Nord Stream Pipeline

[velvet rain]

Just bringing the start of this thing back into context in case Aric reads this

[sand delta]

Alternatively @stark palm

[velvet rain]

Still just guessing about sailing, but they might even have anchored in view of the webcam.

[sand delta]

Hopefully flying a big Ukrainian flag.

🇺🇦

[subtle finch]

I was bored a few days ago and looked at everything between 06.09 and 15.09 and saw nothing, at least nothing in plain sight 😂

[sand delta]

Alternatively @junior moat as well.

[velvet rain]

I think he's Dunn for today.

[sand delta]

So there’s nothing to OSINT 80m below the water

But there is stuff to OSINT on the coastline

[velvet rain]

COASTINT

[sand delta]

You can show tracked ship positions

Oh, is it integrated with AIS?

click on "Schiffe" on the bottom

[subtle finch]

yes

[velvet rain]

I've look at this thing for hours

HOW DID I MISS THIS

[sand delta]

That will cut out a lot of misidentifications.

[sand delta]

Calm down Stevie Wonder.

[sand delta]

R.I.P.^^

[velvet rain]

Sorry

[velvet rain]

For reference, that ship is 11m long.

[sand delta]

Grr!

It’s not a ship.

It’s a boat.

In order to be a ship, you have to be able to carry a boat.

[velvet rain]

More sorry

[velvet rain]

So the C 57 qualifies?

[sand delta]

Don’t use my logic against me.

[velvet rain]

We really need an UNO reverse card emoji here.

[vague meteor]

Morning, guys I swear I am new to this and I have no clue but why would a sailboat go that fast direct line towards Wiek on Sept. 20th at 11:30 with no sails up. Besides it has some similarities - doesn’t it? 🤓

[sand delta]

and no AIS

[vague meteor]

please double check 😏

[velvet rain]

Direction seems right

That's 10 minutes earlier

[sand delta]

Most sail boats have engines.

Is the short answer.

[velvet rain]

I thought the question was about behaviour.

[sand delta]

Oh, sorry

[sand delta]

It certainly looks like our Andromeda

[vague meteor]

Yes, but all the other sailboats have their sails up around here and are cruising or sth

[sand delta]

The Andromeda has a dark sail right

[subtle finch]

The dark thing could be only the cover.

[sand delta]

why dark?

[velvet rain]

https://media.delius-klasing.de/dk-wassersport/images/f_auto,c_fill,g_face:auto,h_712,w_1068/q_auto:eco/yacht/absegeln-mola-charter-flensburg-2015-bsc-151-img-0905_02fd4a07c4ebcea5e46f994a74cde539/die-andromeda-eine-bavaria-50-mit-der-laut-spiegel-das-material-zum-tatort-transportiert-wurde
Seems white here

It's the from the follow-up article of that yacht magazine

[sand delta]

I think that’s a 2015 article tho

[subtle finch]

Theres always a cover to put over the sail to keep it in place and secure it when down.

[sand delta]

Where is the Latte German society pictures again

From the students using it in 2021

[deft crescent]

2021 looks dark

[sand delta]

Yes, knew it.

[vague meteor]

That one?

[sand delta]

Yep!

[tired monolith]

if they have used the sails cover also might not be on, though

[sand delta]

Could we do a rough size check

[velvet rain]

Oh damn, that's really good.

Even I can see the blue sail on the webcam picture now

[deft crescent]

Working on a comparison now

[sand delta]

tbf, not as good as @vague meteor for finding the picture lol.

[velvet rain]

Oh yes!

[sand delta]

There’s a distinct possibility this is the boat, not guaranteed but I wouldn’t be surprised.

[tired monolith]

yeah pretty promising

[sand delta]

btw check bottom right there is wind and temperature at the webcam. No wind, so not unusual to not use the sail, though

It’s also coastal navigation, you can trust engines more in close proximity to the coast, and you don’t really want to come into harbour under sail, it’s far too dangerous.

[vague meteor]

Ok, guys - I have to go to sleep and will see, if we really found it in a few hours. Don’t forget to rest as well everybody! 🙌🏼

[sand delta]

Comes into chat

Drops bomb

Goes to bed

Axel Sleep well shipmate

[vague meteor]

Sorryyyyy 🤪

[tired monolith]

so you are saying he was the one who blew the pipes?

[sand delta]

I’ve a silly joke but it’s far too adult for this server

[vague meteor]

That’s why I love OSINT - you guys have fun doing your stuff 😉

[velvet rain]

Used my horrible photo editing skills to overlay both pictures for a size comparison

[sand delta]

[tired monolith]

scope also expanded a bit today I guess, since they confirmed it was rented for the entire month - so observations for that full period could be relevant

[velvet rain]

They are pretty well aligned though!

[deft crescent]

Using the mast height as scale

[limber hinge]

⁰that cover is a sacrificial cloth to keep sun off the sail when furled, rolled up.
Without a sun cover the sails determinate much faster.
You also see covers on the mains sail, unless it is stored in the mast.
The color is just esthetics, could be any color or white.

[velvet rain]

Sulis dimensions for reference

[sand delta]

The one thing that makes me unconfident is the windows being weird

[limber hinge]

That is just the cover, the sail will be white.
Besides, if you could see the sail you would see the folds.

[sand delta]

I suppose I should have called it a dark cover.

[limber hinge]

If you look closely you can see
A: the white sails sticking out between the cover and the mast and
B: the thin lines from I mbthe cover up to the mast which hold the cover up.
For some stupid reason some folks either do not have or do not use a cover around the sail at the mast, then the front edge of the sail rots out.any things make little sense.

[sand delta]

Assuming it is the Andromeda, I presume people don’t care that much about a charter yacht.

[limber hinge]

Cabin profile is wrong, the C50 has a longer cabin.
Wrong configuration of port lights also.
Etc.

[velvet rain]

https://panodata7.panomax.com/cams/3922/2022/09/20/11-30-00_full_20_2.jpg
Highest-resolution photo we can get from the camera

[deft crescent]

Yeah sorry, I was referring to the cover being dark as the sail is down in the webcam photo, should have made that clearer

[limber hinge]

AWB
Another
White
Boat

[deft crescent]

I agree - the cabin is too short and Cruiser 50s have a different arrangement of windows on the side of the cabin

[sand delta]

Why couldn’t our Andromeda be bright pink

First they cheap out and don’t get the Mola yacht with a boat inside it.

And then they chose the white one,

[limber hinge]

That's why ours is BRIGHT yellow, so we can find it!

[velvet rain]

Just one general thing about this camera: The hull shape might be somewhat distorted by JPEG compression.

[sand delta]

Like a special mark buoy, cos you’re special

BTW GPT-4 is out, idk if it can help us. It accepts visual inputs though. 23,80 $/month :/

[limber hinge]

More than you know, I set the anchor light to flash.
It is a sick feeling to get to the back of the Anchorage and not find your boat.
Did I miss it or is it gone???

[sand delta]

Luckily I’ve never had that issue

[deft crescent]

The second boat thing actually brings up a slight point I wanted to make earlier but forgot about - they could have strapped a boat on top of the cabin and used it like in this photo. (Side note this is in Wiek during the time frame of September 2022, and I'm pretty sure it's a Cruiser 50, but it isn't the Andromeda. https://goo.gl/maps/8J8wbMnYBUEHqn6M9)

[sand delta]

Like a little yacht dinghy

[velvet rain]

So the Andromeda is a ship now? 🤔

[sand delta]

Okay Elon.

If you hurt me, I hurt you.

[deft crescent]

Yeah like the rigid inflatable dinghy shown in the photo

[sand delta]

I mean, they could, it weighs next to nothing and the ship is designed so you can walk there.

You’d want to be careful not to scratch the boat, but it’s possible.

but why? you don't need the extra boat?!

[deft crescent]

Alternatively, fill it with helium and you can bring an extra 10 kilos of SEMTEX

[sand delta]

People have being suggesting that you’d use a second boat to stay over the dive area with a little outboard.

[velvet rain]

Is that technically a balloon?

[sand delta]

Makes it easier to dive from.

[limber hinge]

Seriously, you are pushing up a rope here.
There is little sufficientlybspecial about that boat to make ot stand out at the resolutions you are working with.
Best is to look at port light and window configuration.
Also the C50 has a very uniform cabin to, one visual line.
And you have the windows in the top sides (hull).
The C50 is a mast head sloop, which means the foresail goes all the way to the top of the mast. Some boats are fractional sloops, the fore sail will be attached a bit below the mast head. Like 7/8th.
Some boats are silent or cutter rigged and will have 2 head sails, often only one flying.

These a few things you can look for.

[sand delta]

Hmm

[sand delta]

Cruiser 50 =/= C50. C50 is a newer different model~~ (less/no) wooden.~~

[limber hinge]

Dingy is very common so you can achor out and get to shore.
It would have been very helpful for the dive operation.
Another reason why I don't think they used Andromeda for diving.

[limber hinge]

Thanks for clarification

[rustic bay]

@sand delta can you link to the post you wanted me to pin? I didn't see anything that stood out

[sand delta]

The illustration

One sec

#1072947857654554624 message

[rustic bay]

What is it an illustration of? I don't think I can title the pin but I will try

[sand delta]

We can get Puca to edit it in the morning I suppose

It’s just a picture of the attack sites in relation to territorial and EEZ

[sand delta]

Danke schone 🙂

[rustic bay]

Got it, this isn't specific to anyone but putting the message about what a picture is with a picture would be best - chat moves so fast that sometimes it's several messages away, and it might be obvious to the people chatting at the time that they go together, but I often have trouble understanding what's happening later

I just see a picture and don't know if any of the following messages are connected

I know we have a lot of new to discord folks here - message me for help any time and I'll teach you 🙂

[sand delta]

Btw, what happened to that post? Can't find anything to "Oste" or "Schleswig-Holstein" by @stark palm anymore. https://twitter.com/search?q=(Oste OR Schleswig-Holstein) from%3AOAlexanderDK&src=typed_query&f=top

[sand delta]

I've created a google drive folder for the Andromeda candidates seen in the kap-arkona.panomax.com/peilturm, if you like add screenshots with file names "yyyy-mm-dd_hh_mm" and screenshot with date in the bottom and angle in the top as I did 🙂 -> https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1MFrsOQLtseasl8nIopN87EDfUJ-5X1nG?usp=sharing

[serene grove]

"The more I tink about the yacht as a dive platform the less I like it" this has been my takeaway so far tbh, I'm firmly in the "need a bigger boat" camp

[sand delta]

20 mins ago there was a tv episode in the german news about the Andromeda

They were even on bord

It was at RTL Deutschland

Around 7.04am

I missed it I only saw the last part sadly

[raw nexus]

It was streamed here

[sand delta]

Oh okay. Sorry then😂

Didnt notice that.

[raw nexus]

Sorry, not that from this morning. I need a coffee

https://www.rtl.de/videos/rtl-reporter-auf-yacht-hier-wurde-der-sprengstoff-gelagert-6410badbbe46b6af5604b772.html

[junior moat]

you can read about it here... https://corporate-trust.blog/2022/12/06/german-navys-intel-ships-were-near-nord-stream-sites-before-blasts/

it's also part of Oliver's substack article here: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-minerva-julie-unknowing-submarine

I rewatched the German TV ZDF report about Andromeda.
What they say is "according to our own research the charter rental contract only ran until Sept 23rd"

this timeline doesn't really add up in my mind (or at least it's really tight)

[junior moat]

I have 33 followers on Twitter, half of which are in this chat, the other half are conspiracy people that I muted 😂

[whole thunder]

Did someone catch in the zdf film, that they loaded materials on the boat in wiek, not in Rostock.

Witnesses should have seen them loading the boat.

[junior moat]

yes I remember reading somewhere that some witness saw them 'carrying grocery bags' onto the boat in Wiek

I think it was maybe the same 'witness' that said they were speaking "Czech or Polish"

[serene grove]

so I just tried to get chatgpt4 to build 80m dive profiles for me and...it's not very good at it lmao

https://pastebin.com/uDCU0dd0

[pure finch]

My bad, I was in a rush last night!

I have now edited the text in my post to provide more context to the image.

[junior moat]

hm for the image it could be interesting to add the parallel pipelines in the detail view so it becomes clear which string was targeted at each location. people new to this chat often don't realize the north and south explosions targeted the same string of NS2

may be too much detail though, not sure

[pure finch]

I am currently standing on a packed train going in to work -I'd much rather be making improvements like that to the map 😬

I should definitely have labelled the pipes at least.

If anyone wants to d/l the map and add labels and pin the updated version instead, please do so!

[junior moat]

no worries 😉 it's already a huge improvement to everything we had before !
I should also be working now so it'll have to wait until the evening

in other news I'm still intrigued by this piece of info from last year Oct.. https://interestingengineering.com/culture/sound-readings-from-nord-stream-explosion would really love to know which institution would even have these sound recordings available that the US may help analyze... wonder what kind of sound profile the Poroshenko-Andromeda gang left behind 😉

[shy fulcrum]

This weather report may have been posted before, but interesting in light of the Corporate Trust article by Sebastian Okada. It shows very high winds from 13-17 sept. What would you sailors want do on a 50ft sailboat in 40m/s conditions?

[stark palm]

I am having a hard time seeing a timeperiod in the Andromeda timeline where to could do this

[shy fulcrum]

I agree. If that weather is anyway near true - the sailors would see the storm coming, and get the hell out of those waters - at least a couple of days ahead. Possibly on Christiansø. Then would have waited it out - so a couple of days in the bay after the 17. That yacht was not kitted out for stormy weather.

[junior moat]

re-sharing this image from German TV showing wave height during the time period in question with sections marked orange where their "diver expert" assessed diving from a sailing boat would be possible

[junior moat]

same

[stark palm]

And it was back on the 23rd reportedly now right?

So there is literally no time period where it was possible

[pure finch]

Do we think it had made it on site by 9/10 Sep?

[stark palm]

That means it did it with the Minerva Julie on top of it and about 5-7 German and US naval vessels a few miles away

[elfin cradle]

Swedish navy were in harbor for around 12h at the 22 or 23rd

[junior moat]

yeah is what that same TV report said they found out, charter contract ended 23rd according to them

but who knows how well they researched this

[junior moat]

I'm no sailor but had a very very rough calculation and I think it'd be difficult .. but maybe someone can calculate this again

can you sail through the entire night ? maybe then it's possible

[whole thunder]

Sure. You even have to do it for the highest non-professionell license I germany

[junior moat]

okay so let's say they did shifts and sailed for 24h each day with like 5-7kn .. depending on wind not in a straight line (unless using fuel?)

[pure finch]

There is a possibility Ukrainian operatives carried this out with a degree of foreknowledge by Western/NATO IC. That they were, if not exactly allowed, they at least weren't stopped.

But obviously the more people and organisations involved, the more likely this would get drumroll leaked.

[elfin cradle]

https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/mj.mp4

I wonder if the 7th (timestamp 0:13-0:14) (western site) and the 9th (timestamp 0:31-0:32) (eastern site) may be positioning of equipment/explosives from Minerva Julie?
No clear signs at the middle site tho.

[junior moat]

I think if M.Julie was involved then only as a cover for whatever happened underneath.. Having divers on a ship with so many sailors would immediately make whatever happened more or less open knowledge

[junior moat]

I don't know sounds very wrong to me for NATO etc to "allow" this to happen

[pure finch]

Yup it would be very very messy if it came out.

[elfin cradle]

Maybe they had a skeleton crew on M.Julie? It was empty and going to St. Petersburg to load a new load of oil, right?
And it went to Talin before to "change" crew before going to St. Petersburg? What if the crew before the change were on the operation and then change to regular unknowing crew?

[pure finch]

Actually that is something I don't understand - I would have thought the MJ took oil from Russia and brought it west - so why wait in the middle of the Baltic if it was empty? E.g. it's not likely to go back to Rotterdam to load oil.

[junior moat]

not only because of like setting precedent of critical infrastructure getting attacked in EU EEZs, but also the environmental impact.. Polish researchers suggesting large amounts of porpoise and other endangered marine mammals died as a result plus some toxins were distributed wide and far from the chemical weapons dump site

[junior moat]

hm could be possible to find out more here, I'll put it on todo for the evening

how many ppl you need minimum to sail such a ship basically

if it's more than say 10 it becomes very unrealistic they all stay silent about the operation

[serene grove]

honestly I would dispute that graph, the theory only works if these are some of the most trained and experienced divers on earth

if they can do it at 0m waves they can do it at 3m waves

the surface conditions aren't relevant as long as the boat can stay in the right spot

[elfin cradle]

Its more or less of a open secret that most of the Swedish submarine incursions during the cold war were NATO submarines. Like the Hårsfjärden incident 1982 where depth charges damaged a submarine, and it sent out green-colored chemical dye for emergency signalling (something that only western NATO sub used).

So it isnt an impossible that NATO / Swe / DK known about the operation but did not stop it. But I would rather say that they could see the sail boat / MJ and just was unaware of what it was doing. Sometihing akin: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".

Or it may have been a fully sanctioned NATO / western operation and the Navy ships in the area were there to make sure that the operation went on. lol. Bet that is the next russian/pro-russian twitter claim, lol

[serene grove]

that's a good rule of thumb but I'm pretty sure malice is a foregone conclusion at this point considering the whole explosions thing

but as far as live observation goes...there are a lot of boats on the oceans

[carmine summit]

This C57 has AIS onboard I believe it seems to be the MOLIX... The Andromeda makes sense I think.

[elfin cradle]

Maybe if we can find the Minimum Safe Manning certificate?
Or figure out how much crew were change in Tallin.

[serene grove]

you'd have to do something really really weird to attract any attention

[elfin cradle]

Yes, otherwise its just a random sailboat at the sea that could be fishing. Not that a millitary ship would think that they are diving and planting explosives.

[serene grove]

and/or! I am currently a proponent of the planting-explosives-without-diving theory (I made it myself)

[elfin cradle]

During the Swedish sub incursion in 2014:
"There were also suggestions that the Russian oil tanker NS Concord was involved as a mother-ship for smaller underwater vehicles as it maintained a pattern of criss-crossing outside Stockholm during the investigation."

However I got a list of a number of Russian sus ships, will try later today and see if any of them has been near the pipelines

[junior moat]

if you go back to the year 2021 a ton of russian sus ships were near the pipelines

construction was done by the russians and was only finished around Sept 2021

they had lots of ships accompany the pipelaying vessels

[pure finch]

Hm, could the Andromeda crew have simply directed a sub to the precise location - e.g. sub could have stayed passive without using its own active sonar.

E.g. to lay bottom mine(s).

[junior moat]

After reading some articles I think bottom mines is unlikely, because they'd be much easier to attribute to a specific actor compared to just a pile of excessive amount of explosives

[raw nexus]

We always think about a bigger ship, but what is when the explosives were brought by a smaller, no one could record

[junior moat]

also I have the impression quite a few journalists already know a lot more & I wonder what holds them back from publishing that information .. it's just rumors but none has gotten the 'go' from their sources to make it public apparently

what's interesting is that all of them appear to stick to these 'agreements'

[pure vine]

the problem of a smaller ship is the weight

[junior moat]

Michael Weiss said when it becomes public what he believes he knows "it will be quite amusing to see the reaction"
what on earth does he mean by this ? 😄

[pure vine]

explosives are heavy

[raw nexus]

We don't know the exact weight

[junior moat]

ex-military non-state-affiliated Ukrainians .. apparently

[pure vine]

any estimate we've seen would require diving would require a bigger boat

we can't just wish away human limitations based off "vibes" and "training"

[raw nexus]

When, it's a side player. This was to target the EU imho

[raw nexus]

I meant as a second boat, without gear and divers

[pure vine]

even then, if you're doing a series of 100m dives you're either spending a month at sea or using a decompression rig

not really, a cheapo fishfinder can spot ns

and even then, an rv that can go down to that depth is also somewhat cheap

even then, drop a diving shot and follow it down

there are two statements

1: diving from the andromeda down to ns2 is possible (true)
2: doing a series of technical dives from andromeda to plant explosives in ns2 is possible (unclear)

[serene grove]

either or both, doesn't matter which, it's 80m either way

I guess I'm not saying it's impossible to do this from the andromeda, but nobody in their right mind would plan it using that boat

there are relevant EEZ lines around it

that sorta constrain people who want to avoid breaking certain rules

[pure vine]

a sub in the baltic would get picked up, a sailboat in the baltic most people would just think "huh weird but you do you"

[pure vine]

or want to avoid raising suspicion

[serene grove]

now that I think about it...if you can pick up a sub on hydrophones, can you pick up an ROV?

probably not, very different screw RPMs and power levels

[shy fulcrum]

Inspection ROVs and load-bearing ROVs are very different things. The latter ones are very big (around 1 ton) and require a dedicated vessel.

AKA work class ROV vs observation ROV.

[serene grove]

so the ones we were looking at were like oilfield services ones that can fit on two oversized cargo pallets or a 20 ft shipping container

[pure vine]

yeah but they weigh more than the andromeda can carry

[serene grove]

also they take a crapload of power

[shy fulcrum]

There is also a "light work class" type ROV - but it will still require a dedicated vessel with crane etc. Weight: 525 kg.

http://www.rovinnovations.com/uploads/1/6/8/5/16857772/light_work_class_rov.pdf

[next dirge]

What would the benefit of using a sailboat out of all things be anyway? Surely even a motorboat would be superior in every conceivable way?

[boreal plover]

I think a new crew, in on the op, wouldn't be able to just jump into a new ship and steam away. They'd need familiarisation training on the power plant, safety management system, nav & comm systems, handling characteristics etc, @sand delta is that right? Maybe some of it could be done in advance, on shore,..?

[pure vine]

possibly availability

[next dirge]

What kind of supposed Ukrainian oligarch can’t get hold of a yacht

[shy fulcrum]

They love bigger boats!

[next dirge]

When you can get 1000kg of explosives but not a motorboat

Putin has incentives to implicate NATO/USA, I wouldn’t take his word for it

Has anyone looked into similarities between Nord Stream and Kerch bridge explosion? Weeks apart, supposedly committed by Ukraine, lots of explosives and Bulgaria connection for both

[junior moat]

😄 everyone gets to have selfies/videos with Andromeda now .. I want one too 😥
https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/krigogkatastrofer/sabotage-her-er-den-mystiske-baad/9676055

[raw nexus]

They all read in here

[pure vine]

damn they drove a truck down to nord stream?

[junior moat]

well if the Kerch bridge explosion group had a few 100 kilograms of explosives 'left over' maybe they ended up in the Baltic 😉

[pure vine]

iirc kerch was anfo

if they blew up ns with anfo these guys are wizard

[junior moat]

no idea quick googling gave me the impression nobody knows which explosives were used in that Kerch attack either

[pure vine]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1578680852770607104?s=20

Christo Grozev (@christogrozev)

One possible scenario: the truck was full of something ostensibly legitimate (but weaponizeable). For example ammonia nitrate. Fertilizer.

Likes

1004

Twitter · Oct 8, 2022, 9:37 AM

this christo guy seems smart we should have him investigating stuff

[limber hinge]

I think that is km/hrs?
Hard time reading in Android screen, extreme left
Roughly
1m/s = 2kt = 3.6km/hr
40m/s = 80 knots
40km/hr = 22 knots

[junior moat]

don't think they had to 'keep position'

but unload 400kg of explosives in 3m high waves without it floating away never to be found 😄

[nimble gull]

I mean, it is being leaked right now.

[limber hinge]

The problem is getting back into the boat.
The dive itself is no different, as you say.
The boat, especially that flap down transom is killer

[limber hinge]

Very roughly 12 to 24.
You need a minimum number of watch sanders, some deck crew, engine crew, cook. There can be overlap, but 12 is pretty low.

[shy fulcrum]

40 m/s. Standard measurement for wind force.

Oh yes! I see it now!

40 m/s would be extreme. But still: wind strong enough to generate 3m waves..

[raw nexus]

How does that get storaged, is it in containers?

[raw nexus]

Reminder, that they found the traces of the explosives on the table

[junior moat]

yes someone suggested it was stored in separate plastic bags

and had to be assembled and this way residue ended up on the table

but what do I know

[sand delta]

A new crew would immediately fail a port state control inspection. Ships are routinely detained for failing their mandatory fire, man overboard and other drills, because they aren't familiar with the ship and beyond having to be carried out every month, you also have to do it when more than 25% of the crew change at once. The Minerva Julie was even delayed in Antwerpen 2 years ago (one of the things wrong with it).

Theoretically, if you found Ukrainian/Russian sailors with some years of tanker experience, you'd be better off just letting them come on over time.

[raw nexus]

This all makes no sense

[elfin cradle]

Like this. Semtex are basically waterproof by default. So you just need to keep it together. But they come in block of 500g-3kg, in a bulk pack of 25kg (irrc that max 25kg per bulk pack is due some EU rule to not transport to much high explosive at the same time, may be wrong)

I wonder why 10h is a limit?

https://explosia.cz/app/uploads/2016/07/Semtex1A-manual_10-12-2015_en.pdf

[limber hinge]

I think that was me.
Not exactly plastic bags, but there are very tough "plastic" bags used to transport sand and demolitions debris that are sufficient for the job.
There is no crane to lift the required weight intothe water, but if you just chuck bricks of explosive into a floating bag then you can do it.
In calm water.

[elfin cradle]

Like these as they use at construction sites?

[limber hinge]

EXACTLY
Thanks

[raw nexus]

Thx. I can't imagine that they put the explosives into the yacht and I can't really explain other ways, but no, I don't think they did that in Rostock

[raw nexus]

Oh just see this now

[elfin cradle]

The amount of explosives for 1 blast would fit in 2 of these camping duffels (2x 150L). Would not look too suspicious to take onto a boat. Just put to of these bags on a rope and lower down from the side of the boat and let a diver guide it to the pipe. Done.

[sand delta]

fwiw, you can even get these bags which are certified and especially reinforced to be used as undersling bags on a helicopter

and at only 9 pounds per, a steal

[sand delta]

Chocolate man.

[junior moat]

🍫

[sand delta]

If the non-libel suggestion stuff is to be believed anyways.

Born on 26th September, Ukrainian, formerly very politically active, businessman.

[junior moat]

checks out for sure ✅

another interview for the "is the diving operation possible" discussion group :

"open in browser / new tab" and then go 100% zoom

should work, right ?

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad9wIFFN0NY

9 divers diving to the Graf Zeppelin wreck in the Baltic which is about 70m deep.

And probably more tanks out of the way.

"in our group of 3 we dived with our JJ-CCR." https://jj-ccr.com/the-jj-ccr-rebreather/

Yea, I don't think any divers are going to care too much with the buddy system, four dives, four sets of tanks.

[junior moat]

rebreather, semtex ✅

if no new news regarding Andromeda are available you can always check out wether Jan Oberg has anything new to say by the way 🥴
Jan Oberg – only real Swedish expert, everyone else is an amateur

[junior moat]

what's with the pictures and candles ? is this some witchcraft ritual ?

black magic

[sand delta]

It's a séance to communicate with the dead Nordstream 1 & 2.

[sand delta]

I want some more drips from Spiegel/Zeit/Kontraste/etc.

I know @junior moat unironically replied to this

https://twitter.com/Georg_Heil/status/1635681296650326016

Georg Heil (@Georg_Heil)

„The name of the suspected private sponsor, a Ukrainian not affiliated with President Zelensky’s government, has been circulating in intelligence circles for months but not revealed.“
#Nordstream

https://t.co/N3Tp5BWaLQ

Twitter · Mar 14, 2023, 4:36 PM

But, how do the German investigators not know this.

or well, why are they using the Times lol

[elfin cradle]

Jan Oberg and his buddy Johan Galtung smoked a bit to much weed in the 80s and is hard spiritualistic tankies.

[junior moat]

but apparently he's the no.1 expert about Swedish affairs on Chinese state TV .. so props for that I guess

[elfin cradle]

Yeah, I know.. Because he is more left than CCP..

[sand delta]

More red flags than a Chinese military parade.

[elfin cradle]

I really dont get why a medic would be onboard. It feels like a unessecary detail, just as the many weird details in Hersh story. If you get Decompression sickness there is not much you can do if you dont go under water again or decomprssion chamber.

[sand delta]

The mad thing is that there is no proof that (a) she was even a woman, and (b) she was a medic, beyond pretty sexist/ridiculous assumptions.

It's assumed she's a woman because she's small (they noticed a "petite person" amongst the group), and it's assumed because she's a woman she's a medic, but by the same token we could say that her role was as cook for god sakes.

The description of the group jobs are a bit weird, they describe someone as a skipper/captain, but all that means is that they used that person I suppose as the person with all the certifications, there's no need for that person to have always been at the wheel for example, you'll see children sailing yachts sometimes.

And then amongst the other four, 2 divers and 2 diving assistants, surely someone who is capable of assisting a technical diver is also a technical diver themselves. It's not like you'd be carrying out this operation on a shoestring budget.

[velvet rain]

I think she was explicitly described as a woman in the early reports. Agree with the rest though.

[sand delta]

I'm talking about the basis for those reports, this is reportedly why they assume she's a woman.

(Not saying we were making those assumptions, this is what people who've talked to the German journos have said)

This is where the "attractive" thing came from.

https://twitter.com/erkperk/status/1634169560571019266

Erik Andersson 🐘 (@Erkperk)

@BillyBostickson Took a look at Bellingcat discussions -didn't see the proof you're awaiting but at least they found the female crew member was the doctor and she's good looking. Must confess I was wrong about Nuland.

Twitter · Mar 10, 2023, 12:29 PM

[limber hinge]

I think a common mistake here is to focus on one aspect too much. For instance 4 divers when thinking about diving.
I see a huge need for capable sail crew, and that is as challenging as the diving, especially if the weather was not ideal.
The divers do their thing and are spent. The sail crew needs to manage the boat 24x7 for several days, that is tiring.
And this is not a great sea boat.
Is is likely She won't hove too easily, and will need a lot of management.
And will be uncomfortable.
2 captains, good sailors
2 divers
2 strong crew, deck apes

It would be really good to get some bouydata, weather, to see what conditions really were.

[sand delta]

I'm surprised by the lack of weather buoys in the area.

[mossy star]

oh very interesting, i'll put it out on the crowdsource

just now catching up

[limber hinge]

Me too.
Just did a quick look for archived data, not instantly visible.

[mossy star]

that photo still need analysis/etc?

from thw ebcam

[sand delta]

The windows and design are a bit off, even if we were convinced it was, it wouldn't be an ideal proof to give, people wouldn't believe it.

#1072947857654554624 message

this is the rough viewing area

[limber hinge]

Peter,
I don't know. I have the impression he is posturing.
I would bet that if he were put on the spot he would take a closer look and sing a different tune.
He is selling his tough man image.
I could be wrong, gut impression.

[sand delta]

fwiw, Mr. Schloeffel has the world record for crossing the English Channel underwater.

[limber hinge]

Well there you go, he's your man.

[sand delta]

I believe he may have also been the first person to do it.

[limber hinge]

Just set out from shore, no boat needed.

[sand delta]

He did it at a depth of 20m.

Not knowing anything about diving

Surely if you used a Bonex thing like that, you could quickly zip down to the seafloor

plant, and come back up.

Surely you wouldn't have the bends from a super quick journey, nitrogen has to build up right?

[boreal plover]

those woven rubble sacks aren't even waterproof on land 😉 but for sure there are waterproof bags that could be used.

[limber hinge]

You still have to plant the charge, which means getting the drop line right. There is bottom time.
AND you would, very literally, be betting your life on it.

[next lagoon]

Theoretically speaking they could get by with just the dive team

[limber hinge]

If I understand correctly you do not need waterproof, the charge itself is waterproof.
You want it to leak to let trapped air tk escape so it can fall.

[next lagoon]

When US sends out the non-mil teams for those matters it's usually just who dives, sometimes a +1 for piloting

There was a good (and sad) article the other year who talked about 4 guys going missing on an op, after they kicked off from the launch location it was just those 4 (who were all also going to dive)

Granted a rando civilian team doing that would probably run into more issues

[boreal plover]

Yes, but only good for 10h water exposure according to the dataset @elfin cradle posted above

[elfin cradle]

Nah, I think that is only a recomendation. It would be useable for much longer. Like drugs have an expired date but works years afteer.

[true barn]

there are plenty of people in this world crossing oceans on similar yachts single handed

[boreal plover]

ah, ok, thanks

[elfin cradle]

The binder in Semtex is basically synthetic rubber. And RDX is insolvable in water.

[pure vine]

jesus why do we even quote this guy, he's so obviously trying to pretend he's some kind of underwater teutonic james bond

[elfin cradle]

I think that 10h is just legalnese to dont blame the manufacture if it goes wrong. More likley the detonators are affected by moisture.

Fun fact, you can make plastic explosives from many artificial sweeteners like Xylitol, Erythritol, Mannitol, etc.

[carmine summit]

Some of his info is useful for instance that there are only "hundreds" of such qualified technical divers in germany. That really narrows it down in countries like Russia Ukraine. where many of these 'qualified people' have email addresses like [email protected]

[next lagoon]

If it is Russia at least we can rest assured they'll all have the same passport batch number

[sand delta]

@velvet rain We’re you the one who used Chat-GPT?

To write the poem

[mortal halo]

Hi, I just wanted to check something I might have overlooked: Who actually confirmed that explosives were found on the ship? One of the earliest mentionings is here (I think): https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Nord-Stream-Anschlaege-Was-wir-wissen,audio1335248.html
Here Holger Schmidt (SWR, ARD) says: "Ja, guten Morgen. Das mit dem Schiff, das ist gesichert und das in dem Schiff Sprengstoff Spuren gefunden worden sind, das hat die Bundesanwaltschaft nicht bestätigt." 00:43 - 00:53

[sand delta]

Explosive residue was found on the yacht.

According to reports, during the German police inspection of the yacht, which happened at the end of January, the exact dates were said before but I can’t recall off the top of my head.

[rustic bay]

According to who, is what Alex needs to know. A link or source is needed

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/georg_heil/status/1633154817446014988

Georg Heil (@Georg_Heil)

Five men and one woman - investigators believe the team consisted of two divers, to assistants, one captain and a medic. Investigators found forensic evidence on a table on the Yacht: traces of explosives #Nordstream

Twitter · Mar 7, 2023, 5:17 PM

George Heil being one of the original ZEIT et al team.

I don’t think they’ve ever said that explosives were found, just forensic traces.

[mortal halo]

I am actually quite baffled: The GBA (Generalbundesanwalt), the state prosecutor would be leading the inquiry, with the police at his disposal. And Holger Schmidt would (probably) be getting his information from that side. Georg Heil, as his colleague, would then be getting his information from Schmidt.

[elfin cradle]

Isnt this all we know?
I have not seen any official source say they found explosives except German news.

"There is suspicion that the ship in question could have been used to transport explosive devices that exploded"

https://discordapp.com/channels/709752884257882135/1072947857654554624/1083104170401337484

[sand delta]

Yea, the boat was returned sometime late September and then sat around unused until the police inspection in January.

[elfin cradle]

As far as we know that Traces of explosives is only still RUMINT?

[mortal halo]

And has it also been mentioned already that Holger Schmidt says that the white van showed up in Rostock?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB877rlQouI

[sand delta]

Yes, a lieferwagen

[velvet rain]

As requested by @sand delta

[sand delta]

Exquisite.

[velvet rain]

I exclusively use it for generating shitty poetry, of course.

[raw nexus]

Who knows, maybe the kitchen crew starts singing soon

[sand delta]

Dumbass question

To sail a yacht you need at least some licences, a navigation licence and a radio licence at least.

We have heard the two passports were Bulgarian, but would Mola accept foreign marine licences, I’m sure they would right?

[pure vine]

yeah, especially if eu

[sand delta]

Especially in view of the EU, you have to recognise other EU member states qualifications by EU law

For example the Netherlands accepts EU (non Netherlands ofc) seafarers medical

So when I have to renew that, I can theoretically go to any EU country I want

[velvet rain]

Just wondering, since I didn't follow the discussion earlier: Would running exclusively on engine power with sails down (as dumb as that may be) cut down on crew/skill requirements?

[sand delta]

There’s less skill needed if you’re not having to manage the wind yea.

[velvet rain]

Running on engine alone would explain the second Wiek stop.

Maybe they didn't even want a sail yacht, but they were limited by stuff like for example

• boat availability
• wanting to be less conspicuous
• license/permission issues

[sand delta]

as I understand "less suspicious" is connected with using sails. doing all the time pointless maneuvers during rough weather conditions without sails seems suspicious

[deft crescent]

If anyone wants to try some ridiculous identifications based on the visible masts - according to the file names on these two photos they were taken on Christiansø on September 18th. They're the only photos I've found so far taken on Christiansø between the 16th and 18th. https://goo.gl/maps/YwD3YJkwHhK4NhYh6 https://goo.gl/maps/fMauihdjGHhmxVDT6

[velvet rain]

I can only see two sailboats there and neither of those are her.

[deft crescent]

I'm thinking of the masts behind the buildings on the right, although that might be rather ludicrous

[velvet rain]

Oh, those aren't boats.

The big one is a pole right next to the harbour.

[velvet rain]

Random harbour photo for reference

Should be this one, shouldn't it?

[sand delta]

the uploader is a Polish man 👀 😄

[deft crescent]

I think that's this one with the flag on top

[deft crescent]

I messaged him a few days ago asking if he had more photos but have yet to hear back

[true barn]

these "masts" behind buildings are way too big for belonging to 50 foot yachts

[whole thunder]

If there would be an radar reflector......

#1072947857654554624 message

#1072947857654554624 message

#1072947857654554624 message

[deft crescent]

The radar reflector evidently can be raised or lowered though, so it may just not be visible

[sand delta]

Great find!

[whole thunder]

possible, but why should they

It's is similar

[sand delta]

Wow.

I suppose the one issue is that masts aren’t terribly unique.

But looks the same.

[sand delta]

do you know how high the flagpole is, or how are you sure?+

[deft crescent]

Yeah that's the big problem

[sand delta]

If he does have additional photos, these photos might not have even been seen by Danish police.

I doubt a random Pole is reading the Danish language official Facebook page 3 months later.

[velvet rain]

@deft crescent you're definitely right here, I completely misjudged the perspective.

[true barn]

okay, after looking at it again, it could be deceptive because of the angle and stuff. I'm NOT sure.

[velvet rain]

The downhill thing is deceptive

[true barn]

Bavaria 50 Cruiser - 20-22m mast height

(no time to filter down, ballpark should be enough for now)

[velvet rain]

Rough estimate of the location of the mast based on the available photos

[deft crescent]

Yeah the combination of wide angle and downhill is not great, plus there's a big setback between the water and the building

[sand delta]

focal height of lighthouse 29 metres

[true barn]

it looks comically big, probably because of the rather small boats anchoring there

[sand delta]

focal height

[true barn]

so to do a 180deg turn, these masts could indeed belong to a 50 foot yacht unless proven otherwise

[whole thunder]

Wouldn't it be funny if that's the same comparison the german Journalist have done to figure out Andromeda was there?😂

[sand delta]

I think it is easier to just talk with the harbor master 😄

[velvet rain]

https://goo.gl/maps/8Q4JfpExmu2tivWFA
Very similar mast but a few weeks earlier. Not a good sign.

[limber hinge]

True, and I have done some multidays myself.
But that is a very different proposition than this case.
One guy on a mission vs 6 blokes lolling around for days.

[junior moat]

HD photo of harbour facilities - as we know by now, no diesel pump

if anyone wants to watch a random Danish TV show, Christiansø is featured starting minute 11: https://www.dr.dk/drtv/se/gintberg-paa-kanten_-kunsthaandvaerk-i-gudhjem_337847

it was aired end of Sept 2022 so I fear these shots are from much earlier, but who knows

[deft crescent]

This is September 28th from the other side https://goo.gl/maps/vfnoSxBmqf1mMhtG6

[sand delta]

So confirmed not?

[deft crescent]

I should note though it seems like boats parked in this area change out with some frequency - I doubt that many people are staying at Christiansø for an extended period of time and it seems they sometimes use this area for loading and unloading: https://goo.gl/maps/v6KDiWB3vyKMwCpB9

[deft crescent]

I don't think it's confirmed not, I just think that a determination can't be made without pictures taken on the 18th from a different angle as the mast in the photo is too similar to others to make a positive identification from.

[velvet rain]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CiqTM3XMaLL/

kringlet_christiansoe

Himlen over Christiansø har været ret vild i dag med truende skyer, stille vejr, regn, og tilsidst en smuk solnedgang.

Instagram

Found a much closer photo that may be the same mast

Date matches

Wrong way around though

[sand delta]

There’s going to be a picture of this damn boat on social media.

[rocky wolf]

I've been out for a day or two working on a customer case. Which dates are of interest in Denmark ?

[sand delta]

According to a (now deleted) Facebook post posted on January 5th this year on Christiansø administration’s official Facebook (which seems like a community page where the entire island shares pictures of what they got up to), the Danish police requested photos from islanders taken on September 16th-18th.

They later came to the island and spoke to islanders who had responded to the Facebook post.

[rocky wolf]

Thanks @sand delta appreciate the summary

[sand delta]

In addition to inspecting the islands paperwork, and in particularly their “port machine” which probably refers to the records system where visiting boaters have to pay X for a berth in Christiansø’s harbour.

[rocky wolf]

what about the AIS-data in DK then, I remember someone here downloading it ?

[sand delta]

Andromeda isn’t AIS equipped.

[rocky wolf]

We know the MMSI now right ? 211597740

[deft crescent]

This may be the boat in that photo (Link removed as it was to an individual's social media account, DM me if you need it)

[sand delta]

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/nord-stream-pipeline-anschlaege-polizei-suchte-nach-boot-auf-daenischer-ostsee-insel-christianso-li.326230?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2oz5g1Hjz2_FB3II1ZnDdvDFgBeBPgC1JoBKrF3mttf7QAeCJiTxjtTWM#Echobox=1678450957

[sand delta]

Yes, the reporters on board took pictures.

But it’s also not showing up on Yaddnet’s DSC archive, so presumably it wasn’t doing VHF checks (but it doesn’t have to, I suppose)

[sand delta]

It’s not a very big island, and they’ve been searching for months?

[sand delta]

Nice 🙂

[sand delta]

They asked in December and visited on 18 January

So around the same time the Germans inspected the Andromeda on the Bug?

From 18 to 20 January Germans inspected Andromeda in Bug, so yes

[limber hinge]

We have assumed the Andromeda could be used to
1 as a dive platform
2 to detonate the explosives
3 as a distraction
4 unrelated entirely

Are there any other reasons why someone would want this vessle in connection with NordStream?

For example, perhaps to provide secure comms from the sub to a base?

But just asking in general, not trying to direct the answers.

[sand delta]

I guess planting evidence (false flag) counts as distraction?

[junior moat]

by the way this call sign from the photo indicates that Andromeda was not entered into the official ship register at Rostock: https://www.segeln-lernen.de/segellexikon-rufzeichen.html
not that it matters much

[deft crescent]

The same person who shared the photo on the 18th also shared this trip report later on: https://youtu.be/xYr0dpSyLBk?t=709

[rocky wolf]

I'm going to search the DK-AIS logs for MMSI's which haven't had any entries before a certain date

211597740 returns NOTHING anywhere..

Thing is.. MMSI's are also assigned to handheld devices if I remember correctly

[rocky wolf]

Think emergency systems etc

[sand delta]

It has a fixed system.

[rocky wolf]

hmm, could give something then.. but it would be helpful if we knew the date. Maybe I'll just grab 6th of September -> 20th of September or something like that. Each day is about 1.2 GB of data though

[velvet rain]

What are you trying to find though?

[sand delta]

We know for certain it doesn’t have an AIS installation.

[velvet rain]

Are you assuming they brought their own AIS-capable device?

[rocky wolf]

Using DK MMSI-data for September. Looking for MMSI:s unknown for the whole of September but with a certain date interval. I imagine that some MMSI:s are going to be known and pass quite frequently.

[junior moat]

do we know the dates those guys from the video were there in Christiansø ? Harbour doesn't look very crowded

[velvet rain]

MMSIs are used in lots of other things that are not AIS.

[rocky wolf]

Since every day is about 1.2 GB and some ships maybe pass every 1-2 months it might have to expand into august as well

[rocky wolf]

I know.. but given that we don't have any other information at this point it's one path to travel

[sand delta]

The MMSI is registered

[rocky wolf]

Yes sorry I meant it doesn't resolve to any ship spotting or marinetraffic-route etc

[sand delta]

Because to show up on those, you need to have an AIS.

[deft crescent]

No, although my best guess is they arrived the evening of the 18th (likely after the Andromeda left) based on the previously shared facebook post #1072947857654554624 message

[junior moat]

whoa, so close

imagine

full video of Andromeda would have been the dream

[sand delta]

One thing worth noting

[sand delta]

The weather looks not bad.

Sea is a little choppy, but nothing uncomfortable.

[limber hinge]

Do you mean, for example, they had a stolen AIS, or one removed from a different boat?
It would be easy enough to do.
You only need a VHF antenna and a GPS antenna, if not within the AIS.
That way they could track, and be seen (maybe) without revealing their true identity

[rocky wolf]

I would imagine that they had some kind of emergency or other registered sea-communication device with them

[sand delta]

An EPIRB

Or a SART

[rocky wolf]

I can filter out those "new" to Denmark given a set of data (dates most importantly) Then these MMSI:s (if not too many) can be investigated and ruled out or not

[sand delta]

Doesnt make any sense to me. After the other boat sees it is stolen, they are visible and suspicious

[rocky wolf]

That might give a hint of who they were.. or not

[sand delta]

EPIRB

SART

[limber hinge]

Andromeda should have an EPIRB, but that does us no good. It never transmitts.

[sand delta]

Yea, it transmitting causes all hell to go loose, it’s an emergency distress thing.

[limber hinge]

Could be a new off the shelf unit.

[sand delta]

Why would you willingly carry an AIS?

I mean I know why I want an AIS on my ship, but it’s not a distress indicator.

[rocky wolf]

We might have to go back a couple of months to filter interesting data. Which MMSI's have not been known for this specific coordinates since X-date

[sand delta]

His instagram https://www.instagram.com/michal_kot83/?hl=de

[velvet rain]

You are going to have a lot of results. The world is big.

There are many ships

[limber hinge]

I don't know.
A rx only to follow others, but that would not help us.
But maybe these characters were not that smart?
The Baltic is a busy place, so maybe they wanted to be seen by someone watching Marine Traffic?
I was just trying to understand what the other guy here (developer?) is searching for?

[rocky wolf]

Probably so

[sand delta]

Oh true, an AIS receiver to keep an eye out would be a good thing to have.

[true barn]

#1072947857654554624 message

ais data ^

[rocky wolf]

AIS is a tracking device.. but some countries record MMSI as well as I understand it. MMSI might be tied to a handheld emergency-device or communications radio etc.

I might be wrong

[sand delta]

You’ve to transmit a DSC call for your MMSI to be recorded.

[rocky wolf]

I like to use AI when my knowledge is lacking.. this is what GPT4 has to say about it

MMSI (Maritime Mobile Service Identity) numbers are primarily assigned to vessels for identification and communication purposes. These numbers are used by the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to track and monitor maritime traffic.

However, MMSI numbers can also be assigned to handheld devices such as VHF radios with Digital Selective Calling (DSC) and AIS capabilities. These devices are typically used for safety purposes, allowing users to send distress signals or communicate with nearby vessels. When assigned to a handheld device, the MMSI number usually indicates that the device is associated with a specific vessel or a shore station.

In summary, while MMSI numbers are primarily assigned to vessels, they can also be assigned to certain handheld devices with communication features relevant to maritime operations.

[sand delta]

A VHF transmission is just a transmission over the air, there’s nothing to record.

[rocky wolf]

"VHF radios with Digital Selective Calling (DSC) and AIS capabilities"

[distant olive]

They not only can be programmed, they should, if you ask the FCC:

“If you have a marine radio with DSC capability, you must obtain a nine-digit maritime mobile service identity number, and have it programmed into the unit before you transmit.”

[sand delta]

Other than direction finding capabilities. If I go out on VHF normally and start calling Germany a failed state and saying all Swiss deserve to die, I can’t be identified

A DSC VHF call is a use of VHF like follows

You put in the details you want

The priority of the message, who you’re calling, etc

Then it makes a normal VHF call, but instead of going out on Ch 16 or whatever, it goes out on Ch 70, the dedicated DSC VHF channel

But the call it’s making isn’t words

It’s beeps and bops

[true barn]

seems like one of the yachts in christianso during 16-18th was involved in a deadly accident back in 2011: https://www.rolfdreyer.de/downloads/Tod_auf Ausbildungstoern.pdf

[sand delta]

Which is a decipherable code

It’s just blaring out on Channel 70

MMSI 7373829292

I’m calling you

I’m calling you

Pick up please

Pick up please

Priority Mayday

[rocky wolf]

Of course you can, if you verbally inform about your MMSI verbally 👋

😉

[sand delta]

Their VHF unit picks this up

And says “oh shit, someone is calling me”

And gives you an alert

Which you click “acknowledge”

It sends a quick Acknowledgment beep and bop back out on the radio waves to who called you

Part of the call also specifies a VHF channel to automatically switch both units to

So then both vessels know they are on the line with each other

And that they are both expecting you to talk

And then you talk

[sand delta]

Have you found anything interesting in this document?

The Danish Coast Guard probably has a record of what’s going out on the VHF airwaves

Like a live recording

[true barn]

nope, just a tragic accident

[junior moat]

in case you're interested in reading yet another time that Seymour H just wrote down only random crap from who-knows-where ...
here is a super-long-and-detailed article building on Oliver's work
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1636051827006291968
in case you need to direct the conspiracy gang to read some quality content (which they won't – looking at you @JanOberg !! 😠 )

The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N)

Excellent work by @faktisk_no, building on the work done by @OAlexanderDK and with additional imagery and official statements from the Royal Norwegian Navy, debunking Hersh's Nord Stream fairytale.

Twitter · Mar 15, 2023, 5:08 PM

[rocky wolf]

Thanks, I have no experience in this area.

[sand delta]

It’s fine.

[sand delta]

Probably Herh's paychecks should be investigated

[true barn]

related to the christianso harbor photos. two sailing yachts were there:

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/211544130

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/211128480

and one motor boat:

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/219018255

besides some bigger vessels

how to remove embedded pages in mobile app

[tired monolith]

Faktisk.no has contacted Seymour Hersh for comments on the article. The American's short answer is that "my comments are in my articles". aka "trust me bro" combined with "I only talk to those who pays the most under the table" 😉

[rocky wolf]

Hit me up with a DM

[sand delta]

How do you get historical AIS data?

[distant olive]

Neat destination

[serene grove]

"my destination is, here is exactly how far I want you to fuck off" lmao

[true barn]

denmark has an archive: http://web.ais.dk/aisdata/

[serene grove]

military mariners are a fun bunch

[junior moat]

"Wieck/Darß cannot be correct" -> journalist : oh wow, sorry, let me correct that.
"Norway had no Alta-class at BALTOPS" -> Hersh : I know better what ships the Norwegians have than the Norwegians do

[junior moat]

you can pay for it at marinetraffic and some other sites
7 day free trial also possible
actually 14 days if you're being a bit tricky 😉

[sand delta]

have you checked the AIS of all ships being in/near Christianso 16-18 September? Maybe just contacting and asking if they have seen sth 😄 ?

Just regarding radio traffic, there’s part of having a radio licence that requires you to swear an oath to radio secrecy.

Legally*, you can lose your licence for sharing any information you hear over the radio with someone.

okay, but not for what you have seen with your eyes?

[silk blade]

What actual Licence and country?

[sand delta]

Correct.

[boreal plover]

another possibility - carrying divers (or ROV operators?) to work from another vessel, presumably MJ

[sand delta]

The one I have is a GMDSS GOC.

[silk blade]

Is that a ham/amateur licence?

[sand delta]

It’s a merchant mariners unlimited radio licence.

https://rnli-lrc.org.uk/secrecy_of_correspondence.html

[junior moat]

I have ... there is really not many AIS-enabled ships in Christiansø .. it's mostly the ferries and then I believe one sailing yacht
I'll have another look

[silk blade]

OK what country?, I have a UK FRTOL (Flight radio telephony) and I have no secrecy conditions

[sand delta]

The Netherlands, but it’s the same with every other country I’ve ever talked to.

See above from the British RNLI

[sand delta]

could you share which sailing yacht? Probably the Polish guys

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/47/80.88

Same rules in US Code.

[silk blade]

Thanks, Iguess this is commercial and recue operators only licence not an amateur/recreational licence?

[velvet rain]

In Germany you can even go to prison for that as far as I know.

[sand delta]

It’s the highest level of maritime radio licence that you can get.

I can operate any maritime radio on any frequency at any strength (within reason)

[silk blade]

I understand, I would not expect a general amateur Licence to have that secrecy demand

[sand delta]

VHF, MF/HF, Inmarsat, EPIRB, SART, Radiotelex, etc.

[silk blade]

Its a little incongrous in its wording, I mean there are obvious exceptions to secrecy

[sand delta]

No, a SRC (short range certificate, that a yacht person might have) also has it.

[sand delta]

Yea, you can share it with a responsible person.

Not the world.

[silk blade]

Exceptions to secrecy In usage I mean...nobody would be expected to keep a mayday call secret for instance

You would be expected to share that with everyone

[sand delta]

What I’m saying is that

You can share the contents to someone who has a need to have it

[serene grove]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1636057988212441090 if it turns out to be 5 men and a petite woman...lol

The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)

⚡️Media: 6 detained as Russian spy network broken up in Poland.

Poland's Internal Security Agency has detained 6 people part of a Russian spy ring who are alleged to have been spying on transfer points for weapons to Ukraine and planning acts of sabotage, according to RMF24.

Twitter · Mar 15, 2023, 5:33 PM

[sand delta]

You can’t share the contents just cos you want to.

[silk blade]

I know what you mean

[sand delta]

The entire point of this is to prevent information like saying

Oh a ship has gone down

[deft crescent]

The polish guys were on the Passie, although I had trouble getting an MMSI - there aren't any vessels named Passie from Poland in the itu database, and there were about ten vessels named Passie from the Netherlands and from Germany, but I don't have the time right now to narrow down which one exactly it is. If we had the MMSI and the Passie had AIS we could figure out for certain when the Passie was in Christiansø

[sand delta]

And you’ve heard over the radio that the Coast Guard is saying “everyone’s dead”

It’s to prevent information from not going through proper channels.

[sand delta]

And for that exact example

You do what’s known as a Mayday Relay

[junior moat]

so these three are already there on the morning of 16th

[sand delta]

I highly doubt the Andromeda was making any radio transmissions of any kind.

[sand delta]

🫣

[sand delta]

Two Danish, one German.

211 is German, 219 is Danish.

[junior moat]

"Peter" and "Ertholm" I'm gonna leave out these are the ferries, they come and go all the time

Madvia leaves on 17th at 0200 UTC

in between every now and then some small SAR boat turns on its AIS on and off

who knows what that is

17th 1130 UTC "Special One" arrives

[boreal plover]

"Elephanten"? There's a piece of what looks like "ELEPHAN.." painted on it in the foreground of the @deft crescent posted (Edit - link corrected, I hope. No, still wrong. Here?? At 16:34 anyway https://goo.gl/maps/vfnoSxBmqf1mMhtG6

the 'N' appears to be the backwards Cyrillic character...

shrug

[limber hinge]

A LOT of ys turn off our AIS when in Port or in an Anchorage.
That is a bit controversial, to some.
OTOH, if you are just laying jn a Beth tied up for a while AIS provides no real function.

[junior moat]

18th Sept 0830 Special One leaves again

[sand delta]

has someone searched those photos? Scrolling down need for ever :/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/610764999965505/media

[junior moat]

19th Sept 0150 UTC Elephanten leaves

that's it when it comes to sailing ships / small vessels

[junior moat]

but I did find something pretty interesting as an extra occurance
there is a "Nato warship" on the 15th and 16th which suddenly appears in Christiansø and only very briefly turns on AIS when really near the harbour

[pure finch]

👋 what I miss?

[sand delta]

Just for your own benefit, since these are ITU regulations which apply to all radio users, whether maritime, aviation, or otherwise. ITU Regulation 18:

18.4 § 2 The holder of a licence is required to preserve the secrecy of telecommunications, as provided in the relevant provisions of the Constitution and the Convention. Moreover, the licence shall mention, specifically or by reference, that if the station includes a receiver, the interception of radiocommunication correspondence, other than that which the station is authorized to receive, is forbidden, and that in cases where such correspondence is involuntarily received, it shall not be reproduced, nor communicated to third parties, nor used for any purpose, and even its existence shall not be disclosed.

And just specifically in your UK FRTOL's case, Article 37:

37.11 § 4 Each administration shall take the necessary steps to place operators under the obligation to preserve the secrecy of correspondence as provided for in No. 18.4.

Which is brought into force by the UK's Wireless Telegraphy Act 2006

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/36/pdfs/ukpga_20060036_en.pdf

48. Interception and disclosure of messages
    (1) A person commits an offence if, otherwise than under the authority of a
    designated person
    (a) he uses wireless telegraphy apparatus with intent to obtain information
    as to the contents, sender or addressee of a message (whether sent by
    means of wireless telegraphy or not) of which neither he nor a person
    on whose behalf he is acting is an intended recipient, or
    (b) he discloses information as to the contents, sender or addressee of such
    a message.
    (2) A person commits an offence under this section consisting in the disclosure of information only if the information disclosed by him is information that would
    not have come to his knowledge but for the use of wireless telegraphy
    apparatus by him or by another person.

Just for your own benefit, I'd rather you keep your FRTOL 😉

[limber hinge]

Wrong port light configurtion

[junior moat]

may actually be good to pin down time in photos whether Special One can be seen in harbour or not

Danish navy just casually transporting stuff in and out of Christiansø .... explosives 🧀 🧀 🧀 ?

[sand delta]

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/photos/of/ships/shipid:3444023/shipname:SPECIAL ONE

[sand delta]

Christianso is an MoD island.

It residents don't pay municipal taxes of any kind because it's not in a Danish municipality, it's under the direct administration of the MoD, who appoint the Christianso administrator.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cj-L5EcM169/

naturparkchristiansoe

Der er altså gang i Østersøregionen for tiden. I går fik vi besøg af besætningen fra skibet her, der patruljerer i området omkring øerne.

Likes

118

Instagram

Patrol Vessel "Freya" on October 21st.

Wikipedia:"The islands remain under the administration of the Ministry of Defence that employs 25-30 people for maintaining the civilian infrastructure, museum and historical buildings"

And it's total population is 89 or so.

[junior moat]

have they checked their storage on the island whether 2000kg Semtex is missing ? 😏

[sand delta]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CjYcxthjUAC/

A Danish Blackhawk landing on Christianso on (or a couple days before) the 6th October.

Suboptimally for us trying to disprove conspiracy theories, Christianso has an awful amount of Ministry of Defence ties lol.

Any mention of Christianso is going to bring a number of morons who go "look, the island is run by the MoD, hint hint"

Is she attractive tho? /s

We need our best misogynists on this case.

[tired monolith]

just use my 100% trusted guarantee method to determine and use it as source

[elfin cradle]

IRA is said to still have a few ton stored somewhere on Ireland.
And Libya got 1000 tons from Czechoslovakia. lol

[sand delta]

https://tenor.com/view/borat-borat-very-nice-verynice-thumbs-up-gif-25080066

[junior moat]

it'd be sooo epic if they just casually made some insta posts 🖼️

[elfin cradle]

Plus there must be a dude behind the camera, den they are a group of 6 ppl! 😛 /S

[true barn]

everything is attractive after a few days on a boat

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/erkperk/status/1634169560571019266

fwiw

The same account has this on September 20th.

Edited to hide this ladies identity

I'd suggest you edit the above pic/repost it without identifying stuff.

[true barn]

omg 🙈

[sand delta]

guys, stop.

[junior moat]

Elephanten seems to be some passenger ship on the island, so checks out they'd have some signs with her name lying around maybe

[sand delta]

Be very careful r.e. Rule 6.

[sand delta]

it is a public insta account. I deleted the screenshot. And the boat is obviously different. They are not suspects at this point. But maybe you'll find sth interesting in the backgrounds. Similar dates.

Remember there is dicks looking as this chat and we don't want people to get harassed

post the pictures but remove anything identifying

fwiw, they left a port in Poland on the 17th

[elfin cradle]

Post it where and say what?

[sand delta]

Just wanted to point out we're heavily suggesting if not explicitly saying that these people have some involvement.

if you go to far, it's defamation/libel, but the bigger issue is that this is a 15k size server, you don't want to let that big of a group off the leash

[pure vine]

first instinct is AFU but the ends of the crosses dont match

[true barn]

there’s some green in it

[deft crescent]

According to all the information that we and the media have found, these people had nothing to do with it - a different boat, different voyage dates, and different ports. I don't think it would be wise to continue to look into them, especially in a public server where anyone could be looking.

[sand delta]

(could we also go back and delete what was posted)

The screenshots yes. The instaccount doesnt need to be removed.

[true barn]

i‘m still a bit interested in this beautiful insignia

[velvet rain]

The mods will disagree with you there, I think.

[sand delta]

If they think it HAS to be deleted, they shall do it. I'm simply stating my opinion that from my perspective it doesn't have to be, because it is a public instagram account and I am not saying at all that they are somehow suspects.

[raw nexus]

delete it.

[junior moat]

did someone ask someone with access to Planet/Maxar for images from Christiansø or did we agree it was too cloudy ?

unlike 16th and 18th –-> 17th should be actually pretty okay if we can get an image from that day

[sand delta]

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/

[junior moat]

nah sentinel-2 is not good enough

10m resolution on sentinel-2

we need the <1m resolution of planet/maxar

this is Chrisiansø on Sentinel-2

that won't help us unfortunately 😄

on a sunny day looks like this

resolution insufficient

[sand delta]

ah damn

[hushed bay]

**Hello friends! Please do not post screenshots or links to people's social media accounts. It doesn't matter what your intention is. This thread is getting a ton of traffic and there's absolutely no reason to put innocent people who have nothing to do with this on blast.

If you notice anyone ignoring this request, please DM me or a server moderator.

Please and thank you!**

[sand delta]

Aye aye.

[true barn]

The boat we saw in some pictures - https://www.facebook.com/fundacjaCzarnyDiament/

[harsh rock]

Please have a read of the #rules if you haven't done so already..... in particular #6

Thanks

[sand delta]

Just for a quick clarification, an official account like the Christianso island one is fine right?

[hushed bay]

Yeah I think so, that's just a place right?

[harsh rock]

That should be fine.... personal social media accounts are a different matter

[hushed bay]

If it's a company/official place account, I think that's fine

What we want to avoid is having 400 people suddenly creeping on Suzy Smith's Instagram account because she happened to go on vacation there 5 years ago or whatever

[sand delta]

Aye aye.

[next dirge]

It’s reasonable to take care with companies too

But if they’re having a public profile etc ofc it’s far different

[sand delta]

"Yes, there is at least one webcam available for Christiansø island in Denmark. The webcam is located on the roof of the Christiansø Church and provides a live view of the harbor and surrounding area.

You can access the webcam by visiting the website of Christiansø Island (www.christiansoe.dk) and clicking on the "Webcam" link in the top menu. The webcam image is updated every 10 minutes, and you can also view a time-lapse video of the previous day's images.

Please note that the webcam may not always be operational due to weather conditions or other factors, and the quality of the image may vary depending on the time of day and weather conditions"

On the topic of GPT.

Is this just making stuff up?

I apologize for the confusion in my previous answer. After checking the website of Christiansø Island again, I was not able to find a direct link to the webcam.

However, I have found another website that provides a live webcam feed of Christiansø Island. The webcam is located at the harbor and offers a view of the island's surroundings.

You can access the webcam by visiting the following website: https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/danmark/hovedstaden/christiansoe.html

Please note that this is not the official webcam of Christiansø Island and it may not always be operational due to weather conditions or technical issues.

[pure finch]

AI chatbots are very confident spoofers.

[sand delta]

yea, it's just making things up

lol

[serene grove]

that's hilarious...pls no use chatgpt for research lmao

[pure finch]

A while back one was insisting to me that Ireland used patriot missiles, had a nuclear weapons program back in 1960's etc.

[serene grove]

funny that it lies, apologies for lying, then lies more

[hushed bay]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallucination_(artificial_intelligence)

[sand delta]

they're generative models. it's their nature to "make up stuff".

hallucination applies to ChatGPT just as much (moreso in this context) as any other ML model.

ah yea

[serene grove]

when it comes to open ended questions you can make it say just about anything you want

[distant olive]

Has anyone in the thread done any research on the polish company reportedly involved yet?

[sand delta]

Nope.

[hoary maple]

???

[hoary maple]

As in, the one originally reported?

[distant olive]

Yeah that’s the one

[sand delta]

We know it's apparently a Polish-registered company with two Ukrainian owners

Reportedly bankrolled by a formerly politically active Ukrainian businessman, whos birthday is September 26th.

[hoary maple]

Theres been research, I have no idea how far its gone

[sand delta]

Which is suggesting 🍫 boy.

[distant olive]

Yeah I know, just wanted to check if anyone had looked in to it

[sand delta]

They are hinting towards Poro.

[hoary maple]

ye, people hace

have

[stark palm]

How are they linking it to that company when it was paid in cash with fake IDs

[sand delta]

That's the weird thing, apparently the Polish company was in contact with Mola.

[stark palm]

While they at the same time have no idea who these people are

[distant olive]

I’ll rephrase, if any of the people who have done the research reads this, shoot me a dm. I have a couple of things i’d like to bounce around

[sand delta]

Maybe they had to pay a part in advance online?

Our suggestion from the start was the Polish company has to be a normal "middleman" company

[stark palm]

"Greetings Comrade, I am very Polish man who works for very Polish company which is owned by very real Ukrainians. Please let us rent boat to bomb NordStream. PS. We are not Russians. Attached are pictures of my two Bulgarian employees."

[sand delta]

Like a travel agent.

Because otherwise, yea, it makes very little sense.

That was our collective assumption around the 8-9-10th.

The other thing is that whilst there seems to be agreement behind the Polish company owned by two Ukrainians.

[sand delta]

Either you are suggesting that German intelligence is even more stupid than those comrades or it is lying (no hints for false flag) against Ukraine ?

The bankrollers don't match up.

One report is that it's a Ukrainian CEO of a Western European company,

The other is the "formerly politically active, born on Sep. 26th, Ukrainian businessman" suggestion.

The latter suggests totally not Poro, the first one could be anything, but it's not how you'd describe totally not Poro in any sense.

[sand delta]

The poro description was not stated regarding the Polish company or Western European, but as mastermind or sth

The reporting is that the Polish company received money from the Western European CEO/totally not Poro-person.

[sand delta]

I didnt get the last one? You are ironic, right? Can you link the article?

Remove the totally not part

[deft crescent]

"We went to Nord Stream to see it's famous 1.15 metre diameter pipeline"

[stark palm]

What they really went to Chrisitansø for

[distant olive]

German is a second, if not third language for me, but the SZ article does not imply that it was financed by the man who was born on 26. September, merely that his name was circulated.

Schon kurz nach dem Attentat auf die Pipelines soll unter skandinavischen Geheimdiensten die Information kursiert sein, dass die Sabotage möglicherweise nicht das Werk irgendeines Geheimdienstes war - sondern eine private Operation, durchgeführt von ehemaligen Militärangehörigen, in Auftrag gegeben und finanziert von einem ukrainischen Oligarchen.
Tl:dr the mission was carried out by ex military operators and financed by an oligarch.

Auch ein Name machte früh die Runde. Es handelt sich um einen sehr prominenten Geschäftsmann, der früher in der Politik aktiv war. Die Nord-Stream-Anschläge fanden am 26. September statt - seinem Geburtstag.
Tl:dr a name was also circulated…

[sand delta]

https://archive.is/fNHyc

But who could be behind the attack? The investigators only agree that there were probably no amateurs at work. Shortly after the assassination of the pipelines, information was said to have circulated among Scandinavian intelligence services that the sabotage may not have been the work of any intelligence agency - but a private operation carried out by former military personnel, commissioned and financed by a Ukrainian oligarch. A name also made the rounds early on. It is a very prominent businessman who used to be active in politics. The Nord Stream attacks took place on September 26 - his birthday.

[tidal knoll]

I think the second paragraph should be read as "there was even a name doing the rounds" - but I stand to be corrected by native speakers.

[hoary maple]

whats the dudes name?

the ukrainian oligarch

[distant olive]

Completely agree, it can be read either way

[sand delta]

The only person fitting the bill is Chocolate Boy.

[hoary maple]

who is?

[true barn]

So either it's poro, or the moderator of the newspaper's slack channel is pointing aggressively to #rules, in particular #6

[sand delta]

also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tPTj7twK-w

"when it comes out what I know it will be quite amusing"

[sand delta]

But where is the connection of the Western European company and the "26 September" guy? I cannot see it in this article.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teQ832xOeP0

there’s two companies involved in this plot: polish company (ua owners) rented the boat. they were presumably financially supported by another western european company which is being lead by a ukrainian

[distant olive]

Here you go

[hoary maple]

Welp, that original database is no help

from the looks of it

[sand delta]

- the Polish company which rented the boat according to the reports has two Ukrainian owners and got money from a western European company where the "Geschäftsführer" (CEO) is Ukrainian too

[sand delta]

no "Western European" in this paragraph

[hoary maple]

have we not found CCTV footage of that van?

[sand delta]

It's in the Kontraste report.

[sand delta]

No.

It's a white van.

It was described as a "Lieferwagen" tho

[hoary maple]

thats a good point..

[sand delta]

which means < 3.5 t

So yea, neither bankroller lines up.

Given the judicial element of the German reporting's sourcing

You'd imagine they've a person in mind.

[tired monolith]

Missed the chance to include a picture of Christo

[thick crag]

petro poroshenko 😛

[sand delta]

But given the wide expanse of what Western Europe means

and the total lack of specification (in the chocolate business, in the maritime business, in the energy business, etc)

We need more reporting.

They said "very prominent" and "formerly active in politics" and "birthday 26 September". There is no other option whom they meant (not meaning that it is true in the end)

[velvet rain]

Since I was just listening to this section of the report again: He says "im westlichen Europa", not "in Westeuropa".

"in western Europe" instead of "in Western Europe" I guess

[distant olive]

Well that’s a concept that’ll have varying definitions depending on who you ask haha

[true barn]

same same

NOT eastern europe

[tired monolith]

I listened to that, but I remain low confidence its anything from good sources (could still be amusing in itself though) - makes 0 sense these media figures are taunting that they know something but refuse to be the one breaking it

[sand delta]

there are no hard definitions, so it doesn't really make a difference. ambigious..

[velvet rain]

Exactly. It's even more ambiguous than Western Europe in general.

[sand delta]

for some people Germany is Western Europe, for others not (Middle Europe)

[velvet rain]

It could even be Western as in US-aligned

Endless possibilities

[distant olive]

That’s what I mean

[sand delta]

yeah often journalists hear sth from a supposed credible source and think they know everything (like Sy Hersh 😄 )

[rustic bay]

I'd like to add on to what Giancarlo is saying here in regards to example images, where you're showing a type of boat, etc. Please take care to be explicit that the boat pictured is an example and not a suspect, on the same line/post as the image, and ideally black out identifying information like a registration number and any faces

[deft crescent]

For anyone needing to block out faces, DFace is a really good tool! https://dface.app/

[sand delta]

Are we allowed make wild speculations about Chocolate boy because he’s prominent

Or must we treat him like a random citizen who we obviously wouldn’t dare start suggesting

[rustic bay]

Bellingcat has never been a wild speculation place, honestly

[sand delta]

no chocolate illegal

[rustic bay]

It makes me uncomfortable

[sand delta]

That’s fair.

aye aye ma’am, Roger

[rustic bay]

Like, everywhere else on the internet is fair game

[true barn]

this means the end of this operation. the case is too crazy to not speculate wildly

[sand delta]

I've watched it now. I could not find anything regarding the "26 September".

[velvet rain]

26th was Spiegel

[rustic bay]

I find speculating about a situation much less distasteful than about a person, for what it's worth

[true barn]

it was a joke, no worries.

[rustic bay]

I don't know anymore, after 8000 posts

[velvet rain]

Does anyone really?

[sand delta]

Süddeutsche, I think. But nevermind. Either I mis-read SaraNL or she corrected her statement (it is edited).

Following groups are reported, right? {Ocean's 6 with Bulgarian or Romanian fake passports} {Polish Company, 2 Ukrainian owners} {Western European company with Ukrainian owner} {very prominent Ukrainian businessman and formerly political active who has birthday on 26 September}

[sand delta]

Hmm?

[sand delta]

You never said, that there was reporting about a Western European company with Ukrainian businessman who has birthday on 26 September? Then I mis-read your original statement, my fault.

[boreal plover]

PIRA Semtex was decomissioned. (They didn't just have to say so, but convince the Unionists they'd really done so.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decommissioning_in_Northern_Ireland

[sand delta]

I think thats mixing the two reports.

[tidal knoll]

I don't know anymore, after 8000 posts Which is a good argument for keeping the jokes down from now on. If someone who has been following pretty closely is having trouble, imagine what someone looking in will think?

And that person could be anybody.

[sand delta]

The 26th thing is relating to the formerly politically active Scandinavian intelligence rumour on SZ.

[boreal plover]

yes, pardon my noise.

[sand delta]

The Western European Ukrainian CEO bankroller is the Spiegel/German reporting.

[sand delta]

But we don't know if Spiegel and Süddeutesche were referring to the same suggested person, right?

It basically can't be.

[distant olive]

Anyway, the whole reason for starting this conversation, is that there are a couple of companies that might be worth looking into.

Company A
Date of economic activity commencement
Registered 2022-09-01

Type of major activity [Polish Classification of Activities]
Retail sale of flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food in specialised stores

Company B
Date of economic activity commencement
2022-08-01

Date of suspension of individual business
2022-09-01

Type of major activity [Polish Classification of Activities]
Other building completion and finishing

Company C
Date of economic activity commencement
2022-06-02

Type of major activity [Polish Classification of Activities]
Mechanical working of metal elements

So why are these interesting?
All three companies are interesting because of the date of registration. Particulaly company B, which only existed for a month between August and September. Further, all three companies have Ukrainian directors.

Company A is further interesting given its listed activity, particularly fertilizers.

Company C is interesting because the director, who, it should be noted operates via proxy, shares the exact name of a former political and business ally of the former president of Ukraine. This former ally’s last known location was Belgium.

Fin.

[sand delta]

Now this is interesting.

[velvet rain]

I think since the news has slowed down quite a bit, we're also past the phase were people are here almost 24/7. So definitely a good point to take this a bit more seriously.

[sand delta]

can you share the link

fwiw, I think when it comes down to blaming suggesting any specific companies/people, we should be very careful.

[distant olive]

I can’t share a direct link unfortunately (the register does not allow this) and as the moderators have kindly reminded everyone, I’d be happy to share details in a dm for anyone who is considering spending actual time on researching the companies further

[sand delta]

That's why we are tracking specific boats all the time 🙂 tracking is not blaming / suggesting.

😏 Fair point.

[rustic bay]

Thanks Joe! Can you refer to this post
#1072947857654554624 message
and blur/remove the faces of these people? If you think the people are relevant you can DM an unredacted photo to Bellingcat staff

[boreal plover]

IIRC there was also that ambiguous phrase about a "calling card", which might tie-tie-in with the birthday. Assuming not Sims, chocolate etc

[sand delta]

When's this from?

[harsh rock]

Sept 2017 I think

[boreal plover]

I'd expect the alleged Ua business owner of Pl firm would be hidden behind shell companies and whatnot, if that really was the setup. If so, hard to trace through open sources. Edit ' owner, or CEO? Of course latter is public record,..

[sand delta]

Sept 2017. Only of relevance because of the visible code HST 311-199 which I don't think had been revealed as an identifier of the vessel as yet.

Oh cool

Suspect yacht:

Name: Andromeda
MMSI: 211597740
Callsign: DK7033
Homeport: Breege
Sportbootkennzeichen: HST (Hansestadt Stralsund) 311-199
Current Location: 54.596962, 13.231948

[elfin cradle]

Didnt a bunch of KSK guys were fired due neo-nazi issues recently?
There we have a group of people that can dive and use explosives...
However not a likley theory

https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/deutschland/interner-bundeswehr-bericht-13-000-schuss-munition-und-62-kilogramm-sprengstoff-bleiben-beim-ksk-verschwunden-a/

[sand delta]

I suppose KSM specifically.

[velvet rain]

We've been looking for that number for days!

Slightly disappointing though that it is not more visible.

[sand delta]

https://www.thelocal.dk/20230308/nord-stream-sabotage-linked-to-ukrainian-owned-yacht/

I think The Local have just smashed the story together, lol

[sand delta]

yeah delete

copying and translating, so often many errors happen 😄

I'll keep it 😉

And the birthday of the yacht is also the 26 September 😛

[velvet rain]

It's not been posted here before so it's definitely fine

[elfin cradle]

Huh, I have not seen these images earlier. But yeah, here is the diving gear you need (beside wetsuit), but rebreathers has often two or more smallers tanks due use of diffrent gases.

"Police officials determined that the men were not authorized to operate the boat and had not obtained permission to dive. According to Polish media reports, only one of the men had a Spanish passport, while the others offered only verbal identification.
Another wrinkle was their explanation: The men claimed to have been searching for amber."
Sounds like Salsbury church explanation.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poland-mystery-divers-gdansk-port-energy-oil-gas-infrastructure/

[velvet rain]

Fun fact: The Baltic region really has one of the world's largest known amber deposits.

[junior moat]

Chocolate-Gang practice session ?

[sand delta]

Connections uknown... Very recent article (1h old) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64971691 Though... "A Spanish [!] national of Russian origin, who was identified as an agent for Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU) was arrested in Przemysl, south-eastern Poland" , "Six people"

[elfin cradle]

I wonder if the rest of the group had bulgarian passports too and one was a female...

[limber hinge]

The idea that the yacht was rented by a company rather than a private party, or parties, is unusual. So is the time of year.
So despite my being very skeptical of rhe yacht as a diving platform, I am somewhat sure the yacht had some role in this plot.

I just don't know I w what that role is.

A secure comms link between the sub and leadership is still my best guess, but only a guess.

The yacht is able to get close to the site, and perhaps that allows them to connect securely with the sun? Then they can link or relay via satellite to leadership.

The yacht has facilities for the crew and adequate power via engine and a generator (assuming it has a generator.) And can allow them to stay "on scene" for protracted periods.

It is a lousy dive platform, what else could it be used for?

[sand delta]

I mean in the end GRU agents are lousy spies, so ... 😄

[carmine summit]

Could be entirely coincidental but a dive school from around kalingrad is in a former amber quarry https://demersus.ru/en/

[limber hinge]

RE: Weather

Bottom Line - wind was likely stronger, and maybe much stronger than we are assuming.

Someone above posted the Bornholm weather forecast in mid-September. The winds were predicted about 35 to 40km/hr.

However, wind attenuates very quickly around land and is often significantly stronger off shore. But Burbholm is a smallish island and the difference may not be all that great.

I have various wx apps (e.g. Windy) where I can evaluate this, to some degree, but none work in that region. That is why I was asking about weather bouy data.

If you recall there was also a screen shot of a TV report with wave heights indicating only 2 short periods where diving was practical. IIRC those wave heights were above what you would expect with 35 to 40km/hr winds.

My guess is that winds OFF SHORE were about 50% higher than at Burnholm. So 50 to 60km/hr.

[sand delta]

So taking the 18th of September for example:

2022-09-18 20:22:46 (LV) AREA: J
ZCZC JE25
181530 UTC SEP

BALTIC SEA WATHER FORECAST

NEAR GALE WARNING
CENTRAL BALTIC, NORTHERN BALTIC, SEA OF AALAND, SOUTHERN SEA OF BOTHNIA, NORTHERN SEA OF BOTHNIA, THE QUARK, BAY OF BOTHNIA.

WEATHER SUMMARY:
L CENTERED OVER FINLAND WKN AT THE SAME TIME AS L OVER W RUSSIA DPN.

FORECAST VALID 24 HOURS (WIND SCALE IN METERS PER SECOND)

SKAGERRAK AND KATTEGAT
N 5-10, TEMPO UP TO 12. MAINLY GOOD VIS.

LAKE VAENERN
N INCR 6-11. TOMORROW SOMEWHAT DECR. GOOD VIS.

THE SOUND
N OR VRB 2-7. TOMORROW AFTERNOON INCR 7-11. GOOD VIS.

THE BELTS AND WESTERN BALTIC
N 6-11. MAINLY GOOD VIS.

SOUTHERN BALTIC
N 5-10, TEMPO SOMEWHAT INCR. LOC SHWRS AND RISK OF THUNDER, TOMORROW GOOD VIS.

SOUTHEASTERN BALTIC
N-NW 3-8. OVERNIGHT SLWY INCR, TOMORROW GRADUALLY 8-13. LOC RAIN OR THUNDERSHWRS WITH POOR VIS.

CENTRAL BALTIC AND NORTHERN BALTIC AND GULF OF RIGA AND SEA OF AALAND
N-NW 4-9, INCR, OVTRNIGHT 8-13. TOMORROW AFTERNOON U_ TO 15. SHWTS WITH MOD-POOR VIS.

GULF OF FINLAND
W 3-7. Z
D
NGHT_N. TOMORROW MORNING INCR_ 8, -!534,99,=12. MAIMLY GOOD VIS, LOC SHWRO
_
ARCHI_KLAGO SEA
NW-N 4-9. TMORR_JUI_CO, -'
9,99, 8-2.7UHWRS_ NOR_HE_N SEA OF BOTHNIA AND THE QUARK_AND_BAY OF_BOTHNIA
N 8-13. _TEMPO 15. SHWRS WITH MOD-POOR VIS.
NNNN

Weird wind scale lol, why are they doing m/s lol.

5-10 m/s is about 9.5 - 20 kts.

[elfin cradle]

m/s is the most common here (Sweeden)

and is the international standard

[sand delta]

I'm not against metric, it's just using the Beaufort Scale is so much easier.

So we're talking about peaks of 35km/h

[sand delta]

The Wikipedia page is good, Beaufort, all units, sea conditions, land conditions and photos in one table https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

[sand delta]

35 km/h is a fresh breeze

so its approx this (at its strongest)

kinda crap for a small little boat I suppose

not perfect for diving but you can have nice sailing, I mean people are doing transatlantics with Andromeda like boats from time to time

[sand delta]

It's especially hard for me to see BF 5/6 as anything more than a light wind lol

[next lagoon]

To you and anyone else who wanted this level of input, I got someone who's open to answering questions. They're not comfortable joining ATM but if you have questions that are NOT easy to find answers on google or youtube vids etc, shoot and I'll forward them and give you the response.

Please do a pre-emptive search on the Q's though, don't want them to feel like they're wasting time answering things you could find as top search results

[sand delta]

The person is an expert on what topic?

[next lagoon]

They served on a SEAL team for a while

Expert level I don't think but they have that experience

[shy fulcrum]

NEAR GALE WARNING
CENTRAL BALTIC, NORTHERN BALTIC, SEA OF AALAND, SOUTHERN SEA OF BOTHNIA, NORTHERN SEA OF BOTHNIA, THE QUARK, BAY OF BOTHNIA. That was the relevant part of the weather report, geographically. 3 meter waves recorded - it's of course nothing if you are on a tanker, but in a smallish sailboat quite strenous. No rest for the wicked.

[sand delta]

I think this was overseen by many, another Polish crew sailing and mid September having a break on Christiansö. Arriving at Christianso around 11:20. To evaluate the sailing conditions

[shy fulcrum]

Exactly. They arrive at the end of the video. It's a joyride with an experienced crew, but not much else to do on that boat except sailing.

The boat looks very comparable to the andromeda, btw. (I checked, its a chartered Bavaria 44ft.)

Beaufort 6/Strong breeze - waves 3-4 meters.

[rustic bay]

Thanks for the video, can you add the link to it on YouTube?

[limber hinge]

OK, thanks for the reach out!
What I would really like to know is a couple of things.

FIRST set the conditions
You are on a recreational sailboat in the open ocean, seas are running 1 to 2 meters.
It took you a full day sailing to get here. You have 4 charges to set.
1 - will you use rewebreathers? Assuming yes, how much equipment do you need? Tanks tanks, catalyst, what ever?
2 - will you dive solo?
3 - all one dive or 2 dives per charge?
4 - how much rest between dives?
5 - the boatwas a charter and was not scratched, no nicks, nothing. Does that sound odd?
6 - how odd is it that there was explosive residue on the saloon table, did they bust a bag of charge?

[shy fulcrum]

Sure! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYr0dpSyLBk&t=709s

This was in mid-september '22 according to comments on youtube. So very relevant!

[limber hinge]

RE: Sailing in near gale

It is a blast IF you are ou for a day sail and not trying to beat into the wind. And that's wat long distance sailors do, they follow the wind. The boat is relatively stable, the sails moderating roll.

It is an entirely different story if you are trying to beat to windward, any forward speed is added to the True and you experience the Apparent wind

Wind power varies by the square; 20 knots has 4 times the energy of 20 knots, Huge difference

If Andromeda has divers down then she needs to be " on station" . One Diver said "pop a boutand the boat follows it while you decompress". Great, so Andromeda gets to wallow around in the seas pitching and rolling, that thin fin keel only works at speed, it's an airfoil section to provide lift. She wallows for 3 to 4 hours while finding the pipe, putting down a bpuy, launching the charge, then 2 hours with the Diver down, then retrieve the poor bugger.

Now do it all over again a few times for more charges. And this is a one dive per scenario.

Being on that boat, keeping position like that for hours would be miserable, exhausting, vomit comet. No sail, tiny keel, flat bottom, saloon has no decent sea berths, no hand holds. It would feel like an endless brawl.

If you could sail, or even motor, it would be so much better. Sails really stabilize a boat, but they hae to be in one place, that is tough. That's why so many people get picked off perfectly good boats, they can't take the punishment.

Frankly, that the boat was returned with minimum damage is a good indication they did NOT do this.

[sand delta]

Trying to understand this as a non-native.. They did not do what? Sailing against the wind during near gale conditions, or sailing at all during near gale conditions?

[limber hinge]

Sorry, not sailing at all while the dive is happening. At least.

There is more but to hard to explain.

[sand delta]

Yeah the most plausible diving scenario I read: Shotline and 2 divers out. Yacht sailing in the mean time. When divers are finished they call with some handheld device. GPS position is easy to store.

[limber hinge]

Good video. Wind looks to be in low 20's. They have a good angle of sail. That is as good as it gets.

Seas always look smaller in pictures. Now imagine heading straight into those waves, or just drifting with them hitting you on the side, and rolling 30+ degrees port and starboard.

Hell people are complaining in this harbor with a 1/2 foot swell, on a mooring.

[limber hinge]

I would be very surprised if the yacht sailed off with divers down.

Even the he man macho Diver in the interview above said to dump the bouy weight and hang on the line for decompression WHILE THE BOAT FOLLOWS THE BOUY.

The FIRST rule in a Man Overboard is Don't take eyes off the person. I know it sounds silly but finding even a bouy can be very tough. Fishermen do it, but with lots of practice.

[sand delta]

I mean not staying on one point, but of course staying kind of close, circling / crossing in the area..

[limber hinge]

Just to add. Suppose the Diver had to abort the dive. He comes up early, but the boat is now some miles away. He then contacts the boat and it comes back.

Meantime the diver is on the surface and that is a tough place to be. He has to hold onto the bouy so he can be found. That would be tough.

Some damn fool may do it, but he is a damn fool.

[sand delta]

He has a suit and a rebreather, what is the problem

and the boat does not have to leave more than a few miles, why should it.

[shy fulcrum]

Yeah, if your task for the day was to go against the wind and hit a pipeline 80 meters down below, it would be a tall order.

[limber hinge]

OK, but that is not sailing. Sailing small triangles say, would mean constantly having to adjust sails. Port tack up, the Starboard tack, then run down wind. You really don't want to be putting the sails up and down.

Could you do it? Sure, but exhausting and tough on gear.

Better to just motor, head into wind, just trying to keep close to bouy.

But maybe they put an AIS on bouy so it can be found?

I am sure others will have different opinions. This is just mine from my experiences.

[sand delta]

Why would they use AIS? They don't want others to see their position. The crew would just store the position on their devices and good.

[limber hinge]

Here is a video, sailing into (bashing) 20 knots. First 1/3 is all you need to watch.

My Wife and I have done this trip 2x in the past year.

It will help with perspective.

https://youtu.be/aK5sUOiMj9Y

[limber hinge]

According to the super pro Diver interview the bouy will be drifting with the Diver holding on. So it will be moving.

Otherwise no, you don't need it. Sooo many variales.

[limber hinge]

Yes, and he has to stay attached to the bouy while the waves are washing over him. The boat coming back is making maybe 5 knots at very best, so he is having on for a half hour, maybe more.

If there are 2 then they are banging into one another.

Go to the beach and try to float in the breaking waves for a half hour, not touching bottom ever. Now do it in cold water with 20 -30 pounds of gear on.

Now do it again for 3 more days.

[rustic bay]

@limber hinge I was thinking about this thread and I remembered how you made one post and said you probably wouldn't keep up. I'm glad you did!

[limber hinge]

Thanks

[serene grove]

is there some way we could maybe check similar vessels for "explosives residue"? there was a time when people would test cash for "drug residue" and be like omg proof of drugs when the reality was 75% of circulating paper notes have some level of drug contamination (I mean, this was in LA lmao, but you get my point)

as far as the question about "why is this charter boat not scratched up at all?" I'd put that down to it being in an area with pretty bad weather a lot of the time: so you've got a combination of pretty hardcore folks who are there for technical sailing experience (this is not a frat boy party boat rental lmao), and the fact that it's going to be getting more maintenance than if it were in more mild conditions so any damage will get painted/patched pretty quickly

[nimble gull]

You know when you go through airport security and get selected for a “random scan”? They swipe your phone, belt buckle, laptop, etc with a little swap and run it in a machine? That’s checking (as far as I know) for explosives residue. So in my mind, it’s not like there’s a big stain of Semtex left on the table. It could be invisible and still be picked up by chemical analysis. But this is very much my non-expert opinion - I just fly a lot. 😉

[serene grove]

I have learned more about sailing in the baltic since joining this channel than I ever thought I would care about knowing lmao

yeah those are little mass spectrometry machines I believe

they can be effective if used correctly but I have no idea how close you would have to be to the source of contamination for them to pick stuff up

I always freak out going through those checkpoints because I do lots of fun fun chemical experiments and wonder if I accidentally made something that will trip the test

which is kinda what got me thinking about this...what if they were just making meth or something

[nimble gull]

Yeah I have no clue, but just assuming that it can pick up “the scent” of something from your belt buckle, I assume the divers could have cleaned that boat really well but there would still be some chemical residue

[serene grove]

(obviously a sailboat is a horrible platform for a walter white mobile but you catch my drift I hope)

heck it could have been fireworks

unless they said which explosive exactly they found

[nimble gull]

Then again, airport security is a bit of a charade, right? So it could all be for show.

[serene grove]

like what if I just bought a new houseplant and threw some ammonium nitrate fertilizer on there and brought it on the boat and put it on the table

overwater it, it leaks, boom now the table tests positive for fertilizer bomb

[shy fulcrum]

The Baltic is not known for its bad weather or extreme conditions - crossing the North sea would be more hardcore, for instance. So there are crossings in small sailboats all the time, especially in the summer. But september would be a time with a lot more windy and rough conditions, which is great if you want to do serious sailing - but not so much if you intend to do sabotage with deep dives.

[serene grove]

there's probably a decent amount of weapons trafficking in this region right? so it could have been a previous charter even

I wanna check a bunch of similar boats in the same region and see if there are others

probably no way in hell that's going to happen tho :/

[true barn]

that‘s the weird thing, they apparently didn’t clean the boat very well, or at all. just search this channel, it was mentioned before.

even though it was part of Mola‘s policy/their contract to give it back clean

and yes, I agree with you about the situation. It would probably be rather hard to get completely rid of any residue. I‘ve been checked multiple times at the airport as well, and it‘s like a 15 seconds procedure.

[shy fulcrum]

So I asked the captain of this polish crew - whose Bavaria 44 sailed from Sassnitz (Close to Rostock) - Bornholm - Christiansø in mid september if they ever saw Andromeda. He had obviously been asked by other "detectives" - and his answer was a flat no. Note that their route is very similar to what the Andromeda would take, if the area around Bornholm/Christiansø was en route. These guys were in Christiansø on September 14 - so the rough weather at the end of video may be from September 15, when they sail from Christiansø towards Bornholm. Danish police asked around Christiansø for a boat that was berthed there Sept 16-18. If so, the Andromeda would have crossed paths with the poles on its way to Christiansø. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYr0dpSyLBk&t=709s

[shy fulcrum]

If nothing else, it's a virtual ride onboard the Andromeda crossing the pipelines having fun!

[elfin cradle]

Yes, the most common are the ITEMISER(TM) series of machines.
Expensive as hell

But there are cheaper like quick swab, this kit cost like 1k new, so its a good price

https://www.ebay.com/itm/304746578315?epid=1494017083

[serene grove]

if this whole thing is based on one of those swab kits and nothing else I'm going to feel stupid tbh

[elfin cradle]

there are surly some way you can rent a bomb dog, as there is alway some retired. But then you would have hard to specifiy

[elfin cradle]

No, th swab at air ports are basically a GCMS

[serene grove]

I would personally want to send stuff off for HPLC

yeah no I meant the swab thing you linked on ebay

that's just a reagent test

it literally says on it "LEGAL FERTILIZERS" if you zoom in...a houseplant could set this off

[elfin cradle]

Basically, nothing differs from the ammonium nitrate in a fertiliser than in a bomb. But if you use the other test for RDX

that isnt as common

[serene grove]

yeah if it tested positive for RDX, that doesn't happen by accident

[elfin cradle]

Well, if you are not a german camping person...

[serene grove]

oh god what

[elfin cradle]

Esbit Solid Fuel is "Camping solid fuel tablets" they are made of Hexamine.

Hexamine can sometimes show up as RDX on quick-test.

[serene grove]

oh interesting

I was gonna say pls do not use RDX in camping fuel it will not go well

I don't care what you stabilize it with, any issue with manufacturing quality control and you're gonna end up like robocop (ugh wait no it wasn't robocop, what was the movie with the exploding cigarette?)

[elfin cradle]

That is why soldiers used C4 in vietnam for cooking. Burns very good without producing smoke.

[serene grove]

ooooooh I wouldn't

I'm sure it's fine but if anyone starts cutting corners you're gonna have an issue

anyway we don't even know what they tested positive for, let alone the test method, as far as I know

[elfin cradle]

If they started to swap the boat for explosivs from the start they must have been tipsed off, if they just found a sus boat by them selfs, they would use a dog and then swap whatever the dog found.

[shy fulcrum]

Hexamine.. Are we looking at 2013 Ghouta evidence again? Did anyone else here take part in that investigation?

[elfin cradle]

Sadly I was at the OPCW first in 2019.

[shy fulcrum]

You worked there?

[elfin cradle]

Internship as Junior Science Policy Adviser

[shy fulcrum]

Ok! I was thinking about the Osint-investigation - that kicked off Bellingcat, or Bellingcat was its offspring.

[elfin cradle]

But in Ghouta the team had tools in field that could make differences in RDX and hexamine. Portable expensive spectrometers. When I was at the OPCW we looked into putting equipment on drones as the IAEA does.

[velvet rain]

Just dropping this here: https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/78701/does-it-make-sense-from-a-pro-ukrainian-perspective-to-sabotage-nord-stream

[next lagoon]

Not a fan of this, especially because so many comments rest on "well if it was exposed"

That is one of the biggest issues with any covert operation

Once it goes overt the blowback is generally pretty severe in the target nations and can be pretty severe in the host nation too depending on context

As we have thousands of years of history to show, that itself does not actually make it any less likely to happen

Especially from independent actors who are less capable of making accurate assessments towards the risks

[serene grove]

also consumer tech with dual-use applications is cheaper and cheaper every year

really widens the pool of people who can fund something like this

[sand delta]

But wouldn’t it also be worth proposing that the damage to such goodwill towards Ukraine due to the Nordstream destruction could also be being greatly overstated.

Even if you give some credit to Nordstream 1 and 2, it’s very hard to see it as anything other than providing yet another energy based lever of blackmail for Russia over Europe. The entire point of it skipping past Eastern Europe and ultimately make them more vulnerable to Russian energy blackmail/hybrid warfare, and also reducing Russia’s need to pay transit fees to said countries.

Yet, due to Germany’s gross corruption and state capture (Schröder, et al) spurred on to an extent by symptoms of the same issue in Austria (Kneissl, Ibiza-Affäre, et al), Russia with the willing accomplice of such states, was able to ram Nord Stream down the throats of Europe.

[next lagoon]

Oh yeah definitely

Blowback tends to bring harm anyways but to what extent is hard to assess for a bunch of factors

[sand delta]

With maybe the exception of Orbán, Eastern Europe truly could not give a shit if someone did this, it gets rid of a lever of Russian control over them, one that they’d never have been able to remove by politely asking Germany to “maybe please not do it please sir.”

Not saying it’s the same issue, but look at all the dithering in Germany over sending a couple tanks/allowing others to send their state property that they paid for.

[next lagoon]

For example w/ governments, a lot of nations govts may be hesitant to respond at all publicly because, well, they do it too and it just allows adversaries to pump up hypocrite claims

[sand delta]

The Americans are very clearly more than happy to see it gone, the British are too.

So at worst you annoy some Germans, I don’t think annoying the nation of total pacifists (buying naval warships with the stated goal being to be a “humanitarian ship”) is really going to matter too much.

Germany has shown itself to be very clearly a very unreliable ally in this regard, say what you want about Turkey or Hungary, the German government is utterly corrupted too.

[next lagoon]

I only raised it because all the comments there rest on "well it could be exposed", all can, doesn't mean it will, and if you assess that as a risk there are a culmination of factors that could still lead you to proceed with the op. Every semi- or fully professional covert action generally includes risk assessments over exactly that and what the possible results are.

[next lagoon]

And on this I wouldn't be too sure

USIC/MIL and Ukrainian counterparts have rubbed heads a few times about Ukraines covert activities

That's very likely the reason you see US constantly coming out and connecting them back to "known actors" that are claimed not to be working with Ukraine

It's a warning

Tho done in a way that doesn't really damage the relationship

[sand delta]

The Dugina stuff was/is related to the fear that it wasn’t worth the risk of creating a precedent that allows Russia to assassinate (likely higher ranking) Ukrainian politicians, over someone who (albeit a disgusting human being), isn’t a high value target.

[next lagoon]

But yeah resting the point on "well if it was exposed it could do harm so why would they do it?" is really dumb because every covert action runs that risk to some varying extent

Alas they still happen