Possibly had a quake near Tokyo aswell,
#Weather and geological phenomena
unborn timber
(I dont have access to too many stations there so number is likely wonky)
JQuake put it at an estimated M4.3
unborn timber
For fellow weather nerds- would look into WeatherFront,
https://x.com/WxFront
X
Waiting for them to make an android version tbh
It seems like the best combo of RadarScope (which is my current go to) w/ the amazing road networks that RadarOmega has,
limber mesa
yeah it would be nice if it were on Android since my only iOS device I have is my wifi-only iPad :P
limber mesa
Waiting for them to make an android version tbh
looks like they're working on Android and desktop versions
unborn timber
tl;dr- New video archived from a survivor during the earthquake shows that waters started receding in this area (violently!) way earlier than neighboring bays, (5-10 minutes prior)
Still being researched, but they're leaning towards geographical influences obviously
unborn timber
us storm nerds like to call this type* of event a "low floor but a high ceiling", where the overall risk could easily be dirt poor, or you could practically shoot for the moon
(*How was that typo'd for 2 days :C)
limber mesa
"if it goes off it will go the fuck off"
jagged niche
“Get some whiskey ready. Either in disappointment or in sheer ‘I need to mentally manage this shit’”
limber mesa
a real catch-22% situation
unborn timber
Update on this- models are lookin a little more NE now
limber mesa
the blob has changed
tacit geode
unborn timber
Update on this- models are lookin *a little* more NE now
Every... time... i post an update the NWS updates it too.
limber mesa
what's the hashed area again?
unborn timber
what's the hashed area again?
10%+ of significant conditions w/in 25 miles of a point.
limber mesa
ah ok, thanks
unborn timber
Juneau+ Mayville, WI both hit by decently strong tornadoes (powerlines downed, roofs ripped from buildings.)
Radar scans of both areas being hit.
https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/jordan.hall.html
Per a stormchaser on scene.
unborn timber
"Several strong[EF2+] tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado[EF4+] will be possible"
"Several strong tornadoes appear likely, and a high-end long-track tornado will be possible from far southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, southward into western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee."
unborn timber
BTW- yes there are currently tornado warnings for AR/TN (And probably soon for KY.)- this is the prelude to the main event, if you happen to be in these areas- it's the 2nd wave everyone's concerned about. I'd suggest you stay tuned to your local NWS office. (You always should have some level of alerts active at all times, but it doesn't hurt to follow your local area on Twitter- they'll give you direct alerts for your area.)
unborn timber
X
https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1923493333911076990
38°40'10.21"N, 90°14'9.64"W looking S/SW.
Baltimore, MD under a tornado warning, merger event
^Likely much weaker than typically expected- looks like it shifted off it's foundation and failed.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
"Risk to life" assessment thanks to this source
https://www.facebook.com/20002104/videos/pcb.10105644827707021/1204887194551924
explaination of my scale here- these are not correlating to any sort of EF rating, this is a pure "risk to life" sort of assessment using footage.
Green- little to no risk to an occupant inside the structure
Yellow- Moderate risk of injury (Low risk of fatality)
Red- Moderate risk of significant injury (Moderate risk of fatality)
!!!!- High risk of significant injury (High risk of fatality)
Red marker at the south, then the !!! point just to the NW
Luckily- looking at Google Maps- both of these specific buildings seemed to be abandoned (but neighbors directly next to them were not)- But, my experimental scale works on the idea of "if someone was inside"
Strong/violent tornado near Marion, IL.
Very likely hit USP Marion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Penitentiary,_Marion
Tornado emergency issued
Bloomington, IN! Another strong one!
X
Different- North of Allegre, KY, Strong.
very notable, if not historic event unfolding.
S of Nashville, IL
There's a debris spike on that one- that's real strong.
It's gonna try to track straight through Columbus. Next 10 minutes or so
SW of Evansville IN, near Morganfield, KY, another notable circulation trying real hard to produce another strong/violent tornado. Insane inflow on this supercell- will be undergoing a merger that will (very likely) be constructive.
Morganfield KY, insane risk, that cell's gonna go.
Very rapid rotation seen via Brett Adair
It looks about guaranteed to be a strong one, imo,
Different tornado- but these storms are dropping tornadoes left and right, the moment they get a chance it's going
Strong tornado, SW side of Morganfield, KY,
unborn timber
Strong tornado approaching Somerset, KY.
Once you get over towards London KY- you hit the Appalachians, Storm could get real funky.
X
PDS issued for London KY, a spot I've jokingly called the "Hotspot of the Appalachians" before.
This hit real close to home- Significant damage reported.
God,
If this goes slightly more north it will be an utter catastrophe for London KY in around 15-30 minutes.
jagged niche
night time
tornado
That’s a whole lotta nope on that train, goddamn
unborn timber
Southern side of Somerset hit, I know this area,
X
E of Somerset, 2nd tornado.
Mass casuality situation declared, Somerset, KY.
X
Most intense winds estimated at under 300 ft wide from this announcement.
unborn timber
Most intense winds estimated at under 300 ft wide from this announcement.
rough estimation using the buildings listed.
X
event should wind down now, going to sleep,
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
btw- local lore, the exact intersection that tornado hit directly (Light 22) is considered a "cursed" light. There's a facebook group made that documents every single car crash or oddity (such as a "dropped plant pot from the back of a pickup truck") at that specific light
There were cameras set up at that light to document this stuff, if it survived- expect footage of it soon.
One of the most documented traffic signals in all of KY.
If footage survived- it'll be here. https://www.facebook.com/ModernSystemsInc
Now i've seen it all- French storm chasers in rural western KY.
unborn timber
Most interesting part of the video i've seen so far
0:45 in- That cyan segment- it's missing
mental lotus
jeez what a mess. those poor people
unborn timber
(Don't worry- getting closer segments, trying to not have automod snipe me for too many attachments.)
Blue- No Damage/Other
Green- little to no risk to an occupant inside the structure
Yellow- Moderate risk of injury (Low risk of fatality)
Red- Moderate risk of significant injury (Moderate risk of fatality)
!!!!- High risk of significant injury (High risk of fatality)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Canadian process on assessing forest damage (KPH NOT MPH)
I know this isn't exactly 1-1, but literally the US side does not have a good system for accounting for swaths of forest damage like seen above
unborn timber
Area highlighted in red (both graphs) is where the most catastrophic damage occured-
Geography-assisted winds, almost certainly.
Tornados weaken going uphill, and strengthen going downhill (vast oversimplification)
tornado descended around 89 feet (vertically) within seconds. (spanning a distance of 2k feet long)
scale of the UAVs starting to be used in the OTUS project.
https://x.com/project_otus/status/1789672059385074120/video/1
unborn timber
Very hectic period ahead on the weather side of things, I would love it if all USA news settled down for a moment.
(I say, pleading to the void. :/)
unborn timber
As a storm chaser i can humbly say
-don't do this, he got extremely close and lost a window to it (and almost an arm or an eye imo)
unborn timber
I wouldn't get that close in anything less than this
(and I still wouldn't feel safe- mainly my eardrums. Both pressure change+ a very excited Reed.)
unborn timber
https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1924086873900683404
(I'll give the exact split when the site updates, currently on the old forecast.)
X
unborn timber
Sorry about the delay! got tied up in somethin.
glossy pewter
Holy, in-between Somerset and London KY.
The tornado scar is registering even in geostationary imagery(IIRC the highest resolution visible channel is 500 m at nadir). https://weather.us/satellite/laurel/satellite-color-superhd-5min/20250517-1510z.html . There is a streak that wasn't there on the 11th.
Anyways, good luck to folks in the threat zone today.
unborn timber
Sorry about the silence, was catching up on some sleep- there's been a few strong tornadoes from what I can see in some chat backlogs, unsure if any populated areas were hit. (Edit- doesn't seem like it as of now, event is still ongoing)
But one of the tornadoes from today!
In other news i'm catching up on- Marion IL was given a preliminary rating of EF4 (190 MPH)
Grinnell, KS (population of around 300 people) at risk, decently strong rotation,
PDS issued for Grinnell, KS
Waiting on reports to see if the area was hit- couplet died out (along w/ CC starting to fade),
Tornado was active for around 5-10 minutes
Down near Dallas, TX is also getting concerning
unborn timber
Southern KS, (Switching between Radarscope on my phone and GR2 on my PC for faster checks of 2 different areas instead of having to redownload the data every time.)
All current warnings- TOR- Tornado indicated, TORR- Tornado Reported
SVR- Severe TSTM warning, SVRC- Severe Considerable, SVRD-Severe Destructive
FFW- Flash Flooding Warning, FFWC- Considerable tag.
All times are in Zulu, which is the meteorological standard (especially for backend stuff like this)
cloud scroll
/takes off mod hat
I really enjoy watching you cook @unborn timber - appareciate you sharing one of your passions and knowledge with the community
unborn timber
Daw, thanks, it's just one of those lil things that personally- i feel like more people should get into learning (atleast for their own gain)
Amazed this wasn't a fatality
limber mesa
that's wild
jagged niche
@unborn timber DFW Texas area getting some action, figured to let you know
unborn timber
jagged niche
What server if I may ask?
unborn timber
What server if I may ask?
several (Mix of personal+ OUTBRK+ TRX+Twitter.)
I am one of the rare examples of someone using geolocation skills in this field, there's very few of us!
X
jagged niche
several (Mix of personal+ OUTBRK+ TRX+Twitter.)
I am one of the *rare* examples...
:D, thank you
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/lverbeckwx/status/1924277425271149043
A man after my heart- perfect coords of where he's standing
Gordon, TX reports damage (waiting on images I can geolocate)
https://x.com/Naten86/status/1924281215378481231/photo/3
X
unborn timber
Heading up towards Greensburg*
Hopefully will pass south of Greensburg at 0236Z (like 20 minutes from now.)
Tornado active on this storm.
waow
X
Tornado is going much more north than the parent cell. Greensburg under a decent level of risk.
Tornado risk in the DFW area
X
Just got warned
That'll try.
...christ.
likely a violent tornado S of Greensburg, KS
Tornado Emergency issued, Greensburg KS.
X
Insane radar scan.
X
maxed out VTP (Violent tornado parameter) 14.0
First responders in Greensburg evacuating town. (themselves)
Likely just missed Greensburg to the SE (around 2 miles!) Still a violent tornado tracking through KS, watching for any other towns in the path
closest point (PTDS shown, which is compiling reflectivity+ velocity+ corelation coefficient into a "how likely is this showing debris signature?")
white is 100% confidence (overlap of all 3.)
Storm chasers fleeing-"largest tornado i've ever seen"
radar scans (not of surface level) recorded 210 MPH winds.
(Specifically calculated through gtg, long process i'm not gonna get into.)
unborn timber
Storm system is still concerning.
History doesn't repeat exactly-but it likes to rhyme- 5/4/2007, Greenburg was hit by a tornado that was rated EF5, just over 18 years ago.
Notable things- Denver CO spinup, OK/KS areas (Arnett, OK was also hit that day.)
unborn timber
X
X
.... Bigger than the size of Plevna itself.
X
"about 2 miles SW of Plevna"
X
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Acedog112/status/1924339807670378797
(The image originally posted wasn't even for the right town 😮💨 )
oh boy we're doin it again tomorrow,
Risk spread, going to sleep so I can follow this event (which seems to be gearing up as another tornado outbreak)
unborn timber
uncut glen
@unborn timber If you're watching the storms today I can livestream you video if you want gonna be smack dab in the highest risk zone
unborn timber
unborn timber
<@197185945521356800> If you're watching the storms today I can livestream you v...
Honestly I was full eep for a good chunk of today (it finally caught up with me.)
limber mesa
the worst of it up north looks to be scooting just past me
unborn timber
TIL that on September 24th, 2001- Washington DC had one of it's most active tornadic events in modern history, including an F1 tornado that barely missed the White House itself
unborn timber
Good eyewitness accounts, skip to around 1:00 to get past the weird "in this video" intro
limber mesa
I should note, the Dominator 3 weighs six and a half tons
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Blue- No Damage/Other
Green- little to no risk to an occupant inside the structu...
Updated this to tidy things up+ add known fatalities.
Important note- the white arrows are estimating where bodies were recovered. Some of these are near structures they didn't live in (ex- SW most pin- actually came from the first house impacted/ W most.)
The only fatality that conflicted with my TTL scale is the furthest east one- debris induced fatality, killed w/in her own home., drone footage showed little to no signs of debris intrusion, so I assigned a fairly low value at the time.
..not including injuries until more concrete information is known (hopefully from the NWS assessment), but it should align w/ the above scale.
May also color code it somewhat to indicate degree of injury, (concussion would probably be on a different level than severed arm, both of those injury types have been documented on this one.), but that is an issue for future me.
I'm experimenting with this "personal scale" because I feel like it expresses how lethal tornadoes can be, hopefully better than a standard MPH estimation.
For example- a mobile home will be rolled and destroyed at EF1 or EF2 intensity- but would have a high chance of being fatal (and 3 deaths here are related to that.), but on the EF scale- is given one of the lowest indicators in terms of intensity.
Known fatalities relating to a damage indicator <EF3 (65-135 MPH)- 6 fatalities
Known fatalities relating to a damage indication ≥ EF3 (136-170 MPH in this case)- 2 fatalities [0 from the one EF4 damage indicator.]
Of course- there's still a lot to work to be done, as this tornado killed 19 total people, and I only have 8 mapped here.
unborn timber
🤬
This is where the most extreme damage occurred- it is still not on the damage assessment toolkit
Unusually delayed.
I kindof wonder if they're thinking of downgrading it (170 MPH EF4-> 165 MPH EF3), as this is the segment w/ the (from what i gathered) one structure that got the EF4 rating.
Construction typically isn't the best in this part of KY.
For context of how weird this is- Currently this tornado is rated EF4- w/ no damage indicators on it currently of EF4 intensity- despite NWS JacksonKY saying the EF4 rating was the final rating, on the 20th.
(This could also just be- "they forgot to check the QC checkbox for each of these items", that is also a possibility that happens sometimes, as it'll show up for them but not on the toolkit.)
^One of the most (scientifically speaking) bizarre injury types i've heard of in the modern era- two victims, each lost a portion of their arm, Male lost his left, female lost her right.
(I would wager this was debris induced, and something managed to pass between them at a high rate of speed- sheet metal? Would likely be too thin unless their arms were overlapped.)
unborn timber
jesus christ guys
Side bar for the weather community at the current moment- major chaser convergence, surprised there hasn't been a wreck yet.
unborn timber
Attached is Tornado Archive's records- filtered for all tornadoes w/ atleast 1 fatality.
The 2025 EF4 is not on here yet, and wont be until 2026 per this archive's procedures.
..I should also note- only the 4 tornadoes that entered Laurel County (around London KY) were included- you may see two F4 [pre 2007] tornadoes off to the left, yes one of them killed 36 people- but was over 50 miles away, I didn't include it.)
unborn timber
Floyd, NM tornado- likely decently strong.
.... There's actually a bit of a hotspot here, typically called "Clovis Magic", atleast one photogenic tornado in this area per year. (On average.)
X
limber mesa
that's a beaut
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
this fuckin SUCKED to find weirdly enough
37°03'39.16" N 84°19'19.33" W
Still needs to be fiddled with, not an exact 1-1 yet
unborn timber
Also got the Sunshine Hills area because why not since i'm torturing myself tonight.
oh my god imma have to fiddle with it again because it breaks in the web version
unborn timber
Some of the most extreme vegetation damage in recent history-
08APR25 to 16MAY25 (38 day difference.)
I would not doubt that if this area was built to a higher standard- or if this strayed north by about 2 miles- this could have easily shown evidence rivaling Joplin (2011) [And the death toll easily could have rivalled it too.]
unborn timber
unborn timber
im gonna scream dude,
Left- published by GEO/ MIS last night, they want to charge you 5k+ a month
Right- my free project I started working on day of the tornado, again- $0.
I cannot have AI/ corps take my super obscure niche, like really?
Also they missed a trailer where a fatality was, I very much doubt they had people on the ground for this survey.
jagged niche
Why spend 5k a month when a Discord account and checking on this thread like once a day is free
unborn timber
$5k a month to get the data 2 weeks later-
I geolocated drone footage NIGHT OF the darn thing, Didn't even add satellite images until last night.
limber mesa
I believe a "get on my level" is appropriate here
jagged niche
Again, why spend 5k and waiting weeks when you can just be on this thread FOR F R E E and get stuff within 48 hours of things happening, oftentimes getting data night of
jagged niche
I believe a "get on my level" is appropriate here
Lmao true
unborn timber
You guys think if I got a job with them and still published stuff here they'd get mad at me? Because 1- astonished this company exists,
2- why is it super expensive (i've contacted them before to inquire about price for satellite imagery, got told over the phone that "oh, yeah this is more for like big business or federal stuff, sounds cool though")
had a nice chat with that rep though about storm chasing. But this is one of those companies where you have to sign up for a call to be told how much it'll cost you. (and i was a naïve 17-18 year old holding a breadcrumb of hope it wouldn't be that bad)
jagged niche
You can easily go “yall slow as hell, and I’m doing this FOR FREE”
“And I’m getting stuff night of lol”
jagged niche
You guys think if I got a job with them and still published stuff here they'd ge...
And here you are, doing this for the love of the damn game
For free
unborn timber
Blue- No Damage/Other
Green- little to no risk to an occupant inside the structu...
I looked closer and they're using blue for no damage i cannot believe my abysmal luck. (replied to my original post here with my Threat To Life scale, 17/MAY/2025.
It is quite literally my exact colorcoded scale. (blue->green->yellow->red) [I add on -->!!!, a modifier to red.]
unborn timber
NWS Jackson KY updated the tornado path, finally adding EF4 DI's... the moment I publish a new version of the project and planning to put it down for a while.
167 MPH EF4, 170 MPH EF4
Some of the most extreme tree damage I've seen in my lifetime, partially rivaling damage last seen in the 90's, before I was born. (for this level of tree coverage being obliterated.)
limber mesa
unborn timber
Tornado in Georgia. Likely a very brief spin up, but it seems to have been surprisingly strong.
limber mesa
I have a forecast of partly funnel today
isolated funnels with a chance of a touchdown at about 50mph max
unborn timber
unborn timber
Looks like one house completely failed under what would be typically expected- (roof+ most upper walls intact, just.. crumpled.)
unborn timber
Another KY tornado (since lifted.)
unborn timber
Another KY tornado (since lifted.)
Oh jeez, looks like it was surprisingly strong.- 1 fatal.
leaden mountain
That is a very good photo. The clean foundation with the debris behind it, the flipped car and then the trucks in the background.
Also the cut-off trees and the empty space above them.
unborn timber
Certainly looks like debris-induced debarking on some of those too,
unborn timber
also guess what I got a hold of....
pink area is the satellite image initially included in the project. (still gotta fiddle with it a little as you can prolly tell.)
unborn timber
I am currently working on V4 of the Somerset-London damage path, and the start of it is a trainwreck.
Multiple damage indicators are either in the wrong spot entirely, (affecting the mapping)
or- are not showing what they are describing (ex- "Debarked trees"- image of a house, or the most baffling "Mobile Home SingleWide rolled"-
IMAGE OF AN RV CAMPER (This would be Other, closer to VEHICLE damage, not a built home!)
This segment needs to be redone, it might not even be the same tornado due to this misalignment.
unborn timber
I am currently working on V4 of the Somerset-London damage path, and the start o...
This segment is of question- if continuous damage is found- then yes, same tornado, if not... there was another EF3 that day.
unborn timber
One of the stupidest things i've ever done, but it's new satellite imagery.
This will be V4
First image is showing how much I have left 🙃
discussion i'm crossposting here because why not.
unborn timber
Oh jeez, looks like it was surprisingly strong.- 1 fatal.
given an EF2 prelim
unborn timber
Chance of severe weather (including a chance of tornadoes) in Europe on the 3rd and 4th per estofex, (https://www.estofex.org/)
My primary focus would be Germany on the 4th,
..or.. today i guess- missed this report.
X
unborn timber
X
Went over Arrowhead Stadium
Quick QLCS spinup in a majorly populated area (a lot of reports of semis being rolled over per KMBC 9 live broadcast.)
unborn timber
huh.
unborn timber
Might have a surprisingly strong tornado near Edgington, IL
(suprisingly strong from this storm mode- QLCS spam hours, a lot of spinups in IL.)
X
Warning is a bit large because there's a 2nd circulation to the SE.
Checkmark is for the known active one, 2nd one is just starting up- may or may not be of concern going forwards.
....Hopefully they both absolutely murder eachother as they get closer. and don't produce tornadoes over the southern part of Davenport.
limber mesa
sounds like a likely outcome
unborn timber
Today has certainly oververified, (again- QLCS spinup spam.)
...But there was one sorta discrete cell that produced a tornado in/near Moore, OK today,
limber mesa
oh
I used to live there
I got out before The Big One some time ago though
the one in 1999
and I do mean that, it was the fastest F5 ever at the time
321mph over ground
38 mile track, 85 minute durations
just a pile of superlatives
unborn timber
Lotta concerning areas popping up along the front that will probably be watched very closely by the NWS.
Velocity is non existent at 8:16, at 8:19 it's got the look per reflectivity.
... Lotta bark, no bite on this specific segment so far. Still showing absolutely nothing on velocity.
unborn timber
... Lotta bark, no bite on this specific segment so far. Still showing absolutel...
But this type of storm system could quickly spin up a tornado within literal minutes if nudged right, so I really don't trust it.
devout stump
I haven't seen anything about the canadian wildfires here yet, so: https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html
limber mesa
yeah some smoke from up north moved through the Plains yesterday
unborn timber
Lubbock, TX under a tornado warning- This supercell produced a likely strong/violent tornado in the middle of nowhere about an hour earlier, watching closely.
About an hour ago
X
So much hail it's showing up on CC as a pure blob, wouldn't wanna be outside in or around Lubbock as this nears.
Active
Storm chasers seeing dust being kicked up
... Might get a big one here, NW of Lubbock.
The cell's gone near stationary.
... Yeah this'll try to get strong quick.
"it's moving due south" -Brad Arnold (storm chaser)
"It's cut due EAST! now, Due EAST!" - Same chaser, now moving to escape.
Two different tornadoes reported under this mesocyclone.
X
... I'd argue the mesocyclone has practically lowered itself to the ground.. all of these tornadoes are acting more like satellites.
X
Likely strong straight line winds going through Lubbock no matter what - one station to the NW recorded a 109MPH gust
Tornado reported in Western Lubbock, TX.
Edit- Waiting on damage reports, certainly a flash flooding issue ongoing.
unborn timber
Certainly straight line winds damage for the area, it'll be "fun" for the NWS to untangle if there was a tornado or not within city limits
leaden mountain
This was technically a tornado (and of course technically a tornado is the best kind of tornado 😉)
https://www.rtvnoord.nl/natuur/1309445/windhoos-gezien-boven-ter-apel-grote-kans-op-meer-onstuimig-weer
The embed is annoying. There's a video inside.
limber mesa
Definitely a funnel cloud though, acedog can put it more technically than me
unborn timber
prolly a tornado 👍 (video isn't loading on my end 
)
east of Lubbock, TX- likely a strong 'un tryin to form,
unborn timber
..... No, you're not going crazy - another tornado warning W of Lubbock, TX.
.... With damaging straight line wind+ hail.
unborn timber
limber mesa
he was about to jump out of the truck lmao
limber mesa
whoof
unborn timber
FOUR HOURS AGO
but, possible tornado in Poland earlier today, waiting on damage reports
Decent little couplet for being on the edge of the radar's area, would be scanning extremely high up however.
unborn timber
unborn timber
Important note that if a tornado hits you on a storm that's already going 90+ mph, you don't need that much rotational speed to get significant damage, as it will be additive. (Depending on what part of the tornado hits you, same principle as hurricane quadrants, just vastly scaled down.)
(this is also vastly oversimplified of course- but it gets the point across.)
jagged niche
Not as intense as a tornado, but still
For non-Americans, potential of over 128km per hour winds
limber mesa
I am amused that "DVD size" is the actual agreed upon nomenclature for that hail size
covert finch
Was there another object for that size before CDs were popular or have things gotten so bad that a once maximum "grapefruit" was not large enough?
limber mesa
you know, I don't know
unborn timber
unborn timber
Was there another object for that size before CDs were popular or have things go...
I'd wager they just said "2 inch hail", "4 inch hail", etc, and moved to the analogy to get the point across about how big the hail is to the general public quicker
because I personally have no recollection of even hearing something similar while researching old events
limber mesa
that is some serious wind
covert finch
Found an older version of the NWSI Directive that includes older nomenclature and an explanation for why they standardized the sizes:
unborn timber
jagged niche
This’ll be an eventful night for me, damn
unborn timber
X
jagged niche
This’ll be an eventful night for me, damn
Starting to hear thunder over here
jagged niche
FUCK
Power just cut for a moment
@unborn timber think you might like footage of someone personally experiencing the weather
footage warn: flashing lights and noise
unborn timber
..Strong tornado in NY (State, not city.)
There's like atleast one strong rogue tornado in NY per year ☕
Crossposting a discussion I had in a different server.
unborn timber
^Prelim rating of high end EF1 (110 MPH)
limber mesa
vast dune
It just hailed here in Madrid, here a pic I just took for reference
leaden mountain
It just hailed here in Madrid, here a pic I just took for reference
That's bigger than a golf ball, for those wondering...
vast dune
We've been above 30 since the end of May (too early to be this hot, it feels like July), so to quench the heat we've been sent free ice for our cocktails
unborn timber
We've been above 30 since the end of May (too early to be this hot, it feels lik...
There's an amazing story about Ted Fujita when he worked at NWS Norman, Oklahoma, where during a notable tornado outbreak in like the 60/70's he and a few other meteorologists stood on the roof and just sorta watched, mix of helplessness and fascination, as this was a period in history where tornadoes were not as well understood.
One of the meteorologists noted that Ted picked up some hailstones at some point and was using it as ice cubes as he drank pure vodka
vast dune
I think I heard that story 
unborn timber
Fujita's got a very interesting life, he got into studying wind-induced damage from surveying the aftermath of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, and I would argue that if we didn't grab him as a scientist our understanding of tornadoes would probably be closer to late 70's early 80's understanding.
An unbelievably pivotal person in the field that I unfortunately will never get to meet.
unborn timber
He also set up "Project NIMROD" which is like the best name ever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_NIMROD
limber mesa
cowboy meteorology
unborn timber
https://x.com/adamorgler/status/1933601780425748848
"Over 5,200 severe thunderstorm + tornado warnings issued by the NWS in May…
Only 9 of those were in Iowa."
wooden wren
'something something eye of the storm'
unborn timber
Tornado watch for MN, WI issued, probabilities included.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
this was likely an extremely violent tornado that vibed in the middle of nowhere, Nebraska for about an hour yesterday. (Nearly stationary at times!)
X
(There are estimates that for this tornado to have condensed like this given the elevated cloud base, a pressure drop of around 150mb would be expected.)
limber mesa
this was likely an *extremely violent* tornado that vibed in the middle of nowhe...
in the middle of the middle of nowhere xP
around here
unborn timber
Specific area per the damage assessment toolkil, moved south.
note that this was rated high end EF2 (134 MPH), with multiple pointes effectively maxed out.
"Multiple small trees stripped of bark. Power poles missing."
limber mesa
yeah, weird that it just kinda parked there
also holy fuck lmao, my pin drop was just a guess
the one time I'm not playing Geoguessr
unborn timber
Hey, always a fun way to get geolocation exercises- find tornado video, locate where it is- usually you'll have an area/ town name to start with. (and you should be able to cross check w/ https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/stormdamage/damageviewer/ or https://tornadoarchive.com/ if you know the date.)
especially get into this if you're into trees, different types of trees get damaged at different rates so it can genuinely be helpful sometimes. https://x.com/NotChilledOut/status/1935091438892581071
unborn timber
unborn timber
Strong tornado in IL, W of Springfield.
Tornado+ zoomed out showing the storm in relation to the state.
unborn timber
LP supercell also producing one,
Circulating online, video credit to a Derek S.
Jacksonville, IL tornado. Very rapid movement.
A lot of little spinups aswell w/ this system
Likely another strong one W of Petersburg, IL.
https://www.facebook.com/217problems/videos/654333517637697 A local radio station had this sent to them,
"Champions Field in Jacksonville has been leveled" [sic]
Went straight through this garage, both sides still standing- middle segment collapsed. (Drillbits are scary.)
Given the location of this- it's part of the "Future Champions Sports Complex", looks to be related to the HS.
unborn timber
Closest footage that I know of- around the corner- facing the garage that got decked (albeit obscured by trees.)- likely went back inside just before it did significant damage to the structure
unborn timber
The hypothesis holds true still- next day was the Nebraska stationary tornado that easily was in the violent catagory
jagged niche
Let’s see if anything happens 3 or so days from now
unborn timber
New closest video dropped for the Jacksonville IL tornado- Filmer identified the tornado- and personally was a bit too bold afterwards
limber mesa
New closest video dropped for the Jacksonville IL tornado- Filmer identified the...
bro you are in the debris field pls stay in
unborn timber
fun fact- based on the plaps of skin on pavement- it really sounds like he's barefoot too, which is.. yeah
limber mesa
I'm from put-out-lawnchair country and that was pretty dumb
unborn timber
You probably aren't going to see a radar presentation of something like this again for a few years
PDS issued.
That's a real strong one going into/ near Sheldon, ND.
unborn timber
Strugglin to ID what image #1 came from here, #3 looks to be part of an irrigation pivot..?
Certainly a strong if not violent tornado w/in this outbreak (most of them were QLCS spinups that lasted <10 minutes.)
covert finch
The pin doesn't seem to match the terrain in the photos, and the radio tower visible in #3 doesn't appear on the horizon anywhere near there. Is there a reliable map of the tornado's path?
unborn timber
The pin doesn't seem to match the terrain in the photos, and the radio tower vis...
Wont be for a few days
Some people have made radar estimates using the associated velocity couplet as a rough approximation of where it was- but due to how far it was from the radar source it wont be the best.'
X
(I personally don't like Nick but he is a pivitol figure in opensourcing this sort of stuff, no idea where he got the 106.5kt VROT reading from, radar wasn't exactly scanning the best at that time so it probably shouldn't even be used as a rotational approximation.)
covert finch
Strugglin to ID what image #1 came from here, #3 looks to be part of an irrigati...
Not seeing irrigation systems near Jamestown, but looking at the original photos from Twitter the first photo appears to be the rear axle of an older wagon. Specifically the older-style suspension. It's very likely part of the pile of things from the third photo which looks like an undercarriage of something that's seen better days. Note that the tire visible in #3 looks similar to the outer tire on the right of #1.
unborn timber
Would be the first ND EF3+ tornado in over a decade if my memory ain't failing me
(totally didn't forget the state for a moment there.)
limber mesa
https://fxtwitter.com/Clint_wx/status/1936474230818058310
that's the hindquarters of a very old truck in #1
and I think you called it right for #3
unborn timber
limber mesa
holy fuck
unborn timber
The house this kid+ his father- actor Tray Chaney- was completely destroyed, major construction issue allowed for it to practically be shoved off the foundation
limber mesa
jesus
unborn timber
unborn timber
(Ignore my ping the tornado actually wasn't added, mixed up the tornado you were asking for a map of and a different tornado that tracked similarly FAR to the NW, near Jamestown ND instead of Sheldon, ND.)
limber mesa
monsoon season here in the plains
unborn timber
There's a decent chance of a tornado today in SE Minnesota.
If you're in NE Georgia/ NW South Carolina- you really gotta worry about wind in general.
Someone's gonna get smoked by an 80 MPH downburst today in the midst of people who get 60-ish (heatwave conditions are sorta concerning for straight-line wind events.)
limber mesa
mmyep
one weird thing is we're getting a proliferation of funnels out here
not strong enough to be classified but can spin up to 50mph+ if they touch down
limber mesa
ope
unborn timber
Just got tornado warned, This one spun up quick (At 6, nothing to worry about, at 6:15- that is a fully developed hook echo and an active tornado what)
It's a STRONG one too!
I would be amazed if there's no damage in or directly around Yucatan.
covert finch
I'd wonder if the geography of the area played a part in the speed. It's the Drifltess Area with reasonably sized hills and wide valleys.
unborn timber
(probably to an extent, storm merger behind it certainly helped too, pushed the hook echo into it's inflow, increasing rotation.)
Tornado has since stopped showing any signs it's still actively doing damage, may have been a fairly brief-but still fairly strong- tornado
Another area i'm watching near Nodine (NW of LaCrosse.)
And it's producing another tornado 🫠
The main "scary cell" went observed again, S of Hokah, MN.
Is one active? Probably? It's hard to tell right now due to how close it is to the radar.
And Florida still finds a way to completely baffle me
how did this do this it's UPSIDE DOWN
I have no clue how in the world this one even happened- likely insanely weak, but what
unborn timber
https://www.facebook.com/lillie.briahna/videos/1457952238699412
Hartland, MN
still standing true to the old saying that no matter how much you chase
no matter how long you stick your nose in forecast models
some random $^@!& dude in a pickup truck will have the view of the year.
limber mesa
damn that is prime real estate right there
jagged niche
The only row of seats closer then that needs that tornado car to be inside
unborn timber
bafflement continues.
picked up a mobile home, sweeped some debris under it- lowered the darn house back onto it
unborn timber
i spent so much time looking for that darn "V shape", didn't even account for a potential carport.
I am ungodly upset at how long this took me to find.
According to witness statements+ a gofundme, the homeowner survived, was "beat up pretty bad"
(Source of image+ information)
https://www.gofundme.com/f/rebuild-moms-life-after-tornado-disaster
unborn timber
I am down and out for the foreseeable future, house got hit directly by lightning.
So much shit got fried (or is suspected to be fried.)
My computer - probably my driver corrupted in some way
Router- also down and out, not connecting despite being hardwired
Stepfather's room (seemingly took the brunt)- 4 monitors, a TV, and his graphic's card all fucked
My mom's setup - one USB connection (which is needed for a key card) is not working.
jagged niche
My computer - probably my driver corrupted in some way
Router- also down and ou...
Speedy recovery m8
unborn timber
In the long term everything should be aight, just real damn annoying
Super loud bang+ sparks
Sparks was when I knew something got utterly fucked.
slow jasper
My computer - probably my driver corrupted in some way
Router- also down and ou...
Geeez, that's awful. I hope your luck turns, fellow worker
unborn timber
WE ARE BACK BABY
unborn timber
My computer - probably my driver corrupted in some way
Router- also down and ou...
Update on this- the adapter fried itself, cord+ monitor was safe! (Currently in a jank PC->adapter->adapter-> monitor workaround right now but it is working)
Router was... not recoverable, got a new one in now 
Stepfather's gear- everything is seemingly fine except that graphics card, just can't support all of the monitors w/ integrated graphics
unborn timber
X
covert finch
Just south of Minneapolis
Can confirm, Minneapolis had some wild weather. Still waiting on wind/tornado confirmations but the vibe is on alert.
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/MaxVelocityWX/status/1939134469744534000
https://fxtwitter.com/ChasingWConnor/status/1939169823813984673/video/1
Edit- Better video, switched embeds.:
https://fxtwitter.com/paigevincent09/status/1939141082710999173
Better video- this is also the first time i've ever seen something like this- but I have a hunch what happened.
it resembles a vortex breakdown, but it didn't actually die- like it wavered on the conditions required to be tornadic vs dying out
unborn timber
https://x.com/Brick_Suit/status/1939206826429686070/photo/1
also this happened
X
unborn timber
<https://fxtwitter.com/ChasingWConnor/status/1939169823813984673/video/1>
Edit-...
More into vortex breakdowns- this is harder to see because it's a scale model- but watch the bottom of what would be the condensation funnel- it "jitters" back in forth as the parent circulation starts rotating in a similar way- usually this would occur closer to the end of a tornado's life
Some researchers are calling this "Vortex Shedding" already, but I feel like it's roughly the same principal we already sorta understand, it just didn't happen fully
Notably- a lot of known instances of a failed vortex breakdown occurred on fairly strong tornadoes, (with the more significant damage being just after it gets it's "2nd chance at life")
Certainly something people much smarter than me are currently dedicating years of their academic lives to.
limber mesa
Fascinating
unborn timber
<https://fxtwitter.com/ChasingWConnor/status/1939169823813984673/video/1>
Edit-...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPg9vJ_eJE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhEcQUA4C78
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQB7nq-qtkY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFNE68xlf04 (This one catches the start of the vortex breakdown at around 2 minutes in, before the big one at 4 minutes in.) Also shows SAR efforts after a house was struck- 0 fatal, several injured
Full videos, (Only the first one will be embedded,)
That last video there is probably the best at showing how violent it was after the (TWO!) failed vortex breakdowns
unborn timber
From Image #1- not the type of damage you want to see, amazed that 4(+?) people survived here.
jagged niche
Usually it’s just “a massive ditch being dug from tornado” right?
Still interesting seeing the swirls
limber mesa
yeah usually not a soft touch
unborn timber
jagged niche
What if the bill somehow fails?
unborn timber
limber mesa
NWS generally doesn't issue tornado watches/warnings for funnels
X
chance of spinny bois
unborn timber
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Gio_wx/status/1939428862070231547
Additional photo showing damage from this tornado,
limber mesa
that's three football fields for the Americans
unborn timber
it is very funny that a good chunk of weather nerds just have most measurement conversions memorized (or have a "it'll be rouughly X degrees Fahrenheit" equivalent)
unborn timber
There's also an earthquake swarm hitting the Ryuku Islands in Japan,
Some residents have evacuated, fearing either a much stronger quake or volcanic activity, strongest quake of the bunch was a M5.5 from what I can tell
(imo i'd lean more towards the volcanic side of things rather than superquake side, shouldn't really be much of an issue hopefully.)
Best source for Japan earthquakes is JQuake as usual, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM97DTdD0Yk- English version of their livestream
..this also isn't helping this story that's currently ongoing (Just a funny little coincidence that affects international travel, fun times.)
https://time.com/7300133/japan-manga-earthquake-panic/
unborn timber
6 fatalities already reported
(Upped to 13 per KHOU 11)
X
unborn timber
leaden mountain
From the start to the highest point in this clip in about 15 minutes.
covert finch
Saw this on Bluesky and hopefully it's a reasonable analysis of the factors that went into the flooding:
https://bsky.app/profile/pppapin.bsky.social/post/3ltaqypn6rk2w
limber mesa
https://fxtwitter.com/StormHQwx/status/1941614344170623047
the road closed signs did a great job of holding the line
unborn timber
FxTwitter
👀
Would like to note that Texas itself sorta started this but, close enough... please don't use this as a wrench to bludgen CNN with somehow.
umbral thistle
Timeline for flood in Texas
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/05/nx-s1-5457759/texas-floods-timeline
tropic leaf
another fire season in California
https://calmatters.org/california-wildfire-map-tracker/
sick stump
Surreal geolocation: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pLQUXNYGMGBXjdVQ7
https://www.wboy.com/emergencies/fathers-day-flood-west-virginia-2025/apartment-collapse-in-fairmont-leaves-residents-stranded/
Also a crazy place to put a large apartment building. Basically right at the head of a wash/gulley where a creek starts, with a long asphalt slide (the road) to divert water into a depressed parking lot.
slow jasper
unborn timber
Vandal briefly knocks out a private radar for News9 (Local station.)
Also talks about the threats the NWS has recieved recently.
jagged niche
I really hope this won’t be a trend at all
covert finch
Wait... Veterans on Patrol sounds familiar.
Oh, right, these guys: #far-right-monitoring message
unborn timber
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/large-tree-is-uprooted-outside-of-a-home-near-camp-mystic-news-photo/2223038674
Per Getty Images
..That's on a house- you can see a toilet left of center, really puts into context the degree of damage associated w/ these floods in TX.
limber mesa
Ohh dat's a big stick
blazing flame
https://www.intellinews.com/southern-ocean-current-reverses-for-first-time-signalling-risk-of-climate-system-collapse-389540/
(archived https://archive.ph/d2Rnq)
blazing flame
https://apnews.com/article/trump-lutnick-weather-service-privatization-conflicts-9892de853c283468e6fb970cfd898d96
(archived https://archive.ph/7uxes)
unborn timber
jagged niche
I really hope more stuff like this won’t happen…
unborn timber
Bit of an aside but the weather side of twitter has been swarmed with people believing that HAARP, radar sites, whatever is geoengineered warfare against the American people and it is maddening.
It is a very notable uptick lately.
(Lately being over the span of the last 2-4 years. They used to stay in their bubble but now it seems bizarrely organized to go after meteorologists online.)
FxTwitter
Go to these comments and scroll, there's a SURPRISINGLY HIGH NUMBER of people believing the claim Ryan is trying to dispute.
unborn timber
also- pain lol, little bit of a wind event for the NE (Including a tornado warning that went over D.C itself,)
I have a hunch 1-2 tornadoes occurred (primarily in Delaware.), but none are officially confirmed.
unborn timber
X
long post.
Personally- the camp directors probably didn't have a way to receive warnings, which I would argue is negligent in the notably active flood plains down in TX.
Updated death toll is at 120 from this event, most of which (80%!!) came from this one county (96)
Of those 96 (currently) confirmed fatalities in Kerr County, 27 came from this one camp. (around 22% of this event's total fatalities)
covert finch
It's easy to look at "what ifs" after the disaster, but...
https://midlandusa.com/collections/weather/products/wr-120-weather-radio
Fifty bucks.
unborn timber
Active tornado NW of Davenport
Might be tracking into the northern part of the city.
An area SW of Madison, WI has my eye atm,
Isolated little cell that might get overtaken by the line- pure pattern recognition on this front- sometimes goes real tornadic if it hits it right.
(Update many hours later because i forgor to at the time- unded up being shoved up to the north and fizzled out before it even got to merge with the main QLCS.)
Closer zoom on this area- very weak rotation currently, but it is there,
unborn timber
X
Davenport IA has moved from a tornadic threat to an immediate flooding threat.
slow jasper
https://x.com/MyRadarWX/status/1943355312737517809
Would appreciate screenshots, it isn't loading for me
unborn timber
Would appreciate screenshots, it isn't loading for me
It got reposted w/ slightly different wording
slow jasper
Ty!
jagged niche
That places soil is already saturated to begin with
unborn timber
unborn timber
oh how i love manually sorting through 500+ damage indicators
...should have the Somerset-London project completed soon ™
will be v4.
I may also look into actually writing a script and recording a video, ala BobbyBroccoli's style. (maybe. depends if i want to stack another thing onto this messy tower I call a schedule.)
unborn timber
pain.
unborn timber
One of the more baffling points i've looked into so far,
Rated 150 MPH EF3... I.. really don't agree with this, likely failed at a much lower intensity. (note the lack of catastrophic damage to nearby structures)
(Measurement is to that beige shed, only 50 feet away.)
What likely happened is that wind was able to get under this patio (which completely surrounds the house, and does not try at all to deflect wind), and practically lifted it like a kite.
unborn timber
so much dumb note taking needed to figure out what in the who in the what in the how
There's 9 houses "rated" for this stretch of 7
2 houses got double counted. (this 140 MPH DI for "two houses" in a darn field should probably be removed. It is the source of the double count.)
House to the top (150 ???) was rolled across the street.
The (i'm assuming initial) surveyor assumed there was a house there that just collapsed straight down, then looked across the field- saw the house w/ ext. wall damage,
Jotted both down in one damage indicator (which is another no-no.), then stick his DI marker in a field (another no-no.)
Instead of removing this during QC- they tacked on a "Update- on further review, 'this house' (didn't say which of their 7 images) was from across the street"
This took about 40 minutes for me to figure out what happened during this process.
unborn timber
It's always uncanny when you're able to line it up 1-1, down to the same exact car being at the same spot. (Car likely got slightly pushed down the hill either just before or during the 2nd FL collapse, which crushed it.)
This was an EF2 damage indicator. (122 MPH.), no known fatalities at this location.
unborn timber
tl;dr- prolly delayed.
unborn timber
This might make a return, might finally test it on something. (Might aswell while redoing a section of it anyways.)
unborn timber
Globalquake has upped it's estimate to M7.2, (It is likely lower than that a tad bit.)
Edit- USGS has it at M6.7
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000qcik/executive
No tsunami expected w/ this one
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
had a M5.9 (estimated) foreshock
This is likely somewhat lower (Pure lack of stations in this area!)
Edit- Actually slightly higher- M7.5 per USGS
A tsunami watch has been issued for Hawaii, they're watching it closely.
Another strong one, My program's chucked it at M6.5-ish, 3rd M5.0+ one within 20 minutes
unborn timber
7 earthquakes recorded as of now, all M5.0+ per USGS
unborn timber
(I am so sorry that the one time y'all mention me in server discussion, there's absolutely no weather to talk about. I'm still here I promise.)
tropic leaf
unborn timber
X
Translation:
"🌩 A severe hailstorm hit the village of Les Bois in the Jura (Switzerland) on Thursday. Locally, a layer of ice several dozen centimeters thick fell! On Friday morning, the hail was still visible from the airplane... an utterly remarkable sight!
Credits Tom Rufer (via SrfMeteo) 👇🏻"
wooden wren
That's a beautiful photo. The localization there will make for some wild stories comparing the event with the neighbors.
unborn timber
..i missed the very brief tornado that occurred in Michigan today.
There was also one in Ontario,
https://fxtwitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1949267525151154271
Not getting any major reports of damage, pure "ooga booga look at the spinni cloud" side of things, but the weather has been so tame lately that the weather side of twitter is eating this up.
speaking of that however, i do have my eyes on the 29th, might have a bit of a wind threat for the area, might see a Slight/ Enhanced risk pop out here.
unborn timber
Keeping an eye on this segment as it approaches Grand Forks,
Just a segment getting a kink, might produce a quick spin up, my eyes are on the southern side of the warning, but any part of that segment could quickly produce one.
... Not expecting anything of real note per say, unless it gets tornadic just as it happens to be over a town.
unborn timber
..might have some straight-line wind induced powerline damage (eg- branches hitting powerlines) in Grand Forks,
unborn timber
https://x.com/elanazriel/status/1949378072769077398
Sign of straight-line wind damage at the least, likely stopped being tornadic before it crossed over town,
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
*speaking of that however*, i do have my eyes on the 29th, might have a bit of a...
I didn't think we'd get a MDT tbf
I am seeing some news sites saying "some areas could see 'hurricane force winds' " which.. yes, 75 MPH would be equivelant to a weak Category 1, but eh... i really don't like that analogy personally..
(There is good potential some areas see upwards to 95-100 MPH gusts.)
unborn timber
Expanded the MDT risk area, wording now says 75-90 MPH appears likely.
unborn timber
X
A lot of mergers behind the hook echo. This will likely continue for a long time and may get real strong.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
M8.7 off the coast of Russia
Tsunami warnings issued again
X
X
"Switched to a tsunami warning. Evacuate immediately."
Tsunami warning for Hawaii. (Upgraded from watch)
Wow, tsunami advisory for parts of New Zealand aswell.
3+ meter tsunami is probably for the Galapagos
Tsunami is expected in like 4 hours for Hawaii, 1 for Alaska.
You aint gonna see somethin like this for a long long time,
covert finch
The earth just nudged the biggest punchbowl at the party.
unborn timber
New update.
unborn timber
Tsunami's starting to hit northern Japan, currently marked at 1 meter per NHK's live broadcast.
3 FT in deeeep ocean 👀
(off the coast of Russia.)
Parts of Hawaii now forecasted to see 3+ meter waves.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Reports of whales beached (!?!?) near Japan, potential sign of a notable water withdrawal.
(Unsure if they were beached or somehow killed prior??)
Likely dead whales. Light NSFW tag.
||https://x.com/Wx_Gonza/status/1950392564965921080?t=Kaj16YCvAkDLY3vuaxLLUQ&s=19||
Edit: https://x.com/BNODesk/status/1950407027450171813?t=g2Oy-fqkl5feGtAn1GTusQ&s=19
unborn timber
Another mainland US forecast update, mostly downgraded (slightly
slow jasper
unborn timber
Highlighted all 1ft+ recordings (Last update was about 30 minutes ago)
Edit- Humboldt Bay got past me there, 1.2ft, just above Crescent City CA on the list.
unborn timber
Just for context of the total quakes today, 63 of these were M5.0+ (3 were M6.0+)
unborn timber
Most of Hawaii got away pretty okay, some areas did see 3+ ft, One area almost got 6 though.
Expecting little to no threat to life from this event for most areas, biggest risk at the time was Russian areas, but from footage seen- rural-ish environment and most (if not all) were able to evacuate prior to their tsunami (estimates are on the 10-15+ ft side, hoping they actually give us info on that.)
Scratch that- 1 indirect death reported in Japan.
Source- "The Japan News" https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250730-272908/
mystic wolf
A man in N Sweden completed the task of being struck by the lightning - Twice, and survive.https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/norrbotten/blixten-slog-ned-i-mikael-tva-ganger-samma-dag
unborn timber
...I haven't posted this here- but this may be of interest to some of y'all,
the Weather Spotter's Field Guide, 72 pages- used for the SKYWARN program. (Last updated 2011.)
https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/SGJune6-11(1).pdf
btw- going through the NWS's SKYWARN program is usually what switches you from "General Public" to "Storm Chaser" in internal reporting (Or you can do what I do and manage to find a complete backdoor and prove you can be helpful lol)
goood lil segment from it which points out common "mistaken objects"
(Again, look up your local NWS office- hey hold these classes fairly often, so you can pop in if it interests ya. No cost to enter.)
unborn timber
mystic wolf
Slept through one at 4.9
leaden mountain
I may have felt one. I’ll never know for sure.
It’s not in the top 10 things you think of here, so when I woke up I looked at the clock, cursed whoever was driving their truck through a residential neighbourhood in the middle of the night and went back to sleep.
The next moring I found out there had been a 5.6 about 100 miles away that matched the time.
blazing flame
the NYC 4.8 one in 2024 felt like a heavy streetpaving truck driving down the road
(that's what I thought it was for a while because that street had been repaved days before, and however things were angled made the vibrations seem to be travelling in the street's direction)
late belfry
the NYC 4.8 one in 2024 felt like a heavy streetpaving truck driving down the ro...
so did 2012 one in central brooklyn
but then you could feel everything harmonize and rock slowly
hushed radish
cinder surge
Anyone any Idea about the cause of recent flash floods in Uttarakhand, India. On August 5? (alleged cloudburst/glacial lake burst)
X
unborn timber
Main risk is looking like significant hailstones and damaging straight line wind, but a tornadic threat is possible.
unborn timber
Human vs AI assessment for today (Tornado risk only)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
80% of cyclone formation w/in the next 7 days, currently marked as Invest 97L if you wanna poke around w/ TropicalTidbits
(This area is at a 40% estimate to form w/in the next 2 days)
unborn timber
80% of cyclone formation w/in the next 7 days, currently marked as Invest 97L if...
Updated, 90/90 now.
https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1954877312496714023
(w/ Invest 97L marked)
X
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Models show a bit of an uptick in their forecasted intensity.
..might be worth watching. (Should stay out to sea off the E coast of the USA, too far out to say for any level of certainty)
unborn timber
quaint flame
blazing flame
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/labor-keeps-dire-climate-report-under-wraps-20250808-p5mliz
(archived https://archive.ph/7Djmw)
unborn timber
unborn timber
(it's been given category 5 btw, still should remain out to sea and not hit the USA, but still interesting to me.)
unborn timber
cloud igloo
Photos of the flooding in Milwaukee last weekend
Erin hopefully stays out to sea
I’m not a meteorologist so maybe someone can inform me on the patterns, my gut feeling is that a storm this early in the season dropping pressure so quickly doesn’t bode well for future systems
unborn timber
X
Welp, guess who missed this brief one in Iowa.
First tornado in the States in a good bit there
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Looks like a tornado in Northern Alabama currently
.... Something bizarre happened to form this one, looking more at it.
Lasted for 2 frames here (Not seen 4:34, potentially seen 4:39, was likely doing damage 4:45, was gone by 4:51)
X
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Acedog112/status/1958278068633764291
(self-cross post, 4 images.)
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
The level 3 area is mostly for excessive rainfall+ large hail+ damaging wind gusts,
blazing flame
Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.
Iceberg landscape with the midnight sun colours in Greenland
‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
Read moreThe research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models.
Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels.
…
The new results are “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%”, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.
…
We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. …”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study
(archived https://archive.ph/YcYTZ)
unborn timber
Super low chance but I'll take it
It has been dreadfully tame over the USA recently (in terms of weather.)
jagged niche
Inb4 crazy tornado outta nowhere west of the Rockies that does basically nothing in the middle of nowhere
unborn timber
Inb4 crazy tornado outta nowhere west of the Rockies that does basically nothing...
i've talked about my personal theory before- right? That'd be a sign to REALLY pay attention to the next few days east of the Rockies, lol.
(Also since this above forecast is for tomorrow- you'd need a Cali tornado like... 2 hours ago lol)
jagged niche
i've talked about my personal theory before- right? That'd be a sign to ***REALL...
You mentioned it a while ago in this thread iirc
I do remember you mentioning it vaguely
Something about “watch the weather for the next 3-4 days” right?
unborn timber
Something about “watch the weather for the next 3-4 days” right?
Usually- if something spins up W of the Rockies, watch E of the Rockies for the next 1-2 maybe 3 at the most days, usually an event is somewhat forecasted- but that tornado W of the Rockies suggests an upper end event may verify
i've bounced this idea with people so much smarter than me now and no one's really disproved or proved it yet, so it's in the solid theory period of it's life.
unborn timber
... Huh.
unborn timber
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Main concern is ME/NH border imo.
Throwing a bullshit "gut feeling didn't really look at the models too closely" target of... Rochester NH?
Good enough road network if you were storm chasing today.
unborn timber
there was likely a tornado today near Holden, MA
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
unborn timber
M7.3 estimated off the coast of Russia again.
USGS prelim of M7.7 👀 (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/pt25256000/executive)
(aand downgraded to 7.4)
gritty sonnet
https://x.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1966942540990738586?t=lXtKWnWMVuWiAf2zW-Mkyg...
Is that a dust devil or is it actually being reported as a tornado? I can't see an obvious mesocyclone or supercell formation
unborn timber
Is that a dust devil or is it actually being reported as a tornado? I can't see ...
It was a supercelluar tornado
w/ notable damage being recorded (Mobile homes significantly damaged.)
Btw- image #1 there- Mobile home eviscerated- built wooden steps still remain, biggest killer for these types of structures is how easy wind can get under it and turn whatever you're in into a sail.
gritty sonnet
Btw- image #1 there- Mobile home eviscerated- built wooden steps still remain, b...
Sheesh. What was it rated? Ef3-ish?
unborn timber
Sheesh. What was it rated? Ef3-ish?
It is still being rated,
But the contextual there suggests probably surprisingly lower than usual for atleast that first structure pictured.
unborn timber
X
^Technically an event to watch today, as yesterday had tornadoes W of the Rockies, Per my (unproven) superstition, might have decent odds of verifying, and potentially oververifying
unborn timber
^Already got 1 observed tornado in SD
unborn timber
X
..lil late because i was busy- but... yet, oververified, went PDS.
There's a bit of a mini spinup heaven going on rn in ND.
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
Look I'm going to sound absolutely insane but I wasn't really watching this event because my superstition didn't happen. (No tornadoes W of the Rockies, I know I sound like a broken record.)
... This event did absolutely nothing of note, I've actually managed to sway some other storm chasers into researching this more.
unborn timber
Monitoring a potentially significant flooding event that could occur Monday from Hurricane Imelda... Biggest concern is the Carolinas.
Pathing will be .... immensely chaotic if Humberto strays closer, you'll start to see the Fujiwhara effect. (Making predictions... tough.)
unborn timber
Pathing will be .... immensely chaotic if Humberto strays closer, you'll start t...
Still watching, should be given a name today,
unborn timber
X
unborn timber
A direct hit does not appear likely, still watching for potentially catastrophic flooding from the associated rain however.
unborn timber
Wow that got yanked back out to sea hard.
No longer really expecting flooding to be an issue.
native stump
Wow that got yanked back out to sea hard.
No longer really expecting flooding...
For real, seems like UKXI was the lucky winner this time. Wonder what the others missed?
unborn timber
For real, seems like UKXI was the lucky winner this time. Wonder what the others...
It really (in this case) was mainly determined on not only where this system was- but where the neighboring hurricane (Humberto) was, and how strong it got. Lot of variables not typically seen were thrown into the pot.
covert finch
My memory is hazy, but didn't a similar thing happen during the 2005 hurricane season? Two systems got really close and one did a U-turn out to sea?
unborn timber
Bermuda may have some issues later this week from Imelda
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1936374741952024852?t=f1jC4M-b5SaeWYp...
See here for discussion directly after the tornado.
First ND EF3+ in over a decade and it's an EF5
unborn timber
Notable thing- this is the first tornado to be given an EF5 rating for a non standard damage indicator (usually called a contextual.)
.... Certainly keeping an eye on other tornadoes from this year to see if they get updated.
unborn timber
This frame was around the time the train cars were thrown.
unborn timber
They cite this paper,
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/8/MWR-D-23-0251.1.xml
unborn timber
I am very interested in 46°35'5.29"N, 97°34'11.74"W
Looks like notable ground scouring ocurrred.
unborn timber
This type of subvort marking is typical on the front-right segment of the tornado,
The current path is too far south at the EF5 segment.
(I also have it marked as 250+? MPH due to Ethan+ NTP's math for the empty train car being thrown that far. They both have it at 260+)
Where the estimated centerpoint of the path should probably be for this segment vs where it is currently.
jagged niche
So TLDR: extra spooky tornado happened
unborn timber
The full math done by Tim Marshall for the rating
unborn timber
NWS first damage path estimate vs mine vs "areas of most note"- (potential ground scouring)
unborn timber
unborn timber
Cyclical markings! ( 46°38'18.99"N, 97°25'36.77"W)
This is from the Enderlin EF2, which occurred directly after the Enderlin EF5, this one was likely much stronger than it's rating suggests, mainly (and luckily) tracked over farmland which hindered any potential significant damage.
unborn timber
This is a first for me- this detected a massive explosion at a plant in TN,
X
Likely time of detonation was around 12:47:52 UTC.
leaden mountain
https://vxtwitter.com/weathernation/status/1977804027640598902
https://vxtwitter.com/restrictd_truth/status/1977844586589601955
unborn timber
..I'll be honest- yeah, didn't hear anything about this, personally.... Forwarding to other channels to see if they've heard about it/ if anyone was watching that.
unborn timber
Might get a tornado in Los Angeles today 👀
Waterspout producing QLCS heading onshore, might get a brief one near the city...
unborn timber
Also keeping an eye on Saturday (Oct 18th), should be mostly a straight line wind risk, but a tornado threat is somewhat possible, depends on if there's storms in the area before the main line fires or not.
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
I will agree w/ this poster that this does suggest it was decently strong at the time, Would not be surprised if France gets their first IF2(+) on record in a bit (last IF2 was in Morbihan in Feb.)
Certainly would be the first notable tornado in a majorly populated area for France (I believe, if my database searching isn't failing)
^Also- I am using the European Severe Weather Database (https://eswd.eu/en) for this
jagged niche
Shit. Diesnt Europe barely get any tornadoes compared to the States?
Huh so about 3-400? TIL
leaden mountain
We get a lot of small ones.
jagged niche
Learned something new today, nice. Still a scary event for sure
unborn timber
vast disagreements in both track and intensity atm.
Pretty sure it's going to hit hurricane status- and potentially could intensify quickly, but anything after 72 hours is honestly up in the air.
unborn timber
^Also of note- it's near stationary, (Which is why I suspect the models are so uncertain about the whole thing- it's more "at the whims" to other changes in the environment instead of the usual where a system like this would influence everything else more, it's a complicated symbiotic relationship, but this one is leaning more towards being influenced, than the influencer, atleast right now..),*
last documented at moving 2 MPH WNW, which puts notable concern for Jamaica and potentially Haiti if it fully stalls out off their coastlines, flooding would be the major concern.
People are saying that Melissa will likely become a major hurricane by Sunday- and yes, the data does suggest it tenfold, but i'm still cagey on it due to how erratic it's been so far- If it does continue on it's implied path, it could very easily be one of the strongest hurricanes we've seen in that area in a while real darn quickly, but if it hooks a right and slams into Jamaica now and fizzles out before it can do so, that's probably paradoxically better? Weird situation.
Absolute worst case scenario is that it stalls out SW of Jamaica, intensifies immensely, flooding the area at the same time- then hooks NE and directly nails it at Cat4-5 intensity, tacking on immense storm surge to the already catastrophic flooding from the outer bands.
..... Optimistically, as of now, that appears unlikely to occur exactly like that.
Pessimistically, I can't rule it out, and something similar to that actually occuring is still on the table.
I heavily dislike trying to figure out what tropical systems are going to do due to situations like this, where the genuinely best outlook I can give is a shrug emoji.
^ As an aside, semi-worst case scenario still has feet of rainfall for a decent swath of the island, still would be absolutely catastrophic..
And as a fun lil thought exercise, I don't see a best case scenario that doesn't involve someone getting the short end of the stick somehow.
My theorized best case hypothetical still would dump just as much rain onto Jamaica, just without the additional threat of a very strong hurricane afterwards, ripping the bandaid off sorta scenario.
unborn timber
^This is all before you get into the diplomacy hypotheticals between VEN-USA, i'm not focused on that- but on that side, you kindof want this to take as long as possible for diplomatic meetings. (Things are pretty tense currently on that front.)
unborn timber
hahahahaha not happening....willing to eat a hat if it does, (204kts= 234 MPH)
This is what I mean by I do not fully trust some of the models' output currently
unborn timber
TS Mellisa is now moving W at 1 MPH 🙃
jagged niche
In ELI5 terms, how bad is that?
unborn timber
It's going nowhere- and avoiding land, which will (likely) allow it to get stronger and stronger.
covert finch
What are the water temps like in the area?
