Nord Stream Pipeline

[velvet rain]

The more exotic the better

[sand delta]

Lissy III

Suzi Sorgolos

Hera

Off the top of my head

[velvet rain]

The Lissy III has the callsign DJ3895

So we know now that Mola don't register their yachts as a rule

That makes DOUY a lot less likely.

[sand delta]

Question

I know German ships have to start with D

But D is split between a couple countries

Germany is DA-DR

[velvet rain]

If we ignore the old East German callsigns, yes.

[sand delta]

And South Korea and Phillipines take the other ones DS-DZ

Is there a rhyme or reason why it might be a specific letter

DR = Rostock perhaps

DB = Berlin

[velvet rain]

I thought about that

[sand delta]

Just throwing stuff at a wall here

[velvet rain]

There's only one other DJ in the list of candidates

[sand delta]

Lissy III is a Bavaria 51 though

[velvet rain]

Okay, that is really weird.

[sand delta]

If we found Andromeda’s sister ship, they might have been registered for MMSI at the same time

[velvet rain]

Because then the Lissy III should have a four-letter callsign.

The rules are pretty clear about that.

Nevermind, I'm just too dumb to read the datasheet 😄

Bavaria Cruiser 51 is also 14.99m

[sand delta]

Super odd that a German yacht maker is naming their boat in feet

[velvet rain]

Aren't European ship traditions in large parts pre-metric?

[sand delta]

Fathoms, nautical miles, shackles, yea.

A fathom is a “grown man’s wingspan”

[velvet rain]

A very reasonable way to measure things

[sand delta]

A nautical mile is the length subtended by one minute of arc of latitude at the equator.

[velvet rain]

Wait a minute

[sand delta]

Shackles are 27,5 metres of anchor chain, but actually it comes from 90 feet or 15 fathoms.

[velvet rain]

Assuming the Andromeda is registered...

Would she actually be registered in Rostock?

Might be Breege

[sand delta]

Is Breege in Rostock’s lander?

tbh, gun to my head, I dunno what lander Rostock is in.

Yea, both in Mecklenburg Vorpommen.

[velvet rain]

Okay, so it wouldn't matter which of the two ports the Andromeda actually belongs to.

[sand delta]

Hold on

https://www.deutsche-flagge.de/en/german-flag/types-of-ships/recreational-craft

In contrast, owners and operators of hired out recreational craft and of commercially used recreational craft have to meet much stricter safety provisions and require a certificate from a German authority for the recreational craft under German flag.

In our chart "Recreational craft ("Sportboote") under German flag in maritime waters", we provide an overview for you about which rules apply for which kind of recreational craft. Below you can find information about recreational craft under German flag in German and foreign maritime waters.

I assume Mola’s charters count as commercial use.

[velvet rain]

Yeah, Bootszeugnis and Seeschiffsregister are different things though.

Never underestimate the German ability to invent bureaucracy.

[sand delta]

Almost kafkaesque.

[velvet rain]

But they need to have a "Kennzeichen", apparently.

Which appears to be yet another identifier for a boat?

[velvet rain]

You can read all about how this process works in the Binnenschifffahrt-Sportbootvermietungsverordnung 😄

I'm not joking, that's the actual name of the law.

[pine umbra]

The German magic of taking two whole sentences and smashing them together into one word 👍

[velvet rain]

I'm slightly disappointed by the dash in the middle tbh

Dumbing down our beautiful language

[summer vine]

Friends call it BinSchSportbootVermV

[sand delta]

As long as the Bundesamt für Ausrüstung, Informationstechnik und Nutzung der Bundeswehr doesn’t get involved.

BAAINBw!

[pine umbra]

As soon as they get involved it gets messy anyways

I think it was them who spent like 100 million € on rebuilding a sailing ship for our navy

[sand delta]

As you do.

All our ministries in the Netherlands have short names.

[pine umbra]

"HIL"

[sand delta]

MinBZ, MinAZ, MinFIN, MinJ&V

MinDef, or just “Defensie”

[summer vine]

https://www.hilgmbh.de/

[velvet rain]

I'm always disappointed by those guys. When I hear the words "Beschaffungswesen", I think of a mythical creature, yet it is only more bureaucracy.

Not sure how well that one translates 😄

[tired monolith]

seems like a coverup not to get ridiculed for the gibberish language 😉

[sand delta]

We could have owned half of NRW

Mind your tongue, Duitser.

[velvet rain]

I mean, you still could, if you put in the effort.

[pine umbra]

you'd even get a majority in the rest of Germany for the annexation I believe

[sand delta]

[velvet rain]

You guys could use the solid land

[sand delta]

We still kept your mountain

Suck it.

[pure vine]

nope, there should be a requirement of rest (but wouldnt be on recreational dive tables)

[sand delta]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duivelsberg

Wikipedia is hateful.

It’s a mountain.

[pine umbra]

"mountain"

[sand delta]

A nice 80 metres above sea level.

Need an oxygen tank for that.

[pine umbra]

wait thats the same difference to sea level that Nordstream has at the point of explosion

[whole thunder]

what's wrong with me, that i can read all that xD ok 95%

[pure vine]

does this mean the dutch blew up nordstream?

[sand delta]

It left from Rotterdam…

[pure vine]

listen

[velvet rain]

I guess that would be a mountain from your perspective

[pure vine]

all we have to do is search for evidence that it was dutch divers

check for albert heijn bonus cards

[sand delta]

So we swap the Sims 3 (Russian) and Roshen chocolate (Poro) for something like Gouda cheese or something?

[tired monolith]

the trend is to pay or plant it on someone with a following then you have all the proof you need to sell the story in social media, right?

[sand delta]

Or that

[pure vine]

oh no its easier we just look for a tikkie for explosives and a sailboat rental

[pine umbra]

never underestimate what the Dutch can do

[sand delta]

Trots Op Bomber

[velvet rain]

Getting rid of a monarchy clearly isn't one of those things.

[pure vine]

listen

[sand delta]

We also couldn't get rid of your monarchy.

[pure vine]

unless there's a tikkie for the operation and oddly tight pants

it wasnt the dutch

[pine umbra]

did that ourselves kinda

[vocal violet]

The MJ came from Rotterdam before it drifted over the NS explosion sites, I'm just saying...

[velvet rain]

All of German history in one sentence

[sand delta]

The funniest element of WW2 is that King Wilhelm spent the first 2 years of it under SS guard in Huis Doorn.

Well he actually spent 1920 - 1941 there, but he died under Nazi occupation lol.

"On 10 May 1940, Germany invaded the Netherlands. Wilhelm had been offered asylum in Great Britain, however he refused to take up the offer. On 14 May, the Wehrmacht arrived at Huis Doorn, however Wilhelm and his household would remain undisturbed. German officers were forbidden to enter his estate, and Wilhelm would remain under guard in his estate during the occupation."

Now we are getting way off topic though.

[sand delta]

And what else is based in the Netherlands...

Bellingcat.

[velvet rain]

based

Anyway, I guess if we had some good photos of Andromeda, we could see her Sportbootkennzeichen number.

[elfin cradle]

We know that a shaped charge can do this. Just look how one NLAW with just 1.8kg explosives can penetrate more than 500mm of steel.
But there is no evidence of a shaped charge. All evidence points more at a larger but more spread out blast. The energy isnt concentrated in a place but rather along the pipe, that is why part of the pipe has been pushed down into the mud and another one thrown 50-100m away.

[sand delta]

@stark palm we need your guy

[sand delta]

Didn't Sweden confirm it removed a portion of the pipeline for investigation?

[velvet rain]

Photos of all markings would be ideal

[elfin cradle]

Yes, but only small parts.

[velvet rain]

He should bring a good camera and a telephoto-ish lens if in any way possible

Then photographing it from the neighbouring plots of land would be less of an issue.

Photos from all sides would also make it easier to identify the ship in tourist photos.

[sand delta]

100%

[sand delta]

Ah.

[tired monolith]

if the other identical boat is stored there too it could be helpful to the overall picture with name and other details obviously

[raw nexus]

I looked at the Breege but didn't find a pattern

[raw nexus]

We should do that again with the day shift here

[velvet rain]

What do you mean?

No idea if it's been posted before but I just found a good picture of the Mola berths from August 2022.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Yachthafenresidenz+Hohe+Düne+Hotel/@54.1797667,12.0984307,3a,75y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipNdN6Jq3lX3t8inzyLQaNacpTv7yyPn5-_Ip53h!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNdN6Jq3lX3t8inzyLQaNacpTv7yyPn5-_Ip53h%3Dw203-h152-k-no!7i5792!8i4344!4m11!3m10!1s0x47acf89c55614733:0xcf360ab4ce50eb3f!5m2!4m1!1i2!8m2!3d54.1793447!4d12.0987822!14m1!1BCgIYEw!16s%2Fg%2F1vkxl988

[sand delta]

No it hasn't, good find:

Where is the webcam exactly? I dont get it comparing with https://www.google.de/maps/@54.6218674,13.284549,3a,84.9y,279.56h,79.91t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipMgFcZ9Sn1qJ3h-Fp5J0qp_LzC_CuEVH2LkgDB7!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipMgFcZ9Sn1qJ3h-Fp5J0qp_LzC_CuEVH2LkgDB7%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi0-ya346.7026-ro-0-fo100!7i8704!8i4352

[velvet rain]

Wait a minute, I already located the webcam a few days ago.

https://goo.gl/maps/QmQ2xa9D9TuMHbLJ9

It's attached to this house

[sand delta]

"This webcam is located at the Villa Meeresblick in Wiek on the island of Rügen. She is showing you live images of this former fishing and seafaring town in the north of the island. You can see, among other things, the kite and surf spot Wiek , Wieker Hafen or parts of the opposite coast."

[velvet rain]

Most likely here

[sand delta]

Nice.

Hold on, so that camera is actually capturing Dranske?

[velvet rain]

You're right, that should be Dranske in the distance.

[carmine summit]

So I think the Sportbootkennzeichen Number is HST 311-124 which apparently is https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schiffskennzeichen Stralsund which makes some sense. I saw this from the yacht.de vid. 0:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by3HCopNOP0&t=46s

[velvet rain]

Good find! Sure it's our boat?

[pine umbra]

HST = Hansestadt Stralsund yep

[velvet rain]

If someone can double check that this is indeed our ship (or the other Bavaria Cruiser 50), we should add that to the list of findings.

Actually, on second thought, that is useful even if it is one of the other Mola boats.

[sand delta]

HST 311-13

[carmine summit]

Its not 100% as there don't appear to be other markings in the same shot but considering the continuity of the vid it looks like it makes sense.

[sand delta]

Could all Mola's boats be HST-311-something

[velvet rain]

Is that (0:58) a VHF antenna?

[sand delta]

The Raymarine thing?

[velvet rain]

That one is the Verdi

[velvet rain]

Yep

[carmine summit]

https://www.yacht.de/special/crime/nordstream-sabotage-mit-der-segelyacht-zur-pipeline-sprengung/ This is a Cruiser 46 HST 311-299 "Wallburga" visually mentioned in the article about the andromeda but not the actual boat

[velvet rain]

We should start a list of Mola boats

[sand delta]

looks like GPS

Or radar.

could be that also yes

[carmine summit]

I think thats a radar.

[whole thunder]

At first I thought GPS as well. But it's pretty big for an GPS antenna

[sand delta]

https://rm.factoryoutletstore.com/cat/20237-63978/Raymarine-Digital-Radome-Antennas.html

[velvet rain]

Could someone who knows more about all the relevant columns maybe create a spreadsheet or something like that?

[sand delta]

Name, Homeport, HST number, MMSI

[whole thunder]

Weird place to mount a radar, less then 50cm next to the one steering the boat.
Someone doesn't wanna have kids

[sand delta]

It may may may

be a 4G/3G range extender.

[velvet rain]

Honestly, I just don't want to be the one to create the Google Doc for privacy reasons 🫣

[sand delta]

Same tbh

It's probably the radar though, yea

[velvet rain]

Maybe @vocal violet or @magic niche could add a list to the overview document.

[sand delta]

https://www.hf-latte-berlin.de/author/ordensmeister/

[restive kelp]

Five people and woman?

[sand delta]

Berlin student society rented the boat in 2021.

And young people are terminally online

(a bit like us :P)

[velvet rain]

That explains a lot about the second picture.

[sand delta]

I deleted that one 😛

[carmine summit]

The radome on the Andromeda is a Garmin one right ? at least in 2015.

[velvet rain]

You think we could sell those picture to a newspaper as photos of the perpetrators?

[pine umbra]

BILD would buy 100%

[velvet rain]

You think we'd get enough money to charter the Andromeda?

[sand delta]

Out of respect for their privacy, I'll delete the pictures from the server, obviously still accessible through that link.

[vocal violet]

Aye, I can do that, but you need to explain me what exactly, I have lost a bit of the track of the conversation since midday

[velvet rain]

We want to create a list of all Mola ships but nobody wants to be the one to create the Google Doc/Sheet 😄

[sand delta]

lol

fwiw, whatever it is on the Andromeda doesn't seem to be removed.

[vocal violet]

When did I sign to join a sweatshop?

[pine umbra]

April 20th 2022 according to your profile

[vocal violet]

Rekt

[sand delta]

If they removed anything, it was probably the GPS.

Not sure if you can search previous tracks with it though.

[vocal violet]

I mean, I'm down to help around, but what's exactly what you want: a database of Mola's ships?

[velvet rain]

More like unpaid babysitter for a bunch of pathologically paranoid online weirdos.

[sand delta]

Mola is going to be the most OSINTed small to medium sized German business.

[vocal violet]

That would be the mods, not me 😛

[sand delta]

Poor guys, all they did was possibly rent their yacht to the people who did it

[vocal violet]

Assuming they actually did it, even lol

[carmine summit]

this is from the yacht.de article I linked above part of the gallery so can't link directly.

[sand delta]

so definitely the same boat

WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/investigators-puzzle-over-yachts-possible-role-in-nord-stream-blast-26012a47

One thing I've spotted though

on the RND article

(or well not actually in it it seems, but if you search it in google images)

there doesnt seem to be a HST code

Actually one other thing to mention

This does not seem to be a view from Dranske.

where could that building behind the right most leg be

so where the hell is this

[raw nexus]

That's Karl Liebknecht Str 1?

[sand delta]

That's Mola's Dranske site.

on Google Earth.

the WSJ does say Rugen, so I'm checking Breege

I might have it.

Yes!

I have it.

54°35'48.7"N 13°13'53.3"E

It's not in a Mola site.

https://www.google.de/maps/@54.5969469,13.232251,3a,75y,264.19h,81.64t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOn_OB0jcz3urGPjKX48wiwi6RJ1JattC6UA_GD!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOn_OB0jcz3urGPjKX48wiwi6RJ1JattC6UA_GD%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-4.9189487-ya155.22612-ro-6.089674-fo100!7i5376!8i2688

It's in a possibly military site...

"Am alten Militärhafen"

But yea, definitely there right?

yes

@stark palm Found where Andromeda is, it's not in the Mola facility, just fyi.

[raw nexus]

Yes, jackpot

[sand delta]

Woohoo.

archiving it here just in case.

It seems completely open to the public, just out of the way

[tired monolith]

national park it seems, old military area indeed with an old ww2 airstrip also

[sand delta]

Oliver's guy should have no issue going there so, unlike walking onto Mola property in Dranske.

[limber hinge]

SaraNL
FWIW, I just did a survey of the harbor, 55 sail boats, 13 have radar reflectors. Very international community. Right now largest contingent is German.

[sand delta]

54.61207°,13.22856° Apple Maps. the road to that place seems to be private though, or is there another one? Btw: Apple Maps has a very wide street view cover (in contrast to Google Streetview. Unfortunately only on Apple devices usable)

Hmm, interesting.

[true barn]

was about to post the same

[sand delta]

So the guy might have made his own private island by restricting access.

Oh on Google 2016 https://www.google.de/maps/@54.6132628,13.2281047,3a,75y,165.64h,110.38t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipMaw8iP1v7SZxPHAgU56QQL5cXngRNEJeoxYo5n!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipMaw8iP1v7SZxPHAgU56QQL5cXngRNEJeoxYo5n%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya341.92783-ro-0-fo100!7i8704!8i4352

[raw nexus]

The bug was closed til a few years ago. Around 2016

[sand delta]

The top sign is for an electrical installation?

[sand delta]

demolition work

[junior moat]

just let the guy bring a drone and fly it over the water towards Andromeda, no need to break in there 😉

[sand delta]

Lost places tour of the regarding peninsula https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWR_ZkHQdIQ

Jesus, never underestimate this chat to find stuff ridiculously quickly lol

[true barn]

brave new world, everything is in a video

[limber hinge]

I started a spread sheet of what gear is required just for the dives.

Lots of SWAG here.

I assumed 2 very aggressive divers with supplies to make 12 dives total. 2 for each of 4 sites and 4 incase they need to.

[sand delta]

also remember people

[vocal violet]

Great job with the geolocation, I'll add it to the summary in a bit

[sand delta]

5 "big people" #havetobemale, 1 "petite person" #hastobefemale

[limber hinge]

Separate notes

[sand delta]

ah gotcha

[tired monolith]

seems like the military could have cleaned up better after itself

[sand delta]

Love the subtle sexism that because someone is small, they have to be female, and because they are female, they have to be the medic. (not from you guys btw, this is apparently the thought process of the investigators)

At this point they might as well say she was wearing a sexy nurse costume.

[junior moat]

well except stuff that is 80m below surface in the Baltic 😉

[limber hinge]

Andromeda -
mission assumptions

6 person crew
Assume
Capt
1st mate
2 AB deck hands
2 divers
So that is 4 watch standers

Mission to plant explosives at 4 locations
200kg/site

Diver gear - 2 each for 6 dives each - spare allowance

dry suit
Dive kit - fins, mask, etc
Weights
BCD

Dive related/site x 4
200kg explosive
Container for handling in water, weighted? Could be knock down, fabric
Buoyancy bag with cylinder

Dive related/Dive - provisions for 12 dives
1 O2 cylinder

Common for all dives
80 meter down line with bouy
Crane to handle explosive? Just pitch into explosive container

79 gallons of fuel, 75HP motor, 1-1/2 gallons/hour (running at about 1,800rpm, slow cruise)
148 gallons of water

2 dives a day, 1 site a day, 4 days on station
96 hours

[raw nexus]

https://youtu.be/G6Uen-8HB94

Starts at the gate

[sand delta]

Certainly doable

@vocal violet #1072947857654554624 message

[limber hinge]

RE: holding tanks are required but the ability for overboard discharge is allowed. So no need to pull into a marina to dump.

[sand delta]

you just need to be a bit out to sea

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT95zEg17ao

[junior moat]

quite beautiful actually

[sand delta]

So I think that sign means nothing

The building seems derelict

And the amount of people taking pictures walking around it too

[limber hinge]

They are light on fuel unless very conservative. They need a captain who can hove to (not easy with that boat) so as to moderate drift.

More likely thru will have to take fuel just before the dive mission. Then right after.
But it could have even broken into 2 mission.

6 people is a lot on that boat, even 1 week at sea might get difficult emotionally. Most people would find this difficult for a variety of reasons. Hand just hanging around is NOT comfortable, generally wears on people.

Not impossible, but you need the right crew.

[sand delta]

It is a SAILING boat 🙂

[raw nexus]

I think we all agree that there are too many nos in this story so far

[sand delta]

https://youtu.be/LzeWUVdm82g Video from the Bug, from 2nd September 2022.

https://youtu.be/SbzpEEPKvjQ

Hold on

Are they turning the Bug into a “eco resort”?

[raw nexus]

My family is hungry. Don't dox the crew without me. Out.

[limber hinge]

Yes, I live on one.

[sand delta]

https://youtu.be/U65ZpI0n_QI

Dude goes there and gets the police called on him

[true barn]

need to run generator for several hours a day to charge batteries as well. at least that‘s what you do when avoiding motor due to fuel limitations

[sand delta]

https://youtu.be/xRkUClfFixA

The history of where it’s being stored is a bit mad lol.

[junior moat]

ahh the 90s .. good times

[sand delta]

Do we know for sure that they did not have solar / wind connected to the battery?

Hold on

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/nord-stream-anschlag-schiff-andromeda-steht-aufgebockt-auf-ehemaligem-militaergelaende-a-52203bf0-2bf0-4996-b034-5ff0ce849fe4

Spiegel you bastards!

This was reported 5 hours ago

According to SPIEGEL research, the ship with which a suspected demolition squad is said to have sailed to the Nord Stream pipelines is on the Rügen promontory Bug. An e-mail address used for the rental could also point to Ukraine

Anyone able to get into it

[junior moat]

Sara !! I shared this 5 hours ago right in this chat 😄 😄

[sand delta]

Damnit!

So we also get a Ukrainian email

[junior moat]

proof just for the record : #1072947857654554624 message 😉

[sand delta]

But you didn’t raise it 😡

I deserve the credit

[junior moat]

sorrry 😬

[sand delta]

I’m kidding

[junior moat]

😉

for non-German-speakers 😌

by the way, German TV will have another small report about Andromeda at 2100 .. I'll tune in and see if they drip-feed us another little hint to drool over 😄

[sand delta]

Lol

[vocal violet]

Update: Andromeda is not at the Mola storage, but rather in an old military harbour South of Dranske. This was found after looking at pictures from a WSJ article and geolocating them to the following coordinates: 54°35'48.7"N 13°13'53.3"E. This video from October shows the whole area from drone sight.

Good?

[sand delta]

Sure, but worth a reference to the Spiegel article.

[vocal violet]

Oh, need to catch up on that, just a sec

"This is corroborated by an article from Spiegel which also mentions the presence of the yacht in the Bug promontory. "

[sand delta]

Yes, perfect.

[carmine summit]

Regarding the dive equipment as I understand you can only really use straight compressed air up to 50m if your going to 80m you need a mixed set of gases (trimex heliox e.g more tanks of blended gas) and perhaps special tanks to aid decompression. and the training requirements are also steep. https://www.padi.com/courses/tec-100-ccr

[sand delta]

"Heute wird Bug von der Charterfirma der »Andromeda« als Winterlager für ihre Segelschiffe genutzt."

= the old military harbour is Mola's winter storage

[vocal violet]

Ok, so it's indeed in Mola's winter storage?

[sand delta]

So the thing we thought is probably it’s maintenance yard?

[junior moat]

not unlikely I'd say

[stark palm]

Where is it?

[sand delta]

https://www.google.de/maps/@54.5969469,13.232251,3a,75y,264.19h,81.64t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOn_OB0jcz3urGPjKX48wiwi6RJ1JattC6UA_GD!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOn_OB0jcz3urGPjKX48wiwi6RJ1JattC6UA_GD%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-4.9189487-ya155.22612-ro-6.089674-fo100!7i5376!8i2688

[distant olive]

Can someone remind me where the "renting a boat in Sweden" info came from?

[vocal violet]

Intercepted Russian communication

So yeah, take it with a huge pinch of salt

[vocal violet]

Yeah, a few pallets will be enough

[limber hinge]

There is none visible in the pictures.
It is a charter boat, so that makes sense.

[sand delta]

btw I dont get it why the possibility of the diving is so much questioned. here the original. https://www.rnd.de/panorama/experte-zur-nord-stream-sprengung-kein-hexenwerk-fuer-erfahrene-taucher-2HFIBXP4KNCPFD7VM22A4SXUAA.html see also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diving_shot

[sand delta]

Couldnt they connect some panels by themselves for the journey?

[limber hinge]

The situation seems to change a It when using a rebreather. Have done a deep dive (ha ha) into the process but it seems you only need small tanks of oxygen or a gas mix to supplement the rebreather catalyst.

I have not found how often you need to change the catalyst or daily maintenance requirements.

[limber hinge]

That is not feasible.
Running the generator or engine makes more sense. Adequate panels are rater big and heavy. It is September, how much sunlight do you have?

Their electric requirements probably far exceed what the solar/batter arrangement can supply.

And they are never really far from a marina where diesel is available.

Does anyone know how long the charter was for?

[sand delta]

I mean in case they did not want to show up often to marinas (traces)

[sand delta]

We've webcams showing a suspected Andromeda (not confirmed) there on the 6th

then gone in the two camera archieved between then until the 26th.

and reporting is it came back a couple days before the 26th

[limber hinge]

We often go months without a marina stop. I know what that takes.

This boat is not set up for that.

[distant olive]

Pinch of salt duly taken.

The reason I ask, is because a few years ago, YACHT tv documented the transferred the Mola fleet - 30 ships in total - from Flensburg to Rügen. They documented the trip with a nice video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by3HCopNOP0&t=3s

The thing that puzzles me, is that one of the ships seen in the video, the MAJA (MMSI: 211677500), was last located in Göteborg, Sweden, in 2017-06-23. Link to MT here: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:4121121/mmsi:211677500/imo:0/vessel:MAJA

Equasis nor GISIS return any hits for the MMSI.

[limber hinge]

So assume a 2 week rental, roughly Sept 10 to 24.
Date of first explosion?

[junior moat]

Sept 26, 0004 UTC first explosion

[sand delta]

It was in Wiek on the 7th though

[limber hinge]

Very good, assume 2 weeks Sept 5 to Sept 19, roughly.

[sand delta]

hmm

https://www.itu.int/pub/R-SP-LM.V

[true barn]

I crossed the atlantic and in another trip half of the pacific ocean on a 42 foot sailing yacht. we were three people on each trip. drinking water was the number one concern. you want to stow enough bottled water. you fill the fresh water tank to cook and have a quick shower once every few days. fuel was the number two concern, but it could only turn into a problem if you use the engine a lot. we used it mostly during anchoring maneuvers, close to coasts and to navigate through atolls. we didn't have any solar/wind powered battery charging, but used a generator for a few hours a day (2-4h IIRC). food is manageable. now bear in mind that our longest leg took 18 days, and after that we first anchored on an island w/o any infrastructure besides a fresh water well and a diesel generator in 50 people village in the middle of nowhere. everything is manageable. the andromeda trip was like camping in your front yard in comparison when it comes to basic logistics. I hope this puts things into perspective.

[sand delta]

and i'd imagine if you're dedicated enough to want to blow up Nordstream, you'll be willing to suffer through any miserableness.

[true barn]

yes, we also suffered through this with a lesser goal in mind...

[sand delta]

and to the same old decompression chamber story you always read. Compared to Bakhmut the chance of a diving accident is a child birthday.

[true barn]

there's also things like rice and lentils vs. pasta: pasta uses a lot of water but doesn't retain much, most of it is lost. so you prefer food that uses less water or retains more.

[limber hinge]

RE YACHT CHARTER OWNERSHIP
I can not speak to Mola but a common model is that the Charter company does NOT own the boat. They enter into a 'rent to own" program with some private investor ( schmuck) .

The investor buys the boat, finances the boat, through the Charter company
The company rents and manages the asset. The Owner gets 2 or 3 weeks free Charter a year and at the end of say 5 years, owns the boat, or a substantial portion thereof.

We are a heavy displacement 44 foot English cutter. We carry roughly 200 gallons of water and 200 gallons of diesel. We cook with kerosene, highly efficient and a dense energy source. We have solar (600 watts) and wind power. Rarely run our generator.
About 6 months a year.
Caribbean, so no heat.
Although we have done winters in US and been frozen in. Heat burns a lot diesel.

[junior moat]

Mola has their own sale page though, where they appear to be selling off the boats they previously rented out: https://www.yachthandel-mola.de/Yachthandel-Gebrauchtyachten.php

hm well actually this : https://www.yachthandel-mola.de/Yachtfinanzierung-im-Kauf-Charter-System.html

[limber hinge]

They may acting as a broker for the Owner. They make money by taking many slices of the pie.

[true barn]

could be on behalf of the owner as well

[velvet rain]

Guys, I've been away for two hours. Did we solve it yet?

[junior moat]

yes, all solved

it was Poroshenko, everyone gets chocolate 🍫

[carmine summit]

https://uk.boats.com/boats-for-sale/?class=sail-cruiser&make=bavaria&country=germany lots of boats marketed.

[true barn]

at 21:00 we get another major riddle to solve regarding to @junior moat

[sand delta]

crazy that there is no new reporting about chocolateman 😦

[pure vine]

there's a difference

it's physically possible to do a dive to 88m

however, we're trying to determine whether it's plausible to do so on a 15m sailboat

this is a very technical dive that requires a lot of equipment - we're looking into something like 2-3 hours on decompression alone

[junior moat]

yeah weird.. I was poking the journalists on twitter trying to get them to contact him, was even tagging him on twitter, don't think he noticed 😉

[velvet rain]

Where?

[sand delta]

have you read the article? the diving expert said 40 min possible

Can we watch it with a Discord watch party?

[junior moat]

oh no, upon checking again I realize it's tomorrow @ 2100 😦

https://www.zdf.de/politik/frontal/frontal-vom-14-maerz-2023-nord-stream-holzofen-feinstaub-kamin-sanktionen-russland-china-holz-bundesverkehrswegeplan-autobahnprjekte-wissing-100.html

[pure vine]

i have and it depends on a lot of factors

decompression isn't a single formula, it takes into account many different things. What you're breathing, how long it takes you to go down, how long you stay down

I believe 40mins he's actually referring to the bottom time or something similar, a 40min total dive would be borderline insane

[sand delta]

https://tenor.com/view/the-interview-honeydick-gif-10539378

[velvet rain]

Judging from the URL that seems like a wild mix of topics

[sand delta]

it's a magazine

[limber hinge]

Completely agree. I am trying to make a list of needed equipment. It is posted above.

[true barn]

so this extreme™️ diver guy talks about using a line with a weight and a swimmer. sounds plausible. would they leave the weight down there?

[deft stone]

Frontal is known for suggestive, false, manipulative or well. Nonexisting research into a topic, so thats gonna be interesting

[velvet rain]

I mean, it can't be worse than the movie before the last report.

[limber hinge]

My assumption was 3 hour total dive, 30 - 40 minutes on bottom and the balance decompression.

That is a looong time to hang on a piece of wire talking to yourself. I don't think sane people can do 2 dives a day of that.

[sand delta]

Probably would be pulverized anyway 😄

[true barn]

yeah, he says 4min to get down along the line

[carmine summit]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decompression_practice#/media/File:Decompression_stop_sample_profile.PNG I found this useful in understanding the profile of a deep "technical" dive on trimex to a depth of 60m.

[sand delta]

People survive solitary confinement for years. I don't think it is reasonable to narrow down the story based on that.

[sand delta]

maybe we could ask in diving boards online? I will do in a German one

[pure vine]

technical divers are built different

planting a bomb is not a quick one shot thing. it'll take a bit - you'll need a good 30-40mins to do so

dropping the weights with a line is doable, but the divers have physical limitations

[velvet rain]

Surely that will have already been discussed there at length?

[sand delta]

https://taucher.net/forum-taucherische_aspekte_der_ns2_sprengung-ioz93747 I start reading

[velvet rain]

Good find, I was thinking of something like that.

[sand delta]

One user is called Schokohai = Chocolate shark. Maybe false flag Poroshenko

[velvet rain]

Almost certainly

[nimble gull]

Lol, I was just about to post that.

[limber hinge]

Well if you guys come to consensus that my spreadsheet or assumptions need revision I will be happy to do so.

Just don't know how you would notify me.

Complete nookie here.

[velvet rain]

Me too, though I was going to warn the people who will be reading machine translations of that 😄

[raw nexus]

Just a side note, rumanian uses Latein and Bulgarian Cyrillic letters and they don't know the difference??

[junior moat]

hm, very valid point indeed

[sand delta]

It's good to have you 🙂

[elfin cradle]

That article is bad, I linked earlier where people dives to 80m with rebreather and heliox and how difficult that is even for experience divers.

[velvet rain]

You know how some Germans are when Eastern Europeans are concerned.

[sand delta]

I mean he is a diving expert with many decades experience. "easy" is relative. He is guessing a few hundreds in Germany could do it. There are many thousand divers, for perspective

[raw nexus]

But normally meck pomm knows Cyrillic

[elfin cradle]

And the post where people are diving is similar to this divers opinion.

https://twitter.com/BillyBostickson/status/1633722969968250881

Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 🆓 (@BillyBostickson)

316. Informative post by "PsyQuark" on the possible modus operandi and challenges involved in divers placing the charges from a yacht at such depths.

https://t.co/8mjZmmR1Mu

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 6:54 AM

[junior moat]

uh Billy the "CIA is everywhere" guy 😄

[velvet rain]

Oh, right, good point.

[elfin cradle]

That is a good estimation over how long time it can be. 40 min to go to the bottom is hard even with diving vics.
Yes, I dont like him, but his thread is the best summary with anything related to nord stream, lol. Because he links to anything relevant. Just ignore his batshit conspiracy theories.

[raw nexus]

However, it's needs an experienced diver with explosive knowledge, and they are not on the normal diving clubs. I said a few days ago that the biggest dive centrum in Poland is Warsaw. They train that there

[sand delta]

So his lower limit would be 1 hour. He says unrealistic, others say possible. However no matter if 1 hour or 2 hour. It' s not easy but possible.

[true barn]

i‘m not sure about the gps 1 mile off point he makes. this is bs in my books. also, exact coordinates of where the pipes actually lie are certainly accessible, not a state secret

[sand delta]

yes. he'is not credible.

[velvet rain]

Getting the exact pipeline coordinates is actually not that easy

[limber hinge]

I think more to the point is that a Diver will only accomplish 1 dive a day. Or that is my assumption anyway. Gotta start some where.

Anyway you cut it thosebarw tough, demanding dives.

[velvet rain]

Most of the publicly available sources are incredibly bad.

[sand delta]

Yes I also think that it is likely that there were not more than 1 dives a day. But what will we do with that assumption?

The location of the pipeline is published on navigation charts.

They need to be published accuratedly otherwise merchant ships would be dropping their anchor on it.

It's more a conspiracy theory that it would be hard to find

[elfin cradle]

They are maked on naval charts. They must be accurate enough to prevent ships from using anchor or trawl in the vicinity.

[velvet rain]

Yeah, not objecting of course.

[sand delta]

and trawlers would be catching their nets on it, exactly

[true barn]

they can’t be a mile off, imagine you anchoring 1 mile away from a pipeline and things go boom

[velvet rain]

Just complaining about data quality, as usual.

[sand delta]

civil GPS is as every one knows from daily use better than 10 meters accuracy

Selective availability was turned off by Clinton.

[velvet rain]

That's not necessarily true for many receivers

Smartphones usually have pretty bad receivers

They just fake it by using Wi-Fi networks as references points.

Open fields (I guess the open ocean qualifies) makes it somewhat better though

[true barn]

i‘m sure the gps receiver we were using back in 2007 was very exact

[velvet rain]

I was just talking about the daily use point

[sand delta]

The Andromeda comes with a charter plotter and GPS.

[true barn]

sometimes you need to get through narrow passages with rocks just under the sea floor left and right, and you use gps as much as your eyes to navigate

[sand delta]

https://www.gps.gov/technical/ps/2020-SPS-performance-standard.pdf SPS (for everyone) 3.6 meters root mean square. PPS (military), 3 meters RMS.

[pure vine]

fwiw something like the nordstream pipes would show on sonar

[true barn]

yeah some link on this discord mentioned that the pipe would be clearly visible using a fish finder device thingy for 3000 bucks

even though i still believe it was a whale mating with the pipes, I‘ve learned a LOT within a few days here 🤗

[elfin cradle]

Modern cellphones has multiple GNSS with an accuracy with +/-0.5m. As they use both GPS, Galileo, somtimes also the Glosnass and Baidu.
It would show up on side-scan sonar if you have one but they cost 4000+euro, around 2000 if you get one used.
Alternativy get a cheap ROV, but it would be too bulky to keep it on a sail boat.

However a sailbot would have a hard time to keep above one single point to support the divers, especially when its too deep to anchor.

[sand delta]

https://webapp.navionics.com/#boating@11&key=oy{qIkme_B here are pipelines marked in the map, however the part east of Bornholm is not for free. Do you have better maps?

[elfin cradle]

And trying to transport down a couple of hundres of kg to the bottom will take time, and if its drifting even a few meters on surface can mean tens of meters on the bottom.

[elfin cradle]

Sadly this map stops when reaching the danish waters

https://pasjon.eniro.se/#map=12.45/55.53361/15.75055

[true barn]

that‘s where the line comes into play

[sand delta]

Now I am 100 percent sure that you did not read the article or understand it (bad translation!?) -> Diving Shotline

[true barn]

you can lower it relatively exactly with a weight and use a small buoy. perfect for diving, lowering explosives and do a rendezvous later

[sand delta]

This doesn't have Nordstream on it, cos it's just a little too old.

But this is what they are working with.

Or a digital version of that.

[true barn]

some of the smaller scale maps are incredibly detailed with natural obstacles, etc.

[sand delta]

Yep.

btw the diving board discussion is quite interesting. so far i read, that sailing boat is quite perfect since it is not suspicious when it is doing crazy crossing maneuvers all the time

[limber hinge]

Exactly. That is why I have been saying you need a down line, like a wire rope with a weight on the bottom.
My assumption is the boat would try to get the down line close to the pipe line. Then the first dive will be to move the weight to the pipeline. And the second dive will be to lower the explosives and set them next to the pipe.

But I allowed equipment for 3 dives incase the first diver can not locate the pipe or something else goes amiss.

This is an important mission, hard to believe their planning would include only the ase minimum with no room for "oops."

[sand delta]

Just an example of how detailed small scale charts can be, this isn’t Bornholm though, it’s somewhere in the UK iirc.

[true barn]

it goes definitely lower than that

[sand delta]

It’s the best I have on me, but yes

[limber hinge]

Trivia, thr max accuracy of a chart is the width of the lines.

How wide is a line on that chart?

How far can you see in Baltic waters?

[sand delta]

The Andromeda has a chart plotter fed by GPS.

with that you can easily search for the exact point if you are a few dozen meters off.

[vocal violet]

Feel free to organise this, some weeks ago we had documentary nights on Fridays after all (:

[sand delta]

🗒️ ✍️

[elfin cradle]

A few meter or less. Just look how turbulent the water is in the ROV videos. Plus 80m down is dark.

[true barn]

you can zoom in and out. iirc, if you zoom into some region it changes to kind of a specific map of this place with a lot of details. there are also books stating how to enter harbors and bays like: enter at angle X until aligned with the red church on the hill, take care of low waters around the village of Y while passing through. it‘s quite amazing tbh

[sand delta]

And the nonsense you read online, that the explosive might be too heavy for the divers, should be ignored btw. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifting_bag

from the diving board discussion: "das ist sicher für einen erfahrenen Taucher in 10 Minuten Grundzeit machbar, d.h. der ganze Tauchgang dauert keine zwei Stunden (irgendwelche Pseudo-Experten hatten in der Presse erklärt, da bräuchte man viele Stunden für)." = "This can certainly be done by an experienced diver in 10 minutes of bottom time, i.e. the whole dive takes less than two hours (some pseudo-experts had explained in the press that many hours would be needed for that)."

[deft ice]

The weight concern I'd have is not handling it in the water. It's getting it there.

[sand delta]

C4 the plastic explosives could be stored in small packages and get connected just on the diving platform

[junior moat]

Semtex, it was Semtex 😉

[true barn]

so to take a step back and look at the feasibility of Andromeda being used by up to 5 male divers and a female bystander (🫣) to pull this off - how high are the chances of this NOT succeeding, or PARTS of it. we're talking about 3 explosions in close proximity, plus one which is far away (or did I ducking misinterpret the 4th leak this whole time?). Did it work out too perfectly given the circumstances? Is it really plausible to pull this off once, let alone multiple times? I think it depends a bit on how hard a single dive is. Were two dives needed or more? Each dive could lead to failure. What's the general consensus here?

[sand delta]

they also hit NS2A twice (once in the lone blast) and then 17 hours as one of the 3 northern cluster ones.

[true barn]

we didn't talk a lot about the southern explosion, did we?

[pure finch]

The 17 hours intrigues me.

[true barn]

the circumstances that there were 4 successful explosions, 3 in close proximity, 1 isolated, totally different spot within 17 hours - it's blowing my pipe a bit.

[sand delta]

since we don't know the actors, we have to consider highly trained divers, so I don't think the chances are so low that we can falsify the story just on plausibility theories.

[true barn]

ye, I got it, we're trying to figure this out

what do we know about the southern explosion?

[junior moat]

southern explosion happened exactly at the spot where pipe-laying was suspended by the Swiss vessel in Dec 2019 due to US-sanctions, and only picked up 1,5 years later in Apr 2021 by a russian vessel

and by exactly I mean down to the meter basically

no coincidence for sure

[sand delta]

Yes. but it is equally possible that the actors just wanted to be sure that they have the right position and looked at the vessel data. advantage: false flag factor. Of course the other option: stupid lazy Russians

[true barn]

I didn't know that, wow.

[sand delta]

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/is-the-akademik-cherskiy-to-blame

[junior moat]

yet another option: russians planted the explosives there already in April 2021 when they started pipe-laying in that spot
(my favourite pet-theory 😉 )
( note that in April 2021 the Kremlin had already decided to invade Ukraine in 2022 for sure !)

[pure finch]

The only thing that would make it better/funnier is if western IC was aware of these Russian pre-placed charges, leaked the info to Ukraine who went and blew them.

insert spiderman meme

[true barn]

Russia blew up NS2 to blackmail/shock the west (?) but lost its whole leverage when UA blew up NS1(??)

[sand delta]

That's why they liked the Hersh Story more 😄

[true barn]

17h later (!)

[velvet rain]

https://tenor.com/view/spider-man-we-one-gif-18212100

The reactions are perfect 😄

[pure finch]

@true barn nah I wouldn't even go that far - like if you secretly pre-place charges and someone else comes along and blows them up, you can't really complain 😄

[sand delta]

If it was Russia, they could do it without any surface presence, their submarine fleet is more than capable of carrying this out. Likewise for the Americans and British. Ukraine is perhaps the only country with an interest in doing it, without such a capability, but surely if they were behind it, they'd not want the whole plot to be painted so yellow and blue.

[true barn]

I dropped a fucking crazy talk post this morning nobody read luckily, go find it

[sand delta]

The surface stuff, if involved, seems like a giant game of subterfuge.

[shy fulcrum]

If the pipe is cracked open, the blast will follow (look at other gas pipe accidents) and could easily tear up the pipe lenghtways, disperse pipe segments etc. Not sure what NLAWS has to do with this?

[sand delta]

2 things: unlikely that Putler started the countdown back then, right? So the triggering part would be still mysterious. Other thing, what do you know about the long term stability of plastic explosives underwater? Sea mines might be not likely since suspecious radar signal (metal).

[elfin cradle]

Americans could not do it by themselves, they dont have quiet small disel submarines. Must have been using a NATO members subs in that case.

[sand delta]

Whether the Minerva Julie, the Andromeda, the apparent attempt to rent a Swedish yacht, the NATO vessels in the area, the Russian vessels in the area, etc, etc.

[true barn]

are we sure RU was capable of roaming the sea floor after starting the war?

[velvet rain]

Depends a lot how fractures would propagate in the materials

That's a question for a materials scientist

[sand delta]

It's the Baltic, I suppose.

[junior moat]

Semtex is stable underwater for up to 10 years is what I learned I think

[sand delta]

GUGI's headquarters is in St Petersburg.

[junior moat]

GUGI 😍 finally my fav topic --> https://lynceans.org/all-posts/you-need-to-know-about-russias-main-directorate-of-deep-sea-research-gugi/

[vocal violet]

Russia could have easily brought a sub from St Petersburg or even it's main base in Kamchatka to the Baltic, the only maritime restriction it truly has is for the Black Sea as for the Montreux convention

[sand delta]

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-minerva-julie-unknowing-submarine

Which is where this theory comes into place, since apparently NATO detected an unknown submarine in the Baltic around the time.

[sand delta]

what are Russia's smallest/ most silent submarines that are capable?

[vocal violet]

Yup, I read that when Oliver posted it

[true barn]

but russia had no real motives to blow their lever(s) up

[elfin cradle]

All I have read is that Nordstream is overengineerd and would not crack open.

And Russia has atleast 1 Kilo submarine in the baltic fleet. Intresxting that it became into sea trails just months before the explosions. Time to leak a new story to German news? :"D
https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/july/11893-russian-improved-kilo-class-submarine-ufa-begins-sea-trials-in-baltic-sea.html

[elfin cradle]

Improved Kilo class.

[sand delta]

Would be suspicious if Russia would not have some submarines around during a NATO maneuver.

[vocal violet]

I don't know, I'm not an expert on submarines, I'm just mentioning that it has the possibility to do so 😅

[true barn]

everything here just blows my mind

need to decompress it

[elfin cradle]

The forbidden cheese!

[pure finch]

Russian mil/intel use of "civilian" cargo/fishing etc vessels has a loooong history.

[elfin cradle]

Errr, I have a list somewhere of Russian "dual use" ships.

[sand delta]

This entire case is genuinely absurd to me too, lol.

[elfin cradle]

Got this frome a guy on twitter, but I have not had time to put MMSI numbers to them. But they are a bunch...

[elfin cradle]

Like the pipelines? :"D

[junior moat]

It's missing my favourite Bakhtemir 😢

[true barn]

I can only imagine the cognitive dissonance in this channel after the truth comes out... "BUT, NO, IT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE"

[elfin cradle]

"A spetsnaz combat swimmer exits the torpedo tube of a KILO Class submarine. The DPVs were also deployed from the torpedo tube."
http://www.hisutton.com/Spetsnaz_exercise_in_Mediterranean.html

[sand delta]

In the end it was Germany itself 😄

[raw nexus]

This here feels like Dr. House's whiteboard

[pure finch]

My favourite line from a Norwegian article about Russian maritime activity (which I heard secondhand) from 2021: "You get surprised when a freighter, loaded with scrap metal, suddenly starts pinging with active sonar".

[sand delta]

For what it’s worth, Germany itself has the capability to have blown up these pipelines, at least in a diving sense.

German KSM operator preparing to be launched out of a German u-boats torp tubes.

[true barn]

Or Greta x Greenpeace

[pure finch]

That there is a job I would not want

[sand delta]

https://tenor.com/view/dont-fire-the-torpedoes-fire-the-torpedoes-homer-simpson-submarine-the-simpsons-gif-20636298

[pure finch]

"It's my first day"

[vocal violet]

I mean, we can agree it's not lupus

[sand delta]

Picture of a submarine return through a torpedo tube, this time from our friends in Russia.

[velvet rain]

That picture is terrifying

[elfin cradle]

If you wanna go in depth (pun intended) of Russian capabilities in the Baltic sea, then read this article: "The Baltic Sea’s Underwater Environment: Russian Opportunities"
Page 77-85 covers
https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/black-sea-security/chornomorska-bezpeka-1-39-2021/download-black-sea-security-1-39-2021-in-english

[whole thunder]

I can stream it again

[elfin cradle]

If the article is correct and Russia has planted MGK-608 hydrophones to surveil NS, they would have pretty easy to provide proof that it was a western sub that put explosives.

[restive kelp]

Andromeda also has radar reflector?

[elfin cradle]

Either the MGK-608 dont exist or is shitty as fakk as much of russian millitary stuff is, or it may have been a Russian sub (if it was a sub).

[junior moat]

if we're talking russian intentions to damage stuff in the Baltic this report is even more relevant I feel
https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/analysis/reports-and-presentations/oglyad-concealed-activity-of-the-russian-navy-in-the-area-of-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-at-completion-stage/download-research-in-english

[whole thunder]

I didn't see one in the pictures. 15m is quite big enough to go without one I guess.

[deft ice]

I like to imagine the divers attempting to lay a 40 piece brick pyramid atop the pipe, which gets toppled by a current at the last moment, so they spend a whole day scouring the sea bed looking for the bricks lol

[sand delta]

Didn’t see that at the time, nice work though 🙂

[junior moat]

yeah just realized

probably same/similar content 😄

[sand delta]

Sorry, that was @elfin cradle’s article whoop

[whole thunder]

What I've said before. Rumors about russian scouting out undersea cables whole building NS (good opportunity to be around without raising suspicions). Russian undersea capability is nothing really to discuss. They can do it, like other western powers as well

[limber hinge]

Peter Zeuhan or Neil's Anders, both good analysts, said after the NordSteeam that Russia had special subs with this
capability. Then there is somensite dedicated to Russian subs that lists their modlea and capability.

The point was Russia has rhe ability to wreck havoc on subsea infra structure like pipe lines and fo cables. NordStream qas just a warning.

[elfin cradle]

Same instituon that made the text.

[true barn]

in my naivety, I would have guessed the seabed in the baltics is pretty much as visible as everything else these days.

[elfin cradle]

hisutton has written some articles on Russian midget subs.

[limber hinge]

No it does NOT!
Look at the photos.

[sand delta]

~~Have you read something about their exact capabilities, like how small objects with what signature in what distance can be identified by those hydrophones? ~~"The unit can detect ships and low-noise submarines
in areas up to 1,000 km long, at a distance of up to
200 km from the coast and depths up to 1,000 m,
in areas of 30-300 thousand square kilometres at
the same time. The target detection range of an individual station
is up to 150 km, and the error in determining the
distance to the target is not more than 2 km."

[true barn]

what would be the motive of RU to pull this off? could it really be that they indeed wanted to blow up one of the pipelines to blackmail UA(or similar), but ultimately to make western society go: „omg, we‘re freezing to death, unless we buy russian gas from the other pipeline and paying in rubles and not sending leopards“

[junior moat]

motive is for Gazprom to save 50 billion $

[whole thunder]

And sending a signal: "bridges are taken down, screw "wandel durch Handel" "

(Change trough trade)

[elfin cradle]

I think I´ve seen number of 150-200km somewhere. Will try to find the exact but here is from the manufacture site.

https://www.niiatoll.ru/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=80&Itemid=481B
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/mgk-608e.htm

[whole thunder]

Remember politics back in the days

[elfin cradle]

Unkown what thier source is but this is where i´ve seen 150km:

"The range of target detection by a single station is up to 150 km. The MGK-608 is designed for uninterrupted operation of 10 years without lifting the bottom part. Thus, we can imagine that the system of underwater espionage in the Baltic Sea may look like this:"

https://geostrategy.org.ua/en/media/articles/pivnichniy-potik-2-i-prihovani-mozhlivosti-rosiyskogo-flotu-na-baltici

[sand delta]

"Let Europe freeze" for example. Did Russia had motives to start the war in Ukraine? Of course. Will it be profitable for them in the long run? Probably not. In the end everyone could have motives (many Americans, Polish, Ukrainians reacted happily), but some might be not well-thought. The cui bono game will not help us much.

[junior moat]

okay I'm solving....
It was Poroshenko with Bakhtemir using Semtex, payed by Gazprom, with Andromeda and sonobuoys 🎉

[elfin cradle]

1. Russia / Gazprom dont need to pay out tens of billions of USD for non delivery of gas.
2. Russia blow them up and trying to make it look that it was the US to increase the schizm between EU and US. Make Europe weaker, let EU freeze, etc
3. Show how far they are willing to go, to make one of the last bridges to EU burn.

[true barn]

oh man. you’re right, I forgot about the contracts

[elfin cradle]

If Russia would have been able to take Kyiv within a month the increased profits of oil and gas would make a such a short war very profitable.

[elfin cradle]

@junior moat Knows more about gas contract than I do. Atleast he has linked more stuff about that than I´ve been able to find myself.

[junior moat]

good article re: the contracts
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/gas-contracts-central-to-nord-stream-pipeline-mystery/

[true barn]

then again, gazprom could simply not pay

[sand delta]

Of course. That's what I mean with "not well thought". They miscalculated their opponent. Just as some stupid CIA guys could miscalculate etc.

[elfin cradle]

Yes, Russia believed that Ukraine was as weak it was 2014. And was feed false info from Ukrainan intelligence that they were weak. And Russia had underestimated the western support and belived it would been weaker, as how EU has acted after the 2014 invasion.

[limber hinge]

Danish analyst on who blew up pipeline
https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido

[sand delta]

5 months ago comon

[limber hinge]

And another on attacks like the pipeline Iine

https://youtu.be/EeP_ZZbBIl4

[true barn]

what do you people think about RU blowing up one pipeline vs. both?

[elfin cradle]

I still wonder how Russia are able to keep such a stable foreign exchange of cash.
You can see pretty clear when issues with NS began in juli/agusti.

https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_7d/

[whole thunder]

Actually,it could be.

I had a close look at the photos again. It could be that it has a small one up in the mast
(Pictures are recycled from this thread)
2nd picture isn't andromeda, but Breege. Only put it in for explanatory reasons

@sand delta @limber hinge

[sand delta]

Yea, that’s a radar reflector

[limber hinge]

And yet another analyst POV
https://youtu.be/ODpoJW074_A

[elfin cradle]

Do you mean if russia were sole actor or just blew one pipeline?
Or more why Russia kept one pipeline open?

[true barn]

the former

i mean we see the result, no gas, no rubles, plenty leopards

(of both pipelines out)

[limber hinge]

Nope, at least unlikely. The second photo IS a radar reflector.
The first one is almost assuredly just some chafe protection on the rigging for the sails.

Could be wrong, but don't think so.

Need a better pic to convince me I am wrong.

[sand delta]

Hold on, which one isn’t the Andromeda.

[whole thunder]

It's only on one side. If its a Protection chafe, it would be on both sides?

[whole thunder]

The one with the back to us is not andromeda

[limber hinge]

Other side ishidden by mast.

[whole thunder]

The other boats, all of them having only one

[true barn]

i need to get some sleep, will catch up tomorrow.

[junior moat]

by the way, now that we're all experts on the topic of underwater explosives (it was the illegal cheese)...
do we know anything about fuzes and which ones are realistic to have been used ?

[junior moat]

rest well

[sand delta]

One notion to the MJ covering Russian submarine theory: Wouldn't it be quite risky doing just at same time as Nato maneuver Northern Coasts (29 August—28 September)?

[shy fulcrum]

The wall thickness in the pipes ranges from 26- 41mm. The concrete casing is no protection against explosives. It may be overengineered, but not with sabotage in mind. On the contrary - pipelines must be considered extremely vulnerable infrastructure. To blow up a pipeline you only need to pierce it open - with a fairly small charge - the internal pressure will do the rest. I’m posting the video again: https://www.ebad.com/ace-advanced-cutting-explosive/

[whole thunder]

#1072947857654554624 message

#1072947857654554624 message

Those are radar reflectors. It's on the same position on nearly every boat. Not sure what to do with this Info, but...

@sand delta

[elfin cradle]

any regular detonator in a explosive booster would work and just waterproof.

Here is a little info on soviet detonators for specific underwater limpet mines and explosives.
http://www.dogswar.ru/boepripasy/miny/8884-vzryvatel-podvodnyh-.html
https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/firing-devices/sz-6-demolition-charge

[sand delta]

Ah I see.

[junior moat]

okay and then attach some timer ?
alternatively, how realistic is some form of remote detonation / reprogramming of the timer ?
Think I read somewhere underwater mines can be reprogrammed with new instructions remotely

[tired monolith]

I think it its hard to really grasp the calculations around it tbh. Russia knows NATO is doing everything in their power and more to avoid having to confront Russia head on, and activity on a nonoperational pipeline in murky waters might just be worth rolling with - if you believe its not going to lead to article 5 and is a Putin poker player going all in

[hollow remnant]

I'll shoot my EOD friend a message and see what he has to say on this

[junior moat]

awesome

like these mines on this website sound less like just explosives and more like ChatGPT which can also detonate stuff 😉
https://electronica-submarina.com/mines-category/minea-smart-naval-mine/

[pallid moat]

I'm guessing it was sold to someone else, probably the guy who submitted the photos to MT. Pics are from April and June 2017 in Denmark https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/photos/of/ships/shipid:4121121/shipname:MAJA?order=date_uploaded

[limber hinge]

All right then, I stand corrected (but will argue anyway.)

I found the "radar reflector"
A description from seller.

Dear Jytte, this article -16555-got a range up to 2,5 nautical miles. The Other one: -20704- got the double diameter and got a range up to 4 nautical miles. Yours SVB-team.

So YES it is a "radar reflector", but it hardly effective. Perhaps it meets some regulatory requirement. I will look in the Anchorage tomorrow to see if any boats gave them.

[elfin cradle]

Most likley timed explosives.
Radiowaves dont go belove more than 40m of water, and even then you need a long antenna for VLF.
I think one detonator on dogswar.ru says it has capabilty to explode when detecting sound. (Will try to find it again).
Like the only way to remote control the explosives is via wire / fiber optic cable, or a sonar pulse.

[junior moat]

yeah fascinating angle to the story, at least if pre-planted explosives were involved

[pure finch]

Again, I go back to why the 17 hour difference if they were detonated remotely.

[boreal plover]

Were there traces of clogs, windmills, tulips or bicycles on the Andromeda?

[junior moat]

my theory re: 17 hours -> whoever did it wanted to wait and see if certain (political) reactions would take place, and once they didn't occur went ahead (hiiiighly speculative though ;D)

[raw nexus]

Would a sonar pulse be heard?

[pure finch]

Yes, if someone was listening with hydrophones/passive sonar.

Odds are someone had acoustic sensors listening somewhere within range.

[thick crag]

i got an email back from christianso. nothing new (just confirming what we already know) but here:

Dear MyNameHere,

It is not possible to refuel on Christiansø.

You have to search for a harbour on the island of Bornholm.

//EmployeeNameHere

[sand delta]

Nice!

@cobalt valley got this.

They are going to be wondering why people are asking about diesel so much.

[raw nexus]

I think that the investigators still sit on a lot of information not being leaked for political reason

[pure finch]

I'm sure there are very good "protecting sources and methods" reasons for not releasing information too.

[elfin cradle]

And Denmarks second largest (on bornholm) and Swedens 3rd largest SIGINT (karlskrona) facilities cover the explosion sites, with a number of radars.

[junior moat]

just listening on the side to Michael Weiss who I quite respect saying he knows things about the explosions he cannot disclose yet but he thinks quote "when it comes out what I know it will be quite amusing" 😳 😄
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tPTj7twK-w

[raw nexus]

The Baltic sea there is one of the best covered regions cause of Russia

[thick crag]

how often do stories come out where every other relevant journalist seems to know tons about the story, but none seem to be willing to win the scoop?

[boreal plover]

do we really know that? I can easily imagine that an explosion on large enough to make a small hole in the pipe wall could lead to the asymmetrical stresses fr9m the gas pressure could make the pipe rapidly "unzip". I am absolutely not a metallurgist or explosives expert, though. I guess part of the problem I'd that there are so few comparable 33xamples, so data on what happens when explosives go off on a highly pressurised pipeline 80m under water. Lots of theory and conjecture, not much empirical evidence - it would be a very expensive experiment...

[thick crag]

I am almost as curious about the weirdness of the reporting as I am about the andromeda, MJ, etc.,

[pure finch]

@thick crag DITTO!

[limber hinge]

RE: Radar Reflectors

Sorry to beleaguered the point, however I found a test report on radar reflectors including the ones used on Andromeda.

The test results were summarized as "essentially invisible."
You have to find the link in the summary and download the full report. FREE.

http://honeynav.com/sri-radar-reflector-study/

[elfin cradle]

Need to find a source, but iirc NS would be able to have a preassure many times than its operation pressure.

I found this report, where they use an offsore 36" / 871mm offshore pipe with thiccness of 34mm, and the deformation on the pipe of an charge of 600kg that is 4m from the pipleline looks similar to one deforment of the pipe in one of the ROV videos.
Its highly tecnical report, but if somone gets it, they could make som estimations for NS.

Effect of Underwater Explosion on Pipeline Integrity
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/276241513_Effect_of_Underwater_Explosion_on_Pipeline_Integrity

[junior moat]

alright, if turns out to have been Poroshenko with just a rogue team on Andromeda, and everyone in US & Scandinavian & German security circles always knew about it and just didn't want to undercut support to Ukraine .... well in that case I'll need a couple of beers extra every day for a few weeks 😉 🍻 🍻 🍻
good night ppl, see ya tmrw

[tired monolith]

if you are going to construct stories to back up all of the insanity it seems like a viable consideration. Problem is that unless it is Ukraine it feels like me that none of the involved actors would have much to gain by releasing everything they know currently, and if it is Ukraine it would only benefit Russia

[elfin cradle]

Har to say when we only basically have one picture of the pipe that show something similar, so too early to say it was that size of explosives.
But sprengtechnik argument for multiple hundres of kg explosives are the same explanation, that the pipe were buclked towards the other side of pipe.

[sand delta]

btw here a real dive log shared in the diving board(https://taucher.net/forum-taucherische_aspekte_der_ns2_sprengung-ioz93747?page=4): 85 meters, 1:18 hour total time

[tired monolith]

so if Russia had proof somone else did it I would have expected them to pile it on since it would help them, and if NATO and allies have solid evidence its Russia it favors them to keep everything uncertain for the time being

[sand delta]

and if NATO and allies have solid evidence its Russia it favors whom?

[shy fulcrum]

I’ll go with Olivers idea that there was a weakness in the joint where the Allseas Solitaire left off, and the Akademik took over. We know that was the exact spot of the leak, so its just the simplest explanation. So no explosives in the south, but for sure something in the north. And I think only the NS1 was targeted in the north.The NS2 leak in the north was probably collateral damage. It would be pointless to mine an already blown pipe, 17 hours later. It was close enough to NS1 to sustain damage, while the second NS2-pipe was far enough away to survive.

[tired monolith]

my point is that in the current situation NATO doesnt want any escalation outside Ukraine, especially when its not having anything other than material effect on some pipes that has no foreseeable use currently. So if Russia is leaking stuff to point to Ukraine and NATO is happy with uncertainty and the one actually doing it is Russia you accomplish a stalemate where you cant prove anything but have a constant noise of trickle stuff RU managed to arrange to point to Ukraine

considering several journalists says they have more info its even weirder, but they cant have solid sources since theyre not releasing it and at that point it could be planted stuff they are privvy too aswell

[hollow remnant]

Okay so EOD friend got back about detonators etc

"Ok so anything can be set off remotely
However most underwater applications require a chemical delay or direct charge to battery connector/blasting box as water is good at blocking most signals "

"The composition of the detonator could be as simple as a primer with Armstrong mixture that would set of a primary or secondary charge that could be RDX, PETN semtex or other but if course you would need to adjust the det depending on the next item in the train. "

"Sometimes they use silver fulminate or mercury fulminate and potassium cholride (more common and more stable)
But could also contain lead azide ,lead styphnate ,ANFO ,amatol
Theres quite a list"

[limber hinge]

@shy fulcrum

[hollow remnant]

He also mentioned pre-programmed explosives that could automatically detonate under certain circumstances.

"By useing certain components to make a logic board programmed with if situation =,this -do this and it could ask the question several thousand times a second"

"Dont forget most chemical delays use acid but can also be combined with electrolytes to produce a battery"

[rustic bay]

Hey all, your periodic mod message. There's a lot of memes/reaction gifs/etc in an already busy thread. It's not something we want (or do in any other part of the discord really). Let's please keep that to a minimum because there's already so much to catch up on. Emoji reacts are good

[limber hinge]

RE: SUBMARINES

There is a site that focus on submarine news, H I Sutton.
The site is
COVERT SHORES

Here is his take on the NordStream attack. He notes Ruasian Saarinen activity in the area immediately before the attack.

http://www.hisutton.com/4th-Leak-in-NordStream-Attack.html

[sand delta]

I have just seen it. I have a strong feeling that Michael Weiss is talking about Chocolate Man.

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/erkperk/status/1634169560571019266

Erik Andersson 🐘 (@Erkperk)

@BillyBostickson Took a look at Bellingcat discussions -didn't see the proof you're awaiting but at least they found the female crew member was the doctor and she's good looking. Must confess I was wrong about Nuland.

Twitter · Mar 10, 2023, 12:29 PM

@vocal violet

https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1633539245850648584

Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate)

Funny, when "news dropped" in September 2022 that Nord Stream was bombed, Bellingcat did zero "research."

Now that "news dropped" 5+ months later that Bellingcat's NATO state handlers finally have their cover-up story, you're of course doing "maniacal research" to defend it.

Likes

1274

Retweets

248

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 6:44 PM

[vocal violet]

LMAO

@magic niche Check this above

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1635368958705672193

Joe Bodnar (@joeabodnar)

I've learned a ton by hanging out on Bellingcat's Discord. The group looking into Nord Stream is wildly resourceful and seems to never sleep.

Twitter · Mar 13, 2023, 7:55 PM

Joe going straight for our hearts.

I’m going to bed now, but I suppose it’s a useful reminder as ever that (as much as there is plenty nice people here, all of the people I’ve interacted with of course) there’s definitely dicks lurking in this server, so be careful.

[vocal violet]

For all the people spying on us or come from this tweet https://twitter.com/Erkperk/status/1634169560571019266 please don't be shy and introduce yourselves! 👋

We have nothing to hide here, this is an open server after all!

[rustic bay]

Where did we find out she was attractive

[tired monolith]

I think after looking at those accounts I lost the ability to tell the difference, so you can source it to me if (woman) { $attractive }

[velvet rain]

Some people just can't help themselves when they see the opportunity to make a sexist joke. They'll read whatever they want into a text.

[rustic bay]

Well yeah. I just didn't know if I missed a picture of the gang

[hoary maple]

It’s probably cause it quotes “delicate” from some article

in the google doc

[tired monolith]

yeah its mentioned in those terms from reporting, nothing identified or seen of this supposed female person

[velvet rain]

Serious answer though, the woman was described as "zierlich" in the media reports, which got translated to "petite", which got turned into "delicate" in the Google Doc, which got turned into "good looking" by Twitter guy.

[rustic bay]

Sounds about right

[tired monolith]

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/german-english/zierlich

[velvet rain]

About two weeks until certain Twitter spheres go "BREAKING: BELLINGCAT RATES NORDSTREAM BOMBERS AS 8/10"

[vocal violet]

I believe it is what it was originally reported? That part was written by @magic niche so I can't give an answer

[hoary maple]

Don’t worry, he’s also a proponent of Hersh so

take that as you will

[rustic bay]

I'm going to give my best fake headlines about this in #chit-chat

[hoary maple]

Also, its hilarious to me that we are all considered part of Bellingcat by these people

https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1633539245850648584?s=46&t=IgUTHbFY6RP4zX5AvinALg

Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate)

Funny, when "news dropped" in September 2022 that Nord Stream was bombed, Bellingcat did zero "research."

Now that "news dropped" 5+ months later that Bellingcat's NATO state handlers finally have their cover-up story, you're of course doing "maniacal research" to defend it.

Likes

1274

Retweets

248

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 6:44 PM

[vocal violet]

I shall add to my CV that I work for Bellingcat and put Aaron Maté as my reference

[tired monolith]

from what I recall it sounded like the characteristic in the reporting was to try to imply the female person had a specific role in the operation and wasnt suitable for handling a lot of heavy loads more than looks, but yea very evident how similar words for the same stuff can alter the story. Reminds me of those kids circle games where you are supposed to retell to your neighbor and when it reaches the end you get the last to tell the story and its totally changed its meaning

[sand delta]

The telephone game.

[hoary maple]

I’ve already written a lovely article about disinformation and Hersh. its simply waiting in the wings :)

[sand delta]

(As a native German, non-native in English) I would translate "zierlich" as "petite" regarding women.

[deft crescent]

This is something I've been working on for a while and will be continuing to update, but here is an archive of all the relevant visual material that has been shared in this chat or that I have found that focuses on the Andromeda, Mola's dock in Rostock (both during and outside of the relevant time frame in September 2022), and the harbors of Wiek and Christiansø during September 2022. There are still images to add (namely more of the webcam stills from Rostock) but I wanted to go ahead and share the archive here since a large number of the photos have not previously been shared. This is the file with all the visual material https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1d2pgxzhtEOo9g46tC2tH-shP-0HLYOKI?usp=sharing and this is the spreadsheet documenting dates and page links as well as some notations on images https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MSrTEBnkG_SJ7PtY5EpyJAj7MrJMGn7i/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=103513056310860743307&rtpof=true&sd=true

[raw nexus]

That's s great idea and additional collection

[thick crag]

That’s awesome. @rustic bay, would it be possible to pin that, please?

[whole thunder]

@vocal violet probably link the gdrive-file in your summary?

[junior moat]

😂 😂 gotta love Danish TV2 ❤️ they love us back - "the keys have been in flames" 🔥 🔥

[nimble gull]

How would an accidental NS2 leak in the south cause a seismographic result, similar to the northern ones, many kilometers away though?

[restive kelp]

Yes that was also my biggest objection.

[restive kelp]

Olivers counter argument was, however, that in both cases the main blast came from the pressure within the pipes.

[sand delta]

Where’s this!

[raw nexus]

Can u link the article

[junior moat]

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2023-03-10-nye-detaljer-i-opsigtsvaekkende-teori-om-nord-stream-sabotage

[nimble gull]

Interesting. If that can be backed up (which I’m sure he has), then it also means a much smaller explosive charge (compared to the “100s kgs”) would be needed if the goal is just to cause a rupture.

[vocal violet]

Sure!

[stark palm]

The first one was quite a bit smaller than the second. 1.8-1.9 compared to 2.3

Also talking to seismologists, at thar magnitude it is basically guesswork.

[junior moat]

Yeah though now with the new information about Andromeda .. it's just too much coincidence. The pipeline was under full pressure since Dec 2021 and then self-ruptures exactly in Sept 2022 just after a yacht with explosives was touring the Baltic ..?
I don't believe in this level of coincidence tbh (not impossible, but really not very likely I feel)

[serene grove]

bottom left quadrant has info on repeated dive intervals (limiting factor is residual blood nitrogen content) http://www.scubadiverinfo.com/images/Dive_tables_NAUI.jpg

[serene grove]

hey where did we get 200kg explosives from?

[restive kelp]

Its consensus that at least NS1 was ruptured by explosives

[stark palm]

Talking to a commercial diver yesterday. He said doing that many dives to that depth without a decompression chamber in that relatively short time was just asking to get the divers killed

[true barn]

even if the southern part self-ruptured, timelines are too perfectly aligned here.

[serene grove]

bit of a caveat there: these days pretty much all blue water vessels have RO systems for distillation (they call them "water makers") so that won't be as much of an issue anymore

[junior moat]

I know but also for NS2A-south .. too much coincidence for my taste. As I said, the pipeline was doing just fine under full pressure for 9 entire months.. shortly after Andromeda supposedly leaves the Baltic it suddenly ruptures

[true barn]

it‘s true. ours was broken from the beginning. so we filled our fresh water tank whenever possible. I‘m still not sure if you‘d drink it w/o further processing or cooking

[serene grove]

generally RO is the last phase of processing, and nah no need to cook it, it's just ready to go

[serene grove]

yeah that's what my buddy says too...and the chart just says "avoid repeated dives over 100ft"

gotta be honest here, I would absolutely not attempt to send human divers down based on what I've been learning about 80m technical issues

a standard petroleum industry ROV could handle this just fine

[true barn]

skipper, doc, four highly qualified divers?

[serene grove]

no highly qualified diver would attempt this without a recompression chamber around IMO

in an industrial environment, working at that depth would require a saturation diving rig if you wanted to spend longer than like 10-20 minutes at the bottom

my take on it is if this is the vessel that did it, they probably used a lil ROV instead of people

it would be cheaper anyway

[whole thunder]

If its done by, let's say some kind if special forces/intelligence service..... aren't those people there fir doing things wich gets you likely killed or are dangerous in general? Especially if the option russian false flag is still on the table.

Nit saying that's it what happened.

[serene grove]

I'm having a hard time finding tables that even go down to 80m tbh

[sand delta]

Would rebreathers work?

Not a diving expert, just curious.

[serene grove]

for some phases yes

but you're going to need like 3 different gas mixes to have a chance at survival on this one

[restive kelp]

For the course on trimix diving to 80m they do 2 dives per day (!)

https://www.cmas.org/document?sessionId=&fileId=2604&language=1

[true barn]

https://www.bsac.com/training/technical-diving-courses/open-circuit-tech-courses/advanced-mixed-gas-diver-80m/?&&type=rfst&set=true

[serene grove]

yeah but the tradeoff is you only get 15 minutes at the bottom

the longer you spend, it gets exponentially more difficult to decompress

saturation divers will spend like up to a week or even two decompressing depending on how deep they were for how long

[sand delta]

Irregardless of whether the military is sharing whatever intelligence they have, surely the investigation would have taken the opportunity to talk to navy divers, hell even civilian diving experts, before spending what seems like 3 or more months working on a hypothesis that relies on it.

[serene grove]

yeah the issue is the vessel

[sand delta]

When you think about it, surely any of the 6 could be trained divers?

Or, well, I mean, all of them.

[serene grove]

unless there's some fancy new portable recompression chamber that somehow fits into that thing...

[sand delta]

You’re not making divers do repeated dives if four do one each, I suppose.

[serene grove]

that's a good point

[sand delta]

Like I doubt they are using the diving “buddy system” either.

[pure vine]

possible but not usually recommended in case something goes wrong

[serene grove]

yeah I guess it wouldn't be impossible if they had all the right gas available and enough space to carry it all

[sand delta]

It’s not recommended to plant explosive charges either,

[serene grove]

assuming they manage to find the pipe, plant the explosives, etc, in 15 minute sections

[pure vine]

i think they used two divers per dive because the last thing you want is a dead diver coming ashore in bornholm with a couple hundred kg

[restive kelp]

because the decompression problems get exponential with time I guess the best thing would be to get more people on each dive to reduce bottom time.

[sand delta]

https://youtu.be/xqovipYOHOE

Dumbass question

Surely you don’t need to decompress if you free dive?

[serene grove]

nope

you go straight down and come straight back up

no breathing while you're down

[vocal violet]

Free dives are too short to require decompression

[sand delta]

Assuming you got it bang on

plop, plant the explosives, straight back up

[pure vine]

https://www.deeperblue.com/decompression-and-freediving-what-are-the-real-risks/

[true barn]

here something about the distances in the NE cluster

[pure vine]

Short surface interval times
If you are diving to depths of 20m (65ft) and 30m (98ft), DCS is not likely to happen in one dive. This is due to nitrogen build-up being relatively low from a single dive. But pearl divers in the Pacific area and spearfishers may dive for hours on end, with numerous dives to these depths, and not take long enough surface interval times between dives. This means that nitrogen is slowly building up in the blood and not being fully released at the surface before the next dive. With enough repetitive dives like this, the possibility of too much nitrogen build-up in the body arises, resulting in the diver presenting signs and symptoms of DCS. This also applies to safety dives you perform.

[serene grove]

I mean it's less about the duration in this case and more about the gas saturation in blood...because you're not respirating, the gas saturation stays the same...but you are limited to how long you can hold your breath lmao

[pine umbra]

okay I have basically 0 knowledge about diving but is free diving really viable for a task like placing larger amounts of explosives? I feel like the dive alone takes up insane amounts of human body capibility?

[vocal violet]

Yes, but shorter time also means less N saturation

[serene grove]

yeah that's true if you're breathing...otherwise the saturation just stays constant

[pure vine]

in this case it becomes a factor of breathing times

[pine umbra]

I mean diving 80m down and back up is one thing, but performing (what I assume to be) highly complicated tasks?

[pure vine]

breathing in air has nitrogen which is the issue

[serene grove]

yeah I mean if you hit the pipe exactly through some sheer luck then yeah there are probably about a dozen people on earth who could do it

[sand delta]

Any of them Ukrainian?

😏

[pure vine]

free diving is a dead end, doing a series of record breaking free dives while doing highly specialized tasks is absurd

[pine umbra]

thats what I was wondering

[pure vine]

it's one in a million trillion quadrillion

[sand delta]

[serene grove]

yeah and we're talking about 80m here

it's a whole different animal

if you try to use compressed air at that depth you will probably die

[sand delta]

What’s the difference with the diving out of a submarine hypothetical?

[pure vine]

yes 100%

[pure vine]

mainly space considerations tbh

[serene grove]

submarines are a pain in the ass

[sand delta]

If we assume it was either NATO or Russian divers operating out of their submarine torpedo tube.

[pure vine]

or a diver delivery vehicle

[pine umbra]

but if you are using a submarine, couldnt you just let a submarine robot-thing do the whole task?

[serene grove]

I mean if NATO did it we'd use one of those cable tapping subs with the skids

there's probably one in that region already

[whole thunder]

Divers don't leave subs at 80m depth I suppose

[sand delta]

GUGI is in Saint Petersburg after all.

[pure vine]

russia or nato would have somewhat similar capabilities

[pure vine]

http://www.hisutton.com/Naval Spetsnaz in Hybrid Warfare.html

http://www.hisutton.com/Piranha Special Forces submarine.html
these were scrapped but maybe a derivative could come into play here?

[serene grove]

nah divers use these not subs

[whole thunder]

Sara asked for divers leaving submarine tubes

[serene grove]

this is the kind of boat I would want if they were gonna have me dicking around with a pipe at 80m

[pure vine]

even then doesnt work because its not just the breath, it's the nitrogen within the tissue

and even then all gasses require decompression at depth

[serene grove]

I mean I believe it's a thing that happens but like, near the surface

[pine umbra]

damn thats some major upgrading to the Andromeda

[whole thunder]

That's what I said

[sand delta]

Fun fact, don’t search up images of what happens when they get a hole.

Human blood cannon.

[pure vine]

for about 3 hours i considered trying to become a saturation diver until i read about that

[vocal violet]

Fast decompression incidents are some of the most gruesome things out there

Very morbid, don't look it up casually

[sand delta]

Oh god, I shouldn’t have searched again.

Yea, avoid the words “Byford Dolphin accident” on Google images.

[pine umbra]

don't think about the pink elephant?

[serene grove]

ehhhhh it's kinda like seeing someone who got pancaked...like they clearly died instantly

but I am a lot less sensitive to gore than a lot of people I guess (coming from a hunting family)

anyway saturation diving is relatively safe compared with cave diving...you can do a lot worse for yourself financially too

modern equipment has a bunch of physical interlocks and digital control systems that make it difficult to fuck up

[pine umbra]

looking up some of those made me realise how great it feels to be above the surface of the sea

[serene grove]

yeah if you breathe air it is generally a good idea to be where air is

anyway my point is for any practical work at 80m you want a saturation diving rig

[sand delta]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/survival-in-space-unprotected-possible/

[serene grove]

(or a bunch of slavs with no fear of cold water nor death)

[pure vine]

i guess there's a difference between
"can a doctor in a midlife crisis dive to 80m from the andromeda" and "can you do technical work diving at 80m from the andromeda)

[sand delta]

Monkeys can last 3.5 minutes in a (near) vaccuum, and yes, NASA did this experiment.

[pure vine]

IMO the only way this can be done from the Andromeda is if you're a state actor with little regard for life

[serene grove]

there's a big difference between "being in a vacuum" and "explosive decompression"

[sand delta]

True.

There is examples of Ukrainians doing suicide bombings, etc.

Or blowing themselves up to delay/kill Russians, etc.

[serene grove]

but many many more examples of ukrainians using drones to avoid blowing themselves up

which is why I'm on team ROV

[pure vine]

but its not an SOP, especially with little benefit

[sand delta]

U-boat “Bayraktar”

[pure vine]

I'm not on necessarily team ROV, but I'm on team "we need a bigger boat"

[serene grove]

we don't need a bigger boat if ROV tho :p

[pure vine]

either a sub pooping out saturated divers at depth, an ROV

[pure vine]

rovs are heavy, combined with explosives, equipment to support it

[serene grove]

did we actually figure out how heavy the explosives were? someone said 200kg but that sounds excessive

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaped_charge#/media/File:Defense.gov_photo_essay_110715-N-KG738-278.jpg

ugh bad preview, here

"A 40 lb (18 kg) Composition B 'formed projectile' used by combat engineers. The shaped charge is used to bore a hole for a cratering charge."

that would be enough to put a pretty big hole in...what was it, inch and a half steel?

[elfin cradle]

Read this, this explains why it wasnt a shaped charge.

https://sprengtechnik.de/sprengung-nordstream/

[harsh rock]

I still think the most feasible diving solution (and I've seen it mentioned in several article) is rebreathers.
Decreases time in deco stops ..... unlikely they would have run 'alpinist' style and they would probably have a couple of bail-out bottles in case of CCR failure.
Fresh scrubbers for each dive.
Pre-fabricated shaped charges made up to suit from information available on the pipeline.
The whole timeframe for each dive would be drastically decreased.
Still feels somewhat fanciful but worth considering.

[pure vine]

in theory the losharik sub could do it BUT it has been stuck in a shipyard

[pure vine]

rebreathers make sense, but even then the combination of deco+gas mixes would be a thing

i believe the residue could be from shaping the charges onboard

[harsh rock]

Yeah I would think that is a possibility

[serene grove]

I mean it's feasible if you had some real experts, but yeah it just seems a bit more complicated than it needs to be

[elfin cradle]

You dont need that big submarine.
A Priz class or smaller would be enough.

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Спасательные_глубоководные_аппараты_проекта_1855_«Приз»

[serene grove]

could be a lot smaller than that even IMO http://www.oilfieldwiki.com/wiki/ROV

this is still too big for andromeda but they make them smaller

[elfin cradle]

The amount of debris, concrete shattering, lengths of pipelines pushed into bottom and thrown away from the rest of the pipeline are signs that NS1 sites were not a shaped charge.

[serene grove]

are we sure the gas blowing everywhere didn't move the pipe around?

[elfin cradle]

If it was just a shaped charge you could use a hobby ROV for 10k euro.

[serene grove]

not quite, unless those hobby ones can go down to 80m these days

[pure vine]

fwiw a scorpio class ROV (2.5mx1mx1m) weighs over 1 ton

[pure vine]

maybe if it was a suicide drone?

[serene grove]

I was thinking go to the local oilfield services company and see what they have laying around

[sand delta]

There has been multiple expeditions down to the sites with BlueRobotic’s ROVs, on behalf of news organisations like Expressen, DR, BBC and others.

[pure vine]

tbh a suicide rov might be a bit farfetched because ive never heard of anything like that, ill ask hi sutton on twitter because he knows his stuff in this area

[pure vine]

but you need to carry the explosives

[elfin cradle]

The gas would not deform the pipe like this

https://sprengtechnik.de/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2022/09/NordStreamSonarbild-1536x1125.jpg

[sand delta]

Yep.

[elfin cradle]

Im thinking more of this, not a camera ROV as BlueRobotics.

https://www.gu.se/sites/default/files/styles/100_10_4_xlarge_1x/public/2020-06/V8 Offshore_1.jpg?h=40f8def8&itok=x9cuXvdK

[pure vine]

whats the weight of this

[serene grove]

oooooh wow neat https://bluerobotics.com/store/rov/bluerov2/ 300m depth, that's fancy

[serene grove]

that's...you could almost fit that onto the andromeda, if only there was a way to power it

[elfin cradle]

Cost like 10-15k euro.
http://www.symphotic.com/images/Saab Seaeye/FalconSize.png

[pure vine]

@sand delta likely knows better, but we have something like 1200kgs total cargo capacity, assuming 600ish wasted by crew leaves 600 for diving kit and explosives

[sand delta]

1800kg is the Andromeda’s capacity, iirc

Or well, the load capacity of a Bavaria Cruiser 50.

[pure vine]

https://www.saabseaeye.com/solutions/underwater-vehicles/compare

[elfin cradle]

specs here
http://www.symphotic.com/seaeye.htm

[pure vine]

IMO the only lightest with meaningful payload capacity would be too heavy for a bc50

[serene grove]

also the ROV can probably drag a pretty big thing of explosives behind it, even if it's one of the smaller ones

just put a magnet on the bomb and it'll stick to the pipe when it gets close enough lmao

do they still make limpet mines?

[pure vine]

not really, if it's over capacity it'll just sink really really fast

[pure vine]

yeah

[true barn]

If you really want to use something like an ROV to 80m depth, launched from a sailing yacht, it can't be one with a cord to the surface because of the yacht not being very good in remaining stationary?

[serene grove]

it's quite easy to make things neutrally boyant :p

it'll be stationary enough in good weather

[pure vine]

rovs are kinda the minimum necessary to work, i wouldnt really consider "modified rov" a plausible platform

[serene grove]

I forget the top speed under engine

[pure vine]

rovs already have pretty tight tolerances as is

[serene grove]

but it's enough to hold pretty well

nah, I mean like put some foam blocks on the explosives lol

[true barn]

okay, TIL: https://www.boatingmag.com/story/boats/how-to-anchor-with-no-anchor/

[pure vine]

and even then

this is the kit you need to deploy something like the cougar xt compact (60kgs payload)

if they managed to fit this into a bavaria cruiser

the only suspect would be Dr Who

[serene grove]

where was dr who in sept 2022???

does he have ties to ukraine?

[sand delta]

It’s a rented yacht, can’t really modify a rented yacht can you?

I suppose you could strap a small outboard on perhaps.

[serene grove]

eh it's a trolling motor you can just clamp it onto the edge thingy

[restive kelp]

For comparison: The pressure in the pipe alone is 10 Megapascal (100bar) (at a distance of 0m from the pipe).
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/10/3433

[true barn]

probably not, but we don't want to rule out anything right, we'll just add to the absurdity until this whole mess makes the slightest bit of sense

[pure vine]

i think ROV points to a boat that isnt the andromeda deploying

[sand delta]

True.

[true barn]

ROV capable of diving 80m w/ cargo + Andromeda = not possible in my books

[serene grove]

I feel like I could make it work with one of those bluerobotics ones but the oilfield ones are definitely too big yeah :/

wait what if you just took a big thing of explosives with a giant magnet on it and towed it behind you from the surface until it sticks to the pipe

if you strapped a camera to it you could even see what you were doing

[pure vine]

but that has like 1kg

[pure vine]

wouldnt work, submarines sink way too easily

[serene grove]

no submarine required

you could totally do this from the andromeda

[pure vine]

ohhh

[true barn]

are those pipes really magnetic?

[pure vine]

yeah but then you'd need the towing capability of a bavaria cruiser 50

[serene grove]

they're super thick steel with a few inches of concrete wrapping them

even if magnets didn't work you could just make it a grabby thingy

but they should be fine

[shy fulcrum]

First of all, I’m not a physics expert - so this is basically speculation. Anyway: I theorize that a weak joint in the pipeline left behind by the Akademik Chiernsky resulted in a leak 5 months later. The pressure inside the pipes is not constant - hence the over-engineering. But the Akademiks dubious track record (read Olivers substack article) resulted in sub-engineering - and sudden changes in pressure over time caused the leak. An engineer with expertise in sub-sea pipelaying could weigh in on this. The thing is that this scenario leaves little room for the Andromeda to navigate. The sabotage in the northern part would be a reaction to the ruptured pipe in the south. In the 17 hrs between rupture in south NS2 and the ones in the north, the Baltic was impossible to navigate, and any activity would be very suspicious. So for the sabotage part I’m guessing pre-placed explosives.

[pure vine]

even then, you have 75hp+wind to tow like 100kgs underwater

with drag and the grabby thing

[serene grove]

that will be no problem at all, you can make it as hydrodynamic as you like

hell even put a thruster on it

still less complicated than the diving theory

but small boats tow things all the time, like sonar things for fish hunting

it's super easy to move heavy things on/under water, that's why canals are a thing

[true barn]

I have not the slightest idea about the physics involved with gas pipes, but would it be possible to suddenly increase the pressure to the extent of weak spots bursting?

[serene grove]

if the pipe was welded+cased badly then sure anything is possible

and from what I know about metal fractures, it could totally be possible that an explosion further weakened an existing bad joint

[sand delta]

I believe it took 300 million euros worth of gas to bring Nordstream 2 up to pressure

[pure vine]

but weight wise, this would be heavy

and the more you modify the more it weighs

[serene grove]

you can make it as heavy or as light as you like

it's underwater

just add life jackets lmao

give it a cute lil lift balloon

hell you could even give it ballast tanks and air cylinders if you wanted to be fancy

[velvet rain]

I'm pretty sure you cannot cause sudden pressure changes in a system like that. You are limited by what the turbines on the Russian side can do.

[true barn]

I have the same feeling. yep

[pure vine]

tweeted at hi sutton, waiting on his response

[serene grove]

also @pure vine you are not wrong about submersibles liking to sink for no reason...I built one when I was in high school and had to fish it out of the local lake many times lmao

ended up just towing it most of the time

bouyancy is basically black magic

[sand delta]

lol

[pure vine]

in a way

it's like the opposite of rocket science

[serene grove]

oh I also dabbled in rocketry at the time, much easier

but I think towing a torpedo/mine behind a sailboat is about as easy as it gets when it comes to submersibles

like, once you've found the pipe, you just mark it on the GPS, back off a bit, roll the tow line out to the point that it should be in visible range, then make a pass at it

you can zig zag down the pipe while laying out more line and eventually SHUNK

so...come to think of it...is there anything pointing towards divers? do we actually have anything that indicates they brought all that gear on board?

I haven't really paid attention to the crew info but someone said 6 people, one "petite"?

[pure vine]

its more by elimination i guess

[elfin cradle]

5 men, 1 female.

[raw nexus]

What if a scooter or a drone was placed by the ship prior.

[pure vine]

wdym?

[raw nexus]

That the Andromeda didn't carry that

[serene grove]

you mean like a barge it could tow or something?

[raw nexus]

Have to translate that, wait

[serene grove]

I thought scooters were for like fishing in the everglades lol

you can't take the ones I'm thinking of out into the blue water, not gonna work out

[raw nexus]

I didn't think of that but what if the Minerva Julie placed equipment

[pure vine]

it could be a small dsv but it wouldn't change much, there's only so much compression/decompression you can do

[pure vine]

the andromeda is too weak

[serene grove]

so like, as a general rule, any small/mid sized sailboat is going to be perfectly capable of towing another boat of a similar size

I have literally done it before with a 30 footer

it was not fun...shroud on the other boat snapped, mast went over, sail filled up with water...but the towing was the easy part :p

it's not the weight, it's the drag...so like a current or headwind is going to hit you a bit harder but you're still gonna get where you're going unless you're towing a parachute

but if someone was towing a barge around with an ROV+tender gear on it people would have noticed I think

also I like this idea because it's the first one so far that doesn't give me intense "no I want a bigger boat" vibes

[nimble gull]

Stupid question maybe: but what purpose would blowing up the same NS2 line again have? It was already leaking hard at that point right? Hard to think it was intentional, but equally hard to believe it was a mistake.

[serene grove]

speculation about motives is fun but I guess it rarely leads anywhere super productive hahaha

but I guess in general the more blowed up something is the harder it is to fix lol

[sand delta]

Alternative theory, it’s hard to identify which pipeline is which underwater.

“Was it the left one or the right one”

[pure vine]

there's like an 80km distance between where both lines were blown up

[serene grove]

yeah they should have color coded them or something

[true barn]

#1072947857654554624 message

[velvet rain]

"Dammit guys, I told you we should've stopped and asked for directions!"

[shy fulcrum]

They are 100 meters apart, easily seen from the surface.

[serene grove]

am I the only one who heard that each pipeline has two pipes

about 100 meters apart

but then the two different pipeline routes are far apart in some places

did I dream that or something

[sand delta]

That’s correct

[serene grove]

so then it would make sense to blow up each one twice

or at least once and then the damage would maybe hit the one next to it as well?

[nimble gull]

Really? You sure about that? This from Oliver Alexander's substack.

[nimble gull]

Yeah that's my question, I can't really wrap my head around it from any perspective.

[little zinc]

you dont see anything from the surface, dive visibility is 5-10m in the baltic

[shy fulcrum]

I meant instruments (fish finders etc) obviously.

[true barn]

coming back to the location... never stated this, but it's weird that the cluster explosions happened just at the DK EEZ border.

like "we'd have liked to be closer to Bornholm, but EEZ..."

[shy fulcrum]

The Minerva Julie was also careful not to breach the EEZ - standard procedure for a tanker. For a sabotage team it means the Danish Coast Guard stays put, I guess.

[true barn]

sure, but literally kissing their territory at the same time

[tired monolith]

boats who frequently travel there prob have a good gauge on how far they would have to take it to attract extra attention, I would imagine

considering its normalized that Russia push boundaries in the area frequently and they just send military to greet them a merchant ship pushing the boundaries a little doesnt sound like something that would put anyone on high alert

[elfin cradle]

Less risky to do it in Swedish EEZ as they are not in NATO vs DK.
Still dont explain why one is inside DK EEZ.

[vocal violet]

Is there a map of sea depth and the pipes?

[tired monolith]

yeah def less of a worry currently in Fin and Swedish waters if anyone were worried about NATO stuff. But again, in current situation it seems noone really have an interest in making a big deal about it, so dont know even if its that risky. UA would have the most to lose if it impacted the support, but I see a lot of theorizing lately that thats also a thing that might play into it - that it might be why the leaks are coming now, that it wasnt as important to protect UA from the rumors anymore and might even be beneficial to divert attention

[elfin cradle]

Also the points where it were exploded is the deepest points of the pipeline. If they wanted to avoid to poke the NATO bear, and have an easier operation, they could have done it somewhere else.

[tired monolith]

also a section where its the thinnest from what been mentioned before, I dont know if anyone mapped what other alternative locations they might have used, though?

if they wanted to his specificially where it was the thinnest or otherwise least secured

[pure vine]

https://insightcrime.org/news/underwater-drone-would-have-secretly-delivered-cocaine-to-europe/

not necessarily about NS, but maybe something like this could come into play?

[velvet rain]

I can try to make one later, if nobody can find one.

[tired monolith]

depth alone makes it easier to believe sub or drone, certainly would end up in more logical and "easier" to arrange solutions if you have the gear

[serene grove]

I don't think finding a slightly thinner concrete sheath is going to offset the issues that come with more depth

[tired monolith]

but still need to find any proof of that if you want to get anywhere

[true barn]

stumbled upon this while looking for depth maps

https://fishing-app.gpsnauticalcharts.com/i-boating-fishing-web-app/fishing-marine-charts-navigation.html?title=Baltic+Sea+boating+app#8.42/55.3244/15.5169