Well, yeah, we can nothing but speculate at this point
#Russian Military Coup [DO NOT POST MEMES - DO POST SOURCES]
drifting crown
Worse
heady jungle
Is this coup even likely to be successful? So far all I’m seeing is news reports reporting that the coup is unsuccessful, but I think we all know news sources are not to be trusted
indigo matrix
Prigozhin's press office says he's not available at the moment: “He sends his regards to everyone and will answer questions when he is on normal communication.” Hi I am away from work on holiday until next week. If you have any questions about the attempted coup, I will respond when I am back in the office. https://t.me/Ateobreaking/91762
hollow dagger
Is this coup even likely to be successful? So far all I’m seeing is news reports...
I wouldn't say blanket "don't trust the news". There's tons of really accurate, responsible news outlets out there.
Whatever happened yesterday is in fact over. Prigozhin looks to be on his way to Belarus, Wagner's pulled back from Rostov and other areas, so this episode is 100% over.
gusty tapir
Prigozhin's press office says he's not available at the moment: “He sends his re...
Totally normal to take a vacation after a failed putsh
pale venture
He's apartment hunting in Minsk
honest hemlock
Twitter
robust forge
pearl nest
drifting crown
The big spectacle was a test for a future coup. He now can lay back and watch the show.
silk wren
Mmm. Wel. This came from UK. And might be planned before. We know they can and will if they really want to. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/10791
silk wren
I wouldn't say blanket "don't trust the news". There's tons of really accurate, ...
Ill bet the differance. The “ coup “ is over.
hollow carbon
they didnt need the show just to reposition
silk wren
they didnt need the show just to reposition
Might be. But it is very wel a future outcome as a next best.
hollow carbon
true
white elbow
Sending them on a basically suicide mission as some sort of a punishment? Otherwise I really don’t see the point
If the plan was for Wagner to attack Kyiv from Belarus all along, why the coup?
hollow carbon
Got to be the worst kind of chess play ever seen if that was the goal all along
silk wren
If the plan was for Wagner to attack Kyiv from Belarus all along, why the coup?
Your guess is as good as mine. Reason is not in place here. And that blocks theories and reason and runs investigations dead on the reasons to act rationally. But i am afraid that bad chess player looks active here. I ran in to the same kind of block within one other item where Russia might be involved in.
primal marten
Not sure how much I trust Pertsev's "insider comments", but may be interesting. Waiting for translated version.
https://vxtwitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1672975273900269568
pearl nest
Not sure how much I trust Pertsev's "insider comments", but may be interesting. ...
works with google translate: https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/25/putina-ne-bylo-nigde
https://meduza-io.translate.goog/feature/2023/06/25/putina-ne-bylo-nigde?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
primal marten
works with google translate: https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/25/putina-ne-bylo...
O yeah, but they publish it in English, too.
honest mist
Your guess is as good as mine. Reason is not in place here. And that blocks theo...
I don't think it is helpful to assume everyone to be an irrational actor by default. A clear lack of motivation cannot be explained away this way.
pearl nest
dont know how credible this is: https://twitter.com/legion_svoboda/status/1672981410062139393
According to our activists, yesterday afternoon, one of the groups of PMC Wagner moved in the direction of Borisoglebsk with the purpose to enter the territory of the military camp "Voronezh-45", where the military unit 14254 (12th Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry (GUMO)) is located. This facility is where the Russian Defense Ministry's tactical nuclear weapons are stored. They took control of the military unit and stayed there for some time.
lethal ermine
Saw that onr pass yesterday as well
pearl nest
Twitter
mellow rampart
Girkin organized some sort of a press conference for this
yeah this was live on youtube earlier today
white elbow
Did Girkin ever criticize Putin directly (not just individuals within MoD etc) before?
honest hemlock
Iirc he has criticised him in the past for being too soft. But not to the point to want him to resign, just wanting him to step up.
This is the crack growing up a little bit
primal marten
Somebody watched his speech? That person deserves double pay.
dusky pier
I think he has called on Putin to resign before but not in a big press conference like this
mellow rampart
for a minute, but no auto translation :/ so dropped out
white elbow
I watched a part of it, some other speaker (I think Fedorov is the name?) talked about transition of power (that he believes can happen in different ways, including in actual democratic elections) that they should be prepared for.
primal marten
I think this summary is from one of his national-bolshewik buddies:```Igor Strelkov: "We need to win the war"
Key points of the speech:
- The so-called Ukraine is waging a total war against Russia;
- The goals of the SVO have not yet been formulated;
- Putin and other representatives of the elites do not demonstrate understanding that the war must be fought to victory;
- The war will last for a long time, mediocre actions of the Russian leadership rule out other options;
- Defeat in the war will plunge the country into chaos, we need to win the war;
- It is necessary to create the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander and State Defense Committee;
- Introduce martial law throughout the territory of the Russian Federation; restore the death penalty; to carry out general mobilization - military and labor;
- The whole current system is built on the irresponsibility of the elites; if the president is not ready to take responsibility for the war, he needs to legally transfer his powers;
- The result of all these activities should be a multimillion-strong army capable of liberating Ukraine in a year and a half;
- About the military mutiny: as a result of the mutiny, there was a serious redistribution of centers of power, in fact, a coup d'état;
- Shoigu and Gerasimov will lose their power, even if they formally retain their posts;
- The rear was not ready for war, the 10,000th rebel group was able to easily move in the rear;
- Yesterday we were on the very threshold of turmoil;
- We must meet the next crisis with a serious political force, let's work together on this.```https://t.me/adirect/16548
PS this Angry Friends Club seems to be a lot of them, plus Girkin and a handful of his buddies.
white elbow
Greyzone posted an AI Prigozhin cosplaying Budanov 🙄 https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1673040407926562817
(Text on the image saying „plans love silence“)
gritty meadow
Do we just ask here if we have any question about this case?
primal marten
Sure. A lot has already been said, but we can try.
gritty meadow
I try to find out how it work. Ty.
On a Telegram channel, it is written: Medvedchuk is implicated in the Prikhodko conspiracy, according to Danilov. According to his words, the Wagner column was provided with free food and refueled at Medvedchuk's gas stations while moving towards Moscow. https://t.me/c/1460259703/13129
hollow dagger
On a Telegram channel, it is written: Medvedchuk is implicated in the Prikhodko ...
Hi! Can you please share the link to the Telegram channel where you're reading this (always share links, please!)
There's a ton of rumours swirling out there right now, and this sounds like a rumour. As much as possible, we try to avoid rumours in this server and instead focus on verifiable news.
warped quiver
hey, there is an unconfirmed rumor that I'm looking for evidence for; belarus lost track of prigozhin? (100% rumor, unconfirmed, random people in chats, probably BS)
it sounds like fan fic
hollow dagger
Been hearing that as well but yeah its just a rumour
That and like, 50 other rumours
warped quiver
I don't think belarus would announce if they lost track of him
silk wren
hollow dagger
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1673052618656997377?s=46
Ahh wow, on top of the IL-18
kind blade
Tom Cooper points out in his latest that the large aircraft seen falling in flames and missing it's tail section has only two engines; therefore, not Il-18 or one of the variants
gritty meadow
https://t.me/c/1460259703/13052 It may be related to the fact that it's stated here. However, being able to research sources and have them confirmed is very new to me. Even if it's just a theory here as well.
kind blade
Well, perhaps "asserts" rather than "points out". I'm not qualified to have an opinion really
primal marten
On a Telegram channel, it is written: Medvedchuk is implicated in the Prikhodko ...
I'm not in that channel, but I see it elsewhere now I know what to look for. It seems it's all based on a radio interview Danilov gave. I would file that under rumours at least for now.
hollow dagger
Here https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/one-eexample-from-an-entire-sea-of?utm...
Ahh interesting thanks for sharing
gritty meadow
I'm not in that channel, but I see it elsewhere now I know what to look for. It ...
Thank you. Tell me if i need to do something a different Way
primal marten
Thank you. Tell me if i need to do something a different Way
No that was good. You could possibly copy the relevant (translated) text, when you linked to a private group, because otherwise not everyone is going to be able to see it.
gritty meadow
Okay Thank
white elbow
On a Telegram channel, it is written: Medvedchuk is implicated in the Prikhodko ...
Danylov did claim this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3sNvvMGjIc (around 2:40, video in Ukrainian), afaik no independent verification of whether this is actually true
primal marten
Okay Thank
For example: ```Putin's godfather Medvedchuk probably contributed to Prigozhin and his so-called "mutiny", - Danilov
According to him, it was at the gas stations of Medvedchuk that the "Wagnerians" ate and refueled their equipment for free, - the Secretary of the National Security Council told about this in an interview with Radio NV.```https://t.me/c/1394092619/50302
true basin
charred latch
Ahh interesting thanks for sharing
So I guess that video was of a different aircraft getting downed? Cause the crashed example is definitely an IL-22 and the video isn't
true basin
fighterbomber id'ed with number earlier so everything should be talking about the same plane
kind blade
Edit you beat me to it 🙂 >> But if the tail number on that wreckage matches a known Il-18 or 20,.. perhaps two large multi-engined ac were shot down??
kind blade
So what's in the video that TC has a still frame from?
true basin
so, he agrees now its the IL-22 (based on IL-18)
gritty meadow
https://t.me/kant_podslushano/9960 Place of the fall of the Il-22 VKS of Russia. The crash killed 10 crew members.
hollow dagger
Yup the wreckage is a 22
https://www.jetphotos.com/registration/RA-75917?term=RA-75917
silk wren
charred latch
Seems to be still an open question what kind of aircraft is in the video of the aircraft spinning out of control. Clearly a twin prop and not four
hollow dagger
Seems to be still an open question what kind of aircraft is in the video of the ...
Ya this is what I'm wondering as well
charred latch
A lot of people seem to have conflated the two different aircraft as one
Even better, I guess, cause that means Wagner actually downed 8 VVS aircraft (assuming the one in the video isn't civvie)
honest hemlock
Ahh wow, on top of the IL-18
Nah, it's only the IL-22, the IL-18 is just a misindentification of the same plane
sacred geyser
Russia 1 presenters saying Prigozhin and Utkin should be executed
(notable given its state media)
honest hemlock
Note that state media and the Kremlin are separate. They work together but they're actually separate entities.
sacred geyser
They are separate but the Kremlin controls the messaging
honest hemlock
I recall reading about it some time ago, I'll try looking into it, but they have some autonomy, it's not Kremlin passing what they have to say but rather it aligns with what they say
cyan seal
They often say absolutely bonkers stuff that goes beyond what the Kremlin would actually do.
honest hemlock
Yeah, they keep calling for nuclear strikes which is clearly not the Kremlin's policy
sacred geyser
Maybe this is verging into speculation for this thread, but if the government is intending to honour the deal and the implicit part that Prigozhin gets to live, it seems counterproductive to allow mainline TV shows to put pressure on the government to execute him.
honest hemlock
So here in this article in mentions how they're separate, the Kremlin provides talking points and they fill in the rest. It's true however that the Kremlin is exerting increasing control, but they don't have full control over it and it's not the voice of the regime: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/technology/russia-state-tv-ukraine-war.html
gritty meadow
https://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2023/06/25/1990771.html American officials were reportedly aware of the plans of private military company Wagner a few days before the events unfolded, according to The New York Times and CNN. The reports suggest that US intelligence warned members of the administration, Congress, and the Department of Defense on June 21. Washington had been closely monitoring the situation with Wagner for months and allegedly intercepted communications of high-ranking Russian military officials. The intelligence agencies of the US and other Western countries also reportedly alerted congressmen about the movements and weapons buildup of Wagner near the Russian border. On June 24, it was announced that the situation with Wagner had been resolved without further losses, with the involvement of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Wagner fighters were to return to their camps, and criminal charges against the founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would be dropped.
thorny star
"according to The New York Times and CNN" that's a bit like saying " a bloke down the pub told me"
sorry, opinion piece, should I delete?
hollow dagger
I haven't read the original reporting on this, curious to give it a look tomorrow
hollow dagger
sorry, opinion piece, should I delete?
Up to you! It's not breaking any rules, I think
Ty! Def worth a read
Hey the "officials familiar with the matter" might have met the NYT journos at the pub soooo haha
thorny star
Sort of easy to say "oh yea we knew about that" without actually backing that up and the NYT is a willing disseminator of such US 'intelligence' statements
Lets be honest here, we dont know even a tiny proportion of what goes on in these circles and one thing glaringly apparent about this conflict is that propaganda, disinformation and plain old trolling is in heavy usage
nimble river
What's the facts around Wagner's apparently capture of Voronezh-45 during the mutiny?
I ask because Pavel Podvig (an expert in Russian nuclear forces) is pushing back on the claims.
white elbow
Aside from (unsourced) reports from the Liberty to Russia legion, I don’t think I‘ve seen any further elaborations
honest hemlock
What's the facts around Wagner's apparently capture of Voronezh-45 during the mu...
It's Sushko, so probably made up
nimble river
That was my impression.
red geyser
Aside from (unsourced) reports from the Liberty to Russia legion, I don’t think ...
All I've seen is pure speculation, so probably false
red geyser
Work begins
trail terrace
I searched for Christo's interview with Julia Ioffe he mentioned and came across this December article citing that interview
https://uinterview.com/news/daily-digest/putin-in-belarus-for-talks-as-coup-rumors-mount-in-moscow/
The article's suggestion that the visit was linked to coup rumors has no strong evidence, but it seems plausible now
(at least the headline aged well)
charred latch
Possibly referring to the missile attack on Wagner positions that seems incredibly fake?
warped quiver
Possibly referring to the missile attack on Wagner positions that seems incredib...
I think it was an airstrike, there is evidence of API fire on a tree, so helicopter attack, cannon fire, frags and airburst
Meduza says it is all fake, but I'm pretty sure none of thier refuting points were scrutinized by professionals?
Their first point, that they were 'running toward the artillery fire' was just flat out wrong, it was definitely late aftermath.
crisp maple
They are separate but the Kremlin controls the messaging
This is not entirely accurate either
TLDRing it to avoid going off topic but we tend to call these people "propagandists" which raises a relatively inaccurate belief that these people are actually an integral part of state efforts, as a state propagandist would be. This is not true, these are actual commentators, the state just amplifies them where its beneficial, and for a multitude of reasons they tend not to release things adversarial to the standing govt.
Them even being given materials to speak on (which - this would not make them propagandists) would not be as common of an occurrence over them just ranting. What instead would be happening in most cases where there is intentional alignment that is presented by the state, would be the state giving a very broad gist of a matter to talk around, basically the concept of it, not what to actually say or do etc.
pearl nest
works with google translate: https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/25/putina-ne-bylo...
meduza published their translation: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/25/putin-was-nowhere-to-be-found
mellow rampart
Dutch news (NOS) already saying there are small signs of revenge being taken on Wagner mercs..
pearl nest
video of shoigu published:
https://vxtwitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673195607148707842?s=20
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/18115801
primal marten
<:facepalm:711594301351657583> Dutch news (NOS) already saying there are small ...
Radio or TV?
mellow rampart
Radio
pearl nest
referring to the execution video?
mellow rampart
no just referring to small signs, haven't seen "that video"
pearl nest
https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1672998765517590529
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/13103062
https://open.spotify.com/show/1NKCazxYstY6o8vhpGQSjF
New episode by Galeotti dropped:
Twitter
drifting crown
Can you spoiler that pls
stray vigil
Not on phone, I'll just delete for the mo
drifting crown
Ok, will share then
white elbow
Ru media mention that Prigozhin is still under investigation for mutiny: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6068297
pearl nest
video of shoigu published:
https://vxtwitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673195607148...
mood in the russian newspapers: https://vxtwitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1673235112304189446
hollow dagger
Twitter
pearl nest
works for me on spotify, apple podcasts and the buzzsprout link
silk wren
Translated from Dutch news to English. Source is. https://nos.nl/l/2480327#UPDATE-container-70273202 It is still unclear what the ended rebellion means for Wagner. The military analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the fact that Wagner troops are returning to base with their equipment means that the Kremlin intends to at least retain elements of the group, in instead of immediately demobilizing them.
ISW quotes the words of Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma. It announced yesterday that the State Duma is working on a law to regulate private military companies (PMCs). Kartapolov called Wagner "the most combat-ready unit in Russia." He further noted that the future of the Wagner group has not yet been determined and stressed that the troops in Rostov-on-Don "followed their orders" and did "nothing reprehensible".
Kartapolovs attempted to absolve the Wagner staff of responsibility for participating in an armed uprising and to separate them from leader Prigozhin. This could indicate the Russian government's desire to continue using Wagner personnel in some form, according to ISW.
pearl nest
Translated from Dutch news to English. Source is. https://nos.nl/l/2480327#U...
sourced isw report in english with references: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023
spark wave
For spoilers, put || at the start and end of text or link you want to hide
Just use < > to disable preview. Unless you think the URL itself is sensitive somehow.
silk wren
Just use < > to disable preview. Unless you think the URL itself is sensitive so...
Thank you. Is done.
flat oasis
Is anyone looking into that Shoigu video? I saw some milbloggers claiming it's old or video taken on June 23. Metadata shows creation date from today, at least for the Premiere project. https://www.metadata2go.com/result#j=1ba09e82-5ffe-46ba-a9d2-c0dffc0803ad
Watch seems to be at 12:45 which wouldn't fit with metadata (all around 8am)
white elbow
Does the metadata show actual recording times or the time where the file was created, copied, edited etc.?
flat oasis
I think just when file was created and edited
on this video https://t.me/mod_russia/27845
white elbow
A Wagner recruitment center opens up again: https://t.me/tass_agency/198191
flat oasis
on this video https://t.me/mod_russia/27845
they also blurred Nikiforov's watch (bottom right)
silk wren
Does the metadata show actual recording times or the time where the file was cre...
With a tool it is possible to change the exif of pictures or footage without a trace if you know were to look for. That date might be , in this case, not conclusive. And any edit on that footage might change that date also.
rapid hedge
So they blurred one watch, but forgot the other? That's somehow more incompetent than not blurring either of them.
pearl nest
flat oasis
So we looked and it seems like the same place of a Izvestia report from July 21, 2022 when Shoigu visited the command post of the "West" group of troops. https://iz.ru/1367961/2022-07-21/ekspert-rasskazal-o-podgotovke-k-novoi-aktivnoi-faze-spetcoperatcii
pearl nest
So we looked and it seems like the same place of a Izvestia report from July 21...
looks similar, is anything known about the location of the "command post of the Zapad group"?
pearl nest
white elbow
someone worried about Rostov people being too friendly to Wagners there?
heady jungle
How do you know this please ?
eternal lark
someone worried about Rostov people being too friendly to Wagners there?
Rostov had 1,1m inhabitants, a few dozen doesn’t really mean anything
pearl nest
Analysis by Timothy Snyder: https://snyder.substack.com/p/prigozhins-march-on-moscow
How to understand Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow and its sudden end? Often there are plots without a coup; this seemed like a coup without a plot. Yet weird as the mercenary chief’s mutiny was, we can draw some conclusions from its course and from its conclusion.
pearl nest
prigozhin with a new audio: https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1673342045103038464
mellow rampart
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1673290149902315523
https://twitter.com/Mass...
is there a better source of that footage?
nvm saw it above
drifting crown
So they blurred one watch, but forgot the other? That's somehow more incompetent...
Guess they didn't care about the timestamp it gives but more about the Cartier logo
drifting crown
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673298455224090624
How fast they were printed
pearl nest
Guess they didn't care about the timestamp it gives but more about the Cartier l...
or the date on a digital watch
glacial beacon
thats a lot of back tracking
hollow carbon
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673341974882004994
I doubt exposing a weakness like that goes unpunished, especially in a country like Russia?
Even if his goal was with the best intentions for Russia
mellow rampart
Yeah guessing we're watching the fall-out right now.. 🙂 with some secondary explosions left & right
hollow carbon
He will keep Prigozhin unpunished to satisfy a lot of military, and make them think something is being done about the situation
mellow rampart
true, guess they went to keep as much of the Wagner forces... but the decapitation video's doesn't help
white elbow
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304
summary in English here: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673345844148314112
Twitter
nimble river
So I spotted this in the video of them pulling out:
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1672835759194222593
"We have nothing to do with it, don't get on my nerves with it," explains an angry employee of Busservice Nordkirchen Kühn & Schöneis GmbH based in Nordkirchen. Before he hangs up, he adds: "We sold the bus four years ago." That was in 2019. The vehicle apparently ended up in the hands of the Wagner soldiers via detours and served them as a troop transport in Rostov-on-Don last weekend.
Found by @honest mist 😛
honest hemlock
We saw a Norwegian truck at the start of the U turn operation, so that adds to the use of old Western equipment being used by them
nimble river
Or the American dudes work truck being used by ISIS
honest hemlock
Sure, but I think that the Norwegian truck used by Wagner is more relevant in this case if you ask me 😛
pearl nest
prigozhin being quoted like any other politician in every newspaper around the world minutes after publishing an statement is quite the success i would say. also for his domestic standing
hollow carbon
A success to further destabilize Russia's internal politics and to speed up his own demise
crisp maple
Analysis by Timothy Snyder: https://snyder.substack.com/p/prigozhins-march-on-mo...
This is great but the very last point leaves me a little uneasy because they basically discount the entirety of any deception happening which is a bit unlikely
pearl nest
i dont think he wants to say there is zero deception involved in the last days more like prig. and putin didnt plan the mutiny together. thats how i read it.
crisp maple
yeah I agree there, just not a fan of thought processes like that because they tend to discard it based off something that sounds logically reasonable but when the deception is at play it alters the entire context
thats why analyzing those events has its whole own special constellation of analysis techniques that are used in a way quite a bit diff from the same techniques used in other areas
Cause for example he says this
"But the idea of such a plan makes no sense. If Putin and Prigozhin were on cooperative terms, they could have simply agreed on such a move in a way that would not have damaged both of their reputations (and left Russia weaker)."
While the specific point he is talking about wrt Ukraine I align with him on, this statement is much broader and pretty much frames it as if there was no deception around that part, even if they weren't really fully cooperative still. The issue if deception is at play in any regard, exactly that is the type of ambiguity they are going to lower to keep the perceptive disconnect at play, even if their "cooperation" was like a 5 minute conversation where they agreed on something that is not informed to the public (denial) but the denial of such intentionally used to decrease ambiguity.
Those sorts of deception can also be done without the other person being a willing participant. For example taking the CI trust style operations if that was going on here, you have two forms, controlling the environment and controlling the group/group leadership. Controlling the environment is less common, but it does happen sometimes, and in these cases the external group participating is usually entirely unknowing and unwilling, nor would the leadership support it conciously.
pearl nest
hm, i still dont read that sentence as completely denying deception, maybe im a little more forgiving here. he talks a little about his techniques as a historian in his yale lecture on ukraine iirc. lets move this to #chit-chat
cosmic dove
We saw a Norwegian truck at the start of the U turn operation, so that adds to t...
Source?
honest hemlock
Source?
You can see it here (not the original source but it works out)
https://vxtwitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672414619275517952
cosmic dove
And, will Wagner become a Belarusian company? If so they may be regarded as a mercenary by the Geneve Convention - since Wagner is currently protected since they are nationals part of the conflict. Granted there might be other rules that protect them.
cosmic dove
You can see it here (not the original source but it works out)
https://vxtwitte...
So, related to them stopping production in Russia?
https://www.tu.no/artikler/kjoper-elementfabrikk-i-litauen/526799
gritty meadow
hollow dagger
Headline seems pretty clickbait-y
quasi night
Express.co.uk not a great news resource
gritty meadow
okay I early today saw something about wagner will be take care of nuclear wepon, but now i can't find it again. I pretty sure it was in a danish news
primal marten
Headline seems pretty clickbait-y
I would not exactly call it a quality newspaper.
honest hemlock
So, related to them stopping production in Russia?
https://www.tu.no/artikler/kj...
As @true basin suggested after, it could have been either seized or sold
gritty meadow
i still looking for the other one i saw earlier in danish but have just been alone now, so i looking forward with it
pearl nest
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1673385484712550413
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1673385487749337088
quasi night
i still looking for the other one i saw earlier in danish but have just been alo...
The express piece has a load of quotes from uk parliament / mps, again not really a great source too, as they'll be using a lot of this to distract from all the economic turmoil going on in the uk right now.
honest hemlock
i still looking for the other one i saw earlier in danish but have just been alo...
As a rule of thumb, anything "nuclear" should be treated with a lot of scepticism, there's a lot of clickbaiting with it
gritty meadow
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/live/udland/2023-06-26-seneste-nyt-i-krigen-i-ukraine i can translate but here in danish news Media: Wagner Camps Under Construction in Belarus
Camps for Wagner mercenaries are being built in Belarus, according to the independent Russian news outlet Verstka, as reported by Sky News.
The barracks can accommodate 8,000 soldiers and are being constructed near Asipovichy in the Mogilev Oblast, approximately 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
The news outlet also states that more camps will be built in the future.
Wagner leader Evgeny Prigozhin is believed to be in Belarus following an agreement with Vladimir Putin, which ended the brief uprising last Saturday.
Speculations have since grown that future attacks on Ukraine could be launched from Belarus.
opaque birch
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1784730/russia-nuclear-fears-Wagner-Bela...
Classic british tabloid there...
Them, Independent, Sun, Evening Standard herald the end of the world nightly.
gritty meadow
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/live/udland/2023-06-26-seneste-nyt-i-krigen-i-ukraine i c...
@opaque birch what about danish news
opaque birch
No clue! I'm not Danish 😄
gritty meadow
i am
quasi night
<@768475630462304276> what about danish news
This news piece is just quoting from a russian news source - so i'd recommend going to the original news source it's quoting from and reading that, and checking the legitimacy of that source too.
white elbow
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/live/udland/2023-06-26-seneste-nyt-i-krigen-i-ukraine i c...
I don't see anything about nuclear weapons though?
gritty meadow
how can i find out it the news site is trust i can use
opaque birch
how can i find out it the news site is trust i can use
Common sense... reputation...
Wikipedia has a nice source guide.
primal marten
https://vxtwitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1673383576824324119
Сейчас время, когда у каждого гражданина, каждого патриота не может быть никаких ЛИЧНЫХ интересов. Есть только интересы нашего любимого Отечества!
heady jungle
"Belarusian media, citing sources in the forestry of the Mogilev region, report that construction of a field camp has begun in the Osipovichi area to accommodate PMC Wagner."
pearl nest
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673396717138354180?s=20
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673399775331229703?s=20
Twitter
Twitter
honest hemlock
mellow rampart
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1673344652039028745
didn't that belarusian project say it's a fake?
honest hemlock
If they did I missed it and that would be important
mellow rampart
Hajun* project i think thought i saw someone post it earlier
honest hemlock
Hajun* project i think thought i saw someone post it earlier
They may be right, but also they may be unaware, I think that satellite imagery will dispell any doubts, I feel it's harder evidence than X person/group said this or that
white elbow
Hajun did not detect any construction work in the area: https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7017
pearl nest
pearl nest
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673404745858314261
Dyumin replacing Shoigu?
Reports appeared on pro-war telegram channels that the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin , could replace Sergei Shoigu as defense minister. Prigozhin demanded Shoigu's resignation
https://t.me/meduzalive/86719
devout pelican
Do we know what time the speeches are
uncut path
pearl nest
skynews says its expected shortly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE
devout pelican
Nice one
hollow dagger
Cross post from #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe
(WARNING: opening the link will open a Telegram chat with a graphic video above the item linked here)
desert escarp
It’s streaming?
primal marten
Yes.
primal marten
Cross post from <#709766067936821310>
(WARNING: opening the link will open a Te...
Can you add a warning that there's a graphic video two above this one?
honest hemlock
Aric is live translating the speech in #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe
heady jungle
Well, that was Putin 101.
grizzled hound
Missed most of it: was there any news in there or just messaging?
hollow dagger
Missed most of it: was there any news in there or just messaging?
Nothing new
hollow dagger
Missed most of it: was there any news in there or just messaging?
Summary starting https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/709766067936821310
grizzled hound
Nothing new
Gotcha. Thanks
stray vigil
This may have been posted already but https://v.redd.it/4wmf2ctt768b1
I want to say strange but this whole thing is surreal anyway
Context : an exert of an interview with Prigozhin where the presenter asks him whether he plans to march on Moscow (and he says no I haven't thought about it) not sure when it dates from, one twitter user says April.
kind blade
I would not exactly call it a quality newspaper.
Oh, I don't know. It's strong and absorbent, albeit not very soft.
heady jungle
Second report of the Osipovichi location as the rehoming camp for Wagner, though this one stating 24 sq. km. and the other 24,000 sq. m. in size. That is, an estimated 8,000 people and equipment, living in austere conditions somewhere outside of town. This incident sourced Russian media called "Layout."
For size reference ...the two red circles.
Question: Where are the well know, geo-known Belarusian military training areas? Major Bases?
red geyser
https://t.me/wagnernew/8412 Wagner telegram tries to spin the mutiny as a "test of security forces"
Wagner has implemented the game "on the brink", without crossing that very line. Attack on Moscow and Rostov revealed the problems of security of our cities and strategic facilities, which were completely defenseless.
toxic tiger
Ah, I see now. So this was more of a militarily exercise/stress test. Kind of like saying “Hey, it’s not what it looks like. I know we kicked in the back door and took over the kitchen , but we stopped short of the bedroom because that would be going too far. We were just doing you a favor by pointing out that that you have some serious home security vulnerabilities that you should sort out.”
red geyser
Ah, I see now. So this was more of a militarily exercise/stress test. Kind of li...
goes along with the "just a prank bro" narrative
toxic tiger
goes along with the "just a prank bro" narrative
Pretty much.
Has anyone compiled a list of the various air defense assets recorded in videos and photos of the Wagner thunder run? I'm curious about the specific circumstances of each of those aircraft downings, and where their AD equipment was when they happened. Can some of them fire on the move in a convoy? I’ve never thought about this until now.
red geyser
Has anyone compiled a list of the various air defense assets recorded in videos ...
I saw Iglas and Strela-10s
besides MANPADS, I don't think anything else was used
toxic tiger
The Drive has a pretty good breakdown. It looks like Pantsir S-1 was also there. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wagner-boss-declares-war-on-russian-defense-ministry
shy pine
Has anyone compiled a list of the various air defense assets recorded in videos ...
I feel pretty comfortable speculating that the aircraft had trouble locating the convoy and distinguishing its vehicles from civilian traffic, especially given the chaos and paralysis on the ground. Clearly that Il-22 should never in a million years have been near the enemy, or even at that altitude. So not entirely surprising that they stumbled upon the enemy and lost seven knife fights.
toxic tiger
I feel pretty comfortable speculating that the aircraft had trouble locating the...
That wouldn't surprise me at all, but I was wondering more about the logistics of using air defence in a convoy. I always thought that these systems had to park somewhere and set up to work.
nimble river
primal marten
https://twitter.com/dmytrosolenko/status/1672635497833742339
Yes, this happened all day Saturday. They put a red-and-white ribbon around the tank to keep people at a distance.
stray vigil
Regarding the claim of camps for 8000 Wagner troupes being moved to Belorus, Washington post says the source of the news is Verstka and it couldn't be independently confirmed so take with grain of salt. They said "Russian news outlet Verstka reported that a Wagner base for 8,000 soldiers was being constructed in Belarus, southeast of Minsk. While the report could not be independently confirmed, prominent Russian military blogger Mikhail Zvinchuk, who goes by Rybar on Telegram, said Monday evening that Wagner units had entered Belarus with weapons and other equipment."
The article also mentions that British Intelligence says there are about 8,000 Wagner soldiers in total, despite Prigozhin's claims that they are 25,000
So IF both claims are true they are moving all of them out
limpid karma
Apologies if this is the wrong space but does anyone have any idea on why this flight is going from Moscow to Washington?
hollow dagger
https://twitter.com/peepaw_luke/status/1673602316300349440?s=46&t=xG5IxjaGu6YNVd...
We were talking about it in #maritime
No idea about this one, but previous flights like this carried expelled diplomats
limpid karma
Ahh. Thank you!
silk wren
Wagner is moving towards and in Belorussia. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1673559509942378496?s=46
Twitter
honest hemlock
Wagner is moving towards and in Belorussia. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...
Nothing confirms that. It's a claim from Rybar (Russian state source) but so far there's any evidence for it
pliant cipher
There have been unreliable reports of military gathering near the Kremlin
honest hemlock
There have been unreliable reports of military gathering near the Kremlin
Mind sharing a source of those reports?
pliant cipher
Mind sharing a source of those reports?
currently trying to link the telegram channel, give me 5 minutes or so
honest hemlock
No hurry (:
quasi night
There have been unreliable reports of military gathering near the Kremlin
he's giving out medals: https://twitter.com/abhishekjha157/status/1673649588241317889?s=20
pliant cipher
No hurry (:
The telegram channel seems to have been privatized, but I still have a screenshot
pliant cipher
he's giving out medals: https://twitter.com/abhishekjha157/status/16736495882413...
Oh, right, it's just a ceremony
honest hemlock
Got the name of the channel even if it's private?
pliant cipher
Got the name of the channel even if it's private?
Moslenta/Мослента. It's a bit clickbaity and yellow-press-like
honest hemlock
Hmm, must be a separate one from moslentaru which is available and I don't see that post in
pliant cipher
Moslentaru is likely a knockoff, since Moslenta has about 10 times as many subscribers
https://t.me/+4ThYFc3DW5diOTBi Still private, but here's the link just in case
hollow dagger
There was just a military event at the Kremlin no? Putin spoke there
white elbow
Apparently people working in Wagner recruitment centers are saying that everything is business as usual, no one is going to Belarus: https://theins.ru/news/262959
pearl nest
Apparently people working in Wagner recruitment centers are saying that everythi...
would match with otg reports from belarus saying no movement of troops and no construction of camps seen
stray vigil
would match with otg reports from belarus saying no movement of troops and no co...
What's otg?
honest hemlock
What's otg?
On The Ground
frigid flame
Not sure if this has been shared; Lukashenko talking about his POV/timeline in state media.
white elbow
so according to Luka, he is the only one who remained level-headed, despite both Putin and Prigozhin wanting to escalate.
pearl nest
white elbow
so according to Luka, he is the only one who remained level-headed, despite both...
also, according to Luka, "Prigozhin was very influenced by [Wagner] commanders" when deciding to march - on this, is there is actually anything known about the fate of Utkin etc.?
silk wren
Casualtys of the IL-22. Plus translation: The Cheka-OGPU had a list of crew members of the IL-22, which was shot down in Russia by PMC Wagner.
The ship's commander Artem Sharoglazov. Commander of the ship instructor Artem Milovanov. Navigator Gennady Beljakin. Assistant commander of the ship - Nikita Golubev. Engineer on board - Viktor Popov Technician - Igor Volochilov. On-board mechanic, Alexey Skrykov. Radio operator Sergey Starushok. Head of the communications center - Alexander Sviridov. Senior radio operator Viktor Podrepny https://t.me/vchkogpu/39613
Twitter
heady jungle
Lukashenko Shares Details of Negotiations with PMC Wagner. Key Takeaways
"MINSK, 27 June (BelTA) – After a ceremony to present general's shoulder straps to high-ranking officers Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko shared the details of the negotiations to resolve the attempted mutiny situation involving the PMC Wagner and also the motives for his actions and position, BelTA has learned.
The event at the Palace of Independence was planned, but its format was expanded. The leadership of the military and law enforcement agencies, special forces, and media chiefs, political scientists and journalists were invited to attend. The conversation turned out to be thorough, and most importantly, as frank as possible, with answers to the most pressing questions that the society has been discussing in recent days. Aleksandr Lukashenko also commented on a number of information ‘leaks' and speculations."
heady jungle
Casualtys of the IL-22. Plus translation: The Cheka-OGPU had a list of crew m...
#1121882157414100993 message
Question: Where are the well know, geo-known Belarusian military training areas? Major Bases?
white elbow
https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1121882157414100993/112299343450...
deepstatemap has some locations marked
and hajun of course: https://hajunby.motolko.help/?date=2023-06-26
heady jungle
You all are great! Thank you.
pearl nest
Twitter
heady jungle
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1673706623905284098
There are a few options in the area mentioned in previous chatter. The one's I could locate are overlayed in red.
ripe citrus
also, according to Luka, "Prigozhin was very influenced by [Wagner] commanders" ...
That’s a great question, I wonder what they negotiated for Utkin
heady jungle
That’s a great question, I wonder what they negotiated for Utkin
Amnesty
heady jungle
For both Prigozhin and utkin?
My understanding is amnesty for all Prigozhin and all Wagner, which is why the RF rebutted and said those who want to leave, leave, and those who want to stay, stay and sign a contract with the MOD or go back to being a civilian.
solemn light
"We need to invest millions of shekels in urgent measures. This situation is more dramatic than a war," Forer said, “we need special flights.”
“On Saturday, all the tickets were sold out within minutes because they wanted to escape from Russia. We need to reach an agreement with the Russian government to authorize special flights," he added.
drifting crown
>>> "We need to invest millions of shekels in urgent measures. This situation is...
Did they do that for Ukrainian Jews, too?
frigid flame
CNN on Prigozhin's planes, summarizes earlier information from @Hajun_BY twitter well, along with unnamed source confirmation tying RA-02878 to Prigozhin
solemn light
Did they do that for Ukrainian Jews, too?
heres a very jingoistic and nationalistic piece by the last government's Minister of Immigration detailling how happy she is from all the new immigrants
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/it-was-a-year-of-immigration-in-record-numbers-and-it-was-beautiful/
I'm not sure what prompted this exact response to a coup d'etat of Wagner.
I wonder if this means there are secret backroom dealings between Israel and Russia concerning the matter of security for russian jews, and a scenario where the potential fall of Putin would significantly alarm them.
drifting crown
heres a very jingoistic and nationalistic piece by the last government's Ministe...
As long as they not raid houses and destroy families for their new arrivals
..
solemn light
about half of ukrainian refugees went back to ukraine I think
most of them non-jewish
fresh belfry
It's weird that Russian Jews would flee to Israel in the face of Prigozhins march of justice given the anti-Semitic rhetoric directed at prigozhin by other prominent Russian nationalists like Girkin
shy pine
I fail to see how it's weird at all
If ancien regime anti-Semites go to war with insurgent nazis, they are just guaranteed to be targeted by both sides.
charred latch
Or just the fact that people flee conflicts with whatever tools they have at their disposal. If laws of certain countries give people the opportunity to flee there easier, they'll do so. Israel's laws make it easier for Russian Jews to flee there, so they go there
shy pine
Or just the fact that people flee conflicts with whatever tools they have at the...
That would be an "and," not an "or"
Anti-semitism is a canonical trait of Russian nationalism. Which has generally been restrained by a certain amount of commitment to cosmopolitanism on the part of the Soviet and Putin regimes.
charred latch
Fair. Entirely reasonable to fear specific targeting of Jewish populations by a group like Wagner founded by a guy like Utkin, on top of just general collateral damage and conflict
signal thicket
I'm not sure what prompted this exact response to a coup d'etat of Wagner.
I wo...
no it does not - any Jew in the world can go to Israel and they get instant reception, if not straight citizenship
and they know, turmoil=pogrom
sorry for bad links that are looked down upon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return
there is a history in Russia, every time there was bad enviromnet (aka all the time) pravoslavnik people were setting their houses on fire, blaming situation on them etc
Pale of Settlement was a Russian invention
solemn light
I feel like I've derailed the purpose of the thread a bit. I'm sorry lads
signal thicket
about half of ukrainian refugees went back to ukraine I think
refugees non Jewish are not included in the law of return scheme, that is applicable to all Jews from wherever
(can we post memes now, mod??)
solemn light
Yes, but Israel accepted a certain number of non-jewish refugees
I believe Zelenskyy tweeted something about removing refugee quotas too
July 3rd 2022, I had this marked down as refugee quotas abolished, but I didnt write the specifics
one second
Basically, gov wanted just 5000 non-jews in their 20k refugees at the time , supreme court struck that down and removed the restriction
brazen leaf
Prigozhin returns to Russia? His business jet flew from Belarusian Machulishchi towards Russia
Thus, Prigozhin's plane stayed in Machulishchi for 14 hours and 59 minutes. Tonight, Lukashenko spent about 5 hours in a residence on the Minsk Sea, where he probably met with Prigozhin.
39 minutes after that, Prigozhin’s plane and the second plane took off from Machulishchi, which, together with his plane, flew there this morning.
Source: https://t.me/United24media/10956
hollow dagger
(can we post memes now, mod??)
Nope!
patent rover
signal thicket
Yes, but Israel accepted a certain number of non-jewish refugees
Yes, but not on non-Jewish Russians
which is fair
patent rover
Yes, but not on non-Jewish Russians
That would be a no....
signal thicket
exactly my point; all that theory was that maybe there is some conspiracy that X qty of Russian Jews fled to Israel and probably back door discussions; nope, it is their right as Jews
and could have happened last week much the same
silk wren
Another possible development. Looking for better source and confirmation. But in mean while this noticed. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1673737828864344081?s=46
Twitter
solemn light
Yes, but not on non-Jewish Russians
the definition of a jew that can be accepted through the law of return is very vague actually, so a significant number of non-but quasi-jewish russian and ukrainians managed to immigrate to Israel, or at least use it as a stepping stone to go to other countries. Its a common critique of the Israeli far right who wants more purity tests to remove the "grandfather clause"
a single jewish grandfather is enough despite that not being "jewish", since the law of return is modeled after anyone nazi germany would have deemed a jew. But you absolutely need written documents proving it.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/russians-search-for-jewish-roots-to-flee-putins-army-draft-for-israel/
Theres been a lot of genealogy searching in Russia as it happens. Such jews are generally not considered as part of the "core" jewish identity, and are instead just jewish by happenstance.
The question is significantly more complicated than one might think, this wikipedia page offers several answers to this question, while also noting certain official positions, and showing just how much of a weird identity issue the jewish one is,
Anyways, thats enough, no more derailing from me
signal thicket
Man, you are right; but citizens of Israel they can become instantly if they have a Jewish grandma or are married to someone who has such grandma
that they are Jews or not per Halakhic law
solemn light
bring this in DMs
signal thicket
get anyone of Jewish descent/knowledge to explain better
those Jewish Russians who left over the weekend have the right
Christian Ukrainians are refugees
patent rover
those Jewish Russians who left over the weekend have the right
Perhaps explain in a seperate forum thread?
signal thicket
they do not get citizenship, and there is a quota
for Jews to go to Israel there is no quota
signal thicket
Perhaps explain in a seperate forum thread?
rather I woudl stop, at this stage one should read teh wiki, truly
there is no "maybe there is a conspiracy" ffs
patent rover
Happy for the conversation to continue but DMs or seperate forum thread probably the best place to keep this place clean and focussed.
Memes are also encouraged in DMs.... it is a win/win situation
solemn light
Another possible development. Looking for better source and confirmation. But in...
this is rather vague and no information is provided
I cant find anything about it in a 5 minute search
patent rover
red geyser
Writing this timeline will be the death of me, this is literally just the first day
(resolution is too low to read, I'll release it when finished)
toxic tiger
Writing this timeline will be the death of me, this is literally just the first ...
If you need help geolocating anything, I can try to help.
pearl nest
claims about purges by rybar:
https://t.me/rybar/49102
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1673921271355043840
pearl nest
claims about purges by rybar:
https://t.me/rybar/49102
https://twitter.com/secr...
https://archive.ph/PHnbA
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html
silk wren
Well. That is no news this confirmation with in one of Putin’s speeches https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1673800975381831680?s=46
Twitter
silk wren
But. Than again. This is Russia. It go’s up down left and right in utter contradictions. https://twitter.com/warmonitors/status/1673725660206956545?s=46
Twitter
true basin
doubt they can afford to get rid of a ton of people, they will make example of some - perhaps repurpose some gear and if they need to get rid of some masses put them in more risky operations probably
but since overloading on conflicting information is RU default, its going to keep going and creating a lot of work if you want to sort or look for whats the more correct of it
fresh belfry
i liked the lines from the kremlin about Wagner being entirely funded by the Russian gov
isn't that kind of how mercenaries work?
they arent charities
pearl nest
https://archive.ph/PHnbA
<https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagners-prigozhin-planned-to-capture-russian-military-leaders-805345cf
https://archive.ph/7zVXP
opaque birch
i liked the lines from the kremlin about Wagner being entirely funded by the Rus...
'specially after the lines in 2019 that it was independent of the Kremlin.
white elbow
Strelkov claims that Prigozhin, together with other commanders, are in Russia for negotiations: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1674043515066621955?t=4nlFDhszsoml5-ysOSe1xA&s=19
Unclear what his sources are
terse fable
Are they drinking tea?
Ukrainian telegram posted same screenshot
https://t.me/c/1297540669/29660
Same with Ateo and source seems to be Strelkov
white elbow
also some Ru Telegram channels report Surovikin being arrested, but no reliable confirmation yet
spark wave
sure
honest hemlock
Got a link to any of those channels? 👀
primal marten
Maks tweeted about it, of course… 🙄
opaque birch
Psyop.
primal marten
Pozdnyakov mentioned it, but clearly added it was unconfirmed.
mellow rampart
*Putin regime:
- Allowed a criminal to organize an illegal private army
- Allowed to recruit drug addicts, murderers, pedophiles into this army
- Supply this gang with weapons
- I pumped tens of billions from the state budget into this gang
- Praised this gang on TV
- Advertised this gang at every turn
- Rewarded the leaders of this gang
- Released killers and pedophiles from this gang to freedom
- Persecuted those who criticized this gang
- Turned a blind eye to public executions
And when the gang, brutalized by weapons, money, blood and impunity, rebelled, the Putin regime blamed the West for everything, and declared itself the savior of Russia.*
still loving this chatter on Russian channels (source: t.me/Ateobreaking (https: // t.me / Ateobreaking)
primal marten
(Tg is being slow, so no links yet.)
white elbow
Got a link to any of those channels? 👀
I am not familiar with this user, so yes, huge grain of salt
honest hemlock
Even that post clearly states that it requires further confirmation
white elbow
the channel is weird in any case, claiming to be someone from "special services". My bet is on psyop
pearl nest
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagners-prigozhin-planned-to-capture-russian-milita...
wsj suggests something similar:
The Wagner rebellion has triggered large-scale purges in the Russian armed forces, according to Mikhail Zvinchuk, a former Defense Ministry official who now runs a blog about Russia’s military and its invasion of Ukraine.
The indecisiveness in suppressing the rebellion is being cited as a reason for purging commanders and officials, Zvinchuk wrote. Surovikin hasn’t been seen since Saturday.
primal marten
^^ that's Rybar.
pearl nest
^^ that's Rybar.
oh, didnt make the connection and thought the wsj wouldnt use rybar/him as a source. thanks
dusky pier
Didn't Rybar also write some rumors about Surovikin? Can't access it rn but probably easy to confirm
flat oasis
Curious to what sat imagery they’re referring here, which provider: “Western intelligence agencies also found out early about the plans by Prigozhin, Putin’s former confidant, by analyzing electronic communications intercepts and satellite imagery, according to a person familiar with the findings. Western officials said they believe the original plot had a good chance of success but failed after the conspiracy was leaked, forcing Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan.”
primal marten
Didn't Rybar also write some rumors about Surovikin? Can't access it rn but prob...
They mentioned that the rumours are going round.
hollow dagger
Curious to what sat imagery they’re referring here, which provider: “Western int...
hmm I wonder if they heard talk of Wagner massing to move into Russia and then confirmed via sat imagery?
flat oasis
Makes sense
frigid flame
*Putin regime:
1. Allowed a criminal to organize an illegal private army
2. Allo...
Алты́нного во́ра ве́шают, а полти́нного че́ствуют | Russian proverb (small thieves are hung, but big ones escape)
frigid flame
I believe altyn (was?) slang for a small coin in tsarist russia. EDIT: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Алтын_(денежная_единица)
heady jungle
This chat is still open? I was under impression this was over with now?
hollow dagger
This chat is still open? I was under impression this was over with now?
Yup it's over, still open though because it's still in the news
silk wren
Yup it's over, still open though because it's still in the news
I guess there will be an aftermath that might be interesting to follow. Also due to the fact that clearly negotiations are going on for wat Wagner can and will take with them to that new base just 200km north of the Ukraine border. And Wagner has had a real broad and wel equiped army, from simple guns to sofisticated aircrafts and everything in between.
pearl nest
General Surovikin has been an honorary member of CHV "Wagner" since 2017
The New York Times reports that General Surovikin could have known about Yevgeny Prigozhin's preparations for a rebellion . American officials say that the march on Moscow was probably supported by several other Russian generals.
All this is not surprising, because Sergei Surovikin and more than 30 Russian generals and officials were honorary members of the Wagner PMC . As follows from the documents at the disposal of the "Dossier", Surovikin became a "Wagnerite" back in 2017 . He was given a personal PMC badge under the number M-3744 . We also know the names of other VIP mercenaries - we will tell you about them later.
hidden portal
no it does not - any Jew in the world can go to Israel and they get instant rece...
They are not following that to the letter or the spirit.
Their are additional screening to select against too progressive jews and jews of the wrong colour...
signal thicket
we declared this topic closed, unless you want a separate discussion; I am not discussing here (mod will mop) and not on DMs. anyway, the suggestion above is not enlightening
primal marten
Thanks.
honest hemlock
hidden portal
🤷 thought it was worth noting that that specific law is often not worth the paper it's written on.
And their are somewhat hidden motives about getting more future Likud voter's into the nation
Anyway it's a discussion for #israel-palestine
white elbow
Moscow times now also reporting on Surovikin‘s arrest… https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384
honest hemlock
That's a comparatively more reliable source 👀
honest hemlock
The thing is that Alexeyev, who also recorded a video much like Surovikin's, was then seen with Prigozhin in Rostov
mellow rampart
honest hemlock
He does have a gun with him, not the thing you would usually do with a prisoner
mellow rampart
that was the sat movie*
honest hemlock
If he was arrested, it would have been after this
white elbow
The thing is that Alexeyev, who also recorded a video much like Surovikin's, was...
The article says that Surovikin behaved „not very obediently“ when asked to record the video, talking back etc. And this is how there was a suspicion that he might be in the „Prigozhin coalition“
So if the quoted source is to be believed, the video was made before the arrest
solemn light
They are not following that to the letter or the spirit.
Their are additional sc...
Can you send me a source in DMs on progressive jews getting screened? I have never heard of this, and can't find anything about it. The Shin Bet had only denied entry to 250 people in 2018 for example amidst tens of thousands of applicants., and most were muslims. With the singular exception of Peter Beinart, later repealed after a few hours, who even Likud called an administrative mistake.
Boycott, divest and sanctions supporters are also not allowed entry into Israel, for obvious reasons.
honest hemlock
Twitter
Also, please, keep things in topic, any tangent please take the initiative to DM, thanks
heady jungle
There are a few options in the area mentioned in previous chatter. The one's I c...
"The day before, the Belarusian mass media reported on the repair of a military unit in the village of Tsel (about 90 km from Minsk)."
53.395366, 28.468530
jolly sluice
I haven’t seen this talked about much in the media, but I find it absurd that lukashenko will allow an organized military force to come to a country with such a weak state and small, underequipped and demoralized military. Really seems like a recipe for a state within the state tbh
hidden portal
Or he hope to use them against protestor etc....
drifting crown
Too much show in this coup. Too much playbook.
dusky pier
I haven’t seen this talked about much in the media, but I find it absurd that lu...
The Wagners will allegedly hand in their equipment to Russia
jolly sluice
The Wagners will allegedly hand in their equipment to Russia
A. Depends on which equipments is handed in
B. Why would you keep mercenaries with no equipment? Is everybody supposed to go play internationally?
white elbow
Or he hope to use them against protestor etc....
probably also against the Kastuś Kalinoŭski people, if they are perceived as serious enough concern for Luka.
jolly sluice
I mean it might be that I’m not understanding something, but some of the underlying logic just irks me. But, maybe the simple explanation is that luko hopes to be able to use a scaled down Wagner as a counterweight to Russian influence, cash cow and regime security. If so there’s the fable of the frog and the scorpion tbh
white elbow
Grey zone telegram posted a video from a Wagner fighter, it seems to be full of the usual copium ("it was all a part of a 5D chess master plan all along!"), but among other things he claims that "serious events" are going to happen in Belarus, for which the military has to be prepared.
jolly sluice
Grey zone telegram posted a video from a Wagner fighter, it seems to be full of ...
The Wagner messaging, and that it seems like they are still recruiting, is very strange to me. You seem to have wagnerites being picked up by security services while having negotiations and deals with the govt, and that there is an understanding of something within Wagner. At this point I'm also unsure to which degree Wagner has been infiltrated by the security services and to which degree the security services have been infiltrated by Wagner
jolly sluice
I haven’t seen this talked about much in the media, but I find it absurd that lu...
And it's like. Wagner has been as been almost as big as the active forces of Belarus, and even if only 5000-10000 Wagnerites make it to Belarus, I'm not sure Belarussian military services could stand against them if they started anything or Russian would intervene against Russians to stop them
heady jungle
And it's like. Wagner has been as been almost as big as the *active* forces of B...
You're giving more credit to Wagner than they deserve. As was said, and I'm paraphrasing: It took them almost a year to advance 2 km and take Bakhmut. That's not impressive, that's hard headed, at the cost of several thousand deaths.
white elbow
You're giving more credit to Wagner than they deserve. As was said, and I'm para...
AFU is a much bigger challenge though than Belarus military, I would assume (if Wagner indeed decides to march on Minsk or something like that)
jolly sluice
You're giving more credit to Wagner than they deserve. As was said, and I'm para...
Credit and credit. I don’t think attempting what I describe above would take competence or smarts, but narcissism and viciousness.
In Bakhmut they were opposed by a motivated force supplied by the west. In Belarus they would be opposed by a demoralized force, years of corruption and neglect and a dim unpopular dictator. And possibly a Russian military that might or might not have sympathies for Wagner.
shy pine
I'm sure the Belarusian army would stiffen right up if defending their country from an external enemy
heady jungle
"The day before, the Belarusian mass media reported on the repair of a military ...
The New York Times is running with it:
Satellite Images Show Rapid Construction at a Deserted Military Base in Belarus. Is it Wagner’s New Home?
"By Tuesday, the images showed that a sports field covering approximately eight acres within the gated military facility had been transformed, packed with at least six rows of what appear to be temporary structures, like large tents. The satellite imagery also shows similar construction in open areas next to the sports field."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/world/europe/belarus-military-base-wagner-photos.html
true basin
its a rather long thread, but this also worth keeping an eye out for further clarification on, I guess
heady jungle
The New York Times is running with it:
Satellite Images Show Rapid Construction...
More chatter, now with talks of up to three camps.
https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/26997
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/17412
white elbow
Wagner continues recruiting in Russia, and apparently without signing MoD contracts: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66060392
heady jungle
Wagner continues recruiting in Russia, and apparently without signing MoD contra...
"Wagner's long list of contact points are mostly based at fight clubs, including martial arts schools and boxing clubs."
This is directly related to the mechanisms at play in the growing trend of similar extremist clubs —across the world: https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/813082873862160384
true basin
Wagner continues recruiting in Russia, and apparently without signing MoD contra...
wouldnt that technically be solved just by treating them as commodities if they are recruited to Wagner, though? so pending whatever end result of Prig / Luka / Putin they are just filtered to MoD if they go to Ukraine
honest hemlock
He already had connections with Wagner, but the idea of "secret VIP"... I think we're going to need more than this I think 😅
crisp maple
He already had connections with Wagner, but the idea of "secret VIP"... I think ...
You get a secret coin that allows you access to the bar behind Prizoghins office
But yeah curious what that is that's like, a really weird way to phrase whatever they're getting at, I don't see how that could be the best way to get any reference across unless its about an actual club.
pearl nest
> General Surovikin has been an honorary member of CHV "Wagner" since 2017
>
>...
dossiercenter has him as honorary member / почётным членом
red geyser
You get a secret coin that allows you access to the bar behind Prizoghins office
1 coin = 1 free hot dog
patent rover
Some might be interested in this.
A friend of mine just did her masters thesis on Wagner, she emailed it to me the other day but you can now read it online.
https://opal.latrobe.edu.au/articles/thesis/Exporting_Autocracy_Evgenii_Prigozhin_the_Wagner_Group_and_the_Putin_regime_s_Scramble_for_Africa/23598921/2
frigid flame
He already had connections with Wagner, but the idea of "secret VIP"... I think ...
You get access to the club lounge at major conflict zones worldwide?
Seriously though, we might have to look for a source in the original Russian. I'm guessing that's a translation artifact? CNN's reporting it as an exclusive, not sure if the originals are public anywhere yet.
frigid flame
Ah, on reading in more detail, they cite him (and 30 others) as having a personnel registration number. Setting aside the weird phrasing, that’s not that weird of a concept.
Wagner’s got traditional offices all over Russia and by corporate standards is at least a midsize company, presumably with HR, IT, etc. Obviously the Russian government is a main client. It’s not exactly terribly weird for companies to grant key partner staff access to buildings, email, IM etc.
Nor does it mean those staff have access to strategic plans or are loyal to the company; might just mean they interact with you a lot and it’s easier to not escort them every time.
honest hemlock
You get access to the club lounge at major conflict zones worldwide?
Seriously ...
Either a translation artifact or some clickbait
red geyser
If Aric can post his own tweets here, I can post my own articles; here's a comprehensive timeline of the Wagner putsch
honest hemlock
Aric is a Bcat employee tho 😛 But I don't think no one will object against you sharing that work 😉
pearl nest
The FSB of the Russian Federation received the task of killing a prigozhin - Kyrylo Budanov
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1674688895659958273
Twitter
glacial beacon
This failed coup surely has given Ukraine a fantastic chance to drive a wedge between the two
even if its not true it surely sounds plausible
royal imp
Agentstvo is saying that 7 of Prigozhin's medias are not posting any updates which is unusual behavior for them
They tried to call those medias by phone, no one answered
So, something is going on under the carpet. I suspect that either they are being shut down or they are having some hiccups before moving those assets to someone else
primal marten
This seems more of an item for #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe doesn’t it? Not related to Priggo’s Putsch.
true basin
This seems more of an item for <#709766067936821310> doesn’t it? Not related to ...
yep just me clicking wrong 🙂
heady jungle
https://medium.com/@warwatchingperson/three-to-kyiv-two-to-moscow-a-timeline-of-...
Wow, this is super impressive work. Well done and way to cite your sources. Definitely learned more than I previously knew about the incident, as well as more on chronological story telling. Nice!
royal imp
Prigozhin's media websites were blocked by Roskomnadzor, one of them published a message, saying that this media won't exist no more:
https://t.me/nevnov/57964
Rotonda said that Prigozhin's "troll factory" is done as well, base on their info from an insider:
https://t.me/rotondamedia/4745
Rybar is saying that "Concord" company won't exist no more:
https://t.me/rybar/49182
Looks like Prig's empire is pretty much done, the only thing that's left is "Wagner" leftovers, I guess
primal marten
He posted audio 20 minutes ago.
If anyone can take a listen if he mentions anything...?
royal imp
Accident super reaction 😆
And I was scrolling through his usual TG channels like crazy
primal marten
Accident super reaction 😆
And I was scrolling through his usual TG channels li...
I did that too earlier. They switched their location!
true basin
Looks like Prig's empire is pretty much done, the only thing that's left is "Wag...
you dont think they will just reemerge repackaged with new names and with a slightly adjusted course?
royal imp
you dont think they will just reemerge repackaged with new names and with a slig...
Russian MOD will probably integrate them into the army, but I have no idea what will happen with the part of Wagner which is leaving the country to Belarus/Africa/wherever else
Curious interview with Andrey Zubov - https://verstka.media/interview-andrey-zubov-o-tom-kak-vladimir-putin-mozhet-poteriat-vlast
true basin
Russian MOD will probably integrate them into the army, but I have no idea what ...
yeah thats what I imagine for the physical parts, but for the other things he deals with I would think RU would want replacements to under their control instead perhaps - but guess it depends on how much it costs, how much they are loyal to Prig etc. Will take them time if they have to start it from 0
royal imp
yeah thats what I imagine for the physical parts, but for the other things he de...
I honestly think that the experiment with sharing the monopoly on violence is over if they have got the lesson from a week ago
They knew that's a problem even before obviously, when they tried to force all those Wagner soldiers to sign contracts with MoD
true basin
They knew that's a problem even before obviously, when they tried to force all t...
yep, till be interesting to see but looks like to the overall benefit of UA - hopefully it wont get equally worse for RU civillians
mellow rampart
https://youtu.be/zYYvvdVFj8g one of the rare times he makes sense to me 😄 overall conclusion, he can't make anything out of it either... 😅
pearl nest
Twitter
pearl nest
heady jungle
https://www.svaboda.org/a/32484063.html
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/16748...
Oh how I wish I had the capital for on demand satellite imagery. It's amazing what open source researchers come across, well before big media. Let's see if they show up...
minor path
Russian MOD will probably integrate them into the army, but I have no idea what ...
Wouldn't this bring up questions on who now owns Wagner's mines and oil fields?
red geyser
Wow, this is super impressive work. Well done and way to cite your sources. Defi...
Thank you so much
royal imp
Wouldn't this bring up questions on who now owns Wagner's mines and oil fields?
Not really, technically it always was MoD
pearl nest
wagner had independent infrastructure in africa iirc
“I would also say that the Russian state has only very limited influence over the networks that Wagner has created in Africa. And the number one reason behind that is that they have an independent logistical and financial infrastructure they set up via the UAE,” added Krieg.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-rebellion-prigozhin-putin-scrambling-retain-influence-africa
kind blade
https://youtu.be/zYYvvdVFj8g one of the rare times he makes sense to me 😄 overa...
He called it a war..! 👀
kind blade
Edit: twice! 👀 👀
red geyser
https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-coup-was-staged-putin-west-fell-it-opinion-1810035 A reminder bad takes are everywhere, not just Telegram and Twitter
"Think about it: An army invades Russia, race right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn't able to? And Putin holds his military back? And then, with Moscow supposedly within his grasp, Prigozhin decides, "Oh well, never mind" and heads to Belarus?"
Genuinely universe brain level reporting here, cheers Newsweek
"And then there was the footage of Prigozhin sitting a bench in Rostov-on-Don, bantering amiably with Russia's deputy minister of defense, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and deputy head of the Russian military intelligence, the GRU, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev. It was just too chummy for a true rebellion."
"That Prigozhin is still alive, having supposedly betrayed the Russian motherland, is inconceivable under the rule of Putin, who famously said in 2019 that "treason is the biggest crime on earth" and who hunts down traitors anywhere on the globe, including in the United States." - As we all know, rebellion can occur only if a dictator wishes it
gloomy grove
Newsweek has been real disappointing for a while
toxic tiger
Some may dismiss this as another product of the “Torygraph”, but before you do, give this assessment a chance. It’s not bad in my opinion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofe_w2dVENM&ab_channel=TheTelegraph
glacial beacon
"Think about it: An army invades Russia, race right up to Moscow, and no one get...
I feel sorry for those like 13 airmen who everyone keeps brushing off as nobody.
paper spoke
I feel sorry for those like 13 airmen who everyone keeps brushing off as nobody.
Don't forget those dozens of Wagnerites the MoD killed and started the whole thing!
I mean, by now we've gotten names of all those totall-killed-for-real right?
hollow dagger
Don't forget those dozens of Wagnerites the MoD killed and started the whole thi...
You mean the ones at the Wagner base?
IMO the jury is still out on whether that actually happened or if it was just wagner staging it for pretext for the rebellion
gentle coral
is there any evidence at all that it happened?
hollow dagger
Aside from the video they put out I didn't see any but then again I haven't looked hard
heady jungle
Newsweek has been real disappointing for a while
Fact!
gentle coral
it's "only" an opinion column, but still
jolly sluice
You mean the ones at the Wagner base?
IMO the jury is still out on whether that...
It really does bear all the hallmarks of a bad fake. I think most high school film nerds could create something more convincing.
jolly sluice
There is no shred of evidence that the video is fake.
If it actually happened I would have expected:
a. A wagnerite ranting next to the bodies
b. Pictures and videos from several angles with bodies and damaged structures
c. Any supporting evidence whatsoever
d. It being cited as a reason more often by Prigozhin. Seems more important than the lack of ammunition.
I'm more unsure about the officer they arrested for trying to blow them up, that one might be real.
heady jungle
Again, no evidence.
jolly sluice
The video itself is just very strange. The fires and where the fires are looks strange and imo does not look like the aftermath of a missile attack. There are maybe one body if you squint, but not really.
What do you mean no evidence. That a missile attack occured is a positive statement, and tbh with the evidence for it now it needs more to substatiate it.
Wagner soldiers who died in the strike, more sources. Any corroboration at all. From a corporate structure that already has been disseminating disinformation for years on an industrial scale - some degree of scepticism is warranted.
orchid quail
https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-coup-was-staged-putin-west-fell-it-opinion-18100...
Written by Michael Flynns former employee at DIA.
sage widget
There is no shred of evidence that the video is fake.
This is flipping around how you do verification. You don’t prove something is fake. Instead we want to try to prove that it’s real.
dusky pier
What do you mean no evidence. That a missile attack occured is a positive statem...
Yep and as you stated, an extremist military faction that just did an obviously premeditated coup attempt is not the most reliable source
Their funniest inside joke that they proudly wear in morale patches and T shirts is a series of videos where they torture and kill people with a sledgehammer
seriously I get that they terrified Putin for a while but people really need to remember how terrible Wagner is
heady jungle
What I mean to convey is that calling something fake is as ridiculous as calling it real. There is no evidence for any way it goes, so best not to call it anything, but another bit of evidence.
solemn light
This is flipping around how you do verification. You don’t prove something is fa...
I like the sentiment, and I know we're in the age of AI where even videos can be faked, but in what world is video evidence no longer enough to prove that something happened?
Have we reached that stage yet of video evidence in our disinformation world where every video needs to be considered as inherently faked?
sage widget
well we can reframe the issue a bit. Can we find any evidence that confirms Prigozhin's version of events? For example, do we have statements from the family members of those Wagner soldiers killed by the Russian armed forces?
heady jungle
We have nothing. Just two videos. Before and after.
@brussinf showes up, does a grand tour of the place, and then they're struck. That's all we know.
Moreover, @brussinf is well viewed and it was the very first time this camp was exposed to the public.
This was a field palace.
The exact same thing just happened to a group of Russian soldiers complaining about tremendous losses to the government on video. Well, the other team saw the same video and the remaining Russians are no longer with us.
compact basin
Russian MOD will probably integrate them into the army, but I have no idea what ...
Andrey Karpatalov (duma member and former deputy minister of defense) said Wagner would not be allowed to continue operating in Ukraine if it didn’t become subordinate to the MoD, and that this is what caused the mutiny. Overall this seems reasonable, no?
(There is a link for this statement I will post here once I find it)
heady jungle
We have nothing. Just two videos. Before and after.
Part 1
heady jungle
We have nothing. Just two videos. Before and after.
Part 2
sage widget
We have nothing. Just two videos. Before and after.
Right so we can be comfortable saying that Wagner had a base in Ukraine somewhere. And that something looks like it blew up there. And that's really all the videos show us. Other than that, we are going on Prigozhin's word. which is worthless.
honest hemlock
What I mean to convey is that calling something fake is as ridiculous as calling...
That video has signs of fabrication (would link tweets deconstructing it but Twitter being dead really sucks)
Also, there's no evidence that supports the existence of that attack besides that video itself
gentle coral
That video has signs of fabrication (would link tweets deconstructing it but Twi...
adding vx before twitter.com makes integration work - for now, until Elon further breaks the API
honest hemlock
adding vx before twitter.com makes integration work - for now, until Elon furthe...
I know of vxtwitter, the problem is finding those tweets in the first place 😅
My search function is borked
Or loading into profiles
compact basin
Right so we can be comfortable saying that Wagner had a base in Ukraine somewher...
There’s also other elements in the context such as many of the aircraft Wagner shot down being unarmed EW craft, despite Prigozhin having initially claimed Wagner only fired after being fired upon, which he later retracted; which indicates the MoD didn’t give a general, centralized top-down order for its troops to target Wagner. This is all assuming the strike on the camp narrative has even any merit to it.
heady jungle
I like the sentiment, and I know we're in the age of AI where even videos can be...
After this round, it seems so.
royal imp
That's a weird "rocket strike aftermath". Some trees are broken, but grass is absolutely fine, no explosion craters (only a square pit with perfect walls and couple of campfires), no fire marks. Their acting is shit as well, by the way.
They stated that there were many victims after this attack, but there are only few body parts and 1 corpse (?) and that's it
jolly sluice
I like the sentiment, and I know we're in the age of AI where even videos can be...
Nobody has alleged that video is AI generated or manipulated. What I am saying is that we have some forest in disarray, three fires in a square hole and no clear identifiable bodies or casualties.
And that the MoD just launched a missile, and then did nothing, not even an attack on Wagner fighters elsewhere or a follow up bombing or attack, and then let Wagner march towards Moscow seems strange to say the least.
Can you put together a logical chain (even within the Russian military sense of logic) that this was the way an attack on Wagner would be planned or who would have/or ordered this attack this way? I’m not being hostile, I’m genuinely interested because I find it hard to find myself.
solemn light
No I've come around on what was written here about the video being faked and possibly even tampered, but I was wondering if this adage of videos themselves needing to be checked for tampering is going to become prevalent within OSINT research itself
thats a skill I'm not used to seeing
jolly sluice
The great Giancarlo has WITNESSED ME🛐🙏
No, as it comes to ai video. We’re still not at a point where it’s that hard to identify generated footage. Generated video is a whole other can of worms, that I think is a few years off. And then the Russian propaganda apparatus/disinformation actors would have to gain competency at using the tools and the creativity to make convincing fake photos or videos.
royal imp
I didn't see anyone say it was digitally tampered or something like that. By saying that it's fake I mean that those guys blew up couple of grenades and started couple of campfires, then dropped some body parts (real or fake ones?) and something that looks like a corpse.
jolly sluice
I’m not sure you get those people for the awful salaries and hiring processes in Russia. Just look at how embarrassingly bad their photoshops are(thinking of the fabricated plane footage from the Malaysia airlines that was an international embarrassment. You would think they would be able to do a proper photoshop before they would be able to convincingly use AI generated stuff.
solemn light
not to the point where video is fully AI generated or computer generated of course, but general tampered footage flooding osint discourse. I don't mean simple theater like what Wagner was doing
jolly sluice
The people who would believe this stuff atm would believe anything IMO. It’s still easier to just use a pic or video from somewhere else, make a hole in the ground and say something happen or just have somebody thrustworthy-ish looking say some shit
solemn light
https://twitter.com/NMukherjee6/status/1675071958793486336 like I'm used to theater, this video from the french riots claims a gorilla statue is an actual gorilla. It comes at the heels of videos of zebras running on a highway and elephants hiding in a garage (which I havent fact checked yet, but its interesting theres no news article about them)
but my question was more related to footage that was digitally edited itself. Are we at the level where we need to doubt all pieces of footage that comes to us from protests and riots now? How do we go about fact checking thoses?
pearl nest
but my question was more related to footage that was digitally edited itself. Ar...
more a question for #disinfo-and-propaganda i would think? but a good question to discuss!
jolly sluice
Yeah. But a short answer in my opinion is no; all the previous red flags still apply. Length, camera angles, context and source
drifting crown
That second video makes no sense to me
paper spoke
You mean the ones at the Wagner base?
IMO the jury is still out on whether that...
I guess Wagner not releasing and names of the "killed" in the MoD "strike" is not too strange after Prigo went to Belarus.
But that no names popped up during that whole day he was driving to Moscow to take revenge on his dead boys is maybe harder to explain. Though I haven't followed Wagner messaging so closely, do they always protect the privacy of their own?
hollow dagger
I guess Wagner not releasing and names of the "killed" in the MoD "strike" is no...
I don't know, but the timing of the whole thing was weird. The strike allegedly happened just a few hours after coincidentally a journo had arrived at the camp and released a video showing it
gentle coral
and also coincidentally just after their plot to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov failed, according to https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagners-prigozhin-planned-to-capture-russian-military-leaders-805345cf
shy pine
"And then there was the footage of Prigozhin sitting a bench in Rostov-on-Don, b...
I don't think the author of this piece has had a face to face conversation with a human being since Covid. That's the only explanation.
unique cosmos
what is interesting is everybody seems (to me) to have forgotten about months previous the milblogger statue bomb in st. petersburg. in the cafe of prigohzin...
but if you were in the mindset of these people (as in previous wagner operations, where as wagner mercenaries they staged for russia propaganda a US military fake war crimes)...
then the idea of openly staging a fake attack on wagner base, would be a way to 'send a covert (but in the open) message'.. to those other higher ups
so (for example) as a kind of retaliatory propaganda (so to speak). that is not ever going to be believed by [putin, military generals]. but serves a kind of a statecraft information warfare purpose. and to see the kremlin's muted reactions (to deny they attacked the base)
it's a bit like a role reversal sort of thing. whereby it is indeed a staged event. but in opposite direction (that they are not used to, but highlighs a sort of a gross underhanded russian criminal ways of communicating with each other)
so a bit like the mafia horses head or whatever you might say. burning bridges, or sending messages in kind (as a response to previous messages)
so the whole business of trying to verify those clearly staged scenes is: well it does not further the evaluation of the phscological side of the war game. for that you need to look at other motivations / events connected in similar timeframe / timelines. and link with psychological profile (a bit like of a serial killers and such). to actually derive some more concrete meanings / hypothesis behind those reason(s) to stage somethings like this
paper spoke
it's a bit like a role reversal sort of thing. whereby it is indeed a staged eve...
Uhh, and this is somehow related to the cafe bombing?
hollow dagger
Maybe! But thats a lot of words to say "Maybe Prigozhin faked the video as an excuse to launch his mutiny" 😅
unique cosmos
well what actually happened in the end of that whole thing with the FSB investigating it? did we ever really got to the bottom of it all?
paper spoke
it's a bit like a role reversal sort of thing. whereby it is indeed a staged eve...
I have no idea what you are trying to say here, what does "faked in the opposite direction mean" 
unique cosmos
i think in the west we assume or believe the standard of proof to bear is much higher to make as 'excuse' but in their world it's more like a "weapon" of misinformation (along with many other events in the broader timeline, all his other rantings etc)
unique cosmos
I have no idea what you are trying to say here, what does "faked in the opposite...
what i mean: to be clearer: because wagner is faking things for kremlin in past. as a tool. but this time he uses same method, but turns it back on kremlin
(in full knowledge of kremlin - that its same tactic)
(so opposite in that sense)
hollow dagger
Yeah, right, that's what we're saying, that maybe Prigozhin faked the video as an excuse to launch the mutiny.
unique cosmos
the horses head - it is not meant to convince. it's a clear message left (by one criminal to another one, referencing a past crime that both previously engaged together in as brothers. as a past shared history)
paper spoke
Ah, I see. You mean the fact they used a staged event as a pretext sends a deeper message.
unique cosmos
...i don't necessarily see it as being a required part of it all. because he himself framed it as some patriotic march for highlighting concerns.
he could have done all these things without making that false claim of the attack, and still with other justification(s)
hollow dagger
Oh ok I think I understand. Sure, maybe! It's all super speculative though.
unique cosmos
if you get my point here (sorry its a bit mind games, that they play with each other!)
phsycological games
paper spoke
he could have done all these things without making that false claim of the attac...
Not really, marching on Moscow or capturing the defence minister because artillery deliveries are unreliable is not something you can get popular support for.
And Prigo for sure needed popular support; in fact the assumption that he had it seems to be the bulk of his plan
So the staged video being sold as evidence of deep betrayal by the RU MoD was pretty necessary for the whole case, and intended to sway people outside the Kremlin to support him
pearl nest
jolly sluice
So the staged video being sold as evidence of *deep betrayal* by the RU MoD was ...
No, I don’t think so. As something to ignite the support, yes, but the average experience of members of the Russian army has been so crummy historically, and become logarithmically more crummy as the war has gone on, that anyone seen as in opposition to this or someone that can solve it almost has guaranteed support. In my mind at least.
Also I think Wagner has been a source of cash, prestige and operational advantages for higher up people. And even pretty high up in the Russian army is almost unimaginably horrible and stressful for the most of us, that they probably also have an axe to grind with whoever is seen as the source of their discomfort.
paper spoke
@jolly sluice Saying support is almost guaranteed is a bit bold considering Prigo ran the experiment for us and the result is firmly that he did in fact not have strong support outside Wagner.
I agree that the staged video had no hope of convincing people on its own, but the fact is that the structural factors that make Shoigu hated by the rank and file had were also not enough to make people rebell. I have not seen any indication that any other formations were even close to rebellion: clearly a big jolt would be needed to get people to act.
jolly sluice
<@670747448594923544> Saying support is almost guaranteed is a bit bold consider...
I mean support in the general sense. Not in the take-up-arms-sense. Approval and acceptance might be more fitting terminology for what I meant, like units allowing wagner forces to move past, not resisting and accepting the outcome if it went as it was planned for Prigozhin. (to be fair, if they had actually moved on Moscow might have been enough, and could have been planned to be enough without putting the army collaboratiors at too much risk). Also, I wonder what impact, if the reports are true, it had that they were forced to act early,in regard to getting active support.
paper spoke
Approval is even that too strong, the view from people like Galeottio and Kaufman is that the common Russians position is one of apathy and avoidance of taking sides when the "big people" fight.
jolly sluice
That is a fair view, and I think if it is the case that for many it is not even a conscious apathy about "big people", but one that is a result of how bad their conditions actually are. Languagelearner, who trains UKR soldiers in first aid, talks about the extreme disassociaton and apathy among Ukrainian soldiers if they believe they have no chance of survival in attacks and the change when they see wounded actually return from assaults. I can only imagine this kind of apathy is even worse on the Russian side.
mellow rampart
https://youtu.be/tP8VPkWXOfU with twitter down a summary from Perun
heady jungle
so the whole business of trying to verify those clearly staged scenes is: well i...
"trying to verify those clearly staged scene" is quite the statement. Do you happen to be a production designer? Can you please identify/explain/prove the "staged" component of your assertion?
Answer. No you can't.
unique cosmos
Nobody has alleged that video is AI generated or manipulated. What I am saying i...
it was in reference to other's prior earlier participation in earlier conversation here
jolly sluice
it was in reference to other's prior earlier participation in earlier conversati...
Oh i was super tired so don't take anything from yesterday seriously lmao
unique cosmos
it wasnt meant as a literal statement of a provable fact, but a commentary on those hypothesis. clearly theres 2 options you branch the hypothesis and investigate along both lines
then track backwards
in science we have an algorithmic method its called simulated annealing, local maxima
to get over a hump, to piece together (to look farther than the nose, the 1st step, because of local 'hill')
fuzzing is another term for these exploratory approach
you fuzz the data, or sift the seive
hopefully this clarifies
jolly sluice
For me to be convinced that there was a strike I would need the following evidence to be provided, at least in part:
- Confirmation of casualties, wounded etc.
- longer videos of the potential body parts and bodies
- Secondary sources
- Some explanation of motivation, process, chain of command logic from the RU army side
- How to combine the visible aspects of the video - the fires, the square hole, grass, lack of obvious craters, with what you would expect from a missile strike
For me, without any of the above provided and given the source is known to produce disinformation - I think it's pretty logical to think it's staged and have pretty high confidence in that hypothesis.
pearl nest
pearl nest
what? https://vxtwitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1675462575067131905
had a quick look, cant find anything else about a recent prig. audio message
true basin
had a quick look, cant find anything else about a recent prig. audio message
where did you check?
seems to be this message, not posted on his Concord channel its seems.... https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3813
drifting crown
June 24th
pearl nest
it says june 24 for me
true basin
so the audo clip is prob one of those posted on that channel
pearl nest
where did you check?
just some wagner channels and russia watchers, but i mean everybody would be reporting on that.
honest hemlock
Is there even evidence of that march in Novosibirsk?
true basin
just some wagner channels and russia watchers, but i mean everybody would be rep...
yeah, so prob him not being accurate, based on it not being in the news anywhere - perhaps he didnt look at the dates or something - dunno if he has any reason to deliberately be misrepresenting it
pearl nest
yeah, so prob him not being accurate, based on it not being in the news anywhere...
yep, just fell for some fake or old post i guess
true basin
yep, just fell for some fake or old post i guess
would be my guess yeah, there are a few who very deliberately dont focus on accuracy, so if he didnt verify himself and have it poisoning his news diet its prob easy mistake to make
much of social media is awful with adding their information source and also lazy to even check in the cases its included - sadly
wispy dragon
So the staged video being sold as evidence of *deep betrayal* by the RU MoD was ...
I see it not just as framing as a justification for the walk towards Moscow, but also preparing for the possibility it became successful. Say in the low likelihood he had gotten a position at the head of the MoD, it's better in the eyes of the population or other generals if it was achieved through a perceived act of retribution instead of through dirty political games.
paper spoke
One name of a killed Wagnerite has appeared, and it seems(?) it's someone killed during the march from Rostov, still no names for those killed in the alleged strike: https://infosec.exchange/@kevinrothrock/110644457755408662
drifting crown
It's unusual quiet around Prick, doesn't fit his Ego
paper spoke
He just ran a coup against Putin and lost, then made a deal to save his skin: 100% the deal includes keeping a low profile as one of the 5 first steps, with "shut up" being underlined several times. That's my guess
primal marten
I think the surprise is more that he managed to stick to that so far.
unique cosmos
my feelings is that the risk taking behaviour seems like he was sticking his neck out onto the chopping block further or sooner that he ideally wanted to. that he was forced to play his hand earlier and not under ideal circumstances
so this is why i dont like the assumptions or narrative that he made some gross error(s) if this was the case then trying to operate as best as possible under non-ideal circumstances would lead to more convincing sets of explanations
without a more complete broader history actions-reactions of both sides on a more extended duration timeline
then you simply cannot otherwise 'make enough sense of it all' that a significant proportion of the actions are these guys mistrusting one another. and playing games of who is thinking what
prighozin himself surely made errors along the way and/or was in a difficult state of thinking how to proceed. his own public statements also seemed a bit different in the sense they were more reserved and less fully commital than coming from the wagner pmc online media representations
you you then might question also how prighozin's ability to keep enough control of his own wagnerites (or his belief of being more fully in control). when they were shooting things out of the sky etc.
so in that loss of command control (during) he diminished his own position of credibility to maintain his position of criticising the poor management of russian military by the top brass, the shoigu. which was the key element emboldening the whole operation
but for me the more interesting question is whether the contract signing deadline for the military really was the tipping point alone. that he deemed as being enough of a direct personal threat onto himself. ^when he has other business dealings than wagner, not to loose control of military side of wagner operations, which protects his own personal security
because the other likely factor is him becoming increasingly aware that putin/fsb/kremlin had already put out a hit contract onto him at some point in the timeline before he decided upon these course of action. or if both were major pressures or factors together: one matter for himself, to try and figure out out who in kremlin had actually put out the hit on him, because he didnt want to believe it was putin, plus the contract signing for wagner, as an organization
because both things can be true, and would he have included certain specific actions without one or the other threat categories
now that is in parts a bit too speculative side. however in other parts there is pretty strong logic and circumstantial information based on so many facts based events out there. which is quite difficult to interpret in other ways, without resort back to the 'well people are incredibly stupid' argument. or that people behave very much unpredictably when under fears / pressure / when they are frightened. or institutionally part of a regime that in such ways affects their behaviours to seem pretty odd
drifting crown
And I'm still behind the bookclub readings 🙈
Do I'm still thinking that this *coup isn't over and never in 100 cold years I think that a billi guy like Prigo will shut up and lick Putins boots. He's a man addicted to power and money. If he's still alive.
honest hemlock
dusky pier
What does he say?
white elbow
"I'm sure that you will see our next victories on the frontlines soon" is the most interesting part
pearl nest
https://t.me/grey_zone/19396
pearl nest
"I'm sure that you will see our next victories on the frontlines soon" is the mo...
lets see what frontlines exactly he means.
kind blade
lets see what frontlines exactly he means.
There's only one front line that concerns Ru population. If he announces some big win in Mali, CAR or Sudan in few weeks time as evidence to back up that claim -- well, I just can't see it.
unique cosmos
maybe of those 3 sudan is the only one which is the relevant / applicable?
[if any, could be none]
crisp maple
Applicable to all 3, those 3 nations they're all there providing actual support to their militaries
unique cosmos
i was aware, but in terms of some sizeable [active] conflict, that the statement seems to allude to
"frontlines" or something. maybe is a bit too vague
pearl nest
Interview with Soldatov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLCC2SkBHNI
He says the Russian army's "wait and see" approach during the Wagner mutiny has unsettled power holders within the apparatus. "The biggest threat is not Prigozhin per se, but the reaction of the army and the security services," Soldatov told DW's Sarah Kelly. "The people who were put in charge of providing political stability for Putin's regime did absolutely nothing" when Wagner mercenaries took over the military headquarters in Russia's southern city of Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin has reportedly fled to sanctuary in Belarus despite a pledge of amnesty from Putin. But how big of a threat remains and what will happen next? "Putin is really good at conducting repressions," Soldatov said.
unique cosmos
according to one of several speculations, prighozin may be keeping a plan in place... such that materials would get realeased on others should anything happen to him https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOZeu_QCEVc
so my question is: how to we get our hands on those material(s) ??111?1?1?1 😋
pearl nest
hollow dagger
Hi all! I think we should lock this channel soon. Maybe in the next few days. What do you think?
pearl nest
why not leave it open and broaden the scope a bit to cover russias increasing internal struggles. like the belarus political / military situation channels.
honest hemlock
I think that this story can be integrated back into #russia-ukraine-eastern-europe
Or what miles suggests
But it should rather be in #1052699912367767684 and forum posts can't be moved
drifting crown
Open. That story isn't over.
pearl nest
Open. That story isn't over.
also this: we are just beginning to see the aftermath of the mutiny.
hollow dagger
Well, it seems to me like the thread was more for the actual minute-by-minute play of the mutiny itself, and now that it's over and we're just discussing the aftermath that something else
paper spoke
Yeah, would be very unsatisfying to close it before its obvious we'll not get more clarity on what the heck happened
hollow dagger
Maybe we can rename it? "Russia Military Coulp [Aftermath]"
paper spoke
Sure
Is the concern that people might see the current title and think a new one is on?
drifting crown
Tricky
hollow dagger
I guess my concern is that the theme of the post has changed. But if we change the title I think that should fix it?
paper spoke
so my question is: how to we get our hands on those material(s) ??111?1?1?1 😋
My question is: who would he be threatening with this info, Putin? Peskov? Gerasimov? Shoigu? Only Putin seems like he would matter, but what sort of information would threaten him but be unusable during the coup?
paper spoke
I guess my concern is that the theme of the post has changed. But if we change t...
To be pedantic I'd say it is more the character of the information has changed rather than the theme itself. But I agree the feel of the channel is very different now that it's not about minute by minute updates about troop positions
unique cosmos
if the original intent of the thread was live updates maybe next time include something to allude to that intent as a label to be part of the thread name itself?
for example: if i create a thread to discuss a movie, i will append [spoilers] to the end of the thread name at the time of creation. so is this the only regular reason to make such label? or one of a broader set of several typical labels?
unique cosmos
My question is: who would he be threatening with this info, Putin? Peskov? Geras...
well this is very easily the case given what we already assuredly know (hard evidence) about multiple historical wagner dirty operations. if those things which are also by their necessary nature are self incriminating (for both himself prighozin and putin, his old buddy in crime). if the purpose of those compromat is as a personal defense mechanism / insurance policy. whatever would actually comes out if prighozin is killed. then (as a deceased) he would no longer have to worry nearly as much about how it would be compromising his own living ambitions for the purposes of gaining greater political power within any such multary coop, and/or broader political designs. (while he could still reasonably expect that posthumously, his memory might remain "somewhat" regarded as a sort of an evil hero character at least within his own much more loyal and dirty circle of mercenary wagnerites, and also enjoy some other 'less politically compatible' warlord style reputations of 'getting stuff done' in the history books
i would not rabbit on about this but for the fact that these matters will (inescapably) one way or the other have to get written down into the history books
but that is one of a few more straightforward answers. *however there are also potentially several other possible and reasonable / tractable answers (which then require other sets of assumptions / lines of hypothesis to actually be true, or to be one of multiple lesser factors affecting an overall decision)
pale venture
I think it's time to close the thread. Should things heat up again, that'll take a different form and a new thread can start then
heady jungle
Hi all! I think we should lock this channel soon. Maybe in the next few days. Wh...
Yes, can we please go back to: https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/709766067936821310
silk wren
Change the titel to the suggested aftermath. Because he is just 200 km out of the north border of Ukraine. He promised to show a load of victory’s who knows where. And most of all. If there is an interesting aftermath, all info from the start is within one story.
fresh belfry
If we are changing the name I suggest mutiny instead of coup
silk wren
If we are changing the name I suggest mutiny instead of coup
It was an actual uprise against authority’s at the very end. But. Whats in the name ?
fresh belfry
Every coup is a mutiny but not every mutiny is a coup, better to use language which clearer
It's entirely possible it was an attempted coup, but that is guesswork right now
orchid quail
primal marten
I think it's time to close the thread. Should things heat up again, that'll take...
I agree. (Plus I secretly want to be the one to start Russian Coup II: Electric Boogaloo, but don’t tell anyone. 😉)
pale venture
Now we'll all be racing to get there first
primal marten
(It's been done with a Trump thread already. Don't let me lead you astray.)
silk wren
Well. Lets say this as aftermath. Prigozhin got his millions back that FSB confiscated last Sunday. More so. reed this: . Putin's "generosity" knows no limits: Prigozhin received back all the weapons confiscated during searches.
Terrorist Prigozhin personally arrived in St Petersburg on July 4 and was given back all weapons confiscated after the search, according to Russian media.
The meeting allegedly took place in the building of the FSB's Directorate for St Petersburg and Leningrad Region on Liteyny Prospect. The head of mercenaries who arranged the military rebellion was given two Saiga semi-automatic rifles, a rifled Austrian Steyr Mannlicher carbine, an AR-15–style rifle and several other rifles and pistols.
Moreover, Prigozhin was allegedly given back his Glock pistol, which was awarded to him by Shoigu.. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1676610365256351746?s=46.
Now. They call him terrorist. But they let him fly in. Have a meeting. Gets his personal armory back. His millions back. And let him take of again. ??
Now. I call that the aftermath of one big theatrical drama for the crowd. Lets go back and look how Roston on Don was at saterday morning. How it ended on saterday evening. And what is going on just yesterday. Aint that weird ? 🤔
And he is receiving is money back found by the FSB at his headquarters. Now. This is becoming more and more a setup scenario to legalize his move to Ukraine. He probably will be there the fifth column. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1676193335231258625?s=46 Prigozhin received back the money found during searches in his office in St. Petersburg
The Russian newspaper Fontanka reports that the law enforcers initially had no intention of returning the money they found - 10 billion rubles [$111 million], hundreds of thousands of dollars, and five bars of gold.
However, according to the source, "a force majeure circumstance intervened...". According to preliminary reports, Prigozhin was in Moscow that weekend, attending some meetings.
Instead of the owner of Wagner PMC, his driver arrived to pick up the billions with an official power of attorney.
Did it look like it was Putin's personal order?
I suppose Prigozhin might have some compromising information about Putin, since after an armed mutiny he gets away with it and gets his money back. Will he use it to sponsor his next rebellion?
Yeah. They call him terrorist. Well. I suspect that is what he was and what his future will be.
primal marten
Nothing on the bars of gold and bricks of suspicious white substance?
heady jungle
"Footage of searches in the mansion and office of Yevgeny Prigozhin."
#russia-ukraine-eastern-europe message
unique cosmos
And he is receiving is money back found by the FSB at his headquarters. Now. Th...
option 1) - (factor) a significant compromat on putin himself
I suppose Prigozhin might have some compromising information about Putin, since after an armed mutiny he gets away with it and gets his money back
well... what other hypothesis actually matches closely enough the reality?
it seems to me like there was [during] some set(s) of back-forth negotiations. and with what else can Prihozhin negotiate his position for such concessions? otherwise if the coup was (genuinely) some pre-approved propaganda operation. what were the true objective(s)
if the point was to quell any possibilit(ies) of a real rebellion by pre-empting a fake rebellion well... i fell into same exact trap of assuming that earlier on. but instead about those first moscow drones flew over the kremlin. yet that even turned out to be (*either more likely or the most likely) partisans / rebellion group supported by ukraine launching the drones
option 2) if there is no significant compromat in the mix
then what convincingly was the objective to let prighozin run his mouth and encourage similar so broadly amongst milbloggers? to "fake use" prighozin as a tool or instrument to shake out disloyal officials within the kremlin / moscow / military structures?
option 2b) factor (more realistic)
it seems like distinctions would be more timeline based. as to whether such plans were happy accidents to paint over things afterwards. or whether convenient stories are then told to putin to cover asses with the hedging of bets. so then it becomes more complex webs of intention to untangle. for the sake of saying that putin and prighozin were all in it together all along. when really one of the most critical factors was a lack of direct communications between these two individual
so whichever way you paint it. they were not on talking terms with one another. and the side very clearly refusing to be reaching out was putin. leaving prighozin to figure out the tea leaves based on all else / everything-but-that
unique cosmos
it seems to me like there was [during] some set(s) of back-forth negotiations. a...
so yes - this matter of from whom that the money back had to be released back from is really the point requiring the most clarity. if not putin then who else for such levels of compromat would prighozin have dossiers on? the entire kremlin, every single key official / the lot of them? (or just putin, or just select officials that actually were relevant and matters for this eventualities). and if not actually a dossier or compromat (of evidence). then what else can be? other than some other type of future personal threat [for example to family members abroad etc]. could then instead be the required leverage? in order to change the mind of such key officials within the chain [below] putin and exclude putin?
possible reason 3) system is just so dysfunctional
- that the superficial legal claims, that is for paying wagner troops is all regarded as true, and duty to return monies. is that more credible sounding?
possible reason 4)
brand new (very recent) negotiations (after was the money seizure etc.) during which wagner has promised to conduct new operation(s). and requires those monies to do so. which may also include 3) (backpay to retain and keep troops on), and so those money had to be released by such necessity
overall i would say the most telling evidence still remains at earlier points during a broader timeline. given the knock-on effects. and also a strong possibility that so many participants (officials) needing to spin matters for their own self-preservation. you would get some clearer picture the further back in time you go to analyze / to make the initial starting point
we can also wait for 'wagner's new surprise' too. however by the time this becomes public, that is more time for new stories to be spun (at the leisure of kremlin, ...they seem to be somewhat preoccupied of late?)
kind blade
BBC radio just reported (quoting Reuters) that Lukashenko has said Prigozhin is back in St Petersberg. Sounds as if lukeshenko is implying his trio is more than a quick there-and-back to pick up some favourite T shirts he forgot to pack. What's he playing at? Seems extraordinarily dangerous
gritty meadow
It in the news here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-leader-lukashenko-says-prigozhin-is-back-russia-2023-07-06/
unique cosmos
so... the popcorn machine has finally had enough days in order to refuel itself with another batch? 🍿
my new expectation: prigohzin has privately apologised to putin for misreading certain situation(s), and they have has some period of back-forth so so, mended some ties. also prighozing seem's to have fairly deeply regretted (at a personal level) those downing of Russian Airforce craft(s), and privately acknowledged ne needs to reign in his own wagnerite troops a tighter leash (and so on).
if you want to poo poo this, then please provide more credible alternative theories. because moscow isn't seems like the ones to be volunteering such embarassments in such public fashion(s) in direct disclosures
instead we have [indirectly] these stuff. he flys back a lot into russia, the cash returned all back such things
drifting crown
You really clogg this channel and wth means poo poo this.
unique cosmos
i should self-sensor more?
then you won't see very much representation of these viewpoint(s)
drifting crown
No worries, I find a solution. But your blogging is hard to read. Still don't know what poo poo means..lol
unique cosmos
then why use a term which you do not in fact actually understand?
primal marten
then why use a term which you do not in fact actually understand?
She is asking what it means. And also asking if you can make your texts more readable.
pearl nest
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-security-crisis-wagner-rebellion
https://archive.ph/KEXuu
royal imp
<https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-security-crisis-wagner-...
There's a common scenario with FSB btw, right after they fuck up - in the following weeks there are 100500 news like "FSB caught a group of terrorists with shitton of weapons and explosives!". In some cases it looks like they just breaking into some immigrants' flats and setup all of this evidence.
Just read this morning:
https://t.me/istories_media/2983
pearl nest
interesting, makes sense if you want to try to show you are still capable of doing stuff.
royal imp
The same happened after SPb subway bombings, Crimea bridge explosion, etc. etc.
unique cosmos
She is asking what it means. And also asking if you can make your texts more rea...
ah: i myself did not parse 'wth' (but should have, an accepted term). anyhow those criticism valid / acknowledged to a larger part. without others being active here then my verbosity level setting maybe often not works? whateover? it's like either 1-2, then there is a huge gap. then 8-12. (and at times such is the quality may dip too low). my apologies so sorry to subject those unduly opinions / speculations :too much:. an agreed perspective
(b/c it looked like "with", a typo)
too terse vs too verbose. the middle ground always to meet
hollow dagger
too terse vs too verbose. the middle ground always to meet
Yeahh for sure! I think most people are used to short messages on Discord rather than long ones
unique cosmos
if you use a phone *touchscreen, it's like SMS. (i use a PC / keyboard). These are common asymmetries in this world. I have promised to try a bit harder in future.
royal imp
I personally don't mind about long messages, but I see no point in trying too hard to try and guess what's going on under the carpet/trying to get into other people's heads by a distance
unique cosmos
phone view is going to be far more annoyed by that (compared to on a large monitor)
it's understandable
pearl nest
hajun rejects lukashenkos statements:
https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1676925309780672513
https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1676925313010266113
royal imp
hajun rejects lukashenkos statements:
https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/16769...
I find it funny how Lukashenko constantly repeats "hey guys, no need to worry about these Wagnerites", when I see no one actually ask about this.
verbal pasture
I like this channel for Prigozhin related news, ongoing as it is. I don't mind seeing people here speculate on Putin/Prigozhin/others' motives. It's a natural analytical activity to try to make sense of things.
royal imp
I find it funny how Lukashenko constantly repeats "hey guys, no need to worry ab...
Actually, I've asked one Belarussian guy this question and he told me that Lukashenko doesn't talk with people during all this "no need to worry about Wagner" messages, he's supposedly speaking with his own siloviki - KGB, police, army, etc. They could get nervous about Prigozhin's forces in their country for many reasons - Wagnerites can try to get some parts of the budget pie, they can try to get some political power, they can bring chaos to Belarus similar with Prigozhin's mutiny. So he's saying that Luka doesn't care if people are getting nervous or not, but his siloviki are actually getting nervous and he's trying to calm them down.
heady jungle
Actually, I've asked one Belarussian guy this question and he told me that Lukas...
"In the Russian political lexicon, a silovik is a person who works for any state organisation that is authorised to use force against citizens or others."
unique barn
It seems that Prigozhin's jet tail# RA-02795 left Moscow this morning and turned off transponder NE of Tambov (as per flightradar24 records)....The question was posed to me if this was his first flight without transponder since the rebellion....I don't know because I don't have paid subscription to flightradar24......But I thought it was an interesting question.
hollow dagger
It seems that Prigozhin's jet tail# RA-02795 left Moscow this morning and turned...
It's quite common for this hit and other private jets to have missing/incomplete data on fligh tracking sites, including flightradar24
It's possible that missing data on a flight track is the result of the aircraft's ADS-B transponder being turned off, but that's not the only reason. Regular boring ol' "out of range of receiving antenna on the ground" could be a reason for this as well
unique barn
Agreed. But thought I would mention since (to my recollection) all his other flights (to Minsk, then St Pete, then Moscow etc) had full flight paths....But yes, it is true that there are various technical reasons that flightradar loses the track. Thank you tho 🫡
honest hemlock
I'm looking at his history in adsbexchange and it's only showing the beginning of his flights departing from St Petersburg, going to either Moscow or Minsk
Or arriving to it
royal imp
500-600 wagnerites are being moved by planes from CAR to Moscow - https://t.me/meduzalive/87415
gritty meadow
if you want to poo poo this, then please provide more credible alternative theor...
Someone responded that it was on the radio and therefore provided a link to where it was also available online. I thought it might be important enough in this situation for people to read about it. However, I haven't looked into it further as I may have misunderstood something.
unique barn
I'm looking at his history in adsbexchange and it's only showing the beginning o...
Yes, you're right. I had been thinking of the earlier flights (previous week)...but yes several of the flights recently have missing data. Sorry for the confusion.
kind blade
How reliable is Meduza thought to be? 500 Wagnerites fly8ngbto Modvow seems like an even bigger "wtf?" than Prigozhin returning to St Petersberg
heady jungle
How reliable is Meduza thought to be? 500 Wagnerites fly8ngbto Modvow seems like...
Meh...
kind blade
A third possibility for Prigo returning- apart from a raprochment with Putin or simply taking a huge risk: perhaps he thinks Putin's forgiven him, but will shortly have a nasty surprise
pearl nest
How reliable is Meduza thought to be? 500 Wagnerites fly8ngbto Modvow seems like...
meduza just quotes this outlet: https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1461101/politique/exclusif-centrafrique-wagner-rapatrie-plusieurs-centaines-dhommes/
Exclusive – Central African Republic: Wagner repatriates several hundred men
Two weeks after the aborted rebellion of Evgueni Prigojine in Russia, the big maneuvers could have started in the ranks of Wagner in the Central African Republic. Several hundred mercenaries left Bangui for Moscow on July 6 and the future of Vitali Perfilev is very uncertain. Revelations.
According to information from Jeune Afrique, several hundred Wagner mercenaries (up to 500 to 600) have left Bangui in recent hours. These were demobilized in particular from Birao, Sido and Batangafo. Two flights left Mpoko airport in the Central African capital and flew to Moscow, Russia. Another Ilyushin plane stands ready in Bangui.
pearl nest
meduza just quotes this outlet: https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1461101/politique/e...
earlier reports: https://twitter.com/alleyesonwagner/status/1676913609664872449
pearl nest
earlier reports: https://twitter.com/alleyesonwagner/status/1676913609664872449
Twitter
orchid quail
orchid quail
https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1676856339576782849?
“Yevgeny Prigozhin's "dummy identities" leaked to the Internet, which he could use to work PMCs outside of Russia The media write that they found during searches in his house. Now users are actively discussing them and joking. For example, they offer to choose "what kind of Prigogine are you today." Yesterday it became known that during the searches the businessman was found to have many wigs and several passports with different names.”
These Mister Bean level disguises are dumb enough to be believable
unique cosmos
this was quite an interesting way to end an interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H08GtMi1vSs
unique cosmos
pearl nest
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/06/yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-wagner-rebellion/
https://archive.ph/Q7Klt
silk wren
Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin doesn't know where Prigozhin is.
"We don't follow his movements, we have neither the means nor the wish to do so" - Peskov stated during a briefing.
It's great that Russian authorities don't really care about a person who launched an armed mutiny against them.
Previously, Lukashenko mentiohed Prigozhin is not on Belarus territory, probably in St Petersburg.
So where is he exactly? With the money, weapons, and Wagner mercenaries? https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1676933793435795458?s=46
dusky pier
The "we have neither the means nor the wish" might be somewhat inaccurate on both counts
dusky pier
Yeah. I know a soft Putin supporter from Russia and he always goes "Peskov 'isn't aware of' XYZ, what a joke"
ornate rock
Is it possible he wanted out of the contract with Russia entirely and figured that making a giant scene was the best way to do it without getting murdered and have his men labeled as deserters?
orchid quail
Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin doesn't know where Prigozhin is.
"We don't follo...
I think a baseline for Kremlinology is if they say something affirmatively its really the opposite thing many times.
pearl nest
https://vxtwitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1677567464161288194
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/world/europe/belarus-wagner-base-lukashenko.html
heady jungle
Cross-post from #1113364002756644874 where nobody except me is active in 😞
Twitter
unique cosmos
Surely Kremlin decision making process must be now:
1) Winging it - To kindda wing it, in terms of both any efforts in partially dissolving and re-making all of the Wagner assets, and also keeping [partially] other remanants of Wagner in place. to keep on fulfilling certain specific interests (which cannot be replaced yet, or in the near term / foreseeable).
_
2) Keep Remenants If Moscow comes out against Wagner [as an organisation] publicly as an illegitimate terrorist organization. that is all well and good, except they need a remnants to cover both their existing asses + serve as a type of open deception. for the public to keep distracted by. whilst they move necessary assets elsewhere
Which is complex, and takes some significant time / new and ongoing efforts
_
3) Prighozin - Then entagled into this mess, is the [somewhat] distinct question of how entrenched progohzin himself actually is at an individual level within these pre-existing multiple structures / multiple interests. and how to chop off the head / replace it entirely. without the head detonating in front of them like some sort of an expolsives vest that is strapped onto him
_
1-3) Necessary Timeframe - The timeframe has to be over quite a few weeks, surely? for this stage to be playing out? assuming that nothing untoward happens to Prigohzin 'too soon' and he remains in the wind
_
4) Surovikin? If several weeks is indeed the minimum necessary timeframe for those broader sprawling activities dealing with Wagner as an organization (and it's up to 60? proxies). Then it would look increasingly suspicious if Surovikin did not resurface at some point during this process? [of some several weeks] ? If not in [any sort] of a fashion. Or convincing enough explanations made. Then this matter would indeed be increasingly a more suspicious matter? *(quite unlike the whereabouts of Prigohzin, which can be explained away far more readily).
_
unique cosmos
That was a general summary (reading back) for what i got from the recent general reporting. However except for keeping a lookout for Surovikin. Which is getting a bit forgotten. (and no more high profile news). So all those statements from family members etc.
5) Wagner Families? Another significant matter to reconsider is: Wagner families. Because there was indeed some sort of quite early reporting (but vague, perhaps not confirmed?). About pressure being applied to families of Wagner members. However this matter also is no longer being given much mention (at least in prime time news). As we now have photos of funny wigs, fake passports etc. With which to distract our curiosities with.
_
This very last point because it seems to remain a rather critical potential lever(age) that Moscow could wield, to bring to bear onto dealing with those necessary points 1-3). So would not it be worthy of some attention?
It is really being asked an open-ended question. Those last 4-5) above ^^
silk wren
This is a load of “if than else” statements based on if this might be true than that could a-pear to be true with all that might be considered. As if after this all assumed, that Bellingcat was based on open source items which could be thoroughly scrutinized on their merits. This above questions and thoughts are presented as conclusions and summing thoughts on, about and from posts in here without the foundations of those sources mentioned. I think this is also steering in to a direction of theory and thoughts. And to my honest opinion, that is not the best way to gather all facts and evidence on the matter. As all is still very unclear in developments. Like Belarus is silent. Russia has no real news at the moment. But in Syria Wagner seems to be, or is attacked by Russian and Syrian forces. And at the same time Wagner seems actively retreating its troops from Africa https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1677468665837395968?s=46
Twitter
Twitter
Can this be confirmed by another source ? As it seems that this might be a direct result of negotiations between Prigozhin his step down of his march to Moscow and the Russia authority’s. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1677658002508136449?s=46
hazy glacier
Can this be confirmed by another source ? As it seems that this might be a dire...
haven't heard this, but you're right in wanting to find a corroborating source for something gerashchenko posts.
unique cosmos
hmm. i did ignore syria-wagner news for a reasonable enough reason... wheras this general fella a bit more interesting. and also in regards to those pre-existing relationships
oh right.. he is a colnel and not a general. (but as it may be, besides the point)
primal marten
oh right.. he is a colnel and not a general. (but as it may be, besides the poin...
(He's a three-star general)
unique cosmos
ah ok. so it's all generals category tier posts. (a colonel-general is a type of a general)
unique cosmos
wagner has now responded (not prigohzin, but wagner) https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2023-07-08-the-fighters-are-still-on-holiday--wagner-commander--soon-we-will-move-to-belarus.rklFRixvt3.html
aparrently this was from the official wagner telegram channel. (being quoted from)
primal marten
Here’s the full article (translated): https://telegra-ph.translate.goog/EHksklyuzivnoe-intervyu-s-Lotosom-chto-zhdet-CHVK-Vagner-07-07?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
slender oriole
I sense a lot of bitterness towards the state, towards institutions at the end of that article there, yet he also say's he's ready to come home and defend the motherland, if they come to their senses kinda thing. Lotsa contrasts. You can definitely see the appeal of wagner from all that though, a life in the military without all the usual bull.
unique barn
haven't heard this, but you're right in wanting to find a corroborating source f...
I hope this is not too off-topic, but I did catch Gerashchenko mis-attributing a very anti-Putin quote to (a)strelkovii (Gurkin on tele) when the quote had been posted to the (a)strelkovii account (and was not made by Gurkin).....it seems that the attribution part of the post had been photo editted...(I can provide the post of that research if anyone cares).....just sayin: Gerashchenko is kinda disinfo sometimes 🫡
pearl nest
Can this be confirmed by another source ? As it seems that this might be a dire...
rybar reported in june that teplinsky runs the "SMO":
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/28/europe/russia-military-wagner-mutiny-analysis-intl/index.html
[Rybar] also suggested that while the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, remains formally in charge of what Russia calls the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the commander of airborne forces (VDV) Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky is actually running the war.
Teplinsky is well regarded by subordinates, according to observers, but the VDV endured heavy losses in the opening phase of the invasion.
There is no way to verify Rybar’s allegations, but their airing may demonstrate a level of apprehension in the Russian military in the light of the mutiny.
silk wren
rybar reported in june that teplinsky runs the "SMO":
https://edition.cnn.com/20...
Rybar is for me not a real reliable source. ( prove me wrong ). Howe ever. It is a confirmation. But might also be one of a dubious kind of conformation that emphasize the false flag of the issue itself. So i will see it at this moment in time as a confirmation with a pound of salt added to it. 🤔
pearl nest
yeah, for me neither.
heady jungle
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1677754477959430145?s=46
Their air defense is working, which may indicate somewhere within Ukraine striking distance.
heady jungle
Image one is from the march to Moscow, image two is from the Tweet. The comments in the tweet suggest this is old video from the march 00:00:49. Seeing what other matches there are. One thing is this image, another thing is the active air defense. More to follow...
I believe it was from the march.
Images from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7S9wnKHbiI
silk wren
Their air defense is working, which may indicate somewhere within Ukraine striki...
As stated before in this message ( #1121882157414100993 message. ) . Their location should be around just 200 km above the northern Ukraine borderlines in Belarus. The fact this group of armed personnel had learned to be as paranoia as this looks like with active radar from their march that saterday. As column they are vulnerable on those roads. Get the first. Take the last and wipe out all between was how Ukraine won the first attack at the first days.
pearl nest
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kremlins-wagner-shake-up-rattles-nerves-in-africa-middle-east-8c917a97
https://archive.ph/byeAm
paper spoke
One more instance of "you know what, never mind, let's keep it as is" it seems: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1678283232234569728
honest hemlock
Twitter
Linking the tweet as the news article embeds something different for some reason
silk wren
That would have been five days after the insurrection/ revolt/mutiny. At the 29 of june. https://twitter.com/dd_geopolitics/status/1678353678217129986?s=46
honest hemlock
Yep, and Prigo's plane appears to be returning from Moscow to SPB on the 29th late at night https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=140aeb&lat=57.458&lon=30.211&zoom=4.9&showTrace=2023-06-29&trackLabels
silk wren
crisp maple
Good ol Trest
I made a semi-joke list with some probabilities in that regard but they do come closer to being probable the more information we get
kind blade
Just when it seems the story can't get any more bananas,.. short interview about this twist w/Anne Applebaum on BBC radio, starts about 42 mins in: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001npbl
silk wren
During the Prigozhin mutiny, the Wagnerites intended to seize nuclear weapons located at the Voronezh-45 base - GUR
the "Wagnerians" advanced much further into the depths of Russia than was initially thought;
the track of one of the groups of "Wagneri" "cut off" about 100 km from the nuclear base "Voronezh-45"; the "Wagner" fighters went much further, to the base itself, intending to take possession of small Soviet-era nuclear devices to "raise the stakes" of their insurgency;
the only barrier between the "Wagnerians" and nuclear weapons was the door to the nuclear storage;
the storage door was closed, and they did not get to the technical part.
Follow the link to see the interview. During the Prigozhin mutiny, the Wagnerites planned to seize nuclear weapons located at the Voronezh-45 base https://twitter.com/chiefdi_ukraine/status/1678701954271158272?s=46
honest hemlock
I'd take that with a huge pinch of salt, seems information warfare from Ukraine (they are heavily exploiting the special U-turn operation)
red geyser
Follow the link to see the interview. During the Prigozhin mutiny, the Wagneri...
Budanov is not a reliable source
frankly it's better to just completely ignore what he says than take it at face value
primal marten
My comment about the Nordstream meeting at the UN just now: https://vxtwitter.com/subtleknife00/status/1678850787403808769
honest hemlock
drifting crown
My comment about the Nordstream meeting at the UN just now: https://vxtwitter.co...
I can your tweet on the browser but not on the app 😕
silk wren
Confirmation on equipment. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1679139924367269894?s=46
silk wren
Another source to confirm the transit. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1679208030200647680?s=46
drifting crown
They use all the same source
pearl nest
https://youtu.be/RuaNbsuC_G4
good analysis as always with her
royal imp
Kots posted this video an ~hour ago, he's saying that it's Wagner being relocated to somewhere else via M4 highway. They are moving towards Moscow right now, with police escort.
pearl nest
https://twitter.com/mike_eckel/status/1679425329457160192
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-detained-several-senior-military-officers-in-wake-of-wagner-mutiny-35a696e4
https://archive.li/7EEN0
Twitter
royal imp
https://twitter.com/mike_eckel/status/1679425329457160192
https://www.wsj.com/ar...
If there will be a second try, but with some general as a head of it - I suspect it will be on a completely different level than Prigozhin's walk.
silk wren
Would this column be the Wagnerites that signed in to Russia ? Is there more info available. And what is in mean time traveling towards Belarus as been spoken of. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1679420400344924162?s=46
pearl nest
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1679462945598701568
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/friction-confusion-among-russian-leadership-since-mutiny-us-general-2023-07-13/
Twitter
pearl nest
Would this column be the Wagnerites that signed in to Russia ? Is there more in...
propably needs to be verified before speculation on the what and why makes sense
royal imp
Would this column be the Wagnerites that signed in to Russia ? Is there more in...
I've posted this a bit earlier, as I understand, Kots was the source for this one
honest hemlock
Twitter
silk wren
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1679773287671316480
Gerashchenko claims and translates the same in this tweet. But with what looks like the original messages. It looks like Putin is slowly taking back the stage. But. Is this a sign of the internal struggle for power? . And the start of his defeat as we have seen Honecker did in 1987 and 1988 ? Or is it the first more successful grip on the Russian theatre and fields of power. While his messages in this case are very contradictionary in the past weeks. He stated before that Wagner was fully and totaly financed by Russia. So. Who is financing something that does not exist 🤔 https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1679748205343383553?s=46
silk wren
Funny. The moment Putin’s declaration of non existence of Wagner. This turns up 🥳🥳🥳. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1679783921939087360?s=46
honest hemlock
Would be great if he provided the original source
white elbow
Would be great if he provided the original source
Seems to be here: https://t.me/rsotmdivision/8946
the original is claimed to be "in one of the chats", I assume private ones
drifting crown
Funny. The moment Putin’s declaration of non existence of Wagner. This turns up ...
The story isn't over
pearl nest
Seems to be here: https://t.me/rsotmdivision/8946
first visual for quite some time iirc
silk wren
This is a retweet by Dimitri. About the same question that i had immediately after Putin stated that Wagner did not exist. I am starting to think he payed for some very expensive pancakes 🤔. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1679837194402373632?s=46.
silk wren
https://vxtwitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1679828488830828549
And how is it possible that an non excising organization train regular troops ? 🤔
pearl nest
red geyser
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/14/7411314/ I would like to see confirmation on this
honest hemlock
pearl nest
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/14/7411314/ I would like to see confi...
here you go: #1059264236947243108 message
silk wren
https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1680121226629398530
Is this a confirmation ? https://twitter.com/ukrinform/status/1680163547773390849?s=46
Translated. Wagner troops are leaving for Belarus.
silk wren
jagged falcon
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680524757211533312?s=46
There's a mistake in video description. This video was captured in Mogilev region on P43 route.
Source from Gomel monitoring group: https://t.me/flagshtok/10864
Source from Belarusian Hajun: https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7105
You can see a road sign "Lebedzeuka" and "Bezuevichi", which are located in Mogilev region
silk wren
silk wren
This came in. Like to see another confirmation. More since there were wagner columns entering Belarus. And camps were made ready there. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1681269641950232579?s=46
silk wren
While Putin says Wagner does not exist. The strangest thing appears. 2k + “ghosts” looking like Wagner traveled into Belarus at this moment according to this tweet. A second confirmation would be welcome. They camp just 200 km north of the Ukraine north border. And presumably with or without nuclear devices. Russia lies all stuf together and the fact that Wagner was at that nuclear storage gives enough doubts if they do or don not have such devises captured. Do not forget that a small group of Wagner went immidatly to Belarus after that Saturday from there. All the more reason to keep following this group . https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1681382948434477069?s=46
honest hemlock
While Putin says Wagner does not exist. The strangest thing appears. 2k + “ghos...
So, something about V24 is that we encourage here to not share them as they are very closely aligned to the Polish far right and clearly exploit the war in Ukraine for their own political agenda, on top of having started disinformation and slander campaigns (such as against Sanna Marin last year)
honest mist
While Putin says Wagner does not exist. The strangest thing appears. 2k + “ghos...
and the fact Wagner was at that nuclear storage
Is that really a fact though?
honest hemlock
Nothing confirmed and highly unlikely: https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1678651820611076105
crisp maple
"And presumably with or without nuclear devices." Interesting addition
Hajuns really gonna be the only good bet on those numbers though
Some of the spratsiy network folks might release something eventually
silk wren
Another source stating Wagner arrived in numbers within Belarus. https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1681620056898252801?s=46
crisp maple
They sourced it from Hajun
People referencing other sources isn't entirely the best corroboration
primal marten
Nothing confirmed and highly unlikely: https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1...
Yeah, it's been doing the rounds. Nothing solid.
honest hemlock
Yep and just as a heads-up, warmonitor3 doesn't have the best history either, sorry 😅
silk wren
Yep and just as a heads-up, warmonitor3 doesn't have the best history either, so...
I know what Warmonitor and Visegrad are . But than, in this case It is a source on this matter of the Wagner troops, and can and should be scrutinized if it is true or not. This is not a political opinion. It is a lead to be denied or confirmed. But it is always good te be remembered that a source has its own agenda. That for sure.
honest hemlock
I know what Warmonitor and Visegrad are . But than, in this case It is a source ...
Hmm, sorry, but they are not sources but rather echoing Hajun which is the actual source, as Midwest pointed up above
silk wren
Hmm, sorry, but they are not sources but rather echoing Hajun which is the actua...
Yeah. Read that later. Still looking for other sources to confirm.
honest hemlock
Absolutely! That's more than appreciated!
silk wren
Absolutely! That's more than appreciated!
It is not always that clear if it is a new in-depended source of info tho. But that is why we are all here. 👍.
royal imp
Wow, this speech sounds like pure coping
jagged falcon
Dmitry Utkin also appeared in this video
honest hemlock
finite elm
They've finally arrived https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1681697637672665089
Planet imagery of the Tsel base, June 30 - July 19. Sorry it's out of order, look at the date on the bottom-right.
These are all SkySat, 50cm.
jagged falcon
> and the fact Wagner was at that nuclear storage
Is that really a fact though?
Haven't heard/seen anything about wagners and their visit on TNW storage from reliable sources
drifting crown
Wow, this speech sounds like pure coping
Every time I do the Wagner 1+1 it's still 3. Something doesn't fit in the whole story since the *coup.
pearl nest
really curious if we will ever know what prigozhin, his 35 commanders and putin talked about when they met.
silk wren
Every time I do the Wagner 1+1 it's still 3. Something doesn't fit in the whole ...
Lets keep following this all. I’ll bet there is some monkey slipping out of some sleeve in the near future.
royal imp
really curious if we will ever know what prigozhin, his 35 commanders and putin ...
If this meeting ever happened 👀
delicate plume
This came in. Like to see another confirmation. More since there were wagner co...
How does it no longer exist if it didn't technically exist in the first place? Not going to lie, this is a brilliant way to play "The Shell Game" and clandestinely shuffle assets around under the fog of war conjured by the "coup".
pearl nest
grozevs interview starts with prigozhin & the mutiny: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpDgXTzLMYM
silk wren
Stil convoy’s of wagner trucks going to and from Belarus. Clearly not only troops are moved around. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1681743132495425537?s=46. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1681743135301304328?s=46. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1681743137004199936?s=46. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1681743138841325569?s=46
honest hemlock
There was something shared about a couple weeks ago in #far-right-monitoring iirc. If you can't find it let me know and I'll message you because this is a recurring topic (:
drifting crown
Let me Google that for you
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=visegrad24+Far+Right+Account&ia=web
honest hemlock
It has been talked on #disinfo-and-propaganda earlier today, I hadn't seen that before I replied (:
white elbow
Wagner is conducting training exercises together with the Belarus military: https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7133
jagged falcon
The place of training is in ~310km from the place of wagners location
In Osipovichi region they were early training territorial defense forces, now they train BY SOF
fresh belfry
How does it no longer exist if it didn't technically exist in the first place? N...
Clandestinely? Shell game? Are we doing ironic russian 5d chess posting in here now?
crisp maple
What Viperion mentioned is an entirely legitimate thing
And it should be noted we still have like no sourcing on their root registrations
Whether that's going on or not is debatable but it's a very legitimate way at moving around infrastructure which has been degraded
royal imp
Do I understand correctly that the idea is that Putin's government organised this coup only to move Wagner forces to Belarus? (or somewhere else, idk)
pearl nest
Michael Weiss for the Insider: https://theins.ru/en/politics/263596
dusky pier
There are generals in the Russian army, the source added, who gave a variety of excuses for not interfering in Prigozhin’s blitzkrieg (...) Some said they were still hungover from last night
Treating the war like a weekend with friends. I wish I had this relaxed of a job
royal imp
Yeah, I know this theory (as well as Moscow explosions one), I'm just honestly surprised that someone is taking it seriously. Generals who were supporting Prig - sure, I think it's completely possible, but I'm 100% sure this was not some smoke-and-mirrors game from Putin.
dusky pier
We watched one general in one of the Russian regions who received a call on Saturday and demanded to urgently appear at the headquarters in connection with an attempted military coup,” the Ukrainian spy said, “but he did not go anywhere and continued to drink"
crisp maple
Do I understand correctly that the idea is that Putin's government organised thi...
Not necessarily, the points aren't exclusive to one another
In fact, mutiny or coup whatever term you want to apply to it, there would inherently be asset reshuffling as portions of "Wagner" are inhereted by the MoD and Prizoghin has to set up new infrastructure for the rest.
drifting crown
> There are generals in the Russian army, the source added, who gave a variety o...
Weird rhetoric, Blitzkrieg. It was more a Walk Trough, to stay with weird rhetoric
pearl nest
grozevs interview starts with prigozhin & the mutiny: https://www.youtube.com/wa...
another good one from the aspen security forum:
some quotes: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1682263963931639808
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQPTNSyzLCs
Twitter
silk wren
Some questionable news that really does need confirmation again. While Russia redraw all of its regular troops from Belarus, now the Wagner groups are likely to be actual Russian ? If this is the case. All of this Wagner uprise could be indeed the setup of a scène scenario as was thought in previous messages. And it gives Putin the guarantee that at any moment he wish, Nato and Ukraine borders could be confronted with these forces. https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1682226573263482881?s=46
And does this border incident mean Wagner is preparing the proximity of the Ukraine border area’s. https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1682046228576751621?s=46
white elbow
In all this “the coup was just part of a bigger plan” scenario, I still don’t see any advantages in staging it - as opposed to just moving Wagner to Belarus without any of the theatrics. What exactly is gained from it?
silk wren
In all this “the coup was just part of a bigger plan” scenario, I still don’t se...
True. More likely is a “ getting this troublemaker in a most profitable way out of is hair” kinda action as outcome. But. If Wagner is now assumed to be Russian forces in Belarus , what did happen between the top of Russia influences ? Was the devision between them that largely divided in pro and con on Wagner, that they really needed to give it this outcome. At the same time Wagner/Russia has combat experienced troops at some strategic area’s in the direction of Ukraine and Kaliningrad borders
pearl nest
thats the thing with the mutiny, we dont really know much about what happened outside of the movements on the ground. its unsatisfactory but i dont think wild speculation helps here.
crisp maple
In all this “the coup was just part of a bigger plan” scenario, I still don’t se...
Theoretically getting to that level, it could've acted as a form of in-the-moment opportunity to control the environment and force-out opposition
Bit of an adjusted form of something they've done a few times but centered around the environment rather than the opposition group itself
crisp maple
On that, if anyone wants, we can run through an actual D&D analysis cycle, in a lot of cases certain questions can be answered through working through it
silk wren
Most likely the arrest of Girkin and its right hand Gubarov , makes also part of FSB and Putin’s + comrades, to prevent another mutiny. This while also some other generals are still in arrest whom where more or less friends with Prigozhin and its Wagner forces. But in mean while it is very clear that there is turmoil in Russia its ranks.
silk wren
silk wren
There are more and more signals that some second army is formed within Belarus on the foundations of wat was Wagner. Gerashenko reports on this. I like to see other sources confirm this. Because, if so, Putin is again playing his chess game in unpredictable ways while he is bringing more tension towards Poland. This in mind, with tactical nuclear devices stationed in Belarus, this is an adding up of concerning steps. Wagner is at this moment already training Belarusian troops towards assault ready troops. It stil might be a way to get rid of protesting leaders with influence of the Russian military top and putting them on some sort of safe distance. But the rhetoric of Putin towards Poland at this moment sounds alike what happened before to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1682476568998805509?s=46.
unique cosmos
My own belief is that using a timelines based approach, and thinking rationally about what realistic set(s) of options the key people had in front of them. Then gives some pretty clear situations...
For example:
Wagner troops were spent / exhausted in bakhumut after months of heavy fighting. As a starting point (for following a timeline). Then if you move forwards from that point: Clearly we have a situation during the coop whereby Putin is negotiating with Wagner. Around what to do next. And by this point, Wagner has been consistently claiming (quite heavily) that they are done in Ukraine. And also completely exhausted. So 1 of the possible negotiating / bargaining standpoint of Moscow side should have been very logically and naturally be to say something like this:
Well give us your weapons then... because we need to re-distribute those to active fighters who are continuing over in ukraine. (and then wagner can also have it's well deserved break etc... but those equipment should not be retained by wagner... since they will be on holiday). This all fits pretty neatly with the observed public statements and other occurences.
_
This then gives Moscow a sort of opportunity for a 'break' or 'reset' with how to possibly re-organise or re-deploy the Wagner people. As a seperate resource (to those wagner turned over equipment, some of which was given, other retained). Snd it strengthen's Putin's future bargaining position.. and to lean on Prigohzin's own [backing out] claim that his actions were more more like some workers strike / protest than an actual revolt / attempted coop. Then sprinkle in some public guarantees that 'Wagner soldiers are free to choose' (from several reasonable options). And Putin has basically disarmed Wagner. And prevented the possibility of a 2nd 'repeat revolt'. To recurr in near future. this all makes a decent amount of logical sense as per things being played out by ear. As they unfolded. And not requiring any such 'secret master plans' ahead of time between Putin and Wagner... based on what evidence? Since after the fact anybody could say: "well this was our plans all along...". But the public evidence prior to the revolt all pointed to a distinct lack of direct communication between Putin and Prigohzin.
_
And now that putin (and shigou / gerasimov / russian military at putin's behest) has some leverage over wagner in terms of giving back weapons that were previously handed over. so that wagner might conduct new / future operations. that they might come under some new set of negotiated terms.... this all seems pretty straightforwards set of power plays?
_
Now of course there could be alternative theories / explanations events. but would those alternate theories also fit well enough all of the known data? and without requiring even more difficult / complex or less likely / less obvious set of occurences? *
_
*****Noting: Some caveat that for brevity were avoided mentioning certain other significant matters and events. For example around Prigohzin's personal situation and his non-military 'concord' operations.
silk wren
Wagner is full in training Belarusians forces in proximity if Poland, Lithuania and central north if Belarus. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1682494135712792576?s=46. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1682494139177267200?s=46.
I am not going in to the theory mode. I’ll keep on posting public facts that can be scrutinized and could add up to the whole of this “ Wagner saga”. As the purpose of this follow up was to gather info from the start of this, to where this all leads to. That is than recorded en will show in the coming months. Either it is planned or not. At the end only the facts will count and will be on record for history and further research.
fresh belfry
Where is your source that Wagner is training the belarusian armed forces?
jagged falcon
Wagner is full in training Belarusians forces in proximity if Poland, Lithuania ...
This is regular training extension, training is going on 65 weeks already
And it doesn't tell us that wagners are involved in training process on these training grounds
For now the only forces training with wagners are BY SOF on Brest training ground and BY territorial defense forces on Osipovichi training ground
Probably (I haven't seen this info yet) TDF training is completed already, but SOF training is still going
silk wren
Where is your source that Wagner is training the belarusian armed forces?
Looking for that confirmation also , but still added that info here as Hajun is considered a better source. https://twitter.com/hajun_by/status/1682494135712792576?s=46. Seen in other tweets some eligibly footages on twitter and in telegram. But not clear where they were from or timeframe. And that is key. But as soon i or some-one found it, they will end up here.
silk wren
This is regular training extension, training is going on 65 weeks already
As i wrote above. Looking for footages and such with timestamp. In mean while i did add this to the records as such.
fresh belfry
Looking for that confirmation also , but still added that info here as Hajun is ...
There is nothing about wagner at all in these twitter threads, I appreciate your enthusiasm but you have a habit of posting some pretty wild speculation even when claiming to not be theorizing
You derailed the nordstream channel pretty thoroughly for a while with exactly the same kind of posts
silk wren
Dutch Tv is broadcasting footages of Wagner troops training Belarusian troops. I am looking for those footages. Now found within telegram. https://t.me/operativnoZSU/106537.
jagged falcon
As I see on photos this is wagners tent camp in Osipovichi district, Tsel village (you can cross-check this with sat images). AFAIK this channel isn't specified as Belarusian military news channel and it's news might be posted with some delay from original sources. So these guys may be BY TDF, their training was started in Osipovichi district on Osipovichi training ground several days ago
primal marten
Dutch Tv is broadcasting footages of Wagner troops training Belarusian troops. I...
As mentioned by @jagged falcon this Wagner involvement is known in only two spots. #1121882157414100993 message
It's a bit strange to put up a chart of all locations of a long-running excercise and not qualify that. It really helps everyone when we are as precise as possible with the facts in our posts.
pearl nest
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/25/putin-prigozhin-rebellion-kremlin-disarray/
https://archive.ph/MmTfu
