be russian assets" because that probably "sells" well with some audience. The problem what I think they should have done first (and they do note that at the end of the article) is give Holger Stark and the others a right of reply to the accusations.

That, and secondly, they should have noted that not only German media is involved anymore, but Polish, Dutch, Swedish, and Estonian journalists are part of the group sharing their findings with each other.

[little zinc]

i dont read the text as having a spin that german journalists are russian assets.

where do you see that?

[junior moat]

Okay that's maybe a bit of a strong statement. But the allegation is that the journalists overlooked some evidence (+ this being the evidence that hints at possible russian involvement in the Feeria Lwowa company) .. I can guarantee you people will draw 'conclusions' from that

[little zinc]

they did overlook essential facts about their main suspect, if people draw wrong conclusions from that its on the journalists not doing their job good enough (zeit etc) and not on the ones pointing out that parts are missing.

[junior moat]

fine. I'm not going to defend the journalists here, they're professionals & can do that themselves (given a chance) .. my two points from above I think are still valid though

[little zinc]

lets hope die Zeit & partners do react in some way to this new evidence.

[junior moat]

If you happen to know German by the way, there is a pretty interesting panel where the different journalists (Zeit, SZ, Spiegel) talk about the investigative work they did on this story. Unfortunately, I don't think youtube-translated subtitles will be good enough in this case (from my experience): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl64WRycvwc (also note this is already 3 months old)
One interesting tidbit is Stark talking about him meeting with Hersh in the US (Stark says Hersh didn't know a single detail about anything basically)

[stark palm]

I didn’t have any part in writing the piece, just found some of the info

[junior moat]

Good to know, thanks, I'll adapt my message up top accordingly 👍

Exactly what I predicted is now happening of course. Based on this substack article the journalists are portrayed as russian shills https://bsky.app/profile/gresselgustav.bsky.social/post/3kb3ilh3ist2x ( nice - bluesky embeds do work in discord 🙂 )
Side note: I have mad respect for Gustav Gressel, but here I think he just disregards that the investigation has actual eyewitnesses, and isn't based on "government leaks" for the most part.

[little zinc]

I dont see Gressel saying anything in that direction, russia is not even mentioned in the post you linked. He is just mocking the bad journalism here.

And our investigative journalists, who react with great offense when they are accused of relying too much on leaks from the authorities, didn't figure it out either.

[junior moat]

The funny thing is the one thing I have seen the journalists say again and again is that they don't rely on leaks because the authorities are trying to completely block them and don't answer any inquiries at all

[little zinc]

And i think this discussion derails from the new evidence, so maybe we should move this if there is the need to discuss this further.

[junior moat]

I just still think any editor would have first given right of reply, before putting out the evidence

[raven charm]

Interesting development, looking forward to the response.

A bit skeptical about the framing. According to the report Rustem A. is supposed to be "a member of the group planning to overthrow the Ukrainian government". Pretty serious crime, especially in the current environment, then why is he not in detention? Doesn't really add up for me.

[next dirge]

This is a terrible and very anti-OSINT take. If the journalists hadn’t published the information in the first place, then this new information wouldn’t have been discovered either.

[nimble gull]

https://x.com/MattBernardini7/status/1710312787946225858?s=20

🤷‍♂️

[raven charm]

There was a new article today by Welt: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus247860908/Nord-Stream-Anschlaege-Polen-uebermittelt-brisantes-Dokument.html

It's behind a paywall, but I found a summary here: https://madeinbocholt.de/nord-stream-anschlag-polnischer-geheimdienst-uebergibt-namensliste/#gsc.tab=0

Polish intelligence allegedly suspects a Russian plot and sent a list of names to Germany. German investigators remain skeptical. Nothing concrete that would be useful.

[junior moat]

yeah the article doesn't really contain anything new really other than that some list was sent from Poland to Germany.

[raven charm]

Got the full article, some new eyewitness reports.

An employee of the port office [in Polish Kołobrzeg] said he saw the crew one morning around ten o'clock. He said that two men were with him, speaking Russian and Ukrainian among themselves. Was one of them Valeri K., that Ukrainian from Dnipro, ex-soldier and classified as one of the key figures in the attack? The man answered in the negative. Other interviewees, such as yacht owners, who are in the marina almost every day, and restaurant employees, can't do anything with the picture of K. either. It is also interesting that no DNA traces of K. were found on the "Andromeda". And so it is questionable whether the man was on board at all.

WELT AM SONNTAG was in Christiansø a few days ago. The island, which is only 710 meters long and 430 meters wide and is called Pea Island because of its size, appears to be deserted. In investigative circles and in the media, it is said that the crew of the "Andromeda" was in the small harbor from September 16 to 18. Really? Or just another false lead? Island administrator Søren Thiim Andersen, who reports to the Danish Ministry of Defense, told this newspaper, "There is still no evidence that this yacht was ever in our harbor." No one has seen it in Christiansø, he added.
[...]
After the attacks, Danish police had asked residents to search out cell phone photos and videos from September 2022. In addition, all documents from the port office were searched. But: no trace of the "Andromeda". And harbor master Jens Jensen says the boat was never registered on Christiansø.

[junior moat]

https://bsky.app/profile/thuotila.bsky.social/post/3kbfcv4bssy23 some more pipeline sabotage betweeen Estonia-Finland (maybe unrelated, but nothing is 100% unrelated these days I guess)

more info : https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/07fa3666-2804-4d9a-98c1-91a3056e2995

[junior moat]

positioning seems related

[pure finch]

if so, it suggests the break happened outside the 12NM zone of both Estonia and Finland.

[junior moat]

from https://map.openseamap.org/

[junior moat]

yeah the little blue warships sitting exactly on top of the pipeline

[pure finch]

via @Thord Are Iversen
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1711388016000827427

[junior moat]

https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1711616010216755524

[junior moat]

I mean if OSINT ppl can follow these ships one would hope in the current security environment the navies are capable to track these ships and deter them .. but who knows

[pure finch]

Detecting what's happening below the surface is the really difficult bit. I mean, research vessels of various nations have a habit of loitering above areas that may have pipelines and other infrastructure.

Got a little laugh when I read the leak was detected shortly before 2am local time on Sunday. Of course the first NS explosion was detected shortly after 2am.

[elfin cradle]

"not again"

[junior moat]

🤯

now the big question: where was Andromeda ? 😂

[elfin cradle]

Tried to look at the seismogram but nothing clear as with NS explosions, too much noise. But maybe its time to mail some national geological agencies in Finland and Estonia and ask if they have seen anything.

[junior moat]

The tabloid Iltalehti (IL) cites a foreign and security policy source as saying that the government and the Finnish Defence Forces suspect that Russia attacked the pipeline.

( https://yle.fi/a/74-20054419 )
.. do they really want to publicly state if they know russia is behind this ?

[spiral kraken]

https://www.err.ee/1609127570/seismoloog-meie-pole-soome-lahes-plahvatust-tuvastanud

Estonian seismologists say they haven't detected anything

[lean violet]

How Old is this?

[spiral kraken]

Quick summary: Est and Fin seismologists haven't detected anything that could be interpreted as an explosion.

[elfin cradle]

The seismogram? You can see it in real time, but that is from Sunday at the nearest Station Vasula (VSU), Estonia

[lean violet]

I have not read about in danish Maybe I lost it in the news in form the Middle East. To much info this weekend

[spiral kraken]

"Based on seismic data, there is no confirmation of any explosion or detonation, or at least if one had occurred, it would have been so small that it would have been below the detection threshold. It can be speculated that if a very small detonation were to be carried out, it might not be capable of causing any damage. However, at least based on seismic data, there are no signs of such activity," said Senior Geologist Soosalu from the Geological Survey on Tuesday to ERR."

[elfin cradle]

"At about 0200, the pressure in the gas line fell from about 35 bars to 12 bars, then down to six bars"
"The Balticconnector pipeline is a single 20-inch pipe rated for 55 bars of pressure. It can handle about 2.6 billion cubic meters per year. "
https://maritime-executive.com/article/suspected-leak-forces-shutdown-of-strategic-gas-line-under-the-baltic

So the leak may not be as noticeable at the surface with that lower pressure as the NS leak were.

[junior moat]

presser 1800 Finnish time https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1711721287783981168

[lean violet]

When did they discover that they had been blown up? When did they discover the egg? How much time passed before they noticed the pressure drop på ns

[velvet rain]

Have you read the linked articles?

[junior moat]

I don't think it was blown up necessarily .. there's other ways to damage a pipeline (which won't get detected by seismic detectors - at least ones that are not so sensitive)

[lean violet]

Not yet i on my Way Home so just use stt

[velvet rain]

So please read the linked articles first before filling the channel with questions.

[lean violet]

Sorry i have read it now.

[velvet rain]

Do you still have questions? You're very welcome to ask them here!

[spiral kraken]

https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120238585/kaitseministeeriumis-toimu-eesti-ja-soome-vahelise-gaasitoru-teemal-erakorralise-pressikonverentsi

presser in Est too

[junior moat]

makes sense

apparently communications cable is also damaged in addition to the pipeline..
https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483

[spiral kraken]

well that comes from the president, so I wouldn't doubt it

[junior moat]

yeah just realized & corrected it

[spiral kraken]

"The leak location is within Finland's economic area.

"Finnish authorities have initiated an investigation. We also received information about a fault in the data cable. It is very likely that this fault is located within the economic zone of Estonia.""

Orpo

[soft flax]

i'll follow along with the press conference in finland, let's see what they have to say

[pure finch]

Oh how I hope Nokia has their undersea monitoring system in place in this area.

[junior moat]

yep, pipeline being monitored just fine

[pure finch]

OPSEC violation 🫣

[amber ember]

https://vxtwitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1711733199527678254

[soft flax]

orpo: the gas leak was discovered on sunday, and the location of the damage was within finland's economic zone

it is unlikely that it was caused by normal operation but rather by the effects of some outside action

a mention of the data cable as well, the damage there was probably within estonia's waters

finland's energy situation is stable

and there is still adequate gas capacity for the winter

now the vice commander (?) of the border control agency is speaking

the border control agency in cooperation with other government agencies and the military did a systematic inspection of the gas line and this morning found clear damage, emphasising that it wasn't just a leak but clear evidence of damage

(i am having a bit of internet trouble so my stream is being interrupted)

the national bureau of investigation is investigating the damage as severe sabotage

the damage to the data cable will not have a critical effect on finland's data connections

one journalist asked how far offshore the damage is, the vice commander doesn't provide specific details but describes it as being "basically in the middle of the gulf of finland"

NBI representative says that the damage is large enough that it must have been caused by deliberate action

[junior moat]

thank you 🙏

[spiral kraken]

Estonian presser going on: Estonian gas capacity also not affected. There's an overview of ships that have been in the region.

They probably have the location of the breakage site.

Still needs further investigation tho

Gas pipe rupture 60m deep, cables 70m deep

Can't confirm if 2 incidents connected. They're pretty far apart.

It's mechanical damage that a simple diver or underwater drone can't do. Has to be something bigger to create such force.

Before shutting down gas was flowing towards Estonia and onwards to Latvia, now Estonia gets its gas from Latvia.

cable belongs to telecom Elisa

[crystal fiber]

For anyone suspecting natural causes: the largest fauna that can be regularly found in the Baltic Sea is a kind of porpoise, so no animal will cause "what a simple diver can't do"

Also this is one the most seismically stable areas of the world

[junior moat]

thing is we don't really need to speculate – Sy Hersh's anonymous source will let us know tomorrow what happened and how exactly the Norwegians did it

[inner sandal]

If it's sabotage why not use explosives -- preferably with delayed detonation so the saboteurs can get away. Attacking the pipe at close quarters by some other method would be hazardous for those involved.

[junior moat]

yeah but the press briefing specifically says

Pevkur also confirmed that it was a mechanical injury that must have been caused by a stronger force. "There was no explosion," Pevkur said.

wonder what that means

[tidal knoll]

Anchor? Anything else dragged across the sea floor?

[junior moat]

yeah .. seems plausible

but that would really mean the perpetrator doesn't care to get caught.. correlating the time of the pressure-drop with the location of a ship at the leak location should be easy

[crystal fiber]

I'll be extremely disappointed if it turns out to be one of the Tallinn-Helsinki booze ferries that accidentally dropped a small anchor (no I don't know what a "ship" is and whether this is possible)

[little zinc]

https://fxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1711783515170173357

[little zinc]

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea

[inner sandal]

It would endanger the ship

[eager moss]

The pipeline is 20" diameter with a steel wall thickness of 15.9mm. The pipeline design pressure was 80 bar (correction from 120 bar) but it was designed to deliver gas in both directions and at a lower pressure of 60 bar in one direction, presumably due to compression being different at either end to suit different gas flows in the different directions. I'm trying to find some better detailed technical information. The reported decrease in pressure was from 35 bar at around 2am on Sunday but there seems to be some confusion about timing and maybe also what the operating pressure was prior to the leak.

The weather wasn't great on Saturday night/Sunday morning with strong winds from the west (average 20-25knots gusting to 30-40 knots) and significant wave heights of about 2.5 metres at the pipeline location (based on recorded wind and wave data nearby).

The pipeline leak appears to be near the 'middle' of the gulf in water depth of 60 metres.

The pipeline crosses the four Nordstream pipelines and seven cables; so it will have been installed on mattresses or rock berms to be elevated above the pipelines and cables to provide some separation between the pipeline and the previously installed pipelines and cables. I haven't yet found any details about rock dumping at crossings or for spanning as it crosses the Gulf. There was a concrete weight coating, probably 80 - 100 mm thick.

[little zinc]

i can share the complete presser transcribed & translated from another discord, anybody interested?

whats the best way to put that much text in here with the character limit?

[little zinc]

thanks to Ghost of John Bercow from PO.

[eager moss]

A 20" pipeline with a wall thickness of 15.9mm would be susceptible to hooking by a large vessel anchor and could be dragged some distance before buckling. This is one of the most common source of damage to pipeline of this diameter near a shipping corridor together with mechanical damage caused by anchor impact.

[inner sandal]

So it was caused by "external action" and "still investigating whether this was a deliberate act or not".

[pure finch]

NORSAR is an internationally recognized** independent research foundation**. We specialize in seismology and seismic monitoring.
NORSAR's core competence lies within seismology and applied geophysics. **We carry out research and consulting projects worldwide, based on these disciplines. **As an extension to this work, we develop software solutions for both research and industry.
https://www.norsar.no/about-us/

[eager moss]

Do we know where the reduction in pressure was noted (35 bar to 12 bar then 6 bar) ? I suspect it is at the Estonian receiving end (the pipeline was transferring gas from Finland to Estonia at the time). So that the 35 bar was the receiving pressure whilst the inlet pressure at the compressor station in Finland would have been higher. It would be good to know what that was . . . .

[pure finch]

Dude, the original post says "This explosion was detected using stations in Finland."

NORSAR is operating the sesimic stations, it is not the same as Norway, they are an independent research foundation - so they would be paid by nations, institutions etc. to carry out their work.

"Norway is not even close to the Baltic sea" has absolutely no meaning in this. None.

[velvet rain]

Everything okay here?

Let's keep this on topic then.

[junior moat]

Why are NORSAR and Estonian/Finnish govt officials directly contradicting each other re: seismic activity ? That's really weird

[stone wadi]

government officials have to take diplomatic consequences into consideration.
private organisations don't

[little zinc]

did they say they rule out an explosion with their data or did they just say they didnt record/notice anything notable? big difference which could easily be overlooked.

[stone wadi]

to that is is the fact that whatever a governmental officer say as a official statement will be taken as gospel truth so they are understandable significantly more careful about what they say.

What Brian quoted above about that it was caused by "external action" and "still investigating whether this was a deliberate act or not".
Is basically a boilerplate statement that will be the same regardless if that is actually the full knowledge of what happened or if they know who did it, why it was done, and they have it on 4k film, the first statement will still be a boilerplate statement, the extent to what is known and what they are to do about it will not be said until later

(it also have to get through the burocracy and reach the top, and even if the Finnish and/or Estonian sonar department of the nawy have exelent recordings of the discussion between the divers they are unlikely to tell any politican about it as it would expose the capabilitys they posses)

[eager moss]

i think it's timing - the Finnish guys may not have had the information from NORSAR when they made their statements

[stone wadi]

I can't say 100% if this apply for Finland and Estonia but in significantly part of Europe politicians are not granted any security clearance unless they need to know, even the PM and/or President might well not hold any universal security clearance, (contrasted to the US where the security clearence devolve from the president and the congress enjoy exeptional securty clearence for no other reason than that they whare elected)
So this is an other explanation that governmental officers in Europe might not say too much about a subject at once, they know that they haven't been told everything that is known and do not want to have to retract a earlier statement.

[eager moss]

It might also be worth noting that the survey vessels that went to investigate may not have had the equipment on board that was needed to provide a definitive answer. They may have just had side-scan sonar and bathy. If they don't carry an ROV and pilot as a standard then they might not have been able to mobilise in time before the vessel left port.

[stone wadi]

that is likely also a factor + time to analyse all data

its also unlikely that a goverment officer would use info from a external source unless it had been internally evaluated.
so even if the Finnish guy know about the NORSAR data and was was asked about the NORSAR data he would likely have responed something like "we are aware of their data and are looking into it and see if we can colaborate it with other sources"

[junior moat]

just realizing the Norsar data is maybe more consistent with the apparent cable sabotage in Estonian EEZ rather than pipeline damage in Finnish EEZ it seems ..

[stone wadi]

some highlights

This is a masterclass in letting the obvious be unsaid
[4:37 PM] PM says should be ready in case of "further surprises" and readiness has been increased (or at least that's how he made it sound) but does not specify any threats.

[4:38 PM] Border Guard official speaking now.
[...]
[4:39 PM] Early this morning located damage in the pipe, this was not a leak but damage that in light of all information available appears to be the result of external action.
[...]
[4:41 PM] Emphasizes that still investigating whether this was a deliberate act or not.
[4:42 PM] Cable break likely in EE EEZ, in this case EE officials will lead, NBI will cooperate and has been cooperating with colleagues in EE

[4:43 PM] Gas company has given its own assessment, which is damage is not the result of normal operations.
[4:43 PM] Pipe has been shut since leak was detected. Damage is serious, repairs will take "months".
[4:44 PM] Situation of gas supplies secure, plenty of spare capacity exists to more than fully replace the pipe even at full capacity. No issue for energy security.
[4:44 PM] Gas prices may increase, but overall effects believed to be limited.
[4:44 PM] Two electrical cables also pass between FI and EE; the status of these cables is normal.```

[4:49 PM] Q: Seems likely an external actor is behind this. Is there reason to believe the external actor may be Russian?
PM: Believe important to investigate properly, not make premature accusations.
NBI: Will not speculate at this point, hope to find out during investigation who is responsible, will provide facts to government for possible attribution.
[4:51 PM] Q: Swedish Navy commander told last spring that Russia has been charting Finnish and Swedish cables to prepare operations against them. Media speculates Russia has committed this attack on the energy grids of two NATO countries. How serious do you (PM) consider this? Has consultation with NATO started? FDF, can you say anything regarding heightening of readiness? (Own actions, requests for NATO support etc.)
[4:53 PM] PM: Security situation in our region is critical. We have been preparing for various situations. Something like this can not come as a complete surprise to anyone, critical infrastructure needs security. Damaging critical infrastructure is a very serious thing and as such must properly investigate and not jump to conclusions. President has communicated with NATO. Taking the issue very seriously.
FDF: Normal task of FDF to maintain situational awareness, including in the Gulf of Finland. Will not comment on operational matters.```

```[4:55 PM] Q: With the current information, what will happen next? What are the important steps now?
NBI: Technical information ongoing. Seeking to secure evidence and figure out if this is a one-off action. The two events are connected in time, investigating possible connections between them.```

```[4:57 PM] Q: How far from the Finnish coast is the pipe damage and how far is the cable from the pipe?
BG: Pipe in Finnish EEZ, central Gulf of Finland. Cable is not in the immediate vicinity, but broadly same geographical area. Will not comment more.```

Hm
The border guard actually say "no Seismological signature detected", that is a rather silly mistake

BG: No seismologic signatures or explosions detected. A lot of traffic in the area, civilian, state and military alike. Situation still relatively normal.
Follow-up: Open sources have remarked on Russian hydrographic research ship in the area, any relation?
BG: Will not comment on individual ships.```
A more correct result would be something like "I am not aware of any seismological signatures being detected but we are looking into it" or "our analysis are ongoing"

[velvet rain]

I don't think we need to post the transcript multiple times.

[eager moss]

The notice from NORSAR qualifies the accuracy of the location estimated so it may not be a particularly precise location at the moment.

[stone wadi]

Its a rather long transcript that contain a lot of fairly irrelevant tjater so thought it might be worth posting the more relevant parts
the last 1/3 had some questions about Åland remiliterisation and if expolsons was used but nothing mroe specific than "investegation continues"

[eager moss]

There's a site that shows the flowrate through the pipeline

https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?from=2023-10-06&indicators=Physical Flow%2CFirm Technical%2CFirm Booked%2CFirm Available%2CInterruptible Total%2CInterruptible Booked%2CInterruptible Available%2CPlanned interruption of firm capacity%2CUnplanned interruption of firm capacity%2CPlanned interruption of interruptible capacity%2CActual interruption of interruptible capacity&points=fi-tso-0003itp-00550exit%2Cee-tso-0001itp-00550entry&to=2023-10-08&zoom=hour

[junior moat]

yeah true, just saying it might not be the pipeline location after all

[crystal fiber]

(tangent: as someone in EU electric markets that consumes a lot of European transparency data, wow, why does EntsoG have like 10 years newer graphics than EntsoE)

[stone wadi]

border guard about the communication cable

BG: Pipe in Finnish EEZ, central Gulf of Finland. Cable is not in the immediate vicinity, but broadly same geographical area. Will not comment more.```
(From the transcript highlight I posted 15 min earlier that themself was from #1072947857654554624 message )

for political implication I would say the PM's first statement about "further surprises" and the statement about remilitarisation of Åland "not to hasty to speculate" and "not being relevant"
are the both the most important parts and the parts easiest overlocked

[crystal fiber]

A few weeks ago the MoD/MoFA's report had recommended against short term remilitarization of Åland, it's nothing new

[stone wadi]

I must have missed that report, any chance you can DM a link to me? (Aren't really able to search in Finnish but would be able to decipher a document somewhat).
it rather significant that it is something that is even discussed though

[crystal fiber]

https://yle.fi/a/74-20053192

Here, took a while to find

[stone wadi]

Thanks

[crystal fiber]

Got it slightly wrong and it's just MoFA anonymous sources, the report is actually yet to come out but it's due this month or the next