#Probability error

1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

floral pond
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I dont know the real chances of pods and meggs but im 100% sure that the chance for a binder is not 1/1d. Its more like 1/12d. A megg should be around 1/2d. How did you get these appearing chances? Did you calculate them?

vernal flicker
floral pond
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And 2 pods in 30 days ist not a guaranteed pod every 24h. Its luck bases so it can be 2 pods back to back or 2 pods 20 days apart. There is a limit of i think 21 days where a pod has to spawn

vernal flicker
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21 days that's if the person is also available in those 5min notifications are not working properly in discord too but 2 pods in 21 days still good as what happened in the history of spawning

wide briar
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This is a misunderstanding of how probability works.

For example: a 1% chance of something appearing with each restock does not mean you are guaranteed to see it after 100 restocks.

In other words, this is not a bug - for suggestions of how you think the game should work instead, head to the #1392937407715868773

vernal flicker
wide briar
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I know the math and what it says, but again - this is not how odds and probability works, so this is not a bug, and you are posting in the bug forum! You should make a post in #1392937407715868773 about how you would rather it work, and your reasoning for why.