#rates for dupes are higher than new characters

1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

burnt vapor
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Another person has also mentioned something similar. I think the source of their issue partially stems from this "feature". #1384922473786769561 message

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Anyone reacting with the clown face care to explain their perspective?

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I would love to refute your argument

north swallow
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you can't refute the argument, you are making an assumption since nor you or anyone else have a way to validate if the % in the game is what it says it is

silent pendant
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if you think a sample size of 1 proves your point you are a clown, no discussion needed

north swallow
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so you can see it in two different ways:

  • they do in fact make dupes more likely for whatever reason (it does not benefit them nor the players and it is a crime to do false advertisiment)

  • they do not make dupes more likely and that is how % works in real life

burnt vapor
astral shard
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If you pulled 14 characters on average you should end up with 10.8 different ones.

You got 11.

Even if the sample size of 1 argument had any ground to have, you got slightly luckier than average.

crisp agate
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you get how that sounds right?

burnt vapor
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i havent seen a case like that at all lmao

astral shard
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You can try to read this for a relevant probabilistic quirk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

The odds of getting dupes are a lot higher than people think, because the pull of units is so small

In probability theory, the birthday problem asks for the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, at least two will share the same birthday. The birthday paradox is the counterintuitive fact that only 23 people are needed for that probability to exceed 50%.
The birthday paradox is a veridical paradox: it seems wrong at first glanc...

astral shard
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if you pulled 14 characters total, the number of different ones is expected to be 25*(1-(24/25)^14) = 10.8

You literally got an average result

burnt vapor
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yeah no worries, im just saying i got 3 dupes on the same character

astral shard
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yeah, it's random how it will go, some will get 3 of one, some will get p2 on three different ones, some will get 2 + 2

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some will get 4 dupes instead of three

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on average it's around 11

burnt vapor
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ive gotten 4 dupes

astral shard
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on average it's 4.2

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so you are slightly luckier

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than most people

burnt vapor
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also the odds aren't exactly equal across the board so the math isn't exact

astral shard
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as I've said, it's counteintuitive to the point where people who got lucky feel like they got unlucky, because we misassess the chance

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true, lds have slightly higher chance to be pulled which makes (assuming fair gacha) the odds of pulling dupes slightly higher

burnt vapor
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fair enough, i forgot about the birthday problem.

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i saw someone in chat say the last 3 ssrs they pulled was freya

north swallow
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I don't have kloss if that makes you give up on the conspiracy theory

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and I have pretty much every other ssr

astral shard
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I think I have p2 kloss

urban canopy
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Only L/D I'm missing is SSania and it's pain

north swallow
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I am missing Mio and a few random SSR's that I don't care about, only one that matters is Kloss

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hopefully it won't take too long for them to release a red or blue similar unit 🥲

urban canopy
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I have P4 Doki though yaaay

burnt vapor
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i think there should be a better way to get the characters you want

idle inlet
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i get 8 copies in a row of lingluo!! 1 in the ssr ticket!

north swallow
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I feel that the problem is that very few characters can do specific content

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like 2/3 of SSR's are maybe only useful on PvP once we can afford the luxury of building multiple characters

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not having Kloss really hurts

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there are other 3-4 units that feel the same way

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I feel so bad for those who picked tiamat in the selector

burnt vapor
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but feel free to show proof

weak pagoda
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So far every char I pulled except Massiah and Dokidoki who were the last ones and I got lucky there geting em close. Vur so far every char I got was 2 or 3x

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I got Lily x2

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I got other lighr one forgot name x2

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So it is a bit weird that out of all this other chars, i pull 9 dif ssr

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And 7 have 1 or 2 const

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And 2 are LD

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What is the ods of same LD going 2x

weak pagoda
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I picked Tsukiyo on selector

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As Kloss i got 2x

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Then day after i get tsuki

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🤣

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Thats why I was so so happy past 2 days, cos I got new chars and not juat any new chars 🤣

idle inlet
burnt vapor
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god damn

stark mist
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Also 3 tiamats in a row

devout radish
quiet musk
crisp agate
devout radish
regal lichen
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you deleted the OP so i can't clown it so im just gonna clown the first comment i can find