history

[runic ermine]

That's what I'm trying to say. It's possible but far from easy

[autumn sorrel]

And the airfields I just listed are those confirmed operated by IJN and IJA

[grave ravine]

I think the Soviets have better than even odds of getting the first division ashore largely intact, but if half the LCIs are trashed in the landing you aren't getting the second division there

[runic ermine]

What we're debating is the highly debated topic of if the Soviets could successfully invade Hokkaido

[runic ermine]

So 3 airfields correct?

And with the nearest soviet airfields 200 miles away that means that the Japanese will have air superiority

Most likely

[autumn sorrel]

Problem with your argument is that it sound like you are following Robert Frank saying that Soviet can succeed in their Hokkaido invasion plan, we aren't deny that they can land force but we are denying that the Soviet can succeed

[grave ravine]

Japan had IIRC 70 fighters and a smattering of other combat planes in the 5th Area Army, plus whatever reinforcements they get from the other home islands

[autumn sorrel]

More, and that doesn't count what Japan High Command think they can spare to send up north

[runic ermine]

Plus the Volunteer fighting Corps. Poorly equipped and trained but highly motivated

[strong plank]

could the soviets successfully land on hokkaido and hold it
no, the resistance would've been too great
ok but what if they established a beachhead tho

[autumn sorrel]

7th Division is an oversized one, even with a portion of it were send to die in Guadalcanal, the division still retain it main fighting force

[unkempt sedge]

The USSR was loaned quite a few ships by the U.S.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Hula

[grave ravine]

Yes, the key ones here being the 30 LCIs that make up the entire landing fleet of the Soviet Pacific Fleet

[runic ermine]

It's possible but not easily done

[runic ermine]

And they lost 6 in the kuril islands right

Or was it more?

[unkempt sedge]

It was not enough landing ships for the USSR to pull off a major naval invasion.

[runic ermine]

Yeah. Hence the plan to make more than one trip

[grave ravine]

We are presuming that doesn't happen, because if it does then they don't even have enough ships to send a single rifle division

[autumn sorrel]

With 50% less shipping capacity?

[unkempt sedge]

Imagine the trips needed to bring supplies back and forth. Same for tanks and equipment as well. Plus, the Soviets have no experience in amphibious invasions of that size.

Kamikaze's would also be a huge problems as they do not have the experience in dealing with them.

[grave ravine]

There aren't even any tank units earmarked for this, because the Soviets flat out have no tank transports

[runic ermine]

True. Only with the Kuril islands which is why they changed their order of battle to include more units but that creates another problem

[unkempt sedge]

Exactly. For invading the Kurils those ships would be enough, but not for Mainland Japan itself.

[grave ravine]

Japanese mobile forces consist of two infantry divisions and an independent armored regiment

[autumn sorrel]

They send Rifle divisions, not Morskaya Pekhota. You know, the guys that supposed to specialized in naval landing

[runic ermine]

Wait didn't the home islands have better tanks?

[unkempt sedge]

Luckily Japan did not have to deal with Soviet Naval Infantry. They were pretty hardcore. If you want fanaticism equal to the Japanese, they are an even match.

[grave ravine]

It's somewhat questionable that even the Kuriles landings would have been a success had it not happened after the surrender

There are something like 4 infantry divisions spread throughout the Kuriles

[runic ermine]

And a pretty cool uniform. I like the blue

[autumn sorrel]

Depend, they were used mostly as shocktroop in the Black Sea theater, there were limited amphibious operation outside of river crossing so some units aren't that adept

[junior trench]

...

People still think the naval infantry are actually like

Naval?

[unkempt sedge]

They were mostly sailors of a ships crew also, but they gained A LOT of experience. Same goes for the IJN SNLF.

[runic ermine]

Also one thing ive questioned is experience of both sides

[junior trench]

Actually scratch that

[runic ermine]

Some people probably idk

[junior trench]

People are still trying to argue that the Soviets could actually make these landings?

[autumn sorrel]

Fighting on land, yes. Beachhead assault on rough sea, doubtful

[runic ermine]

Yep. I said it would be hard but possible

[junior trench]

You'd be wrong

[remote monolith]

I'll just add that according to Gianreco there were at least 250,000 military personnel on full alert at Hokkaido monitoring potential naval invasion sites, plus probably about a million paramilitary forces

Yet this was not all the military manpower that could be drawn
upon. An expansion of the air force commitment to Hokkaido, both by the Navy and the Army, was initiated after US forces invaded the Mariana Islands in 1944, and there was a very large assortment of combat and logistical support elements from all services on hand (nondivisional antiaircraft, artillery, supply, etc.). The number of military personnel ultimately demobilized by the US IX Corps and 77th Infantry Division on the island totaled a stunning 291,947 men at arms, a figure that was roughly triple that of Japanese military personnel killed on Okinawa and which did not include the paramilitary Peoples Volunteer Corps and 4,916 police

[junior trench]

Especially considering the USSR would still be bogged down in Manchuria and Korea in any timeline where things have lasted long enough for a naval landing to go forward

[runic ermine]

Does this include the landing side of Rumoi?

[unkempt sedge]

They could do it if they took the time to drill and train, but they simply did not have the time to do that and besides, they had more important things to deal with instead of naval landings.

[junior trench]

With a single track railway as their only supply line

[runic ermine]

True. Manchuria was still going on and I think there was still a seige at Harbin around this time

[remote monolith]

yes

Unfortunately for the young Russian soldiers, sailors, and marines, the Kurile and Sakhalin fighting had put forces in northern Japan on full alert. Worse yet, Japanese air activity had increased along the very route that the ponderously moving invasion force would have to sail, and the area was also alive with civilian vessels of all sizes and types crammed with refugees fleeing the “bestial Russians.” Of largely wooden construction, they did not set off the magnetic mines heavily sowed by American bombers near Sakhalin ports, and the stout defense put up by Imperial troops enabled more than a quarter of the 370,000 Japanese on the island to Dunkirk their way south. The bottom line is that the Japanese would have known early on that the Soviets were coming and the movement would not go unmolested.

[junior trench]

Manchuria was an unmitigated operational disaster

For the Soviets

[runic ermine]

How?

[junior trench]

The stupid casualty numbers caused by wanton cruelty in the wake of the surrender mask that

[unkempt sedge]

Japanese still lost anyway. That's a success in my book.

[junior trench]

No they didn't lol

The Japanese didn't even fight

[runic ermine]

They did

[junior trench]

Except for one holding action

[unkempt sedge]

They most certainly did.

[autumn sorrel]

That was with the Kwantung army not fighting that hard

[junior trench]

Which was to secure the Japanese withdrawal intact to their defensive positions on Korea and farther into Manchuria

[unkempt sedge]

Kwantung Army was weakened from siphoning men to go fight in the pacific, but the still put up resistance to the Soviets regardless.

[junior trench]

The Soviet propaganda over the Manchurian campaign sells it as a battle

It wasn't

The Soviets attempted to pursue the Japanese to their defensive preparations and failed

And in the process lost track of entire Tank Armies

Due to lack of fuel

[remote monolith]

At Rumoi itself, the only site along the northwest cost that offered a prospect of moving inland, a division of the Soviet 87th Rifle Corps plus the 354th Separate Naval Infantry Battalion would initially face only a single—but ready for battle—Japanese battalion which, though it had no coastal defense guns, would make appropriate use of its generic light artillery against the invader’s boats. It seems likely that the Russians who made it to shore would succeed in seizing the small port but they would have no tanks, no trucks other than what they could commandeer, and little, if any, artillery. The 87th’s newly appointed commander Lieutenant General A. S. Ksenofontov, would immediately find that the road inland as well as the one skirting the coast were, as US intelligence analysts had dryly noted, “subject to blocking” by even the People’s Volunteer Corps.

The Imperial Fifth Area Army under LTG Higuchi Kiichiro contained 32–33 infantry battalions and 37–38 artillery batteries. It would detach and send to Rumoi whatever elements it deemed prudent from LTG Koito Gyoicho’s 7th Division covering the northnortheastern area and LTG Mineki Juichiro’s 42nd whose westernmost elements were in the Sapporo Plain. At least five infantry battalions from these divisions were less than one day’s rail and road march from Rumoi. Stalin’s understrength and bloodied infantry force would quickly come under direct siege, a situation that would not provide a useful
basis for Soviet occupation demands. And instead of having Stalingrad’s wide, if sometimes broken, frontage along a river thatmen and supplies could be ferried across, they would be confined to a Dien Bien Phu or Gallipoli-like enclave surrounded by hostile hills and with several hundred miles of open ocean separating them from support. That is, if Stalin hadn’t heeded the warnings of Zhukov, Molotov, Vasilevsky, and Truman against an escapade on mainland Japan.

[autumn sorrel]

They never have the intention to fight in Manchuria to begin with, Korea was where the main defence line were

[runic ermine]

Try. And it was still considered to be an elite fighting force despite the transfers

[remote monolith]

Rumoi was well-watched

[grave ravine]

There was supposed to be another infantry division as part of the mobile forces in Hokkaido which had been pulled out of Manchuria during the Soviet attacks, but they got sunk by an American submarine en route

[remote monolith]

and there's heavy amount of Japanese forces on standby

and the landing site was surrounded by hills

[autumn sorrel]

It seem to be a tradition by now

[runic ermine]

That's a rough way to do

[remote monolith]

assuming they kept trying to land it would have been an unmitigated disaster

[unkempt sedge]

https://youtu.be/LBuMDG2TvcY?si=NRv-2uAPktm_t6-n

[junior trench]

Japanese casualties in the Manchurian Campaign almost universally occurred after the Japanese surrendered

As the Soviets were trying to grab as much land as possible

Despite the war being over

[strong plank]

soviet moment

[runic ermine]

That is true

[junior trench]

Which resulted in complaints by the CCP

[grave ravine]

Generic light artillery sank six LCIs at Shumshu

[junior trench]

Because the Soviets were killing, looting, and raping

Everything and everyone

Japanese and Chinese

[remote monolith]

exactly

[runic ermine]

japan kinda was doing that for the past 8 years

[junior trench]

Irrelevant

To this case

[unkempt sedge]

It was Karma in a way. Not that I am for those types of dusgusting atrocities obviously.

[runic ermine]

I guess? But you're right. It's weird to say that it is

[junior trench]

The casualty figures of the Manchurian campaign reflect a Soviet campaign of violence against a defeated population

Not a successful military operation

If the Soviets had to actually fight on Manchuria, they'd be doing it at the end of a single strand railway as their only supply line

[unkempt sedge]

NGL. Soviet Naval Infantry uniform is pretty based.

[junior trench]

Exacerbated by many of the armored and mechanized units having driven across the USSR to reach the area to begin with

[autumn sorrel]

Yes but they too busy to do that instead of, I don't know, pursuing a retreating enemy force

[junior trench]

As the USSR wasn't capable of moving them by proper logi

[remote monolith]

also another thing is that the Soviets only had somewhere around 100 planes together for the entirety of the Far East

further reinforcements was only arriving at Manchuria about a week after Shumsu'

[runic ermine]

I really wanna get lego minifig of it. Even if it is the one from aliexpress

[grave ravine]

It's not like they really have the range to hit Rumoi either

[runic ermine]

True

[remote monolith]

they don't yeah, most of them gonna be stuck focusing on Sakhalin

[grave ravine]

Yeah without the surrender Sakhalins going to be a bloodbath

[junior trench]

To further complicate matters, the historiography of the Manchurian Campaign is indelibly tied to the attempts to inflate the Soviet importance in the Surrender of Japan

[runic ermine]

Plus whatever few planes mongolia had. And I mean few

[junior trench]

Which notably exclude any attempt at asking what the Japanese thought

[unkempt sedge]

Yet they still shipped many divisions from europe on that railine. So it really was not a failure. Keeping up with logistics is most certainly debatable.

[junior trench]

It was absolutely a failure

[autumn sorrel]

Which basically nothing but 80 yrs of propaganda distort history

[junior trench]

The Soviet forces did not make contact with an enemy who successfully withdrew to prepared to positions before a general end of the war

[runic ermine]

Some debate that it had more impact than the nukes but I doubt it. It was more a combination of both

[junior trench]

No

No it was not

[strong plank]

nah the soviet surrender myth is

hilarious

[junior trench]

A thousand times no it was not

[remote monolith]

the Soviets definitely had no input on the surrender

[junior trench]

The Soviet Invasion of Manchuria and their declaration of war expected

[remote monolith]

considering they can't even invade Hokkaido

[junior trench]

And planned for

[unkempt sedge]

They were not really interested in it anyway. They got their influence in China and Korea and that was what they wanted.

[junior trench]

The Japanese preparations for that course of events were happening on schedule outside of a single holding action near the Manchurian-Korean border

[strong plank]

the soviet surrender myth always boils down to either

[junior trench]

A successful one at that

[runic ermine]

True. If so they probably would have pushed back the date or at least finish fighting in Manchuria or Korea

[junior trench]

Due to the limited supplies available for the Soviets

[remote monolith]

Stalin was very interested in pulling it off, hence actual preparations and proposal being made to invade Hokkaido against resistance from Zhukov and his closest advisors

[autumn sorrel]

It was bc people like to forget that Hirohito make 2 surrendering statement, one for the HI, who never know the Soviet but know American bombs. And for the Army in China, who don't care about the bomb but about to face the Soviet.

[strong plank]

1. "the japanese surrendered because the soviets attacked IJA positions on the border and took heavier casualties than the IJA, not the sudden evaporation of 2 logistically significant cities"

[remote monolith]

then he decided to switch it to the Kurils, which ended VERY well/s

[strong plank]

or

[runic ermine]

Reminds me of the time someone had to tell Stalin that building 15 battleships was impractical

[junior trench]

No one did

[autumn sorrel]

No one

[junior trench]

The Soviets went ahead with that plan

And revealed they can't make rivets

[unkempt sedge]

Yep. Good thing too as the navy ended up NOT being a priority anyway.

[runic ermine]

They laid down 4. 15 were planned

[autumn sorrel]

Even fucking Zhukov have to stay silence on most shit when Stalin talk

[unkempt sedge]

And none were finished.

[junior trench]

They laid down 4 because that's as many yards as could take the ships

[remote monolith]

they actually tried making the Sovetskaya Rossiyas and the only think stopping the thing from proceeding was the fucking Germans invading and cold hard reality smacking them in the face collectively

[junior trench]

They'd lay down more once those were launched

Shipbuilding 101

[remote monolith]

an no point was anyone in the Soviet structure openly questioning the idea of making 15 battleships without prior experience

[runic ermine]

Sovetskaya Belorussiya was used as a floating battery at leningrad but yeah it was like 29% finished. None of them were even close to being done

[unkempt sedge]

Depends as many times Stalin was willing to let Zhukov speak his mind. Plus, him being a war hero make him a martyr if he decided to "wack him."

[autumn sorrel]

Honestly, German should have let Soviet do their shit a few more year and wasting their resource on Stalin Megalomaniac dream

[autumn sorrel]

True but Zhukov have to play around Stalin plus be pretty submissive

[strong plank]

2. "the japanese were fully prepared to fight the americans to the last unarmed child, but the soviets? that's a completely different situation that they didn't want to deal with"

[remote monolith]

being a war hero didn't really stop Zhukov from getting reassigned to basically Antarctica and losing his prestigious command postwar

and this happened only a year after the war end

[strong plank]

either implication is

laughable

[autumn sorrel]

Seeing that Japanese considered both as Gaijins, I don't think they make a distinction of whose blood they spill

[eternal veldt]

Belorussiya's nowhere near 29%.

[autumn sorrel]

Soviet politics, promotion on paper but exile in reality

[eternal veldt]

Soyuz was the most advanced at 20%.

[runic ermine]

Yeah japan did plan make literal child fight with sticks

[unkempt sedge]

Credit where credit is due. He was able to be one of the few that could get into a tango with Stalin and live to tell the tale.

[runic ermine]

My bad

But point stands. Nowhere close to being done

[runic ermine]

Yeah.

[unkempt sedge]

Not to mention Sovetskaya Ukraina was captured.

[runic ermine]

When will we see her in azur lane

[remote monolith]

either way yeah, the Soviets had no real way of directly threatening the Home Islands, the real important bits that Japan already stripped Manchuria out of the best parts in favor of defending, the Japanese expected a Soviet attempt on Hokkaido and prepared accordingly, and they don't really factor into the Imperial Cabinet's decision to unconditionally surrender given their previous incapability to even pull off a small scale invasion without a hitch

[strong plank]

yeah the soviets-caused-the-surrender myth falls apart when you think about it for more than 15 minutes

[autumn sorrel]

Nah, he was too vital and too popular at that point. None of other generals can match Zhukov reputation and image. Stalin can't touch him as long as the war still going on and German isn't defeat yet.

[unkempt sedge]

Hate me all you want, but I do think the Soyuz class is a handsome design...shame they were not built.

[runic ermine]

The nukes were more impactful

[runic ermine]

Same

[junior trench]

The nukes were the impact

[autumn sorrel]

Zhukov still play ball but mostly bc he know damn well Stalin will deal with him after the war so he present himself as much loyal as possible

[junior trench]

The Soviet invasion was a known factor

Anyway

[runic ermine]

Literally

[junior trench]

heavy fighting occurred. The Japanese 1st
Area Army made a fighting withdrawal to 
the west and southwest as planned. The 
attacking Soviet ground forces advanced 
quickly; however, no clean breakthrough 
was established before the Japanese sur-
render. The difficult terrain, rains, effective 
rear-guard Japanese resistance and skilful-
ly blown bridges in the face of tank-heavy 
vanguards proved to be obstacles, which 
made it impossible to pursue the with-
drawing Japanese.51 A major set-piece de-
fensive battle was fought by the Japanese 
126th and 135th Divisions, both of which 
had fallen back to new positions anchored 
at Mutanchiang, from 13 August to 16
August. The battle ended when the two 
Japanese divisions were ordered by the 1st
Area Army Commander to disengage and 
withdraw to the west and southwest, leav-
ing behind one regiment which did not re-
ceive the withdrawal order.52 It later suf-
fered heavy casualties.53 Rather remarka-
bly, the two Japanese divisions, with sup-
posedly no more than 30 artillery pieces 
together, held off two Soviet field armies
(5th and 1st Red Banner) for four days. The 
date of 16 August is also past the surrender 
broadcast, but we will leave that fact for 
the final analysis.```

[autumn sorrel]

The 2nd one, you mean. Japan scoff at the 1st one but the implication that American can make more make them pause

[unkempt sedge]

The atomic bombs gave Japan the wake up call to reality unfortunately. The Soviet invasion of Manchuria also made it worse.

In essence, both brought Japan to surrender, but the former did the most.

[junior trench]

No

Jesus fucking Christ no

[runic ermine]

That's what I said

[junior trench]

The Soviets were a non factor

[remote monolith]

again, the Soviet Invasion had basically no input whatsoever, they cannot threaten the Home Island as it is, and Manchuria was already regarded as a lost cause by then, as the best elements of the Kwantung Army were already ferried or being ferried off before the invasion even begun

[junior trench]

Soviet Operational Art: Narratives on Manchuria, 1945 | Johan Elg

[runic ermine]

And the rest were kinda curb stomped

[remote monolith]

which was planned

[strong plank]

to believe that it was the soviets, you basically have to believe that the prospect of losing parts of manchuria mattered more to the japanese high command than losing 2 major cities and logistical hubs in 2 single bombing raids

[remote monolith]

because the Japanese had no intentions outside of delaying the Soviets until the majority of their best formations were safely out of reach, which happened despite the Soviets efforts

[autumn sorrel]

Manchu and Korea, even China can be discard as far as Japan High Command can concerned, Soviet invasion of those place doesn't carry much impact as Okinawa or Iwo Jima. And even if Soviet force land on Home Islands? Just more enemy to kill in their view

[strong plank]

basically that the high command valued manchuria over their own home islands

which

[junior trench]

No

[strong plank]

I mean we all know how they shat themselves after the doolittle raid

[junior trench]

They weren't

I am legit putting up sourced excerpts atm

[runic ermine]

Because it was a wake up call

[junior trench]

comings in their own logistical planning. 
The available supply transports were too 
few to cope with the demand. The road 
conditions were poor and, together with 
the rainy weather, caused severe delays in 
re-supply operations. Estimates of fuel re-
quirements were proved to be totally wrong. 
This severely affected the 6th Guards Tank 
Army in western Manchuria. This mobile 
army which was to operate deep behind 
enemy lines as an operational manoeuvre 
group (OMG) was in fact out of fuel al-
ready on the third day of the operation. It 
had to be re-supplied with emergency air 
transportation of fuel. One peculiar fact 
is that the Soviet logistical planning relied 
heavily on the unrealistic assumption of 
using enemy railroads for troop and sup-
ply transports in Manchuria.54 This rais-
es serious questions of the quality of the 
Soviet logistical planning. Another expla-
nation is that the Soviet attack actually be-
gan before all necessary logistical prepara-
tions were in place. However, by launching 
an attack at an early stage it probably con-
tributed to the creation of surprise.
Three facts, which are more often than 
not, left out of a description of the Soviet 
campaign:
• As for the advance and occupation fol-
lowing 15 August, rear-area troops 
sometimes took control of towns before 
the actual arrival of regular troops.55
This suggests the characteristics of the 
later part of the operation (after the 
Japanese surrender).
• The Soviet airborne landings (50-400
men) took place after the Japanese had 
begun surrendering. This fact seems to 
have more or less disappeared in later 
Soviet sources and has instead been re-
placed with claims that airborne land-
ings ‘disorganized enemy troop com-
mand’.56
• It is only briefly mentioned in Soviet 
sources that the main reason for Soviet 
success was the poor state of the Japa-
nese defences. Instead, Soviet planning 
and execution, ‘well-organized supp-
ly’ and superior equipment are mainly 
credited for the Soviet victory.```

[runic ermine]

21,389 - 83,737 japanese dead depend on who you ask

[junior trench]

Jesus Christ read

Fucking read

And scroll up

[grave ravine]

What paper is this from?

[junior trench]

Scroll up

[eternal veldt]

I'd argue doolittle is less a wake up call and more of an embarrassment for the navy.

[grave ravine]

Ah I saw it, thanks

[strong plank]

the thought (and act) of the home islands being attacked was such a significant emotional event for the japanese that it got the army and navy to cooperate

you don't go from that to

[eternal veldt]

The argument for such a strong navy was the perception that the navy should be able to protect the home islands from any american threats.

[runic ermine]

It showed the Japanese that they could be attacked on their own soil and were vulnerable

[runic ermine]

And that too

[strong plank]

"yeah we just lost 2 cities but as long as we hold a little manchuria we can still fight"

[eternal veldt]

the doolittle raid was just what the army needed to shit in the navy's shoes.

[runic ermine]

But at least the Soviets and Mongolians found unit 731

Burning documents

[junior trench]

low their delaying operational plan, with 
the exception of the 3rd Area Army, it can 
be argued that the Soviet military forma-
tions did not manage to conduct ‘deep op-
erations’. The main committed force for 
the ‘deep battle’ was arguably the capable 
and well equipped Soviet 6th Guards Tank 
Army, which at the time of surrender on 15
August was out of fuel, well to the west of 
the Mukden-Hsinking area. Here the lack, 
miscalculation or neglect of Soviet logisti-
cal preparation was a major factor.```

[strong plank]

imo doolittle disproves the notion that manchuria would hold more weight in the japanese high command's mind than their own home island

[runic ermine]

True because it's well... the home islands

[autumn sorrel]

Nah, they still argue over whose fault was that till the end of the war, what it did was to push Yamamoto Midway plan and IJA major offensive into China to deny airbase for long range bombing into the Home Islands

[eternal veldt]

Hence why I said it is an embarrassment.

[runic ermine]

Source? We kinda asked that earlier

[strong plank]

^

[grave ravine]

#history message

[autumn sorrel]

True, their argumnent sound funny as fuck when I read about it

[grave ravine]

I was just being blind

[runic ermine]

Thanks

[runic ermine]

Same

[junior trench]

of the Japanese, military and civilians, re-
alized as soon as they received the radio 
broadcast that the war was over, and that 
all military offensive actions were to be sus-
pended. With this in mind, we can take a 
closer look at the Soviet military operation 
in conjunction with the Japanese surrender 
timeline. This indicates that the Soviet mil-
itary success is related to the fact that the 
Japanese military more or less ceased mili-
tary operations. From this perspective, the 
Soviet strategic operation into Manchuria 
can be designated more of an administra
tive occupation (or rather a strategic land-
grab) rather than an excellent application 
of operational art against a formidable en-
emy army.
It may be argued that the portrayal of 
Soviet operational art as being success-
ful in the case of Manchuria is part of a 
false narrative, regarding the capability of 
the Red Army. This would primarily serve 
Soviet interests, but also western interests, 
by rating the capacity of the Soviet Union 
as much better than in reality. In fact, dur-
ing the Cold War, the US had a vested inter-
est in portraying the Soviet Union as a ca-
pable military force in wargaming scenar-
ios, analyses and exercises.69 The Soviet-
dominated narrative relies on Soviet sourc-
es mainly published in the late 1960s, i.e. 
in conjunction with the rising Sino-Soviet 
border tension. As a matter of fact, one of 
the earliest US sources on the campaign 
clearly conveys this coincidence and of-
fers a thoughtful warning to later studies.70
Unfortunately, this assessment that the 
Soviet Union was distorting the historical 
records in order to intimate China has not 
made it into later studies. Indeed, Soviet 
propaganda and western (primarily US) 
interests in portraying the Soviet ground 
forces as a capable foe seem to have played 
hand in hand.
Subsequent Soviet naval landing op-
erations to seize the Kurile Islands in late 
August/early September 1945 were marked 
with haste and thus affected by lack of 
preparation and poor execution. Those 
operations succeeded, but only because 
the Japanese were in the process of surren-
dering. The Japanese 91st Division was ac-
tually winning the battle on the northern 
Kurile island of Shimushu causing thou-
sands of Soviet casualties until the order to 
surrender and cease all combat operations 
got through```

[grave ravine]

I don't think the Doolittle raid actually meaningfully impacted the Navy's operational planning before Midway, it clarified the issue that they needed to deal with the US carriers but that was already the top priority

[junior trench]

operation was an example of a successful 
blitzkrieg; a speedy military campaign that 
achieved its strategic objective. The prob-
lem is that this constitutes a false narra-
tive by ignoring the context of the ending 
of the Second World War and the Great 
East Asian War. The contextual surrender 
process of Japan belongs at the very cen-
tre of an analysis on Manchuria in 1945. 
The Soviet military operation thus, did not 
in itself achieve the strategic objective on 
the ground. The Red Army’s rather unex-
ceptional showing on the battlefield, when 
the state of the opponent’s forces is tak-
en into consideration, raises doubts about 
the argument that promotes the Soviet mil-
itary operation into Manchuria as an ex-
ample of successful Soviet operational art.```

[strong plank]

my point is less the operation impact and more the

emotional impact

they panicked

[junior trench]

Incidentally, if you ever get the chance

[grave ravine]

The navy did anyways

[junior trench]

Ask a Japanese language speaking historian about the Japanese attitudes towards the respective events of the atomic bombs and Soviet invasion

Lord knows they've been neglected in the efforts to build the Communist narrative

[unkempt sedge]

Exactly the same as Britain's. Same goes for any island nation.

[autumn sorrel]

Mostly politicking bs at that point, it just reinforce the Navy plan with Midway and allow the 2 service somewhat of a temporary goal to less infighting between themselves.

[strong plank]

my point is that doolittle showed how emotionally potent a strike on the home islands was for the japanese

[eternal veldt]

Not quite. Britain is maintaining a global empire by that point, and the major problem for the UK is not merely just the protection of the home islands, but extends further to the protection of her trade routes along the way.

[strong plank]

and while yes, they had already been bombed for months by the time hiroshima happened

[unkempt sedge]

Still requires a strong navy to do it. Japan was attempting the same thing Britain did, only later and unsuccessfully.

[runic ermine]

But Manchuria was a big soviet victory.
21,389 - 83,737 Japanese dead (depending on your source)
9,780–12,031 Soviets dead
72 Mongolians dead
Collapse of the Japanese puppet states
And a lot of territory captured

[eternal veldt]

It's why the British has set up various stations across the world, from the Far East Indies to China Station.

[junior trench]

Are you just being purposefully obtuse?

[autumn sorrel]

Again, who counting the Japanese lost and are they reliable

[junior trench]

Those casualties happened after fighting had ceased

[strong plank]

^

[eternal veldt]

Yes, but Japan had another perspective after the end of the Russo-Japanese war.

[runic ermine]

That's why I said depending on the source

[junior trench]

And the collapse of the Japanese position was caused by the general end of the war independent of the Soviet operations

[eternal veldt]

Keep in mind the continential policy that japan held and its eagerness towards expanding into Chian proper.

[autumn sorrel]

Imagine Soviet fighting in the hilly terrain of Korea

[eternal veldt]

Russia, in that regard, was the hypothetical enemy, and thus resources should be devoted towards holding off the Russians - that was the IJA's perspective.

[junior trench]

It doesn't matter who's counting the dead when the dead have been killed after military operations ceased

[runic ermine]

No. I provided two numbers from different sources

[junior trench]

And the Manchurian campaign became an occupational land grab

[grave ravine]

Also focussing on casualties ignores the fact that in the end the Soviet invasion largely failed to achieve it's strategic goals

[remote monolith]

dude, yeah the Japanese lost, but they basically more or less expected they're going to get smashed and didn't particularly care if they lost Manchuria by that point because their strategic goal was to preserve strength directed to defenses of the home island, which in this case they SUCCEEDED

[grave ravine]

The Soviets didn't get much of a seat at the surrender table

[eternal veldt]

The navy presents another view, with the USA being viewed as the more likely enemy with deteriorating relationships - that was the IJN's perspective.

[runic ermine]

Probably because the USN was a bigger threat

[autumn sorrel]

Be USSR
Captured prisoner
Use them as slave labor
Not return them until the 50s when you can't bullshit anymore

[eternal veldt]

The Diet sees both arguments, gave each other some funding and power, told them to be good boys, and that was that - hence the power struggle that plagued the government's decisions.

[runic ermine]

Or that one Hungarian guy who was there until like 2002

[eternal veldt]

In the event of Pacific conflict? Yes.

[unkempt sedge]

Hence why the Japanese wanted islands in the Pacific to form an "outer wall" against the U.S.

[autumn sorrel]

That's more like Hungarian be weird with their language

[eternal veldt]

However, Japan also wanted China.

[runic ermine]

But they did get their land grab goal so that's something I guess

[strong plank]

be USSR
capture Kurils
collapse
Russia somehow keeps Kurils in the breakup
maintain claims on them to this day because “fuck you we are strong empire”

[eternal veldt]

Japan already has a few key holdings taken from Imperial Germany as a "victor" of World War I.

[autumn sorrel]

It become their Chicken tendon, in Asian idiom. Too hard to chew but too good to let go.

[unkempt sedge]

They also wanted Siberia in the beginning, hence Khalkin Gol. If they succeeded there, they may not have attacked Pearl Harbor.

[eternal veldt]

Further expansion is to secure those holdings.

[autumn sorrel]

Nukes provide you a lot of leeway

[remote monolith]

the Soviets wanted to break the Japanese forces in Manchuria and possibly prevent them reinforcing the Home Islands with even more men. In this regard August Storm didn't fulfill both goals completely since heavy fighting remained until the surrender was announced, which means they didn't succeed in quickly decapitating the Japanese defence and didn't advance as quickly as they had hoped, AND the Kwantung Army's best assets were already off the continent for the actual strategical goal of the Japanese Empire

[grave ravine]

Eh, the IJN was totally willing to drag Japan into war with the US either way

[junior trench]

It's honestly hilarious how quickly the Soviet dominated historiography of the Manchurian Campaign falls apart the moment you do something as simple as...
Look at the dates of events taking place

"hey wait, this is after the IJA stopped fighting"

[eternal veldt]

Pearl Harbor is a matter of cascading events - not just Khalkin Gol.

[junior trench]

Todd

[autumn sorrel]

When the logistic problem kicking in

[junior trench]

You've got one thing wrong

There wasn't any heavy fighting

The IJA had their plan

And they got away with it

[autumn sorrel]

[junior trench]

They were well on their way to the Korean redoubt when surrender order came

[remote monolith]

the Soviets were held up in multiple locations anyway so something must have happened

[junior trench]

Yes

Blown bridges

Mined roads

[strong plank]

Fuel shortages

[runic ermine]

Still disputed to this day

[grave ravine]

Multiple divisions were being pulled out of Manchuria to the home islands during the Soviet invasion

[junior trench]

Blocked mountain passes

[autumn sorrel]

How strong were the defence on Korea again? I know there are frontier fortress but mostly on terrain and harsh weather?

[grave ravine]

As mentioned the division en route to Hokkaido got submarined

[junior trench]

In the few locations the Soviets did come to grips with IJA forces conducting holding actions

The Soviets came off worse

[runic ermine]

Yeah so the Hokkaido defense would have been a division weaker

[junior trench]

"Logi where?"

[unkempt sedge]

I believe Russia was willing to give two of those islands back to Japan in the early 2000's. Stupid idea for Japan not to accept. At least they would get SOME of them back.

Better than nothing.

[junior trench]

Mountains

[autumn sorrel]

"Wdym there no fuel truck?"

[junior trench]

Tunnels

The whole shebang

[autumn sorrel]

Still more than enough to hold up and beat back any Soviet invasion on the island

[junior trench]

ed by both narratives, there was no further 
major fighting since the 6th Guards Tank 
Army was unable to continue the advance 
towards the central cities due to a lack 
of fuel. Forward detachments did reach 
Mukden and Changchun (Hsinking) on 21
August – a full six days after the surrender 
broadcast. Further movement by the 6th 
Guards Tank Army to Port Arthur was in 
fact conducted by railway using comman-
deered trains from the Japanese.48 ```

[grave ravine]

Yeah, the mobile force was only 2 infantry divisions and an armor regiment rather than 3

[runic ermine]

Some countries say that it's Japanese territory like Ukraine and Japan
Russia says its theirs. The majority of the people on the islands idenify as Russian
It's a big mess that's gonna take a long time to get solved

[grave ravine]

It still massively overmatches the landing force

[autumn sorrel]

[junior trench]

Six days late on a stolen train

[runic ermine]

I'm curious about your name. What does it translate to?

[autumn sorrel]

"trains" we can't be that semantic

[strong plank]

They’re not Russia’s to give

[unkempt sedge]

Almost impossible to solve. Plus, Russia had those islands before the Russo-Japanese war. Same goes for South Sakhalin as well.

From the Russian perspective, they took it back.

[junior trench]

fortified city of Hailar in a coup de main
with the 205th Tank Brigade. However, the 
Japanese 80th Brigade (deemed to have an 
effective strength of 15 % of a Japanese di-
vision of 194149) proved effective enough 
to force the Red Army to actually with-
draw the 205th Tank Brigade from the city. 
Furthermore, the Japanese 119th Division 
managed to complete its withdrawal from 
Hailar to the east, an ordered and pre-
planned re-deployment, to a blocking po-
sition in the mountain passes. In short: the 
Japanese opposition by the 4th Army ‘se-
verely hindered the Soviet advance’.50```

[runic ermine]

Like I said: big mess

[eternal veldt]

Speaking of logistics, this one never stops being amusing.

[strong plank]

Like

Truman himself said they were to be returned to Japan

[runic ermine]

Yeah that's probably why Russia says they're Russian. Plus the majority of people living there are Russian

[strong plank]

And then the treaty of San Francisco acknowledged them as Japanese

[autumn sorrel]

Tbf, all three of the drivers were drunk that day

[runic ermine]

But then that begs the question: What about all the Russians on the islands?

[eternal veldt]

Less drunk, just more audacious

[junior trench]

They can stay or move

Lord knows if they stay their life will improve

[desert agate]

most of them arent ethnic russians

[autumn sorrel]

I dunno, learning Kanji might akin to torture to some

[junior trench]

And just gonna cite this but again...

heavy fighting occurred. The Japanese 1st
Area Army made a fighting withdrawal to 
the west and southwest as planned. The 
attacking Soviet ground forces advanced 
quickly; however, no clean breakthrough 
was established before the Japanese sur-
render. The difficult terrain, rains, effective 
rear-guard Japanese resistance and skilful-
ly blown bridges in the face of tank-heavy 
vanguards proved to be obstacles, which 
made it impossible to pursue the with-
drawing Japanese.51 A major set-piece de-
fensive battle was fought by the Japanese 
126th and 135th Divisions, both of which 
had fallen back to new positions anchored 
at Mutanchiang, from 13 August to 16
August. The battle ended when the two 
Japanese divisions were ordered by the 1st
Area Army Commander to disengage and 
withdraw to the west and southwest, leav-
ing behind one regiment which did not re-
ceive the withdrawal order.52 It later suf-
fered heavy casualties.53 Rather remarka-
bly, the two Japanese divisions, with sup-
posedly no more than 30 artillery pieces 
together, held off two Soviet field armies
(5th and 1st Red Banner) for four days. The 
date of 16 August is also past the surrender 
broadcast, but we will leave that fact for 
the final analysis.```

[junior trench]

They probably already know it

[strong plank]

Also the offer was 2 islands in exchange for Japan recognizing the rest as Russian territory

Which

[desert agate]

theyre a smattering of ethnicities, both Ainu natives and those who were sent there by the Soviets

[strong plank]

Would’ve been a terrible idea to agree to

[desert agate]

very few Russians actually live there

[autumn sorrel]

Isn't the place become a prison colony at some point?

[junior trench]

Stop huffing the same shit as KL

[eternal veldt]

Aren't we venturing just a little close to politics now?

[runic ermine]

Wow has a 60% Ukrainian population

[desert agate]

i wonder how they got there

[runic ermine]

True

[unkempt sedge]

I agree. Best not go there.

[runic ermine]

Yeah we shouldn't go there

[autumn sorrel]

Where do you think they put the dissidents away

[runic ermine]

Siberia

Cuz it's cold, depressing, and dangerous

[desert agate]

in any case, fact is that theres no feasible way the Soviets are launching a successful invasion of Hokkaido beyond a minor foothold

[runic ermine]

I also forgot that we were originally talking about that

[eternal veldt]

You know what would be slightly interesting?

[runic ermine]

Lmao

[desert agate]

the only developed port on the island is well outside the ability for the Soviets to attack and that leaves them stuck with offloading ships from shore

[eternal veldt]

The remaining scraps of the IJN sortie to deal with whatever invasion fleet the Soviets have

[runic ermine]

It also depends on a few other things

[desert agate]

it really doesnt

[runic ermine]

Or to fight the USN and Australian navy

[autumn sorrel]

Better yet, how are they gonna expected to land heavy equipment and transport them to other place on the Island

[desert agate]

this invasion, as with all military campaigns, lives and dies on logistics

[runic ermine]

How experienced is the garrison and can the Japanese stop soviet supply efforts?

Mainly the second one

[desert agate]

the Soviets do not have the experience, nor capability to land in Hakodate
it cannot happen

[autumn sorrel]

Like, Rumoi is small fishing village back then and I doubt Soviet have the capability to construct a loading port temporary like how Allied did on D-day

[desert agate]

the Allies spent 3 years planning for D-day and even then they struggled against an opponent who did not have aerial superiority

[eternal veldt]

D-day had spare old battleships literally scuttled to become Mulberry harbours

It'd be interesting to see where the Soviets get those.

[desert agate]

the Soviets do not have portable harbours for unloading, there are very few places in Hakodate that are feasible for a portable harbour even if they did have one

[autumn sorrel]

Imagine, Soviet pushing tank off tranpost ship and pray water shallow enough for those tank to fork through

[runic ermine]

And failed at Dieppe

[desert agate]

Hakodate is for all intents and purposes invulnerable to a Soviet landing

[runic ermine]

Hakodate?

[autumn sorrel]

And why do you think so much stuff was include on D-day?

[desert agate]

yes, Hakodate, the only developed port that can support large ships on the entire island of Hokkaido

[runic ermine]

Because of lessons learned from Dieppe

[autumn sorrel]

He didn't know that Hokkaido have developed airfield to house Kamikaze and Attack Aircraft

[remote monolith]

and that Hokkaido is well within in range of Honshu-based aircraft

[autumn sorrel]

Precisely, and what experience does Soviet have to help prepare for the landing?

[runic ermine]

I'm still learning

[desert agate]

the only other potential landing site is Otaru and it is not equipped for unloading large ships constantly

[runic ermine]

Kuril and South Sakalin

[runic ermine]

And Rumoi is too small right?

[desert agate]

even today it's just a fishing port with some ferry services, no cranes at all

[autumn sorrel]

That's like days apart and Soviet system isn't keen on experience sharing

[desert agate]

Rumoi doesnt have the facilities

[remote monolith]

how the fuck can they even learn from Kurils and the Sakhalin, when Kurils were only chosen because they couldn't fucking do it on Hokkaido

[runic ermine]

Is it at least a good place to visit

[autumn sorrel]

Even if be generous and giving Soviet few more months to plan, all of their plan will either be half ass or come to the same conclussion that they better off waiting for Overlord and asking USN to ferry them over.

[desert agate]

its only large enough to handle a few ships a day, not nearly enough to support a large landing force, and without cranes and dockside trains, unloading is going to be a very slow, very manual process

[remote monolith]

Rumoi has been repeatedly covered above

[desert agate]

dunno, didnt go North of Sapporo

[remote monolith]

TLDR its a shitstain of a landing site that's literally a mini-Gallipolli

Hit should know about this

and the only way towards the inland is a single road that's a couple bombs away from being unserviceable

[autumn sorrel]

Omg, imagine a Soviet Anzio but much worse

The entire landing force is basically besiege on their landing zone

[runic ermine]

Also this in korea
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seishin_Operation

[runic ermine]

So they'd have to break seige to succeed correct?

[remote monolith]

You really haven't been paying attention at all and ignoring people have you, bloody hell mate

[desert agate]

a landing at Rumoi would be reminiscient of the logistical capacity of Port Moresby, however Moresby had 2 advantages, 1 being that it started out as a friendly port, not an opposed landing and 2 being that it had a friendly airfield through which meant the town wasnt entirely reliant on ships for logistics

[autumn sorrel]

The assault force easily occupied the port and the surrounding urban areas, taking advantage of the enemy's complete surprise. However, the Japanese soon launched a counterattack, at first disorderly and fragmented. The Japanese command soon restored order and launched an organized offensive against the landing force. The position of the scouts immediately deteriorated: they were cut off from the coast in an unfamiliar city and the Japanese also succeeded in cutting the detachment in two. By 18:30 pm, seven more torpedo boats landed 90 more soldiers (a machine-gun company) away from the battlefield. This unit could not break through to join the reconnaissance detachment, suffered heavy losses and was forced to conduct a defensive battle. Thus, the situation for the Soviet landing force became critical and they were threatened with annihilation.

[runic ermine]

I know it was a few days apart I just wanted to add it

For comparison purposes

[strong plank]

they don’t have the necessary training or logistics, and their landing point is an absolute nightmare that would basically amount to a shooting gallery for the Japanese
”so you’re saying if they broke the siege they could pull it off”

[eternal veldt]

The wikipedia article quite literally says they are at threat of annihilation after the Japanese counterattacked....

[strong plank]

We’re all just circling around the fact that

[desert agate]

how are the Soviets able to get through Japanese lines at all

[strong plank]

Even the Soviets realized it was suicidal

[desert agate]

and again, even if the Japanese did lose in the initial landing, which i find to be unlikely, the Soviets aren't able to move much beyond their beach head with existing logistical capacity

[autumn sorrel]

It take tanks, naval fire support and air superiority to give the Soviet the near victory in Chongjin, what make you think they can make do with barely nothing at Rumoi?

[remote monolith]

yeah we're basically just doing circles despite the literal mountain of direct quotations from reliable sources contradicting any possible way a landing on Hokkaido will succeed

[eternal veldt]

Constant naval fire support, I might add

[autumn sorrel]

And Chongjin already have a somewhat facility to help landing troop and it almost a shit show

[runic ermine]

Did it have a crane?

[eternal veldt]

Doing a few pew pew salvos is not going to silence a fortification

[runic ermine]

True. Dday was very evident of that

[autumn sorrel]

What?

[runic ermine]

A crane to unload stuff

[eternal veldt]

You need both heavy artillery for silencing strongly fortified targets, and smaller naval vessels for constant on site support

The Soviets have a bloody destroyer only to do all that lifting

[runic ermine]

Out of curiosity what destoryer was it?

[eternal veldt]

For comparison, D-day had several battleships, multiple cruisers and destroyers on site to ensure the beachheads are secure

[unkempt sedge]

Artillery has the benefit of stunning and supressing targets. Plus you need A LOT of shells, plus constant air support. Soviet Pacific fleet had neither of those.

[autumn sorrel]

Are you really trying to argue with me about how to unloading stuff when the example that you provide mention the Soviet have a very favorable position with stronger force and somehow still narrowly lost when you try to apply it to an even worse scenario?

[runic ermine]

Yes?

[autumn sorrel]

I am slapping my face rn

[eternal veldt]

It doesn't matter, it is insufficient. Neither do I know on the spot.

[autumn sorrel]

I haven't found myself this speechless in yrs

[runic ermine]

Because despite the near disaster and analalation it was still a success

[runic ermine]

Sorry

[unkempt sedge]

Plus, you also need the aircraft to carry out sorties and there were no airfields of that scale in the Far East. Plus, the types of aircraft needed. Most Soviet fighters did not have the range. That includes lend lease planes as well. Bombers are the same as they were mostly all twin engine.

[runic ermine]

So the Japanese would have air superiority

[autumn sorrel]

It was a success bc the FREAKING JAPANESE COUNTER ATTACK WAS CALLED OFF BC THEY WERE FUCKING SURRENDERING

Sorry for screaming

[runic ermine]

It's ok

[unkempt sedge]

Only aircraft that MIGHT have worked were the few P-47's given to the USSR, but they did not, as far as I know, have the drop tanks.

[grave ravine]

They probably would have lost at Shumshu too without the surrender

[desert agate]

if the Soviets could build an airfield on the Kurils then they might have air superiority

however

[grave ravine]

And at Shumshu the Soviets had air support, something they wouldn't have at Hokkaido

[runic ermine]

They can't do that on such short notice

[desert agate]

that requires that airfield being constantly supplied with ammunition and fuel and other supplies, not a guarantee given the other requirements of the very limited Soviet logistical capacity

[unkempt sedge]

Soviet Navy did not have those types of Naval Construction units like here
in the U.S. like the Seebees and Marine engineer units.

[grave ravine]

Except they can't because if they go through with the Kuriles landings, they lose a big chunk of the fleet earmarked for Hokkaido

Especially in this hypothetical where Japan doesn't surrender

[autumn sorrel]

You mean, they didn't have time to bring the gulag prisoner and POW there

[runic ermine]

Lmfao

[desert agate]

id further note that the Japanese have a lot of capabilities specifically directed at defeating ships docked in port, especially in Japan itself, such as midget submarines, kamikaze divers and a considerable torpedo boat force

[unkempt sedge]

Penal battalions also hehe.

[grave ravine]

There being a huge small boat force stationed up the coast at Soya

[autumn sorrel]

Nah, they are for combat, the closest thing they would do to engineering is mine clearing

[eternal veldt]

Japan's mass producing the Shin'yo suicide boat at this stage if I recall.

[grave ravine]

Yep, they have around 100 in the Soya region as well

[runic ermine]

Yeah

Mass producing maybe not but producing enough to sink a landing force's important ships yes

[unkempt sedge]

Indeed. Not to mention ALL the aircraft for kamikaze missions hidden in the mountains.

[grave ravine]

Soya happens to be close enough that the small boats and Shin'yo can sortie to Rumoi, although the garrison forces can't because of the way the rail network and geography is

Not that it matters because it's been repeatedly mentioned that the mobile forces are enough to crush the proposed Soviet landing force

[junior trench]

Would be kind of funny to have the Japanese shoot their shot for defending the Home Islands on a bumbling Soviet operation, reducing the amount of shit aimed at the real US landings

[runic ermine]

Why would a bunch of people dying be funny?

[junior trench]

Oh, you're one of those.

[grave ravine]

It doesn't even really do that, because the 5th Area Army is separate from the main defensive forces on Honshu and Kyushu, and is as has been repeatedly mentioned more than capable of stopping the Soviets

[runic ermine]

One of those?

[grave ravine]

And the US IIRC didn't have any Hokkaido ops planned

[junior trench]

Ik

[autumn sorrel]

Sinking a USN formation, in their dream. Sinking a disorganized mob of Soviet ships, too easy.

[junior trench]

Just the absurdity of having all the Japan's prep aimed at the Soviets, and forever turning them off from trying to so much as cross a river of there's opposition

Comedy in absurdity

[runic ermine]

That's what I ment by landing force

[junior trench]

Not quite to the level of Tojokistan

[eternal veldt]

Im honestly not sure about this, especially the way the Kamikazes are told to this time not target carriers, but troop transports.

Which are...significantly more vulnerable and less armed.

[runic ermine]

That's another thing. They'd need to hit a troop transport to sink it and they're much smaller than other ships but then again much less armored

[autumn sorrel]

Seeing how badly fuck the Soviet ships were at Shumshu, do you think they can even learn an effective formation of ships when landing troop that quick?

[runic ermine]

Probably not but they'd learn a few things. Evident by changing the order of battle

[eternal veldt]

You can't change an order of battle on the whim.

[autumn sorrel]

Adding more landing force, not altering how their fleet are organize

[grave ravine]

The Soviets aren't even bringing any troops transports to this party

They are just going the whole way in their LCIs

[runic ermine]

Yep. Which creates a new problem

[autumn sorrel]

They use minesweeper and combat ship to transport troop, which make them slow and easier Target for Kamikaze

[eternal veldt]

I'd like to note this is to Giangarch's comment about US ships. I have no faith in a Soviet amphibious operation being successful.

[runic ermine]

Unless they can shoot them down which isn't guaranteed

[grave ravine]

The Soviets lost a minesweeper to the only kamikaze that flew during Shumshu

[runic ermine]

Well thats not good

[tough quail]

why does it feel like you guys have this conversation like every other day lately

[runic ermine]

For the soviets

[eternal veldt]

A kamikaze is unforunately hard to shoot down.

Your only way of stopping it is to blast the plane to pieces.

[autumn sorrel]

Ah, you mean the part "in their dream", I was implying how USN design their formation to maximize their AA and shielding the landing ships and troop ships

[spring briar]

Suffren and Colbert book has arrived

[grave ravine]

Like the more you read about Shumshu the more it becomes clear how incredibly fucked any Soviet opposed landings would have been

[spring briar]

[eternal veldt]

Which, the US found out, is either a VT fuze or a direct hit.

[grave ravine]

Ooh cool

[runic ermine]

Nice

[remote monolith]

because the same person brought it up again and again

[spring briar]

massive criticism from the captain on the armor

no surprise

[eternal veldt]

I'd still be worried against a concentrated Japanese attack on those formations.

[tough quail]

as the resident soviet shill i dunno why this is even a topic for discussion

like

the US was projected to get their teeth punched in trying to land on the home islands

[runic ermine]

Hello

[tough quail]

and that was without them knowing there was literally twice as many japanese soldiers waiting for them than they thought were there

[autumn sorrel]

True, it is scary to think that mass Kamikaze were use against troop ship instead at Okinawa and Iwo Jima

[spring briar]

woah

Soof interior shots

[runic ermine]

I said it was possible but hard and the Soviet will probably take a lot more casualties

[thorn trail]

did the Japanese have any plans to use the surviving IJN ships in an expected Operation Downfall?

[eternal veldt]

You can't just flatten the airfield either with everything hidden in the mountains. Downfall overall is just fucked to the max.

[runic ermine]

I think so

But I'm not 100% sure

[thorn trail]

like what was the plan for the remaining ships that weren't sunk in the Inland Sea

[remote monolith]

yea, against multiple evidence to the contrary

[autumn sorrel]

Sortie combine with Kamikaze and all sort of suicide craft to inflict as much dmg as possible on any invasion fleet

[spring briar]

man
Suffren interior is literally better than second class on some liners

[tough quail]

the soviets would have to commit to an invasion harder than they committed to berlin, and years in advance to get the transports up to snuff, and it'd still be a complete bloodbath

[remote monolith]

so the argument goes on and on and on

[eternal veldt]

Pics or

[strong plank]

My guy the soviets took heavy casualties on a good day

what part of

[grave ravine]

More casualties than the Americans means every member of the landing force dies multiple times

[strong plank]

“Likely annihilation” needs to be spelled out

[tough quail]

the most prepared landing force in the world was going to get bled out like a stuffed pig in the opening weeks

[grave ravine]

We are literally talking about putting a single rifle division ashore

[tough quail]

the soviets had, like, no experience

[runic ermine]

Likely but not guaranteed?

[thorn trail]

Also if the US were going to have a hard time with their navy, wtf was the Soviet Navy supposed to do?

like seriously

[autumn sorrel]

When they have artillery support and air support

[eternal veldt]

Die

[desert agate]

the Japanese maintained a very large stockpile of fuel ammunition and aircraft to prepare for the US invasion, the Soviets had no hopes

[eternal veldt]

3,000 planes alone

[runic ermine]

Probably

[grave ravine]

It's possible some of them might manage to escape

[thorn trail]

if the US Pacific force were to have a fucking bloodbath for their own landing, what chance does the fucking Soviet Pacific Fleet gonna do

[strong plank]

like this is some strong cope

I want some of whatever he’s having

[autumn sorrel]

We don't 100% on everything bc there are unknown factor but this one is pretty much 99.9999%

[thorn trail]

it's like saying "so you're saying there's a chance?"

[spring briar]

sorry for trash pics

[runic ermine]

Nice

[tough quail]

its not even a big knock on the soviets or whatever, amphibious landings wasn't a thing the red army did very often, and the home islands are virtually the hardest place to invade on the planet

[eternal veldt]

Just saying, if everyone is telling you "This isnt going to work out, the Soviers have a 0.0001% chance of s successful landing"

[autumn sorrel]

Gucci

[grave ravine]

Eh, most of the planes were being retained in Kyushu and Honshu to deal with the Americans, 5th Area Army has like 100 combat planes, and while they would probably receive some reinforcements it wouldn't be too many

[eternal veldt]

Supported with hard evidence

[thorn trail]

3,000 Black Planes of Tojo

[grave ravine]

Not that it matters, 100 is still more than enough

[eternal veldt]

Perhaps its better to just accept that a successful Soviet invasion is very, very unoptimistic

If not outright impossible

[spring briar]

oh
Soof engine room

[tough quail]

i just dunno why it's a pissing match

like, even the western allies probably needed to bank on nukes to pull it off

[eternal veldt]

This is semantics

You are telling me there is a 0.001% chance a soviet invasion would work

[tough quail]

it's basically just swan diving into a woodchipper

[autumn sorrel]

A very slim chance, the type of riding a motocycle 120km/h without your hand on the steering, holding a hi-point with 1 hand and zoom past through a target that is 100m away and somehow hit the target bullseye, that type of chance.

[eternal veldt]

Much like Hood has a 0.001% chance of jacknifing in the water and crush Bismarck like Moby Dick

[spring briar]

Horse
140mm omegalong boi

[tough quail]

based

both to richie's thing and silver's

[spring briar]

awwe no shell pics in book

[autumn sorrel]

Wait, what? When did French have 140mm tank gun?

[spring briar]

a while now

[autumn sorrel]

I thought only the German did?

[spring briar]

the germans have a 130

[tough quail]

red army experimental Ultra-T-34 with sixteen yak engines strapped to it ramps out of vladivostok

lands in tokyo

[grave ravine]

I do think it's important not to conflate the home islands defense force with the Hokkaido-Kuriles 5th Area Army, Hokkaido is much less defended than Kyushu or Honshu

[autumn sorrel]

New Leclerc?

[spring briar]

Ascalon

[eternal veldt]

Its called the Type 59, thank you

[grave ravine]

But 5th Area Army still easily overmatches the Soviets

[tough quail]

iirc it's the same story as the 130mm

T-14 showed up

everyone shit themselves

big gun made

[autumn sorrel]

It gonna be expensive as hell again, ain't it?

[tough quail]

then they just kind of sat on it because its overkill and expensive, just like the 130

[spring briar]

it's not even necessary

T-14 is nowhere near in full production

[eternal veldt]

Its just bone chilling when the order is to

"use nukes tactically on beachheads"

[spring briar]

and NATO penetrators are currently more than enough

[eternal veldt]

"land troops on irradiated nuclear wasteland"

[autumn sorrel]

Honestly, I just want to see it in action and how the concept play out irl

[tough quail]

tfw literally the entire invasion force will die

all of them

all of them

[grave ravine]

Like it wouldn't have been easy, but a landing in Northern Hokkaido would be very doable for the USN without any of the crazy shit needed for Honshu or Kyushu

[autumn sorrel]

They can land at Rumoi and construct a floating dock in less than a day

[grave ravine]

But Hokkaido was fundamentally a backwater, the way to winning the war was invading Kyushu and Honshu

[eternal veldt]

Was about to say thats not the seat of power

Its like invading Florida rather than New York

[spring briar]

bro

that

wow

nut

(120mm shard)

[grave ravine]

Cool

[tough quail]

toot

[autumn sorrel]

Another longboi?

[spring briar]

like

[tough quail]

i love backronyms

[spring briar]

NATO is currently using the full case length

while russia is forced to have much shorter penetrators

because two piece

[autumn sorrel]

Stare at soviet auto loader limit penetrator length

[spring briar]

so
it's fine to look into 140 and 130 mm guns
but it's not needed yet for production

holy shet
you can see the moment after the shell penetrated the hole in the armor blocks is still yellow hot and burning

[autumn sorrel]

0:17?

Or 0:11?

[spring briar]

0:11

[autumn sorrel]

Damn

[unkempt sedge]

Ditto.

[junior trench]

the Franco-American 140mm is the NATO standard for the next step up in tank gun caliber btw

Germany put out a 130mm just... because?

[spring briar]

🇫🇷 🤝 🇺🇸

[junior trench]

idk

RhM is a cursed entity

[spring briar]

maybe to quickly attract investors?

[unkempt sedge]

Exactly. Reminds me of a saying someone told If you want to end a war quickly. You aim for the head not the leg. Kyushu and Honshu were the places to be. Not Hokkaido.

[spring briar]

and a very quickly thrown together concept with wacky stuff that's only there to placate the Ukraine war copers
like the drone operator

absolute waste of space

like reduces the already low 20 rounds to

10

[junior trench]

if you ignore the 48 hour delay, yeah, you could call it that.

after 48 hours you enter the levels of radiation where you'd be hard pressed to find a statistical increase in future cancer diagnoses compared to any number of other things cause cancer back in 1940s warfare

or just outright death

like the

checks notes

gas mask penetrating Cyanogen Chloride bazooka rockets

[spring briar]

Soon this in WT

[strong plank]

The more I stare at the KF-51 the more cursed it looks

The bigass turret

[junior trench]

"ammo where?"

[grave ravine]

The Hungarian KF-51 is even more cursed

It's literally just a Leo 2 with extra steps

[spring briar]

Literally 10 rounds gone for a nerd

[junior trench]

oh yeah

Richie

did you see I found a powerpoint of the "our ammo doesn't burn" tests the germans are citing for DM63/73

[autumn sorrel]

Does it even possible to both control drone and command tank at the same time?

[junior trench]

and it's just generic insensitive munitions testing

[spring briar]

Ayyyy HSF used the same cope

Send it

[strong plank]

Don’t get me wrong I think drone-tank integration is a very solid concept

I just

[autumn sorrel]

Adding more stuff for tank commander to do remind me the old concept of giving crew more workload than they can possibly do

[strong plank]

Don’t think it needs to be part of the tank

[spring briar]

“Doesnt matter that our battlecruisers’ magazines got hit, our ammo only burns”

[junior trench]

the only difference is the german ammo comes in peg and hole interlocked packaging

[strong plank]

I feel like it’d make more sense to attach that capability to an ifv

[junior trench]

which stopped it from yeeting shit around

[strong plank]

And make it a specific c2 variant

[junior trench]

but otherwise DM63 is just generic insensitive munition

[strong plank]

Add a 3rd crew member for it

[junior trench]

and you'll note

it still burns

[autumn sorrel]

It is solid but it should be a organic drone control team that provide battlefield surveillance and scouting for tank rather than adding more workload and stuff to distract tank commander

[junior trench]

even out in the open

and not when confined inside a small space

which would magnify the heat and pressure effects on the surrounding ammo

which isn't in the packaging like these tests

[desert agate]

heh

[strong plank]

I feel like you could even just

Bake the drone capability into the inevitable cavalry/scout variant you’ll end up making for your ifv

[junior trench]

I'll peg your hole cunt

[autumn sorrel]

Hmm, a drone carrier?

[spring briar]

Deflagration cope honestly

[strong plank]

Like, a recon drone

In terms of loitering munitions, idk

[unkempt sedge]

Looks like something out of a diesel-punk science-fiction film.

https://youtu.be/EhKenDU-dyY?si=AYx7uPimq8l-j1NO

[spring briar]

You can carry those on ifv’s

[strong plank]

It’s gonna be really funny if/when rheinmetal loses XM-30

GDLS sweep

[spring briar]

WHAT
is the velocity on the object 292's shell
fucking 1980 MPS
WHAT

[strong plank]

army adopts Griffin variant for MPF because of its commonality with the Abrams
army adopts griffin variant for XM-30 because of its commonality with MPF

[autumn sorrel]

I mean, it already somewhat a thing with Orlan Series of drones, dunno about making IFV specifically to transport them but drone scouting has been a thing since 2010s

[tribal mortar]

yeah

[spring briar]

that barrel is not living too long

I believe that that's also just too fast for the dart to handle

[tribal mortar]

sekrit documents

[spring briar]

since its tip is just exploding on impact from the shockwaves

[spring briar]

[junior trench]

since when has physics stopped the snail

stares at the 88/128mm APDS which shattered in every irl test

[spring briar]

and then they only gave the 152 695 mm of pen

👏

brainrot

[grave ravine]

wait WTF??

[spring briar]

yea

utter bs

[subtle prawn]

https://fxtwitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1752011227746689452

[wintry moat]

Wooow

that delay on the sound

[junior trench]

not a delay

the mic just can't handle the noise until later into the sound

[cinder escarp]

It's fast, but not the only gun to hit 2km/s

The JSW/Daikin 135mm did as well.

[spring briar]

[cinder escarp]

The NzPk-140 was 1870 m/s

afaik

[unkempt sedge]

Well well well.....look what came in the mail.

Time to read!

[spring briar]

Chinese right?

[spiral cedar]

USN experience with kamikazes attacking the fast carrier task forces was that if a kamikaze made it through the CAP, it had better than even odds of hitting a ship. And that's against 1944-1945 US carrier task force AA, meaning ships slathered in 5" guns firing VT shells, 40mm Bofors, 20mm Oerlikons, etc. not barely armed landing ships with a handful of manually aimed machine guns. The landings are beyond Soviet land-based CAP range, which means no fighter cover either in the final leg of the journey.

Not at all a recipe for success

[spiral cedar]

It was, much like the Soviet invasion of Manchuria, a success because it occurred after the surrender of the Japanese government, and because the Japanese government ordered its troops to stand down and surrender their arms. The Japanese defenders weren't even supposed to be fighting back, and they surrendered only after being told by their government to stop fighting, not because the Soviet assault left them no choice but to surrender.

It's putting the cart before the horse to say the successes of the Soviet invasions would be representative of their likely performance if Japan had not surrendered because they only happened as they did because the Japanese government had already surrendered

Reversing cause and effect

Zhukov himself had told Stalin before the nuclear bombings that he'd need 24 divisions and a year of preparation to take Hokkaido. The proposal to land at Rumoi only existed at all because Japan had already surrendered. Attempting to invade Hokkaido without a Japanese surrender would have required abandoning invading Manchuria at all, let alone the fact that the assault shipping available was only sufficient to land and supply for combat a single division, not twenty-four that Zhukov felt was needed. And a single division (with no initial tank support and barely any artillery, given the lack of assault shipping) ain't gonna seize an island the size of Hokkaido no matter what appeals to Soviet strength of arms one might declare.

That's not a recipe for a hard-fought battle against steep odds and a high casualty rate. That's a recipe for being besieged by the defenders with a substantial numerical superiority while your invasion shipping is attrited by air attack and mines as your "administrative landing" becomes a pocket of political hostages that lacks the food and ammunition to keep fighting

It was, indeed, because the Japanese fought back at Sakhalin that the idea of landing a division on Hokkaido was scrapped altogether (by Stalin himself). Not even Stalin could look at the mess of the Shumshu landings and think he could get away with trying to sneak some Soviet forces onto Japanese home islands in order to get political brownie points during post-surrender negotiations.

[visual rover]

This photo from 2022 i have visit “De Zeven Provinciën class ADCF-Frigate: HNLMS Tromp (F-803)” MarineDagen (Days of the Royal Nederlands Navy) in Den Helder, Netherlands

[spring briar]

Schattig bootje

[cinder escarp]

Apologies for the late reply, but NpZk-140 (I never get the acronym right) was the German 140.

[spring briar]

Oooh

I remember

[subtle prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyBGRbsidFc

[manic latch]

Good good

[manic latch]

Cmon Rich

Soviets loved high velocity

[manic latch]

In the 50's the Soviets wanted a smaller caliber anti-tank gun (85mm) with a muzzle velocity of 3000m/s, before they realised such a feat was not feasible they planned a 12100-13900mm (12-14m) long barrel on the Obj. 279.

3000MPS my beloved

Tho not sure if this long barrel makes it reach 3000

Maybe more closer to 2k?

[manic latch]

152mm M-69 for example was a 9.45 meter barrel, had shell velocity of 1,720 m/s for APSD

longest gun of any type ever installed in a fully enclosed armoured fighting vehicle.

[unkempt sedge]

Hehe look familiar?

[manic latch]

Yup I have the book as well

[unkempt sedge]

It's good. Just browsing through it atm. Will really dive in tomorrow.

Still waiting for the authors crusier book that he's working on.

I also managed to get a copy of this book. Been wanting it for ages. I believe this is what my fellow IJN enthusiasts call "The Crusier Bible." It should arrive in a few days.

[mental tapir]

Hey, so I'm apparently more than three years late to this thing, but does anyone happen to have a copy or link to the complete version of this essay of Jaba's? #history message

In the spirit of the Soviet Invasion argument rehashing

[subtle prawn]

https://twitter.com/thef35/status/1751969699615698953

F-35 Lightning II (@thef35) on X

The F-35 is Coming to the Czech Republic! ⚡

The government signed an LOA officially marking its intent to procure 24 F-35A aircraft. This makes them the 18th nation to join the program.

Twitter · Jan 29, 2024, 2:05 PM

[ivory ridge]

19 confirmed operator nations

Pierre Sprey be seething in the afterlife

[eager dove]

Reformers and Gr*pen shills on suicide watch

[remote monolith]

https://tenor.com/view/shrimp-incredible-krill-crab-gif-4661271430329690317

[wintry moat]

Jesus

sadly

my uncle is this kinda conspiracy theorist

[spring briar]

Doesn’t mean it would work

[manic latch]

https://tenor.com/view/money-smell-sus-gif-23801020

[manic latch]

[junior trench]

ignoring the actual point

as usual

[manic latch]

Average Cleve jumpscare

[remote monolith]

stuff like this are pretty common view yeah

pretty unfortunately

[visual rover]

Het ‘baseballpet’ kom uit fregat: Zijner. Majesteits. De Zeven Provinciën (F802)
The ‘baseball cap’ from frigate: HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën (F-802)

[manic latch]

@delicate beacon

[spring briar]

Where are the soft stats

Gun elevation speed

Dispersion

Ammo capacity

Cost

Traverse speed

[manic latch]

Things you Count is more about turret

2A83 is a gun

[manic latch]

2A83 gun on the carriage of a B-4 howitzer during testing

On T-72

[unkempt sedge]

https://youtu.be/d5qJfU3Xnig?si=1q5uCXVwJl2gZPtN

https://youtu.be/0DUd-sNBcWY?si=a_Si-F4htem3L8UQ

[spring briar]

Well

Tanks have turrets

[remote monolith]

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/29/1227574179/amelia-earharts-lost-plane-howland-island

Amelia Earhart's long-lost plane possibly spotted in the Pacific by exploration team

[unkempt sedge]

So THAT'S what she's based on. Interesting. So she's actually the first Austro-Hungarian (BUILT) ship in game.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novara-class_cruiser

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_64-class_cruiser

[ivory ridge]

that's what's we've been saying since she was announced lol

[desert agate]

yeah none of this is new information lmao

[ivory ridge]

the only new information is her being specifically 65

i guess cuz it was more complete than 64

[unkempt sedge]

Guess I was too lazy to check earlier lol.

Either way I am happy regardless. Finally we get an Austro-Hungarian ship of some kind.

[spring briar]

[unkempt sedge]

Yeah. I've never really followed ROCN procurements and orders Pre-WW1 & prior in general until recently.

[ivory ridge]

first austro hungarian ship
built in "italy"

What did the devs mean by this

[unkempt sedge]

(Angry Italian noises)

[ivory ridge]

Yes that's me I'm the Italian

Also half Triestinian

[unkempt sedge]

(BATTLE OF THE ISONZO RIVER INTENSIFIES!!!!!)

[ivory ridge]

[unkempt sedge]

12 times

"Built in Italy yet crewed by mostly Croats."

JK

On another topic. These men will always get my respect!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arditi

[spring briar]

[autumn sorrel]

Pizza Supremacy

[unkempt sedge]

Oh wow! It came in early. Now I finally have the IJN Crusier Bible. I got some reading to do.

[heady sail]

Probably just meant in Italy, the geographical location.

What I don't get is why they give you a Littorio gun in the event.

Huffing copium
First italian UR in February, maybe?

[ivory ridge]

I mean yeah i know it wasnt Italy back then

[heady sail]

Basically the whole Austria-Hungarian navy was also Italian, both the ships and the sailors.
That's why after WWI, Italy sort of had more dockyards than the steel mills could produce steel for.

Quite the contrary of France, where the bottleneck of the naval production was in the small number of dockyards.

[spring briar]

you sure?

capital ship construction was rather limited for both countries

and we also had bottlenecks from our steel industry

and afaik our issue was mostly large drydock sizes for capital ships

[subtle prawn]

https://twitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1752426821579161996

U.S. Naval Institute (@NavalInstitute) on X

#OTD in 1946, USS Brooklyn went in commission in reserve and was chosen to be mothballed using new techiques, becoming the first ship of the post-WWII "ghost fleet". The preservation efforts were effective and the cruiser was sold to Chile in 1951 where it served for 41 years.

Twitter · Jan 30, 2024, 8:21 PM

[heady sail]

I meant to say that Italy sort of had the shipbuilding industry of two countries, Austria and Italy, because they absorbed the dockyards of Austria.

They never reorganized the dockyards after WWI, and so the shipbuilding industry was bigger than what the Italian steel mills could provide steel for.

I was talking of the prelude of WWII, when both countries were building battleship.

In an article I read that the naval programmes, right before the war, of both the Regia Marina and the Marine Nationale were above the financial and industrial possibilities of both countries.

But while in Italy there were no problems in the shipbuilding industry, the upstream industry wasn't capable of providing all the materials for the construction of all the ships, in France apparently the main problem was in the insufficient shipbuilding industry.

[spring briar]

Source

I know large drydock capacity was an issue for large warship construction

[heady sail]

Excerpt the article " DALLE “LITTORIO” ALLE “IMPERO” Navi da battaglia, studi e programmi navali in Italia nella seconda metà degli anni Trenta " by Augusto De Toro.

"Ultimately, it is easy to see traits in common between the naval programs of the two Latin powers, especially in the inspiring concepts, now that the French Navy was also oriented towards the construction of large ships, and the efforts of their leaders, Cavagnari and Darlan, to affirm and defend them: the first must above all overcome the constraints deriving from the country's currency situation; the second was the resistance of the government and parliament, which was reluctant to invest huge resources in naval construction, given that, in the coalition war that was looming, the greatest threat to France came from the land front.
It was, therefore, natural that the government's main attention was focused on strengthening the Army and Air Force, considering that the Royal Navy guaranteed a large superiority over the Axis Navies in all theaters.
Furthermore, both programs were placed above the financial and industrial possibilities of both powers: in Italy there were no problems for the shipbuilding industry, but the upstream industry did not appear capable of satisfying the supplies necessary for the contemporary construction of many ships;
in France, however, the main bottleneck appears to lie precisely in the insufficient equipment of the shipbuilding industry. But, considering the state of implementation of the programs until the outbreak of the war in Europe (September 1939), and until Italy's entry into the war and the capitulation of France (June 1940), the former certainly came out better."

If you wish I can send to you the whole article but is in Italian.

[spring briar]

Sound pretty vague and easy to take out of context

What yards did Italy even inherit from AH

Fiume and Pola?

Maybe Monfalcone?

[heady sail]

The whole article deals about the naval programmes of Italy in the late thirties and the responses of the other European powers. It's really a good article.

[heady sail]

Yes they acquired all the Austrian shipbuilding industry that in the post war period would join in the CDRA(United shipyards of the Adriatic). They were basically comparable to the Italian dockyards of the Tyrrhenian Sea. that's why I was saying that Italy had a double shipbuilding industry.

[spring briar]

For large yards sure

[chilly osprey]

Pola didn't have much in the way of yards itself - it was a base, and heavily diminished in importance in Italy

[spring briar]

There he is

Was just gonna ask

[chilly osprey]

Monfalcone was a significant boon, though for military ships it mostly built submarines. The biggest gain by far was the San Marco shipyard at trieste, i.e. Stabilimento Tecnico Triestino until 1929 (when it became part of CRDA along with the yard at Monfalcone.

[spring briar]

Oh I forgot trieste

[chilly osprey]

This yard pretty rapidly became second only to Ansaldo's establishments around Genoa in terms of construction capability for Italy.

It had, but post-WWI standards, one of the only capital grade construction slips not owned by Ansaldo in all of Italy (after the re-organization from after WWI).

In terms of civil construction, Trieste, Monfalcone, and some of the smaller yards basically doubled Italian construction capacity to 300,000 GRT per year, which was actually more than Italian yards could take advantage of in terms of order volume, even with ships being built for foreign lines.

[grave ravine]

The help for the event still references Gorizia

[chilly osprey]

Ex, you can see here that Italian yards only in one year actually produce at a level that matches or exceeds their theoretical capacity;

[spring briar]

I have similar data for french yards

Navy and private

[chilly osprey]

This over-capacity caused many issues for yards and produced an intensely competive enviorment, and because the order volumes never actually matched this capacity on a regular basis, nor did the supply chains upstream of the yards grow to match this capacity.

If I had more time I could go more into the issue, but there is a lot going on in the background of this period with the yards when it comes to acquisitions, debts, competition over suppliers and for orders, etc.

But unfortunately I have class in about ten minutes

[spring briar]

Ah

Take care

[heady sail]

Yeah, consider that Italy only had two large enough shipyards to build big warships, the one in Trieste, owned by the CRDA and the one in Genoa, owned by the Ansaldo. The one in Genoa built the Littorio and the Impero, and the one in Trieste built the Vittorio Veneto and the Roma.

[spring briar]

Kinda like St Nazaire and Toulon for us

And Brest

[heady sail]

In the late thirties I heard they were also expanding the shipyard in Taranto to possibly build 45,000 tons battleship. But I have conflicting sources some state that these works weren't connected to that, and were simply works to expand the port. All the top admirals were pretty much opposed to anything bigger than the Littorios anyway.
The naval infrastructure was pretty much inadequate for a ship as big as the Littorio already.

[heady sail]

Yeah, exactly. If you think about it France and Italy were, and also are, imo, pretty similar in many aspects.

[heady sail]

Yeah, I saw it now, they talk about Gorizia's event, but that is probably, simply an oversight.

The fact they put the littorio gun, instead is pretty strange imo.

As I was saying, huffing copium for an Italian UR.

[shy grail]

Except for the army and airforce capacity, yeah

[heady sail]

Wdym? Italian air force today is nothing to scoff at. Also the regia aeronautica, I think was pretty comparable with the french air force in 1940.

Besides I was also talking about a higher similarity. I don't want to get poetical or anything but I think, bar the Greeks, the French are the people that have more in common with the Italians.

[shy grail]

Ah ok. But I was talking about production ability, I’m pretty sure the Italians can’t produce something like 1350 fighters in 5 months. Also the army was much more mechanised. Today is different probably, because of various reasons, but France’s GDP is still 40% over Italy after all

[chilly osprey]

Not the shipyard - Taranto didn't have any yards building warships (only Tosi, which built submarines).

What you're thinking of was the new drydock project, which would have been able to accomodate battleships up to 45,000 tons, among other things.

406 meters long, 51.5 meters wide, with a projected completion date of 1942

[heady sail]

Yeah, exactly that, the one promoted by the Admiral Pini, I think.

[heady sail]

Yeah, of course. The maximum theoretical capability for aircraft production in Italy was around 600 aircrafts per month.

France nowadays is a country with a bigger military budget than Italy that has to think about projecting power around the globe. Italy has only to think about the Eastern Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.

[shy grail]

Also has to maintain nukes, yeah

[heady sail]

For sure

[chilly osprey]

As far as production capacity around the start of WWII - Italian aircraft production was actually greater than that of France up to 1939. The big difference is that France started mobilizing for war circa 1937-38, and their production capacity really started picking up in 1939 and going into 1940, and their surge in production came about a year before the Italians.

An additional major advantage the French would find was their ability to procure machine tools abroad to help their mobilization of aircraft production. Italy could not buy these tools to easily increase production, because obviously belligerency as part of the Axis blocked them from British and American markets, and Germany would share barely any, given they lacked enough for themselves too.

The situation was bad enough that Italian plants had to 'ration' hours of operation for their machine tools to make them last longer, rather than going for maximum potential output (no more than 60 hours per work week.

This also robbed the Italians of the advantages of standardization and designs of aircraft that could be rapidly produced with the benefits of intensive use of such tools, and in some ways railroaded them towards keeping the 'artisinal' production methods throughout the war.

There were also some dumb organizational issues that went on during the war, like aircraft engine manufacturers refusing to adopt the mass production techniques already used for automobile engine production. They did not relent until 1942, and by the latter part of that year output rose to 1,100 engines per month, versus the 602-605 that was averaged per month in 1940 and 1941.

But overall, like many things about Italian industry during the war, the biggest issue was that Europe was effectively a 'closed' market. There was no way to gain a large influx of foreign capital (via loans) or imports of raw materials (steel, rarer metals, etc), equipment (machine tools!) and energy (coal, oil) in order to allow for a large wartime industrial expansion - which is what Italy was able to do in WWI.

Germany had little to spare itself and competed with Italy for the limited resources in Europe.

[desert agate]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1752505197610615047?s=46&t=G4roo4qGrPiY6ErCdATjgA

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News (@IndoPac_Info) on X

My naval chart of 9 major navies

#USNavy, Chinese Navy, Russian Navy, Japanese Navy, #IndianNavy, Australian Navy, South Korean Navy, #RoyalNavy & French Navy.

Ships in reserve, very small, obsolete, or under construction are not included.

#PLAN #China #Russia #India…

Twitter · Jan 31, 2024, 1:32 AM

https://aspistrategist.org.au/the-sad-state-of-royal-navy-submarine-capability-and-the-implications-for-australia/

The submarine shipbuilding workforce dropped from 13,000 to 3,000 as building ceased.

The Royal Corps of Naval Constructors was significantly downsized, with a loss of in-house submarine design expertise.

This decision ended the route to early submarine command and charge positions for engineers, making a career in submarines less attractive.

In the early 1990s the RN began a process of decommissioning SSNs to reduce its force from 17 to 6 attack submarines.

This has narrowed the talent base and resulted in a lack of suitable candidates for senior positions

the RN is below critical mass to create the senior leadership for its submarine force.

in 2019 the second submarine squadron was disbanded; all submarines are now based in Faslane, Scotland. The remote location of Faslane and reduced chances of a posting to southern England make submarine careers less attractive.

all submarines have to be refitted in Plymouth/Devonport, the dry docks there are not up to standard. Two submarines, HMS Audacious and HMS Victorious have been alongside in Devonport for months, waiting for dry docks to be refurbished.

The RN could be at a dangerous tipping point where there is such a loss of skills and institutional knowledge, that the situation becomes almost unrecoverable, even if greater resources are available in the future

We should not accept any argument that building the first RAN SSN AUKUS in the UK would be quicker, cheaper or more efficient

suggestions that contemplate building the first of the RAN’s AUKUS submarines in the UK are profoundly disturbing and would condemn us to a UK-based supply chain.

[ivory ridge]

Classifying the fremms as destroyers is... definitely a choice

[desert agate]

i believe the French ones are more AAW oriented anyway

[ivory ridge]

2 of them are

The FREDAs

Essentially there are 3 different french fremms

4 have 16 sylver A43 VLS and 16 A70
2 have 16 A50 and 16 A70
2 have 32 A50

So half of them can only carry the shorter range Aster 15

While the italian ones all have 16 A50

[strong plank]

does a good job at highlighting how the US and China stack up in terms of subs

[autumn sorrel]

Jesus, wtf happened in Britain?

I mean, I know budget cut and meme shit but this borderline actively self sabotage

[frozen jewel]

austerity for the past decade, lol

[junior trench]

decade?

[desert agate]

the 70 year pain train never ends

[shy grail]

Never ending austerity, oof, can Britain like ever repay its debt fr

[grave ravine]

Not that the FREDAs are in any way comparable to a Burke

Really the Burke's ought to be in the large destroyer category, while LCS should probably move down to missile corvette

[cinder escarp]

The postwar RN is basically "the budget went down" every year from '46 on

[grave ravine]

Also putting the Dokdos and Hyugas on the same tier as QE is hilarious, especially since the Dokdos are just straight up LHDs, well deck and all

[sleek agate]

Graf zeppelin in construction

[manic latch]

Graf Zeppelin target practice by Soviet FAB-1000 bomb

[drifting delta]

So from what I understand the biiiig drydock in Taranto was for manteinance, because you don't necessarily need a yard to be as big as the ship you want to build, since you can add parts like bow and stern after she is launched.

But once you build said ship, then you need a drydock capable of accomodating it for manteinance.

I am assuming it was like a preemptive move.

In case stuff started excalating. Which it never did.

[subtle prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTQ3ud-CN7w

[eternal veldt]

@desert agate you asked me about Texas' antifouling the other day - got the answer. It's not the authentic colour. The foundation says its better to find paint that is better than historical authenticity - Not like anyone's going to see it anyway.

[desert agate]

i swear i asked that like 2 months ago lmao

but thank you appreciate the answer

[remote monolith]

time displaced Discord message

[subtle prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73jl-P66whM

[chilly osprey]

Yes, it was for maintenance.

If you aren't able to drydock a ship after completing it, you're going to run into big trouble. Now, granted, there are drydocks in Italy that still could have taken something 45,000 tons, but as it was at the time there were only three drydocks that could take large fast battleships like the Littorio-class (one at Genoa, one at Taranto, one at Venice), so the RM was very cognizant of the need for new large drydocks.

[chilly osprey]

Same thing that happened everywhere else

The Cold War ended

The only way you kept your yards going at the same rate for submarine production was either lots of export orders (ex, Germany), or you kept building at the same pace (Japan).

The British downsized a lot and that is reflected in their submarine industry.

And that's not even unique to them

The Americans fucked themselves when it came to their submarine building

There was a point in the 1990s when they just stopped building new SSNs

And then in the 2000s in order to keep two yards alive where sharing orders of sone submarine per year between two yards

It destroyed the supply chains upstream of the shipyards that actually built the submarines.

And is why it's been such a an arduous task to get back on track to 2 SSNs a year or more

And ofc once they got close to that point COVID hit and set them back 3-4 years.

[visual rover]

De Zeven Provinciën class Air-Defence and Command Frigates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Zeven_Provinciën-class_frigate

[ivory ridge]

yeah

[ivory ridge]

it's pretty dumb to have conventional carriers and heli carriers on the same line

but yeah the destroyer category is the dumbest probably

I know the japanese dont have specific classification for them but the second line destroyers they have are closer to frigates than destroyers

they are built for ASW afterall

idk why the mogamis are the only ones being called frigates internationally

[visual rover]

IJN Mogami and JS Mogami (FFM-1)

The Mogami class Frigates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mogami-class_frigate

[ivory ridge]

plus the first few mogamis dont even have VLS for now

[unkempt sedge]

https://youtu.be/cTQ3ud-CN7w?si=OPNuH214KDK8uaPK

[visual rover]

4 Ships in class of the De Zeven Provinciën class ADCF-Frigates. They has VLS ready

[subtle prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tBC7UxaBao

[visual rover]

https://youtu.be/C-xbChvLwyU?si=4WSP47PIJzyzeueC

[subtle prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1QxIdlz_Ss

[drifting delta]

Yes, exactly. Paradoxically the thing to keep in mind was not much building the ship itself as much as it was performing repairs and manteinance.

The drydock part you mention is very interesting. I understand that having multiple large drydocks over the penisula as to have one as close as possible to a battleship all the time was a great advantage rather than a single one.

Unfortunately besides the main shipyards and harbors I know basically nothing about Italian drydocks and their sizes, there is close to no info online.

[heady sail]

Yeah, consider that the littorio were already pretty oversized for most on the Italian naval infrastructure.

For a 45000 ton ship it would have been even worse.

[naive rampart]

USS Cabot, the last of the Independence-class, c. 1995, waiting on a bid to preserve her as a museum ship that never came

[drifting delta]

A recurring problem in many navies. It's no wonder so many navies tried to keep sizes as low as possible. To the cost of the ship you also have to add the cost of infrastructure upgrades, not to mention building an entirely new, larger design from scratch.

Like, if your name is not United States Navy then it's gonna be problematic at the very least.

I heard somewhere that had germany miracolously completed the H class, they would have been faced with the same problem, but I have zero sources to prove that.

[heady sail]

Yeah, exactly. Mostly didn't want ship bigger than 40000 tons

[heady sail]

Even the USA would have had problems in the late thirties. For example I heard that to build what is Kearsarge, the Soviets would have had to pay for the expansion of the shipyard of Bethlehem, I think.

Kearsarge is massive tho. 70000 tons. If it was built it would be the biggest battleship ever built.

[heady sail]

Yeah, probably. The H-39 were a scaled up Bismarck, in the range of 55000 tons. Regarding the bigger H classes the late ones, like the H-43 and H-44, they could have only used the deep sea Norwegian ports. Not that they were realistic anyway.

[visual rover]

History of HNLMS Tromp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HNLMS_Tromp

[subtle prawn]

https://fxtwitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1752730836003139935

[subtle prawn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gisrZahXOXU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYwFpiRI0po

[subtle prawn]

https://fxtwitter.com/AirCrash_/status/1752621673785049444

[subtle prawn]

https://twitter.com/LockheedMartin/status/1752421424893984919
https://twitter.com/LockheedMartin/status/1752708318710338034

Lockheed Martin (@LockheedMartin) on X

The reigning Coolest Thing Made in South Carolina now has another statewide honor: its own day. Cheers to 50 years of the F-16 and Happy F-16 Fighting Falcon Day! #Falcon50

Twitter · Jan 30, 2024, 8:00 PM

Lockheed Martin (@LockheedMartin) on X

Happy 50th anniversary to the F-16! 🎉

Together with @EdwardsAFB and the @usairforce, we proudly celebrated a remarkable milestone in the F-16 program – 50 years of unmatched mission superiority and operation excellence. #Viper50

Twitter · Jan 31, 2024, 3:00 PM

[visual rover]

HNLMS De Ruyter (F-804) and HNLMS Holland (P-840)

[worn ember]

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/565695515

sorry for the intrusion fellow commanders but

do any of you have some info regarding the cancelled ships for either the PLN or ROCN during and some time after the civil war

[visual rover]

History of HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HNLMS_De_Zeven_Provinciën

[strong plank]

Apparently there was a supply ship named for my college

[wintry moat]

Cool

[subtle prawn]

https://twitter.com/NASAhistory/status/1753048058693029934
https://twitter.com/airandspace/status/1753085406923354571

NASA History Office (@NASAhistory) on X

On Feb 1, 2003, at 8:59 am EST Space Shuttle Columbia broke up on reentry; killing all seven crew members of mission STS-107.

We vow to keep their memory alive and never become complacent in our commitment to safety. #NASARemembers

Twitter · Feb 1, 2024, 1:30 PM

National Air and Space Museum (@airandspace) on X

Remembering the crew of STS-107.

On this day in 2003, the seven-astronaut crew was lost when Space Shuttle Columbia broke apart during re-entry. David Brown, Rick Husband, Laurel Clark, Kalpana Chawla, Michael Anderson, William McCool, and Ilan Ramon were on board.

Twitter · Feb 1, 2024, 3:58 PM

[subtle prawn]

https://news.usni.org/2024/02/01/u-s-approves-potential-3-9b-mq-9b-uav-sale-to-india

[ivory ridge]

[autumn sorrel]

Pin L

[ivory ridge]

common pin L

[autumn sorrel]

Realistically, even if all the above happened, it only incensed American to fight harder and if Midway is still in American hand or Moresby invasion failed and Australia is still secure, USN can still send sub to raid Japan convoys.

[strong plank]

don't siege pearl, take it immediately

[ivory ridge]

truly

[wintry moat]

Lol

[runic ermine]

And people said I was being unrealistic

[glass trail]

same energy as saying the spanish could have won the spanish american war if the filipino or cuban insurgencies hadn't helped the u.s.

[manic latch]

https://tenor.com/view/staring-meme-bald-guy-staring-gif-16652283412331227052

destroy pearl harbor

US: Dies

[ivory ridge]

truly

it's like those videogame hit points

[autumn sorrel]

I blame War on the Sea for this

“Just get close to bombard enemy airfield and port to lvl 1, easy bro”

[remote monolith]

Ok what manga is this

[maiden citrus]

teitoku-no-ketsudan-midway

[shrewd pecan]

Never clicks just how giant the Su-27 family is

[shy grail]

No wonder I’ve never heard of it’s a doujin lmao

[manic latch]

Ye

[unkempt sedge]

Su-27 my beloved!😍 People tend to forget how big Flankers actually are.

Size compared to F-15C. It's slightly larger.

[autumn sorrel]

Imagine, SU-27 but with American engine and Israel electronics

[unkempt sedge]

You are halfway there with the Su-30MKI (Israeli Electronics). Except no American engines.

Besides the AL-31 and 41 are very good engines anyway. Nothing I can really complain about with them.

[runic ermine]

What in the kancolle bs is this?

[autumn sorrel]

I am not done yet, with AIM-120

[fierce sparrow]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRbvA8qolG0

[unkempt sedge]

Well, India has 3 missiles that it can put on the MKI.

1. MICA
2. R-77
   3 Astra MK.1

[grave ravine]

I mean I wouldn't say they are very good, they are decent enough but lag in power density and fuel economy compared to some newer western engines

[unkempt sedge]

Maybe in some ways, but that is VERY debatable though.

AL-41F1S in Su-35S specs are pretty similar in output compared to F110-GE-129 in F-15EX.

Problem is many people nitpick jet engine performance anyway (fanboyism). I tend to be more lenient on such things. AL-41 is FAR from the worst engine out there.

Case in point is the nitpick arguement that Alison V1710 in the P-38 would have been better with Merlin engines (then again I am more knowledgeable in piston engines than jets).

[ivory ridge]

Italian Hitfact 2 120mm turret on turkish Tulpar chassis

[runic ermine]

Dope