Syria

[azure hare]

weak updates tbh

atleast the movement part

[orchid crest]

this credible?

[crystal mirage]

can you please link to the telegram post?

if you don't know how I can help!

[orchid crest]

I'll get the link, one sec, but there's also this https://t.me/waffairsblog/10236

[remote moss]

Another report of fighting in Damascus (not confirmed and not really geolocatable)
https://x.com/xumas_iq/status/1862912078085767262

Xumas (@xumas_iq) on X

⚡Huge clashes in Damascus right now

The end of the Assad regime is near... I can fell it.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 5:30 PM

[wild salmon]

Here it is: first footage (that I see at least) claimed to be of Hama https://fixvx.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1862915546448048500

[wild salmon]

There's a light there that looks like a minaret, it is a huge stretch but it could be geolocatable

[vital loom]

I'm on it

[wild salmon]

Good luck, I'm expecting lots of similarly looking minarets, but if there's one that completely matches there in Damascus it would be huge

[vital loom]

Not one with three windows so far

[orchid crest]

https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1862915950158221477

Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) on X

BREAKING — Gunfire in sourthern Syrian city Daraa reported by the opposition media. Daraa is bordering Jordan.

If true, Syrian regime is falling apart

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 5:45 PM

?

[vital loom]

I lightened it up a bit

On the video you can see the small top, too

[remote moss]

I've seen some footage of Daraa that's reminiscent of the revolution's early days
https://x.com/mohammed_asakra/status/1862905379102859643

Mohammad Alasakra (@mohammed_asakra) on X

Syrian regime forces open fire on protesters in the city of Inkhil. #Daraa has now ignited.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 5:03 PM

[lofty brook]

The building with the visible text should be relatively easy to geolocate for an Arabic speaker.

[vital loom]

There's a microscope on the left

[lofty brook]

Rough Google Lens/Translate points to some medical testing provider. Al-Amyn Laboratory.

[vital loom]

@teal whale ping

[pale dirge]

For me it says:
Laboratory building
Annex

[lofty brook]

There is a place with that name in Latakia

Definitely something for a (native) speaker though

[wild salmon]

Hama appears to have been taken already, if verified: https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3lc6oc55wwk2t

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)

I was wrong.

HTS is already celebrating in the center of Hama.

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)
Hama is going to fall by morning.

The SAA and Russians already fled.

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 5:58 PM

[vale vapor]

Liveuamap mentions the regular army withdrawing from Hama

[vital loom]

You can't go pxx cause you miss a whole city in that time

[remote moss]

Seeing a lot of RUMINT about a coup underway in Damascus. Seems dubious for now

[vast blade]

Yeah same

[remote moss]

https://x.com/RojavaNetwork/status/1862913825051132056

Rojava Network (@RojavaNetwork) on X

Damascus government forces are withdrawing from Tabqa & southern Manbij countryside

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 5:37 PM

[vast blade]

https://bsky.app/profile/atseez.bsky.social/post/3lc6okjfdus2s

War Reports (@atseez.bsky.social)

⚡ Syria: The clashes between the Republican Guard and the Syrian 4th Armored Division are taking place near the building of the General Staff of the Armed Forces in Damascus.

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 6:03 PM

Not sure how reliable that account is

[vital loom]

I think it's the Umayadden mosque

[vestal thicket]

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1862921689849290927

Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) on X

Reports have appeared that in Damascus, Syria, there is an attempt of a coup against Assad.

It is reported that gunshots are heard by the presidential palace. Syria state TV stopped broadcasting.

The videos and information are not verified.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 6:08 PM

[wild salmon]

Gerashchenko is not known for being a reliable source, let's be careful with what we share

[azure hare]

oh damn

[vital loom]

https://bsky.app/profile/avischarf.bsky.social/post/3lc6qp7qjas2w

Avi Scharf (@avischarf.bsky.social)

After rebels astonish Assad and takeover 2nd largest city, Russian AF arrives Damascus two hours ago, and departs after short ground time
RA-86559

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 6:41 PM

[wild salmon]

Here in FR24, seems headed to Khmeimim https://www.flightradar24.com/RFF7478/382d0c6d

[vast blade]

Was that Assad by chance?

[wild salmon]

Regular planes are still flying over Syria, even Homs

[wild salmon]

Highly doubt it

There have been reports all day of Russians pulling their men out to Khmeimim, but not from Damascus

[vast blade]

It is an Il62 I believe.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=15521f

Heading towards the med/Latakia

Not sure if it'll stop over in Latakia or not.

[wild salmon]

Yeah, Khmeimim is just South of Latakia and is a Russian airbase in the area

It should start descending soon if it heads there, if it goes elsewhere it will be more interesting

[teal whale]

The text says "Al Ameen Labratory" and under it "medical analyses" Unfortunately the best I can find is an Iraqi labratory in Baghdad which appears to have a very similar logo https://www.facebook.com/alamin.lab1/

[vivid lintel]

it's starting to descend, looks like it's heading for Khmeimim

tracking is spotty AF

[wild salmon]

I was about to mention that now, it's doing some weird things but it's probably just the tracking for being off into the Med

[azure hare]

will the US get involved????

[wild salmon]

Per Liveuamap there were some US strikes near Deir ez Zor to support the SDF

[azure hare]

looks crazy.

[wild salmon]

This is the source for Liveuamap, I don't know if this is reliable https://x.com/OALD24/status/1862572015649001794

Omar Abu Layla (@OALD24) on X

🚨🚨🚨🚨
BREAKING:

Airstrikes, believed to be carried out by U.S. aircraft, targeted positions of Iran-backed militias in the towns of #Marat, #Khasham, and #Mazloum, northeast of DeirEzzor eastern Syria!

@DeirEzzor24

Twitter · Nov 29, 2024, 6:59 PM

But he's followed by plenty of people I follow

[azure hare]

will the islamic state make any moves ?

they make me curious now

[mellow wyvern]

Building in the background here looks like a Shwarama House "بيت الشاورما" -- a chain. Might help with the geolocation though

[lofty brook]

This is not the right place for that kind of speculation, I'm afraid. If there are any signs of IS moves, that's fine, of course.

[wild salmon]

Interesting, FR24 now shows the plane kept going at very low altitude all the way into Turkey

[vivid lintel]

ya i think that's wonky data

[wild salmon]

My thoughts too, but you never know

[vivid lintel]

otherwise it's buzzing treetops on those mountains haha

uhhh

is it landing at Hatay?

[wild salmon]

If that is correct yes

[vivid lintel]

https://www.flightradar24.com/RFF7478/382d0c6d

[wild salmon]

But now it looks headed to that mountain range, so I'm leaning towards the wonky data theory 😅

[mellow wyvern]

Might be Idlib, actually. Not Hama. Photo from part of a video in on the Facebook page has some similarities. Should be geolocateable with the ref imagery, I'll keep looking https://www.facebook.com/Shawarmahome1/videos/1256992708809655

[vivid lintel]

ya it's oficially smashed into a mountain (or it's bad data lol)

[wild salmon]

Those mountains are 1500m tall per Google Earth

So yeah, either the plane defies physics or the data is bad lol

[old zodiac]

Question is whether the data is bad on purpose?

[wild salmon]

Very high GPS jamming over Latakia/Khmeimim per https://gpsjam.org/?lat=34.77001&lon=36.37587&z=7.0&date=2024-11-30 (unsurprisingly being a RuAF base)

That very much explains it

[vivid lintel]

ya its on purpose insofar as that region's always jammed to heck

[teal whale]

Big white sign partially obscures says بوظة "Ice Cream" if that helps the search

[lofty brook]

There are a lot of factors that can affect data quality. In addition to what erredece mentioned, coverage is also an issue. Also, barometric altitude is susceptible to all kinds of atmospheric phenomena.

[wild salmon]

Damascus airport is very much operational (there's a flight from Sharjah, UAE, arriving, as well as another one from Kuwait)

[remote moss]

https://bsky.app/profile/aronlund.bsky.social/post/3lc6sbeid2s2p

Aron Lund (@aronlund.bsky.social)

The Ankara-backed Syrian Interim Government announces the start of Operation Freedom's Dawn, in which the Syrian National Army will recover "usurped territories" from the SDF.

They don't specify which areas they're thinking of, but Tell Refaat comes to mind.

www.enabbaladi.net/726470/�%a...

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 7:09 PM

[worthy bear]

"The rebels entered the city of Deir Hafer, "the largest city in the eastern Aleppo countryside," amid gunfire and welcome from the residents a short while ago, after the regime army and Qandil militias fled, arriving this morning."
https://x.com/fadi0bed/status/1862936280163631534

Fadi فادي (@fadi0bed) on X

مصادر محلية: دخول الثوار إلى مدينة ديرحافر "كبرى مدن ريف حلب الشرقي" وسط إطلاق رصاص وترحيب من الأهالي قبل قليل، بعد هروب جيش النظام وميليشيات قنديل التي وصلت صباح اليوم.
#ردع_العداون

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 7:06 PM

[mellow wyvern]

Got the geolocation: https://bsky.app/profile/godin.bsky.social/post/3lc6trfmrdk2m

Jake Godin (@godin.bsky.social)

This appears to be Idlib, not Hama. Building in the background resembles the Shawarma House in Idlib at 35.9322, 36.6240 as seen in one of their Facebook videos here: www.facebook.com/Shawarmahome...

Filming location would perhaps be across the street at another shawarma spot at 35.9319, 36.6240.

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)
I was wrong.

HTS is already celebrating in the center of Hama.

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 7:36 PM

Not Hama, it's Idlib, near Triangle Park. Reference imagery here on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXJWlYJSdvU

And on the FB video from the Shawarma House page.

Another shawarma restaurant's Google Maps page has what appears to be the same black and yellow awning just barely visible as well: https://www.google.com/maps/place/مطعم+القيمرية‭/@35.9318734,36.6238717,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipP9ENoSIXf3XRjYhTwVPogBhvm_UYjdR98dDiGk!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipP9ENoSIXf3XRjYhTwVPogBhvm_UYjdR98dDiGk%3Dw203-h114-k-no!7i3264!8i1836!4m7!3m6!1s0x152509194788e387:0x234f9b9c649b48dd!8m2!3d35.9318494!4d36.6240215!10e5!16s%2Fg%2F11sw19lff_?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTEyNC4xIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

[vital loom]

Can you also check this one? https://maps.app.goo.gl/66LMwkiX2cXwgzWV8

Ah ok

[teal whale]

Yes, that's definitely it. Here is the facebook page of the restaurant "Bawaba al Salihya" in which you can also see pictures with the car rental shop with the yellow sign in between them. Same location. https://www.facebook.com/people/مطعم-بوابة-الصالحية/100094417608321/

[azure hare]

heres how far idlib is from hama

57.16 miles

[old zodiac]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1862934681542373617 - dominoes are falling around the regime...

WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) on X

Rybar reports that the Russians have dismissed Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, the commander of Russia's troop grouping in Syria. Earlier, former Eastern Military District commander Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, implicated in the mass killings in Bucha, was sent to assist

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 7:00 PM

[wild salmon]

For anyone who just started watching, this thread is a good summary of what has happened so far in the last few days and seems verified https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lc6u4xftk22k

(@charleslister1.bsky.social)

OK folks, here's what we know so far from #Syria - a 🧵:

#Aleppo city has fallen, along with the entire western countryside & much of the south too -- including the international airport & Kuweiris Airbase.

A few #Russia airstrikes, but little else.

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 7:42 PM

[wild salmon]

The UAE appears to have shown public support with Assad https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lc6vfdswcc25

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

UAE President: We stand with Bashar al-Assad

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 8:05 PM

[vital loom]

Don't forget to take a break in between

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lc6vom6ns225

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

BREAKING NEWS - Russian airstrikes target the outskirts of the city of Al-Bab, east of Aleppo, Syria.

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 8:10 PM

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862951676597936194?t=w7ESqo1n9FSfNDZbI7L1PA&s=19

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) on X

Apparently I'm not clear enough, so here you go: Hama city never fell. Rebels got to it, big chunks of Governorate are in rebel hands, but the city never fell.

Everything is in flux. I expect that SAA has regrouped there. Battles may come, they may not.

Just keep in context.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 8:07 PM

[old zodiac]

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1862954808203722948

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria: regime forces are back at the northern entrance to the city of #Hama, having recaptured the Jabal Zine al-Abidine just outside of the city.

Next 24 hours will show whether the rebels will try to mount another assault on the city.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 8:20 PM

[worthy bear]

Descending into Damascus out of Kuwait

[wild salmon]

Yep, Damascus is still operating flights. Even more surprisingly there were a few Amman headed commercial flights that flew very close to the contact zone just a couple hours ago

[jolly marlin]

Yeah there’s one about to land at Damascus from Cairo in ~25 minutes

[wild salmon]

Geo https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lc6y26blrc23

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)

Several pieces of regime armor have showed up to the north of Hama. Indications are it retook the traffic circle at geolocation: 35.15384, 36.75588

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 8:53 PM

[teal whale]

video https://x.com/ajmubasher/status/1862971515039367242

الجزيرة مباشر (@ajmubasher) on X

عاجل | صور متداولة تظهر تمركز قوات النظام على أطراف مدينة #حماة وسط #سوريا

#الجزيرة_مباشر

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 9:26 PM

[wild salmon]

https://bskye.app/profile/qusaynoor.bsky.social/post/3lc75p7s7ak26

Webcam footage of Idlib showing an airstrike https://bskye.app/profile/qusaynoor.bsky.social/post/3lc72lvcazc26

[formal sun]

From my understanding, tensions have been building in this region for awhile, despite a brief detente recently. Last night I was just watching some content that suggested that it was believed an offensive was planned for the near future

Their source list is not available except by request, so I've emailed the creator, but is there evidence to support the claim that this was predictable?

[wild salmon]

Jolani signaled of an offensive towards Aleppo all the way back to May 2023 https://fixvx.com/Levant_24_/status/1862573862312923192

Speaking of Jolani, this is something to keep in mind:

https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862997443089928496

https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1862997482969391325

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) on X

People talking about HTS forget that amongst other things Jolani is deeply connected with the tribes that span from Lebanon to Iraq across Syria.

ISI had many assets that ISIS demolished.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 11:09 PM

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) on X

Yes it's a deeply Syrian movement, yes he's not AQ or IS, but he is transnational in a way that is much more subtle than Hezbollah et al, and that provides logistical and other assistance in ways that are barely visible until they happen

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 11:09 PM

[formal sun]

Certainly, but that's sorta my point - like, it's been a long time coming, most certainly, but was there any clue in the last few weeks (troop movements, statements made, etc) that would clue us into the attack happening? I'm asking because while I generally trust the reporting I have seen so far, I haven't had access to their sources list yet, and I want to make sure I repeat only verifiable things.

[wild salmon]

Honestly that's something that needs to be asked to those who were watching the situation very closely, I myself am as caught by surprise as most people here

[pale dirge]

https://vxtwitter.com/ozkaterji/status/1845195604168933575

From October 12th.

[formal sun]

Yeah, I was pretty surprised too. I'm hoping to provide the sources list from GTBT soon because I think it will be more thorough than most.

[formal sun]

Thank you!

[wild salmon]

The plane we saw going from Damascus to Khmeimin is now over the Russian Caucasus. https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lc7d4o2j2s2k

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)

Answer: no.

The GPS interference strikes again.

Bluesky · Dec 1, 2024, 12:11 AM

It's currently not visible in FR24 but here is it's latest known position in ADS-B exchange https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=15521f

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/ruslantrad.bsky.social/post/3lcabmtgbjc2s

Ruslan Trad (@ruslantrad.bsky.social)

Syrian rebels have taken control of Aleppo's main industrial zone - a separate industrial city outside the ring road - Sheikh Najar Industrial City, an area larger than the city of Idlib, and in terms of industrial potential not inferior to the entire Idlib province.

Bluesky · Dec 1, 2024, 9:17 AM

[vale vapor]

After a stock of MANPADS two days ago, rebels captured a Pantsir S1 anti-air missile system.
https://x.com/mzmgr941/status/1863126977097437503

مزمجر الثورة السورية (@mzmgr941) on X

#عاجـــــــــــــــــــــــل

تم تحرير المحطة الحرارية في #حلب المدينة

اغتنام منظومة بانزز من قبل أبطال #فجر_الحرية

#جواسيس_العصر

لمتابعة قناة مزمجر الثورة السورية ادخل واشترك👇
https://t.co/yPqIMe3arA

Twitter · Dec 1, 2024, 7:44 AM

[wild salmon]

To clarify, the Pantsir was captured by the SNA, the Turkey backed rebels

[brazen venture]

A bit of a bird's eye, very early military analysis of the offensive based mainly on the same OSINT that was shared here. Main takeaway is that there's some evidence of regime forces having regrouped around Hama, and the ball is in HTS's court to consolidate its gains before the regime can organize a counteroffensive.

https://syriarevisited.substack.com/p/the-revolution-returns-to-hama-and

[wild salmon]

Claims of bombings at the University Hospital in Aleppo https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lcairwnn7c24

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

BREAKING NEWS - Russian warplanes bomb the university hospital in Aleppo, Syria.

Likes

139

Bluesky · Dec 1, 2024, 11:25 AM

[lone wing]

Would like to follow up.

[pale dirge]

Hi! Sorry I missed this before. What exactly are you asking? Whether, where or how you can post a link to Facebook?

PS this is why we have Modmail.

[lone wing]

Thinking if it’s okay to post here or to modmail (yeah sorry I could have asked via latter). But I have 2 concerns:

1. 2 are profiles (but they’re public);
2. al-Fateh al-Mubin (now Military Operations Command) is linked to HTS, which is designated as a terror group. But the posts of the page and profiles are not taken down.

Before getting shared by Syrian opposition MSM, these profiles share media. They’re like troves of media.

[orchid crest]

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1863246333953376300

Open Source Intel (@Osint613) on X

BREAKING 🚨

Syrian rebels have breached into President Assad’s palace. @N12News

Twitter · Dec 1, 2024, 3:38 PM

is it palace tho?

they give a lil tour, might be locatable

[crystal mirage]

So following the tags backwards to the first (tagged) poster https://x.com/N12News/status/1863244044190487034?s=19

החדשות - N12 (@N12News) on X

סמל שלטון בחלב נכבש: מורדים פרצו לארמון הנשיאותי של אסד | תיעוד
@sapirlipkin

Twitter · Dec 1, 2024, 3:29 PM

[orchid crest]

Thank you, seemed very doubtful

don't have twitter so I can't check

[crystal mirage]

Which tells us this is in Aleppo

Some of the worst media is taking this at face value and citing "Arab reports"

Al-Assad's home is located in Damascus

[vital loom]

Didn't know they still exist

Looks more like a guest house

[crystal mirage]

He may have multiple homes of course

This list is worth checking out vs Twitter, imo

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:sgti3jsgu3luif24tokvth3a/lists/3lc6otbs3v625

Bluesky

[crystal mirage]

Syria reporting

Searching Bluesky tells me it's the "governor's palace"

https://bsky.app/profile/aronlund.bsky.social/post/3lcazi5vcls2t

Aron Lund (@aronlund.bsky.social)

Making the rounds now: Phony claims in Jerusalem Post about rebels seizing Assad’s palace in Damascus. www.jpost.com/breaking-new...

This is totally false. The actual story reported in Arabic is about a presidential administration building/guesthouse in Aleppo. www.almashhadnews.com/296999

Bluesky · Dec 1, 2024, 4:24 PM

If Jerusalem Post is wrong again I'll do a shot

[vital loom]

Guesthouse. Exactly my thoughts.

[crystal mirage]

Here's the URL for this story https://www.almashhadnews.com/296999

[olive sundial]

What's going on in the red? Are there even still troops there?

[crystal mirage]

If there's no "source" in the red to click on and verify, I think everyone here would just be guessing

[pale dirge]

If there’s not been enough information, they simply don’t know what to change it to.

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1863304056753602861

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria MAP UPDATE: the situation in Syria as of 01/12/2024. After almost five years of frozen frontlines the #Assad regime has collapsed all over the northwest.

Rebel forces captured #Aleppo city and advanced as far south as N Hama

Download larger file: https://t.co/MWNiHgxkxC

Twitter · Dec 1, 2024, 7:28 PM

[golden plover]

https://qunfuz.com/2024/12/01/history-made-on-the-ground/

[vital loom]

Side note https://bsky.app/profile/rebel44cz.bsky.social/post/3lcdomsi6sk27

Jakub Janovsky (@rebel44cz.bsky.social)

Big news: This week* the Oryx Blog will have a new article and a new list (with the list of equipment losses being built by @elmustek) - documenting equipment losses during the Syrian rebel offensive and regime collapse.

Bluesky · Dec 2, 2024, 5:47 PM

[old zodiac]

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1863624390467895689 the lack of situational awareness between parties is really quite something

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

This video shows the level of confusion that was present in #Hama province the past two days.

Two rebels entered the town of Taybat al-Imam, assuming it had been taken. Upon seeing the soldiers they realize the regime was still in control and tried to speed off asap.

#Syria

Twitter · Dec 2, 2024, 4:40 PM

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/trbrtc.bsky.social/post/3lce2zc6ps22f

Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc.bsky.social)

Around 3 pm today, airstrikes reportedly hit 5 medical facilities in Idlib City, Syria, incl. 4 hospitals (one with a maternity ward). Flight data from @SentrySyria shows two Russian aircraft departed Hmeimim and circled above the opposition-held city at the time of the strikes.

Bluesky · Dec 2, 2024, 9:29 PM

[wild salmon]

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/first-sign-russian-navy-evacuating-naval-vessels-from-tartus-syria/

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/eliothiggins.bsky.social/post/3lcfdh6xcad2l

Eliot Higgins (@eliothiggins.bsky.social)

Given fears that there may be new chemical attacks in Syria, here's a thread on some of the chemical munitions used in the past by the Syrian government. First, there's been two primary agents use, chlorine gas, and sarin, each associated with specific munitions.

Bluesky · Dec 3, 2024, 9:33 AM

[wild salmon]

USAF providing support to the SDF near Deir ez Zor https://fixvx.com/ScharoMaroof/status/1863929717801271416

[ancient fog]

https://bsky.app/profile/saladinaldronni.bsky.social/post/3lcfqup2afs2z

Paweł Wójcik 🦋 (@saladinaldronni.bsky.social)

Confirmed - the second round of the battle for Hama city is starting now. The rebels from HTS and supporting factions have entered the city.
A major development not sure if not even bigger than Aleppo.

Bluesky · Dec 3, 2024, 1:33 PM

[vale vapor]

That air assault over Deir Ez Zor is a message if I've ever seen one.
The city is on the road Iran uses to transit troops and support that are vital for Assad's survival.

https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/1863324846815416451

Woofers (@NotWoofers) on X

Thousands of Hashd ash Shaabi fighters from Iraq are flowing through the border at Bukamal to go reinforce the SAA. Not clear where they will be deployed as of now. I am sure the Israelis are interested as well.

Twitter · Dec 1, 2024, 8:50 PM

[wild salmon]

There have been a few strikes already

[royal kettle]

https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/1864027251265745238

Woofers (@NotWoofers) on X

US jets (likely A-10s) destroyed an MRL and T-62 (doubt it's a T-64) around Khasham today during fighting between the SDF and pro-Assad forces.

Twitter · Dec 3, 2024, 7:21 PM

https://x.com/lapinesque/status/1864024139696128260

Dani Ellis (@lapinesque) on X

This is exactly how the SNA have operated in all the areas they have previously taken from Efrîn to Serî Kanî. In Kurdish they are simply referred to as ‘çete’ (chetteh) –gangsters– for this reason. They have no real political aims other than their own personal enrichment.

Twitter · Dec 3, 2024, 7:09 PM

[royal kettle]

https://x.com/JM_Szuba/status/1864033435037376717

Jared Szuba (@JM_Szuba) on X

Pentagon: In eastern Syria today, US aircraft destroyed multiple weapons – including truck-mounted MLRS and a T-64 tank – after Mission Support Site-Euphrates, a key US base in the area, came under mortar fire.

@PentagonPresSec says incident was not linked to situation around

Twitter · Dec 3, 2024, 7:46 PM

[royal kettle]

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1864063910011093258

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) on X

Unfortunately, the drones supplied by Ukrainians are killing Kurdish fighters of the #SDF, an strategic ally of the #US in #Syria. Terrorists of the #Turkish backed #SNA are proudly publishing videos of their FPV drone operations against #SDF/#YPG forces in #Syria.

Twitter · Dec 3, 2024, 9:47 PM

[wild salmon]

What evidence is there that these are Ukraine supplied drones?

[fickle fog]

Yep. Smells like disinfo

If anything, the most common supply source for FPV drones is Chinese online marketplaces

Where they come as partially assembled kits

[golden plover]

also use of small commercial drones was seen in syria way before it was applied in ukraine, pre2022, and pre 2016

[hard glacier]

Yep, first time I ever heard of drone drops was by ISIL

[royal kettle]

It's a good question. This seems relevant to the source of these drones though: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43117

[wild salmon]

Kyiv Post is a shadow of its former self and has posted many stories of supposed special actions from Ukrainian forces abroad that were simply false.

Also there's a big difference between providing some training, which is what that article suggests, and providing drones themselves

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/ruslantrad.bsky.social/post/3lci67u23h22a

Ruslan Trad (@ruslantrad.bsky.social)

The Syrian regime forces are reportedly detaining residents of the Damascus suburb of East Ghouta, aged 15 to 47.

Should be noted that the entire Ghouta area has been the scene of some of the heaviest fighting in the civil war since the early days of the uprising against Assad.

Bluesky · Dec 4, 2024, 12:37 PM

[lone wing]

Failed to find these clips in other media. These are in Raqqa; from page Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently:

Those displaced from Aleppo governorate after anti-SDF operations are forbidden to enter Raqqa for some reason. This update said that three children have died due to cold in the evening.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/gjcebQvqV1HxZFji/

Due to the policy, the Raqqawi civil society has called upon the community to provide food, bedding and temporary accommodation to the displaced.
Mosque calls: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/gjcebQvqV1HxZFji/
Civilians to the rescue: https://www.facebook.com/share/v/eWQjGCrJ8W75nW86/
Actual aid campaign: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/5ubPew5e31zzHGoc/

Footage of fleeing Assad and Russian troops from places including Kobani and Ayn Issa: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=998002399021167&id=100064342493001&__n=K

[royal kettle]

Thanks for that context!

An investigation into the identity ofr the journalist who participated in the assault of Kurdish civilians: https://npasyria.com/en/119113/

[remote moss]

https://bsky.app/profile/rebel44cz.bsky.social/post/3lcj657wytc22

Jakub Janovsky (@rebel44cz.bsky.social)

Here is my excel sheet graph with monthly data on visually confirmed Assads regime armor losses since the start of the SCW, if I put the regime losses over the past week into the last field.

Bluesky · Dec 4, 2024, 10:08 PM

[olive sundial]

https://vxtwitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1864589060653588644?s=19

[worthy bear]

That video footage out of Khattab is wild.....

[vale vapor]

Report of a shot down helicopter.
If the rebels managed to get the looted MANPADS working it will be a huge game changer compared from 2015.
https://x.com/Magedabdelnour1/status/1864614052464386180

ماجد عبد النور (@Magedabdelnour1) on X

عاجل // إسقاط طائرة مروحية وإصابة أخرى على جبهات ريف حماه .

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 10:13 AM

[golden plover]

supposedly visual confirmation

https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1864631744277750206

Mintel World (@mintelworld) on X

#BreakingNews | Visual confirmed: Syrian rebes shot down a helicopter belonging to the Assad regime in the city of Hama

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 11:23 AM

[ancient fog]

https://bsky.app/profile/robertpostings.bsky.social/post/3lckonglqxs2u

Robert Postings (@robertpostings.bsky.social)

Hama has been captured by rebels.

Syrian State Media say government forces are withdrawing from Hama. Pictures and videos show rebels inside the city.

Bluesky · Dec 5, 2024, 12:36 PM

[golden plover]

rumint of heavy gunfire in damascus from both pro and anti regime accounts
https://fxtwitter.com/fcbahn/status/1864663556668403879/en

https://fxtwitter.com/fcbahn/status/1864664738627506295/en

shaheed marches = shaheen fpv drones

[royal kettle]

SDF claims of mass kidnapping by SNA forces near Shahba: https://sdf-press.com/en/2024/12/update-large-scale-kidnapping-campaign-by-turkish-backed-mercenaries-in-shahbaa/

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/nickwaters.bsky.social/post/3lcl2ulszls2v

Nick Waters (@nickwaters.bsky.social)

Large traffic jams around Homs leaving the city.

Bluesky · Dec 5, 2024, 4:15 PM

[golden plover]

israel bombed the rebels
https://fxtwitter.com/DeirEzzore/status/1864732550276538780/en

[karmic slate]

The person was quote tweeting this tweet from Doron Kadosh, the embed cut it off
https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1864644939583201385

דורון קדוש | Doron Kadosh (@Doron_Kadosh) on X

דיווחים בסוריה: לראשונה מאז תחילתה של מתקפת המורדים בסוריה בשבוע האחרון - ישראל ביצעה הלילה תקיפה אווירית בצפון סוריה, באזור הסמוך למרחב שליטתם החדש של המורדים. לפי הדיווחים, התקיפה בוצעה מדרום-מזרח לחלב, בשטח שעדיין נשלט בידי אסד. הותקפו מאגרים של נשק מתקדם.

נראה שמדובר על נשק

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 12:16 PM

[worthy bear]

ISIS claiming gains in Homs and Deir Ezzor desert

https://fxtwitter.com/Mustafa_Alali2/status/1864743345118969930

SDF media centre post regarding the above.

https://fxtwitter.com/farhad_shami/status/1864740692746031590

[wild salmon]

Does anyone got the original source? https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lclj4mzjzk2u

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)

Rastan Bridge

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)
Reports that Russian Airforce aircraft have begun striking the Al-Rastan bridge.

On the other hand, people inside Homs have reported that the SAA are already beginning to abandon the city.

Bluesky · Dec 5, 2024, 8:30 PM

[worthy bear]

https://fxtwitter.com/RojavaNetwork/status/1864755756412662065

Apparently the bridge has gone.... might slow things down a little but the momentum is pretty high atm

https://t.me/zainaldinmaham1/68390

[faint kernel]

Opposition recently claimed positions just north of Rastan so it makes sense they might destroy the bridge.

https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1864751978271605184

Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) on X

#Syria: ex-Rebels took control tonight of the Engineering Battalion near Rastan (N. #Homs).
It's a strategic area close to the viaduct of the M-5 Highway (used by SAA to withdraw towards Homs).
It looks like Assad's forces also left their equipment behind, without a fight.

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 7:21 PM

[wild salmon]

I would wait for footage of a close up of the bridge to confirm it is gone. Bridges can be surprisingly resilient to destruction, as we have seen with plenty of examples in Ukraine

[faint kernel]

https://x.com/OALD24/status/1864710534290932181

Omar Abu Layla (@OALD24) on X

🚨🚨🚨👇

Muqtada al-Sadr issues a statement prohibiting interference in Syrian affairs, emphasizing that it is up to the Syrian people to decide their own fate.

👀

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 4:36 PM

Why would Sadr take a position like this on Syria?

[worthy bear]

True, daylight will tell.....though two single lanes that took a number of direct hits would suggest that any southward transit would be redirected via the dam wall or Ghawr al-Assi

Or, I guess Salamiyeh which is already under rebel control and on the other side of the Orontes

Get enough speed up and just send it....lighter vehicles probably ok if that footage is legit

https://fxtwitter.com/h_useyin987/status/1864775880901275668

Not even certain that the footage is the Al-Rastan bridge...... daylight it is

[worthy bear]

Reports that rebel forces have managed to take control of a military checkpoint on the M5 highway at Ghabagheb, a critical route connecting Dara'a to the capital, Damascus but nothing confirmed as yet.
Anyone seen anything backing that up?

https://fxtwitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1864799884529782859

[azure hare]

kurds reached an ISIS exclave as seen on liveuamap

[azure hare]

hi, im curious about this, will this be put on the liveuamap, some parts of the homs and deir ezzor desert being ISIS territory now?

their involvement in syria now makes me curious

[worthy bear]

I'm not sure. Their feed utilises a number of news sources from X and elsewhere but there are areas of ISIS elements to the south of Deir Ez Zor listed now.

[azure hare]

hm, my liveuamap is the same as it was for the past few months

their involvement in the war would be interesting

im looking to dig deep into them

https://x.com/farhad_shami/status/1864740692746031590

Farhad Shami (@farhad_shami) on X

Update – Our SDF forces are taking effective measures to stop the expansion of ISIS
The terrorist organization ISIS has recently declared control over significant portions of the Homs and Deir Ezzor desert, seizing numerous cities and strategic positions from the Damascus

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 6:36 PM

so there is this

then we also get this later

https://x.com/Mustafa_Alali2/status/1864743345118969930

Mustafa Al-Ali (@Mustafa_Alali2) on X

ISIS claims in a statement it took control of new areas south east Homs city after clashes with the Syrian army.

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 6:47 PM

now we have no clue where south-east homs really is, like specific areas

so thats probably why liveuamap hasnt yet added anything there

[worthy bear]

While Liveumap is a handy resource and high-level view, I wouldn't rely on it as your sole source of truth for what is happening on the ground.
Better to just let information come in from multiple sources until confirmed.
It's just too dynamic and folks want to be first with information regardless of veracity.

[azure hare]

where would you suggest, what sources do I check?

I always have confusion on what sources to check

so I just go to liveuamap

[worthy bear]

I think it's very helpful and I use it a lot also.
I like Thomas van Linge's maps, Jusoor, the ArcGIS Syrian conflict map..... others have far more experience in this conflict than I and should be able to pipe in with some suggestions.
Liveumap have sources they trust and it seems well regarded so I don't mean to discount it.

[wild salmon]

Wikipedia's map for Syria is actually pretty good, add it to them.

[next echo]

Charles Lister 🧵 on HTS success.
https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lcl25jwtqs27

(@charleslister1.bsky.social)

Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week.

A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a 🧵:

Reposts

158

Likes

491

Bluesky · Dec 5, 2024, 4:02 PM

[remote moss]

https://bsky.app/profile/nedalalamari.bsky.social/post/3lcmju3gmmc23

Nedal Al-Amari (@nedalalamari.bsky.social)

BREAKINGS NEWS :

The city of Al-Rastan in the northern countryside of Homs is green.

The entry of the Free Syrian Army forces and complete control over the city.

Al-Rastan has been liberated.

Homs ⏳

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Dec 6, 2024, 6:16 AM

[olive sundial]

https://vxtwitter.com/nedalalamari/status/1864922927432413608?s=19

[worthy bear]

https://fxtwitter.com/mintelworld/status/1864920066770276625

34.839944, 36.726552

https://x.com/Rian_almasri/status/1864926040658677761

ريان المصري (@Rian_almasri) on X

تير معلة💚💚💚💚💚💚

#Suriye #ردع_العدوان
#فجر_الحرية #حلب_تتحرر #حماة_تتحرر #سوريا_تتحرر #سوريا #Syria #Halep #حماه #دمشق
#ادلب #حمص_تتحرر

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 6:53 AM

Above is Tayr Malah, about 4kms from the centre of Homs

Smaller vehicles seem to be passing Rastan Bridge at the least

https://fxtwitter.com/k7ybnd99/status/1864929031931527236

Aspect looks like it could well be

Purported footage of SAA troops leaving Homs (not confirmed)

https://fxtwittter.com/k7ybnd99/status/1864911094512259207

[lone wing]

Guys I don’t know what plane this is, as in the very specific plane. From Laith al-Abdullah:
“Air Force Intelligence planes listed on international terrorism sanctions move without issuing a signal
What is the regime's plane transporting between Syria, Lebanon and Libya?
A regime intelligence plane has just arrived in Beirut from Damascus. The plane is classified under the US sanctions list in addition to the SDGT international terrorism list due to its participation in transporting weapons and fighters for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Two days ago, the plane left Damascus for Benghazi and returned after a five-hour stop in Benghazi, which is a known route for transporting weapons, drugs and mercenaries between the Syrian regime and the Haftar regime.
It should be noted that the plane intensified its flights between Aleppo and Damascus on November 28, after the launch of military operations to liberate Aleppo and control the 46th Regiment, as shown in the picture.”

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2282525258790539&id=100010992610134&__n=K

[vale vapor]

What do you mean ?
Aircraft model ? Tail number ?
https://www.airteamimages.com/ilyushin-il-76_yk-atb_syrian-air_329437

@vivid lintel
That twitter link is spelled twittter. You might want to delete.

#1113364002756644874 message

[worthy bear]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html

I read this earlier in the week..... recommend.

[lone wing]

Flight no. I guess?

Okay got it
It has no data here though
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/yk-atb

[lone wing]

https://x.com/Mustafa_Alali2/status/1864743345118969930
Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently: “The statement attributed to the #ISIS organization about its control over Khunayfis in Homs is forged, as the last statement published by the terrorist organization... was about news from the country of Mali in Africa about a military event in the city of ‘Ansongo’.”
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/W7FqmPKFKTVkQPNx/

Mustafa Al-Ali (@Mustafa_Alali2) on X

ISIS claims in a statement it took control of new areas south east Homs city after clashes with the Syrian army.

Twitter · Dec 5, 2024, 6:47 PM

[worthy bear]

There were rumblings that something was going to unfold in Dara'a last night and today it looks like HTS is contesting areas to the south of Damascus.

[azure hare]

isis expansion, as seen on liveuamap

thats quite alot

[cold sapphire]

It's a lot of nothing

[azure hare]

territory is still territory

they could advance to the airport next to that exclave in the middle on the second photo

Palmyra airport

[cold sapphire]

For areas like this though mapping it seems a bit pointless. It's not really representing control, just presence. I believe the Wikipedia map has most of the desert shaded in grey which I think is a more reasonable representation.

[wild salmon]

Geolocation in the replies https://bskye.app/profile/asiaintel.bsky.social/post/3lcn7pgnsrs2j

[wild salmon]

It's all desert however. The main concern would be if they reach retreating positions of the SAA in Deir ez Zor before the SDF does

JPost, which is close to Netanyahu's government, is openly saying that Assad falling would be, according to them, bad news for Israel. https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-832227

[wild salmon]

Geo in replies: https://bskye.app/profile/asiaintel.bsky.social/post/3lcnee4e6l22f

[vast blade]

I can't imagine that if Homs is taken and fully secured, that negotiations for Assads immediate resignation don't begin immediately with Turkey and Russia as mediums

Latakia will be cut off from Damascus, and the Russians won't want to lose out on negotiating a peace that includes them keeping their base

[wild salmon]

The rebels have very little sympathy for Russia and have the upper hand

[vast blade]

Obviously, but peace deals always include concessions. I can't imagine Russia doesn't at least try to negotiate their right to keep their base.

[wild salmon]

We will see, things are moving very quickly and the moment we start to speculate we are going to miss things happening

[vast blade]

True

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lcnirtcshs2d

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

BREAKING - Russia has informed Damascus that any intervention will be limited, as it has other priorities at this time, Sky News Arabia reports.

Bluesky · Dec 6, 2024, 3:29 PM

[vital loom]

this site is missleading, we talked about that before.

[vale vapor]

Assad is a convenient dictator for Israel. He doesnt care enough for Golan Heights to reopen a conflict and would rather jail Palestinian activists than suffer any trouble.
As for the Russian naval base in Tartus there's too much bad blood against them to risk keeping modern warships within drone range IMHO.

[grim atlas]

Are there better alternatives focussed on syria?

[cold sapphire]

You just have to understand what it is, what it can do and what it can't do.

lol just as I go to look on it they've changed the colour of the desert areas

The wikipedia map has the huge benefit of showing clear dots for towns and cities.

[dim grove]

Has anyone seen casualty numbers from this offensive? I haven't been very on top of this but it doesn't look like the rebels have encountered any significant resistance yet

[vale vapor]

I havent seen heavy fighting but many abandoned materials such as intact T-62s and T-72s left on the road.
No Oryx page, I hope they'll open one.

[wild salmon]

Oryx is going to have a page tonight: https://bsky.app/profile/rebel44cz.bsky.social/post/3lcmvpvmx2c2z

Jakub Janovsky (@rebel44cz.bsky.social)

Some scheduling info:

Tonight: publish the new article with the list of regime equipment losses (it will initially lack some less impotant equipment)
Tomorrow: update the loss lists related to Ukraine

after that both lists being gradually updated

Bluesky · Dec 6, 2024, 9:48 AM

But only equipment losses, no people

[dim grove]

Thx guys, there's OCHA reports on civilian casualties mainly in idlib due to airstrikes but it doesn't give much idea of ground clashes btwn the two sides

[vital loom]

I would also go with wiki, they all copy more or less from each other, what I also look into is this one here but it doesn't gets permanently updated as fast as this all goes. Think you are more updated following the veterans of Syria reporting on Twitter. Anyways, here's a link https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/1933cb1d315f4db3a4f4dcc5ef40753a

[karmic slate]

Per the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights article posted on their website on December 5th, 2024.

Since the beginning of “Deterrence of Aggression” operation on November 27, SOHR has documented the death of 727 people:

-371 rebels:

• 311 HTS members.
• 60 members of the “National Army” factions.

-245 members of regime forces and their proxy militias:

• 220 members of regime forces, including 18 officers.
• Six Iranian-backed Syrian militiamen.
• 15 militiamen of different nationalities.
• Four regime-backed gunmen.

-111 civilians

• Two civilians, including a child, were killed in bombardment.
• 87 civilians were killed in airstrikes by Russian and regime aircraft on different residential areas and populated neighbourhoods.
• Four university students were killed in rocket fire by Hayyaat Tahrir Al-Sham on the university student dormitory in Aleppo city.
• 15 civilians, including three children, were killed in strikes on Hama city.
• Three civilians, including a woman her little daughter, died of the wounds they sustained in earlier bombardment on Nebl and Al-Zahraa in Aleppo.

https://www.syriahr.com/en/350637/

Note: had to edit the layout of the text in order to compress the amount of spacing as shown in the article.

[remote moss]

https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1865011227224637608

Mazen Hassoun (@HassounMazen) on X

BREAKING: Russian media: Russian embassy in #Syria urges its citizens to leave the country

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 12:31 PM

https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1865054324524540061

Levant24 (@Levant_24_) on X

According to Abdulnaser Alyed, editor-in-chief of the Jisr newspaper, Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Jalali and a number of his ministers from the Assad regime defected.

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 3:22 PM

[worthy bear]

Pretty solid map posted on another server.... no original source listed sorry

News report claiming Assad has arrived in Tehran

https://x.com/AlarabyTV/status/1865093715309519305

التلفزيون العربي (@AlarabyTV) on X

أنباء عن وصول رئيس النظام السوري إلى #طهران.. التفاصيل مع مراسل التلفزيون العربي ياسر مسعود
#ردع_العدوان
#سوريا
@yasermasood20

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 5:59 PM

[worthy bear]

Russian cargo escort casualty

https://vk.com/wall-62006773_202036

[wild salmon]

Geo in replies https://bskye.app/profile/osinttechnical.bsky.social/post/3lcnueyd43k2o

[vast blade]

https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lcnwgef4kc2n

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

BREAKING NEWS - Bashar al-Assad in Tehran for a meeting with Iranian officials.

Bluesky · Dec 6, 2024, 7:33 PM

[worthy bear]

Very good Live chat on X at the moment with Oz Katerji, Thomas van Linge, Gregory Waters, Rami Jarrah, Mazen Hassoun and a bunch of other journos
Refreshingly civilised compared to some live events I've endured..... a very knowledgable and level-headed bunch

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865101547127898381

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria MAP UPDATE: The situation in Syria as on the evening of 06/12/2024.

In a single day the #Assad regime lost the cities of #DeirEzZor, #Suwayda, and is about to lose #Daraa. The collapse of the regime seems closer then ever.

Download larger file: https://t.co/y4nbpWFw2u

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 6:30 PM

[fervent talon]

https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/1865115754506366987

Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) on X

Report: Assad is not in Syria anymore

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 7:27 PM

[vast blade]

Allegedly he is in Iran.

[fervent talon]

seems like he would be safer in russia

[vast blade]

I don't think the Russians really care for him. A useful tool and that's all. Iran on the other hand has a lot more in common with the Syrian regime.

[fervent talon]

ahhh yeah, I just realized he would probably need a long term stay and Iran seems like a better fit

[worthy bear]

Rebels seize Deir ez-Zor Airport - 35.2878993, 40.188132

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865104616871829550

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria: #SDF forces at the #DeirEzZor airport which they seized from the #Assad regime earlier today.

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 6:42 PM

[pale dirge]

Do we have any sources for this Assad talk, or is it all speculation and rumour?

[golden plover]

nothing confirmed so far, but several "ok" sources posting about it

likely something official or somewhat credible will come up in the coming hours

[worthy bear]

A couple of TV news pieces (one above ) and online sources but nothing official.

Pretty wild if accurate

https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1865130745955529140

Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) on X

NEW -- #Daraa now. In 12hrs, #Assad has lost ~70% of the province. The provincial capital is completely surrounded, access to M5 highway to #Damascus severed. Crossings with #Jordan captured.

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 8:26 PM

[golden plover]

https://fxtwitter.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1865137269486612931/en

everyon is confused by where assad is

we had rumint a day or so ago about him being at hmeimim with his family

[wild salmon]

Waiting for footage to confirm this: https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lco3yknsjk26

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

BREAKING NEWS - Syrian opposition factions control the entire city of Daraa, southern Syria.

Bluesky · Dec 6, 2024, 9:13 PM

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865143624213709262

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria: regime forces have disappeared from the city of #Daraa.

Regime checkpoints in the city are completely abandoned, people can just drive through.

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 9:17 PM

There's a checkpoint towards the Jordanian border that looks like it might fit the bill but it's hard to tell

All the major roads coming into Dara'a have checkpoints but one only one seems to be two lane

[karmic slate]

From the OSHR, posted on 12/6/24 (Don't have a time)

Earlier today, local factions took control over Nasib border crossing with Jordan after regime forces withdrew from it, and the regime also withdrew from several checkpoints and military checkpoints near the crossing at borders between Syria and Jordan, while the factions managed to take control over several military positions in Daraa countryside.

Nawa city in western Daraa countryside witnessed noticeable escalation, where local factions managed to take control over Al-Naheyah building, the criminal investigation building and the political security building, following a large-scale attack on the military intelligence division using machine guns and RPGs.
A young man was killed during the clashes and regime soldiers, who were inside Al-Naheyah building, were captured.

Meanwhile, regime forces stationed at Tel Al-Jabiyah reacted by firing heavy artillery shells on the residential areas in Nawa city and several towns in Daraa countryside, causing a state of high panic among civilians.
The factions announced their control of Al-Tayyirah checkpoint. This coincided with the withdrawal of members of “Air Force Intelligence” from their checkpoint near Al-Musayfirah town in eastern Daraa, where they repositioned in Umm Walad town, which is controlled by a local faction.

Moreover, the factions took control over the State Security detachment in Inkhil city after regime forces withdrew.
Furthermore, regime forces stationed at regime military barracks in Ghadir Al-Bustan in southern Al-Qunaitrah fired heavy artillery shells on Nawa city, amid the factions’ attack.
The factions also took control over Jassim police station and the Air Force Intelligence branch in the Daraa countryside.
This escalation came amid reports of directives from regime forces to withdraw several checkpoints deployed in the villages and towns in Daraa countryside.

https://www.syriahr.com/en/350761/

[wild salmon]

Update, it has been delayed to tomorrow: https://bsky.app/profile/rebel44cz.bsky.social/post/3lco5whyrzs2z

Jakub Janovsky (@rebel44cz.bsky.social)

just FYI:ther article with the list of Assads regime losses is almost complete, but due to the amount of crap that rebels have captured I wont be able to finish adding it all today - so the article will be posted tomorrow :)

Bluesky · Dec 6, 2024, 9:48 PM

[cold sapphire]

You fool, there will be more crap tomorrow too

[karmic slate]

By tomorrow the amount of data would have grown exponentially

[cold sapphire]

The destroyed and captured equipment of Sisyphus

[worthy bear]

The one I'm looking at is about 4kms before the Ar Ramtha Border Crossing

[karmic slate]

Ok, that article was posted about 3 hours ago.
Per the OSHA facebook page. If your looking for a timeframe on that reporting.

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1865154845025427566

Levant24 (@Levant_24_) on X

One day after the liberation of Hama city, the regime carries out airstrikes targeting residential areas.

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 10:02 PM

I think this might be around here....... 35.113486, 36.763054
I've got to bugger off and go out for an hour or so if someone wants to have a crack at it

[north acorn]

One must imagine Sisyphus counting.

[worthy bear]

Further airstrike footage in Hama

https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1865083673520865789

Levant24 (@Levant_24_) on X

The Assad Regime Launches Airstrikes on Hama

Twitter · Dec 6, 2024, 5:19 PM

[azure hare]

will the rebels take damascus?

[vivid lintel]

Kat we actively discourage people from discussing opinions and instead ask members to only share and analyze factual information

We do this because we want threads to be as informative as possible

[azure hare]

deleted it

[native pawn]

Does anyone know if Starlink is active in Syria?

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/farnazfassihi/status/1865196373752119333?s=46&t=rykFwsfpGuRs7pTdsDXSqw

Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) on X

Exclusive breaking news: Iran begins to evacuate military commanders and personnel from Syria in a sign that it has concluded it's incapable of saving Assad. An extraordinary development given Syria's vital role for Iran. w/ @ronenbergman

https://t.co/Dt5y0ApwUP

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 12:47 AM

[lone wing]

Hassan Abdul Ghani (HTS) chose 🎻🎻🎻:
“…we advise Assad’s gangs to reposition themselves outside #Homs and outside #Damascus, and even outside #Syria as a whole.”
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/8nUCMeoqP8EffCPQ/ (Syrian Revolution Network)

[lone wing]

I wonder why the maps don’t update the restive town of Zakia, southern rural Damascus. Footage days ago showed expulsion of regime forces. I only see one map updated (Syrian civil war Wikipedia article).

The northernmost violet dot is Zakia

Not in “Northwestern Syria offensive 2024” (as of 06/07 December)

[lone wing]

Expulsion: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=883892297256351&id=100069067656779&__n=K (Voice of the Capital)

[lone wing]

An editor at #Zaman_Alwasl was able to take a screenshot of a news item about a ‘treason and coup’ in the Syrian Ministry of Defense - the General Staff building - published by the ministry's official website and then deleted after a few seconds, indicating pivotal events in the coming hours and days, especially since the official website of the Ministry of Information published the same news item and deleted it immediately.

The deleted news item read:
Military source: Thwarting an attempt at treason and armed coup to seize control of the military decision inside the General Staff building in Damascus

A military source revealed to the Syrian Ministry of Information that an attempt at treason involving some officers who have relations with foreign countries was thwarted.

The source confirmed that the security services were able to uncover the plot and thwart it before it could be implemented inside the General Staff building in Damascus. This operation comes as part of the Syrian Arab Army's efforts to maintain internal security and confront any attempts to conspire against the country.

https://www.zamanalwsl.net/news/article/164912/
I hope Zaman al-Wasl has an archived page of the item.

[vital loom]

https://x.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/1865288751582236986?t=aWfZxhwspWcW9pxTOxzorg&s=19

Zeina Khodr (@ZeinakhodrAljaz) on X

Syria army says 'redeploying' in southern Daraa, Sweida provinces - first confirmation from regime it has withdrawn from southern #Syria governorates

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 6:54 AM

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1865343224891502882

Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) on X

Rebels capturing army warehouses North-West of Palmyra. Location: 34.614468° 38.252304°

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 10:30 AM

[lone wing]

I see, there are still forces inside, in the process of withdrawal.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/SYgfNUkLYL6Kvcyc/ (Syria TV)

[worthy bear]

Just be aware that there are some very graphic photos/videos of civilian casualties from the current round of aerial bombardments going around.

[karmic slate]

https://bskyx.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcocjoilwk24

[brazen venture]

The development of this offensive is dizzying. Just in the last 2 hours Liveuamap has added Palmyra under FSA control, clashes ongoing in Homs the city, and a Southern rebellion advance all the way to the gates of Damascus with an announcement that an operation to take the capital is beginning.

[vale vapor]

The pace is crazy indeed, they seem to be a few house blocks away from Damascus' military airport, and the presidential palace is right behind it.

[brazen venture]

Every hour there's new green circles in the red, and within a few hours the area turns green as well...

[vale vapor]

7km away...

[vale vapor]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2024/12/a-3-day-smo-done-right-2024-syrian.html
That title

[analog sundial]

I keep reading the SDF are supposedly loosely allied with Assad which I find suspicious? Is there any merit to that?

[wild salmon]

I am not familiar enough with Syria to say that there aren't any local agreements between the SDF and SyAA, but they're clearly enemies, and the latest evidence of it is them taking over Deir ez Zor.

In the meantime, a private plane took off from Damascus, currently flying over Iraq 👀 https://www.flightradar24.com/C5SKY/38430f7d

Here in adsb, the plane is registered in Gambia https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=09a05e

That plane has been going back and forth from the UAE yesterday

Further history shows more trips coming to and from the UAE and flying to many places in the Middle East, very frequently Syria, so I'd say it's not directly someone in Syria but with some ties with the country (diplomatic, business, etc)

[austere flower]

Can you point me to a correct channel should I wish to read earlier discussion, especially regarding Rojava? An analyst that I read, while good in operational terms, has a hate boner or turkiye bias (and calling isis desert enclaves sunni arab uprising), while I myself have clear pro-Kurdish bias (my father being one).

[remote moss]

It's complicated. I'm by no means an expert, but I think you could say that relations between the SAA and SDF are arguably not as consistently adversarial as relationships between the SAA and other rebel groups.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AANES–Syria_relations

Especially after the US withdrawal from NE Syria, and subsequent ethnic cleansing of Afrin carried out by one of the 2 remaining major rebel factions, the Turkey-backed "Syrian National Army" (SNA), the SDF reached an agreement with the SAA for them to take control of Kurdish-controlled towns to reduce the scope of the Turkish operation there.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2019/10/13/Syrian-army-to-enter-SDF-held-Kobani-Manbij-Monitor

I think that up until the recent HTS offensive, the SDF viewed the SAA as the lesser of two evils when compared to the SNA.

There's also a contentious history before 2011 of the PYD acting in some capacity on behalf of the regime when dealing with unrest and dissent in Kurdish regions
https://www.newarab.com/opinion/democratic-confederalism-or-counter-revolution

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/ramijarrah.bsky.social/post/3lcq2p5jjbs2y

Rami Jarrah (@ramijarrah.bsky.social)

DAMASCUS: Assad's forces, members of the 127th Brigade, have withdrawn from the town of Rankous in Qalamoun, which is very close to Saidnaya Prison.

The notorious prison is nicknamed the "Human Slaughterhouse"

These are extraordinary moments.

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 3:55 PM

[vale vapor]

SDF are stuck between Turkey who bombs them, Turkey-backed Al-Nosra, Assadists, and Irak who genocided them and threaten military action if they push for autonomy.

[woeful summit]

Apparently now on approach, losing altitude and heading straight for Abu Dhabi

[wild salmon]

Yeah, I think this is a nothingburger, at least for now.

[remote moss]

SDF commander-in-chief
https://x.com/MazloumAbdi/status/1865436360850506122

As our forces advance in Deir Ezzor to secure the area amidst field changes, we declare a general amnesty without exception in those areas. We call on everyone to cooperate to maintain security and peace. We count on the role of the people and tribes to prevent chaos and protect the region. Our forces are your support.

Mazloum Abdî مظلوم عبدي (@MazloumAbdi) on X

مع تقدم قواتنا في دير الزور لتأمين المنطقة وسط التغيرات الميدانية، نعلن عفواً عاماً دون استثناء في تلك المناطق.
ندعو الجميع للتعاون لحفظ الأمن والسلام.
إننا نعول على دور الأهالي والعشائر لمنع الفوضى وحماية المنطقة.
قواتنا سندٌ لكم.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 4:41 PM

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/faredalmahlool.bsky.social/post/3lcqdwsg3f226

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social)

BREAKING: CNN reports that Assad is 'nowhere to be found in Damascus'

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 6:41 PM

[azure hare]

he fled

[vital loom]

He wasn't there before

[azure hare]

https://x.com/NEDAAPOST/status/1865355498427498967

Nedaa Post نداء بوست (@NEDAAPOST) on X

🔴 عاجل | أ ف ب: حزب الله أرسل ألفي مقاتل إلى منطقة الحدود السورية مع لبنان

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 11:19 AM

AFP: Hezbollah sent 2,000 fighters to the Syrian border area with Lebanon

[remote moss]

Seems legit

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-civil-war-12-07-2024-intl#cm4ehedbd002g3b6nxdwf2ltc

[wild salmon]

There's a couple flights arriving to Damascus right now https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lcqemukq5s2u

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)

Inbound to Damascus currently.

Syrian Air A320 YK-AKH #778568

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 6:53 PM

[cold sapphire]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war

Who the F removed the brilliant Wikipedia map and replaced it with a livemap screenshot.

[wild salmon]

I think it has just been reverted

Yep, this was the edit that changed it, just a few minutes ago https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template%3ASyrian_civil_war_infobox&diff=1261740851&oldid=1261692806&variant=en

[teal whale]

AJ TV Channel Breaking News: Assad says he is willing to negotiate in order to keep remaining regions or for his safety.

Not confirmed yet

The HTS number 2 is currently in an Arabic language Twitter space hosted by @mshinqiti in which he states that they would not accept any negotiation which lets him hold any territory.

[wild scaffold]

I can't imagine why.

[teal whale]

In response to someone informing him of a Russian official's comment that "Assad is in danger", he jokes that "We're gonna recreate the Qaddafi video with him."

[ancient fog]

With Syrian rebels edging ever-closer to the capital, President Bashar Al-Assad is making a last-ditch attempt to remain in power, including indirect diplomatic overtures to the US and President-elect Donald Trump, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation.

One offer Assad made to the US via the United Arab Emirates is for Syria to cut all involvement with Iran-backed militant groups, such as Hezbollah, if Western powers wield influence to stem the fighting, the people said.

Another initiative saw Assad dispatch a senior Christian leader to meet Hungarian President Viktor Orban to relay what he sees as an existential threat to Syria’s Christian minority if Islamist rebels prevail, according to other people familiar with the plan. The intention was that Orban, a Trump ally, would convey this danger to the incoming US president, they said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-07/syria-s-besieged-assad-makes-overtures-to-us-in-bid-to-survive

[teal whale]

HTS Deputy leader Al Dalati was just asked about this on the Twitter space and said he doesn't know what to make of it. LOL.

[vale vapor]

That Qaddafi video haunted Putin's nightmares and fueled his motive to support Assad.

[teal whale]

I don't think Putin or Russia in general is particularly sentimental towards Assad or his well-being. Currently the consensus I've seen among Syrian opposition analysts is that Russia's only current goal is to ensure that whoever controls Damascus leaves their bases on the coast alone and does not align with the United States (something they've said many times in Astana)

[wild salmon]

Good thread from Michael Kofman on the future of Russia in Syria: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelkofman.bsky.social/post/3lcqep3obk22n

Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social)

Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/

Reposts

133

Likes

333

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 6:54 PM

[dim grove]

Are you listening to the livestream? I have so FOMO 😭 Thanks for sharing some of the info though!

[lofty brook]

Even by Trump standards, this is an astonishingly bad take.

[teal whale]

If there is a way to download it, I can listen back and write you a translated summary.

[dim grove]

Way too kind! I'm hoping it'll be archived afterwards and I'll be able to listen to it... or, since it's looking super long, get a transcript and CTRL+F for anything interesting

[teal whale]

Are you planning to machine translate it? There is a section in the middle in which they interview a dissident about her father's imprisonment and death in 2012, her Syrian accent is strong and likely won't play with with translation software, but the rest should be okay.

[cold sapphire]

I'm gonna chose to assume one of you wonderful lot changed it back

[wild salmon]

You can see who changed it back on the log I shared (spoiler, it's not me and it's not a familiar name 😅)

https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lcqisjzzu22u

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)

Central Damascus now appears cut off from the international airport.

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)
Greater than zero chance that with the southern rebels reported 5 miles away from the airport, that these three aircraft (once they've landed) might not be seen flying again for some time.

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 8:08 PM

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1865368498014171247

Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) on X

#Syria: Rebels started the assault to capture #Homs.
Several areas are already infiltrated. Clashes ongoing.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 12:11 PM

34.746744, 36.7144330

[cold sapphire]

Do we have any idea who the rebels on the gates of Damascus actually are?

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/KrystianJachacy/status/1865490033026756626

Krystian Jachacy 🇵🇱 (@KrystianJachacy) on X

Relacja syryjskiej TV z pozycji armii rządowej 🇸🇾 w regionie #Damaszek i #Homs.

Miejmy nadzieję, że to nie odpowiednik niemieckiego Wochenschau z 1945 roku. Są pewne oznaki stabilizacji frontu. Być może opanują sytuację wokół stolicy i na trasie do #Latakia.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 8:14 PM

[dim grove]

Nah I don't trust mt to be better than me either at dialects or fusHa. I figured I'd scan the transcript and then listen to the interesting bits

[worthy bear]

The latest map from Thomas van Linge..... the dude that never sleeps

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865489261090267325

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria MAP UPDATE: the *approximate* situation in Syria as of 07/12/2024 at 23:00 local time.

Please note that the situation is very fluid at the moment and the frontlines move very rapidly. This map is based on the information that has been available so far.

Download larger

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 8:11 PM

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865416418822439228

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria: footage from the local military base in the town of Kanaker in rural #Damascus following its capture by rebel forces.

Once again regime forces did not even bother to take their tanks as they ran away.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 3:21 PM

33.280129, 36.087670

[teal whale]

https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1865480811715137703?t=4fvHT4tRgjDvri4EejjJyA&s=19

Mazen Hassoun (@HassounMazen) on X

CONFIRMED: Massive chaos erupts in Damascus and its suburbs. Locals are storming detention centers, prisons and police stations. Several protests in Eastern Ghouta. Video is reportedly from Mesraba prison.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 7:37 PM

[worthy bear]

I wonder if burning documents will show up on FIRMS 🤔

https://x.com/Rim_Turkmani/status/1865472376755859464

Rim Turkmani (@Rim_Turkmani) on X

The notorious State Security branch of Mukhabarat in #Homs has evacuated its building, setting tons of documents—evidence of their crimes—ablaze on the roof. Friends in the city witnessed the evacuation from their balconies, and now, many in Homs are overwhelmed with tears of

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 7:04 PM

I think this is the Political Security Dept in the suburb of Al-Insha'at, Homs (was listed on another x feed but not confirmed)

https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1865494643040813377

Levant24 (@Levant_24_) on X

The Assad regime is beginning to withdraw from Homs as CMO forces gain ground.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 8:32 PM

New map in town!

https://x.com/Karybdamoid/status/1865498555831447732

Karybdis (@Karybdamoid) on X

Dusted off my Damascus city control map for the first time in 11 years! It's been a while...

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 8:48 PM

There is a bit of chatter about regime forces bugging out of Homs heading towards the coast.... nothing confirmed but would not be surprising.

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1865497964124283312

C4H10FO2P ☠️ (@markito0171) on X

Regime mass escape from #Homs city #Syria

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 8:45 PM

[wild salmon]

More footage of the SyAA retreating from Homs: https://bskye.app/profile/acarvin.bsky.social/post/3lcqktuqxfs2b

[worthy bear]

This could have been filmed in the centre of my town at 1am this morning, but benefit of the doubt (34.730768, 36.709481)

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865502221149864373

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

#Syria BREAKING: Rebel forces are in FULL control of the city of #Homs. The #Assad regime has been defeated.

Rebels celebrate around the clock tower, the epicenter of the Syrian Revolution.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 9:02 PM

https://x.com/thewarzonewire/status/1865490595948728428

The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) on X

Signs of possible evacuation at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Multiple airlifters have arrived at the base. 3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124. The An-72 is usually forward based there. There also appears to be a Su-24 on the runway. Major uptick in airlifted presence. Expect more.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 8:16 PM

[floral tree]

you know its serious when the rebels are doing celebratory donuts instead of gunfire

(tbf HTS has ordered its soldiers to knock off the celebratory gunfire given it does tend to end up coming back down)

[worthy bear]

Yeah I saw that....also just saw some footage of some dudes cutting loose skywards.... they obviously didn't get the memo.

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/AsaadHannaa/status/1865505971247706294

Asaad Sam Hanna (@AsaadHannaa) on X

This convoy of the Syrian opposition is entering the capital Damascus right now

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 9:17 PM

Trying to work out where this would be

[restive coyote]

same

[worthy bear]

Some pretty chunky irony here.....

[worthy bear]

Tough'un.... the positioning and shape of that vegetation narrows it down greatly but not much matches up....I was looking around 33.431029, 36.155138 initially but nah.
There's a bit of height in that building where the photo is taken

Not entirely sure that's not SAA either judging by the lead truck and a couple of the rear vehicles

[restive coyote]

good point.

[worthy bear]

https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1865516361767649777

Levant24 (@Levant_24_) on X

Leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani:

📌We are in the final moments of Homs' liberation, a historic event distinguishing truth from falsehood.

📌Fighters are advised to show mercy to the people, protect those who lay down their arms, and not pursue those who flee.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 9:58 PM

[vital loom]

Is this a bridge in the upper left or just a window reflection

[restive coyote]

That's what I was wondering as well.

[vital loom]

Could be a hotel where the photographer is. Entry way, parking lot with a Mercedes, ceiling in front of the window

Or a stadion

I mean I stead of a bridge

[worthy bear]

I was thinking some sort of station/eatery/depot with an access road

[azure hare]

is that my screenshot wth

or am I hallucinating

[worthy bear]

A question to the powers that be: - Are we ok doing geolocations in here or do you want to keep it strictly for news?

https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1865521220709503056

Levant24 (@Levant_24_) on X

Southern Syria Conflict Map

CMO forces make big advances in East Syria as well as taking control of Homs city after fierce clashes. In the South, Damascus gets encircled awaiting the final battle for the capital.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 10:18 PM

[crystal mirage]

Ok with me. This is going to be the main news for quite some time and new users will likely pick up tips from our experts at work

[wild scaffold]

https://fxbsky.app/profile/ramijarrah.bsky.social/post/3lcqrzepcjs2y

[worthy bear]

Will believe this when I see it.....it wouldn't surprise me though.

[teal whale]

https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1865524404358177252?t=jWGCMauCRH9GGNZgizbXOA&s=19

Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) on X

BREAKING — Senior Assad regime officers want to prevent the bloodshed in Damascus and there are signs of a coup in coordination with several countries, most notably Russia.

— Special intelligence sources to Sawt Al-Asima

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 10:30 PM

[vital loom]

Can you check this with earth? I'm mobile 33,5192179, 36,2690362

[worthy bear]

That looks very promising! + that is the biggest flagpole I have seen in my life

[wild scaffold]

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcquatex6c2y

(((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social)

Now even at Syria‘s main coastal city protests against Assad have broken out. People in the Al Rami neighborhood in Latakia on the streets.

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 11:33 PM

https://bsky.app/profile/qusaynoor.bsky.social/post/3lcqujvew5s26

Possibly good geoloc fodder.

Qusay Noor (@qusaynoor.bsky.social)

The moment the revolutionaries entered the city of #Homs and the people welcomed them

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Dec 7, 2024, 11:38 PM

[worthy bear]

I'm not sure if the density of the vegetation matches though?....light poles within the vegetation seem to fit... that mid-road sign (blue) could indicate entries to the hospital on the corner?
@restive coyote thought?

[vital loom]

True, I do t see how old the image is, that's why I asked. But the parking area could fit. Will look later today.

[golden plover]

https://x.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1865541513825964109

Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@FARED_ALHOR) on X

BREAKING NEWS - The Syrian army withdraws from the northeastern mountains of Latakia towards the city on the Syrian coast.

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 11:38 PM

[pale dirge]

Those trees in the median don't look very big. It could be put in recently. My most recent satellite view has concrete barriers. But that was April 2023.

[worthy bear]

I saw someone was following air movements...maybe Erredece
Is this the one that has been flitting back and forth to Dubai?

[wild salmon]

Yeah, it was me, seems to be the same plane, and seems to be more of a UAE than a Syria thing

[worthy bear]

Scrub that.... it is, but it's back and forth to Abu Dhabi - 4 flights a day

[wild salmon]

I checked it on ADS-B and sometimes it flies to Jordan and Saudi Arabia

So while it's interesting that it's flying to Syria now (I don't even know if it's going to be able to land or to take back off), I don't think it's very significant for now

[worthy bear]

Costume change!

https://x.com/danny_makki/status/1865549307308310742

Danny Makki (@danny_makki) on X

Syrian Military abandoning positions in Central Damascus, changing into civilian clothes.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 12:09 AM

[wild salmon]

Looks like a similar video but no. Claims of people rising up in Latakia https://bskye.app/profile/qusaynoor.bsky.social/post/3lcqtnpjxtc26

[clever igloo]

2003 iraqi army style collapse wow

And there’s not even a shock and awe air campaign

[old zodiac]

I did wonder if we would start to see this - once there is nowhere else to pull back to, the only option is to fight to the end or just dissipate into the general populace.

[clever igloo]

Assad must of been completely reliant on hezbollah

[remote moss]

https://bskyx.app/profile/leilashami.bsky.social/post/3lcqscrkxik2j

[restive coyote]

They could do with some cutting tools.

#1113364002756644874 message

[clever igloo]

the Lenin quote about decades and weeks comes to mind about this whole offensive

[restive coyote]

(((Tendar))) 😬 , but whatever. It is the only thing I've been able to geo today. Here I think: 33.524539°, 36.317819° https://vxtwitter.com/Tendar/status/1865555068272931066?t=ic6JKFIY2_dhcjk0sPHoog&s=19

[teal whale]

Many Syrians staying up late and specifically watching for the freeing of prisoners at Seidnaya prison, the most notorious torture prison that just now turned green on the live war map.
Edit: should add that thousands are estimated to have been executed there as well. It may yet contain evidence of the fate of many disappeared people.

https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1865560359366512869?t=ryk6ZzSpEOBiQn1XVdw2mg&s=19
Says "These good fellows surrendered without any resistance."

Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) on X

🚨 #Damascus

The Damascus Liberation Operations Room has published a video showing Assad regime army members surrendering at the guard checkpoints near Sednaya prison.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 12:53 AM

[remote moss]

Forensic Architecture report on Sednaya Prison, likely to get liberated in the next 24 hours
https://saydnaya.amnesty.org/

[teal whale]

Famous dissident who was jailed for a poem as a teen freed https://x.com/HosamYahiaAJ/status/1865566256587276468

Hosam Yahia (@HosamYahiaAJ) on X

المعتقلة السورية الشهيرة "طل الملوحي" خرجت من السجن منذ قليل، بعد ١٥ عامًا في الحبس بسبب تدوينة عن الفساد.

- أسرة طل الملوحي

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:17 AM

https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1865567397123346639
"The prison of Sednaya has been liberated, and the exit of the prisoners, and the takbir of the prisoners, heard from a kilometer away from the prison" he says

صهيب اليعربي (@SOHEB2019) on X

الفصـ.ـائل الثـ.ـورية تتمكن من الدخول إلى سجن صيدنايا وتحرير كافة السـ.ـجناء تزامناً مع إطلاق السجناء أصوات التكـ.ـبيرات

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:21 AM

[golden plover]

https://x.com/Al7khalidi/status/1865567899877785815

ابو احمد القعيطي (@Al7khalidi) on X

The Opposition has reach Central Damascus !

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:23 AM

[remote moss]

alleged footage of Sednaya prisoners being released

"Some detainees have been released from Sednaya prison, and other groups are being secured."

https://fxtwitter.com/HShaqrah/status/1865565220296433721

https://fxtwitter.com/hussamhamoud/status/1865568073815609400

[azure hare]

https://x.com/LawkGhafuri/status/1865567685532148112

Lawk Ghafuri (@LawkGhafuri) on X

Syrian regime soldiers in Damascus’s Mazzih are leaving their positions and saying “The regime has fallen”.

They sound and look happy :-)

That’s it folks - Syria finally toppled the regime.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:22 AM

[remote moss]

Sednaya Prison location if anyone wants to check: https://www.google.com/maps?ll=33.665,36.328611&q=33.665,36.328611&hl=en&t=m&z=15

[teal whale]

The origin of that video: https://x.com/Wolveri07681751/status/1865565491755942067/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1865565491755942067&currentTweetUser=Wolveri07681751

[fading canopy]

Possible flight of interest:
Cross posted to #maritime

Russian strategic/tactical airlifter flying through Turkish airspace to its air base in Syria.

https://vxbsky.app/profile/yoruk.bsky.social/post/3lcqvdcdfzk2f
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/rff8795#38442982

Turkey has historically restricted Russian military aircraft from using its airspace, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Turkey, as a NATO member, controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, and has generally been strict about Russian military movements through its territory.

[teal whale]

Reportedly regime figures leaving the ministry of interior:
https://x.com/MohamadAhwaze/status/1865569587112067448/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1865569587112067448&currentTweetUser=MohamadAhwaze
https://x.com/Habibahodroj01/status/1865570461783900341

Habiba Hodroj (@Habibahodroj01) on X

#عاجــــــــــــــــل

هروب عناصر أسد في محيط مبنى وزارة الداخلية وسط #دمشق عاصمة الامويين

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:33 AM

https://x.com/MohamadAhwaze/status/1865569587112067448

محمد مجيد الأحوازي (@MohamadAhwaze) on X

ساحة الأمويين الآن

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:30 AM

The above are both allegedly from Umayyid Square for geolocation checks

[teal whale]

More videos of this I believe https://x.com/Hturkmenis/status/1865571799288738130

HÜSEYİN TÜRKMEN (@Hturkmenis) on X

#عاجــــــــــل
وصول سجناء #صيدنايا الى دوار البحرة في عين منين

الله أكبر ولله الحمد
لحظات يدمي لها القلب

#دمشق_تتحرر #سوريا_تتحرر #حمص_تتحرر #رد_العدوان

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:39 AM

[wild salmon]

Flights heading to Damascus are being detoured to presumably Hmeimim https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3lcr2epc2222a

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)

The Iranian A340 has now turned NW and is also heading for Khmeimim Air Base

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)
Mahan Air A340 heading from Tehran towards Damascus after all flights have been cancelled from Damascus International Airport.

I wonder who specifically this evacuation flight is going to pick up.

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 1:22 AM

[restive coyote]

It looks like this is filmed from here: 33.515391°, 36.274712° looking SE

[remote moss]

I'm terrible at geolocation especially in non-English regions. Apparently filmed at the "Bahra roundabout in Ain Mnin"?

[dim grove]

That's what it says, and here's the location according to Wikimapia

33.641938, 36.297195

[remote moss]

"All these groups are for detainees who were released from Sednaya prison, thank God, thank God, the nightmare is over"
https://fxtwitter.com/MuradSyr/status/1865574147625033993

[restive coyote]

I can't even imagine what this must feel like.

[teal whale]

The airport is out of commission, panicked people and a guy messing with the scanners: https://x.com/sadak1900/status/1865578449009512599?t=0EWebfN33rlhNVTlsEpFyA&s=19

صادق عبد الرزاق العامري (@sadak1900) on X

الوضع في #مطار دمشق

#رد_العدوان #سوريا_تتحرر #حماه #دمشق_تتحرر
#بشار_الأسد #حمص_تتحرر #صيدنايا

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:05 AM

HTS cheif of military operations announces the freeing of the Sednaya prison https://x.com/AmerAlsheikh0/status/1865574929430618171

عامر الشيخ ( أبو عبيدة ) (@AmerAlsheikh0) on X

اللهم لك الحمد حتى ترضى
اللهم لك الحمد كما ينبغي لجلال وجهك وعظيم سلطانك

نزف إلى الشعب السوري نبأ تحرير أسرانا وفك قيودهم، وإعلان نهاية حقبة الظلم في سجن صيدنايا.

#إدارة_العمليات_العسكرية
#ردع_العدوان
#دمشق

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 1:51 AM

[vast blade]

This is more or less over, isn't it.

I mean, the offensive stage and completion of major goals of things that is

[azure hare]

the regime fell in damascus

[floral tree]

I think it’s fair to call it over for the regime now

[azure hare]

the only remnant of the regime

practically useless now

oh wow

this was, fast

to say honestly

[teal whale]

The regime is done. The Arab Spring isn't. Egypt next, God willing.

[restive coyote]

Slow down now 😅. We'll see in due time.

[wild salmon]

https://bskye.app/profile/nivcalderon.bsky.social/post/3lcr4xloork2f

[teal whale]

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/1865583029202165788

Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) on X

Two senior Syrian officers say that Syrian president Bashar al Assad has left Damascus to unknown destination- Reuters

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:23 AM

[restive coyote]

I'm going to take a break for a bit. Let me know if something needs finding, I'll come back to possibly fail at doing so, if needed.

[plucky moss]

It's over. Assad regime has fallen officially

[remote moss]

[golden plover]

last flight from damascus dropping altitude over homs

200m and less

[wild salmon]

I was about to share that, it's probably a tracking error https://www.flightradar24.com/SYR9218/3844aec1

[restive coyote]

I can't look away!

[wild salmon]

Seems that IL-76 is heading towards Hmeimim or even further north

Same plane in adsb: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=778681

It had gone back and forth Sudan two days ago

[plucky moss]

https://bsky.app/profile/ramijarrah.bsky.social/post/3lcr462acg22y

Rami Jarrah (@ramijarrah.bsky.social)

DAMASCUS:

1000s of prisoners have been freed from Sednaya prison, now flooding the streets, an monumental moment.

For many, the frantic search begins, desperate to know if their loved ones are among the living or the lost.

Either way, the "human slaughterhouse" is no more.

Reposts

215

Likes

461

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 1:54 AM

[golden plover]

https://x.com/MilitantTracker/status/1865588163822887386

Militant Tracker (@MilitantTracker) on X

🇸🇾 Breaking: A plane, reportedly carrying Assad, is making bizarre maneuvers! It’s plummeting in altitude and has vanished from radar—something’s definitely off!

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:44 AM

[wild salmon]

GPS Jamming as it approaches Hmeimim

[teal whale]

https://x.com/Abood_Dwehe/status/1865586171381739972?t=tEAszpn16OY_pYHn5yjngA&s=19
Celebration in Ummayid Square, Damascus

عبدالقادر ضويحي abdulkader dwehe (@Abood_Dwehe) on X

صوت الساروت في قلب ساحة الأمويين في #دمشق

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:36 AM

[golden plover]

https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1865590495638159759

Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) on X

The 3D @flightradar24 data of the jet widely suspected of carrying a fleeing Bashar al-Assad (via @ShabanianAram), if this isn't an entirely spoofed route, it looks VERY bad (for him), rapid decent after passing over Opposition held-territory near Homs.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:53 AM

[dim grove]

Another video allegedly showing newly released prisoners from Seydnaya. According to the caption, many prisoners are too sick to leave under their own power and emergency services have been called https://x.com/Gurbtwatan/status/1865589589315932452

Gurbtwatan ❤️💚 (@Gurbtwatan) on X

@SaaidThabit بـسـم الله رب الشام
آلاف المعتقلين والمحكومين مؤبد في مسالخ #صيدنايا العسكري أصبحوا خارج السجون بحدث تاريخي مزلزل
بقي سجناء لا يستطيعون المشي على الأقدام من شدة المرض فطلبوا لهم الثوار إسعاف

الله أكبر #سوريا_تتحرر

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:49 AM

[dim grove]

This is going to be the scrolling chyron on CNN for the next two hours 😂

[plucky moss]

We can only hope

[golden plover]

https://fxtwitter.com/TobyWBlack/status/1865591565764161794

https://fxtwitter.com/TobyWBlack/status/1865588067790094423

[pale escarp]

is any statement in that tweet, other than the image, verified?

[gritty birch]

especially in conflict zones with poor radar reception at low altitude, FR24 can be wildly inaccurate and this sort of claim is made regularly about what people perceive to be aircraft crashes based solely off altitude alone. I would be very conservative and put very little stock in what FR24 data is saying until we have visual evidence

[vivid lintel]

Who is that Tobias guy

Just a twitter rando?

[final sonnet]

GPS could be jammed, ADS-B could be spoofed, Assad probably not inside (probably left hours or days ago)

[remote moss]

This Toby guy seems non-credible

[gritty birch]

FR24 is very useful but only as a link in the chain of aircraft accident analysis once the crash itself is determined, trying to extrapolate anything from just ADS-B data is little better than speculation

[hard glacier]

That said, that is a very plausible looking flight path for engine failure

Or maybe landing at the airfield on the far side of the lake

[dim grove]

FWIW the pages picking up this rumor are mentioning the village of al-Suwayri (الصويري)
Example: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0BjRcjFQr7w9hLsM9HSZH15h5KnucR98qdgZdkkDiQvhizWXGcqxgFTgRr9K4Zv8Vl&id=61556137517898&__cft__[0]=AZWIeDQB4H1CbeXCAV9qtgYeKlwFz3lqpZwzfKtxCFC95VguD9rtwGbE_1DmDAkZw-E6snVd4BRPvp9tSbF7U1TrtuNmZ00kaajTTpkX3zU6tciUEIcxOpM5JWt2hImfsbZU8eMHKGdPA4Qf4gU3RE-4D3OjpI_71qFRP1cNDWtid6oRU3_e55KCE41FkdaqKe3_F9SIvaa5OyFjgoY8GXR7&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Not endorsing this btw, just figured it might help with verification

Updated coords: 34.745235, 36.460018

[final sonnet]

This data looks different / even more jagged. Any idea on discrepancy?

[gritty birch]

it is, but we are still looking at a literal altitude line and extrapolating from there. any number of other explanations are reasonable

[wild salmon]

If that plane crashed or had to emergency land, we would have visual confirmation of it soon, if not by now.

Until then, the better explanation is that it is jammed data, like many other flights these days that headed to/from Hmeimim

[hard glacier]

Coords are in the Med

[dim grove]

I was copy-pasting from an Arabic keyboard and the numbers got switched. Should be fixed - thanks for checking!! 34.745235, 36.460018

[hard glacier]

That is just 3 miles from the town on the map where the flightpath ends

[dim grove]

If I had to guess I would say an enterprising soul found the closest PPL to where the flight path ends and started posting about an explosion

[hard glacier]

yeah, possible

[karmic slate]

Regarding the ASBD Data from the suspected flight that was carrying Assad, downloaded and took a look the CSV data for that track.
While everyone has been focusing on the Altitude, the speed is a huge red flag for me.

Granted I know airspeed tracking on ASB data is not entirerly accurate, but man that speed is way off IMO.

[pale escarp]

what could explain that?

[wild salmon]

Spoofing (:

[gritty birch]

bad data

the numbers are not gospel

[wild salmon]

I recommend to contrast with the flight we tracked a couple days ago that was heading to Hmeimim, and then compare it with a plane that actually blew up (eg: fr24 data for Prigozhin's plane)

[hard glacier]

The speeds are wrong. Actual speed in the last set of coords is 400 mph

According to coords the plane flew 1800 feet in 3 seconds

[karmic slate]

Yeah that was the point I was getting to.

No way an IL-76 is staying in the air at that speed without stalling, especially when the plane is loosing altitude.

[dim grove]

I found an active FB page for as-Sawiri City Council, last post is from a 7 hrs ago but I'll keep an eye on it in case there's any confirmation/debunking happening from that end https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100087446004036

[karmic slate]

Speaking about FR24, this just popped up over Iraq.

US Air Force RC-135
https://www.flightradar24.com/3844a283

[hard glacier]

The Rivet Joint just disappeared too

oh nvm just site being weird

[karmic slate]

Yep, wouldn't suprise me if their site is starting to get a bit of traffic load, seems like they had a hiccup in their reporting there.

[wild salmon]

Nah, FR24 has handled far more traffic before (the IL76 was being tracked by 46k people for instance), this is just that it's not being picked by any ADS-B data

[karmic slate]

Yep, just saw that it is being tracked by MLAT, not ASBD.

That might explain why the data is so jitterry.

[wild salmon]

And that military planes may decide to be seen or not

[dim grove]

According to a Syrian friend, the PM of the regime just took to the air to announce the fall of Damascus. A video allegedly from inside the HQ of the state broadcaster https://x.com/Laila_020/status/1865605958023483681

EDIT: It wasn't HTS, it was the head of Assad's government. Here's the video: https://x.com/MazidNews/status/1865606604738986062

Dr.Laila✝️⁦⁦⁦● (@Laila_020) on X

📌 الثوار داخل مبنى الإذاعة والتلفزيون الرسمي ب #دمشق
#سوريا_تتحرر

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 3:54 AM

مزيد - Mazid (@MazidNews) on X

رئيس حكومة #بشار_الأسد: #سوريا لكل #السوريين

#مزيد

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 3:57 AM

[zealous sluice]

Israel attacking Quneitra?

[hard glacier]

Supposedly attacking chemical weapons facilities

[zealous sluice]

invasion https://bsky.app/profile/diplomatofnight.com/post/3lcrdpxnkgc2l

Emissary Of Night | ليلى (@diplomatofnight.com)

confirmation from reporters

Emissary Of Night | ليلى (@diplomatofnight.com)
Israeli tanks in Syrian southern city of Quneitra

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 4:09 AM

[zealous sluice]

https://bsky.app/profile/dropsitenews.com/post/3lcrezykc7c2r

Drop Site (@dropsitenews.com)

🚨 Israeli tanks have entered the Syrian town of Quneitra, near the occupied Golan, from the demilitarized zone, accompanied by shelling of nearby areas. This follows increased IOF deployment in the Golan yesterday, and the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime today.

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 4:33 AM

[gritty birch]

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1865618414581977299

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) on X

After the collapse of the Assad regime overnight, Syrian reports claim that Israeli tanks crossed the border in the Golan Heights.

The unconfirmed reports say that Israeli forces pushed into the buffer zone in the Quneitra area, and launched artillery shelling in the area.

The

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 4:44 AM

[worthy bear]

Typical....I go for a long Sunday lunch and Damascus falls ¯_(ツ)_/¯

[green mica]

Has anyone done a write up on how we expect to see HTS handle the country after this? They seem to be really pushing hard for reconciliation and including as many groups as possible, at this point I'm hoping the country will be stable with them in charge

[worthy bear]

I'm sure there is though I haven't seen anything as yet.....after the CNN slot, I can't see Turkey being too stoked

[lament musk]

there was a thread about this on blue sky https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lcl25jwtqs27

including this tweet https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lcl25r2ltm27 - the writer cites a sense of normalcy in civic institutions in Aleppo

but of course, as the thread concludes, #Hama will be a testing ground. And perhaps #Homs after that. This story isn't over yet

[wild scaffold]

Yeah. Assad is out and... there's a vacuum.

[dim grove]

After the past 10 days, it seems arguable that his whole regime was a vacuum, delicately covered by a square of one-ply toilet paper

[green mica]

Ty! Exactly the kinda stuff I was looking for

[faint kernel]

https://fixupx.com/peace_corners/status/1865629612488986955/en

[faint kernel]

Lat: 34.857492
Long: 35.858761

Despite what some are saying this statue is not in Tartus although it is relatively close.

[dull peak]

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13575

[full dune]

People in the comments were talking about the pilot probably disengaged the transponder before leaving Syrian airspace. The flight radar path before discontinuing looked funky but also we don't know if it is 1600ft above sea level or if it takes terrain into account.

@inbullitennews has some good footage of soldiers storming government buildings and Assad's palace (allegedly)

On Twitter

https://x.com/inbulletinnews/status/1865644055511908786

In Bulletin (@inbulletinnews) on X

🚨 BREAKING: President Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army crossing border into Iraq. Video footage claims!
#Syria #BasharAlAssad #SyrianRebels #بشار_الأسد #سوريا_تتحرر #Iraq #Damascus #Assad

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 6:26 AM

Need to verify this before confirming anything, sounds kinda bs at first glance

[dim grove]

I saw reports that up to 1,000 SAA troops had fled into Iraq but I'm too tired to hunt down the source. Maybe isw?
Edit: Looks like it's pretty widely reported. Here's one example but I also saw it on WaPo, citing unnamed Iraqi officials or the mayor of al-Qa'im

[vivid lintel]

OSintDefender is not a good source

[full dune]

Exactly, that's why I don't think it is true and gave plausible explanations

[lone vine]

https://x.com/timourazhari/status/1865585707609154017 (for path)

Timour Azhari (@timourazhari) on X

Very irregular flight path on this Syrian jet that left Damascus airport around the time it fell to rebels

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 2:34 AM

[hollow badger]

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865648865120309392

institutional handover is starting it seems

Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) on X

The new de-facto ruler of #Syria.

Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali, the prime minister of the (former) regime is now meant to head a transitional government. He appears to be guarded by rebel forces as he leaves his home to head to work.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 6:45 AM

[vivid lintel]

All the flight "analysis" Im seeing is highly speculative and just not very good

This is an example of lots of people suddenly paying attention to something and instantly becoming experts at flight tracking

[full dune]

I agree, assume it's fake news unless proven otherwise

[vital loom]

Even names we know. Feeding the hype.

https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1865648296410157479?t=9RVZbMakK_edjh6ImwsYyw&s=19

Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) on X

Last night we tracked a Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.

The flight took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.

* We can confirm that flight took place.
* The aircraft was old with an older transponder generation, so some data might be bad or

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 6:43 AM

[sage dragon]

That's from the last 10 minutes of FR24 data. I don't know IL-76s but it doesn't feel plausible that they can fly at < 40 knots, or that they encountered a strong enough headwind at relatively low altitude to fly at < 40 knots ground speed. I think the data is just bad. (Speeds were computed from timestamps and lat/lon coords, so if they're wrong so are the positions.)

[old zodiac]

It's just engagegment farming, not credible.

[vital loom]

eat this point its just rumint.

[lofty brook]

This region is so heavily jammed, the data is basically worthless. I really wouldn't put too much effort into it.

[tight lintel]

As an aside in regards to the jamming, I'm mostly a shipping and oil guy, but I have to check dozens of AIS trails every day. GPS jamming affects AIS, so any data around our ports in the Black Sea, Cyprus or Israel is nearly worthless these last few months. Google maps simply does not work, at all, in Limassol now; I've seen it first hand.

[green mica]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1865681181334720965?t=-uLsMlliFUELLmRHHI5BuQ&s=19

WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) on X

The Iranian Embassy in Damascus was captured and devastated.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 8:53 AM

This looks like it could be a treasure trove

[ionic pawn]

Can anyone eli5 how the rebels managed to get from attacking Homs to capturing Damascus so quickly

I thought they were 100s of kilometres away

[austere flower]

there are also guys from the south

[remote moss]

A woman's section of Sednaya being liberated, including a toddler. Very intense and emotional footage
https://fxtwitter.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1865662768881279428

[vital loom]

may all the assad apologists hide their face in shame

[karmic slate]

Oomph , the disrespect from the Russian Foreign Ministry.

https://fixupx.com/michaelh992/status/1865721558246858986?s=46&t=0qAvqb6FOvZFc7eoZBKfXw

[old zodiac]

Russian military bases on high alert, as they have simultaneously seemingly been completely evacuated

If you could read between the lines of classic Russia disinfo, Assad is definitely in Moscow

[clever igloo]

Tulsi Gabbard sobbing somewhere

[tidal oracle]

https://vxtwitter.com/drewpavlou/status/1865710254606139478

Not sure what's the source for this video but pretty sure its legit - there was a photo of Assad's Bugatti that leaked a few years ago that looked like the same place. I'll see if I can find that photo once I'm home

[lofty brook]

The Audi at the end has a partially visible license plate.

An Arabic speaker might be able to make out the place name on the left.

It does look similar to Damascus plates.

(reference plate from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_registration_plates_of_Syria)

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/yoruk.bsky.social/post/3lcs6pfsmnk2m

Bosphorus Observer (@yoruk.bsky.social)

Assad is going to Russia thru Turkish airspace?: RuAF 223rd squadron heavy lifter is flying over Turkish airspace very likely with the deposed Syrian dictator on board.

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 12:12 PM

[vital loom]

https://bsky.app/profile/covertshores.bsky.social/post/3lcrzmvimjs27 sidenote

H I Sutton (@covertshores.bsky.social)

NEW VIDEO

Quick explainer on implications of Russia losing navy base in Tartus, Syria

www.youtube.com/watch?v=opT4...

Likes

105

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 10:41 AM

Vanessa made it out of Syria, she just posted it. remember? https://x.com/VanessaBeeley/status/1366659804660457472

Vanessa Beeley (@VanessaBeeley) on X

It appears that #BBC #MI6 (I make no differentiation between the two) believed they would intimidate me by publishing image of car I drive in #Syria. Below is email I sent to Emma Rippon & @ChloeHadj and Rippon's reply. You can judge for yourselves if this is targeted harassment.

Twitter · Mar 2, 2021, 8:01 AM

[tidal oracle]

Got sent a full length version without the text

[lofty brook]

I couldn't recognise any buildings resembling that roof structure on satellite images of the Presidential Compound, but there are some promising buildings next to the compound around 33,5139605, 36,2383902.

[fading canopy]

Sanctioned Iranian tanker LOTUS (IMO 9203784) has reversed course in the Gulf of Suez. The vessel, reportedly carrying approximately 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude destined for Syria, is now showing Khor Fakkan, UAE as it's destination, potentially impacting Syria's fuel supplies.

LOTUS was sanctioned in November 2024 as part of the Al-Qatirji network, a Syrian company that generates revenue for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Quds Force and Houthis through oil sales to Syria and China.

Cross Posted to #maritime

https://vxbsky.app/profile/tankertrackers.com/post/3lcrzsuz6s22b
https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx?id=51878
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2712

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/yoruk.bsky.social/post/3lcsblhwon22m

Bosphorus Observer (@yoruk.bsky.social)

Russian stolen grain transportation disrupted: Tartus-bound Matros Pozynich is adrift west of Cyprus, waiting for instructions.

Bosphorus Observer (@yoruk.bsky.social)
Russian stolen wheat deliveries from occupied territories of Ukraine to Syria continue: CMC's Matros Pozynich transited Bosphorus carrying 27200mt of stolen wheat from occupied Sevastopol to Tartus. It’s unknown if the Assad regime will survive to see the unloading of this cargo.

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 1:04 PM

[fading canopy]

Details on this VOI trade with Syria: https://www.opensanctions.org/entities/ua-ws-396c1b3cea6459e8d1ec278225fefa7f4dbd9aaa/
It was subject of a May 2023 Bellingcat article authored by Ollie Ballinger.

[fading canopy]

Tartus, home to Russia's Med Sea naval base, reportedly under Syrian opposition control:

[DeepL Translation]:

#BREAKING NEWS
Syria's coastal city of Tartus under opposition control

https://vxtwitter.com/ConflictTR/status/1865751580068266245

[hard glacier]

You calculated the speed yourself, right? I compared two sets of coordinates and the speed was 400 mph

Also while there is no reason to trust the data, wouldn't jamming or GPS disruption look more erratic and random?

[brazen venture]

Liveuamap's view (currently) still has the actual Russian bases untaken

[lofty brook]

The ground speed is the derivative of the position time series. It's easy to calculate from the raw data.

[hard glacier]

That was my question. The raw data posted earlier did not seem to have speed calculated from the distance between pings. But it is easy to recalculate

[wild salmon]

https://fixvx.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/status/1865761105416438164

Netanyahu declares collapse of 1974 disengagement agreement on Golan, orders seizure of buffer zone

[hard glacier]

Is this buffer zone a previously defined area?

Or is he grabbing an arbitrary piece of land?

[azure hare]

there are no receivers in Syria to receive ADSB, closest could be Cyprus or Jordan or even Israel, so as the altitude drops, the signal has more interference in its way such as hills, mountains, buildings, etc.... causing signal loss and as static slowly leaks into the decoder, it can give wrong positions of the plane

if anything were to happen, we would hear about it by now

considering the conflict is almost being real time reported

[wild salmon]

There are ADS-B receivers in Syria, that data however is vulnerable to interference, and we have seen that before with military planes approaching Hmeimin

For instance https://bsky.app/profile/giancarlofiorella.bsky.social/post/3lc6t3bo53s25

Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social)

One of my favourite tools is this GPS Jamning Map, which shows GPS interference levels across much of the world

The map showed a high level of GPS interference in the Latakia area as of the latest update on Nov. 27

gpsjam.org?lat=34.77001...

Bluesky · Nov 30, 2024, 7:24 PM

[lofty brook]

Bringing this into focus again considering that gpsjam is being referenced.

[karmic slate]

Also, I know everyone is looking at the FR24 Data, but Flightaware also had a portion of the flight tracked (not as long as FR24 did) btw.

With that point, one good thing about FR24's data is that the give an approximate location of where the receiver that was tracking the aircraft was located, as when you sign up to feed data to Flightaware, they ask you for the closest airport near your receiver.

Take a look at the reporting facility, which means the closest airport the receiver is located at.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/SYR9218/history/20241208/0202Z/tracklog

[zealous sluice]

https://bskyx.app/profile/aaliyahxx.bsky.social/post/3lcsit4aeus2z

[fresh ore]

Ah, yes, good idea to destroy the evidence

[open geode]

evidence of what?

[fresh ore]

Well, we heard John Bolton suggesting Trump’s picks should be worried about what turns up in Damascus

[floral tree]

I mean I wouldn’t pay much mind generally to what John Bolton says

[hard glacier]

Is there evidence that this was an airstrike?

[violet owl]

It's been reported as such by the Guardian, although they mention that it can't be verified

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/08/syria-bashar-al-assad-damascus-rebels-latest-updates-live?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6755bf2a8f0896ed0c23769e#block-6755bf2a8f0896ed0c23769e

[karmic slate]

Besides some aftermath videos and posts and people saying that it was an Israel airstrike.

Also, I've have not yet seen any videos online yet of any explosions in that area, only aftermath videos showing those buildings on fire.

[open geode]

'along with a research centre where it had previously said Iranian scientists developed missiles' I got no beef w/that

[dim grove]

Do we have any footage or images from al-Quneitra? I saw reports of shelling and tanks in the center of the city last night, all unverified

[karmic slate]

Regarding the Golan Heights, take this with a grain of salt. But saw this tweet and article from Israel news sources such as this Times of Isreal story.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-deploys-in-golan-buffer-zone-with-syria-girding-for-post-assad-regime-chaos/

https://x.com/IDF/status/1865424194063700026

Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) on X

A short while ago, an attack was carried out by armed individuals at a @UN post in the Hader area in #Syria.

The IDF is currently assisting the UN forces in repelling the attack.

The IDF is deployed with reinforced forces in the Golan Heights area and will continue to operate

Twitter · Dec 7, 2024, 3:52 PM

[lofty brook]

Let's not speculate.

[karmic slate]

Yes I know they are a baised, but I saw this in the aritlce and figured it was noteworthy to share.

I’ve haven’t seen anything posted by the UNDOF on their website and social media accounts yet atm

[wild salmon]

https://fixvx.com/syr_television/status/1865785759661256976

#Urgent | Our correspondent: The Israeli army withdraws from the village of Rawadi in the countryside of #Quneitra after entering it for hours
#Syria TV #The fall of #Assad #Liberation #Syria

[floral tree]

apparently a relative of Assad (nephew, supposedly) has been killed by rebels? obviously I don’t want to see the video if true but does anyone know if that claim is authentic?

[pale dirge]

https://www.tv4play.se/klipp/238b5ebb4084dbe34888
https://bskye.app/profile/atseez.bsky.social/post/3lcnts665nc2x
https://bskye.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcsd2kob322y

Reports of embassies changing flags.

[wild salmon]

Yup, for the change in Spain it is confirmed, local media is reporting on it, and besides here it is on Street view to confirm the location https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4125894,-3.6933909,3a,36.8y,257.45h,109.95t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1snmw3oKqDzBUlYuEq2HqL0g!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D-19.951287394233546%26panoid%3Dnmw3oKqDzBUlYuEq2HqL0g%26yaw%3D257.44772217566344!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIwNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

[lofty brook]

The video allegedly depicts the killing of Ammar al-Assad. Considering the graphic nature, please don't post it here.

[floral tree]

yeah I’m very much not asking to see it, because I have absolutely zero interest in seeing something like that. I’m asking if people have determined if it’s authentic

ie: is ammar dead or no

[lofty brook]

I know that @remote moss encountered that claim yesterday, but I don't know about its authenticity.

[lofty brook]

I'm curious about this. Would an embassy have that flag in storage or is this something someone had to prepare deliberately?

Considering that this is one of the previous flags of Syria.

[pale dirge]

Me too!

[floral tree]

I have to assume they were holding it for a while and just sorta had to pretend it wasn’t there whenever any loyalists came through

[pale dirge]

It seems that there were lots of Syrians gathered at embassies around the world, too. So they could have gotten flags that way. Or diplomats secretly harboring it. Or a different one in different places.

Maybe some local media will come with stories later.

[tawny magnet]

https://aje.io/rwjkou?update=3372756
https://aje.io/rwjkou?update=3372724
al Jazeera has a couple pieces saying Israel probably bombed weapons depots in Damascus though who exactly did is still unconfirmed

[azure hare]

probably smuggled the flags when they realized they were gonna be liberated

[tawny magnet]

when was the last time Israel targeted Damascus itself?

[azure hare]

so that the loyalists got no time to dig to see if anyone got the flag before

[tawny magnet]

I dont know if this is unprecedented or common

[twilit flame]

One was widely reported three weeks ago. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/14/at-least-15-people-killed-in-israeli-strikes-on-syrias-damascus. It's pretty common.

[strange charm]

They could get the flag on Amazon probably, in Spain at least. No need to smuggle it.

[tawny magnet]

oughh

[vital loom]

Don't create #flaggate here

https://x.com/berlin_bridge/status/1865805148079173923?t=7iQii76LAgxBVvYUrI-6Pw&s=19

Jessica Berlin (@berlin_bridge) on X

Thousands of Syrians in Berlin celebrating the fall of Assad

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 5:06 PM

[vital loom]

https://x.com/BrowneGareth/status/1865775625274892700?t=meMThoy_7EnXtyoMEUDGhg&s=19

Gareth Browne (@BrowneGareth) on X

I am in Damascus. HTS have called a general curfew. The streets are abandoned except for piles and piles of discarded Syrian Army Uniforms and destroyed military vehicles.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 3:09 PM

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1865812134820471234?t=eDSF-q6HFx49qCj49nqe4w&s=19

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on X

Several Russian milbloggers report that a number of Russian soldiers were left behind at operating bases around Syria, and are now cut off and surrounded by rebels.

Russia appears to have abandoned them in its chaotic withdrawal.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 5:34 PM

[zealous sluice]

https://bsky.app/profile/justinling.ca/post/3lcsro33tok25

Justin Ling (@justinling.ca)

Well it seems that rumors of Assad's demise were greatly exaggerated. Kremlin-owned media say Assad and his family are in Russia.

Per RIA-Novosti: "Russia, for humanitarian reasons, granted them asylum."

Bluesky · Dec 8, 2024, 5:52 PM

Here's a RIA Novosti link confirming: https://ria.ru/20241208/asad-1988046832.html

[lucid scaffold]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t?post=asset%3Ab972fb40-dbf3-4cf7-82d5-7ca804314bda#post

[old zodiac]

Funny, I thought they hadn't even spoken to him? 🙄

[fading canopy]

Russian state media TASS reports a Kremlin source says Syrian opposition leaders have guaranteed security of Russian military and diplomatic facilities in Syria.

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/22612661

[floral tree]

any idea what he said there?

[lucid scaffold]

This victory is for all Syrians, says rebel leader

In Damascus, rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani has addressed crowds at Umayyad mosque in the centre of the city.

He says Assad's regime "imprisoned thousands of its own citizens unjustly and without any crime", adding that "today, we are rewarded with this victory. This victory is for all Syrians."
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t?post=asset%3Ae8365c67-485f-4c50-b3bf-49602c45d3bd#post

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/12/8/video-detainees-released-from-notorious-syrian-prisons

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/12/8/syria-war-live-news-opposition-groups-say-al-assad-rule-is-over

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/taking-syria-the-oppositions-battles-shown-in-11-maps-for-11-days

[open geode]

https://www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/vrijheid-scanderen-de-syriers-op-het-domplein-in-utrecht-het-voelt-alsof-ik-opnieuw-ben-geboren~bce5bcb1/ in several cities in The Netherlands, including in Utrecht at Domplein where a demonstration was already planned before, Syrians celebrated the fall of Assad (article in Dutch, includes pictures)

more pictures, including world-wide celebrations, as well as claim of new flag at embassy in Greece https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6338303/live-syrie-biden-verheugd-dat-regime-eindelijk-is-gevallen.html

[lofty brook]

Could you please post a link instead of a screenshot? Thanks!

[ornate ice]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-claims-credit-for-starting-historic-process-that-led-to-syrian-regimes-fall/

I've been trying to do both as their urls don't expand.

[jolly iris]

Demascus

[wild salmon]

Thread from Dara Massicot on what to watch if Russia evacuates Hmeimin https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1865854264980935160.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

[upper umbra]

Friends in Bamako and Nouakchott tell me the same has been done at embassies there as well. Video of the latter: https://x.com/ElMeyen404/status/1865861482254327907?t=BwVFcGjRawg8IMbdi3dwOg&s=19

Meyna (@ElMeyen404) on X

افرحوا يا سوريين
اهلا بكم ومرحبا دايما في موريتانيا
اهلا ومرحبا بكم في وقت السلم قبل الحرب

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 8:50 PM

[golden plover]

https://x.com/QUSAY_NOOR_/status/1865874432851648710

Qusay Noor (@QUSAY_NOOR_) on X

Iron execution press in #SednayaPrison .

After he is hanged, they put him in the press and press him to become like paper.

His body and bones are crushed.

There are blood channels under the press.

Then his remains are put in a bag and disposed of outside the prison.
#Syria

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 9:41 PM

[violet owl]

I believe the user has removed the post

[lofty brook]

I deleted that link to protect the privacy of the alleged prisoner.

It is obvious from the picture that they did not consent to having their picture taken.

[violet owl]

I believe the video itself is not real, as per discussions elsewhere on the internet

[wild salmon]

NYT entry on the Israeli strikes in Damascus today https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/08/world/syria-war-damascus/explosions-and-fires-erupted-around-damascus-on-sunday?smid=url-share

[teal whale]

Trying to validate this video: https://x.com/Rim_Turkmani/status/1865703787714789717

Does it look like here to anyone else?
https://maps.app.goo.gl/2okwkzAcywftdVfA6

Rim Turkmani (@Rim_Turkmani) on X

The central bank of #Syria is getting looted now

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 10:23 AM

[teal whale]

There have long been allegations of a crematorium for bodies in the prison, but I'd be cautious of claims like that one. I'm sure we will get more proper documentation of the abuses that happened there now that it is liberated.

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/archer83able.bsky.social/post/3lcto42xeyc24

Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@archer83able.bsky.social)

Out of Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria tonight.

🇷🇺 Antonov An-124 RFF8790/RA-82040
🇷🇺 Antonov An-124 RFF8792/RA-82037

Headed south over Sinai.

Bluesky · Dec 9, 2024, 2:21 AM

[teal whale]

https://x.com/hxhassan/status/1866033159642730537?t=f7Kiga2ALSBqU7S3YLpa3w&s=19

Hassan I. Hassan (@hxhassan) on X

Quite interesting that in Russia the Syrian embassy is raising the new flag of Syria.

This swift and seamless change of embassy hands in Moscow is a bit surprising. No change of personnel even. HTS reached out to Russia and said it has no quarrels with it.

Western countries..

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 8:12 AM

[old zodiac]

I'm really struggling to see why HTS is ok with Russia given... well literally everything? It makes no sense. Has there been any background commentary to whats going on there?

[fickle fog]

They know that intervention by a large power could derail everything. They are threading the needle between keeping the US and Russia both relatively ‘dormant’…with Turkey and Iran in the mix too as smaller potential and actual interveners

[wild salmon]

Unconfirmed: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/09/russia-seeking-turkish-help-evacuating-soldiers-from-syria-reports-a87269

[opaque swift]

Does anyone here can help with the Syrian prisons crisis after the fall of the regime? Thousands are trapped there. The jailers run away and there are more unknown prisons.

[pale dirge]

https://bskye.app/profile/richib.bsky.social/post/3lcuxuzlmys2w

[open geode]

https://x.com/syria7ra/status/1866093227444449315

الثورة السورية - ثوار القبائل والعشائر (@syria7ra) on X

عاجل #ديرالزور

المتظاهرون يهتفون بوجه ميليشيات الكرد الإنفصالية #قسد

الشعب يريد دخول الجيش الحر

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 12:11 PM

DeepL translation: Protesters chant against Kurdish separatist militias #SDF

The people want the Free Army to enter

supposedly in Deir Ezzor

[full dune]

Last thing a brand new government wants is to immediately antagonize Russia. I imagine they want recognition by all major powers to give them international credibility and prevent future foreign intervention.

[ornate ice]

They were in no position to take over on their own, without the guarantees that other militias would be quiet, so I imagine it reflects back door dealing between Turkey, Iran and Russia

https://fixupx.com/ytirawi/status/1866144626119184679

[brazen venture]

Russia isn't going to be able to intervene significantly any time soon, and their bases are sitting ducks. But regardless the new government desperately needs international recognition from someone --- Syria isn't self sufficient with food or fuel, so foreign trade needs to be ensured no matter what. Makes sense to keep all options on the table while they are looking for the best "package" for foreign partners.

[fickle fog]

Parts of this are speculative – what isn’t speculative is that intervention by a large foreign power – Russia included – could very plausibly derail Syria’s new political reality 🤷🏼‍♂️

[vestal rover]

https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1866170076069495062

Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) on X

Unbelievable. Wow.

Local leaders in #Assad's Alawite hometown of Qardaha have agreed to renounce all their weapons & accept the authority of the emerging #HTS-directed transitional body in #Damascus.

This comes after ~36hrs of dialogue in #Latakia.

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 5:16 PM

[teal whale]

There are reportedly understandings between Turkey, their only real state ally, and Russia on the status of the bases, and down the line it's plausible that there could agreements with Russia aimed at restricting further Israeli violations of Syrian sovereignty.

[fickle fog]

Totally! I’m not taking a position on what will happen – I’m merely stating reasons that the new Syrian regime is incentivized to minimize friction with literally all large external parties, to the extent they can

[zealous sluice]

https://bsky.app/profile/archer83able.bsky.social/post/3lcvc3qfjmc2i

Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@archer83able.bsky.social)

New Israeli airstrikes reported in the port city of Latakia, northwestern Syria.

Bluesky · Dec 9, 2024, 5:51 PM

[dim grove]

Why this Twitter account would share something like this with no context, no legend, no sources, and no explanation boggles my mind

(sorry if it's you - if it is I have some Follow-Up Questions lol)

[hard glacier]

for real, what does that map mean?

[fervent talon]

I am not the tweeter and I agree

[pale dirge]

Then... why post it here in the first place, but also without comment?

[fervent talon]

sorry about that

[teal whale]

According to @mohammed_nomad on X

"The death toll in Deir Ezzor city rose to 10 people and 22 injured, as a result of the SDF shooting at demonstrators who demanded their exit from the city."

Very graphic images on his TL so beware.
||https://x.com/mohammed_nomad/status/1866168850338713626||
He just detailed the event on Twitter Space, stating that anti-SDF people in Deir Ezzor compained of feeling abandoned by HTS/FSA which have yet to address the situation.

[vast blade]

Would have been silly for Israel to leave anything in Syrian that is even remotely capable of reaching and doing DMG to their assets, intact and useable

With not knowing who is going to take power.

[buoyant totem]

That's a profoundly myopic point of view. If Israel is worried about relations with its immediate neighbors it should stop reflexively bombing them. Terrorist groups don't need air capabilities to launch their attacks. They do need recruits and easy to produce propaganda

Christ, you're an Israeli propagandist. No fucking wonder

[brazen venture]

Incredibly cynical exploitation of a defense vacuum as it is, I think speculating on Israel's motivations is a little bit of a derail here

[pale dirge]

We are NOT here to discuss who should do what or why. We are here to deal with facts that can be verified.

We are also not to here to label each other, we are hear to work together to explain and verify

Please use the entire rest of the internet to share your opinions.

[twilit flame]

https://aje.io/yoj498?update=3375941 < "An Israeli security source told the Israeli Army Radio that Israel’s military attacked more than 250 targets in Syria in what he described as “one of the largest attack operations in the history” of the country’s Air Force." Also: https://www.timesofisrael.com/some-250-israeli-strikes-hit-syrian-military-targets-after-fall-of-assad-reports/

[next echo]

IDF soldier just shooting up the side of a building in occupied Syria.
https://x.com/ytirawi/status/1866248048797430268

Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) on X

Syria…

Soldier spraying a home in Quneitra with bullets.

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 10:26 PM

[azure hare]

is israel at war with syria now???? who are they against? asking

I am confused

[teal whale]

Have the people of Quneitra been displaced, or are they still there?

[next echo]

Netanyahu ordered a seizure of Syrian territory after Assad’s regime fell.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77jrrxxn07o

[next echo]

that i dont know sorry.

[gloomy badger]

And Russia have something (someone) that the new regime wants their hands on while Russia wants to keep their bases intact. Sounds like a deal could be made..

[dim grove]

If this message is from the IDF (it's written like it is) it would suggest residents are being told to stay inside and the IDF is not occupying al-Quneitra City as was suggested in some early social media reports #1113364002756644874 message

[gloomy badger]

It seems like they are taking the opportunity to degrade syrian military capabilities by striking depots and equipment

[open zephyr]

There's a conspiracy theory that the blue stripes on the Israeli flag represent the Nile and Euphrates as the boundaries of the promised land. this is a quick overview https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel#Israeli_flag_controversy and in some detail https://mepei.com/greater-israel-an-ongoing-expansion-plan-for-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/
With the territorial seizure people are saying that Netanyahu's trying to permanently enlarge Israel's borders to match this "Greater Israel". for example https://bsky.app/profile/zarahsultana.bsky.social/post/3lcv7p2mzec25
It seems to be the sort of thing that U.S. evangelicals and fringe elements in Israel are into, not necessarily mainstream in Israel itself. There was some reporting about some Israeli soldiers wearing Greater Israel patches in June, but it's very muddy how real that is. This goes into it a little https://israel365news.com/392182/what-ryan-mcbeth-gets-wrong-about-israel/
It's not safe to say the Israelis have long term plans to do anything beyond setting up a buffer zone and messing up the Syrian fighting capability, but this move is very likely to further fuel the Greater Israel conspiracy as well.

[gloomy badger]

This should be Latakia, not Tartus right? A lot of people want to claim its Tartus. https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lcvgjh62722h

MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

Tartus 🇸🇾🛳️🔥

Likes

576

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Dec 9, 2024, 7:10 PM

[next echo]

https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1866246703508058509

Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) on X

An execution book in Sednaya prison recorded 29,000 deaths.

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 10:21 PM

[teal whale]

Syria expert on its prison system, Jaber Baker, gave a long and painful talk on Twitter last night. Most importantly he described that the situation at Sadnaya is chaos and a team trying to document evidence was unable to due to crowding. Many people showed up looking for long-lost friends and relatives. He also mentioned that in addition to the destruction of documents by the regime as rebels closed in, there have been document thefts and losses, specifically mentioning Suwayda
He put out the call very emphatically that access was needed to all restricted military zones to search for secret prisons and mass grave sites, and requested satellite imagery be used to that effect as well.
@jaberbaker1 is his handle

Also the issue of SDF presence in Deir Ezzor is proving to be a serious fault line, being discussed very hotly by Syrians, both analysts and average people, across social media.

[jolly iris]

Was it recorded?

[teal whale]

Yeah https://x.com/ObaydaGhadban/status/1866196618321531280

عبيدة غضبان (@ObaydaGhadban) on X

https://t.co/vkkI7iDfXV

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 7:02 PM

[teal whale]

Related! https://x.com/putintintin1/status/1866046300371796002

Suhail AlGhazi (@putintintin1) on X

#Syria @sednayamissing the association of detainees & the missing in in Sednaya prison that consist of former detainees issued this statement:
Please be aware of circulating old and out-of-context footage and rumours

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 9:04 AM

[balmy crown]

Did IDF breach the buffer zone?

https://ara.tv/qf4io

[wild salmon]

Reuters mentions that Israeli troops are 25km southwest of Damascus https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrias-rebels-work-form-government-restore-order-after-assad-ouster-2024-12-10/

[balmy crown]

Yup, this is the only source.

Israel denied the Claim - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/10/syria-live-blog-updates-assad-rebel-leaders-latest-news-damascus?page=with:block-6757f4478f0805d974b9951d#block-6757f4478f0805d974b9951d

[wild salmon]

Should it be happening, there will be footage coming up soon

[teal whale]

Director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights told the Syria TV channel that the evidence so far indicates that the most of those disappeared by the regime are likely dead. https://youtu.be/jZMNm4YefNQ

[next echo]

Idk why the headline doesn’t specify SOHR as the war monitor referenced in the headline. But 300 recorded strikes by the IDF at that time.
https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20241210-war-monitor-says-israel-conducted-300-strikes-on-syria-since-assad-s-fall

[teal whale]

Pretty much every single piece of Syrian defense infrastructure has been bombed in the past three days. And several government buildings.

[vale vapor]

Should we make a new thread to separate the Israeli offensive from the rebel offensive ?
We're now looking at the usual forever war, not the lightning fast special military operation.

[teal whale]

At this point it may as well be one Israel vs Levant thread?

[vale vapor]

Basically that one https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1047898195155492895 🤷

But I meant specifically for the invasion on Syrian territory

[cold sapphire]

Were there any atrocities committed by the rebels during the offensive?

[vital loom]

Not that I read of, but it's maybe to early to say

[zealous sluice]

https://bsky.app/profile/aronlund.bsky.social/post/3lcx53hk4nk2c

Aron Lund (@aronlund.bsky.social)

After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.)

@manniefabian.bsky.social

www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...

Bluesky · Dec 10, 2024, 11:27 AM

[next echo]

Based on a title I saw (but didn’t click on) there was allegedly a video or two about SFA executing wounded SDF in a Manbij area hospital.

And the 2024 Manbij Offensive Wikipedia article has this on it (screenshot) - here’s a link to the the source ref in the paragraph, its in Arabic, the source mentions (via Google translate) factions loyal to Turkey carried out identity-based killing and looting, burning homes, theft, etc - https://www.syriahr.com/عمليات-تصفية-على-الهوية-في-منبج-الفصائ/740199/)

[cold sapphire]

Nothing from HTS though?

[next echo]

No, none that I saw from HTS

[dim grove]

Not surprising that it would be SNA/FSA committing attrocities, HTS is relatively well-disciplined but SNA is just a group of thugs who have a mandate to eliminate the Kurdish state. For the foreseeable future, the DAZ-Manbij corridor seems like the most likely place for crimes. There are also unverified reports that SDF forces fired on anti-Kurdish protestors in Raqqa and DAZ: https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1865805363150524862 ; https://x.com/AbuodMulla/status/1866130930727031184 (video of protests, not violent repression thereof)

Gregory Waters (@GregoryPWaters) on X

I'm told by a friend in Raqqa that the SDF didn't shoot at people in the city today. People were out celebrating and some locals started firing in the air. However in Karamah, east of Raqqa, SDF reportedly killed one civilian during anti-SDF protests

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 5:07 PM

Aboud Mulla (@AbuodMulla) on X

الثورة لم تنتهي،والنصر لم يكتمل بعد،هناك مظاهرات ضد عصابات قسدوppk،فهي لا تختلف عن النظام من حيث المنهج والأفكار...
لا دعم اعلامي ولا عسكري من قبل قوات الردع،وحتى الاعلاميبن المستقلين،،هناك شهداء..#ثورة_ضد_قسدوppk
#دير_الزور#الرقة#الحسكة#ريف_حلب

Twitter · Dec 9, 2024, 2:40 PM

[ornate ice]

https://fixupx.com/SkyNews/status/1866391651293241659

[dusk zinc]

33.0076037956, 35.8878551855 - looks like outside the DMZ to me.

[next echo]

Syrian rebels name Mohammed al-Bashir head of transitional government
Mohammed al-Bashir had previously headed the rebels' so-called Salvation Government in northwest Syria.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/syria/article/2024/12/10/syria-rebels-name-mohammed-al-bashir-head-of-transitional-government_6735906_229.html

[karmic slate]

Regarding Israel Airstrikes,

The SOHR, just published this article.

https://www.syriahr.com/en/351096/

Accoding to them there have been about 310 doucmented air strikes over syrian by Isreal Air Forces since December 8th. "The airstrikes focused on Syrian airbases and their contents, including warehouses, aircraft, radar systems and military signal stations, scientific research centres and weapons and ammunitions warehouses in different positions across Syria.

The attacks resulted in complete suspension of air-defences and put all targeted positions out of system."

[next echo]

yeah, it certainly seems like Turkey and their FSA will continue to pursue the SDF as well.
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/10-december-12-turkiye-president-erdoan-we-cannot-allow

https://bsky.app/profile/akmckeever.bsky.social/post/3lcxc3q6o5c26

Alexander McKeever (@akmckeever.bsky.social)

Unconfirmed reports of a large scale offensive on the Kobani region, so far I'm just seeing shelling/airstrikes targeting the Qara Qozak bridge (Manbij/Kobani) were SDF claims to have repulsed an attack earlier, Zour Maghar (a village across the Euphrates from Jarabulus, and Kobani city itself.

Bluesky · Dec 10, 2024, 12:56 PM

[karmic slate]

Regarding Kobani City, the SOHR posted this article earlier today, noting a Turkish Drone Strike occuring in that same region.

There is also this photo in the article as well, if anyone wants to attempt and Geolocate it.

It Might be a generic photo though from a previous strike, so I don't know if it is from that one.

https://www.syriahr.com/en/351111/

Aleppo province: A Turkish drone attacked a military site in Tal Mishtanour in Ain Al-Arab (Kobani) city, within SDF-held areas in eastern Aleppo countryside, where smoke was seen rising from the targeted site. However, no casualties have been reported.

[ornate ice]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/12/10/leading-syrian-chemist-assassinated-in-damascus-home/

[primal blaze]

There’s a video on ruzzian Telegram channels showing roadside execution of two men, described as somewhere in Latakia.
Source: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/147402

[gloomy badger]

I have also seen a video of 5-6 SAA soldiers being executed so it has been a few cases at least.

[zealous sluice]

https://bsky.app/profile/benedictgarman.com/post/3lcxiwwjftc26

Benedict Garman (@benedictgarman.com)

Evidence of IDF beyond edge of buffer zone in Syria. This photo captured about 0.7kms into #Syria, approx 32.996983, 35.884601.

Source: x.com/ytirawi/stat...

IDF have since confirmed its troops are operating beyond the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cj...

Bluesky · Dec 10, 2024, 2:59 PM

[teal whale]

https://x.com/mohammed_nomad/status/1866551718000906390

محمد حسان Mohammad Hassan (@mohammed_nomad) on X

SDF forces withdraw from Deir Ezzor city and opposition factions enter the city.

Twitter · Dec 10, 2024, 6:33 PM

[teal whale]

There are several videos of summary exdcution and arrest prior to execution of alleged National Defense Forces (Shabiha شبيحة) members circulating. https://www.skynewsarabia.com/varieties/1761181

Several opposition figures are warning against the mob violence and the impact it could have on the current relative peace and need for accountability.

[jolly iris]

https://spore.social/@leilashami/113629854300567803

[jolly iris]

Turkish drone strikes and airstrikes on the Kurdish-majority Kobani in northern Syria.
This has led to displacement as residents fear an ethnic cleansing campaign by Turkey and their SNA proxies

[warped glacier]

Can anyone direct me to something like a list of social media channels/pages/accounts to follow for insight into the situation in Syria right now?

Or maybe we could dedicate a place in here explicitly for the purpose of letting people upload links to accounts/channels which they find to be valuable resources broadcasting intel from the field

People are very welcome to DM me too if you have suggestions - it would be much appreciated

[vital loom]

There's a starter pack linked in here somewhere for bluesky

[warped glacier]

Really??

In this thread?

[vital loom]

I think so, if not there's def one on bs, I have seen it

[warped glacier]

🙌 thx man

I’ll try finding it

[wild salmon]

I'm sure I shared a starter pack here, but I can share it again real quick

[vital loom]

#1113364002756644874 message

I'm faster, hehe

Litteredsands also linked an expert today or yesterday, just scroll up.

[warped glacier]

Thx you two 🙌

[lofty brook]

Pinned

[teal whale]

List of locations for known, suspected and possible locations of prisons by foremost Syrian researcher on prisons:
https://x.com/JaberBaker1/status/1865829837698396252

Jaber Baker (@JaberBaker1) on X

سأنشر هنا في التعليقات التالية جميع السجون والفروع الامنية المعروفة وغير المعروفة وأماكنها على خريطة دمشق وريفها. مع اكبر قدر ممكن من الوصف لسجونها واماكنها.

Twitter · Dec 8, 2024, 6:44 PM

[faint verge]

I'm concerned that if the IDF is hitting so many military sites, some of these may also be places prisoners are still being held?! Not to mention the destruction of records. Maddening. (I guess this falls under speculation. Really just asking if anyone has read/seen anything that suggests that possibility?)

[remote moss]

Robin Yassin-Kassab suggests that (it's a good article regardless, setting aside any potential speculation)
https://www.newarab.com/opinion/free-syrias-first-days-good-bad-and-ugly-0

[buoyant totem]

I don't have any sources you don't but, presumably, Syria's chemical weapons weren't assembled. This 2013 NPR article goes into it and their potential disposal. Bombing chemical sites, after they're not likely to be in use, doesn't help dispose of the material. It just spreads it around the area. https://www.wgbh.org/news/2013-10-31/burn-bury-or-scorch-why-destroying-syrias-chemical-weapons-is-hard

[ornate ice]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjhot1hnkx

[buoyant totem]

one of the biggest and most visible targets has been Syria's patrol fleet. Israel is taking credit for 6 destroyed Osa-class missile boats so far. These boats do not come equipped with meaningful air defense for themselves and are close to 80 years old at this point. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx808q7lrno

[next echo]

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1866614428734722172

DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) on X

🇸🇾 HTS leader Jolani was directly asked if he plans to intervene against Israel’s attacks on Syria and its occupation of southern Syrian territories.

He responded: 'Syria will not enter into a new war [with Israel]. The country is not ready for another war. Our biggest threat

Twitter · Dec 10, 2024, 10:42 PM

tweet is cut off. In full:

HTS leader Jolani was directly asked if he plans to intervene against Israel’s attacks on Syria and its occupation of southern Syrian territories.
He responded: 'Syria will not enter into a new war [with Israel]. The country is not ready for another war. Our biggest threat was Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed Shia militias in Syria.'

[hard glacier]

No doubt they are attacking specific long range weapons systems, not random buildings.

But knocking out some pathetic Osa missile boats makes me wonder if Netanyahu is showboating at this point tbh...

[dim grove]

Especially bc his corruption trial started today

[north acorn]

Per this the search of Saynaya Prison didn't turn up nearly as many missing detainees as the families had hoped
https://archive.ph/NcctE

Five White Helmet teams, with two canine teams, came to Saydnaya to help with the search. They even brought in the prison electrician, who had the floor plan, and went through every shaft, vent, and sewage opening. So far, there were no answers, Abu al-Dahab said.
He said the civil defense had documents showing more than 3,500 people were in Saydnaya until three months before the fall of Damascus. But the number may have been less by the time the prison was stormed, he said.

[teal whale]

There have been false theories about hidden floors and rooms, contributing to crowding at the prison. There are also theories of other secret prisons, a matter that needs investigation. Others are interested in locating mass graves.

I think there is a likelihood that significant number of people ended up in refugee camps and/or were scattered to other nations and lost contact with their families.

https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-december-9-2024/#post-603896-SYRIAREGION
U.S State Department spokesman calls for all sides to observe the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, but also says Israel is just acting temporary for its own security, and also doesn't seem to realize that Israel annexed the Golan Heights and his admin recognizes it as Israeli territory so the agreement makes zero sense to invoke.
Very confusing U.S position.

[buoyant totem]

Reminiscent of France's position on the ICJ

[spice stirrup]

The longest cut I've found, Israel had not been mentioned [not in the question, not in the answer]
https://fixupx.com/SkyNews/status/1866540466591678731

[wild salmon]

This article claims the presence of Ukrainian drone operators deployed in Idlib to train Syrians, which had a "modest" impact in overthrowing Assad https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/10/ukraine-syria-russia-war/

[ember aspen]

The boats may be pathetic in the world of today but the p-15 termit they carry are still a danger to civilian and unsuspecting military ships.

[vital loom]

https://bsky.app/profile/dankaszeta.bsky.social/post/3lczgfx3o2s2k

Dan Kaszeta FRHistS (@dankaszeta.bsky.social)

My latest commentary on Syria, with some remarks on chemical weapons, in @bylinetimes.bsky.social

bylinetimes.com/2024/12/11/t...

Bluesky · Dec 11, 2024, 9:19 AM

[buoyant totem]

appreciate that someone is talking about the danger of improperly disposed of chemical sites. for the last 48 hours everyone has been telling me it's fine "Israel is just bombing chemical plants" and it felt like I was going crazy

[next echo]

Homs | ISIS executes over 50 members of regime forces in Al-Sukhna area
https://www.syriahr.com/en/351124/

According to reliable SOHR sources, ISIS cells arrested members that fled from the military service in the desert and Deir Ezzor after the regime of Al-Assad fell.

[vale vapor]

It's pretty telling that Israel never cared about these chemical weapons until Assad lost control over them.

[lofty brook]

This is a common occurrence when many (unpredictable) factions gain control after a centralised power falls. Compare this to the worrying about the control over Soviet nukes after the Soviet Union fell.

[vale vapor]

Assad was technically at war against Israel, who bombed Iranian positions every week.

[teal whale]

That clears up some confusion I had. There were clear summary executions and lynchings of alleged Shabiha members in some cities - unclear which element of opposition was responsible - but the videos of SAA detainees being massacred and the behavior of the perpetrators was very ISIS-like.

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/nrg8000.bsky.social/post/3lczln53fo227

Nathan Ruser (@nrg8000.bsky.social)

🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here aspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at...
& read on

Bluesky · Dec 11, 2024, 10:52 AM

[next echo]

Interesting, around the 8 minute mark in this video Michael Weiss (from The Insider) mentions some of the Southern Front militias that reached Damascus first were former assets of the CIA and Jordanian intelligence that were just biding their time for an opportunity to take up arms again.
https://youtu.be/yO8H2zGXvP8

[teal whale]

The New Syrian Army are a known quantity. They're a handful (a few hundred) fighters, who "held territory" near the US' Tanf base (which definitely isn't in Syria, for sure, don't look into it, totally legal). They raced to Damascus but they don't have the numbers and everybody is wary of them.

[lone wing]

If links inside are not yet shared here
https://eaworldview.com/2024/12/ukraine-war-syria-rebels-kyiv-support/

[teal whale]

I'm wondering, why would they need Ukrainian drone expertise when Turkey is their ally?

[vital loom]

They wouldn't strike russians

[fickle fog]

Ukraine is using these platforms in anger every single day. They’re also on the receiving end, every single day. Would be hard to argue anyone has more expertise than the Ukrainians in this arena

[lone wing]

There are videos shared by news outlets a few hours ago regarding MOC troops having found containers linked to drug production and sacks of Captagon pills in a facility of the then-4th Division. This division was under Maher al-Assad.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/pidyc8UbLrwKjb9r/ (Aleppo Today)
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/wYJs8UAs6F19UCp1/ (ar-Rafidain (Iraq))
The drugs and other items seized should be measured to check how much it’s worth. I’m expecting Captagon trade will collapse as Assad fled.

Raqqa city: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1003357401819000&id=100064342493001
More images from RBSS: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/sj7p6QbZPmzNNBeH/

[lone wing]

https://x.com/CarolineRose8/status/1866530516477866460

Caroline Rose (@CarolineRose8) on X

I’ve received a lot of questions about how Assad’s oust in #Syria will affect the #captagon trade, given the scale of regime sponsorship over production and trafficking.

First things first: we need to think about the big picture. There’s likely going to be a large gap created

Twitter · Dec 10, 2024, 5:08 PM

https://syriadirect.org/4th-division-redeploys-in-syrias-south-in-the-wake-of-the-us-captagon-act-and-arab-normalization/ (02/2023)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66002450 (06/2023)

Literal and figurative skeletons in the closet. This one’s figurative.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=pUrnEbnoOK8

[lone wing]

Mmmm when the southern offensive commenced, Ghouta Media Center revived itself for coverage in then-occupied Ghouta region. I don’t know if other media are shared by other outlets.
Announcement four days ago: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/gMKa9ajfWPc2dXPH/
The outlet once covered extensively until Assad forces captured the rebel enclave, hence the inactivity.

[tidal oracle]

most likely for FPV drones when Turkey mostly produces traditional airplane style ones

[buoyant totem]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/11/no-pardons-for-prison-torturers-syria-hts-rebel-leader

[faint verge]

Someone asked upthread if people were still in the "buffer zone" that Israel moved into. It looks like yes. But they're cut off. https://fixupx.com/AboMaryamSY/status/1866895686383403330

https://fixupx.com/AboMaryamSY/status/1866916254067605729

[jolly iris]

https://t.me/POPULARXFRONT/1541

[lone wing]

A freed prisoner found by a guard in al-Dhiyabiya (maybe in Rural Damascus) is believed to be Austin Tice
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/G2NvcdKzuNQbjeCR/ (Syrian Revolution Network)
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=514799774907383 (Shaam News Network)
I heard “Saydnaya” being said; maybe Tice was imprisoned there?

[lone wing]

Oh, it’s said the person found was indeed a prisoner but not Tice…
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/xFk17KbUZb6mz5rS/ (Syrian Revolution Network)

[vivid lintel]

https://bsky.app/profile/eliothiggins.bsky.social/post/3ld3yo7byl223

Eliot Higgins (@eliothiggins.bsky.social)

Claims regarding Austin Tice might be premature, but there's people on the ground working to confirm the identity of the individual.

Bluesky · Dec 12, 2024, 9:51 AM

[lone wing]

The prisoner’s name was said to be “Travis”.
Travis who?
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/hDwW7FGMX6FcSLUU/ (ash-Sharq al-Awsat)

[pale dirge]

https://bsky.app/profile/eliothiggins.bsky.social/post/3ld3zt2ci3s23

Eliot Higgins (@eliothiggins.bsky.social)

We've run facial recognition on this individual and Austin Tice's photo and there's no match. It appears the individual maybe Pete Travis Timmerman, who went missing in Hungary earlier this year. Working to confirm on the ground. www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/mpph...

Bluesky · Dec 12, 2024, 10:12 AM

https://bsky.app/profile/eliothiggins.bsky.social/post/3ld42uikudk23

Eliot Higgins (@eliothiggins.bsky.social)

Further confirmation it's Timmerman, not Tice. Might be a bit of a Kevin Dawes scenario. x.com/MattMcBradle...

Bluesky · Dec 12, 2024, 10:30 AM

[lone wing]

The origin state is said to be Missouri
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/iPVBJ3BeLuJSiYft/ (Syria TV)

[urban ginkgo]

Clarissa also said it's not him https://x.com/clarissaward/status/1867144288221736990?t=wthDTS6wXeEjhWf3oarLqw&s=19

Clarissa Ward (@clarissaward) on X

This is 100% not Austin Tice. I have no idea who it is but it is not Austin.

Twitter · Dec 12, 2024, 9:47 AM

[lone wing]

al-Arabiya connects the story: Travis Timmerman went to Syria several months ago for a pilgrimage
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/gN19Y6a6sRDVdpAg/

Anadolu: he was detained in Far Falastin prison
https://www.facebook.com/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/travis-timmerman-syria-american-man-found-freed-prison-assad-ouster/

[lone wing]

Horan Free League founder Muhammad Ahmad al-Hajj Ali, known as Muhammad Abu Horan, was abducted in Baramkeh, Damascus in January 2013 and is announced killed in Saydnaya prison.
HFL press release: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/jyWpMYB1ybZwrwEw/

[dim grove]

A former prisoner who was kept next to Tice as recently as 2022 fears he was kept in the intelligence directorate, which was allegedly destroyed in Israeli airstrikes on Sunday

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/i-was-in-the-same-syrian-prison-as-austin-tice-he-was-very-much-alive-d7mkxj0kx

[floral tree]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/11/world/video/syrian-prisoner-freed-clarissa-ward-digvid really very moving footage of a prisoner being freed

[wild salmon]

New thread from Michael Kofman updating on Russia's presence in Syria https://bsky.app/profile/michaelkofman.bsky.social/post/3ld4hrnycpk2e

Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social)

Brief updated thoughts on RF in Syria. Russian navy seems to be parked 8-13km off Tartus concerned about ship vulnerability. Russian forces are assembling in Khmeimim airbase for what looks like a drawdown with several An-124 having made pick ups there in recent days. 1/

Bluesky · Dec 12, 2024, 2:21 PM

[karmic thistle]

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1866525453466607929

DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) on X

🇸🇾 Black flags of ISIS seen in Latakia, Syria.

Twitter · Dec 10, 2024, 4:48 PM

https://x.com/FORTRESSMAXXING/status/1866511173434352097

Ruslan روسلان (@FORTRESSMAXXING) on X

Insane massacres going on in Latakia and Homs countryside right now. Horrible footage.

Everyone knew this was going to happen.

Twitter · Dec 10, 2024, 3:51 PM

[karmic thistle]

Anyone know if there's much credence to these types of reports (ignoring the tankiness of the accounts posting them)?

[dim grove]

This is the second post I've seen recently from DD_Geopolitics, who's a well known Russian propagandist. I would encourage anyone sharing the content to fact check and/or find another source

[dim grove]

I don't know about the second one though!

[karmic thistle]

some of the accounts circulating this stuff are reposting each other and/or well-known tankies. but am just trying to grasp what is being underreported by more reliable outlets in all the exuberance.

[dim grove]

I have no desire to watch the video so I'll be of limited help. However, based on the text the interim government's explanation seems to be that they were pursuing a group of military officers associated with the old regime. It's still definitely extrajudicial killing, and the men were almost certainly Alawites, but "targeted extrajudicial killing of regime officers" is a different story than "summary executions of Alawites."

Sorry, I forgot to include the link: https://www.almayadeen.net/latestnews/2024/12/10/سوريا--إدارة-العمليات-العسكرية-بسوريا--الاشتباك-وتطويق-مجموع

[vivid lintel]

Hi -- no, if the video shows graphic violence, do not share it here

[dim grove]

Thank you so much! Super important work. Hopefully SOHR will weigh in soon, but I'm sure a lot of the people who would normally be doing HR monitoring on Syria have their hands full with the stuff coming out about the prisons. There are no shortage of crimes to uncover 😭

[karmic thistle]

thanks for the context. both the [deleted] video link and the news were from 10 Dec describing Rabia, so it's conceivable that they relate to the same event with a still from the video. it's the same event.

[karmic thistle]

found the English site version
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/armed-groups-in-syria-carry-out-summary-executions-in-lataki

https://x.com/ainiladra/status/1866474440990560680

Also some claims like in this tweet about ||"beatings to death of old & young"|| but not seeing video/photo evidence or widespread reporting on it.

[dim grove]

I just looked up "اللاذقية شبيحة" on X and there's a video going around allegedly showing three accused regime jailers/torturers being apprehended in Latakia (again, didn't watch until the end but I'm sure nothing good happened to them). So maybe that's what it's referring to.

[visual vortex]

Wanted to share it here too: I made a post for trying to geolocate the video of Austin Tice in captivity from back in 2012 https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1316803081358278746

[faint verge]

Looks like Israeli forces are indeed pushing people out of the buffer zone. https://fixupx.com/NaksBilal/status/1867175178108829810

I've also seen a few posts about "atrocities" but in at least one case, it was illustrated with a video from 2017. I wonder if there should be a separate disinfo channel, as for Israel-Palestine?

[faint verge]

This struck me as all very strange. Why does he say "I'm a civilian"? Why is he completely alone in a giant cell? My most generous interpretation is that this is actually a prison guard who was stuck in there after everyone else fled, but he doesn't want to be perceived as a guard.

[half hornet]

Felt the same for me. the shock also seemed some what fake

[teal whale]

Yeah, the general reaction even by Syrians is that it's all for show. Not the first time Ward has been involved in such stunts.

The identity of "Ceasar", the man who smuggled images out of regime prisons of torture and mass killings has been revealed. His report was very impactful and the US 2019 sanctions package was named after his alias.
https://aawsat.news/z5arm

[restive swallow]

Any sources on how far in the IDF has encroached into Syria over the past week? Seeing a lot of wild claims

[candid steppe]

Hi, is there any plans to investigate about the secret prisons Assad is meant to have had? I know they found everyone in Sednaya but I read that they also built prisons under universities and they don't know where they all are

[dim grove]

#1113364002756644874 message

Littered sands linked to a list of suspected prisons a few days ago!

[faint verge]

I think the man pictured/interviewed is "Sami" actually, just for clarity.

There have been tweets circulating showing an old man in a hospital gown, claiming it's the Orthodox Metropolitan of Aleppo, Paul Yazigi, who was kidnapped years ago, and recently found in a Syrian prison. But: "The Patriarchate promptly conducted an investigation and subjected the individual in question to thorough medical and scientific examination in the hospital" and it is not the same man. https://orthodoxtimes.com/patriarchate-of-antioch-metropolitan-paul-is-not-depicted-in-circulating-photo-upd/

[faint verge]

And this tweet is getting Community Note-d. I hadn't seen this clip yet (only saw the one in the jail cell). It does seem odd that he's not in any pain from the daylight. https://fixupx.com/cnnipr/status/1866986427159830708

[crystal mirage]

Just an idea - they did have the camera on him for a while and I assume lights with that camera. I wonder if that made the transition to daylight easier

[pale dirge]

The cell was lit, wasn’t it? He hadn’t seen daylight, but that doesn’t mean he was kept in darkness.

[vital loom]

Must say me too. Too many things don't match up.

[teal whale]

Must be some political context for this video? https://x.com/SameralAtrush/status/1867436576009334922

Samer Al-Atrush (@SameralAtrush) on X

Massive Russian military convoy on Damascus Homs highway

Twitter · Dec 13, 2024, 5:09 AM

[teal whale]

Oh I missed this: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-contact-with-syrian-rebels-hopes-keep-military-bases-interfax-reports-2024-12-12/
Would have thought that Russia would be non grata in Syria. But Russian + Turkish protection from further Israeli bombings down the line has also been discussed.

[gloomy badger]

Agree. he can still be a prisoner. But he probably havent been in the deepest dungeons so to speak. Beard is still pretty well trimmed etc.

[jolly iris]

To answer that would be speculation which is discouragedin this server

[golden plover]

https://x.com/PatrickHilsman/status/1867456455579763122

Patrick Hilsman 🇺🇦🇱🇧🇵🇸 🚜-♥️🍉🌻 (@PatrickHilsman) on X

So @CommanderNizar + I have been reviewing the text of documents purportedly captured from Syrian regime intelligence that have been circulating. We can’t authentic them so we compared the text to known IAF strikes to see what stands out.
1. The author is, at minimum, well-read

Twitter · Dec 13, 2024, 6:28 AM

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3ld6pm6ahis2b

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)

The Russian S400 is definitely leaving Khmeimim Air Base.

The drone video from yesterday shows that they have packed up their 91N6E radar and it was parked on the apron ready to be loaded onto an AN-124.

Bluesky · Dec 13, 2024, 11:47 AM

Kofman corroborates this: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelkofman.bsky.social/post/3ld6qp7udk22v

Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social)

Update. A larger number of Russian transport aircraft can now be seen at Khmeimim. The S-400 battery is packing up for transport. The tactical aviation is still there, but there is a withdrawal under way.

Bluesky · Dec 13, 2024, 12:06 PM

[jolly iris]

https://t.me/POPULARXFRONT/1543

[golden plover]

sharing the upscaled versions of the letters, i found these upscale settings to make the letters most legible, they still confuse the ai translators a lot

working on getting a full proper translation, the one we have right now isnt perfect

[analog sundial]

people are commenting there are lots of things that don’t add up about this, are we sure that’s real?

[vivid lintel]

FWIW I'm not comfortable with the idea of "debunking" a video like that for a couple of reasons:

1. People react strangely to stress. People will do things that are weird, counter-intuitive, illogical, etc. when they are under stress. That goes for everyone in that video: Clarissa, the prisoner, and the soldier. So I've never been a fan of watching videos of people in stressful situations and going, "The way he cried is weird" or "The way he didn't cry is weird" for this reason.

2. With #1 above in mind, confirmation bias is a very real threat here. If we watch the video with the mission of picking out "weird things that don't add up", we'll find lots. And how much of that is confirmation bias (keeping #1 above in mind) is a real pitfall

One way to work through a video like that would be to ID the prisoner, but that's the sort of work that we don't allow here in the server due to the risk of misidentification

[dim grove]

If you're familiar with Aymenn al-Tamimi, he's an incredible resource on Syria and ISIS and Islamic Spain, and like a bunch of other random things? His substack is fantastic at interviewing ordinary people on the ground to get their anecdotal take on the situation. A wonderful counter balance to media and even OSINT approaches. Considering giving him my 💸 so I can read the whole article. But his take on these communal violence incidents so far is that:

"Incidents of sectarian abuse and killing should be highlighted, but it seems as though supporters of the ‘resistance axis’ in particular seem to be fishing for any such news regardless of its veracity, not so much out of concern for those minorities but rather a desire to feel vindicated."

Thought that was an interesting take. He goes on to interview a Shi'ite leader in Damascus (location of the Sayyida Zainab shrine, an important Shi'ite pilgrimage location):

https://www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-sayyida-zaynab-shrine-and-shia

[dim grove]

I saw the Eliot RT'ed these but has anyone seen the original source? I can't imagine why you would put something like this in writing and keep it lying around for over a decade - seems like a red flag https://bsky.app/profile/derparrot.bsky.social/post/3ld5hsrqvck2r

Kraut (@derparrot.bsky.social)

In 2012, a year into anti-government protests, terrorist bombings happened in Damascus. Assad used those to justify a military crack down, starting the civil war. Documents now found after the revolution now reveal these bombings were false flag attacks, carried out by Syrian intelligence services.

Likes

271

Bluesky · Dec 12, 2024, 11:55 PM

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/paulmcleary.bsky.social/post/3ld7dwowy6s2t

Paul McLeary (@paulmcleary.bsky.social)

NEW: Maxar is out with new images of Russia's Khmeimim airbase showing transport planes loading gear, and Ka-52 attack helos & an S-400 air defense unit being dismantled

Bluesky · Dec 13, 2024, 5:51 PM

[teal whale]

Those images of the alleged documents are from 2012, when they were leaked to Al Arabiya news channel, which is why it says "Al Arabiya exclusive" on them. https://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012%2F09%2F30%2F241051

[fervent talon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2yibRONY08

this was uploaded today^ just sharing

[faint verge]

Thanks! I remembered news (or maybe I just remembered my cynical speculation) from 2012 that this was possibly done by the regime but not that there were documents. I’ve gotten so wary of cooked-up Arabic documents, I veered toward thinking these were fake, including the Al Arabiya watermarks! Interesting that they’re being recirculated as being “now found.”

[safe vortex]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/search-us-journalist-austin-tice-clue-11-years-ago-2024-12-13/

[sinful belfry]

https://x.com/jagodagrondecka/status/1867542111307923918

Jagoda Grondecka (@jagodagrondecka) on X

Narkotyki były przechowywane i szmuglowane https://t.co/nV0rot963B. w częściach samochodowych czy sztucznych owocach. 🎥 @CollinMayfield3 , a relaca wkrótce w @gazeta_wyborcza

Twitter · Dec 13, 2024, 12:08 PM

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3ldbnrtcqzk25

Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social)

Follow-up: a Syrian Il-76T at Khmeimim in a recent drone video.

Moderate-high confidence it is YK-ATA. There hasn't been any observed flight data from another Syrian Il-76 since the flight that started this thread. Sentinel-2 (12/10) & LandSat 8/9 (12/9) show an Il-76-sized plane in same spot.

Bluesky · Dec 14, 2024, 3:52 PM

[zealous sluice]

https://bsky.app/profile/brandonfriedman.bsky.social/post/3ldbosilck22a

Brandon Friedman (@brandonfriedman.bsky.social)

Talk about burying the lede. At the very end of the story: "Almost a week after Assad’s ouster, some U.S. officials fear that Tice could have been killed during a recent round of Israeli airstrikes."

Bluesky · Dec 14, 2024, 4:10 PM

[open geode]

do read the next sentence in the article, it mentions another possibility is he is held underground in a cell and that he is without air as the Assad administration cut off electricity before Assad fled

Here is the complete quote: "Almost a week after Assad’s ouster, some U.S. officials fear that Tice could have been killed during a recent round of Israeli airstrikes. Officials are also concerned that if Tice was being held underground in a cell, he may have run out of breathable air as Assad's forces shut off the electricity in many of the prisons in Damascus before the president fled."

it is a footnote in the article because it is nothing of substance, just hearsay and speculation (of unnamed officials)

[teal whale]

https://www.reuters.com/world/far-too-early-lift-us-sanctions-syria-lawmakers-say-2024-12-13/

[faint kernel]

https://x.com/putintintin1/status/1868006974727537024

Suhail AlGhazi (@putintintin1) on X

#Syria cable to Assad from head of General Security Branch Hussam Luqa, under US\EU sanctions, dated on December 5 saying he had a phone call with head of Italian Intelligence Service general Giovanni Cavarelli where the General offers #Italy support to Assad and importance of

Twitter · Dec 14, 2024, 6:55 PM

[teal whale]

https://x.com/theiachatelle/status/1867993708614041649

Theia Chatelle (@theiachatelle) on X

I was in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights yesterday, and to say the project of "Greater Israel" has begun would be to put it lightly.

Israeli troops have swarmed Druze villages and now declared they will indefinitely occupy the Syrian side of Mount Hermon.

Twitter · Dec 14, 2024, 6:03 PM

[teal whale]

Israel destroys road and water infrastructure in Quneitra https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/12/15/syria-live-news-israels-unjustified-escalation-harming-syrias-recovery

Rebel offensive is essentially over with SDF-HTS reproachment starting, maybe new internal security developments and Israeli expansionism deserve their own threads

[vital loom]

https://verify-sy.com/en/details/10562/Did-CNN-Fabricate-the-Story-of--Freeing-a-Prisoner-from-a-Secret-Jail--

[fickle fog]

Cc @vivid lintel

[fickle fog]

cc @vital loom

[vital loom]

Yes? This is an award winning Organisation, I think that's ok to share. You could have used modmail.

[lone wing]

Verify.sy has been debunking Assad propaganda claims for the longest time, as well as misinformation from other sides.

[vivid lintel]

The article does what I said was the way to debunk this, which is to figure out who the prisoner was

I'm not familiar with the source but seems like a good faith attempt on its face

[lucid spire]

if anyone else verifies the name please ping me, very interested if this is correct

[lucid spire]

https://x.com/AsaadHannaa/status/1868296770696187943?t=TVYepHHAylhYxnQKimmCHQ&s=19
@vital loom

Asaad Sam Hanna (@AsaadHannaa) on X

The alleged prisoner who was found by @CNN reporter @clarissaward in Damascus is Salama Mohammad Salama, he’s a junior officer at Assad intelligence, his office was in Albayyada in my city Homs.
He used to blackmail the families to make money of their kids.

Twitter · Dec 15, 2024, 2:07 PM

[ornate ice]

https://x.com/ClaudaTanios/status/1868289206013001818

Clauda Tanios (@ClaudaTanios) on X

#BREAKING Israel's government approves plan to expand settlements on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, PM Netanyahu's office says PM acted 'in light of the war and the new front facing Syria' and out of a desire to double the Israeli population on the Golan.

Twitter · Dec 15, 2024, 1:37 PM

[hard glacier]

...

[azure hare]

....anyone surprised?

definitely not me.

[native pawn]

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/quake-info/9971391/mag3quake-Dec-15-2024-Syria-Tartus-Suriye-11806-km-Yaylada-Hatay.html

"The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) says Israeli fighter jets have “targeted the missile launchers in the 107th Barracks in Hama area and weapon depots in Tartous countryside” in southern Syria." https://www.syriahr.com/en/351573/ Al-Jazeera English reporting it as well.

There are reddit posts of a huge explosion, no idea if accurate, no sources were posted in the reddit post: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1hf46hb/massive_explosion_from_idf_strike_on_ammo_dump_in/

[torpid urchin]

Anything known on whether the Russian bases in Tartous were affected?

[teal whale]

There's been a claim popular among Israelis that 6 Druze villages in and around the region Israel invaded after Assad fell asked to be absorbed into Israel. The single solitary source for this I could find is a video from some kind of gathering which doesn't have a specific date attached to it in which a man argues before a group that they should pick whatever side best preserves the lives of the community, and says that he wants to join the occupied Golan region. But the response from the crowd is mixed at best: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raR1nK6acYo

But major Druze figures attacked the idea as a betrayal of Syria and there's little evidence of such a decision by any Druze community in Syria so far: https://www.independentarabia.com/node/613908/سياسة/متابعات/هل-تستخدم-إسرائيل-قضية-حماية-الدروز-لضمان-إقامة-منطقة-عازلة؟

[fading canopy]

Re: 12-15 reported weapons depot strike

Thermal anomalies detected by NASA FIRMS indicate possible military activity approximately 10.72 km from the Tartus Naval Base on December 15, 2024, coinciding with reported Israeli strikes on a weapons depot.

Two distinct thermal signatures were recorded at coordinates 34.9277, 35.98731 at 17:29 and 19:09 UTC.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@35.91,34.93,12.59z

A seismic event of magnitude 3.0 was subsequently detected at 21:48:57 UTC in the vicinity.
https://vxtwitter.com/rrichcord/status/1868448003474039159
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/quake-info/9971391/mag3quake-Dec-15-2024-Syria-Tartus-Suriye-11806-km-Yaylada-Hatay.html#google_vignette

Pre-incident satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 (08:30:31 UTC):.
https://sentinelshare.page.link/mPyH

Updated high-resolution imagery would be required to confirm structural damage at the reported location.

[valid crescent]

Wondering about this site since offensive started, esp. in light of my cmnt on Bsky on destroying "evidence" and Wim Zwinjenburg, on X: Stark reminder by chemical weapons expert on the wider public and environmental health risks of Israel bombing #Syria's suspected chemical weapons factories. These sites should be properly dismantled by specialists @formal roost15Dec https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1862939943032815841

Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) on X

According to Syrian opposition media Zaman al-Wasl, this area within the site (36.0337° 37.3496°) housed Unit 416 of Syria's chemical weapons program. As part of the Syrian chemical 'disarmament' agreement, one of the buildings was blown up under the supervision of OPCW

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 7:21 PM

“After decades of repression in one of the most oppressive police states in the world, Syrians are finally free to tell their stories, and Assad’s repeated use of chemical warfare against his own people can no longer be ignored, covered up or denied.”
From apple.news https://t.co/Ac6byWWuLE https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1862939926150394306

Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) on X

That is correct. Quick thread on what we know about the al-Safira facility.

Twitter · Nov 30, 2024, 7:21 PM

[teal whale]

https://x.com/clarissaward/status/1868785858863939982 😐

Clarissa Ward (@clarissaward) on X

We can confirm the real identity of the man from our story last Wednesday as Salama Mohammed Salama

https://t.co/wb77EEMbnT

Twitter · Dec 16, 2024, 10:30 PM

[sudden imp]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/heads-of-shin-bet-idf-intel-said-to-visit-jordan-to-discuss-effects-of-syria-upheaval/

[sudden imp]

Any one knows any further sources about this meeting?

[karmic thistle]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-fears-military-buildup-by-turkey-signals-preparations-for-incursion-into-syria-1c2e88e9
headline: U.S. Fears Military Buildup by Turkey Signals Preparations for Incursion Into Syria

[ornate ice]

https://observers.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241213-hts-syria-arbitrary-executions-minority-fear

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/tatarigami.bsky.social/post/3ldj7cg2ezc2j

Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social)

Frontelligence Insight, after obtaining information about an ongoing operation at the Tartus seaport, has independently verified through additional means that Russia appears to be preparing to evacuate a substantial number of vehicles and equipment

Bluesky · Dec 17, 2024, 3:54 PM

[idle sand]

Not sure where in syria, but according to the poster it hit a power line
https://x.com/3la2lden/status/1869050893368492418
https://fxtwitter.com/3la2lden/status/1869057517126594746

علاء الدين (@3la2lden) on X

Shit shit shit

Twitter · Dec 17, 2024, 4:03 PM

Pretty obviously a hellfire variant (given pictures 2-3) but curious if it's actually a R9X

[idle sand]

https://fxtwitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1869063620962959714

[gloomy badger]

49kg suggest its either a P/P+ or R, not R9X.

[idle sand]

I checked against this article, 49kg seems to match but it also matches other variants
https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/how-tos/2021/08/26/the-telltale-traces-of-the-us-militarys-new-bladed-missile-r9x/

[gloomy badger]

Yes, it seems to be correct w 49kg.

[idle sand]

would be easier if they found the pneumatic tank but seems like there isn't too much left of it

[gloomy badger]

If the first image is of the blades then it should be two missiles..

[idle sand]

Yeah it would be unlikely to have two missiles hit near an empty road

[gloomy badger]

I would guess that they have been moved and placed next to each other.

[analog rivet]

It's an R9X, weight and fragments match. Non R9X variants don't have the bladed fragments or anything close.

https://osmp.ngo/model/agm-114r9x-hellfire/

[idle sand]

Ah that's the kind of reference pictures I was looking for, sure seems like it

[fading canopy]

Russia's Syrian Bases Update
Satellite imagery from December 15th shows changes at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, with additional activity observed at Tartus Naval Base on December 17th. High-resolution imagery suggests preparations for potential evacuation at both facilities.

Crossposted to #maritime

https://vxbsky.app/profile/trbrtc.bsky.social/post/3ldjhhci3zs2m
https://vxbsky.app/profile/trbrtc.bsky.social/post/3ldjhhqxxrs2m
https://vxbsky.app/profile/trbrtc.bsky.social/post/3ldjhjcrkvk2m

[karmic slate]

https://fixupx.com/Archer83Able/status/1869119103061114986

[open zephyr]

https://www.newarab.com/analysis/how-israel-trying-weaken-post-assad-syria

[fervent talon]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/syria-mass-graves-assad-show-worst-abuses-nazis-rcna184644

[wild salmon]

Tatarigami's assessment on where Russian equipment from Hmeimim and Tartus is being moved to (most likely, but not confirmed, Libya): https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/syria-withdrawal-implications-for

[fading canopy]

Airbus satellite imagery from December 17th shows an area east of Tarsus, Syria, that was reportedly targeted by an Israeli strike two days earlier.
Additional details of the strike posted earlier in thread #1113364002756644874 message

https://vxbsky.app/profile/mtanderson.bsky.social/post/3ldr2su4dpk2j

[analog rivet]

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1870104642048217497?t=tZijysR8-2qINmXX-GJR6w&s=19

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) on X

Syrian media report that one person was wounded after IDF troops opened fire on demonstrators in southern Syria.

According to the Local Daraa 24 outlet, residents of towns in the Yarmouk River basin gathered near a former Syrian army post close to the village of Ma'ariya to

Twitter · Dec 20, 2024, 1:51 PM

[cold sapphire]

Isis didn't really 'control' any territory so they likely decided trying to map it was pointless/misleading. The whole desert area has some kind of ISIS presence but not control.

[azure hare]

I see, thank you for your answer.

[brazen venture]

Probably also worth thinking about how these sorts of maps are made. Typically there's a combination of geolocated footage, military reports, and other sources such as local news or informants about what villages have what kinds of militants in them. With an open desert like Eastern Syria, unless there are demarcated ceasefire lines or clear active lines of contact (which wasn't the case for most of the conflict), it's fairly arbitrary how far around known villages or outposts or bases you draw the lines. This isn't like Ukraine with a clear entrenched frontline.

[gloomy badger]

These maps are also important

[crystal mirage]

Deception and Betrayal: Inside the Final Days of the Assad Regime https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/21/world/middleeast/assad-regime-syria-final-days.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jU4.t_Nx.P9-kgaJSZfjP

Gift link

[teal whale]

https://x.com/SameralAtrush/status/1871103549880627332

Samer Al-Atrush (@SameralAtrush) on X

A truce between the Kurdish SDF and Turkey/Syrian militias is barely holding, as I saw on a visit to a forward Turkish-Syrian base on Friday, and the militiamen predict the war will come.

https://t.co/M2D3CylGYQ

Twitter · Dec 23, 2024, 8:00 AM

[teal whale]

I think this is the highest ranking regime official to try and switch sides after the fall? https://x.com/alrasd_sy/status/1871241830270157015

راصد السويداء (@alrasd_sy) on X

السفير السوري بشار الجعفري من موسكو: لم يكن هناك نظام بل كان هناك منظومة فساد مافيوية رهنت البلاد لخدمة مصالحها.

دعوت الجالية اليوم للاحتفال بالتغيير.

ما رأيك؟!

Twitter · Dec 23, 2024, 5:09 PM

[teal whale]

https://x.com/tamerqdh/status/1871871223660982472

Tamer | تامر (@tamerqdh) on X

يرفعون علم الثورة السورية ويتقدمون بأجسادهم نحو القوات الإسرائيلية المدججة بالسلاح، مطالبين برحيلها. فأطلق الجيش الإسرائيلي النار عليهم، ما أسفر عن إصابة سبعة منهم.

مظاهرة لأهالي بلدة السويسة في ريف القنيطرة السورية ضد الاحتلال الإسرائيلي .

هذا ما تحاول إسرائيل إخفاءه عن

Twitter · Dec 25, 2024, 10:50 AM

[teal whale]

Some images if anyone wants to find the incident on the map https://fxtwitter.com/aljarmaqnet/status/1871852654273732874

[jolly iris]

https://hevdesti.org/en/missing-justice-arbitrary-detention-and-enforced-disappearance-continue-in-sna-controlled-areas/

Missing Justice: Arbitrary Detention and Enforced Disappearance Continue in SNA-Controlled Areas
This report documents the ongoing and systematic violations, including arbitrary detention, enforced disappearance, and torture, committed by factions of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in Northern Syria. It also presents the profound impacts of these crimes on the victims, survivors, and their families under the absence of justice and accountability.

[faint verge]

Don’t know about this source but this seems like the most level-headed, not-obviously-disinfo-y account of this incident in Tartus. https://fixupx.com/CdricLabrousse/status/1872011764948492792

[teal whale]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/25/syrian-forces-suffer-14-fatalities-in-countryside-clashes

[wild salmon]

https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3leacxthy3c2y

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)

The first Russian An-124 flight from Khmeimim Air Base to Al Khadim Air Base in Libya has now landed.

This is the first concrete evidence of the Russian military moving heavy equipment to Libya from Syria and a clear sign that they are abandoning Syria for Libya.

Bluesky · Dec 26, 2024, 8:31 PM

[jolly iris]

https://t.me/MiddleEastEye_TG/11419

[wild salmon]

It's back https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3lecd2hness2e

Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social)

Looks like the Russian An-124 is making another trip from Khmeimim to Al Khadim.

The next satellite images of Al Khadim will be very interesting.

Bluesky · Dec 27, 2024, 3:38 PM

[golden plover]

https://kyivindependent.com/fall-of-assads-regime-disrupts-russian-recruitment-in-syria/

[lucid scaffold]

According to the organisation that has been monitoring the war in Syria for over a decade, al-Hassan was arrested alongside 20 others on Thursday after clashes erupted in the coastal province of Tartus between security officials and al-Assad loyalists who sought to protect the former justice.
https://www.euronews.com/2024/12/27/syria-arrests-top-official-who-sentenced-thousands-to-death-in-sednaya-report-claims

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ew5g3vzreo

Former Syrian prison official arrested in California, now charged with torture
Samir Ousman al-Sheikh, 72, who oversaw Syria's infamous Adra Prison from 2005 to 2008, was detained in July at on charges of immigration fraud, specifically that he denied on US visa and citizenship applications having ever persecuted anyone in Syria.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/13/former-syrian-official-arrested-in-california-who-oversaw-prison-charged-with-torture_6736017_4.html

Syria: The challenge of justice
The new Syrian authorities will be judged on their determination to respect fundamental rights and minorities, but also on their ability to ensure that justice is done for the mass crimes committed under the Assad regime.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/12/23/syria-the-challenge-of-justice_6736387_23.html

[lucid scaffold]

https://www.ecchr.eu/en/case/torture-under-the-assad-regime/
This site contains a wealth of information on the legal backdrop and proceedings in Germany related to a number of torture cases in Syria

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241227-butcher-of-hama-assad-s-uncle-rifaat-fled-to-dubai-say-lebanese-officials-syria

'Butcher of Hama': Assad's uncle Rifaat fled to Dubai, Lebanese officials say
Middle East

An uncle of the recently ousted Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has fled, via Lebanon, to the United Arab Emirates, according to Lebanese officials. Rifaat al-Assad, known as the “Butcher of Hama” for overseeing the violent suppression of a rebellion in the 1980s, has been accused of war crimes by Swiss prosecutors.

[teal whale]

There is now an HTS checkpoint at Hmeimeem which the fighter in the video claims is aimed at preventing any former regime officers from seeking to flee the country with Russia's aid.
https://fxtwitter.com/k7ybnd99/status/1872740703459303570

[potent vigil]

a vlogger made a video inside syrian prisons that shows some documents / registry up close. The letter seem to be about soldiers commiting suicide.
https://youtu.be/sE43Nb9z7xc?si=RI48n9POZyC5z-Ar&t=270

Filmed inside the Far' Falastine prison, also known as Palestinian Branch or Branch 235.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/33°29'29.4"N+36°19'08.4"E/@33.4911155,36.3188218,177m

[sudden imp]

https://x.com/aloddiros830/status/1872561966759432330?s=46

Aloddiros830 (@aloddiros830) on X

🇮🇱🇸🇾 ☢️ Radioactivity recorded in Cyprus and Turkey.

It is suspected that Israel used a tactical nuclear bomb on December 16, 2024, when it bombed the arsenal of Bashar al Assad in the Tartous Mountains, Syria.

Twitter · Dec 27, 2024, 8:35 AM

[potent vigil]

The charts linked do not indicate a nuclear strike at all this is fear mongering

From the community note of the source of those charts:

Similar radiation spikes are regularly observed at most monitoring stations in Europe, including a larger spike on Dec 3rd at this same station

remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Advanced.aspx

Additionally the increase depicted here is about 10 nSv/h, well within normal levels and about 1/10th the radiation of a banana
https://x.com/Ben68638515/status/1871046543958331531

Hans-Benjamin Braun (@Ben68638515) on X

Nuclear attack in Tartus (Syria):
Radioactive fingerprint of nuke (Tartus) measured in Cyprus within ~16 hours after the attack.
[Note that the dose rate peak cannot be ascribed to precipitation as higher precipitation occurred on Dec 5 with no discernible radiation increase]

Twitter · Dec 23, 2024, 4:13 AM

[gloomy badger]

I think that it's very obvious that this is a non-nuclear explosion.

[potent vigil]

yes, im just pointing at the source of this disinfo, this "hans benjamin braun" also claimed the ukrainian drone attack against Toropets ammunition stock was a nuclear explosion. zero credibility

[vital loom]

yes, his disinfo is known https://www.psiram.com/de/index.php/Hans-Benjamin_Braun

[potent vigil]

28 complaints of sexual harassement 💀

[hard glacier]

10 nSv/hr?

Excuse me a moment...

Loooooooooool

[potent vigil]

Translation of the letter:
Administrative order

Assembly of a committee in branch number 235 that consists of the following as members:

General brigadier Salah Ali (Supervisor of section eight)-director

General Dr Waseem Khalil Shalish (the security officer)-member

The first assistant Ahmed Alhendi (commander of the party department)-member

The committee’s goal:

To study the reports from the operations agency number 580/39839 dated 7/10/2023 (topic: stopping the occurrence of suicide between soldiers on different commands, and discussing the motives and taking appropriate measures to prevent this incidents)). And show the findings to the branch’s director with the appropriate suggestions.

Sent to:

The committee head and members

[ornate ice]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g29e1lejvo

[lone vine]

original interview https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/12/29/syria-s-new-elections-and-draft-constitution-al-sharaa-outlines-timeline

The Syrian leader, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, explained that holding legitimate elections is a task that could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population census.