Make a chance of AA missiles missing a missile\bomb

[atomic shoal]

Writing this because in real life we can see that AA doesn't have a 100% chance to shoot down their targets depending on their speed and RCS. In game however I never saw a stratolance or any other AA system miss ANY projectile it targets, it's stupid and very unlikely even in the near future setting of the game because radars are still radars, and missiles are still missiles and they will never have a 100% chance of intercepting their target. So I'm suggesting to add an chance for AA to miss their target depending on their speed and RCS

[atomic shoal]

I wanna post some videos of missiles missing their targets irl but I don't know if videos of such kind are allowed on the server. Lol

[waxen stirrup]

This is 2077 and there's no problem with interception calculations will be it can miss. But i sure they can not miss because some of them not get good maintenance and they can just work bas or not work, oooor they could be just too old to successfully start and lead target

[atomic shoal]

well, I don't know about that, as from what we see in the game missiles can still be easily jammed and can miss high speed targets when they're maneuvering, but strangely a ram-45 or a stratolance never misses something like a piledriver which goes like mach 4. which is just strange

[hazy kindle]

Because Mach 4 really isn’t terribly fast, a scimitar can reach over Mach 5 at high altitude.
Also ballistic missiles are even easier to intercept because they are coming directly at you. Of course you aren’t going to hit it while it’s passing overhead, the angular velocity is so high you won’t be able to get the missile to travel horizontally fast enough.
When you are being shot at the angular velocity of the ballistic missile is close to zero, which puts the intercept point far into the sky instead of moving into the ground.

[neon oar]

Well the thing is higher the target missiles speed is relative to the intercepting missile the less margun for error there is. And error can quickly build up between sensor data on target, intercept calculations, variations in speed/trajectory, sensor data/location velocity data of interceptor missile, Data transfer lag, control inputs for the interceptor, the precision you can squeeze out of missile mounted sensor (all missiles in game use a seeker head on the missile for final guidance, even SARHs) etc.. Missile interception has traditionally been an extemely difficult thing to do has historically underperformed do how massively complex it is.

[atomic shoal]

Well, I agree that in the year present in the game ballistic missiles are probably not as big of a problem as they are in real life (Ukraine struggles to shoot down missiles of the Iskander-M complex) but still there must bit at least a 10% chanse of a missile missing it

[timber fulcrum]

Kinda feel like this in practice would just be frustrating, to me this makes sense for something like a Piledriver, but nothing else really

[atomic shoal]

I'm not talking about about a high chance of it happening, 35%-10% depending on the missile used and the target

[timber fulcrum]

Yeah that’s gonna be really annoying for anything but a Piledriver dude 😭

[karmic adder]

wdym, you say this like people are often intercepting things other than piledrivers

[candid token]

bdf enjoyer writes the most skill issue topic ive ever seen

[karmic adder]

tbf ive seen worse,

[timber fulcrum]

Tuskoes, nukes, ASHMs

[karmic adder]

fair but i still dont see that particularly often, its mostly the AA AI,

[indigo plaza]

this will just make unneeded rng
there is already some people that complain about stratonuking and such, imagine if AA missile will have a chance to miss at bomb that just falling down in straight lane and R9 missile will just miss

not to mention that AA is kinda in poor state right now, its more often not such a problem in overcoming or destroying, so this change will just nerf all missile based AA's

[tender narwhal]

This community will be the death of this game.

[toxic wolf]

glory to pala

[neon oar]

Ya but it would allow them to be majorly buffed without becoming unkillable, as right now alot of the weird unrealistic tactics are cause planes are massively better at penetrating AD

[candid token]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1395134873575887070/1408461954661748917/ezgif-1136957103df63.gif

[lavish herald]

you never played a pvp match don't you

and you're angry that an AI team that literally gave ALL initiative to you and just waits for you to kill it dares not die later than 0.1 nanosec

[lavish herald]

They are allowed as long as they don't contain people's bodies flying around in them

[sage knoll]

SARHs already can miss you in the game, but it is based on physics, not on rng

[neon oar]

Ya bit planes are little easier to cause to fall out of the sky then it is to stop munitions from slamming into their target, even munitions with their guidance/flight systems inoperable might continue on to smash into the target depending on when those systems are compromised. Munitions should be better at reaching the target, and planes worse.

[lament basalt]

this is simply not how AA works 🥀

[timber fulcrum]

Every missile can miss any target just by physics (launch angle, altitude difference, etc) idk if that’s what you mean though

[sage knoll]

?
I mean that there is already a chance to miss a target and it is more reasonable than what was suggested.

[sage knoll]

I agree that planes should be worse at reaching their targets, effectiveness of low alt or high alt stealth makes game very easy and meta focused

[atomic shoal]

A TOR-M2 system intercepts 1 of 3 of GBU-62 bombs, it missed the other two. Now we have a very similar system to TOR in game, the boltstrike, which can easily with a 100% chance intercept a bomb which is even smaller than gbu-62. PAB-80lr, which is just completely unrealistic. Not to mention there was 2 of TORs and 1 BUK-M3. 3 systems. And only one of them intercepted a ONE bomb. Of course I'm not talking about such small chance of intercepting in game, but 10%-30% will be just enough to make it more realistic when in the same time not making it too annoying to be added

[candid token]

дрон в режиме круиз-контроля 🗣️ 🗣️ 🗣️

[atomic shoal]

оооо да, дрончеке🔥🔥🔥🗣️🗣️🗣️

[indigo plaza]

10-30% quite huge of a chance to miss a target that is goings straight at something
and here realism < fun
that nerf is not needed at all, because boltstrikes and others AA can be dealt with pretty easily, if you have problems with R SAM's just jam them

[quaint kestrel]

i mean isnt this just a chance buff RSAMs to be not so laughably pathetic against planes while retaining their effectiveness against munitions

[karmic adder]

yeah plus you don’t have to do a 10-30% chance, even 5/10 would be fine imo

[indigo plaza]

I dont see it as such
like, what the point in nerfing RSAM, so you will be able to buff it back again
its better to just make them viable other way or finally give them datalink, with will increase their effectivness drastically

[quaint kestrel]

......because right now RSAM is only decent against munitions and god horrible against planes

[tender narwhal]

Just make them competent, easy

[quaint kestrel]

which happens to invalidate basically any munition thats capable of being shot down until the air defense is down, like what happens with real life missile systems if they have a 100% PK chance

[indigo plaza]

Sooo
what the point in making them horrible at munitions ?
they "decent" only because munitions cant dodge and notch, imagine if RSAMS wont be able to hit that targets too

[tender narwhal]

What do you mean?

[quaint kestrel]

by buffing the capabilities of the RSAM itself you compensate for the soft nerf that is kill chance

[indigo plaza]

If ground ai will be able to fire on targets that are not in their range, but soon will be, that already will buff their effectiveness quite well

[quaint kestrel]

that makes them even worse what?

ever heard of kinematic evasion/wild weaseling

[indigo plaza]

thats not gonna work
noone loves gambling, imagine if you had 500kt nuke, but it had 10-30 chance of not going off

And that buff wont make them worse, they will be able to pressure players from further away from blindly flying into their "work" range

[tender narwhal]

I am just saying that throwing RNG into a fairly nice and consistent system would be god awful

[quaint kestrel]

you could also make it not RNG?

[indigo plaza]

players effectivly will have longer time reaching them, in that time other planes, either players or AI will have more reaction time as well as ground AI

[tender narwhal]

A "roll the dice and have it fail 10% of the time" is pretty RNG.

[quaint kestrel]

do you have to nerf the stratolance more so than it already is ong, its hot garbage at intercepting anything that isnt stratobombing

[indigo plaza]

and how so I wonder ?

[quaint kestrel]

background noise, target evasion, fusing sensitivity, quality of track provided

[indigo plaza]

hey, im not the one who is suggesting rng based stat of not hitting their target just because its "realistic"

[quaint kestrel]

if it 70% chance of kill then extend Ammo + firerate by 1.3x to compensate idk

[indigo plaza]

and why would you want to nerf it by background noises when its not firing that low at longer distance ?
target evasion is already not that hard against R9
Idk what fuse sensivity will even change for it
and quality of track will just nerf it in all aspects

[quaint kestrel]

you could idk, not have a shit track, target evasion as in the bandit itself is evading against R9 like the AGM 68 terminal manuevers
fuse sensitivity+track quality+degradation by background noise means if the fuse dosent extend to a large enough area then a sufficiently inaccurate trak will cause the fuse not to detonate

[indigo plaza]

But still, I dont get the whole point of nerfing R9, so you can buff it afterwards
isnt that just, silly to do ?
instead of actually thinking of how to make it better and not make it worse so you can make it better later

[tender narwhal]

I honestly lost track of who wants to nerf and who wants what

[quaint kestrel]

i mean its arguably a buff, having missiles fire beyond NEZ would be utterly pointless (R9 takes like half a minute from launch to hit in max range)
its too slow, its not surprising anybody, its a mild annoyance because notching can be done by a toddler

[ripe condor]

yeah, i think that there should be a certain margin of error for ground based AA

[karmic adder]

not one bit of this makes sense
A. TONS of people love gambling actually thats literally a whole thing
B. the nuke analogy doesn’t make sense because it would actually be “imagine youre having a nuke dropped on your airbase and it has a 5-10% chance to get through”
C. early firing on PLAYERS and PLANES is 100% a nerf, because exactly as stated previously thats the whole idea of wild weaseling to drain munitions easily and draw fire, if it was munitions ONLY then firing early would make perfect sense as those are inbound and not going to go cold

[karmic adder]

give the R9 a scimitar engine and im not kidding

[quaint kestrel]

That's still 20s of warning

[karmic adder]

i dont disagree but thats a fundamental flaw of long range air defense, unless you wanna bring in hypersonics

[tender narwhal]

Make it guide on DL until the last 10 kilometers

[karmic adder]

also if its guided by DL that would allow for multi target engagement, further improving air defense

[indigo plaza]

A. If gambling is worth it because of risk and reward, 30% at worst case scenario of missile not hitting a target is completely crap, players on the receiving end wont want to take such risk just because its "realism"
B. you effectively saying the same thing, in both cases nuke has a chance of not detonating, but in your case its purely because of rng of defence and not because of rng of nuke itself
C. I just disagree with that, right now players freely can enter in SAM range without any problems, IF SAM's would be able to fire at targets beyond their NEZ range that would encourage players to be more cautions about their approach, + they wont be able to notch all time because they need to get closer to the AA's
You cant maneuver all the time without bleeding speed and energy, it just a battle of attrition where AA will eventually pressure you enough to get an upper hand

[tender narwhal]

I state again: Putting a 10% failure rate on anything in this game would be awful. Gambling is something people enjoy, yes, not in this game.

[quaint kestrel]

Mate you say it like Sam's would be more dangerous if they fire outside NEZ, the fact is, it's not. It dosent matter if the Sam's fired early or late, because they all end up with the same kill rate, >30%.

This entire argument can be debunked just by the fact that no one fires scythes at actual BVR ranges, because they're practically useless anywhere that's not nearly point blank

There's so many easy ways to dodge SAM the extra range is just giving them extra reaction time

[karmic adder]

also dumping missiles at an inopportune shot

but i think the issue is yall are assuming the 10-30% from OP from old data of combat, in game i would bet the chance of failure would be ~1-9%, and it would NOT be a flat rate it would be affected by variables to make them even less effected

[indigo plaza]

That improvement would be good for every AA, one way or another they will be more pressuring and threatening than right now
and its really silly that AI with S1 or S3 CAN already fire at you in such scenarios but ground AA cant, with is looking like an oversight

Some manages to use scythes at BVR and were semi-succesful, yet its quite off the topic we are having here

Thats the point there is so many easy ways to dodge SAM yet we get suggestion that now will make it easier for munitions to dodge

[karmic adder]

if the early warning of missiles was removed id agree with you, but with the current ample heads up? firing early is just wasting missiles ESPECIALLY if the target is players, as said previously i like the early engagement idea for MUNITIONS though

[indigo plaza]

Problem here is not that chances are high (altho they are), main issue is that there is a random possibility of missile to just miss
Its a bad way to balance certain units/game mechanics by making them rng based as Crate previously said

[karmic adder]

we already have that though, literally every time you fire a missile at another vehicle it might miss for many many reasons, im not advocating for a random probability, im asking for induced probability

[indigo plaza]

by that logic firing early for every missile is a waste, its not necessary needed for you to launch 1 missile to get 1 frag
if you are firing IR missile at someone who is in reach, you are basically give your enemy 2 options

Waste flares on incoming missile
Evade using terrain
For example if the enemy is chose to evade by terrain, but didnt manages or missile is to close he will lose some of his flare to evade that missile
You are basically playing game of attrition in that scenario, with is having huge impact on enemy if he is half way where he needed to be but lost already half of his flares, you are kinda guarantee that soon he wont be able to dodge IR missiles

[indigo plaza]

AGM-48 can only miss if you shot it poorly, with is issue primary on your side and not on the missile
or if you lost visual on the target, with is not random at all

[karmic adder]

ive seen a tusko miss a carrier by ~10m when fired within ideal conditions, 12 miles at a dive from ~35k feet

[karmic adder]

but yes im well aware we dont need one missile one frag, im well aware of the core of air combat believe me, however for air defense who are constantly ganged up on by players their attrition matters significantly more as they require an external resupply, where as a player can either respawn a new plane or go back to their runway (yes this uses another unit but i mean external as in tarantula delivered)

[indigo plaza]

thats quite closeby
they probably didnt had much time to maneuver

either way, noone can gurantee that there wont be some desync or bugs
that is not however mean that it was done on purpose, its random that was unintentonal rather than intentional and will be fixed

[karmic adder]

see but i thought it was cool that it missed, it overshot its evasion pattern and as such went in the drink, thats far from a complaint i love seeing depth in my systems

[indigo plaza]

Datalink or ability to track players before they enter NEZ will improve their performance
dunno with is better to be included, time will tell
but either way should be good as improvement

[karmic adder]

ability to track should 100% be added, i only disagree on the firing outside of effective range. but they should absolutely be aware and planning before hand

[indigo plaza]

I just hope when something like that would be added, they still will be able to prioritize targets and not just watching for chicane that is out of reach when there is ifrit nearby already engaging them

[karmic adder]

100% seconded, there needs some pretty decent overhauls imo to the AA

[neon oar]

Ok the thing with making AD not garunteed to intercept munitions is everything else about them can be buffed, like no radar floor for SARHs, quicker fire rate or the ability to fire one multiple targets at once, quicker re-engagement after a failed intercept/missile defeat, better kinematics for the missile, changing how reaction time works... etc. Right the thing everyone complains now is cropduster sneaking up to visual range to ships and killing them with ATGMs, or fighters sea skimming and smacking defended carriers with bombs in an unrealistic fashion, if this core part of the equation is changed it's either AD and ships are unkillable or their cheesable.

That and just cause a AD failed an intercept doesn't mean they can't refire on the target. This would make the kinematics of missiles more then just how spammable they are

[atomic shoal]

I did NOT think that this will get this much attention tbh😭😭😭

[faint citrus]

Yeah i can't read it all too

[atomic shoal]

fr, this is literally my first suggestion in the server and it already has 17 people talking about a such silly thing as a missile missing it's target in a game

[faint citrus]

Yeah there is no point in talking because mitch can't read it all :D

[atomic shoal]

I honestly lost track of who agrees with it and who doesn't

[faint citrus]

Yeah that’s how the internet works

[atomic shoal]

although it seems like most of the people disagree. Honestly that's fine, everyone has different opinios:)

[glossy estuary]

It’s mostly two people with strong opinions arguing, I think. FWIW, I think it’s a good idea. Munition defense could do with being a bit less absolute- multiple air defense types are usually paired together because a single AA system by itself is really quite vulnerable. They’re supposed to cover each other’s weaknesses. Currently AA systems, most of which aren’t designed for munition defense, have an unnatural ability to soak up munitions. Granted, I also think far too many of the game’s SHORAD systems rely on the Stinger-equivalent S1 when they should really be using S2s at least. I like what somebody said above, AA should have its munition defense competency nerfed, in exchange for its anti-aircraft competency being buffed, because they should be focused on preventing munitions from being launched in the first place.

[quaint kestrel]

We have that guess what it's called

[velvet kiln]

not how it works. Just like why STOVL will always be better than true VTOL in warplanes no matter tech level, there will always be a chance of failure in missiles.