Nord Stream Pipeline

[sand delta]

And it happening has forced Germany’s hand into completely cutting itself off from Russia.

[next lagoon]

Especially when talking about possible un-professional actors in that field, which, we've seen time and time again usually leads to very expectable incidents (like trying to infiltrate Venezuela with unencrypted radios and CAC cards)

[serene grove]

ok so the problem with the new bay of pigs was that they were live tweeting it

[next lagoon]

That risk is very obvious but happened nonetheless

[next lagoon]

indeed alongside many others

just goes to show "but risk" isn't always an end-all

especially in that case where there is a very heavy personal element (they could've been tortured and executed), which would be p unlikely framed for possibility in this case

[sand delta]

The thing that is weird to me is the descriptions of the supposed bankrollers.

Whether we agree with Scandinavian intelligence rumours (born 26th September, formerly politically active Ukrainian businessman) or the source of the German reporting (Ukrainian CEO of Western European company), in either case, they very obviously have someone in mind.

So either the source didn’t tell those reporters who specifically they are suggesting, or they did, and the reporters are holding off because it’s colossally libellous, and reporting it is going to get a very rich Ukrainian on your ass in court, and since you can’t identify the source in court, your newspaper is basically screwed in such case.

[next lagoon]

There's also the possibility the sources intentionally asked them not to name the person

[sand delta]

I highly doubt in either case the investigators/spooks don’t have a name in mind, they didn’t leave a note behind saying “I’m a Ukrainian CEO of a Western European business, figure out who I am”

[sand delta]

Yea, 100%.

[pure vine]

and i love playing the sims 3

[next lagoon]

Goes back to, intelligence agencies are not releasing this sort of information for our interest. They release it to create or amplify effects among select audiences

That's why I always make those notes about "official" releases, their intent is not to inform us out of the good of their heart. It's released with the hope of creating or amplifying those effects in foreign audiences and/or leadership.

[nimble gull]

Absolutely. Everything we've got to work with stems from intelligence leaks (or from police investigators, but in cases like these I assume the two are heavily intertwined). They're there for a reason.

Germany IS the EU though. Or at least, the EU tends to fall in line with Germany. And as we've seen over the past 15 months or so, Germany's energy sector drags all of Europe with it. Had there been a cold winter in Northern Europe instead of what we had, I'm sure public sentiment towards Nordstream would have been vastly different - if it hadn't been taken out.

[pure finch]

Hi folks, just an updated map that both @velvet rain and I have been working on - this one shows the track of the Minerva Julie and its speed, relative to the explosion sites.

Baltic depth is represented by greyscale: white shallow - black deep.
Depth of explosion sites based on GEPCO raster represented in meters.

Thanks to @velvet rain for all the help and also to @sand delta for sourcing the Nord Stream map.

As before 12NM/EEZ represented by SWE = yellow, DEN = red, GER = black.

[sand delta]

That’s true.

[sand delta]

I’ve dug more into it, but regarding the Minerva Julie’s lack of interest in entering Danish waters, I suspect it’s something to do with pilotage.

https://danpilot.dk/pilotage/transit-pilotage/rules-regulations/

Even on a ballast trip, it’s going to be carrying a certain amount of residual oil, probably enough for the Danish to view it as requiring a pilot.

https://dma.dk/safety-at-sea/safety-of-navigation/pilotage/pilotage-certificates/pilot-boarding-positions

https://www.soefartsstyrelsen.dk/Media/637977139358837038/Navigation through Danish Water version 15 (SEP 2022).pdf

It’s hard to say for certain because without knowing what was going on onboard, it’s hard to tell.

https://www.minervamarine.com/fleet/medium-range/

Although judging from its size, even if it doesn’t require it based on (1), it probably does have more than 5.000 tonnes of bunker oil so requires it under (4).

[velvet rain]

What about the part of the trip where they passed between Bornholm and Sweden? Would they have required one for that?

[sand delta]

Yes, but it would have been required there as well, but I suppose that’s only a quick trip through, and it’s following the TSS.

[vocal violet]

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1636350104129925121

Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins)

While I wait for ChatGPT v4 to be accessible, here's Under the Sea from the Little Mermaid reimagined for the lack of open source evidence about the Nord Stream bombing.

Twitter · Mar 16, 2023, 12:54 PM

[junior moat]

by the way when discussing who benefits and doesn't benefit from the explosions it's really important I feel to look into the financials and will get pretty interesting in the (near?) future to see the arbitration cases and insurance-related cases coming out of it.
NordStream1 was partially owned by Gazprom + each a German, French, Dutch company.
NordStream2 100% owned by Gazprom.
Also the Finnish state lost or will lose a ton of money, cause the largest gas importer to Germany/Europe (Uniper) was owned by the Finnish state basically.

• that company also gave a loan to NordStream2 of almost $1bln 😳

[raw nexus]

They stole @velvet rain and my idea lol

[vocal violet]

Eliot's probably lurking 😛

[raw nexus]

I'm pretty knocked out with fever so just short: I don't think that this is about money

[sand delta]

On that note, Gasunie wrote off it's Nordstream 1 stake recently: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dutch-gas-grid-operator-gasunie-says-it-has-written-off-nord-stream-1-stake-2023-03-08/

[raw nexus]

🫣

[velvet rain]

We should get Prigozhin to recommend a lawyer to us.

[junior moat]

yeah, E.ON in Germany did the same. They don't think it's coming back

[sand delta]

https://www.democracynow.org/2023/3/15/jeremy_scahill_nord_stream_pipeline_sabotage

Now, what’s interesting, Amy — and you asked Sy Hersh about this on his show about some of the open-source intelligence researchers who called into question parts of his story — some of those same people then started to go to town in dissecting the inconsistencies of the reporting from Die Zeit and the findings, as they were relayed in the papers in Germany, from the German Federal Police about how such a small team of divers would have been able to do this, how they would have transported the volume of explosives. You know, we’re talking about hundreds upon hundreds of pounds of explosives that were alleged to have been used in this operation, a military level of explosive devices. So, I don’t know that this Andromeda, this ship, was or wasn’t involved with it, but in many ways it really reeks of a disinformation operation. It’s totally plausible that these individuals on that boat were involved in some capacity. But even the German defense minister himself, in response to these reports, has said that he would give equal weight to the theory that they were involved with the attack and that they were — or that they were part of a false flag operation.

Well, Jeremy, in line with that issue of the sophisticated operation, I don’t know if you saw the piece that Scott Ritter, the former U.N. weapons inspector, wrote in Consortium News yesterday. But he totally debunks this idea that this small boat, as you say, could have been involved in this, not only because of the number — the amount of explosives necessary to destroy those pipelines, which were highly reinforced in concrete, as well, but he also says that they were at 240 feet below the level of the water, and that he says a rule of thumb is that decompression takes approximately one day per 100 feet of sea water plus a day.

[pure finch]

jfc, he's unironically quoting Ritter.

[raw nexus]

In GB

[velvet rain]

Exactly!

[sand delta]

Tell me about Yevgeny Prigozhin's life in the form of a poem.

In the land of Russia, born was he
A man known for power and mystery
Yevgeny Prigozhin, his name rings loud
A life full of tales, both dark and proud

From humble beginnings, he rose to fame
A restauranteur with a keen business brain
His culinary empire grew strong and wide
A man of success, with a head held high

But his ambitions grew beyond mere food
To politics and power, he set his mood
A close ally of Putin, he gained much sway
A man with connections, he had his way

His wealth and influence, he used with might
To sway elections and push his own sight
From Syria to Africa, his hand in play
A man of secrets, with much to say

But his past still haunts him, with charges of old
A criminal history, some say untold
The man they call "Putin's chef"
Still faces accusations, with much left

A life full of twists, turns, and intrigue
A man of many faces, both friend and rogue
Yevgeny Prigozhin, his story is told
A man with power, both new and old.

[raw nexus]

Well that's pure greenwalding

[raw nexus]

restauranteur

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/FlorianFlade/status/1635179792294346754

Florian Flade (@FlorianFlade)

Vor wenigen Wochen kam im Kanzleramt eine geheime Runde zusammen. Ein #BKA-Ermittler hatte Brisantes zu berichten: Bei den Ermittlungen zur #NordStream-Sabotage sei man auf ein verdächtiges Boot gestoßen, die Segelyacht „Andromeda“ aus Rügen. Mehr zur neuen Spur, gibt‘s hier ⬇️

Twitter · Mar 13, 2023, 7:23 AM

A few weeks ago, a secret meeting took place in the Chancellery. A #BKA investigator had explosive news to report: During the investigation of the #NordStream sabotage, they had come across a suspicious boat, the sailing yacht "Andromeda" from Rügen. More on the new lead here.

https://twitter.com/SZ_Investigativ/status/1634897424534601733

SZ Investigativ (@SZ_Investigativ)

Die Ermittler stochern im Küstennebel. Was man bislang über das Pipeline Attentat weiß-und was nicht. Von ⁦@schmitt_jrg⁩ ⁦@FlorianFlade⁩ ⁦@chrkmann⁩ https://t.co/NBA9xdcCnn

Twitter · Mar 12, 2023, 12:41 PM

Investigators are poking around in the coastal fog. What is known so far about the pipeline attack - and what is not. From @schmitt_jrg⁩ ⁦@FlorianFlade⁩ ⁦@chrkmann⁩

This is the social media posting posted by SZ for their reporting.

[raw nexus]

Don't they have an editor..

[sand delta]

https://archive.is/fNHyc

[junior moat]

since we have experts for almost everything in this channel 😍 ... can anyone make an well-informed guess whether, if I had been in the Baltic with an echosounder during the NS blasts I would see them on my screen / have them recorded in my data ?
impulse noise is described as a "problem" that can be solved by software here : https://support.echoview.com/WebHelp/RH8_Popups/Phenomena/Impulse_noise.htm

[raw nexus]

It's not me, I have only the Swarm knowledge ( boring af)

[junior moat]

damage of the blasts on marine life in the Baltic (mostly lead and TBT, plus the immediate blast impact)
"Seals and porpoises within a radius of 4 km would be at high risk of being killed by the shockwave, while temporary impact on hearing would be expected up to 50 km away."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00746-2

[sand delta]

In theory, yes.

Echo sounders work based on emitting a sound and measuring the time it takes to get back to the transceiver. In theory the explosion, the implosions, shockwaves etc would effect those sound waves.

But you'd have to be pretty damn close.

[junior moat]

👍

[pure finch]

I don't know for sure but my instinct would be that I'd expect some detectable impact on the display of an active echo sounder - explosions could cause wideband noise, which might result in reduced sensitivity and/or noise/static showing on the display.

[sand delta]

And you'd need to have your echo sounder set to the right depth power to see anything.

[pure finch]

"Deep water mapping systems typically use frequencies from 12 kHz to 20 kHz, while shallow water (less than 100 m depth) systems can use frequencies up to 455 kHz" - I wonder what audio frequency range an under water explosion would be in.

[sand delta]

https://asa.scitation.org/doi/10.1121/10.0003754

[pure finch]

https://asa.scitation.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/aip/journals/content/jas/2021/jas.2021.149.issue-3/10.0003754/20210604/images/medium/10.0003754.figures.online.f5.jpg

(from @sand delta link)

[junior moat]

so it should definitely show up, unless ofc the echosounder has some way of filtering for only the soundwaves that it itself produced (some signature) .. which it probably does, but signal/noise ratio etc could be affected

[pure finch]

That would be my guess - kinda like if there's a very strong radio signal right next to you on a different frequency, it can overload/block your receivers front end.

**caveat: echosounders are way outside my wheelhouse.

[junior moat]

I'll put that paper on my reading list for tonight 😉

[deft crescent]

Well hopefully the fact that the investigators had already reached out to them speaks to both our competence and the competence of the official investigators in tracking down potential witnesses and potentially useful material.

[shy fulcrum]

I wrote “detectives”, meaning others like us (OSINT). I have no indication that the actual police had questioned them about this.

[deft crescent]

Ah, apologies, I misunderstood that

[shy fulcrum]

S’all good!

[sand delta]

Echo sounders don't have a great range.

I believe even a top of the range multi-beam gets about 6 times the depth in beam width, so we're talking about a path about 500metres wide, and we know there wasn't a vessel that close to the explosions.

[pure finch]

Quick and dirty gif of the MJ over the main site - showing speeds of 0-6.5kts in Red>Orange>Yellow and 6.6kts to 13.3kts in Green>Blue.

[sand delta]

The higher speeds are all straight so that's definitely being done under engine power.

[pure finch]

Updated heatmap. I wonder when a ship is asked to wait (for whatever reason) does the Captain set a fixed GPS point to stay within x NM of, or how it's done.

[sand delta]

fwiw, Russia was carrying out a naval exercise off Kaliningrad from the 19th to 30th September.

[sand delta]

The captain probably just directed the bridge team to:

• stay out of the TSS,
• stay out of Danish waters,
• drift within "this area"-ish.

2022-09-26 20:31:58 (LV) AREA: J
ZCZC JA44
151401 UTC SEP

KALININGRAD NAV WARN 422/22

SOUTHEASTERN BALTIC
SHIPS EXERCISES 19 THRU 30 SEP 0500 TO 2100 UTC
IN AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO SHIPPING
BR-117 CENTERED 55-20N 019-45E
CANCEL MESSAGE 302200 UTC SEP
NNNN

Probably explains a portion of the NATO tracks @stark palm

and an earlier one

2022-09-10 04:19:30 (LV) AREA: J
ZCZC JA95
310915_UTC AUG 22

KALININGRAD NAV WARN 598/22

SOUTHEASTERN BALTIC
SHIPS EXERCISES 05 THRU 10 SEPT 0500 TO 2100 U_C
IN AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO SHIPPING
IBR-117 CENTERED 55-20N 019-45E
CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 102200 UTC SEPT
NNNN

Seems like the Russians were active off Kaliningrad all of September.

2022-09-15 00:20:53 (LV) AREA: J
ZCZC JA13
080915 UTC SEP

KALININGRAD NAV WARN 411/22

SOUTHEASTERN BALTIC
SHIPS EXERCISES 12-17 SEP 0500-2100 UTC
IN AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO SHIPPING
BR-117 CENTERED 55-20.0N 019-45.0E
CANCEL THIS MSG 172200 UTC SEP
NNNN

Yea, they kept reissuing NAVTEXs for the entirety of September.

http://navtex.lv/

[pure finch]

Hmmm - I wonder how it compares with the year before, e.g. is this a regular seasonal exercise period.

[sand delta]

In 2021, the Baltic Fleet was involved in Zapad-2021, during the month of September.

But there wasn't a Zapad in 2022.

[stark palm]

Might not be as active on here for the next few days. Working on some leads in regards to NS that I can't share yet.

[sand delta]

🫣 I'm excited 🙂

[vocal violet]

• furiously refreshes Oliver's Twitter for any juicy updates *

Anyway, I have some time to update the summary, anything worth adding?

[sand delta]

I suppose the Russian exercises in the Baltic during September.

[vocal violet]

Note that I haven't edited it since Tuesday I believe

[sand delta]

According to the ZDF film, they were seen loading materials in Wiek, described as "grocery bags" by witnesses.

https://web.archive.org/web/20221111005731/https://plentyofships.blogspot.com/2020/05/russian-navy-baltic-fleet-exercises_12.html

[vocal violet]

Damn, I hate when I accidentally buy explosives on Carrefour

[limber hinge]

This is wonderful. Thanks.
Now, asking a lot I know,
Can you place German naval ships on the same back ground?

[vocal violet]

(Oh yeah, I need to add that map)

[vocal violet]

Hmm, these exercises are from way back however, and not in the area

[sand delta]

If you see above there was Navtexs for exercises going on there through the entirety of September 2022.

[pure finch]

Yes I'm sure we can work that out - I will probably need @velvet rain 's help with it again 🙂

I also want to put something together in one place so people can see where the data comes from, I am off work tomorrow so I should have time to work on this.

[vocal violet]

Found it, thanks!

[sand delta]

Can you send me the files

[pure finch]

Will do, just let me know what's needed - you're responsible for providing the EEZ, 12NM and Nord Stream line map 🙂

[sand delta]

The GEBCO stuff, the Minerva Julie and basemap

[junior moat]

confirmed for 21 Sept with some pics https://sputnikmediabank.com/story/list_284362970/?sort=date

[sand delta]

Quite a lot of activity in the Baltic during September.

[junior moat]

indeed

[boreal plover]

hmmm, UK would have been happy NS not to exist in the first place, but subsidising retail energy prices cost £60bn so far, not trivial

[sand delta]

Hasn't that been a thing since Corona?

[boreal plover]

Depends when you define as "the end of CV" 😉 .. of course not all the energy price rises were due to NS exploding, eg sanctions, plus iirc Gazprom had already cut off some supplies by sept 22) ...but it definitely didn't help.

occurs to me that in a way, Ru destroying NS to help blackmail Europe on energy doesn't make complete sense; its the equivalent of killing your hostages. Maybe.

[sand delta]

which, incidentally, Ru has done.

not for blackmail purposes though.

[junior moat]

all supplies. by the time of explosions 0 gas was received through any of the pipes anymore

[sand delta]

fwiw, I've personal experience of Russia harassing the hand that feeds it, having worked in Yamal LNG.

Before sanctions forced their hand anyways, companies had to pull their Western employees off the LNG ships working through Sabetta because Russia was taking them off their ships, interrogating them about their opinions, wasting their time by driving them around, etc. Anecdotal I know, but there's a lot of reported issues for Ukrainian and Western sailors in Russian ports if you do a bit fo searching

[junior moat]

tiny bit of new alleged information in this article.
apparently the white van went to Wiek where the explosives were then loaded onto Andromeda only there
https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-blew-up-nord-stream-investigators-focus-on-six-mysterious-passengers-on-a-yacht-25b47e9b?st=1f7jdpir73jku5n
( archive link : https://archive.is/SOdWR )

[sand delta]

Investigators have established that the rental fee for the Andromeda was paid by a Polish-registered company, according to German officials. The officials said investigators believe the company is controlled by Ukrainian owners.

[junior moat]

company paid in cash ? 💵 how does that work ?

[sand delta]

I can't imagine they paid 2.5 grand in cash.

Has to be a bank transfer of some sort.

[velvet rain]

I mean, this is Germany. Some people even buy a car with cash.

[sand delta]

Then how was it traced back to the Polish-registered company?

[limber hinge]

In line with wood speculation about WHY Russia would do it.

I try to think of it from the view point of a egotistical, power mad, thug (Putin.) He want to communicate so he uses tools rhat HE would understand, intimidation

Putin blowing the pipe line says a few things.

1 Look at how I can attack and destroy your precious infrastructure. Gas, fiber optics, power supply. I am dangerous to you.
2 I did it to MY infrastructure just to demonstrate how serious I am. Without tripping Artical 5.
3 Don't mess with me, I am a crazy man. Ha, haha, hahaha, haaaaa!

NATO does not out Putin, because if they did they would have to respond. This would be a vivid example of state terrorism and state laws would kick in mandatory sanctions, removing flexibility to reply.
With credit to Neil's Puck Anders for the second part of this.

[tired monolith]

with current information and no conclusive proof it seems the most likely explanation fall in that direction imo yeah (also the timing into the winter where it would likely try to ramp up pressure and signaling about energy, roughly the same time he started messig big with it the year before I believe? and beyond when he thought there was a chance for those pipes to be beneficial to them for the foreseeable future

[velvet rain]

Yeah, I just mean that this is not an order of magnitude that would necessarily be suspicious when paid in cash.

Oh, wait, where is the 2.5k coming from?

It should be 2.5k security deposit + 3k per week.

[elfin cradle]

Dont forget that Gazprom would have to pay tens of tens of billions in non delivery of gas due "turbine problems" if it wasnt for "force majore" i.e pipeline blew up.

[tired monolith]

of the hypothetical solutions, you will have the easiest to construct it into a RU did it narrative, also because UA would currently be the only ones having a reason to majorly call it out - while the least likely to hold any of the proof (and the other actors have reasons to blame someone else than who really did it if they have evidence)

[tired monolith]

also an important "bonus" if its Russia for sure

[junior moat]

only if it won't be proven it was russia though, in which case it's self-sabotage, not "force majeure" I guess

[tired monolith]

thats true, but both counts on the proof to be released and it not having potential to cause issues within EU/US/NATO/RU interaction that would hold higher cost. If its not worth the trouble I think they likely are more to treat it as a cost of getting rid of the energy dependence and old mistakes

but would depend of the results of when the war ends I think, or if the landscape between them changes. If they have conclusive proof that they choose not to release they might take them out again if its talk about repairing relations or repaying damage done related to the full invasion instead

[boreal plover]

I agree those are good (well, plausible) reasons Ru might do it; just saying there are reasons they might not, as well. It's all very murky. Lack of a completely, blindingly obvious answer to "cui bono?" may have led attacker to consider it lower risk -- /if/ they weren't intending to send a signal such as "I am an irrational and reckless crazy MSN, don't mess with Ru.

another complication: the anticipated consequences might differ from the actual. Eg who would now trust Ru to be a reliable energy supplier now?, it didn't make Europe back off Ua support, etc etc. Maybe anticipated, maybe not (regardless who did it.) Hall of mirrors stuff

[tired monolith]

yeah its what makes this so messy, it could be any of the alternatives, but can only really move them around in percentage of plausible with current data, where things in total smells a little more like RU all things considered, with what history they have and capabilities from other situations

[boreal plover]

a big risk for Ru if they were definitively caught (Assuming they'd respect a court that awarded the non-delivery fines against them), but the Ua invasion itself was very high risk, even if Putin thought it wasn't.

[sand delta]

https://kap-arkona.panomax.com/peilturm

🥺 Aric never shared this on his Twitter.

[limber hinge]

Did not know that
Thank you.

FYI my WILD speculation is really simply based upon how I interpret Putin as a person.
In this speculation I am playing amature psychoanalyst, for which I am emmintly NOT qualified, to be sure.

None the less, that is that is the vibe I get, noting more and nothing less.

I would hardly be surprised to be proven wrong.

[sand delta]

Because there is „no OSINT“ as Higgins stated 🤔🤫

[sand delta]

😏 This is 40m in the sky, not 80m under the water.

[sand delta]

I think it was his answer (where he was referring to the underwater part) to a general question that was not limited to the underwater part though

[junior moat]

proposed solution: hand out GoPros to the dolphins and set up instagram for them 🐬

[sand delta]

Oh I know.

[lean dock]

@mossy star i wasn't here for a while, so sorry if it got posted before, this is an interesting report by german public tv about the incidence, many interesting details. it is in germany, but the autotranslation on youtube works very well for it (it has subs in german): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElyvprsExac

(i don't think many of the experts are really interesting, and they miss some things, still some interesting factual things)

[junior moat]

yeah some people here were actually watching it live via screen-share 🙂
but good catch-up for everyone who's joining the channel now

[sand delta]

The charter was until the 23rd, interesting.

I missed that in the livestream.

Did they?

[junior moat]

hm as far as I remember the only thing their email confirmed was "we searched the boat for explosives in connection with NordStream explosions" I don't remember it confirming they found any

I'll try and find that screenshot again

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1633546861540937730/

(For a source)

It reads like "there is a suspicion" yea.

[sand delta]

Still „es besteht der Verdacht“ (there is suspicion) not „es bestand der Verdacht“ (there was)

[junior moat]

23rd seems such a tight timeline for them, especially in connection with the weather/wave data we've seen, it seems impossible

[lean dock]

i also saw no official confirmation for that, but it is in the original publication about the leaks, so only told/leaked by "sources" to the media i guess.

what i have the biggest problems with in the report, is the weird darknet expert. if the suspect was a "pro-ukraine group" and an "influential person in ukraine", like some articles suggest, i expect it to be one of the oligarchs, who either have access and licenses for the explosives in their companies, or else also would use very different sources than the darknet to buy them.

people from the west always forgot what kind of empire and capabilities those people have, surely not far from some smaller states :D

[sand delta]

I think the Dark Net Expert is just the usual "suspect man with lines of green code" plot needed in every modern criminal report.

[lean dock]

and money is not a problem at all then also, what is one or two millions for them...?

[lean dock]

yeah, i hate it when they take such people as experts. he doesn't seem to have a clue about the situation in the post-soviet area...

[sand delta]

Oligarchs are having their own militia 😃

[serene grove]

"darknet expert" could just mean covert comms officer

although they probably just used telegram to coordinate most of it, that's kinda typical for the region afaict

[limber hinge]

RE: Blast Timing
02.03 and 19:03

Exactly 19 hours apart.
Assuming (?) Blast 1 was the major NS1 cluster and blast 2 is the NS2 explosion. They re about 80km apart (?).

Further assuming they were set off by a signal from the boat sometime before Sept 23, and further they were equipped with a count down timer set to 5 or 6 or 7 days.

80km/17 hours is 4.7km/hr or about 2.3 knots, very roughly. If beating directly into the wind, within 40⁰, then this is about the COG one could expect into 20 knots.

So, perhaps Andromeda sent a signal to engage the detonator. The detonators were pre-set to explode on the hour +5/6/7 days. It took them about 17 hours to sail from NS1 to NS2 to trip the detonator.

The locations were chosen to be out of shipping lanes and deep, because there is less likelihood of fishermen or others there.

Andromeda then proceeded to Rostok to return the vessel. Very roughly 240km or close to 50 hours, 2 days sailing time. The 5/6/7 day timer delay gave them Tim to get back, return the vessle, and be long gone before the actual Blast.

More wild conjecture, trying to build a model that fits what is known.

[whole thunder]

Or houses

[tidal knoll]

If it's like NL, I got a discount for buying my first car with cash.

[stark palm]

except that the Southern NS2 blew first

also just remembered this from Nord Stream AG:

“technogenic craters with a depth of 3 to 5 meters were found on the seabed at a distance of about 248 m from each other. The section of the pipe between the craters is destroyed, the radius of pipe fragments dispersion is at least 250 m.”

which would mean 2 charges at each site

so either 2 dives at each site or they spent a long time at the bottom which means a hell of a lot of decompression time

[lean dock]

and their own oil rigs, and their licenses for industrial shaped underwater charges. and access to teams to repair, maintain etc. pipelines. and access to state resources via corruption (if they are not part of the state themselves somehow) and so on. and enough money to get nearly everything done for it.

and some had control over hundreds of thousands of workers, and also whole police forces and so on.

[next lagoon]

@limber hinge They weren't answered in order but here you go;

"x — Yesterday at 9:11 PM
It depends on what you are trying to blow up, how deep it is, etc
1-2 meters is also pretty rough seas and rest is dependent on how deep the target is
Also depends on enemy presence in the area
Also depends on how many guys
100 meters down is deep
You need specialized gas and rigs extensive training. You don’t necessarily need rebreathers on that deep for the ocean, and most rebreathers don’t work that deep
You can dive solo but any military thing is minimum 2 person because risks associated with diving, especially this deep. 4 charges unlikely solo, you need a team because bottom time is very short that deep, the rest can be calculated by determining your residual nitrogen time to avoid dcs. There are dive charts for the bottom time and depth. Ive done 200 ft dives where your bottom time is like 5 min and you have pretty long decompression profiles
Also you need air that lasts that long for the ride down, at depth, and back up. Most single dive rigs don’t have that juice for a dive that deep.
Its not impossible, but its unlikely that it was a surface launched attack. You can hit targets like that but its a different type of diving called saturation diving or using surface supplied air"

last part he said about it there is interesting haven't seen that angle brought up yet

[serene grove]

that matches exactly with what my technical diving instructor buddy has said

[tidal knoll]

The article has been linked before, but thanks to Eliot Higgins for highlighting this tweet:
https://vxtwitter.com/schwartzesque/status/1636392411306905604

[shy fulcrum]

A graphic visualisation of the events on the seabed around NS1 would be a useful - I can give it a shot over the next days.

[limber hinge]

@stark palm
Oliver
Thanks for that reminder.
I am cleaning up my notes.

[limber hinge]

Midwest
Super and thanks a lot.

Just asking if the below is correct?
Pipe - Time - Damage
NS1A - 17:03 - 100M GONE
NS1B - 17:03 - 250M GONE
NS1 leaks 6km apart
NS2A - 02:02 - 100M GONE
NS2B - NA - NO DAMAGE
Is this correct?

[lean dock]

from a german - yeah, paying 2500 euro in cash is still very common here. above 10k you need to identify yourself. else there is no legal limit, and to buy e.g. used cars with cash is a common thing - for much more than just 2.5k.

but what i wonder about, is that it was a rental - that normally only works with a rental collateral, and that is most often a credit card, also in germany.

[shy fulcrum]

There was also a leak from NS2A up north - at 17.03. By then there was little pressure left in the pipe, so this was the smallest of them.

[boreal plover]

timing: silly question I expect, but are the times given when the signal was recorded, or back-tracked to allow for the time taken for the acoustic wave to travel from source to detector? It only makes a few seconds difference I guess, probably academic,..

[limber hinge]

Thank you.

[sand delta]

referring to the echosounder?

No, referring to the seismic detection of the explosions.

https://www.geus.dk/om-geus/nyheder/nyhedsarkiv/2022/sep/seismologi

https://www.snsn.se/stora/Events_20220926.php

[limber hinge]

Oliver
I still like my idea tat the charges were placed by a sub by towing tr charge along the bottom with a breakaway connection.
I think that is a simple and effective method, and we suspect a sub was there because of all the surface activity.

Mabe they were not sure about one charge so they placed another to be certain?

And maybe they missed on one line?

By this time I would expect some kind of damage assessment report detailing the findings for each pipe.

That it has not come out sounds like they are intentionally withholding information.

I am just trying to find some role for the Yacht, not as a surface dive boat.

[pure finch]

Map with depth contours - had other distractions this evening, but tomorrow I should be able to dedicate some time to documenting this/links/adding other vessels.

[subtle finch]

Mola AGB says its totally fine to pay the collateral in cash.

[limber hinge]

That is a roughly $200,000 boat. What would the collateral be I wonder? Hull insurance on that boat is close to 10% of value, maybe more because it is rented out.

[sand delta]

Awesome

[junior moat]

deposit of €2,500 as per the contract https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Charterangebote/Chartervertrag.pdf

[sand delta]

You mean 1500?

[shy fulcrum]

Two “dark ships,” each measuring around 95 to 130 meters long, passed within several miles of the Nord Stream 2 leak sites. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-dark-ships

[rocky wolf]

Interesting!

[velvet rain]

Good point. I only looked at the hull length categories before.

Another thing I missed before: "Die Anzahlung des Charterpreises in Höhe von 50% ist innerhalb von 7 Tagen ab Vertragsschluss fällig, der Rest 8 Wochen vor Törnbeginn. Bei Buchung einer Einweg- oder Karibikcharter beträgt die Anzahlung 50% innerhalb einer Zahlungsfrist von 7 Tagen, die Restzahlung ist 12 Wochen vor Törnbeginn fällig. Der Zahlungseingang hat innerhalb der angegebenen Fristen zu erfolgen."
So they would have to pay quite some time in advance. That explains why the company was involved.

[junior moat]

ah yes. so they actually were paying via wire transfer or credit-card probably

and only the deposit was placed in cash

[shy fulcrum]

These comments on @stark palm Twitter should be considered. A pig in the pipeline would do the job easier and more inconspicuous than a scenario with small sailboat and divers. The Andromeda looks more and more like a red herring to me.

[stark palm]

No pressure differential means the pig can’t move

[junior moat]

pig is impossible.
(a) for reason Oliver says
(b) from the pictures we have from the seafloor, the way pipes were displaced means explosives were outside the pipes

[pure vine]

a pig explosion would have the pipes bursting outwards

this is kind of like the pattern we'd see from an internal explosion

[shy fulcrum]

Reason (a) - I have no idea. Reason (b) - If you look at pipeline accidents, they leave huge craters. (I don't think it was an accident, btw)

But ok, if a pig is impossible - the two "dark ships" remain very interesting.

[junior moat]

it's true re: (b) I could imagine a scenario where there was only 1 explosion, and then due to the displacement of the pipe, it ruptured at another spot 248m away again, leaving another crater due to the blast created purely by the pressure differential

[sand delta]

Are people suspecting the dark ships to be military vessels?

Or could it just as well be soemthing else?

[shy fulcrum]

They are unidentified vessels with a size demanding AIS to be active.

[inner sandal]

Background: SpaceKnow, a US company, developed a technique using satellite data to detect large ships when AIS is not working. There's a post about it on their website from last June.

https://spaceknow.com/blog/sea-spark-ship-detection/

The Wired article publicises the technique, which the company is seeking to develop commercially, but it's hard to tell how relevant the "dark ships" discovery is. They are said to have "passed within several miles of the Nord Stream 2 leak sites" in "the days immediately before" the leaks were discovered. That's all we are told.

[junior moat]

the thing is there is a lot of dark ships in the Baltic all the time. Many warships turn off their AIS for extended periods of time any given day .. so it's really hard to know how relevant this information is, unless SpaceKnow releases information on how close they were to the explosion sites, and at which time

[raw nexus]

Yes, we we know that but not more

[shy fulcrum]

Sailing without AIS comes with a risk, also for military vessels. HNoMS Helge Ingstad had AIS in passive mode: https://maritime-executive.com/article/helge-ingstad-collision-inexperience-of-frigate-s-bridge-team

[pure finch]

It should be noted that the EU has a system in place for monitoring/detecting dark ships/suspicious behaviour via AIS/SAR -
https://www.emsa.europa.eu/lrit/download/5100/3206/23.html

[sand delta]

Right. But what i meant was whether the size of the ships would mostly fit with them being military vessels as they seem too short to be container ships but too long to be regular private boats. I really have no idea about this stuff that's why i'm asking you guys

[pure finch]

Note this detection used TerraSAR-X.

[junior moat]

I would definitely guess military vessels, since merchant vessels being found not to use AIS will have to pay hefty fines ... but have to admit I'm also no expert on vessel sizes

[sand delta]

Alright thx tho

[inner sandal]

For what it's worth, SpaceKnow said it detected 25 ships in the area over a 90-day period and all but two were using AIS. Wired says the two "dark" ships were there a few days before the leaks were discovered.

[junior moat]

I've personally found many more ships turning off AIS in that 90-day timeframe.. but maybe what they mean is that using their satellite data they already filter out known warships and then are left with 'unknown' vessels or some similar procedure

[pure finch]

This was ~106 days, and shows USNS Patuxent operating with (likely) two military vessels that weren't on AIS, during BALTOPS22:
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/12 June Labels - HL.mp4

It's normal for military vessels to operate without AIS.

[shy fulcrum]

It is normal in rehearsal situations, like the BALTOPS22. Not sure if it's normal in the superbusy Baltic Sea. But no expert!

[junior moat]

just as one random example here you have russian vessel Sedov disappearing from AIS (on marinetraffic) for three days from 21 Sept 2022
sometimes it could also be that coast-operated receivers don't pick up the signal, and satellite-operated receivers maybe also need a certain signal strength

russian vessel "Mir" disappearing on 21 Sept, only reappears 23rd Sept

[rocky wolf]

Denmark picked up Sedov (273510000)

• 2022-09-22
• 2022-09-24
• 2022-09-28

[shy fulcrum]

Looks like the Sedov was on collision course with Athena Seaways?

[junior moat]

yes maybe that's why it turned on AIS briefly in exactly that spot 😉

[rocky wolf]

On the 22nd

54.931253,16.502433

aisdk-2022-09-22.csv:22/09/2022 16:19:19,Class A,273510000,54.931253,16.502433,Under way using engine,0.0,0.2,166.6,113,Unknown,,,Undefined,,,,Undefined,,,,AIS,,,,

Full line for the 22nd

[pure finch]

Here's another example: Yantar switching off its AIS near Denmark back in 2021:
https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1439102674415276032?lang=en

Hans de Vreij (@hdevreij)

Current position of the Russian navy's research ship Yantar. It looks like Danish navy vessel HDMS Absalon had a closer look at her. During almost three days Yantar turned off the AIS position signal, raising suspicions about her activities. The ship is able to tamper with cables

Likes

101

Twitter · Sep 18, 2021, 5:43 AM

[rocky wolf]

Just for context... would it be possible to safely store explosives under the pipelines (thus not visible) for a year? (thinking about water movement, corrosion etc)

Should be possible with some kind of robust casing right ?

[junior moat]

ah yes I think my current plan on marinetraffic does not include satellite-received AIS anymore, so probably have to first decide to pay them a lot of money again, before I can confirm when the vessels had AIS turned off
so take these images with a grain of salt

[shy fulcrum]

I wonder if this means that ALL other ships were identified, because at some point they had their AIS on - except these two.

[junior moat]

but I do remember that even with satellite AIS included these two ships disappear from AIS for some time

[junior moat]

yeah that would be great if SpaceKnow would provide some more insight what they mean with this exactly

[rocky wolf]

it looks like you could be right though, some kind of data transmit is turned off it seems, compare this data

to this

[sand delta]

Almost entire September was the Nato maneuver Northern Coasts, last year longer than usual.

[sand delta]

Can we exclude the two German warships being the two dark ones?

[rocky wolf]

This is Sedovs lat/longitude data on a map

From the Danish AIS-collection of data

[junior moat]

interesting.
actually can you confirm where the AIS data stops from those files, is the geographic boundary exactly the Danish EEZ boundary ? or it also collects AIS from outside the EEZ boundary ?

good to know by the way that Sedov is using a class A transmitter, that should in theory mean pretty high quality data if they have it turned on

[rocky wolf]

I can share the notebook (jupyter) and the csv-file for sedov if that helps. there is a gap between 22:nd and 24:th for example and. Movement starts on the 22:nd and then north east to the second marker, then straight north to the third one and west to where the markers are really dense

I'll see if I can make an animation out of the data

[shy fulcrum]

There is a lot of information about warship activity on the days before in this article - its old news, but worth looking into, I guess: https://corporate-trust.blog/2022/11/17/scandinavians-took-a-hard-look-days-before-nordstream-exploded/

[junior moat]

yeah I think learning a bit more about Sedov and Mir could be quite interesting (although these are officially not military vessels I believe)

[shy fulcrum]

Take a look at the Sedov MMSI: 273510000: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:351018/mmsi:273510000/imo:7946356/vessel:SEDOV

Now, THAT is a mystery ship 😁

[junior moat]

that'd be quite epic that this was the ship to plant the explosives instead of the tiny Andromeda 😉

wonder why marinetraffic rates the AIS-transmission of this ship so highly, when it's clearly not always on

Vessel MIR is quite a beauty as well 🙂 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:345293/mmsi:273133800/imo:8501701/vessel:MIR

[shy fulcrum]

Wow! Those two beasts could wreak some serious damage! Ship a hoy!

[junior moat]

do note though I believe both are basically always using engines to navigate around the Baltic, not actually sailing
https://www.rosmorport.com/parusniki/ <-- mir can do 11kn with the engine, and is a pretty new ship, built only in 1987
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS_Mirhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS_Mir

[rocky wolf]

Mir was moving about on the 21st according to the DK AIS-data

first data on the 21st appears 01:33 and runs up until 11:03

Sails in southwest bound and sails out to the east at 11:03

[velvet rain]

From what I've seen, the limiting factor appears to be transmission range. They don't filter out values outside their their EEZ. There are a lot of location outliers in the dataset.

For example, the dataset has a few points where ships like that report doing >700 °/min turns at 80 kn in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you have a distributed data collection system with a sufficient number of data reporting entities, you will encounter all kinds of weird transmission errors.

[junior moat]

okay good to know at least that probably means they're providing us with the 'rawest' data possible, not pre-filtering stuff

[pure vine]

insert the bimonthly post "huh why is this fr24 flight doing weird turns

[shy fulcrum]

It's a sailship for gods sake. Sharp turns are what they do.

[velvet rain]

Yeah, and the AIS data transmission protocol is incredibly cursed, so weird stuff happens.

[velvet rain]

Regarding the topic of transmission range, you can see quite well in this map how the trace density decreases as the ship leaves range towards the East. As the ship begins to leave the coverage area of the receivers, more and more transmission errors happen that result in dropped packets.

[serene grove]

what if the yacht was towing the charges and there was no sub at all? I think it's feasible with a bit of instrumentation and patience

[stark palm]

I have actually been onboard the Sedov.

[serene grove]

military ships and even military supply shipping operated by the merchant marine routinely operate with passive-mode AIS and no running lights...I would say more often than not, and whether or not they are in a busy shipping lane appears to be of no concern lmao https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fitzgerald_and_MV_ACX_Crystal_collision

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_John_S._McCain_and_Alnic_MC_collision

(also throwback to 2017 when the US pacific fleet was crashing and/or setting their own ships on fire as if it was the new national pastime)

[pure vine]

if i had a dollar for how many us pacific fleet ships crashed in 2017 id have two dollars

[serene grove]

oh yeah I was thinking the bonhomme richard fire was 2017 too but I guess that was 2020

so yeah I'm assuming whoever said that the spaceknow analysis included throwing out all known military vessels was correct

which...not sure if I'd limit my suspects to non-military tbh

also you could certainly send a PIG down a pipe filled with stationary gas, they have these new self-propelled ones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXwDb0pQXhM

(still not feasible based on the damage patterns though)

[shy fulcrum]

One thing these crashes have in common is an incredible level of stupidity and/or incompetence.

[serene grove]

according to what I've been able to dig up, there are...how should we say...I think they call it "command climate" in the military, command climate issues yes, with the pacific fleet (but that's a bit off topic here hahaha)

anyway my point is that it's standard practice even for busy shipping lanes and things usually work out fine unless your radar techs are all on shore leave and your helmsman can't see or steer

[limber hinge]

After the completely idiotic string of Arkeigh Burke accidents the Navy changed their AIS regulations and now they are ON MORE OFTEN. Not always, but they at least have to take the damn thing our of the cupboard. One incident it was put away, not clear anyone knew how to use it. But that wasn't the worse bit anyway.

[limber hinge]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS_Sedov

[sand delta]

AIS is only a situational awareness aid.

You’re explicitly told that you are never to use it for collision avoidance, you do not need it if you keep a proper lookout.

The Helge Ingstad was largely due to the Norwegian bridge team thinking that the oil tanker was the coastline because its light were blending in, and then there being so many different people on the bridge, many of whom were completely undertrained, that they just froze when put into the situation.

And then likewise the Fitzgerald and the McCain, in both cases it was ultimately the fault of them completely screwing up implementing the collision regulations, a complete disregard for hours of rest (so a lot of people were exhausted) and again, more being undertrained.

[limber hinge]

Reading also about how the Naval promotion system works, it is a mess. Does not encourage professionalism.

[sand delta]

The U.S. also rammed a minesweeper on top of a Filipino protected reef

It had to be cut up into pieces and lifted off.

And guess why?

[limber hinge]

The best/worst wat the Arleigh Burke that collided with a tanker in the ME. No report on that but someone leaked the deck audio tapes. The Capt was a complete idiot.

[sand delta]

The scale of the NGA chart they are using had the reef in the wrong position by 8 nmi.

It had been corrected on the lower scale, but they never bothered to zoom in.

And obviously the NGA screwed up by not doing the correction on all scales, but it’s still pretty piss poor.

[limber hinge]

Chart over zooming is a common problem. Has led to many wrecks and grounding. That is why I prefer raster charts, they will highlight a danger.

We are getting off topic but not all charts are to the same Earrh model, I have sailed 1/2 mile deep through headlands, according to the chart.
But PRIBABLY not relevant to Baltic?

[sand delta]

I’d be very surprised if a merchant ship was operating in the Baltic without using Admiralty or NGA WGS-84 charts.

Maybe a Russian ship might have its GNSS and charts on a Russian datum, but can’t imagine the Minerva Julie would.

Fwiw, in regard to the Minerva Julie

Not sure when it was built, but at the very latest it’s going to needed ECDIS since July 2014.

[limber hinge]

That is not irrelevant to this investigation.
One, including myself, must always remember that just because we think something is logical does not mean others do.
Or to discount some action because it is "stupid".
Stupid is the main cause if newspaper headlines.
And stupid is thick in vertical command structures.

[sand delta]

You’re also kinda constrained by the rules. You might say “why is that ship not reacting” for example.

In a crossing situation, one vessel is the stand on vessel, it is required under the rules to keep its course and speed, the other vessel is responsible for keeping out of its way. Similarly with overtaking, the vessel being overtaken keeps its course and speed, the other vessel has to manoeuvre around it.

As the stand on vessel, you’re only allowed take action when it becomes apparent that the other vessel has no intention of manoeuvring as required, and you only must take action when it becomes apparent that only action by your own vessel will avoid the collision.

All very “eh” standards, but you must remember that these rules only work if everyone acts predictably, if stand on vessels keep manoeuvring, then they don’t work. And likewise, lazy, untrained, arrogant, etc give way vessels just don’t care and might often try to run your bow and play chicken.

So what happens in collisions is one vessel is complying with what it has to do, and the other vessel is being crewed by morons, that’s all it takes.

[elfin cradle]

Not likely. What if the rope/cable breaks or get stuck on something, and you loose the explosives?
The explosives would fit without any problem inside a cabin on the sailboat. Why make one extra step?

[velvet rain]

Also you couldn't practically attach mines or other towed explosives to a yacht in a busy marina.

[sand delta]

Theoretically* you only need to start towing them when you’re in the area.

[serene grove]

no you leave port with everything on board and lower the charges down one at a time later

throw one of those fish cameras on there and you can even see what you're doing

[velvet rain]

What problem would that solve then?

[sand delta]

Needing a diver I suppose.

I do think the idea of having a towed bomb with magnets is a bit mad though.

[serene grove]

yeah the comment from gill I was replying to was like "I'm looking for something the yacht can do that isn't diving"

but now we've got two ghost ships both around 100m long, those are certainly options for a diving platform

[sand delta]

Piece of Nordstream pipe

[junior moat]

turns out the Sedov doing her thing in the vicinity of the pipes was even picked up by some Dutch journalist
https://benevolent--cassata--ea15ad-netlify-app.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[sand delta]

Can you reliably get magnets to click together with that much concrete? It would have to be awfully strong.

And at that point you’d probably have picked up every little bit of metallic material on the seafloor.

[serene grove]

oh absolutely yes

but it's more fun if you use an electromagnet to get it to come close and then a permanent magnet will be enough to keep it there

[elfin cradle]

Somebody needs to go to that pipe and put a supermagnet to it and test!

[sand delta]

It’s in Kotka, Finland.

[velvet rain]

Should be relatively easy to calculate, actually.

[sand delta]

We were able to get pictures from onboard Andromeda, surely we have a Finnish person from that area

[velvet rain]

Maybe Oliver has a guy for that

[sand delta]

Oliver has a guy for everything.

That said, Kotka was where the pipes were being stored by Nordstream AG.

https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/html_img25.html

[junior moat]

there's still quite a lot of those pipe segments stored at Europipe GmbH somewhere .. they're now supposed to be reused to connect some LNG terminals to the grid

[sand delta]

https://www.haminakotka.com/current-issues/memorial-nord-stream-2-project-katariinanniemi

From 2019.

There’s actually a Nordstream 1 and a Nordstream 2 pipe.

[elfin cradle]

I watched a video about Panzerkampfwagen Tiger 2 yesterday and they had a layer of Zimmerit to prevent magnetic mines to get stuck. And the thickness of that layer wasnt thicc (6mm), as the magnetostatic field decreases very rapidly.

[sand delta]

Are joints exposed?

I’m curious because I read that the concrete is being done to keep the pipes down as a weight, because otherwise the gas would make them float.

So there may be the joints where you could attach something.

[elfin cradle]

No but not covered by concrete.

[sand delta]

More relevant to the diver theory though, the lack of magnetism would scupper both a diver and a towed charge, but a diver could probably swim down to a joint.

[elfin cradle]

Joints have layers of plastic around them.

[sand delta]

So still level of standoff from the pipe, the idea of a magnet attached charge at all is a bit weird so.

I suppose if you weighed down your bag of charges it wouldn’t matter,

[elfin cradle]

A heat shrink sleave is wrapped around the joints and then polyurethane is injected in a mould between the concrete coatings. This make the pipeline able to flex during its placement so it isnt too rigird.

Short (12min) introduction about the construction of the pipline:
https://youtu.be/jzibtVSamrY

[boreal plover]

...especially in the vicinity of known munitions dumping ground (and presumably there are random stray uncharted UXO scattered around, too.)

[serene grove]

still less crazy than trying to dive it from the andromeda

[sand delta]

Then what are explosive residue doing onboard a chart yacht

[serene grove]

from when they were hooking up the drag line to the charges? :p

[sand delta]

I mean that the Andromeda story is just too damn weird.

[serene grove]

also yes

[sand delta]

It was found because an investigator is a hobby sailor.

So he decided to call all the charter companies asking about sus booking.

So then they find a booking with Mola that was apparently sus, and find it was paid for by a Polish company with two Ukrainian owners.

Then they search the damn thing and find explosive residues.

They also find out it was on Christiansø from the 16-18th.

And there was 6 people speaking a Slavic language

And instead of loading stuff in Höhe Dune, there’s witnesses seeing them load in Wiek.

Either this thing was involved directly, or it’s being done as a very useful false flag to blame someone.

[pure vine]

maybe the andromeda ferried the divers and they dived from another boat?

[sand delta]

A larger boat would be much more detectable.

Whether through SAR, AIS, LRIT or whatever though.

[elfin cradle]

cough Planted tip cough /sarcasm

[rocky wolf]

Maskirovka.

The one story that has enough interesting, suspicious elements that everybody chases after it

[sand delta]

Which lends to the false flag theory.

[rocky wolf]

meanwhile this could have been done like 2021 or beginning of 2022

[serene grove]

yup those two SpaceKnow dark ships could be the diving platforms that they got ferried out to @pure vine

at least I think the timelines match up

but if they took the munitions with them that would also explain the residue

(although I still wonder how many other similar boats would also "test positive for explosives")

[junior moat]

the investigators definitely have available

• perfect imaging of the blast sites' seafloor
• lab analyses of sediment
• recorded radar tracks of Andromeda

so they know

• how much explosives were used exactly at each site
• what type of explosives (and probably even the manufacturer)
• where did Andromeda spend what amount of time

-> now if this whole thing is supposed to be even a plausible false-flag, it has to be at least a tiny little bit believable it could have been possible to pull this off

[tired monolith]

would they even need it to be in current conditions? Sure if it was happening without any other implications it would be required

but if both RU and US/NATO is happy with murky waters and no one can prove its UA (if you assume false flag pointing to UA but cant or wont prove that either)

no one really get much more negative outcomes from it as long as the war runs and its not a risk for anything more coming further out of control related to it

[junior moat]

I don't think they can count on investigation results being kept sealed for a long time, there's just too many people involved, and too much interest in the matter.

It's 4-5 countries, each with multiple institutions, and even some 'civilians' involved. Something more is bound to get leaked over time, not everyone will stay quiet forever.
So they better prepare for that scenario and produce trustworthy results for a day when this might end up in some courts

[tired monolith]

for Russia? Their plan is a new world order, they dont count on losing and having to answer for anything

[junior moat]

okay, 4 countries then 😉 count russia out of it

[tired monolith]

IF it is Russia I think the other countries are fine with taking the risk that some info eventually might leak but that it then would have less impact on the current urgent war activities. If they have conclusive proof they are probably more than fine with it getting out eventually

[junior moat]

yeah all I was trying to say is that if Andromeda is a false-flag at least they would have had to sail out and spend the 'correct' (i.e. believable) time at each location, and not just sail out of Wiek, chill in the sun for a week, smear a bit of explosives on the table and call it a day 😉 also had to use the same explosive .. etc

[serene grove]

ooooh right cause if it was crappy then the investigators would have released their false flag findings pretty much right away

kinda like how the kashoggi impersonator with the wrong shoes got outed pretty much right away

[pure finch]

One thing I'd like to get an understanding of is the risk calculus for the various nations:-
specifically, what was the plan in case something went terribly wrong: e.g. diver dying, diver being lost at sea, explosives detonating prematurely etc.

Would having a yacht on standby, or even a tanker unknowingly overhead serve as some kind of deniable backup?

Who would have the most to lose if the operation got rumbled before the pipes were destroyed?

[sand delta]

Surely the solution to that would be something similar to this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNCxV0B2iyc

Yea, it would kill you of course, but if the diver knows he's screwed, running out of air or something, he knows he just hits the vest/inflatable and he's taken back to the surface for recovery.

Or likewise, a light rope line attached to a small buoy on the surface, if he dies, you have a rope to the diver and you just gently lift him back up to the surface.

There's nothing for him to be caught on, r.e. the seabed, absent shoving yourself under the pipeline I doubt you'd have much difficult gently lifting the body up.

[limber hinge]

Interesting reading on Russian subs
http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Spy-Submarine-BS-64.html

[limber hinge]

And a summary of Russian assets
23 minute video
https://youtu.be/2H_tFKT9EXU

[elfin cradle]

Too large and too noisy. Plus nuclear submarine cant get through the Danish straits in underwater mode.

[limber hinge]

Kaliningrad?

From Wiki

In contrast to the three other Russian fleets, the Baltic Fleet's submarine capabilities are extremely modest with just one older Kilo-class boat deployed in 2020, largely for training purposes. Nevertheless, a strengthening of these capabilities in the 2020s was being considered with various options (including both Improved Kilos and/or new Lada-class submarines) apparently on the table.[26

Has this report been debunked?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/29/nord-stream-russian-warships-submarines-spotted-near-sabotaged/

[hoary maple]

I havent read the full article, however, that says June?

[elfin cradle]

Neither Kilo or Lada class is Nuclear. They are small compared to a nuclear submarine.
Baltic sea has the newest Improved-Kilo class submarine, the Ufa.

[elfin cradle]

That would be right after Balltops 2022. Feels fitting that the Russians would plant bombs after NATO have had mine clearing exercises and blame that NATO put explosives during their exercise.

[boreal plover]

if they picked up the explosives from the dark vessel(s), perhaps they had enough contact with it to leave detectable traces on the Andromeda on the return leg.

[sand delta]

But that’s not following the one rule of doing literally anything, is it?

KISS - Keep it simple, stupid.

If we assume for a second that the Andromeda is involved in some regard, what benefit does bringing other larger vessels into the plot provide?

[serene grove]

better diving equipment

more electrical power

same reason subs and even some destroyers have tender vessels basically

[sand delta]

Then why involve the Andromeda at all.

[serene grove]

so you can get people and equipment back and forth

same reason big boats usually have small boats around :p

well, not usually, but anything that needs to be putting people on and off without an actual port

[sand delta]

If it came down to it, it wouldn’t be that hard for a large vessel to launch it’s rescue boat to quickly run to land to pick stuff up.

[serene grove]

think like a pilot shuttle boat

yeah but that's gonna attract attention and it will be obviously linked to the big boat

this works as a shuttle without people immediately saying "oh I know where that's going"

[sand delta]

Even with AIS off, a big boat sitting over the explosion site is going to be detectable.

[elfin cradle]

It would be harder to dive from a tanker than from a sail boat, but a tanker could have fit a ROV and explosives.
But a tanker would have harder time to stay in same place vs a sail boat that can turn on a dime compared to a thicc tanker.

[sand delta]

I don't see any way the Minerva Julie's crew could have been wittingly involved.

[serene grove]

yeah that's why SpaceKnow saw them hanging out there through the telescope lmao

definitely don't tell the crew for sure

[sand delta]

Unwittingly providing cover to sub-surface operations, sure. But using some random ass crew on a random ass Greek ship, briefing them on such an insane plan isn't something you're going to be able to keep secret.

[serene grove]

you tell the crew you have some rich tourists or something that need fancy diving gear

to go see a shipwreck or something

[sand delta]

It's ratings are likely all Filipino's, and if it's officers aren't all Greek, they are going to be a mix of Ukrainian and other Slavic countries.

[serene grove]

nothing even out of the ordinary there

[sand delta]

An oil tanker doesn't do that sort of stuff.

[velvet rain]

And then kill the entire crew so they never watch the news again?

[serene grove]

considering it has vaguely putin-shaped fingerprints on it would keep pretty much everyone quiet I think

[sand delta]

The Filipino's would see a perfect way to get their family living a nice cozy life in the US/Western Europe.

[serene grove]

but that might be a simplistic way to look at it when most of the crew is probably from countries outside the range of a poison squad

[sand delta]

Absent killing them.

[serene grove]

yeah with the bigger boats I really didn't think about the crewing issue

it's not like you can just put everyone on shore leave, boats need to actually be operated to work

[sand delta]

I've worked on all types of merchant shipping, I'm well aware.

[serene grove]

with the andromeda you can realistically run it with one or maybe two people if the weather was bad

no loose ends there, or maybe just one to pay off

or pick off depending on whether you need them later

[raw nexus]

Are we sailing in La La Land now?

[sand delta]

If I was on an oil tanker and the captain was like "Oh yea, we're deliverying some diving equipment to a yacht" I'd be like "what the absolute fuck is going on"

[serene grove]

wait are we sure the two dark ships are oil tankers?

[sand delta]

I'm talking about the Minerva Julie.

[serene grove]

yeah I had ruled it out tbh

[sand delta]

Do we have the satellite imagery of the two dark ships?

[serene grove]

partially because oil tanker

not good imagery no

[serene grove]

idk if that's a reference to something but baltic sea shipwreck diving is a real thing 😄 https://projectbaltacar.eu/

[sand delta]

fwiw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJfO3RhqFDc

[raw nexus]

Yeah, but I'm catching up after absence and have the feeling this is a bit out of control here.

[sand delta]

The Graf Zeppelin, which is at a depth of 80m in the Baltic.

I don't think we need to have an immense amount of gear.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2Lb7kh_xP8

[civic rapids]

Back in June last year, Ru did seem to have an exercise that was possibly spontaneous reaction. The Swedish king and Finnish President were evacuated from "Åland" (?) and around that time, a chemical slick was seen in the "Bothnian Sea". There was a chunk of attention in the news at the time, but went quiet quick tbf. I figured these having any connection would have been checked and ruled out early on after NS explosions. Quickly found some articles from that time: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/09/huge-mystery-spill-detected-in-baltic-off-swedish-coast https://www.newsweek.com/finland-sweden-nato-russia-putin-aland-islands-1714647

[sand delta]

I'm going to see if they ever gave more information on that spill.

[elfin cradle]

Dosnt the Coastal Guard go out and take samples when these things happens? To late see if it can be traced to a ship?

Or is that only when it happens close to the coast?

[sand delta]

They do, but it's exceptionally hard to tie it to any ship.

God, that was hard to find.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/vasternorrland/stort-utslapp-i-bottenhavet-fran-gavle-upp-till-harnosand

The theory is a discharge from a passing ship cleaning a tank.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/over-160-kemikalieutslapp-avslojade-pa-svenska-hav-men-ingen-domd

And more broadly, Swedish waters have an issue with maritime pollution.

On a related note.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/natos-stoltenberg-eus-von-der-leyen-travel-north-sea-platform-2023-03-17/

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1636708470287155201

Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg)

Great visit with @vonderleyen & @jonasgahrstore to Troll A platform off the coast of #Norway, critical to reducing Europe’s dependency on Russian gas. #NATO is stepping up to protect critical infrastructure & working with the EU to boost resilience.

Likes

565

Retweets

123

Twitter · Mar 17, 2023, 12:38 PM

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1636685148702883842

Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen)

Glad to visit this impressive gas rig, 60 km off the 🇳🇴 coast, with our key partners

@jonasgahrstore
@jensstoltenberg @NATO

Climate & energy policies can no longer be separated from security issues.

Today’s joint visit is a strong signal of our unity ↓ https://t.co/7IGsiq1BCG

Likes

659

Retweets

125

Twitter · Mar 17, 2023, 11:05 AM

https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1636828617345777679

Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate)

On NYT's podcast The Daily, @julianbarnes tells @mikiebarb that he discovered that a "pro-Ukrainian group" -- not a government like the US -- bombed Nord Stream after he and his colleagues started asking "the right questions." After then, US officials gave them the right answer.

Likes

318

▶ Play video

Twitter · Mar 17, 2023, 8:35 PM

Anyone know more?

[tired monolith]

know more about what?

[sand delta]

Julian Barnes is claiming that he figured out it was a pro-Ukrainian group?

[tired monolith]

next tweet links to the podcast and transcript

feels like hes selling social media engagement

[sand delta]

yea

[boreal plover]

True. And also, Occam's Razor. But the "Andromeda alone" scenario would also have made attackers' jobs unnecessarily difficult, for all the reasons gone into, here - cargo capacity, station keeping, diver access, etc.

[tired monolith]

from what has been said these rumors has been around for a long time, naturally it would be known and discussed by the gov agencies - and if they either dont want things to be known or doesnt have better things to give them they are are going to answer with some vague stuff that gets the journalists to bug off for a w hile

so shouldnt be too hard for journalists to get some "confirmations" if they have some vague stuff - but to lean so heavy into this being the big discovery and not publish anything conclusive seems a bit reckless or opportunistic

[boreal plover]

so then you (they) have what sounds like non-trivial problems of running multiple ~80m dives from Andromeda. Which is what makes the idea of one or both dark ships having a role, appealing - to me anyway. Keep It Simple As Practical, -- ie., not to the extent of making the job far more difficult than it needs to be.

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/RothLindberg/status/1602621978371825666

David Roth-Lindberg (@RothLindberg)

"Immediately before the attack on NordStream, the company SpaceKnow, discovered two ships at the crime scene with deactivated trackers. ... They were tracked down using satellite data analysis.
They were Swedish."

Likes

190

Twitter · Dec 13, 2022, 11:10 AM

[boreal plover]

ISTR reading about long-standing issue of ships quietly flushing tanks and other wastes out, in places/ways they're not supposed to, causing pollution problems. So, yeah.

[sand delta]

I think we know the two Swedish vessels though.

[tired monolith]

shipping been pretty global for a long time, not a big shock theres tons of exploiting to that

too little standardized regulation

[sand delta]

About 5 days ago, someone shared a Swedish navy spokesman confirming Swedish vessels were in the area

[sand delta]

MARPOL. The issue is enforcement, not a lack of standardisation.

[tired monolith]

potato potato, you are right but its kinda 2 sides of the same coin, one cant work properly without the other

[sand delta]

https://www.dn.se/sverige/marinen-i-uppdrag-vid-kaliningrad-fore-explosionerna/

There you go, the identity of SpaceKnow's two ghost ship's has been identified.

[serene grove]

swedish navy? LOL

something tells me it wasn't sweden lmao

[boreal plover]

of all the platforms in all the fields Jens and UvdL could have visited,..

[serene grove]

surprised that spaceknow didn't identify them as swedish navy tbh, you'd think they wouldn't have missed something like that

[sand delta]

Yea, but the idea that you're getting away with not broadcasting AIS that close to land is a bit mad.

[serene grove]

standard military stuff unfortunately :/

[sand delta]

So the only explanation is that it's a warship, since they don't have to.

[serene grove]

ehhhhh tankers disappear from AIS all the time

it's not massively out of the ordinary

[sand delta]

From MarineTraffic detection you mean.

Which just means they are out range of the coast.

[serene grove]

nah I'm talking about the kind of stuff that tankertrackers reports on

lot of sketchy sanctions related tanker shenanigans going on in certain areas

[sand delta]

So, not off multiple Western countries.

You'll get away with this deep sea, I guess, and maybe in the less "regulated" parts of the world.

The idea you're turning off AIS in the Baltic and getting away with it is laughable

The entirety of the Baltic is Sea Area A1, meaning it's all in range of a coastal VHF station (i.e. Coast Guard). AIS is based on VHF transmissions, so it's the same range. There is nowhere in the Baltic that is outside of AIS detection range, and the Coast Guard watch officer in "Lyngby MRCC" or whatnot, in addition to managing incoming radio calls, is sitting in front of a monitor with the EU's SafeSeasNet (which in addition to other stuff, like Denmark's own AIS receivers) allows the operator to get the data from the Swedish/German receivers on it, and is looking at what the ships are up to.

The idea that you can fall off the screen and not be noticed (and it's worth mentioning, it's definitely going to trigger alarm on that system) is non sensical.

[serene grove]

I guess the AIS requirements are a pretty good reason to use something as small as andromeda then

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6_SEfgJDk

[nimble gull]

Didn’t listen to the whole podcast. That audio clip is maddening lol

[sand delta]

These mark all the 700 SafeSeaNet connected AIS receivers in the EU, (11 years ago).

https://emsa.europa.eu/ssn-main/ssn-how-it-works.html

https://emsa.europa.eu/ssn-main/ssn-how-it-works/items.html?cid=113&id=3206

You'll get away with it off Timbuktu sure, but not off a European coast.

[limber hinge]

That map tracking the Swedish Naval ships just screams sub to me.
I am guessing that the Baltic has monitoring devices that listen for subs.

The monitors picked up the sub and went out looking for it. But did not find it.

But then the monitors picked it up at the Southern location. So the chased after it there. Probably did not find it.

Then they went back to the first spot.

Then they scooted over to Kaliningrad to try to catch it as it came back to dock

The Minervia Julia was out there Sept 6 to 13.
According to Oliver Alexander, there were German naval ships in the area Sept 7 to Sept 13, about that time and also American ships.

So 2 suspect periods
Sept 6 to 13 and now
Sept 22 to 24
And Andromeda being out Sept 6 to Sep 23.

I have heard the diesel subs running on battery are quieter than nuclear subs. I am guessing we have only sporadic spotting.

[raw nexus]

Attention. Aaron is a Russian paid propagandist.

[sand delta]

For some reason I was thinking it was someone here, thought I remembered Maté being @'ed here.

[tired monolith]

in this case hes just signalboosting a NYT podcast speculating tbh, if NYT hadnt done that it would prob look much more suspicious

but very typical that RU supporters latch on to anything vague that supports their narrative and starts hammering it

[limber hinge]

Vessle date data
Minerva Julia drifting
Sept 6 to Sept 13
Swedish Naval activity
Sept 6 to Sept 13
German/USA naval activity
Sept 22 to Sep 24
Andromeda charter
Sept 6 to Sept 23

Make me suspicious of Andromeda, but not as a dive platform.
Communications platform.

2 crews each consisting of
Skipper
Watch stander etc
Communications tech

3-4 hour watches

Passes info between sub and base. Andromeda would be an acceptable choice for this activity.

[elfin cradle]

Why would the sub need a communications platform?

[sand delta]

I suppose a passive ability to call off the operation of whoever was behind it thought ships were coming close.

[shy fulcrum]

It seems to me you have identified the K31 Visby, (MMSI: 265500330) - for most of this trip it had AIS on, by the looks of it. Have you read this article? https://corporate-trust.blog/2022/11/17/scandinavians-took-a-hard-look-days-before-nordstream-exploded/

[sand delta]

It has it's AIS on going through the TSS Bornholmsgat.

Yep.

[elfin cradle]

A sub dont need a surface ship to that. A submarine´s antenna is much less noticeable and suspicious than having a big boat to just receive or send messages.

[shy fulcrum]

It was on very close to the explosion site as well. What makes you think this was SpaceKnows "dark ship"?

[sand delta]

I'm aware, just explaining Gill's hypothesis.

[sand delta]

A non-military ship with it's AIS off there would be utter madness.

[shy fulcrum]

The Visby is a military ship.

[sand delta]

And the Visby corvette is approximately the right size.

[sand delta]

Exactly.

[elfin cradle]

Nah, visby is 72m long. SpaceKnows says between 95-130m

[shy fulcrum]

The dark ships had no AIS, the Visby AIS was on near the site.

[elfin cradle]

I wonder how much Visby would show up on SAR, as its a "stealth ship". But the reduced radar cross section is more likley for other wavelengths and angles.

[shy fulcrum]

The Visby had AIS on. No need for SAR in this case.

[sand delta]

https://biznesalert.com/will-space-reveal-the-truth-behind-nord-stream-explosions/

Most likely, these are ships belonging to the Danish navy, which performed routine patrols of its waters. Is it possible that their AIS was off? Yes, this is actually often the case. It is therefore too early to draw too far-reaching conclusions from this data.

Denmark has numerous vessels fitting the bill.

It's frigates of course, but also the larger of it's patrol vessels.

[elfin cradle]

Only the Thetis-class patrol vessel

[sand delta]

Iver Huitfeldt, Absalon and Thetis so.

[shy fulcrum]

Well, if you actually read the article by Okada, you will find the Danish Navy patrol boat P524 searching around the same area - also with its AIS on. I guess thats Thetis-class.

[sand delta]

That's a Diana class.

[shy fulcrum]

Whatever.

[elfin cradle]

Iver Huitfeldt-class and Absalon too large,

[sand delta]

By 7/8 metres.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/explosive-laden-drone-found-near-nord-stream-pipeline

https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/munitions-object-found-near-nord-stream-pipeline-has-been-successfully-cleared-478/

[elfin cradle]

Yeah, that was a Swedish Seafox EOD ROV that were lost earlier during an exercise clearing old bombs.

[pure finch]

I am looking at the German activity atm - the Schleswig Holstein and Oste were fairly close to the MJ while it was on station.

I hope to have a basic timelapse done shortly, but will work with @velvet rain to do something more comprehensive over the next couple of days.

[elfin cradle]

https://www.atlas-elektronik.com/fileadmin/user_upload/01_Images/Solutions/Datenblaetter_zum_Download/005_Seafox.pdf

[limber hinge]

Good question.
Maybe,
How deep can you deploy the antenna?
Don't you make a lot of sound when ascending and decending because then need to fill or purge ballast tanks?
So if they are trying to he stealthy they want to lay on or creep across the bottom, not surface for a chat.

Still trying to find a role for Andromeda.

[pure finch]

This gets to what I was wondering about earlier - I'm wondering if the Andromeda was there to mop up in case something went wrong, maybe provide limited logistical support. E.g. if a sub deployed divers, something/someone floated to the surface due to an accident.

E.g. they likely had a plan / fallback in case something went wrong.

[limber hinge]

Hum, not a bad thought.
Kind of a safety boat.
Scoop up the evidence before NATO gets to it.

[pure finch]

Now, why there'd be explosive residue on Andromeda as a result? 🤷‍♂️

[limber hinge]

I thought there was discussion about that.
They FOUND residue OR
They SUSPECTED residue OR
False positive

Even if a false positive does not mean Andromeda was not involved.

There is much suspicious about Andromeda.

[pure finch]

AH ok, I likely missed that!

Either way, it gets around smuggling explosives into Germany - it leaves port with no explosives or anything really notable on board. But the crew knows where they have to go and what they have to do when they get there.

[velvet rain]

They were witnessed loading things onto Andromeda in Wiek if I recall correctly.

[pure finch]

Ugh, QGIS just crashed at 87% of timelapse. screams into void

And I don't think I had saved my settings, oh god damn.

[sand delta]

Damnit.

https://youtu.be/gG3m4V9F0Ow

So, on the 6th of September, the Call a Pizza company was having it's annual meeting in Yachthafenresidenz Hohe Düne.

[velvet rain]

6th and 7th

[limber hinge]

That could have just been food and or clothing.
But also could have been anything else.
The average person does not travel light.

[velvet rain]

But on a different harbour in the middle of their trip?

[sand delta]

fwiw, @velvet rain found this, but I begged him to share it.

[limber hinge]

What is this?

[sand delta]

See the YT video.

It's drone footage from a German pizza companies AGM in the Yachtresidenz on 6-7th September.

[limber hinge]

I thought this was Wiek on Sept 7?

You gotta eat.
People can not plan food for a 3 week excursion.
You NEED a Starbucks?

[velvet rain]

And before anyone has any ideas: The white van in front of the Kongresszentrum in the video is not them.

[velvet rain]

They started in Rostock. Wiek was on the way.

[sand delta]

It went Rostock - Wiek - Christianso - Wiek - Rostock

Absent any unknown stops.

[pure finch]

Apologies, this kinda sucks - but it's what I was left with :
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/lapsed.mp4

Minerva Julie timelapse with GER Navy Schleswig Holstein & Oste beginning to appear in my data round the morning of 09 SEP.

I lost the actual settings, so I can't even ID which GER vessel is colour coded as which... but I will redo it.

Hope this gives an idea for now. I should add that the German Navy traces are incomplete - this is due to the way I got the AIS data in the first place, with @velvet rain 's help we should be able to improve this a lot.

[limber hinge]

??????
Rostok Sept 6
Wiek Sept 7
Christianson?
Wiek ?
Rostok Sept 23

[sand delta]

Christianso 16-18th

[sand delta]

Nice, well done 🙂

[limber hinge]

That is GREAT work.
I am sorry you had that glitch.
It inhales air loudly!

[pure finch]

I really should have included a range scale... anyway. I'll try again 🙂

But thanks this has been a team effort all along with lots of contributions.

[limber hinge]

Minerva Julia drifting
Sept 6 to Sept 13
Swedish Naval activity
Sept 6 to Sept 13
Andromeda
Rostock Sept 6
Wiek Sept 7
Christianson Sept 16-18
Wiek ??
Rostock Sept 23
German/USA naval activity
Sept 22 to Sep 24

[limber hinge]

So from this Andromeda could have been ON SCENE in really only 1 period.
On scene: Sept 9 to Sept 15

It is about 270 km from Christianso to Rostock. They can get from Weik to On Scene in about 24 hours, down wind.

On scene 9th to 15th, 6 days.

To get back they have head winds and need to tack so the distance will be substantially longer, and speed will not be great.
So I can easily see leave Christianso morning of 19th and arrive Wiek on 21 or 22.
Then another day to Rostock.

The stop in Christianso was just to recover from the previous days beatings.

They stop is Rostock to load and unload away from the charter company. That is a big marina, get lost in the crowd.

All very loose assumptions.

[pure finch]

Ok, updated it a bit - added a scale bar, slowed it down: 2 frames a sec, each frame shows 1 hour worth of vessel track.

MJ up top.
Pink = Oste
Teal = Schleswig Holstein
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/newlapsed.mp4

Again we should get something better done over the next few days, but this is kind of interesting already.

[tired monolith]

looks great

[pure finch]

Slightly different view showing close they got at one point:
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/snippet.mp4

(The data cut outs are an artifact of how the AIS positions were filtered)

[junior moat]

you can also add "Bad Bevensen" ( MMSI 211211180 ) which joined them at some point and had AIS switched on for some time .
https://corporate-trust.blog/2022/12/06/german-navys-intel-ships-were-near-nord-stream-sites-before-blasts/
and you can add "U 32" submarine, but I doubt it left any traces in AIS data 😉
( note all this activity was part of NorthernCoasts2022 exercise – more details in the press release https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/marine/aktuelles/baltic-guard-zwischenbilanz-5510642 )

[junior moat]

so is this boat the one we saw leaving on Sept 7th between 1200-1400 in webcam footage, and which we suspected to be Andromeda ?

[tired monolith]

dont think so, I think its the slot in between from the pictures I have seen

and this boat in the picture is the other one that is slightly shorter, perhaps

so that would make Andromeda missing if I am correct in this picture

should be able to figure it out if you compile all of the material, the boats probably have their regular spots

[junior moat]

definitely. maybe we can figure out based on weather and angle of the sun which date and time this is roughly . can then match it with the other webcam footage

[junior moat]

yet another journalist (BILD) went and took a video inside Andromeda, some more detailed shots, also some additional information which things the investigators apparently took with them from the yacht
(source: https://www.bild.de/video/clip/politik-ausland/bild-auf-der-jacht-andromeda-wurde-nordstream-von-hier-gesprengt-83245442.bild.html)
( additional source : https://twitter.com/BILD_Reporter/status/1636859712749617153 )
( additional detailed information how many investigators were on the yacht - 13 😉 - , and exact time : https://collection.cloudinary.com/dtbsnh5hh/72df9a3592592a3e8ac732d86a7d65b3 )

[junior moat]

I actually think this drone footage (if it is from 6th or 7th Sept) must be pretty much exactly from 7th Sept between 1200-1400, because (A) that boat is still there and (B) the flags are already raised

( check webcam for reference : https://www.bergfex.de/sommer/rostock/webcams/c17739/?date=2022-09-07 )

[junior moat]

by the way in light of new information the charter contract ended on 23rd I think makes it more likely that boat returning on the 23rd 1400-1600 may be Andromeda after all ( #1072947857654554624 message )

from the webcam footage Oliver shared you can see it's parked one or two slots further away from the camera compared to the boat leaving on 7th Sept
( https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1634212297626271745 )

[shy fulcrum]

Why subs? Wouldnt it be more likely that the Swedish Visby and Danish patrol boat Nymfen went looking for the "dark ships"? If the Baltic monitors for subs (which it does), it also monitors unusual activity on the surface. But yeah, sub activity is also possible. I just think the "dark ships" and Naval activity go well together. Timeframe is also a good match. For these vessels we have AIS-positions that could be included in Púkas animation. Great work, btw.

[limber hinge]

Marinas frequently have assigned "transient" berthing area. If you can find that it would narrow the search in the photo.
Likely close to the fuel dock.

[pure finch]

Was the yacht returned to the marina in Rostock on 23 Sep or to another location?

[junior moat]

well, if everything went according to the standard rental contract, it had to be returned to the same marina it was rented from, so yes HoheDüne in Rostock

[junior moat]

we know that Mola Yachting is using berth "G" in that marina
link to Sara's great find of a map of the marina here : #1072947857654554624 message

[pure finch]

Thanks 🙂

[sand delta]

For a country that was apparently so concerned about Google Street view being a threat to privacy that it used it’s privacy regulator to put a stop to it, it’s insane the amount of coverage there is of Germany from various webcams, public submitted pictures and whatnot.

[limber hinge]

Ah, BMT (Before My Time)
Thanks.

[limber hinge]

Two possible reasons
First - "dark ships" are not that uncommon, stuff breaks if nothing else. While it is "illegal" there is no active "on the water" enforcement. And if it is international water who has jurisdiction? The military has other stuff to do.
Second. Subs are by their nature suspicious, and now you have this anomaly of the tanker idling in an odd manner, raising the suspicion they were covering for the sub.

Personally, if I was to send a Diver, I would have used a fiberglass fishing trawler small enough to not have AIS required. Fishing boats make all kinds of weird maneuvers, hang out for days, have low fretboard, are set up for handling heavy things over the side in rough water, have living arrangements. I think the AIS is 45', but given fishermen's desire to be secretive (hiding from competitors) having AIS off would not be suspicious. A bigger difficulty may be having a fishing permit for the time and area. Don't know Baltic practices on fishing enforcement.

But that does not fit what data we have.

[pallid moat]

if that's right, the drone might have some very interesting unused footage

what makes you think it was filmed on the 7th nd not the 6th? were the flags not raised on the 6th?

[junior moat]

indeed, they were not. they were raised sometime between 1200-1400 on the 7th. the same 2-hour timeslot where Andromeda left.
so the drone footage could very well include Andromeda leaving, if that boat is indeed Andromeda AND if the drone operator was filming for a bit longer

I was also checking if this is simply footage from some other date before or after the event . but I couldn't find any mismatch between the drone footage boat locations and the webcam(s)

could be more thorough in checking, but as a first baseline-check it very much looks like the timeslot is as mentioned above

[sand delta]

I assume we should reach out to the drone operator/filmmaker.

Now, would it make sense to maybe ask Aric/Oliver/someone from Bellingcat to reach out, or should we try ourselves 🫣 (And worth mentioning, it should probably be one email, no need to harass the dude with multiple)

[junior moat]

i agree prob good idea to have s/o from Bellingcat reach out

[sand delta]

Will you ask, I’m shy 🥺

[pure finch]

AIS Timelapse of the marina on 23 Sep, might help rule in/out some vessels.
I think local time is 3hrs ahead of AIS.
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/marina23sep.mp4

[junior moat]

done - let's see if they're working on a weekend 😉 if not, good on them

[junior moat]

wait a second ... is that AIS data from the denmark open source datasets ? does that mean the Denmark receivers receive data from all the way from Warnemünde ?

[raw nexus]

Maybe delete the link so no other lurkers spam his Email?

[sand delta]

Roger that.

[vocal violet]

When it comes to reach people out, it's better if we ask to the people you mention and/or the mods over encouraging to do this ourselves (:

[sand delta]

But that’s less fun

But I agree

[pure finch]

They possibly have data sharing arrangements with German receivers? But I don't know - but you can see there's a data drop out from around 09:00z for a few hours, could just be due to summer VHF lift conditions, or something.

[vocal violet]

I know it's less fun but then people can get jumpy to act and those on the receiving side potentially bombarded

[sand delta]

SafeSeaNet https://youtu.be/6v6_SEfgJDk

By the way, it will take a while, but you can request that EMSA give you all the AIS data.

https://www.emsa.europa.eu/publications/data-request-procedure.html

What happens is that they contact each of the member states and the member states comes back with a Yes/No.

[pure finch]

gets a months worth of AIS data printed on A4 pages

[sand delta]

You can submit a polygon of the area you want tracks for.

[pure finch]

that is neat

[junior moat]

in other news.. great find by "Arno" on twitter about "Glomar Worker"
https://twitter.com/axlin0/status/1637086357859311616
can finally confirm in my list that this vessel is hired by NordStream2 AG / Gazprom

Arno🎗🥦 (@axlin0)

@Erkperk @BillyBostickson @OAlexanderDK @PeterDunn_OSINT @mortymer001 Glomar Worker is hired by @NordStream2.
See https://t.co/68PSgpyn7m

Twitter · Mar 18, 2023, 1:39 PM

https://nautiskinformation.soefartsstyrelsen.dk/#/messages/details <-- Denmark just great. All info available in English always 🙃

[sand delta]

I assume those coordinates are the route of Nordstream?

[junior moat]

NordStream 2 specifically, yes

[pure finch]

I need to try and include that on a map, don't I.

[boreal plover]

still think it's possible detectable explosive residues could have been left on Andromeda by someone contaminated by handling them elsewhere. IIRC GMS detectors can pick up ppb - very small traces (no?)

[junior moat]

uh they even show all the "notices to mariners" on a map : https://nautiskinformation.soefartsstyrelsen.dk/#/messages/map

[limber hinge]

Yeah, I have no idea.
I guess my point was, we have insufficient confidence in the report.
IOW, maybe yes, maybe no.
So Maybe Andromeda did NOT have explosives, but even if it did they may have come from elsewhere or been false positive.
We just don't know.
Is this a correct statement?

[sand delta]

Ye, that’s standard, they can even make it come up on your ECDIS automatically if they want.

[junior moat]

plus they have an archive that I can go through and probably also find out in whose name "Normand Frontier" was surveying the leaks

[boreal plover]

I think so, yes. So many loose threads!

[sand delta]

Searched the Danish NtMs.

https://nautiskinformation.soefartsstyrelsen.dk/rest/repo/file/publications/b/dd/bddf051c-da46-45d8-b17e-640a8046a6ba/1/EfS-Uge-47-2022.pdf

It's most likely that the Normand Frontier was being used on behalf of the Danish Maritime Administration to carry out a survey.

The process of getting a NtM published as a company doing something offshore requires the company name and whatnot to be published, which is why you see Nordstream AG associated with that notice. If the Danish government had chartered Solstad’s Normand Frontier to carry out a survey, they’d be allowed to carry out survey operations in the area without a need to publish a notice.

[junior moat]

good to know

[sand delta]

The exclusionary NtM already ensures that nobody will be in that area anyways, so there’s no need to publish another one saying X ship is working in the zone.

[junior moat]

makes sense

I just also found "Nefrit" just a couple notices further down which was indeed hired by Nord Stream AG (not Nord Stream 2 AG), as expected

hm just realized "Normand Frontier" wasn't only checking the leaks in the Danish EEZ but also the leaks in the Swedish EEZ, so we can prob cross-reference with the Swedish database of NtM, if they have an archive as well

[sand delta]

God I’m an idiot, I was wondering why I couldn’t find them in English, there’s a Danish flag and British flag button.

https://ufs.sjofartsverket.se/en/

[junior moat]

alright, will have another look this evening 🧐

[rocky wolf]

My thoughts also, residue on gloves which may have been in water. Someone taking them off for some food or coffee. Or just handling part of the explosive components, readjusting or toggling on the largest table available.

[limber hinge]

@pure finch
What I noticed was that the tanker k e pt going back to the blast area the German naval ships seemed to be concentrating on the deepest area.

A reason MAY BE they did not have good contact with the sub and were looking for it. They assumed it would be hiding in the deepest water and did not pickup on the clue that the tanker was hiding it or tie the sub to the pipeline.

Just a postulation.

[serene grove]

pretty much all modern subs can go down to 80m right?

I feel like 150m is the minimum folks are operating these days but I cannot remember where I heard that

[limber hinge]

A Kilo to 300M.

[junior moat]

the German navy also had their submarine U32 in the same area, so maybe it was also underneath M.Julie for some time 🫧 just a submarine meetup under the tanker

by the way, here's a satellite image with ( <5m ? ) high resolution of M.Julie in Rotterdam harbour Sept 1st
( source https://twitter.com/hmtillack/status/1637076351386632193 )
look at that resolution .. how beautiful, much more useful than Sentinel-2 .. if only we had such an image from Christiansø 🥹

German Navy submarine U32 chilling underneath Minerva Julie, watching russian subs lay ground mines ("allegedly") 😉

[pure finch]

"Captain - sonar reports Bellingcat Discord incoming 20kts off the starboard bow"

[tired monolith]

is there any reports where subs are typically spotted inside the Denmark / Swedden strait?

[junior moat]

hm not sure.. military usually not very talkative when it comes to these questions

[tired monolith]

yeah would think so, but if they want to hide a sub I guess sitting in deeper holes like the one beside the pipeline would prob be their best bet

I feel like they should have pretty decent control over a shallow encircled area like this, but I guess historically its not been the case considering the Swedish stories around Russian subs from a while back

[junior moat]

yeah I read somewhere underwater sound / sonar seems to be really unintuitive sometimes ... it depends a lot on the water column how sound propagates, and apparently in some conditions its really preferable to hide in shallow areas

but I didn't dig into the topic any further, so no real knowledge here

[elfin cradle]

They are usually announcing when a Submarine is Transiting to/from the Atlantic as the Öresund is pretty shallow and heavily trafficked.

[tired monolith]

yeah, makes sense that is a spot its not possible to avoid detection, they might have other capabilities that they arent publicly talking about inside too though - that its just that both sides knows that this particular traffic will be known to both sides so then might as well report it openly

[elfin cradle]

The thermocline in the Baltic sea is pretty shallow, between 10-30m depending on the season, going belove that you will be a lot harder to be detected.

[restive kelp]

Andromeda didn’t use AIS

[pure finch]

I am aware of that - the idea was to show vessels that were on AIS, so that they could potentially be ID'd from the footage, and positively ID'd as not the Andromeda.

[limber hinge]

In port many/most vessles will turn off AIS. It is worthless there. Except in case your boat was stolen and the theif was too stupid to turn it off.

[idle crane]

My thinking - if you're russia and the Andromeda was a plant to finger Ukraine, you can't tell anyone about it, you must appear to be ignorant and so you do your usual thing of blaming secret American submarines etc. But you are hoping that Germany etc find the big trail of evidence and internally that's what they believe (to sow discord between allies) or that's what they report.

[tired monolith]

RU could play it both ways tbh depending on what they think is the most useful to them domestically, using a trail planted to point to UA as "insurance" and still trying to pin it on NATO/US, its one of the reasons I understand some people leaning towards RU in lack of conclusive proof

its the "downside" to general west trying to stay out of it directly, more space to push as long as if you have a general gauge of what you are likely to get away with (drone is another example of this)

[idle crane]

These guys aren't doing underwater construction, they're not laying the pipe, they don't need to be doing saturation dives. They're maybe spending an hour placing a charge and then returning to surface. Resting for a day or two, returning to the next site and team two does the next dive.

[pure finch]

Huge thanks to @velvet rain for preparing the data that allowed these visualisations of the AIS data:
Green = Minerva Julie
Red = Schleswig Holstein
Purple = Oste

https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/wider.mp4
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/zoomed.mp4

[tidal knoll]

These are great!

[tired monolith]

yea awesome visualizations, I still cant make sense of the the green fitting so incredibly well with the area of main interest for that long of a period

[tidal knoll]

Excellent job collecting and visualising the data.

[pure finch]

Thanks! Team effort, @velvet rain was a huge help with preparing the AIS data and @sand delta contributed links to the 12NM/EEZ data, NS1+2 JSON and the community as a whole made suggestions on possible improvements.

Still a work in progress, but it's been fun to work on.

[velvet rain]

You did all the actual work!

[raw nexus]

What is the green ship?

[pure finch]

Green = Minerva Julie
Red = Schleswig Holstein
Purple = Oste

[raw nexus]

Looks like a search pattern

Don't think they tried to ping Nessie but it looks like the pattern u do when cartographing

[limber hinge]

Tankyou very much.
Fantastic!

[elfin cradle]

Oste = The SIGINT ship?

[pure finch]

Yes, MMSI 211211470.

[harsh rock]

Interesting... thanks for the work on the visualisation.
All three of those were on a list I made a couple of weeks back.
There were a couple of interesting things I noticed.... a bulk carrier, Oslo Bulk 12, looks like it could have potentially, albeit briefly, stopped close to the position of the Minerva Julie.
And, the Aloni sailed past Minerva J for some distance, hove to and turned off AIS. Minerva J then did a 180 degree turn and sailed towards the last position of the Aloni and also hove to a short distance away.
Not sure if either of those instances mean anything but it just seemed something to note.

[pure finch]

That's very interesting info!

Thank you for sharing.

[sand delta]

The Aloni or the Elona?

Do you mean the vessel broadcasting a MMSI of 999999999?

#1072947857654554624 message

[shy fulcrum]

Good luck down there in the rabbit hole. I'm signing off.

[harsh rock]

I didn't check the MMSI Sara but it could well be that....I haven't had time to dig into it due to work commitments.
Photos attached
Second photo shows Minerva J heading change and its the moment before the Aloni? AIS was turned off.
Third photo shows the Oslo Bulk
There are just stills from a MT animation of the timeframe of interest.

[pure finch]

I think the Aloni kept AIS on - but for some reason MT lost the AIS packets - it seems the Danish receiver(s) got it consistently.

Quick timelapse including the vessels attached - thanks again to @velvet rain

[harsh rock]

Nice one...makes more sense, thanks!

[pure finch]

I would love to know if those vessels communicated with the MJ!

[sand delta]

Jesus Christ

I assumed because it was or of the way of the TSS, it was more or less drifting away from other vessels

The Minerva Julie is drifting itself into a traffic situation where it is the give way vessel, and it doesn’t even show an intention of giving way.

Whoever is on watch on the Minerva Julie is a colossal moron.

[pure finch]

Yup it really looks like the Oslo Bulk 12 vessel was forced to move by the MJ

[sand delta]

Drifting is commonplace sure, but if licensed officers choose to do that, and carried out their watch in such a fashion, they are absolute numpties.

[pure finch]

I know the rule of thumb is to blame incompetence rather than conspiracy, but it almost kinda looks like the MJ's behaviour had the effect of headbutting other vessels away from sites that may have had stuff ongoing under the surface.

[tired monolith]

and the fact they afked there for a week when they should / could have rested on anchor instead

[pure finch]

Meanwhile, there's potentially another vessel there not on AIS, so there must have been some.... interest...

[limber hinge]

Aloni - there is an Aloni registered in GB. A 10M sailing boat. I can not tell speed on the graphic above. Should not be more than 8 to 10 knots.

Sailboats don't like to run dead down wind, it causes various problems. So they will run off 10⁰ to 20⁰. Then they will "jibe" (as opposed to "tack" to bring the wind on the other quarter in order to make a destination DDW.

Judging from the tankers drift angle that may be why youbsee the change in direction to Port. They did a jibe to gain their desired course.

[sand delta]

I don’t think there’s any chance these “dark ships” are anything other than naval vessels.

[pure finch]

Apologies, I should have included the MMSI in the labels:
ALONI: MMSI 372879000 - Cargo
OSLO BULK 12: MMSI 255806051 - Cargo

[limber hinge]

Alright then, disregard my blather above. Wrong MMSI.

[limber hinge]

I would vote "numptie".
Never discount ignorance or incompetence.
I can not recall clearly but I think I have seen a drifting cargo ship transmit NUC, Not Under Command.
Would the ships status be recorded in the AIS data stream?
I wonder what the tanker was broadcasting.

[velvet rain]

MJ is transmitting "Under way using engine" the entire time.

[pure finch]

Actually looks like its on its way home to Greece now, I wonder how often it returns to its flagged nation.

[limber hinge]

Thanks.

[sand delta]

It technically is

Underway means not made fast to the shore, anchored or aground.

Rule 3.

[limber hinge]

COLREGS has
Underway: not anchored, or made fast to the shore, or aground. (As defined in Colregs).

Making way: being propelled through the water by sail, machinery, or oar. (Not defined in Colregs)

AIS value definitions have only UNDERWAY USING MOTOR, no MAKING WAY.
There is no value for UNDERWAY or FLOATING AROUND AIMLESSLY.

[sand delta]

And it probably still is sorta kinda slow steaming.

You’ve to run your DGs to have any electrical power, so there’s little reason not to slowly putter around.

[limber hinge]

Why does Monty Python leap into my mind?

Silly Walks

[sand delta]

It can’t be NUC because that has to be an extraordinary circumstance.

If you intentionally do something (like pull a piston on an engine), you can’t claim NUC.

[limber hinge]

Half seriously, what should a sailboat display when Hove To?

Yeah, yeah, watch keeping.
In reality all are below trying to stay in their bunk and wait it out.

Should likely be NUC.

Don't even know if I can change that TBH.

[sand delta]

It could technically claim RAM, but not really, because it’s not temporarily restricted by its nature of Its work, but I suppose you could abuse the fact that RAM is an unlisted rule, it lists a couple but says it’s not limited to them.

[sand delta]

I suppose it was engaged in underwater operations for RAM

[limber hinge]

I just looked at my AIS instruction manual. My Class B has no waynto insert certain info such as UNDERWAY or DESTINATION. Apparently the Class A variety (+$$$) has more menu features and enables this additional data.

I have never seen my own AIS message, how it appears on others units

[sand delta]

Yep.

On my ship you’d show up with your name, your MMSI, your GPS position and your status, and that’s about it.

All the other stuff, ROT, Destination, it just shows up as - - -

[limber hinge]

Interesting, I had not realized that. I know for other sailboats I can see heading and SOG.

Around here there are some Super Yachts. They used to broadcast their name. Not anymore, it is just blank. Inimum info, no DEST, they now blank all they can, in general.

Cruise Ships still broadcast their name. Did not look at DEST.

I guess you heard about the big super in Bahamas that rear ended a coastal tanker and sunk it? A couple of years ago.

[sand delta]

https://gcaptain.com/inadequate-lookouts-led-to-collision-between-superyacht-and-tanker-in-the-bahamas/

Yep.

Superyacht’s skipper left the bridge and left an unlicensed bosun on the bridge standing watch.

[boreal plover]

just on the basis of a superficial glance at the AIS docs, there doesnt seem to be any sort of authentication. There are various free / open software guides and code available for hacking up DIY AIS receivers (random eg., https://www.rtl-sdr.com/rtl-sdr-tutorial-cheap-ais-ship-tracking/ ) using SDR, software defined radio. (And I imagine the more serious end of the radio amateur world would be able to use proper receivers and big antennae, etc.)

The thought occurs that it would be fairly straightforward for some in the radio/hacking community to extend such code to transmit, too. No doubt that would break all sorts of regulations and likely laws, too, but it seems like it would be technically possible. If so, and I'm right about no auth., data such as position, course, speed etc could be spoofed.

obviously the discrepancy between real and claimed position, etc, would show up comparing AIS with radar, and suchlike - but does any org actually look for such things? Would someone at the coastguard, or other ships' bridges, notice that, unless they were looking out for it? I guess if a vessel was in sight but claiming to be 50 miles away, it would be obvious,.. apologies if this is baloney, just idle insomnia-insomnia-driven musing 🙂

other possibilities - a rogue transmitter claiming to be another, real, vessel, but giving spurious info. Do the data displays show both ships, the real one and the fake? Rogues claiming to be non-existent ships? "I am a 200,000 ton supertanker sailing up the Thames in Central London" ...

[junior moat]

• turning off AIS
• masquerading as another ship via AIS
  -> both definitely does happen
• sending non-existing ship positions probably also happens, but maybe it's relatively easy to filter out these signals, based on triangulation, whatnot

there is a ton of research on these topics, someone shared a really detailed paper earlier in the chat

[junior moat]

@pure finch if you happen to have a free minute at some point, could you check for the path of NOORDHOEK PATHFINDER ( MMSI 245457000 ) inside the DK AIS data 🙏 ( in November that is) .. should be another vessel that is inspecting the pipes on behalf of NordStream AG

[pure finch]

@velvet rain is the AIS processing wizard 🙂

We'll take a look

[pure finch]

@junior moat unfortunately the only contact in the November AIS data appears to be from when it was off the Netherlands.

[limber hinge]

A little off topic but...
I gust Googled "NordStream" "last 24 hours" and the vast majority of hits I get are pro- Russian narrative pieces.

No info, just some idiot shooting their mouth off andaking headlines.

Obviously Putin thinks he isaking some progress with this line of attack.

That MAY prompt some more revelations about the incident, to counter the Russian narrative.

[junior moat]

oh wow.. I'm an idiot. Just now noticed the little badge on the Danish Notice that says "cancelled"...
my bad 😬 thank you for the research though ! good to have confirmation

[limber hinge]

It is just Google
Search NordStream
In Search Tool select "pasr 24 hours"

https://www.google.com/search?q=nordstream&client=ms-android-samsung-gn-rev1&prmd=niv&sxsrf=AJOqlzXJEwhJECltGsydAdnitVTj1zFFsg:1679235246777&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwkIPjluj9AhUzSzABHd75CRMQpwV6BAgCEBE&biw=789&bih=332&dpr=2.63

[sand delta]

Which country are you using it in?

[junior moat]

yeah the chinese state media is going on and on and on about how everyone is supposedly ignoring Hersh, poor old Hersh

[velvet rain]

Just a warning: The results will be highly region-dependent.

[sand delta]

yeah within EU most Kreml sponsored "news" services are censored

[junior moat]

I do get the occasional search result from ruptlyTV though, so that seems to still be included

[tired monolith]

I guess that angle is very effective in Asia with culture of respect for elders. Probably harder to accept people that once did or said something important falling totally off a cliff

[junior moat]

very possible, but I actually think it has even more to do with the Chinese govt agenda and them wanting to paint "the West" as hypocrites, etc

basically the Chinese communist party needs to erode trust with the West within their own population and make sure that population will follow them blindly with respect to the leadership's planned future endeavours

[tired monolith]

yeah I agree thats the motivation, was more a comment on its efficiency. While they have a point sometimes about hypocrisy they are no strangers to being hypocrites themselves, and you also never get anywhere if you can use any prior history as justifying doing horrible things in the present and future

but yes both CCP and Putin is also counting on offering more amount of conflicting information helps them growing larger divides. Since so much today counts on efficiency, automation and spread of opinions of less qualified people it creates gigantic piles of things that people consume way before it can be properly debunked (assuming someone even puts enough funding into it to complete it in the first place)

while both of them are filtering that to some degree on an internet and government level

[junior moat]

it's kinda interesting though since this survey being cancelled probably means NordStream AG had already agreed to rent this vessel but then for some reason or the other went for "Nefrit" instead ... another rabbithole to go down and get to the bottom of this 🐇

[sand delta]

Maybe someone could look behind the Paywall?: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus244344791/Nord-Stream-Anschlag-Ein-Oeltanker-eine-Firma-aus-Dubai-ein-Segelboot-und-die-deutsche-Marine.html "An oil tanker, a company from Dubai, a sailing boat and the German Navy:
Shortly before the Nord Stream attack in September 2022, the tanker "Minerva Julie" cruised near the later crime scene on its way to Russia for days. What did the BKA do when the ship moored in Hamburg for two days in February?"

[raw nexus]

Tillack doesn't know more than y'all here, he just stirs the pot

[sand delta]

I couldn't read the article. What was it with the Dubai company? And what did the BKA in Hamburg with Minerva Julie?

[limber hinge]

God question, I'm am in Dominica with a Guadeloupe phone number, so France.

[limber hinge]

I just switched ti my iPhone, which is tethered to the French phone, but has a VPN
Set VPN to YSA and got same crap.
S. HERSH, the world's most highly respected journalist yadsa, yadda,
Plus lots of UKRAINE DID IT.
MAIN point is it may shake some addition info out someone.

[velvet rain]

So we learned that Minerva Julie failed her fire safety inspection in 2008. That's… something, I guess?

[boreal plover]

thanks, I'd missed that.

[sand delta]

2008 or 2021?

[velvet rain]

Both times, actually.

But only minor issues in 2008, apparently.

[sand delta]

Yea, it got detained by the Belgians for a couple days in 2021 and ordered to go directly to a shipyard to get the stuff fixed.

These were the 2021 deficiencies that got it detained.

In 2019, it had these deficiencies in Italy, but it wasn't detained as a result.

https://www.parismou.org/inspection-search/inspection-search

I've also found that the Minerva Julie is part of a class of ships, mostly built for other companies, specifically an Italian one called Pietro Barbaro S.p.A.

It's an "Ivory Point"-class design tanker.

So it has sister ships, but they aren’t operated by Minerva.

[serene grove]

now that's a good looking boat right there

[serene grove]

wow, excellent visualization as usual...also I can write code to massage data if you need any help @velvet rain

also check this out, you can totally track AIS from space https://www.nasa.gov/Wallops/2017/feature/undergraduate-students-bring-ideas-to-reality-with-rocket-launch-aug-12-from-nasa-wallops (I did the rx+telemetry software for this while I was in undergrad, buncha gnuradio and python scripts lmao)

we used a dipole antenna made out of a tape measure, my buddy in the glasses there is checking the deployment circuit

I'm surprised there's no global 100% coverage AIS tracking at this point...the company that sponsored us said it was a pilot run for their commercial network

(also, if anyone ever wondered what the air force does with old missiles...they let students put random crap on them for suborbital flights lmao)

[junior moat]

good article in wired UK https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nord-steam-explosions-mystery-osint

[raw nexus]

Sorry, I just see that now. It's already linked.

[raw nexus]

There's basically a kind of tinder app where you can hire a crew..🤪

[junior moat]

for the Germans among us another proof "Berliner Zeitung" is the worst among the newspapers people generally think are serious news sources .. I can't even read this to the end, are we sure the paper isn't owned by the Chinese Communist Party in reality? 😄 https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/open-source/nord-stream-noch-konnte-die-theorie-von-seymour-hersh-nicht-widerlegt-werden-li.328733

[raw nexus]

Absolutely agree. Propaganda Berliner Epoch Times

[junior moat]

crazy

[raw nexus]

It's the owner

[junior moat]

oh of course he worked for the Stasi 🙄 it's always the same patterns
( just researched him on wikipedia )

[elfin cradle]

"In his article, Oliver Alexander himself states that OSINT localization can be technically circumvented in P-8 aircraft - and thus invalidates his own argument."

This is such a stupid anti-argument.
If the plane were a dark flight i.e without transponder that would be sus and countries would send up planes to intercept.
If a plane used a fake callsign it still would look suspicious if it were outside any pre-announce flight path. I.e a passenger plane flying outside a airway, i.e https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Baltic_Sea_Cessna_Citation_crash

If it were sanctioned by NATO it would required so many people from a bunch of diffrent countries having knowledge about it.

Also, this plane crash lead to a higher than usual number of millitary ships and maritime surveillance aircrafts in the early september 2022.

I had just forgot about this incident until something random reminded me.

[junior moat]

I now read two pieces in both Wired and FP each suggesting results from official investigations may never get publicized.. I'm no legal expert at all, but I somehow don't think either Germany, Denmark or Sweden can pull this off, and keep the results secret forever

[limber hinge]

I think I linked this before. Dutch Naval analyst explains why the West is ignoring Russian attacks on infrastructure.
https://youtu.be/EeP_ZZbBIl4

[sand delta]

Danish* but yea.

[tired monolith]

yeah, I think he has fair points in this video

both flat countries whos people starting with D, close enough 😉

he seems like a good guy to adopt if you want to get credit though, perhaps you can lure him to a double citizenship

[sand delta]

Just to be contrarian, my one point would be. On all the other likely/possible (but as yet unclear) examples of such phenomenon, NATO has left the incident more or less untouched, at most there’s “an investigation ongoing” but that’s about it.

If we assume Nordstream fits into that phenomenon, the supposed American/Scandinavian spook leaks and the German judicial investigation having public leads is a departure from the norm.

[tired monolith]

things might lead to to a change so more details emerge anyway though but my general feeling is that its much more details known about this than what is public. From reading about the full scale invasion in retrospect recently US claim to had signs almost a year before and even other countries leading figures said they were briefed roughly half a year before it happened

so they do manage to hold a quite tight lid on things if needed (until they decided to play it with open cards in the press, that is)

[sand delta]

https://www.wired.com/story/nord-steam-explosions-mystery-osint

[sand delta]

The details were enough for OSINT researchers to start tracking down which yacht could have been used. Alexander, as well as contributors to the open-source investigative outlet Bellingcat, started following the breadcrumbs, narrowing down potential vessels.

[junior moat]

I did watch that, his analysis is really good (also all the other content on his yt-channel) 📺

[junior moat]

kinda true. Other sabotage events also have no investigation results made public yet. German rail network fiber cables, Lithuanian gas pipeline, ... others probably.
Then again, I can see someone cutting cables without leaving basically any traces, but not detonating NordStream

[limber hinge]

I suspect Putin is frustrated by the West ignoring his provocation
Thus he is now trying to bring NordSteam back into public awareness. This MAY lead to kicking some more info loose

[next lagoon]

I really dislike the framing here that western politicians are trying to "ignore them". Although this gets into a deeper discussion about the term itself. Depends on the country but at least in the US it is absolutely not being ignored, just no one is focusing on that specific term because it's not one really used here by professionals

Even narrowing to politicians specifically, US has like one hearing a month that relates to CA/CI tools being used by Russia globally and how to counter them

[elfin cradle]

The Scandinavian spook leak is nothing that I´ve seen in Swedish or Norwegian news, would go rounds in news it it were a thing.
I get the impression that its only something German news has invented to make the story sound more sexy, believable and interesting. (however it could be Danish news, as their intelligence is leaky as fuck, but I tend to pretend that Denmark dont exist /sarcasm)

[sand delta]

Hmm, true.

[elfin cradle]

I just think that the Andromeda story is either that someone tip off German police and German news to make a red herring that will take resources from the real NS investigation, or its German news that made "a hen of a feather". That someone from the German investegators/prosecutor tiped of news and the German news basically made up a fictional story that could fit that a group rented the boat weeks before the pipelines blew up.
Or its a mix of both theories, that someone in German investigators wanted to earn a bit extra money and made up a story and sold it to the news.
Just look how the news turned "looking after possible explosives" to "traces of explosives were found".

[sand delta]

The judge who responded to Holger Schmidt's email is a German judge on secondment to the Federal Public Prosecutor's office to work on war crimes and crimes against humanity.

[junior moat]

Just look how the news turned "looking after possible explosives" to "traces of explosives were found".

you got that the wrong way round though. First the journalists reported (from their investigator-source) that apparently "traces of explosives were found" and then they asked for confirmation from the General Prosecutor's office, and got some confirmation "the yacht was searched in January in connection with NordStream blasts" etc

[elfin cradle]

Ty for the correction!

[junior moat]

yeah either way, I hope we'll soon get a bit more non-leaked direct official info from govt institutions in either of the countries doing the investigations

[junior moat]

yeah ignoring is not the right term. I think "not discussing publicly" is what is meant here, because making public their insights into the perpetrators would also mean they'd have to react in one way or the other. and thus apparently (quasi)NATO countries have no interest in making their investigation results public atm

[elfin cradle]

Yeah, investigation confidentiality sucks and leads that conspiracy theorists can spread stupid stuff freely. Smart people can understand why they cant say anything, less smart people take the silence that conspiracy theorists must be right because they are not denied...

And technically, politicians should never ever be near an investigation, because they have always an interest. If they are, then assume that the investigation is fishey.

I will try if I can get Pucas script working on my computer and I will start to look for sus ships outside September.

[rocky wolf]

I have a friend who is a NATO mil. and commercial diver/teacher in Norway. What are the key Q's we should as him?

[raw nexus]

If he want to join the gang for a q and a?

[nimble gull]

We have to assume the leaks are controlled and intentional. Especially when they drop like this, from multiple agencies/countries. What the goal/veracity of that is, who knows - speculation isn’t very productive or at least not relevant to this channel I think. But I find it really hard to pin that on Russia, we have no leads at all in that direction.

Danish intelligence is probably keeping pretty quiet considering the past couple of years heh

[rocky wolf]

Maybe, I can check with him! He is kind of shy but I'll try 🙂

[junior moat]

probably mostly whether he thinks the 'Andromeda did it alone' plot is plausible for him

[rocky wolf]

I think I'll ask him about what it takes to perform such an operation, he's done a lot of work around oil rigs. Do we know the composition of the pipe? Outer material etc ?

[raw nexus]

On the homepage there's description. We can do a list you could give him if he's not comfortable being in a chat. That's totally ok.

We can also use the video chat so no one is able to lurk without getting noticed, as a safety space

[serene grove]

considering how sloppy a lot of russian intelligence operations have been lately (especially the assassinations), the fact that they didn't leave a bunch of tracks makes me think that it probably wasn't them lol

[limber hinge]

Yes, however include the SEA STATE at that time. The other thing is the number and frequency of dives and number if divers.
Most people just answered about the dive in isolation, not in the situational context of doing X number of dives over Y days in a (conservatively) 1 to 2 meter sea state.

[stark palm]

Fishing boat on a little NS sight seeing tour

[sand delta]

Searching Getty, I found this: https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/video/harnesses-lie-on-a-bed-inside-the-andromeda-a-50-foot-news-footage/1474296064

What were they using harnesses for 😳

[serene grove]

I mean I would use them for cargo loading or something idk

that's standard gear right?

[sand delta]

Yea, because they are working at height, they probably had to wear harnesses.

https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/search/2/film?events=775955286&family=editorial

[pure finch]

I don't suppose we have any idea of the coverage area of coastal radar in Sweden & Denmark?

[serene grove]

oh, right, sailboat, gotta climb up there sometimes

[velvet rain]

That dude has a lot of Andromeda stuff there

[sand delta]

This is probably where the chart plotter that has been removed was.

Or well, we don't know what was removed, but that's where chart plotters are on other peoples Bavaria Cruiser 50's, so it makes sense that if it's gone, then the chart plotter is what the investigators took.

[velvet rain]

One of the articles definitely mentioned that the investigators removed navigation equipment.

[sand delta]

Yep, just "navigation equipment" is what I meant.

[serene grove]

they left the radios though which I thought was weird

[velvet rain]

What would you get from the radio?

[serene grove]

I would certainly want to see their tuning history

assuming they keep it

although they'd probably just bring their own radios for any covert comms

but it would be amusing if they were listening to some polish numbers station or something :p

[sand delta]

Hmm

[velvet rain]

The harness might also be a "Spanngurt" (or multiple)

[sand delta]

https://www.navalhistory.dk/Danish/Vaaben/Udvikling/Kystradarprojekt.htm

[velvet rain]

A ratchet strap, but the ratchet part is hidden

A lot of German people are obsessed with having trailers for theirs cars to move stuff, so those things are omnipresent.

[sand delta]

I'll see if I can find an equivalent Swedish map

and then using some "software" I have, I'll show you an illustration.

[pure finch]

Looks like Sweden used/use LCR-2020 coastal surveillance radars

https://www.radartutorial.eu/19.kartei/07.naval2/pubs/lcr-2020-coastal-surveillance-radar.pdf

5.25 … 5.925 GHz hmm, guess that might explain some of the radar emissions visible on Sentinel 1

[serene grove]

that was a weird looking graph so I checked the context and it didn't even help much

[stark palm]

I already have this, but can't quite share it yet

[serene grove]

I guess it can also operate looking inland in other modes?

ooooooh for inland waterways maybe?

[pure finch]

It can also detect air targets at low elevations.

[serene grove]

ooooh ok so those sectors will be calibrated differently to remove ground clutter or whatever

gonna be cool to see where those can reach :p

but I doubt they'll ever release what they picked up

[pure finch]

Even then, if we knew where they were located and their elevation - we could work out whether they would have had a line of sight to the area where the blasts happened.

If the radars were too far away, they couldn't see a small vessel due to earths curvature.

If they are close enough, then, they'll have radar confirmation of a vessel/vessels in the area.

Also, if it's out of range of Danish & Swedish coastal radar, well, another reason the site may have been selected.

[stark palm]

They don't. More on this hopefully coming later today. I have a big piece coming and then later this week a bigger piece in cooperation with a media outlet

[pure finch]

Sentinel 1 showing 5GHz emitters

[stark palm]

I will either have it up tonight or tomorrow depending on how long it takes to type up and finish

[inner sandal]

I'm wondering if the Andromeda crew were in contact with a controller while laying the explosives (assuming that's what they did). Anyone know how they could comunicate securely while at sea? Would the communications be likely to be short-range?

[serene grove]

most people would probably use a satphone but there are plenty of ways

[pure finch]

Easiest thing in the world would be satellite phone(s).

If the operation itself was planned down to timing and location, and they did it themselves, then there would be limited need for external comms.

I'm leaning towards another explanation for why Andromeda was there, but I haven't got a clue.

[sand delta]

Whilst the two 2001's probably couldn't have seen the site, the 4000 definitely has enough range, if operated properly.

[pure finch]

OK this is awesome work! Thank you for sharing!

[sand delta]

For a more scientific method, if you want to calculate the absolute radar horizon

2.21√(height of the radar in metres) + 2.21√(height of your target in metres)

And you get your answer in nautical miles.

[elfin cradle]

Main marine surveillance radar
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS-640

[pure finch]

Now... I wonder what impact at that range, the Minerva Julie would have while goofing around, presumably that could attenuate the radar coverage of a stationary yacht. At the very least if the MJ is between the radar and the Andromeda. Is the Andromeda fiberglass?

[sand delta]

The Andromeda could not have been detected

At all if it didn't have its radar reflector up, but even if it did, they aren't great.

[inner sandal]

So, basically, their controller could have been anywhere. I was just wondering speculativley if they were in contact with someone on Chrstianso

[sand delta]

Object height is Elevation in m, your height is Height of Eye of Observer in metres.

[sand delta]

It would be a pretty damn hard place to keep a low profile.

[pure finch]

Just a very rough eyeball based on @sand delta's great work with the (theoretical?) Danish coastal radar coverage:

[sand delta]

and tbh, the Northern sites are relatively closer to Sweden's South-East coast.

If a large vessel was involved, (and assuming this is all recorded, which it should be), they should have radar tracks.

[elfin cradle]

Atleast 5 Swedish marine surveillance radars are within 100km from the NS cluster.

Also DK SIGINT site: 55.124920°, 14.993470°
Supercomputer processing bunker (built next to the former SIGINT station) 55.002138°, 15.073757°

[pure finch]

This looks like it may be the radar ID'd by @sand delta at Rytterknægten
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.1121885,14.8864743,116m/data=!3m1!1e3

(there's also a golf ball a short distance NE)

[elfin cradle]

This map shows the location of the radars on Bornholm
https://www.droneluftrum.dk/app/map

Its not as bad as the Norwegian drone map that revield a bunch of top secret facilities.

[stark palm]

I am also 85% sure I have found and IDed the two "Dark Ships"

[pure finch]

I look forward to reading your article 🙂

[elfin cradle]

Whats the length of them? 😉

[stark palm]

100m and 130m

[pure finch]

Has any photo emerged of the pole/antenna that Gazprom are supposed to have discovered?

Commercial/COTS underwater comms system for reference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Jb9Ltr8rXA

[sand delta]

Apparently it was found inside the pipeline.

[pure finch]

Oh 🤔

[sand delta]

https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000009454740.html

Tanskan viranomaiset ovat nyt saaneet kaasuputket omistavalta venäläiseltä Gazprom-yhtiöltä tiedon, että räjäytetystä Nord Stream 2 -kaasuputkesta on löydetty pieni esine.

The Danish authorities have now received information from Gazprom, the Russian company that owns the pipelines, that a small object has been found in the blown-up Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

[elfin cradle]

Sounds weird, surly it isnt lost in translation? Find an antenna inside the pipe at a place that was not exploded makes no sense?

[sand delta]

The article also mentions the antenna-like thing that was a distance away.

[pure finch]

Denmark's announcement came after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Gazprom has found an antenna-like object about three kilometers from the Nord Stream pipeline explosion site. According to Putin, experts believe it could be an antenna that receives a signal to trigger an explosive device.

[sand delta]

If Gazprom found it, I have no confidence they didn't also plant it.

It's just far too sus, with all the ROVs, etc that have been at the site, that it just so happens that the Russians are the first to find something.

[pure finch]

What are the legalities around Gazprom surveying 3km from the pipeline in another nations EEZ?

Yep it's all very sus.

This whole case is just... bewildering.

I kind of want to walk away from it, but I keep coming back.

[sand delta]

There's a Danish NtM making it an exclusion zone, but Nordstream AG had another Danish NtM issued giving their ship the ability to enter it to survey.

But an EEZ isn't sovereign waters, if Nordstream AG said "up yours" and went anyways, the Danes could probably attempt to kick them out on safety grounds if the leak was still ongoing, but it doesn't really have a right to do so just because it wanted to.

[pure finch]

Thank you 🙂

[elfin cradle]

I wished that someone with a sidescan sonar could just go to the NS sites and give us a clear picture. (picture unrelated to this case).

[sand delta]

Innocent passage (of military vessels) only prohibits warlike actions and surveys within another nations territorial waters.

And the NS ship is neither a military vessel nor within Denmark's 12nm.

Despite Putin's protestations, there's nothing stopping Russia from going there and investigating the site itself.

[elfin cradle]

On 1 November 2022, Danish Geodata Agency granted Nord Stream AG a permit for surveying the pipeline rupture location in the Danish exclusive economic zone*. However, until recently access to the relevant damage sites for a hydrographic survey was not possible due to the exclusion zone established by the Danish Maritime Authority**.*
https://www.nord-stream.com/de/presse-info/pressemitteilungen/incident-on-the-nord-stream-pipeline-updated-14112022-529/

So it seems that DK made some kind of exclusion zone but not the Swedes (at least what I can find).

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/axlin0/status/1637086357859311616

[sand delta]

https://ufs.sjofartsverket.se/en/Current/NoticeDetails?notice=17177&from=search

https://ufs.sjofartsverket.se/en/Current/NoticeDetails?notice=17355&from=search

https://ufs.sjofartsverket.se/pdf/2022/932EN.pdf

https://ufs.sjofartsverket.se/pdf/2022/931EN.pdf

This is the Swedish exclusion zone, issued on 5th October, withdrawn on the 6th.

2022-09-26 21:58:31 (LV) AREA: J
ZCZC JA75
261841 UTC SEP

SWEDISH NAV WARN 144/22

SOUTHERN BALTIC.NE OF BORNHOLM
DAMAGE TO THE NORD STREAM
GAS PIPELINE IN PSNS
55-33.4N 015-47.3E AND 55-32,1N 015-41,9E
LEAKAGE DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION.
NAVIGATION PROHIBITED WITHIN AREA OF 5 NM OF POSITIONS. AND 1000 M ELEVATION.
NNNN

[elfin cradle]

Nice find!

[sand delta]

https://shipping.nato.int/nsc/operations/news/-2022/nord-stram-12-incidents-in-the-baltic-sea

[pure finch]

Huh, I didn't realise there were still Danger Area's showing up on MT over the leak sites.

[sand delta]

Virtual AIS AtoNs, yea.

[velvet rain]

How do those work, by the way? Are they just transmitted from a coast station in range?

[sand delta]

Yea, they are transmitted by a coast station.

[stark palm]

This thing is taking longer to write than I thought, because there are so many MT screenshots

[pure finch]

If we can help with any visualisations, let us know.

[stark palm]

It is just a lot of stuff to try to get to "make sense"

[pure finch]

Yup we can relate to that 🙂

[stark palm]

I have spent about 4 days getting all the information together. Now I just have to get it down on paper in some kind of order

https://tenor.com/view/charlie-day-gif-18564553

[limber hinge]

Common practice to stay on the boat. We wear autoinflate PFD's with integral harnesses. Without a harnesses it is difficult to get the Man Overboard, back on-board, the PFD frequently slips over the arms and head. To be effective the harnesses also needs a strong crotch strap.

[sand delta]

tbh, I was more making a joke about them being used as a s*x swing.

[limber hinge]

Sat phone (e.g. iridium) or maybe starling and use thr net.

[pure finch]

I was wrong, this appears to be an air search radar:
https://koldkrig-online.dk/wp-content/gallery/radarstation-bornholm/3.JPG

The marine radar/Skanter 4000 is below:
https://koldkrig-online.dk/wp-content/gallery/radarstation-bornholm/5.jpg
Location:
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.1134686,14.8903356,125m/data=!3m1!1e3

[limber hinge]

I use my radar to detect sailboats, for example coming into an Anchorage at night. Range inside 1/2 mile. The hull and much structure is fiberglass or wood. But other things are metal such as the cooker (stove), propane bottles, engine. All those things will have a bigger radar signature than that reflector.

You can sometimes see quite a bit of stuff, but only very short range. Big shoreside installations should do better, but they have limitations. After a few miles, at nest, a sailboat is likely invisible.

[sand delta]

To see your prey, you must first become your prey.

At that range, the radars I'm familiar with will start dropping you, just too close to be picked up.

[limber hinge]

I came across this article on insurance complications. The article anticipates no perpetrator will be named. Billions of $ at stake.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/20/insurance-agencies-nord-stream-explosions/

[sand delta]

A lot of them are starting to write off their stake as a loss. The Dutch GasUnie did a week or so ago.

[limber hinge]

True enough. An elaboration I have heard is "To know your prey you must become empathetic with them, then you can anticipate their moves."

[harsh rock]

10000 posts!!!

[sand delta]

10.000 messages on Nordstream? Elementary, my dear Watson. 🕵️