#Nord Stream Pipeline

1 messages · Page 13 of 1

serene grove
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it's also not very much on topic here

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and half the copies floating around are doctored so it's not even a reliable source anyway

raw nexus
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<@&941484701632307232>

harsh rock
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Yes.... no leak stuff please.
Thank you folks.

velvet rain
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Isn't this whole thing about a big leak though? thunk

junior moat
exotic shale
velvet rain
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Though I wouldn't say it's okay to take Seymour Hersh's reporting serious at all.

pure finch
stone wadi
elfin cradle
junior moat
pure finch
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@sand delta do you have that link handy for the country by country 12 nautical mile/EEZ zones files?

sand delta
pure finch
pure finch
sand delta
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np

stark palm
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The only Russian military press releases about the SS-750 that have come out since 2021 are that one

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And then these 2

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On the 6th September 2022 it supposedly assisted on a test dive to 100m for the "Ufa" and "Kronstadt" in the sea ranges of the Baltic Fleet

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and on 5th October 2022 it supposedly assisted on a test dive to 190m for the "Ufa"

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Neither of those two situations should bring it anywhere near Bornholm

sand delta
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Although if they were just out of a refit, it would make sense of course.

stark palm
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There is no water 100m deep in the Baltic west of Gdansk, so that can't have been excuse to go near Bornholm

stark palm
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@junior moat

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@elfin cradle @sand delta

sand delta
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Oh interesting

stark palm
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Why the hell are they using the AS-30 for that exercise

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Quite a way from Vladivostok

elfin cradle
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yeaahhhhh

sand delta
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Has there been recent news in the field of Russian submarine rescue?

elfin cradle
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https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12462504@egNews
"The crew of the submarine "Ufa" worked out "laying on the ground" in the marine training ground of the Baltic Fleet"

As part of the delivery of the course task L-2, the crew of the submarine "Ufa" worked out the element "laying on the ground" in the sea combat training ground of the Baltic Fleet.

I wonder where that area are they are laying the sub on the bottom...

sand delta
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Perhaps a new boat was ordered?

elfin cradle
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UFA is the newest one, and if its one of it first testdives, kinda make sense to have a submarine rescue near. But It should have done all testing

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Yeah, Ufa became a part of the navy after seaworthiness test last October/November. So they should not be worried that something should go wrong.

stark palm
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Even stranger if the AS-26 is still in the Baltic

elfin cradle
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I wish I had a map over Germanys 7 submarine diving areas east of Bornholm..

@sand delta Sara, do you know what the blob areas north of Gdynia is? Holding area for tankers?

Free_AIS_Ship_Tracker_-_VesselFinder_-_Google_Chro_20230416_1233AM_54469.png
stark palm
sand delta
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The red dots you mean?

stark palm
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The timing on that one is pretty hilariously suspect

elfin cradle
sand delta
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Oliver might have a chart handy

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But my understanding that that area has a tonne of wind farms?

sand delta
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Is this just after the reporting by t-online?

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And you of course.

stark palm
stark palm
elfin cradle
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I think I sumbled over some Russian naval forum last month. That had pretty good and obscure info. Will try to find it tomorrow.

sand delta
stark palm
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On the 23rd they mention the Ufa's L-2 test but no mention of any support vessels

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So far I don't see any mention of support vessels on any other L-2 tests for other subs

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Except for the random on the 25th

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Where they decide to basically rerelease the 23rd press release with the addition of "oh by the way, the SS-750 is helping"

elfin cradle
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I´ve only looked thoru the russian naval news very fast, but I cant find any article about Ufas sister-ship that is based in Kronstadt-

sand delta
stark palm
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"The immersion of the submarine was provided by warships and the SS-750 rescue ship of the Baltic Fleet."

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Warships and the SS-750

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hahaha

elfin cradle
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Does the SS-750 have a moonpool?

sand delta
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It launches the submarine using a davit so it might not necessarily

elfin cradle
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Nvm, it was just a wierd shadow on a photo.

sand delta
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Then again the Kusnetzov seemed to always be escorted by a tug

stark palm
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Just because it is easier than retyping

elfin cradle
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I can find 4 Kilo class in the Baltic in August 2022. Ok, one are in a drydock, and there is also a nuclerar attack sub visiting Kronstadt.

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Need to go and sleep, I have bearly slept at all the last 3 nights. But I will look into Russian navy forums and see if I can find something about the minisubs.

elfin cradle
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Huh, I was not aware that RU has 2 more mini-subs. Project 18270 (AS-36 North Fleet) & 18271 (AS-40, Pacific Fleet) (trying to figure out the motherships). That free up AS-34 & AS-30 for other stuff..

elfin cradle
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Have we seen anything about a yacht Copernicus? oh no, he is starting the yacht thing again

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This may be a long-shot to a dead theory, but it was already posted the 27th Sept. Maybe here they started the sailboat disinfo campain

"According to AIS and satellites on the navigation portals, the Copernicus yacht left the Polish port of Hel in the Gulf of Gdansk at noon on September 22 and arrived at the port of Nexo on the island of Bornholm on the evening of September 23.

Following the 9-seater ship went to a nearby small island in the Kristiansö archipelago to the east. And on September 25 at 17.00 she headed for the Polish port of Vladislavovka in the Gulf of Gdansk.

It is noteworthy that at 22.43 Copernicus was 40 kilometers from the point of the future leak on Nord Stream 2 and about 25 kilometers from the point of damage on Nord Stream. After that, the ship's position signal disappeared. And it appeared, judging by the data of navigation portals, already at 14.34 on September 26, when the ship was approaching the port of Vladislavovka."

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Must go to my nephew´s birthday, so I cant research this until this evening, but mayby one of you can try to see the ships movement, if they are sus or nåt.

limber hinge
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Copernicus is an old boat designed to compete in a round the world race. That means fast and light, not comfortable. The original interior, which looks ro be intact, is designed to provide the bare minimum of necessities for survival by a young and hardy crew.
At first glance she seems to be in her original configuration, minimal upgrades.
It would seem to be even less suited to dive operation than Andromeda. No easy water access, small battery bank.
Hard to see what role she would play.
BUT...who knows.

sand delta
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https://www.tichyseinblick.de/interviews/seymour-hersh
/

Tichys Einblick
Matthias Nikolaidis
Seymour Hersh: „Seit meiner ersten Nord-Stream-Story wurde Scholz z...

Unerbittlich geht Hersh mit den Regierenden ins Gericht. Wenn er den Irak-Krieg von George W. Bush schon äußerst unklug fand, dann könnte Bidens Nord-Stream-Anschlag noch eine Stufe höher stehen. Nach Hersh war es Bidens verzweifelter Versuch, die westeuropäischen Verbündeten bei der Stange zu halten – und sie in einen langen Krieg zu zwingen.

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Shortly after your story was published, video appeared online from a Florida Air Force veteran who, through freely available flight data, was able to say that there were indeed tracks from a P8 aircraft over Bornholm. There is also a P8 machine in your article: it therefore threw off the sonar buoy and thus triggered the explosions. The aviation expert Monkey Werx says that it was not a Norwegian, but an American machine, which was also refueled via Poland by a service plane coming from Germany. Could this be a missing piece of the puzzle in your story?

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[...]

Whether that was a Norwegian or a US machine is actually quite unimportant. Two years ago, Boeing delivered the first P8 machines to Norway with great fanfare, and US forces trained the Norwegians on the P8. In addition, American P8s fly extensive patrols in Norway. This plane must have come from Oslo. It is most likely that an American flew the plane. Because you tend not to rely on outsiders in such matters. But which plane was flying there - whether a Norwegian or an American one - is unimportant and trivial.

raw nexus
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Oh god, Tichy 🤮

sand delta
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In what world are the Americans going "yoohoo, can I borrow a plane please and thank you" to the Norwegians.

raw nexus
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Two more steps to the right and he can blend perfectly into the AFD

sand delta
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Just a casual 200 million dollar aircraft being loaned, no questions asked.

raw nexus
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He's also a was once a journalist

sand delta
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lol

velvet rain
sand delta
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lol

stone wadi
stone wadi
sand delta
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And they needed to make the pilot American to keep it all under wraps.

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Because apparently a Norwegian pilot won't respect OPSEC.

stone wadi
sand delta
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lol

stone wadi
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and why would they need to keep quiet about the plane going for a flight

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an other intresting thing
the Norwegan King is involved aproving top secret norwegan operations

elfin cradle
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Its interesting to see that the current Russian narrative had already started in 2020. Its like the Nordstream sabotage is taken straight from it and are built on the same wrong assumptions that lead to war.

It basically says that NS is essential for keeping EU (and Russia) as an independent geopolitical powers. And if they were destroyed US would be energy dominant over EU and they just become a vassal

The 21 Dec 2019 sanctions package because NS2 is “inconsistency with the economic interests of the US”, showed that legal and legislative norms in the field of world energy trade are no longer applied, being replaced by open arbitrariness."

"Sabotage of the pipelines is available to countries with moderate scientific and technical potential, such as Poland and Ukraine.

Underwater sabotage is also possible on the part of organizations and groups independent and relatively independent of any state, such as Ukrainian nationalist organizations, radical Islamists, etc. Terrorist influence in this case can be carried out by rather primitive methods.The Baltic Sea is shallow and the location of the pipeline is not a problem even with a minimal, relatively inexpensive and legally available set of equipment. The actual terrorist attack can be carried out by lowering a demolition charge on a cable."

"1. Terrorist impact on Russian underwater gas pipelines is almost inevitable. With a high degree of probability, the United States will act as the main initiator.
2. Attacks on Russian underwater gas pipelines will result in a large-scale crisis in the European Union. The result of the latter, with a high degree of probability, will not be alarmist rallying and state-public mobilization, but complex disorientation and disintegration.
3. As a result, EU will be liquidated as an independent geopolitical actor, and US take comprehensive control, with the aim to becoming The world's economic and political hegemon.

https://apn.ru/?newsid=38250

АПН - Агентство Политических Новостей
Российские подводные газопроводы будут уничтожены

Следом начнётся масштабный кризис Евросоюза. Начало 2020 года показало снижение спроса европейских потребителей на американский сжиженный природный газ (СПГ). Это отражает явно просматривающуюся

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Sorry for long text but that article is like the whole Nordstream scenario we have today. Just that he assumes that EU dosnt have any own agency (which the Russians have seen EU today, only as a vasall to US/NATO). And US would become energy dominant to EU, and the gas hit us harder than it did.
Google translate writes this article pretty wierd sometimes tho.

stone wadi
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lol
The actual terrorist attack can be carried out by lowering a demolition charge on a cable."
I would love to see the error margin on that, and if it is any better than just chucking it overboard

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you should mark quoted secitions with ether >>> `text`
or

text
block
image.png
elfin cradle
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Its the same mindset, the same rational that lead to the invasion. It must be rooted really really deep down in them, that the "Anglo-Saxons" control the rest of the EU/NATO, countries lacks own agency.

elfin cradle
stone wadi
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suspected that
three right arrows and a space create

this
etc

elfin cradle
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Ty, but I must go to bed now. Up in 5h..

stone wadi
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the single ` is mostly usefull for single line or short sections while three of them are usefull for long blocks of thext

tired monolith
limber hinge
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Am I correct in assuming nothing related to NorStream was was exposed in the recent leaks? Or is that question itself problematic?

elfin cradle
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Ask Aric? He has seen more of the documents than the few that were published on 4chan.

velvet rain
limber hinge
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Thanks for clarification.

stark palm
stark palm
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@elfin cradle @sand delta @junior moat

sand delta
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Oh that's quite a bombshell.

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Nice work Oliver.

stark palm
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interestingly when asked the same questions about photos US vessels in the area, they stated that they had none

sand delta
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👀

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We've the track of the Nymfen right?

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Give it a 5nm buffer on both sides for "reasonable visibility for pictures"

raw nexus
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They have you on alert, Alexander

Screenshot_20230417-204505.png
elfin cradle
sand delta
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One sec

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How high is the Nymfen's bridge?

stark palm
sand delta
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Yea, the Russian ships were definitely there.

elfin cradle
inner sandal
sand delta
elfin cradle
sand delta
pure finch
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👀

sand delta
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the diana is 611 px's long and 43m long so 14px per metre, and in this pic it's bridge is 92px high

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which gives the bridge an air draft/height above the water of approximately 6 metres

elfin cradle
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4.7nm then

sand delta
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to your own horizon

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but you can see over the horizon if the other ship is sticking its head over it

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so you've to add the reverse to get the absolute maximum possible distance

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not getting a terribly good picture at say 9.4 nm though

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but it's the absolute maximum assuming two 6m high things

inner sandal
velvet rain
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I did not follow the previous discussion in detail, but how much do we know about potential candidates for the Russian vessels?

sand delta
inner sandal
# velvet rain I did not follow the previous discussion in detail, but how much do we know abou...

Vessels on the list supplied to T-Online included SS-750 — a rescue ship — and two rescue tugboats, the Aleksandr Frolov and SB-123. These three had on-board equipment that could potentially have been useful for planting explosives. The two tugs have lifting equipment while the larger SS-750 rescue ship carries AS-26, a Priz-class mini-submarine with manipulator arms that can reportedly lift up to 50kg.

velvet rain
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Thank you for the summary!

pure finch
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@sand delta is there a steerable electro optical sensor on top of the Nymfen's bridge?

pure finch
limber hinge
velvet rain
strange bane
strange bane
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I'm not seeing anything.

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That looks like a camera.

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And my database of military systems is saying it doesn't.

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The systems on the top of the deckhouse on both sides are most likely search lights.

stark palm
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it has an IR camera

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I will get some details tomorrow, I know just who to ask

strange bane
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Where? 👀

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(On the picture I mean)

strange bane
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Oh it's a recent thing.

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The sensors will equip a range of platforms across the Danish military, but primarily land vehicles and naval vessels. Those outlined in the DALO notice include the Polaris MRZR, Supacat Intruder, Mowag Piranha 5, Naval Special Warfare Rigid Inflatable Boat, Iver Huitfeldt-class frigate, Absalon-class frigate, Thetis-class inspection ship, Knud Rasmussen-class inspection vessel, and Diana-class patrol vessel.

stark palm
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I realized that I know someone who has been a Captain on the Diana-class

strange bane
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You can see it here.

strange bane
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It does seem that the Diana-class were on escort duty for any Russian transits of the Sound.

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Which makes sense in relation to what their stated duties are. I wonder could you ask your friend is there a Danish naval protocol for Russian naval transits of the Sound? @stark palm

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Does Denmark get a notice that a transit is going to occur, or is it a case that the Russians show up without notice?

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Yea, the FLIR has been there for a couple years.

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  1. Eskadre is the Danish Navy's sovereignty and surveillance related tasks unit.
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(Just replacing the picture I posted with one that has the faces blurred, out of respect for the sailors privacy)

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Alternative pictures of the Diana spectating the Tour de France in 2022.

pure finch
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It's midnight, so it's timelapse time again. First one is a zoomed out view showing P524 - Nymfen approaching the area and some other military traffic.

The second shows an approximate view range for P524 - this is back of the envelope stuff, 5NM = 9.26KM. I had to do some clunky workarounds, so if it's wildly inaccurate; my apologies.

Of note, P524 gets close to a Swedish vessel - I wonder if the Swedish crew were taking photos at the same time? 🤷

Thanks to @velvet rain for helping out with improving these and of course @stark palm for bringing this new info to light.

strange bane
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Those pictures have to be of the ships in the vicinity.

pure finch
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As there was a nice Sentinel 1 pass @ 16:45 UTC on 22 Sep, I thought we might see the Russian vessels over the site - but they had gone by then 😦

Quite possibly visible elsewhere in the same S1 pass, but will require some work to figure out where.

stone wadi
# strange bane Which makes sense in relation to what their stated duties are. I wonder could yo...

IIRC the protocol is "follow it closely alternative have Danish personal on the bridge" and get annoyed when they insist on hitting each waypoint at their sepcificed time instead of just making sure that the overall time is correct

I think that was form article that interveiwed a danish captain about the precedure on russian ships.

lets say they are really "by the book"
even if the book is bullshit

stone wadi
elfin cradle
pure finch
inner sandal
harsh rock
stark palm
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Think there might be some new info in the 3 part documentary made by together by the public service networks of Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland. First part is coming tomorrow

little zinc
# stark palm Think there might be some new info in the 3 part documentary made by together by...

https://digitalt.tv/premierekalender/skyggekrigen/

The series is the largest overall journalistic coverage of the Russian hybrid war in the Nordics ever. The coverage has been done with the support of Nordvision, which is a fund set up with the aim of strengthening public service productions in the Nordic countries.

On 19 April, the result of the extensive Nordic cooperation will be published. A three-hour long documentary series in three episodes entitled 'The Shadow War', which is broadcast simultaneously in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. On DR1, the first episode can be seen on Wednesday at 21:25, and the series can also be seen on DRTV, where the first episode premieres already at 6:00 on 19 April.

In continuation of the series 'Shadow War', DR publishes a podcast series in six episodes - also with the title 'Shadow War'. It can be heard for the first time on April 26 on DR Lyd.

DIGITALT.TV
Webmaster - Bo Kjærgaard
Skyggekrigen - DR1 klar med ny nordisk dokumentarserie - DR TV

I dokumentarserien ’Skyggekrigen’ afslører et hold af graverjournalister fra DR, NRK, SVT og Yle, hvordan Rusland fører hybridkrig i de nordiske lande

strange bane
stark palm
strange bane
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Discord Watch party.

stark palm
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I have set my alarm to 6AM so I can watch it right away

elfin cradle
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Perfect thing to eat breakfest to.

tired monolith
raw nexus
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I'm up, does it have subtitles?

tired monolith
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not sure if any of them per default sub in english

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can you access the nrk version? from my experience they are good with having things open as long as they are not limited by some rights stuff

raw nexus
tired monolith
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vlad making an apperance

raw nexus
elfin cradle
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@pure finch Looks a bit more intentional than MJ.

SVT_Play_-_Google_Chrome_20230419_0616AM_53173.jpg
raw nexus
elfin cradle
elfin cradle
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"When the TV crew from DR met "Admiral Vladimirsky" between Sweden and Denmark, they saw masked men with automatic weapons."

stark palm
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Nothing major NS related in the first episode

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but it does seem like the next ones may focus more on it

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while very interesting, the first episode did seem a but messy editing-wise.

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Jumping between spying at Volvo, Svalbad, fishing vessels and NS

tired monolith
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yeah its more of a setting the context episode than narrowed down on a more narrow storyline

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but its interesting with the cable cut, it seems similar - perhaps its worth looking at if there is some correlation between the ships suspected to be involved there and the nord stream - even if its different gis wise there might be similarities in the owner structures or other related information

stark palm
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The cable cutting was a much easier operation in many regards as it could be done by just dragging an anchor.

They very much stepped it up for Nord Stream

tired monolith
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but the approach does seem similar, and would make sense if the governments end up in a similar position that they cant prove it even if almost all the pieces fit

stark palm
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but everything here does point even more towards Russia and GUGI as I have long suspected

tired monolith
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so a relative short jump in correlations when you see very unnatural movements at nord stream area, even if as you say this is a more complex area, more montiored and that cables are easier to oopsie than gas pipes

elfin cradle
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https://twitter.com/PutinIsAVirus/status/1628745062845669376

And here is the IMO/MMSI if anyone wants to dig deeper:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SFvSUkFdgdS__BdxSu98cDxC4623GXAvwOcEhTR5wbQ/edit?usp=sharing

Putin is a Virus (@PutinIsAVirus)

Fast map showing Russian spy vessels activity Jan 2022 - Jan 2023.
Compared to 2021 (next tweet) activity shifted somewhat focusing on the Baltic area and apparently comm cables just north of England.
Also (not shown) Persian gulf activity was replaced with South America voyages

Twitter ·
Google Docs
Russian Research Vessels

Blad1

IMO,MMSI
AKADEMIK ALEKSANDR KARPINSKY,8227238,273457410
AKAD.M.A. LAVRENTYEV,8211162,273430900
AKADEMIK B.PETROV,8211150,273454710
AKADEMIK FERSMAN,8313958,273455310
AKADEMIK GOLITSYN,8119003,273451600
AKADEMIK LAZAREV,8408985,273450600
AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH,7811018,273411400
AKADEMIK ...

stark palm
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can’t wait for Hersh’s new piece where somehow this is proof that the US did it

stark palm
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Does anyone happen to have a chart handy that shows the territorial water limits in Danish waters. Specifically in regards to the line of “international waters” that exists through the Danish straight

stark palm
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The true culprit is revealed! 👀

raw nexus
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Lol. At the end it was a rubberboat crew. All is possible.

tired monolith
# raw nexus Lol. At the end it was a rubberboat crew. All is possible.

everything, you say? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_marine_mammal

Military marine mammal

A military marine mammal is a cetacean or pinniped that has been trained for military uses. Examples include bottlenose dolphins, seals, sea lions, and beluga whales. The United States and Soviet militaries have trained and employed oceanic dolphins for various uses. Military marine mammals have been trained to rescue lost naval swimmers, guard ...

little zinc
pure finch
strange bane
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Passage of Warships

The 1857 treaties are not applicable to warships (or other government ships operated for non-commercial purposes). In their regulations concerning the passage of warships and other government ships operated for non-commercial purposes, Denmark and Sweden have made special provision for passage through the Danish Straits. Until 1994, Sweden required prior notification of passage of foreign warships through its territorial sea. Such notification was not required for passage through the Swedish territorial sea in the Sound. Although this is not explicitly indicated, the provisions of the relevant ordinance indicate that the regime of passage is that of innocent passage. Danish regulations accord foreign warships a right of innocent passage within the meaning of international law through the Danish territorial sea. Submarines are required to navigate on the surface in the Danish territorial sea. The right of innocent passage also exists in the Danish Straits. Simultaneous passage of the Great Belt or the Sound of more than three warships of the same nationality is subject to prior notification through diplomatic channels. There have been incidents with more than three ships passing at the same time through the Great Belt, but usually the flag state complies with the applicable Danish rules. The passage of warships of the Hollaenderdyb and Drogden, parts of the Sound comprised within Danish internal waters forming part of the roadstead of Copenhagen and the Little Belt, which also forms part of Danish internal waters, is subject to advance notification.

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The positions of Denmark and Sweden concerning passage of warships is not shared by all other states. The view of the United States is that warships have either the customary right of transit passage or the conventional right of "free and unencumbered navigation", since transit passage is more restrictive than freedom of navigation guaranteed under the 1857 treaties. As was noted above, it is doubtful that the 1857 treaties also apply to warships. Whether the generally existing customary law regime of passage of warships through straits has been altered by state practice in respect of the Danish Straits would require a more detailed analysis.

stone wadi
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Traité pour l'abolition des droits du Sund et des Belts

Haven't found the real text or it translated but from what I can find it only applies for innocent passage

strange bane
strange bane
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For what it's worth, it is a ship of the Russian Navy, so not surprising it has armed men onboard.

stone wadi
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the Commitment to: 1. not to collect any Customs, Cargo Fees, Lighthouse and Lighthouse Fees, Barrel Fees, or any other Shipping or Loading Fee of the ships, who pass the Belts or the Sound to go from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea, or vice versa, whether they are unable to sail through Danish waters or are forced to drop anchor there or seek a port, be it due to accidents at sea or because of commercial operations. No ship shall for the future, under any pretext whatever, dare to be detained or subject to any arrest on its voyage through the strait and the belts; but His Majesty the King of Denmark expressly reserves the right to, by separate agreements, which do not require any visitation or arrest, to arrange the prosecution and customs treatment of the ships of those Powers which have not taken part in the present Treaty
Now the question is: "do that apply to ships that aren't trade vessels"
2. neither of the registered ships that enter or leave Danish ports with cargo or ballast, whether those who have carried on commercial operations or not, or demand from their cargoes any tax whatsoever, to which these ships or their cargoes, by reason of the passage through the straits or belts, would have been subjected, and the abolition of which has been stipulated in the preceding passage; and is it to be understood that the costs abolished in this way, which consequently must neither be collected in the Sound and the Belts nor in the Danish ports, nor can they be restored indirectly either by increasing the existing port and customs duties for that purpose, or with the same aim of introducing new shipping or customs duties, or in any other way. Nature.

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```2. His Majesty the King of Denmark still commits himself directly to the above-mentioned high contracting parties to: 1. to preserve and maintain all the past at the inlets and approaches to His harbours, moors, rivers or canals or existing lighthouses and lighthouses along His coasts, as well as the buoys, barrels and pilotage marks that now exist and serve to facilitate navigation in the Kattegat, the Sound and the Belts ; 2. for the future, as heretofore, in the general interest of shipping, to take into serious consideration whether it would be useful and convenient to change the location and shape of these lighthouses, lighthouses, buoys, barrels and pilot marks, or to increase their number, without anything imposed as a burden for the foreign shipping; 3. for the future, as heretofore, to supervise the pilotage service, the use of which in the Kattegatte, The sound and the belts at all times are left to the captains and shipmasters' own well-being. It is understood that the pilotage fees should be moderate, that one and the same rate should apply to Danish and foreign ships, and the reported fee will only be able to be charged to those ships that have voluntarily used pilots; 4. without any intrusion whatsoever, to allow all, both Danish and foreign, Private Contractors, at their own pleasure and under the same conditions, without regard to their nationality, in the Sound and the Belts, to lay down and station vessels, exclusively intended for the towing of the ships , who wish to make use thereof````

strange bane
stark palm
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I hope the next episode is more Nord Stream related

tired monolith
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Elon and Shellenberger is fighting to keep Hersh stupidity relevant

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by attacking another publicly funded media outlet

raw nexus
#

Can someone check if there's interesting footage in the Baltic sea with the new Google pro images. It's possible there isn't and it's only in Ukraine. (See Geolocation Ukraine H/t @foggy mirage )

strange bane
strange bane
raw nexus
strange bane
#

Ah gotcha

elfin cradle
#

I got pointed out that Russia basically have bombed its own pipelines before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Russia–Georgia_energy_crisis

puts on a tin-foil hat There are some similar parallels. Both occurred when the electrical net were pressured by bad weather, both occurred in a country where it had been a color revolution, additional bombing occurred to press the net even more, both occurred just after 00:00 UTC. taking off my conspiratorial tin-foil hat


Russian officials earlier described the attacks as deliberate acts by pro-Chechen criminals and said an investigation was under way.

Hours later, a third explosion -- in Karachaevo-Cherkessia, another southern Russian republic -- ripped through a power line, temporarily cutting off a portion of Georgia's electricity supplies.

Relations between Georgia and Russia have been tense since Mr Saakashvili was swept to power by the so-called "Rose Revolution" in 2003, pledging to lead his nation on a pro-Western course.

Two explosions occurred on the main branch and a reserve branch of the Mozdok-Tbilisi gas pipeline in North Ossetia at about 0300 local time (2400 GMT) on Sunday.```
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4638566.stm
stone wadi
serene grove
#

russian spec ops the type of dudes to have their VCR blinking 12:00

elfin cradle
strange bane
#

Anyone know who funded what percentage of Nordstream?

elfin cradle
#

If looking at Nord Stream AG:

"Gazprom International Projects LLC, a subsidiary of Gazprom – 51%
Wintershall Dea AG – 15.5%
PEG Infrastruktur AG, a subsidiary of E.ON Beteiligungen – 15.5%
N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie – 9%
Engie – 9%
"

strange bane
#

For example, I’ve read in a couple places that it was mostly Western European funded, but I’m struggling to find anything reliable. If it’s a high percentage European funded thing, the incredulity of “why would Russia blow up its own pipeline” is a bit hollow

#

And it becomes more a “Russia destroys X billion euros worth of European investment”

strange bane
#

And 51 percent Russian.

serene grove
#

plus the lost gas revenue

strange bane
#

NS2 cos 9.5 billion euros apparently, the offshore portion of NS1 cost 9 billion euros.

#

Rounding everything off, and halving the cost of NS2 cos it’s half broken, that’s destroying 7.5 billion euros worth of European property.

#

Admittedly it’s doing equal damage to Russian property, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to what Russia had already lost access to at that point.

elfin cradle
#

Wasnt NS2 was fully owned / funded by Gazprom?

#

NS2 was the only shareholder was Gazprom (sounds weird if others also financed it but did not get any shares).
```Gazprom paid half the cost of building Nord Stream 2, with the remainder of the $11 billion pipeline project financed by British oil and gas major Shell (S.HELL), Austria's OMV (OMVV.VI), France's Engie and Germany's Uniper (UN01.DE) and Wintershall DEA (WINT.UL).````
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/exclusive-nord-stream-2-owner-considers-insolvency-after-pipeline-halt-sanctions-2022-03-01/

stone wadi
elfin cradle
limber hinge
# strange bane NS2 cos 9.5 billion euros apparently, the offshore portion of NS1 cost 9 billion...

Somewhere I read the cost to repair, if done reasonably quickly, was like $500 million Euros.
It is like you are in an accident with your car, you only loose the cost of repair. And Russia may have expected to get some profit for the repair?
The loss of gas is another matter, I don't know that value.

So it depends upon how Rissia expected Europe to react to the loss of gas. If Putin assumed Europe would freak out, and pay him to repair the facility, he was looking at a far smaller hit. If he expected it to cause NATO to cease supporting Ukraine, the those savings would offset the pipeline loss.

Of course I do not know, I am just pointing to a possible alternative financial analysis. And obviously, if that was his plan, then it backfired.

limber hinge
# elfin cradle Old soviet fuses for underwater could have time settings for days and some could...

I don't know of any reason that it would be difficult to fabricate a simple timer fuse or detonator. I have timers on my boat, 12VDC, that can be set to open or close contacts any day of the week.

So you set the timers Sunday to go off Saturday. That gives you nearly 7 days to set the charges.

Now I have the tin foil hat. The explosive materials, think 20 kilo blocks if explosive could be pre positioned. You want 200kg of explosive you place 10 "bricks". This could be done at anytime, months in advance.

When sure you want to do the demolition come back and place the detonator in the pile of explosive bricks. That detonator is a small waterproof box with the timer, a battery, the fuse, and a small amount of explosive, enough to set off the pile of "bricks".

All of this could (easily??) be handled by the rescue sub.

And there is no special anything except the explosives, all freely available on Amazon.

eager moss
# limber hinge Somewhere I read the cost to repair, if done reasonably quickly, was like $500 m...

Insurance cover of the pipelines has been renewed, which would cover the cost of repairs, and Gazprom have initiated engineering studies to determine how the pipelines can be sealed and preserved for future repair. The cost of repair is difficult to assess without knowing the full extent of the damage caused and the requirements of the regulatory authority that would need to be satisfied before the pipelines can deliver gas. The damage requiring repair is not limited to the areas of obvious destruction but could include significantly longer lengths where seawater ingress has resulted in significant internal deterioration of the steel; caused by SRB (sulphate reducing bacteria) rather than 'normal' chloride corrosion. The oxygen content at the seabed at the site of the NS1 destruction is anoxic (<2% oxygen) and there is H2S (hydrogen sulphide) present which indicates SRB. SRB 'corrosion' can be particularly rapid, although it is more usually a problem in warmer water, whilst the chloride corrosion is a slower process.

#

The extent of seawater intrusion depends upon whether the pipeline valves at the landfall locations have been opened to allow the controlled release of gas. If they have not been opened, the pressure of the gas inside the pipeline will be about 7 or 8 bar - the external hydrostatic pressure at the rupture. The profile shows the extent of seawater intrusion for the NS1 pipeline profile (green line shows 8 bar) and it shows that seawater intrusion could be very localised to the rupture sites. Alternatively, if the gas has been released at the landfall locations then the seawater intrusion could be for a much longer length depending upon the residual pressure in the pipeline. If the pressure is reduced to atmospheric pressure, or slightly above, then the pipeline will be filled with seawater but there will still be gas in the pipeline at discrete locations along the entire length - at the high points in the pipeline as it lies on the undulating seabed profile. This of course presents another set of problems that needs to be addressed regardless of whether the pipelines are to be repaired and reused.

Image_27-3-2023_at_11.07.jpeg
rustic bay
eager moss
rustic bay
eager moss
elfin cradle
#

Its less than a week until the geologist pappers regarding the explosions at NS is presented at EGU23.

Screenshot_2023-04-21_at_07.47.38.png
eager moss
tranquil sigil
#

Boeing WC-135R Constant Phoenix low over the water off coast of Kaliningrad....consistent with sniffing out a gas leak

stone wadi
stone wadi
inner sandal
# elfin cradle Its less than a week until the geologist pappers regarding the explosions at NS ...

As can be seen from the programme, each presentation will be only 10 minutes. Ben Dando, one of the authors of the third paper, tells me the full papers will not be automatically available. He's checking with his co-authors to see if I can have a copy. The situation is a bit complicated because the three groups of seismologists are now planning to combine all their work into a single paper which may not be available until some time in the summer.

elfin cradle
elfin cradle
limber hinge
stone wadi
#

the problem is making the box

limber hinge
#

You make the very few pressure sensitive events small, and the "pot" them, sealed in epoxy.

little zinc
# elfin cradle Its doing baseline sampling. Nothing out of the ordinary. This individual plane ...

One of the individuals in contact with Russian officials was Ralph Niemeyer, Wagenknecht’s ex-husband. He told The Post that he was still in near-daily communication with Wagenknecht and that during recent meetings with top-level Kremlin officials in Moscow it was clear to him that “there are certain people in Russia who have [an] interest” in a union between Wagenknecht and the far right.
“I know from private talks with these people that they are aware of the potential that this would have,” said Niemeyer, whose house was raided in late March as part of a criminal investigation over his alleged involvement in a plot by the ultra-right Reichsbürger movement to overthrow the German government — allegations that Niemeyer denies.

AfD members and Niemeyer have continued to travel to Russia since the war began. When Niemeyer traveled to Vladivostok, a Russian city in the Far East, in September, he posted images on social media of his meetings at an economic forum with Peskov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Alexei Miller, chief executive of Gazprom, the Russian state gas giant.
Niemeyer said at the time he was there to negotiate a new gas supply contract through Nord Stream 2 with Moscow, on behalf of what he called “a German government in exile.”

Niemeyer said he returned to Moscow following the Baltic Sea explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September and was told by a top Kremlin official, Yury Ushakov, that supplies could still be delivered through Nord Stream 2, where one branch was undamaged in the explosions. During these meetings, he said, he was given a special encrypted telephone for communicating securely with Peskov, who, he said, is also interested in the effort to unite Wagenknecht and the AfD. Peskov did not respond to a request for comment about whether he gave an encrypted phone to Niemeyer.

https://archive.is/uJYGM (WaPo: Kremlin tries to build antiwar coalition in Germany, documents show)

tranquil sigil
#

to detect if a nuclear test has happened but it can be re-tasked to sample pretty much any airborne particle or gas

limber hinge
#

Alex
80 meters is about 8 BAR. About 120 PSI. 4" schedule 40 pipe, electrical conduit has a working pressure of 1,400PSI and a burst pressure of 6,300 PSI.

The "box" is a piece of pipe.

tranquil sigil
#

Don't forget this descended to 5500'

#

In the area

little zinc
#

its the first time for the airframe in europe, its normal procedure to do baseline sampling. did the same north of norway and around the kola peninsula in the last days. its basic knowledge for aviation researcher.

elfin cradle
# tranquil sigil You know this how?, why would it try to establish baseline samples in that area?

Because its the same new plane that have done baseline testing elsewhere. You need to do baseline testing for every location so you know what the background is.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-nuke-sniffing-jet-flies-off-south-america-on-first-international-mission

The Drive
New Nuke-Sniffing Jet Flies Off South America On First Internationa...

The Air Force's first WC-135R Constant Phoenix collected air samples off South America's eastern coast to establish baseline atmospheric radiation conditions.

#

However I´ve seen increased radiation in Finland, but it seems to be normal changes during the year, no artificial nuclides. But that is kinda why you need to do diffrent baslinesamples at diffrent time of the year.

v33bjZYo.png
stone wadi
stone wadi
# limber hinge Alex 80 meters is about 8 BAR. About 120 PSI. 4" schedule 40 pipe, electrical ...

positive or negative?
best I can find is this
Schedule 80 PVC pipe 6-inch showed no deformation at temperatures to 170°F and 27 inches of mercury vacuum. The 6" pipe specimens showed slight deformation at 165°F and 20 inches of mercury vacuum.

Not saying that it is impossible
more that you would have to build something
and likely seal it before throwing it overboard.
(yes you could fill it with mineral oil and with a bit extra work get around the implosion problem

tranquil sigil
#

The South American flight has no bearing on this

elfin cradle
rustic bay
tranquil sigil
elfin cradle
#

Yes, you asked for source.

tranquil sigil
#

I asked for a source that confirmed your theory, that doesnt but never mind this is getting to be a distraction

elfin cradle
tranquil sigil
#

It passed downwind of them

#

I am only theorising, Its ok to put forward theories of course but you presented as fact hence my questioning

#

I thought you might have inside knowledge oof the flight

little zinc
elfin cradle
eager moss
stone wadi
#

what is the expected/estimated max distance the core of a nuke could be detected from?
(we are if anything too good at detecting radiation than too bad)

serene grove
#

an unexploded nuke is pretty hard to detect

#

they don't put out a whole lot of radiation

elfin cradle
stone wadi
serene grove
#

also that's a different type of radiation than the particulates this thing is probably instrumented for

#

you'd just need a regular geiger counter

#

but you'd have to be within...I dunno, 30-40 feet of it?

stone wadi
serene grove
#

r squared and all that

elfin cradle
#

Bearly that, the Plutonium and Uranium in nuclear weapons are mainly Alpha particles, and then the core is surrounded in heavy metal tampers like wolfram or depleted uranium. You basically need to have a gamma spectrometer next to it.

serene grove
#

but yeah a nuclear weapon core is like, you can carry it around in a suitcase, it's fine

#

it's not like the planes carrying nuclear bombs gave their pilots cancer :p

elfin cradle
#

But once a nuke has exploded and spread radioactive fallout it dosnt require much for it to be detected as it stand so much out from the background radiation. Like the Ru106 release in 2017 or the Nyonoksa accident in 2019 were detected in very small amount.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_radioactivity_increase_in_Europe_in_autumn_2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

Airborne radioactivity increase in Europe in autumn 2017

Airborne radioactivity was detected in Europe during autumn 2017, starting from the last days of September. The source is widely suspected to be in Russia; the Russian government, however, denies that any nuclear mishaps occurred that could have caused the radiation spike. The radioactive isotope detected was ruthenium-106; across Europe, it wa...

Nyonoksa radiation accident

The Nyonoksa radiation accident, Arkhangelsk explosion or Nyonoksa explosion (Russian: Инцидент в Нёноксе, romanized: Intsident v Nyonokse) occurred on 8 August 2019 near Nyonoksa, a village under the administrative jurisdiction of Severodvinsk, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russian Federation. Five military and civilian specialists were killed and three ...

stone wadi
serene grove
#

oooooooh you'd be surprised

#

this isn't even close to the smallest one

Davy-Crockett-warhead.png
#

and that's a fully assembled weapon, not just the core

stone wadi
little zinc
#

did something nuclear come up in the nord stream pipeline investigation or is this a case for #1096714680845738076?

stone wadi
#

(but yeah we should stop now 😄 )

little zinc
#

yeah, the tweet says its collecting a baseline and was an answer to the question why the nuke sniffer was in the baltic. dont know how it went from that to this

#

but i dont follow that closely here, so could be that i missed something.

stone wadi
serene grove
#

but yeah I don't think anyone is about to suitcase nuke the pipeline so probably off topic

elfin cradle
stone wadi
#

Do we have anyone from Denmark here?

elfin cradle
#

Alexander is probably already on it.

stone wadi
#

feels like the kind of thing that should be easy to find in Danish papers but hard outside

#

Is this compleatly new info?


Such work can require long periods in dark waters breathing air from tanks filled with heliox, a mixture of helium and oxygen—and no nitrogen, due to its potentially narcotic effects. Over beers in a Copenhagen bar, one of Denmark’s most experienced navy divers says finding the pipelines without precise coordinates or tracking technology, then transporting and placing the explosives, would’ve challenged diver-saboteurs. The charges, which likely weighed hundreds of pounds, had been placed against the underside of the pipes, with the velocity of the explosions helping avoid a fireball that might have ripped along the pipelines in both directions. The diver estimates the operation, including a safe ascent, would’ve taken an individual diver several hours. He surmises that whoever carried out the attack had access to a fast-moving autonomous submersible vehicle, like the ones employed by sophisticated naval forces. A surface vessel remaining relatively static for hours as it waited for a dive team, he says, would’ve attracted unwanted attention in the moment or been flagged by investigators after the fact.
The Danish navy says the hypothesis is sound, as it would’ve been difficult for divers to spend the time required [...]
#

also the fireball idea sounds unlikely?

serene grove
#

yeah that's not possible at all, pure natural gas is not flammable

#

needs oxidizer

#

the rest of the info seems solid though

stone wadi
#

yeah my thoughts too

serene grove
#

weird that a diver wouldn't know about gas properties though

#

that's kind of life or death knowledge in that line of work

stone wadi
#

the guy is a UXO diver not a pipeline welder

#

lol

And those skills have been beefed up over the past two decades as Russian submarines have increasingly probed the country’s waters.
(it have actually decreased since the mid 90s but have recently started up gain)

elfin cradle
#

I still wonder if the large section of missing pipe is caused by the explosives (which would had been placed along the section of the pipeline) or that the expanding gas lifted the whole section up.

stone wadi
#

I would guess that would be differnt in how the damage looked

strange bane
stone wadi
strange bane
#

Ah

eager moss
# elfin cradle I still wonder if the large section of missing pipe is caused by the explosives ...

some of the video taken for expressen and for tv1 shows that the pipeline had moved on the seabed during the immediate gas release (that's the lengths of pipeline that are still on the seabed). The seabed where the 270 metre long section that's missing used to be is very 'disturbed' but it's difficult to tell if that's because of the explosion(s) or the interventions carried out after the gas discharge had finished (and before the rov surveys were performed).

eager moss
# stone wadi IIRC the Expressen or was it aftonbladet 🤷 article talked about "sectons might...

I think the idea that the pipeline was cut is the result of limited views on the rov survey that was published which seem to show a shiny smooth steel surface where the rupture occurred (mostly because of the reflected light). On closer and more careful inspection it can be seen that the surface is not as smooth as it first appears and that the steel wall is in fact torn not cut. It's also a curved tear and not a straight cut as it appears on some of the vision/photos/

Image_1-4-2023_at_11.26.jpeg
stone wadi
#

the oddest thing with that is that it is expressen that made that investegation

They are not a paper anyone that serious

rustic bay
#

Posting links would really help keep things transparent!

eager moss
eager moss
# strange bane I thought Sweden or Denmark cut out their respective parts of the pipeline to in...

the initial reports after the inspection was conducted reported that objects had been recovered. The Expressen vision publicly available is for NS1-A only and only for one end of the destroyed line (the end coming from Russia) which doesn't look as though it was cut. It may be that the other end (going towards Germany) was cut but there is no vision of that section of the destroyed NS1-A. The vision of NS2-A south of Bornholm is only side on so the end of the pipeline can't be seen.

rustic bay
stone wadi
#

but yes it was expressen

#

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/forsta-bilderna-fran-sprangda-gasroret-pa-ostersjons-botten/

Första bilderna från sprängda gasröret

SÖDRA ÖSTERSJÖN. Här inträffade explosionerna som har eskalerat den geopolitiska konflikten mellan Ryssland och västvärlden. På botten, 80 meter under Östersjöns yta, filmar Expressen de söndersprängda gasledningarna i Nord Stream 1. Vår undervattenskamera dokumenterar långa revor i havsbotten innan den når det betongarmerade stålröret som sliti...

rustic bay
stone wadi
#

honestly expressen doing this kind of reporting is more odd than buzzfeed doing serious reportin (in the past?)

#

their usial reporting is (at best) about shit like this
A school in Washington, USA, is facing criticism after a video of a game between teachers and students was shared on social media. In the game, students and teachers compete to lick up marshmallow cream on either side of a plexiglass.

eager moss
#

The ROV survey was done by Blueye for Expressen and later for BBC. The survey done for TV1 used a Blueye ROV but wasn't conducted by the company.

limber hinge
stone wadi
tranquil sigil
stone wadi
tranquil sigil
#

Surely -10PSI on the inside of a pipe the same as +10 PSI on the outside, so still quite a low pressure differential

#

( do understand how a pipe has different tolerance to - and + due its shape)

stone wadi
#

sure
in the end my point is just "don't assume that something can take a vacuum because it can take high pressure" as that is rarely the case.
IIRC some space travle SF thing had their space ship end up under water for some reason and the captain asked the enginere "what hull pressure is this ship rated for" the enginere answered "eehhh, It is a space ship so I would guess -1"
If you assume something can take a vaccum in error you can easy end up with this:

tranquil sigil
#

I imagine we all know this from experience with plastic drinks bottle

vocal violet
#

Yeah, but the average Joe would not expect that from inches thick metal

tranquil sigil
#

So back to the matter in hand, are we saying that the gas mains can only take a -10 PSI (10 PSI external) pressure differential? what is the pressure at the depth they are laid and are they reliant on positive internal pressure to avoid collapse (I find the last point unlikely but have no knowledge)

tranquil sigil
#

At 100 metre depth pressure = 10 Bar (145 PSI) relative to atmosphere = 11 Bar absolute ,so I begin to think the 10 PSI figure was a mistake

#

Nordstream pipe laid at 80 - 110 metres depth

serene grove
#

the pipe is laid unpressurized, ergo it can stand to be unpressurized again

eager moss
#

the "20 inches of vaccuum pressure" probably applied to a pvc pipe or some similar material, not to a steel pipe. Gas pipelines are installed in much deeper water than in the Baltic Sea and external hydrostatic pressure is seldom a controlling factor on wall thickness in such shallow water depths; it's usually internal pressure. To illustrate the point, prior to installing Nordstream 2, one of the pipelay vessels, the Pioneering Spirit, had installed a 32" diameter line (wall thickness 39mm) into 2,200 metres of water depth in the Black Sea. https://allseas.com/project/turkstream/ At 2,200 metres the external hydrostatic pressure will certainly have been a consideration in determining the wall thickness required; but for Nordstream there wouldn't have been the same concern although tighter requirements were specified on the ovality of the manufactured pipe.

Allseas
Mirella
TurkStream - Allseas
stone wadi
serene grove
#

I would take PVC over metal any day for something that will be under negative pressure

#

it really does not want to be crushed

stone wadi
#

you do you 🤷

serene grove
#

all the homemade ROV designs use it :p

#

but yeah for a bigger pipe at pressures high enough to push gas long distances it makes sense that the limiting factor would be overpressure not underpressure

stone wadi
#

they arent going to be useing PVC pipes becouse they are better, they are going to use them becosue they are cheeper

serene grove
#

I believe they're also lighter for the amount of strength you get (at least in small diameters like for holding electronics)

stone wadi
#

making it light is not an advantage if you are going to toss it overboard and want it to sink 😛

serene grove
#

oh right yeah I guess the ROVs are meant to be neutrally boyant

stone wadi
#

I would suspect that they build them with a slight posetive bias so they return to the surface if everything fails

serene grove
#

in my experience you haul em up by the tether hahaha

#

but anyway, this is related to if the charges were planted separately from the detonators?

#

I think that's kinda unlikely

#

making extra trips is expensive, risky, and more likely to get you caught

stone wadi
#

do TNT or other high explosives sink or float?

eager moss
stone wadi
#

hm

serene grove
#

rdx is about the same as that iirc

exotic shale
#

did this get sorted out? I took a look now with my professional license and I can's see Visby in 2022. Can't reproduce your tracks above, but I could earlier in March this year.

stark palm
#

So according to them they have never had data for the Visby prior to 2023

exotic shale
# stark palm So according to them they have never had data for the Visby prior to 2023

That's obviously bullshit. I remember clearly reproducing those tracks in early March, but noted they were almost the only Swedish military tracks for the entire season before the blast. In my contacts with Marine Traffic support, they have denied ever touching the database, but maybe they don't keep their own archive, and there is another way for the military to scrub the open source database. Have you tried downloading the raw data?

serene grove
#

I mean Oliver also has a screenshot of the track iirc

#

So it's not really disputed as to whether it was there before

elfin cradle
#

Its still in the Danish AIS data.

exotic shale
# elfin cradle Its still in the Danish AIS data.

So there is really no valid excuse for MarineTraffic? They claim they don't tamper with data, but that's a hollow statement if they don't keep their own protected version of the data they display.

elfin cradle
#

Nope. I wonder if the data is still up att vesselfinder or if they have got a note too to delete records.

#

So there is someone that have asked Marinetraffic to remove the data, the question is who and why. Doubtful it would be the Swedish millitary as they know there are other parties that saves that data. Dont think they are that stupid.

Btw, here are the Dannish AIS data archive, and we can see that they have not modified the files since last year:
http://web.ais.dk/aisdata/

serene grove
#

I also had a theory that marinetraffic may go back through historical data and remove stuff that looks suspect

#

they have a bunch of different receivers feeding into it and if some of them are disagreeing with each other they might just wipe out the data

stark palm
#

and it just so happened to disappear a day after the article was released after having been here for 9 months

stone wadi
daring flume
serene grove
#

iirc in this case it was s-layed in 3 sections, joined on the sea floor, and then filled with water for pressure testing

#

but from your tone I'm going to guess you have some news for me? :p

daring flume
#

no i was just curious if you knew more about nord stream specifically

#

sorry if it came off that way

serene grove
#

but they went into the s-lay stuff somewhere else that I cannot currently find

#

seva mentioned it here

daring flume
#

thanks, i'll give it a read

rustic bay
#

I pinned a post with a library of docs about Nord Stream too, @daring flume

#

If that's helpful:)

strange bane
#

Good article on Russian underwater capabilities.

stark palm
#

Looking into some new NS info. Will give a small update tomorrow if it leads anywhere

#

If anyone wants to help with one of my leads, I am looking for a "ghost ship (AIS off)" hanging out near Danish waters / Bornholm during BALTOPS22. I am fairly certain one of the Russian SIGINT ships was keeping an eye on the exercise not too far away.

strange bane
#

I'm checking if any Russian ships communicated with Danish radar in June 2022.

stark palm
#

If we can find evidence of that, we can at least finally put Hersh to bed

#

As it would mean that the Russian's were looking right at the US while they were "placing the explosives"

#

And still somehow have no evidence

strange bane
#

Couple interesting ships.

#

(For recreation, just ask it to give you all DSC in the last 365 between MID 219 (Denmark) coast stations and MID 273 (Russia) ship stations.)

stark palm
#

It would be the RFS Syzran

strange bane
#

It's MMSI is 273363010.

#

Sadly nothing on Yaddnet.

#

Or maybe that's not it's MMSI.

#

MM is for merchant.

stark palm
#

Think I may have possibly found the culprit behind NS, but need a bit of time to confirm the data.

#

If this pans out, then it explains that the Russia did it, the West knows they did it but can't 100% prove it. Which would make sense looking at other acts of Russian sabotage, like Svalbard. Russia wants the west to know that they did it, but still keep some plausible deniability.

elfin cradle
#

#typical russia

stark palm
#

Waiting on some sat images

elfin cradle
#

If I may ask, when did your suspect ship do sus stuff?
I wanna try to see if I can find something independently of you.

stark palm
#

They were involved I think, but not the culprit themselves

tired monolith
serene grove
#

(I assume they are also trawling for fish...might as well be eating fresh seafood in between doing hot ukrainian diver shit)

molten plume
elfin cradle
#

Next episode of The Shadow war was released this morning. This link should be watchable in the whole world, but no English subtitles afaik.

https://www.svtplay.se/video/e6oaDAk/uppdrag-granskning-skuggkriget/2-de-ryska-spionfartygen?id=e6oaDAk

SVT Play
Uppdrag granskning: Skuggkriget – 2. De ryska spionfartygen

Från ett parkeringshus görs framsteg i spaningsarbetet efter spionerna. Putins utsända har lyckats gömma sig bakom en lögn - fram tills nu. När reportrarna kartlägger ryskflaggade skepp på nordiskt vatten gör de hisnande upptäckter. Fisketrålare visar sig ha en dold agenda och rör sig misstänkt kring kritiska platser. Del 2 av 3.

little zinc
elfin cradle
tired monolith
#

think I saw Sweden kicked out another 5 yesterday

#

this is the Norwegian article in case they are differently angled or have differing information

inland hornet
#

They've checked previous adresses for people connected to the consulate and embassy and identified those who have lived at the GRU conservatory.

harsh rock
stark palm
#

Nothing really interesting related to NS

raw nexus
#

Didn't the satellite pictures bring something new?

stark palm
#

Oh, I meant in the new episode of the documentary

stark palm
#

26 of the 112 photos the P-524 Nymfen took on the 22nd September were of the SS-750

tired monolith
#

mm

#

things seems awfully like they align with some patterns

#

Russian ships just seems to have magnets towards being in certain areas and having transponders off

stark palm
#

I have some more information that I am publishing in the next hour or two

stark palm
elfin cradle
#

Good job!
I wonder if we will soon see a new red herring or a bunch of articles that is again trying to put the blame on the Americans/NATO/phantoms. If that occurs, that means that the Russians are getting nervous.

serene grove
#

sy is gonna have a whole new set of theories in time for the evening shows

tired monolith
#

its 3 main problems if its Russia like it seems like patternwise fits well

#

lack of undeniable proof

#

lack of will to want to have it escalate in the current situation

#

and Russia willing to take more risks because they count on the two prior, thinking that it will cause slower democracies more trouble anyway to act upon it should they be unable to do it "undetected"

limber hinge
#

Oliver
Thanks for your work.

stone wadi
little zinc
#

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1651860434251575298
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1651860444724748288

H I Sutton (@CovertShores)

UPDATE

Thread

Slowly information is coming out about the #Russian Navy ships operating around #NordStream before the attacks. E.g. https://t.co/p7QxtkQ6Lj

The presence of SS-750 with a DSRV submersible is highly suspicious

1/8

Likes

231

Twitter ·
H I Sutton (@CovertShores)

Caveat, I play a small part in those documentaries.

But that’s not why I am promoting them, they really are worth watching for hybrid warfare, espionage and seabed warfare etc

Next episode surely will be Nord Stream. Expect new info

Chair too comfy…

Twitter ·
tired monolith
#

yeah expected that, it seems its has been built up for looking more at nord stream in the last one

exotic shale
stone wadi
#

bah
peaple on twitter complane that Nordic investigatiors dident care about if the NYT published crap

tired monolith
#

?

stone wadi
tired monolith
#

I mean, you can quite quickly glance at that account and find out its not worth spending a calorie on

#

good fait to try, but success rate of getting anywhere is pretty much 0

shut aspen
elfin cradle
#

This is gonna be fun to track:
"Russia’s Baltic Fleet to hold over 30 drills in summer training period
In total, the Russian Baltic Fleet will prepare and improve over 300 facilities for firearms and gunnery training, combat vehicle driving, tactical and special training"

https://tass.com/defense/1612425

TASS
Russia’s Baltic Fleet to hold over 30 drills in summer training per...

In total, the Russian Baltic Fleet will prepare and improve over 300 facilities for firearms and gunnery training, combat vehicle driving, tactical and special training

pure finch
#

Looks like our old pal Minerva Julie may be in dry dock.

Satellite photo is prior to 1 May, so is a different vessel.

Lat: 40.733 Lng:29.503

image.png image.png
stark palm
#

Might have something interesting

stark palm
#

I have been looking into all the subs that Russia operate in the Baltic and been tracking their movements using sat photos and other methods

#

Initially I wanted to see if any were unaccounted for during September 22nd, but it seems like all of them are accounted for that day.

#

Then I remembered something. While the Ufa did its 190m test on October 5th alone, it did the 100m test on September 6th with the Kronstahdt according to Russian MoD press releases

#

It seems like the Latvian navy kept an eye on the September test.

I was thinking. What if the Ufa took a detour and went to the NS pipes. This is the exact same time as the Minerva Julie started circling above the NS site. Doing the test with 2 subs on the 6th September would give one of them some cover if it dissappeared.

#

On the 22nd, Russia could have gone to the NS site again with the SS-750 and other vessels, which are known to support sub operations as a way to "indirectly show it was them". If they stayed far enough away as to not be directly over the site, and having all subs accounted for, it wouldn't be possible to 100% prove it was them.

#

The Swedish Warship that went to investigate on the 22nd also went to look at the 190m Ufa test on the 5th October

tired monolith
#

yeah sounds like a possibility

stark palm
#

Gonna get a more detailed post out tomorrow with all the info

elfin cradle
#

Guestimate, it would only take 8 hours to reach the area submerged. So a mission could been done within a day.
Minerva Julie arrived to the north site the 6th sept (but that is when press release said the test dives were finished). But if the subs were out for a few days more..

stark palm
shut aspen
#

Here is our NS investigation: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/militaer-radiokommunikation-afsloerer-russiske-flaadeskibe-var-paa

Intercepted radio communication reveals how 3 Russian Navy vessels were operating near later Nord Stream explosion sites in June and September last year. They were operating with AIS turned off.

More details in our english spoken podcast Cold Front: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/cold-front/id1683166185

Article in BBC here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65461401

DR
Militær radiokommunikation afslører: Russiske flådeskibe var på mør...

Russiske flådefartøjer opererede mindst tre gange i området omkring de senere eksplosionssteder. I et af tilfældene få dage før sprængningerne, viser nye oplysninger.

Apple Podcasts
‎Cold Front on Apple Podcasts

‎Society & Culture · 2023

BBC News
Nord Stream: Report puts Russian navy ships near pipeline blast site

A documentary reports Russian naval ships were located near the site of the Nord Stream explosions.

stark palm
shut aspen
#

Yes.

Two options according to our research:
Project 862 Yug Class - Hydrographic Survey Vessel
Or
Project 503R Alpinist-class

elfin cradle
#

Do we have any estimated length of the ship from SAR?
If Yug class its Nikolai Matusevich, if Alpinist its Zhigulevsk or Syzran (most likley).

elfin cradle
stark palm
elfin cradle
#

Ty.

strange bane
#

Did Oliver post a navigation chart website here recently

#

Looking for it and can't find it

stark palm
strange bane
#

Thank you 🙂

limber hinge
#

FWIW
OpenCPN is a free chart VIEWER that is arguably the best available. It runs on Ubuntu and can be loaded on a PC or Android. OCPN is really a full on chart plotter and will monitor NEMA data streams to display various data points including AIS.

The CHARTS are available through this link
https://www.o-charts.org/?lng=en-US
Denmark is €25
Sweeden is €48

little zinc
#

@shut aspen quick question: will there be a international/non-nordic release or english subtitled/dubbed version of the tv-series?

inner sandal
inner sandal
pure finch
# inner sandal Ukraine and Poland did it. That's the suggestion in this article for The Nation ...

Apart from anything else, that story seems like it might need an editor, "then it is revealing", "Washington's defining silence".

So many of the stories seem to take one or two points and run with them, based on the given author's bias, instead of exploring the whole confusing mess.

The first rupture point was on Nord Stream 2 just off Bornholm Island—on the exact segment of the pipeline built by Russia’s Fortuna: the same area repeatedly targeted by the Polish air and sea vessels

I mean, great - so what about the main cluster of explosions further north?

limber hinge
#

I am told the NY Times has finally picked up on the Russian sub support ship story. A week late but ....

serene grove
#

it would be very interesting to hear about the decision making process they went through

eager moss
# pure finch Apart from anything else, that story seems like it might need an editor, "then i...

it would assist the authors of various published articles if the basic facts on which they build their argument were correct. In this instance, one such example is that the vessel that installed the Nordstream 2-A pipeline in the vicinity of the rupture was not the 'Fortuna', it was the Akademik Cherskyi. The Akademik is a dynamically positioned DP3 vessel, not an anchored vessel. The Fortuna (which is a custom built but anchored pipelay vessel) commenced installation of the NS2-A pipeline about 17 kilometres to the west of the rupture location after the Akademik was removed from the work. Whilst there were complaints about the Fortuna being 'harassed' I haven't seen any reports about actual interference with anchoring. Just one example.

inner sandal
# eager moss it would assist the authors of various published articles if the basic facts on ...

There's a link at the end of Bamford's article where readers can request corrections https://www.thenation.com/corrections?title=The+Nord+Stream+Explosions%3A+New+Revelations+About+Motive%2C+Means%2C+and+Opportunity&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenation.com%2Farticle%2Fworld%2Fnord-stream-pipeline-explosions%2F

The Nation
Corrections

Corrections The form below enables readers to submit corrections. To submit a letter to the editor, click here. If you need customer service click here or

shut aspen
stark palm
hushed bay
serene grove
#

there's still no explanation for the Minerva Julie weirdness right? I remember speculation about whether vessels typically wander around an area like that and the conclusion was something like "either ridiculously bad seamanship or suspicious"... still no reasonable excuse identified right?

#

having it for hydrophone cover seems super likely with that ~9 hour difference Oliver is estimating between the sub leaving and the ship leaving

#

especially since that area is generally deserted when it comes to noisy shipping traffic

#

(judging by the heat maps some folks made a few weeks ago)

stark palm
serene grove
#

yeah...that was all I could think of, like if I had a hydrophone network trying to track subs the last thing I would want is a giant tanker making tanker sounds up top

#

especially if it's randomly going around the area so you can never get a good fix on how it echoes

stark palm
#

Everyone I have talked to has told me that you would never drift like that for a week. Maybe 24 hours, but not a week. The only way you would do that would be if the crew kept getting updates like “we will have a new destination for you tomorrow morining/few hours”

serene grove
#

when they get held up it's usually waiting for a berth near their destination port right?

#

so they have like standard waiting areas where they can anchor and stuff

#

which is the complete opposite of hanging out in deep water above a bunch of pipes

stark palm
#

It would be pretty easy to put it in a situatuon like that with minimal Minerva involvment.

Just have the refinery cancel as it entered the strait, that location would be the first one where they could hold.

#

Then just have the refinery keep stringing them along until it was done.

serene grove
#

that's the last piece of the picture for me tbh...the crew clearly wasn't in on it or someone would have said something

stark palm
#

I would love to have been able to get information on what the Minerva Julie’s destination was when it left Rotterdam and if it was the same refinery as it ended up going to in St petersburg

serene grove
#

does avoiding the EEZ around bornholm fit in with that though? like if they had to hold would they have a reason to drift way offshore instead of just coming closer and anchoring near the island?

tired monolith
#

yeah it could be that it was used as a pawn, but the holding pattern itself makes no sense unless you have a purpose to being there. But I am sure most boat captains can be convinced for a few days if they are mislead to do some ultra stupid shit - as long as they are getting paid anyway

serene grove
#

looking at the timelapse it's really clear that they were allergic to the EEZ, any time they got close they were like NOPE

stark palm
#

because the two previous trips the Minerva Julie went to a different refinery than it did on this trip

serene grove
#

a little bit more polite than calling the crew useful idiots hahaha

#

I can't imagine the folks working on board were happy to hang out in that stretch of sea at that time of year though

#

it had to have raised some questions right?

#

but if you're getting paid by the day and you get told to spend more days getting somewhere...yeah, I guess nobody would really complain

velvet rain
velvet rain
elfin cradle
#

Its only RUMINT without any evidence whatsoever that Minerva Julie had it crew changed right after it arrived to port after its weird drifting?

strange bane
strange bane
#

It dropped anchor outside of Tallinn for six hours.

#

At-sea crew changes are pretty standard in the tanker industry, and were broadly common in the merchant industry up until recently due to annoying Covid regulations.

#

But yes, RUMINT

limber hinge
#

RUMINT?

serene grove
#

rumor intel

limber hinge
#

TY

strange bane
#

They are pretty standard for tankers because of the annoying regulations countries put on tankers calling. It’s cheaper to pay for a boat than the entire pain in the butt of needing to hire a pilot, pay higher berthing fees, etc just to drop crew off.

#

Also to answer the obvious question, “why couldn’t they do it when they got to Russia” Westerners (and the lack of transport links that are traditionally used for other nationalities to get home) obviously can’t crew change in Russia, so stopping off in Tallinn before you enter the terrorist state obviously makes sense

limber hinge
#

The Captain MAY have had some inkling, or more specific orders.
Otherwise someone shoreside would have needed to monitor their position and give guidance.
In any case someone shoreside did give orders which were at best a bit weird and would have caused questions.
So another line of questioning would be to look up that line of command. Also, this week delay cost a fair bit of money; crew, fuel, provisions, if nothing else. Someone paid for that.

serene grove
#

good luck following the money on international shipping...it's convoluted on purpose

#

chain of command though...I believe there were records that showed who the designated person ashore was?

#

as far as I know the whole thing is a dead end except for the time+place "coincidence"...everything paperwork wise seemed normal (unless oliver has got some extra cards in his pocket :p)

strange bane
#

GDPR

#

Maybe if a Minerva ship has had an accident that has a report in recent times you might get some names to research

#

But on the flip side, often times people just get described as their age, sex and nationality

stark palm
velvet rain
#

All destination broadcast changes in September:

# 
destination change to 'RUULU' at 03/09/2022 16:04:55
destination change to '' at 04/09/2022 00:03:32
destination change to 'RUULU' at 04/09/2022 00:10:55
destination change to '' at 05/09/2022 00:00:02
destination change to 'RUULU' at 05/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 06/09/2022 00:00:01
destination change to 'RUULU' at 06/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 07/09/2022 00:00:04
destination change to 'RUULU' at 07/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 08/09/2022 00:00:04
destination change to 'RUULU' at 08/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 09/09/2022 00:00:02
destination change to 'RUULU' at 09/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to 'FOR  ORDERS' at 09/09/2022 08:08:38
destination change to '' at 10/09/2022 00:00:03
destination change to 'FOR  ORDERS' at 10/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 11/09/2022 00:00:04
destination change to 'FOR  ORDERS' at 11/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 12/09/2022 00:00:04
destination change to 'FOR  ORDERS' at 12/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to '' at 13/09/2022 00:00:04
destination change to 'FOR  ORDERS' at 13/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to 'EE TLL' at 13/09/2022 08:06:00
destination change to '' at 23/09/2022 11:31:25
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERS' at 23/09/2022 11:40:55
destination change to '' at 24/09/2022 00:00:06
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERS' at 24/09/2022 00:04:55
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERP' at 24/09/2022 09:04:55
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERS' at 24/09/2022 09:10:55
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERP' at 24/09/2022 14:52:55
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERS' at 24/09/2022 14:58:55
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERP' at 24/09/2022 19:16:55
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERS' at 24/09/2022 19:22:55
destination change to '' at 25/09/2022 00:00:05
destination change to 'TURKEY FOR ORDERS' at 25/09/2022 00:04:55
#

This is obviously incomplete due to the limited range of the Danish AIS dataset.

stark palm
#

If I remember correctly Ust-Luga is also basically owned by Putin’s son in law

limber hinge
#

@serene grove
Yes, I just mentioned it as the only additional path I could think of.
I BELIEVE the Captain has some dedicated person ashore who he reports to, and receives orders from, or is at least a "hot line for help" in event of emergency.
I would expect the Captain, if not the crew manifest, to be held in the public domain.
The Insurance Company would require the shoreside support person, and that name may be in the public domain.
And the ships Agents would have to have some knowledge of such sailing orders.
At a minimum those persons may have some knowledge of Minerva's orders and how they were dispersed. A one time set "hover over these coordinates for 7 days" or if they were updated daily.
Someone in that chain knows something, more likely a few know something.
How to get them to talk I don't know.
There is a guy who runs a blog called gCaptain, John Konrad. He was a professional Captain and has many links into the culture. He may have some insight.
https://gcaptain.com/russia-sabotage-ships/

gCaptain
John Konrad
Does Russia Have A Fleet Of Sabotage Ships?

New allegations have emerged via the BBC suggesting that Russia has a program to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea. The joint investigation by public broadcasters...

strange bane
#

The Designated Person Ashore is a role required by the International Safety Management Code (ISM Code) to provide the crew with an off-ship person responsible for ensuring that the ship is managed and operated safely.

#

Basically it makes someone on land responsible for writing up SOPs, doing accident/incident/near miss reports and providing the ship with the necessary safety equipment/PPE.

#

If a person was just a DPA, they'd have no reason to be telling the ship to do anything operations wise, whilst they might have a maritime background, it could be literally anyone.

#

The role you're thinking of would be Marine Superintendent, which is usually held by a former maritime officer, either deck or engineering. It would be less weird for them to be involved (to a limited extent) in operations.

#

Sometimes the Marine Superintendent can be double hatted as the DPA.

limber hinge
#

SaraL
Thanks for clarifying.
I was just trying to find people who may have some info on Minerva's real time movements. There is some Chain Command.
Trying to look through the keyhole.

elfin cradle
little zinc
#

https://twitter.com/wdrinvestigativ/status/1660315684004323328 https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-andromeda-ukraine-russland-100.html

WDR Investigativ (@WDRinvestigativ)

Exklusiv: Beim #Nordstream-Anschlag prüfen deutsche Ermittler offenbar eine neue Spur. Sie führt nach Recherchen von NDR, WDR, SZ und internationalen Medienpartnern in ukrainische Militärkreise.#Ukraine #Russland @manuelbewarder @FlorianFlade @schmitt_jrg

Twitter ·
tagesschau.de
Anschlag auf Pipelines: Neue Spur führt offenbar in die Ukraine

Es gilt als eines der größten Rätsel: Wer hat den Anschlag auf die Nord-Stream-Pipelines verübt? Nach Informationen von NDR, WDR und SZ gehen Ermittler einer neuen Spur nach. Sie führt offenbar zu einem Ukrainer.

stark palm
#

Andromeda continues to be a strange as hell story

hidden lotus
inner sandal
stark palm
#

All of this still doesn’t answer the most pressing of questions around Andromeda:

  • How did they get the large amount of explosives into Germany
  • How did thet get it into the water
  • How did they avoid detection by the Minerva Julie, German, US, Swedish, Danish and Russian navies all operating in the area
  • Why would thry choose the most difficult locations to perform the dives
inner sandal
#

Can someone explain how the Ukrainian soldier comes into the story? It's not clear from the stuff that isnt paywalled.

tidal knoll
# inner sandal Can someone explain how the Ukrainian soldier comes into the story? It's not cle...

"But there is another lead from the "Andromeda" - German security authorities actually see it as explosive, since it is supposed to lead to Ukrainian military circles: When renting the yacht, at least some of the people who will later travel by boat on the Baltic Sea should were, have presented passports. According to the research, one of them was a Romanian passport, issued in the name of "Stefan M.".

Ukrainian citizen?
A person with this name and date of birth is said to actually exist, but according to the findings of the BKA, he was probably in Romania at the time of the explosions. But then who was the man who appeared on the Baltic Sea? After research by WDR, NDR, SZ and media partners, German investigators believe it could be a Ukrainian national: a man in his mid-20s from a town south-east of Kiev. His name is known to the reporting team.

Photos on social networks show a young man, often smiling, sometimes in a military uniform with a helmet - and with eye-catching tattoos. The young Ukrainian is said to have previously served in an infantry unit. Investigators are apparently following other names and clues. It should be the hottest tracks so far.

Only one of the young man's relatives can be reached on the phone: she says he is currently serving in the military. Sometimes he calls. But she says: He didn't leave Ukraine last fall. Official Ukrainian bodies have not yet responded to inquiries."

inner sandal
#

So the person with the Romanian passport was a Ukrainian soldier? If so, what's the evidence?

tidal knoll
#

From the tagesschau piece.

lean dock
stark palm
#

more info here

tidal knoll
#

I think what they're suggesting is that the Ukrainian was passing himself off as the Romanian citizen.

stark palm
#

supposedly his social media hasn’t been updated since 2017 and he was a member of “Ukrainian Nationalist group”

#

I have a hard time not seeing this as extremely convenient.

No one seems to be able to explain any of the technical details of how the Andromeda could pull this off

But the evidence left behind:

  • explosive residue
  • A paper trail to a polish shell company run by a Ukrainian
  • A passport that links back to what I am going to assume will be an Azov “nazi”
#

It sure is a convenient set of evidence that has been found.

tidal knoll
#

It says he followed a 'Ukrainian nationalist group' on social media. That's a bit thin.

You should see the ones I follow on tg...

elfin cradle
#

"The Russian ships observed in the area of ​​the sabotage in the months before the explosions are no longer considered interesting by the German investigators."

SUS

#

still believes that German intelligence is infiltrated by Russians, and they are totally incompetent

#

huh, Russian news has REALLY jumped on this article.
Just googling Feeria Lwowa, and almost all results are from Russian news sites only.

Ukrainsk_soldat_ett_av_sparen_efter_sabotaget_mot__20230521_0810PM_09581.png
inner sandal
#

I'm still leaning towards the idea that Andromeda was a deliberate false trail. It could also turn into an politically convenient scapegoat.

stark palm
lean dock
lean dock
lean dock
inner sandal
lean dock
stark palm
inner sandal
lean dock
elfin cradle
lean dock
#

but i mean, if we have a date of birth, that would be very interesting.

inner sandal
stark palm
#

The Russian reaction is interesting

lean dock
stark palm
#

First time the Andromeda was mentioned, Russia ignored it completely and focused on Hersh.

Now they are all jumping on it.

#

Russia is usually good at attempting to muddy the waters when things are closing in.

elfin cradle
#

Even the Russian understand how unbelievable Hersh is.

velvet rain
# lean dock what? source?

This has been discussed extensively here. If you want to read up on the discussion and the sources, I recommend searching this channel for things like "birthday".

elfin cradle
# stark palm Russia is usually good at attempting to muddy the waters when things are closing...

This statement goes against the proof we have from DK navy, how are they so sure of this?

"The Russian ships observed in the area of ​​the sabotage in the months before the explosions are no longer considered interesting by the German investigators.
According to sources, the Russian ships have been able to be excluded from the investigation – their positions have been mapped and the conclusion must be that they have not been in such a place that they could have carried out the deed."

lean dock
velvet rain
#

The articles mentioned that this had been discussed in intelligence circles. That is all we know.

elfin cradle
stark palm
elfin cradle
stark palm
#

Several sources have mentioned the presence of a Russian submarine prior to the blasts.

Denmark’s lack of any real ability to detect submerged contacts has been a hot button issue in Danish defense politics for years.

#

Sweden is very secretive about their hydrophone arrays and if evidence was picked up with these that could explain their desire to keep their investigation separate from Denmark and Germany.

#

The Ufa which was not yet in service and crewed by a highly skilled acceptance crew just so happens to be unaccoutned for for 7 days just prior to the explosions just as the Minerva Julie loitered above the sabotage sites.

#

Also coincidentally at the exact same time as the Andromeda was supposed to be at the site

inner sandal
stark palm
#

What if the explosives were never on the Andromeda, but the divers were.

Explosives were deployed by the Ufa, but divers from the Andromeda were used to work on them.

The Ufa lacks a real way of retrieving divers at 80m. This would place explosive residue on the Andromeda while avoiding the problems of getting the explosivea into Germany and onto/off the Andromeda

stark palm
lean dock
#

it is a problem for me, for you and most people to get professional explosives for pipelines, pipeline divers, good faked passports, ... - for all those people formerly and currently involved with state parties, miltaries, militias, and often also the gas and oil business, those things are not really a problem. they have those capabilities.

#

and i mean, anyway the only "problematic" border would be ukraine/poland, if the explosives came from ukraine. after that the chances to get into a deep control with unloading or x-ray is very unlikely.

#

in a good semi, it is close to zero to be checked.

stark palm
lean dock
#

i mean, if i would try to smuggle them from ukraine to germany, i would give myself clearly a two digit percentage to succeed. i see no scandal there if it happened.

#

most semis are never checked in depth.

#

and anyway, "entered germany" would not be remarkable at all, there are open borders. only the eu-border would be more interesting.

stark palm
#

There are a lot of steps involved in acquiring and smuggling this amount of explosives.

No one is acquiring hundreds of kilos of military grade explosives in Europe without several intelligence agencies being on top of them

#

at the same time no one is skimming hundreds of kilos of demolitions grade explosives off the top without a similar thing happening

lean dock
stark palm
#

There is a reason that in the last decade terrorist attacks in Europe have mainly been commited with knives and vehicles.

lean dock
lean dock
# stark palm There is a reason that in the last decade terrorist attacks in Europe have mainl...

it is not the reason that it is very difficult to acquire or make explosives, no. i mean, i studied that a while ago, and i made some myself (officially, in a university lab). if i wanted to make a large amount of explosives, i could do that. i have the knowledge and lab practice, and i know how buying raw products works. and i am not special with that, there are tens or hundreds of thousands of people in germany with that knowledge.

and if you don't care to survive, like most terrorists don't - well, it is much easier and you could cut some corners.

#

we are pretty lucky that most terrorists are idiots.

#

a halfway smart terrorist would be a big problem. and we saw that e.g. with breivik or oklahoma.

#

also most terrorists don't have good funding.

elfin cradle
#

All plastic explosives are tagged. But there was some 600 tons of untagged Semtex that went to Ghadaffi in the 80s and a few tons later showed up in the hands of IRA and ETA in the 90s.
But afaik blasting explosives as ANFO, gelatine dosnt need taggend as they already emitt easy detectable molecules.

lean dock
#

no dna or sophisticated chemical tagging?

stark palm
#

There is a significant difference between “homemade” explosives like ANFO and military grade explosives.

It has been hinted several times by the investigators that military grade explosives were used.

lean dock
lean dock
stark palm
#

Luckily for Russia, many state level actors have access to Soviet explosives making tagging in this case not perticularly useful

raw nexus
elfin cradle
# lean dock no dna or sophisticated chemical tagging?

Only chemical tagging so dogs can detect it and it shows better up on X-ray.
It has long been talking about the posibilty about doping it with some diffrent metal mixtures depending on month and year there were made in, but I dont think it never became for that.

lean dock
tidal knoll
raw nexus
stark palm
#

interesting bit from one of the articles:

"We have a really good picture of how and what happened on site and how it was done," says Mats Ljungqvist.

#

Which is interesting because Sweden is running their own investigstion

#

and I haven’t seen much that suggests they are also deeply involved in the Danish/German Andromeda investigation

elfin cradle
# stark palm interesting bit from one of the articles: "We have a really good picture of how...

However we are not going to get any attribution on WHO did it from the Swedish investigation as the scope of reach is:
"if Swedish interest or Swedish security is threatened, for example if Swedish territory was used to carry out the sabotage."
If the answer is: No, they wont say anything on why may have done it. So I think we are going to get disappointed by the Swedes, as usual.

raw nexus
elfin cradle
#

Basically the OPCW report-issue that they were not allowed to do any attribution, only to investigate if there had been chemical weapons used in syria or not.

stark palm
#

The guy’s tattoos are gothic rune tattoos

elfin cradle
lean dock
elfin cradle
lean dock
tired monolith
#

you just need to follow the natural logic, US and Norway colluded to both profit from selling fossil fuel så they wanted to sabotage the pipes 😉

elfin cradle
#

Hersh weird tangent.

No but the Norwegian oil industry are used to have deep divers and saturation divers. There is a really good report on that and they just basically experimented on the divers as the effect of thoes kind of pressures on the human bodies was unknown.

tired monolith
#

ye def have more of the expertise on that in the region, just lacks all other logical connections

elfin cradle
#

Well if you read Hersh between the lines it was Norwegian divers as they have alot of experience of that, and that they would earn money on selling even more gas to the EU (not that he talks about that as motive but that is basically the rest of that narrative why norway would be involved)

#

But Norwegian gas exports to the EU last year only increased 3.3% lol

tired monolith
#

yeah Norway is absolutely maxed, there isnt more to sell

#

would need new discoveries and the time to build production to accomplish much beyond whats already done to squeeze out a litle more

#

and they are trying to limit further development in fossil in general so not really going all in on fossil profiting compared to most of the big fossil producers

raw nexus
lean dock
#

also, actually i think, if you could chose people, the best divers for this are professional pipeline maintenance or building offshore divers.

tidal knoll
lean dock
#

beside what you said, and that ns was anyway dead at that point in time already.

tired monolith
#

yeah, theres certainly good reasons why people dislike the pipelines

#

but they were already not delivering gas, so what upside is it to risk destroying it from the European side

elfin cradle
tired monolith
lean dock
# elfin cradle "US did it to sell Gas to EU and increase the Schism between Germany and the NAT...

that sounds all just like bullshit. if i go by interests, there is russia - far above everbody else, and then none-state actors.

for russia there is indeed much to say, also that only 3 of the pipes were destroyed, and suspiciously just one of ns2 was left intact, and well, according to eu-regulations gasprom can only use 50% of the capacity and ns2 gas has to be sold much more expensive than ns1 gas, the old contract would have been done with that. but that also only makes sense.

on the other hand russia also had an interest to be out of the contracts by force majeure. which is btw. also true for germany, and if you look just at state actors and a motivation, i would put germany at the second place.

elfin cradle
tired monolith
#

besides potential damage by getting caught red handed seems to me like much bigger than the potential upside in a non producing pipeline

elfin cradle
lean dock
elfin cradle
#

What would Germany gain?

tired monolith
#

would be very un-German way I think, also their problem with it staying whole would be what? that Russia suddenly decides to ship gas again?

lean dock
# elfin cradle What would Germany gain?

force majeure and ending the contract with russia by that, without having any legal obligations anymore. germany had contracts with russia that it has to pay for a base level of gas if it takes it or not.

(also silencing all the idiots which wanted to turn it on again.)

lean dock
elfin cradle
lean dock
#

it clearly has spared germany from probably decades long legal struggles.

tired monolith
#

well yea, but if they wanted out by force they could just wait - a non issue if its not in use anyway

lean dock
lean dock
elfin cradle
#

If NS wasnt bombed, Gazprom risked to pay out up to 10-15% of the whole Russian international currency reserve..

#

THAT would hurt the Russian economy for years.

lean dock
tired monolith
#

yeah, major upside to the Russian side even if it wasnt producing if you know it was doomed anyway

#

and this happened after quite a few months, by the time Russia would have to be very aware Europe would not easily restore operation anytime soon, if ever - at least when it comes to fossil

elfin cradle
#

This is Russias curency resrves, think that 50% is under sanctions and locked out for them in western countries.
So if they had to pay libabilty over multi year contracts (speculation on how much the libability clause works but if its 5 years contract and lets say 11B/y) and they loose 60B of 300B, that would make Putin very sad.

International_Reserves_of_the_Russian_Federation__20230521_1021PM_05001.png
tired monolith
#

looks like energy prices are starting to notice more renewable production too

#

negative system prices today

dire canyon
#

I wish we had a smart charger, because now I always have to manually set our car to charge at the right times 😦

tired monolith
#

from what I recall when it was cheap gas it would drop during the night - now it looks like its in the middle of day when solar / wind / hydro is at high capacity

dire canyon
#

Yup, I've noticed that.

tired monolith
#

but yea not going to be a fossil rush back to Russia anytime soon I think with how it looks so letting NS stay operational seems like it really would only negatively affect Russia in current situation

lean dock
strange bane
#

NS1 also has a quite diverse ownership

#

It's 51% Russian, 49% various German, Dutch and French utility companies.

#

NS2 by contrast is 100% Gazprom

#

Just as a total aside, I remember reading/watching a documentary on Russian spying in Europe, perhaps it was even a Dutch one on the OPCW shenanigans and whatnot

#

But my understanding is there's a specific Russian passport office which issues basically all the spy passports (in addition to the passports to Depardieu, Seagal and their related moronic ilk)

#

Is there any significance to passport office 8012?

vague meteor
strange bane
#

The ASDS has been out of service since 2008.

#

They went back to the SDV whilst a new design is being developed.

#

As for fact checking the rest of it, it's all conjecture. Submarines don't operate on the surface and with the U.S. Navy's nuclear fleet they are stay submerged for months, it's unprovable whether they were there or not.

serene grove
#

I'm gonna guess I'm not the only person having trouble seeing that tweet on my main acct lmao

image.png
#

(he doesn't like it when people fact check his tweets)

strange bane
#

I will say that U.S. Navy submarines, at least publicly, only end up in the Baltic Sea very rarely.

#

It's been a couple years since they did.

#

Like, it's exceptionally rare.

#

They prefer to dock in Faslane, or Norway (or the Netherlands super occasionally)

#

Also...

#

"radar data"

#

"radar evidence"

#

I'd expect someone who is somehow the guy you want for the super sensitive naval submarine capability development project, but doesn't to know what radar is, and that ADS-B isn't radar.

#

Also for example...

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1660421021793652736

Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom)

At this juncture, the Poseidon had completed the first part of its mission, confirming the detonation of the explosives. It then flew over land near Miastko and rendezvoused with a US Air Force Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker for in-air refueling at 1:20 am UTC on September 26. The…

Likes

414

Retweets

105

Twitter ·
#

This looping around isn't just random, and it's entirely explainable.

#

The plane is just going around and around the PL 1 corridor.

#

Which are the general duty regions for AWACS aircraft over Poland, of which a P-8 sniffing around activity in Kaliningrad would be orbiting.

#

Essentially, it's all nonsense, easily disgarded.

serene grove
#

it drives me nuts but ADS-B is often referred to as "secondary radar" even though it's technically incorrect (should be "secondary surveillance")

#

iirc originally the point was to do altitude correction without using GPS...so basically you use ADS-B for vertical positioning, combine that with omnidirectional rangefinding from your primary radar, and you get the 3D position

#

so it was thought of as a secondary signal that increases the accuracy of your primary radar

#

(even though the altitude data is reported by the aircraft as fed by its barometer, not observed by radar)

strange bane
#

Suggesting a submarine is convenient in a conspiracy

#

Because ultimately, there's no way of proving it.

#

Even if you want to go counting US/NATO submarines in their homeport, there's always going to be a couple out doing something.

#

It proves nothing in any major way.

serene grove
#

oh yeah I'm not arguing with that, my point is that if someone is calling ADS-B "radar" it's not necessarily because they don't know what they're talking about, just some portions of aviation culture call it that

strange bane
#

Sure sure.

tired monolith
# strange bane Suggesting a submarine is convenient in a conspiracy

reminded me of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvAueVn6Fzo

YouTube
The Operations Room
Soviet Nuclear Submarine Defects to the United States, 1984 - Animated

In 1984, a deadly new Soviet Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarine leaves Murmansk and heads out into the North Atlantic. The entire Soviet Navy is looking for her, with orders to sink the brand new vessel. Fearing a rogue Captain is about to launch nuclear weapons against the United States, the President deploys the US Navy into the Atlantic as w...

▶ Play video
serene grove
#

(I love how after a month or two the release date is now just shown as "1mo ago")

#

"For a man born in the Soviet Union, her captain has a very distinct Scottish accent"

tired monolith
#

yeah its a bit more covert now when more time have passed - but I could easily see this just as easily could have been basis for a conspiracy exactly for that reason - that theres so much uncertainty and lack of proof tied to subs

serene grove
#

thankfully nobody went all trump arrest images with this one

strange bane
#

It's obviously why using submarines is what you would use if you didn't want to be caught.

#

Looks to be the picture that the reports are pixelating out.

raw nexus
stark palm
stark palm
#

found another account that could belong to him. Also stopped being active in 2017. Basically it just reposted stuff from a group call “Uber Alles”

inner sandal
strange bane
# inner sandal I've summarised the latest Andromeda developments here ... https://medium.com/@b...

“In the same year, the company also changed owners. The new owner is a 32-year-old woman from the city of Kerch on the occupied Crimean peninsula. In the Polish company documents, she has used her Ukrainian passport — but our review of Russian databases shows that the woman changed her name several years ago and now also has Russian citizenship. She works for a Russian authority in the city. On a Ukrainian war criminals website, she is listed as a traitor because of her collaboration with the occupying power

#

So “Ukrainian”

#

If this was the “Ukrainian company owners” that the reporting 2 months back was about, if they knew the identities, reporting them as “Ukrainian owners” is kinda disingenuous.

tidal knoll
#

Also, she's listed on, I assume, Myrotvorets.

strange bane
#

Obviously they are Ukrainian by nationality, but they certainly aren’t on Ukraine’s side in the conflict.

strange bane
#

So this is the picture they are saying is him.

limber hinge
#

FWIW
It strikes me as no coincidence that some spurious report splashes at about the same time as the counter offensive is about to launch. Ukraine "news" is all over the place with speculation and this "report" just adds to the noise.
Psyops likely, just adding to the fog of war.

hushed bay
#

Hey @strange bane Im deleting these pics and that VK link

strange bane
#

Fair enough

hushed bay
#

If a legitimate news org reports on this, please feel free to link to that report

#

But otherwise please don't link to people's personal accounts

strange bane
#

It’s the picture from the reporting

hushed bay
#

Where's the link?

#

And who de-pixelated the picture and linked his VK?

strange bane
#

Well, they pixelated the picture in their reporting. I found discussions on Twitter about the picture that led me to the VK.

hushed bay
#

Ah ok

#

Thanks for clarifying

#

Yeah please don't add the VK link or the depixelated pic

strange bane
#

Cool cool.

elfin cradle
#

TASS in Russian, translated:

"The head of intelligence of Germany said that not a single special service knows who blew up the Nord Stream

According to Bruno Kahl, the investigation is being carried out "in different directions", the work of forensic specialists is complicated by the fact that the place of sabotage is on the seabed

BERLIN, 22 May. /TASS/. The head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) of Germany, Bruno Kahl, claims that not a single intelligence service can at the moment unequivocally name those responsible for undermining the Nord Stream. He announced this on Monday, speaking at the Federal Academy of Security Policy.

"No country, no special service in the world is now able to attribute this to anyone in particular," he said. "Maybe this will change, there are noticeable successes in the investigation." Kahl recalled that the place of sabotage is on the seabed, which significantly complicates the work of forensics.

According to him, the investigation is being carried out "in different directions." "I do not rule out that success will follow, which will make one of the options more likely, and others less," the head of the BND added."

strange bane
limber hinge
strange bane
# strange bane

Also you can identify the two people in this picture by searching the Polish business records

#

I don't want to name them, but through the business records of the woman with a name starting with N, you can identify a connection to a second company called BB "Aero" Limited

#

Whose customers are apparently biochemicist Giles E. Hardingham

gr1-1.png
#

BBC Radio Lancashire presenter Leanne Bayes

gr2.png
#

Likewise...

image.png
#

52.2375214, 21.0314754

#

BB Aero is also based out a virtual front office, this time in Krakow

#

All very suspect, a web of virtual front offices (which provide a fake address to 100s of companies), one of the directors living in Kerch, having taken up Russian passport and working for the Russian occupation authorities.

strange bane
#

This should surely be geolocatable.

#

maybe a little better quality

FwqhLKTWYAIQ7jd.png
inner sandal
strange bane
hushed bay
# inner sandal Is there some reason why "the woman with a name starting with N" can't be named?...

We have rules against doxxing and against conducting research "in public" here in the server out of a concern that during the research process, you may mis-identify the person that you're researching. This happens all the time as part of the research process, but it's one thing to mis-identify someone in your research notes that no one else will see, and do it in a public setting like this which could have real-life repercussions for that person(s).

strange bane
hushed bay
#

Yes, if their name has been reported in a reputable news agency, then you can link to it and mention the person's name.

Imagine that the NYT publishes and article saying that someone named "Rick Johnson" has been arrested on suspicion of being a terrorist. Linking to the article is fine, and saying, "Some guy named Rick Johnson got arrested!" is OK.

What we do not want people to do here is look for every "Rick Johnson" on Facebook and post their Facebook profiles here, or their White Pages info, etc. Because chances are that most or all of those people are not going to be the Rick Johnson in the article.

In other words, finding and posting personal info on people you think are the same Rick Johnson as the one in the article is what we don't want people to do here.

strange bane
#

https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2023/05/21/16738748.shtml

Газета.Ru
Фирма-однодневка с украинскими корнями. В деле о взрывах на «Северн...

По крайней мере двое украинцев могут быть причастны к взрывам на газопроводах «Северный поток» и «Северный поток - 2», пишет газета Süddeutsche Zeitung. По результатам расследования удалось выяснить, что германские следователи еще несколько месяцев назад наткнулись на польское турагентство Feeria Lwowa, которое принадлежит двум украинкам. Именно...

#

This is the article.

hushed bay
inner sandal
#

The "N" woman is named in public documents relating to her company's registration.

strange bane
#

Nice write up though 🙂

little zinc
inner sandal
#

I've added a bit to the BB Aero story. The firm's website is remarkably similar to Feeria Lwawa's now-deleted website. Both firms boast of the same fake customers, though Feeria gives them Polish names

Fw-jI_MXwAA9pOU.jpg
raw nexus
#

That has money laundry vibes

strange bane
#

Oh, there’s a deleted Feera Lwowa website?

raw nexus
#

They used a Gmail account instead a mail attached to the webpage.

strange bane
#

Is there any connection to a Western European business in these

elfin cradle
#

Hmm, I dont think the new Nord Stream "development" worked as well as Russia had hoped for, nor Kahl's statement.

`"On May 25, the ambassadors of Germany, Denmark and Sweden were summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry, who were strongly protested in connection with the complete lack of results of the national investigations allegedly carried out by the authorities of these countries of sabotage at Nord Stream in September 2022, their inability to ensure transparency investigative actions," the department said.

They stressed that Moscow stated the lack of interest of Germany, Denmark and Sweden in establishing the true circumstances of this sabotage. “On the contrary, by their actions they are clearly dragging out time and trying to hide the traces of the true culprits of the crime, which, as we think, are well-known countries. At the same time, it is no coincidence that “leaks” of implausible versions are dumped in the media with a desire to confuse the situation,” the Foreign Ministry said. . They also indicated that Moscow will continue to press the authorities of these countries to conduct an "objective comprehensive investigation of sabotage" with the obligatory involvement of Russia.

Moscow considers unacceptable the attempts of the authorities of Germany, Denmark and Sweden to evade interaction with the Russian side on the issue of the investigation. The three states continue to ignore the notes of the Russian embassies, as well as calls from the Russian government to organize an open investigation.

On Monday, the head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) of Germany, Bruno Kahl, said that not a single intelligence service can at the moment unequivocally name those responsible for undermining the Nord Stream. `

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/17841505

inner sandal
#

I've been looking at the captures of the Feeria Lwowa website by Wayback. Interestingly, the last capture before the site disappeared was on Sept 29 last year. An attempted capture on June 5 last year returned a 503 error.

captures.png
little zinc
#

another one from german media pushing the andromeda-lead: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-anschlaege-hinweise-auf-ukrainische-taeter-verdichten-sich-a-b176fd6b-1258-47dc-99bb-6e9db544908e
archived: https://archive.ph/SAyyE

(S+) Nord-Stream-Anschläge: Hinweise auf ukrainische Täter verdicht...

Wer hat die Nord-Stream-Pipelines gesprengt? Ermittler verfolgen neue Spuren – nach SPIEGEL-Informationen zeigen sie nicht nur für westliche Geheimdienste in eine Richtung.

archive.ph
Nord-Stream-Anschläge: Hinweise auf ukrainische Täter verdichten si...

archived 26 May 2023 12:06:14 UTC

little zinc
stark palm
#

Octogen has a relatvie effectiveness of 1.7, so it would be 294kg charges instead of 500kg

#

Hardly a “small charge”

#

also good luck getting Octogen on the black market without Mossad showing up.

tired monolith
#

perhaps they are expanding more into fiction markets 😉

elfin cradle
stark palm
elfin cradle
#

Afaik its alot harder to manufacture, therefore fewer producers, not that much better nor economical worth than RDX (1.7 vs 1.6 RE factor). You can littarly make RDX in your garage from 2 chemicals, one that you can buy in any camping store.

#

Have I imagine that the German investegators said they had found traces of hexamine?

inner sandal
#

Just a reminder that Seymour Hersh said the explosive was C4

#

Interesting paragraph from Wikipedia. Apparently HMX (octogen) is used to punch holes in steel pipes.

hmx.png
serene grove
#

eh you can use pretty much whatever high explosive you want to make shaped charges, that doesn't really set it apart

inner sandal
#

New interview with Seymour Hersh in Neue Zürcher Zeitung. The weirdest yet.

https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/seymour-hersh-ueber-seine-umstrittenen-theorien-zu-nord-stream-ld.1739536

Neue Zürcher Zeitung
Seymour Hersh: «Ob Sie und die Öffentlichkeit mir glauben, ist mir ...

Der amerikanische Starreporter Seymour Hersh hat einst die Wahrheit über das Massaker von My Lai enthüllt. Heute sind seine Recherchen umstritten. Im Interview verteidigt er seine Befunde, nach denen die USA die russische Gasleitung Nord Stream gesprengt haben soll.

velvet rain
#

NZZ has drifted right politically in recent years, so they might be motivated to make Hersh look more reasonable than he actually did. But his behaviour in this interview is still obviously deranged.

strange bane
#

What’s the truth to the Seymour Hersh and Abu Ghraib angle?

stark palm
#

At this point it is more sad than anything. He obviously isn’t all there anymore and is being taken advantage of.

vocal violet
#

The fact he mentions that he's very much paying people to edit and "fact-check" his stories pretty much explains it

dire canyon
vocal violet
dire canyon
#

And he just doesn't care what gets put out. That's just great.

tired monolith
#

so essentially the same as the US Democrat lady

#

as long as its not preventing them, money and people around them who like money keeps them there

velvet rain
#

I don't think these situations are really that comparable.

tired monolith
#

perhaps not, but more in a sense that people reach an expiry date where they can be exploited if they have too wide reach or power - so should perhaps be some upper limit regulations to correct for it

topaz mortar
#

so many twists and turns in this saga, eh?

#

I was reading through the latest comments and one thing I am not sure of, whether @stark palm or others accept or not the validity of the claim that German intelligence agencies analyzed the movements of Russian ships near the blast sites and concluded they could not have "done it"? That seems a very important consideration to me anyway.

#

all we have for that is a journalist saying it

topaz mortar
#

and that contradicts what someone posted earlier:

topaz mortar
#

The claim was reported by @elfin cradle

#

#1072947857654554624 message

#

but not sure where from

image.png
elfin cradle
# topaz mortar but not sure where from

You could have asked me directly 😛
Here you go:

"De ryska fartyg som observerats i området för sabotaget månaderna före explosionerna anses inte längre intressanta av de tyska utredarna.
Enligt källor har de ryska fartygen kunnat uteslutas från utredningen – dess positioner finns kartlagda och slutsatsen ska vara att de inte har funnits på sådan plats att de kan ha utfört dådet."
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/misstankta-sparen-fran-sabotaget-mot-nord-stream/

Misstänkta spåren från sabotaget mot Nord Stream

WARSZAWA/ROSTOCK. En 26-årig ukrainsk soldat med falskt pass och ett brevlådeföretag i Warszawa är två heta spår i den tyska utredningen kring sabotaget av gasledningen Nord Stream. Det kan Expressen avslöja i samarbete med europeiska medier. De ryska fartyg som synts i närheten av gasledningen har avfärdats i den utredningen och fokus ligger på...

topaz mortar
#

That's funny, I just found it a minute ago 😉

#

Has anyone contacted Matthias Carlsson?

elfin cradle
#

I dont think so. Wanna make me do it?

#

I think I have seen a similar qoute in a German article that the DE investigators disregarded the RU ships. Will try to find it. Will let you know.

topaz mortar
#

Thanks, I asked him on Twitter, will update if I get a response

elfin cradle
#

Nice! 😄

inner sandal
#

It was also mentioned in last week's Spiegel article: "Bis heute halten sich zahlreiche Spekulationen über mögliche Täter, die bis hin zu einer Bezichtigung amerikanischer Nachrichtendienste in Zusammenarbeit mit norwegischen Behörden reichen. Auch von einer sogenannten »False Flag«-Operation durch Russland ist immer wieder die Rede. Unter mit dem Vorgang vertrauten Personen gilt dies als äußerst unwahrscheinlich. Hinter den Kulissen hieß es sogar schon früh, Moskau habe kein wirkliches Motiv für die Tat."

topaz mortar
#

not quite so specific though

little zinc
#

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-andromeda-ukraine-russland-102.html

In the course of the Nord Stream investigation, the Federal Criminal Police Office searched an apartment in Germany and interviewed a woman. The witness is apparently the former partner of a Ukrainian suspect.

tagesschau.de
Anschlag auf Pipelines: Durchsuchung in Deutschland

Im Zuge der Nord-Stream-Ermittlungen hat das Bundeskriminalamt eine Wohnung in Deutschland durchsucht und eine Frau befragt. Die Zeugin ist offenbar die ehemalige Lebensgefährtin eines ukrainischen Tatverdächtigen. Von M. Bewarder und F. Flade.

velvet rain
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Is this the first time an article mentioned the actual charge that German investigators are investigating?
StGB § 88 Verfassungsfeindliche Sabotage

elfin cradle
velvet rain
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Exactly, that's one of the reasons I thought it was noteworthy.

serene grove
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that would just be the criminal side of it, there would also be damages and compensation and stuff

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I don't mind the 5 year sentence limit tbh, considering that most of the situations where this law would apply probably involve environmental or other rights activists

little zinc
raw nexus
hollow ice
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https://vxtwitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1665704948187668488?t=v1OHCKNVFdgKUulmAC5nrw&s=19

vxTwitter
A deep fake Putin announcing mass mobilisation in Russia may be one part of what seems to be a hacking attack coinciding with Ukrainian counter-offensives in the east & south today. TVs in Crimea were reportedly bro…
Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore)

A deep fake Putin announcing mass mobilisation in Russia may be one part of what seems to be a hacking attack coinciding with Ukrainian counter-offensives in the east & south today. TVs in Crimea were reportedly bro…

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eager moss
little zinc
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russia also just started an unannounced naval exercise in the baltic:
https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1665640543555145728
https://www.svoboda.org/a/rossiya-i-nato-odnovremenno-provodyat-voennye-ucheniya-v-baltiyskom-more/32445005.html

Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov)

#Russia today began a previously unannounced naval exercise in the #BalticSea, a day after @NATO began its annual #BALTOPS exercise.

Russia's drill involves 40 vessels, 25 aircraft and 3,500 servicemen.

1/2

https://t.co/NYCRljFVXa

Twitter ·
inner sandal
eager moss
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there must be a story behind that particular 'enhancement' for it to warrant a mention ?

deft crescent
nimble gull
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Certainly problematic if true. Really wild. But at this point, maybe Europe will choose to ignore it.

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Also crazy how that one line in early German reporting which everyone ignored has turned into THE story now.

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Putting this together with the old Spiegel reporting, I guess we can assume the original plan was to attack from a Swedish port.

tired monolith
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easier to understand where that story comes from, but still lacks a credible explanation on how they would pull it off

mossy star
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A bit wild that Wapo sat on this leak for 2 months and published it today of all days, but also looks like they did a lot of legwork on investigative research with talking with Euro leaders and such.

nimble gull
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Also what are the ramifications of this if we are to believe this group was reporting directly to Gen. Zaluzhnyi, and it was supposed to happen right after BALTOPS - what conceivable motivation for that besides laying the blame on NATO?

elfin cradle
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I never believe in any news that uses "anonymously intelligence officals", it can just be disgruntled intelligence people that just want to sabotage for the state for some reason. Its just " Get out of Jail card" where you can claim anything but show no real source or proof.

And isn't it curious that this news about Nordstream always show up in US news when Ukraine have great sucess on the battlefield or just started a new offensive?

nimble gull
nimble gull
mossy star
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Saying WaPo is dumping this to tamper Ukrainian success or sow disbelief with the dam is insane, sorry

pure finch
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For me, my brain goes back to the Minerva Julie hanging around the area for such a prolonged period - right when the Andromeda is supposed to have been active above where the cluster of leaks subsequently appeared.

Is it possible the Russian's could also have received similar intelligence from an informant? And if they had, could a tanker awaiting orders, have served as a deniable lookout for them?

tired monolith
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I just dont the pieces fit together with all the other activitities around there that they pulled off not being noticed, carrying all the gear they need AND the dive while also apparently the countries around there being aware of the risk

nimble gull
pure finch
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To be clear, I have no idea - I'm spit balling some ideas. The coincidence of the MJ's appearance over the site is difficult for me to get past, but in time, it may become clear that it simply was a coincidence.

nimble gull
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Yeah... I thought it was compelling too, but it seems no major outlets (or the sources in the investigations or intelligence talking to outlets) want to touch it.

tidal knoll
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Zaluzhnyi and not Budanov, though?

nimble gull
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According to this yeah: "The European intelligence made clear that the would-be attackers were not rogue operatives. All those involved reported directly to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the country’s highest-ranking military officer, who was put in charge so that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wouldn’t know about the operation, the intelligence report said."

stark palm
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The new WP states that the CIA received info about a planned Ukrainian attack on NS from a European intel agency, from a Ukrainian source the CIA hadn’t yet deemed reliable.

Months ago the story was that the CIA got the info from intercepted Russian communications

nimble gull
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Exactly

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Weird that they don't reference that

vagrant scarab
inner sandal
vagrant scarab
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Oh my god, what humongous amount of warcrimes are they committing that "putting a cross on a parked tank" rises to the level of "interesting enough to publish"?

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Did the danish military spend millions of DK on developing a special cross holder or something?

civic rapids
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You can't put a price on a tank blessed by an almighty. Isn't it normal anyway for Chaplains to be present with deployments etc? Also for exercises too?

tranquil sigil
limber hinge
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Linked below is a interview with a retired US Navy Captain discussing the Ukraine War with an emphasis on the Black Sea. About 80% of the way through they discuss Nord Stream briefly. No new info but a way of evaluating who done it.

The interview is interesting in its own right as well.

https://youtu.be/60FH6D3qJVg

YouTube
Silicon Curtain
Jerry Hendrix - Black Sea is an Overlooked Factor in Understanding ...

GUEST: Jerry Hendrix - retired United States Navy captain, historian and author

The land war in Ukraine has occupied most attention among media and analysts since the full-scale war began in February 2022. But what happens in the Black Sea is perhaps where we should focus more. The battle for Snake Island, and the sinking of the Mosk...

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pure vine
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i know this is probably disproven by now but i did some napkin math and like

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how do people believe the andromeda

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300kgs*3=900kgs
5 divers you can assume 85kgs p/person (425kgs)
assume one tank per dive per diver (180 kgs)
1500kgs already

the bc50 can carry 1800kgs

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you have another 300kgs to carry all the rest of your gear, including stuff like food, literal lead weights

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plus youd need give or take 4 weeks to say back and forth from rostock to bornholm

limber hinge
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Quote from an American source, link below...I find this source to be quite good.

Note Kirby's comment near the bottom of the bottom of the quote.

[Quote]In an exclusive story, The Washington Post on Tuesday reported that "three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces."

The newspaper wrote that a European intelligence service collected the information and shared it with the CIA in June 2022. The details "provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure," the Post reported.

The European intelligence report was shared on the chat platform Discord, allegedly by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira. The Post said it obtained a copy from one of Teixeira’s online friends.

When asked about the story during a briefing Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby declined to “engage in a discussion about intelligence matters from the podium specifically with regard to that disclosure or any of the other,” he said. “And in this case, certainly not going to speak to one that The Washington Post even said was not corroborated by U.S. intelligence agencies.” [/quote]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says

The Drive
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S...

The White House says it's too early to tell how the destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam will affect Ukraine's counteroffensive.

inner sandal
limber hinge
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Brian
I don't have time or gumption at the moment for a long dissertation so to cut to the chase..... my feelings on this Andromeda matter have hardened over time. As a very occasional recreational Diver and as a live aboard on a sailboat I find the Andromeda story ludicrous.

I get that some people say this or that is possible, and they are correct. What I see now is that peopl3 have a very hard time putting all the pieces together, integrating the actions in their mind, to come up with a good understanding of what it would have been like in the moment, or week on this case.

In short Andromeda is BS, IMHO.

If you desire I can answer in more detail. But it takes the skill set of Joseph Conrad to make you viscerally understand, to feel the heave. That I do not have.

strange bane
nimble gull
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I feel like this needs further examination/inquiry:

● The Ukrainian plan was to carry out the attack in June last year, “on the heels” of BALTOPS, a major Nato exercise held annually in the Baltic. For reasons that still unexplained it appears to have been put on hold but revived three months later.

inner sandal
# nimble gull Good summary and commentary Brian.

Not exactly sure what “on the heels” of BALTOPS means, but using BALTOPS as cover could risk implicating Nato in the attack -- which would be pretty stupid. The CIA received the intelligence info in June, which could be before, during or after BALTOPS, but presumably the sabotage operation would have already been put on hold by then.

nimble gull
inner sandal
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Washington Post says the intelligence info came from a "close" European ally who is not named in order to protect the source. The word "close" suggests to me that it's talking about the UK. Anyone agree?

eager moss
# nimble gull I feel like this needs further examination/inquiry: ● The Ukrainian plan was t...

In the context of this particular theory, the risk of detection of anything placed around the pipelines prior to August would have been high; there was a planned annual maintenance period from early July to mid July. The annual maintenance should have included an external visual inspection of both NS-1 pipelines by ROV. Such a visual survey, performed competently, would have identifed anything placed on or near the pipeline. During this maintenance period gas delivery is severely restricted; not that gas delivery needs to be turned down for an external inspection but obviously there are maintenance activities at the onshore compression facilities and in previous years the rov inspection was performed around the same time. This chart shows the gas delivered through NS-1 and you can see where delivery drops off significantly in both 2021 and 2022 for this maintenance.

Image_8-6-2023_at_10.43.jpeg
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The chart also clearly shows when the gas delivery was reduced to 40% of capacity prior to maintenance shut down, later to 20% of capacity and to zero in first week of September. We know that one compressor/turbine had been taken offline sometime earlier in the year and transported to Canada for maintenance; but looking at the profile my guess is that there really were some issues with compression at the Russian landfall and it wasn't just bluffing by Gazprom to justify reducing the delivery rate. Some additional info : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-off-line-nord-stream-compressor-station-now-deemed-hazardous-2022-09-05/

Reuters
Gazprom: off-line Nord Stream compressor station now deemed hazardous

Russian gas giant Gazprom said on Monday it had received a formal warning from Russian regulators that the idled Portovaya compressor station, which is supposed to push gas towards Germany through the Nord Steam 1 pipeline, no longer complied with safety requirements.

civic rapids
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How have the German intelligence come to the conclusion, the Ru vessels are not involved? Kinda curious with that given some of the Ru infiltration they suffered.

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I can't say I'd exclude wilful negligence if a fault was developing with companies potentially becoming insolvent

nimble gull
eager moss
# nimble gull Agree but detection doesn’t matter if the explosions were meant to be immediate ...

the point that was raised in the discussion above (aro/Brian) was that the original intelligence report supposedly received by cia from a european agency said that the operation was planned for June and that "for reasons that still unexplained it appears to have been put on hold but revived three months later". I'm pointing out why it made sense to postpone and not to place any explosives on the pipeline in June (or July).

nimble gull
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But if the explosion is immediate - or within 24 hrs from planting, what does detection matter?

eager moss
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it doesn't but i think you have missed the point - maybe read through the earlier conversation you had with Brian ? ie "For reasons that still unexplained it appears to have been put on hold but revived three months later." I just explained why it would have been put on hold ? BALTOPS in June and survey in July I suggest would mean that the operation to place explosives would be delayed until after both to avoid detection. It's worth noting that if the Andromeda was involved, there was a period of almost two weeks between it being on site and the explosions on the 26th.

elfin cradle
# eager moss In the context of this particular theory, the risk of detection of anything plac...

I wonder if its possible to find out if they did a visual inspection (the press release doesn't say anything of external inspection, nor what is included in the annual maintainence). And who did the inspection, and if it would be possible to get it somehow.

https://www.nord-stream.com/media/news/press_releases/en/2022/07/annual-maintenance-works-of-nord-stream-pipeline-will-be-performed-in-july-2022_20220701.pdf

eager moss
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Agreed - but the press releases are just 'motherhood statements' that are identical each year and issued firstly before the maintenance period and later on the day they are completed; the associated pdf releases just state that ". . . Nord Stream AG will temporarily shut down both lines of its gas pipeline system for routine maintenance works inclusive testing of mechanical elements and automation systems for ensuring reliable, safe, and efficient pipeline operations" which says nothing of any value. There is no publicly available information (that I can find) on the work performed for 2022 - for obvious reasons I think.

inner sandal
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Wall Street Journal says investigators have tracked the Andromeda's movements ... including a trip to Poland.

"The Journal cited people familiar with the Andromeda’s voyage as indicating the sabotage crew had finished half their job, laying deep-sea explosives on Nord Stream 1, before they set their Bavaria 50 Cruiser on a course away from their target, toward Poland.

"Andromeda, which had days before been rented from a German company based close to where the pipelines land, sailed back north in what investigators believe was an effort to complete its task and plant mines on Nord Stream 2, the newspaper said."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-clues-inside-poland-wsj-2023-06-10/?taid=64840a8edb77690001a922e3&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Reuters
Nord Stream sabotage probe turns to clues inside Poland- WSJ

German investigators are examining evidence suggesting a sabotage team used Poland as an operating base to damage the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

inner sandal
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It looks like the Andromeda only carried enough explosive to attack NS1, then sailed into Polish waters to pick up more explosive for NS2.

stark palm
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which means it did it during the time when the MJ was directly over the pipes and the US and German navy were conducting the exercise a few miles away.

pure finch
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☝️

elfin cradle
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Its really bad by the German investigators if they are first now doing investigations in poland, months after the articles started to turn up..

serene grove
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new dispatch from sey hersch: they got the explosives air dropped somehow

elfin cradle
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It would be so funny if the Danes and the Swedes found TNT or RDX on the samples from the pipes.

serene grove
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I think nobody actually uses TNT anymore? RDX is like what you wanna be thinking about

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especially since it comes in a bunch of pipe cutting forms

elfin cradle
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TNT is common in mixtures for underwater charges, like naval mines.

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And we know it wasnt a cutting charge. At least not at the site where people have been diving with ROVs.

serene grove
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my understanding is that the first people who got there cut out the damaged segments and took them home