It's not very breaking, it was announced towards the end of April: https://www.jfeed.com/news-israel/ronen-bar-shin-bet-director-resignation
#2024-2025 Iran / Israel and United States Clashes (NO MEMES)
glass rampart
rigid light
warmonitors iirc is a pretty bad account - especially when dealing with israel/palestine
wouldn't really quote them on this and wait for a better source to talk about it
deep pumice
X
minor nest
MenchOsint is one of those that doesn't list sources either
celest ridge
This fake video is going around
https://vxtwitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1934049442677543390
celest ridge
MenchOsint is one of those that doesn't list sources either
Absolutely a ton of that going around with a lot of these videos and images
minor nest
This fake video is going around
https://vxtwitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/193404...
Mathis caught that too #1383207852964843540 message
minor nest
Absolutely a ton of that going around with a lot of these videos and images
Real frustrating
deep pumice
Anything on this? "Tamra tonight: Police attack residents who took to the streets because they have no shelters"
https://x.com/arixegal/status/1934040668684612061
X
tranquil saddle
This fake video is going around
https://vxtwitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/193404...
That is crazy, I could’ve never recognized it was AI, apparently I’m not the only one.
cedar loom
That is crazy, I could’ve never recognized it was AI, apparently I’m not the onl...
The fall of the building looked a little bit like looney tunes
brittle fulcrum
That is crazy, I could’ve never recognized it was AI, apparently I’m not the onl...
there's a few tells, the missile is going in slow motion, while the building is falling in real time. also, listen to the sound. The sound is generated from what the video shows, but in real life sound travel way slower than light
tranquil saddle
there's a few tells, the missile is going in slow motion, while the building is ...
the "missiles" in the background is also a give away
brittle fulcrum
yes one does a 90° instant turn on the last few frames
split orchid
And the projectile is moving waaaaay too slow, besides not looking like a warhead. More of a meteor or burning plane
woven hound
there's a few tells, the missile is going in slow motion, while the building is ...
another very useful one is to note that the camera is aiming directly at the target (well, slightly off centre). obviously in real videos this happens occasionally, but it’s an obvious question to ask why they happened to have a static angle aimed at the building that would be dramatically hit
slate spade
Anything on this? "Tamra tonight: Police attack residents who took to the street...
It's possible. It's a mainly Arab community in the North of Israel, and there were complaints last year about a lack of shelters during rocket attacks.
tranquil saddle
Iran seems to potentially be targeting Israeli nuclear research facilities.
The Weizmann institute has a notable physics faculty with their Koffler particle accelerator being a famous part of the university.
https://x.com/thecradlemedia/status/1934071787735650808?s=46&t=EICw3-cxS0FC4Q45ICLtWQ
X
deep pumice
X
half marsh
I saw that and after some time it disappeared from fr24.
Is there any way we can trace this if it disappear like this?
cinder plaza
Funny how when Iran ships some arms its called "smuggling", but when the USA does it they are simply supplying...sorry I just get tired of the way media outlets always have to slip in their own political bias
crisp jungle
Funny how when Iran ships some arms its called "smuggling", but when the USA doe...
Iran is not shipping arms to the Lebanese government forces but to Hezbollah i.e. they are smuggling .
safe bobcat
Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government.
cinder plaza
Iran is not shipping arms to the Lebanese government forces but to Hezbollah i.e...
I think you need to look up the definition of Smuggling
woven hound
Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government.
ehhhhhhhhhhh it’s a lot more complicated than that
deep pumice
Lets keep this channel to its intended purpose please
woven hound
they are not an arm of the Lebanese state, they have a political arm that is part of the Lebanese government, but there are numerous factions within Lebanon’s government that take issue with them so it’s a bit misleading to say they are part of it. they have a complicated relationship with the Lebanese government
as to the smuggling topic: it does seem to be legally considered smuggling by the Lebanese government, given they have previously seized shipments bound for Hezbollah when they have arrived in Lebanon.
US shipments to Israel, while there’s certainly a very clear moral argument against them that can be made (it’s not worth getting into that), are not considered illegal by any party involved, which means they can’t really be considered smuggling, particularly since they’re also done in a very public and well known manner.
modern finch
TOI reporting large scale strikes on Shiraz
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/widespread-israeli-air-force-strikes-reported-in-tehran-military-bases-hit-in-shiraz/
woven hound
https://fixupx.com/BarzanSadiq/status/1934222856784658744/en air force residential complex
vapid whale
restive vessel
Forgive me for being ignorant but is there a credible source to catch up on this subject? I would love to see why this is happening
radiant pelican
Forgive me for being ignorant but is there a credible source to catch up on this...
Israel claims Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons, anything beyond that really is speculation.
split orchid
Also this happened:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-board-declares-iran-breach-non-proliferation-duties-diplomats-say-2025-06-12/
And new talks with the U.S. were in the works.
restive vessel
Israel claims Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons, anything beyond that ...
That's understandable so things are still fresh to research which is nice
modern finch
Al Jazeera with footage of the results of the Tehran attacks
https://aje.io/9yu24p?update=3777041
glass rampart
That's understandable so things are still fresh to research which is nice
Well, the nuclear program controversy is 30 years old, and Bibi has been talking about striking Iran since 1993 apparently.... so there is lots of things to "rediscover"
restive vessel
Well, the nuclear program controversy is 30 years old, and Bibi has been talkin...
Very interesting. Seems like alot to unpack
muted cliff
I saw that and after some time it disappeared from fr24.
Is there any way we can...
was scrolling twitter and found this:
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1934134160811290647
Cannot position the truthfulness of the tweet however..
X
modern finch
claimed Israeli strike on Mashad airport, which if true would be the longest ranged strike so far in the war
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1934267896504385991
fossil folio
Forgive me for being ignorant but is there a credible source to catch up on this...
I would recommend looking up Tom Cooper, or "Sarcastosaurus" for a technical understanding, and reading the BBC for a broader political one.
grave tulip
claimed Israeli strike on Mashad airport, which if true would be the longest ran...
Seems well within range of a F15E (2,400 miles/3,860 km). F15I seems to have an even longer range. Although they may have to refuel on their way back.
modern finch
Seems well within range of a F15E (2,400 miles/3,860 km). F15I seems to have an ...
the return journey would have been roughly 4,600km. still quite impressive for a country that lacks strategic bombers
someone's done the geolocation
https://vxtwitter.com/Mitch_Ulrich/status/1934271791549071685
cinder plaza
A GAF A400M showed itself briefly at least twice today over Jordan (sorry didnt get a screenshot before it dissapeared. has Germany admitted involvement yet?
glass rampart
Very interesting. Seems like alot to unpack
You aren't wrong, here's Iran the profile page at the arms control association: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/arms-control-and-proliferation-profile-iran
half marsh
was scrolling twitter and found this:
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/19341341608...
Thanks
plush nymph
dont know the account https://bsky.app/profile/mediaitenews.bsky.social/post/3lrnwyr6qg62l
marsh bison
Wouldn’t surprise me. Netanyahu is desperate to drag US into this.
warped cedar
I don't think it was ever explicitly reported but we did hear about Irans little (failed) assassination campaign againt the first Trump admins natsec staff who dealt with Iran. When they went after Bolton I think it got lost that the govt indicated that was an actual broader set of activities by them, not just one solely targeting Bolton.
modern finch
sirens sounding in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on livestreams, interceptions in progress
wispy dawn
modern finch
woven hound
anyone have any idea what’s up with this weird lingering effect after impacts?
it’s obviously the result of the interception in some way, but I haven’t really seen anything like it in prior videos, whereas the expansion effect of the fuel cloud has been seen a bunch before. but I haven’t really seen this lingering
wispy dawn
Maybe it's sunlight reflecting off particles.
No idea if it's high enough up for the Sun to not be obstructed by the Earth though.
shadow notch
balmy cliff
IDF has released a video of reportedly showing an Iranian SAM being destroyed in Tehran
X
slate spade
Lots of US military refueling ops planned…somewhere that doesn’t look to be Europe…
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lrowb3hd6s2b
dawn osprey
obsidian hollow
Iranian media claims that they have killed high rank at Israel ! IS it just propaganda as the shutting down the F-35
cinder plaza
Wouldn’t surprise me. Netanyahu is desperate to drag US into this.
The US is already directly involved
astral holly
Lots of US military refueling ops planned…somewhere that doesn’t look to be Euro...
There seems to be a lot of debate online about whether it's related to exercises in Europe?
dusky pine
Some are now decending and appears to land in Spain.
deep pumice
There seems to be a lot of debate online about whether it's related to exercises...
A friend of mine said it was for Finnish military exercise but I can't anything to confirm it
dusky pine
A friend of mine said it was for Finnish military exercise but I can't anything ...
Atlantic Trident 25 is starting today https://puolustusvoimat.fi/en/-/1951206/finland-to-host-the-atlantic-trident-25-exercise-and-nato-rq-4-aircraft-in-summer-2025
*Atlantic Trident 25 will take place from 16 to 27 June 2025, involving all the Finnish Air Force’s main operating bases and the Halli forward operating base in Jämsä. In addition to Finnish F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets, participating aircraft include U.S. F-35A Lightning II and F-15E Strike Eagle jets and KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelling aircraft; Typhoon jets from the Royal Air Force; as well as Rafale jets, an E-3F AWACS aircraft, and an A400M transport aircraft from France. *
deep pumice
Atlantic Trident 25 is starting today https://puolustusvoimat.fi/en/-/1951206/fi...
Ah okay so it is the exercise
dusky pine
Ah okay so it is the exercise
I assume so yes. And part of that could be the redeployment from the US.
astral holly
Atlantic Trident 25 is starting today https://puolustusvoimat.fi/en/-/1951206/fi...
That seems to be a rather huge number of tankers for an exercise, no?
dusky pine
That seems to be a rather huge number of tankers for an exercise, no?
They appears to land all over europe, Spain, Germany, GB so it is possible that only some of them are participating in the Exercise. But ive seen exercises where they have 5+ tankers on station at the same time so they might need a lot of them.
astral holly
They appears to land all over europe, Spain, Germany, GB so it is possible that ...
Thanks, I've been trying to find the numbers on how many were used for Steadfast Defence last year to compare.
So for past NATO exercises it seems like the US deployed only 6-8 tankers? and mostly ones that were already in Europe.
dusky pine
I guess they also ferried fighters across so some of them could have been for that. But they might have different tasks.
rigid light
Iranian media claims that they have killed high rank at Israel ! IS it just prop...
There's no imagery and no casualty reports from Israel, propaganda
dusky pine
But at least it looks like a deployment to western Europe and not something that is going to the ME for now.
rigid light
anyone have any idea what’s up with this weird lingering effect after impacts?
i believe this is an indicator of exoatmospheric intercepts
here's one from a while ago, think it's because it's far enough that it's the sun reflecting off it
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fu1bc1/iranian_ballistic_missile_intercepted_in_outer/
rigid light
A GAF A400M showed itself briefly at least twice today over Jordan (sorry didnt ...
why anything over the eastern med - there's a lot of GPS jamming and you can't really pinpoint anything using civilian GPS
adsb/flightradar/civilian gps relies on both working on a non jammed environment+having enough trackers to make it effective
give or take the kind of receivers used for flightradar will be around 200-250km, which means not everywhere will have good signal which is why planes drop off/pop all over the place
glass rampart
There's no imagery and no casualty reports from Israel, propaganda
The claimed kills are probably propaganda, but remember Israel also has very heavy censorship of local media covering damage from the attacks.
hot python
Overview of overnight tanker traffic:
https://bskye.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lrpwir7qws2b
marble locust
celest ridge
Chief National Security Correspondent for Fox News:
https://fixupx.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1934615147227549742
modern finch
astral holly
https://vxtwitter.com/NaksBilal/status/1934333364279873720
An interesting feature of Western (individual states and NATO) official documents and analysis regarding Israel's past wars and its chosen fighting style was a ubiquitous assumption that Israel's systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure and high civilian casualty rates was due to the tactics of its adversaries, who reverse-engineered massacres and hid in civilian infrastructure to hurt Israel's public image. It will be interesting to see how a strategic bombing campaign of Iranian civilians targets will be justified in future analyses.
vxTwitter / fixvx
wispy dawn
royal kite
obtuse raft
This video is strange. The kid is saying that the missiles hit Tzur Hadassa, which is no where near Haifa (it’s closer to Jerusalem). I didn’t geolocate it or check if it’s an old vid from 2024 (I didn’t see reports that Tzur Hadassa was hit on Jun 14)
But to answer your question about Haifa, there’s the oil refinery (Bazan) and heavy industry in the Haifa bay. Bazan was hit once during that barrage late Sat night and twice last night (between Sun and Mon).
This is an article in Heb about it, if you google translate it pls note that it sometimes wrongly translates Bazan as “BAZN” and even as “IDF” or “Lebanese Armed Forces”
latent spade
somber obsidian
X
royal kite
You can view them at 35.69468, 51.33251 - seeing people say they were decomissioned in 2022 or otherwise not usable. Can't verify that, but you can definitely verify that they've been in that exact location for quite a while.
latent spade
https://x.com/avischarf/status/1934668890954461298
It’s 2k ammunition, it’s ok
obtuse raft
i believe this is an indicator of exoatmospheric intercepts
here's one from a w...
I’ve also seen the same explanation.
https://x.com/rackmada/status/1779374519674642756
https://x.com/orfialkov/status/1779308977785819324
https://x.com/oalexanderdk/status/1933638351724425683
X
X
X
X
X
balmy cliff
Assuming this numbers are accurate or close to accurate, that gives Israel's air defences at 90%+ interception rate.
obtuse raft
Assuming this numbers are accurate or close to accurate, that gives Israel's air...
Take it with a grain of salt. She’s retweeting Hasbara accounts and copy-pasting IDF numbers (not to mention the glee over the strike on the IRIB).
The Israeli propaganda (a lot of it targeted at Israelis themselves) is trying to paint a picture of great successes and hide the blows Israel took.
balmy cliff
RRR9959X https://fr24.com/RRR9959X/3ad46cf1
RAF Typhoon has declared an in-flight emergency near Israel
subtle horizon
looks like its not squawking 7700 anymore
might be on a flight with this RAF KC2 https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR9961/3ad3acff
balmy cliff
looks like its not squawking 7700 anymore
Yeah it's possible it was low on fuel
hot python
looks like its not squawking 7700 anymore
Is that a tanker nearby? Emergency may be over if it managed to refuel.
subtle horizon
ya the KC2 was nearby when it was squawking 7700
obtuse raft
This article made it particularly easy to geolocate the site of the missile strike in Tel Aviv this morning (~4:30 local time).
It mentions a nearby bar and a parking lot.
It’s also about 450m from the US embassy.
(32.0732678, 34.7690560)
frozen tinsel
I came here to check in on the tanker situation, y'all already ahead
18 tankers seem to be headed to Europe, it doesn't seem like routine repositioning flight, curious if anyone has anything more recent
hot python
I came here to check in on the tanker situation, y'all already ahead
18 tankers ...
Are these new? Or from yesterday? #1228798424875270196 message
vapid whale
'Don't let beautiful Tehran become Gaza': Iranians tell of shock and confusion https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clylwvzxy4wo
muted bane
Doing a bit of reading between the lines, and this might explain the tanker movements recently.
vapid whale
hxxps[://]truthsocial[.]com/@realDonaldTrump/114695407357588413
floral jetty
speed running W’s presidency
late otter
https://bsky.app/profile/alesizneias.com/post/3lrqqxbdejp2r
Does anyone know of any more context or evidence behind this?
lapis berry
Edited: this was posted but now talk of him returning and meeting with advisors so revising to note that.
Now WH is walking it back. Madnes
vapid whale
Edited: this was posted but now talk of him returning and meeting with advisors ...
Their comms is a clusterfuck
Declaring war by subtweet, smh
astral holly
https://bsky.app/profile/alesizneias.com/post/3lrqqxbdejp2r
Does anyone know of...
@somber obsidian it makes sense that the US would station tankers for long-distance bombing runs in Europe and withdraw its aircraft from irans missile range.
vapid whale
lapis berry
Now returning from G7 and meeting on situation room so who the f knows https://www.threads.com/@yasharali/post/DK-xkUGy8LG
floral jetty
https://fixupx.com/WhiteHouse/status/1934745869821370570
what a stupid turn of events
astral holly
X
I can't help but despise the use of "issued an order" in this case. Who runs that account?
random lily
This is an image from this morning, posted by Evergreen Intel on Bluesky in a follow up to the thread they created tracking the inital movement of these tankers. The original post was linked here: #1228798424875270196 message
brittle fulcrum
oof, deleting, thanks for looking out
random lily
The planes displayed here are not in fact in transit anymore. They began landing at around 3:00AM EDT around Europe. An additional 5 tankers are en route now per the same source https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lrrbbwggjk2b
minor nest
denial that the US is joining. trump cuts g7 trip short due to "what's going on in the middle east" https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-cuts-g7-trip-short-israel-iran-middle-east/
"The U.S. is not joining Israel's military offensive, U.S. officials told CBS News Monday evening. Despite reports that Mr. Trump asked the National Security Council and Situation Room to be readied upon his return to the White House, Cabinet members in the National Security Council are already on standby 24 hours a day — including since Israel's strikes on Iran began last week."
(note that I'm not making a judgement call here, just posting news)
astral holly
What's most remarkable is that I have not seen any news indicating that Iran's leadership have made the political decision to pursue a nuclear weapon.
Just heard on AJ Arabic, citing CNN - Trump is trying to meet Iranian officials for negotiations as fast as possible.
Interesting statement from Netanyahu... a declaration of victory? https://edition.cnn.com/
There was a claim tonight by Israeli television that the US joined in the attack on Iran. The US claims categorically that this is not true, but seems like its position to deal with an Iranian escalation. It would be very interesting to see satellite imagery soon, in case there are GBU-57 holes in Fordow and Natanz.
floral jetty
Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that,” IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114695595047194931
random lily
(note that I'm not making a judgement call here, just posting news)
It will be hard to make a judgement call either way until we see how things further play out, no matter what the administration says. So far at least 37 tankers, mostly KC-135 Stratotankers with some KC-46 Pegasus (767-200 airframe) have been sent to Europe, with (as mentioned) at least 32 completing the journey this morning. The noteable piece of this to me is that the bulk of the tankers landed at Morón, which has served as an active refueling base for them in past operations, the most notable of which being the 2011 operations in Libya. It's fuel lines are in the ideal configuration for active service for the refueling tankers, which is what it was used for in 2011. If these tankers were positioned with the intent of using them, this is exactly where they would be positioned. They may also be there as a precaution - allowing for large scale air operations to commence with very little notice if things "go south" in terms of whatever negotiations the administration claims to be attempting, or even as an implicit threat to attempt to gain leverage in those negotiations. The actual purpose of them being there is going to come down to informed speculation, but this is definitely not a normal repositioning or related to the ongoing exercises in Finland. A transfer of nearly 10% of the entire tanker fleet across the Atlantic is not something done just for fun and is extremely unusual.
floral jetty
Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that,” IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLE...
This makes honestly me think the B2s are bombing Iran tonight
OSINT defender is a terrible account 😦
astral holly
This makes honestly me think the B2s are bombing Iran tonight
Worried I'm veering off into speculation, but Trump's current urgent behavior and conflicting news from Israel/US indicates they already have or are currently doing so.
floral jetty
Who knows, gotta stick to what we have and it’s all contradictory
minor nest
It will be hard to make a judgement call either way until we see how things fur...
Thanks for the reply, I understand it's unusual. I added that "just posting news" bit because I didn't want a bunch of replies telling me I'm downplaying (not saying you are doing this!) when I think it's important to see what the administration is saying
astral holly
Urgent | US State Department: Rubio and his British counterpart confirm in a call their commitment to a diplomatic path to prevent the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1934779461792153629
random lily
Thanks for the reply, I understand it's unusual. I added that "just posting news...
Of course. I replied more to indicate it was a follow up to the news posting and to offer a bit more info (especially to folks who might think this is routine or related to the exercises). I've been following the fleet being shifted over since Midnight EDT yesterday (minus about 6 hours today), and with more folks starting to cover it, the information out there is getting a little bit jumbled, and I haven't seen anyone commenting on the role that Morón played in Libya. I've lurked long enough to know you have a good understanding of what's going on!
minor nest
Of course. I replied more to indicate it was a follow up to the news posting and...
Don't forget to get some rest 🙂
potent lion
OSINT defender is a terrible account 😦
Oh shit I thought it was the other guy mb
astral holly
Alarms going off as missiles target north Israel. Iran threatened an even bigger attack this time...
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1934786507421733023
split orchid
What's most remarkable is that I have not seen any news indicating that Iran's l...
400 kg of highly enriched uranium is not good for anything else. The decision was very plainly made long ago to pursue the option of quickly completing a weapon. And it's not a decision that journalists would be privy to. The main 'news' to point to here would be the IAEA board finally declaring Iran in breach of its obligations.
And some Israeli sources said there were reports of concerning tests being conducted (implosion or something)? But grain of salt on that, naturally.
balmy cliff
3-5% Uranium enrichment is needed for civilian nuclear power. The fact that Iran is up to apparently 60% shows that it's for less than peaceful purposes...
brittle fulcrum
Looks like no bunker busters have been used on Natanz (yet), but this shows new damage to the surface
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lrreswe7g22v
nvm the image is clearly from june 15th, i need to sleep
lapis berry
https://www.threads.com/@dannykpolitics/post/DK_A3DyudxV
any other source to confirm
barren brook
split orchid
Some stationary AIS beacons there. Check out everyone huddling up rather than entering the strait.
And also an Indian yacht in the area of the burning vessels
astral holly
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/could-iran-have-been-close-to-making-...
Of course, Iran itself recognizes that they enriched as a cusp-of-nuclesr deterrent. What I mean is that Iran not having made the political decision to build a weapon was something that the US intel community has tracked, and I've yet to see claims from them that it has (though perhaps the level of intelligence penetration is not that deep.)
muted bane
The planes displayed here are not in fact in transit anymore. They began landing...
Got some more data regarding the 3 thermal blips from NASA Worldview.
Going from Left to Right (Closest to the coast - furthest from the coast).
Additionally, most importantly times depicted are UTC
winter agate
Got some more data regarding the 3 thermal blips from NASA Worldview.
Going fro...
Is there a conversion scale for brightness temp to percieved actual temp?
muted bane
Is there a conversion scale for brightness temp to percieved actual temp?
Not that I see, it’s just measuring the brightness in Kelvin
The only one that has a decent explanation is the FRP value
celest ridge
muted bane
https://vxtwitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1934811914246181260
It’s a Bloomberg article that Stripes is reposting, but this article was posted earlier today.
With that said, take that AIS data with a grain of salt as there is definitely some jamming going on in that area
prime shore
fickle slate
I've searched here for F-14 but couldn't find any info if this has been debunked already as a fake video or is actually legit?
deep zodiac
I came here to check in on the tanker situation, y'all already ahead
18 tankers ...
Why are tankers visible to track and for example the fighter jets are not?
rigid light
Why are tankers visible to track and for example the fighter jets are not?
Lack of transponder/need for opsec
Military aircraft don't need to transmit ads-b signals so it's not always they'll be up
woven hound
I've searched here for F-14 but couldn't find any info if this has been debunked...
legit video, targets are old spares
astral holly
modern finch
I keep seeing claims made that the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been essentially removed from his position and sequestered away after a supposed mental breakdown
I'm almost certain this is disinfo
somber obsidian
<@827538767895330826> it makes sense that the US would station tankers for long-...
Interesting
iron shell
Not sure on the validity of this - https://www.instagram.com/p/DLALwm-sLv7/?igsh=MXNjMjZ4Z3I3bWllaA==
Evergreen is in some form of agreement - https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lrsfelhwqk2b
split orchid
It has got to be really difficult for the White House to resist seal clubbing Iran at this point. A few strikes on Fordow and walk away like nothing happened. Any Republican and most Democratic presidents would probably do it, tbh.
iron shell
I dunno. It feels like the current administration seems to be craving a Persian Gulf moment, so I doubt they'd leave it at just a few strikes. The pessimist in me thinks if it does go down, we may see boots on the ground there.
I am also not an expert on this, so take my opinion with a huuuge pinch of salt.
obtuse raft
I've searched here for F-14 but couldn't find any info if this has been debunked...
#1228798424875270196 message
#1228798424875270196 message
split orchid
I dunno. It feels like the current administration seems to be craving a Persian ...
Boots on the ground? I give that a <5% probability and only if Iran's government collapses.
iron shell
Boots on the ground? I give that a <5% probability and only if Iran's government...
Cool. Like I say, I am no expert here 🙂
astral holly
Much more likely that there would be a strategic bombing campaign followed by a years-long quest by the Iranian state to attain nuclear weapons. It's extremely bleak outlook and global economy will suffer along with lynchpin Europe and Asian stability.
frail halo
https://www.instagram.com/p/DK-vXeHpHMC/?igsh=ZGVwbDVtemRwbWZw I don’t know if we’ve seen this one before in this channel, but I figured this may lighten the mood
Instagram
iron shell
https://www.instagram.com/p/DK-vXeHpHMC/?igsh=ZGVwbDVtemRwbWZw I don’t know if w...
Them F-35s getting LARGE.
astral holly
https://www.instagram.com/p/DK-vXeHpHMC/?igsh=ZGVwbDVtemRwbWZw I don’t know if w...
If US jets went the way of US pickup trucks
More bombing of Tehran right now: https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1934988902038638637
late otter
balmy cliff
I would assume that this "glitch" is being caused by GPS jamming in the area. Both a DHL aircraft and a Gulf Helicopters AW139 seem to have been teleported over the Iranian coast.
ES129 from Dammam to Dubai https://fr24.com/DHX129/3ad75b6d
astral holly
modern finch
...we?
split orchid
Well yeah, in Trump World anytime someone gains something, it means that everyone else loses. So unless Israel's success is Trump's success, that means that Trump loses. Can't have that.
plush nymph
person, woman, man, camera, sky tracker
subtle horizon
"stuff"
marsh bison
He sounds like a cartoon villain. Interesting point is how will Trump’s Nobel peace prize aspirations affect this conflict.
plush nymph
and once again i ask myself why this person got elected
muted bane
FixupX
plush nymph
Better to disinfo.
floral jetty
https://bsky.app/profile/yasharali.bsky.social/post/3lrslkght6c2x
Huh
man, maybe we’re getting president Vance in 2027
iron shell
https://bsky.app/profile/yasharali.bsky.social/post/3lrslkght6c2x
Huh
This is a lot of words for "Can I come home please I'm scared"
woven hound
balmy cliff
I'll move the link I posted to #1383207852964843540
woven hound
this is from last year. it’s dated to today but it’s about something last year
upbeat edge
this is from last year. it’s dated to today but it’s about something last year
Just saw the debunk post, moving it to Disinfo
brittle fulcrum
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/4/edit?mid=1NVxYHcIp8zO9EsOQhnu3lg8qVpABMU0&usp=sharing
I made a map of 46 air force bases of interests from all sides (US, IS, IR), each with a few to a dozen of the latest Sentinel-1 SAR imagery i could get.
deep zodiac
Lack of transponder/need for opsec
Military aircraft don't need to transmit ads...
Thank you.
deep zodiac
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/4/edit?mid=1NVxYHcIp8zO9EsOQhnu3lg8qVpABMU0&usp=...
Very nice. I did not know there was a base in UAE used by USA.
deep thistle
There's been things circulating online saying that USA is going to strike Iran tonight, is there anything verifiable on that?
deep zodiac
There's been things circulating online saying that USA is going to strike Iran t...
You have some source?
deep thistle
not really, there's tweets like this
floral jetty
not really, there's tweets like this
It’s just the mood
balmy cliff
There's been things circulating online saying that USA is going to strike Iran t...
I doubt they'll be any official press release on the US getting involved until it actually happens. But if POTUS' social media and the US military deployments are anything to go by, I'd say that American intervention is now more likely than not. But it may not happen tonight.
deep thistle
vapid whale
Fairly sure US opsec guidance is literally designed to hedge against these kinds of indicators being accurate, but the Pentagon pizza meter has been spiking
deep zodiac
I doubt they'll be any official press release on the US getting involved until i...
Agree on that
deep thistle
and a screenshot from whatever telegram
deep zodiac
Fairly sure US opsec guidance is literally designed to hedge against these kinds...
Haha i saw that one.
vapid whale
Haha i saw that one.
"G-d tells Mike Huckabee to glass Iran" is such a good reflection of current US foreign policy
deep zodiac
I think they are moving fast. As soon as the air is in control (take out missle systems and airfields etc), they move forward i think
deep zodiac
"G-d tells Mike Huckabee to glass Iran" is such a good reflection of current US ...
Haha, they have all the reasons to do so
balmy cliff
To me, deploying a second CSG (Nimitz) to CENTCOM is a definite sign of intent. China is America's pacing threat and, last I heard, the PLAN had two CVs at sea past the first island chain. To pull the Nimitz CSG away from that to join the Vinson is one hell of a sign.
deep zodiac
To me, deploying a second CSG (Nimitz) to CENTCOM is a definite sign of intent. ...
Yea thats a interesting one. It really does look like they’re making all the moves to get the job done.
deep pumice
might be legit https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1935078273656205392
deep zodiac
This plan looks incredibly well thought-out. it’s probably been on the drawing board for years. And now, from a military-strategic perspective, it seems like the perfect moment for Israel and the US to push forward.
Hamas is crippled and unlikely to intervene effectively, Russia is tied up with Ukraine and other fronts, and the Houthis are still relatively distant from the core theater.
Although i am not an expert tho
deep pumice
This plan looks incredibly well thought-out. it’s probably been on the drawing b...
lets not speculate please
plush nymph
Sources and sentdefender doesn't fit together.
There's a spec channel on another server, let's keep it real here
deep zodiac
I can remove it if you like
plush nymph
No need for that
deep pumice
I can remove it if you like
no stress
radiant pelican
This plan looks incredibly well thought-out. it’s probably been on the drawing b...
Trump's general demenor suggests it's not actually very well thought out at all. It seems to have come as a suprise to him. There's serious doubts about whether strikes could stop Iran's nuclear program, and how long it might even delay it by, and these kinds of strikes have often lead to countries pursuing nuclear weapons more aggressively, as they feel its the only counter measure they have against constant bombing.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/would-military-strikes-kill-irans-nuclear-programme-probably-not-2025-04-15/
https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-do-israeli-strikes-mean-irans-nuclear-program
lapis berry
Just some side commentary on the Trump/Huckabee post this am. There is a deep awareness in evangelical circles of Israel as essential to eschatology and an all out war with Iran checks so many “prophecy” boxes. It would also further cement Trumps role as “savior/king”. This is a background consideration in the room for those who are true believers like Hegseth and others. It’s not just the “nukes”
minor nest
Hello everyone! I'll be around tonight for the next few hours keeping an eye on things. You can ping me directly. Remember to post links, not screenshots, and yeah, speculation is for everywhere else on the internet!
vapid whale
radiant pelican
From 2013
https://xcancel.com/realDonaldTrump/status/399731975432728576
For anyone who does not remember, this didn't happen, Obama secured a nuclear deal with Iran and Trump pulled out of it.
native iron
telephone conversations between Trump and Netanyahu https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-06-17/trump-spoke-with-netanyahu-on-tuesday-axios-reports
solemn cargo
telephone conversations between Trump and Netanyahu https://www.usnews.com/news/...
The “article” is one sentence. Can’t believe USNews took the time to post this.
candid eagle
native iron
The “article” is one sentence. Can’t believe USNews took the time to post this.
The information is running fast, I read a lot of things by X that I try to contrast with media news
late otter
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lrthpdhgxk2u
This journalist has been putting out a lot of good consistent updates (not sure on credibility)
fossil folio
might be legit https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1935078273656205392
Account looks like iranian propagandist.. looks to me like the stuff we've already seen? e.g. not especially legit imo
frail halo
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lrthpdhgxk2u
This journalis...
the ink on that diego garcia treaty is still wet and we’re already trying to get our money’s worth
https://x.com/penpizzareport/status/1935099016468988258?s=46&t=U8gw2kfalJ_7TbwFx-cIow closest gay bar to the pentagon
X
fossil folio
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lrthpdhgxk2u
This journalis...
https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-photo-shows-us-fighters-bombers-key-air-base-2083771 fits with buildup observed there lately
vagrant remnant
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lrthpdhgxk2u
This journalis...
I feel like calling them “nuclear-capable”, while accurate, is a bit irresponsible at this point in time. (B-2s and B-52s are both “nuclear-capable”, it doesn’t mean they’re carrying nukes any time they take off.)
native iron
https://x.com/khamenei_fa/status/1935091514083778752?s=46 “… the battle begins” 47 minutes ago
X
fossil folio
https://x.com/khamenei_fa/status/1935091514083778752?s=46 “… the battle begins” ...
Likely tonight's barrage?
astral holly
It's not apparent that the drive towards regime change in Iran was really motivated by developments in their nuclear program. If you look at this current administration's makeup, it is full of people who have anticipated this moment for a very long time. There is no good reason to believe that Iran was any closer to a nuke today than it has been at several points in the past.
There are stronger arguments to be made relating to related to Netanyahu's political preferences, Iran's clesr weakness in previous escalatory spirals, the collapse of its proxies and the Trump admin's Christian fanatic members (Huckabee, Hegseth).
It is not insignificant that the US Vice President would feel a great need to write a post like the following: https://x.com/JDVance/status/1934996183702704404
It signals that the political capital the Trump administration has is nothing at all like the political capital George W Bush had entering the Iraq war.
But that's not necessarily a good thing, because it looks like the US is poised to destroy Iran from the sky over an extended period and let others deal with the chaos and backlash that ensues, fearing "mission creep" or being drawn on in the ground. I don't know how it can stop the closure of Hormuz.
Nations are reacting in accordance to their interests - the West is happy to see Iran go (Europe for dubious reasons), but Japan for instance is deeply concerned about the economic damage: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/06/13/japan/japan-condemn-israel-strikes/
split orchid
I would be surprised if Israel can keep up a sustained campaign that goes beyond military targets and a few refineries. It's a long way to tanker and return, with bombs needed for Gaza.
candid eagle
muted bane
https://vxtwitter.com/IhabHassane/status/1935114584999838035?t=6BqzmmPHbxjW8GkT_...
Not 100% certain, but looks like it’s a MD 500 Defender
frail halo
Not 100% certain, but looks like it’s a MD 500 Defender
yeah, pretty pixelated, but the silhouette fits and the Jordanian Air Force does operate them. As far as I can tell though, the only air-to-air capability on those is stingers, which could make this the first documented stinger cruise missile kill outside of Ukraine.
astral holly
I would be surprised if Israel can keep up a sustained campaign that goes beyond...
The job in Gaza is essentially finished, with only the political task of expulsion remaining. It's hard to consider it a war front that requires much more than the weapon of starvation.
viscid nebula
Ghost plane over Iraq. Could be a technical glitch, but curious nonetheless
patent depot
What to make of this? https://x.com/aviation_intel/status/1935142965036630086?s=46
astral holly
What to make of this? https://x.com/aviation_intel/status/1935142965036630086?s=...
He's just speculating that if the US strikes Iranian targets Israel can't get to, we'd knkw by virtue of those targets being struck. I think his latest tweet is more interesting re: the tankers. They may be just for letting Israel accelerate the bombing camapign. But would they really need that many?
winter agate
I would look for those strikes, plus major power outages in Tehran and other cities across the country. Good chance electrical grids will get hit, directly or indirectly.
Or a massive rerouting of air and naval traffic W, N and S of the straight.
floral jetty
it’s not happening tonight
usually presidents make a speech before major combat operations re bush in 03
hollow imp
I swear I saw something about Iran launching something tonight that will shock the west
deep pumice
Just as additional information for Israel - Jordan - Egypt. The Levant Gas fields have temporarily stopped LNG exports (included to Jordan) and Egypt has now slowly begun slowly sending LNG to Jordan. Not too sure what Israel is receiving right now as the gas field are beyond their coastline but would keep an eye out on even LNG exports, boats and current market impacts https://jordantimes.com/news/local/energy-supply-remains-stable-uninterrupted-despite-temporary-suspension-of-natural-gas-exports-minister
patent depot
I swear I saw something about Iran launching something tonight that will shock t...
Another statement also said it was going to be the biggest event in a century. Only small barrages today. Isreal claims to have taken out half of their launchers.
hollow imp
And it allegedly came from iranian state media
deep pumice
I swear I saw something about Iran launching something tonight that will shock t...
there were a few correspondences that the Iranians, Israeli's and Trump have said. Could be psychological warfare on just all fronts atm with these claims
hollow imp
Ah okay
lapis berry
usually presidents make a speech before major combat operations re bush in 03
Given his usual tactics I would only expect a post. Followed by crowing in the AM
patent depot
https://x.com/alarabiya_brk/status/1935168818923364643?s=46 US officials tell WSJ: no decisions made during NSC
astral holly
I swear I saw something about Iran launching something tonight that will shock t...
I believe it was their Fattah hypersonic, used for the first time. Nothing to write home about tbh.
neon pawn
It's not apparent that the drive towards regime change in Iran was really motiva...
an islamofacist regime thats massive state sponsor of terrorism thats commiting to unaliving all jews is a good motivator for israel.
The epstein tapes are good enough motivator for the orange makeuped fellow. (speculation)
Also incidentally, iran is a major russian partner a huge ordinance supplier in the ukranian war. The orange man can sell this to the war hawks and put a dint in iranian-russian logistical partnership, make his son and law and other connections happy.
plush nymph
an islamofacist regime thats massive state sponsor of terrorism thats commiting ...
came here for facts, not for epstein tapes
deep pumice
an islamofacist regime thats massive state sponsor of terrorism thats commiting ...
Please stick to reporting information in this channel, we don't need analysis on the situation
rose sedge
rose sedge
iron shell
I believe it was their Fattah hypersonic, used for the first time. Nothing to wr...
From other threads on here, it seems like there has already been debris found that is consistent with the Fattah-1 missile, but the answers to my "hypersonic" question were excellent and worth a read -
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines message
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines message
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines message
hot python
an islamofacist regime thats massive state sponsor of terrorism thats commiting ...
Hi! Please take some time to look around the server before posting, plus to read this pinned post: #1228798424875270196 message
rigid light
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1935240567027360044 back on topic i guess
Interestingly enough, RUSI has the range of the Hermes 900 at 1000+km - which would put the launch site around Western Iraq
zinc spear
Unbelievable. I remember that /r/iran was a major pro-democracy sub back in 2020.
https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/comments/1lcvs98/warning_riran_is_operated_by_islamic_republic/
minor nest
I have gone through and deleted posts that were just insults or screenshots without links, when items could clearly be linked. Please review the #rules and keep this server an informative place.
patent depot
astral holly
https://gottheimer.house.gov/posts/release-gottheimer-bell-lead-bipartisan-letter-calling-on-trump-administration-to-coordinate-evacuation-plans-for-americans-in-israel
Bipartisan call to evacuate US citizens from Israel (overall, comprise more than 2% of Israel's population)
patent depot
https://x.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/status/1935335792064311308
“A word from president trump”
Update: trump is speaking now, go to live feed
patent depot
Asked what his "unconditional surrender!" post meant for Iran, Trump says: "Very simple -- unconditional surrender. That means I've had it. I've had it. I give up, no more. Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there. They had bad intentions. You know, for 40 years they've been saying, death to America, death to Israel, death to anybody else that they didn't like. They were bullies. They were schoolyard bullies, and now they're not bullies anymore." ︀︀He was speaking on White House south lawn at new flag pole installation.
lapis berry
In reference to the “doomsday plane” landing at Andrews AFB
https://www.threads.com/@eddiesgourmetkitchen/post/DLCuCHXu8if
astral holly
Fiery Twitter diplomacy from Iran
https://fxtwitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1935348349386801556
FxTwitter
lapis berry
“The ultimate ultimatum”
While he watched his flag poles go up.
celest ridge
https://fixupx.com/fab_hinz/status/1935379300733112438?t=dApSxeQ23yJOKhXnlAQmrA&s=19
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/06/israels-attack-and-the-limits-of-irans-missile-strategy/
obtuse raft
Just as additional information for Israel - Jordan - Egypt. The Levant Gas field...
Bazan (oil refinery) is a TASE traded company (see here: #1228798424875270196 message). As such it reports to the TASE which you can also follow.
There one brief disclosure in Eng from June 16, and with more details in Heb, from June 16-18
Eng: https://maya.tase.co.il/en/reports/companies?companyId=259
Heb: https://maya.tase.co.il/he/reports/companies?companyId=259
cinder plaza
Iranian government A340 and A310 aircraft landed in Muscat Oman today.
Is there still a chance of talks?
nimble forge
I geolocated the claimed remote spike equipment: https://x.com/fdov21/status/1935414454776381480
clear hull
https://x.com/jasonmbrodsky/status/1935398660319084938
do not have the ability to fact-check this but it's not the first report regarding anti-regime sentiment within Iran, in case someone is focusing on that (I don't believe this counts as disinfo ?)
X
candid eagle
wintry seal
good god
https://vxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1934636726598959377
I think the original video is coming from https://www.instagram.com/p/DK-Cc5NOjOg/
Instagram
upbeat edge
Unexpected blood about a minute into that one. yikes.
minor nest
I checked for gore and there's blood on the speaker's hands
barren brook
https://fxtwitter.com/Polymarket/status/1935448595378909355 [lmk if this is too spurious - sharing as it may be an open source indicator]
FxTwitter
brittle fulcrum
this is only an indicator of what the crypto bros think
dusky prism
it's hardly an indicator of anything, as you can not verifably extrapolate any data from this
placid osprey
https://x.com/web3isgreat/status/1935354941234716737 Israel-sympathetic hackers steal and destroy $90M from Iranian Nobitex exchange.
The source from an investigation blog: https://www.elliptic.co/blog/iranian-crypto-exchange-nobitex-hacked-pro-israel-group
X
queen comet
Has anyone heard anything about cyberattacks impacting communication in Iran? I have a friend who claims that they (in US, Iranian descent) cannot communicate with family members in Iran due to some kind of cyberattack.
placid osprey
Has anyone heard anything about cyberattacks impacting communication in Iran? I ...
https://bsky.app/profile/radar.cloudflare.com/post/3lrv55cxsb222
You can see yourself here: https://radar.cloudflare.com/ir
placid osprey
https://x.com/lookner/status/1935509426460655699
OG: https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1935508814272352287
IDF orders evacuation near a heavy water reactor (34.368958, 49.240749)
X
deep pumice
New wave of missiles launched at Tel-Aviv and 1 landed in South Negav https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1935558224083636603
https://x.com/Palestinahoy01/status/1935559029960413369
4 videos in this tweet:
https://x.com/Ahmed_hassan_za/status/1935560439938896155
https://x.com/war_noir/status/1935559651719811201
X
X
X
X
Looks like its the first time Iran launches barrage during the day too
potent lion
obtuse raft
New wave of missiles launched at Tel-Aviv and 1 landed in South Negav https://x....
In the 3rd tweet, the one with the 4 videos, 3 of them are from Soroka hospital in Beersheba (in the Negev/Naqab), not Tel Aviv. It’s all over the Israeli media
rain current
Looks like its the first time Iran launches barrage during the day too
This is incorrect, there have been multiple daylight launches since Friday
obtuse raft
rain current
Just to back up with some evidence https://t.me/tzevaadomm/40143 https://t.me/tzevaadomm/40086 https://t.me/tzevaadomm/39989
obtuse raft
Just to back up with some evidence https://t.me/tzevaadomm/40143 https://t.me/tz...
They also have an English channel
https://t.me/tzevaadom_en
rain current
They also have an English channel
https://t.me/tzevaadom_en
Huh I didn't know that, thanks
modern finch
astral holly
https://x.com/sethharpesq/status/1935447139246817700 Shocked that META and similar firms are still allowed in Iran.
X
woven hound
https://x.com/sethharpesq/status/1935447139246817700 Shocked that META and simil...
WhatsApp, which is owned by Meta, is one of the world’s most popular messaging services. It said in the statement that it does not track users’ precise location, nor does it monitor the messages people are sending one another. “We do not provide bulk information to any government,” the statement said.
that does sound like a direct addressing of the allegations tbh
astral holly
the other image in the tweet highlights the terms, the word "bulk" is the issue
woven hound
yeah, but note how he intentionally doesn’t highlight the allegation about communications being sent to israel bcos it would draw attention to the fact WhatsApp specifically denied it
he highlights “last known location” in the allegations and the response that WhatsApp does not give “precise” location as well as “bulk” information. but last known location and precise are very likely to be one and the same, and “bulk” would cover the imprecise location information
he’s treating “we don’t collect your precise location, we don’t give bulk information to any government” as if they don’t refute the allegations of “they collect your location and they give it to israel”, which is silly. they pretty clearly do
maybe WhatsApp is lying, I’d be open to believing that (though I would need evidence). but Seth is clearly doing some sleight of hand to try and pretend that WhatsApp isn’t denying an allegation they very clearly are denying
astral holly
strange, I'm reading it quite differently. I don't think that last known location would necessarily be precise (different levels of tracking on smartphones), and the bigger issue with the statement is that they don't need to give it to a government, only a firm that serves a government. though Harp doesn't highlight that, the statement doesn't seem to be definitive refutation.
there is no evidence that I've seen, but the suspicion and accussation seem to be contradicted by Iran allowing Whatsapp services in their country and even letting officials use it.
muted bane
he’s treating “we don’t collect your precise location, we don’t give bulk inform...
Yep, OPSEC wise: why would the Mossad force Meta to give them exact location data on a potential target individual and risk blowing the operation. When they just have some shell company buy a bunch of metadata associated with a targeted individual.
muted bane
Also update regarding the tanker collision.
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/accidents/front-eagle-collision-not-related-to-iran
astral holly
Yep, OPSEC wise: why would the Mossad force Meta to give them exact location da...
It's actually not clear that Meta and similar firms do not pass info on to US intel community or allow them backdoors. There is also a significant revolving-door issue with former Israeli military-tech personnel working in these firms. It could explain in part Israel's stunning intelligence success over the past decade.
Recent instance: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/google-playing-fire-acquiring-israeli-company-founded-unit-8200-veterans
marsh bison
X
astral holly
"The cowardly Iranian dictator sits in the depths of the fortified bunker and fires aimed shots at hospitals and residential buildings in Israel.
These are war crimes of the most serious kind - and Khamenei will be held accountable for his crimes.
The Prime Minister and I have instructed the IDF to increase the intensity of attacks against strategic targets in Iran and against government targets in Tehran in order to remove threats to the State of Israel and undermine the ayatollahs' regime."
https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1935588198505173249
brittle fulcrum
Al Udeid still looks empty as of today (Sentinel 1 images)
glass plaza
So far what I have seen, the tanker collision and fire the other day did not appear to be due to Iranian involvement correct?
brittle fulcrum
So far what I have seen, the tanker collision and fire the other day did not app...
yep i think that have been confirmed
glass plaza
Anyone have any KMLs off all the strikes by both sides? thinking of making one myself
brittle fulcrum
Anyone have any KMLs off all the strikes by both sides? thinking of making one m...
glass plaza
Yeah thats what made me wonder if there was exportable/manipulatable data
frail halo
Almost all helicopters from the Badr AB near Isfahan have been moved
do you know how this imagery is taken with? seems like an effective tool
brittle fulcrum
Yes, it's sentinel-1, it's open source data, it looks weird like this because it's SAR imagery, think like a radar boucing waves instead of visible light reflecting
brittle fulcrum
Almost all helicopters from the Badr AB near Isfahan have been moved
maybe one of those was destroyed on Isfahan Nuclear Research facility's heliport? looks too big to be a helicopter, maybe a big crater?
plush nymph
X
somber obsidian
frail halo
https://insights.planet.com/analyze/browser/?zoom=5&lat=27.39069&lng=46.4502&the...
i’m not at my computer so I can’t open this right now (i forgot my planet password oops), but I was interested in which index was used
brittle fulcrum
i’m not at my computer so I can’t open this right now (i forgot my planet passwo...
dm
astral holly
Something I really don't understand about the current escalation dynamic and the overall discussion about this conflict. Why is there so much focus on the US entering the war to destroy Fordow and Natanz? Can't Israel, with open-ended access to Iranian airspace and US refueling and munitions supporting them, simply collapse the entrances and other surface infrastructure, and then attack at will whenever Iran tries to fix the facilities, dig new entrances or try to salvage equipment from down there? Also, aren't the facilities a known quantity due to the IAEA and JCPOA inspection regime? If Iran were to further enrich and try to weaponize, why would it be at either?
brittle fulcrum
warped cedar
Something I really don't understand about the current escalation dynamic and the...
Esp with Trumps admin, decisions like this have a bunch of rooted camps around it that all jockey for the attention (same as with other things just a hyper refined subject of focus here). There's a decent possibility that's just a pocket idea from one of the pro-confrontation groups that hasn't really thought it out further.
placid osprey
https://x.com/lookner/status/1935509426460655699
OG: <https://x.com/AvichayAdra...
https://x.com/osc_london/status/1935685553787146319
https://fxtwitter.com/manniefabian/status/1935750482326114799
X
plush nymph
Not yet, beware of that account
obtuse raft
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines message
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines message
royal kite
Thanks - missed that. Will remove mine.
placid osprey
Not yet, beware of that account
Which account?
plush nymph
Which account?
Opensourceintel
rigid light
X
safe bobcat
That "two weeks" joke is getting old.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-will-make-iran-decision-within-two-weeks-wh-2088117
muted bane
yep i think that have been confirmed
Probably gonna to be best to move this conversation into the Maritime channel, as oh boy it gets spicy.
random lily
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lryfp5izys2i
The US does not have a non-first-strike nuclear policy. Saying nothing at all would still count as "not ruling out nuclear weapons." I'd be interested to see the wording/claimed source that Fox used for this, but either way, "not ruled out" is just a restatement of the US's normal nuclear strike policies and (aside from some pretty extreme extenuating circumstances) does not mean much of anything.
rain eagle
Infrastructure Week first. Then Iran War Week.
dawn osprey
https://fxtwitter.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1935910327448752341/en
https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1935913011991953515
https://fxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1935913108075147627
rose sedge
deep pumice
X
deep pumice
im not sure how to validate this information, maybe the satellite pros here can help https://x.com/EGYOSINT/status/1935455319527735723
X
astral holly
https://x.com/mahamyahya/status/1936018283527909602 Credible threats to Gaza-fy Tehran. Israel already invoked the "Dahiya doctrine" (euphemism for so-called strategic bombing)
X
balmy cliff
im not sure how to validate this information, maybe the satellite pros here can ...
The two most easterly large aircraft look more like C-17s to me than B-52s, but the quality of the image means that it's not a high confidence assessment.
ionic sky
https://x.com/shbesfand/status/1935767159390589403
These are published by state owned entities so take that how you will
rigid light
https://vxtwitter.com/schlijperisrael/status/1936058027385536596 is it just me or they used a pair of tamirs (iron dome interceptors) for this? trajectory doesn't look like arrow-3 or david's sling
native iron
obtuse raft
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/709771086228619337/1385305501444...
Apparently another cluster munition
https://fxtwitter.com/itayblumental/status/1936067779418792043/en
slate spade
https://vxtwitter.com/schlijperisrael/status/1936058027385536596 is it just me o...
It LOOKS like there was actual ordinance detonation to kill the incoming missile - which would rule out Arrow-3/THAAD/David's Sling, right?
celest ridge
It LOOKS like there was actual ordinance detonation to kill the incoming missile...
Arrow-2 has a blast/frag warhead, but yes the Arrow-3/Thaad/David's sling are all kinetic hit-to-kill
tranquil saddle
https://vxtwitter.com/schlijperisrael/status/1936058027385536596 is it just me o...
It seems that Israel is using older interceptors that have a higher possibility of failing, either improper targeting or doing 180° turns
frozen tinsel
Are there sources that tell us an estimate of how many interceptors they're supplied with? I'm asking because I want to understand if the use of older interceptors is normal or a sign of limited equipment supplies
rigid light
It seems that Israel is using older interceptors that have a higher possibility...
It could be they're using Tamir (Iron Dome) projectiles which are less accurate when targeting MRBMs (they're made for short range rockets and mortars) but are still effective
wispy dawn
It could be they're using Tamir (Iron Dome) projectiles which are less accurate ...
Are they effective for that though? That should be well outside the capabilities they’re designed for.
rigid light
Are they effective for that though? That should be well outside the capabilities...
Iirc the marketing number was 6% pK, seeing the video seems like it can do the job when necessary
Also Horowitz posted that sometimes they use it in conjunction with other ABMs to take down debris (although this video appears to show only Tamirs in action)
tranquil saddle
Israel is running out of Arrow and THAAD interceptors it seems, those are the more expensive anti ballistic missile systems.
That means also that tamir and stunner interceptors have to now run those defenses.
That doesn’t explain the increased rate of more catastrophic missile failures.
rigid light
X
frozen tinsel
Is there a military balance / etc study that estimates the number of active launchers they have? 44 launchers could be a lot or barely a dent
I had heard estimated that there were tens of thousands of missiles, though only a small percentage are MRBMs. I don't know if that's particularly meaningful because like, thousands of Grad missiles for ex. can make it easy to claim a huge arsenal
Israel estimates they hit 2/3rds, obviously mileage may vary with that source
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-estimates-it-has-hit-two-thirds-of-irans-missile-launchers-official/
https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Iranian-Ballistic-Missile-Estimates-2025-6-16.pdf
There's a decent report there that suggests that they had around 2k ballistic missiles at the outset of the conflict, presumably many were lost before they were launched
Edit again to answer my own question; 360 launchers appears to be the consensus
I'm mostly asking if anyone else knows better about all of this just because if these estimates are correct, Iran doesn't have the force replenishment required to sustain these sorts of barrages
deep pumice
Allegedly Iranian drone flying over Haifa was shot down. I say allegedly because its just a fireball falling to the water in the night thats showing in the clip https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1936165027938975977
X
Another bad angle in the replies, I cant find news about this anywhere to confirm so might just be mis-info. Let me know if anyone is able to confirm, im happy to delete
lucid escarp
https://x.com/elmustek/status/1936152276122337765
is this guy reliable? never seen him before. those are some important numbers
rigid light
is this guy reliable? never seen him before. those are some important numbers
Elmustek helps Jakub with Oryx - I know he mostly authored report on equipment losses in syria
lucid escarp
tyvm
solar cairn
Allegedly Iranian drone flying over Haifa was shot down. I say allegedly because...
Well, there was a barrage of aerial explosions audible from the general direction of the Haifa Bay at that approximate time, but no sirens. Iron Dome sounded a lot like that previously, so the UAV hunt is plausible.
But Israel has shot down a curious number of its own UAVs over the period from 7th October, so here's that
brittle fulcrum
Parchin Military complex hit, teleghan-2 is in frame but untouched, was hit last december for allegedly being part of the nuclear program
placid osprey
https://fxtwitter.com/alishamkhani_ir/status/1936256295796969866/en Advisor to Khamenei that was targeted on first days.
FxTwitter
balmy cliff
B-2s are possibly enroute.
https://x.com/hntrbrkmedia/status/1936287708105654616
X
prime shore
B-2s are possibly enroute.
https://x.com/hntrbrkmedia/status/1936287708105654616
This smells like BS to me. I can't think of a logical reason a B2 taking off from Whiteman would need to aerial refuel over Wichita.
modern finch
I'm not certain where to put this, but I think this article is really interesting on this more out-there type of psychological warfare, especially in light of the communication cuts in Iran
dim nova
Replying to article above, a quote therein;
Elon Musk said he has activated his satellite internet provider Starlink in Iran, where a small number of people are believed to have the system, even though it is illegal. Authorities are urging the public to turn in neighbors with the devices as part of an ongoing spy hunt. Others have illegal satellite dishes, granting them access to international news.
Bit of a strange piece to put in there with no context when Musk and Starlink might coordinate that usage with godforbid anything.
plush nymph
Replying to article above, a quote therein;
> Elon Musk said he has activated h...
can you link the article pls
dim nova
The article immediately above, srry, reply has been goofy whenever I leave and come back to discord
plush nymph
The article immediately above, srry, reply has been goofy whenever I leave and c...
yes, with the elon musk starlink info
dim nova
Yeah good point on that, I can't actually seem to find anything on that. I've found something im maybe willing to link to. Is the Economic Times not awful? Its not pretty
plush nymph
Yeah good point on that, I can't actually seem to find *anything* on that. I've ...
when you give us a quote it would be very nice to link the source you have it from
dim nova
You're right, and my comment was not pertinent to this particular channel. My apologies.
brittle fulcrum
This smells like BS to me. I can't think of a logical reason a B2 taking off fro...
it's real, ATC called it MYTEE21
https://fixupx.com/thenewarea51/status/1936281319895433481
Lot of runways bombed? in today's sar data, Oghab 44, Bandar Abbas Airport, and yesterday, Konarak Airport
maybe it's actually a plane from Oghab44, since it's only one dot on the runway
in Konarak airport on june 20, nothing at 6:42, 4 dots at 14:08 (UTC). Must be bombs right?
brittle fulcrum
here is a verified strike on a runway for reference, the dot is not as clean, i'm doubting myself now
deep pumice
Sharing this here and to the #aviation as this might be the B-2's flying to the middle east for the bombing in Iran https://x.com/thenewarea51/status/1936391071430308207
X
rain zealot
Sharing this here and to the <#1319318313519812619> as this might be the B-2's f...
Perhaps an ignorant question, but weren't there already B-2's stationed in Diego Garcia? (https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/middleeast/us-b2-bombers-diego-garcia-intl-hnk-ml) If so, why fly more over?
bold onyx
Perhaps an ignorant question, but weren't there already B-2's stationed in Diego...
They returned about a month later: https://x.com/AirmanMagazine/status/1925578808737812682
X
minor nest
Looks like cautious legacy media agrees
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/heres-the-latest?smid=url-share&smid=nytcore-android-share
Several U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers appeared to have taken off from a base in the United States and were headed across the Pacific, as President Trump was set to return to the White House on Saturday afternoon to meet with his national security team on whether to join Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.
Flight tracker data showed the B-2 aircraft, which can carry the 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs Mr. Trump is considering deploying against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities in Fordo, taking off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri.
prime glen
yes, with the elon musk starlink info
This is in the AP article under the section “Trying new ways to contact relatives”
prime glen
yes, with the elon musk starlink info
(I assume this is what you were asking)
astral holly
There is a big scare about Israel proclaiming that they hit Bushehr nuclear power plant on the Persian Gulf, then retracting the claim. I haven't seen satellite imagery evidence that they actually hit it, but its all over the news due to widespread contamination risk.
prime glen
There is a big scare about Israel proclaiming that they hit Bushehr nuclear powe...
I see news from two days ago with Israel saying they hadn’t, do you mean there is something more recent?
brittle fulcrum
There is a big scare about Israel proclaiming that they hit Bushehr nuclear powe...
next sentinel-2 pass over it in 9 hours but yeah it was claimed on june 19
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-it-struck-nuclear-sites-including-bushehr-gulf-coast-2025-06-19/
snow rock
deep pumice
minor nest
I think this is the right space for it (putting on my mod hat). I'll redirect conversations about it to here, if they start up.
true goblet
https://vxtwitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1936572822068908283
I'm interested in this
tranquil saddle
Time to wait for the Iranian response to this, if they strike US bases in the region it could lead to further escalation.
somber obsidian
https://vxtwitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1936572822068908283
Is there any confirmation on this? as it seems to be out of nowhere, with no outside intel supporting it
static gale
I think this is the right space for it (putting on my mod hat). I'll redirect co...
For now I suppose. We need to see what the fallout (no pun intended) will be from other states
olive yacht
Time to wait for the Iranian response to this, if they strike US bases in the re...
I'm not sure Iran can strike US bases in the region. Supposedly Israel has depleted most of their missile capacity
minor nest
Yes, for now
somber obsidian
true goblet
Need something other than "Trump says.."
olive yacht
the President of the United States said it. That's confirmation it happened. And now Israeli officials are chiming in too
static gale
Will there be any word from USA sources on the type of bombs used?
tranquil saddle
I'm not sure Iran can strike US bases in the region. Supposedly Israel has deple...
Iran had a stockpile of 2000 missiles before the conflict started, and could potentially have up to a thousand left.
They also have a larger stockpile of drones, something that U.S. base’s air defenses have more difficulty defending against.
deep pumice
Usually when there is a strike like 4 hours ago, there would be immediate reports internally in Iran. I can't seem to see anything in the last few minutes
true goblet
I'm not sure Trump is always a reliable source, is my point
deep pumice
X
muted bane
strong rock
Why is there a reported Barak Ravid post about this on Truth Social but he hasn't posted it on his Blue Sky or X account when I look there?
muted bane
somber obsidian
Why is there a reported Barak Ravid post about this on Truth Social but he hasn'...
true goblet
Usually when there is a strike like 4 hours ago, there would be immediate report...
a few minutes is a long time to go w/o any visual evidence
deep pumice
War monitor so not sure how verifiable this is, but based off even trump tweeting this might be the case https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1936575879020167399
marble locust
(Will replace w/ Reuters link when that pops up.)
(It half popped up? Watch for updates to this one.)
minor nest
Right now everything is just text or different people repeating what trump said. I'm surprised there's no imagery
slate spade
Right now everything is just text or different people repeating what trump said....
With all the posts lately about Hegseth being out of the room for discussions, combined with who he has running Public Affairs...I'm not expecting a well-prepared media communication tonight.
olive yacht
feels like a pointless question but has anyone seen a legal justification for the strike put forward? Seems to be outside what AUMF allows.
minor nest
Just a reminder to be careful of your clicks and imagery being uploaded - the internet will begin recycling old footage. If you're not sure how to verify, screenshot the first frame of a video and Google reverse image search.
minor nest
With all the posts lately about Hegseth being out of the room for discussions, c...
I'm looking for Iranian civilians posting, not Hegseth
muted bane
Just a reminder to be careful of your clicks and imagery being uploaded - the in...
Not trying to make a joke, but prepare for a lot of ARMA and other war video games being used as “proof” online
deep pumice
Syrian flight from Aleppo on an interesting flight path, with no destination. Not sure if this is even related to whats occuring now, but if the bombings are real then airspaces over the levant may be at high risk right now of Iranian retaliation of Israel and American assets across the region
marble locust
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump
NYT Live thread
frozen tinsel
upbeat edge
Seeing a report that Trump will address the nation at 10PM EDT.
somber obsidian
marble locust
Aren't the B2 still in the air leaving from Guam though?
Gotta be different bombers, right?
muted bane
Gotta be different bombers, right?
Yeah, wouldn’t surprise me if the Guam Transfer was a faint
deep pumice
Trumps Address to the Nation is in 2 hours for those in different timezones
minor nest
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump
NYT Live thread
Here's a gift link https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump?unlocked_article_code=1.Q08.1ocM.Vy0NFltXwZOV&smid=nytcore-android-share
olive yacht
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump
NYT Live thread
nytimes finally getting the war it wants
cedar loom
BREAKING: President Trump to address the nation at 10 PM ET after the US strikes Iranian nuclear sites. Source: Kobeissi Letter
minor nest
Here's a gift link https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-tru...
This is the only new information:
Three senior Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said that they believed American forces had bombed Fordo and Natanz at around 2.30 a.m. in Iran.
A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information, said that multiple B-2 bombers carried out the strikes.
static gale
BREAKING: President Trump to address the nation at 10 PM ET after the US strikes...
That's in just over an hour and a half's time
strong rock
Have we gotten all the civilian Americans out of Israel that were looking to get out last time I heard yesterday? Seems a relevant question right now since this seems to be true. Last I heard the US was still working on a plan
minor nest
Hey all, reminder that we need links, not screenshots, and we've seen Trump's Truth Social multiple times. Check before posting.
muted bane
Hey all, reminder that we need links, not screenshots, and we've seen Trump's Tr...
Can we pin this
cedar loom
REP. THOMAS MASSIE CALLS TRUMP’S STRIKES ON IRAN UNCONSTITUTIONAL
minor nest
REP. THOMAS MASSIE CALLS TRUMP’S STRIKES ON IRAN UNCONSTITUTIONAL
Links
static gale
This is the only new information:
Three senior Iranian officials, speaking on co...
And that was just under an hour and a half ago
gilded widget
2024-2025 Iran / Israel and United States Clashes (NO MEMES)
minor nest
Please provide a link
upbeat edge
That's in just over an hour and a half's time
If I'm doing this correctly, this should display for everyone's local time: <t:1750557600>
cedar loom
Links
[From X Massie posts] (https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1936574721312923803)
past knot
I'm not sure Iran can strike US bases in the region. Supposedly Israel has deple...
Doesn't Iran have a stockpile of shorter range missiles than those it used against Israel?
wheat ridge
https://x.com/global_mil_info/status/1936581083727822976?s=46&t=XrxCNEeSR3Y7yx4ohKLHeg | Can anyone confirm these statements - especially the mention of strikes against naval assets?
hot python
[From X Massie posts] (https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1936574721312923803)
You are supposed to copy the link to your source and paste it here.
true goblet
That's been posted already. How about confirming its geolocation?
deep pumice
https://x.com/ILRedAlert/status/1936581399571472797?t=UP9jDT2Svj_NpF2T1519XQ the "citing a source" makes this super unverifiable. Take with a grain of salt for now
olive yacht
Iran International is citing Reuters who's citing the President. Aside from these grainy images nothing has come out yet https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506220770
wheat ridge
That's been posted already. How about confirming its geolocation?
I posted another version from a different poster - using the second post as confirmation. I'll look into geo right now, though.
true goblet
I am listening to NBC News live and they have not presented any evidence so far....
prime glen
Dumb question: why would US/Israel lie about hitting Iran?
olive yacht
looking at a bbc map of Fordow and I'm struggling to see where this might be located
minor nest
I posted another version from a different poster - using the second post as conf...
Geo is great. Sometimes people just all repeat each other, which isn't necessarily independent confirmation. We're looking forward to seeing if you can find anything out
wheat ridge
looking at a bbc map of Fordow and I'm struggling to see where this might be loc...
34°53'04.2"N 50°59'53.2"E | Already known, taken from Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant]
zenith minnow
I am listening to NBC News live and they have not presented any evidence so far....
evidence for what? I just joined in this thread
true goblet
evidence for what? I just joined in this thread
US bombing Iran nuclear sites
marble locust
https://x.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1936583052093796639
(I trust Oliver with a lot tbh. [He's also in this server aint he? don't ping em plz.])
brittle fulcrum
If we somehow dont get any visual confirmation before, the sentinel images will start to come out in less than 7 hours and will cover Natanz and Isfahan
minor nest
I expect stuff from Firms too
olive yacht
BBC live thread has a video of several distant explosions. but the time of day seems to be wrong. unless sunrise is at 3:50 in Fordow https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ckg3rzj8emjt
minor nest
Small recap for those joining is that we have Trump's post, unnamed US government sources, and 3 unnamed Iranian sources saying the bombing occurred.
calm shale
wheat ridge
https://fixupx.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1936583102450848250?t=IHV8o98b9vdUIrgnt...
Thanks for spotting that - I'll delete the posts to prevent confusion!
static gale
BBC live thread has a video of several distant explosions. but the time of day s...
I've noticed the watch live video feed on that site keeps repeating stuff from hours ago/during the night. Changing anchors, and formats of news (either TV or radio etc) sometimes mid conversation.
olive yacht
deep pumice
Not sure how to verify this, but it lines up with reports in the last few days regarding Iran moving their stockpiles around https://fixupx.com/SaeedAzimi1772/status/1936583798969274550
frail halo
https://aje.io/819lk2?update=3790631 supposedly Trump was looking for a single strike solution and not to “join” the conflict. not sure if that’s really under American control at this stage.
edit: not sure if link is working, but relevant update was from 00:30 GMT by Kimberly Halkett
wheat ridge
Does anyone know if any sats are tasked for fordow rn?
subtle horizon
Does anyone know if any sats are tasked for fordow rn?
Most certainly
Its 4 AM there so we're gonna have to wait a new hours at least for them to come out
muted bane
Its 4 AM there so we're gonna have to wait a new hours at least for them to come...
If you know the exact Satalite, here you go for tracking.
deep pumice
Not official Iranian account since they're all banned from X but might be worth checking the commercial ships in the Strait https://x.com/A_M_R_M1/status/1936575936448897066?t=6WTE42W1j9wpXcq8nXWWAg
cedar loom
US military now briefing troops that its strike on Iran "will likely result in counterstrikes on US bases and facilities" in the Middle East, and "likely activate Iran and other foreign terrorist organizations cells abroad including the US to conduct strikes against US persons and facilities," according to briefing I obtained. Source: Independent Journalist Ken Klippenstein https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1936585741456244801
wheat ridge
Can anyone confirm this? https://x.com/RT_com/status/1936586795405410707
X
wheat ridge
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/1936587959370752102 | Can somebody confirm geo?
pine totem
[post deleted]^
calm shale
Beware videos from Ukraine floating around claiming to be the Fordow strike
It was 230am in Iran and internet is still mostly out. Probably won't be much if any footage from the ground for a while. We'll probably see released footage from the US first
wheat ridge
It was confirmed to be old.
cedar loom
This is insane. Trump just bombed Iran without Congressional approval, illegally dragging us into war in the Middle East. Have we not learned our lesson!?!? Congress must return to Washington at once to vote on @RepThomasMassie ’s War Powers Resolution to stop this madness. Source: Rep. Jim McGovern https://x.com/RepMcGovern/status/1936588726072725639
wheat ridge
I saw some comments on a few posts were people said their spouses were being deployed - does anyone know if these are in any way creditable?
subtle horizon
I saw some comments on a few posts were people said their spouses were being dep...
There's going to be 1,000,000 rumours spreading online
So treat everything as that until you read actual confirmation from a relevant authority/you see hard evidence online
muted bane
Regarding Satellite Data from Fires/hotspots via NASA Firms\Worldview:
Depending on when the strikes were conducted it might of been picked up by the Aqua Satellite on it's descending/night orbit which passed over Iran area around 23:25 UTC and passed over Iraq at 00:23 UTC.
I haven't seen any recent data yet, but I don't think it has come in yet. Keeping an eye out for that.
Otherwise, the next hotspot detecting satellite that will be overhead Iran will be the Terra Satellite on it's descending/day orbit around 6 AM UTC.
deep raven
Strictly speaking this isn't a war. I haven't heard about deployments either.
Frankly not really sure why any land assets would be deploying beyond Diego Garcia.
wheat ridge
There's going to be 1,000,000 rumours spreading online
Yea, I doubt their claims are true either but I also saw a few sources, though likely not creditable, discuss that the U.S. could possibly be officially going to war with Iran; emphasis on low creditability.
olive yacht
according to BBC senator Thomas Massie is calling the strike unconstitutional.
muted bane
Yea, I doubt their claims are true either but I also saw a few sources, though l...
Technically speaking only Congress can declare war, BTW. But the presedent has had a lot of wiggle room since WW2 to conduct military strikes without approval from congress.
hot python
Declarations of war mean nothing. If you wage war, you are at war.
subtle horizon
Yea, I doubt their claims are true either but I also saw a few sources, though l...
Yeah random posts on the internet are just that
random lily
according to BBC senator Thomas Massie is calling the strike unconstitutional.
#1228798424875270196 message
deep raven
Yep this is under war powers act unilateral action.
Nothing officially out of house or senate. I imagine there will be a session shortly though
deep pumice
*This lines up with another post earlier saying the US only targetted the entrance for Fordow but again neither can be confirmed at this point https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/1936583049958895707?t=vfqWqKsFqlWXHcblg6FhVA
deep raven
*This lines up with another post earlier saying the US only targetted the entran...
Possible but not a secret that it is deep. I doubt Trump would allow anything less than overkill
wheat ridge
X
thorn plaza
*This lines up with another post earlier saying the US only targetted the entran...
TBF, surface level access points would be the main target to strike such sites.
deep pumice
Possible but not a secret that it is deep. I doubt Trump would allow anything le...
True, but If he did overkill I feel we would've had some visuals or on the ground reports much sooner from nearby towns/villages or even local officials
glass plaza
So what happens next
Iran encourages more Houthi strikes on western shipping in the Red Sea
Token missile attack on Israel (but indications are they have already burned between a fifth and a third of their entire ballistic missile stockpile)
Or. Honestly their doomsday option is attacking and locking down the Gulf and straits. It would turn everyone against them
fair sail
muted bane
So what happens next
Iran encourages more Houthi strikes on western shipping in...
You forgot the variuos Iran backed militants in and around the middle east.
wheat ridge
*This lines up with another post earlier saying the US only targetted the entran...
Also saw this
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1936591232706191715
X
hot python
This is where we all remember that we do not speculate.
glass plaza
You forgot the variuos Iran backed militants in and around the middle east.
There aren't as many though
Hebzollah hamas and Islamic jihad are uhh... degraded
They still have some in Iraq. And some support in places like Bahrain
wary shale
Also saw this
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1936591232706191715
This image is real. I just read it in the NYT mobile app’s live feed.
fair sail
https://x.com/tulsigabbard/status/1213909605706878981?s=46&t=85lHylmdFWX8pR4sVgI14w Tulsi is the current Director of Nat. Intel., correct?
muted bane
https://x.com/tulsigabbard/status/1213909605706878981?s=46&t=85lHylmdFWX8pR4sVgI...
Yep
glass plaza
And a likely russian asset lol
olive yacht
she's recently said she believes Iran is weeks away from assembling a nuclear bomb
wheat ridge
Also saw this
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1936591232706191715
This source is confirmed;
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump
upbeat edge
she's recently said she believes Iran is weeks away from assembling a nuclear bo...
I was seeing reports to the contrary this last week. When the press asked Trump why he disagrees with Gabbard he said she was wrong.
chrome yew
If the goal was destroying the entry points to the sites then israel could have done that themselves right? I doubt you need to mobilize b2s to do that.
wheat ridge
Also this 👀
[Text:
Farnaz Fassihi | United Nations bureau chief for the NYT
A news anchor said on Iranian state television, “Mr. Trump, you started it and we will end it.” The broadcast showed a large graphic of American bases in the Middle East with the headline, “Within the fire range of Iran.” The anchor said the United States had no legitimate place in the region.
]
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/9dcaa73e-b4ae-5eb9-b202-5d3069dc4d8a?smid=url-share
subtle horizon
Hi everyone! A few reminders:
- Please keep this channel for sharing verified news about this conflict, or verifying news about the conflict
- Please do not clog the channel with your personal opinions or your own speculation
random lily
This source is confirmed;
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-isr...
Important to note that this is not the US Senator from Missouri, as claimed above. This is an NYT natsec correspondant.
muted bane
There aren't as many though
Hebzollah hamas and Islamic jihad are uhh... degrade...
Not trying to speculate here, but there is also Syria, don't' know how much influence Iran has in there, but yeah they are definitely the Wild Card in play since the Assad regieme has collapsed.
wheat ridge
Important to note that this is _not_ the US Senator from Missouri, as claimed ab...
Thanks for the spot; I'll edit it now. Went off previously found information.
upbeat edge
I was seeing reports to the contrary this last week. When the press asked Trump ...
I'm out of date - Gabbard reversed herself in the last day:
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-intel-tulsi-gabbard-on-iran-nuclear-weapon-trump-10080718/
deep pumice
The CBS article he's sourcing https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-launches-strikes-iranian-nuclear-facilities-trump-says/
olive yacht
The CBS article he's sourcing https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-launches-strikes-...
I was about to post this.
dawn osprey
edited
(THIS IS FROM SYRIA)
theres a very crazy video circulating on random telegram channels
99% chance its fake or not from this conflict, but i'll post just in case
not original post, but found here:
https://t.me/defender_skadovsk/67586
winter agate
edited
(THIS IS FROM SYRIA)
theres a very crazy video circulating on random tele...
Isn't this from Syria?
deep pumice
edited
(THIS IS FROM SYRIA)
theres a very crazy video circulating on random tele...
This is Syria. Weapons cache in Syria on a mountain that was bombed awhile ago. Idk if yall remember the articles that were claiming there were some radiation leaks from this but that ended up being false.
wheat ridge
Has anyone checked firms?
dawn osprey
This is Syria. Weapons cache in Syria on a mountain that was bombed awhile ago. ...
should i delete it or keep it because its really making the rounds with lack of any footage for now?
minor nest
edited
(THIS IS FROM SYRIA)
theres a very crazy video circulating on random tele...
How to do basic checking: #1228798424875270196 message
deep pumice
should i delete it or keep it because its really making the rounds with lack of ...
up to you
subtle horizon
should i delete it or keep it because its really making the rounds with lack of ...
I think its OK to keep it -- maybe edit your post and say (THIS IS FROM SYRIA) and add the original link if you can find it
muted bane
Has anyone checked firms?
#1228798424875270196 message
glass plaza
Not trying to speculate here, but there is also Syria, don't' know how much infl...
Since the fall of Al Assad i would consider Syria a non entity in terms of Iran's plans
And sorry... didn't see 'no speculation" on the list of rules so not sure what I did wrong here. Trying to approach this in a thoughtful realistic exercise of likely outcomes which seems to be in line with the purpose of this place
deep pumice
Swedish early detection plane above Saudi now. This was the same flight from a few days ago helping Israeli and Israeli allys take down drones and other missiles heading to Israel.
Could be an indicator of retaliatory strikes from Iran in very soon
minor nest
So this channel is for breaking video and imagery from the conflict. Wider discussions about regional powers should go in #middle_east-north_africa
People who want to engage in that sort of talk can chat there, whereas people actively monitoring social media etc should be here
deep pumice
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1936593676311867786 (tweet seperate to my image from flightradar below)
Also to add to the previous post on the Swedish plane over Sweden, US Stratotanker popped up over Saudi just moments ago. Could be the plane that assisted in the refueling for the strikes
glass plaza
If Jordan or KSA engages Iranian drones that's not relevant?
minor nest
If Jordan or KSA engages Iranian drones that's not relevant?
"if" goes in #middle_east-north_africa . "Is" goes in here
deep pumice
wary shale
U.S. officials claim Fordo was irreparably destroyed, and Iranian officials claiming otherwise. At this point all tweets are conjecture. We need satellite footage / other evidence.
prime glen
random lily
FIRMS does seem to indicate a fire detected near the Fordow site, detected in the 1-3hr range, if I am reading this correctly. Please correct me if I am wrong. https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:tsd;d:24hrs;@51.00,34.91,14.00z
minor nest
How about we do US reactions, and "is this an act of war/what about Congress" stuff in #usa-canada @prime glen
brittle fulcrum
FIRMS does seem to indicate a fire detected near the Fordow site, detected in th...
this the exact time of the capture
minor nest
Thanks for being flexible as we move fast!
green fern
Anyone with good Iran knowledge here who has an idea how credible this guy is? (seems to be "strategic advisor to the speaker of Iranian parliament" but this can literally mean nothing) https://x.com/mmohammadii61/status/1936588467804213369
deep pumice
https://x.com/stairwayto3dom/status/1936595643453047014 Not too sure how accurate this footage is, anyone able to geolocate or confirm the date?
X
minor nest
https://x.com/stairwayto3dom/status/1936595643453047014 Not too sure how accurat...
Have you done the reverse image search of the first frame?
deep pumice
Have you done the reverse image search of the first frame?
Because of the watermark, I'm getting clips from last week of different videos
minor nest
Because of the watermark, I'm getting clips from last week of different videos
I don't know from the quality if anyone could determine it was a US helicopter, or if it's conducting evacuations. You might be able to get Erbil from geolocation.
unkempt kelp
I don't know from the quality if anyone could determine it was a US helicopter, ...
deffo CH-47
or MH-47, Iraq doesnt operate those
rotund blaze
this the exact time of the capture
I can't click on the red square to get more info? Anyone know why?
brittle fulcrum
@random lily @rotund blaze if you click this and then click advanced mode, you can click on detected squares to get more info (shoutout for JTDailyupdate for teaching me two days ago)
muted bane
this the exact time of the capture
Speaking About FIRMS.
Don't know if there is anything of note at this location, but I'm seeing a lot of hot spot detections all from the same location from instruments onboard NOAA 21, NOAA 22 and Suomi NPP.
Granted some of that data is a couple of hours old, and most likely before the strikes.
minor nest
Speaking About FIRMS.
Don't know if there is anything of note at this location, ...
Was it a hot spot a few months ago (eg, ongoing industrial processes) or popped up recently?
wheat ridge
X
glass plaza
or MH-47, Iraq doesnt operate those
Mh has a big fuel boom on the front but can't tell in that dark grainy footage
muted bane
Was it a hot spot a few months ago (eg, ongoing industrial processes) or popped ...
Looking back at the playback, it's looks like it started a couple of days ago.
Still something of note
vapid whale
Speaking About FIRMS.
Don't know if there is anything of note at this location, ...
You can check whether seasonality has a play in these hotspots, and cut it
quartz viper
Because of the watermark, I'm getting clips from last week of different videos
The skyline is similar to Ebril, I’m noting the two large building with blue light. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEUYa1vMr3J/?igsh=MW1jNjJkaGR3MDFydA==
Instagram
unkempt kelp
I didn't scroll up so forgive me but yall saw the evacuations underway via C-17 earlier ya?
thebaldgeek on Twitter shared it from his ACARS site
Ravens in this context are USAF security personnel
deep pumice
I sent this i think about an hour ago now, From my understanding in the tweet they are flights from Iraq to Jordan
https://fixupx.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1936515109704413599
unkempt kelp
"security personnel" is doing a lot of legwork fwiw im just a tad busy
not sure if it's the same ravens but ya
unkempt kelp
I sent this i think about an hour ago now, From my understanding in the tweet th...
perf, missed that, thank you fam
I have a friend on the ground at Taji and he said a lot of flights left earlier
but idk if taji has a runway i think it's just helicopters
but that would make sense to depart to Erbil and fly outta there rather than Baghdad Intl
oh Taji has a runway nvm
snow rock
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_Forward_Air_Controllers
I think you mean this page
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Air_Force_Security_Forces
snow rock
(For context I was USAF security forces at an AMC base and we had a Raven section in our squadron) 🙂
vapid whale
Speaking About FIRMS.
Don't know if there is anything of note at this location, ...
A question out of curiosity, if the attack caused structural damage to the facility, there could be radioactive leakage, are there any satellite systems that monitors for that?
unkempt kelp
(For context I was USAF security forces at an AMC base and we had a Raven sectio...
I was genuinely hoping there'd be somebody here who knew more than me
real @grok is this true moment
dawn osprey
supposedly footage from Asfahan
https://t.me/exilenova_plus/9271
snow rock
I was genuinely hoping there'd be somebody here who knew more than me
As soon as I read the “do you have Ravens with you” from the screenshot I knew what it meant hah.
quartz viper
A question out of curiosity, if the attack caused structural damage to the facil...
https://www.openradiation.org/ Accueil | OpenRadiation
It’s in French tho
vapid whale
https://www.openradiation.org/ Accueil | OpenRadiation
It’s in French tho
Ah thanks, that will work, I can do machine translation to get some headings
true goblet
supposedly footage from Asfahan
https://t.me/exilenova_plus/9271
geolocation confirmed?
thorn plaza
https://www.openradiation.org/ Accueil | OpenRadiation
It’s in French tho
They have an english translation, they seem to rely on ground measures. Only one in Iran I could find is an atypical measure in Tehran, 137 µSv/h
https://www.openradiation.org/en/node/54
EDIT: They are old measures (2017). I wouldn't trust them to have current data.
dawn osprey
frail halo
I don't know from the quality if anyone could determine it was a US helicopter, ...
I can’t 100% confirm it’s American, but I have found pictures of American CH-47s stationed at Erbil Air Base as recently as February of this year. Not a sure fire thing tho, lots of militaries use it. https://www.dvidshub.net/image/8890580/tf-nighthawk-ch-47-takes-flight
Erbil’s ATC tower for reference, plenty of other pics to corroborate: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3405084299567646&id=100064501457377
muted bane
Don't have anything for the middle east that I could find online right now,
However I did find this site of note.
https://remon.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
minor nest
Here's some context from FR24:
https://bsky.app/profile/flightradar24.com/post/3ls5xbr3p422c
brittle fulcrum
https://www.openradiation.org/ Accueil | OpenRadiation
It’s in French tho
This one have way more stations and you can see the charts easier to check if it actually is spikes out of the ordinary
https://radmon.org/index.php
muted bane
Here's some context from FR24:
https://bsky.app/profile/flightradar24.com/post/3...
Considering what Happened in 2020 in the immediate aftermath of the US Drone Strike that killed Qasem Soleimani...
It checks out
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752
Trump is speaking right now, and going over the usual speaking points; nothing of note.
frail shoal
also on bbc http://bbc.com/news/live/ckg3rzj8emjt#player
snow rock
Well that was short. follow up presser 8am EST from Pete Hegseth.
Trump said all 3 sites were "totally and completely obliterated" (his words not mine)
minor nest
I'm going to cross post this comment to #usa-canada for domestic discussion but he is leaving open the door for more
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/4df14701-456a-59df-83a2-d699bcd6d05b?smid=url-share&smid=nytcore-android-share
Trump warns that more attacks could come. “If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill,” he says.
muted bane
Hindsight is 20/20, but I'm surprised Trump struck today; I had a gut feeling that if he was going to issue a strike on Iran, they would wait until the Gerald Ford reaches the 6th fleet.
quartz viper
Still no update to satellites that I can see, CNN ran these *CBS
brittle fulcrum
that's just the google earth sat picture
frail halo
Still no update to satellites that I can see, CNN ran these *CBS
sunrise in Tehran is right now, satellite imagery is likely on the way
minor nest
Shayan has been updating his Twitter (not Bluesky) with old footage that's going around, so check his threads to see current fakes/misattributed https://x.com/Shayan86?t=PbDgkX-4YH1YNgqcetNMBA&s=09
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1936607487286763643?t=KN_lho_w0Rj3yq1UeVelLA&s=19
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1936605772395266074?t=dvidd2a2dBE9DBpZkBS_Zg&s=19
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1936599336458019171?t=Z6tdsN9t2XG2o-rGmKuoCQ&s=19
X
X
X
X
frail halo
Shayan has been updating his Twitter (not Bluesky) with old footage that's going...
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/irans-nuclear-infrastructure-not-defeated-after-the-us-bombings-new-data-reveals-iran-vows-retaliation/articleshow/122000685.cms
Similarly:
IMAGE SHOWN HERE APPEARS TO BE FROM JANUARY. maybe this should go in disinfo, but the article was posted before sunrise in Fordow. I don’t think there’s actually any claim that the image is from today, but it is highly misleading and I didn’t want any of y’all to fall for it, especially because I’m seeing it shared.
edit: archive link because of some page not founds https://archive.ph/Y3D0n
https://apnews.com/article/bunker-buster-bomb-israel-iran-fordo-fordow-b2-nuclear-8a612cbf16aa0f99bd9992334ffc93d7# AP story citing identical image as from January (sand patterns just below right corner of building)
minor nest
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/irans-nuclear-infrastructure-n...
That link to Economic Times is giving me "page not found"
snow rock
That link to Economic Times is giving me "page not found"
it works for me 🤷♂️
vapid whale
A question out of curiosity, if the attack caused structural damage to the facil...
Found the answer to my own question: satellite monitoring of ground level radiation is impossible due to the inverse square law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse-square_law, as well as due to background radiation levels of the soil, and atmosphere absorption.
true goblet
That link to Economic Times is giving me "page not found"
not found for me either
minor nest
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/6b6a76ea-b0f2-5a3c-a0ed-a2237526dd6b?smid=url-share&smid=nytcore-android-share
By Aric, who I'm not gonna tag right now:
"The NASA fire information system detected a significant heat-generating event near the Fordo nuclear enrichment facility, with one detection about 30 minutes before President Trump announced the U.S. strikes. Often areas that are bombed or produce significant heat, such as from lasting fires, are detected. Other events, like wildfires and industrial activity, can also be picked up; however, no recent events were detected in the last month around Fordo."
slate spade
Found the answer to my own question: satellite monitoring of ground level radiat...
Background reading https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran
true goblet
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/6b6a76ea-b0f2-5a...
Soo not obliterated?
minor nest
I don't know that we'd be able to tell from FIRMS. Iranian media has downplayed it, said that materials were already moved out etc; and honestly I don't know how much we'll be able to see from satellite either, since my understanding is that a lot is underground
Please post domestic US political/governance in #usa-canada for now
frail halo
That link to Economic Times is giving me "page not found"
https://archive.ph/Y3D0n try this. archived it because I’m getting some page not founds too depending on how i access the link
placid osprey
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/8c207bd2-a110-5a39-9083-68448f29a13d (Its a live update link thingy)
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:tsd;d:24hrs;@51.01,34.91,13.01z FIRMS is up for Fordow
vapid whale
Also found that the U.S Department of Energy has a system called AMS, that uses a fleet of Beechcraft BN-350's and Bell 412's that can provide realtime air/ground radiation monitoring https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/aerial-measuring-system-ams in case of national emergencies, Japan's JAEA used a similar system for the Fukushima accident, according to this 2015 presentation on the International Civil Aviation Organization website. (it will download the presentation, so be warned) https://www.icao.int/meetings/rpas/rpassymposiumpresentation/day 1 session 2 massaki nakadate.pdf
minor nest
<https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump/8c207bd2-a110-5...
Good idea to remind everyone we're dealing with 3 sites
Here's some previous damage for context https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1936620016759169388?t=wXe8uazlnauHCFYgItqtFA&s=19
X
deep raven
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-hezbollah-says-wont-join-fight-after-us-attacks-iran-2088889
Anyone see that elsewhere?
frail halo
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-hezbollah-says-wont-join-fight-after-us-attac...
well it says exclusive, so probably not
deep raven
i wonder how Carter feels about this
frail halo
I believe the consensus was that these couldn’t have reached the target on time and instead it looks like it was a feint or to prepare for possible follow on strikes. Please correct me if I’m wrong, #aviation enjoyers
wheat ridge
https://x.com/leadingreport/status/1936598133254893688 | Posted around 2 hours ago, but I'm unsure if it was seen here.
X
vast spade
I believe the consensus was that these couldn’t have reached the target on time ...
ah will delete
minor nest
I can't find this on CNN - please provide a link
minor nest
here's the permalink https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06...
Thanks, I'm trying to get everyone in the habit of links 
prime glen
“Meanwhile, Iran said there were “no signs of contamination” at its nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordo or Natanz after U.S. airstrikes targeted the facilities.
Iranian state media quoted the country’s National Nuclear Safety System Center, which published a statement saying its radiation detectors had recorded no radioactive release after the strikes.”
thorn plaza
Title reads "No radiation detected in Gulf Arab states after US strikes, says Saudi nuclear regulator"
brittle fulcrum
vast spade
vxTwitter / fixvx
wheat ridge
I can't find this on CNN - please provide a link
vast spade
Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations has asked for an emergency Security Council meeting for what he described as the U.S.’s “heinous attacks and illegal use of force” against Iran.
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-war-updates#00000197-95eb-df0f-a9f7-dfefa2170000
vapid whale
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3ls64vwwg2t2k
If the U.S attack was able to hit the enriched uranium deposit, wouldn't that be a catastrophe in terms on soil/water contamination due to radioactive material seeping into the soil, ground water, rivers, and river sources?
Asking out of curiosity though, I'm unaware of the topology and geography of the attacked areas
wheat ridge
If the U.S attack was able to hit the enriched uranium deposit, wouldn't that be...
Accidentally sent my message, but I was going to say is that the materials were removed before the strike occurred; they have done further infield research and have confirmed that no contamination existed.
dawn osprey
vapid whale
Accidentally sent my message, but I was going to say is that the materials were ...
I see, could you provide the sources please?
brittle fulcrum
If the U.S attack was able to hit the enriched uranium deposit, wouldn't that be...
That's a tough question but without speculating about what we dont know, the underground tunnels north of Isfahan's facility that already got bombed in the previous days are located inside a mountain.
dawn osprey
wheat ridge
I see, could you provide the sources please?
Will do. Also, I forgot to specify that certain sites are suspected to be irradiated.
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/1936647981903512038
https://t.me/salehdesk1/53227
Hassan Abedini, the Iranian Broadcasting Political Deputy Director,
"Iran has evacuated three nuclear sites a while ago."
"The enriched uranium reserves have been transferred from nuclear centers, and there are no materials here that if they are attacked, they will cause radiation and be harmful to our country."
Abu Saleh Arabic Desk
https://t.me/salehdesk1
vapid whale
Will do. Also, I forgot to specify that certain sites are suspected to be irradi...
Nothing personal, but based on my analysis (which I could be wrong) I wouldn't trust that tweet. Take a look at his feed.
wheat ridge
Nothing personal, but based on my analysis (which I could be wrong) I wouldn't t...
I'll find some more; when it was first reported around 6 hours ago, there were tons of official sources. Just gotta go through my history
https://x.com/iaeaorg/status/1936650574939685121
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1936590728337011095 {Urgent Irna Agency: The nuclear sites bombed by the United States do not contain materials that can cause radiation}
https://x.com/IranNuances/status/1936626999226974538
https://x.com/redboxwire/status/1936587329038393656?s=46
brittle fulcrum
Will do. Also, I forgot to specify that certain sites are suspected to be irradi...
IAEA said for Natanz there is contamination but limited to the facilty, they say their main concern is the chemical contamination, not the radiation
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-general-grossis-statement-to-unsc-on-situation-in-iran-20-june-2025
vapid whale
That's a tough question but without speculating about what we dont know, the und...
Understandable, I've pulled up some resources of precipitation distribution and groundwater depletion (this one is from 2016 though). It would only be speculative of my part, so I can't say much.
Iran's water resource, map of yearly precipitation distribution (in milimiters) https://water.fanack.com/iran/water-resources-in-iran/
Iran's groundwater depletion map (2016) in milimiters https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-groundwater-depletion-in-Iran-in-2016_fig1_344695356
wheat ridge
https://x.com/iaeaorg/status/1936650574939685121
https://x.com/AJABreaking/statu...
However, some of these claims are now being challenged by some; unfortunately, I'm not up to date on the specifics of the refutes.
Also, does anyone know if sentinel has updated imagry over fordo? I remember hearing it would take around 6 hours around, well, 6 hours ago.
brittle fulcrum
Also, does anyone know if sentinel has updated imagry over fordo? I remember hea...
i had made a mistake when i first typed that, it will go above isfaran and natanz, not qoms region with fordo
kindred crag
X
wheat ridge
X
https://x.com/farnazfassihi/status/1936659215944167935
Also, update on irradiation:
https://x.com/SharghDaily/status/1936658283646914748
{
SharghDaily
International Atomic Energy Agency: The effects of radiation outside of Iran's nuclear centers have not increased
The International Atomic Energy Agency said after the US invasion of four Iranian nuclear centers that it could confirm that the effects of radiation outside the sites have not increased.
Source
https://x.com/SharghDaily/status/1936658283646914748
}
vapid whale
IAEA said for Natanz there is contamination but limited to the facilty, they say...
Interesting, this is a direct quote of the report:
"However, within the Natanz facility there is both radiological and chemical contamination. It is possible that Uranium isotopes contained in Uranium Hexafluoride, Uranyl Fluoride and Hydrogen Fluoride are dispersed inside the facility. The radiation, primarily consisting of alpha particles, poses a significant danger if inhaled or ingested. This risk can be effectively managed with appropriate protective measures, such as using respiratory devices. The main concern inside the facility is chemical toxicity."
Here's an interesting note about alpha radiation though:
"A rule of thumb for alpha particles in real world radiation safety is that **they travel ** 1-3 cm in air, and their penetration through other material is negligible. They are inherently more difficult to monitor for in the workplace when compared to beta, gamma and x-ray radiations.
An alpha particle would need an energy of at least 7.5 MeV in order to penetrate the protective (dead) layer of skin, which is taken to be 0.07 mm."
Source: https://ionactive.co.uk/resource-hub/guidance/distance-travelled-by-alpha-particles-in-air-and-other-materials
Based on this, I wouldn't trust news reports regarding radiation outside of the facilities (in terms of alpha radiation at least). Also what is meant by outside? 10 meters? 100 meters? 1 kilometer?
frail halo
haifa supposedly
I am struggling with geo on this. Those street lights are not very common in Haifa from what I'm seeing but they do exist and I can't figure out a rhyme or reason. Knowing that it should be morning ish in summer just above the tropic of Cancer, practically on the solstice, the shadows would suggest we're looking northwest. All the other images I'm seeing of this strike seemed to confirm that it was IVO Nordau St WSW of the Israel Railway Museum. But if we're looking northwest towards nordau street, there shouldn't be hills in the background. It looks like we're elevated on a two-way four-lane road with a small median and central guard rails. I am literally watching a youtube video of someone driving around Haifa right now in case the street view coverage is somehow failing me, but we'll see
warped stream
Would seismometers pick up the detonation of the underground explosions. I wouldn't be surprised if 6,000lbs (2,722kg) of explosives would register on a sensor somewhere within the region.
plush nymph
I am struggling with geo on this. Those street lights are not very common in Hai...
could be here 32.80863523638869, 35.01050891620837
static gale
Would seismometers pick up the detonation of the underground explosions. I would...
I checked the us geological survey this morning - nothing recorded but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a report_recording and intelligence officials nixed it
past knot
Interesting, this is a direct quote of the report:
"However, within the Natanz ...
There can be fine dust / gases / contaminated water emitting alpha particles. If radioactive material that decays through release of alpha particles is dispersed as a result of, for example, an explosion - there would not be a problem with detecting that radioactive material using dosimeters in areas where it had been dispersed, as that dispersed material will be in the air and/or on surfaces.
[in respect to detecting contamination by radioactive material, how far alpha particles travel is of not much importance, given that radioactive material itself can travel in a form of dust].
I should have just linked the relevant wiki articles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_particulate_radioactivity_monitoring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_contamination#Surface_contamination
kindred crag
X
warped stream
could be here 32.80863523638869, 35.01050891620837
You are sharp as always. I came to the same conclusion independently, then saw that you already had it figured out.
What else still needs finding?
frail halo
could be here 32.80863523638869, 35.01050891620837
this looks pretty solid. just missing some young trees, but the coverage is pretty old. i’ll check it out more in the morning US time
warped stream
this looks pretty solid. just missing some young trees, but the coverage is pret...
Sleep well
obtuse raft
Will do. Also, I forgot to specify that certain sites are suspected to be irradi...
Take it with a grain of salt. This report is considered to be a mouthpiece of Netanyahu and the Israeli government and has spread disinfo in the past.
frozen tinsel
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/money-report/iran-says-it-reserves-all-options-after-outrageous-u-s-strikes-launches-fresh-attacks-on-israel/3773413/
looks like Iran fired another wave
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-attacks-israel-after-us-strikes-nuke-sites-air-sirens-in-tel-aviv-8729617#google_vignette
obtuse raft
I am struggling with geo on this. Those street lights are not very common in Hai...
Just noting regarding your comment on the hill in the background, that Haifa is built on the Carmel mountain range which, in Haifa, raises up to over 300m above sea level (and higher. the Haifa university, in the southern most part of the city is at ~480m).
The photo, which according to @plush nymph’s geolocation, was taken at about sea level, looks over the impact site on the lower slopes of Mount Carmel, at about 90m above sea level.
sly parcel
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-war-updates#00000197-96e4-dd0d-abff-f7e44c7f0000 Planet Labs has images
muted bane
hard cape
Yesterday there was some talks and explanations asked by the opposition of the Portuguese government
https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2025-06-21-doze-avioes-militares-norte-americanos-estacionados-na-base-das-lajes-ps-exige-explicacoes-ao-governo-672da86c
(In Portuguese)
deep pumice
obtuse raft
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/money-report/iran-says-it-reserves-all-...
Seems like disinfo. I have seen no other reports or footage suggesting the airport was hit and there were no other strikes since the ones this morning, TLV time (alerts sounded at around 7:30am and again at around 8:00am local time.
https://t.me/tzevaadom_en/40694
https://t.me/tzevaadom_en/41057
At about 11:00am local time there was an announcement that the airspace is going to be reopened for repatriation flights today at 14:00. This isn’t consistent with a supposed strike hitting the airport.
https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/war-2023/2025-06-22/ty-article-live/00000197-944d-d5ef-a9bf-b7ef1f950000?liveBlogItemId=1661037829#1661037829
obtuse raft
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/money-report/iran-says-it-reserves-all-...
Also note that the NDTV title is misleading. It says the Ben Gurion airport was hit but the article cites the Iranian IRGC saying they targeted the airport, not that it was hit.
rigid light
X
muted bane
https://fixupx.com/MenchOsint/status/1936718887086961027
Here are the previous tweets he made about this, included the one that he quoted but the image didn’t embed.
Here they are:
https://fixupx.com/menchosint/status/1936701604331131296?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw
https://fixupx.com/menchosint/status/1936701618541527269?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw
bold onyx
glass rampart
X
split orchid
If the U.S attack was able to hit the enriched uranium deposit, wouldn't that be...
400 kg of HEU is really no big deal. It's marginally more radioactive than the natural uranium that comes out of the ground.
Iran already has some of the most naturally radioactive areas on the planet, where the population (near Ramsar) is exposed to hundreds of times the average background on a daily basis.
Even Grossi's statement about the inhalation hazards of alpha particles raised my eyebrows. Even a milligram of inhaled 60% HEU (this is a LOT of dust), will not exceed the annual dose limit for a nuclear worker. So the possibility of any noncombatants being measurably exposed is incredibly remote.
paper horizon
https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2025/06/22/iranian-parliament-reportedly-approves-closing-hormuz-strait-media- any further confirmation regarding this?
minor nest
Catching up this morning and this was an interesting bit from the NYT live thread ( https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/22/world/israel-iran-us-trump/4d59ead6-7a91-5c32-88c2-63156d407341?smid=url-share&smid=nytcore-android-share gift link above if you need it)
obtuse raft
https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2025/06/22/iranian-parliament...
I’ve seen reports about it on France24 & the JP citing Iran's Press TV but saying it still needs a final approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council
astral holly
Getting lots of concerned messages from friends in the Gulf, apparently they're panicking over the report that Bushehr province or city, home to a nuclear power plant, was hit:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/06/22/iran-media-reports-massive-blast-in-bushehr-province-home-to-nuclear-reactor
split orchid
The exaggerated nuclear/radiation fear is sad to see. Lots of unnecessary suffering, on top of everything else. Any and every chemical plant, ammo dump or oil refinery is a more dangerous source of pollution than a nuclear site being struck.
Watching Bushehr for reports of power outages would be a good idea. That could lead to an accident if the power plant personnel turn out to be highly incompetent, which I doubt.
small island
The exaggerated nuclear/radiation fear is sad to see. Lots of unnecessary suffer...
That doesn't comport with the head of the IAEA's warning that attacking the site could cause widespread contamination if the Gulf, which is what scared people in the first place. Though I've seen no indication that Israel or the US are interested in taking it out as no enrichment activities are known to go in there AFAIK.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/20/iaeas-grossi-warns-of-nuclear-disaster-if-israel-hits-irans-bushehr-plant
astral holly
The exaggerated nuclear/radiation fear is sad to see. Lots of unnecessary suffer...
Could you elaborate on that? It makes sense given that such a widespread campaign targeting nuclear infrastructure hasn't caused many reports of contamination. Is it due to safeguards?
split orchid
That doesn't comport with the head of the IAEA's warning that attacking the site...
That would be if Iran deliberately destroys a civilian nuclear plant with large volumes of precision munitions. Which is just as fanciful as Israel employing nuclear warheads on a city.
hot python
Please refrain from using memes.
vapid whale
Please refrain from using memes.
Acknowledged
hot python
Was Bushehr the one that Russian personnel were pulled back from recently?
split orchid
Could you elaborate on that? It makes sense given that such a widespread campaig...
There just isn't particularly serious concern when it comes to Iran's non-civilian nuclear material, due to its nature and volume. The headline item is 400 kg of enriched Uranium, which sounds scary but is not much more dangerous than 400 kg of any other toxic chemical. The baseline fact to be aware of is that naturally occurring U-238 is essentially just a toxic heavy metal like lead, which can harm to the kidneys and liver, but that its radiation hazard is minimal due the long half-life. U-235 is slightly more dangerous, but you could still inhale whole milligram of aerosolized material with no noticeable health impacts, either individually or in a large population.
The IAEA has no access to these sites and no networked sensors that I know of, so the 'no contamination' statement is actually quite meaningless. Previously they have said that there will be some chemical and radiological contamination expected in the rubble.
But a few hundred Kg or HEU buried under rubble is like a needle in a haystack.
astral holly
Was Bushehr the one that Russian personnel were pulled back from recently?
I believe the Russians are still there operating it.
hot python
I believe the Russians are still there operating it.
Maybe it was a false alarm. Or I misremembered.
astral holly
There just isn't particularly serious concern when it comes to Iran's non-civili...
I understand that about the HEU, I mean more about the nuclear plant. There was a similar conversation about Ukraine's Zaporizhia plant a couple of years ago - could direct damage to such a facility's powergrid really have such an impact on a huge region?
split orchid
I understand that about the HEU, I mean more about the nuclear plant. There was ...
It's a very remote possibility, but yes. In theory if the power grid goes down and the diesel generators fail, the cores can melt in a Fukushima scenario. Uncontrolled melting of the core will eventually cause some kind of failure in the containment structures, or gases will need to be vented to relieve the pressure, wafting fission products across the region.
Maaaany things need to go extravagantly wrong for this to happen. And the most likely accident would still be limited fuel damage with short-lived nuclides released that won't cause lasting contamination (think Three Mile Island). But the consequences of the ensuing hysteria (economic, social, political) could be extreme, even if no member of the public ever receives a medically relevant dose.
vapid whale
It's a very remote possibility, but yes. In theory if the power grid goes down a...
Interesting.
Out of curiosity and shifting the focus on energy, what the attacks could mean for the regional/state power grid stability?
If I recall, Iran had a need for civilian nuclear power plants to meet their energy demands, hence why there are nuclear plants in the first (or second place, not speculating).
Not interested on the energy stability of the nuclear plants though, that would a different topic
split orchid
Interesting.
Out of curiosity and shifting the focus on energy, what the attac...
As we have seen in Ukraine, a competently run grid can absorb an awful lot, and power outages are mostly just an irritation even when widespread. Energy demand is probably way down as the population hunkers down, anyhow. No one is out there trying to roll 200 tanks off the assembly line every shift.
loud marsh
It's a very remote possibility, but yes. In theory if the power grid goes down a...
Thank you for that insight
vapid whale
As we have seen in Ukraine, a competently run grid can absorb an awful lot, and ...
Nothing personal, but I'm not interested in military production lines, my interest is on emergency/telecom/civilian food supply that relies on the energy grid.
Power outages are mostly an irritation when emergency services/systems are covered by backup power. And that is also true for telecoms.
Taking the energy outages within a continuum scope, they can quickly become an issue when key systems in remote areas become logistically unfeasible to provide supplies for backup power.
I'm unaware of Iran's government policy/advisories regarding their emergency services/telecoms operations in case of grid failure. Do you have some directions where I could learn more?
split orchid
Nothing personal, but I'm not interested in military production lines, my intere...
Power grids in general and Iran in particular are honestly not my topic. I'm sure that impacts there are possible, but inclined to say that it is just one of the ways which the country and population might suffer.
My moderately uninformed gut feeling is that Israel is quite limited in terms of precision munition stocks and air-to-air refueling, so they won't carry out a large Russia-style campaign of strategic bombing on economic/infrastructure targets.
loud marsh
Power grids in general and Iran in particular are honestly not my topic. I'm sur...
could you please comment on Iran's capacity to disrupt regional supply chains for hydrocarbon-based fuels? Natural Gas, Crude oil. How much can they conceivably degrade regional production capacities through direct attacks on Arab infrastructure, fuel depots, refineries and pipelines?
hot python
Hey everyone, please remember that this server is not the right place for speculation.
balmy cliff
loud marsh
Hey everyone, please remember that this server is not the right place for specul...
sorry!
hot python
Maybe it was a false alarm. Or I misremembered.
This is what I remembered. So some may have been pulled out, but most remained.
https://kyivindependent.com/fueling-chaos-across-the-middle-east-russian-nuclear-diplomacy-and-irans-weapons-program/
vapid whale
This is what I remembered. So *some* may have been pulled out, but most remained...
Do you happen to have a source that defines the timeline of Iran's nuclear history? The article mentions that the Bushehr nuclear plower plant was already having setbacks since 1979. But no specific year on the country's start
hot python
Do you happen to have a source that defines the timeline of Iran's nuclear histo...
Wikipedia is quite comprehensive. Bushehr was the first, building was started in 1975. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran
vapid whale
Nothing personal, but the tunnel vision on the article is palpable. Nuclear power is clean energy. The aforementioned gas/oil are known to be heavy pollutants, and Iran being to this day the third most polluted country in the planet and the sixth most emitting country in the world makes nuclear power an suitable option (not counting the fact of multiple sanctions done by the U.S to make it impossible for the country to develop other alternatives).
But those values are regarding today's pollution, it should be important to map whether those were concerns of the government when the research started.
vapid whale
Wikipedia is quite comprehensive. Bushehr was the first, building was started in...
Thanks, I appreciate it
placid osprey
https://radar.cloudflare.com/ir Internet in Iran is a bit better according to Cloudflare's traffic.
vapid whale
Wikipedia is quite comprehensive. Bushehr was the first, building was started in...
Nothing personal and also not nitpicking, but I'm having a terrible time reading this source through Western views, analysis done by Western journalists and backed by U.S sources.
Are there any unbiased Iranian nationals journalists or non-western journals (independent, not backed by state media) that I could learn more about this?
It doesn't need to be in English, any language is fine.
copper current
<https://radar.cloudflare.com/ir> Internet in Iran is a bit better according to ...
Is there a way to break it down by region? I checked snap maps and people are still posting from Tehran and near the borders of Turkey and Afghanistan, but it seems to be a dead zone everywhere else
snow rock
Nothing personal and also not nitpicking, but I'm having a terrible time reading...
You can look for the companion article on the Persian Wikipedia.
Edit. Here it is.
https://fa.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/برنامه_هستهای_ایران
minor nest
Nothing personal and also not nitpicking, but I'm having a terrible time reading...
Due to the amount of suppression in Iran you're going to have to do a lot of searching. Generally the Persian speaking internet is divided between expatriates who are critical of the regime and those who still live there and can't be too bold. If you find this information I'm sure we'd all be interested
The Persian sources I follow were posting various anti-regime stuff last night, which I didn't share here, for the reason they aren't on the ground and we are looking for open source information
placid osprey
Is there a way to break it down by region? I checked snap maps and people are st...
Unfortunately not. A country is the smallest resolution you can get from Cloudflare metrics.
slate spade
There's nothing I've ever seen in the last decade that gets into specifics on Iran's nuclear dual-use, or specifics besides the level of uranium enrichment. The latest IAEA report that I know of is from 2015 and gets into the background:
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov-2015-68.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
vapid whale
Due to the amount of suppression in Iran you're going to have to do a lot of sea...
Thank you for the insight, I don't mind the effort of searching, although I'll definitely have a difficult time being able to verify information. Any suggestions on how I might do that?
minor nest
Thank you for the insight, I don't mind the effort of searching, although I'll d...
Just the general ones of independent confirmation (not two sources repeating each other; it must be two separate investigations that come to the same conclusion), understanding if anyone has
specific motivations, including fear, to say what they say; having visual evidence of at least two, hopefully three, data points.
I had pretty good sources during Woman Life Freedom but they no longer post. I hope they are ok.
snow rock
Was anything new stated at that 8am presser from the pentagon? I missed it.
copper current
Unfortunately not. A country is the smallest resolution you can get from Cloudfl...
I found this website to help narrow it down https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IR
placid osprey
I found this website to help narrow it down https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu...
Looks interesting, thx.
vapid whale
I found this website to help narrow it down https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu...
Damn, they even have BGP peer data of ASN's, that is a great tool
past knot
There's nothing I've ever seen in the last decade that gets into specifics on Ir...
Here are some IAEA reports on Iran from this year:
2025-02-26: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/03/gov2025-8.pdf
2025-02-26: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/03/gov2025-10.pdf
2025-05-31: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf
2025-05-31 [seems important]: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pdf
2025-06-03 [Iran's response / Explanatory Note following gov2025-25]: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/2025/infcirc1297.pdf
2025-06-12 [adoption of a resolution]: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-38.pdf
2025-06-12, Joint Statement by several Member States [Belarus, China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, Russia, Venezuela - may point out some things from previous reports, especially the gov2025-25 one]: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/2025/infcirc1299.pdf
upbeat edge
Was anything new stated at that 8am presser from the pentagon? I missed it.
They released this infographic of the timeline:
https://x.com/DODResponse/status/1936799099572916400
The actual talking was not more substantive.
X
vapid whale
Just the general ones of independent confirmation (not two sources repeating eac...
Thank you, I appreciate the suggestions
glass rampart
Nothing personal and also not nitpicking, but I'm having a terrible time reading...
The arms control association has a pretty exhaustive timeline, starts with the US giving them a research reactor: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/timeline-nuclear-diplomacy-iran-1967-2023
thorn obsidian
bronze meadow
Well it's really outrageous to me that the thumbnail of that story is a European gas pump, but I guess corporate media has its priorities
snow rock
Well it's really outrageous to me that the thumbnail of that story is a European...
politico.eu is the European edition of the US centric politico.com iirc.
loud marsh
https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-reportedly-moves-shut-strait-hormuz-us-atta...
a BBC article mentions that the most likely course of action to implement this would involve using sea-mines to stall commercial traffic. What would countermeasures in this domain entail?
dusky pine
a BBC article mentions that the most likely course of action to implement this w...
Strait is only around 50km wide at its narrowest point, so truck launched Anti ship missiles are probably also an option to target ships directly.
loud marsh
Strait is only around 50km wide at its narrowest point, so truck launched Anti s...
right, but with American-Israeli air superiority achieved, would that really be a viable attack option?
snow rock
Any final decision on retaliation, however, will rest with the country's Supreme National Security Council and leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The parliament vote merely advises him of the option to pursue.
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-parliament-vote-close-straits-hormuz-us-attacks-2088968
dusky pine
right, but with American-Israeli air superiority achieved, would that *really* b...
We will see. But as seen in the red sea they can cause a lot of disruption on shipping.
muted bane
We will see. But as seen in the red sea they can cause a lot of disruption on sh...
Not to mention the shock this will do on the price of Oil and Gas
gilded widget
a BBC article mentions that the most likely course of action to implement this w...
#maritime message
Summary from a well regarded SME on asymetric/unconventional naval warfare
loud marsh
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/920298016123023400/1386386190730...
thanks!
dusky pine
Its also worth mentioning that they dont have to sink or damage a lot of ships, The threat alone is probably enough to cause significant disruption.
polar patio
^ if the insurers assume it is mined, nobody will go through
frail halo
Its also worth mentioning that they dont have to sink or damage a lot of ships, ...
This tbh. The Houthis had agreed to cease attacking international shipping in the Bab el-Mandab Strait area last month but Red Sea/Suez transit was still way down. #maritime message
polar patio
Iran has a sizable naval mine stockpile though, and they're one of the few countries that still produce and use drift mines. So they could feasibly have their small boats or aircraft drop them in currents and mine a widening area fairly fast
They do however lack the capability to place large numbers of more advanced naval mines
lapis berry
radiant pelican
right, but with American-Israeli air superiority achieved, would that *really* b...
We've seen the houthis do it pretty successfully
loud marsh
We've seen the houthis do it pretty successfully
I don't know what the actual percentage-reduction in maritime traffic during that ordeal was
I know insurance rates spiked and a lot of ships were rerouted, and that a lot of expeditionary 'anti piracy' surface combatants were dispatched to the area by traditionally neutral nations
that reinforcement isn't going to be an option now, given Iran would directly be enforcing the blockade
what we can count on is heavy Chinese pressure to keep the oil flowing through that chokepoint
radiant pelican
I don't know what the actual percentage-reduction in maritime traffic during tha...
loud marsh
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/09/06/maersk-reports-houthi-attacks-cause-66-p...
welp
frail halo
i am once again linking shucky’s post from Lloyd’s List #maritime message
radiant pelican
I don't know what the tolerance for risk will be in Hormuz since there is really no alternative route. Will it be like WW2 where the country taking the shipment is expected to provide the shipping? Can Iran maybe work something out where oil can still flow to china?
rigid light
think it's bordering a bit into speculation here
radiant pelican
I don't know how much the flow was shut down during the Iran Iraq tanker war.
split orchid
right, but with American-Israeli air superiority achieved, would that *really* b...
Unless you want to blow up every truck in the area, sure. Actually it will be a good test of a Taiwan invasion scenario
Bandar Abbas has 600,000 people. It's like hiding missiles in Gaza.
glass rampart
radiant pelican
Unless you want to blow up every truck in the area, sure. Actually it will be a ...
We've also seen Ukraine do amazing work with sea drones.
split orchid
Basically, only the USN can do much to police the strait, due to distance from IDF airfields. We already saw the Houthi operation strain air groups and lead to worrying expenditure of PGMs. So now imagine that x10.
gilded widget
▶️ Hey everyone! Great discussion on maritime capabilities and potential scenarios. For those interested in diving deeper into the technical aspects, we have dedicated channels where subject matter experts often share insights
#maritime - for naval/shipping analysis
#aviation - for air operations discussion
#bombs-arms-drones-other-killing-machines - for weapons systems
#middle_east-north_africa - for broader regional context (Middle East North Africa)
Let's try to keep this channel focused on documented events and developments as they unfold rather than hypothetical scenarios. This helps ensure relevant experts see the discussion and keeps our event-focused channels clear for breaking developments. Thanks for keeping our discussions organized!
kindred crag
X
astral holly
I have been trying to find information or news about Iran's "Pickaxe mountain", an alleged facility built deeper than Fordow. All of the claims about it seem to come from two pro-Israel think tanks, the FDD and ISIS (no relation) who are I'm not sure are considered credibile.
https://archive.is/iyT0M
From the Financial Times, citing the FDD:
Adding to the risks is that Fordow is not the only ultra-secure facility that Iran can fall back on. Tehran has recently been building an even deeper and better-protected facility into Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, also known as Pickaxe mountain, a few kilometres south of Natanz.
While Fordow is thought to have two tunnel entrances, Pickaxe has at least four, making it harder to seal off entrances by bombing. Its underground halls also have more floorspace.
plush nymph
hot python
I think we said that war declaration talk etc. could go in #usa-canada
Or even #1330709161385922650 if it's speculative
past knot
Which ones? [can you link accs?]
plush nymph
Which ones? [can you link accs?]
strickernonpro, mdubowitz
deep pumice
I don't have twitter so is it okay if i ask what you mean 😭
plush nymph
I don't have twitter so is it okay if i ask what you mean 😭
open your dm
deep pumice
open your dm
try now
hot python
I still don’t understand what you mean. Can you edit this to add a few sentences what you are referring to and why?
And please remember to link sources.
plush nymph
I still don’t understand what you mean. Can you edit this to add a few sentences...
i will delete an rewrite
past knot
Here are some IAEA reports on Iran from this year:
2025-02-26: https://www.iaea...
Added one more important link to the list of IAEA reports / communications:
2025-06-03 [Iran's response / Explanatory Note following gov2025-25]
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/2025/infcirc1297.pdf
frozen tinsel
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp-video/mmvo242058821681
It's US officials reporting this so it's a little unclear if it's to manufacture consent for the war or if it's plausible but either way 👀
Iran says they could (note: they could do a lot of things) activate terror cells in the US
deep pumice
https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1937071846270099871?t=s4NLhDSKnTKceRKF0zMJIA/en
(auto translate not working) 8000 Israeli's without electricity after the last Iranian airstrike 30 minutes ago
Large Israeli air-raid over Tehran right now https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1937069956044406823
X
rigid light
brittle fulcrum
The judiciary media further stated that he had been in contact with a person named “David,” identified as a Mossad agent, in one of the Persian Gulf countries, and had been submitting weekly reports of his activities.
deep pumice
astral holly
Friends in Kuwait, UAE and Qatar tell me that US university campuses are currently doing evacuation drills.
vapid whale
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2702085-russi...
yeah looks like Disclose very intentionally doctored that quote/headline. RU offered mediation efforts
rigid light
yeah looks like Disclose very intentionally doctored that quote/headline. RU off...
something to be said about unnamed twitter accounts that only post bits of headlines with no sources no information nothing else
vapid whale
not to be taken as anything more than "vibes" but the moment I saw that Disclose account my brain immediately went "ah wait that's one of the garbage ones iirc" but ADHD and bad memory makes it hard for me to remember what initially gave me the bad vibes
dawn osprey
cinder plaza
I have been trying to find information or news about Iran's "Pickaxe mountain", ...
Do you have any links to material covering the Kūh-e Kolang Gaz installation?..thanks
tender basin
Do you have any links to material covering the Kūh-e Kolang Gaz installation?..t...
This article has some details about it https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0
dusky pine
And i doubt that they reached the facility at Fordow either, in bedrock those bombs are nowhere near 60 meters of penetration. 10-15 is more realistic.
vapid whale
It really is bizarre to have launched a strike like that in an area that is both unlikely to still house enriched uranium and also is nearly impossible to conduct a BDA for.
warped cedar
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp-video/mmvo242058821681
It's US officials report...
It's plausible and not, not likely. Hezbollah especially has very extensive networks inside the US, although it mostly operates as a criminal enterprise. They do have specific cells that explicitly do operational work for IRGC and MOIS though. They have quite the record of failed assassination attempts. With that said I wouldn't take Iranian govt handwaving about it as an indicator in itself.
plush nymph
Bluesky
slate spade
Related to counterattacks from Iran: https://bsky.app/profile/jamiegangel.bsky.social/post/3lsbvxslrts2e
modern finch
Qatar airspace closed, seeing mass diversions
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/qatar-shuts-down-airspace-temporarily-amid-regional-crisis/
dusky pine
It really is bizarre to have launched a strike like that in an area that is both...
Iran is also known for havin a lot of earthquakes, so i think its safe to say that any underground facility is built with that in mind, and thus is resistant to shock waves up to a pretty high level.
stable swallow
It's plausible and not, not likely. Hezbollah especially has very extensive netw...
There's also been a history of (attempted) killings in the EU. An attempt in NL and a shooting in Madrid.
cinder plaza
It really is bizarre to have launched a strike like that in an area that is both...
Lack of BDA accessibility wouldnt stop a a strike on a site of such importance, but as for likelyhood of it still storing material when it was struck well Trump will pretend it did and that he knew, but in reality he probably bullied any advisor that suggested problems into agreeing it was a fantastic idea...probably the greatest Idea Ever
modern finch
vapid whale
X
gritty karma
https://x.com/lukaszbok/status/1937188747105243192?s=46&t=4mwKJo6BIkefQNuF0bgQJw
translation: Iran fired missiles at Al Udeid base in Qatar.
balmy cliff
modern finch
vapid whale
balmy cliff
X
modern finch
gritty karma
X
astral holly
So... I arrived in Doha this morning. Hotel room is shaking 
U.S is intercepting missiles unfortunately, heard a report from a friend that a place close his home was hit.
plush nymph
Is this legit? Cause it's dark
plush nymph
So... I arrived in Doha this morning. Hotel room is shaking <:loldog:10396836282...
You stay safe, my friend
vapid whale
that looks like more than 6-7 missiles
modern finch
So... I arrived in Doha this morning. Hotel room is shaking <:loldog:10396836282...
hell of a time to arrive. thinking of you
dusky pine
Is this legit? Cause it's dark
If i would guess this is looking like iron dome (or some similar more short range system) and not patriot/thaad, and not ballistic missile interception.
astral holly
I have heard at a minimum 14 strong blasts. I am about 30 minutes away from Al Udeid.
modern finch
If i would guess this is looking like iron dome (or some similar more short rang...
Qatar has no Iron Dome equivalent as far as I can tell. Wikipedia says the Qatari Army possesses a motely assortment of MRAD and SHORAD systems, including NASAMS, Rapier and Roland which might all be responsible
plush nymph
I have heard at a minimum 14 strong blasts. I am about 30 minutes away from Al U...
Sands live cam?? I hope this doesn't get out of control.
subtle horizon
Stay safe, LS!
astral holly
Sent by a friend's sister.
minor nest
https://x.com/iranobserver0/status/1937190080768082082?s=46&t=4mwKJo6BIkefQNuF0b...
It is currently 8:01 PM in Qatar
Sunset is at 6:28 PM today
vapid whale
modern finch
Wikipedia further says that Qatar possesses both THAAD and Patriot
astral holly
Sands live cam?? I hope this doesn't get out of control.
Interception videos on the Reddit page for Qatar
Can't really live cam it, hotel instructed closed curtains and stay away from windows.
minor nest
From @fluid notch
https://bsky.app/profile/gbrumfiel.bsky.social/post/3lsc2g6nxvs2s
astral holly
hell of a time to arrive. thinking of you
Thanks man!
dusky pine
placid osprey
Is there an air raid alert to stay in shelter? @astral holly
astral holly
Is there an air raid alert to stay in shelter? <@1021885495120244887>
Nope, no alarm system in Qatar.
balmy cliff
Wikipedia further says that Qatar possesses both THAAD and Patriot
Plus we know that the US moved at least one Patriot battery from South Korea to the ME back in April. Not sure exactly where this ended up, but it's possible it's protecting Al Udeid
vapid whale
We also have ship-borne AD in the area too don't we?
astral holly
Tons of drones in the sky as well. All on Reddit I think. Didn't know it was popular in Qatar
vapid whale
this is saying 11 total, 10 toward Qatar, 1 toward Iraq
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lsc2z5m6nk2z
astral holly
Interception taken by a friend from the male dorm at North Western (the students were actually evacuated today)
modern finch
sirens are sounding in Bahrain
https://vxtwitter.com/moi_bahrain/status/1937194158848184438
vxTwitter / fixvx
modern finch
takeoffs are resuming at Dubai International
https://www.flightradar24.com/FDB5LD/3aefcd9e
vapid whale
https://x.com/alex6130/status/1936863310437101930
<OLD TWEET NOT FROM TODAY>
wild view from mid air <YESTERDAY>
X
muted bane
https://x.com/alex6130/status/1936863310437101930
<OLD TWEET NOT FROM TODAY>
w...
Old tweet, check the date
vapid whale
Oh good eye, my b
balmy cliff
I'm watching Al Jazeera live, according to them the attack is now over and people are returning to the streets.
minor nest
Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.
balmy cliff
X
celest ridge
this is saying 11 total, 10 toward Qatar, 1 toward Iraq
https://bsky.app/profil...
"The number of missiles used in this successful operation was the same as the number of bombs used by the United States in its attack on Iran's nuclear facilities;..." So looking at 14 or 44 missiles launched depending on whether they went by just GBU-57 bombs dropped or GBU-57 + Tomahawk missiles. This statement is specific to Al-Udeid Airbase, Qatar strike though
https://t.me/mehrnews/297027
astral holly
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news/82bf4cc2-e1...
That confirms what some talking heads were telling me when evacuations started today - Qatar practically nominated itself for the Iranian response, to satiate both sides and to try and end the escalation.
minor nest
That confirms what some talking heads were telling me when evacuations started t...
I had an idea it would be a "we need to throw some shit at the US for our domestic audience" situation, but that is, of course, not good enough to post here 🙂
astral holly
Burning Shahed?
celest ridge
I had an idea it would be a "we need to throw some shit at the US for our domest...
That's what NYT is reporting
vapid whale
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news/82bf4cc2-e1...
I guess the big question is "will the US take that exit ramp"
muted bane
With that said, saw some messages online regarding possible strikes in Iraq, so I don’t think we are a completely out of the woods
astral holly
US offical told AJ arabic no injuries at the base.
placid osprey
FxTwitter
modern finch
if this is an offramp (and I hope it is) the language of the Qatari foreign ministry is definitely quite harsh, though that itself might just be to reassure internal elements
astral holly
if this is an offramp (and I hope it is) the language of the Qatari foreign mini...
It's quite normal and expected actually. No nation would let its national territory get attacked without issuing a tongue-lashing, whatever the context. Also Qatari people generally have prejudiced attitudes towards Iran, even if the governments share cordial relations. (I am speaking as someone who has studied Gulf foreign relations and history professionally.)
deep zodiac
Someone tracking the marine traffic in the street of Hormuz?
If i have a question about how to track activity / see if the activities are declining. Should I ask this better in the marine channel?
minor nest
If i have a question about how to track activity / see if the activities are dec...
The #maritime channel probably knows more 🙂 I don't know, personally
loud marsh
It really is bizarre to have launched a strike like that in an area that is both...
correction: it is nearly impossible to input standard optical imagery into this BDA pipeline. There must be other bands of the EM spectrum, acoustic, maybe atmospheric analysis conducted by a WC-135 that could facilitate a conclusive assessment, and we aren't even factoring in all the Human intelligence channels that Israel and the US would source this info through
It's not very hard for those with adequate security clearances to figure out how much Iranian enrichment capabilities were degraded
astral holly
To give you an indication of how coordinated this was - people went to work today here in Doha. Around 3pm in the workday, warnings were issued and some people sent home. The attacks happened in the evening, not waking up anyone in the middle of the night. Two friends told me they are told to come to work tomorrow.
loud marsh
if this is an offramp (and I hope it is) the language of the Qatari foreign mini...
seconded, global markets concur. US crude just tumbled 4% according to CNN
modern finch
Kuwait airspace is now closed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/23/israel-iran-war-live-updates-us-trump-regime-change-middle-east-gaza-latest-news?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-685993c18f08c5412c197af9#block-685993c18f08c5412c197af9
loud marsh
To give you an indication of how coordinated this was - people went to work toda...
sounds almost choreographed
muted cliff
sounds almost choreographed
Off the daily telegraphs live coverage of it
loud marsh
Off the daily telegraphs live coverage of it
I was a little thrown of by that statement of theirs
"the number of missiles used in this......was equal to the number of bombs..."
they didn't count the tomahawks as 'bombs', did they? We're just referring to the GBU 57s
ripe crest
Someone tracking the marine traffic in the street of Hormuz?
An overview of observed effects so far
loud marsh
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1153958/Caution-Uturns-and-rising-rates-but-tanker-...
any recent variation in insurance premiums?
nvm, the source you linked seems pretty comprehensive. I thought it was just measuring traffic density
deep zodiac
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1153958/Caution-Uturns-and-rising-rates-but-tanker-...
Thank you!
vapid whale
nvm, the source you linked seems pretty comprehensive. I thought it was just mea...
That's one of the world's oldest journals, from the same owner of Lloyd's of London, also one of the oldest insurance markets in the world
warped cedar
if this is an offramp (and I hope it is) the language of the Qatari foreign mini...
Pretty much in re the last part, it has some foreign basis too. This is a weird point that gets deeper into psychology and some surrounding cognitive sciences, but there's odd impacts that can happen if you just, don't do anything (in re the external regard here not internal). Even though say, in this case, the US obviously knows a great deal about Irans capabilities, them not responding at all degrades our view of them, even if the "reason" isn't very logical.
Same happens with protests that turn to riots interesting enough. Even amongst debates about specific responses, those audiences will generally still have degraded views if cops do nothing at all, even though this seems very contradictory.
loud marsh
That's one of the world's oldest journals, from the same owner of Lloyd's of Lo...
I see. Thank you for sharing it!
subtle horizon
Hi all let's try to keep this channel for breaking news please, any in-depth discussion about shipping or anything else that isn't related to news events related to this conflict can go in #maritime
rigid light
https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/1937206742909149681 seems like business as usual in kharg island today
astral holly
The Iranian national security council practically thanked Qatar:
" مجلس الأمن القومي الإيراني: عملياتنا خالية من أي تهديد أو خطر على الدولة الصديقة والشقيقة قطر وشعبها."
"Our operation was void of any threat or danger upon the brotherly and friendly nation of Qatar and its people."
(From ajabreaking on X)
placid osprey
X
astral holly
So people are apparently driving around looking for shrapnel as a souvenier. Looks like the show is over, good night yall 🥱
prime shore
It's plausible and not, not likely. Hezbollah especially has very extensive netw...
Do you have any sources for this?
dusky prism
So people are apparently driving around looking for shrapnel as a souvenier. Loo...
Good night
And I must admit I wondered whenever person from this server would witness an event
modern finch
So people are apparently driving around looking for shrapnel as a souvenier. Loo...
At least you’re safe. Hope you can sleep
glass plaza
So people are apparently driving around looking for shrapnel as a souvenier. Loo...
UAE already lifted airspace restrictions so everyone seems confident this is a one off; thats been my hope/estimate this entire time, a single show of force from Iran to save face
placid osprey
https://fxtwitter.com/usawtfm/status/1937232132079833393 US Army in Qatar POV (????) during today's missile attack.
glass plaza
https://fxtwitter.com/usawtfm/status/1937232132079833393 US Army in Qatar POV (?...
since it seems like Qatar AND US Forces were given a headsup it was damn near a spectator sport
vapid whale
kind of IR to give US troops an early fireworks show for 4th of July
frail halo
the intercepts look relatively low altitude and Qatar just signed the deal to get THAAD last month. Qatar took credit for the intercepts and has had operational patriot systems since 2018. my guess is that this is mostly qatari patriot ABMs fired. there’s a few videos floating around, so getting geo on them could help confirm that but I’m not at my computer at the moment
slate spade
placid osprey
celest ridge
the intercepts look relatively low altitude and Qatar just signed the deal to ge...
There's been a few examples of PAC-3 (one of the missiles that can be fired by the Patriot) remnants found.
https://x.com/AFP/status/1937228419361833334
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937200811542478892
https://x.com/Easybakeovensz/status/1937244367212744838
steel jackal
Is this the right channel to ask if the straight of hormuz is still being closed? or is there still no information on that
vapid whale
the only information out on it is indicating it's not currently being closed
frail halo
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1limxj2/iranian_missiles_being_intercepted_seen_from/
Looks to be taken from apartment building at 25.385870718747476, 51.525098725296864, facing roughly west southwest. Based on the angle between the roads and the points on the horizon interceptors are rising from, it looks like most of the interceptors are coming from Al Dehailiyat Army Camp, which is home to Qatar's Air Defence Forces. It's not terribly far away from Al Udeid Airbase, but Qatar's small enough that the angle difference looks to be enough.
wheat ridge
X
raven apex
Flight QTR60U From Oslo to Doha is turning around and landing in Budapest.
Norwegian text:
https://e24.no/internasjonal-oekonomi/i/mPog0O/fly-fra-oslo-til-doha-snudde-over-egypt?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vg.no
woven hound
Trump has announced a ceasefire?
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114734934153569653
deep pumice
Trump has announced a ceasefire?
> CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been ful...
Trump waffling sounds like https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1937250842937295129
X
woven hound
Trump waffling sounds like https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1937250842937295129
this was tweeted an hour and a half before Trump posted this so I don’t think it refutes it. could be he’s bullshitting but I would not take that tweet as proof
deep pumice
this was tweeted an hour and a half before Trump posted this so I don’t think it...
I mean the ceasefire in his tweet isn't set to go into effect immediately, could be last few israeli bombings which they tend to do on the leadup to ceasefires (and during, and after)
late otter
deep pumice
FixupX
deep raven
https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/1937279325163737584?t=vaNOCz__j_pgu_dU392eaw&s=33
I see a source saying Iran is for it
warped cedar
For ref also to clear anyones potential confusion, this seems to set it out in 3 observable phases, 2 6 hours and 1 at 12 hours.
"in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down" - timeline for current operations based off this alone would be for another 6 hours. Seems to reflect both Israel and Iran stopping but still finalizing current/ongoing actions.
"and upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE" - alters or provides some inisight into the above and seems Israel would be in a (2nd?) phase that starts 6 hours after the original 6 hour reference. Potentially meaning Iran is suppose to stop first?
"upon the 24th hour, an official END to the 12 DAY WAR" - seems to put a (3rd?) phase at the 24 hour mark, 12 more hours after the 12.
vast spade
They call him liar in this but they don't necessarily make a comment on veracity of the claim
deep pumice
They call him liar in this but they don't necessarily make a comment on veracity...
very odd times we live in
Any reuters link? https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1937284766380011610
thorn plaza
Any reuters link? https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1937284766380011610
The only thing I'm finding about that doesn't directly link an Iranian official, but a Qatari-led agreement.
deep pumice
Any more reports on this? https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1937290096639901822?t=O1KOmo7ScHZ-XE_A0uVgBQ this is just 3 minutes ago
vast spade
Spectator index is not great at all. Never sources. Untrustworthy at best, outright misinfo at worst
dusky pine
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/
Neither Iran’s U.N. mission nor the Israeli embassy in Washington immediately responded to separate requests for comment from Reuters.
Hours earlier, three Israeli officials had signaled Israel was looking to wrap up its campaign in Iran soon and had passed the message on to the United States.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "very, very close to completing" its goals.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had agreed to the U.S.-proposed ceasefire.
deep pumice
Spectator index is not great at all. Never sources. Untrustworthy at best, outri...
There are other sources of strikes right now, I don't have twitter to link to it but dropsite and other sources also reporting strikes right now in Tehran (with the specific description of being assassination attempt of a senior official. No other details regarding them though)