Thanks @void roost , I wasn't aware of it
#Israel - Iran - US (2026)
hollow loom
proven tulip
A very basic question, but is there any overview of the Trump administration’s strategic pathway to achieving its goals? It seems like a heavy aerial assault on military sites, but is that it? Is there a “A” then “B” then “C” playbook outlined anywhere?
knotty cedar
There is no plan.
You may have noticed that this administration has been all "break things and let others deal with the mess".
visual python
Kosovo comes to mind as the General Clark was claiming at the time they annihilated serbias ground forces only for the conflict to end and them to realize a lot of the munitions spent were on decoys
proven tulip
There is no plan.
You may have noticed that this administration has been all "br...
I mean, I agree that it's a laughable question, but SOMEONE in the administration has a theory, and the military itself has objectives that it's sending down the chain of command, but I'm struggling to put the pieces together. I know I know but let's pretend there's a plan . . . what is it?
prime torrent
I mean, I agree that it's a laughable question, but SOMEONE in the administratio...
If someone has a cohesive, serious plan, it hasn't been communicated publicly AFAIK
fossil summit
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/iran-strikes-us-israeli-targets-gulf-larijani-death.html
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly said Wednesday that its missiles have hit more than 100 military and security targets in the heart of Israeli territories as “revenge” for the killing of Larijani, his son and aide, citing Iranian semi-official Fars news agency.
The IRGC has launched a combined drone and missile attack in Tel Aviv and areas in central Israel. Two people were killed near Tel Aviv during an Iranian missile strike, Israeli emergency responders said early Wednesday.
undone bison
weak pike
knotty cedar
I mean, I agree that it's a laughable question, but SOMEONE in the administratio...
See ? He made a mess, got bored, and leaves it to others to fix it.
#1473081625775706295 message
night haven
https://bsky.app/profile/jakelahut.bsky.social/post/3mhdggfrphc2f
'we don't [use the Straight]'... I'd like to hear his explanation for the skyrocketing cost of fuel in the US then..
deep folio
Gas hit $4 here
void roost
Journalist Miryam Isahni provides some context on the death of Iranian leaders yesterday and what it might mean. One big point is that Ali Larijani was more pragmatic about making a deal to end the war than his likely successors.
https://www.threads.com/@maryamishani/post/DWBczfvjT3Y?
After the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei the killing of Ali Larijani is the most high profile killing of an Iranian leader (except for perhaps Qassem Soleimani in 2020). His death has implications and I try to break them down a bit here.
Video at link
sinful pagoda
Satellite imagery shows what seems to be the SAFEEN PRESTIGE smoking, suggesting it may have been struck again
https://bsky.app/profile/tankertrackers.com/post/3mhdmmcgo4s2b
near grail
https://fxtwitter.com/drpezeshkian/status/2034271068488130787
translated confirmation from Iranian president, not just Larijani, but also Ismail Khatib & Aziz Nasirzadeh:
The cowardly assassination of my dear colleagues Ismail Khatib, Ali Larijani, and Aziz Nasirzadeh, alongside some of their family members and accompanying team, has left us in deep mourning.
I extend my condolences to the great people of Iran for the martyrdom of two cabinet members, the secretary of the Shura, and the military and Basij commanders. I am certain their path will continue more steadfastly than before.
FxTwitter
fossil summit
safe osprey
I mean, I agree that it's a laughable question, but SOMEONE in the administratio...
but there is one.... https://fxbsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdlqss2ak2z
serene walrus
Content: some guys drive by shooting a basij outpost, on reddit
||https://reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1rx4mzu/driveby_shooting_on_basij_checkpoint_in_iran/||
This is new from iran. Allegedly
safe osprey
near grail
Content: some guys drive by shooting a basij outpost, on reddit
||https://reddi...
should this be content-flagged?
serene walrus
Yeah probably, i couldnt see much but yeah
woven epoch
Second known combat use,
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/2034253497311408599?s=20
X
near grail
floral dawn
https://fxtwitter.com/drpezeshkian/status/2034271068488130787
translated confirm...
Using this as an example for translating a tweet to English w/ fixupx by adding /en at the end of the url just in case some folks didn’t know about that capability.
https://fixupx.com/drpezeshkian/status/2034271068488130787/en
balmy trail
waxen rock
https://bsky.app/profile/jakelahut.bsky.social/post/3mhdggfrphc2f
he means china, i think? when he was trying and failing to recruit a coalition over the weekend, his pitch to china was to overstate how important the strait is to them
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5785986-trump-trip-china-delay-iran-war/
near grail
he means china, i think? when he was trying and failing to recruit a coalition o...
He's made explicit overtures directed towards other NATO states as their strategic positions & prices have been affected, but China would absolutely be included in countries he's trying to recruit to aid his efforts.
Not sure who Trump considers 'Allies' at this point 🙄
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0434932w44o
but I see what you mean, he may be hoping in his post that he can pin responsibility for the Strait to China, who he sees as his "Ally" in the region as they use it a lot
lots of speculating & reading a lot into deranged social media posts
waxen rock
He's made explicit overtures directed towards other NATO states as their strateg...
by my reading, "countries that use it " = china and "allies" = NATO. but who knows, we're in danger of overinterpreting the process behind his posts
midnight lance
I would also add India there
waxen rock
they certainly are a big consumer, but they weren't on trump's list of countries he recently tried to recruit. and they have no need to secure the strait anyway, as the iranians are letting them pass.
near grail
they certainly are a big consumer, but they weren't on trump's list of countries...
they're in active discussions with Iran directly, it seems like it's only at a per-ship basis at the moment rather than a blanket agreement.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg2m8zp2n3o
floral dawn
weary escarp
I would also add India there
I wouldn't be so sure about that. India has followed the principle of non-alignment for the better part of this century. India historically has been an ally of Iran, and has spent millions (if not billions) of dollars of in Iran: https://houseofsaud.com/us-strikes-chabahar-india-iran-war/
And on the other hand, the current government has been cozying up to Trump since his first term.
floral dawn
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-criticises-allies-over-rejection-hormu...
Several of the Gulf Arab states are now bracing themselves for Iran’s retaliation after Israel struck Iranian facilities in the South Pars field, the world’s largest gas field today.
Iran’s press agency linked to the IRGC has listed sites in Saudi Arabia, UAE and here in Qatar that it says Iran will soon be hitting in response to the Israeli attack early on Wednesday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?post=asset%3A33b73036-c87d-45b7-a9e8-a6ad65e4dd44#post
proven tulip
but there is one.... https://fxbsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdlqss2ak2z
RIGHT! I'm glad I asked. Now I feel better!
deep folio
we gain a lot from asking questions in an osint space
void roost
BREAKING
The Qatari government has declared the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military attaché, the security attaché, as well as all personnel working in those two offices, to be persona non grata and is expelling them from the country.
The attachés and their respective staff have 24 hours to leave Qatar.
The Qatari government says this is due to “repeated Iranian violations and the blatant aggression that has targeted the State of Qatar and infringed upon its sovereignty and security.”
timid jungle
QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks.
Extensive damage reported - no casualties.
FixupX
void roost
> QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the...
Purported imagery of the site https://www.threads.com/@zheray_kjr/post/DWCizsTEgAH?
Of note MizarVision is a Chinese company I think. Have not independently confirmed imagery FYI.
prime torrent
that looks really fake
balmy trail
Separately, Qatar’s defence ministry said that five missiles were launched at the country from Iran throughout Wednesday. Four were intercepted, while the other fell in Ras Laffan, causing the fire that has since been brought under control.
undone bison
void roost
Not even sure where to put this — dystopia news?
Interviewed the journalist who was getting death threats from polymarket gamblers to change his reporting on an Iranian missile strike. Scary stuff in here about how the intense harassment made him (for just a split second) doubt what he saw and reported. Others may not have his conviction/morals.
near grail
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?post=asset%3Af46fda05-e11b-4653-8f06-9f50381c1d25#post
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?post=asset%3A01adec06-3463-4c47-9f7b-ecd0fcb02f7e#post
Interceptions in Saudi Arabia & UAE thwarting Iranian attacks on gas facilities; similar to Qatar
serene walrus
Is this data accurate wrt strike counts?
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mhegynhz5k23
near grail
Is this data accurate wrt strike counts?
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanil...
the AndreasSteno account reposts Nick Shirley and seems like an overall 'finance bro' account; no source on that graphic or the underlying data
serene walrus
Maybe made himself but yeah the underlying data isn't clear. Is there a reliable tracker that exists?
near grail
I can find a matching graphic from ubersoy,com
https://ubersoy.com/p/why-iran-war-is-not-like-venezuela?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share
Seems to match the data point-for-point up to the 16th
serene walrus
How reliable is ubersoy, I've never heard of this outfit before
near grail
I think it's just a blogger engagement farming, far-right war content slop, but that's just my read
edited: not just a blogger, an actual Nazi
fading elm
Ubersoy is an unreliable far right figure
woven epoch
Purported imagery of the site https://www.threads.com/@zheray_kjr/post/DWCizsTEg...
That's fake. The MizarVision account on X is an impersonator, and MizarVision only has accounts on Weibo and Wechat. The X account reposts some of the official Mizarvision accounts, but they also post fakes like this. MizarVision's official accounts didnt share this, and its an AI alteration of Google Earth imagery
timid jungle
Vessel reported struck by unknown projectile 11NM east of Khawr Fakkan, UAE
Fire reported aboard, no info on casualties provided.
void roost
That's fake. The MizarVision account on X is an impersonator, and MizarVision on...
Thank you!
woeful oar
I can find a matching graphic from `ubersoy,com`
I would like to comment that ubersoy is an open Nazi who has compared Jews to bugs so.
tiny path
I would like to comment that ubersoy is an open Nazi who has compared Jews to bu...
I would ask for a source on that, but that'd just be more off topic.
woeful oar
I can corroborate this if you can give me a place to put it. Didn't want to put a bunch of links here.
void roost
tiny path
A general "has spread racist tropes" or "posts antisemitic comments" was probably all that was needed to make the point.
woeful oar
A general "has spread racist tropes" or "posts antisemitic comments" was probabl...
My apologies, that specific line is what I remember the blog for but it should be noted that they seem to be rather explicitly pro-Russia/BRICS from that weird alt-right perspective you see sometimes.
void roost
void roost
fossil summit
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026/card/rump-wants-no-more-energy-strikes-but-supported-attack-on-south-pars-JYROfxheBSzuGarvy6O1?msockid=21c662101c496b42343370ae1de86aaa
Trump Wants No More Energy Strikes, But Supported Attack On South Pars
Trump, who knew about the Israeli strike on South Pars in advance, supported it as a message to Tehran over its block of the Strait of Hormuz. The president believes Iran got the message and is now against attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, the officials said. But Trump could once again be open to targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran's future actions in the strategic waterway, the officials said.
(emphasis mine)
void roost
Reuters Nat Sec reporter
https://xcancel.com/phildstewart/status/2034416323808399440#m
eager sand
waxen rock
more on how unreliable narrator joe kent says the decision was made to go to war:
#usa-canada message
orchid bone
I came across this on Instagram. Allegedly Israel is controlling the orientation of this CCTV camera, with a drone being heard overhead. Based on the subtitles (I don't speak this language) the speculation is that the camera feed is used for target recognition, which the drone can then engage. Anyone has more info about this? I can imagine this being within the capabilities of Israeli intelligence.
Instagram
golden zodiac
The drone doing the controlling is probably nonsense. But if the camera is connected to the internet AND is in a specific area the Israelis might be actively monitoring or launching an operation in, then a team operating remotely could probably manage a takeover thats in sync with drone activity. Still a fair few moving pieces, but doable.
The first thing I’d want to look at to even start trying to prove this would be if any other cameras in at least the surrounding couple of blocks exhibited similar activity.
undone bison
orchid bone
The drone doing the controlling is probably nonsense. But if the camera is conne...
Agreed, I would imagine the chances are bigger that IP cameras are being widely hacked / accessed through backdoors, and those streams being fed into facial recognition software. I think the kill-chain (if it exists) is a bit longer then directly between the camera and the drone
serene walrus
Do we have any sense of the damage to ali al salem airbase?
timid jungle
CNN reporting an F-35 was forced to make an emergency landing.
https://fixupx.com/natashabertrand/status/2034651031146041636?
fossil summit
balmy trail
https://cnn.it/4dug09M
Did someone say decimated air defences? 🤔🤣
Also of note…
The UK has joined European allies and Japan in saying they were ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz”. In a joint statement, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan condemned Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels and oil and gas facilities in the Gulf, while expressing “deep concern” over the escalating conflict.
balmy trail
https://cnn.it/4dug09M
This was posted in a Telegram group with no caption or description and from a shady source, wondering has anyone seen any corroborating videos from reputable sources that this is the F-35 in question? Or anyone with aviation knowledge able to identify the aircraft depicted?
novel sail
Same film is all over X and bluesky For example https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhgfmsxvds2y
Same type of video has been posted before, https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVhG_e0jR5e/ Although the plane in question looks more like a MiG-29.
Instagram
woeful oar
It's hard to say and I'm far from even a warthunder tier expert but the snoot does look very long to be an f-35 and the back canards don't slope to the side, sticking up like a MiG-29.
novel sail
It's hard to say and I'm far from even a warthunder tier expert but the snoot do...
Which one are you talking aobut?
compact nest
More stills here, I'm still not convinced
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3mhgfyihx622p
woeful oar
Same film is all over X and bluesky For example https://bsky.app/profile/maks23....
This screenshot
novel sail
This screenshot
That is claimed to be an F-15 but is with 99% certainty a MiG-29 yes.
novel sail
More stills here, I'm still not convinced
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsk...
The fact that they have used the same type of video for false claims before tells a lot..
marsh torrent
More stills here, I'm still not convinced
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsk...
This one at least looks like a F-35 (unlike that other screenshot, which I agree is most likely a MiG-29). But I’m not convinced it’s real either.
drowsy tide
https://vxtwitter.com/i/status/2034666586213155234 full video with twitter link
what i find weird is the plane disappears after the hit which doesnt track with the plane returning to base
novel sail
what i find weird is the plane disappears after the hit which doesnt track with ...
It is still there, just a lot darker.
keen spear
balmy trail
That is claimed to be an F-15 but is with 99% certainty a MiG-29 yes.
Ok yeah. This was where my head was at, looks a different shape to an F-35 (at least one one the ground) and I’m less familiar with them in flight so glad to have some clarification.
deep folio
that does not resemble an f-15 at all, it only has one exhaust plume
f-15 is a twin engine plane
serene walrus
that does not resemble an f-15 at all, it only has one exhaust plume
f-15 is a t...
there's two different videos, one is an earlier thing that is alleged to be an F-15 brought up as a comparison, one is the one purporting to be the F-35 shot at
deep folio
https://vxtwitter.com/i/status/2034666586213155234 full video with twitter link
if this is the f-35 that landed, thats impressive
tiny path
As Palt points out the silhouette glow is dropped after the hit, the plane is still visible in the last frame.
novel sail
there's two different videos, one is an earlier thing that is alleged to be an F...
Correct, the claimed F-15/MiG is older.
woven epoch
if this is the f-35 that landed, thats impressive
Can't really tell from a single angle how far away the missile exploded in relation to the jet
safe osprey
For the shape only. From random post about f15 https://www.facebook.com/groups/dullmensclub/posts/1248123099177562/. With the low quality it will be hard. It is probably only temp view we see.
weak pike
It definitely appears to be an F-35A, but I agree that there are some questions regarding the video, especially when one compares it to the RSAF F-15S damaged on camera by the Houthis over Yemen circa 8 years ago. In that video, you see the jet going to afterburner/reheat, manoeuvring, and deploying IR flares to attempt to decoy to missile.
The F-35 in the video appears to do none of those things, which is suspicious. Of course, it could have been a low-level SAM-bush with IR SAM or MANPAD, which would have reduced reaction time, but it's still somewhat iffy.
balmy trail
It definitely appears to be an F-35A, but I agree that there are some questions ...
SAM-bush 😂 is that a technical term?
waxen rock
It definitely appears to be an F-35A, but I agree that there are some questions ...
the iranian claim seems to be non-MANPAD, which if true means most likely radar guided.
weak pike
SAM-bush 😂 is that a technical term?
Probably more of a colloquialism, I've heard it used on the Fighter Pilot Podcast and in other military aviation themed content. Although I apologise - apparently it's "SAMbush" 😂
balmy trail
Probably more of a colloquialism, I've heard it used on the Fighter Pilot Podcas...
I’m here for it 😆
novel sail
Quick search reveals that "Sam Bush (born April 13, 1952) is an American mandolinist who is considered an originator of progressive bluegrass music."
azure glade
It definitely appears to be an F-35A, but I agree that there are some questions ...
Lack of evasive maneuvers isn't particularly suspicious. There are lots of optically-guided SAMs these days, to avoid anti-radiation missiles. RWRs can also have blindspots. I'm not sure if the F-35 has an optical missile launch system or not.
weak pike
Lack of evasive maneuvers isn't particularly suspicious. There are lots of optic...
Agreed, and it's we know that the Iranians definitely have those weapon systems. But at the same time, the F-35's EODAS, MAWS etc are designed to detect launches of missiles, if not also track them in flight.
azure glade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/AAQ-37_Distributed_Aperture_System
F-35's missile launch detection system is mounted on the nose, so probably wouldn't see a launch from behind or below. (Edit: I guess the EODAS is supposed to be 360 and this is just one component of that system.)
novel sail
Agreed, and it's we know that the Iranians definitely have those weapon systems....
Question is how much of that is integrated and active.
fallen spear
I don't expect that would trigger on an SA-67 loitering SAM already in the air, for example, though other sensors probably would.
novel sail
Given the fact that they have used similar videos for false claims before i concider the video fake until proven otherwise. As for the F-35 that actually was hit it can just as well be a lucky AAA-gun.
weak pike
I don't expect that would trigger on an SA-67 loitering SAM already in the air, ...
This SAM is more designed to counter UASs like Reapers, helicopters and potentially the V-22 Osprey. It would take a lot of luck to take down a fast jet with one.
azure glade
Perhaps more importantly, the video going around is, err, not something you can fly home and make an emergency landing from.
tiny path
Is there a reason the video hasn't been shared on here?
novel sail
Is there a reason the video hasn't been shared on here?
It has been, but those have since been deleted so link goes to nowhere.
tiny path
If another version surfaces it'd be helpful to share so folks know what's being discussed.
balmy trail
It has been, but those have since been deleted so link goes to nowhere.
This link still works. Although dubious account, it’s the same video being discussed
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034666586213155234?s=20
tiny path
That's the F-35 footage. Folks are talking about second one that reportedly shows an F-15 getting shot down.
balmy trail
Oh my bad, must’ve missed that
novel sail
That's the F-35 footage. Folks are talking about second one that reportedly show...
Ah. That one is older and showed up when i did a reverse image search of the F-35. But the video is here https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVhG_e0jR5e/
Instagram
smoky pulsar
Would this be the first combat direct fire on an f-35
weak pike
Would this be the first combat direct fire on an f-35
Reportedly the Houthis tried a couple of years ago, but this is the first time we know of an F-35 sustaining potential battle damage. As others have said, I'm more inclined to believe it was a MANPAD or AAA but it's too soon to know for sure.
Interestingly, this post was from early March, but very much remains relevant.
undone bison
X
void roost
CBS reporters highlights danger for 3 trapped Thai sailors from earlier strike. They are stuck in engine room.
azure glade
https://x.com/i/status/2034703730981876131
If it's a cruise missile it will come from any direction it pleases, of course.
fossil summit
little basalt
Is it reasonable to say that the F-35 situation is "Real Event, video probably not totally accurate"?
novel sail
Is it reasonable to say that the F-35 situation is "Real Event, video probably n...
This is what's credible https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/19/politics/f-35-damage-iran-war
tiny path
Notable that the CNN article does not reference an F-15 getting shot down by Iran:
The US has lost other aircraft in the war thus far, though none known to have been hit by enemy fire. Three US F-15 fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses, with all six crew members ejecting safely. And last week, a KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, though the cause is still unclear. The US military said the incident was “not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.”
timid vine
It looks like the rumours were true:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-debate-us-bases-military-alliance/a-76414229
balmy trail
It looks like the rumours were true:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-...
Can you give some context as to what rumours?
timid vine
Can you give some context as to what rumours?
Ah yes. There were rumours that the Gulf states were reconsidering their relationship with the US and the US bases on their territories.
The article proves them true.
fossil summit
It looks like the rumours were true:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-...
I will find the video, but I heard an analyst say that gulf state leaders/businessmen consulted Trump multiple times/shared their concerns and he decided to go ahead anyway.
But I guess this is saying that he didn’t share that he was going ahead anyway
timid vine
I will find the video, but I heard an analyst say that gulf state leaders/busine...
The article itself claims so too.
serene walrus
It looks like the rumours were true:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-...
it's somewhat contradictory though since there's also reporting that the same gulf states want the US to hit Iran super hard now, though it's probably an order of operations deal
When I say order of operations, I mean it seems like the gulf states would like to deal with Iran first to as close to the final/maximal extent possible before reassessing what the relationship with the US would look like moving forward
void roost
Six amphibious ships will add about 8,000 service members in the region, including 4,000-5,000 Marines.
weak pike
deep folio
This link still works. Although dubious account, it’s the same video being discu...
alright I may be off base here but there are a number of factors that lead me to believe this is fake. The thermal sig disappears after the detonation. this could be due to acclimation, but personally I feel the plume shown on camera to not be big enough. also, Iran wouldn't just share their own imaging systems. Thats an opsec violation
the more I think about this clip, the more obviously its fake. at the same time, an f-35 was hit
I mean it literally looks like a cut out
there is no difference between the exhaust and the fuselage
there is no way the exhaust temp and the fuselage temp are the same in any jet, let alone a stealth coated f35
tiny path
Unless the imaging/targeting system isn't looking at heat?
deep folio
then how is it detecting the exhaust
woeful oar
I mean when it comes to the last point we did accidentally tell everyone where our carrier was from a social media post.
deep folio
I mean when it comes to the last point we *did* accidentally tell everyone where...
again, an f35 was hit, that is confirmed. I just dont think this is footage of that
tiny path
then how is it detecting the exhaust
"detecting the exhaust" because it's part of the object that's moving across the unmoving background.
deep folio
"detecting the exhaust" because it's part of the object that's moving across the...
that would still be thermal, there is nothing physical for it to detect in its wake
tiny path
Idk man, I don't speak Farsi. But guessing about this stuff without something more concrete is just conjecture.
azure glade
I don't think it's real footage, but just because you have a thermal camera doesn't mean that the color scale is set up to dynamically color scale the range of temperatures that happens to be on screen at any one time.
woeful oar
It looks very Arma 3 to me personally. Everything is extremely uniform and what happens after the explosion seems to look very off.
void roost
fallen spear
there is no way the exhaust temp and the fuselage temp are the same in any jet, ...
This would happen if you saturated the image, so that everything at or above a certain IR brightness appears the same colour.
The emissivity will be different anyway, so you wouldn't necessarily expect the same colour to mean the same temperature on different surfaces, just the same amount of IR radiation (until saturated).
deep folio
This would happen if you saturated the image, so that everything at or above a c...
I can't imagine a case where the plane is emitting the same amount of ir as the exhaust, especially if they are in afterburner
As it appears
night shuttle
Due to a lack of consensus it seems like we'll need to wait for additional information
void roost
near grail
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/20/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-of-intensified-strikes-if-energy-sites-targeted
Saudi, Kuwait, UAE reporting rounds of missile/drone attacks
waxen rock
iranian state TV releases an undated video of mojtaba khamenei teaching at seminary, in an apparent effort to introduce him to the public
rustic pivot
void roost
Video of damage in Old Jerusalem https://www.threads.com/@treyyingst/post/DWHBqFHEqNo?
timid slate
weak pike
novel sail
https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/american-spy-iran-monica-witt-sec...
Is it the same person on both pics?
weak pike
Is it the same person on both pics?
The FBI certainly think so:
timid jungle
The FBI certainly think so:
Can you share a link to that source?
weak pike
Can you share a link to that source?
It's in the Times article linked above. It wasn't paywalled for me but not sure if it is for others
marsh torrent
https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/american-spy-iran-monica-witt-sec...
A linguist who left the Air Force in 2008 and moved to Iran in 2013 probably doesn’t have much information that would be useful to Iran in 2026.
timid jungle
serene walrus
https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034989858184106316?s=20 Seems like that F-35 is essentially a write off
FxTwitter
weak pike
A linguist who left the Air Force in 2008 and moved to Iran in 2013 probably doe...
I agree to an extent, I think that damage will already have been done and then mitigated against by the US. But they could still use her educated opinion on certain things.
fossil summit
left basin
https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034989858184106316?s=20 Seems like ...
Just another way of saying it's heading to the scrap yard.
weak pike
Or will be cannibalised for parts. As the production line it still open, the purchase of an off the shelf replacement, especially if that replacement will be a Block 4, would make sense.
novel sail
https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034989858184106316?s=20 Seems like ...
Traditionally it doesnt count as a combat loss if they manage to land after a hit, even if the plane is a write off.
Edit: But the total tally should be:
3x F-15
1x F-35
7-or so Kc-135.
novel sail
Or will be cannibalised for parts. As the production line it still open, the pur...
I would say that w/o means that you save what parts that can be saved and scrap the airframe. its nothing unique for the F-35.
serene walrus
Traditionally it doesnt count as a combat loss if they manage to land after a hi...
we lost 7 refulers? I thought we only had one lost and one damaged
novel sail
we lost 7 refulers? I thought we only had one lost and one damaged
Plus the ones damaged on ground.
serene walrus
ah, i didn't know about those
left basin
weak pike
void roost
rustic pivot
shadow vortex
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce84073mr06t?app-referrer=push-notification&post...
Whats the practical reason the US specifically need to use the UK base for bombers carrying huge bunker busting munitions?
weak pike
Whats the practical reason the US specifically need to use the UK base for bombe...
USAF bombers use RAF Fairford for forward basing (you can find aviation photographers posting photos online of B-1Bs being bombed up with JDAMs from outside the wire). It allows them to target the reported underground missile and UAS launching sites around the SOH that can and are targeting ships. They may also be using Diego Garcia, so this additionally opens up a larger target set for bombers operating from there.
BBC News - Iran War: Houses near RAF Fairford 'being shaken' by US bombers - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx9lrk0vn8o?app-referrer=deep-link
velvet zenith
BREAKING: Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign companies as the region's military operations disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing most of its crude exports from moving, oil ministry sources said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iraq-declares-force-majeure-foreign-operated-oilfields-over-hormuz-disruption-2026-03-20/
knotty cedar
RIGHT! I'm glad I asked. Now I feel better!
His answers are always "I'll figure it out" or "You'll see soon"
He never had a plan about anything.
https://bsky.app/profile/nikkimcr.bsky.social/post/3mhjbqth35k2i
weak pike
prime torrent
His answers are always "I'll figure it out" or "You'll see soon"
He never had a ...
I've also noticed a ton of him saying two opposite things being true at the same time recently
"Yeah the war is over and it's also just starting"
"We need help opening the Strait, and we don't need any help"
"Iran's nuclear program was obliterated last year, and we had to attack them now to destroy their nuclear program"
lament lichen
His answers are always "I'll figure it out" or "You'll see soon"
He never had a ...
Not only the first part, but the "why would I ever say anything to reporters" part is pure ignorance from this administration. You have to make a case to the US people and allies, and they arent doing anything other than "just trust me"
night haven
His answers are always "I'll figure it out" or "You'll see soon"
He never had a ...
This is the second or third time I've heard him say something like 'why would I tell a reporter?' I don't him saying this last year during the attacks on Iran or even in the first days of this war, so I'm wondering if he's been coached not to say anything specific to the Press either for military or political safety reasons
void roost
UK + other nations issue statement on Strait of Hormuzz https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026
Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning
void roost
I've also noticed *a ton* of him saying two opposite things being true at the sa...
Is this is an attempt to end it and declare victory?
balmy trail
Is this is an attempt to end it and declare victory?
https://trumpstruth.org/s...
I don’t buy it.
near grail
Trying to think of another crisis that Trump downplayed a lot, remembering his approach to COVID in his previous presidency:
||https://www.npr.org/sections/latest-updates-trump-covid-19-results/2020/10/02/919432383/how-trump-has-downplayed-the-coronavirus-pandemic ||
not Iran-related directly, just seems like he's using a similar PR approach
balmy trail
The new posturing of troops in the region indicates the complete opposite of this and correct me if I’m wrong but havent Iran stated they won’t stop targeting US assets and companies in the region until they withdraw from the region entirely? Iran have the upper hand right now with the energy crisis playing out exactly how they wanted. I can’t see any reason for Iran to stop attacking right now which is inevitably going to invoke a continuing response
fossil summit
It doesn’t seem like Israel is slowing down, either.
Also they just asked for 200 billion.
fossil summit
Is this is an attempt to end it and declare victory?
https://trumpstruth.org/s...
Sounds like he’s trying to placate Arab nations that are on the fence now
near grail
Right, I remember this article:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/04/evacuation-middle-east-iran-war-00812898
U.S. Central Command, meanwhile, is asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September, according to a notification obtained by POLITICO.
of course these things can change, but I don't see how Trump can 'claim victory' if the Strait hasn't been cleared for mines & other oil producing nations have infrastructure under attack each day
void roost
https://www.threads.com/@meidastouch/post/DWH__akAasV
Spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Oil: "At present, Iran essentially has no crude oil left floating on water or surplus for supply in other international markets, and the statement by the US Treasury Secretary is merely aimed at giving hope to buyers and psychologically controlling the market."
azure glade
When does Iran take payment for oil shipped in foreign hulls, anyhow? Upon loading?
void roost
WSJ:
"Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean..One of the missiles failed in flight, and a U.S. warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other"
left basin
WSJ:
"Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) at Diego Garci...
Diego Garcia is further away from Iran than the vast majority of Europe is.
Makes one think
void roost
Diego Garcia is further away from Iran than the vast majority of Europe is.
Yes I have seen a few maps online that show this distance could strike a lot of east/central Europe.
balmy trail
Came across this map of when they were believed to be capable of reaching 2000km. The UK is approx 4400km away, worrying to think.
thin nest
Of note, because of the distance... https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-targets-but-fails-to-hit-us-uk-diego-garcia-military-base-report/
Iran’s targeting of Diego Garcia, some 4,000 kilometers from Iran, indicates its missiles have a greater range than Tehran has previously acknowledged, the Journal points out. It notes that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed last month that Iran has limited the range of its missiles to 2,000 kilometers.
serene walrus
Of note, because of the distance... https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
It could be bait tbf
shadow vortex
fossil summit
https://x.com/ClimateAudit/status/2034684565067849998?s=20
It turns out that the list was plagiarized by the White House from a June 19, 2025 list (https://fdd.org/analysis/2025/06/19/iranian-and-iranian-backed-attacks-against-americans-1979-present/) prepared by a former AIPAC employee (Tzvi Kahn) for a think tank (FDD) founded "to provide education to enhance Israel's image in North America". The think tank's original identity was "EMET (Hebrew for 'truth')". The June 19, 2025 publication was literally on the eve of the first US bombing of Iran on June 21, 2025.
viral storm
Came across this map of when they were believed to be capable of reaching 2000km...
Likely built from this:
Also, their limit was self imposed rather than by virtue of tech limitations. Their satellite launches have been seen as dual use platform testing.
glad vector
Came across this map of when they were believed to be capable of reaching 2000km...
note that the maximum range of a missile depends both on the total energy the motor can deliver and the weight of the thing being thrown. So it's always possible to extend the range of a missile by just taking off most of the payload
azure glade
Diego Garcia is further away from Iran than the vast majority of Europe is.
That's what the missile defense project in the noughts was supposed to be about (besides pointlessly antagonizing Russia). In retrospect, it looks quite strange, given the actual targets of Iranian missiles.
waxen rock
Iran is planning to enshrine a “new status” for the Strait of Hormuz to require every passing ship to pay fees to Tehran for the privilege, Expediency Council member Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to the supreme leader on economic affairs, told the country’s Mehr news agency.
shadow vortex
> Iran is planning to enshrine a “new status” for the Strait of Hormuz to requir...
Any assessments of military feasibility out there? As I understand, the strait is either safe or not safe... Iran doesn't have the capacity to "police" the strait with boardings, only to attack from afar, which creates risk for even friendly ships. So wouldn't this mechanism just be a shakedown for letting trapped mariners already there leave, rather than anyone coming in?
waxen rock
the WSJ doesn't give any details of such a plan, so who knows. but i think it's clear that iran's war strategy is to drive up oil prices in the short term, and it's possible to interpret this statement more in that light than as any feasible long-term strategy.
serene walrus
void roost
Multiple videos online of purported strike on Dimona in Israel. https://www.threads.com/@globalvulture/post/DWJ4R3WEyN-?
golden granite
We've got a new piece out showing that the US and Israel have been heavily targeting tunnel entrances at Iran's underground missile bases in an effort to slow or block launches https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-21-26?post-id=cmmz8n2ln001726p403ex2jiy
A pair of interesting sat images that didn't make the piece: A damaged launcher at Isfahan North that was evidently hit right as it was about to fire and a truck driving into one of the still unblocked tunnel entrances (could be a launcher, could be supplies or something like a propellant delivery). (Both pics from Airbus)
serene walrus
Is there a tracker of how many missile and drone launches iran has done?
midnight salmon
Is there a tracker of how many missile and drone launches iran has done?
The Economist has an article that is a few days old but has some graphs about interceptions: https://www.economist.com/international/2026/03/13/gulf-states-are-burning-through-interceptors
serene walrus
https://fixupx.com/scottlincicome/status/2035373657652859303?s=20
Do we trust cato on this
void roost
Saudi Arabia expels Iranian diplomats, joining Qatar
https://www.threads.com/@yasharali/post/DWKOdIMkg5Q?
BREAKING
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has declared the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military attaché, all personnel in his office, and three additional Iranian diplomats persona non grata, giving them 72 hours to leave the country.
The Kingdom says it is expelling these officials in response to continued attacks on Saudi territory by the Islamic Republic.
Saudi Arabia joins Qatar, which declared the regime’s military attaché and his staff persona non grata a few days ago.
fossil summit
https://fixupx.com/scottlincicome/status/2035373657652859303?s=20
Do we trust ...
In the congressional hearing from last week, this was alluded to — Gabbard couldn’t say whether Iran posed an imminent threat and certainly Mojtaba is “more hardline than” his father https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5792638-gabbard-grilling-iran-nuclear-threat/
So hard-line that even some of Iran’s leaders thought he was too aggressive,” Crow, who also sits on the House Armed Services Committee, asked Gabbard. “Isn’t that correct?”
“That is the intelligence community assessment, yes,” Gabbard told Crow, before also confirming that the new supreme leader is close with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their most “hard-line” commanders.
void roost
Arad in Israel many casualties
waxen rock
https://fixupx.com/scottlincicome/status/2035373657652859303?s=20
Do we trust ...
we check cato's sources, and here they're "two people familiar with" US intelligence assessments
https://archive.ph/BAxI5
it's worth noting that wapo has had some stories on this war that other outlets couldn't verify, like their early bit about how saudi arabia encouraged trump to attack
viral storm
To the folks who are tracking strikes in Iran, a quick reminder that Nowruz involves a lot of bonfires.
viral storm
https://fixupx.com/scottlincicome/status/2035373657652859303?s=20
Do we trust ...
Given the current leadership, I don't know about collapse, but most certainly they're the extreme wing. Israel wasn't careful about avoiding moderates.
While it's not for this thread, I certainly have opinions on the likelihood of how things will play out in the coming years depending on when the hot war portion of this ends.
void roost
This is a very difficult evening in the campaign for our future. A short time ago, I spoke with the Mayor of Arad, Yair Maayan, and asked him to convey our prayers on behalf of all Israeli citizens for the peace of the wounded. I have instructed the Director General of my office to provide the full assistance required, together with all government ministries. I am strengthening the emergency and rescue forces currently operating in the field, and I call on everyone to obey the Home Front Command's instructions. We are determined to continue striking our enemies on all fronts.
void roost
Trump issues 48 hour deadline to Iran to reopen the strait of he will destroy power plants https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37387
charred silo
https://www.news18.com/world/after-trumps-ultimatum-iran-threatens-to-target-enemys-desalination-plants-why-it-matters-9990499.html
Iran says it will attack desalination plants if Trump follows through on his threat
shadow vortex
https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/2035563178051146164?s=20
(Trusted energy wonk)
X
rustic pivot
waxen rock
https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/2035563178051146164?s=20
(Trusted energy wonk)
https://pod.link/1056200096/episode/YWQyNmY2ZjctMjBmYy00NDEyLWI2NTQtYjQxMzAwNTE3YTQz
odd lots interviews an expert on iranian oil infrastructure. notably, he doesn't think that the seizure of kharg island would cripple exports enough to induce capitulation. he also thinks it would empower the IRGC, partly because the IRGC profits from alternate oil smuggling routes into iraq.
radiant kiln
midnight horizon
https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37398
More something for #1330709161385922650 I think.
serene walrus
https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/2035563178051146164?s=20
(Trusted energy wonk)
I thought the problem with the Iranian grid has been not being able to get enough energy to power it, since even before this war the Iranians have had issue with blackouts
shadow vortex
https://pod.link/1056200096/episode/YWQyNmY2ZjctMjBmYy00NDEyLWI2NTQtYjQxMzAwNTE3...
The issue with the Iraqi smuggling routes is that the US already has a strong beat on them there, and prior to this war has been issuing ultimatums to Iraq regarding reelecting al Maliki and continuing to smuggle Iranian oil. US has a lot of weapons to play against Baghdad, not least of which is effective control of Iraq's oil revenues through the NY Federal Reserve and US coordination with Iraqi Kurdistan.
waxen rock
he mentions at least two other ways iran has to get oil exported as well. i think his point was not so much that smuggling could completely replace kharg island as that the general effect would be contrary to america's stated goals
rustic pivot
write-up version of analysis: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221525/analysis-of-patriot-incident-in-bahrain/
carmine hollow
he mentions at least two other ways iran has to get oil exported as well. i thin...
I can't seem to find a non paywalled transcript, but his focus wasn't on smuggling as much as it was on other licit sources of export, including other ports and rail facilities.
proven tulip
His answers are always "I'll figure it out" or "You'll see soon"
He never had a ...
Mainly I am/was asking because bombing a country into oblivion is a big show, but without actual people there to take over the levers of power, I genuinely don't get what they're trying to accomplish.
floral dawn
Iran threatens to destroy Gulf’s energy infrastructure after Trump ultimatum
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/22/iran-war-latest-news-trump-threatens-power-plants-hormuz/
Iran has threatened to “irreversibly destroy” energy infrastructure across the Middle East in response to an ultimatum from Donald Trump.
The US president said earlier he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
fossil summit
Iran threatens to destroy Gulf’s energy infrastructure after Trump ultimatum
ht...
I suppose this is in addition to the desalination plants?
floral dawn
I suppose this is in addition to the desalination plants?
Yes it appears so
fossil summit
timid vine
Do we have any verification on the rumour that Iran wants to allow ships to pasa so long as they switch buying in dollars to yuan?
I have seen it floating around but have not seen any confirmation.
tiny path
This is the most solid source I can find for it:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3346617/does-iran-have-yuan-hormuz-oil-trade-plan-why-analysts-china-are-urging-caution
archive: https://archive.is/JSN5w
timid vine
Thank you!
tiny path
There's an article on the FT about the ships that have gotten through:
https://archive.is/mKgf0
No mention of currency denominations.
sinful pagoda
Mapping the damage at Fujairah with open sourced satellite imagery: https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3mhogq3n5e224
weak pike
Has there been any official de-bunking of Iran's video claiming that they hit / shot down a USAF F-15E Strike Eagle? Because I'm 99.9% sure that the jet in the video is absolutely not shaped like any production model F-15 I've ever seen. It appears to have notable leading edge extensions (LEXs) such as a no canard Flanker variant, like the Su-27 or Su-35. The US Navy F/A-18E-F Super Hornets have LEXs, but the shape of the jet doesn't look right. Between these LEXs and the general shape, I'm confident it's not any aircraft in the American or Israeli inventory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgANa8UUsqM
novel sail
Has there been any official de-bunking of Iran's video claiming that they hit / ...
What you see is a plane dropping flares. nothing is hit.
tiny path
I'm having a hard time getting a version of the video that's not edited in utterly frustrating ways. Was the original on Twitter?
novel sail
Its safe to say that all of these videos can be assumed as fakes until backed up by a more reliable source.
tiny path
Doing a general search for references to F-15s in the last 24 hours has plenty of hits but I would not call any of them reputable.
void roost
void roost
shadow vortex
X
fossil summit
https://x.com/ireallyhateyou/status/2035779470729064870?s=20
I’m looking through their tweets and replies and I’m not seeing that exact message?
near grail
Could be deleted?
fossil summit
I’m not someone who reads Hebrew, though, so it’s possible I missed something.
fossil summit
Could be deleted?
Sure, just also weary in case it’s fake.
Oh I see the first link saying she later deleted it, sorry.
night haven
Oh I see the first link saying she later deleted it, sorry.
Is there any way to verify a deleted post because this post as written is riffing off the upcoming holiday of Passover which could make it legit but it could also make it a modern-day type of blood libel
tiny path
None of the four tweets on Archive Today match the deleted post:
https://archive.is/https://x.com/oritperlov*
night haven
None of the four tweets on Archive Today match the deleted post:
https://archive...
I don't read modern Hebrew fluently, but I can read it at a basic level and I do read liturgical/biblical Hebrew much better. Something seems to be off about the opening lines of the tweet here. It might just be my Hebrew but I don't think so. I'm going to take a closer look tomorrow and see if I can figure out what specific wording feels off
fossil summit
None of the four tweets on Archive Today match the deleted post:
https://archive...
I didn’t know you could do this; so it would capture posts even if they were deleted and no one saved the post as an archive? or are you just mentioning that if it was controversial someone would likely have archived it before it was deleted?
tiny path
Oh, yeah, that's absolutely a core reason for Archive Today. It allows you to capture something for future citation even if the author deletes it.
quartz vapor
I think that it's misleading to only post the translation of the most inflammatory part of the tweet and the not the context in which she's making the argument that the alternative that trump proposed is much worse.
tiny path
I didn’t know you could do this; so it would capture posts even if they were del...
But in this case no one submitted the original post (if it existed) so there's no record of it at Archive Today.
floral dawn
I don't read modern Hebrew fluently, but I can read it at a basic level and I do...
Out of curiosity more than anything I uploaded the screenshot of the alledged deleted tweet and asked ChatGPT if it might be real or fake (as an exercise to see what ChatGPT would say about it). It listed a lot of red flags with the Hebrew text as well.
The content and tone of the Hebrew text are… off:
- Some phrases are awkward or unnatural in Hebrew, almost like they were translated into Hebrew rather than written by a native speaker.
- The structure jumps oddly between ideas (policy → children → Trump → infrastructure) without clear flow.
- Certain expressions (like “approach of tears” or the way Gaza/Lebanon are referenced) don’t sound like typical professional or analytical writing.
undone bison
I don't read modern Hebrew fluently, but I can read it at a basic level and I do...
The different accounts posting about it translated it, so there are three languages I saw of screenshots now while looking. You can't fake that.
civic delta
https://www.threads.com/@foxnews/post/DWNO2A8DezL?
Discussion on why Iran is using more cluster munitions now.
tacit aspen
Out of curiosity more than anything I uploaded the screenshot of the alledged de...
I would recommend to not bias LLM's by asking it to see if the translation is correct or not, as then the LLM might then try to find mistakes even if there isn't one. Asking it for a straight up translation would yield better results. Another thing to note is that ChatGPT in these contexts in my experience is less reliable than other frontier models like Gemini, and Claude
floral dawn
I would recommend to not bias LLM's by asking it to see if the translation is co...
Simply asking for a translation was my first step 🙂 I was just curious to see what it would say, I never take it for gospel. I just thought it was interesting that it mentioned inconsistencies with the Hebrew text as well.
tacit aspen
Simply asking for a translation was my first step 🙂 I was just curious to see w...
Oh, I see. I thought the LLM was prompted to check if the Translation was correct or not based on the "asked ChatGPT if it might be real or fake". But I understand now.
tacit aspen
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-completely-close-hormuz-if-trump-...
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/us-strikes-iran-mine-ships-strait-of-hormuz-war-oil.html
Based on this, the US has doesn't have effective mine countermeasure capability in the region.
While the Navy did not provide a breakdown of the risks, the U.S. had decommissioned four Avenger-class minesweepers that were stationed in Bahrain in late 2025.
The replacement vessels for the Avenger-class, the Independence-class littoral combat ships, have “struggled to meet the requirements of operational mine countermeasures missions,” according to global naval publication Naval News.
While Iran is stated to have a stockpile 2000-6000 mines, and in my understanding even a fraction of it could pretty much close the straight by itself, missiles aren't necessary (assuming that US is able to achieve it's objective of eliminating Iranian Missile capabilities).
While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines, the report said.
Does the US currently have any good way of countering this (either directly or through the help of allies)? + I doubt it, but I'll ask anyways, has the US spoken on how they plan on dealing with this issue?
waxen rock
priyom has traced the v32 farsi number station to...a US military base in germany
night haven
The different accounts posting about it translated it, so there are three langua...
So are you saying this makes the Tweet authentic and from the authentic account it claims to be? Or are you saying the translation must be correct because it came out basically the same in multiple languages?
night haven
Out of curiosity more than anything I uploaded the screenshot of the alledged de...
Did you instruct ChatGPT to account for liturgical Passover language when analyzing? Some of the languages is clearly connected to the language of the Passover Seder (the reference to their firstborn to name just one). This is a level of Hebrew I'm familiar reading. But it isn't straight quotes from there and even accounting for that it's still reads awkward to me.
azure glade
Discussion on why Iran is using more cluster munitions now.
https://fixupx.com...
Err, a CEP of kilometers isn't really good enough for attacking airbases. Especially if they have HAS.
waxen rock
Sure, just also weary in case it’s fake.
orit perlov is a professional social media analyst. she reports on incitement for a living:
https://www.inss.org.il/publication/palestinian-discourse/
that doesn't mean she couldn't have posted and deleted her own incitement, but it's a claim that merits caution.
novel sail
sinful pagoda
Link here https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116278232362967212
It's good to remind that Trump and timelines often do not match reality (the most notable case, the infamous "2 weeks" that he keeps invoking regarding Ukraine and Russia)
sinful pagoda
But the effect in the market is definitely there, Brent oil hovering shyly below 100$ and it was even lower at the time of the announcement https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwislPTW-LWTAxWSZqQEHc5oGjcQ3ecFegQIGBAT
slender idol
But the effect in the market is definitely there, Brent oil hovering shyly below...
Also, important to note, that extending the timeline by five days also conveniently pushes it to the weekend and continuing the trend the 2nd Trump administration has when it comes with military action not occurring on trading days.
waxen rock
iran denies there were any talks
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce35wke27ynt?post=asset%3Aa19495c2-b263-49b8-b04b-a8879eb9ab57#post
sinful pagoda
iran denies there were any talks
<https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce35wke27ynt?pos...
Yes, verifying what politicians say should always be the baseline but I think we can agree that with Trump that should be emphasised evenmore.
When he says something it should be framed as "he is saying this and can cause an effect" (like this announcement having an effect in oil prices) rather than a statement for a predictable course of action and a source of evidence. So don't assume there are talks or that there will be no attack within 5 days and let's focus instead on what can be verified through open sources.
waxen rock
i'm not sure why you're directing this at me
sinful pagoda
I'm replying to follow up on your message, using it as example to raise that, that's all. No ill intent 
And now on a different topic, an update on the US strike in Minab that killed more than 100 children: it seems the US relied on very outdated information despite openly available information from 10 years ago showing that the school wasn't part of the targeted military compound https://bsky.app/profile/davidallengreen.bsky.social/post/3mhpzzvijys2p
undone bison
Side related https://x.com/i/status/2036055073969656022
X
prime torrent
timid vine
Yes, verifying what politicians say should always be the baseline but I think we...
Also "he wants that to be true but there is a significant chance its just him wishing it to"
void roost
Different clip of Trump discussing talks with Iran.
Reporter: Iran’s foreign ministry says you’re not telling the truth when it comes to productive conversations to end the war…
rustic pivot
Bluesky
serene walrus
Discussion on why Iran is using more cluster munitions now.
https://fixupx.com...
I think its more likely a stockpile consideration since their missile launches are far less now than they were at the start of the conflict and there's still solid intercept rates happening to my understanding
shadow vortex
orit perlov is a professional social media analyst. she reports on incitement fo...
Thanks for the context!
inland zealot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Bagher_Ghalibaf
This is the guy reported to be negotiating with the US delegation.
near grail
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Bagher_Ghalibaf
This is the guy reported...
reported where?
inland zealot
reported where?
balmy trail
https://x.com/i/status/2036085204943548704
Worth noting this is being denied by the official mentioned.
fossil summit
What a mess.
balmy trail
Also after Trumps “there’s nobody to talk with in Iran” remarks over the weekend, I don’t think talks have happened yet. Seems to be a pattern of Trump trying to dictate the narrative before the story has unfolded, often saying things are or have happened then we see reports they have requested the thing but not done the thing.
fading elm
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mhqissd7ic2m creating an environment of distrust around official war messaging is certainly a choice
void roost
Israel continues strikes on Tehran http://reut.rs/4dFQI8J
proud crow
shadow vortex
https://x.com/AbasAslani/status/2036104893010743594?s=20
This report by an Iran-based analyst is plausible, fits with conficting reports about Iranians reaching out for negotiations. Might be more about trying to make the White House appear publicly split between "Israel first" and "America first", which is a consistent theme in their English language messaging (while their Arabic language messaging is about dividing GCC from the US and Israel.)
balmy trail
Good article here if you wanna learn about the strategic importance of Qeshm Island, feel as though this place will be of high interest for any ground forces looking to enter the conflict.
It’s still being reported that both sides are saying conflicting things regarding negotiations, both screenshots from the Guardians live coverage.
Analysis on the same topic from AJ here.
spice crypt
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mhqissd7ic2m creating...
They’re turning this into a money making war since they’ve realized Iran won’t capitulate, their thinking “okay, might as well make my friends some money then”
viral storm
Simply asking for a translation was my first step 🙂 I was just curious to see w...
Apologies for resurrecting this, but please don't trust any of the current LLM models to properly translate on a good day, and especially in terms of handling the nuance of religious or other context. This goes double for liturgical language.
It's also well known in machine learning circles that these systems cannot detect fakes any better than people, and can even add in erroneous guidance on detection because it's not actually following a guideline like you or I might.
Combine this with missing non-English datasets and really any use of LLMs for translation or fake detection is a dubious process at best.
Always remember, LLMs are probability filters built to output what you want to hear from it. There isn't a dataset for the color orange based on photon wavelength that's referenced, only a probability that orange might equal an explosion in an image.
To the machine system, Hebrew, English, and Farsi are all equal options to start translation from, and functionally it's handling all text like we would the Voynich manuscript.
The best tools to start with in translation are non-LLM and the absolute last choice should be to use them. Better to email scholars and native speakers than to use LLM.
If folks aren't comfortable engaging with scholars/native speakers on any given topic (it's okay to be shy), there's absolutely no shame in asking someone else to try to speak with them. OSINT is about collective work, and that includes asking others to do what you can't.
night haven
If folks aren't comfortable engaging with scholars/native speakers on any given ...
Even with my background in biblical / liturgical Hebrew, normally I would pass something like this on to a friend of mine in Israel who works as a professional translator. However with the current situation in Israel I don't want to traumatize her with text like this just before Passover. While it's probably not a big deal, I'm now stuck on it and so I'll probably run it past someone in my local community who is fluent when I have the chance. I can also say from experience that LLMs aren't good for this type of work. Even using them as I do to try to figure out a missing word and an audio stream for a language I'm learning (Afrikaans) where the LLM can be helpful specifically because of probability and context, it still makes mistakes and it's obvious it's more interested in offering a pleasing authoritative sounding answer than being certain it is accurate. For things like what we do here and especially when you have a mix of liturgical and modern language, that's going to lead to something that sounds authoritative but may be completely wrong
viral storm
Even with my background in biblical / liturgical Hebrew, normally I would pass s...
One of the many reasons I don't trust commercial LLMs (and most translation software in general) with any of this is that I've seen people misunderstand how Farsi works as a language. LLMs treat it the way English speakers do, but Farsi (at least as my father describes it) is much more metaphorical/poetic, so rote translation will fail horribly. Having seen others comment similarly, I'm inclined to believe it.
Combine that with having seen how hard it is for literal religious scholars debate liturgical language (see ReligionForBreakfast as a great series on trying to parse things across history and multiple denominations) and it's pretty clear that LLMs just aren't going to handle this.
void roost
charred silo
It seems oil prices are down substantially today, ~10% for Brent crude
(https://oilprice.com/)
Does this primarily reflect that Trump backed down from the power plants threat, or is there something else I missed to explain that shift?
tiny path
The only notable change in the last 24 hours is Trump's announcement that he's pausing his planned attacks for five days.
near grail
It seems oil prices are down substantially today, ~10% for Brent crude
(https:/...
see #1473081625775706295 message
waxen rock
It seems oil prices are down substantially today, ~10% for Brent crude
(https:/...
CNBC believes it's trump backing down
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/oil-prices-trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-wti-crude-middle-east-lng-gas.html
fossil summit
Has anyone seen anything additional about the marines deployed? when do they/did they arrive?
near grail
Has anyone seen anything additional about the marines deployed? when do they/did...
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/20/boxer-amphibious-ready-group-11th-meu-deploy-from-california
The ARG and Marines with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit completed certification exercises, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News.
Big deck amphibious warship USS Boxer (LHD-4) left Wednesday from San Diego, Calif., while dock landing ship USS Comstock (LSD-45) and amphibious transport dock USS Portland (LPD-27) left Thursday, according to ship spotters.
...
USS Tripoli (LHA-7), USS New Orleans (LPD-18) and elements of the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are getting closer to the Middle East after transiting the Strait of Malacca this week. USS San Diego (LPD-22), which was operating with Tripoli and New Orleans earlier this month, is now in port in Sasebo, Japan, according to a U.S. Pacific Fleet spokesperson.
fossil summit
So still on the way
near grail
I'm not an expert in naval timelines, but this article seems to wrap up the important ships & units to watch
fossil summit
Was just wondering if they arrive conveniently at the end of the 5 days.
near grail
These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of March 23, 2026, based on Navy and public data. In cases in which a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the capital ship.
tiny path
Diego Garcia is approximately 2200 nautical miles from the Strait of Hormuz. A ship going just under 20 knots could traverse that distance in five days. The published speed of the USS Tripoli is 22 knots.
balmy trail
I think this is what’s commonly known as ‘winging it’ 🤦🏻♂️
it’ll be interesting to see the Iranian response if this were to be true, I can’t see him being alive for long if he’s being publicly named as a US backed/aligned candidate
serene walrus
I think this is what’s commonly known as ‘winging it’ 🤦🏻♂️
it’ll be interest...
he's an ex IRGC commander
fossil summit
> These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike...
https://aje.news/b79m9v?update=4429081
Iran see Trump’s comments on talks as merely ‘manoeuvring, winning time’ as more US troops deploy
void roost
About 100 American companies are licensed by the U.S. government to operate their own reconnaissance satellites, a $6-7 billion a year industry that serves military and commercial customers with everything from methane detection to bomb damage assessments. Most of the revenue of these companies comes from the military services and the federal government. The “big four” — Maxar Intelligence, Planet Labs, BlackSky Technology, and Spire Global — operate some 350 imaging and interception satellites.
While the Pentagon “guidance” to the commercial companies is framed as an advisory, the companies comply because their contracting relationships with the government make them afraid to bite the hand that feeds them.
shadow vortex
Former US General H R McMaster appears to imply that the US will interdict Chinese fuel ships and that the IDF is bombing Russia-linked ships in the Caspian Sea.
Very strange comment describing a strange tactic.
At 2:30
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf1tvgMgEIw
fossil summit
weak pike
void roost
Lebanon also expels Iranian ambassadors
https://www.threads.com/@yasharali/post/DWQ-h9QlG0Q?
BREAKING
The Lebanese government has declared Mohammad Reza Shibani, the ambassador-designate of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to be persona non grata and is giving him until Sunday to leave Lebanon.
This makes four Arab nations that have expelled Islamic Republic of Iran diplomats in the last week.
Lebanon joins Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
fossil summit
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/24/mattis-trump-iran-strait-hormuz
archive: https://archive.is/x0gbo
fossil summit
near grail
Has anyone seen anything additional about the marines deployed? when do they/did...
Following up on this, the 82nd Airborne is a unit to watch. From March 6th:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/06/army-82nd-airborne-iran/
archived: https://archive.ph/AOsyo
though I'm seeing news that their 'command element' has been ordered to deploy:
https://xcancel.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2036471036477116783
shadow vortex
Another interesting wrinkle in the mediation story. While the Netanyahu government has accepted Qatar as a mediator on many occasions, the opposition has been pushing a "Qatargate" narrative.
https://x.com/yairlapid/status/2036411632708968769?s=20
arctic badger
arctic badger
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-hormuz-open-all-enemy-linked-ships-amid-us-threat-2026-03-22/
Deleted last one, better article
serene walrus
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2036149454642835692?s=20
that is essentially negotiation through intermediary but framed to not actually say that
warm jackal
https://x.com/adammocklerr/status/2035891194153021472
Trump press briefing seemed to be a catastrophe.
X
near grail
https://x.com/adammocklerr/status/2035891194153021472
Trump press briefing seeme...
from two days ago?
tiny path
"Friday's press gaggle" = The interaction with reporters on the 20th.
near grail
just want to check, since there's currently another bonkers press conference:
https://bskye.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhtadzbxlb2c
warm jackal
oh sorry I didn't notice it was that far back already
fossil summit
just want to check, since there's *currently* another bonkers press conference:
...
another massive gold plane, perhaps?
night shuttle
Do you guys find Trump's talks, like these clips or whatever, useful in context of this conflict?
Edit: please post responses that are not emoji reacts in #server-discussion
I don't have any expectations that he's putting out anything reliable or knowledgeable so I haven't paid attention to him vs. open source stuff and normal, non political reporting
fossil summit
should his conferences be kept to the containment zone?
night shuttle
That's why I'm asking. I'm wondering how the community feels
tiny path
That's why I'm asking. I'm wondering how the community feels
Weary
fossil summit
I think it's helpful to keep in mind what he says vs what he does, at least as far as this war is concerned. But the clips could be kept to the containment zone with no loss i think
night shuttle
I get why people would want to know what the head of state of a country at war says but this particular one has nonstop nonsense to say
woeful oar
I think one could argue that it's valid to have here since it does provide somewhat of a pulse on things. Imo it's fairly uncontroversial to say that this isn't going how the administration expected, but videos like the one above would seem to indicate that the line has oscillated from very uncompromising to more of an attempt to find a "deal" of sorts.
shadow vortex
that is essentially negotiation through intermediary but framed to not actually ...
Less negotiations and more like issuing non-negotiable terms is how I would characterize it.
serene walrus
Less negotiations and more like issuing non-negotiable terms is how I would char...
those terms keep changing fwiw
shadow vortex
Pentagon is "suggesting" how satellite firms like Planet Labs (and other recipients of US government funds) should cover the Iran war.
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/leaked-document-iran-war-meets-little
fossil summit
translated:
Iran claims that the US and Israel have attacked the vicinity of the Bushehr nuclear facility
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran assures that the US and Israel attacked the vicinity of the bushehr nuclear facility, according to the news agency IRNA.
night shuttle
I think one could argue that it's valid to have here since it does provide somew...
One could argue, but I'm asking for researcher preferences. For instance, I see a new post and come to look and it's just DC stuff vs new information out of the conflict.
woeful oar
One *could* argue, but I'm asking for researcher preferences. For instance, I se...
With that in mind I believe it would fit best in the other channel. I use this channel to try to keep up with the concrete happenings I can't find on my TV because they're busy reporting on what Trump said.
timid vine
I would also prefer it if Trump things stayed in the Trump containtment area. Nothing he says is useful or actionable.
weary slate
That's why I'm asking. I'm wondering how the community feels
I mentally classify any talks/statements by Trump as disinformation. And yet, I learn it against my will throughout mediums
weary nest
Yeah, I think enough news already comes through the lense of "Trump said xyz" as it is, so it could be beneficial to maintain a space that minimizes this way of framing things
night shuttle
Ok, if anyone wants to comment further please tag me in #server-discussion (I should have planned this better) to keep this channel useful. The mod team is discussing. Thanks friends
waxen rock
Do you guys find Trump's talks, like these clips or whatever, useful in context ...
the overwhelming majority of what he says seems like #1330709161385922650 , but every so often he says something that does seem like a real policy shift
midnight horizon
the overwhelming majority of what he says seems like <#1330709161385922650> , bu...
Hi, can you take this answer to #server-discussion , as indicated by Sarah? Otherwise people will get confused about the instruction from the moderators and keep talking in here.
fossil summit
https://xcancel.com/aa_ahmadian/status/2036502970419105930#m/en
Interesting it’s a brand new account
fossil summit
weak pike
robust raptor
Can't operate from UAE, F35s are restricted from entering the country.
weak pike
Can't operate from UAE, F35s are restricted from entering the country.
Since when is that the case? USAF F-35As have operated out of Al Dhafra Air Base in the recent past. The UAE aren't currently allowed to buy Lightnings, if that's what you mean.
golden granite
Pentagon is "suggesting" how satellite firms like Planet Labs (and other recipie...
Although these documents are interesting they're totally misinterpreted here - this is internal guidance for technical language used by companies that are contracted by the Pentagon to provide sat imagery with analysis.
Not sure how this reporting got to be so wrong, but the internal DoD program that these docs are relevant to (TacSRT) is literally named in the documents. Additionally, the guidance being given isn't censorship, it's just good advice on using technical language for analysis (ie. instead of saying a building was hit, describe the exact damage).
It's heavily implied in the article that this is some level of censorship that's being applied to the press too, and that's absolutely wrong - none of the companies we use or have relationships with provide us with analysis, only images.
woeful oar
Although these documents are interesting they're totally misinterpreted here - t...
Ken does good journalism but he is very biased and I've noticed that he can bend the truth in service of his points.
near grail
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call
Pakistani sources said the US vice-president, JD Vance, was being put forward as a probable chief negotiator from the US side if talks went ahead. Iranian sources have said they would refuse to sit down with Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, or Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who led the nuclear negotiations with Iran before the war.
Officials in Pakistan said the US and Iran could meet for negotiations in Islamabad as early as this week to discuss an end to the war, which began almost a month ago.
...
Sources said Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was the most likely to lead any talks from the Iranian side. However, Ghalibaf has so far dismissed reports of talks between the two sides as “fake news”.Pakistan’s military leadership has been attempting to take a leading role in brokering any peace talks. The White House confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, had a call with Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss the conflict.
Sharif then spoke to the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Monday, where they “agreed on the urgent need for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy”, according to an official read-out.
shadow vortex
Although these documents are interesting they're totally misinterpreted here - t...
So what you are saying is that these are likely guides telling the companies how to phrase things to the Pentagon itself, not necessarily in their public messaging or statements.
golden granite
So what you are saying is that these are likely guides telling the companies how...
Not just likely - they are - the docs name the specific DoD program under which companies provide imagery analysis to the Pentagon.
Additionally, the phrasing requests they’re asking for are to be more specific and accurate in describing damage
And the implication that this is affecting what analysis these companies give the media is incorrect, as these companies never gave analysis to the media to begin with
fossil summit
IRGC announces new wave of attacks on Israel, US bases
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has launched its 80th wave of missiles against Israel and US military bases in the region, according to a statement carried by the Fars news agency.
The IRGC said it targeted a military base in the northern Israeli city of Safad, as well as sites in the cities of Tel Aviv, Kiryat Shmona and Bnei Brak.
It also said it targeted US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain.
timid vine
shadow vortex
And the implication that this is affecting what analysis these companies give th...
That makes a lot of sense. Thanks.
nocturne ermine
I am looking for more detailed maps of Israel's planned buffer zone now and post-war expansion. I have found these two images in news articles, but looking for something more in-depth (if possible) and more regional (again if possible).
waxen rock
I am looking for more detailed maps of Israel's planned buffer zone now and post...
there's a separate thread for lebanon: #1482194986110816350
radiant kiln
azure glade
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-mun...
The errors bars for these estimates must be absurdly high, basically a wargame sim mapped onto reality. How are you supposed to estimate use of JDAMs, HARMS or Mavericks? Virtually none of that will show up in OSINT, so you are basically estimating ordnance usage per estimated number and composition of strike packages at that point.
serene walrus
https://defence-blog.com/fpv-drone-hits-u-s-black-hawk-helicopter-in-iraq/
That base was turned over to the iraqis apparently and thats a medical blackhawk
marsh torrent
https://defence-blog.com/fpv-drone-hits-u-s-black-hawk-helicopter-in-iraq/
I wonder if that’s Kataib Hezbollah again? They had some FPV drone footage of the same part of the airport last week.
balmy trail
rustic pivot
https://www.wired.com/story/iranians-dont-have-a-missile-alert-system-so-volunteers-built-their-own-warning-map/
archived: https://archive.ph/OmPn1
void roost
radiant kiln
The official outlined five specific conditions under which Iran would agree to end the war. These include:
1. A complete halt to "aggression and assassinations" by the enemy.
2. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic.
3. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations.
4. The end of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region
5. Iran's exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is and will remain Iran's natural and legal right, and it constitutes a guarantee for the implementation of the other party's commitments, and must be recognized.The official further noted that these stipulations are in addition to demands previously presented by Tehran during the second round of negotiations in Geneva, which took place just days before the US and Israel carried out a fresh round of aggression on February 28.
balmy trail
> The official outlined five specific conditions under which Iran would agree to...
There’s a long way to go 😅
My guess is this alludes to Qeshm, seems the most logical island to be occupied given the strategic importance of it.
radiant kiln
balmy trail
https://vxtwitter.com/clashreport/status/2036855457420132631
CENTCOM saying it’s ‘fake news’, but idk. Looks legit
X
radiant kiln
CENTCOM saying it’s ‘fake news’, but idk. Looks legit
https://x.com/CENTCOM/sta...
Maybe hit but not shot down?
balmy trail
Maybe hit but not shot down?
Yeah, maybe. The CENTCOM post does say no plane has been shot down, doesn’t deny any hits taking place.
sinful pagoda
https://vxtwitter.com/clashreport/status/2036855457420132631
This should be possible to geolocate if it hasn't been already
radiant kiln
Two more video
https://vxtwitter.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/2036880714772160757
https://vxtwitter.com/clashreport/status/2036893753672093863
balmy trail
fossil summit
https://aje.news/ve6pos?update=4434406
Interesting, I thought this happened yesterday or the day before.
Edit: I guess “preparing to” vs “ordered”
near grail
2500 != 1000
Maybe it's the actual number, but remains to be seen
balmy trail
2500 != 1000
Maybe it's the actual number, but remains to be seen
The article from yesterday says “at least 1000” being prepared and now approx 2500 have been ordered to the AO.
balmy trail
https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/2036842648338579572?s=20
This was posted shortly before the announcement. Makes ya think
near grail
The article from yesterday says “at least 1000” being prepared and now approx 25...
It makes sense, I'm just waiting for more news to report the 2500 from the 82nd since it's just Al Jazeera at this precise number.
I can find "up to 3000" from NPR previously too:
Between 2,000 and 3,000 U.S. Army paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division have received written orders to deploy to the Middle East, according to a U.S. government official who spoke to NPR on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/25/nx-s1-5760675/iran-war-military-deployment
weak pike
Maybe hit but not shot down?
The explosion in the video definitely looks rather small. If the videos are genuine and not AI or similar, I'd take an educated guess that it was a MANPAD, and that the jet therefore survived.
fossil summit
https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/2036842648338579572?s=20
Mace added in another post, “The justifications presented to the American public for the war in Iran were not the same military objectives we were briefed on today in the House Armed Services Committee. This gap is deeply troubling. The longer this war continues, the faster it will lose the support of Congress and the American people.”
X
radiant kiln
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-iran-trump.html?unlo...
It may be a good idea to not just read the title, but take a bit more critical look at the contents of the article.
[Initially my mind filtered out the "said" from the title, and I guess I'm not the only one who has had a false/wrong impression about the strength of claims made in the article]
https://xcancel.com/im_PULSE/status/2036918063031837092
https://xcancel.com/im_PULSE/status/2036919460246814904
fossil summit
It may be a good idea to not just read the title, but take a bit more critical l...
thank you -- looking at earlier reporting, Saudi Arabia definitely seemed more measured https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-has-told-iran-not-attack-it-warns-possible-retaliation-sources-say-2026-03-07/
fossil summit
It may be a good idea to not just read the title, but take a bit more critical l...
It does seem like most of the publishers with this story (other than the Times) are Israeli, now that I search the history for it.
sinful pagoda
FT quotes Western intelligence reports suggesting Russia would be sending drones to Iran
https://www.ft.com/content/d5d7291b-8a53-42cd-b10a-4e02fbcf9047
snow halo
Has anyone been looking into the alleged US fighter pilot shot down or emergency landing over Iran? Last night or early this morning. I searched this thread and the server with no avail. DoD is "looking into it" and claiming it was a malfunction, Iran is claiming responsibility and has video. Haven't found the video or the claim of responsibility and now I can't find the article I read this morning.
prime torrent
Has anyone been looking into the alleged US fighter pilot shot down or emergency...
You mean related to this? Or another incident?
#1473081625775706295 message
snow halo
You mean related to this? Or another incident?
https://discord.com/channels/709...
exactly that. hit all the wrong key words. thank you!
arctic fog
Okay, I know speculation is a no go, but the troops sent to the region wouldn't be enough for an invasion of Iran right? There is about 50,000 currently in the region. Wouldn't this muddy a bit the reports of a possible ground invasion which would demand greater troop numbers?
prime torrent
I read a really good analysis that touched on that question
short answer is: absolutely not enough
Let me find the link
Here https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/
Really good read
Author points out Iraq is smaller than Iran and at one point there were half a million coalition troops there
arctic fog
Author points out Iraq is smaller than Iran and at one point there were half a m...
Thank you, I'll give it a read.
night haven
I read a really good analysis that touched on that question
short answer is: ab...
I think it's also good to keep in mind that even before this war was started Trump couldn't understand why Iran wasn't responding to his threats. After we've been at war he's continued with the threats and I see no reason to believe he has changed his pattern, both in this war and in general, that threats and blustering can produce the outcome he wants. While the only way to know is to wait and see, I wouldn't be surprised if these troop movements were more about bullying/blustering than actual Invasion plans because that just fits his pattern
sinful pagoda
Geolocation of the struck F18 at Chabahar
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3mhwdjrhkjk26
void roost
livid scaffold
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o5dipK6o7Mo
Found this to be a useful overview of the Strait of Hormuz situation.
tiny path
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o5dipK6o7Mo
Found this to be a useful overview of...
Sal's bona fides are well testified by the frequenters of #maritime. His analysis on this is definitely spot on.
shadow vortex
Uganda's army chief says he wants to fight on behalf of Israel (?)
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891223
shadow vortex
Israel took Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf off its hit list after Pakistan requested that Washington not target them, a Pakistani source with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters on Thursday.
"The Israelis had their coordinates and wanted to take them out, we told the U.S. if they are also eliminated then there is no one else to talk to, hence the U.S. asked the Israelis to back off," the source said.
ocean storm
Here https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/
Really good rea...
One caveat, Bret is a historian specializing in ancient times, and while he has great military posts, he also he does great work going into more mundane things of history (for example his series on Sparta, which for the most part was about society, politics and economy rather than military). However, in 2022 his predictions (i.e. UA would have to abandon Kyiv and use protracted war approach) missed the mark.
shadow vortex
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/26/iran-invasion-plans-kharg-island-trump
The Pentagon is developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, according to two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge.
Between the lines: Iran also has a say in how the war ends, and many of the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion.
Zoom in: In interviews with Axios, officials and sources familiar with the internal discussions describe four major "final blow" options Trump could choose from:
Invading or blockading Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub.
Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic outpost hosts Iranian bunkers, attack craft that can blow up cargo ships and radars that monitor movements in the strait.
Seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE.
Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait.
proven tulip
His answers are always "I'll figure it out" or "You'll see soon"
He never had a ...
Here's an answer, which is what it seemed like and what y'all suggested, which is, as this post states, "dumb." "The gamble was this: that the Iranian regime was weak enough that a solid blow, delivered primarily from the air, picking off key leaders, could cause it to collapse. "
night shuttle
Uganda's army chief says he wants to fight on behalf of Israel (?)
https://www.j...
I don't know how seriously I would take Muhoozi. He's always being unhinged on Twitter. His dad is the president and Muhoozi doesn't fear repercussions
shadow vortex
I think the comment points to a rather troubling dimension of Israel's wars, where they get internationalized through sectarian sympathies, not just on the Islamic side but on the Christian side as well. For instance, Uganda's judge on the ICJ voiced similar religious sympathies in a total dereliction of impartiality. Such sentiments can guide policy, but you are right, he does seem rather eccentric.
night shuttle
I'm not speaking to anyone/anything wider than Muhoozi himself. When he breaks containment it needs some clarification is all
sinful pagoda
Per Reuters, the Houthis are showing disposition to join on Iran's side by conducting strikes at the Red Sea https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-ready-join-iran-war-if-needed-raising-new-shipping-risk-2026-03-26/
fossil summit
https://www.ft.com/content/d5d7291b-8a53-42cd-b10a-4e02fbcf9047?syn-25a6b1a6=1
archive: https://archive.is/ZMosx
timid jungle
IDF claims they have killed the commander of the IRGC Navy, Alireza Tangsir.
https://fixupx.com/IDF/status/2037160256896213038
US CENTCOM statement on the death:
https://x.com/centcom/status/2037176259193503775?
X
floral dawn
France confirms oil crisis, says 30-40 percent of Gulf energy infrastructure destroyed
https://www.france24.com/en/france-confirms-oil-crisis-says-30-40-gulf-energy-infrastructure-destroyed
France's Finance Minister Roland Lescure revealed on Wednesday that between 30 and 40 per cent of Gulf refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed by Iran's retaliatory strikes, leaving a shortage of 11 million barrels a day on global oil markets. Lescure warned it could take up to three years to restore damaged facilities, and several months to restart those that were urgently shut down.
serene walrus
Sal's bona fides are well testified by the frequenters of <#920298016123023400>....
Sal is knowledgable enough that if God came down to say something about maritime shipping, I'd still verify with Sal before believing it
carmine hollow
velvet zenith
Opinion piece about the limit of blame for AI for US strategic decisions #1089154093810978866 message
near grail
Citing TankerTrackers data, Iran's export business still seems strong:
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/iran-oil-revenue-soars-hormuz
regal trout
https://www.iranmonitor.org/ a free osint app for monitoring the Iran war
woven epoch
azure glade
Weird choice, tbh. So incredibly easy for Iran to clear these in an uncontested environment.
woven epoch
Mostly likely to just further impede efforts at clearing the missile cities when the entrances get bombed
azure glade
I'd say it's to make them think twice before driving TELs out at night. But any moderately cavalier construction worker with a backhoe and a dumpster could blow up a bunch of these per hour. It's just a 500g EFP.
undone bison
slender idol
And like clockwork, Trump extends the deadline
restive saffron
And like clockwork, Trump extends the deadline
How do you mean like clockwork?
spice crypt
How do you mean like clockwork?
“Like clockwork" describes an action that happens with perfect regularity, precision, and predictability—without problems or delays. It implies something is as reliable and consistent as the mechanism of a clock, often used to describe schedules, routines, or events that go exactly as planned. You’re welcome for googling that for you by the way
tiny path
Positive and constructive discourse, please.
fossil summit
And like clockwork, Trump extends the deadline
There are several troops on the way, seems like Boxer Amphibious Ready Group won’t be there until mid-April. It’s possible he’s trying to buy time (to use another clock idiom).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/war-on-iran-what-troops-is-the-us-moving-to-the-gulf
timid vine
Ships must pay Iran to go through the straights
The process is described in the article. Also reported in der Spiegel according to the article
slender idol
There are several troops on the way, seems like Boxer Amphibious Ready Group won...
There's that, and should of clarified more with my original post; Trump is most likely reacting to the stock market here.
https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-trump-iran-oil-8118f58d75859b9fc74ab133fa9e8c3e
Wall Street has it's worst trading day since the war begins and closes for the day at 4 PM EDT. 11 Minutes later Trump posts that Peace Talks are occuring and he is pushing back the strikes.
fossil summit
There's that, and should of clarified more with my original post; Trump is most...
Oh, yes. I haven’t looked at the charts but it doesn’t seem like the market reacted as much this time. Though I think we’re trying to keep Trump speak to the containment zone #1330709161385922650
serene walrus
https://bsky.app/profile/mobinkarami.bsky.social/post/3mhy6hvbad22i
Anyone know what these images say?
Ditto for this one
sacred birch
https://bsky.app/profile/mobinkarami.bsky.social/post/3mhy6hvbad22i
Anyone know...
https://english.newstrack.com/world-news/hitler-propoganda-posters-spreading-in-iranian-cities-spark-outrage-587824 It doesn't seem to be a real Hitler quote so much as saying "people in WW2 who collaborated with Nazis were bad, if you collaborate with the US/Israel you'll be like them". I don't speak/read Farsi though.
void roost
Recently independent journalist Scott MacFarlane reports what ranking member of house armed services committee said about the Iran War based on intel meeting
“MacFarlane: I’ve got to tell you what the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee told me when I asked him about Iran and how much information key members of Congress are getting.
And pardon the language, but Adam Smith, in a measured tone without raising his voice, said about Iran: it’s a bad fucking idea.
I asked him whether he was more concerned about transparency or the military action itself, and he said, in so many words, that he keeps telling people it’s a terrible idea.”
proud crow
void roost
Another 10k?
BREAKING via WSJ
Trump weighs sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East.
The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options even as he weighs peace talks with Tehran, Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning said.
The force, which would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.
void roost
void roost
Via Israel Channel 13– Chief of staff warns of lack of soldiers for IDF
Viewing time: 02:36
Harsh reactions in the political system tonight (Thursday) following the revelation on Channel 13 about the remarks of Chief of Staff Lt. Col. Eyal Zamir, who warned last night in the cabinet of the collapse of the army due to the shortage of manpower and the burden of the reserves, and said that "in a short time, the IDF will not be ready for its routine missions - and the reserve formation will not last."
timid vine
sinful pagoda
BREAKING via WSJ
Trump weighs sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Midd...
Do we have any open source evidence on the displacement of 5k marines?
Forgive me if I missed anything out, but that information, with variation in the numbers, keeps being mentioned but I don't see anything that backs it beyond statements
timid jungle
Do we have any open source evidence on the displacement of 5k marines?
Forgive...
MT Anderson noted the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) appears to have left Diego Garcia after a brief port call 25 March.
https://fixupx.com/MT_Anderson/status/2036829863806443911
USNI's last 23 March Fleet tracker has the Boxer ARG transiting the Pacific.
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/23/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-march-23-2026
near grail
I think--and someone can correct me if I'm wrong here--is that when headlines arrive at the 5000 number, they're conflating the ~2200 Marines with the USS Tripoli ARG + the 2500 Marines with the USS Boxer ARG which is still in the Pacific
timid jungle
I think--and someone can correct me if I'm wrong here--is that when headlines ar...
That's correct.
near grail
That or conflating logistical services with combat roles
hot sun
I think--and someone can correct me if I'm wrong here--is that when headlines ar...
There's 2500ish marines, 2500 paras and now reports of another 10k marines and paras.
near grail
The force, which would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.
that's not how I'm reading it--the summary says that it would ADD to 5000 Marines
sinful pagoda
I think that a lot of the issue is that numbers get jumbled up because the different statements being picked up. So I would rather be cautious by saying that it's just the 2200 from the USS Tripoli as it's the only one near-ish for what we see
shadow vortex
red basin
missed this a few days ago, happened “the week of March 9”
Each [drone attack] wave forced the Air Force to halt operations and send its personnel to shelters. Barksdale [Air Force Base in Louisiana] is the command hub of the US Air Force Global Strike Command. Not only are B-52s based there, but the base is part of America’s nuclear triad.
…
The drone waves lasted around four hours each day, an extraordinarily long loiter time for a drone. It is not known if the drones were fixed wing or quadcopter types, or how they were powered (liquid fuel or electrical). Each wave consisted of 12 to 15 drones, and the drones flew with their lights on, intentionally making them visible.
…
The airbase does have some electronic countermeasures that were designed to disable GPS and the datalinks between the drones and their remote operators. The electronic countermeasures failed to work.
The drones themselves may have been autonomous or semi-autonomous, and operated in ways suggesting the drones were equipped with multiple sensors that directed the behavior of each drone over the base and in response to attempts at jamming.
https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/sophisticated-drones-attacked-louisianas-barksdale-bomber-base/
(archived https://web.archive.org/web/20260327002213/https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/sophisticated-drones-attacked-louisianas-barksdale-bomber-base/)
fossil summit
X
I cannot in good conscience be part of or witness to what is happening at a time when the UN is preparing for possible nuclear weapon use.
midnight horizon
Claims - note: claims, but something to keep an eye out for - that Kash Patel's email was hacked.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/iran-linked-hackers-claim-breach-of-fbi-directors-personal-email-doj-official-2026-03-27/
This is the opposite of what I wanted people to do. Please check #rules 9.
red basin
missed this a few days ago, happened “the week of March 9”
> Each [drone attack]...
more on recent drone operations against US domestic airbases
One of the drone overflights took place earlier this month at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana … Another was at an unspecified installation last month, the commander of U.S. Northern Command mentioned in recent written testimony for the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC). Both situations took place after the U.S. began bombing Iran in a campaign that has included B-52, B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit bombers. It is unknown at this point if there is a connection, however, as we have frequently reported, the military is highly concerned about drones operating with near impunity over its facilities.
…
The incursions at Barksdale began the week of March 9, a spokesperson for the 2nd Bomber Wing at the base told us, offering few details about what happened …
The incident sparked a shelter-in-place order lifted later that day.
… a confidential briefing document dated March 15 stated that the “drones came in waves and entered and exited the base in a way that may suggest attempts to ‘avoid the operator(s) being located,’” … “Lights on the drones suggested the operators ‘may be testing security responses’ at the base.”
“Between March 9-15, 2026, BAFB Security Forces observed multiple waves of 12-15 drones operating over sensitive areas of the installation, including the flight line, with aircraft displaying non-commercial signal characteristics, long-range control links and resistance to jamming,” … “After reaching multiple points across the installation, the drones dispersed across sensitive locations on the base.”
-# continues…
https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s-battled-drone-incursions-over-key-bases-at-home-after-launch-of-epic-fury
(archived https://web.archive.org/web/20260326002815/https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s-battled-drone-incursions-over-key-bases-at-home-after-launch-of-epic-fury)
-# …continued
Another incident took place at an unspecified location in February as the U.S. was beginning to attack Iran.
“In the early hours of Operation EPIC FURY last month, a deployed [fly-away kit] successfully detected and defeated sUAS operating over a strategic U.S. installation,
…
“We will not name the base nor the type of installation where our Flyaway Kit is deployed in order to preserve operational security,” NORTHCOM added. “Specifically, connecting the Flyway Kit to a specific base can potentially illuminate that base’s vulnerabilities to an adversary. Additionally, by confirming a specific Counter-small Unmanned Aircraft System (C-sUAS) platform, we would potentially give an adversary an advantage in circumventing our C-sUAS capabilities at that location.”
So far, NORTHCOM has only one fly-way kit, but more should be delivered “in the Spring of 2026,”
The kit currently deployed is produced by Anduril. The company describes it as a “rapidly deployable, modular, and battle-tested counter-UAS system designed to detect, track, identify, and defeat Group 1-3 drones.” It uses Anduril’s Pulsar system for radio-frequency detection and electromagnetic effects to jam radio signals controlling drones. There are also drone-on-drone interceptors.
-# (my emphases)
chrome sentinel
Claims - note: __claims__, but something to keep an eye out for - that Kash Pate...
Not just a claim: “A Justice Department official confirmed that Patel's email had been breached and said the material published online appeared authentic.”
midnight horizon
Not just a claim: “A Justice Department official confirmed that Patel's email ha...
Looks like it was updated.
wild compass
will there be a space here for going through the material? or would it be considered illegally obtained and thus not allowed
prime torrent
What we've done in the past is, we'll allow it to be shared here only if the emails are published by a legit news organisation
But if the only live in a Megalink straight from Iran, then no, we can't allow them here
red basin
404 Media, Iran Is Winning the AI Slop Propaganda War #disinfo-and-propaganda message
void roost
What we've done in the past is, we'll allow it to be shared here *only if* the e...
A sample of the material uploaded by the hackers appears to show a mix of personal and work correspondence dating between 2010 and 2019, a copy of his CV, and private photographs taken years before he was appointed by President Trump to lead the bureau.
near grail
BREAKING via WSJ
Trump weighs sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Midd...
Rep. Adam Smith, Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee reading into these figures in a YT video today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWJNIYa5Low&t=1443s
2500 Marines with the USS Tripoli
2500 Marines with the USS Boxer
Assumes the 2000 - 3000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne are already there
I know there's some imprecision on the Marines with the USS Tripoli ARG, but I have a question.
It seems like the closest estimate to the number of Marines with the ARG is ~2200, but with imagery showing that the USS San Diego was still docked in Sasebo, Japan as of March 23rd #maritime message, is ~2200 Marines still an accurate estimate if one fewer ship is headed to the area? Do they all fit on the USS Tripoli?
azure glade
Complement of Tripoli is 1,871 marines
timid jungle
According to dvids, USS Tripoli was still in 7th fleet AoR as of yesterday.
U.S. Navy Sailors with Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 25, load onto an MV-22B Osprey assigned to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 265 (Rein.), 31st MEU, during a safety swimming training exercise aboard the forward-deployed amphibious assault ship **USS Tripoli (LHA 7), in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations, March 26, 2026. ** [Emphasis added]
https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9585738/31st-meu-safety-swimmers-conduct-hoist-exercise
7th fleet AoR covers:
Seventh Fleet’s area of operations spans more than 124-million square kilometers, stretching from the International Date Line to the India/Pakistan border; and from the Kuril Islands in the North to the Antarctic in the South. [Emphasis added]
Wikimedia visualization of 7th Fleet AoR
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Seventh_Fleet#/media/File:USN_Fleets_(2009).png
near grail
Traditionally it doesnt count as a combat loss if they manage to land after a hi...
might be +1 KC-135 today:
https://xcancel.com/TheIntelFrog/status/2037583636573102211
weak pike
Due to the risk of Foreign Object Debris/Damage (FOD), I have doubts that, if an aircraft had been destroyed there, that other KC-135s would be in such close proximity. Taxiing past wreckage is a great way to FOD your engines on remaining airframes.
fossil summit
timid jungle
Joint report on civilian harm by Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRA), Airwars, and Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) on civilian harm one month into the conflict:
Summary: https://airwars.org/civilian-harm-in-iran-after-one-month-of-war/
Full report in pdf format (English)
Full disclosure: I'm a contributor to Airwars, but was not involved in this report.
waxen rock
might be +1 KC-135 today:
https://xcancel.com/TheIntelFrog/status/20375836365731...
the account credited for this is not credible:
https://xcancel.com/stellarman22/status/2026405934537363676#m
near grail
the account credited for this is not credible:
<https://xcancel.com/stellarman22...
Ah, I missed that they used him as a source. It does look like there are other satellite images following up independent of stellarman22
prime torrent
Can someone link the Houthi announcement here when it comes up pls
radiant kiln
<https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/?zoom=16&lat=24.06067&lng=47.56972&them...
the image on the right is SWIR [Short wave infrared composite] layer in copernicus browser, False Color (Urban) is good to show the fire too.
https://xcancel.com/Wolltigerhueter/status/2037614753623749005
serene walrus
Here it is
https://x.com/MMY1444/status/2037630859663028603
so this seems to be less a joining and more a threat to join if things get hotter conflict wise, it seems?
near grail
The Houthis creating even more shipping risks in the Red Sea--in addition to Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz--would split the American ability to reestablish shipping security in both areas.
timid jungle
Interesting Strait of Hormuz development:
On Wednesday, container shipping giant COSCO announced it was resuming bookings to the region.
Overnight, two of its container ships appeared to attempt transiting the strait, only to turn around as they approached Larak Island, which has served as something of a checkpoint for vessels that have negotiated safe passage.
tiny path
Here it is
https://x.com/MMY1444/status/2037630859663028603
The fourth part looks like a set of red lines that would lead to them starting to attack ships in the Red Sea, notably that America shouldn't use the Red Sea for operations in the war. That part feels new compared to the vague threats they've been making for the last month.
woven epoch
cunning ledge
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/27/new-videos-reveal-more-details-about-...
Eyewitnesses described the double tap. The second strike caused most of the casualties.
void roost
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/26/us-iran-mines-israel-village-missile-...
From Washington Post on this
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/03/27/iran-us-land-mines/
void roost
There are multiple videos of damage to the Golestan Palace in Tehran, a 400 year old marvel of architecture, Tehran’s most revered historical site.
The “Marble Throne”, the most photographed piece at the site has been damaged. It was carved out of 65 marble stone pieces, modeled after Solomon’s throne.
—
I am not sure what date the damage occurred the captions and audio are in Persian/Farsi
At beawitness2026 on Instagram.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWYentQjVYE/?
found via https://www.threads.com/@myname.isprince/post/DWZyi05EngP
Instagram
floral dawn
Around 10 service members were wounded, two seriously, according to initial reports.
Multiple refueling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry AWACS command and control plane are among the aircraft damaged, according to preliminary information.
tiny path
midnight horizon
https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/18465
When I'm not in Ukraine, I receive intelligence data online every day. This morning, there was a report that Russian satellites, acting in the interests of Iran, have been surveying US military facilities in the Middle East and the Gulf region.
On March 24, they photographed the American-British Diego Garcia base on the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean. They also surveyed Kuwait International Airport and parts of the oil industry in the Greater Burgan field. On March 25 - Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. On March 26 - the Shaybah oil and gas field (Saudi Arabia), Incirlik Air Base (Turkey), and Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar).
There are no Ukrainian facilities on this list. But who is helping whom by lifting sanctions on an aggressor who is making money every day, providing relevant information about attacks on American, Middle Eastern, British, American-British bases, etc.?
When objects in Ukraine are being surveyed, we always know that they need to be camouflaged, because an operation is being planned to destroy them. Energy and water supply, military facilities, etc. Everyone knows why the repeated survey is being conducted - they are preparing. If the "Russians" are doing this, how can sanctions be lifted?
We need to put pressure on the aggressor. And lifting sanctions is definitely not pressure. It's strange. Sanctions are being lifted, and the aggressor is providing information to target objects, including those of the countries that are talking about lifting sanctions or are already lifting them.
From a conversation with journalists (3/3).
proud crow
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1482194986110816350 ?
Okay, didn't know things had been further subdivded.
near grail
serene walrus
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-preparing-weeks-ground-operat...
"weeks, not months" "2 month timeline"
Gonna put a fat doubt on that one
near grail
Supposed images from Prince Sultan attack aftermath
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/key-e-3-awacs-aircraft-damaged-iranian-attack-saudi-air-base/
https://bsky.app/profile/alert5.com/post/3mi5xwilqss2h
tiny path
Probably worth noting that it looks like three photos of the same plane.
orchid badger
Supposed images from Prince Sultan attack aftermath
https://www.airandspaceforce...
[REG:81-0005 / icao: AE11EE]
Last appearance on the ADS‑B exchange was over Riyadh, Saudi arabia 03 March
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae11ee&lat=24.978&lon=46.019&zoom=7.9&showTrace=2026-03-03
void roost
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-preparing-weeks-ground-operat...
Similar from WaPo https://wapo.st/4dOxH3Z
void roost
More than 3,500 U.S. troops, including the USS Tripoli with about 2,500 Marines, arrived in the Middle East, officials announced Saturday, as strikes in the Iran war intensified.
floral dawn
From the above article ⬆️
J.P. Morgan provided a map of looming oil-shock impacts across key parts of the globe, along with a rough timing of the potential hits.
Disruptions to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz over the past four weeks will unleash a “sequential” shock to global supplies that’ll run from east to west, with much of the world taking a hit in April, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan.
Timing, not just volume, drives the impact, the analysts said, because voyage times “set the clock.” The market is due to see a rolling supply disruption unfolding “sequentially rather than simultaneously” — moving westward, “dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories.”
fossil summit
https://xcancel.com/i/status/2037973814793961559
I’m not familiar enough, but the websites noted don’t seem official? And the post doesn’t say who sent the message
near grail
Not my expertise either, but the source seems to try and give local insight--if messy and speculative at times. Recently they were claiming that Mojtaba had died, so take all claims with a grain of salt.
mamlekate is a community of random volunteer citizen journalists. It covers issues that are censored and not reported by the domestic media in Iran under the Islamic Republic regime. For example, it recorded events of the major protests in Iran in 2017, 2019, and 2022.
void roost
Video of Gerald Ford in Split from person who can see it from balcony. https://www.threads.com/@jasonrochefort/post/DWdcp5cCjj6?
tiny path
This would still be doxxing, BTW.
near grail
nuke it
I will not be surprised to hear about units deployed from either San Diego or Las Vegas bases
void roost
serene walrus
470 Missiles, With Rate Rising: First 25 Days of the War With Iran - National Security & Cyber https://share.google/qP9TD166r9F6jGllN
Anyone have a non paywall version of this?
I want to compare it against this source just to make sure since it seems suspect:
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/israel-confirm-iranian-missile-80pct-success
radiant kiln
The damage for this strike https://xcancel.com/ETERNALPHYSICS/status/2038342162039873992
is visible on Sentinel-2 between 2026-03-14 and 2026-03-29 at [25.90259, 50.59107]
Apparently there has been an earlier strike there, with less damage: https://xcancel.com/EGYOSINT/status/2036317631385374872
[PS: I'm not familiar with either of these two X accounts]
tiny path
470 Missiles, With Rate Rising: First 25 Days of the War With Iran - National Se...
It's not a very long article, I was able to see the rest of it:
Iran has launched 470 missiles at Israel in the first 25 days of the conflict, with an initial surge followed by a steady daily rate that has recently ticked up. The IDF reports nine direct hits, including two in Tel Aviv, and 35 cluster missiles breaching air defenses, affecting more than 190 urban areas
In the first 25 days of the war, Iran has fired 470 missiles on Israel. After the first three days in which 170 missiles were fired, the daily number of missiles dropped, stabilizing at 10-15 missiles per day. Last weekend the rate of fire rose slightly, with twenty missiles fired on Tuesday.
novel sail
The damage for this strike https://xcancel.com/ETERNALPHYSICS/status/20383421620...
Where is the P-8?
radiant kiln
Where is the P-8?
I do not have a reason to believe that P-8 were damaged/destroyed.
novel sail
Plane is not a P-8, its a prop plane, something like a C-295.
radiant kiln
The claim is likely a disinfo developed based on the imagery related to the previous strikes on one of those hangars, with white planes [which are not P-8] parked near the hangar on the "before" image.
EDIT: P-8 have two engines, those white planes have 4, I think
novel sail
The claim is likely a disinfo developed based on the imagery related to the prev...
Those looks like Bae-146, and Bahrain has a couple of those
regal trout
torpid quarry
void roost
Looming oil crisis due to closure of strait. I spot checked a few on the list to confirm. https://xcancel.com/academic_la/status/2038063828978831483#m
floral dawn
soft moth
The claim is likely a disinfo developed based on the imagery related to the prev...
Agree, I would take any iranian/irgc sourced images or their affiliated/proxy propaganda channels with a grain of salt. They’ve been actively peddling disinfo to justify their attacks on their neighbours or attempt to show the upper hand. Unfortunately alot of osint accounts eat it up. They have been recycling alot of images or showing images from different locations. As always verification is key.
I’m currently working on research about this which I hope to publish in the coming weeks.
radiant kiln
The images in those two posts are real, the later one is confirmed through Sentinel-2 imagery.
Text in such posts usually should be ignored [or debunked], if the imagery is not confirmed and does not support the text.
Many [not all] of the Iranian attacks are targeting equipment / military infra used by US/Israel to enable attacks on Iran or to defend US forces based in Gulf countries.
serene walrus
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603261604
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603297166
Seems like there's some reporting of the Basij using children for their forces
soft moth
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-worker-killed-iranian-attack-kuwait-p...
Missed that this was posted, deleted the duplicate link. I believe this follows the previous attack on a Desalination plant in Bahrain. Didn’t see that one posted. It was on the 8th of March 2026
https://www.france24.com/en/bahrain-says-iranian-drone-attack-damages-water-desalination-plant
fossil summit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-29/tehran-briefly-loses-power-after-strikes-as-peace-push-ramps-up
archive: https://archive.is/kjj1A
proud crow
waxen rock
rustic pivot
Take from NPR Editor/Correspondent on the Bulletin analysis above
https://tbsky.app/profile/gbrumfiel.bsky.social/post/3mibqopxflk2c
rustic pivot
https://thebulletin.org/2026/03/analysis-iran-likely-transferred-highly-enriched...
Short thread from Cheryl Rofer, the retired nuclear scientist on same analysis
https://tbsky.app/profile/cherylrofer.bsky.social/post/3mia6ocbpwc2w
shadow vortex
https://thebulletin.org/2026/03/analysis-iran-likely-transferred-highly-enriched...
Very difficult to parse the Iran-IAEA relationship, and the IAEA-West relationship.
ashen dome
whats the situation re: kharg island rn
near grail
whats the situation re: kharg island rn
https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1
archive: https://archive.ph/kduXw
Same as it has been for awhile; just positioning and talking.
ashen dome
https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1
a...
when do the Marines arrive into the region ? iirc they should be arriving like right around now
near grail
when do the Marines arrive into the region ? iirc they should be arriving like r...
The 31st MEU arrived on Friday:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/03/28/uss-tripoli-embarked-31st-marine-expeditionary-unit-arrive-in-middle-east/
ashen dome
and the rest? (airborne divisions etc)
near grail
USS Boxer is still in the Pacific, saw pictures of them docked at Pearl Harbor yesterday, so like ~2-3 weeks out at least
82nd Airborne - there's flight tracking showing movement from Ft Bragg to Germany this weekend, past that I don't know.
citation on USS Boxer location & map of AOR #1473081625775706295 message:
https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9588948/boxer-conducts-flight-operations
Several hundred U.S. Special Operations forces have arrived in the Middle East, joining thousands of Marines and Army paratroopers in a deployment meant to give President Trump additional options to expand the monthlong war with Iran, two U.S. military officials said on Sunday.
The commandos, including Army Rangers and Navy SEALs, have not yet been assigned specific missions, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
These have not been included in previous counts, AFAIK
novel sail
Interesting take on the options available to the US https://xcancel.com/chriso_wiki/status/2038570508128506149?s=46
soft moth
There’s multiple reports that attacks are being staged from Iraqi territories from militias to neighbouring countries, it will be good to pay attention and verify media once the US escalates its campaign
near grail
There’s multiple reports that attacks are being staged from Iraqi territories fr...
just to note, this border conflict is exactly what Iraqis warned about earlier in the month:
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/09/nx-s1-5741754/iraqi-kurds-rush-to-quash-reports-of-kurds-leading-uprising-in-iran
void roost
Erik Prince advises against Iran war. (Also notes “these are not Arabs, they are Aryans”).
Video: https://www.threads.com/@echoesofstreet/post/DWhBmoWCvVX?
carmine flame
(I was in the wrong Israel channel, apologies, moved post to #1482194986110816350)
ashen dome
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/28/gulf-countries-threat-iran-backed-...
one consequence of this war is that the Iranian regime will come out emboldened, more hardline & much more aggressive, unfortunately..
near grail
one consequence of this war is that the Iranian regime will come out emboldened,...
you are new, please read this 🙂
#1473081625775706295 message
waxen rock
whats the situation re: kharg island rn
the idea that the troops sent will be used to take kharg is still very speculative.
ashen dome
the idea that the troops sent will be used to take kharg is still very speculati...
hence my question
tiny path
hence my question
Hi, me again. You're new here, and I suggest closely reading the posts in https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/710991734246473809 and https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/924344679812726797. You're asking a question that cannot be answered with open source information, hence the pushback.
velvet zenith
timid slate
Sorry if this is a speculative question but is there any proof for President Trump’s recent claims that regime change has happened.
near grail
Sorry if this is a speculative question but is there any proof for President Tru...
I think Trump ramblings detached from reality are better in https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1330709161385922650
novel sail
One can note that "Seize its oil" would mean that the US would have to take control over the assets in hand-to-hand combat since you cannot bomb what you want to take intact. And the casualties from doing that would make the comparison to Iwo Jima even more fitting.
timid slate
I think Trump ramblings detached from reality are better in https://discord.com/...
Fair, I will keep that in mind
radiant kiln
https://xcancel.com/obretix/status/2038672516839850392
[26.997083, 47.031781] for the rotated Y intersection of lights
From the subquoted CENTCOM acc:
A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress is refueled during a combat flight supporting Operation Epic Fury, March 26.
timid vine
Erik Prince advises against Iran war. (Also notes “these are not Arabs, they are...
What does he mean by that?
void roost
What does he mean by that?
I presume he is revealing supremacist attitudes.
If you listen to the video he describes how Iranians differ from Iraqis in his opinion
undone bison
Iran, Land der Arier
timid vine
If you listen to the video he describes how Iranians differ from Iraqis in his o...
I see. So the Aryans are the Iranians and the Arabs are the Iraqis?
timid vine
Iran, Land der Arier
Is that a thing? Never heard of it before
azure glade
Iran and Aryan are basically the same word, it's not a weird white supremacists thing (until you make a big deal of it)
keen spear
I don't want to distract from the topic but that's not making a big deal of what he says, considering
https://theintercept.com/2024/02/10/erik-prince-off-leash-imperialism-colonialism/
waxen rock
Iran and Aryan are basically the same word, it's not a weird white supremacists ...
the idea that persians are related to ancient aryans is not a weird white supremacist thing. the idea that that's significant is
velvet zenith
Wikipedia lists them as the same word but that there was the additional pseudoscience usage as well, so yes, that is the correct word, but also yes it was appropriated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aryan_(disambiguation)
floral dawn
tranquil terrace
long article about how the CIA turned over a bunch of Iranian nuclear scientists. Not sure if it belongs here though
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/04/06/he-helped-stop-iran-from-getting-the-bomb
sinful pagoda
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy368j1e3lo
Technically it was closed all the way back to when Spain announced they would not allow the US to use their bases for Iran, according to the Spanish MoD
Of course this can be verified by checking if any US plane headed to operate in Iran flew through Spanish airspace with flightracking tools
viral storm
I presume he is revealing supremacist attitudes.
So I've previously done a dive on this due to being Iranian-American (and Arab-American) and having to deal with weird racist tropes in the American South when growing up. Short-short version:
Max Muller (see the links below) was a 19th century German scholar who studied languages of Central and South Asia (Indo-Iranian/Indo-Aryan). Linguistically, there's a lot of nuance here as "Indo-Aryan" language hews closer to Sanskrit while "Indo-Iranian" (or "Indo-Iranic") is the language of the Iranian (self-named Aryan) people. Aryan itself isn't actually the sum total ethnicity of that group as the prior kingdoms and eventual Achaemenid Empire were built from a large number of ethnic groups who all eventually encompassed the ethnonym.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Müller
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_peoples
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achaemenid_Empire#History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aryan
Muller was a far from perfect individual (see his opinions on Islam and India), and certainly a man of his times, but his initial classification of Aryan was built from the linguistic and cultural premise rather than from a genetic one. However, Vacher de Lapouge and similar writers took this in a Darwinist trajectory until eventually we get the "popularization" [sic] of it via the Nazis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Müller#Opposition_to_Aryanism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aryanism
When Prince, those within the Christian Nationalist, and other Ethnosupremacist groups talk about Arabs (semitic peoples alongside Jews) vs. Iranians (Aryan), they're bringing up antisemitic and racist concepts built off of centuries of bad science that conflated the [erroneous] concept of a "Caucasian race" with superiority over others.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasian_race
In these Ethnosupremacist groups, which can also include some Iranians who followed propagandized versions of history via the 20th century/Pahlavi revival of ancient Iranian cultural tropes (which is a deep dive unto itself), the goal is to 1) create a line between "allowed races" and "degenerate races" and 2) assure that conflict is managed in such a way that the "allowed races" are the ones supported.
Anytime someone conflates modern Iran with Aryan with a false sense of superiority, it's from this original track of thinking. However, by virtue of how hate groups evolve, the original track is far from the full path and subdivisions have spawned a toxic rainbow of beliefs that can claim anything from "Europeans are the true Aryans and Iranians are just sub-racial stock" to "Europeans and Aryans share the same path."
There's a lot more there, but that (long) statement is as short as you can get for a general mapping of the concept's evolution.
void roost
So I've previously done a dive on this due to being Iranian-American (and Arab-A...
Thank you! I found this helpful.
woven epoch
radiant kiln
The sat imagery from the same date in google earth pro is of much higher resolution for the nearby town 8 km away [29.321989, 47.579438].
That part of the Ali Al Salem Air Base is at [29.366130, 47.513014].
timid jungle
Two new vessel attacks, one hit :
https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2038734163688181923/
https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/2038629976870641682/
It had been 9 days since the last report of a vessel being targeted.
weak pike
orchid badger
serene walrus
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603283207
This, too, is a war crime if this is accurate
void roost
white hull
https://x.com/mhdksafa/status/2037475557999280433
Going back a few days because I’ve been looking into this after seeing it around, but this Safa guy appears to be a complete and utter nobody. “Special consultative status with the economic and social council of the UN” is a title held by 5,500 different organisations(1). PVA is a charity that apparently does some sort of work although its exact nature is unclear, notably PVA was founded by Mr Safa(2)
1: https://esango.un.org/civilsociety/displayConsultativeStatusSearch.do?method=search&sessionCheck=false
2: www.pva-lb.org
The idea that Mr Safa has any special knowledge strains credulity to the maximum. He is the representative of a charity to a UN council with more members than there are online users of this discord. He does not have any special knowledge, he is a guy posting on social media.
I’ve seen stuff relating to him spammed all over the place and I want to apologise if it looks like I’m specifically taking issue with you personally, because I’m not. But this is all being presented as something far more meaningful than it is. It is in real terms indistinguishable from the infamous Louise Mensch tweet about how she had secret sources telling her Steve Bannon was due to be executed, however Mensch at least had actually been an elected politician.
If nuclear weapons are being considered for usage, I would rate it as highly unlikely that Israel and America would be briefing this knowledge to the Economic and Social Council. I get why people are falling for this, because he looks official at first glance. He really has spoken at the UN*, the org he works for is real. But a bluecheck and a letterhead does not make someone a credible authority here.
fading elm
And you are rating it as highly unlikely based on your own vibes and opinions as a random person on social media
radiant kiln
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603283207
This, too, is a war crime if this is ac...
There is a difference between military, paramilitary, police etc.
Authors/editors of this article has chosen to use as a cover an image with police for an article with a title "Iran's military uses schools ...".
In the article they are calling police being stationed somewhere as "military deployment".
At least three mosques were identified in eyewitness accounts as having been used for military deployments. In the capital, Tehran, this included Rezvan Mosque on March 8 and Chahardeh Masoum Mosque in University Town on March 7, where special police units were stationed.
This is a propaganda article which tries to implicitly justify targeting of civilians [police], and for stripping protected civilian objects of the special protection where police is stationed in them / near them.
[I think it is very likely that the Iranian army, IRGC forces, Basij forces, other security forces, police forces have been stationed at different times at/near different protected civilian areas,
but that is not a sufficient reason for protected civilian objects to lose their protected status if I remember correctly from reading on the topic.
Consider how accepting such a framework would affect the legality of targeting civilian objects in US or Israel, or targeting police / military when they are near or in schools / hospitals / etc]
woeful oar
Yeah it seems a bit sketchy with the claims it's making and the evidence it brings for them.
white hull
And you are rating it as highly unlikely based on your own vibes and opinions as...
No, I’m basing it on the very clear fact that he is the representative of his own organisation to a body with thousands of members, which meets once a year for a few weeks to give speeches. He is not a diplomat. He is not an expert in anything at all related to the war.
Note how if you attempt to look into him, as I did a while back before this, you can find nothing about him. Absolutely nothing. He has no public impact whatsoever.
Yet he apparently has access to the story of the century: that nuclear weapons are going to be dropped on Iran. He is the man that has broken this story and no one else. Why? How does he gain access to this top secret knowledge?
fading elm
No, I’m basing it on the very clear fact that he is the representative of his ow...
Im just saying this has little or nothing to do with OSINT and reads like your own personal opinions on credentialism and doesn’t address any of the underlying claims. Such as how it is likely just a misinterpretation or disagreement with proliferation preparedness discussions and meetings at the UN. Which have been ongoing https://press.un.org/en/2026/sc16318.doc.htm
white hull
Im just saying this has little or nothing to do with OSINT and reads like your o...
He does not participate in proliferation preparedness meetings. He is not an expert in nuclear proliferation, and if he could attend the linked meeting he would have done so in a manner which is achievable to literally thousands of people just from his specific background alone.
The relevance to OSINT is to point out that a rather sensational claim is being spread by an individual with very little real credibility. That sounds like an insult but it is a statement of fact, not a judgement of character. He has no credibility because he is no one. A journalist with a record of breaking significant stories has credibility. He is not one. Given the amount of attraction that “UN employee resigns and reveals that UN is preparing for nuclear weapons use!” is getting online, it’s worth noting that fact to be aware of potential issues.
near grail
Two new vessel attacks, one hit :
https://fixupx.com/UK_MTO/status/20387341636...
need to remember, it's 'fixupx' + /en at the end
https://fixupx.com/kuna_ar/status/2038750907957998035/en
serene walrus
There is a difference between military, paramilitary, police etc.
Authors/editor...
are the Basij considered civilian police or more akin to active combatants? I've seen footage of them firing at civilians even during this conflict and admittedly the structure of the IRGC's units is weird (probably intentionally so?)
Also to be fair to Iran International they do state this, which I think is somewhat counter to a narrative that they want to blow up schools:
Under international humanitarian law, civilian sites can lose protected status if used for military purposes, though attacking forces must still comply with rules on distinction, proportionality and precaution.
The source said the legal implications vary depending on the type of site but warned that such practices can strip civilian locations of their protected status.
“Schools are civilian objects; using them as barracks, firing positions, detention sites, or weapons depots can make them lawful military targets, while still leaving the attacker bound by distinction, proportionality, and feasible precautions,” the source said, adding that this “amounts to human shielding.”```interception & destruction of 8 ballistic missiles within a few minutes (multiple tweets)
https://fixupx.com/modgovksa/status/2038750460492783809/en
radiant kiln
are the Basij considered civilian police or more akin to active combatants? I've...
In relation to Basij - consider US National Guard [Militia] units / members and at/near which protected civilian objects in US they can be stationed, and which activities of these units would make those civilian objects lose those protections.
And/or see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gendarmerie, Israeli Border Police, ...
[I think this thread of discussion borders on being an expression of opinion, so I'll end at this point]
hot sun
are the Basij considered civilian police or more akin to active combatants? I've...
Police do often shoot at civilians in many countries. America being one.
serene walrus
Police do often shoot at civilians in many countries. America being one.
I think the irgc is structured differently than municipal Police forces in the United States but also i don't think there would be comparatively strong outcry if Iran managed to shahed strike an NYPD office or like Raytheon's C suite
hot sun
I think the irgc is structured differently than municipal Police forces in the U...
America has federal agencies which have also been known to shoot at civilians on occasion.
This is a well known tactic to justify attacks on civilians that we have seen deployed throughout the wars in the middle east. Strikes against civilian targets have to be absolutely military necessary. They have to pose an imminent serious risk. Bombing an NYPD station would absolutely be a war crime.
timid jungle
▶️ Let's refocus on the #1473081625775706295 conflict.
Link to 28 Mach sentinel imagery of the wreck of the MAYUREE NAREE, which ran aground on Iran's Qeshm Island after being targeted on 11 March and has been drifting since. (Credit for spot to Tanker Trackers)
https://fixupx.com/TankerTrackers/status/2038187828530569557
https://link.dataspace.copernicus.eu/ay5i
Today, multiple Thai news sources reported on a statement released by Precious Shipping, the vessel's owners. A search and rescue team was contracted and granted access to the vessel by Iranian authorities. The search was unable to find three seafarers who have been missing and believed trapped in the engine room.
The Royal Oman Navy rescued twenty crew members when the incident happened.
Cordinates for the wreck are: 26.89151, 56.16153
near grail
Probably worth noting that it looks like three photos of the same plane.
relevant observation, since it has been confirmed that two E-3 aircraft were damaged:
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/30/nx-s1-5765967/trump-iran-israel-lebanon-kharg-island-oil
NPR has confirmed more than a dozen U.S. service members were wounded and two E-3 Sentry aircraft were damaged in an Iranian strike on an air base in Saudi Arabia on Friday.
viral storm
https://www.twz.com/news-features/dozens-of-a-10-warthogs-appear-poised-to-join-...
There's a huge mystique and myth in long retired military personnel and out of touch hobbyist circles surrounding the A10 and its use in air to ground operations. Up to date strategists have made it very clear that the platform is not suitable given modern air defense systems, even with all known upgrades. Their use in Afghanistan and Iraq was only even functionally viable due to the complete breakdown of the respective fighting forces in terms of national defense, however Iran's forces are far from that position.
The fact they're pulling A10s out of storage is notable mostly in terms of speaking to who is running the war rather than for their actual function in the war.
near grail
re: coordination between Iran & Yemen-based Houthis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/iran-presses-houthis-on-red-sea-shipping-european-officials-say
archive: https://archive.ph/jQGyn
Still, the longer the US-Israeli war against Iran goes on, the more likely the Houthis are to target the Red Sea, the people added. They said it was possible the Islamist group could delay a decision as a way of retaining leverage against the US.
...
Even as they face pressure from Iran, the Houthis would need to justify entering the war at a time when the economy in areas they control is in very bad shape. Around half of Yemen’s is suffering from acute hunger, according to the United Nations.
An extreme faction wants to carry out more expansive attacks while other, more moderate, figures have resisted such a strategy.
The decision to target Israel this weekend represented a compromise between divided factions, the officials said. The Israeli government hasn’t reported any casualties from the Houthis’ missiles fired since the weekend.
radiant kiln
There's a huge mystique and myth in long retired military personnel and out of t...
Can A10 be reasonably used as an anti-drone [Shahed] platform? [Can it be adapted with a software upgrade?]
[I've been considering specifically the use of it's gun]
azure glade
There's a huge mystique and myth in long retired military personnel and out of t...
Iran's air defenses are heavily attrited, given how we have fighters going on strafing runs near the coast. Insofar as any aircraft is suitable for use in areas with MANPADs around, the A-10 is. It is also perfect for loitering around the coastline and plinking small boats with Mavericks. Ideal platform for the job.
@radiant kiln I'm not sure if the A-10 has been upgraded to use APKWS, but if so, its low speed would make it perfect for the job. Even the gun could be useful, given the high ammo load compared to fighters.
viral storm
Iran's air defenses are heavily attrited, given how we have fighters going on st...
I deliberately avoided speculation on specifics due to rules in the channel, but suffice it to say, again, it speaks almost entirely to who is running the show rather than whether they can find a suitable use case somewhere in the conflict.
azure glade
If you asked for a platform to hunt drones, drone boats, and speedboats in lightly contested airspace, anyone would choose the A-10.
viral storm
I know that they've been upgraded enough to work with some level of fuel pods, which would be necessary for loitering work, but I have no urge to speculate on whether that would be a sufficient use-case for sea/coastal defense of naval, base, or allied economic assets given their design vs. other options (e.g. standard AA systems).
tiny path
If you asked for a platform to hunt drones, drone boats, and speedboats in light...
Note that not everyone in this channel has the depth of knowledge behind this statement. It would be helpful to share sources so those who want to learn more can do so.
fossil summit
Archive: #1330709161385922650 message
weak pike
There's a huge mystique and myth in long retired military personnel and out of t...
That's a very binary of looking at the A-10C. As with almost all military equipment, there's a correct time and place. You're correct that the A-10C isn't realistically survivable against a half-decent IADS, but one could argue that few non-stealth aircraft are without stand-off weapons. The jet is, however, is probably the best one for low level operations in a notable MANPAD environment, which is what the Iranians have left around their coastal areas. The Hogs will be used to defend against boat swarms, interdict UASs with APKWS and, if necessary, carry out CAS in support of US ground troops if an attack on Kharg or one of the other islands is authorised.
While the ideal way to deal with a MANPAD threat is to fly above it, like the F-35 and Stormbreaker combo, if one is trying to support ground forces in danger close situations, then that's easier said than done. Hog crews concentrate fully on CAS and similar missions to they're highly specialised at it. The jet's engine placement means its less vulnerable to MANPADs and other AAA, as well as being less vulnerable to FOD if they have to use a damaged airbase. Plus these jets are in the twilight of their career; if the USAF loses some, as long as the pilot survives, then it's not all that much of a big deal. And you won't find many aircraft that have a more durable cockpit that the A-10C.
It's also worth noting that the Hog could be used as a bomb truck and decoy carrier, but whether they're being used as that in the Middle East currently, I don't know.
viral storm
In the links I've been looking through, I've yet to see any notable information on loitering time in significantly differing environments. Do you happen to have a good pointer towards overland time vs. over sea time (I'm vaguely aware that fuel consumption here is highly variable, but that's the limit of my understanding).
What I should really specify is, given Iranian drone waves (or at least from Russia's recent use of Shaheds/Shahed clones), the ability to use it in air to sea/air to air in contested environments seems like a major logistics factor that has to be considered when introducing them as CAS outside of specific air to ground operations. If Shahed or Iranian sea drone wave times are incompatible with refueling logistics, then using them in theater seems like a political factor rather than a strategic one.
weak pike
In the links I've been looking through, I've yet to see any notable information ...
This is from Wikipedia so take it with a grain of salt :
"Combat range: 250 nmi (288 mi, 463 km)
CAS mission: 250 nmi (290 mi; 460 km) representing a 1 hour 53 minute of loiter time at 5,000 ft (1,500 m), and 10 minutes of combat.
Anti-armor mission: 252 nmi (290 mi; 467 km) with sea-level penetration and exit, 30 min combat"
It's also worth noting that A-10Cs in the 2026 Iran War have been observed carrying external fuel tanks, and relatively light loadouts, so endurance is definitely being prioritised (as seen in the CENTCOM videos and images).
viral storm
Hilariously, I managed to read through that and still didn't really intuit the information in that context. Thank you!
near grail
I'm asking Claude to translate this to civilian English 
near grail
void roost
U.S. official has CONFIRMED that the heavy explosions reported in Isfahan tonight were the result of 2,000 pound bunker buster munitions hitting an Iranian military ammunition storage site.
near grail
rich pond
So I've previously done a dive on this due to being Iranian-American (and Arab-A...
Just to add a reading suggestion for those interested in how Aryan as a nazi master race came about and Nazi pseudoscience in general this is a great book: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/heather-pringle/the-master-plan/9780786887736/?lens=grand-central-publishing
soft moth
Interesting research from 2021 titled PsyOps Of Non-State Armed Actors In The Middle East which I found helpful in understanding the misinformation surrounding this war.
Interesting elements including Decentralized Media Warfare, Global Jihadi communities and the importance of using a modified SCAME Framework named SCAME+ to analyze and counter propaganda. The analysis of previous events in the Middle East was the enlightening part for me. It helps anyone researching and reporting Middle East events. Skip to page 47 for that part.
To me X is a practical prime example of this in play, I'm working on mapping various accounts, hopefully I can share it when i'm done
https://is.muni.cz/th/yrw3h/PsyOps_of_Nonstate_Armed_Actors_in_the_Middle_East.pdf
novel sail
Using xcancel makes it possible to read an entire thread w/o logging on to x, for ex https://xcancel.com/i/status/2038690159672144028
orchid badger
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3miczr6rewc2j
https://www....
orchid badger
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2038913823818830127
https://radar.rp.pl/przemysl-obronny/art44065601-usa-chca-pomocy-polski-na-bliskim-wschodzie
FixupX
https://roma.corriere.it/notizie/politica/26_marzo_31/italia-nega-usa-sigonella-crosetto-86a05dff-9ac6-46cf-b07b-f69fe19c1xlk.shtml
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2038900788227866717
orchid badger
azure glade
If they get to the point of B-52s dropping JDAMs, the level of destruction will potentially be dialed up drastically.
void roost
Analysis of the language used by Hegseth and Caine in today’s briefing compared to past briefings. Interesting https://www.threads.com/@rebcam2000/post/DWjrNqpFLvA
thread: Hegseth held a briefing today; his first since 3/19. Each time, I have analyzed the content to compare the use of factual, borderline, rhetorical, or non-literal/figurative claims.
Today’s briefing has the highest rhetorical percentage in the dataset. It also has two notable absences. 🧵
Post 2 of 10: Rhetorical claims (opinion, characterization, things that can’t be fact-checked) hit 43% today, the highest figure across five briefings. In raw terms, there were 41 rhetorical sentences, which is more than factual and borderline combined.
Factual claims recovered slightly to 26%, up from the 20% floor of the previous three briefings.
fossil summit
near grail
In here rather than https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1482194986110816350 due to what I read are clear and direct ties to Iran/IRGC
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-kataib-hezbollah
orchid badger
balmy trail
In here rather than https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/148219498611...
Yes worth noting the distinction between Hezbollah and Kata’ib Hezbollah, share a similar name but not linked in the way you might be thinking
tiny path
Can you clarify that?
orchid badger
https://xcancel.com/alexplitsas/status/2039036851046990259
https://xcancel.com/m...
balmy trail
Can you clarify that?
Yeah sorry I just mean people often see the word Hezbollah and think it’s the same group operating in Lebanon and it’s very much not the same leadership or organisation
near grail
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/irans-hezbollah-franchise-iraq-lessons-lebanons-shiite-militias
Hezbollah in Lebanon being older, more based in resistance, while Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq being newer, closely intertwined with Iranian Quds Force leadership to project Iran interests inside Iraq
orchid badger
orchid badger
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2039080777812517379
There's conflicting reports, here's the statement from the Iraqi Interior Ministry
The Interior Ministry announced on Tuesday the arrest of a suspect in the kidnapping of a foreign journalist in Baghdad, and reiterated that it will not allow any attempt to undermine security or target foreign guests.
The ministry said in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that “this evening a foreign journalist was abducted by unknown assailants. Security forces immediately began pursuing the perpetrators based on precise intelligence, intensive field work and tracking of the kidnappers’ route.”
“Follow-up and pursuit operations resulted in the besiegement of a vehicle belonging to the kidnappers, which overturned while they attempted to flee,” the statement added. “Security forces managed to arrest one of the suspects and seize one of the vehicles used in the crime.”
https://ina.iq/ar/security/259547-.html
void roost
At least 348 U.S. troops have been wounded in the war with Iran.
Of those wounded, 315 have been listed as “returned to duty.” In some cases, that designation reflects a change in medical status, no longer requiring in-patient care, rather than a full recovery and some troops may still be dealing with significant injuries.
golden granite
https://bsky.app/profile/godin.bsky.social/post/3micdxa7aak2q
Camp Patriot/Mohammed Al-Ahmad Naval Base, Camp Arifjan, and Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base are now blurred too. Camp Buehring, Shuiba Port, and Al Mubarak Air Base are still unblurred though
orchid badger
void roost
President Trump will give an Address to the Nation to provide an important update on Iran. 9p ET. Source @kaitlancollins
Correction — tomorrow
timid jungle
31 March Maritime Incident
Tanker hit north of Doha, hull damaged, crew reported safe.
timid jungle
US. CENTCOM pushes back against media reports resulted in civilian harm:
BBC Verify report on the incident
https://fixupx.com/Shayan86/status/2038165897798447463/en
Thread by Bellingcat's @woven epoch in response to CENTCOM's statement:
https://fixupx.com/easybakeovensz/status/2039142554785005763?/en
woven epoch
## US. CENTCOM pushes back against media reports resulted in civilian harm:
h...
Just to elaborate on what I did here. I estimated the length using the diameter of both the Hoveyzeh (which CENTCOM claims) and the PrSM (which BBC and NYT reported). Both diameters give 11 or 13 feet, which is within the margin of error for the PrSM (13 feet), but much shorter than the Hoveyzeh of 23 feet (which CENTCOM claims). This is in addition to it not being visually consistent with the Hoveyzeh, which have wings and a external bottom mounted engine.
Sources:
Measurements:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/soumar/
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/04/new-prsms-variants-could-be-a-game-changer-for-the-u-s-marine-corps-himars/
Bellingcat Kyiv Children Hospital strike. This missile was a Kh-101, but the dimensions and appearance are simialr to the Hoveyzeh
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2024/07/09/russian-missile-identified-in-kyiv-childrens-hospital-attack/
timid jungle
/mod hat off ☝️ For those new to OSINT, that right there, is worth taking notes on
orchid badger
fossil summit
U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight
Gulf state begins effort to persuade U.S. and others to open waterway by any means necessary
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/uae-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-9836ecbb
(attempting to grab archive)
fossil summit
archive: https://archive.is/HS2MR
void roost
Nevada Air National Guard (High Rollers) deploy for Epic Fury
https://www.kolotv.com/2026/04/01/nevada-airmen-deployed-part-operation-epic-fury/?outputType=amp
The Reno-based wing, known as the “High Rollers,” generally work rapid global mobility airlift, fire suppression, and expeditionary mission support.
orchid badger
tiny path
Just a reminder that you can also post the direct links to stories.
orchid badger
orchid badger
orchid badger
"Israel Prepares for Collapse of Talks: 'If That Happens — We'll Strike Energy Facilities, That Hurts Iranians the Most'"
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2039027760006369571/en
X
radiant kiln
https://x.com/i/status/2039183589259288898
orchid bone
https://xcancel.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2039206163527458865
Cannot verify elsewhere. April fools?
radiant kiln
This morning, I’ll be giving an update on how we are supporting you with the cost of living through the conflict in the Middle East.
https://xcancel.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2039251492314525708
Will be live here too: https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2039266588873105533
[not our war, push for de-escalation, maritime security, restore freedom of navigation, military planners, united front of military strength and diplomatic activity.., crisis, fuel, oil, ..]
https://fixupx.com/AlboMP/status/2039253117385232580
[~ lack of oil / fuel prices, use less petrol, economic crisis, but do not hoard fuel, think of others, use public transport, months ahead may not be easy, uncertain times, we will deal with it]
balmy trail
viral storm
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/2039068429446008881?s=20
For historical context on the last time Iran fought a major conflict.
radiant kiln
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/2039068429446008881?s=20
About the 11 y.o boy - this may be based on the linked below Hengaw article. Whether he was ~recruited or whether his father was called to man a checkpoint and decided to take his son with him is not clear
[given that this Hengaw org has been keeping the "confirmed killed" ratio at 0.09-0.10 civilians/military for 6 consecutive reports starting 10 March, and it differs strongly from HRANA confirmed killed, I would not trust their reporting blindly]
https://hengaw.net/en/news/2026/03/article-83
novel sail
For historical context on the last time Iran fought a major conflict.
https://...
Yes, everyone that have read about that war assumes that Iran will not in any way surrender no matter what...
near grail
rustic pivot
https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-april-1/
After the Guns Fall Silent, a Failed State in Iran Could Breed an Insurgency
Intelligence assessments predict that the current regime in Iran will remain intact, even if in a significantly weaker state, while the most hardline elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will rule as a rump government in Tehran.
There are a number of factors that could increase the chances of an insurgency developing in Iran once the conflict comes to a halt.
A variable that would increase the likelihood of a lingering insurgency in Iran after the current conflict ebbs would be the introduction of U.S. ground troops in an offensive directed at the regime.
The fallout from a failed state in Iran, especially one still controlled by a hardline and battle-tested IRGC core, would reverberate for decades.
weak pike
From the Telegraph UK but via the archive to avoid the paywall:
https://archive.ph/qIbiJ
timid jungle
US naval assets reportedly en route to CENTCOM AoR spotted by Singapore Ship Spotters:
USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115), March 31st 09:30am l]ocal time)
https://www.zzinstagram.com/p/DWiDCrID3BE/
USS Rushmore (LSD-47), March 31st
https://www.zzinstagram.com/p/DWiZzmVj6UK/
⚠️ The video's music selection maybe a bit cringe for some (US national anthem and "Anchors Away").
Both broadcasted on AIS briefly while transiting the Malaccca Strait.
Attached: MarineTraffic Screenshots for each vessel
novel sail
You get the impression that he is not winning as much as he claims..
split ridge
Just to elaborate on what I did here. I estimated the length using the diameter ...
Any chance it could be the Fath-360 https://x.com/imp_navigator/status/1469371184835870731?s=12&t=nn7fBsrkLsFnI-x-3dvXDQ
X
rustic pivot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/01/trump-commando-plan-seize-iran-uranium/
archived: https://archive.ph/RgcTW
orchid badger
[PSAB, March 28]
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2039419658294772068
undone bison
shadow vortex
https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3mihf7xs3fk2t
Regardless of one's position on the war and its combatants, this letter is quite the contrast to Trump's public pronouncements and posts.
torpid quarry
https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3mihf7xs3fk2t
"Lots of dashes, I'm wondering if it was written by ChatGPT."
arctic fog
If both actors weren't parties filled to the brim with compulsive liars this would be easier to dissect.
hot sun
"Lots of dashes, I'm wondering if it was written by ChatGPT."
Could well be an AI translation.
orchid badger
orchid badger
keen spear
Could well be an AI translation.
but it's addressed directly to the American people and, among several languages, he speaks English (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IIPFOzoKyHY). just a bit odd overall
hot sun
but it's addressed directly to the American people and, among several languages,...
He clearly speaks some English but he does the interview in (I presume farsi?). Its been pretty common in the past for world leaders to write in their native language and have it professionally translated. To me personally the cadence of the message does not sound like AI. For what its worth I ran it though an AI detector which said it was 99% sure it was human text "polished" by AI.
tiny path
This all is gonna need a source, by the way.
hot sun
two different AI detectors
hot sun
This all is gonna need a source, by the way.
Previously we've been able to discuss clues about whether something may or may not be AI, but if that's no longer the case I understand.
woeful oar
Just as a note these detectors can't really say much besides spotting what are agreed to be "common indicators". I've had them trip for my students even after I watch them write assignments out in person.
hot sun
Reading it the text is rhetorically consistent with a clear narrative through line which often seems difficult for AI to manage. It is written in a very careful way that both projects Iranian strength without appearing to be threatening. The punctuation is the only thing that looks strange and AI like within it.
serene walrus
and of course take what the Iranians say with a grain of salt, they're not exactly a reliable party either even as the US and Israel aren't entirely paragons of reliability either
torpid quarry
but it's addressed directly to the American people and, among several languages,...
this linked interview is from one year ago. the comments under the video are complaining about translation quality:
" The translation was very poor, in some sentences, half of the sentence was removed! "
additionally, on the @drpezeshkian X account it is consistently Farsi + translation (e.g., english/russian/turkish), except this one post. And the fonts are different across pages, and punctuation is left edge instead of right (so it's translated at some point beforehand): https://x.com/drpezeshkian
X
keen spear
this linked interview is from one year ago. the comments under the video are com...
yeah the translation quality of the parts he spoke in Farsi and which got read in English by a translator. I cited the video for evidence he spoke English, like at the start
all I have to add is none of the translations on his twitter contain emdashes that I see, but they're rife in his letter to the American people (I just counted 22). I suppose we can't conclude more, might be something to watch out for in future Pezeshkian letters or texts
waxen rock
trump just finished his address, and said nothing substantive whatsoever
orchid badger
waxen rock
same threat he's made and walked back before, though
hot sun
same threat he's made and walked back before, though
But interesting he's saying outright it's going to be at least a couple more weeks.
viral storm
I'm fairly sure this whole speech is only useful in the containment zone.
fossil summit
April fools?
keen spear
But interesting he's saying outright it's going to be at least a couple more wee...
Rubio said it would be two or three more weeks last Friday which is almost a week ago. when the admin has no idea when a thing will happen they seem to use "a couple more weeks" as a euphemism
hot sun
Rubio said it would be two or three more weeks last Friday which is almost a wee...
Sure, but he's also been saying the last couple days that he's going to just walk away with no deal, oil markets had priced for that to happen and expected that to be announced today. Following the speech lol reached a new high.
orchid badger
orchid badger
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2038992518784692688
https://xcancel.com/zarGEOINT/st...
FixupX
shadow vortex
Could well be an AI translation.
Yes, I could clock that immediately by the misplaced periods
tiny path
proven tulip
If this is the strategy, then the whole war starts to make much more sense. https://bsky.app/profile/timothysnyder.bsky.social/post/3mihadftkzc2j
novel sail
If this is the strategy, then the whole war starts to make much more sense. http...
I think that people is just overthinking it and assumes that DT actually have a plan. It is far more likely that he thought it would be as Venezuela and is now mad and wants the rest of the world to bail him out.
proven tulip
I’m not saying DT had a plan, but if Putin had a plan and DT was unwittingly playing his part, this would fit.
novel sail
I’m not saying DT had a plan, but if Putin had a plan and DT was unwittingly pla...
Putin might try to use the opportunity yes, but he is as much in the dark as the rest of us.
timid vine
It is more complex than this.
Israel has wanted the US to attack Iran for decades. Bibi has been lobbying for that evers since he came to power.
At minimum Saudi Arabia (and other Gulf states, but Saudi Arabian is the only ones who has so far been named) wanted to replace the Iranian government with someone less hostile and adversarial.
Plenty in the US government and their financiers have wanted to attack Iran for decades and do regime change (and probably take its oil for themselves).
Trump needed something to distract from the Epstein files after the Venezuelan regime change (which had support from within Venezuela brought only bad press and condemnations) and we are seeing the decline of his mental capabilities in real time. It would not take much to convince him that attacking Iran was the right play.
So there are plenty more ordinary suspects already. Putin may have played a role of taking advantage of it, but that is it.
shadow vortex
Well known Iranian-British feminist. Had the pleasure of meeting her at a UN event once.
https://x.com/i/status/2039661201987088710
shadow vortex
X
radiant kiln
It is more complex than this.
Israel has wanted the US to attack Iran for decade...
On the
At minimum Saudi Arabia (and other Gulf states, but Saudi Arabian is the only ones who has so far been named) wanted to replace the Iranian government with someone less hostile and adversarial.
If this is based on this article: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-iran-trump.html ,
It may be a good idea to discount this reporting, for the degree of indirection:
This article is based on interviews with people who have had conversations with American officials, and who described the discussions on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of Mr. Trump’s talks with world leaders.
according to people briefed by U.S. officials on the conversations
[pointed out in this thread https://xcancel.com/im_PULSE/status/2036918063031837092]
serene walrus
On the
> At minimum Saudi Arabia (and other Gulf states, but Saudi Arabian is th...
Theres other sourcing iirc since that article that does back that up allegedly and the public moves by said gulf states dont show much in the way of concilliatory belief
fossil summit
Bloomberg: Iran Is Drafting a Protocol With Oman to Oversee Strait of Hormuz
(Paywall) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-04-02/iran-latest
knotty cedar
The issue has always been Israel and Saudi Arabia being inconvenienced by Iran as a regional power.
They dont want a negociated solution, they want Iran either turned into a petromonarchy selling its oil in $ to buy US weapons or razed to the ground.
shadow vortex
The issue has always been Israel and Saudi Arabia being inconvenienced by Iran a...
Iran as a regional power past a certain threshhold is far beyond just an existential threat to Saudi Arabia (not to Israel). I think that unless the US can create a coalition to wrest control over Hormuz from Iran's hands, the limited bombing campaign bejng conducted will not be sufficient to preventing Iran from growing more and more powerful through its ability to open and close Suez. This war was conducted far, far too late for US-Israeli interests and in extremely poor economic and diplomatic conditions for both countries. When Trump threatsn to bomb Iran to the stone age and Rubio reiterates that Iranian control over Hormuz is unacceptable, I fear they are threatening both Iran and the world - they will completely destroy the Gulf region to prevent Iran from controlling its flows, and they demand that their allies act to prevent Iran from doing so, or else.
pastel arrow
white hull
X
orchid badger
https://x.com/i/status/2039727801469678003
https://xcancel.com/Osinttechnical/status/2039727809292075179 (Thread)
https://xcancel.com/vcdgf555/status/2039738270146523413
https://xcancel.com/Mohsin_o2/status/2039748764202684753#m
https://xcancel.com/imp_navigator/status/2039736333971620048
near grail
https://x.com/i/status/2039727801469678003
white hull
so that indicates UAE then
orchid badger
so that indicates UAE then
While there is no definitive visual proof yet, it's likely belongs to the UAE. they've history of use/supplying WL drones in other conflicts [ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/05/sudan-advanced-chinese-weaponry-provided-by-uae-identified-in-breach-of-arms-embargo-new-investigation/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/libyas-haftar-acquires-combat-drones-despite-un-embargo-2026-04-02/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/21/world/africa/uae-sudan-civil-war.html ]
rustic pivot
near grail
https://bsky.app/profile/gbrumfiel.bsky.social/post/3mijo4d75m22l
https://bsky.a...
It seems like Trump wants to take credit for it?
https://fixupx.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2039717951146729796
https://bskye.app/profile/gbrumfiel.bsky.social/post/3mijofzatqk2l
orchid badger
It seems like Trump wants to take credit for it?
https://fixupx.com/GhonchehAzad...
It aligns with his yesterday statement... 
"A couple of nice bridges in mind. It will take 15-20 years for them to rebuild. " #1473081625775706295 message
it wouldn't be surprising if that was the only reason for it to be targeted
serene walrus
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mijk3gdo522n
double sussy source but has there been any corroboration of that?
tiny path
FWIW, Reuters does not have a story about that.
serene walrus
(Qintanilla has a bunch of fairly suspicious places he pulls info from and Iranian state media is itself always questionable)
tiny path
The only news agencies I saw reporting that (as well as a similar report from Sunday) are not organizations that get quoted as reputable news sources.
near grail
Even AJE says it's just a direct quote from Iran
https://aje.news/1jg6hu?update=4456628
void roost
Hegseth ousts Army Chief of staff #usa-canada message
serene walrus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o9z-U0uZVM
looks like there's some ships able to run the strait
void roost
serene walrus
the Iranians are definitely firing slower, so I think something is up
though the article itself notes that a bunch of the launchers are assessed to be buried which makes them inaccessible but not potentially destroyed
hot sun
the Iranians are definitely firing slower, so I think something is up
Hasn't it been pretty steady the past 3 weeks with a slight recent uptick?
deep folio
the Iranians are definitely firing slower, so I think something is up
well, the us has been threatening ground operations
Iran themselves has said they welcome the opportunity to use strike capabilities within their own airspace because they will be more accurate, they are probably conserving for that eventuallity
serene walrus
i meant compared to the very start of the war, to my understanding it's been about a dozen missiles or so a day with significant variance and a drone count amount that has been consistent to slowing over the past couple weeks but I'd have to find a somewhat credible place for the numbers since I haven't seen anything particularly reliable lately
This isn't me saying that they're going to run out anytime soon, it should be noted
near grail
orchid badger
near grail
serene walrus
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2039933357308727748
somebody suggests it's one of the F-15s from Kuwait that was shot down since that's where the squadron operated, or rather from the same squadron
I wonder if we can confirm if the wreckage is in Iran or if that is in fact older images
weak pike
If Iran did actually shoot down an F-15E (which I concur is more likely than an F-35, especially taking into account the 493 or 494 FS red band in the imagery), there would have been 2 aircrew on board. If Iran has them dead or alive, I'm sure that they'll parade them around left, right and centre. If that hasn't happened in the next few hours then it's almost certainly mal information.
serene walrus
If Iran did actually shoot down an F-15E (which I concur is more likely than an ...
Probably, and also sort of notable is that it appears to be a bunch of pictures of the tail, one would think there would be more wreckage to post
orchid badger
somebody suggests it's one of the F-15s from Kuwait that was shot down since tha...
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2039935087580529007
based on the photos, it doesn't match Kuwait topography
It is more likely from Iran
serene walrus
yeah the mountains in the background definitely suggest as such; some people are wondering if it's possible if it's from the incident at the start of the war where they had to rescue the pilot
But yeah it is also entirely possible this is a new shootdown, which does happen. The fact it's bandied as an F-35 when it's suspiciously not though makes that somewhat suspicious
undone bison
somebody suggests it's one of the F-15s from Kuwait that was shot down since tha...
please always link to your sources
serene walrus
please always link to your sources
it was one of the replies to the twitter post linked above but I was skeptical, the squadron name is listed and can be compared to the previous incidents though; I was musing more on "can we see if this is kuwait or iran"
tiny path
For reference, this is the highest prominence in Kuwait:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutla_Ridge
The highest point is merely a flat area near the border with SA.
dreamy wadi
somebody suggests it's one of the F-15s from Kuwait that was shot down since tha...
it's not. The previously-downed F-15s were 492nd fighter squadron (https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/567520) and 335th FS( https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/567508) (https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/567516)
The 492nd's tail looks like this (1) and the 335ths is the 2nd image
However the 492nd squadron is part of the 48th Fighter Wing, and it looks like one of their sister squadrons is the one that this new F-15 footage is from. Here's an image of an F-15 with the same tail stripe at the top, also an F-15 (as indicated by the hole for the radar warning receiver) (https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9561421/f15s-support-operation-epic-fury)
the white/red/white is from the 494th https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/494th_Fighter_Squadron
shadow vortex
For people who know more about air wars and air defense stuff - does Iran appear to be keeping their air defenses in store for a later stage of warfare, or are these just lucky hits from a largely ineffectual air defense capability?
dreamy wadi
mostly lucky hits. Iran has a ton of decentralized/road-mobile air defenses that are reasonably potent but mostly degraded due to electronic warfare interference and jamming, for those that aren't outright blown up. A pretty good way to keep yourself and your battery alive for road-mobile air-defense forces is to not turn your radar on. You have to turn it on to engage but that also tells the enemy where you are and you're likely to earn an incoming missile for it. So I'd imagine a lot of their air defenses are laying low not out of a deliberate preservation policy from top-down, but a bottom-up "save yourself" sorta thing.
wind inlet
US military purges continues. Two more US army generals fired.
shadow vortex
The military firings are extremely alarming. Trump's whole political leadership is yes-men, incompetent loyalists... it woukd be a disaster for the world and especially the people of Iran if he replaces military leadership with yes-men so he can play general.
wind inlet
The military firings are extremely alarming. Trump's whole political leadership ...
I think its also about US servicemen losses that is expected from a ground operation. The generals were critical and disagreed with this idea so they got fired.
Iran is 5 times more organised than iraq in 2003 and is entrenched deeply and prepared for 40 years for a US invasion
midnight horizon
Hello, this server is not about what you think, it's what we all know, because you can show it with evidence.
modest solstice
it was one of the replies to the twitter post linked above but I was skeptical, ...
Definitely feels more like Iran. Just the image of the crater makes it feel like it's south Iran not too far from the coast but I'd need to spend more time to actually find a match. Happy to split up terrain if people want to search
civic delta
I don’t think it’s an F-35 as they generally don’t have colored paint like that. Looks closer to the F-15 tails.
timid jungle
Hello, I'm deleting this comment as our community focus is on open-source research. Sick burns, speculation, and color commentary are better suited for other social media platforms.
orchid badger
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2040024692124221628
(Nothing yet confirmed but the voices in background of the videos are farsi)
shadow vortex
More footage of the SAR crew
https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/2040028287737479550
orchid badger
near grail
carmine flame
https://bsky.app/profile/cruickshank.bsky.social/post/3milp6ypglc2q
Looks to be an ACES II seat specifically [Lines up w/ F-15 claim] (Source being a A-10 variant, but they have an image of the F-15 handles from https://www.ejectionsite.com/a10seat.htm)
novel sail
I assume that the pilots have been rescued, if they where in iranian custody we would have known.
gritty raptor
Not sure how reliable this is, there are claims that a helicopter was shot down during the SAR
novel sail
Not sure how reliable this is, there are claims that a helicopter was shot down ...
Not much of a proof in the video..
near grail
seems like neither side has found the crew yet:
https://fixupx.com/UK_REPT/status/2040049995693388206
(not sure why they're saying demonic Iranian state, but the news clip is out there)
orchid badger
orchid badger
prime torrent
slender idol
https://fixupx.com/i/status/2040045547017396608
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/03...
https://fixupx.com/chrisschmitz/status/2040054867259990062?s=20
Note, take the speculation on where the aircraft was hit and the distance traveled with a healthy dosage of salt...
serene walrus
https://bsky.app/profile/newrepublic.com/post/3mijob3zi3o23
I will say that at least in where i work (public health) a 3 day lag time for information isnt terribly bad especially off a weekend, which the article cites as a specific example
In a statement sent Monday, CENTCOM said that “approximately 303 U.S. service members have been wounded” since the launch of Operation Epic Fury. But that number was three days old, and excluded the at least 15 troops wounded in a strike at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last week.
Im skeptical of a coverup since we have other reporting that estimates at incidents and often final numbers arent settled for a bit (usually a couple of days)
fading elm
I will say that at least in where i work (public health) a 3 day lag time for in...
I don’t think the allegation is that there is a data collection lag, it’s that the data has been collected, the pentagon knows it and still reports the old number
shadow vortex
Several videos alleging depicting Iranians are taking potshots at the US air force in their airspace https://x.com/TehranTimes79/status/2040055447365836974
X
serene walrus
I don’t think the allegation is that there is a data collection lag, it’s that t...
At least in my experience if we arent sure about new numbers we dont publically report it until we get verification; there could be an intentional delay in verification for nefarious reasons but i dont think the standard for malice in this has been met
near grail
I don't see how comparing ex-post, time-insensitive health data lags is relatable to emergency medicine accounting.
Yes, clinical data has reporting lags, but that doesn't mean the Pentagon doesn't know the number of medical flights that were coordinated after troops are injured, following rapid assessment.
night shuttle
Yeah let's wrap this up, people come to this thread for open source information and news
vapid nimbus
https://x.com/AryJeay/status/2040067419062915141 - helicopter being hit now
X
night shuttle
Is this the same helicopter as #1473081625775706295 message or another one?
slow blade
Is this the same helicopter as https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1...
The silhouette definitely looks to be an H-60 model, which the other one was ID'd as
serene walrus
Im guessing the original article from Tasnim isn't in english but apparently they report that they have the pilot in custody, though images have not been shared by them, and there's still local reporting that the bounty is still being offered
shadow vortex
A few ex-diplomats seemed to have been hacked with pro-Iran messages appearing on their X https://x.com/wendyrsherman/status/2040062114807603430
https://x.com/wendyrsherman/status/2040086530069278873
timid jungle
Confirmation via Airbus of US AN/TPY-2 damage (targeted March 1st, Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia)
https://fixupx.com/ThomasBordeaux7/status/2039809079896400357/en
(Tip of the hat to community member @golden granite )
serene walrus
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2040086910735929658 Israeli reporter is making a claim that one of the F-15 pilots was rescued. No commentary on the second one
slender idol
A few ex-diplomats seemed to have been hacked with pro-Iran messages appearing o...
Yep, however looking at the other pictures and videos in that post and they are certintly reusing the same footage and images of a F-35 being downed.
That said, credit to Aram_S for the ID as the tail identification is completely incorrect.
waxen rock
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2040086910735929658 Israeli reporter is making a ...
US sources are now saying the same
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-warns-more-coming-oil-gas-strait-hormuz/#post-update-826c2bd5
near grail
Yep, however looking at the other pictures and videos in that post and they are ...
I'm confused, are you working off the idea it was an F-35?
Just want to clarify, the idea that it was an F-35 was only put forward by Iran initially.
Multiple outlets have confirmed that it was an F-15E, so it's Iran vs. many at this point:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/03/us-fighter-jet-shot-down-over-iran/
(or you're just pointing out earlier X users fumbling their identification, which is also valid)
slender idol
Just want to clarify, the idea that it was an F-35 was only put forward by Iran ...
It was the latter, the pro-Iran tweet claims its a F-35, and that was one of the images included
https://fixupx.com/wendyrsherman/status/2040062114807603430/photo/2
tiny path
It was the latter, the pro-Iran tweet claims its a F-35, and that was one of the...
Worth noting that the owner of the account disowns that post:
https://newrepublic.com/post/208599/obama-lead-iran-negotiator-sherman-hack-account
slender idol
Worth noting that the owner of the account disowns that post:
https://newrepubli...
Understand, should of clarfied it better.
What i ment is the "proof" the hacker has in the form of the tail identification, is the key giveaway.
weak pike
Some media outlets are reporting that one of the pilots has been rescued. The source they're all quoting is Israeli N12 News (to the media, the back seater is also generally classed as a pilot so it could be the WSO if true).
slow blade
Some media outlets are reporting that one of the pilots has been rescued. The so...
a lot of the media is saying “crew member” which was making me think it’s the WSO
weak pike
I think this is the original source but not 100% sure.
serene walrus
I think this is the original source but not 100% sure.
https://x.com/AmitSegal...
It's one of the first people to put their professional name to it, for sure
void roost
In response to an NPR request, a Navy spokesman acknowledged that 1,500 sailors, their families and several hundred pets were relocated back to the U.S. from NSA Bahrain.
Sailors have been arriving in Norfolk, Va., home to the world's biggest naval base, since at least the middle of March. Several groups that provide aid to military personnel say that the sailors arrived with very little. A call went out to community groups, asking for basic supplies like hygiene products.
"The base was asking for donations of toiletries and different things for the sailors coming back, because they were coming back with nothing," said Derrick Johnson, commander of American Legion Post 327 in Norfolk.
orchid badger
FixupX
orchid badger
timid jungle
NYT reports: A-10 shot down crashed near SoH - pilot rescued.
novel sail
## NYT reports: A-10 ~~shot down~~ crashed near SoH - pilot rescued.
https:/...
"Near the strait" suggest mechanical failure more than a hit.
fading elm
orchid badger
tiny path
A-10 pilot was apparently rescued as well:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/03/world/iran-war-trump-oil/47863db0-d61e-51bf-b7e1-6c4a9dc988e7?smid=url-share
A second Air Force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, and the lone pilot was safely rescued, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the Strait of Hormuz about the same time that an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran, the officials said. In that incident, one crew member was rescued and search-and-rescue operators are looking for the second airman. Officials provided scant details about the A-10 crash, including how and where it happened.
orchid badger
carmine flame
A-10 pilot was apparently rescued as well:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/...
annoyingly both the A-10 and the F-15 both use ACES II ejection seats but I am still decently confident that the specific seat seen here (#1473081625775706295 message) is from the F-15 incident due to the surrounding debris+ the seat handles.
(Mostly getting ahead of what will likely be a decent wave of confusion after this new report)
Still (personally) would like to see the A-10 aftermath, unsure if it was a water ditching or not based on that phrasing!
soft moth
Any damage details or confirmations on this failed launch?
https://fxtwitter.com/marionawfal/status/2040121149141426584?s=46
orchid badger
orchid badger
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-warns-more-coming-oil-gas...
NYT report " A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the Strait of Hormuz about the same time that an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran"
(Location: Strait of Hormuz ; Time: same time that an Air Force F-15E was shotdown) #1473081625775706295 message
CBSNews report: " An American A-10 Warthog took fire and was damaged during a search-and-rescue mission for a crew member on a U.S. fighter jet that was downed over Iran"
(Location: Persian Gulf ; Time: during a search-and-rescue mission)
two different incidents?
sinful pagoda
NYT report " A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the Strait of Hormuz about...
If you mean The A10 and the F15, yes, two separate incidents, as multiple media sources have been shared above
timid jungle
If you mean The A10 and the F15, yes, two separate incidents, as multiple media ...
The CBS/NYT wording on the A-10 raise the question of whether they're referring to two distinct incidents or the same incident.
sinful pagoda
Not necessarily? And besides, what's more likely: contradicting information in a recent event or two similar events happening at the same time?
timid jungle
I don't know. The wording is unclear.
sinful pagoda
I think the way to address it would be to search for evidence of these crashes, see if there's footage, geolocate it, etc
sinful pagoda
Copernicus is showing the extent of pollution over the Strait of Hormuz and entering the Gulf https://bsky.app/profile/wammezz.bsky.social/post/3mimmxgth622a
Claimed footage of the A-10 being hit:
slender idol
Claimed footage of the A-10 being hit:
https://fixvx.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/...
Not a plane expert, but that looks more like a MQ-9 then a A-10...
drowsy tide
Not a plane expert, but that looks more like a MQ-9 then a A-10...
Was about to say that, V tails like a Reaper
sinful pagoda
Not a plane expert, but that looks more like a MQ-9 then a A-10...
Hence why I say claimed, I've seen many people calling it a MQ-9
balmy trail
slender idol
https://t.me/ClashReport/78315
Note: Same content of the telegram post. But here are the uncompressed images of the debris.
https://fixupx.com/clashreport/status/2040194018198384833?s=20
drowsy tide
that "engine" looks relatively small, maybe ballistic missile debris?
keen spear
that "engine" looks relatively small, maybe ballistic missile debris?
https://t.me/s/Middle_East_Spectator
middle east spectator has some pics comparing the debris to a Ghadr ballistic missile
slender idol
that "engine" looks relatively small, maybe ballistic missile debris?
Yeah, my guess would be one of the engines from the F-15 that was shot down earlier today…
tiny path
Wouldn't it be weird for that engine to still be burning so many hours after the incident? Note the ejector seat was in daylight and the engine was near/after sunset.
near grail
Note: Same content of the telegram post. But here are the uncompressed images o...
seeing unconfirmed claims that it's a failed missile launch
https://fixupx.com/Mohsin_o2/status/2040218483875848478
I'm not able to find any primary sources sharing a wreckage image with that silver conical section; if anyone else has better luck or can find that it's reusing old war footage, would be interesting to know.
.png){kind=link}
void roost
https://fixupx.com/aldin_aba/status/2040231830981382307
Similar post with this info Images confirm that a U.S. Army Boeing CH-47 Chinook heavy-lift helicopter sustained significant damage as a result of recent Iranian drone strikes on Camp Buehring in Kuwait.
timid vine
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-saudi-arabia-mbs-gulf-war-uae-89f690b952fe28d3140c537b70fa5051
Officials from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership or there’s a dramatic shift in Iranian behavior, according to the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
rough jewel
I always find this quite funny as even despite similar scandals in the past you could find random loops in empty parts of the Saudi desert. I had a hunch that this was still happening, even before this war
rotund stump
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/military-locations-leaked-strava-5HjdXK5_2/
Apart from the time when the position of the french aircraft carrier was revealed I think these are all bases that were publicly known (article only mentions very well known uk bases)