mendicant legs not dropping

[high blaze]

tbf i've had similar odd luck
I got the helmet, chest, and Purity before I got 1 sabatons fragment

[broken grove]

The drop rate is allegedly even so it's most likely bugged

[tardy rain]

lol 15 times with a 1.5% chance and you think its bugged?

if it was say 5-10% yeah sure but not 1.5%

[broken grove]

Zero leg fragment with 25% drop chance across 15 kills has a 1.5% chance of occuring

It would be the equivalent of flipping 6 coins and all come up heads

[polar acorn]

Curious.... you play gacha games before?

[high blaze]

gonna throw it in again
1 sabatons fragment and otherwise I refarmed the whole set lmfao

[broken grove]

i just got my first leg fragment after killing king 20 times so i expect to have to kill the king 40 to 60 times to complete the legs. assuming drop rates should be even, this is a bug as the predictable EV is way below 25%.

it is possible to do a p-test to calculate the likelihood of a bug but im not going to do that, i am just assuming it is bugged.

I can tell you right now the probability of missing the legs after 20 kills is 0.3%

[mint crane]

oh boy i hope you never play runescape if you think drop rates will occur on-rate

[broken grove]

someone slept through statistics class

[mint crane]

statistics and reality are two different things

[broken grove]

actually no theyre not, we use statistics in bridge engineering to estimate safe load capacity

[mint crane]

this is entirely possible. if it happens you dont assuume the coins are rigged

[broken grove]

every road youve ever driven has gone through a p-test

bug confirmed

have a nice day

[mint crane]

whats the drop rate on the legs

[broken grove]

assumedly its 25%

[mint crane]

assumedly

[broken grove]

either it isnt 25% or its a bug

if this is the intended drop rate then thats just horrible design

5%

okay DE

smarten up a bit

nobody wants to kill this boss 60 times on a 3 hour cooldown for a cosmetic

[lilac tulip]

Where are you getting this drop rate info? 15 times is really not much lol, it definitely took me more than that to even get a single chest piece from him.

While I can agree that the low drop-rates on top of the large drop pool and 3hr cooldown feels not great, the armor is also one of the if not the best in game currently so not really a "cosmetic".

[glossy raven]

not just cosmetic, it's one of the better armor sets in total defense points - particularly the sabatons. RNG can be painful... I farmed Malrog dozens of times waiting for a 3rd Dewelion fragment to drop

[novel copper]

it took me 2 full armor sets to get a single purity frag lol, its just luck

[patent widget]

This is a blatant abuse of statistics, and why statistical analysis isnt allowed in courts. There are thousands of people playing the game daily, the chance of any one of them having this occur is VERY high. Even with just 1k players doing this task, the chance at least one of them will go through 20 kills without getting the drop, using your numbers even though they aren't the actual drop rate, is 95% lol.

[novel copper]

voidrig part farm when theres 8 of em and u need 2 of a specific one go brrrrrrr

[broken grove]

i agree simply calculating the probability isnt reliable thats why i had AI also do the p-test so i also know that i was 2.8 standard deviations away from average which is crazy high

[novel copper]

cant remmeber if it was actually 8

[broken grove]

the chances of the drop rate not being even is 99.5% or higher

[patent widget]

You are bound to find something that far away from average talking about random chance when you have as large of a sample size as this game has

[broken grove]

lol quite the opposite most people should be average

im not going to debate well established statistical practices

maybe open a text book

[patent widget]

Yes bro most people are going to be around average but when you have a LARGE SAMPLE SIZE, the chance of outliers to appear is larger

[broken grove]

🤦‍♀️

[patent widget]

A sample size of 10 is less likely to have an outlier than a sample size of 500 bro

[broken grove]

the chances are the same proportionally

[patent widget]

But you are not proportional, you are one person, regardless of what the total playercount is

Thats why im saying you are abusing statistics

[broken grove]

okay im done trying to explain to you high school level math

[novel copper]

bro, I had your same issue but instead of legs it was with purity

are the drop rates rigged for every player on a specific item then?

[patent widget]

Dawg you pulled out google gemini to find a p-value for a SUPER simple statistical analysis just to see if YOU were an outlier, then extrapolated ONE outlier to say the whole system is bugged 🥀

That is like MEGA abusive

You used a sample size of ONE For a population of THOUSANDS big dog

[novel copper]

id say to chill out but yeah I cant think of another way to explain it

[swift berry]

I've been farming this dude and legs are the only thing I've been able to craft. Still have yet to see a Purity drop, for what its worth 😄

[broken grove]

Actually the sample size is 20 kills lol

Imagine thinking the same size is one

🤦‍♀️

[patent widget]

The sample size wasn’t 20, what you modeled using the AI was the likelihood a player would reach 20 kills without the drop, not the spread of the 20 kills itself.

Have you even taken any upper level courses, man? Like, have you ever actually applied the concepts you’ve learned in highschool math?

[broken grove]

Yes I have a math degree and I'm a professional data analyst. The assumed "spread" is the normal distribution. Ppl here talking like they never took a single math class.

New rule: instead of running your mouth, post your fragment drop spread, let's try to find someone who matches the normal distribution

I didn't realize this community was so full of airheads gat dam

I will no longer be responding to people who don't understand the fundamental mathematics, please don't waste my time reading your asinine comments

[patent widget]

Holy cornball

[broken grove]

post your spread or honestly stfu

everyone complaing about muh sample size should just post your drop spread rather than being a b-tch about it

[mystic ice]

i don't think its that deep you're just wrong bro

[mystic ice]

ive killed the king 0 times and got zero leg fragments which is normal distribution. the drop table is clearly working.

[mystic ice]

that is my spread

[broken grove]

then ur an idiot wasting everyones time being here

[mystic ice]

thats what everyone's thinking about your post right now

[broken grove]

most people have horribly sub par education

[mystic ice]

bummer. that doesn't address the issue of the drops working perfectly fine though. statistically speaking 0 drops out of 0 kills has a 100% chance of happening, and it happened, so it must mean the drop system is functioning perfectly

[broken grove]

troll

blocked

[patent widget]

LOL

[mystic ice]

[patent widget]

[plush lava]

Well, my spread is as follows over 18 kills
legs - 10
chest - 5
hat - 1
sword - 2

This puts my own drop rate at roughly 55% for the sabetons, if we combine our spreads we see 11 drops in 38 runs, or roughly 28.94%. This sample is still too small to draw any reasonable conclusions, but we can see that the drop rate lines up more with what you stated the chance is (25%)

[broken grove]

The glitch appears to be account specific. A lot of people report that one particular drop is impossible to get.

If you combine both our spreads yes it's even but each individual account seems to be wildly unlucky

[mystic ice]

ive still got the best possible drop rate for my amount of rolls

[broken grove]

One possible explanation is that the rng is bugged using the username in the number generation

[mystic ice]

could it be possible you were simply unlucky?

[mint crane]

could we get mods in here this is ridiculous

[patent widget]

Oh my goddd you could not have said a better line

[broken grove]

yeah this thread has become incredibly toxic with people basically just saying "nuh uh" and not contributing anything

its like theyre personally offended that a DE game might have a glitch

the company known for their glitchy games

their games are so glitchy i see the exact same glitches in soulframe and duviri

[pastel matrix]

Incredible reach --- RNG is RNG and the more item a boss has the less chance of seeing a specific one --- if one person has seen it recently then its likely you are just incredibly unlucky --- and over thousands of trials its pretty likely some folks can go 20-30+ kill swithout seeing a specific thing they are after

[mint crane]

No, we need a mod here because

1. You are not submitting a reall bug report. You are submitting a complaint
2. You are failing to back up your bug claim with misinformation and LLM bias
3. You are insulting people for trying to explain to you how this isn't a bug

[patent widget]

No I'm starting to find this hilarious please dont call a mod yet

On my knees

[mint crane]

its utterly unhelpful

[broken grove]

alright yall are too stupid for me

im just going to delete this

[patent widget]

[pastel matrix]

As someone who works in statistics everyday you are interpreting probability and the results of your chatGPT conversation wrong --- while it is unlikely is absolutely still possible especially over hundreds of trials. If you take 100 people and they all ran the boss 20 times, a handful of people would absolutely have the same result of you, that no legs dropped.

The fact that plenty of people have reported seeing the drop means its incredibly unlucky RNG for you.

But you have a good day.

[broken grove]

post your spread

show me one person within 1 standard deviation

ill wait

if what youre saying is true most ppl here are within 1 standard deviation

im just asking for one example lol

Mr. "i work with statistics every day"

[patent widget]

I killed him 3 times after the update and got one leggings drop, i got most of the armor pieces at around the same time

Thats within your standard deviation

happy now?

[rancid trail]

Not sure what my drop spread since Purity got added is, but it has seemed mostly even. I've got 36 leg, 33 chest and 36 helm fragments in my inventory.

[novel copper]

says the one complaining that the drop rates are apparently rigged for 1 specific person lol

[novel copper]

I killed the boss over 20 times and didnt get a single purity frag until yesterday yet I have 2.8 armor sets

yet the issue with parts seems to be legs? weird since I had 8 of em

not saying purity is bugged just saying how they seem to ignore when anyone else has problems with any other piece because this has been said before lol

[pastel matrix]

I got 5 purity fragments in the first 6 kills after the patch dropped shrug thats how RNG works

[novel copper]

exactly

[pastel matrix]

OP is just in denial

[plush lava]

I didn't mean to inflame anything by posting my numbers, I was just trying to show that probability is just that, the chance that something probably happens. By combining our spreads (which I posted as requested) you can see that across a larger sample size the numbers begin to normalise to the expected result. Even our sample size of 38 is not enough to draw any reasonable conclusions, we would need several thousand data points to even begin to see something approaching the average chance.

Lets take just your drop rate, the odds you stated of getting your result was 1.5%, if this game has 1000 players then youd expect 10 people to have the same result, you were one of the 10. Sometimes its just like that. 1.5% is still a chance of something occurring, and is a group you have found yourself in.

You also seem to be taking it that each previous attempt has an impact on the next, when this is not the case. Not getting a result in the first attempt does not increase the likelyhood of seeing it in the next. This is the kind of thinking behind the gambler's fallacy.

[pastel matrix]

Exactly, OP is extrapolating the wrong thing about probability. People are bound to get every potential result even if its only a 2% chance result, they were just the unlucky one this time.

[pastel matrix]

I'll try one more time since you claim you are a math person, to help you understand why a P-test saying something in highly unlikely does not confirm a bug. If you flip a coin a sufficient number of times you can find strings of getting X number of Heads (or tails) in a row where X can be any arbitrarily long string. You want to find 20 heads in a row? Flip a coin a million times its fairly likely to happen once in that million tosses...for sufficient number of trials you can find multiple of X strings of heads in a row. That doesn't change the fact that it should be HIGHLY unlikely to get 20 heads in a row, it is still possible... and DOES happen.

The same is true for any trial, you yourself finally got a pair. Now consider the fact that there are multiple thousands of players killing the mendicant king every 3 hours daily, There are tens of thousands of mendicant king kills across all players playing. By now its fairly guaranteed that there has been at least one person who hasn't seen a particular drop in 20 kills, in this case you.

You certainly can't use that fact that its unlikely to prove that a bug exists, thats a gross misunderstanding of statistics.

[mint crane]

There's also just like, the fact you have to account for every other drop and every other drop source that operate on the same drop system, ie, other bosses. Not just you, but other players can also get very lucky with drops, becomign themselves an outlier, and 'balancing' out the randomness

There's someone out there who got 2 purity frags in a row on their first 2 kills
there's also someone out there who can see 50 kills and not see a drop

The ONLY way this can truly be a bug is if multiple people are reporting on it. THEN it warrants an investigation

I see this kind of complaint in runescape ALL the time. "The wiki says its a 1/200 drop and I've killed it 500 times and haven't seen the drop, it MUST be bugged" no you're just super unlucky and I bet you got really lucky on another drop somewhere else in the game

[plush lava]

I'm not sure why people seem to think drop rates are deterministic, I don't think thats ever been the case