Novaya Zemlya

[reef chasm]

OK, first - thank you so much Bellingcat for taking my suggestion of looking at the Burevestnik launch facilities in Pankovo, Novaya Zemlya in #satellite-tasking-suggestions !!

I'm going to be looking at this imagery for a while - but here are my initial impressions.

This is the launch pad itself - with the environmental shelter clearly visible over the launch mount in the Planet imagery, Compare it with how the pad looks when a test is not imminent.
(the other image is from https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov)

This increase in activity is consistent with NOTAMs, notices to mariners and vessel activity observed at the site.

Further south we see the missile checkout facilities, as previously identified by Jeffrey Lewis and Michael Duitsman: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1210186/burevestnik-testing-to-resume/

Of note, we can see a helicopter on one of the landing pads, in addition to a new building under construction.

I'll add more to this thread.

(edit: sorry, I realise I didn't link to the relevant page on Bellingcat - https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2023/09/25/we-tasked-a-satellite-based-on-your-suggestions-here-are-the-results/)

[austere musk]

Wow, the images turned out great! Very little cloud cover!

[reef chasm]

Here is a map of the current NOTAM & PRIP in place - and how they relate to the Burevestnik facilities at Pankovo.

[reef chasm]

Beyond the NOTAMs, increased aircraft activity has been noted at Rogachevo Air Base, in the south of Novaya Zemlya. Here's some imagery I purchased myself.

The two IL-76's with blue upper fuselages are notable (ok technically they may be a Be/il-976 variant... ) as they are likely related to Rosatom activities, including telemetry collection: https://twitter.com/Missilito/status/977092229398396928
https://www.stocktrekimages.com/ank101201m-A-Russian-IL-976-SKIP-surveillance-aircraft-taking.html

You can also see an A-50 on the apron at Rogachevo. Whether this is good use of sparse AWACs capabilities, I guess that's for the Russian MoD to decide.

Missilito (@Missilito)

PHOTO: Rosatom Il-976 «SKIP» telemetry collection aircraft with registration 76452 seen at Arkhangelsk in Mid-March
(c) Fedor Bezenchuk

Twitter · Mar 23, 2018, 7:58 AM

A few days back, I noted an aircraft visible in Sentinel 2 imagery, within the NOTAM warning area. So I suspect it's presence is related to the telemetry collection/airspace monitoring effort.

I'm going to go back and review the new satellite imagery provided by Bellingcat & Planet, but here's a little thank you of my own.

It was previously reported by CSIS (https://www.csis.org/analysis/ice-curtain-s-400-deployments-and-enhanced-defense-russias-western-arctic-rogachevo-air) that there was a S400 battery active, just west of Rogachevo Air Base on Novaya Zemlya.

I keep an eye on Rogachevo and I noted from Sentinel 2 imagery that the location of the S400 battery seemed to empty out since last summer - but I couldn't be sure at ~10m resolution.

That's ultimately why I ordered the imagery from SkyFi - and I just got lucky catching the aircraft at Rogachevo.

Anyway - you can see the S400 unit is no longer at this site.

Also to add - the Burevestnik program is not the only concerning thing currently happening on Novaya Zemlya:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/22/asia/nuclear-testing-china-russia-us-exclusive-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1218750/nuclear-test-sites-are-too-damn-busy/

[reef chasm]

Rough comparison of the empty pad versus Bellingcat's imagery.

It would be great to get a geotiff as this is potentially quite an interesting trailer if we knew the dimensions.

[olive vapor]

Are they using standard building blocks? Like prefab or sea containers?

[austere musk]

https://vxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1706286618993119379

[reef chasm]

Re: shipping containers... stand by... I've invited someone to join who researched the subject and can add more.

[olive coyote]

Hi folks. The shipping containers photographed in the accident bore the four-letter identifier "LCLU." This is a Moscow-based company called "Container Leasing." I will pull up some screenshots, but they used to advertise mobile laboratory construction on their website, and in promo materials used containers with blue paint of a similar shade. https://www.bic-code.org/bic-codes/lclu/.

https://www.contlease.ru/en/

[reef chasm]

@olive coyote thank you! 🙂

[half dagger]

Very interesting @olive coyote

[reef chasm]

This is the video that showed close ups of the containers at Nyonoksa after the accident:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AEMTVJwlZo

Also, just to say it's great to see @olive coyote and @half dagger both here.

[olive coyote]

Wayback machine has shots of the site btw. Here are some slides I put together back in 2019. I'm am amateur at using Rosstat, so don't take those graphics too seriously.

[reef chasm]

Now, what is this....

[austere musk]

Wow, it's really cool to see so much interest in these images!

[reef chasm]

For context

[austere musk]

See also the orange box slightly northwest of this, along the circular tire tracks.

And another one further southwest along the relatively large tire tracks.

[austere musk]

Can't make good screenshots right now, therefore the improvised arrows.

[reef chasm]

Guess this golfball contains their satellite uplink

The tracks north east emanate from a collection of containers (unfortunately obscured by cloud) that are located approximately 1.5km south of the launch pad.

I've wondered if this is where launch operations are commanded/monitored from.

[reef chasm]

A guess, but those orange boxes etc. might be related to data/image collection immediately post launch?

[austere musk]

I think there are a few more.

Bottom right corner, they form a line.

If you count the box on the structure in the middle.

[brazen cobalt]

Love this , so glad it's useful!

[reef chasm]

A view of the pad area before the site was redeveloped to host Burevestnik tests - this image and more is available in the Google Earth photo layer, taken by Anton Shalin. Also includes some of better shots available of Severny.

(You can work out the alignment if you look at the mound & tanks visible in the Bellingcat image)

[reef chasm]

Just going to share this here - we don't know where it's going beyond.. it's saying Novaya Zemlya.

It's one of Rosatom's nuclear fuel carriers, so this is worth keeping an eye on.

[reef chasm]

We are at ~12 hours since an AIS position report was last received from the nuclear fuel carrier Rossita.

It could still be in the same location, but it's a long time without a signal, so we don't know.

[reef chasm]

Still no AIS report from Rossita since Sep 27, 2023 07:48 UTC.

However there was a vessel visible on Sentinel 2 today, approximately ~40km NNW of where the Rossita was last reported to be - it was travelling NNW and there was no other corresponding AIS signal at the time.

Unfortunately, I can't be sure it's Rossita or not. If it is - it's interesting that the vessel is operating without AIS enabled and continuing further north in Novaya Zemlya.

One vessel that is on AIS and at Novaya Zemlya right now, is the Dzhamrat... destination:

MATOCHKIN SHAR:)

The smiley face is theirs!

[reef chasm]

Rossita reappeared on AIS early this morning, in Matochkin Shar.

It subsequently docked at the nuclear test site.

[reef chasm]

H/T to @half dagger for flagging this:
https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1707716208622018926
https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1707716378243809284

Elena Chernenko (@ElenaChernenko)

This space is worth watching. RIA: Mikhail Kovalchuk, President of Kurchatov Institute National Research Center, called for an adjustment of the foundations of the state policy of Russia on nuclear deterrence in order to prevent the West from increasing degree of escalation. 1\4

Twitter · Sep 29, 2023, 11:17 AM

Elena Chernenko (@ElenaChernenko)

"Now exactly the same situation. It is enough to conduct tests on Novaya Zemlya... At least once. And everything will fall into place," Kovalchuk added. 4\4

Twitter · Sep 29, 2023, 11:18 AM

[reef chasm]

For anyone wondering about Rossita, according to AIS it docked at the nuclear test site in Matochkin Shar around 05:22 UTC on the 29th of September and left around 12:04 UTC the same day. It stayed in the mouth of MS from around 14:00 UTC on the 29th to around 03:00 UTC on the 30th, when it departed south.

[reef chasm]

Away from nukes and nuclear powered cruise missiles, in recent days we've seen the M/V Yauza, a cable laying vessel depart Matochkin Shar and proceed at low speed (1.5-2.5kts) NNW - I've overlaid these movements (the red triangles) with activity monitored during the summer of 2022.

[austere musk]

Really great presentation, a very beautiful map! You've come really far with your QGIS skills.

I absolutely love the colour scheme btw.

[reef chasm]

Thanks! While the cable laying may not seem super interesting compared with the other stuff going on up there, it seems consistent with the investment in facilities at the nuclear test site being reported by the likes of Jeffrey Lewis.

While most of the cable laying activity had been flagged, last year I noticed M/V Yauza going back and forth between two locations on Sentinel 1/2, I couldn't work out why, until I eventually plotted the notices to mariners on a map.

[reef chasm]

Russia May Be Planning to Test a Nuclear-Powered Missile
Visual evidence from a remote base in the Arctic shows launch preparations mirroring those that preceded earlier tests. (NYT article)
https://archive.ph/zDREY

Disappointed @half dagger didn't get a shout out to be honest. Thord has consistently been the best source for monitoring NOTAMs and PRIPs, among other aspects of the Burevestnik program for a number of years.

Glad to see our ID'ing of the Rosatom Il-76s in Rogachevo was correct, as was our impression of launch preparations, NOTAMs, moving environmental shelter etc.

[reef chasm]

https://twitter.com/riley_mellen/status/1708883340537876905
That's something anyway

Riley Mellen (@riley_mellen)

Second, Russia published a series of airspace warnings near Novaya Zemlya throughout September. Last week, they extended one to run through Oct 6. (the picture looks slightly different from @The_Lookout_N's map now, but this is a good viz of early Sept.) https://t.co/ENn96m7sRV

Twitter · Oct 2, 2023, 4:35 PM

If the NYT is reading, I have two other places they could look at 🤪

[austere hemlock]

so does the actual specific propulsion mechaniism remain unclear to date?

[olive vapor]

Ping Aric. 😛

[reef chasm]

It's unclear, but there are hints out there about how it might operate.

I am going to leave that to @olive coyote to field, if they want to add something.

On a personal note, monitoring Burevestnik activity was something I got into because of Jeffrey Lewis & Michael Duitsman's article: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1210186/burevestnik-testing-to-resume/

It was COVID lockdown times, I was bored/going nuts and I wondered if I could replicate anything that they had done using free open source methods. I learned about the Sentinel satellites and was able to detect the vessel movements once they started in 2021 - around that time I got chatting to @half dagger who has been a massive help ever since with monitoring relevant NOTAMs and PRIPS.

That grew into a fascination with Novaya Zemlya itself and military related activity in the Arctic region in general. It's been kind of wild seeing developments happening at the nuclear test site and a few months later seeing news items about it on CNN etc.

I do this as a semi-anonymous weirdo though with no intelligence analysis training whatsoever, and really we need the public to be aware of what's going on so... yeah, it's good to see it reported.

TL;DR If I spot something I think is odd/suggestive of certain activity, I'd much rather a subject matter expert actually confirm it and report it, than me. There's more than enough bad OSINT out there already.

[raven depot]

The fact you're cautious about not conducting bad OSINT makes you much better than any bad OSINT out there

[half dagger]

Without my conversations with @reef chasm , I would have lost track of Novaya Zemlya activity due to the war and the fact that I try to cover way too many topics at once.

Looking at a place like Novaya Zemlya, we don't get that many clues to go by.

[austere musk]

Púca is the Novaya Zemlya god.

[reef chasm]

The two other sites, if the NYT or whoever, wants to take a look and examine in more detail:

Nyonoksa/Nenoksa (64.646N, 39.192E)
Kapustin-Yar (48.648N, 45.984E)

I've been keeping an eye on both of these locations over recent months - if the first place rings a bell - it's because that's where an accident that killed five Russian nuclear scientists happened in 2019: https://twitter.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1162112988603535360

I really thought the Burevestnik facilities at Nyonoksa would be abandoned, but less than 2km from the pad, three huge structures have been built in the last few months.

Caveat: these could be indoor football pitches for all I know, but maybe someone could take a look and find out more.

The Burevestnik facility at Kapustin-Yar saw changes last year as noted by Evgeniy Maksimov (https://twitter.com/PararamTadam/status/1585359644754841600) and sure enough, from looking at it myself this year with Sentinel 2, it looks like there are additional changes in recent months with a new paved area and perhaps a cable run. So it too might be worth taking a look at with high def satellite imagery.

Just to emphasize as well that Evgeniy Maksimov (https://twitter.com/PararamTadam) is someone else who has posted interesting Burevestnik related activity on Twitter over the years - I don't think I'd have known where to find the Kapustin-Yar pad without his posts.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk)

So, we're now trying to understand precisely what the Russians were working on at Nenoksa and what went wrong. We can, at least, confirm the outlines of the Russian account -- after an engine test, there was an explosion and fire on a barge that killed five nuclear scientists.

Likes

203

Retweets

111

Twitter · Aug 15, 2019, 9:25 PM

Evgeniy Maksimov (@PararamTadam)

The VNIIEF site in KapYar for testing the Burevestnik nuclear missile/KY30/SSC-X-9 "Skyfall" has been upgraded. First image at 09/2021, second - 03/2022.

Twitter · Oct 26, 2022, 7:56 PM

Evgeniy Maksimov (@PararamTadam)

Followers

1811

Tweets

661

Twitter

[reef chasm]

Back to Novaya Zemlya and tying in with the recent reports about the site being too damned busy...

In Google Earth we can see that back in October 2021, an unused test tunnel >20km south of the port was undergoing extensive work.

The tunnel is at 73.240182N 55.135218E.

Numerous vehicles, trailers etc. were all visible along the road to the tunnel.

I only know the tunnel was/is unused due to this great presentation from Anne Pellegrino and Jeffrey Lewis:
https://view.ceros.com/miis-edu/nuclear-threat-initiative-novayazemlya-2/p/1

In this presentation we can also see that another unused tunnel, in the D-11 area, was refurbished during 2016.

Doing anything in Novaya Zemlya, in October, is not easy - let alone at a site 20km south of the port facilities in Matochkin Shar. So there's some kind of rationale, even if it's just maintaining/restoring specific tunnels so they can be utilised for tests in the event that an order ever comes through.

The Barents Observer recently speculated that the Rossita's recent visit might be related to transporting nuclear waste to Novaya Zemlya for storage - so could tunnels figure into that strategy? Does it make any sense to store waste next/near to facilities that could be used for nuclear tests? 🤷
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/nuclear-safety/2023/09/nuclear-waste-ship-makes-port-call-novaya-zemlya

[austere hemlock]

Does it make any sense to store waste next/near to facilities that could be used for nuclear tests?

Well clearly yes, because this entire project seems quite risky in terms of failed tests. Then the resulting destroyed materials may need to be handled with great care, and disposed of. And probably as secretly as possible (to prevent wider world from ever seeing them, for example not to transport them over to other RosAtom nuclear facilities for further decommission processing).

[sleek terrace]

jake had a look today

https://www.flightradar24.com/JAKE31/3247d6bd

[reef chasm]

This building in Sarov, home of VNIIEF, is my best guess on the production(?) facility shown by Russia in ~2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B9j0SzTRCY

But I'm far from certain, there are some (significant) aspects I can't match properly.

[urban oasis]

I think you may be right! I very crudely tried to measure the width of the building based on the average male height in Russia of 175. Granted this is a crude estimation but I ended up with an internal width of about 19m, which is reasonably close to what it measures as on Google Earth. What aspects aren't matching for you?

[reef chasm]

A: Thank you so much for checking! I really appreciate the help.

B: I can't find an image that clearly depicts windows on the west side (the tall ones above the ground floor) - I can see hints of where windows may have been, but it's not clear they're still there - at least not as clearly as they are on the east.

Also the sections of the video toward the end with windows on the ground floor - I can't match their layout on any of the satellite imagery.

C: This has frustrated the hell out of me - the number of windows (the big ones) seems to match, the greyed out/bricked over windows seem to match where the building extends to the west, it even matches where the doors are.

But I can't match it all.

[astral crane]

Theoretically yes it could make some sense though not sure about in this specific case. Some of our sites here in the US used/use tunnels for limited waste storage.

This is where we get into a really tricky area though because there is 100% DISO programs running around this, and all the data we're looking at would be the exact channels used to present the content for them. Trying to assess more there can get risky.

[reef chasm]

https://twitter.com/NilsenThomas/status/1709824393478619596
A nuke sniffing WC-135R has arrived in the UK.

Just to caution everyone - while I've tracked their movements closely for weeks in expectation of this - we can't know why it has arrived. This could be part of a training exercise, they could be conducting background checks, getting baseline data in case they are ever required to do an operational mission at some point in the future.

Thanks to Thord for flagging.

Thomas Nilsen (@NilsenThomas)

#Burevestnik update: Rosatom's radiation data collection aircraft (Be-976) are on standby at Rogachevo air field (Novaya Zemlya), while the U.S. WC-135W Constant Phoenix atmospheric collection plane is arriving to the European theatre. Putin's birthday is Saturday, Oct. 7.

Twitter · Oct 5, 2023, 6:54 AM

[reef chasm]

The WC-135R that landed in the UK this morning is airborne again.

[austere hemlock]

There was a couple of interesting comments left on that 3 year old youtube video... 1 guy predicted Putin would invade Ukraine, and another guy explained how the physics for the speed for heat transfer (into air) does not really add up.

[austere hemlock]

And may I also say (and this is not any speculation). That at 11 seconds into the video, it is clearly visible multiple rounds of dark materials ejected into the thrust exhaust plume. That are of signifiant shape / size. And this is (you can read on wikipedia) all about those matters in other such projects.

And shortly after those multiple ejections at 11s mark timestamp. Then the video is (soon after) hard cut.

[sleek terrace]

people in another discord were talking about a redeployment to Al Udeid Air Base.

[reef chasm]

Could be. All we can do is wait and see 👍

[reef chasm]

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1709959168151494849

Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N)

My official comment on the statement by Putin on successful Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile tests:

I don't know what to make of it yet. There are a lot of questions and unknowns.

https://t.co/jRwG9l3q7O

Twitter · Oct 5, 2023, 3:50 PM

[astral crane]

Do we have any snippets of the actual speech?

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/10/05/putin-zaiavil-ob-uspeshnom-ispytanii-rakety-s-iadernoi-energeticheskoi-ustanovkoi-burevestnik-news
This contains a video snippet of the speech

Also references another mention of Burevestnik there from Pskov "“No, I can’t [comment]. I don't know where the New York Times journalists got this from. Apparently, they need to study satellite images in more detail,” Peskov said."

[regal holly]

https://x.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1709964996875104383?s=46

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk)

Putin confirmed the test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile that @dbmee, @bellingcat, @nytimes and others saw in @planet imagery. He claims it was successful. https://t.co/Cf399extBp

Twitter · Oct 5, 2023, 4:13 PM

https://x.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1709965919512842450?s=46

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk)

Not great.
https://t.co/VGVBwgVDIg

Twitter · Oct 5, 2023, 4:16 PM

[olive coyote]

Re: reactor design. So I don't want to comment in too much detail before I have better results to share publicly, but yes, there are plenty of fuel forms and reactor layouts that can work for this application. I suspect the engine is a nuclear turbojet, though it's possible it's a ramjet.

[reef chasm]

The Barents Observer flagged the 2021 tunnel works I mentioned above in their article of 07 October:
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2023/10/no-signs-any-immediate-nuclear-tests-novaya-zemlya

Folks with money to spend on historical imagery: it might be worth investigating possible links between vessels visiting the port in Matochkin Shar and the tracks visible at the subcritical test facility tunnels.

[austere musk]

If anyone has further questions about this btw, the @dbmee mentioned in this tweet is our resident Novaya Zemlya genius @reef chasm.

[raven depot]

https://bsky.app/profile/thelookout.bsky.social/post/3kbdgvuylmp2e

[reef chasm]

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1218802/shenanigans-in-novaya-zemlya/

[austere musk]

I'm going to sue him for copyright infringement!
#chit-chat message

[reef chasm]

One thing I haven't said already, but needs to be said - @austere musk @raven depot @frozen flax @fading kestrel knew I was looking closely (read: obsessively) at Novaya Zemlya and seeing stuff. They all nudged me to apply for the Bellingcat/Planet Labs tasking - when I say nudged, I was really reluctant to apply - but they didn't let me off the hook, so they are all due a lot of credit for the images that came out.

[hallow sparrow]

Hello, I noticed that there were a few posts here about the Rossita, however there has been no mention of the Imandra (another nuclear fuel carrier from Rosatom) which has been missing from AIS since 23.09.2023 when it was in Murmansk. So far I haven't been able to recognize it on other satellite imagery

I was wondering if it could currently be involved in more Russian missile tests

[reef chasm]

So, the short answer is - I don't know!

But, my current guess is that it's still in Murmansk having work done on it.

There's a nice image on GE from 20 June 2023, which I believe shows the Imandra with the pin in it.

We can also see it in the low res Sentinel 2 imagery on 21 June - it seems to disappear on 13 July - on AIS it went further south along the dock. And then it seems like it may reappear in the previous position on 11 September, this would line up fairly well with AIS - and it seems to stay there, between the dockside and another ship.

But like I say, this is a guess and I'm not particularly confident it's a good one.

[hallow sparrow]

#maritime message

Are these flights routine or is there something going on in the Eastern parts of Russia?

[reef chasm]

It's difficult to tell from plane movements alone - they could be training, or doing a rotation to Okinawa or whatever. The thing to try and figure out is if there any other indicators, such as a NOTAM or an announced exercise.

So with that in mind I checked around Kamchatka and found this NOTAM.

Separately, Thord Are Iversen has noted PRIP/NAVWARNS pointing towards the possibility that Russia's annual strategic nuclear forces exercise Grom is going to happen next week: https://vxtwitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1715050251847880753

I'd say, watch this space - it's quite possible we'll be seeing more Cobra Ball flights.

[hallow sparrow]

Damn, they're doing these all over the place

https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings

[reef chasm]

So if they're doing an ICBM test, they may launch from the Barents to Kamchatka.

[hallow sparrow]

What's the plotting website used in the posts and how does it work

If I want to make a visible outline of these areas on a map

[reef chasm]

I use Google Earth with the Add Polygon option. Depending on what I want to do, I might use QGIS instead.

[hallow sparrow]

This thing was flying right towards Rogachevo on Novaya Zemlya before dropping off the radar

It might be related in some way to the build up at the island or maybe to some of the exercises/tests that could be happening in the vicinity

[reef chasm]

Something for Christmas - I've been playing around in QGIS with a satellite image of Severny, Novaya Zemlya that I purchased from SkyFi last summer & some elevation data to make a 3D map: https://severny.s3.eu-north-1.amazonaws.com/3BD/index.html

This is the location in Matochkin Shar, where the Rossita nuclear fuel carrier docked earlier in the year and where Russia is believed to conduct its subcritical nuclear tests.

I'm still a complete amateur with QGIS, but hopefully folks might find this 3D visualisation of interest.

Thanks to @austere musk for checking previous iterations of this and suggesting improvements.

[reef chasm]

The 3D buildings are super basic, but still useful enough for geolocating photos.

E.g.: the grey building in the foreground is new.

[reef chasm]

Comparison of the reported Burevestnik pad in Kapustin Yar, Oct-Dec 2022 with 2023

S2

[astral crane]

@reef chasm by chance, have you come across what appears to be networks of large underground piping connecting any R&D facilities like this? I've noticed some in mainland Russia disconnected from Novaya Zemlya but am unsure what they actually are.

[reef chasm]

@astral crane Hey, sorry for the delay in responding - got distracted with other things.

So, as regards underground stuff - at that launchpad in Kapustin Yar, it looks very much like they laid some pipes or something, between the main technical facilities and the launch pad during 2023.

The R&D & factories regularly seem to be linked up with overground piping which is quite visible in satellite imagery - it probably serves more than one use (e.g. data cables, electricity cables etc) but it closely resembles district heating piping - and usually seems to extend from some kind of central facility, usually power but I guess potentially data centres too: https://www.powermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/fig2-leningrad-nuclear-power-plant-chp-district-heating.jpg

The pink circled building at Sarov (seriously, while Matochkin Shar has been getting lots of interest... people should also be looking at all the building work in Sarov) was built and then pipes apparently leading from it, connected up the (possible) Burevestnik related building.

Also, yeah, I don't think the recently constructed, orange circled facilities are for cookie storage.

[reef chasm]

https://sentinelshare.page.link/vLta
2017-2023 timelapse

[astral crane]

Yeah I was more curious about the underground piping itself, harder to tell whats actually going through those

Appreciate the tid bit of info

[reef chasm]

Could you share any examples, I'm kinda curious about it now too.

I guess I'd love to see if it radiated from a central point like the heating systems would.

[astral crane]

I've not browsed around Novaya itself but I noticed a lot of them in the mid region of the country

They're definitely for oil/gas but waaay to much to see where everything goes

[austere musk]

https://vxtwitter.com/SkyfiApp/status/1748855416593805457

[frozen flax]

@reef chasm cough

[reef chasm]

Thanks to @tacit plaza 's post in the Maritime OSINT Resources thread: #1124877931366318192 message

I was able to revisit some of the AIS tracks from vessels of interest during last year's Burevestnik testing in Novaya Zemlya.

True to form, I've done a timelapse, here:
https://severny.s3.eu-north-1.amazonaws.com/Burevestnik.mp4

I'm still taken aback by what is freely available to hobbyist researchers like me - while there are multiple periods of activity, I think the period around the 18-20th of September really looks like it involved a (planned?) test flight - the Bellingcat/Planet image was taken on the 20th. The visit of Rossita, nuclear fuel carrier, to the port in Matochkin Shar on the 29th of September is still intruiging.

Also of note are the periods around 15-16th August, 23rd August, 3rd-6th September, 8-13th September and 26-28th of September and around 8th of October.

One theory is that the ships are involved in the telemetry collection and/or radiological monitoring during the flights - the latter is why I added the wind data.

[reef chasm]

Just another view of the period around 19/20th of September and locations of the vessels and aircraft that were possibly there to monitor a (planned?) test flight. The dots show the previous 24 hours, back to the 18th.

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Testing of new Russian weapons systems will also continue in the High North. Further testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles, long-range precision-guided weapons, hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite weapons is expected.

Weapons designed for nuclear propulsion, both missiles and torpedoes, were tested at Novaya Zemlya in 2023, and this activity is expected to continue. The testing carries a risk of accidents and local radioactive emissions.

Spotted by @half dagger https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1756996291958063215

Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) on X

The Norwegian Secret Services are presenting their annual open assessments today, as I write this.

Focus 2024, by the Norwegian Intelligence Service, is also out in English.

Here are some highlights on the war and Russia.

Twitter · Feb 12, 2024, 10:58 AM

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Haven't posted here in a while. So here's some interesting (to me) bits from Novaya Zemlya since optical coverage started again in late February.

Two new locations appear to be in use north of Belushya Guba, as evidenced by snow melt/emissions - see the streaks fanning out from both areas in the attached - not sure what for, have a few ideas, but they could be anything at this resolution.

Perhaps more interestingly, a clear heat signature + visible emissions have appeared adjacent to the fuel storage area at Matochkin Shar. I haven't seen this before and not sure if it's power generation or what, but it's curious. Of note, even though yesterday's pass was cloudy/foggy, the heat signature was still clearly visible in false colour - if anything it appears bigger, but perhaps this is due to the conditions.

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FWIW, my main theory on this is that possibly, at least with some of the activity we're seeing, they're just burning their trash that accumulated over the winter.

Why burn it?

Maybe to deter another invasion of polar bears 🐻‍❄️
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_mass_invasion_of_Russian_polar_bears

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So in recent days, I decided to go back over satellite imagery of Novaya Zemlya taken during September 2023, using Sentinel 2 and 3, as well as LandSat and combining that imagery with the vessel activity I shared previously, in order to map activity in the air and seas around Novaya Zemlya.

I obviously can't be sure, but I think it suggests that even if tests weren't actually occurring at these times - they were at least planned, or being rehearsed: monitoring vessels were in position and aircraft were on station for monitoring purposes.

This gif comparing the 6th and 19th is interesting - but might be misleading.

It appears to show aircraft off the east coast on the 6th, while the wind was blowing from the west.
On the 19th, the aircraft are circulating off the west coast, while the wind is blowing from the east.

It's tempting to think that's not a coincidence - but it's possible aircraft were operating off both coasts, simultaneously, I just haven't spotted them.

Links to all the imagery used to plot contrails/aircraft here:

06 Sep - LS: https://sentinelshare.page.link/16gp
06 Sep - S3: https://sentinelshare.page.link/wgQn
06 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/kV4B (contrail)
06 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/p94q (aircraft)

19 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/u6aT (aircraft & contrail off west coast)
19 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/JCjc (contrail over north island)
19 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/hJuE (possible circular contrail over North Test Site - Zone C)
19 Sep - S3: https://sentinelshare.page.link/hGFQ (contrail off west coast)

26 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/sSZv (aircraft taking off from Rogachevo air base)
26 Sep - S2: https://sentinelshare.page.link/ascm (aircraft circulating south of Rogachevo air base)

Probably the single most ambiguous "contrail" is this one:
I can't make my mind up about it - is it a proper contrail? If so, is it showing a circular pattern?
What's probably most interesting is where it is: over North Test Site - Zone C.
A place scarred from atmospheric nuclear tests of years gone by.

Any errors & mistakes in the above are mine alone - but to say thanks to:
@austere musk @raven depot @frozen flax @fading kestrel for the encouragement: "Do it, egg boy!"
And a massive thanks to @half dagger for all of his work monitoring events & being the best source of information on NOTAMs, PRIPs and interesting military & testing activity in the north.

[austere musk]

That's amazing work 🫣

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@austere musk Cheers, hopefully it will be of help to anyone interested in monitoring the site in the future.

My other hope is that if/when Russia releases further images/video of Burevestnik test flights - we might be able to geolocate/chronolocate them a bit more easily.

Bonus:- possible helicopter flying over Matochkin Shar on 28 September 2023.
https://link.dataspace.copernicus.eu/g2z0

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You get a contrail, you get a contrail... everybody gets a contrail!

So after a bit more gawking at clouds and questioning my sanity, turns out there was an aircraft off the west coast during the possible Burevestnik test period on 06 September 2023.

Of note: it was in the NOTAM zone.

Link: https://link.dataspace.copernicus.eu/7uud

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So, I found an aircraft over the north island on the 6th. Have gone full "Pepe Silvia" mode, so going to stop looking at clouds for a bit.
https://link.dataspace.copernicus.eu/qt02

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Rivet Joints went north & around Norway on the 19th and 26th of September, lining up with the air & vessel activity observed in Novaya Zemlya on those dates.

However, I can't see evidence of one venturing north on the 6th of September.