#Weather and geological phenomena

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unborn timber
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^Pictured- California Wildfire near Santa Monica

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and you can grab gifs.

unborn timber
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Winds are expected to pick up in the coming hours, this will likely be a historic fire.

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Tomorrow's Fire Weather Outlook per the NWS.

unborn timber
unborn timber
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This will undoubtably be a very historic fire for many years to come. Still uncontained, it is about to get so much worse.

jagged niche
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And it’s not 10 days deep into the year

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We are 7 days deep

unborn timber
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This is the new fire i'd be concerned about given the current winds. (SW)

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...That area may see 80-100 MPH gusts here in a bit, that'll be completely uncontrollable if that verifies out.

grave spear
unborn timber
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All firefighting aircraft grounded due to high winds.

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PDS Red Flag warning issued for LA.- Includes areas such as Hollywood and Beverly Hills.

unborn timber
karmic flame
grave spear
jagged niche
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…that’s an easy way to tell people it’s serious.

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Granted, all fires near metro areas are serious. But even then.

unborn timber
unborn timber
jagged niche
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Oh, that explains why, my bad.

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
mental lotus
mental lotus
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I'm looking for another source about if this is true

mental lotus
# mental lotus I'm looking for another source about if this is true

I'm only finding that LAFD is asking their own employees to report their status, not as it's being reported on some areas of social media, that they want anyone with firefighting experience to call.
https://vxtwitter.com/LAFD/status/1876817689949208942?t=1aVBxxIHk4WG1_QKS1D4cw&s=19

jagged niche
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||https://bsky.app/profile/ericholthaus.com/post/3lf7bf5ba4s2j||

idk validity but I might as well share edit: ok the link is misinfo

The Los Angeles Fire Department is doing something they’ve never done before — they’re asking anyone with firefighting experience to assist in fighting the #Palisades fire and the #Eaton fire and reach out to 213-576-8962.

This could become one of the worst firestorms in California history.

Reposts

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mental lotus
jagged niche
jagged niche
mental lotus
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Because consequences can be dire (eg, the hotline will get shat up by people calling in good faith) when I see something unusual I go looking for a second independent source (first stop is the actual department).

jagged niche
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Fair point, thank you. 🙂

mental lotus
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that's ok! We're learning. And this is turning into a MESS

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This is a parody account of Kash Patel thankfully but the reach is alarming

unborn timber
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It is not going to be pretty in the morning.

mental lotus
unborn timber
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Wild footage. (Especially 20 seconds in- that's on the beach.)

jagged niche
mental lotus
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I'd do your own checks too (since the point of the server is research and I assume you want to research)

jagged niche
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Was also informed about where to check for proper updates since I’m not fluent in all things firefighting. Will keep it in mind for the future

hardy geyser
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It looks like Biden is in LA right now.

As of now, President Biden remains at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), though it’s unclear whether the trip will be rescheduled. No further details have been provided by the White House at this time.

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In an unexpected turn of events, President Joe Biden's scheduled trip to the Coachella Valley has been canceled, sources confirm. The disruption is attributed to the high winds currently affecting both the Los Angeles area and the Coachella Valley.Reports indicate that President Biden’s flight, which was set to land at the Thermal Airport at 10:...

jagged niche
unborn timber
jagged niche
unborn timber
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(Literal top of a mountain- expected gusts for populated areas will be much lower- 100 MPH at most in valleys atm.)

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(But if this wind speed is verified, one of the highest non-tornadic wind gusts recorded in recent history.)

jagged niche
unborn timber
limber mesa
unborn timber
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So they've stopped updating the estimated fire perimeter since late Tues evening- but VIIRS has a good rough scope

limber mesa
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Meanwhile in the Plains we're freezing our asses off. Puts a fine point on the extremes that climate change is bringing us

unborn timber
slow jasper
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random question: Why is weather considered off-topic?

unborn timber
# slow jasper random question: Why is weather considered off-topic?

mainly because it's sporadic and when it does hit- lot of news in a very short period of time, but most of the year- idle chit chat about snow or local events. This channel originally started for me to nerd out about tornado geolocations.

(Might also be a bit related to the fact that you can "self monitor" weather events a little easier than most news events, thanks to the radars being open to the public.)

unborn timber
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(Quoted tweet for above- 85 MPH gust at the airport.)

quaint flame
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Alright folks resource time

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it's ABC's live raw feed from the fires

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
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Geolocated to (34.04720212481078, -118.52600777759974) moving south.

languid belfry
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oh wow

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
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Area in question in relation to the last perimeter update.

karmic flame
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Wow, that is awful. Good work to id

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To give an idea of the nominal loss here, here is Zillows estimated values for the residential properties on one block in your pic. It’s about 40m plus some commercial properties.

unborn timber
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Yeah this will make a good effort at being the most costliest wildfire in American history, probably.

Current "record" is the 2018 Camp Fire (aka the Paradise Fire)- $16.65 billion estimated in damages.

unborn timber
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I'd estimate this entire dotted section is significantly damaged if not destroyed.

unborn timber
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The estimated perimeter map was updated finally.

unborn timber
karmic flame
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Eaton fire is getting deep into the suburbs: Fire at 2 dragons martial arts on KTLA. Location: 2490 N. Lake Ave. Altadena, CA 91101

karmic flame
austere verge
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Although I grew up there, it's very hard to recognize the buildings!

karmic flame
tacit geode
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https://bsky.app/profile/jimmyalto.bsky.social/post/3lfb56rqz322x

I've got the end of the video to here -

https://maps.app.goo.gl/zugG6N6tynWnAZvm9

I doubt the $25m figure is right but still there's a lot of homes gone here, pretty far away from palisades

#PalisadesFire
every $25-Million-dollar house on the beach along Pacific Coast Highway in #Malibu is gone...

▶ Play video
karmic flame
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🚨#BREAKING: Aerial shot of Pacific Palisades showing a whole neighbourhood destroyed after brush fire. https://t.co/hARcWFLoQM - https://x.com/Worldsource24/status/1877139696033075583

karmic flame
# tacit geode https://bsky.app/profile/jimmyalto.bsky.social/post/3lfb56rqz322x I've got the ...

Zillow has this strip as 2-8 million estimated. I checked history of the highest estimated prices and found up to ~5 million prices. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/19858-Pacific-Coast-Hwy-Malibu-CA-90265/20551608_zpid/

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I'd agree with your judgment.

karmic flame
unborn timber
unborn timber
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This is such a weird fire event- all of the people not evacuating and effectively working as "localized" firefighting squads for their neighborhoods is very effective, at least on first glance. It is effectively full guerilla warfare against the elements currently.

left bridge
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Some Maxar imagery showing some of the preliminary damage. Sort of insane to see how widespread it is for such a highly populated area

hardy geyser
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This video seems to be filmed by someone on a bicycle. It's hard to find words for the level of loss in this video. If I have time I will try to map this out, maybe starting around 15:50 where the damage begins to be shown. Before this point in the video, the amount of material and personnel seen in this staging area is staggering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfAY0x5CT7k

On Wednesday, January 8, 2025, the Pacific Palisades Bowl Mobile Estates, a well-known mobile home community along the iconic Pacific Coast Highway, was completely destroyed by a fast-moving wildfire. Located at 16321 Pacific Coast Highway, across from Will Rogers State Beach, the park’s 172 mobile homes were reduced to rubble, leaving residents...

▶ Play video
grizzled storm
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yesterday vs today

hardy geyser
swift nymph
grizzled storm
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34,0089077, -118,4883294

leaden mountain
swift nymph
leaden mountain
unborn timber
tropic leaf
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Los Angeles officials hold news conference on response to wildfires in California.
–––

Subscribe to ABC News on YouTube: https://abcnews.visitlink.me/59aJ1G

Watch 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events on ABC News Live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN0PZCe-kwQ&ab_channel=ABCNews

Watch full episodes of World News Tonight with David...

▶ Play video
unborn timber
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Warning if you're looking into the event
The Weather Channel accidently showed a fatality on air, fully burned to the point of skeletonization (?- there's likely a term for this, but completely burned to the point where bones are the only thing left.)

limber mesa
unborn timber
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Body recovery ongoing in Malibu.

blazing flame
grave spear
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Thank you, fire watchers!

tacit geode
unborn timber
tropic leaf
silent nymph
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someone is going to jail for a long time

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plane landed safely

paper blade
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Some duct tape will get that in the air again

leaden mountain
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Speed tape, but I'm not sure this is within specifications. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_tape

Speed tape is an aluminium pressure-sensitive tape used to perform minor repairs on aircraft and racing cars. It is used as a temporary repair material until a more permanent repair can be carried out. It has an appearance similar to duct tape, for which it is sometimes mistaken, but its adhesive is capable of sticking on an airplane fuselage or...

limber mesa
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Not for structural damage like that no

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Speedtape is just for pinning something down temporarily

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or fixing a panel gap

late belfry
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Parts of Encino and Tarzana are now under evacuation orders

unborn timber
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400-megapixel image of the aftermath of the Palisade area.- Very handy for cross checking if a suspected house is still standing

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I will be using this to specifically map destroyed structures,

unborn timber
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I have so fucking more left to map.

unborn timber
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Calling it quits for today. I'd estimate over 1,000 structures in the area I went over alone. I stopped counting for sanity's sake. 99% of the northern segment of this area is leveled.

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This segment had the most "structure survivors." in the northern destruction, mapping this felt like mapping an inverse tornado path. Very curious to see if these were patches of people who stayed behind who held out together (Specifically that stretch of 9 houses in a cluster along Bester BLVD, Whitfield AVE, and up onto Mc Kendree AVE)

limber mesa
grave spear
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Does anyone have a current % of containment for this fire?

blazing flame
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apparently Amtrak’s continuing with their pre-scheduled track maintenance in the LA area
https://bsky.app/profile/keribla.bsky.social/post/3lfih253aa224
the Amtrak track closures page
https://www.pacificsurfliner.com/plan-your-trip/alerts/travel-advisories/#trackclosures

It is literally insane to me that Amtrak picked THIS WEEKEND for their pre-scheduled maintenance and shut down the train out of LA instead of rescheduling the maintenance as people are fleeing for their lives

Learn about ongoing construction projects that contribute to improvements in rail travel in Southern California, and stay ahead of planned service disruptions.

unborn timber
unborn timber
unkempt jasper
silent nymph
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I'm guessing EW isn't a solution to not affect the aircrafts, why are people like this..

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It's easy to track them down too since they all post it online

grizzled storm
limber mesa
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the hard crash is wild

unkempt jasper
umbral thistle
unkempt jasper
unkempt jasper
# grizzled storm theres now a fact checking site https://gavinnewsom.com/california-fire-facts/

Wild that his fact check website has a "fact" that is demonstrably wrong.

FACT: Wildland firefighters don’t use hydrants — they use water tenders. And that is what has been used to ensure continued water access. Three million gallons of water were stored in three large tanks for fire hydrants in the area before the Palisades fire, but the supply was exhausted because of the extraordinary nature of this hurricane-force firestorm.
Even Type 6 engines (Modified pickup trucks to have water tanks and pumps, smallest of wildland firefighting engines) have tools to access fire hydrants. I worked on a Type 6 and we'd use fire hydrants to refill if that was the easiest available source. Having the ability to refill from a water source (hydrant, pond, lake, river, etc) directly rather than waiting on a tender is a nice thing to have, especially depending on how close that source is versus waiting on a tender to come to you. Tenders can also refill at hydrants

tropic leaf
unkempt jasper
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Gift link: https://wapo.st/3Ci3ASa

Despite that — and warnings of an intense and dangerous wind event last week — a Los Angeles Fire Department spokesman told The Post on Friday that it was not the department’s practice to maintain patrols of past fire sites, even for a few days after fires have gone cold.

Washington Post

The Post’s analysis offers evidence that the Palisades Fire started in the area where firefighters had spent hours using helicopters to knock down a blaze six days earlier.

tender verge
unkempt jasper
unborn timber
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PDS Red Flag warning 2 days in advance worrysip

unborn timber
mental lotus
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#announcements message

unkempt jasper
blazing flame
unborn timber
unborn timber
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Turns out the victim in this area was fairly well known locally.
Stayed behind defending his home, found deceased with his kitten.

blazing flame
blazing flame
spice lodge
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Want to add I really appreciate what you are doing and I imagine this community will assist immensely but also curious how to support this map advertised to residents. It does have some photo documentation.

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Also @everyone I work in Altadena and am affected by the Eaton fire. If anyone has any questions just wanted you all to know.

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A group of local researchers is organizing under the name Resilience Alliance-- please follow if you can:

unborn timber
# spice lodge Want to add I really appreciate what you are doing and I imagine this community ...

It appears to be mapped very similarly to how the NWS does tornado assessments- looks to be mostly internally vetted sources (sending someone down, describing the damage, take a photo)

In fact- this might be partially surveyed by the NWS.

Side gripe- i dont know why the hell the NWS can't use drones for assessing damage. (Like- ever, Heli trip, or satellite scan is aight- but everything else has to be in person. It's something Canada does that I wish we'd adopt.)

spice lodge
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I do think you are right as I was at a home nearby and CalFire was going door to door to assess damage and take photos.

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I think the drones create an issue with the helicopters who are getting up the mountain with water etc.

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Given its "active fire"

unborn timber
spice lodge
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I see. Got it. There have been drone videos made I've seen online so maybe they will come in time.

unborn timber
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I personally use it a lot for my mapping efforts (again- mainly tornado projects)- but the NWS tends to not use them even when sent the footage by the original filmer.

(Depends per office, but a majority wont.)

spice lodge
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We used them to map the development we are advocating to conserve. It allowed a lumion viewer where you can move around and all these other outputs like a rendering of elevation and videos and more.

grizzled storm
spice lodge
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@mental lotus just confirming the wildfire office hours -- was yesterday?

grizzled storm
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It's recorded

spice lodge
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Thank you @grizzled storm n where might I find a link

grizzled storm
grizzled storm
blazing flame
unborn timber
spice lodge
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hello all does anyone know of a gis platform or layers for copernicus that would reveal levels of lead, etc. in the ash in Los Angeles? We are trying to establish areas of special concern and priority

leaden mountain
spice lodge
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Oh thanks I thought it was thread specific, apologies @leaden mountain

unborn timber
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Corporate side of things, but yeah it's not goin so well for meteorologists atm

leaden mountain
unborn timber
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Brutal period for southern Cali lately, this is like day 4-5 of being under the gun.

severe kernel
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What does RH stand for in this context?

tender verge
# severe kernel What does RH stand for in this context?

Relative Humidity.

They seem to be calling for 15% or lower. IIRC, risk climbs rapidly as the RH drops below 30%.

The basic idea is that low humidity sucks moisture out of the vegetation. And moisture loss is accelerated by wind, so those numbers look pretty scary to me.

severe kernel
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Oh that makes sense. Thanks!

unkempt jasper
unborn timber
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(I was setting up v. 1.0 of Global Quake and this gave me a damn heart attack, haven't configured my alerts to be quieter yet.)

unborn timber
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(European sorta version of the NWS's public forecasting network will no longer issue their forecasts for a fear of it being misconstrued.)

unborn timber
unborn timber
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State of Emergency issued for FL for the upcoming winter storm system, specifically uses the phrase "Gulf of America"

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As far as I can tell- every NWS office is still using the phrase Gulf of Mexico, thank god.

This includes the NWS offices covering FL, including- MOB, TBW, MFL, (TAE, KEY and JAX just refer to it as "the Gulf" or "The Gulf Coast", MLB straight up avoids mentioning it)

unborn timber
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welp. hot off the presses. (Section below this states that w/in 30 days, the Secretary of the Interior shall take all appropriate actions to rename the Gulf, and to update the GNIS, and in turn, all federal references. Likely including the NWS if this doesn't get stopped)

grizzled storm
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I have so many questions

hardy geyser
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From what I have learned after a little digging, the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, under the United States Geographic Survey (USGS) is responsible for place names. I’m not sure if an executive order can cut it.
https://www.usgs.gov/us-board-on-geographic-names

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The membership of the Board shall include one representative from each of the Departments of State, Defense, Interior, Agriculture, and Commerce, and from the Government Publishing Office, the United States Postal Service, and the Library of Congress. The Board may also include representatives from such Federal agencies as the Secretary, upon recommendation of the Board, shall from time to time find desirable, even though these agencies are in the departments otherwise represented on the Board. The members of the Board shall be appointed by the respective heads of the departments or independent agencies that they represent.

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This would be a process that could take a considerable amount of time to finalize.

unborn timber
hardy geyser
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And, it would take considerable resources ($) to change all of the maps, documentation, MOAs, legal documents regarding international partners, and so on.

grizzled storm
unborn timber
slow jasper
spice lodge
limber mesa
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might have been deleted

slow jasper
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Hmm it does appear to have been deleted. Sad.

unborn timber
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temp this morning (around 6* AM EST)

(Good typo, me, 10/10.)

limber mesa
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sorry Kansas you don't get temperature

pliant zenith
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neither does wyoming or arkansas, or either of the carolinas

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or indeed virginias

tacit geode
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Bit windy in Ireland

unborn timber
unborn timber
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Taiwan is just gettin rattled lately

unborn timber
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me being a pure nerd about the EO.

grim salmon
unborn timber
unborn timber
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this one's also being refined down as more stations are getting it- but wut

limber mesa
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bweh

jagged niche
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Goddamnit I forgot the name of that program…

unborn timber
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You can either run a whole personal instance which will absolutely eat up your RAM- ooor just use the public YT livestream https://www.youtube.com/@GlobalQuake which is what I recommend for like 99.999% of people, the standalone program is pure nerd shit* and the livestream has everything you'd likely need anyways.

(*I can say this as the local weather/ geological phenomena nerd.)

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Fair warning- there will be alarms and whoops if the program detects an earthquake (This is configurable in the standalone program.) , and typically louder ones for more notable quakes, so like.. don't have it at max volume obviously unless if you like giving yourself a heart attack for a M5.0 half way across the world from you.

jagged niche
languid belfry
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so cool, thanks for sharing

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when the triangles (those are monitoring stations, right?) light up and flash ,that means that they've dected seismic activity?

grim salmon
unborn timber
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There should also be a flashing box somewhere else that is where the estimated epicenter would be if they are seeing the same event. (but typically if it's not at the next stage, usually a false alarm)

If enough stations register an event- it starts acting like it is an earthquake, estimating the epicenter and intensity using all of the stations

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OLD SCREENSHOT FOR EXPLAINING THE UI-
(Also for future searching- " GLOBALQUAKE UI ")

1- Max estimated "felt" intensity
2- "Letter grade"- this is how confident GlobalQuake is in it's own assessment, the more stations reporting matching data, the higher that grade gets. (I typically ignore all "events" with a rating of D or lower)
3-"Estimated Magnitude"- Uses each station individually and plots out what each station thinks it just felt, (may include events such as "we felt a lil shake here, systems estimate it to be x miles away, therefore M7.0 when it was much closer and is actually like a 3- Overall, the stations should overall agree on a rough intensity)
4-"Additional Info"- This includes the "range of error" for the positioning of the epicenter(in all 3 axis), the number of stations that felt it, and how many are agreeing they felt something (good to catch stations that should have felt something, and didn't, usually indicates a potential false alarm- or a downed station due to [usually] power loss or repair.
5- "Local estimated intensity"- Same color scale as the typical MMI scale, if you were standing in this area, the program estimates you'd feel it at that intensity.
6- "Felt by"- Self explanatory, includes estimated magnitude, and how many may have felt it (and how mant may have felt heavy shaking)

Adding onto this- explaining the sounds you may hear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNehu6z-faE

This is mostly for @languid belfry and hopefully this wont ping ya since I edited this in.

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You may see blue, red and green rings propagate out from stronger earthquakes- you don't really have to worry about that- that is quite literally the "speed" of the earthquake as it crosses the surface of the earth. (very brutal oversimplification) Good if you're close to a major earthquake- this is the same sorta system governments use to send out those alerts, not really helpful anytime else unless you're a big nerd and want to measure it yourself/ see it on a station near you (wait until it crosses your local station, then read the output)

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also important note that I should add- GlobalQuake (on default settings and permissions from laboratories) is typically on around a 30 second delay, this is a GREAT verification/ international "hey something may have happened" tool- and maybe a good warning tool in specific cases, but your local government will likely have the timing beat.

jagged niche
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The explination is why I love being in this server

unborn timber
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I often joke that if a nuke goes off somewhere- earthquake nerds might be the first to pick up on it. (and then me like 2 minutes later)

unborn timber
# grim salmon USGS put this at a 3.9

Also a good note- Global Quake is good, but as you can notice- not a lot of stations. It pulls from stations that willingly put out their data to the public for free which is like, majority USA, EU, AUS, and specifically NZ lmao, it's actually tamed down on the public release, but they have thousands set to public, any lil M1.5-M2.0 (which are hardly felt by anyone ever get caught in a heartbeat at any place in NZ)

Governments will have so much more available to them so always lean towards their assessments once they come out.

grim salmon
unborn timber
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also of note- you may also find great programs/ resources for specific countries- for example, JQuake, which focuses entirely on Japan https://www.youtube.com/@JQuake
Do some digging, you might find somethin cool out and about!

limber mesa
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Imagine standing on the front lines of a raging wildfire. From the ground, you watch as a pathfinder marks the target, showing exactly where the fire retardant needs to go. Suddenly, a massive KC-10 Air Tanker appears, skimming just 150 to 200 feet above the brush—barely clearing the hilltop—as it releases ninety-four hundred pounds of life-savi...

▶ Play video
silent nymph
# unborn timber I often joke that if a nuke goes off somewhere- earthquake nerds *might* be the ...

this made me curious so i looked, and its true they can indeed pick up underground nuke tests, and can even pick up smaller nuke tests if they have access to enough sensors
https://eos.org/articles/could-seismic-networks-reveal-hard-to-detect-nuclear-tests

Eos

In the age of monitoring nuclear weapons testing, existing regional seismic networks may be a key to discovering small, undetected explosions around the world.

unborn timber
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My hobby may be coming to an end. Heartbroken. I may be leaving the USA fairly soon so I may go quiet.

May god have mercy on the states and her people.

leaden mountain
unborn timber
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Hawaii saw a bit of a severe weather event just off the coast today.

unborn timber
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absolutely nothin for the past few hours- Forecast was downgraded from 5% to 2% for the overnight period.

unborn timber
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Seems like Oklahoma is attempting to regulate storm chasers who are employed directly by news organizations (which, very important for live updates in severe weather events, usually freelance work)

blazing flame
unborn timber
unborn timber
limber mesa
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holy

unborn timber
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Majority of these are weaker and probably didn't do too much damage (upper limit of around M4.5 so far, majority sub M3.0), but there is concern that it may be a sign of somethin else about to happen (either a larger quake, or a volcanic eruption- although the underlying consensus is probably not volcanic related)

But for either scenario- a tsunami would probably be the greatest concern if something happened

limber mesa
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yeah that's about what Gerasimos Papadopoulos said

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he's a seismologist in the area

unborn timber
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tl;dr- Weird thing happening- everyone's sorta watching in case it is a sign of something worse- could very much end up fizzling out as well- no one's sure. Just a notable oddity atm

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Will say though- attempting to use my version of GlobalQuake is near impossible unless I start filtering (Image #1- The last 1,000 earthquakes world wide (aka- no filtering)
#2- Limited to the last 48 hours
#3- Limited to the past 5. (Still a little cluttered!)

Might have to turn old quakes off for a bit

limber mesa
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yeah I'm interested to see if it's a precursor or just fades

silent nymph
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Newly discovered Tunguska like asteroid has a currently estimated 1.3% chance of hitting earth in 2032
more info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4

2024 YR4 is an asteroid between 40 and 100 metres (130 and 330 ft) in diameter, classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object. It was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024. As of 4 February 2025, 2024 YR4 was rated 3 on the Torino scale with a 1 in 63 ...

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impact risk corridor

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important note: this is preliminary calculations, the asteroid is currently moving away from earth. more precise estimates will be available when it comes back. This is what happened in 2004 with apophis. back then the initial estimate was a 2.7% chance of it hitting earth, and it has since been downgraded to zero chance. In other words, dont panic yet

grim salmon
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So just fyi for the purposes of data - NOAA has been breached by Musk and his wrecking crew

grim salmon
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Presently, climate.gov is still up, but is likely in danger. Get whatever data you need sooner rather than later. I don’t know who has been archiving or saving the data from that website.

grim salmon
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FYI - get your data before it disappears

unborn timber
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New lil graphic on the side there- "Most Probable Peak Intensity"

mystic wolf
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A bit windy atm

unborn timber
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First chase of 2025 🫡

umbral thistle
silent nymph
tacit geode
unborn timber
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No real human impacts expected for this one- occurred in the ocean, in a manor that didn't support tsunamis, a rare "peaceful" strong one imo.

limber mesa
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sometimes the ocean just goes boom

mystic wolf
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Good read about the asteroid.

unborn timber
jagged niche
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@unborn timber taking a peek at the GlobalQuake livestream and dang theres plenty near Greece rn

unborn timber
#

yup, still goin on lol

jagged niche
#

For some reason theres plenty in west Tx too :/

unborn timber
languid belfry
#

Getting ready for the snow storm here in Toronto

unborn timber
#

We might get a little fucked (scientific term) in the mountains here too btw- parts of KY already had record (daily) rainfall rates yesterday, some areas may also get packed w/ either more rain or snow (depends how north you get.)

#

it's valley life- we just avoid the low bits and hope no rocks start sliding 🤠 (Most of my local area is more elevated than the river, buuut a few houses/ areas consistently get flooded every couple years)

#

i am doin my thing in the other servers as usual

#

This is actually a more "recent" hypothesis (like paper published 2023/2024) from a few people who I somewhat have talked to before!

Nudger events!
(storm gets behind another storm's hook echo- "bumps" the "important storm" forwards into it's own inflow, storm starts wrappin up real quickly and tends to produce a tornado)

#
jagged niche
#

Pretty intense thunderstorm passed by and woke up to it banging at my house this morninghttps://x.com/iembot_fwd/status/1889681216342991158

Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Robertson, east central Milam and Leon Counties through 915 AM CST [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.50 IN] https://t.co/KieO0XOr7K

unborn timber
#

There's actually 2 tornado watches issued rn (more "broad" of a warning- "this area may see higher than average chances for a tornado"- which then will be given a tornado warning within said watch)

#

70/60 on that 2nd one is certainly 👀

unborn timber
#

Yeah, prolly about to get some tornados in MS- we're a tiny bit ahead of the expected "start time" and there's already a cell churnin

#

Tibbie aint never do me wrong i tell ya- if you ever wanna chase Dixie head towards that area I promise ya. it'll be the best worst experience in your life.

#

(Nothin but TREES in that area.)

#

Oooh that is a mighty tight velocity couplet, I'd be amazed if this doesn't produce something.

#

. .pockets of rotations I'm watching off this one radar.

grim salmon
jagged niche
# grim salmon Fracking?

Fracking or not (basically guaranteed that), its weird seeing a spike in the middle of an otherwise stable area

grim salmon
jagged niche
unborn timber
#

Tibbie done never done me wrong (Part 3)

unborn timber
# unborn timber

Likely a strong if not violent tornado just S of Coffeeville, AL now.

#

PDS issued for this one

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Saturday discussion.

#

Leaning more towards a damaging straight-line event, but tornado risk is also noted.

blazing flame
unborn timber
#

Excessive Rainfall outlook for Saturday

#

We may be looking at another notable if not historic flooding event for the Appalachians (Details to be fleshed out over the next few days as confidence in the model runs grow.)

#

Will it be 10-12 ft bad like in 2020? Prolly not, but flash flooding on a smaller scale could still be quite damaging for the local areas.

My main concern is how sudden it may get flooded, in 2020 it was a real damn slow creep over the prior weeks.

unborn timber
#

Light earthquake in Cali to follow up.

unborn timber
#

That's not good (Greece)

#

Consistent shaking now, certainly a change in the "event" type.

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Daily rainfall totals for Central KY and TN (3 hours old)

unborn timber
#

more funny but this dude got ripped into immediately

unborn timber
#

Not again man

unborn timber
#

I'm going to be out, helping local areas, flooding quick here

#

I'd wager the rivers already up 6-7 ft

mystic wolf
#

Take care and don't do anything stupid

unborn timber
#

Some of the inlets for the Cumberland River have reversed the river flooding into them I have never seen the water this fast

#

We're still at an estimated 6 maybe 7 ft for the Cumberland River yeah

grim salmon
#

Omg wow

unborn timber
#

There's debris in the river, small stuff like a child's playground slide, ice coolers, small stuff like that

grim salmon
#

This is TN?

unborn timber
#

Southern KY

grim salmon
#

Got it

unborn timber
#

Appalachia

leaden mountain
#

What Palt said.

unborn timber
mystic wolf
#

I'm not an expert but I would say that the level of moisture is a bit higher than it should.

unborn timber
#

Had to hitchhike home, 23.5 ft crest at the moment, forecasted to get around 31-32 dt

#

Will head back out tomorrow

#

No structural damage seen this trip, saw one capsized boat (looked to still be partially attached to a trailer), and a fair bit of "light debris" in the river (ex. Ice coolers, plastic playground slides, tree trunks, etc)

#

So someone lost shit, but not their entire house/ mobile home it seems

#

Back in 2020 we had entire mobile homes get washed out, real nasty scene, think we had like 10-15 deaths that event. (Around a 30 ft crest back then too.)

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

some areas are already past their predictions

grim salmon
#

How’d things go overnight?

unborn timber
#

28 ft now. expected to still creep up to 31/32 for my local area,

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

so google maps updated their Los Angeles satellite view..

unborn timber
#

close zoom on the elephant in the room, wrote off the entire stretch of land.

silent nymph
unborn timber
#

(Photos were taken yesterday)

Water's risen another couple of ft, est 30/31 atm, it's gonna hold at this height for a day or two and slowly recede, but it's currently snowing here

unborn timber
#

Starting to recede! around 27-28 ft, will continue to lower over the next few days, got some nice snow pics i'll export soon ™️

jagged niche
#

holy shit the way my mood CHANGED when i saw how high this was

jagged niche
grim salmon
jagged niche
#

Heard something backed up, + freezing temps caused all this

grim salmon
#

Saw a claim that it is more likely to hit the moon now. I have not had a chance to source that claim - if anyone has info, that would be appreciated

pliant zenith
#

earlier it was said that it had 1.2% probability of hitting the moon but I assume that's been since changed with additional observations

silent nymph
pliant zenith
silent nymph
#

oh, i misread i thought you were saying it was 1.2 for the earth

#

mb

grim salmon
severe kernel
#

I'm around here but didn't feel it lilmad

#

Maybe I'll get to feel the big ones though ™

unborn timber
#

My personal take on the next several weeks, going into the early-mid spring.

Early March cold then the Eastern Hem MJO orbit + -EAMT next week triggers a sudden transition to spring mid-March.

I suspect after that the -NAO tries to make a come back near the tail end of March into early April w/ the -PNA & Scandinavian ridge returning & a weste...

▶ Play video
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Tldr: Weather nerds I respect very dearly are noticing a close resemblance in the overall weather pattern (that is currently forecasted) as the 2011 tornado season.

#

(which, yes- did have the Super Outbreak in the southern USA, but a majority of the tornado setups were rain wrapped blobs of mess, including tornadoes such as the Joplin EF5)

unborn timber
#

Reminder- spins the other way across the equator.

limber mesa
#

ah, right. I almost forgot :P

slow jasper
#

Fascinating

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Also if we gut the NWS over here- hopefully EU steps up, there'd be a mighty fine pool of scientists....

unborn timber
#

it's going great in other servers right now 🙃

(Most of my stormchasing/ weather discords have a no politics rule but that is way out of the window, everyone's pissed off at this)

unborn timber
#

Like, this is what the NWS provides for "free" (read slightly lower)- they want $8 a month for it, ($80 a year price atm, 21.9178 cents a year)

NWS charges us like $3 a year in tax split. Effectively free (0.8219 cents a day, Accuweather wants to charge you 2,666.7% more than what the NWS does, for honestly not that much more.)

#

Accuweather's CEO is involved with Project 2025

#

btw fun note- if you want long range models, which are included in the next tier, Accuweather would effectively be upcharging you ($200 a year vs NOAA's like $3)
6,666.6666 (repeating) %

unborn timber
unborn timber
limber mesa
#

Storm season is coming fast for Tornado Alley, I don't wanna think about the implications

unborn timber
#

Looking at an event Tuesday, 🚬

unborn timber
#

Strong quake in western TX?

#

USGS has it marked as M2.6, probably under strict review as some TX seismic stations are quite scuffed. (But this triggered so many, including a few in OK, i'd be shocked if this remains marked as M2.6)

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

how today's event looks like to me, personally.

#

i cri.

(Looks very favorable for some beautiful tornadoes today over the open plain, in pure flat terrain with limited risk to any civilization.)

(I have work tomorrow in KY,)

unborn timber
grim salmon
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

We're looking at a potential severe weather event on the 15th/16th.

#

I'll be more comfortable talking specifics in a few days if the models continue being consistent, but this current run certainly suggests a notable event.

(966mb low in fuckin Kansas wut)

#

^If that was over the Gulf, we'd likely be talking about a Cat 2 hurricane lmao

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Violent/ extreme earthquake near Greenland/ Iceland.

unborn timber
#

(Probably felt at around a 5-7 on the MMI scale for these poor guys, likely the only people who felt this one.)

unborn timber
unborn timber
# unborn timber

So this is the first time we've had two 30% forecasts pop up within the same year (since like 2016 when this new system was introduced)

and they're back to back 30%'s- fun little stat there.

#

Very notable wording for 4 days out.

unborn timber
#

random strong FL tornado yesterday while Twitter was down lol, finally had a chance to pull the footage to geolocate this very close call a mail carrier (?) had.

unborn timber
grim salmon
#

Authored in part by NOAA scientists - this is originally from 2018 - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/amsm/59/1/amsmonographs-d-18-0020.1.xml

AMETSOC

Abstract Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective...

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

personal update on what i'm thinkin.

unborn timber
limber mesa
#

I don't think "red flag warning" quite covers how severe the risk is

unborn timber
limber mesa
unborn timber
#

https://x.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1900209996102615241

My superstition is flarin HARD rn

I always check for a random fuck off tornado west of the Rockies a day or two before the "big event"

usually there's always a fuck off tornado like this one.

there is absolutely no scientific backing to this hunch but it's never done me wrong so i'm in caveman mode.

CONFIRMED EF0 tornado occurred in Pico Rivera, CA (just W of the 605 fwy & Whittier Blvd) between 3am and 4am today. Preliminary details: wind speed 85 mph, length 1 mile, width 80 yards, duration 2 minutes. Exterior damage to homes and cars, multiple snapped trees #cawx #larain

jagged niche
#

That’s way vague considering the context of weather

#

Earthquakes, a supercell, more tornadoes, hurricanes, there’s a lot of options

unborn timber
#

All hazards (significant wind gusts, large hail, and strong if not intense tornadoes. per the NWS's assessment of the event.)

#

We have not had such a widespread upper end severe weather event of this caliber for many years, (most of MS and AL under the gun here.)

jagged niche
#

Best of luck to those living over there

unborn timber
jagged niche
#

I’ll have to manage that tomorrow… dang. Hope everyone in that region stays safe

limber mesa
#

I'm in the Critical part, prarie goes up fast if and when it does

unborn timber
#

James Spann talking about Alabama's severe weather risk for Fri-Sat,

He is most known for his coverage during the 4/27/11 super outbreak for the area.

unborn timber
#

IN THE EVENT that tomorrow ends up being very upper level for a major town/ city,

Probably will make one post in #usa-canada alerting everyone, but will keep most of the talking in here, as it likely would be a national/worldwide news event at that instance.

Today's risks, w/ closer zooms of the southern and northern risk areas for towns included. Everything within that black outline (which is the same outline as the 15% for tornadoes.) is hatching- aka indicating that there is atleast a 10% chance that a strong tornado could occur within this area. (SPECIFICALLY- w/in 25 miles of any given point.)

If you want to poke around in Google Earth like I do, you can pull the kml files from the NWS website. If you need help w/ pulling todays/tomorrows/ any historical event post 2002, lmk.

limber mesa
#

the difference a day makes

unborn timber
#

Mainly more confidence in the event verifying, unfortunately.

#

Straight-line Wind driven MDT for today, somewhat luckily for you, still could be mighty dangerous (ex- tree falling on a house), but overall tornado threat is on par with most typical past events- just keep updated, and if somethin starts looking iffy near you, take shelter and you'll likely be alright

The concern w/ tomorrow is that we may get the strength where (given a strong/ violent tornado hits them,) most people will not be able to survive unless they are in a very well built home/structure, or underground.

limber mesa
#

I am actually underground, basement apartment

unborn timber
#

Good deal- looks like mostly for you it'll be more of a general hinderance for your area luckily, you might have tree damage near ya, hail damage is possible, if you get both overlapping at the same time (timing is weird for some of these forecasted storms.) - could have some windows knocked out easily

limber mesa
#

yeah the big threat is the wind

#

we're looking at possible 80mph gusts

unborn timber
#

@limber mesa YSK- that at that level, if people do start reporting wind gusts like 70+ MPH, you might have tornado sirens go off for that wind threat. Some people get caught off guard by that. Same principle though- take shelter, then you can check to see if it's tornadic or straight-line wind related.

limber mesa
#

yep, that's a thing that's happened before

#

I'll be at work, and I've been through this kind of thing before

#

it is wild for March though

unborn timber
#

It's unfortunately on par for Dixie, maybe a little early for the "big event", but it's Dixie season- I might be chasing in southern/ central KY, unsure how far north this event will try to fire tomorrow.

I can tell ya already i'm getting very little work done today.

unborn timber
#

there is one storm NE of Tulsa, OK that could spark a monumental wildfire, i can just about guantee you that many meterologists are watching that for the next few hours (until the severe weather threat up north.)

unborn timber
#

already gusting 70 MPH in some areas 👀

unborn timber
#

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

A significant severe weather outbreak is expected to begin today from the Midwest into the Southeast. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for today for the t...

▶ Play video
#

If you want the full details, hour long discussion.

unborn timber
#

Governor Kay Ivey has issued a state of emergency for all 67 counties ahead of this weekend’s severe weather.

Governor Ivey also issued the following comment:

“The state of Alabama is at risk for potentially dangerous, severe weather throughout this weekend, so it is critical

jagged niche
slow jasper
unborn timber
limber mesa
#

First wave is coming in now

#

60mph winds, nickel size hail possible

slow jasper
#

What i would give to be a storm chaser

unborn timber
#

STORM-NET 3 hour Tornado probs (think of this as "% of certanity" of a tornado occuring somewhere here)

#

1 HR run is a lot of "eh" rn, so we're lookin a bit longer term here

unborn timber
slow jasper
unborn timber
#

... This will try it's damnedest to be the first tornado of the day

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

PDS tornado watch issued.

unborn timber
# unborn timber "Radar confirmed tornado"

btw- this was a decently strong one, had debris up to 10k feet above ground level- atleast one report of entrapment in a "collapsed home"- no further details on that one, mostly rural pathing.

#

Still waiting to get damage pics outa the Duncan MO tornado.

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Many strong tornadoes so far today

#

Saint Louis under the gun.

#

TOR-E issued for Van Buren.

unborn timber
#

... Just woke up, last night was very strong in terms of tornadoes

#

The 2nd wave (3/15 at night) is expected to be higher in intensity.

unborn timber
#

the car was muddy before it left the road. (Likely thrown off road, rolled, then thrown back across road.)

unborn timber
mental lotus
#

As my power went out I thought, "better check the weather post on discord"

unborn timber
#

.....oh yeah historic day ahead likely

#

had a very notable if not a generational event last night

Still a few towns w/ no updates from em which is concerning

mystic wolf
unborn timber
#

It's in the area I grew up in, so i'm highly on edge

mystic wolf
#

I guess its one of those moment "im so thrilled, but also not..."

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

..... Very likely looking at a historic outbreak

jagged niche
#

That sandstorm managed to reach all the way here in DFW. I knew sand travels far but dang

unborn timber
#

Literally maxed out the Tornado threat for the watch

jagged niche
#

Was just boutta ping you and ask if you seen the TX sandstorm videos recently

unborn timber
jagged niche
#

Hope everyone survived

unborn timber
jagged niche
unborn timber
#

" numerous tornadoes are expected, including the potential for multiple intense to violent tornadoes (EF3-4+)"...

jagged niche
#

Well dang

unborn timber
#

1st time in my lifetime.

jagged niche
#

If everyone agrees “yo this shit gonna be SCARY”, it’s gonna be scary

#

And confirms that every single storm chaser with A N Y level of clout is gonna be there because of how rare this is

unborn timber
#

Hopin for this to bust out and do absolutely nothing

unborn timber
jagged niche
unborn timber
#

Up to 16 fatalities from last night, mix of tornadoes, flooding, wind events, and wildfire.

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Very strong tornado crossed the LA/MS state line, W of Tylertown, MS

#

Given a Tornado Emergency.

#

Salem, MS is likely to be hit by this one soon.

#

pink box is where Salem is

#

arrow one is still ongoing.

#

my path estimation of all 3.

#

Taylorsville in danger.

#

North of Bassfield, MS

#

Another strong one immediately.

unborn timber
#

Just the obvious tracks.

unborn timber
#

One of the tornadoes from last night, Prelim high end EF3.

#

Wow, look at the multi vortex structure on the Taylorsville, #Mississippi tornado seen here lofting debris & causing power flashes. #MSwx #severewx

📹: Max Loper (Facebook; link 🔗 below)

▶ Play video
severe kernel
unborn timber
#

probably the longer tracked one (left)

severe kernel
unborn timber
#

pro tip- do not shelter next to a carpenter/ logging/ whoever would deal with 2x4's shop 👀

unborn timber
#

very strong tornado either skimmed (or missed- hopefully) Gordo, AL.

#

closer zoom- timestamps are MM:SS in Zulu time.

unborn timber
#

Likely died out- Full pathing of the Gordo tornado-

(The more "?"- the less likely I am [using the data available] that the tornado is active at that time.)

unborn timber
#

@severe kernel gif showing both the tornadoes in that area- check that timestamp 😅

About 40 minutes apart- first one was still ongoing (was about to die out)

unborn timber
#

Tornado barely missing the Birmingham AL radar

unborn timber
#

Talladega, AL got a scare,

#

Very brief (but still probably strong) tornado juust NE of Winterboro, AL.

#

ohkay night time significants okay (NW of Montgomery.)

unborn timber
#

With recent convection evolution across S AL and the development of another confluence band ahead of the main band of convection, a favored region of discrete supercells is likely across S AL. A dangerous situation appears to be unfolding in this area.

▶ Play video
unborn timber
#

ASTONISHING data from this tornado in Alabama! It's just about perfectly between two radars!

KMXX in purple, KBMX in green.

Montgomery might have barely caught the first frame,

Tornado would have started sometime between 02:33:29 (wasn't seen in prior KBMX scan.) and** 02:34:23 **(first scan seen via KMXX

#

54 second window where this tornado could have started!

Unbelievable dataset!

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

..i wouldn't be against the event winding down right about now...

..i have a lot of data to sort through already 👉 👈

#

literally about 8 hours of data from 7 radars, so.... rough guess, upper limit of 54 hours worth of data.
Likely closer to like 25-30 because i wasn't pulling from all for the entire 8 hours

Prolly pulled from KDGX (Jackson, MS) for 6 hours straight there..

#

but all of the tornadoes I MANUALLY mapped today! (In order- all MS, NW AL, then the rest of AL.)

Red ones are a part of the overlap dataset!

(There's likely many I missed!)

#

i will finally slep. fifisalute

unborn timber
# unborn timber Today's outlook

If you would like to read from the start of the event (3/15/2025) go here.

1:46 AM update- my power just went out lmao that's a sign to sleep.

unborn timber
#

Local straight line wind damage from last night, probably 50-60 MPH gust

limber mesa
#

hoi

#

when is a branch just half the tree

unborn timber
#

Preliminary 190 MPH EF4 👀

#

"a well built home (read: UB) was completely destroyed (read: DOD8+) "

#

This is what likely got the preliminary 190 MPH EF4 rating...

unborn timber
#

inb4 downgraded to 170 MPH EF4 due to debris induced failure.

Tree got shotputted through their front foor.

unborn timber
#

Calera EF1 vs where NWS BMX's office is. (Birmingham)

They had to take shelter and a neighboring NWS office took over issuing warnings for a bit.

Passed about 2 miles to their east,

limber mesa
#

what

#

literally we are three days out and there's a Winter Storm Watch for the area

limber mesa
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

There is apparently a missing small aircraft at the house w/ a prelim 190 MPH rating.

#

0:15 "The owner had a.. plane actually right there just for his hobby... all of that is gone aswell"

1:04 "He said the plane that he had- so this was kinda the runway... they haven't been able to find the plane so..."

#

gonna* horrific typo before forwarding. :C

#

Something weird happened at this property, (presumed) missing plane, one of the cleanest rootballings i've ever seen, and the upper level vehicle damage that isn't quite pulping the darn thing.

unborn timber
#

What the plane looked like prior

unborn timber
mystic wolf
#

I think I will stay at Home.

limber mesa
unborn timber
#

There's been another stormchaser death today, unknown cause of death- medical related.

#

He was chasing a few days ago too, complete shock to the field atm, young kid, I think early/mid 20's.

limber mesa
#

some possible thundersnow? that would be wild

unborn timber
#

Non-zero chance this is my last post in here (for atleast a while.)

Long story, heading north. Will likely be off the grid for a week+, hopefully not longer than a month.

Edit: plans on hold for a lil bit 🙃

limber mesa
#

Snowfall rate just got measured at 2.3in/hr here

unborn timber
unborn timber
limber mesa
#

map from wikipedia editor wxtrackercody of the tornado outbreak last week

#

112 tornadoes confirmed

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Rolling Fork was hit by an EF4 on March 24th, 2023 btw.

Just about the 2 year anniversary.

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Pretty rare Washington/Oregon tornado risk,

I think the first time they've had a 5%

unborn timber
#

(Ignore the graphic breaking- no satellite coverage of the ocean from this specific one the NWS uses for this one.)

but 80% likely to have a (likely TSTM) watch issued

unborn timber
tacit geode
# unborn timber https://fxtwitter.com/BNONews/status/1904632750897869126

Just had a fascinating conversation with a Korean reporter. The area that burned was intensively logged by the Japanese in the 30s and 40s. It has since regrown into dense even aged stands of conifers. Super dense stands that are impossible to walk through. There is no logging.

Michael Wara (@michaelwara.bsky.social)
Just got my first outreach from a reporter from South Korea to talk about the fires that are happening there. What strikes me about them is that this may be a preview into what will happen in the northeastern US as climate warms. And there is a lot of knowledge to apply from places like CA.

tacit geode
leaden mountain
#

Usually we go for a separate thread if there is a large number of posts, especially when in a short time, and they are drowning out other conversations.

unborn timber
#

The aftermath/ political side of things (given that this country was in an open state of public unrest not that long ago) will probably need one when we get there.

#

The rates of ground liquefaction* were probably insane given how close the epicenter was

leaden mountain
#

There are also some posts in #asia-pacific

unborn timber
#

Being safe because it's not impossible a fatality could have occurred here. (Particularly from the unlucky few directly under the thing before it started spreading, they likely got the full brunt of it to their upper body forcing them down into the pavement.)

vast dune
#

For the earthquake 👉 #1355158595800404221

unborn timber
#

Looking at a very active week in terms of severe weather.
(D1, D2)

#

D4, D5

(D3 is a bit eh imo, but some people are lookin at it at bein a sleeper event.)

unborn timber
#

if i had a nickel for every time i was woken up from a nap today by an earthquake near Tonga, i'd have two nickels, which isn't a lot but i should really change the default alert noises in GlobalQuake

Everything above a M5.0 blares a massive siren w/ default noises. These occurred 3 hours apart, not that many people felt it, small tsunami warning. (That i think may already be cancelled.)

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Newly available high-resolution satellite imagery collected by Maxar reveals sections of the surface rupture near the zone of maximum surface displacement of last week’s Mw 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar. Rupture is ~500 km long, with up to 5 meters of fault slip.

💬 2 🔁 93 ❤️ 264 👁️ 10.5K

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

Strong tornado near Old Mines, Missouri

#

Likely lifted- most of it's lifespan was over pure rural areas, a few structures may have been hit, today's likely going to be a long day.

#

eta 30-60 minutes and western TN is likely going to be very chaotic.

unborn timber
unborn timber
#

A tornado may have hit southern Greenville, IL. On route for Smithboro, IL.

unborn timber
#

All tornado warnings currently

#

Likely strong tornado on route to the Harrisburg, AR area.

#

Likely intense tornado near Mcgee, MO.

unborn timber
#

Bay, AR.

#

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Very violent tornado ongoing

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Tornado Emergency issued for Lake City, AR, Monette, AR, etc.

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Likely hit 35.83383208843391, -90.4631669594216 (Delta Farms, NW of Lake City, AR.)

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This will be close to Monette, AR.

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Looks like most of Monette missed- may have skimmed the northern side of town.

unborn timber
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horizontal vortex! This one was insanely violent!

unborn timber
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Indianapolis tornado marked as confirmed

mental lotus
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Acedog I wanted to let you know that I check this thread more often than I check the weather broadcast.

unborn timber
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Paducah's in trouble.

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Due to how close it is to the radar (and NWS office) it is insanely hard to see.

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but it's tracking directly over the office soon if not now

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
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Likely a very brief tornado in extreme north east Indianapolis, near Carmel. (Likely very weak.)

mental lotus
unborn timber
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(Not all have moved to Bluesky yet i think 👉 👈 there's a lot of em)

unborn timber
mental lotus
unborn timber
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imo the event should slowly start winding down now if I remember right. 🤞

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Very hectic day, likely had a couple of strong if not violent tornadoes (primarily over AR, who cannot catch a break lately.)

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....southern Arkansas.... stop it.

unborn timber
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This is very likely one of the strongest tornadoes we've seen in recent history.

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..please can this event stop.

NW of Palmersville, TN, heading into KY.

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#1's lifting, it's cycling to the east (red square is just to the west of the couplet+ new inflow channel for the top two squares), puts Bell City KY at risk.

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Welp- Big time tornado likely just missed Bell City, KY.

Just went PDS.

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Likely lifted juuust before it got to Murray, KY, might have some light debris fallout in the SW side of town (branches, etc.)

mental lotus
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I don't know that my area is going to be out of tornado watch/warning action until 1 am Eastern WIMDY

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
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red- 1(+?) injured, rescued. Unknown on fatalities/ additional injuries.

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But I'd wager that a lot of this relatively higher end damage is debris induced, using debris from the mechanics to the W side of the road.

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i will now lie down, i will prolly be back if there's another strong nado or something but ahhhhhhhg i've been staring at radars for 10 hours.

unborn timber
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... Likely had a decently strong tornado just start doing damage as it left the main Louisville KY area.

unborn timber
slow jasper
unborn timber
jagged niche
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@unborn timber didn’t you mention how “this year looks like it’ll be a 2011 repeat”?

jagged niche
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Typed “mention” using the noun definition (in reference to someone or something), but even then, I hope nothing like Joplin happens again

unborn timber
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Just for comparison btw- despite how big yesterday's event was, in terms of (specifically) tornado warnings, does not hold a candle to peak 2011.

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it was certainly UP THERE, but yeah, fair difference

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Remember my crackpot theory of "if a random tornado occurs W of the Rockies, the upcoming event will be notable" sorta idea?

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There was a brief EF0 in California the day prior.

I do feel like there's a tie here,

jagged niche
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We are early in the season though?

unborn timber
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It is weird how AR specifically has been getting hammered over and over, tomorrow may go HIGH aswell... over AR.

unborn timber
unborn timber
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today's tornado risk.

unborn timber
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Strong/ violent tornado in TX, near Grand Saline

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  • Clarksville, TX
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PDS'ed for Clarksville

unborn timber
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very small watch (3 counties.), 50/30 tornado probs

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This is the prelude to today's main event, primarily over AR when these storms track over that way.

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Idabel, OK under a PDS tornado warning- likely precautionary. Pure radar hole.

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current watches.

unborn timber
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This area was likely hit,

unborn timber
unborn timber
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PDS tornado warning in MS, near New Albany.

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structures very likely hit, going into New Albany, MS

unborn timber
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Likely lifted just prior to the majorly populated area, far rural outskirts were likely hit however.

unborn timber
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I am unsure how well this would work.

limber mesa
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I mean, possibly. Looks like they're not putting dirt on the roof, which would have ended their plans quickly

blazing flame
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likely to have a negative climate effect if it goes into effect #1330709161385922650 message

unborn timber
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...buuut if anything landed on the vehicle... it would likely be fatal.

limber mesa
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I agree with that consensus

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I sure wouldn't wanna be the one to test it as a tornado is coming

unborn timber
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dome shaped homes though- would recommend.

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looks ugly- but wind glances off it more often than a traditional house- this one survived a direct strike from an EF4 tornado, estimated at 200 MPH

(2011 Chickasha–Blanchard tornado)

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Family survived inside- initially unaware of the tornado until it hit them

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For comparison... nearby- rated 190 MPH.

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This is actually one of the tornados that's lead to the push of lowering the EF5 threshold from 201+ MPH to 190+ MPH.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-24-0066.1/BAMS-D-24-0066.1.xml

AMETSOC

Abstract As of January 2025, the United States has gone over 11 years without the occurrence of a tornado rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, constituting the longest “drought” in F5/EF5-rated tornadoes since the beginning of official records (1950). This article places the “drought” of 5-rated tornadoes in the context of a long...

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Yes it is weird to see people I know (and have occasionally talked to) on Twitter listed w/in this paper.

unborn timber
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Well I missed this one! That was a strong one too!

limber mesa
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I cannot tell you how much that storm missed Omaha

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it's like the damn thing chose to go around

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not a lot of rain, but big wind and hail

unborn timber
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The event was just two cells, but oh boy did they speen.

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Like 2 PDS warnings and 1 TOR-E (Tornado Emergency)

limber mesa
unborn timber
unborn timber
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What I would give to be next to this beauty.

(Don't tell my fiancee I said that.)

unborn timber
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What in the absolute fuck

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That's a nado

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... That's a STRONG tornado what in the absolute fuck was this cell development

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20 minute difference. If I was chasing that woulda likely hit and killed me,

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That was likely a very strong one. Baffled on what the fuck happened with that bubbler.

unborn timber
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Low Precipitation tornado

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Near invisible on radar due to very low rates of rain, only visible because it's picking up debris

unborn timber
unborn timber
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Likely a VERY significant tornado NE of Cool, TX.

unborn timber
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Straight-line wind gusts up to 100 MPH for central TX, ouch.

unborn timber
unborn timber
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Illinois pulls the QLCS lottery

unborn timber
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Very early start for AR this year!

blazing flame
unborn timber
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Update- nothing happened really, storm passed over, area's now in a flash flooding warning because of trailing storms

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But someone did get this image

unborn timber
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l a r g e hail, Apple size on some of these.

unborn timber
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Approaching Matador, TX.

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Tornado confirmed on this one.

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PDS issued for this one, strong. Matador was hit not too long ago by a fairly strong one too,

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Oklahoma,

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The Freedom, OK tornado is likely active.

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This is a very strong one!

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The NWS is watching these specific cells enough to where they've slightly upped the day's tornado probs specifically for them.

(Each image is a different forecast issued today.)

limber mesa
unborn timber
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Miami, TX at risk.

unborn timber
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A friend called this in to me- reported that the clouds were "very slightly rotating"

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I'm gonna mark this as OH and PA's first supercell of the year, 🥳

unborn timber
unborn timber
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Monday might be interesting

limber mesa
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that is a large lad

unborn timber
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You know my standard superstition, if a random tornado occurs W of the Rockies tonight/ tomorrow- I'd pay close attention to Monday's event.

jagged niche
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Thx for the heads up 🙂

unborn timber
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In my studies, the day before a notable tornado outbreak typically has a brief tornado in one of those states

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There's absolutely nothing concrete about that hypothesis, but hey, 25% of meteorology is the same way.

(We are still a relatively new field of science.)

jagged niche
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“25% of meteorology is the same way” hence why I’m not questioning your judgement

unborn timber
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The day before a very notable outbreak (I believe last year) Alaska had their first tornado in decades, which really sparked my interest in exploring this pattern

jagged niche
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You mentioned this to any meteorology groups, or is this a personal thing?

unborn timber
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Still starchly in the "internal data collection and peer review" sorta stage before we even dare to ask the NWS about it- because 60-80% of us are hobbyists, most without degrees (me included.) also not a good time to try and get in contact with them.

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It is very funny how this field is very OSINT coded, there's a good chunk of data that is sourced from the public, and the data is open to the public in return. (This is probably why i've fallen perfectly inline w/ this server, primarily due to my geolocation background for tracking tornado damage.)

A rare example of a government operated OSINT-type operation working extremely well

jagged niche
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Hype

unborn timber
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ARX (La Crosse, WI)'s forecast discussion

limber mesa
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I'm a smidgen outside the confirmation zone so I'll see what happens

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
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The storm system should probably be linear by the time it gets to Minneapolis, which in theory would kneecap hail+ strong tornado odds (but will increase weaker spinup odds),

may transition into more of a damaging straight-line wind event.

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If the storms remain discrete, it would be a major issue for the entirety of central/ SE MN. (along w/ IA and a bit of WI.)

unborn timber
unborn timber
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Train derailed on this one.

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Outlining each hook echo, second storm to the east is gonna try

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Chasers calling that western one "easily a mile wide"

unborn timber
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The other storm however has also produced a tornado that is ongoing (population of about 0 people in its current path.)

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The third storm's starting to hook out,

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This one might try to produce a few more

unborn timber
jagged niche
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Not too well versed in reading radar but I spot a danger noodle

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Fr tho, that’s… concerning

jagged niche
limber mesa
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using the Doppler effect

unborn timber
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Gonna try and get some sleep, keeping an eye on the Midwest for like 4-9 PM

jagged niche
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Sleep well

unborn timber
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Mainly got my eyes on around 6 PM for Minneapolis,

There's still notable ways that tomorrow could fail to do much, but if the conditions align, could be a notable day for a few states.

limber mesa
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I'm in the "could miss us" zone so I'll have eyes on it

unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
jagged niche
unborn timber
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bad Oklahoma, bad.

(Upped from 5% to 10%# [# indicates atleast a 10% chance of a strong tornado])

unborn timber
# jagged niche So expect shenanigans east of the Rockies?

shrug , we're officially in the "we will see where the chips lie" time of forecasting (We typically call it "nowcasting", we are real creative.) , where relying on models is.. not helpful, as the time it takes to create those runs- we'll have live data to use anyways.

limber mesa
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where I am, there's an 85%-60% chance of a miss, but it's a narrow one
maybe I'll spot it as it flies by

unborn timber
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Forecast discussion- tried to highlight segments that aren't too jargany and state what they're seeing in as plain of text as possible, but worth a read if you're in the area,

tl;dr- this is a very tough event to forecast, NWS is still not fully confident in it, but also have enough confidence to warrant concern. Weird spot to be in.

unborn timber
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tl;dr- Conditions do seem to be lining up, but if storms just never fire, there's no risk. We're waiting on that (and wont get that answer for hours)

jagged niche
unborn timber
unborn timber
jagged niche
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That makes more sense now

limber mesa
unborn timber
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SW Minnesota

unborn timber
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.... It might completely miss Minneapolis

unborn timber
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The bullet was on the table, and then we tried to load it into a nerf gun, amazing last second downtrend for the northern sector.

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The storms split and missed Minneapolis, segment to the south did have a few gustnadoes, but overall, system has gone more linear

unborn timber
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discussion I had in a different server i'm cross posting here to save time.

unborn timber
unborn timber
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The # of very upset storm chasers in MN/ IA is... notable. I would avoid the roads for a moment if you're up there (let them clear out)

Partially joking, partially not, a lot of heated sleep deprived tension among certain "teams"

limber mesa
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[insert prayer to Omahadome here]

unborn timber
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Likely a quick spin up tornado occurred SE of Eau Claire.

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Likely a strong tornado from that same storm segment, E of Augusta, WI.

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CC is fading somewhat- might have been a real quick tree muncher.

unborn timber
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Tornado hit Springfield, MO

Edit-
Seems like a decent (but weak) tornado, downed powerlines and trees, roofing damage reported.

unborn timber
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(Moved a discussion as it is part of an internal investigation w/in the weather community.)

unborn timber
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Parts of costal Chile being evacuated after a M7. 5 quake at sea, possible tsunami of 1-3 meters.

unborn timber
limber mesa
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Kentucky doesn't get tornadoes like we do in the plains, but frequent enough EF-1s that having no one in charge of the entire state of weather there is deeply concerning

unborn timber
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Several of the strongest tornados in recent history are in that rough area (Central/Northern MS into Western TN into Western KY)

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The CM for the Paducah, KY office retired in February, I believe the hiring freeze is what's prevented a new one from getting in.

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... Also as a side note- tornado in Poland yesterday, we had a new guy show up in a storm chasing group asking if he caught something, we're of the opinion he did- he's sending it to the equivalent of the NWS there.

limber mesa
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I knew it was someone outside the US when I saw "landspout"

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probably a literal translation of a local word

unborn timber
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Landspouts are unfortunately an American creation to describe tornadoes that dont occur under storms (or to partially explain ones that don't form in a typical way)

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But given the info that was given, leaning towards this being a bog standard tornado (Probably an extremely weak tornado, but a nado. Also as a note- landspouts are not necessarily wispy nothingburgers- max recorded that I know of was a High end EF1, which is like.. decent.)

limber mesa
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fair enough

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but like you said, notable

unborn timber
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Decently strong quake in TX,

limber mesa
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I'll admit, I didn't know that was a thing that could happen

jagged niche
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Ok wtf that’s too strong for fracking

limber mesa
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5.7 is significant yeah

unborn timber