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#Weather and geological phenomena
unborn timber
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jagged niche
Fuck
unborn timber
Very bad trend for TS Melissa
Model output if you want to look at it
More and more models are suggesting a potential worst case scenario of it stalling out SW of Jamaica, intensifying, then turning NE.
unborn timber
unborn timber
I'm so concerned about storm surge.
Specifically these two areas- Primary concern is marked in pink,
Closer zoom of the two areas,
Old Harbor Bay+ Tarentum are my primary surge concerns, although Saint Andrew/ Kingston could easily see issues.
I could easily see 12-20(+) ft of storm surge occurring if Mellissa ends up taking the exact current estimate, which at that rate, even if your home doesn't get swept away- you would on the roof.
The worst thing is that- due to how slowly the system is moving- these conditions could worsen (and be maintained) for potentially a few days.
unborn timber
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unborn timber
jagged niche
Thunderstorm: exists
Texas power grid: “my job here is done. Goodbye yall on your own”
No wonder why my Google Home shut down 
unborn timber
(There is a minor chance of seeing a tornado today or tomorrow, i'm personally got my eyes on the Del Rio area)
(Well now that i look at the models again, switched to ol' reliable, Fort Worth-Dallas.)
jagged niche
(Well now that i look at the models again, switched to ol' reliable, Fort Worth-...
Well fuck 
Good reason to get me Meshtastic devices charged
If shit happens, get to highest point and turn on the devices
unborn timber
We're looking at will likely be an unprecedented catastrophe for Jamaica if these trends continue. (Highlighting by me.)
jagged niche
You should be a paid meteorologist at this point, wtf
unborn timber
The closest match to a prior event I can find would be Hurricane Gilbert (1988), Hit the island head on at high end Category 3, producing a 19 ft storm surge+ an additional 32 inches of rain, "Unofficial estimates state that atleast 30-70 people were killed [varies a lot], and had estimates that "500,000 people were left homeless" (per https://www.upi.com/Archives/1988/09/16/The-nations-official-death-toll-from-Hurricane-Gilbert-climbed/9643590385600/),
The population of Jamaica at the time was 2 million.
Of course- massive change in the area since, but it is also of note that the current path for Mellissa is further south, which I would expect to increase storm surge risk due to that local geography (water being shoved further and further into the bay, and not being able to get back out until the system moves on somewhat)
I am concerned that 20+ft of storm surge may be seen from this system for parts of Jamaica.
For additional context in terms of a "recent USA equivalent", Hurricane Ian (2022) of 10-15ft for parts of Florida. (Had predictions of 12-18 ft before landfall), this is typically considered unsurvivable without pure luck if you were in low lying areas.
Hurricane Milton (2024) had a max of 10ft S of Tampa, (Predictions were 12-15ft for Tampa, lucked out due to a change in pathing, which ended up drawing water out instead of pushing more in, i have a graphic I made in...probably this chat explaining that somewhere, will try to find)
unborn timber
I am concerned that 20+ft of storm surge may be seen from this system for parts ...
Realistically, 10+ inches of storm surge is certainly on the table, 20 is upper end worst case in my eyes.
unborn timber
(Well now that i look at the models again, switched to ol' reliable, Fort Worth-...
Expecting tornado potential to kick up in a few hours, (3-4 maybe? Most of the FW/DAL area shouuuld be aight for tornado risk, maybe southern Dallas could see something?)
(But overall, lookin at decent wind gusts+ lightning for that area's general risks imo)
unborn timber
Likely a brief tornado occurred close to Fort Worth,
unborn timber
I live in that metroplex, so this’ll be a long damn night
I mean honestly you get the one wave and then you're aight for the night (Unless flooding is a notable concern for ya.)
QLCS setup,
unborn timber
Likely a brief tornado occurred close to Fort Worth,
Sounds like a decently strong tornado occurred near if not over TCU's campus.
Reports of powerlines downed+ 1 "potentially collapsed structure" (First responder report, always sketchy)
unborn timber
(^Update on this- sounds like a building had roof damage? Hate y'alls scanner tbh, i can never get the levels right, but likely not a "collapse" like initially reported.)
unborn timber
geolocating damage for a NWS office at 1 AM 🙃
unborn timber
...This is a new worst case scenario I haven't thought of- specifically if you're concerned about storm surge in Kingston...
...It'd be held in the front right quadrant (Worst spot to be) for like 2 days if this ends up 100% verifying
unborn timber
unborn timber
If the forecast holds- I am extremely tempted to make a thread for this thread focusing on the impacts and recovery of Jamaica in the (bare mininimum) months to come.
unborn timber
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unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
Some of the responses i'm reading from Jamaicans (mainly via Twitter,) are very... Katrina-esque rhetoric, for lack of a better term, "We'll be fine- we've gone through this before", "There's nowhere to evacuate to so i'll stay home" (in a low-lying area), etc.
"The rainwater will flow away, we're built for this" ("this" being a 10th of the rainfall that is projected)
I fear that the absolute worst case scenario is unfolding. (A significant impact+ a notable swath of the population not taking as many precautions that could have been done)
...After Katrina, back in 2005, bodies were being recovered from floating in the streets for weeks, there's still 600+ people unrecovered from that one, 20 years later.
The best comparison I can tie this to is that this looks like it could very well be Jamaica's Katrina.
And I know that gets slung around quite often from newer members in the community- but i genuinely believe that the level of human anguish that will be seen in the coming weeks/ months will be comparable.
unborn timber
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unborn timber
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Just to clarify on the announcement- as long as Melissa is actively a threat to Jamaica+ surrounding countries- it will be in here, with coverage focused on the system itself, and i will try my best to preface each update message w/ the name of the system, so searching later will be easier,
When we start moving towards a extremely long term coverage of the direct aftermath and recovery for the island (Which may shake up political aspects) - that is likely when it will get it's own thread in Regions.
Best case scenario, one will not be needed, it depends on how this ends up occurring (And for lack of a better term, the "vibe" of how much impact it has on a national/international scale), we may not know the full extent of damage as far as the 29th in my opinion, depending on how well the underlying communication/power infrastructure holds.
(Excuse my typos- just woke up, just a breakdown of my thinking of why a thread may be needed, and why one isn't quite up yet, because it will sorta move out of the strict "weather" box i've made for myself here)
unborn timber
Landfall is not expected for many hours- but a good livestream going over the Hurricane Hunter's readings.
I have however noticed that Melissa has not quite turned to the NE as quickly as forecasted,
Forecast models vs where the path has been so far (Black X for recorded positions of the eye)
(00Z run w/ verif. for all positions up to 18Z)
it has currently overshot what I would consider to be the "majority" of the model consensus, waiting to see how this run fares in the next few verification cycles.
(18Z run)
Similar concerns can also be seen for the intensity forecast, (1st image is the 0Z run, 2nd is the 18Z run)
For context- as of this post, it is 22:48Z,(24HR format) next time I can pull this data is at 0Z.
Fun little side note- the reason why the NWS uses military time is because the NWS initially was a part of the military!
leaden mountain
Also, it just makes more sense. 😉
unborn timber
decently long thread with videos from the Hurricane Hunter flights recently
(I certainly recommend looking at all of them, especially this one.)
https://fxtwitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982915178221191411
unborn timber
3 fatalities reported in Jamaica already relating to preparations for Melissa
13 injuries reported.
Well, it's no longer moving W.
18:41 vs 19:51, no movement. (Maybe 0-1 MPH NW?)
unborn timber
If you're interested in the geography that is behind the concerns for the flooding/mudslide risk, i can only recommend this video by TheGeoModels,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ4a_01mGQY
unborn timber
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....they had a 240 MPH wind gust recorded, decent ways above the surface, but within "mountain" territory heights.
unborn timber
Geolocated initial flooding video,
unborn timber
About 2 hours until landfall. It looks like Alligator Pond will be the area to watch.
proven trellis
Someone did a video here:
https://bsky.app/profile/stevebowen.bsky.social/post/3m47utsq33c2d
unborn timber
About 2 hours until landfall. It looks like Alligator Pond will be the area to w...
(prolly tack on another hour to this estimate, didn't accelerate as quickly as I assumed it would.)
unborn timber
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proven trellis
unborn timber
https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/1983151868969922756
we are here-ish.
X
Still waiting for this flight to conclude- they may get some more readings, pressure dropped notably since the last probe. (Signs of it continue, or, had continued to intensify over the past few hours)
Would watch for reports of tornadoes as Melissa starts to cross over the island.
Could see a notable uptick in tornado reports for multiple island nations in the area today, to be honest, Primarily Haiti with those outer bands.
Personal assessment given the current pathing.
Significant wind risk- Black River, Billy's Bay, Calabash Bay, [potentially up to] Auchindown. (A notable portion of structures could see some degree of major failure, [roof or more])
Significant storm surge risk- Alligator Pond, Gut River, Fraquhars Beach, . (A notable portion of structures could see notable water ingress (10+ ft entirely possible.)
proven trellis
UN support prepped for Haiti https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/10/1166194
ODPEM have opened shelters : https://www.odpem.org.jm/weather-alert-melissa/
Support pledges coming in from various places (does this storm need its own thread?)
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2025/10/27/eyeonmelissajamaica-receiving-pledges-support-pm/
unborn timber
It looks likely that the recovery will get one, had a mini discussion about that decision yesterday.
proven trellis
Oh sorry. Been pre-occupied so missed it
unborn timber
Just to clarify on the announcement- as long as Melissa is actively a threat to ...
It's back up here if you want to read through my reasoning for that.
Forward speed has more than tripled to 7 MPH (Was at around 2 MPH), expecting that to accelerate further later, (Likely once it gets past Jamaica.)
unborn timber
New pass, 892.5 mb now.
sick stump
Anyone seen storm surge estimates? Is the water too deep for significant surge? Some of these western areas look relatively low-lying
proven trellis
Water really high already
sick stump
That is flooding from rainfall headed downstream
18.06136916149487, -76.98461373525544
proven trellis
It is.
keen narwhal
cunning cipher
Residents across Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine and St Thomas are being urged to exercise extreme caution as heavy rains and flooding associated with Hurricane Melissa may drive crocodiles out of their natural habitats into communities.
unborn timber
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Extremely significant damage reported in Black River, Jamaica.
We haven't heard from Morgerman since landfall, his service is likely fully out, was last known to be in Crawford.
proven trellis
Quarter of one cell networks down https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2025/10/28/eyeonmelissa-digicel-says-26-mobile-network-offline-vaz/
sick stump
https://x.com/GiovanniRDennis/status/1983219732732842200?t=loLbFh27Vm3TGfRzV-9HN...
Worth noting that there is no river to speak of in this area, on the opposite side of the island as the storm. It's a tiny stream.
The bumpy karst topography is literally just filling up in the low points, like when you make ice cubes with a tray
The water can't escape by rushing down a river because it usually just seeps into the ground.
unborn timber
unborn timber
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Still concerned about communities on both sides of Black River,
Still internally debating on if a recovery thread is needed,
This has been absolutely catastrophic, but we did avoid the worst case scenario (it deviating more the the E like the initial track had.)
Government is already pretty organized with a (what seems like) a solid plan to rebuild quickly
jagged niche
That’s some damn horror movie levels of damage
hardy geyser
https://fxtwitter.com/MooreLegend/status/1983588862317428942/photo/3
Damn, I just noticed that the structure is actually upside-down as well.
unborn timber
We haven't heard from Morgerman since landfall, his service is likely fully out,...
https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1983701263792718082?t=Xb5_8ZAvRxk9RwD_EWLWog&s=19
Confirmed alive and ok per locals, assisting cleanup (Like usual)
unborn timber
unborn timber
Major thing of note for me in this video is the snapped palm trees seen at 4:20- certainly was still a major hurricane at landfall (130+ MPH), In this area you can also see fully swept away structures+ Some concrete/brick failures+ washed out asphalt.
There also seem to be multiple cell/radio towers that are partially downed,
unborn timber
So Canada may have gotten their 1st ever EF5 last year. (Elie 2007 was before they used the EF scale, was rated F5.)
One problem-
wasn't standard tornadogenesis, but Pyrotornadogenesis
For context- the strongest fire-induced tornado that we know of in the USA is the 2018 Carr Fire tornado (143 MPH EF3)
Video of the Carr Fire tornado per https://www.fire.ca.gov/
leaden mountain
https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/1986928832230924301?t=4h_aDWHRcNmKTee_986kqg&s=19
Also Tennessee?
leaden mountain
Also Tennessee?
Source for that turns out to be “watching Max Velocity”. Reportedly short touchdown north of Franklin.
unborn timber
Also Tennessee?
Likely a very brief spin up SW of Nashville, hasn't been too much for the States
Gif I grabbed at the time (using a nearby airport's radar), was likely actively doing damage for like... 5 minutes at most
It was so brief that it never had a tornado warning on it, did have a severe thunderstorm warning (primarily for the 1+ inch hail) with a tornado possible tag
The damage photos I'm seeing out of Brazil however, does suggest quite the strong tornado occurred, with the potential to have been decently violent.
https://fxtwitter.com/TornadoClipss/status/1986940921271714029?t=6JlvDYhOMLDHZSQd3-qSBw&s=19
It is important to note that is practically peak tornado season for South America's tornado alley. (Although this did occur maybe a tiny bit more east than i'd expect,)
Like how the USA is anything east of the Rockies, for S. America it's a bit of a channel east of the Andes.
Vast oversimplification, gets the gist across
unborn timber
Geolocated to -25.492235667799747, -52.52930972802504
Source I pulled for video, https://www.facebook.com/reel/2014254806040432
Very rough "degree of damage", my personal scale is green to red, just a simple "in context for the area, what structures are the most damaged."
This sort of pattern suggests the camera is on the (what is likely) right edge of the damage path. (Assuming the tornado moved south east through this area)
unborn timber
..On further review- most of the significant damage is south of this footage, mostly residential areas, not well constructed homes/ unfortunate placements (in terms of the types of forces applied by a tornado) , gaps under the house (akin to mobile home setups in the States- allows wind to get under and lift the entire structure), large, open overhangs facing the wind direction (Again, allowing wind to get in and get trapped, akin to a standard garage failure mode)
This is a unique damage path in terms of damage points, likely didn't require as high of winds as normally expected (despite the better construction material in some of these homes)
X
This was the outlook for today, with the area that got hit being abouut dead center of the outlook, (SE of Cascavel, W of Guarapuava)
Really wish this had caught my eye- certainly caught theirs down there,
"It is possible that one or two significant tornadoes may occur."
also they use June 8, 2017 as an analog... (the Maratá tornado (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfaPAn72OF4) was estimated at "low end F4")
Actually had to look into what they were talking about, but it was one of the strongest in Brazil's recent history
unborn timber
unborn timber
The most significant damage I've seen so far from this tornado, marked w/ the "!" symbol, used to be 4 buildings in what seems to be a school,
I wonder if the building that is mostly gone was not secured to the foundation...as the shipping container next to the building is noticibly displaced but is still in the area.
The more I look at this- the more baffled I become-
the jut out portion of the building is somewhat left, did the rest of the building fail as one unit? (And get shoved to the SE? [direction the camera is facing in the drone footage])
unborn timber
How uncertain is the NWS about snowfall rates for the next few days?
This uncertain.
"<11 inches" and "anywhere from 1 to 15"
jagged niche
So it’s basically “there’s gonna be snow, so prep I guess”
covert finch
NWS has more updated guidance:
https://abc7chicago.com/post/chicago-weather-snow-possible-sunday-monday-winter-storm-watch-warning-advisory-cook-will-porter-lake/18133390/
Pink area could see a foot of snow in 24 hours.
unborn timber
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unborn timber
NWS has more updated guidance:
https://abc7chicago.com/post/chicago-weather-snow...
Important note that this was Accuweather, not the NWS,
A good chunk of the community do not respect them to put it lightly, lobbying and other political stuff (and the fact they would profit from the privatization of meteorology, long story.)
(Honestly- it is kindof scummy they'll gladly sell you $60-$120 subscriptions using data they get from the NWS for $0
severe kernel
It's always so weird to hear about other countries' tornados. They seem to be a lot less common than the US. It's that true or is that just my Americanized view?
unborn timber
It's always so weird to hear about other countries' tornados. They seem to be a ...
They're certainly less common, but still somewhat frequent, China's a great example, receiving an est 100 or so a year. (USA usually records around 1,200 a year)
Europe in general get around 100-200 a year, most of which occur around Germany/France/Austria/Poland
Australia gets around 50-100,
The USA has the exact right conditions for it to be more "widespread", but here's South America's "Pasillo de los Tornados" ("Tornado Corridor") in red.
I'd estimate they get somewhere around the 100-200 rate a year (Still a very developing field in meteorology, very little tornadic data from this part of the world), but these are known to be decently strong sometimes- and is frequently called the "2nd most active" spot on the Earth for tornadoes.
severe kernel
How very interesting!
unborn timber
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unborn timber
Reports of 30 people injured at a campground in Portugal after a tornado tracked through the area.
unborn timber
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unborn timber
unborn timber
I will note that a small subsect of the weather community shares the same reasoning (me included), the management at the camp were horrifically negligent.
(For example, they should have had a weather radio, especially being a campground for children, you can buy a decent one for about $50.)
even if you believed flooding was never an issue.... SEVERE WEATHER IN GENERAL WOULD BE- This area is on the edge of one of the most active tornado-producing areas in the world! (Corridor from San Antonio onwards is what you start thinking about when you think about a "TX/Dixie type tornado" (Panhandle is more Plains-esque,), and typically sees comically large hailstones! (3+ inches)
The Dixie sorta-type of tornado is a pure blob of rain (usually at night) that conceals your tornado almost entirely from an outsider's perspective.
The Plains sorta-type is your photogenic, low rain/high visibility types (usually at day.)
They either didn't- or didn't listen to it.
(internal discussion from me about this topic on July 17th, 13 days after the incident.)
Sorry about the mini rant but this led to 27 deaths out of the county's 117. (23%.)
unborn timber
In reviewing the data- a 252 MPH wind gust was recorded from Hurricane Melissa.
..I believe it's the 2nd highest wind gust recorded in human history [non-tornadic*], (1st being from Cyclone Olivia, 254 MPH)
(Estimated fastest ever windspeed that was recorded is an estimate of 281-321 MPH from the 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore F5)
(An additional calculation in the 2013 El Reno tornado also suggests **that **tornado had subvorts which potentially had 257-336 MPH winds)
(This is more debatable as the peak windspeed could have been < 3 seconds, which technically wouldn't quite qualify it as a standard wind gust reading)
unborn timber
Fairly light damage reported so far, trees down+ roof damage (One unlucky home owner also had both happen to them when their tree went through their roof)
unborn timber
Got my eyes on this cell just north of Mongomery, AL
...could show some potential in a bit,
unborn timber
... This scrawny one to the NE might actually beat it to the punch at this rate, I actually had ruled it out initially, but well, decided to get it's act together
... Might have produced an extremely brief and weak tornado. (If it was active, wasn't by the next scan, 3 minutes later.)
(Also might be a "leafnado", an extremely weak one that only really popped up on radar due to an abundance of "loose debris" in the environment, eg- dead leaves.)
unborn timber
https://x.com/RandomHeroWX/status/1993041741109407954?t=IPn2NXfwkXyYRl8N5uUNgg&s...
two tornadoes documented for the Houston area yesterday, Cyprus EF1 (Prelim of 105 MPH) and the Louetta EF2 (115 MPH)
Relation to downtown Houston
covert finch
Canada is altering their weather alert scales:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/eccc-weather-warning-system-changes-9.6991783
Environment and Climate Change Canada has changed its weather warning system across the country.
General watches and warnings are being replaced with a colour-coded, risk-tiered system so you have a better idea how the forecast will impact you and how you should prepare.
The changes align with recommendations from the World Meteorological Association and follow updates already implemented by 31 weather agencies across Europe.
unborn timber
Notable quake, right next to Anchorage, AK
barren creek
hey everyone, im a geologist, so i felt compelled to check out this channel for obvious reasons
jagged niche
Welcome!
unborn timber
Klein TX EF2 upgraded slightly to 125 MPH (was 115 MPH)
unborn timber
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unborn timber
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unborn timber
https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1994507926661410990?t=U0hhS5tKiv8VZdY1_y0S2w&...
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cloud scroll
Thought this might of interest here:
When a magnitude 8.8 earthquake ripped through the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone on July 29, 2025, it launched a Pacific-wide tsunami – and a rare natural experiment.
NASA and the French space agency’s SWOT satellite happened to pass overhead. The satellite captured the first high-resolution, spaceborne swath of a great subduction-zone tsunami.
https://www.earth.com/news/satellite-captures-the-first-detailed-look-at-a-giant-tsunami/
Abstract (with link to PDF)
https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/tsr/article/5/4/341/718867/SWOT-Satellite-Altimetry-Observations-and-Source
unborn timber
Nevada just had a pretty big false alarm go off in terms of earthquakes, incorrect M6.0 warning issued
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severe kernel
I read a few raspberry pis also picked it up. Wonder what it was
unborn timber
(My initial theory of it being a bunch of smaller earthquakes around sensors also was erroneous btw, One station auto chucked a M3.0 estimation over.... nothing)
(So that's a lil confusing)
unborn timber
Mostly in the middle of nowhere, although i'd like to hear updates from the comically small area of Yakutat, Alaska
(Likely fine, but they probably got rocked a bit)
unborn timber
AK/CAN Earthquake update (since a few hours have passed)
USGS has assessed it as a M7.0 currently,
aftershocks so far are in the M3-M4 range as expected (Although a M5.0 and M5.1 were recorded)
(In the cluster around the red dot- the other ones to the side were much older ones)
Personally- doesn't seem like the M7.0 was a foreshock, based on this data coming in so far,
(Although the science behind trying to figure out what is and isn't a foreshock is still... debatable, but erring on the side of "nothing ever happens" with this one)
aftershock estimations for this specific earthquake,
Fun additional facts, an estimated 100 to 1,000 people felt this to any notable degree, initial reports are suggesting the much lower end of that range.
(Currently 0 reports of notable shaking due to how rural the area was)
Again- haven't heard squat from Yakutat, but again- they're likely fine and possibly the only people who notably felt this to any degree.
(Upwards to like VII on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale if i had to guess, but was likely much lower, potentially to the III-IV range.)
This is one of those events where we get a pass to nerd out about it because absolutely no one got hurt/ inconvenienced from what we can tell currently
(And oddly, like the 2nd/3rd of a intense major** one doin that this year.)
[Edit-** brain flipped to using tornado terminology, oops.]
unborn timber
Notable aftershock (Same reasoning as above, likely very few people felt this, but in hindsight, this entire ridge has been quite active this year, slowly expanding it's range)
If that trend continues, i wouldn't be too shocked to see some light quakes start kickin up closer to Vancouver along the same fault line.
(Likely wouldn't be all that strong-)
unborn timber
"Hokkaido-Sanriku Megaquake advisory issued"- an internal source I have via an earthquake fourm, absolutely trying to get some official verification, (in english)
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unborn timber
jagged niche
Weird having people you know IRL be close enough to actually experience it
unborn timber
Highest recorded tsunami height as of now, 0.5m (50cm/ 19 inches)
(Per https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#8/41.276/142.443/&elem=warn&contents=tsunami&lang=en)
unborn timber
Weird having people you know IRL be close enough to actually experience it
Technically my "boss" felt this one lol
(Freelance research stuff for YT)
jagged niche
Technically my "boss" felt this one lol
two coworkers for me
severe kernel
We're getting another 100 year flood in the PNW
https://bsky.app/profile/cascadiadaily.com/post/3m7nn7fzp422f
unborn timber
shttps://fxtwitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1999129544633029006
severe kernel
Are there any pics of Concrete, WA that youve seen? Skagit county ordered an evacuation of around 75k people yesterday. I think the Skagit River is going to crest at 46 ft in concrete and 42 in Mt Vernon last I checked
I drove through some of it yesterday around noon and it was starting to get bad
unborn timber
Are there any pics of Concrete, WA that youve seen? Skagit county ordered an eva...
Haven't seen anything, sorry, Twitter's been fairly quiet for that area too,
severe kernel
Makes sense. I imagine most evacuated. A friend of mines family lives in Mt Vernon. They had to evacuate
Cascadia Daily News has all their flood coverage outside of their paywall as well
unborn timber
Strong quake near Japan, prelim of M7.0
(Edit- downgraded to M6.5 roughly)
unborn timber
covert finch
I'll admit I don't know where to start to factcheck this one. Any idea if this is based on some modeling or is it pure scaremongering?
https://bsky.app/profile/weatherprof.bsky.social/post/3m7wcbhh63224
unborn timber
I'll admit I don't know where to start to factcheck this one. Any idea if this i...
...Yes, this is a direct pull from ECMWF (as seen in the top left),
This is specifically the 12Z (Zulu) run that was initialized on December 13th, 2025, valid for the given time period (top right)
(If i were to guess, this was pulled from pivotal weather, https://home.pivotalweather.com/)
Excessive rainfall outlook for the 14th, 15th, 16th,
Also of note- the NWS forecast discussion, as per https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
Jeff Berardelli is also a degreed meteorologist out of Tampa FL, specifically for WFLA-TV, and used to be the meteorologist for CBS NY.
unborn timber
As an aside for general "non-thunderstorm specific" type weather,
the Weather Prediction Center will prolly be your best bet (WPC and the SPC are two different "branches" of NOAA)
(In total, there's the AWC- Aviation Weather Center, CPC- Climate Prediction Center, EMC- Enviromental Modeling Center, NCO-(you don't really need to care about this one, internal stuff), NHC- National Hurricane Center, OPC- Ocean Prediction Center [general boat stuff mainly goes here], SPC- Storm Prediction Center, SWPC- Space Weather Prediction Center, and finally, the WPC- Weather Prediction Center)
all of these are under the NOAA
AWC- https://aviationweather.gov/
CPC- https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
EMC- https://emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc.php (This is primarily just research papers tbh about the weather models the others use)
NHC- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
OPC- https://ocean.weather.gov/
SPC- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
SWPC- https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
WPC- https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Confused yet? I haven't even gotten to the more niche subsites some of these use, such as water.noaa.gov (https://water.noaa.gov/) which tracks only flood gauges.
If it's weather/ nature related in some sort- odds are the government has either a branch covering it or a specific site for it)
(There's probably a lot of these i don't even know about)
covert finch
unborn timber
First tornado watch in a bit,
Good ol QLCS setup up top, producin a bit of spin in SW Kentucky,
down in this area the line gets a lot more broken up, which is of note, as that wasn't quite what the initial forecast for today had, (these are somewhat discrete supercells instead of being blobby messes.)
jagged niche
unborn timber
jagged niche
how powerful is that compared to the scale USA uses…? Hold on I’ll google
Ok fuck that’s powerful
unborn timber
how powerful is that compared to the scale USA uses…? Hold on I’ll google
IF is focused around European (usually) tornadoes,
Here's the PDF document from ESSL going into the IF scale
unborn timber
Some contries use a modified version of the IF scale too it gets messy
the underlying purpose is that it's relative to construction (styles, building type, and construction quality in general), atleast the EF scale is
jagged niche
But overall, IF5 ≈ EF5 according to my googling
unborn timber
If you're sheltering in an average house, built to code, you should reliably survive anything under EF4, (key word is should.)
Once you start getting past that range it starts becoming pure luck, as you'll start to see significant debris intrusion/ structure failure.
My common shorthand is "if there's a room you could have rode it out in- (eg- a bathroom/closet), prolly around DOD8, Once you start seeing everything collapse into a pile... DOD9, if the pile is down the block, DOD10.
(As long as it is a decently constructed building and is secured to it's foundation, else that'd be like, DOD5.)
i do like how they've subdivided everything into what we'd just shorthand as the vague "Upper end/ Low end", but they only do this for the lower end of their scale
like if you hear someone say "Upper end EF3", that could be like... anywhere from like 145 or 150 MPH to the limit of the rating itself (165 MPH) tbh, It's really messy,
(By the way, i'm trying to get into the practice of rounding all of the windspeed estimates to the nearest 5 MPH to align with the new EF scale revision that's been in the works since like 2010, still waiting for that to get public.)
unborn timber
Tornado in Illinois
...ight be surprisingly strong- little rare to see that spiraling signal in your CC (bottom half of both screenshots)
(suggests a lot of debris, and a good chunk was lofted quite high)
What seems like another brief strong one up north, near St. Anne, IL
unborn timber
unborn timber
swarm of somewhat notable quakes in northern Canada+ Alaska.
Good couple in the M5-6 range in a quick period
Seems to have calmed down- atleast one of these is legit (Prelim M5.7), still checking to see if all of them are, (Would be a total of 5 of M5+ w/in 20 minutes if so,)
unborn timber
(Again- much better to get the energy out in these swarms over a long period instead of one big quake)
unborn timber
Sorry i've been real quiet on the tornado side of things, working on revamping an old metric for rating tornado outbreaks.. still putting it through the wringer!
(For example- under the current OIS system, the most notable tornado outbreak since 1/1/2020 would have been** March 13–16, 2025**(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_March_13–16,_2025)- 118 tornadoes, ||MOIS-210, OIS-147||
(Under my current modification, it points at May 19–27, 2024, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_sequence_of_May_19–27,_2024)- 248 tornadoes ||MOIS-267.1, OIS-112||
A short explainer.
The current OIS scale only looks at tornadoes rated EF2+ of a given outbreak, (EF2- 2 points, EF3-5 points, EF4-10 points, EF5-15 points)
my modification just includes the lower end, (EFU-0.1 point, EF0-0.5 point, EF1-1 point), which should account for events where more- but weaker- tornadoes occur, doing more damage in theory to a larger area.
working with this, you can then start doing "cursed metrics" like "MOIS/TOR", which... in theory could derive the average intensity of any given tornado out of a given outbreak (you have to look at the points given to each category) only 2 events have come close to having their M/T hit the "EF2 bucket" of 2, and obviously, none are close to the EF3 bucket (of 5 points) as an average. Most are solidly in the 1-2 range, although there are notable events as far down as 0.59![Just above the EF0 bucket of 0.5!].
I'm hoping to work out a MOIS/HOUR system, but i will need to get quite in the weeds for that, hoping to be as precise as possible using radar archives.
Is this a little unhinged? Sure, but i'm hoping some level of pattern can be found if i expand this dataset (theoretically to the 1880's! Would need to get some historians if I go that far)
unborn timber
Notable earthquake, Mexico
Prelim of M6+
Edit- USGS gives it a M6.5, https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000rm3k/executive
unborn timber
So far not seeing anything too concerning in terms of damage/reports (or at all,) lotta people mentioning being woken up by it, (primarily checking posts on Twitter/ FB.)
Probably will be a relatively minor news story (Not ruling out very light damage as of now closer to the epicenter,) , but certainly a way to wake up from a nap.
cloud scroll
Reports of trees/utility polls down and video of buildings shaking in Mexico City per La Jornada and La Reforma. At least one fire is seen in the videos.
unborn timber
Looking at a potential severe weather event (Maybe) Thursday, (Likely) Friday, and (maybe) Saturday.
unborn timber
Strong quake, southern Japan, prelim of M6+
I have to use JQuake for this one as my program doesn't have a lot of stations for that area.
unborn timber
I personally wouldn't expect to see too many strong tornadoes (if any) off a setup like this, but they might be moving quite quickly (45-60 MPH forward speed roughly)
... Primarily a straight line wind threat imo.
mystic wolf
unborn timber
Not really an update to this as we get closer to the event, will forward the discussion though, 5% TOR, 15%WIND, 5% HAIL risks,
Biggest conclusion is that the models are not exactly agreeing and confidence in any more exact forecast is.... limited.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
First tornado for today (imo the models have really not impressed me on this, looks to be a pure blobfest of a day again)
Tornado likely went active roughly around :25, likely stopped doing damage at :32 or :36 and you start seeing (very light) debris fallout.
unborn timber
^Likely had one brief tornado NE of Auburn
jagged niche
@unborn timber Godspeed for us Texans. The power grid gonna implode on us
unborn timber
... Yeah I'm gearing up to take the brunt of it
Last "big snowstorm" we had up here in the Appalachians, we lost electricity for over 2 weeks, caused a genuine crisis around here back then.
jagged niche
Godspeed over there
jagged niche
Dang I’ll have to visit my local Walmart to pick up a tool to scrape ice from my car
After work though
jagged niche
Y'all FEMA is not ready for a winter storm that needs the hurricane hunters deployed
X
tender verge
Yikes! We've got some stuff moving into SW SK tonight 90-100 kph winds, but nothing that will take us out for 2 weeks!
The worst I've experienced in 60 years is a 3-day outage that threatened to go much longer. At breakfast on the 3rd day, they didn't even have an ETA on arrival in our area, let alone on restoration of power. I started rationing the propane for our standby generator (tough at -30C) to give us 2 weeks (1 week is possible at 100% duty cycle). By bedtime, power was back.
unborn timber
This seems to be a pure scientific expedition,
I don't recall them doing this prior, but the data they grab would certainly be useful for improving forecasting going forwards.
jagged niche
https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-activates-state-emergency-response-resources-ahead-of-winter-weather-threat- welp, not good at all
unborn timber
X
bold idol
I am a Psychology and Computer Science student
leaden mountain
I am a Psychology and Computer Science student
Hi! I think you may have clicked on the wrong channel. We have a special channel for #introductions .
jagged niche
jagged niche
unborn timber
Starting to get mooore concerning wording now from some more local offices
mental lotus
All I'm going to be doing Sunday is shoveling snow
unborn timber
Watch out for wind chill btw as we get out of this!
My area might end up feeling closer like -12F on Tuesday
unborn timber
jagged niche
This'll be fun to keep track of (if my power doesn't also get knocked out)
watch ERCOT instantly light up red I’ll be watching too
yes I’ll take every opportunity to shit on ERCOT
wooden wren
<https://poweroutage.us/>
TX at 14k
cloud scroll
US National Weather Center advising flash flood potential in portions of central Texas and the Hill Country as well as near Houston
X
unborn timber
Power outages as of now
There's your ice band, suprisingly straight line of outages so far if you organize by county.
mental lotus
Remember everyone, it's much easier to shovel snow every few hours than waiting for the whole thing to be over
leaden mountain
Depends how long you're prepared to wait? 😉
mental lotus
I have this whole routine where I hang my coat on the heating vent so it's super toasty and it sounds so nice outside when it's snowing
mental lotus
Don't forget to open the door and let the Roomba go play in the snow.
jagged niche
Texas weather go brrrrrt
jagged niche
Don't forget to open the door and let the Roomba go play in the snow.
I’m not letting Clinton The Claymore Roomba outside! He’s a good boy who deserves a good inside of a house
mental lotus
I’m not letting Clinton The Claymore Roomba outside! He’s a good boy who deserve...
But they get to clean so hard. It's their dream.
jagged niche
…who said mine cleans?
opaque silo
@plain blaze that's called deposition, when a gas turns directly into a solid
plain blaze
<@1208580074450985040> that's called deposition, when a gas turns directly into ...
yes it goes by both terms, but I was using a double entendre as it also has critical theory meaning. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0017931020330106
opaque silo
Interesting, I had never heard it called that before
edgy inlet
New York winter storm update: Gov. Hochul restricts travel, deploys National Guard
sullen shale
Remember everyone, it's much easier to shovel snow every few hours than waiting ...
Note on this, snow shoveling can increase risks of heart attacks due to sudden exertion:
https://newsroom.heart.org/news/snow-shoveling-can-be-hazardous-to-your-heart
mental lotus
Yep! Less strain with frequent shoveling is safer I think
grizzled storm
Ja be careful, how's the Roomba
mental lotus
Ja be careful, how's the Roomba
It's so happy, just like the time I took it to the beach and let it clean all the sand
unborn timber
Power outages as of now
unborn timber
Over half a million reportedly w/out power currently
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Nearing 1 million power outages
90% of Davidson is out- (TN county holding Nashville)
97% of Hickman (also in TN)
unborn timber
Brief tornado NW of De Funiak Springs, FL
languid belfry
mental lotus
The dogs are having the best time
edgy inlet
unborn timber
Just had my first tree "explosion",
right outside my window, real loud pop, can confirm, sounds exactly like a muffled shotgun blast.
unborn timber
It gets to -15 (C) today,
... Lotta trees fell last night from the icing, going out to take pics
unborn timber
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/dataviewer New very cool tool dropped today
I can now pull historical graphs like this!
unborn timber
(Will say, a little visually confusing at first glance, even after having many months to poke at this)
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
I can now pull historical graphs like this!
(We are in the "inbetween" periods of standard severe weather coverage, but- more time to look at cool data like this)
unborn timber
Notable quake, Myanmar. (very iffy on magnitude here, very few stations)
real lynx
Sahara dust enhancement in cloud tops from 04.02. 2026 8:00 UTC, HRV and day snow fog MTG products https://view.eumetsat.int/productviewer
real lynx
Enjoy this absolutely stunning alluvial fan in Albania which I found while working on leech list https://www.google.com/maps/@42.2337996,19.4558059,14013m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDIwNC4wIKXMDSoKLDEwMDc5MjA3MUgBUAM%3D
cursive drum
Ice on Lake Erie broke up today, several better animations out there I think though... Right above Cleveland
unborn timber
Little bit of a tornado threat today, looking at afternoon -> overnight
... Imo, if anything really tries to get strong it'll probably be closer to the MS river (Tylertown area?)
Today is primarily a straight-line wind and a minor hail threat.
unborn timber
QLCS tornado spam in Louisiana currently.
..wow, KPOE got a few good scans of a few very brief spinups.
unborn timber
meager plover
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDAZWxehMAI 4K live view of Mayon Volcano, one of the world’s most active and iconic stratovolcanoes, currently exhibiting heightened volcanic activity.
This 24/7 ultra-high-definition (4K) livestream provides a continuous real-time view of Mayon’s summit and upper slopes during an active phase marked by lava dome growth, frequent rockfalls, and occasional pyroclastic density currents (PDCs).
On January 6, 2026, the DOST-PHIVOLCS raised Mayon’s status to Alert Level 3, indicating an increased tendency toward a hazardous eruption. Monitoring data confirm ongoing effusive magmatic eruption, with slow but accelerating extrusion of degassed magma at the summit dome. Dome instability has led to hundreds of rockfall events, some displaying nighttime incandescence, and PDCs affecting gullies on the volcano’s southeastern flank.
This livestream is intended for public awareness, education, and scientific interest. It allows viewers to observe real-time changes in volcanic behavior, including dome collapse events, glowing rockfalls at night, ash emissions, and evolving weather conditions around the volcano.
⚠️ Safety Notice
A 6-km Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) remains in effect. Entry into this zone is strongly discouraged due to the risk of rockfalls, lava flows, PDCs (uson), ashfall, and other volcanic hazards. Aviation authorities advise pilots to avoid airspace near the summit.
All interpretations of activity should rely on official advisories from PHIVOLCS and local authorities. More info: https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/
tropic leaf
I think this might be the most relevant spot to put this here but looks like an interesting conversation has been taking place
https://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3meyp4e4jsc2p
tropic leaf
I think this might be the most relevant spot to put this here but looks like an ...
tropic leaf
related
https://bsky.app/profile/gbrumfiel.bsky.social/post/3mf2uwdii4c2k
https:...
Independent experts did not immediately agree with that assessment. The ratios of different seismic waves is consistent with an explosion, said Ben Dando, the head of seismology and verification at NORSAR, a Norwegian organization that watches for possible nuclear tests. But, he added, the signal was weak, and it was recorded at a single station. Based on those limitations and others, he believes that it's still possible that this could have been a natural event.
"I would not say that there's really strong conclusive evidence," Dando told NPR. "We can't really confirm or deny whether a nuclear test took place at this point."
tender verge
Stuff like this makes me twitch. I'm a retired volunteer firefighter in grassland/cropland country. I hate prairie fires so so much. From "let me grab a shovel" to "holy shit!" in the time it takes to get said shovel.
While I was still active, nearly 100% of all wildland fire training was on forest fires. Prairie fires are a completely different beast and most of what we claim to know of their behavior seems to be a kind of hand-me-down knowledge as opposed to derived from formal study.
unborn timber
Wind gusts for the area are consistently being reported in the mid/high 50's to low 60's (MPH)
X
unborn timber
A different wildfire is causing quite the massive evacuation of Woodward, OK. (Population of ~11,000)
Warning specifically notes the southern half of the city currently.
Chaser in Woodward, OK reporting the fire's jumped 22nd ST.
unborn timber
unborn timber
So, bit of a tornado threat today for parts of the Midwest/ Ohio Valley
The MD notes that some decently strong tornadoes could occur, but imo this is the type of setup that if anything strays from ideal conditions, you won't see anything (High ceiling, extremely low floor type risk)
unborn timber
unborn timber
From initial damage reports (from the general public), Damage is quite minor to Bloomington itself, luckily.
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Ham_BklynWx/status/2024624690413649934
I was able to geolocate this to (38.911662542737545, -87.75957796881993) thanks to this vid- https://www.facebook.com/reel/1575586390597517
Does help with figuring out where everything was specifically moved from (eg- that red shed on it's side)
(I have passed this on to the local NWS office in that area so they can survey this area if they were not able to (due to a lack of info on where this was in the first place.)
unborn timber
Bloomington tornado given an EF2 prelim (120 MPH), May change [in either direction] as damage surveys continue
Could have been real bad if this storm produced a tornado 10-20 minutes later instead.
unborn timber
Meanwhile NYC is not having a fun time with this snow system
unborn timber
unborn timber
Short updater about the forecast displaying change i've been talking about on and off recently
unborn timber
So, bit of a tornado threat today for parts of the Midwest/ Ohio Valley
So far- best tornado footage i've seen of any of the tornadoes that day.
(And it's from Styropyro of all people.)
cloud scroll
US Embassy in Peru issues weather alert (link)
The Government of Peru declared a State of Emergency (Level 4) due to heavy rainfall and landslides in the following regions in Peru: Amazonas, Áncash, Arequipa, Cajamarca, Ica, Junín, La Libertad, Lambayeque, Lima, Madre de Dios, Piura, Puno, San Martín, and Tumbes.
Peru’s weather service (SENAMHI) forecasts a short break in the heavy rains after February 27 but warns that intense rainfall may return between March 5-6. Peru’s El Niño monitoring commission (ENFEN) reports that the coastal El Niño weather pattern could continue through November 2026
unborn timber
X
cursive drum
To be more clear, the dark red glow of the eclipsed moon in the Earth's shadow will be more pronounced according to this chart in North America.
unborn timber
The new outlook graphic (and next two severe days, starting w/ tomorrow.)
You may notice that new key in the bottom right, changes per specific risk category you pick
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Southern Michigan*
... Likely a decently notable (and unexpected to a degree) tornado..
Look at how quick that spins up.
covert finch
(Michigan?)
unborn timber
..yes, apologies, just got up from the alert.
still eepy brain, flipped part of the abbreviation apparently from MI to WI.
For context of why i was caught off guard- first likely strong tornado today occured in the red box.
Was not expecting a notable tornado for that area (hatched areas.)
So unfortunately there were 2 fatalities last night in NW Oklahoma from one of the more notable tornadoes, both from the same vehicle, prime example of the significant degree of damage these events can cause.
Fatalities not seen, but their vehicle (a sedan) is.
covert finch
For context of why i was caught off guard- first *likely strong* tornado today o...
Agreed - the forecast map looks really rough for the bottom quarter of Wisconsin. Got really worried when I couldn't remember where Edwardsburg, Wisconsin was 🙂
unborn timber
And the main wave that i was waiting for is going to be starting soon™, probably next few hours for NE TX and eastern OK. (This watch will likely be expanded as the system continues.)
Meanwhile back in MI- a likely strong tornado is close (if not going into) Three Rivers, MI.
unborn timber
(original source- https://www.facebook.com/reel/1477120963762962, rotated 90 degrees.)
Camera is at (41.934238, -85.650751)
Horizontal vortex reported. Likely very violent as this tracks into Union City, MI
X
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Per a local resident- (Union City area.)
unborn timber
This one might be an issue in a looong term view, E of OKC.
Union City damage per https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1HVvJfHKJW/
Area affected. (42.057216, -85.184051)
unborn timber
Crossposting my thoughts from another server, the NWS doesn't usually have these pre-preliminary statements.
jagged niche
So the tornado is extra bad if they are saying all that. Fuck
unborn timber
very quick preliminary assessment of at least 150 MPH EF3 damage being noted for this tornado, assessments are still ongoing and are not expected to wrap up fully for atleast a few days.
unborn timber
Severe weather threat for Tuesday
unborn timber
https://x.com/i/status/2030946698495951339
For a minor scale of context of how weird this one was from a storm chasing perspective.
Union City damage itself is (comparatively) quite minor,
This tornado touched down, at ~4:35, started doing EF3 damage <90 seconds later (~4:36) for a very brief period, then tracked into town as it weakened and lifted at ~4:42 local.
Tracked around 4 miles in total over ~7 minutes (~34 MPH forward speed.)
unborn timber
That's a unique one- hardly felt on surface, was fairly deep
*really not expecting any damage, purely a "huh, that's neat" type quake,
unborn timber
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000s39n/executive
USGS puts it at a M6, 373.0 km deep (~230 mi)
unborn timber
First time we see a CIG2 being issued (for hail- decent confidence in seeing 2 inch [+] hailstones)
unborn timber
Slight update, CIG2 added to the tornado outlook, indicating that intense (EF4+) tornadoes are possible.
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
Could easily be quite a destructive hailstorm for the southern half of the risk.
unborn timber
First cell in the northern segment of the risk looks like it really wants to produce a tornado.
unborn timber
very strong tornado ongoing, Kankakee
X
OKC might get hit too here by a different cell.
This is looking to be a major tornado day for the Midwest,
gritty sonnet
***very*** strong tornado ongoing, Kankakee
Connor croft says it looked >1 mile wide
unborn timber
Tagged as "south of Kankakee" per https://www.facebook.com/reel/1626546878499180
gritty sonnet
Tagged as "south of Kankakee" per <https://www.facebook.com/reel/162654687849918...
Looks absolutely terrible
unborn timber
Possibly at 41.087719, -87.830621
gritty sonnet
Freddy McKinney confirms the Kankakee wedge has recondensed, again roughly a mile wide
unborn timber
unborn timber
Tagged as near Lake Village https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=854729460951560&set=pcb.854729894284850
Chaser reports fatalities at this location.
unborn timber
OKC likely lucked out- not ruling out they didn't get a very brief+weak spinup, but not expecting any notable damage at all for that area.
Meanwhile- the Kankakee-> Lake Village-> ect cell is still producing tornadoes,
X
Knox, Indiana is about to get hit if this keeps up.
TOR-E issued for Knox. Highest possible warning.
X
Looks like it went slightly north of town thankfully
X
unborn timber
Tagged as near Lake Village <https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=854729460951560...
Geolocated to 41.123127, -87.505614
Passed on to NWSChicago (office in charge for area.)
cursive drum
unborn timber
Looks like a decently strong QLCS setup is forecasted late Sunday afternoon.
unborn timber
Monday looks to be particularly notable as well.
cursive drum
Forests may glow with coronae slightly in thunderstorms https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL119591
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
X
real lynx
Mesoscale vortex in Libia - Suomi NPP true color + MTG dust product https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=14.825692317947102,26.11282657713943,28.093772699042802,33.61758454269668&l=Reference_Labels_15m(hidden),Reference_Features_15m(hidden),Coastlines_15m(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&lg=true&t=2026-03-18-T15%3A42%3A00Z / https://view.eumetsat.int/productviewer?v=default
remote pelican
https://x.com/HankF330ToGo/status/2034040468711804937
How do they figure this out?
unborn timber
How do they figure this out?
cursive drum
Three active presumably radar indicated tornado warnings in Ohio right now... Here is the southern Ohio radar loop gif https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KILN_loop.gif
unborn timber
unborn timber
https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2038601234597216382
..archive since the tweet was deleted, likely got some pushback from the company he currently works for 😅
unborn timber
there is somewhat of a tsunami threat associated w/ this quake,
(It is currently 2308)
unborn timber
there is somewhat of a tsunami threat associated w/ this quake,
(It is current...
Slight update to the advisory
Deaths reported, multiple building collapses documented.
Cannot share due to very apparent graphic content in the footage,
cloud igloo
I’m chilling listening to tree limbs drop into the parking lot, ice storm
unborn timber
X
a little iffy due to the low number of stations here, would not be shocked to see this be downgraded to ~upper M5
(eg 5.5-5.9)
unborn timber
yeup, USGS prelim M5.5
unborn timber
X
cloud igloo
Imma just let yall know- and I won’t be the one to make it happen- but when the Juan de Fuca plate decides it wants to brrrtttt dip a bit, be careful
unborn timber
Keeping an eye on this odd merger, personally.
(apologies for the odd jump cut half way through, new scan came in, and Radarscope for some reason draws it before going back to where the loop was.)
unborn timber
Keeping an eye on this odd merger, personally.
Well it produced a very short lived tornado (was active for... ~2 minutes at most,)
but this storm will need to be watched as it tracks over Bloomington
unborn timber
Bloomington area is likely good now from the lead cell
but another cell further back is now acting up
unborn timber
^didnt do much in the long term
cloud igloo
I’m thinking there are lots of dads checking on their sump pumps rn. It won’t stop raining, the ground is completely saturated already, and it’s very flat by me
unborn timber
Well that's an odd one.
devout stump
that looks relatively close to uluru?
leaden mountain
Yes, Uluru is just south of Yulara, which measured the strongest on that list on the right.
unborn timber
that looks relatively close to uluru?
Estimated epicenter is at (-26.008, 130.7101) which puts it here
leaden mountain
Well I was wondering about the epicenter, but it looks like it is in SA after all...
unborn timber
probably had some fairly moderate/strong shaking, little to no damage really expected to any structures really. (if any are unfortunate enough to be directly in the area)
leaden mountain
Also VERY sparsely populated.
unborn timber
Pure "huh, weird" quake, 2nd or 3rd one this year.
USGS confirms the quake happened, prelim of M5.5
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000smm5/executive
leaden mountain
Estimated epicenter is at (-26.008, 130.7101) which puts it here
This makes the distance to Uluru 80 km.
unborn timber
Very long term risk being looked at for western TX/OK, too far out for specifics but something to keep an eye on
unborn timber
Very long term risk being looked at for western TX/OK, too far out for specifics...
Update on how this is looking now, looks like we're in for a decent period of severe weather, starting on Saturday and continuing to atleast Tuesday (Models are not agreeing on Wednesday)
cloud igloo
Update on how this is looking now, looks like we're in for a decent period of se...
I thought I’d lost my marbles when I saw this but it makes sense I guess; different color gradients for separate days of outlook due to uncertainty
unborn timber
I thought I’d lost my marbles when I saw this but it makes sense I guess; differ...
This color scale is only for general risk of severe weather, all 4 days have the bare minimum confidence of 15%
You'll only see 15 or 30 on this, not really a gradient
Whenever we get into Day 3, Day 2, Day 1 ranges is when you start seeing the other colorset for percentages
Here's a note in their documentation for their methodology for creating these longer range forecasts
(Of note for terminology, today is marked as "Day 1", tomorrow is always "Day 2", etc, so Day 4 is three days out from today.)
cloud igloo
This color scale is only for *general* risk of severe weather, all 4 days have t...
Right, I was referencing the green/yellow/etc gradient for general severe weather as that’s what I’m used to, but it seems like they chose yellow/orange after day 4
unborn timber
Yeah, not sure why they went with that other than to potentially differentiate it than the 1-3 day
(i might actually email them about that)
(...after this event obviously, they might be a little busy now.)
cloud igloo
Lol
They used to issue polygons I guess, and got way too heavy handed with the rating scale
So a moderate risk now would have been severe then, and it ended up being taken less seriously
unborn timber
Well, it's been in this format since rouughly the 2010s?
cloud igloo
I can’t fact check you out of personal experience tbh but you’re probably right
unborn timber
Looks like ~2011 (to maybe 2014), they added in the Marginal and Enhanced areas
(I'll have to dig through archives and figure out when exactly)
unborn timber
Personal (with no credentials, pure weather nerd hypothesis here) judgement is that Sunday-Monday looks to be the days with potentially the higher threat ceiling,
unborn timber
Update on how this is looking now, looks like we're in for a decent period of se...
..However for Monday (the 13th), I am more concerned about MN/ WI, just outside that 15% confidence as of now, would defer to the SPC themselves* as we get closer to the event, but i'd keep it in mind that these risk areas can change, and isn't just limited to these areas, (<15% extends out in theory, as an example.)
(edit for clarity)
I'll hold off on throwing out ballpark guesses that could easily swing 15-30 miles in any direction given on what specific run the models are on until we get closer to the event (and again- i'll likely defer to the SPC themselves at that point, they're the professionals.)
I just feel like it is of slight concern that the risk might be slightly misconstrued for that area during this upcoming event,
unborn timber
Day 3 forecast
Days 4-7
Monday's 15% confidence swath was extended a decent way north, as expected-
Tuesday is also looking to potentially be an upper end day off of current data- i'd be most concerned about Central Iowa (~Around Des Moines) to northern Illinois, all the way to the Great Lakes (~ Chicago)
unborn timber
Full discussion,
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Ooooh nvm I don’t know if PWAT is a useful stat
Precipitable Water (measuring water vapor in the atmosphere over that area), good chance of flooding conditions when you tack it on with the rest of the environment
But usually PWAT would be used more for looking at hail+ rain risks,
(Which for most of the metro, will be the likely highest risk factor.)
I am personally concerned on if 1-2 storms form in that area,
Ideally, you want either 0 (No risk,) or 20,000 (they smother and suffocate eachother, effectively no risk, still have to worry about flooding+ hail, but no tornado threat)
if 1-2 storms form in that corridor they will try really hard to produce a strong tornado, and it could track for quite a while if conditions really align.
cloud igloo
Tuesday we shall see 🙂
unborn timber
Statistically speaking, most likely outcome(and best)- not much happens tomorrow,
worst case scenario. one or two tornadoes of decent intensity.
cloud igloo
It’s the “nothing ever happens” vs “craps hitting the fan” dichotomy
unborn timber
There's still a fair few ways this can "fail", among the ways i said above, so we're again in a "low floor high ceiling" type of risk, i would not be entirely shocked to see a theoretical 2-5% CIG2 come out for the first time.
cloud igloo
There's still a fair few ways this can "fail", among the ways i said above, so ...
“Low floor high ceiling” is the same way I put it, only I said it much worse
unborn timber
Will say, this new model run- real good news, tornado threat's practically gone this run, hoping it stays that way (effectively hoping the prior runs were outliers, not this one.)
either way, Minneapolis itself is probably dealing with hail+ a fair bit of rain if i had to guess, could get quite pricey off that alone tbh.
X
...Documented tornado in California today, bit of an oddity
cloud igloo
I’m not worried about severe weather per se
unborn timber
Actually slightly relating to a case study i have underway, where a tornado W of the Rockies is a good sign that a severe weather event E of the Rockies 2-3 days later is particularly notable-
(Still testing this hypothesis, still completely unfounded officially as of now.)
cloud igloo
Actually slightly relating to a case study i have underway, where a tornado W of...
Real data gatherers only
unborn timber
https://x.com/iembot_sto/status/2043451446432068023
unborn timber
TX/OK Tornado probs upgraded slightly (2%->2% CIG1)
sullen shale
already have covered parking, but rescheduled a doctor's appt bc this storm looking kinda sppoky
unborn timber
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Forgot to talk about this here- but for the Minneapolis metro, tornado threat appears to now be be near non-existent, but hail chances are still present unfortunately.
It looks like the (forecasted) event trended slightly back south after a day or two up north,
unborn timber
cloud igloo
And I’m watching this storm get cracking
unborn timber
Ottawa, Kansas may get a close call, marked as weather spotter confirmed tornado in the warning text,
unborn timber
Tornado in Ottawa, KS
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Likely a fairly strong tornado started near/in Ottawa and is continuing NE.
covert finch
https://fxtwitter.com/TannerChasing/status/2043834734795493439
Another video of the Minnesota tornado
https://bsky.app/profile/paulhuttnerweather.bsky.social/post/3mjg3ncpahk2p
(or is it a different one?)
unborn timber
(or is it a different one?)
W/b the same storm, might not be the same tornado- i know that cell produced a good few quick ones as it tracked from the Truman arae towards the Amboy area.
Ground surveys over the next week or so will clarify that 😅 , very hectic few hours.
Likely tornado ongoing near Mound City, KS
Strong tornado ongoing, just S of Kansas City.
unborn timber
Likely tornado ongoing near Mound City, KS
Likely a new tornado from this one- didn't see a CC drop on the 1:30:32 scan, (#1 likely ended S of Pleasanton, KS at around 1:27:50Z, #2 likely started ~ 1:33:30Z, E of Pleasanton, KS)
unborn timber
Likely a new tornado from this one- didn't see a CC drop on the 1:30:32 scan, (#...
Estimated path of (what i suspect to be) two tornados near Mound City and Pleasanton, KS-
I'd expect damage from the S side of Mound City around that lake.
unborn timber
Today's tornado forecast.
unborn timber
Today's tornado forecast.
..already outdated, apologies,
5% in OK extended to KS, CIG2 added to IA/WI/IL
unborn timber
unborn timber
Also- this caught me a little off guard, decent shake for Canada
Little to no damage would be expected from this, but probably caught a few people off guard.
unborn timber
X
cursive drum
Do you know if they distribute those products anywhere else than X?
sullen shale
They're also on the .gov website:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0419.html
and there's a nice way to navigate them just above the mappings 🙂
cursive drum
Yesss thank you so much
unborn timber
Yesss thank you so much
Just a heads up though that there will usually be somewhat of a delay between the twitter post going up and the site actually updating to have the same info (Twitter version is usually 1-2 minutes quicker for some reason.)
unborn timber
X
I missed this earlier, but the watch for IA/WI/IN is 80/60, that's fairly high
unborn timber
Ottawa KS tornado prelim 125 MPH EF2
Hillsdale KS prelim 115 MPH EF2
Mound City has an EF1 DI near it but the prelim isn't quite done yet
cursive drum
Most all of Michigan is under a flood watch their doesn't seem to be a specific, singular product that says this outside of this map? And each of the local offices of course https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/
unborn timber
Most all of Michigan is under a flood watch their doesn't seem to be a specific,...
Ah, that'd actually be under (atleast partially) the Excessive Rainfall Forecast because it's warning about Flash Floods,
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
(chaotic a bit i know, lol)
unborn timber
Most all of Michigan is under a flood watch their doesn't seem to be a specific,...
But yeah, for some of those, there's not really a seperated "split" product to view,
cursive drum
Thank you so much sorry to make you my NWS tutor I think I just could've googled more but I certainly appreciate your help!
unborn timber
It is somewhat weird because the NWS sorta half gave up on having the general public use most of the site
and usually relies on communication via their twitter pages/ office specific pages
cloud igloo
I missed this earlier, but the watch for IA/WI/IN is 80/60, that's fairly high
Let’s get it
unborn timber
Notable tornado likely ongoing W of Union Center, WI
Upgraded to PDS, the NWS is confident that this is a strong one.
Very rough centerpoint calculations- hopefully missed the small town to the north,
Very long term, Milwaukee might be under the gun from the cell by Watertown.
very rough gist of the terrain this one tracked through- this could (and likely is) off by ~0-1 mile in any direction, as these scans were elevated.
cloud igloo
***very*** rough gist of the terrain this one tracked through- this could (and l...
Any expert advice if I DM my area?
unborn timber
TBH, a more "up to date" minute by minute play would likely be covered by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpf7ssNZQXs
cloud igloo
I’m watching Max Velocity
unborn timber
I am bogged down with cataloguing potential damage paths a bit rn
unborn timber
I’m watching Max Velocity
That'll be good too
unborn timber
Yeah there's a good chance a big one tries to form W of Milwaukee,
cloud igloo
Yup, not looking great
cloud igloo
If you're curious about current flights.
Nice, good info
unborn timber
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X
Wording's a bit scuffed- tornado occurred in Mexico- we're using Del Rio TX as a reference point
Big tornado W of Milwaukee, WI
Might have been a very brief but notable tornado, lost all signature of it by the time the 3rd timestamp came around
downtown Milwaukee now under a warning from this one incase it cycles real quick
unborn timber
Big tornado W of Milwaukee, WI
the 1 frame of notable debris (23:27:39 Z), was gone by 23:31:13
Working out the math here- the longest this tornado could have been active for is from 23:24:26- 23:31:13 (~7 minutes),
Although i would go much lower to ~ 23:27:40 for that endstamp as there wasn't any sign of debris by that 3rd timestamp. (~3 minutes)
One of the multiple tornadoes over the past hour, very astonishing footage of this one dying out
cloud igloo
https://fxtwitter.com/PappenheimWx/status/2044202003291664856
Beautiful
unborn timber
I think Milwaukee mostly avoided a bullet off this one, i do not think this storm's going to produce another tornado before it gets over the Great Lakes (if at all)
X
cursive drum
Radar indicated one in central Ohio, Licking, Johnstown, New Albany in a system northeast of Columbus. I don't think there is as much energy here as these other systems mentioned
unborn timber
Credible reports of a complete structure failure north of Union City, WI, i have an image but no source of said image, i can verify it's the house but... again, i dont know who took it?
UNKNOWN SOURCE- remind me to double back on this and really find who took this
but this is at 43.690434, -90.293082
^my main concern is that it looks cropped from something (video?)
unborn timber
LOUD video OTUS Project flies a 360 degree camera (via a drone) into a tornado from today,
||https://x.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/2044248134067306579||
^broke the embed intentionally and formatted it like that to hopefully protect your ears, or give you a heads up.
It's not graphic in the slightest, just harmful in a different way to the viewer.
wide summit
^broke the embed intentionally and formatted it like that to *hopefully* protect...
Thank you for that warning! I should have heeded it more 😂 I see what you mean though, it's very loud.
That's a really cool video!
unborn timber
Next two forecasted days (today+ tomorrow) should be somewhat "calmer"- and i will use that to get some rest,
(General outlook+ tornado probs)
Friday looks like it may be of note.
(General outlook+ risk of hazardous conditions, [wind, hail, and/or tornadoes.])
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/youngwx07/status/2044230211915354453?s=46
Prelim of 140 MPH EF3
unborn timber
Today's tornado probs,
cloud igloo
I’m getting sick of this weather now
covert finch
It does seem like the weather dislikes the driftless area in particular.
unborn timber
I’m getting sick of this weather now
If it helps i'm looking much more at IL for tornadoes today (mainly the 2% and 5% CIG1 parts), so like Peoria, Bloomington, Springfield,
And i'm not exactly confident they'll really be strong tornadoes even possible today (maybe 1 if everything lines up perfectly), but this s/b much more of a wind threat today as these storms congeal into a line.
(We might see a 60%+ special upgrade during the event, will be the first time that this new system's seen a derecho-esque* event
(*Derechos are "officially" classified after the fact, and require some weirdly specific width+ path length conditions.)
Image #1- all you really need to read if you're looking in,
Image #2- pure in the weeds/ more specific discussion.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
(We might see a 60%+ special upgrade during the event, will be the first time th...
Slight update- they added a CIG2 area for their wind forecast, which does bump the event up to a MDT day for KS/MO
^CIG2 for wind probs means that the SPC is somewhat confident that these storms in this area could produce wind gusts of >70 MPH (but likely not >90, but cannot be ruled out.)
X
unborn timber
https://www.kaaltv.com/live/ First tornado for today- S of Rochester, MN
per 511mn.org
covert finch
Yeah, hat tip to @quaint flame that Minnesota has a massive number of road cameras. If there's reports of tornadoes there's a chance it's getting streamed by MnDOT.
unborn timber
X
quaint flame
Yeah, hat tip to <@438858079161810956> that Minnesota has a massive number of ro...
https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-269.17187,10.30191,33.17188,75.58165
FAA Weather cams might be useful too
unborn timber
Another one near I-90.
Yeah that's a strong one near Marion MN,
Bogged down w/ logging paths, refer to the NWS for more updates. Event's kicking off much more than i originally expected.
The strong one's probably gone by now, but there's a lot of "areas of note" that may have produced very quick spinups.
This is very bad.
Pick a storm, it's rotating, and i'd say 10% of those have already produced a tornado
covert finch
All in that same area of SE Minnesota?
unborn timber
Split, se MN, ne IA, nw IL
Also parts of sw WI and ne KS.
(Part of state in lowercase, state in uppercase.)
Likely had another strong tornado just miss Plainview, MN.
We are currently at 13 tornado warnings, 3 confirmed as of now. (Not including tornadoes that have lifted.)
unborn timber
Another one from this one cell, W of Waumandee, WI
Also likely strong as it passes between there and Cream, WI.
This is unfortunately likely a violent one as it tracks over some farms along County Road EE, E of Cream, WI.
This may hit Montana, WI, or come really close to it
Strong tornado likely in Lena, IL right now.
cloud igloo
Let’s go
unborn timber
This is one of those days where i'd be amazed if there wasn't a fatality, especially for the tornado that went between Cream and Waumandee, WI.
cloud igloo
2.5 mile wide debris signature is off the charts
covert finch
2.5 mile wide debris signature is off the charts
Is that the one in northern Wisconsin? NWS is putting out warnings up there; it's mostly rural but there's a large Mennonite population there.
unborn timber
~80 MPH wind gusts going into Ottawa, KS
They were hit by a tornado a few days ago
X
covert finch
Roundup of what happened in SE Minnesota:
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/04/17/tornado-sightings-and-damage-near-rochester-weekend-chill-ahead
unborn timber
Right in a populated area.
Luckily- fairly light damage seen so far in Belton, KS
(Source- https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1FToqpFehn/)
unborn timber
Ponca City, OK might have been hit too by a quick spinup
would have gone through the southern side of the city.
unborn timber
Milwaukee WI got spared again, quick spinup lifted just prior to town.
unborn timber
Milwaukee WI got spared again, quick spinup lifted just prior to town.
From 00:58:43 Z to 1:02:11
unborn timber
Hopefully things are winding down somewhat, should be transitioning more into a straight-line wind risk... im going to try and get some sleep
cloud igloo
Hopefully things are winding down *somewhat*, should be transitioning more into ...
Thanks for the hard work; we appreciate ya
slow jasper
***UNKNOWN SOURCE***- remind me to double back on this and really find who took ...
Couldn't tell if you found the source for this, pinging in case u still wanted a reminder, apologies if i misunderstood
unborn timber
Couldn't tell if you found the source for this, pinging in case u still wanted a...
Next post down I did
X
unborn timber
This is very bad.
https://fxtwitter.com/ryanhallyall/status/2045579866725097929
(For context- i sent the quoted message at ~2:58 CDT)
unborn timber
...might have another event to look at come Thursday
cloud igloo
https://x.com/i/status/2046140241824587944
I’ve seen 7.7, suspected foreshock
unborn timber
Alright, got quite the doozy of an update here, bear with me.
unborn timber
...might have another event to look at come Thursday
First off- Thursday, looking at somewhat of a more "general annoyance" threat
Secondly,
Thursday may be the start of another multi-day severe weather event mostly for the OK/AR/TX sort of area up until atleast Monday, possibly Tuesday?
unborn timber
X
Funny statline for 2026 so far, California has had more observed tornadoes than Dixie Alley's had warnings
(This will very likely change by the end of next week.)
jagged niche
huh, its always facinating to see em form live
unborn timber
Pineland, GA fire. (Currently estimated at ~8,900 acres)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Today's overview
unborn timber
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unborn timber
Yeah it's lookin like this will be real damn powerful tornado, and it's very deviant, this is a very scary one
X
unborn timber
Might have lifted just before the small town luckily, lot of empty farmland in that area so it's really hard to tell where exactly it is via radar.
unborn timber
Notable tornado went through the Vance Airforce base in Enid, OK
X
Dear lord.
TOR-E issued.
I think it did a loop JUST south of Enid,
unborn timber
a little refined and very scuffed estimated centerpoint track.
(The more "?" i have on a tag, the less certain i am that it is of the tornado and could be debris fallout)
unborn timber
Some very bad damage reported around (36.336238, -97.888136)
(very early in the path as it crossed the 81.)
Closest i could line it up.
(Source- https://fxtwitter.com/K13News/status/2047506951370617112)
unborn timber
Managed to aquire a (much) higher quality of the 360 pan video,
unborn timber
Video starts looking at the entrance of Gray Ridge (around 36.339671, -97.888849 ), just E of Vance AFB
My charting using that flyover w/ my "Threat To Life" system (because i cannot account for how well constructed these homes may have been)
unborn timber
https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/2047715200359428302/photo/1
NWSNorman already indicating EF3+ for this area
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
The loops have been added (and how close the first one came to hitting extreme southern Enid.)
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/michaelwx6/status/2047474905420042634
This moment on the map corelates w/ the replied video for the Braman OK EF1
unborn timber
Today's severe weather outlook+ tornado probs
(Hail driven MDT, tornado probs aren't quite that high, but if storms do fire off for eastern Oklahoma it won't be pretty.)
And closer zoom for OK itself for general context.
unborn timber
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covert finch
Some recent news about the Camp Mystic floods in Texas last year:
https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-camp-mystic-c7c71d2431612bcbdaab83eaf0a170d4
unborn timber
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unborn timber
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unborn timber
Dangerous conditions in the short term for Fort Worth, TX.
If you are in or near Fort Worth TX, 90 (+) MPH straight line winds are about to roll close if not through the western part of the area.
unborn timber
Likely an ongoing tornado heading into majorly populated areas, NW of Fort Worth, TX.
X
X
Current radar frame, slight right hand turn, main threat has shifted to Fort Worth itself.
Also associated w/ this storm, 70 MPH wind gusts+ ~2 inch hail,
Even w/ the tornado threat aside this still would be quite the damaging event for the city
No longer an observed tornado, focused more on the wind+hail threat for the city now.
X
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Hopefully everything starts winding down fairly soon, especially after the heart attack that was the Fort Worth situation,
Some damage reports coming in from that storm, but s better picture will come in the morning.
unborn timber
X
https://www.facebook.com/reel/4424696071121358/?s=single_unit
Source- Charles Peek, Sycamore KS
unborn timber
Downgraded from PDS before it got into the city, not even marked as Observed atm,
unborn timber
unborn timber
Er, the SPC is going live on YT in about 10 minutes to talk about and answer questions about today's event, this is a first.
unborn timber
That stream had a few hiccups but overall was a pretty good first test run, I personally hope they continue doing those- seeing them answer live questions from the general public was a plus.
jagged niche
A coworker of mine is sheltering due to the tornados. Wild knowing someone affected by thid
unborn timber
A coworker of mine is sheltering due to the tornados. Wild knowing someone affec...
TBH- low odds that this first one (straggler from last night) prodcues anything of note, but i'm worried it may make certain people think the threat is entirely over today,
It's the next wave that this watch and the focus is currently on
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
X
cloud igloo
I think I need to set a boundary with my coworker cuz when we talk tornadoes, we go off
jagged niche
I think I need to set a boundary with my coworker cuz when we talk tornadoes, we...
You shouldn’t lol. Invite more people to the convo
unborn timber
X
jagged niche
@unborn timber figured you’d appreciate. Getting alerts via text
unborn timber
Heads up for most of this event so far down south- still got the concerning environment, but no storms to use said environment as of now,
If something starts up it'll be watched like a hawk, but for most of the "main" risk area today (Mainly around St. Louis), i'd say that area certainly underperformed today luckily, but more eyes are now veering south to NE Arkansas, W Tennessee, and SW Kentucky.
(But personally, if those issues continue, that area will also see a very similar outcome.)
jagged niche
Cowabunga it is. The storm in DFW went from watch to warn in 30 minutes. This… this’ll be interesting at minimum
unborn timber
QLCS tornado tracking into Trenton, IL
And it either died off or took a very hard turn, either way, decently confident that town's safe from this specific one, lost all standard radar indicators that a tornado w/b active here.
Another one to the E of Germantown, IL (roughly same area), heading towards Beckemeyer.
jagged niche
Closest hook echo to me
unborn timber
Quite the long tracker.
Estimated centerpoint tracking+ terrain in image #2 (looking EAST)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Yesterday will be studied for a completely different reason that originally presumed.
unborn timber
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unborn timber
unborn timber
very old warehouse, likely just shoved off it's foundation (note the pallet's still remaining on slab.)
32.818544, -98.057627
Likely not as strong as originally presumed, (still notable damage, but reeling in expectations.)
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/scr0sx/status/2049266287646241137
Looks like this (thankfully) missed all populated areas, pure tree eater of a tornado,
(likely strayed south of this area, and radar wasn't getting a good scan)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
As a heads up for today's event, Birmingham's radar (Central AL) is down, and is not expected to be repaired for a few days.
unborn timber
Only cell of real note so far, approaching Tylertown, MS
unborn timber
Strong tornado SE of Sibley, MS
X
X
upgraded to a Tornado Emergency,
Another strong one (already went PDS) S of Hattiesburg
Went through some very populated areas
X
unborn timber
Notable quake for Chile,
Given the area it hit, probably lighter damage to some surrounding towns- estimated epicenter is pretty rural.
sullen shale
I'm not a weather expert, but this sounds... bad
https://www.bbc.com/weather/articles/cvgzn11v421o
cloud igloo
I'm not a weather expert, but this sounds... bad
https://www.bbc.com/weather/art...
I’ve talked with my parents about climate change, they’re right wing. But we all agree the climate is changing
jagged niche
That’s comforting to hear
unborn timber
unborn timber
Today's Outlook+ breakdown by hazard type
IMO- Today will probably be known more for wind+hail damage in NW Iowa/ SW Minnesota.
tomorrow has my eyes, tornado-wise (SPC has the "main area of note" being Central/NE Kansas into SE Nebraska, but if I was chasing, i'd be in southern Iowa.)
(Current D2 tornado outlook, my "area i am curious about" is just NE of the 15% CIG2, nesteled solidly in the 10%CIG1 area.)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Not confirmed to be active as of now, but an area of rotation is approaching the Omaha, NE area.
unborn timber
I am reviewing (and making a mini case study) over 3 seperate chasers who all came very close to being impacted by the Saint Libory, NE tornado.
they will be marked as incident "26518-A", "26518-B", and "26518-C" with an additional "U-26518-D" (Unknown person.)
Initial review suggests that
-
[26518-A] drove across the tornado's path at a very high rate of speed in an attempt to escape, driving E,
-
[26518-B] drove into the path of the tornado, had to reverse out (cutting off A in the process,) before successfully bailing north
-
[26518-C] is mainly just here for his footage, I personally believe he cut it close but he was able to turn and bail north before B turned.
-
[U-26518-D] drove north into the path, quickly did a U turn and bailed back south. Still looking to identify if this was a local or a storm chaser.
unborn timber
Car A did some unbelievably reckless moves, they escaped being hit by the tornado by ~3 seconds.
(Originally was going W, one chaser IDs that the tornado is "going right at them", they proceed to stay and film for ~40 seconds, then pull a U turn and go E, they get to "intersection of note" at ~3:00, tornado damage occurs to structures at intersection at ~3:05.
cloud igloo
Oh snap
covert finch
You could refer to the county (Warren, right?) and that should get the message through.
silent nymph
leaden mountain
A meteor was recorded passing over the slopes of Mayon Volcano on Monday evening, May 25, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).
Phivolcs said its Ligñon Hill IP Camera in Legazpi City captured the meteor at around 10:33 p.m., but noted that it disintegrated while still in the atmosphere and did not reach the slopes of Mayon.
unborn timber
Notable tornado, extreme southern Alabama.
Interesting note- if my math is right- the only clear photo of this tornado is as it was over this exact area.
And interesting lil calculation work (blue line: radar-derived path estimation, this is expected to be off by ~0.1 to 0.2 of a mile in either direction due to not having surface level data, but it is close enough for me to roughly work out where the tornado was at the time of the photo, and roughly when the photo had to be taken, around 00:46:18 Z)
jagged niche
CC to @unborn timber