I mean the global trade system is fundamentally very unfair, and western countries for a very long time have safeguarded their right to agricultural protectionism.
Like I agree that things should be different, but there's something really sour about putting down the Polish farmer of all people for wanting to uphold their rights according to the current international standard
#Political situation in Poland
brittle hamlet
Especially since, as Ive said the EU clearly made a calculated decision that included the aim of curbing inflation in western countries
lyric yew
I mean the global trade system is fundamentally very unfair, and western countri...
It's just so manipulative of Russia and in France and Canada a lot of bad faith actors simply were arrested
slate wagon
Thank you!
Interesting as this sounds, what does it have to do with the current political situation in Poland?
weary drift
Interesting as this sounds, what does it have to do with the current political s...
Background for patterns leading to unrest. Sorry, searched Poland and found this thread. There is a book-rec thread. I'll put it there.
civic wasp
I will publish a piece on this in hours, will link it here.
civic wasp
Ok here it is, with almost 50 source links. I tried to avoid untranslatable terms. But I couldn't help myself with one, so let me explain it. After the 2022 invasion it became popular in Poland to call pro-Russian politicians "onuce", which literally means "footwrap", as in, a piece of material, used instead of socks back in a day (in the West) and until early 2000s (in Russia). Because the term was quickly worn out (everybody calling everybody else that) we sometimes semi-jokingly use "sock-sceptics" instead. At some point I list the main aspects of the protest. Number 3, after PiS and Konfederacja are the sock-sceptics. I just point this out, in case it may be translated weirdly.
Enjoy.
Twitter/X:
https://twitter.com/PutinizmPolski/status/1759875734544244816
Twitter
civic wasp
EDIT: the source link numer 29 is wrong. The information on grain volume imported from Russia to Poland is fake. Sorry for my mistake.
I've deleted this on Facebook and added a note on Twitter.
civic wasp
Also:
In the red: "Our postulates:
- Cross back on its place
- Green Deal out
- Polexit now
- New elections
- New Constitution
shut ore
In the red: "Our postulates:
1. Cross back on its place
2. Green Deal out
3. Pol...
https://twitter.com/DrapiacaMetka/status/1759965737437843823?t=vvmx5bvGqHJs2bV6Nectjg&s=19
Perhaps a fake photo of the tractor but here you go, farmers are dis-uniting Poland.
Twitter
civic wasp
Was just going to post it. Here's the video of them not letting the ambulance go through. Explanation? "It was known which roads are closed".
https://twitter.com/mirkowy/status/1759928492970361135?t=b22HWTcogf8Oh0A9Xa44Ag&s=19
Twitter
This looks unbelievably dumb. Please tell me it's fake.
Wyborcza journalists claims he saw it:
Key fragment
final sierra
Poland train cars carrying grain sabotaged https://twitter.com/Ukrainian_Art_/status/1759898571602538888
Twitter
Hostages are being taken by the protesters. https://twitter.com/OlKubrakov/status/1759960846468293011
Twitter
shut ore
Poland is a mass of contradictions. The farmers were awsome about the Women's Rights protests. They drove in the tractors for the women!
I am lost for analysis here. Decoding Trolls has a piece about this. I think the point is, Russian disinformation is winning over the disgruntled Polish rural peoples.
https://twitter.com/DecodingTrolls/status/1731179297052717386?t=46IJ1r14-hX2YauQkqAFjQ&s=19
Twitter
civic wasp
The banner we were speaking of was taken down by the police, the prosecutor's office is launching an investigation, MoIA says.
brittle hamlet
Regarding negotiations on grain quotas, the Polish minister of agriculture stated (last thursday) that he hoped the issue would be resolved "by the end of march"
https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/minister-rolnictwa-negocjujemy-dwustronne-porozumienie-polska-ukraina-nowe-informacje
brittle hamlet
I suppose everything is going to be delayed until just before elections
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi and his Polish counterpart, Czeslaw Siekierski, met Wednesday in an attempt to find an agreement, but made little progress. The government in Kyiv is now planning an additional route via the Danube River to redirect its shipments of grain to protect a key source of revenue for the country at war with Russia.
“The talks are tough and we’re not making any rapid headway,” Polish Deputy Agriculture Minister Michal Kolodziejczak told Polsat News. “The voice of the European Commission and its president will be very important here
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a meeting with his ministers on Wednesday, where the border blockade was the main topic and steps will follow “very soon,” Zelenskiy said on Telegram. He stressed that the liberalization of trade between Ukraine and EU should continue, and thanked the European Commission for its “clear position” on the matter.
brittle hamlet
https://vxtwitter.com/golub/status/1760266735448449377
??
shut ore
https://vxtwitter.com/golub/status/1760266735448449377
That is the problem. Farmers decide what technologies will be used for food security (chemical and machine) and which crops will be invested in and developed for the future. Negotiating with them as business owners means investment in their development, and constant payment for labour.
When people entre this arena just to push the agenda towards Russia, you know that there are serious issues to resolve.
Very distracting, off topic, and wasteful for a business to be interrupted by Russian nationalists.
Russian talking points sabotage the efforts to develope security and progress for Poland's farmers.
brittle hamlet
I thought Swing Set was implying that the minister of economic development and technology was the latter person.
That person actually turns out to be someone who appears on konfederacja lists as a candidate in elections, who has appropriated the blockade for something other than its intended purpose.
civic wasp
https://vxtwitter.com/golub/status/1760266735448449377
Panasiuk is a well know agent of influence. Not only does he stream Russian MoD propaganda, but he also actively fights for "peace"
One of the movements which is organizing the protests says they're ready to fight the police. They're also calling all farmers to get to the border.
https://twitter.com/oszukana_wies/status/1760667807220744474?t=YQPjvQBEB43bx03YQn47lw&s=19
Twitter
civic wasp
And here, a fact checking website demagog.org published the most influential antiukrainian X accounts in 2023. Silver medal goes to Grzegorz Braun. One of Konfederacja leaders.
civic wasp
Some 4 hours ago "unknown suspects" opened 3 wagons of grain from Ukraine. The thing is, the train was waiting for the customs so, I presume, was in a no-go-zone.
shut ore
At this point it is impossible now to know if it was a Polish actor, or Russian actor. Investigating is going to be interesting.
If you haven't read it though, this article about an information interference business that works for Russia (among other terrorists) is very insightful.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2022-11-16/ty-article-static-ext/the-israelis-destabilizing-democracy-and-disrupting-elections-worldwide/00000186-461e-d80f-abff-6e9e08b10000
civic wasp
Meanwhile, a quick update.
- Tusk declared that border crossings with Ukraine will be listed as "critical strategic infrastructure".
- Protesters claim that they are ready to fight the police.
- Rafał Mekler, one of their leaders, says they will block the border with Lithuania for a week, starting today. Supposedly because the grain from Ukraine was transitted to Lithuania and then back to Poland as EU's.
- Some troll account spreads bs that Mekler is buying grain from occupied territories of Ukraine, transporting it to Kazakhstan and then to Poland which Mekler swiftly proves to be dumb and economically senseless which in turn gives him some immunity to all Russian affiliations
- The gov had a talk with the protesters but those from the border said that they were not present so will not accept any deals made there
- Even though the whole Polish agriculture is just 2,2% of our GDP and the current import volume of grain from Ukraine is really small, compared to the domestic production, the atmosphere is, well, rebelious.
Here's the data on import:
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/resort-pokazal-dane-oto-ile-zywnosci-z-ukrainy-zaimportowano-do-polski-6997375509584640a.html
And some deeper insight with charts. Tl;dr: it was bad at the end of 2022. Now its basically the same as prior to the invasion, meaning that it is a small fraction of our domestic production.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/jak-to-jest-z-tym-ukrainskim-zbozem-wyjasniamy/kkskp5r
brittle hamlet
In Warsaw today, Von der Leyen also referred to recent farmer protests, saying that the first payment will include €1.4 billion available immediately for Polish farmers “to help them improve and modernise and reach new markets”
I dont understand the EU here, by leaving the issue countries will arrive at bilateral agreements with Ukraine instead, undermining the EUs trade competencies
final sierra
I dont understand the EU here, by leaving the issue countries will arrive at bil...
The calculus could be: EUcom suspended rules for Ukrainians, angering "farmers." Since EUcom doesnt want to go back to restricting Ukraine, the only other lever is a carrot for the farmers.
shut ore
I happen to be observing Rolnki news but I hesitate to compile a list of the Useful Rolnik Idiot accounts. Here is some of the sideways messaging that influences their overall extreme cynicism.
They are half right and all wrong. Like so much disinfo. A little bit of fact, and a lot of manipulation of them.
Does anyone have appetite to form a subgroup and actually approach this with the intention of speaking with the chłopy?
brittle hamlet
The calculus could be: EUcom suspended rules for Ukrainians, angering "farmers."...
I agree that the carrot, especially now that Poland is I guess flush with unlocked funds, might be the EU's expectation of a solution. Certainly, since between the Polish gov/farmers and EU+Ukraine, nobody within any of those groups wants to back down.
Of all the Polish government has the least ability to do so since it would endanger its coalition, the others could probably take a hit. But philosophizing aside, perhaps enough farmers might take the money and go home.
Still, the issue now is the same as it was before - the farmers want the rescinding of the green deal and of the temporary measures. They arent strictly reacting to market pressures - theyre thinking of the long term. Thats why I think a carrot approach might not work, they want a policy solution.
And of course the backdrop to all this is the expectation of Ukraine's eventual EU membership where similiar issues are probably going to emerge.
final sierra
I agree that the carrot, especially now that Poland is I guess flush with unlock...
I'm not Polish nor have I ever been. It's reminiscent of the Giles Jaunes to me. Is there a form of liberal media which can educate the public as to what's really going on, and why otherwise well-meaning people might get caught up in this campaign?
I saw the tractor hanging a protest sign saying "Arbeit Mach Frei." I wonder if some farmers asked themselves, "Are we the baddies?"
brittle hamlet
I honestly dont know what youre talking about right now.
Yes, its a rather common phrase Polish people (their country being the place where death camps were situated) use in a sardonic manner
If you want to talk more about how broadly speaking poorer to lower middle class people tend towards populist anti-globalists political views, including therefore conspiracies and pro-Russia/anti-systemic beliefs, Id be happy to discuss that elsewhere.
final sierra
If you want to talk more about how broadly speaking poorer to lower middle class...
I was just asking if there was any news outlet trying to explain to the public what's really going on... like a liberal editorial newspaper or television program
civic wasp
Here's my first text ever to be published on Oko.press. it's was made on Thursday so some things did escalate since then, but I tried to paint the whole picture
Meanwhile, there is an information about whole train with grain spilled out in town of Kotomierz in western Poland. For now, nobody knows whether it is Ukrainian grain. One of the protesters leaders, below, says that it is due to malfunction of the opening mechanism. Of course 100% of comments are very happy about this. It's also already shared by MIR tv (you'll find more about it in my text above)
https://twitter.com/HubertOjdana/status/1761696008264884556?t=XT7MK3Xl-jJyXQevJxujtw&s=19
Twitter
hexed ember
Meanwhile, there is an information about whole train with grain spilled out in t...
wow, thats a stupid thing to blame "failure of opening mechanism" the opening mechanism is manual, sure a single door might fail, but all of them failing so its open wouldent happen
also if that was what had happened this part would be bent:
if you find a better image this lable could have orginator and destinatior stations (or atleast info that allow for tracking)
might also be in this folder
civic wasp
Ok I see. So this would align with my intuition that somebody just spilled this and Ojdsna and MIR tv are disinforming the public
hexed ember
their might exist a mechanism to automatically upen the doors at the unloading station
but itwouldent be something thats part of the train or that could be trigered without driving past the mechanism
most likely some hooligan went along the train and manually opened each door
civic wasp
Police is investigating
https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-02-25/kolejny-incydent-z-zywnoscia-w-wagonach-nieznani-sprawcy-wysypali-kukurydze/
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their might exist a mechanism to automatically upen the doors at the unloading s...
That 'hooligan' must have been either really lucky or had practical knowledge of a) how to operate a whole train quickly and b) locating a spot where a train full of Ukrainian grain would not only be located but also stopped and under no kind of supervision or surveillance.
So was this a train operator, an angry farmer, a hooligan with OSINT skills? I don't know. Releasing a few kilos of symbolic grain on a train stopped on the border by protestors is one thing, but this? Yeah, maybe they got lucky.
brittle hamlet
Although I dont doubt that it was a Polish insider from the industry and Ukrainian grain, neither of these things are actually confirmed as of now
round arrow
idk about not actually confirmed Ukrainian grain... I mean sure, Oleksandr Kubrakov might have his trains mixed up, but I'd put that in the 'very unlikely' category according to ICD-203
civic wasp
Meanwhile, Rafał Mekler, one of the faces of these protests (of course he's a Konfie) shares a 1944 quote by Shukhevych on exterminating Poles which has literally nothing to do with grain prices but everything to do with destroying Polish-Ukrainian relations
round arrow
but let's look at it from another perspective: how likely would Ukrainian grain be at the station where the incident took place? Essentially, let's analyze the possibility that the grain was really Ukrainian grain and that it was destined to pass through Poland for the port of Gdansk and then to other countries.
It's almost certain that any grain traveling from Ukraine to Europe would use the TEN-T network infrastructure, since it's the railway network designed for international interoperability. Is Kotomierz located on the TEN-T infrastructure? Let's see...
yes.
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There are only two possible (if you count the unlikely-to-be-used "extended network") border crossings between Poland and Ukraine. Dorohusk in the North and Medyka in the South. Both are part of the North Sea-Baltic Corridor of the TEN-T network. Let's assume that the train came through the southern bordercrossing (it's the TEN-T line not under construction, it's far away from Russian-allied Belarus and it's generally closer to the ports in the black sea to which the Ukrainian grain export infrastructure was used to). In other words, it's almost certain Ukrainian grain trains come through Medyka when they enter Poland. If you want to use the TEN-T infrastructure to get Ukrainian grain from Medykz to Gdansk, will the train pass through Kotomierz? Almost certainly.
brittle hamlet
Thank you for sharing that.
I believe the police did take samples to determine the grains origins (is there not a simpler way?), perhaps the results will be shared to further confirm this
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round arrow
Thank you for sharing that.
I believe the police did take samples to determine t...
Gladly! I learn something new every day. Today I learned that this was the first and last time I used Microsoft Paint 3D to annotate a screenshot. I mean how can you go into 2024, take PAINT and make it worse, seriously. I have Creative Suite, I wanted to save some time and I am baffled by how long it took to put two words and two lines on the map in the right places.
Anyways, on the map you can clearly see that the city is on the direct route between the two cities. Interestingly, Kotomierz is an otherwise tiny train station (with no suitable infrastructure to connect TEN-T compatible rails with road-based transport) but with a set of extra tracks. Usually, these are used to let trains pass if the tracks are otherwise used.
The little dot you see on the map above right under my little marking I made in Paint 3D that said Kotomierz you see a red circle. This is the terminal of Bydgoszcz, which is a core terminal of the TEN-T network. So, I don't know how busy the railway is in that area, but the TEN-T core network is already at capacity an the EU heavily pumps money into it to get it straightened out by 2040. Looking at the importance of Gdansk as a port of Eastern Europe and Poland in particular, and at how sparse the rail network is in Poland - I would say it's highly likely that you need to have reliable information if you want to sabotage a train, simply because it's somewhat of a busy route.
Sure, it's let's say equal chances that just some angry polish person with knowledge on how to open several train carts in a short amount of time came by. There is also the possibility that the train stood there overnight. The only report about timing we have is that police received a call at 0930.
Another thing: ECCO rail is an Austrian logistics company. It's highly unlikely to obvious to a random passerby that this train came from Ukraine. But why use Austrian train carts? Two possibilities: a) EU-money hired ECCO to transport grain from Ukraine to Gdansk and b) the grain is actually from Austria. It would have taken the same route.
Whereever a TEN-T based train would start in Austria, there's no real alternative to the route through Kotomierz. This could of course also be explained, that this is very convenient because something something logistics, taking the same way back, being on the usual routes something like that.
Oh how I love trainspotting. The movie and the hobby. https://api.flickr.com/photos/196448905@N06/53231118784/in/photostream/
noteworthy is that this train is on another route, possibly taking the northern border crossing, which would be less likely to go through Kotomierz. But we have at least one sighting of a Ukrainian grain transport through Poland that is executed by the same rail logistics company as our vandalized mystery cart.
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OK before I go to bed finally and enjoy my 5 hours of sleep: https://portalpasazera.pl/MapaOL Live map of polish trains on map? Can someone polish look at this please and describe what's possible here? It doesn't load on my end...
OK nevermind I think this is only passenger trains
flint breach
Meanwhile, Rafał Mekler, one of the faces of these protests (of course he's a Ko...
how is all this playing among the folks that voted in the current coalition that unseated PiS?
hexed ember
That 'hooligan' must have been either really lucky or had practical knowledge of...
They use the same opening mechanism as any fright container in the world,
You pull the lever up then towards you.
The rest will solve itself due to the amount of pressure against the inside of the door.
It would take marginally more time to open all the doors that it would take to just walk the length of the train.
The danger is that because of the significant pressure from the grain the doors might well hit whoever opened it so it would not surprise me terribly if they find a body under one of those piles of grain
shut ore
Here's my first text ever to be published on Oko.press. it's was made on Thursda...
Excellent article! Il Also "koniec gościny niewdzięczne sk...ny" just 1 swear word. They're not that angry then.
civic wasp
how is all this playing among the folks that voted in the current coalition that...
Sadly, I sense a growing conviction that all farmers are prorussian provocators. So paradoxally, even if the public does acknowledge that there are some proRussian actors using these protests to spread their disinfo, it may end up pretty well for Kremlin, since a new division will be formed: a "western" folks in the cities versus the "russian" farmers.
civic wasp
OK before I go to bed finally and enjoy my 5 hours of sleep: https://portalpasaz...
Thank you for this deepened investigation. So looks like it mustve been a sabotage
And yes, this map is passenger only
flint breach
Sadly, I sense a growing conviction that all farmers are prorussian provocators....
I see. Do you have a sense of how the country leans, overall? How big of a story is this, nationally?
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Sadly, I sense a growing conviction that all farmers are prorussian provocators....
Hmmm no, that's not what I wanted to convey! Absolutely not. But there is an interesting line of research about emergent behavior that relates to swarm intelligence in humans. I was myself part of behavioural experiments that involved between 100 and 350 people at once. Imagine a huge hangar, about the size of a soccer field. Across the field were a couple of signs, like A, B, C, etc... Everybody got a little note in the beginning that set the 'rules' for that individual. Almost everybody got the same rule: always keep moving, always stay about an arms length away from the next person. Just a couple of people got an additional rule, for example: food is at B, try to keep close to B. The experimental manipulation was how many people got the information about food. What emerged was always similar: you get a crowd that moved reminiscent of a school of fish. What was extremely surprising was how few people you needed to move the whole swarm. I don't remember exactly what it was but if I remember correctly, 5 was not enough, 10 worked, and as soon as you hit 20 the swarm (of 350!!) would reliably keep "swimming" around the "food". Even to me, at the time an undergraduate psychology student with social psychology curriculum done, it was completely surprising that a difference of 5(!!!) people exhibiting slight variations in behavior to move the whole swarm.
What I'm saying is, you need much less influence than you think to move a lot of people. And we're talking about the subtle influence here. What I'm saying is NOT that the majority of farmers (whether German, Canadian, French, or Polish) are Russian agents, no!! But they do show, as all humans do, emergent behavior that can be calculated and manipulated with much less and much more subtle cues than we think. And I think the Russians have understood that, they have for decades, the West has not.
And the target groups are so easily predictable: think about the fish - fish are motivated by food. In humans - just pick whatever controversial subject motivates them to move. Pick any group. Strategically place information, and a lot of it. Use deceptive imagery and disinformation, and you WILL move crowds. It's very simple and we underestimate the effectiveness of that strategy.
The question is, for me at least, not necessarily whether disinformation happens - we know it does. But right now I'm more interested in putting actual numbers to it: how large were disinformation efforts? (In accounts, hours, posts, money equivalents of that, pick your metric) How big were the crowds that showed up? How problematic did people actually perceive the situation? I make any bet that if you get somewhat reliable data on these measures, and put them into a structural equation model, you can show a moderating effect of money spent on disinformation on the relationship between actual dissatisfaction and people on the street. (moderation analysis, structural equation modeling, just standard statistical tools in social psychology)
Of course, this is a PhD thesis in and of itself. Let me know if you know of an open postdoc position or grants to apply for 
brittle hamlet
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/26/7443818/
More details, mainly that the customs cables were cut. They state it was Ukrainian grain so that probably wasnt in doubt in the first place
civic wasp
What I'm saying is, you need much less influence than you think to move a lot of...
a) interesting study,
b) I get what you say. I'm just saying, that there is a growing feeling among Poles (at least in my infobubble) that ALL farmers are provocators. I do acknowledge that you don't need much to move a lot of people.
robust remnant
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/26/7443818/
More details, mainly that...
Yesterday's TVN news mentioned these wagons were only transiting through Poland. Not like knowing so would make any difference to those who made this mess.
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a) interesting study,
b) I get what you say. I'm just saying, that there is a g...
Oh, OK I got you. Sorry that was a misunderstanding, I'm not polish, we have similar protests in my country, which is why this topic is of interest to me
civic wasp
Oh, OK I got you. Sorry that was a misunderstanding, I'm not polish, we have sim...
I DM'ed you on this study though
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right on!
civic wasp
Meanwhile.
The farmers' protest hit Warsaw today. Among many other, a collegue of mine, stood among them with a banner saying "Look out farmer, there's a Rusky in your hen house" (it rhymes in Polish). Apparently that was too much for the protesters as they forced them to roll the banner and then just took it from them. At the same time, one of the most hardcore proRussian politicians (level where he travels with the Russian ambassador to commemorate the Red Army) was standing there with a sign saying "Ukropolin Stop". Polin is an old Jewish name for Poland. Ukropolin refers to the multilayer theory that there is no war and the whole thing is an evil plot where SOMEONE puts millions of Ukrainians in Poland so that millions of Jews would move to Ukraine in their place. I don't have to mention that this narrative is super popular among the prorussians, do I?
note: I noticed that this post translates to "we were close to being murdered". This is an automated translation error. He writes that "we were close to be beaten up".
civic wasp
And suddenly: Konfederacja
https://twitter.com/Wlodek_Skalik/status/1762465290703540286
Twitter
civic wasp
To sum it up.
During Tueseday's protest in Warsaw, there were:
- Konfies with large POLEXIT banner
- prorussian activists from Myśl Polska (core proRus, they even visit soviet graves with the ambassador) with "Ukropolin Stop" banner
- "no more hospitality ungrateful bastards" banner, but that was quickly taken down
- "EU usurers hands off Ukraine" (I understand it mean Jews probably) - held by unknown people
Good news though: the organizers didn't allow Wojciech Olszański on stage. Search earlier in this thread to see who he is. Tl;dr: openly pro-Russian fascist. He got mad as he always does.
brittle hamlet
Tusk also referred to the possibility of closing the border with Ukraine to all trade, an idea he raised yesterday. “This is not a dream scenario”, and would “have mutual consequences”, but “we must keep this possibility in mind if our demands do not resonate in Brussels and on the Ukrainian side”, he warned.
If implemented, this solution would concern only the movement of goods, not humanitarian and military transport, added Tusk.
brittle hamlet
somber basin
civic wasp
Yep, Tusk mentioned sth about embargo on Russian food products
civic wasp
Gazeta Wyborcza claims that the prosecutors office bought Hermes spyware in 2021. It sounds scary. However, there is an IT security expert Adam Haertle who debunks it quickly. I recommend reading this before launching a panic attack:
https://zaufanatrzeciastrona.pl/post/bzdury-wyborczej-czyli-dlaczego-hermes-nie-jest-bardziej-zaawansowanym-pegasusem/
I really wish that Wyborcza will one day call mr Haertle before publishing something like this
civic wasp
Meanwhile, Tusk is in Vilnius and calls for EU sanctions of Russian and Belarussian food products
https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Premier-Tusk-chce-unijnych-sankcji-na-rosyjskie-i-bialoruskie-produkty-rolne-8705007.html
brittle hamlet
https://moto.rp.pl/tu-i-teraz/art39947921-rolnicy-wracaja-na-przejscie-graniczne-na-autostradzie-a2-w-swiecku-totalna-blokada
Apparently parts of the blockade were lifted by farmers a week after they started (rather than the stated March 20th). They now plan a return "permanently"
Which is on the German border
civic wasp
They moved to protest in Warsaw today. There were some minor riots.
civic wasp
I covered this briefly here
https://twitter.com/PutinizmPolski/status/1765462182483910936?t=fXzYh78TXHbAnAIGZLrSHA&s=19
Twitter
brittle hamlet
European Union lawmakers approved on Thursday granting Ukrainian food producers tariff-free access to EU markets for another year, rejecting amendments that could have increased restrictions.
Final say I believe now goes to the council
Ill admit I didnt realize the Jan declaration on suspending tariffs was still working its way through the EU and was just a proposal
brittle hamlet
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/kyiv-proposes-temporary-trade-restrictions-with-eu-in-exchange-for-russian-grain-import-ban/
Not new, Ukraine did propose something along those lines a couple of weeks ago as well.
Interestingly:
Still, the Financial Times pointed out that an EU-wide ban on Russian grain imports may be difficult to achieve, with several member states fearing that such a move would destabilise global markets and aggravate economic and social crises in developing countries.
final sierra
that is ironic, considering that Poland and Ukraine are destabilized by Russian grain
civic wasp
Rzeczpospolita, a conservative but mainstream paper, claims that the Pegasus couldn't change anything on the infected phones. This is suspicious at best.
lyric yew
Rzeczpospolita, a conservative but mainstream paper, claims that the Pegasus cou...
Doubt it but even if so it's still highly problematic from a civil liberties POV
final sierra
Doubt it but even if so it's still highly problematic from a civil liberties POV
Absolute read access without write access doesn't exist except in MOD tables. There's a process running on a userhost doing it, and they're not deprecated.
final sierra
One temporary crossing opened today:
"They [Polish farmers] ceased their actions near the Krakivets checkpoint on the night of 8-9 March. It's temporary, as they indicated that they will resume their activities around 13 March," said Demchenko. The official added that five checkpoints remain blocked. About 1,700 lorries are still queuing.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/polish-farmers-temporarily-ease-border-092623634.html
civic wasp
Wow, just wow.
It turns out that we had a proRussian activist in the very middle of our elites.
Two years ago Newsweek found out that a private university named Collegium Humanum is basically selling MBA diplomas to pretty much anybody. Quickly it turned out that dozens of these were bought by PiS apparatchiks working at top places in state corporations.
Couple of weeks ago, with the new government already, the services finally entered the CH and arrested 7 people. Investigation is ongoing.
Now Anna Mierzyńska from OKO.press finds out that the head of CH is actually deep into the proRussian millieu of the old Polish-Soviet Friendship Association. And that once the CH was established in 2018, it was cooperating with universities in Russia and Belarus.
civic wasp
We've got a new far right party in Poland.
https://twitter.com/RBakiewicz/status/1767882034679091277?t=YH56_UWQwCiRB0XojWnm9Q&s=19
Twitter
robust remnant
Actually, this may not be bad. If this crap gets any voting support, likely at cost of other far right parties, weakening them. I at least hope it will be the case, if it gets enough support to even qualify that is.
brittle hamlet
Yeah probably nothing to worry about, although there might be a conversation to be had about whether the Polish far right are being empowered by events. Russian influence in Poland of course has very deep and widespread roots
Pretty funny how barely one day after Duda and Tusk make a big show of unity theyve like exploded on politicking. Duda hadnt even left the US yet haha
brittle hamlet
Twitter
civic wasp
Today we saw another organized farmers' protest, which took place in some 400 places. Farmers (meaning: those who may be referred to as "leaders", since the whole thing is highly decentralized) continue to demand all Green Deal to be lifted. Among them, politicians of Konfederacja demand polexit.
Somebody dropped manure at a gate of a house, belonging to parents of the current Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia, who truly had little to do with agriculture whatsoever.
There were some minor Kremlin-like provocations, but not comparable to what we've seen on the last few weeks.
olive sigil
Hey guys, thoughts on TVP info being shutdown randomly post election. I recall trying to watch it and it being taken down and it's office being raided. To me, this dosent sound like freedom of speech if they are forced to shutdown opposition media.
hexed ember
Hey guys, thoughts on TVP info being shutdown randomly post election. I recall ...
wasent that the old public broadcast that got compleatly taken over by the facists so to establish a none politically aligned public broadcast it had to be shut down?
olive sigil
It's a state ran news source, they were more lenient towards PIS, however, they had discussions on Sundays with all members of the polish political groups.
hexed ember
more leniant seem to be a bit of a misdunimor
from the outside it basically looked like a berlusconi situation
not really that odd that a public broudcast would lose their mandate from that
olive sigil
Was it the right thing to do to take over TVP info? Im trying to gather an opinion on it, however I'm not quite sure
slate wagon
You can scroll back in this thread and read more about it from the time it happened.
civic wasp
Was it the right thing to do to take over TVP info? Im trying to gather an opini...
Plus I can assure you that the current TVP Info is way better than the old one. I covered this, with sources, here:
https://twitter.com/PutinizmPolski/status/1740665497236959457?t=XKLyqYf8ZEXxxGNYdHEFng&s=19
That reminds me of a certain user named Flash_Vikop who archived some 300gb of screenshots of PiS TVP News since 2017. Hr is willing to help with research
Twitter
robust remnant
As a person who watched TVP pre-PiS and couldn't bear PiS version due to all the disinfo, hate and plummeting of quality, I can assure you with shutting this crap nothing of value was lost.
olive sigil
Thank you guys!
robust remnant
Btw I'd recommend checking what @civic wasp provided, but then it may be worth it only if you really wanted to know more, like for research or having very solid opinion on it.
civic wasp
Meanwhile, Klementyna Suchanow has published a piece on Agenda Europe. An international group of investigative journalists were reading internal emails of Agenda Europe for months.
We have proof that Ordo Iuris and others were working hand to hand with Russians from the very beginning.
civic wasp
And in English
https://x.com/KSuchanow/status/1771186406502596769?s=20
Twitter
civic wasp
Breaking: prosecutors have entered houses of at least 4 members of ZIobro's Sovereign Poland party: Ziobro, Woś, Romanowski and Matecki. It's related to the fact tha they defrauded hundreds of million from the MoJ Justice Fund. To be continued.
civic wasp
Ok so basically 25 locations have been searched by prosecutors, Police and Internal Security Agency (ABW), including apartments of 4 Sovereign Poland politicians.
(SP was in a coalition with PiS for the last 8 years, it's leader Zbigniew Ziobro was the MoJ and is in top 3 most responsible for the authoritarian turn AND conflict with the EU)
SP was in charge of the Justice Fund. In theory it was meant to help crime victims (rehabilitation programmes, prevention, psychological help etc) but during PiS-SP rule it quickly turned out that hundreds.of millions are being spent on things that have little to do with crime whatsoever. Just one catholic foundation received about 100 million zlotys (some 25 m euro) for a media center which is almost done basically in my neighbourhood (the priest-exorcist who runs it has been detained today). This was established first by the media, and later by the Supreme Audit Office. Basically Ziobro was giving this money away for his friends and for campaign purposes.
That's why this is far from surprise that the state is now searching the SP apartments too.
Non paywalled info for example here:
Here more on the aforementioned exorcist
https://tvn24.pl/polska/fundacja-profeto-niemal-100-milionow-dotacji-z-funduszu-sprawiedliwosci-czym-jest-st7838925
And here about the Supreme Audit Office (NIK) Control of the Justice Fund in 2021
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art18969831-raport-nik-o-funduszu-sprawiedliwosci-280-mln-zl-wydane-niecelowo
civic wasp
Wow.
Military Counterintelligence Service (SKW) has launched an investigation on General Jarosław Gromadziński, head of the EuroCorp. SKW say they have received "new information" and are likely to pull back general's security pass. He has been fired effective immediately.
This is the first time, I think, something like this happens.
civic wasp
In case anybody's wondering: I'll let you know about the result of the local election that were held on Sunday, once the final and official results are published. In some regions the race is even, so I don't want to have to correct myself.
Long story short: no big surprises, some minor local ones though. PiS traditionally wina in E and SE Poland and looses in all major cities. More details soon.
Okay, one funny detail. PiS was so sure they'll loose Warsaw, they didn't even bother putting any serious candidate. Instead, they promoted a certain Tobiasz Bocheński (picture below), who is not only completely unknown to anybody, but also a resident of Łódź, another city.
To nobody's surprise, Bocheński got a really bad result of 23% and was completely destroyed by the reelected Rafał Trzaskowski who got 57%.
Memes were made and I'm happy to announce that the one below is picturing Bocheński after the election and it's accurate.
civic wasp
The final results are in.
PiS 34,3%
KO 30,6%
Third Way 14,3%
KomfedeRussia 7,2%
New Left 6,3%
nonPartisans 3,0%
Other committees 4,5%
civic wasp
Today is the 14th anniversary of the Smoleńsk plane crash, in which 96 people have died, including the Polish President Lech Kaczyński.
Even though it was proven that this was a catastrophe, no proof of assassination was produced and PiS has lost their government... Their TV Republika (co-owned by PiS) continues to propagate a mix of conspiracy theories about Lech Kaczyński getting killed by Putin-Tusk malicious plot.
A lot of "documentaries" will be aired tonight
brittle hamlet
If the joint 2011 investigation was truly tainted, and a new investigation was required, Macierewicz turned the topic into an absolute farce.
civic wasp
Military Prosecutor's office launched its own investigation in 2016 or 17. No assassination proven yet. PiS had full control over the prosecutor's office, services, even a lot of courts. Macierewicz had his own parliamentary subcommittee.
They proved nothing. Nor had they debunked any results delivered by the 2011 commission.
civic wasp
▶️ Meanwhile, clean up in the cultural sector continues. Jan Żaryn, one of the top PiS intelectuals who is rewriting history for some 30 years now, has lost his position as the head of the Institute of National Thought. The Institute was pouring tens of millions to the far right, including openly fascist or prorussian entities. Most of these funds were defrauded. The investigation by the Supreme Chamber of Control is ongoing.
PiS just lost one of its main strongholds of their cultural war. The Institute will now deal with political thought as a whole plus the process of political radicalization.
This feels good.
civic wasp
Some farmer spilled liquid manure in front of the PM office. He has been detained by the State Security Service.
https://twitter.com/Bart_Wielinski/status/1779144035896082607?t=zml_QwqVUfzK3hzBoGfODA&s=19
Twitter
Here's a video from the man himself
https://www.instagram.com/stories/michalmarszal/3345355967853336105?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igsh=ZDdzeGp3MWRzZTF4
slate wagon
I wonder if you've seen this: "The Kyiv Independent’s Director of KI Insights, Jakub Parusinski, sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski to discuss the relations between Ukraine and Poland, including the highly controversial border blockade by Polish farmers, aid to Ukraine and whether Poland is ready for a potential armed conflict with Russia."
https://youtu.be/GbbPErwLKfQ?si=u04laKMvxFPLFwvg
civic wasp
I haven't
But will
Thanks
civic wasp
Here's a video from the man himself
https://www.instagram.com/stories/michalmars...
Ok, this was streamed lice by MIR.tv, an antisystem FB medium, which is trying to spread Russian disinfo among the protesting farmers. I will investigate this further.
civic wasp
Important update: the yestarday's spill in front of the PM Office in Warsaw was coordinated by a certain Mirosław Rostankowski - basically a proRussian fascist, who regularly travels to Belarus and has contacts with Lukashenka's regime.
No surprise.
civic wasp
Police's Chief said that the Police was using Pegasus spyware, thanks to their deal with the Central Anticorrupton Bureau (CBA)
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/policja-korzystala-z-pegasusa-komendant-glowny-ujawnia-szczegoly/h0nsc5k,79cfc278
civic wasp
Pegasus update from Poland.
Polish Attorney General Adam Bodnar has just confirmed that as many as 578 people have been invigilated with NSO's Pegasus spyware between 2017 and 2022. This is about 10 times more than anyone expected and over 5 times more than the number that was rumouring around in January.
So far no names were given, due to security reasons, that is, some of the victims might've actually been foreign agents or criminals. But my guess is that we will learn about whole lot of journalists, activists, politicans etc. soon.
Numbers
2017 - 6 people
2018 - 100
2019 (parliamentary election) - 140
2020 (presidential election) - 161
2021 (Pegasus scandal blows up in November)- 162
2022 - 9
Source:
https://tvn24.pl/polska/pegasus-prokurator-generalny-578-osob-bylo-objetych-kontrola-st7872137
civic wasp
Final results of the second round of local elections in Poland.
No surprises. PiS didn't win any major city. The local parliaments (Sejmiki) are divided pretty much as they always are (central and Eastern Poland goes to PiS, the rest to democrats). The only surprise is a candidate from Konfederacja, a certain Patryk Marjan who became a major of Bełchatów, city of 56 thousand citizens. As far as I see, this is the biggest city where the right has won.
https://tvn24.pl/lodz/wybory-samorzadowe-belchatow-2024-patryk-marjan-z-nalezacej-do-konfederacji-nowej-nadziei-wygrywa-st7880942
civic wasp
MoFA Radosław Sikorski gave an expose today. He said that Poland will once again build Europe rather than fight it. And that Putin's greatest weapon is our lack of determination. And that Ukrainian victory is our raison d'État.
Damn I forgot what it's like to listen to your country's diplomacy and not be ashamed.
civic wasp
Wow, this is big.
Tomasz Szmydt, a judge associated closely with former MoJ Zbigniew Ziobro (PiS lesser coalition party Sovereign Poland) has just appeared on a press conference in Minsk, asking for political asylum. He said:
"Why did I come here? Considering the situation in my country - it is a protest against the Polish policy towards Belarus and Russia"
"Yes, I'm asking for a status of political asylum" (he actually used the word "refugee")
"I would lke to show the Europeans Belarus as I see it as a foreigner. It is a very frendly state".
He read a statement that he is abandoning his role as a judge.
Szmydt was very close to Ziobro. He was one of the key figures in a huge scandal which broke in summer of 2019. It turned out that a group of pro-PiS judges were blackmailing anti-PiS judges, threatening them, stalking them online. The whole thing became public when his former wife Emilia Szmydt became a sygnalist and informed the media.
This. Is. Big.
civic wasp
He just appeared at Solovyov
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40305821-sedzia-tomasz-szmydt-wystapil-u-rosyjskiego-propagandysty-wladimira-solowjowa
And here is his declaration of assets for 2022 (2023 not available yet). Even though he was earning 22,5k PLN per month (some 4 avarage wages) he declared nothing but an old car.
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/majatek-tomasza-szmydta-oswiadczenie-sedziego-ktory-szuka-opieki-na-bialorusi-7024664259529664a.html
civic wasp
A PiS and surroundings protest has taken place in Warsaw. Main claim: down with the Green Deal. Some 25-30k people at its peak, according to Onet. Signatures for the Green Deal referendum were being gathered.
No specific postulates were produced. Even though this thing lasts for 4 months now, I still don't know what exactly these people are against.
Kaczyński with top PiS politicians, including former PM Beata Szydło
civic wasp
▶️ Donald Tusk has just created a "Russian and Belarusian influences commission". Unlike the one created by PiS in 2023, this will have only experts, not politicians, it will work discretely and mostly analitically. The first report is to be published in summer. Unofficially it is said that it will finish its work by the end of the year.
More info:
https://oko.press/komisja-rosyjskie-wplywy-tusk-powolal
flint breach
▶️ Donald Tusk has just created a "Russian and Belarusian influences commission"...
Today we only know one name - the head of the commission. It was Brigadier General Jarosław Stróżyk, head of the Military Counterintelligence Service.
based on the article, it sounds like he seems a credible person to include on such a commission. would you agree with that?
final sierra
civic wasp
> Today we only know one name - the head of the commission. It was Brigadier Gen...
Yes, he seems to be a good choice.
vale adder
Wow, this is big.
Tomasz Szmydt, a judge associated closely with former MoJ Zbi...
I've been geolocating Szmydt's social media posts since his escape. You can see the results here: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1LneKneSz1WI2nKtw_ssdMIYkkm4zEgg&usp=sharing
Or read my article (in Polish) https://zaufanatrzeciastrona.pl/post/na-tropie-szmydta-czyli-jak-znalezc-bialoruskiego-szpiega/
civic wasp
Well done my Lord!
slate wagon
I've been geolocating Szmydt's social media posts since his escape. You can see ...
Nice!
How do they line up chronologically? Is it one line? (Sorry, but my Polish is non-existant.)
vale adder
I tried to order them chronologically so the new ones are always at the bottom of the list (for each city/town/village). Today Szmydt is in Grodno/Hrodna.
civic wasp
Ep election in Poland - exit poll for TVN24. If this is accurate it means:
- KO gets the first place fkr the first time since 2014 or so
- Openly antiEU Konfederacja has much better reuekt then in the parliamentary election in October
civic wasp
Couple of hours ago there was a major explosion in "Mesko" military factory in the city of Skarżysko-Kamienna (don't bother pronouncing that). So far we know of one fatal victim and some injured. The cause is unknown but of course there are theories of Russian sabotage since the ABW has arrested some people who were paid by the GRU to set things on fire, over the last weeks.
https://x.com/PGZ_pl/status/1800133741656056025?t=4TtQLn7W0sQC8jrTLOsxDA&s=19
Twitter
rigid summit
https://youtu.be/uqrMlKaW3RY?si=TnlqEOCor0mvoesu&t=168 Mateusz Jarosiewicz I'm not familiar with this guy, but mentions the judge Szmydt that went over to Belarus recently. Snip of the text attached the TG msg that caught my eye. TG source https://t.me/European_dissident/55439 although appears fw from another TG channel "Palestinian Commie". (Edit: timestamp in YT vid was just because of the woman walking backwards, but I'm guessing is just a background vid he's used as same lady later walks in a normal direction)
civic wasp
Jarosiewicz is a well known pro Chinese and lately also pro Russian activist. You'll find most of the leading conspiracy theories with him
Meanwhile, one of former Konfa politicians says he's got "new bunnies", showing alleged immigrants near the border with Belarus. We've seen some "patriots" claiming to be patrolling the area without any control of the state
civic wasp
Oh may I add: he used to own a rabbit farm and put online pictures of these animals skinned
civic wasp
Today the Agency of Internal Security (ABW) has detained a SuwPol (in coalition with PiS) MP Marcin Romanowski. Until the last October, Romanowski was a deputy MoJ and a key figure in the Justice Fund scandal.
Tl;Dr: MoJ Ziobro was giving away hundreds of millions to his electoral districts and to friendly NGOs or perishes, with Romanowski being one of the top responsible. In May it turned out that the Justice Fund director Tomasz Mraz was secretly recording their conversations and, once arrested, decided to cooperate, while also publishing some of the recordings. That's why we know that Romanowski not only knew very well that he was illegally setting up competitions and basically giving away money, but was also arranging a common line of defense with others.
The ABW detained him on the request of the prosecutor office. His immunity was lifted by the parliament last week.
Romanowski claims that he wanted to go to the prosecutors office himself and yet he was waiting for the ABW in his apartment with PiS' TV Republika "journalists".
civic wasp
Meanwhile, the Sejm has almost unanimously (401/460 for) passed the bill regulating the rules of engagement for soldiers, police and the border guard. The bill was an object of controversy, since it basically says that they won't break the law, while using firearms against the procedures, while defending the border.
I'm not that fluent in legal English, so here's a non-paywalled article which explains it in detail.
This bill raises concerns whether our forces won't be allowed to abuse their power against the immigrants at the Belarusian border
civic wasp
Update on MP Romanowski being detained. Turns out that the prosecutors office forgot to notify the Council of Europe so technically he's got an immunity. This is a procedural compromitation.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/organ-rady-europy-reaguje-w-sprawie-romanowskiego-domaga-sie-zawieszenia/30zlk0t,79cfc278?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR02ZRw6dtV2wXZxH41GnXXmud_g3c8aKY-Ermx9S3T7q_mka9QxhfVoEr8_aem_C-5a1z3qrvlQFW_kLqXHlA
civic wasp
The Sejm (lower chamber of the Parliament) has just finished the works of its special commission, investigating the 2020 failed presidential elections.
Long story short: the presidential election was scheduled for May, but due to the COVID pandemic it had to be rescheduled. PiS didn't want to move the date so they pushed very hard for organising a correspondent elections in May. As a result, a number of top PiS politicians were basically forcing the Post Office to organize the elections which were illegal.
The commission concluded this and now will notify the prosecutors office about PiS top of the top breaking the law. I mean: Kaczyński, PM Morawiecki, Minister of State's Assets and deputy PM Jacek Sasin, Sejm speaker Elżbieta Witek and Morawiecki's chief of staff Michał Dworczyk plus a few Postal Office bureocrats.
civic wasp
President Andrzej Duda has vetoed the bill liquidating the infamous "Russian Commission", created by PiS in 2023. He claims that the thing cannot be liquidated, because there are Russian influences in Poland. And he's right. The thing is that the new Commission is already doing its job, and unlike the previous one, it is actually aimed at shedding some light on the Russian influences over Poland.
https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/komisja-do-badania-wplywow-rosyjskich-jest-weto-prezydenta
On other news, you may want to read this piece on Pablo Gonzalez / Pavel Rubtsov, a Spanish-Russian journalist/spy who was swapped back to Russia. This text sheds some light on how he was operating within the Polish left leaning journalists and activists and points out what everyone else missed: that his Polish girlfriend, a freelancer reporter, has also been detained and accused.
robust remnant
Poland, Poznań, city hall had an appointment with recent neonazi march organisers. Subject: complaint that city president refused patronate over their neonazi march.
Said organisers came with neonazi attire (lazy to be honest) and Polish flag modified with some celtic cross (don't look at me like that, I'm no expert symbology nazis like to borrow). Due to said symbols and flag being technically crime, city hall quickly cancelled the meeting, repelled neonazis and reportedly will report them to prosecutor's office.
It is quite controversial because, for one, city watch was present and reportedly served neonazis drinks whilist calling police on journalists who were present. Another reason for controversy is more cultural, as Polish nation has quite a lot of beef with nazism, which is even exploited by right wing politics - could say majority here hates what they hear about that situation.
If I chose wrong channel or reported things poorly, feedback is appreciated. I just wanted to share info, not my plans to do often.
Sources reporting on the matter, below: latter is paywalled.
slate wagon
Poland, Poznań, city hall had an appointment with recent neonazi march organiser...
Hi! It’s not the wrong channel, but I think this information would also be interesting in #far-right-monitoring
robust remnant
Hi! It’s not the wrong channel, but I think this information would *also* be int...
Spending so much time here I should have realised myself.
Thank you much!
civic wasp
Looks like the thing that flew into Poland from Ukraine yesterday, might've been a Shahed drone. I'm curious why there are no reports on explosion. Can these be turned off remotely?
brittle hamlet
It crashed in a remote area I believe?
slate wagon
Looks like the thing that flew into Poland from Ukraine yesterday, might've been...
I completely missed that it didn’t just overfly part of Poland. There looks to be a wood to the north; if it’s there, it may take a little while to find.
abstract gorge
Looks like the thing that flew into Poland from Ukraine yesterday, might've been...
Warhead could have failed to explode, or if it was in a remote area maybe no one was close enough to hear it and report it.
brittle hamlet
I did read more of the military officers media press, they said its also a possibility it flew below radar coverage and headed back to Ukraine
brittle hamlet
civic wasp
big news.
State Electoral Commission has just ruled that PiS misused 3,6 million zlotys (some 800k euros) in the recent parliamentary campaign. Due to that, PiS' financial report is not accepted. PiS will have to pay back triple the amount plus will lose part of their state subsidy.
All in all, in the 2023-2027 parliamentary term, PiS will lose 54 million zlotys or some 12 million euros. Of course this is the good scenario. Now pis will appeal to the Supreme Court where they've got lots of their apparatchiks.
But things are looking good babe 
civic wasp
A bit more context. The appeal will go to the Chamber of Extraordinary Control of the Supreme Court. This chamber was created by pis several years ago and is full of their people. Its creation was a part of Polish "problems" with rule of law pre-2023, as it is not considered a legal court by European tribunals.
civic wasp
Konfederacja has appointed their candidate for 2025 presidential elections. It's the leader of the main part of the party Sławomir Mentzen. There is a rumour that Konfederacja would like to do a primaries with PiS to choose one candidate for both. Looks like this isn't the case now.
civic wasp
And this has been just posted by PiS MEP
https://x.com/Michal_Bilewicz/status/1830172647281315943?t=NrOpR0M9z5GErop2tH86sQ&s=19
Twitter
civic wasp
Yesterday morning the police raided the Independence March Association and its leader Robert Bąkiewicz. The rumoured reason is that there have been some hate speech on the Independence March in 2018, which is technically true. But imho the police wouldnt get a warrant to search his house and offices based on just that. From what I know it's more likely that the real reason is some 10+ million ot public zlotys (2.5-3mln euros) that were transferred to Bąkiewicz and his entities from PiS.
abstract gorge
I guess this at least somewhat fits in here: https://vxtwitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1834598338341085492
civic wasp
Floods.
SW Poland being flooded since Friday. One dam in Stronie Śląskie broke down, three other are already full, the water pouring over them. Several towns are partially flooded: Stronie Śląskie, Kłodzko, Prudnik, Czechowice-Dziedzice, Nysa, Głuchołazy where the water took down two bridges. Hundreds of people have been evacuated and this number will surely rise significantly. Two people died.
PM Tusk announced that the gov will invoke a state of natural disaster.
We are waiting whether two biggest Silesian cities of Opole and Wrocław will be flooded as well. Wrocław claims that they are ready and the 1997 scenario won't happen again because the infrastructure is way better. It is true that in some places the water is higher than in 1997 but smaller area is flooded.
Nevertheless, this will cost billions.
Some pictures:
Broken dam in Stronie Śląskie
Live relation might be found here
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/wroclaw/dramatyczna-sytuacja-w-nysie-trwa-ewakuacja-telefony-padly-baterie-na-wyczerpaniu/pvs3khh?utm_source=livebar&utm_campaign=newsy_sg
Reportedly 800cm of water in Kłodzko. 655 in 1997
lilac sphinx
robust remnant
Seeing places od my childhood completely submerged... surreal.
civic wasp
New forecasts say they the wave heading toward Wrocław will be one meter higher and almost as high as in 1997. Part of the city will be flooded.
civic wasp
And the death toll rised to three.
civic wasp
And four.
civic wasp
City of Kłodzko
https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=870719298363795
Plus we've got an info about another dam breaking down. The wave will probably reach the town of Paczków (population 6700) around 2PM.
https://www.facebook.com/SiecObserwatorowBurz/videos/1577325049849495
civic wasp
Broken dam over Paczków
https://x.com/maciej_perzyna/status/1835621429162774817?t=xQYj_Sq3aNLI2QZ95dm9Og&s=19
Twitter
civic wasp
Mayor of Nysa, city with 44k residents called for immediate evacuations. The whole town might go underwater.
still anchor
Head of the wave on Odra came to Wrocław today. So far it's lower than anticipated and under 97 levels (thank fuck)
elfin bay
There's reporting, both in news and by the government, that a man was arrested who was dressed in military uniform and driving around with fake plates, spreading false information that some floodwalls are to be destroyed in controlled explosion.
tranquil sandal
There's reporting, both in news and by the government, that a man was arrested w...
Please post the reporting here
slate wagon
Did any dykes get broken? Not by force of nature or by sabotage, but carefully planned to relieve other areas?
elfin bay
No from what I can tell. There was some unexpected water release from emergency reservoir, but that's all. I think everyone and their grandmas would hesitate before repeating most controversial 1997 action.
slate wagon
Okay… it would be a bit late to figure out where to do it now. Sounds like there were no pre-prepared plans for that.
brittle hamlet
No from what I can tell. There was some unexpected water release from emergency ...
what was that?
elfin bay
Polish electricity company didn't coordinate removal of water from from hydroelectronic reservoir into another one with agency responsible for all hydrological matters in Poland.
lilac sphinx
Is this AI generated?
slate wagon
Is this AI generated?
Doesn't appear to be.
https://streetartutopia.com/2024/09/18/i-know-youre-not-thinking-you-never-do-mural-on-donald-trump-in-pila-poland/
https://www.instagram.com/teetoss?igsh=MTQwYjd5NHV2azl6cw==
https://www.instagram.com/ohman_graffink?igsh=MXR3Ynh2dmd1Y21kcQ==
lilac sphinx
Thanks. Embarassing, isn't it.
frozen grove
Every place has its bad apples
lilac sphinx
I observe a significant uptick in so called "patrol obywatelski" posts on Facebook recently. It's like russian trolls want to incite similar riots in PL as in UK...
civic wasp
I'm on at least two "citizen patrols" groups on FB and yes. I've seen at least one openly pro Russian activist (certain Mirosław Rostankowski) spreading anti-Western propaganda.
This thing started couple of months ago with the Belarussian border and was described on OKO.press here: https://oko.press/obroncy-granicy-nawoluja-do-obalenia-rzadu
Now the new wave began some 2 weeks ago when a group of 4 Colombians and 1 Argentinian has a fist fight with some Poles in a minor town in western Poland. This led to local football hools and nationalists to call for "patrols" which then spreaded to more towns. As described here:
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/patrole-obywatelskie-obnizaja-poziom-bezpieczenstwa-w-polsce/
Or here: https://gloswielkopolski.pl/patrole-obywatelskie-w-sremie-i-korniku-mieszkancy-wyszli-na-ulice-to-efekt-sobotnich-wydarzen-na-sremskiej-plazy-miejskiej/ar/c1p2-26759455
Partially these were initiated by a certain youtuber named Rafał Podejma, known on YT as "Antikonfident", who (apparently being coked AF) was calling for defending our streets, our women etc. and claiming that in his previous life he was talking to old Slavic ghosts or whatever.
lilac sphinx
Racists from Żyrardów chased immigrants out of a hostel. "They beat them up, hounded them. Now there's no one to work" https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31335704,rasisci-z-zyrardowa-przegonili-imigrantow-cudzoziemcy-odeszli.html
lilac sphinx
Funny it's always the right that wants to delete the Constitution: https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/kaczynski-zapowiada-ze-po-wygranych-wyborach-pis-powola-rade-stanu-i-zniesie-konstytucje-z-1997-r
robust remnant
Funny it's always the right that wants to delete the Constitution: https://oko.p...
In the name of democracy and values of course.
civic wasp
Polish Onet and Swiss radio and TV broadcaster concluded that the president of Orlen Trading Switzerland, sub-entity of Polish state-controlled petrol giant Orlen, was indeed dealing with people participating in illegal export of Iranian oil.
Samer Awad is a Lebanese living in Poland for some 20 years. When Orlen launched its entity in Switzerland (OTS), Orlen's vice president pushed for Awad's nomination. Orlen's internal security services warned that the man is involved with ASB Group which is considered by the US DoJ to be supporting Iranian oil export and co-financing Hezbollah. Onet and SRF found e-mails from Awad to ASB 's Kasim Oztas, where they plan signing some contract in Instanbul and it looks like it's about renting/buying oil tankers.
The memo from Orlen internal security was sent to PM Morawiecki, Jaroslaw Kaczyński and several ministers at the end of 2023.
Shortly after OTS was launched it made a deal on Venezuelan oil. They paid over 300 million USD in advance to some fictional company from Dubai, probably ran by 25 y/o citizen of Hong Kong, which was launched just one month before the deal. Of course the oil never arrived and the money disappeared.
The main article is paywalled but it's anywhere now:
https://tvn24.pl/biznes/ze-swiata/onet-szef-spolki-orlenu-utrzymywal-kontakty-z-ludzmi-wspierajacymi-terroryzm-st8118128
civic wasp
Literally wtf. PM Tusk says he's gonna "suspend" the asylum right. It's meant to be temporary and territorially constrained but still I don't see how this may be legal.
civic wasp
It seems that this may be legal after all. Or at least compliant with the migration pact.
digital loom
BBC article on the asylum suspension https://archive.ph/FSiG6
brittle hamlet
Its been done in other countries, and afaik its a law that would permit suspension in event of a crisis
Given what western countries do to circumvent their international obligations, it would be really something to see Poland, facing hybrid warfare through state pushed migration patterns, get called out
civic wasp
Yes, it turns out that the Migration Pact allows temporal suspension.
brittle hamlet
civic wasp
An ex actor and celebrity Jarosław Jakimowicz made a tournee in Belarus, posting a lot of sarcastic prorussian crap on his Instagram. Jakimowicz was a PiS TVP expert and host for couple of years, until he was fired for alleged sexual misconduct. If you need a definition of an useful idiot, here's one.
https://www.instagram.com/jarek.jakimowicz?igsh=YnlkY3QyeWRscHh1
civic wasp
MOD gave a conference where they revealed that PiS' vice president and former MoD (2015-2018) Antoni Macierewicz, who was also a pope of the 'Smolensk assassination' cult, met with a certain Alexander Glaskov from Russia, received an USB stick with "interesting data" on the Smolensk catastrophe and haven't informed the military counterintelligence for 5 days, effectively making them unable to act. The PiS' MOD after Macierewicz, Mariusz Błaszczak was informed about this and did nothing.
Macierewicz was also found to be meeting with some UK Russian for 3 years, letting him to the subcommittee inner information, without knowing his actual name.
The current MOD in general summed up the works of the Macierewicz's Smolensk subcommittee. They prepared over 40 subpoenas to the prosecutor's office.
The deputy MoD Tomczyk also showed a bunch of e-mails, proving that Macierewicz and his team were delibirately lying to the public about the Smoleńsk catastrophe, cherry picking data, hiding whole reports etc.
From another news: the left wing of the New Left party has just splitted. The Party Together (Razem) had 8 MPs and now 2 senators and 3 members of the Sejm leave the party with some 30 other politicians to join the coalition. The situation is a bit complicated so let me explain.
The New Left consists fo three parties:
- SLD - basically the post-post-commies
- Spring - created in 2019 by MEP Robert Biedroń which doesn' do much
- Razem - which initially was anti-SLD and grouped younger and more "true-left" activists to eventually join the old guard
The New Left is a part of the ruling coalition with Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) and the Third Way.
BUT. Razem didn't enter the coalition. So they were formally a part of a coalition party which was part of the government, but they didn't participate. Due to this and some other factors, tensions were rising for several months. The splitters, including Razem vice-president Magdalena Biejat decided to leave Razem to join the government.
Polish left twitter is a poopstorm right now and the right and the liberals are basically rofling.
https://oko.press/rozlam-w-razem-polityczki-odchodza-z-partii-jak-do-tego-doszlo
lilac sphinx
civic wasp
Big News.
General Jarosław Stróżyk, the head of the Military Counterintelligence Service (SKW) has just presented some findings, done by the Russian Commission he runs. The full report was approved at the gov meeting yesterday and some parts are to be disclosed in mid November.
For the first time ever I feel like the Polish state is taking this seriously. The Commission is scrutinizing various fields of Russian influence on Poland: political, business, media, disinformation, military etc. A lot of what have been already established by the investigative journalists was confirmed. Among other things: that the PiS MoD Antoni Macierewicz was deliberately destroying the Polish secret services and the army. Charges of "diplomatic treason" are to be pushed against him soon.
General Stróżyk also pointed out that it seems like people around president Andrzej Duda are intentionally hiding important info about Macierewicz.
I won't lie: this is what I've been waiting for. For far too long PiS' Russian connections were laughed at and ignored even though the body of evidence was only growing.
This is all over Polish media right now, but here's an unpaywalled example
lilac sphinx
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,31439752,abw-zatrzymalo-obywatela-niemiec-jest-podejrzany-o-zalozenie.html google translate "German and Polish police have dismantled a militarised right-wing extremist group called the Saxon Separatists. Eight arrests were made, mainly in the border state of Saxony, but also in Poland. The group's leader was arrested in the Polish city of Zgorzelec.
The dismantled group was formed four years ago: The group's main area of operations, numbering 15 to 20 people, is Saxony. Its members wanted to seize power by conducting military operations in various areas, starting with the areas around Leipzig and Dresden. (...) The detained leader is a 23-year-old German citizen, Jörge S. He was charged with founding and being a member of a terrorist organization considered to be "armed right-wing extremism of a neo-Nazi nature"
lilac sphinx
lilac sphinx
lilac sphinx
lilac sphinx
https://www-pap-pl.translate.goog/aktualnosci/prezydent-wroclawia-jacek-sutryk-zatrzymany-przez-cba-ma-uslyszec-zarzuty?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp " The Central Anticorruption Bureau detained the mayor of Wrocław on Thursday morning in connection with the Collegium Humanum case, informed Jacek Dobrzyński, spokesman for the Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration.
"This morning, in a case of suspected crimes and irregularities at Collegium Humanum, at the prosecutor's request, CBA agents detained the mayor of Wrocław. After completing the procedural activities, the detainee was transported to the branch office of the National Prosecutor's Office in Katowice," Dobrzyński reported on platform X" (autotranslated)
brittle hamlet
civic wasp
National Electoral Commission has denied PiS' financial report. This is a result of PiS spending 💰 they weren't allowed to use on 2023 parliamentary election. There is some power play going on in the Commission, but for now it seems like PiS is going to lose some 75 million zlotys, that is some 17 million euro.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-sprawozdanie-finansowe-pis-pkw-podjela-decyzje,nId,7858099
civic wasp
The primaries in the Civic Coalition (KO - Donald Tusk's party, the biggest member of the ruling coalition) are over. Their candidate in the 2025 presidential election will be Rafał Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw. Trzaskowski aquired a landslide victory over MoFA Radosław Sikorski, getting 74% of party's votes.
My pros:
- in 2020 he barely lost to Duda (51 to 49) so he has the ability to win with PiS' candidate
- he will probably sign any bill expanding the right to abortion, LGBT+ etc., thus hopefully ending the "we'd do that, but Duda will veto it anyway" attitude
- he has 6 years of experience as a mayor od a 2-million city with a multi-billion budget and as a citizen of said city, I think he's doing pretty well
- unlike Sikorski, PiS won't be able to attack him with bs claims of Russian espionage
My cons:
- unlike Sikorski, he has no experience in foreign relations, diplomacy, defence - which is kind of crucial these days
- he will be attacked over his alleged "wokeness"
- he has this image of being a member of a detached elite, which surely will be used in the campaign
civic wasp
Meanwhile, there is a rumour that Warner Bros wants to sell Polish TVN network. Rumour says that there's even an investor on the horizon and he is from Hungary. Daniel Obajtek, PiS nominated head of the Orlen petrol giant said in an interview that soon he'll be visiting this studio more frequently "like entering my own home".
If this happened, it would cause a tectonical shift in Polish media, with TVN being the biggest TVN independent from PiS, falling into PiS hands. PiS tried to force Warner Bros to sell TVN to one of Polish state companies (at that time controlled by PiS), but Biden's administration prevented this from happening. Rumour says that Trump will allow this.
What a fun time to be alive.
https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/659806/tvn-idzie-pod-mlotek-plan-partii-kaczynskiego.html
civic wasp
PiS presidential candidate was officially announced today. It is Karol Nawrocki, age 41.
You may remember that a couple of years ago PiS took over the Museum of World War II in Gdańsk... It was Nawrocki who was appointed a new head. In 2021 he was moved to lead the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) - an important institution, widely used by PiS to rewrite history and smear their enemies (IPN) has all the communist secret police archives).
It is worth mentioning, that they presented him as the "citizen candidate", meaning that he is not from the party 🙃
brittle hamlet
So anything overtly PiS is toxic, while trying to appeal to the right as broadly as possible perhaps
civic wasp
I forgot to put a link on Nawrocki: https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karol_Nawrocki
lilac sphinx
https://wiadomosci-onet-pl.translate.goog/kraj/szef-ipn-komentuje-znajomosc-z-groznym-przestepca-chlopak-po-przejsciach/6khxp64?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp "Karol Nawrocki, president of the Institute of National Remembrance and a candidate for the Law and Justice party in the upcoming presidential elections, has found himself in the spotlight following reports by "Rzeczpospolita" about his acquaintance with Patryk Masiak, known as "The Big Boo", a former member of a gang of pimps convicted of kidnapping. "
lilac sphinx
civic wasp
Interesting, yeah
civic wasp
PiS MEP Ryszard Czarnecki (2004-2024) next to the Romanian AUR leader.
https://x.com/PR24_pl/status/1863318737337630727?t=8isVeFsYo1B_T5ButnDr2g&s=19
Twitter
lilac sphinx
There's "internal" PiS report about Karol Nawrocki, it leaked yesterday (autotranslation follows): "Karol Nawrocki and his environment. Analysis of image threats in the context of the possible start of the President of the Institute of National Remembrance in the presidential elections of 2025" https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31509641,wyborcza-ujawnia-co-jest-w-raporcie-o-nawrockim-mamy-caly.html (paywall) https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41526941-raport-o-nawrockim-ko-ostro-o-niebezpiecznych-zwiazkach-szefa-ipn "The President of the Institute of National Remembrance and a potential PiS candidate for the President of the Republic of Poland has been and is moving in a company that includes many decent, honest and patriotic Lechia fans and boxing enthusiasts, but at the same time it is a company of ruthless bandits and neo-Nazis."
civic wasp
Reposted from #far-right-monitoring
Poland: man named Olgierd L., a member of organized crime and neonazi groups in Tricity (coastal aglomeration of Gdańsk, Gdynia and Sopot) was arrested today by the Internal Security Agency (ABW). According to RMF FM radio, he is connected to Russian-organized arsons, which happened all over Poland in Spring. According to what I know about this milieu - it makes perfect sense.
This comes literally days after his name comes back in a "report", detailing multiple connections between Tricity's neonazi/crime gropus/football hools and PiS' candidate for 2025 presidential elections Karol Nawrocki. The "report" (may I upload it here?) is of unknown origins and authors. There are speculations that either PiS asked somebody to produce to find potential dirt on their own candidate, that it was produced by one faction inside the party or that it's actually a ruling coalition doing. At this point: we don't know. Either way, most of its content is a compilation of openly accesible photographs, social media posts and some older pieces of material from several media.
RMF FM article: https://www.rmf24.pl/regiony/trojmiasto/news-olgierd-l-zatrzymany-w-tle-akty-dywersji-i-sabotazu,nId,7869660#google_vignette
also: I've read the full report. It doesn't look like a work done by a professional agency, consulting firm or osint group. I'm leaning towards the explanation that one PiS faction wanted to attack the other
sinful rain
This week, the organization "Last Generation" (https://ostatniepokolenie.org/) which raises awareness about climate change and advocates for universal, affordable public transportation, carried out daily road blockades in the center of Warsaw. The action aimed to draw attention to the government's current inaction in addressing climate change. https://www.instagram.com/p/DDC5arPOitt/?hl=en
The organization's activities and protests sparked widespread reactions. Climate change deniers, in particular, were vocal in attacking the group. Numerous articles and interviews on the subject appeared in the media. Last week, Prime Minister Donald Tusk threatened to use force against the protesting activists (https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1863545242118422934), a move that was criticized by non-governmental organizations.
"Donald Tusk is going to war with the "Last Generation" group blocking roads in Warsaw. "We have a history of farmer protests, where not only streets but also border crossings were blocked. Why wasn't there a similar reaction back then?" says Jarosław Jagura from the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights." https://oko.press/ostatnie-pokolenie-tusk-policja
sinful rain
The EU's reinforcement of the western border is planned under the "Eastern Shield" program. (https://x.com/PremierRP/status/1862773424420258011) It includes building fortifications and a 15-km buffer zone extending into Poland.
One issue is expropriating and relocating indigenous residents, including descendants of Tatars. (https://reportaze.onet.pl/historie/mozaika-polska-tatarzy/zfgpngc) These communities have faced forced relocations historically. Widespread land expropriation is also expected, sparking local resistance. (https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/budowa-tarczy-wschod-mon-nie-wyklucza-wywlaszczen/bfpxtn6)
The area's militarization already provokes mixed reactions. While some feel safer, documented abuses raise concerns. A military truck hit and killed protected bison (https://oko.press/stare-masiewo-zubr-zabity-przez-wojskowa-ciezarowke) , and soldiers accidentally fired at each other, prompting ammunition restrictions. (https://x.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1798651699235582344) Soldiers also disrupted an LGBT+ wedding. (https://tvn24.pl/bialystok/wyczolki-obrazali-i-pluli-na-zolnierzy-po-weselu-dwoch-aktywistek-policja-wszczela-dochodzenie-dwie-osoby-z-zarzutami-st8007158)
Border guards transporting handcuffed refugees overturned their vehicle. (https://x.com/CzabanPiotr/status/1855136365425369442) Local POPH activists likely prevented a tragedy. Journalists have since called "Eastern Shield" the "Tusk's Scam." (https://krytykapolityczna.pl/multimedia/podcast/tarcza-wschod-czy-wal-tuska/)
Twitter
Twitter
sinful rain
At the beginning of this year, a brutal rape and murder of a 25-year-old Ukrainian woman occurred in central Warsaw (https://tvn24.pl/tvnwarszawa/najnowsze/warszawa-atak-na-25-latke-na-zurawiej-myslaly-ze-sa-swiadkami-seksu-poszly-dalej-zgwalcona-liza-nie-zyje-st7801849) The crime shocked public opinion, and attention turned to the Warsaw city hall Politicians accused city authorities of passivity, while defenders argued nothing could have been done post-factum
Recently, another tragic incident happened in Warsaw. A young police officer fatally shot his senior partner during an intervention (https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-11-30/policjant-zastrzelil-policjanta-co-wydarzylo-sie-w-praskiej-bramie/), sparking debate about police training. Social activists also pointed out the intervention's location—a notorious hub for large-scale drug trafficking. Once again, attention shifted to the city hall. A left-wing activist published a provocative video titled "Warsaw – City of Sin" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvkoln-06XI)
The case has taken a political turn as Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafał_Trzaskowski), a Civic Coalition presidential candidate, faces criticism over crisis management
Warsaw has long been governed by Civic Platform-affiliated mayors. Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, the previous mayor, became infamous for a reprivatization scandal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reprivatisation_fraud_in_Warsaw), during which criminals violently evicted tenants. Jolanta Brzeska, an activist exposing these abuses, was found burned alive in a forest near Warsaw (https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jolanta_Brzeska). The perpetrators remain unidentified, and the murder case was closed earlier this year
The activist who published the video criticizing Warsaw's authorities, Jan Śpiewak, was once an active member of Gronkiewicz-Waltz’s camp. However, following the reprivatization scandal, he became a fierce opponent of the Civic Platform.
sinful rain
For many months now, various scandals have been unfolding in Poland under the banner of "Colegium Humanum" [https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/afera-collegium-humanum-nowe-ustalenia-7001568738691616a.html]. The rector of this private university has been arrested on charges of accepting bribes. He sold MBA diplomas to students who didn’t attend classes. The problem escalated when it was revealed that politicians from many parties hold MBA diplomas from this university. A law allows individuals with an MBA to sit on state-owned company boards, meaning politicians seeking lucrative positions must hold an MBA [https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/spoleczenstwo/ryszard-czarnecki-zatrzymany-przez-cba-sprawa-ma-zwiazek-z-collegium-humanum/3pv2wjd].
After the scandal, many people started asking which lawmakers bought their diplomas. The list of graduates includes politicians from almost all factions. Recently, the mayor of Wrocław was arrested [https://fakty.tvn24.pl/zobacz-fakty/prezydent-wroclawia-zatrzymany-przez-cba-sprawa-ma-zwiazek-z-afera-collegium-humanum-st8179968]. He was supported by the Civic Coalition (KO) and directly by Rafał Trzaskowski, the KO’s presidential candidate [https://www.tokfm.pl/Tokfm/7,103087,31465747,sutryk-z-zarzutami-momentalnie-pojawily-sie-wycieczki-w-strone.html].
This is not the end of the problems with this university. Another "third way" candidate, Szymon Hołownia, running for president, does not have a higher education degree. Media leaks suggest he allegedly wanted to study at "Colegium Humanum," whose lecturer faces corruption charges. Hołownia says he only visited to assess the situation. He now suggests the information was leaked by the authorities to discredit him as a candidate, especially since he is part of the ruling coalition. The leak is suspected to have been orchestrated by circles around Donald Tusk [https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-12-02/szymon-holownia-w-gosciu-wydarzen-transmisja-w-polsat-news/].
sinful rain
In Poland, the presidential election has begun. The Polish president doesn’t hold significant power but can veto government decisions. The two main parties, PiS (Law and Justice) and PO (Civic Platform), aim to secure this position to push their respective political agendas.
The two leading candidates are more public figures than actual power holders. The real decisions lie in the hands of the leaders of PiS and PO, Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk.
On December 7th, Kaczyński activated a profile on X (formerly Twitter) (https://x.com/pisorgpl/status/1865822423406240066). This is the first time we’ve seen him with an official account. Kaczyński is known for being skeptical about the internet, once famously stating that the internet is filled with pornography and harmful content (https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/polska/news-jaroslaw-kaczynski-przeprasza-za-wypowiedz-o-internautach,nId,179514). Thus, his appearance on X was quite shocking.
He also shared a post featuring his "cat," which is a well-known aspect of his persona. The image of him as an "old man with a cat" is widely recognized in Poland (https://x.com/OficjalnyJK/status/1865684631997030700).
What’s truly interesting is that his profile attracted a comment from Donald Tusk (https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1865404952987738481). This marks the first public interaction between these two figures in over 15 years. Typically, their confrontations have been limited to personal attacks during government meetings.
This new dynamic could introduce an unprecedented element into Polish politics. If they continue this "tweeting battle," it might become a significant influence on the presidential election.
civic wasp
Andrzej Stankiewicz from Onet (one of the biggest media outlets) claims that within days it will be announced that TVN group will be sold to either a Czech billionaire, Hungarian Orban-related TV2 or both.
robust remnant
That's... absolutely terrible.
civic wasp
Meanwhile, President Duda appointed Bogdan Święczkowski as a new President of the Constitutional Court. Święczkowski is one of the closest associates of former DoJ Zbigniew Ziobro, so given his power to set the adjudicating panels, we'll probably see more of the same. That means: our Constitutional Court is still under heavy PiS influence and will remain so until 2031 when Święczkowski's term will end. This comes ON TOP of the fact, that for the last several years all CC ruling may be contested since PiS filled it with illegally chosen members and then illegally chose its president.
https://oko.press/prezydent-powolal-bogdana-swieczkowskiego-na-prezesa-trybunalu-konstytucyjnego
Our constitutional crisis is still on
civic wasp
Meanwhile PM Tusk said he's going to pull TVN and Polsat TV stations on a "strategic importance" list. It means that the government will have to allow any ownership changes. This comes after weeks of rumours that TVN, generally considered a mainstream pro-liberal TV, is going to be sold by Americans to Hungarian oligarch, who owns a propaganda channel TV2. Rumour says that said Hungarian oligarch was to promote some important PiS politician as a new CEO of TVN - the name of former Orlen's CEO Daniel Obajtek was mentioned.
Now this will be prohibited.
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/tvn-i-polsat-pod-specjalna-ochrona-tusk-zapowiada-7102122775177888a.html
civic wasp
Supreme court ruled that national Electoral Commission cannot withold PiS subvention. This means that MoF is obliged to transfer the funds.
This is highly controversial, since the chamber giving this ruling is basically illegal in the light of European law. This was expected though. The verdict was published by SC judge Aleksander Stępkowski, former president of Ordo Iuris.
civic wasp
Aaaand the Electoral Commission said that they won't care about SC ruling, since this chamber was illegal. Our judicial chaos is still here.
robust remnant
Better chaos than full compliance to illegal SC but still.
civic wasp
Meanwhile there is an arrest warrant on Marcin Romanowski, PiS deputy MoJ, who is accused of defrauding millions of zlotys in the Justice Fund.
civic wasp
Services confirm that they know his location but an European Arrest warrant will be needed. It shall be published tomorrow
sinful rain
civic wasp
Court in Warsaw issued an European Arrest Warrant on Marcin Romanowski, ex deputy MoJ. Rumour says he's hiding in Spain, while being watched. If this is true, he should be arrested within days.
civic wasp
Aaaand his attorney (from Ordo Iuris) just annouced that Romanowski has received a political asylum in Hungary
civic wasp
I was seen as a hawk in the government, in terms of the scope of changes, but today, compared to many colleagues who are observing what is happening, I am a dove. My views back then were very mild in relation to what we will do when we return and have to restore the rule of law in Poland - former DoJ Zbigniew Ziobro, who was very much responsible for the constitutional crisis
lilac sphinx
Racists from Żyrardów chased immigrants out of a hostel. "They beat them up, hou...
There are some good news: https://oko.press/antyimigranckie-patrole-obywatelskie-rozbrojone (machine translated) "Anti-immigrant “citizen patrols” disarmed. When the state wants to, it can
Anti-immigrant “citizen patrols” gathered in dozens of Polish cities in the fall. Men with far-right views gathered to deal with foreigners by force. However, this radical initiative disappeared from Polish streets. The police intervened (...) A few months ago, there was a lot of noise in Poland about an anti-immigrant initiative to create grassroots “citizen patrols,” or militias fighting migrants in Poland. The “patrols” were quickly joined by young men from other cities, and in Żyrardów there was a fight and an attack on a hostel. Today, however, nothing has come of the initiative. (...) How did citizen patrols stop appearing on the streets? The reason is simple: the police responded to the initiative to create anti-immigrant militias, and the prosecutor's office also joined in. Their actions brought real results: groups of far-right men stopped gathering."
civic wasp
I covered the issue of PiS state subsidy with neccessary historical context
https://x.com/PutinizmPolski/status/1874766981166948498
Twitter
civic wasp
▶️ Presidential elections will be held on May 18th. This may be a good moment to briefly describe the candidates.
Rafał Trzaskowski - KO (Tusk's party) candidate - mayor of Warsaw since 2018. He is considered progressive and proEuropean, competent with managing multibillion budget and likely to sign bills expanding human rights. Lacks experience in the fields of foreign affairs, military and defence. For now all polls indicate that he will win, getting some 35% in the first turn.
Karol Nawrocki - PiS (Kaczyński's party) candidate - head of the National Rememberance Institute since 2021, before that head of the Museum of Second World War since 2017 - in both acting as a conveyor of PiS propaganda. Has no major experience in governing anything bigger. He says he will veto any bill expanding human rights (abortion, LGBT+, etc.). He is posing as an independent candidate which is an object of jokes. Polls currently give him around 28% which means that he will likely get into second turn with Trzaskowski.
Szymon Hołownia - speaker of the lower chamber of the Parliament and a leader of Poland 2050 party. Devoted Christian, positioning himself as an alternative for the PiS-KO duopoly. Currently getting about 12% in the polls. His aim is to get to the second round but it's unlikely to happen.
Sławomir Mentzen - one of the leaders of Konfederacja, leading its libertarian wing. Mentzen's real aim is to get on the podium, that is to surpass Hołownia at a third place. IMO he might get it, but likely won't pass 15%.
Magdalena Biejat - one of the leaders of the New Left. The situation in the party is super-complicated. Until recently Biejat was a co-leader of the left wing of the New Left, that is the Razem party ("Together"). Couple of months ago Razem fell apart, Biejat and her people split and joined the New Left core, which is a part of the ruling coalition. That's probably why she got the nomination. The polls give her some 6% now and I don't see her rising above 10%.
Adrian Zandberg - the second leader of Razem, the one who stayed, is also said to be running. I doubt that he'll get more than 2%.
Krzysztof Stanowski - the black horse of this race. Stanowski is not a politician but a... football journalist and businessman. And also kind of a celebrity recently. For years he was mostly commenting sports, then moved to politics and eventually, in 2024, launched a large YT media channel Kanał Zero ("Zero Channel"). He is probably closest to Konfederacja but isn't exactly there. IMO it's hard to predict who he may back in the second round. Stanowski himself says that he runs to "expose the circus" and promote himself and his medium. His support is questionable for now, but he surely has the capacities to finance his campaign. In February 2024, just as he annouced his attempt, the polls gave him some 9%.
Marek Jakubiak - brewery businesmann from the the far-right Free Republicans - probably won't pass 1%
Stanisław Żółtek - leader of a PolExit party and an ooooold apparatchik of the far right libertarians. Unlikely to pass 1%. Questionable whether he'll gather the 100 signatures.
Maciej Wilk - pro-PiS activist, probably won't even get the signatures
Piotr Szumlewicz - formally from a left-leaning work union, in reality it's hard to precisely point to his agenda. Probably won't get 100 thousand signatures
slate wagon
So it’s a first round and then a run-off between the top two?
robust remnant
Yes, it usually works like that here.
civic wasp
So it’s a first round and then a run-off between the top two?
Unless somebody gets 50% in the first round. A lot relies on who'l receive the support from the remaining candidates. An argument could be made that Trzaskowski could've won the second round with Duda in 2020 if Hołownia, who came in third, clearly supported him
civic wasp
Update: the rumour is finally confirmed. Grzegorz Braun, the most extreme Konfederacja leader, joins the race. Braun leads the Confederation of Polish Crown, which is the smallest part of Konfederacja. Even by Konfie standards, he's crazy and radical. He's known for his religious fundamentalism, antisemitic obsession, wide range of conspiracy theories and openly pro-Russian attitude.
Him running is kinda funny though, because he will compete against his party collegue Sławomir Mentzen, who is the main leader of Konfederacja.
I don't think that Braun will get more than 1,5%. But this may be the 1,5% deciding whether Mentzen will come up as third or not.
civic wasp
Aaaand Mentzen says they're splitting
civic wasp
Braun formally kicked out of Konfederacja.
slate wagon
Braun formally kicked out of Konfederacja.
How many parts were there to this confederacy?
robust remnant
I recall 4-5
Braun founded one of them, KKP (Confederation of Polish Crown 🤦♀️), but I dunno if entire party (part of Konfederacja federation) will pull out as result, or he just got rejected.
civic wasp
How many parts were there to this confederacy?
Long story short: ever since 1990s the far right was in a mess. Parties were being formed, they would split, merge, disperse etc. on a daily basis. But in 2015 a certain rockman decided to enter politics and he pulled a lot of nationalists into his party (which has since then basically dissolved), therefore effectively making them MPs. Since then the nationalists understood that maybe they should unite with conservative libertarians and some other plankton. In 2019, prior to the EP election, they formed an umbrella party called Konfederacja. There were several parts of it, but after some fuss it eventually looked like this:
-
The biggest part (some 50%) are the conservative libertarians, for years led by Janusz Korwin-Mikke. JKM, or Korwin as we simply call him, was openly prorussian, extremely pro-open-market, he saw socialism everywhere, was also completely unpredictable even to his own acolytes. Eventually, in 2022 he retired and the steering wheel was taken over by much younger Sławomir Mentzen. In 2023, when he once again popped up with public approval of pedophilia, effectively sabotaging Konfederacja's parlamentary result, he was finally kicked out, taking relatively few apparatchiks with him. Since then it is renamed to New Hope (Nowa Nadzieja) and is led by Mentzen.
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The Nationalist Movement - self-explanatory name, some 40% of Konfederacja. Although it's worth mentioning that they were orbiting around Korwin for so many years that they merged their nationalist views with some of his hardcore libertarianism. They basically do everything that you may expect from such formation. Their current leader is Krzysztof Bosak. They have direct ties to Ordo Iuris, some of them got some serious neonazi past, there are a lot of conspiracy theorists and RusslandVerstehers.
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The smallest part, until this week, was Confederation of the Polish Crown, led by Grzegorz Braun, the one who's getting kicked out as we speak. Braun was even crazier than Korwin, but probably more predictible. Completely antisemitic, he would merge basically any conspiracy theory he'd stumble upon (including Jews having huge underground operational base under a swimming pool some 50km from Warsaw or Jews creating a New Jerusalem in Ukraine), openly prorussian, openly anti-ukrainian. All of that sprinkled with catholic fundamentalism. From Mentzen and Bosak's point of view, Braun was a troublemaker, just like Korwin. But until now they tolerated his erratic behaviour because he did bring his 1-2% to the table.
So if you'd compare it to the situation in 2023, Konfies have got basically the same support around 10-15%, but they lost the ballast of their two craziest and most unpredictable men. Nobody will now pop up with pedophilia or Jews pulling the strings etc. Plus the two leaders (Mentzen and Bosak) are relatively young. Plus Konfies, like the far right everywhere, are good at internet marketing.
But let me be clear: when I say that kicking Korwin and Braun out makes them look more acceptable, I don't, by any means, mean that this is a normal party now. They're still full of batshit crazy conspiracy theorists, political radicals and neo-fascists with clear authoritarian ambitions. It's just that now they will likely be more capable of hiding it from the general public.
civic wasp
Krzysztof Stanowski's, the said "black horse" of this election, produced a message to the nation. I encourage you to watch this with English subtitles (only generated automatically) to get the sense of his ridiculous intentions. Stanowski openly says that he's not willing to become the President and his sole purpose is to expose the lies and circus of Polish politics.
This is exactly what we needed...
https://youtu.be/ja4NNpK8xZI?si=JhJuntkhEYlWmHBD
lilac sphinx
I won't be commenting on that, because it would mean a lot of swear words. Taken from here https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/2024-06/affordable_and_quality_housing_leaflet.pdf final version expected in 2025
civic wasp
Zbigniew Ziobro, former DoJ for the 4th time didn't attend the Parliamentary Pegasus Commission to answer questions. The commission used its prerogative to drag him there by force, using police. Ziobro hid in the studio of PiS TV Republika. What we witnessed the most embarrassing thing I've seen in a while. Republika "journalists" were physically blocking the police from entering the building, streaming all of that live with a narrative about "regime oppression". Of course it was exactly the kind of theatre, Ziobro wanted.
Ziobro was finally taken to the Parliament building, but meanwhile the Commission's hearing was done. Now Ziobro will be arrested for 30 days. The Sejm has to lift his immunity first.
civic wasp
President of the Constitutional Court Bogdan Święczkowski (Ziobro's closest man) issued a crime notification, claiming that the government is into coup d'etat. The official reason behind this is that Tusk and others "try to restrict the prerogatives of Constitutional Court, Judiciary Committee and Supreme Court's chamber", thus being an "organized crime group". Coincidentally all three are entities that have been ruled, by both Polish and EU courts, invalidly appointed during PiS' "lawfulness crisis". That means that their ruling are basically non-existent.
I encourage to read these long Wikipedia articles on CC crisis
https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kryzys_wokół_Trybunału_Konstytucyjnego_w_Polsce
SC and Judiciary Committee crisis
https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kryzys_wokół_Sądu_Najwyższego_w_Polsce
Święczkowski here:
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sledztwo-w-sprawie-zamachu-stanu-prokurator-komentuje-nie-mial-prawa/j8fnwt1
This is the seventh "coup" created merely by PiS media since 2015.
civic wasp
The Sejm has voted yes for lifting the Parliamentary immunity of former MoJ Zbigniew Ziobro and imposing a 30-day arrest in order to deliver him to the Parliamentary investigative commission on Pegasus spyware.
This is due to Ziobro not attending the seatings for 5 times including when there was a warrant on him 2 weeks ago.
Expect to hear about political repressions in Poland and Musk retweeting it
brittle hamlet
In all honesty its been relatively tame so far
They didnt really pick up the whole coup thing besides some fringe figures
civic wasp
Wow. It turns out that PiS' prosecutor's office was using Hermes software to invigilate journalists from OKO.press, TVN, Onet, Gazeta Wyborcza and RMF FM Radio.
civic wasp
Former PM Mateusz Morawiecki is officially charged for organizing the 2020 failed presidential elections.
The presidential elections were to be held in May 2020. Due to the pandemic which in Polish case began in late March, there was a debate whether they shall be rescheduled. Even some members of PiS' coaliton opposed organizing them in May. Morawiecki, deputy PM Sasin and several other top PiS politicians pushed for the May elections, calculating that the result is more predictible and better for them. They tried to organize mailing elections. But as they were short on time, it was being done chaotically and was violating the law. Eventually it turned out that the Prime Minister knowingly and intentionally ordered to organize the election without any legal basis.
The Post Office even printed millions of ballots which costed some 200 million zlotys (some 45 mln euro) but the election eventually... was moved to July.
Now Morawiecki is finally getting charged. He refused to testify and says that he'd do it again.
robust remnant
This is different one.
In Poland, for technical reasons, legal gender marker change for trans people required suing your parents.
Zbigniew Ziobro of previous gov tried to take even that away from trans people.
It reached Supreme Court now, and was met with not just decline, but also resolution that this process should be just administrative, completely unrelated to third persons.
Process got simplified from absurd and traumatic to... just a formality.
Notes:
- catholic-fascist-homophobe mr Ziobro became greatest accidental trans ally
- Non-binary and alike persons are still not recognised nor respected by Polish law
- no same sex mariage still, and still need divorce bedore gender marker change (so no breaking of hetero-only marriage rule)
- "will go into effect once validated" - should mean weeks.
- small update: since Supreme Court isn't very legitimate, lawyers argue whenever the ruling is of any use and it is expected courts and beuraus will respect it or not individually
civic wasp
It is really funny that Ziobro wanted to make things worse and more difficult and ended up being the one making them easier
In case anybody is interested in Polish gov take on the current geopolitical situation regarding Ukraine, USA, defence budgets and new security architecture in Europe, one should watch this speech by PM Donald Tusk.
https://www.youtube.com/live/5FdZFtGeNdY?si=WwyfQrrC31NEzy38
civic wasp
Last Wednesday the prosecutor's office questioned a certain Barbara Skrzypek, Kaczynski's longtime assistant, member of Srebrna company which is basically an economical core of PiS.
She reportedly testified against Kaczyński, saying that a couple of years ago he basically falsified her signature in order to run a board meeting.
Yesterday Barbara Skrzypek died. PiS now says that it's because of the interrogation which took place 3 days earlier.
Fun fact: Kaczyński "inherited" her in 1990 from the communist Presidential Chancellery. Prior to that, she worked for 9 years in the secret office in the commie prime minister office, under 4 commie prime ministers. She was a protege of general Janiszewski, head of the intelligence.
civic wasp
Little update: it turns out that the interrogation was held without her lawyer in the room and it hasn't been recorded. This is deeply troubling.
civic wasp
The prosecutor's office has published the protocol of this interrogation
https://x.com/Prok_Okreg_Wawa/status/1902004501101367778
X
civic wasp
This article sums it up pretty well with timeline:
https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/polityka/smierc-barbary-skrzypek-jak-zbudowano-przekaz-pierwsza-ofiara-rezimu-st8352348
Despite obviously troubling behaviour, PiS' narrative is pure nonsense and a disgusting one
sinful rain
The presidential election in Poland, scheduled for May 2025, has 13 registered https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/pl/kandydaci?initscroll=384 candidates. To run, candidates must collect 100,000 signatures, but the process has flaws, as people can sign multiple lists using just their PESEL number, name, and surname. This makes it easy to manipulate the signatures.
Rafał Trzaskowski, leader in the polls, represents Platforma Obywatelska, the current governing party. His main opponent is Kalor Nawrocki, an independent supported by PiS. The other candidates have less significance, though some polls are surprising.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-przedziwny-wieczor-w-konskich-od-30-lat-czegos-takiego-nie-w,nId,21395322
A long-standing issue in Poland is the difficulty in organizing the presidential debate. With 13 candidates, it is challenging to manage media coverage, as different media outlets support different factions.
Under media and public pressure, the format of the debate was changed to include all candidates. This was necessary, as public television, one of the debate organizers, is obligated to include all candidates. Trzaskowski's team tried to downplay this, claiming the debate was always intended to include many candidates. They invited a fringe candidate, who had likely exploited a loophole to register, benefiting from the flawed signature verification system. This individual is known for promoting Russian propaganda and is supported by a KGB double agent, Szmuda, who fled to Belarus.
https://x.com/DominikSerwacki/status/1910846029940896085 / https://www.facebook.com/PutinowaPolska/posts/pfbid02ucDcExcEEEXXC4hhUUHjrrguqArJFwcRGDVJuv4itSzZNGQpyxwZEf3d9uesHFBJl
This situation exposes two major flaws in Poland’s political system: the weak verification of presidential candidates and the irresponsibility of politicians, like Trzaskowski’s campaign team, who provided a platform for questionable candidates.
X
civic wasp
And if anyone is interested in this proRussian Maciej Maciak guy, DM me, I've wrote a whole piece on this piece of...
civic wasp
Meanwhile. MEP Grzegorz Braun, the crazy, prorussian conspiracy theorist who's also running for presidency now, stormed the hostpital in the city of Oleśnica with a group of men and physically assaulted a ginecologist Gizela Jagielska, one of the very few doctors in Poland who perform legal abortions. Braun and his men kept her in her office for over an hour, claiming that they're performing a citizen arrest. Police didn't do much, since Braun has an immunity.
This is clearly an attempt to terrorize those who perform abortions
robust remnant
Meanwhile. MEP Grzegorz Braun, the crazy, prorussian conspiracy theorist who's a...
If he retains immunity after that, I'll have even less respect for the gov we have but need.
elfin bay
If he retains immunity after that, I'll have even less respect for the gov we ha...
erm
his immunity back when he was Polish MP was removed
but then he became MEP
robust remnant
Thanks a lot!
civic wasp
Marcin Romanowski, ex vice minister who fled to Hungary to lead the Polish Freedom Institute, created by Center for Fundamental Rights. Will be researching "fascism of the government in Warsaw"
civic wasp
Presidential polls 2 weeks prior the election. Unless anybody gets above 50% there is a second round between top two candidates. All numbers are based on avaraged polls, available on ewybory.eu.
Rafał Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw, vice-chair of liberal KO (Tusk's party): 32%, slightly falling.
Karol Nawrocki, "independent candidate", supported by populist right PiS (Kaczyński's party): 25%, slighlty rising
Sławomir Mentzen, leader of Konfederacja: 12% and visibly decreasing
Szymon Hołownia, speaker of lower chamber of the Parliament, leader of his own party: 7% and stable
Magdalena Biejat, from The New Left (until recently a co-leader of Razem): 5% and sligtly growing
Adrian Zandberg, current leader of Razem: 5% and growing
Grzegorz Braun, ultra-right, prorussian conspiracy theorist: 3%, stable
Krzysztof Stanowski, businessman and media owner, 1,8%, stable
Marek Jakubiak, far right Republican Party: 1,4%, as always
Joanna Senyszyn, old post-commie guard, currently having her tiny moment: 1%
Unless something extraordinary happens, Mentzen won't surpass Nawrocki and get to the second round. According to the polls, Trzaskowski will win the second round 51 to 41.
Of course the real battle will happen between May 18th and June 1st, when the two leading candidates will fight for other electorates. Since now my assessment is that everyone is trying to steal some conservative votes which leads to surprising growth of Biejat and Zandberg, who together may jump over 10%, which didn't seem plausible just two months ago.
Data: https://ewybory.eu/wybory-prezydenckie-2025-polska/sondaze-prezydenckie-2-tura/
There are couple of other candidates too (we've got the all time record of 13 people running) but they will be marginal.
robust remnant
lilac sphinx
Presidential polls 2 weeks prior the election. Unless anybody gets above 50% the...
"Magdalena Biejat, from The New Left (until recently a co-leader of Razem): 5% and sligtly growing
Adrian Zandberg, current leader of Razem: 5% and growing" -- this is wild, so putting it together a single Razem's candidate could have about 10%?
robust remnant
Assuming it would go like that, fascinating.
civic wasp
It surely indicates that the lefty electorate is capable of grabbing 10%, yes. This didn't seem possible but apparently it is. Personally, I blame Trzaskowski's right turn in this campaign.
still anchor
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-immunitet-grzegorza-brauna-parlament-europejski-zaglosowal,nId,21399171 braun got his immunity revoked
elfin bay
TAK KURWA JAZDA ZE ŚMIECIEM~this is a very important decision which may have a positive impact, although may be troubling to enact until 1st round of elections finishes
robust remnant
Yes, if he is even charged ASAP, it shouldn't affect his right to remaim a presidental candidate, right? He'd need to be sentenced guilty. Not within this timeframe.
-# further maybe it would be better for him to remain a candidate, his few percent is votes not going to Mentzen most likely.
still anchor
yeah they would have to do it in electoral mode (tryb wyborczy)
so prolly gonna wait
civic wasp
Warsaw University declared a day of grief after a 22 year old attacker murdered an employee and almost murdered one of the guards with an axe. There's a lot of disinformation about him being Ukrainian but his true identity is all over Twitter, as well as horrifying footage, documenting his crime. I won't provide any link nor will I describe in detail what he did, since it's highly sensitive and brutal content
civic wasp
Sławomir Mentzen, leader of far right Konfederacja party and currently a third-place runner for presidency, claims that he is being threatened by Ukrainians and provides a video as proof.
This is highly suspicious, especially now. These Ukrainians say that they will not tolerate him as the president. The thing is that the days when Mentzen was rising in the polls are long gone. Now his average poll support doesn't exceed 12-13% and he's a solid 10% behind PiS' Karol Nawrocki and another 10% behind KO's Rafał Trzaskowski. There is little to no chance that Mentzen will get to the second round.
civic wasp
Some strange cyber attack on websites of KO and PSL (both in the ruling coalition) happened today
https://x.com/9groszy/status/1923409366310584457?t=IbhN5H8HQdmQuih-nTYrOg&s=19
X
Claimed by NoName allegedly
civic wasp
And you probably should read about this unethical web campaign for Trzaskowski, performed, at least partially, by a pro democratic NGO that went pro-KO.
robust remnant
A good and important read. Thank you
civic wasp
Turnout at 5PM higher than in 2020, even though it was lower in the morning (probably due to crappy weather). It's possible were going for the record here.
civic wasp
Exit poll according to IPSOS. If this turns out to be true, we've got some serious things here
-
The difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki is embarrassingly low
-
Mentzen way above average polls from last weeks
-
Braun with 6% is literally a huge WTF, polls were giving him 2
-
Mentzen and Braun together have 21% which is an embarrassment to us as a nation
-
The left (Zandberg and Biejat) together above 9% which is the best result the left had in years
-
Hołownia was supposed to be 3rd and ends up 6th which is probably a signal that his party is going down with him
elfin bay
What is with the polls, eh
robust remnant
Point 4 alone makes me reevaluate my plans as a rather easily targettable minority which neither of these persons nor their voter base like having around. Because sure, neither of these candidates will enter second turn of elections, but if, turnout aside, every fifth Polish person has alt-right/nazi adjacent views... I think people like me should be extra careful.
pliant depot
Point 4 alone makes me reevaluate my plans as a rather easily targettable minori...
I would check the geographic vote distributions, because they probably vary.
E.g. in Germany all the large amount of AFD votes are centered in the ex-Soviet areas and it would probably not be safe to visit there. But in the North-West of Germany the numbers are pretty low and in Hamburg they are tiny.
lilac sphinx
Exit poll according to IPSOS. If this turns out to be true, we've got some serio...
"The left (Zandberg and Biejat) together above 9% which is the best result the left had in years" -- add Senyszyn to that and you're over 10% 🙂
civic wasp
Final results
Konfederacja gets 21% (Mentzen + Braun).
The left 10% (Zandberg + Biejat + Senyszyn)
Meanwhile, about a dozen of The Last Generation (Ostatnie Pokolenie) environmental activists seem to have entered Trzaskowski's office, beginning its occupation. They demand to fulfill their transportation postulates and a talk with PM Tusk.
Quick reminder about the second round.
-
We may expect Hołownia to support Trzaskowski.
-
We may expect Biejat to support Trzaskowski.
-
It's hard to expect what will Zandberg do. It seems highely unlikely that he'll support PiS' Nawrocki, but Razemites don't like liberal Trzaskowski too much.
-
We may expect both Konfederacja candidates (Mentzen and Braun) to support Nawrocki.
-
The plankton candidates are also predominantly fari right (Bartoszewicz, Stanowski and Jakubiak) and they got 2,5% in total.
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During the upcoming two weeks we'll see both candidates fight for other electorates. Since the left electorate is roughly 10% and far right around 22%, we may expect them to adress this electorate. My opinion is that adressing Konfa electorate is exactly what led Trzaskowski to this low result.
pliant depot
Results in 18-29 age group 😬
Is this a mixed gender distribution? Are there per gender distributions? (Wondering because we have seen quite the split in other countries)
(also are the statistics correct? (Sample of at least 1000 people and even gender numbers and a mix of rural and city people?))
(Without proper statistics, people can and do lie with numbers, while making it look scientific. I am a scientist so it is a sore point for me)
robust remnant
Ye, would be nice to get source here for further reading
lilac sphinx
civic wasp
Yes, that was from oko.press
brittle hamlet
Is this a mixed gender distribution? Are there per gender distributions? (Wonder...
pliant depot
https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/09/25/left-and-far-right-fight-over-polands-dis...
Thank you
brittle hamlet
Thank you
https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/02/dont-go-to-bed-with-men-who-vote-far-right-left-wing-leader-tells-women/
Actually this was the article I was thinking of
civic wasp
Candidates and their support before the second round
- Sławomir Mentzen - Konfederacja, 14% - invites Trzaskowski and Nawrocki to his YT channel to convince him to support them.
- Szymon Hołownia - Sejm Speaker, 5% - supports Trzaskowski
- Magdalena Biejat - The New Left, 4% - supports Trzaskowski
- Adrian Zandberg - Razem, 5% - says he won't support anybody
- Grzegorz Braun - far right, 6% - publishes a list of questions (like, will you fight for Polish case) and waits
Pretty much as expected.
civic wasp
Meanwhile, I forgot to post this. Mentzen's party didn't produce its financial report on time and now, legally, National Electoral Comission should ask the court to cross them out of the Parties Records. If this happens, Konfederacja will surely yell about censorship.
civic wasp
Update on the pro-KO ad campaign that took place on Facebook before the first round of the election. Apparently Meta doesn't seem to care about it at all
robust remnant
Interesting diagram, thank you
lilac sphinx
I did not have Nawrocki getting owned by Mentzen on my bingo card.
civic wasp
Sławomir Mentzen, leader of Konfederacja who came third in the presidential election, published a list of 8 postulates, demanding both second round candidates to sign. Today Karol Nawrocki (PiS) signed them all.
Among them we'll find a veto for Ukraine in NATO, veto for Polish troops in Ukraine (doesn't specify when, so probably: ever), veto for any EU policies restricting Polish sovereignty.
civic wasp
Yesterday Rafał Trzaskowski also visited Mentzen at his yt channel. Trzaskowski kinda agreed on 4 terms out of 8, but refused to sign any declaration. Fortunately he didn't get vassalized by Mentzen, fought back and defended his case, even though he didn't answer some of the questions.
After this, Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorskk (MFA, KO's candidate for presidency who lost the primaries to Trzaskowski in December) showed up in Mentzen's pub with Mentzen himself. All 3 had a nice chat.
This is considered a betrayal to a lot of Konfederacja people. Konfie co-leader and some of the top tier members are criticizing Mentzen badly. There are some talks about a potential split (doubt that) and internal electorate flow from Mentzen's conservative libertarians towards Bosak's nationalists (likely) and Braun's crusaders (very likely).
civic wasp
Ya'll migh've heard that Nawrocki (PiS' candidate) took coke live, during the debate. This was not coke but snus, a tobacco-like drug. Still funny and embarrassing, but not coke. It also turns out that he's done this before during interviews and previous debates, but nobody noticed.
robust remnant
Snus has a lot of nicotine, making it highly addictive and esspecially so vilified at schools.
It was indeed hilarious to find out and see him trying to turn it into some "transparency about candidate's health"
elfin bay
still, a few stressful days ahead
slate wagon
Ya'll migh've heard that Nawrocki (PiS' candidate) took coke live, during the de...
I'm pretty sure snus is illegal too.
robust remnant
I'm pretty sure snus is illegal too.
For some reason it is legal (as long as has no tabacco, just nicotine) for adults here.
slate wagon
Ah, in my head snus always had tobacco.
robust remnant
It does not have to, can be just... some filler soaked with nicotine I think.
Why is that legal out of all things, I have no idea.
civic wasp
There are basically two versions of it. He used the one that is legal here apparently
elfin bay
paywalled, fresh news piece about Nawrocki being responsible for bringing call girls to a hotel back when he was a security guy
civic wasp
Damn, why is this paywalled.
I'm gonna paste the important part
"When working on this text, we didn't have any thesis - we wanted to check the rumors about Nawrocki, to be able to confirm or deny them. We talked to dozens of people who knew Nawrocki at the time, worked at the Grand Hotel, were Sopot policemen or moved in the Tri-City underworld. Many had heard pimping rumors about Nawrocki, many said that everyone who worked in Grand's security - at the best gate in Poland - "had" to cooperate with pimps. However, this is not enough to formulate unequivocal judgments."
"The story of the second witness, who asked me to withhold any details that could lead to revealing his identity: — One day I was assigned to a shift at the reception desk. There was usually a security guard standing next to the receptionists. Suddenly I saw Karol enter the hotel with a prostitute and her "guardian". They got into the elevator and went upstairs to the guest. It was a shock for me.
Another story from a friend from college: — I had at least one such situation when a guest needed a prostitute. Karol wasn't there at the time, so I called [here is the name of another colleague Nawrocki - editor's note]. Another time Karol was supposed to relieve me during a shift outside the hotel. I got a call that Karol had a case and couldn't relieve me. When we were going out in the evening after work, he gave me, I think, 100 PLN. He said it was my share.
The second witness: — Karol suggested that I join this group that deals with bringing in prostitutes. He offered to share the money with me. He got a firm refusal and in harsh words. That was unacceptable to me."
I saw prostitutes coming to the hotel – it was hard not to notice. I guessed they had some kind of arrangement with the security, but I wasn't interested in it – he says.
"Once, during the evening shift, Karol asked me if I wanted to earn some extra money, because he and a group of security guards [here our interlocutor names them – editor's note] were making money by providing prostitutes to hotel guests. My role was to tell Karol or [here our interlocutor names another colleague, Nawrocki – editor's note] if a guest asked me where to meet girls. I was to let him know. I wouldn't say I was upset – I'm not a hypocrite. I said: "OK, Karol. If that's how it is." Then Karol boasted to me that he was the one who co-created this network," he adds.
and the last one:
Our interviewees describe the mechanism. Hotel guests would choose prostitutes from social media sites such as the now defunct Odloty.pl – they were encouraged to do so by security guards, who would show them offers on a computer in a public room with computers for hotel guests opposite the reception. Nawrocki or one of his men would then call the “coordinator” who would bring the women to the hotel.
Our interviewees say that the price of a meeting with a prostitute at Odloty at that time was an average of PLN 100-150, with a maximum of PLN 200. Hotel security dictated much higher prices to guests – anything above that amount was the profit of the security guards, who were in an arrangement with the pimp.
The arrangement between the pimp and the security was essential – without it, the prostitutes would not have been allowed into the hotel.
elfin bay
Nawrocki announced he is suing in civil mode, which is slower than election mode.
civic wasp
Electoral mode takes 24-48 hours. Civil will go on for months.
My take is that he'll never sue
civic wasp
I was at CPAC Poland yesterday, I will write more about this shortly. Nawrocki got full endorsement from Americans, Konfederacja a d Georg Simion.
From other news: ABW k formed that in 2021 Nawrocki got security clearances from a then-head of the Agency, despite this being NOT recommended by its officers
civic wasp
Mentzrn ruled out voting for Trzaskowski. Of course he did, his party mentor supported Nawrocki at yesterday's CPAC
civic wasp
Grzegorz Braun, to no surprise, supported Nawrocki. Braun claims that PiS promised to pardon him in case he gets sentenced in one of his trials.
X
civic wasp
Potential attempt to both supress voters and steal their personal data. A group of activists tightly connected with one of the main parties (until 9 PM I can't tell which one but you probably guessed it right) and prorussian micro parties as well, has come up with an uncredited app, which is supposed to "help verify votes" for the local commissions.
This app is illegal since it's not approved by the National Electoral Commission.
Results:
- A lot of fuss on Twitter suggesting that there is a massive electoral fraud
- Claims that said activists are somehow saving the elections
- Probably some people using the app and feeding it with personal data
elfin bay
To clarify: when you travel, you can get a voting rights certificate to use at any voting station you can. Once you get your polling card, you turn in the certificate.
The app is supposed to check whether the certificate hasnt been already used, but that's unofficial app with pis poor processing.
civic wasp
Well, if Ziobro is promoting it than I am allowed to share it, right
This is former MoJ advertising an unsecure app created by his friends z registered in Hungary, in order to suppress voting
civic wasp
IPSOS exit poll
Trzaskowski 50.3
Nawrocki 49.7
slate wagon
So close... 😰
civic wasp
Exit Poll OGB
Trzaskowski 50.17%
Nawrocki 49.83%
robust remnant
Trzaskowski and team already celebrating. Exit polls that show if is 50/50 essentially.
civic wasp
Late poll should be published around 11 pm
elfin bay
I mean the polls dont count foreign votes, dont they?
That is those from Poles not in country
civic wasp
To clarify: when you travel, you can get a voting rights certificate to use at a...
Wyborcza journalists proved that this is highly invalid. You may make up the card number and type any phone number and said card is already marked red. So someone with a database of phone numbers could block hundreds of thousands of people and then yell about fraud.
Luckily, the public reacted quickly and nobody is taking this app seriously. But the mere fact that PiS did this is horrible
civic wasp
I mean the polls dont count foreign votes, dont they?
Afaik yes. And 5 years ago Trzaskowski got some 70% abroad.
elfin bay
So that's 1.5percent points or sth if my napkin map is right
civic wasp
Remember that exit poll error is around 2%
May I also remind you that the elections are confirmed or not by an illegal PiS-created chamber of the Supreme Court?
Full of PiS nominees
elfin bay
Oh cool a civil war ;-;
elfin bay
Late Poll flipped
50.7 Nawrocki
49.3 Trzaskowski
elfin bay
we shall see, it would be funny if Ipsos had selected wrong methodology and/or wrong electoral comissions
but OKO press stream I watch is pretty bleak rn
lilac sphinx
civic wasp
According to IPSOS exit poll, 92% of Braun's voters and 88% of Mentzen's voters voted for Nawrocki
Final turnout 71.6%
tidal bane
Sorry Poland
robust remnant
Forgive me for posting a meme, but I have no other words really.
civic wasp
Tusk is to announce something at 8 PM. There is said to be a deep reconstruction in the gov and public tv. Rumour says he's gonna resign but I don't believe it.
civic wasp
He announced he'll ask the Parliament for a vote of confidence. Unless PSL is stabbing the coalition in the back, this is just a formality.
civic wasp
Look at this. The strongest single indicator was... catholicism.
You may not be aware of that but in Poland we barely have any discussion about faith and religion in public life. Events like Richard Dawkins debating the Canterbury bishop are unimaginable here. And then, time after time, it turns out that the most important division is aligned with the religious one.
In 2021's census 70% of Poles declared themselves catholics which was significantly lower that decade earlier. The trend is towards secularism but, as seen today, faith still affects voting results.
On the chart: X axis represents percentage of people declaring themselves as catholics in set municipality. Y axis represents Nawrocki's result in second round.
lilac sphinx
Pasting just the chart here:
robust remnant
Reminds of all the priest openly supports Nawrocki, demonizes Trzaskowski articles
Oh and the prize for punch your opponent priest.
lilac sphinx
slate wagon
https://frontstory.pl/gru-szpiegostwo-biznes-abw/
Hi, since the common language here is English, can you add a couple of sentences explaining what this is about?
Also, I'm not sure if this fits in a thread about politics of Poland. #eu-uk would be my first choice.
lilac sphinx
Sorry, yes: the (machine)translation is quite good https://frontstory-pl.translate.goog/gru-szpiegostwo-biznes-abw/?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp
lilac sphinx
This is quite fun to read https://www.reddit.com/r/poland/comments/1l6ymem/analysis_of_alleged_voting_irregularities/ but the main problem still remains: the Polish electoral system is oblivious to such mistakes. It can't detect them as it is now.
civic wasp
Today the Sejm will hold a vote of confidence for Tusk's government. There is a lot of tension.
robust remnant
Vote of confidence passed positively. Nothing interesting happened.
civic wasp
I couldn't follow this closely today, but people are saying that Tusk lost his temper?
robust remnant
No idea, only checked the counts
civic wasp
Grzegorz Braun destroyed some LGBT art in Sejm. The guard was literally just watching this.
civic wasp
Meanwhile a certain 28 year old Wiktor Ż. Is accused of spying for Russia. His social media are so full of Braun
civic wasp
TV Republika published some recorded phone conversations between Donald Tusk and Roman Giertych. Giertych, politician and an attorney, flocked to KO from the far right, now he's a KO MP and very active in social media. The thing is that this recording is from 2019 when Giertych was being constantly attacked by Pegasus and was representing Tusk (then the Council of Europe President) legally. It seems clear that these conversations were obtained that way. Which is even more scandalic, since the Anticorruption Bureau (CBA) claimed that anything that doesn't include terrorism or organized crime is supposed to be deleted. Apparently it wasn't.
https://biznesalert.pl/czy-afera-tasmowa-ujawniona-przez-tv-republika-spowoduje-upadek-rzadu/
civic wasp
There are some serious GPS interferences in northern Poland for couple of days now. There are a lot of reports of civilian drones falling off from the sky or breaking out of control and flying behind the horizon. Just today a flight from Alicante couldn't land in Bydgoszcz and had to be rescheduled to Poznań instead.
https://bydgoszcz.wyborcza.pl/bydgoszcz/7,48722,32026982,niespokojny-final-lotu-z-alicante-do-bydgoszczy-samolot-nie.html
civic wasp
Turns out that other recordings released by TV Republika were actually simply downloaded from Roman Giertych's YT channel. They literally downloaded his movies, added some white noise in the background and presented this as a great reveal. Even a lot of PiS' influencers are laughing at these morons publicly
civic wasp
But nonetheless other recordings clearly have Pegasus origins
civic wasp
Meanwhile, Trzecia Droga (Third Way), which came in... Third in the 2023 election and is a part of the coalition, is falling apart.
TD is actually a coalition of the oldest Polish party PSL (formally people's party, nowadays simply neoliberal conservatives) and relatively new Poland2050 (progressive centrists I guess).
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, deputy PM and MoD and PSL leader now says that his party will run separately in the next parliamentary election.
TD got 14% of votes in 2023. Since then it's been falling and falling and now polls give them 5-6%, and that's before the split.
Imho this is the first step on the road to PiS-Konfederacja-PSL coalition
civic wasp
Two deputy ministers leave office.
Michał Kołodziejczak, deputy minister of agriculture was taken on board for strictly arithmetic purposes. Couple of years ago he launched his own political movement unionizing farmers (AgroUnia), but soon lost his charm and was balancing on 1% of support in the polls. Nobody really knows what was he doing for the last 18 months.
Second person is Joanna Mucha, deputy minister of education. Mucha used to be in KO (Tusk's party) but migrated to Polska 2050 (Sejm speaker Szymon Hołownia's party, until last week part of the Third Way). After the presidential election Mucha published a statement that went viral on Facebook. She accused KO's campaign of blindness and stupidity, pointed out that their experts were willy-nilly ignoring electoral reports, because they were 100% sure that Trzaskowski will win. On top of that, she now revealed that the government is pulling back from educational programme called "School for all" which was meant to integrate kids from Ukraine. MoE Barbara Nowak (KO) claims that the programme will be re-thought but this is probably damage control, since wide social consultations were going on for well over a year. It seems unlikely that it will be proceded this September.
We're still waiting for Tusk's deep reconstruction of the government, which was promised after the election.
lilac sphinx
civic wasp
Meanwhile, the narrative about Germans secretly flooding us with illegal immigrants is hitting the roof again. This led to "citizen patrols" blocking the border crossings from these alleged actions. PiS and Konfederacja's politicians show this as proof that Poles have had enough. Here Konrad Berkowicz, important Konfie.
civic wasp
Wow, I just found out that Blanka Bąkiewicz, daughter of Robert Bąkiewicz, the far right founder of Independence March (with several NGOses) and now a chief advocate for "civic patrols" who are "guarding" our border with Germany, so that young woman is a coordinator of CitizenGo Poland.
https://x.com/BlankaBakiewicz
X
civic wasp
Meanwhile Tusk is temporarily restoring controls on the border with Germany.
These "patrols" and the right supporting them is getting out of hand
lilac sphinx
brittle hamlet
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/25/polish-veto-risks-ukraines-crucial-starlink-access-amid-refugee-aid-row
Polish president Nawrocki is going to be bullying the government, but really Ukrainians, to get the bills he wants passed
civic wasp
Ok, so I'm back, after some family issues and temporarily forgetting my discord password.
The prosecutors office presses 26 charges against the former MoJ Zbigniew Ziobro. Sejm is about to vote on lifting his immunity. meanwhile, Ziobro has already found himself in Budapest.
On charges:
https://oko.press/26-zarzutow-dla-ziobry-i-wniosek-o-jego-aresztowanie-trafil-do-sejmu
Ziobro in Budapest:
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/zbigniew-ziobro-w-budapeszcie-uderza-w-donalda-tuska-sterowany-z-berlina/n51lvtb
lilac sphinx
First (that I'm aware of) deportation of Polish family member to Poland: https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2025/11/05/michigan-family-fought-to-stop-moms-sudden-deportation-after-20-years-she-had-to-leave/
civic wasp
The Sejm's Rules, Deputies' Affairs, and Immunities Committee has issued a positive opinion on the waiver of immunity for Zbigniew Ziobro, who is currently residing in Hungary. The case sparked a wave of online commentary. "Will there be a conference in Budapest?" asked MEP Kamila Gasiuk-Pihowicz. Jarosław Kaczyński, in turn, said that "the allegations are made in a hazy way."
civic wasp
The majority has voted 27 times yes to lift Ziobro's immunity on all of his 27 charges. Afaik he's in Hungary and will probably apply for asylum.
civic wasp
"For the next five years, no judge who questions the president's constitutional powers, the Polish constitution, or the Polish legal system can expect to be appointed or promoted, Karol Nawrocki announced. The president rejected the nominations of 46 judges."
Since 2018 PiS judiciary bills, technically all judges in Poland are improperly appointed.
Meanwhile the most left party in Sejm, the Razem (Together) party has finally kicked out their troubling MP Paulina Matysiak. Matysiak has been slowly but steadily moving towards the right for over a year now. Just couple of weeks ago she was represented at court by an Ordo Iuris lawyer
lilac sphinx
https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2025-11-16/ujawnione-e-maile-epsteina-pisal-o-katastrofie-smolenskiej-i-tusku/ One of today's top news in Poland: "Jeffrey Epstein criticized conspiracy theories regarding the Smoleńsk catastrophe, according to one of the revealed emails. "They are an aberration and an insult to the memory of the victims of the catastrophe." The billionaire described himself as Polish in the correspondence. Among over 20,000 documents received from the lawyers of the late billionaire Jeffrey Epstein and published this week by the House Oversight Committee, there is an email from April 2014 in which he comments on Polish politics and theories surrounding the Smolensk catastrophe. "These conspiracy theories are an aberration and an insult to the memory of the victims of the catastrophe, including the late president himself. As a Pole who at least somewhat knows Polish politics and economy, and also a journalist who daily follows world politics and events, I am deeply disappointed by the number of people who cling to these conspiracy theories, and scientists and professionals who propagate such ideas should be ashamed," he wrote in an email to a woman with a Polish-sounding surname. Epstein argued in the message that there is no evidence that Russia was responsible for the death of Lech Kaczyński and the passengers of the flight to Smolensk and would not have benefited from it, while the negative consequences for Russia would have been significant. (...) The revealed email is probably the first in which Epstein seems to admit to Polish roots. According to the genealogical portal Ancestry.com database, Epstein's grandparents on both sides were Jews, originating from the territories of the Russian partition, from today's Lithuania, Belarus, and Poland. Epstein's paternal grandfather, Julius Epstein, was born in Białystok."
civic wasp
Two incidents with damaged railways on route number 7 (from Warsaw towards Ukraine). Looks like sabotage. A whole lot of anti Ukrainian disinformation flooding our SM
"Prime Minister Donald Tusk officially confirmed that an act of sabotage had occurred near the village of Mika – a railway track was destroyed by an explosive device. Further infrastructure damage was reported on the same route, and a Świnoujście-Rzeszów train carrying 475 passengers made an emergency stop between the Puławy Azoty and Puławy Chemia stations. Fortunately, no one was injured, but a metal element attached to the tracks and an ICT device not belonging to the railway infrastructure were discovered at the scene. These are no longer abstract "railway incidents," but the materialization of a classic act of sabotage aimed at national security."
Source
https://infosecurity24.pl/bezpieczenstwo-wewnetrzne/dywersja-jako-narzedzie-presji-kremla-opinia
civic wasp
Prime Minister Tusk said that the services' findings indicate that the sabotage was carried out by "two Ukrainian citizens operating and cooperating with Russian services for a long time." He added that "their identities have been established" but would not disclose them at this time because "further operations are underway." The Prime Minister provided further details about the suspects. One of them was convicted in May by a court in Lviv for acts of sabotage in Ukraine, while the other is a resident of Donbas in eastern Ukraine. Both entered Poland from Belarus this fall.
"After committing the sabotage in Mika, these individuals left Poland through the border crossing in Terespol. This was immediately after the attack, so they had not yet been identified by the services. The Polish services and the prosecutor's office have all the information about these individuals and their recorded images," Tusk said.
lilac sphinx
https://oko.press/skandaliczny-rosyjski-wyklad-polska-jako-panstwo-nazistow-i-rusofobow "Scandalous Russian lecture in Warsaw. Poland as a state of Nazis and Russophobes
On December 4th, at the Russian RONiK center in Warsaw, Yevgeny Tkachev gave a propaganda lecture attacking Poland and glorifying Russia. He argued that Russia is today the "guarantor of Polish borders," that pre-war Poland was Nazi, and that the current one practices "systemic Russophobia."" -- they used similar rhetoric before invasion on Ukraine
rugged edge
https://oko.press/skandaliczny-rosyjski-wyklad-polska-jako-panstwo-nazistow-i-ru...
Good to know. Thank you for this information. Russians are good for faking history and many people believe them.
lilac sphinx
https://polskieradio24.pl/artykul/3618944,trump-chce-odciagnac-polske-od-ue-ujawniono-tajny-dokument "Trump wants to "pull" Poland away from the EU. Secret document revealed
The American portal Defence One has revealed the contents of the full, unpublished version of the US National Security Strategy. According to the document, the Trump administration would support pulling Poland away from the European Union."
I think this is the source https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/12/make-europe-great-again-and-more-longer-version-national-security-strategy/410038/
Looks like full USA-Russia alignment.
civic wasp
Jacek Dobrzyński, spokesman of the Polish Minister Coordinator of Special Services:
"Internal Security Agency (ABW) officers detained Mateusz W., a student at the Catholic University of Lublin, suspected of planning a mass attack at a Christmas market, which he planned to carry out using explosives. Previously, the man had been learning how to make his own materials to carry out a terrorist act. He also planned to join a terrorist organization to obtain assistance in carrying out his intended activities. The aim of the crime was to intimidate many people and support the Islamic State.
During the operation, ABW officers seized data storage devices and items related to Islam. By court order, the man will spend the next three months in custody. The Szczecin branch of the ABW is conducting an investigation under the supervision of the Szczecin branch of the @PK_GOV_PL. The case is ongoing."
This is what we know so far.
Source: https://x.com/JacekDobrzynski/status/2000838941314781210
lilac sphinx
Some good news for once: https://translate.kagi.com/en_gb/www.rynekzdrowia.pl/Serwis-Szczepienia/GIS-po-kontroli-7-3-mln-kart-propaganda-antyszczepionkowa-to-mit,280282,1018.html "The Chief Sanitary Inspector, Paweł Grzesiowski, has completed the largest analysis of children's vaccination records in Poland's history. After checking over 7.3 million documents, the CSI confirms: the vaccination rate remains high and stable, and the narrative of a mass abandonment of vaccinations is not supported by the data. (...) Paweł Grzesiowski stated that based on the first part of the record checks, it can be concluded that vaccinations in the first five years of a child's life are at a very high level.
- Virtually all mandatory vaccinations are carried out at a level of 89-95 per cent. This is the national average - he pointed out. - It turns out that approximately about 5-10 per cent children in Poland are not vaccinated from each age group, some of whom for medical reasons. We initially estimate that about 4-5 per cent are not vaccinated due to a lack of parental consent - he emphasised.
"
lilac sphinx
Some important defence news:
"Two new defense treaties
As "Gazeta Wyborcza" learned from government circles, a treaty similar to the Polish-French one, linking Poland and Great Britain, is likely to be signed as early as February. In June, on the other hand, a new treaty is to be signed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Both agreements will be of a defensive nature.
As the newspaper reminds, the Polish-French treaty contains a clause stating that "in the event of an armed attack on their territory, the Parties shall provide each other with assistance, including through the use of military means." It was also indicated that "assistance and support will be implemented in accordance with the obligations arising from Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 42, paragraph 7 of the Treaty on European Union."
The new treaty with Germany is intended not only to strengthen cooperation in the field of defense, but also to tighten relations between the defense industries of both countries. "In this way, NATO within NATO is being created. Just in case," says a European diplomat in an interview with "GW.""
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/polska-zawrze-dwa-nowe-sojusze-wzmacniamy-nato-od-srodka/4cpcnyp
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,32536062,polska-zawrze-nowe-sojusze-powstaje-nato-w-nato-na-wszelki.html
lilac sphinx
https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-ex-president-lands-role-us-project-2025-think-tank-andrzej-duda/ of course he does.
lilac sphinx
civic wasp
Counterintelligence has detained a 60-year old employee of the Ministry of National Defence, who allegedly worked with Russian and Belarussian intelligence.
https://polskieradio24.pl/artykul/3642672,zatrzymanie-w-mon-media-urzednik-mial-szpiegowac-dla-rosji
he was working in the MoD since 90s
lilac sphinx
https://translate.kagi.com/www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/ambasador-usa-w-polsce-nie-bedziemy-juz-utrzymywac-kontaktow-z-marszalkiem-sejmu " US Ambassador to Poland: we will no longer maintain contact with Sejm Marshal Czarzasty
Effective immediately, we will no longer maintain contacts or communicate with the Marshal of the Sejm Włodzimierz Czarzasty - US Ambassador to Poland Tom Rose announced on Thursday."
It's a direct reaction to this: https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/czarzasty-zdecydowanie-o-trumpie-nie-popre-7250054321617216a "Włodzimierz Czarzasty, the Deputy Speaker of the Sejm, stated he would not back Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination. He argued that the US President's power-based approach to politics flouts international law and causes global instability."
lilac sphinx
graceful pecan
lilac sphinx
https://translate.kagi.com/www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/pilny-apel-premiera-w-sprawie-iranu-w-zadnym-wypadku-sie-tam-nie-wybierac/fpkw9sf,79cfc278 "Donald Tusk with an urgent appeal. "Please leave Iran immediately"
— Please leave Iran immediately and under no circumstances travel to that country — appealed Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Thursday during a speech in Zielonka. The head of government referred to a potential attack on that country by the United States."
steel rose
Connected to Poland?
pliant depot
Connected to Poland?
Oops that was an accidental post. It was meant to be posted in another server. Thank you for catching it and giving me the heads up. I have removed it.
civic wasp
Jarosław Kaczyński has announced that former minister of educstion Przemysław Czarnek is going to be PiS' candidate for PM in the 2027 election.
Czarnek represents the right wing of this right wing party. His nomination means further radicalisation of our politics.
This is understandable since PiS is falling in the polls with two Confederations at their heels. Kaczyński decided to fight not for the center, but for the right wing electorate
https://oko.press/czarnek-bicz-bozy-na-puste-lby-od-tuska-i-lewaczki-czarzastego
lilac sphinx
https://translate.kagi.com/oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/magyar-do-ziobro-i-romanowskiego-dlugo-tu-nie-pobedziecie they are coming back
Peter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party, which won the parliamentary elections in Hungary on Sunday, April 12, unseating Viktor Orban, said that under his rule, Hungary would not be an international asylum center for criminals.
"If I have something to say to Messrs. Ziobro and Romanowski: there's no point in buying furniture from Ikea, you won't be here long," Magyar said
lilac sphinx
lilac sphinx
MP Łukasz Litewka has passed away. The Left party politician was 36 years old. According to Polsat News, the tragic accident involving Litewka occurred after 1:00 PM on Kazimierzowska Street—the road connecting Dąbrowa Górnicza and Sosnowiec. The New Left MP was hit by a car while riding his bicycle. https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2026-04-23/nie-zyje-posel-lukasz-litewka-mial-36-lat/
robust remnant
MP Łukasz Litewka has passed away. The Left party politician was 36 years old. A...
Very active in charities, fund raising and animal rights aspects. Loss is big here.
lilac sphinx
https://eualive.net/the-girl-who-fooled-poland-how-easy-manipulation-without-verification-erodes-trust-in-leaders-and-institutions/ "The girl who fooled Poland: how easy manipulation without verification erodes trust in leaders and institutions.
On 8 March 2026, International Women’s Day, Polish President Karol Nawrocki stood in the Presidential Palace and pinned the Silver Cross of Merit on 17-year-old Kornelia Wieczorek. The youngest recipient in the award’s history, she was celebrated as a scientific prodigy whose breakthroughs in biodegradable fertilizers, dermatology apps, stem-cell research for Parkinson’s, and even hands-on neuroscience work at a Dutch institute had already earned her spots on TIME magazine’s inaugural “Girls of the Year 2025” list and Forbes Poland’s ranking of the 100 Most Influential Women. (...) Yet within weeks, anonymous Polish netizens on Reddit’s r/PolskaNaLuzie and Wykop.pl dismantled the narrative piece by piece. What emerged was not foreign disinformation or a sophisticated bot campaign – but a textbook case of homegrown manipulation that succeeded precisely because no one bothered to verify."
slate wagon
https://eualive.net/the-girl-who-fooled-poland-how-easy-manipulation-without-ver...
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lilac sphinx
Added
lilac sphinx
https://www-gazetaprawna-pl.translate.goog/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/11241963,prezydent-nawrocki-powoluje-rade-ds-nowej-konstytucji-prace-rusza-3.html?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true "According to Leśkiewicz's announcement, work on the new constitution is to be completed by the end of Karol Nawrocki's presidency . In addition to the Council for the New Constitution, in the coming days President Nawrocki will establish another body: the Council for the Polish Diaspora and Poles Abroad .
There are currently fourteen councils operating under the president, which constitute broad consultative and advisory bodies based on external experts."
civic wasp
Anna Mierzyńska pulls together what we know so far about Russian money behind the Zondacrypto fall.
https://oko.press/rosyjskie-sluzby-wykorzystaly-mafijna-przykrywke-by-przejac-zondacrypto
Quick update from Poland. Hope it fits in here, since it very much does affect our far right.
Anna Mierzyńska, expert on disinformation and Russian influences, pulls together what we know about Russian money and connections behind the Zondacrypto market, which collapsed in the last weeks. Turns out that at least since last December, PM Tusk and president Nawrocki have been informed by the services that Zonda has been backed by Russian money since 2018. Now it turns out that one of the guys behind it was also involved in the "tape scandal" in 2014, which very much helped PiS win the 2015 election. Russian fingerprints are all around the scandal, which is a well established knowledge now.
Gonna be honest: it looks less and less strange that the previous owner dissapeared in unknown circumstances and is presumed dead. It was after his death that BitBay changed name to Zondacrypto.
The far right connection: Zondacrypto was sponsoring both PiS and Konfederacja. They patroned the first CPAC Poland last year, former president Duda joined the board of ZEN payment system, which is deeply integrated with Zonda and PiS' owned TV Republika gave them the most ads by far. And according to Tusk, last year Zonda's owner Przemysław Kral transferred some 450k zlotys (110k euro) to one foundation connected to former MoJ Zbigniew Ziobro (currently moved from Hungary to the US) and 70k euro to a foundation connected to prominent Konfederacja politician Przemysław Wipler.
I recommend reading both articles, in order as below:
https://oko.press/rosyjskie-sluzby-wykorzystaly-mafijna-przykrywke-by-przejac-zondacrypto
https://oko.press/zondacrypto-kremlowskie-sluzby-i-polska-afera-podsluchowa
lilac sphinx
https://tvn24-pl.translate.goog/polska/zbigniew-ziobro-w-usa-mamy-zdjecie-st9040157?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp Former Justice Minister and Law and Justice MP Zbigniew Ziobro was spotted at Newark Airport in New Jersey, United States, on Saturday.
lilac sphinx