Nord Stream Pipeline

[tired monolith]

if we presume that boat it needs 2,5m depth minimum roughly

[mossy star]

gotta get my kid from school so putting a pin on this for now, hopefully i don't get too far behind!

[true barn]

i‘m no expert in explosives, how would 500kg of tnt being moved from the cabin of a yacht to the bottom of the sea? reminder, that‘s how a 500kg bomb looks like these days

[junior moat]

could be 500kg TNT-equivalent yield of the explosive

doesn't have to mean the actual weight is 500kg

[velvet rain]

That's a 500 kg bomb, but it only contains about 300 kg of explosive material.

[velvet rain]

500 kg of TNT would be about 300 liters in volume.

[true barn]

so roughly 2 bathtubs

[velvet rain]

That's one thing I've been wondering about. I guess explosives for underwater applications would need to be contained in some kind "packaging". You wouldn't just transport two bathtubs full of explosive stuff. So why did the investigators find traces of explosives on a table on the boat? Why would there be any need to do work on the explosives while on the boat?

[modest basalt]

I was just about to ask: can anyone comment on what they think the “format” of the explosives would be? I’m not sure how else to word it. Like would they be limpet charges or some other kind of format?

[true barn]

yeah, as said, I have no idea about this, but I think there’s easier things in life than to detonate a huge amount of explosives under water, let alone in the middle of the sea.

with a 50 foot sailing yacht…

„Earlier this month, initial data gathered by Nord Stream AG revealed technogenic craters with a depth of 3-5 m on the seabed about 248 m apart from each other. The section of the pipe between the craters was destroyed, with fragments dispersed at least 250 m from the blast site. Analysis of the survey data continues.“

https://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/pipelines/article/14285943/nord-stream-explosions-gross-sabotage

[vocal violet]

TNT is just a measure, the explosive material would be more energy dense however

Is there any hints onto which explosive was used?

[velvet rain]

That opens up another interesting question. Packing the explosives up into smaller units probably wouldn't help that much with getting them down there without special equipment if decompression time is a limiting factor. You couldn't just go up and down an arbitrary number of times.

[true barn]

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1574750267119046656?s=46&t=xG85jhtgtdgjd67FF2RnGQ

H I Sutton (@CovertShores)

1. Circumstances
   The leak is near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099° in ~70 meters of water. This would be divable

2 things do make it suspicious:
a) It is just over 12 nautical miles from the Island in International waters
b) the EEZ here is disputed here (?)

Likes

1709

Retweets

250

Twitter · Sep 27, 2022, 1:18 PM

[modest basalt]

Definitely. And also if they didn’t divide the explosives up into smaller units (so each blast site was one bomb/delivery unit), then wouldn’t two divers have difficulty moving that much weight?

[velvet rain]

It should be possible to calculate some upper/lower bounds even without knowing the specific explosives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent#Relative_effectiveness_factor

[true barn]

"The pipes are at a depth of 70-80 metres and at those depths you use unmanned underwater vehicles," he added.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-russia-not-invited-nord-stream-investigation-2022-10-06/

[winter escarp]

Now that we have presumably found the yacht rented from a German boat rental company owned by 2 Germans - Did I miss what happened to the "Polish rental company owned by Ukrainians"?

[vocal violet]

I mean it because 1000 pounds of TNT doesn't have to translate to 1000 physical pounds and it could be some HE

But in any case this suggests access to some military or mining material, because I doubt they would put tons of fertiliser down there

[deft ice]

German security authorities believe massive explosive devices were detonated, each with a force of perhaps 500 kilograms of TNT, a conclusion that has been drawn from the seismic data.
This number likely includes the pressurised pipe bursting open.

[velvet rain]

The Polish company was the customer in the rental transaction, i.e. they rented from the German company.

[junior moat]

yes exactly. Polish company owned by Ukrainians rented the boat from German yacht charter company.

[winter escarp]

Oh I see, thank you

[velvet rain]

The Zeit article even said as much, just somewhat ambiguously phrased. Google Translate then went with the wrong option.

The original sentence was "Es soll sich um eine Jacht handeln, die von einer Firma mit Sitz in Polen angemietet worden sei, die offenbar zwei Ukrainern gehört." which got machine translated to "It is said to be a yacht rented from a company based in Poland, apparently owned by two Ukrainians.".
The German "von" can mean both "from" and "by" though.

[true barn]

this whole story only adds up if it’s possible to handle a sufficient amount of explosive material under the given circumstances. i‘m trying to find more information on high yield underwater explosives, but it‘s hard if you don’t understand the basic math and physics involved.

[junior moat]

here you can find RE-factor of a lot of types of explosives https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Relative_effectiveness_factor

i.e. RE-Faktor 2 means 2x as 'strong' as TNT

[true barn]

with the same weight or what?

[junior moat]

yes

[true barn]

okay, they list density as well, sweet

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1633577381679058946

Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK)

Wieck auf dem Darß seems to be an error. The harbormaster is interviewed here. He knows nothing and suspects it is a mix up. It does not seem like he has talked to any police or authorities prior to this interview.

https://t.co/cEGq8uUwll

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 9:16 PM

From our Aric: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/1633578238302732289

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

The mention of Wieck (where the yacht allegedly went on Sept. 7) was especially bizarre in the Zeit story, as it's a very shallow harbor used for emergencies. More on this apparent mistake or mix-up here.

https://t.co/OD8JJDYXjM

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 9:19 PM

[harsh rock]

The likelihood of secreting a UUV onto a yacht is fairly slim I'd say.
It would be possible to dive at those depths using something like the Poseiden Se7en and pre-made shaped charge cutters (the EOD stuff is way above my pay-grade and it would be great to hear from someone with experience in that field)..... you'd really have to have your timing nailed down though.
I'm not sure of the surface currents at that location but it would be possible to keep a small tender over the dive site with an electric motor that has GPS capabilities .....they auto adjust to keep a small vessel in position constantly adjusting to a waypoint....I've only used them on a kayak but presume they would be capable of setting a small inflatable tender on a position.... either that or the tender crew need to make constant adjustments.

[hollow remnant]

Going through that list Composition H6 could be a likely candidate since it's primarily used in naval mines, depth charges etc. Also has a stated yield of 1.35 times that of TNT

[split spruce]

the Bavaria 50 / Mola 13-5 Rostock seems to be this one here. Pier G Spot 39

[hollow remnant]

I'll try asking a friend who actually does work in the EOD field and see what he has to say on possible explosives and how they could be used

[daring flume]

a swim platform would probably be desirable if you were diving off a sailing yacht

[harsh rock]

Those recent Bavaria 50s have three windows down just above the water line... can anyone make out those on the picture of the potential vessel?

[harsh rock]

There are some cool old papers on shaped charges in the offshore petroleum industry.... I was checking one out from 1966 yesterday.... old school - article was called "Explosive Technology - A new tool in offshore operations".

[sand delta]

https://www.sailionian.com/charter-yachts/bavaria-c50/

[true barn]

„As a Navy Diver (known in the Navy as Clearance Diver), you'll work with a team to complete diving missions and operations to depths of up to 80 metres, from a ship or ashore. Diving operations could include neutralising and disposing underwater explosives, search missions, underwater engineering and maintenance, tactical operations, underwater demolitions, and more.“

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/navy/navy-diver

[sand delta]

Just as a word of warning in case this is pointed out later, the 80m of anchor chain would by no means be enough to hold the boat in position

It’s not the anchor that holds the boat in position, it’s the weight of the anchor chain you’ve paid out. The anchors simply stops the chain flailing around

It’s annoying maths, with that amount of anchor chain, you’d probably be able to anchor in up to 10-15 metres.

[junior moat]

I think you might be correct
that boat does leave from the port on Sept 7 between 1200 and 1400 according to the webcam....
it's just weird that it's Sept 7, not Sept 6 .. but maybe they rented a day earlier and only left the next day or something

[sand delta]

iirc someone cited a source saying it could've been an EFP (explosively formed penetrator) which makes sense for bursting a pipeline.

EFPs take many forms but don't necessarily go out fully assembled. the ones I've seen use C4 and an EFP cap that essentially becomes a high velocity projectile.

there were lots of these used on various sides in Afghanistan.

Theoretically, why would you necessarily need a team on the surface?

[little zinc]

this was written in the times: "the procurement of shaped explosive charges only available to the gas and oil industry with a specific licence and at great cost."

[sand delta]

^

What I mean by that is, you could have them drop them, then they continue on with the understanding they come back to the position maybe 2 or however many hours later.

shape charge. strong possibility.

[harsh rock]

I was checking out these Halliburton charges yesterday

https://www.halliburton.com/en/products/maxforce-frac-perforating-charges

[sand delta]

oh nice : )

remove cap, insert explosive material.

[true barn]

so basically the blast is really only that strong because of the bursting pipeline?

[velvet rain]

Wouldn't that require a certain distance from the pipeline?

[sand delta]

depends on the device. some are setup in stand-off distance, sure. in military theater.

these fracking variants might be close contact. haven't seen these before.

[junior moat]

I think we may have to split this channel into two - one for yacht-spotting, one for explosives .. otherwise will be a nightmare finding relevant info later 😂

[sand delta]

@vocal violet to your earlier question, the documents @harsh rock linked variously mention RDX, HMX, and PETN. all reasonable choices here.

RDX iirc appears in a lot of exploratory and construction work.

[vocal violet]

Yep, I'm familiar with RDX

[sand delta]

Erredece has a back story we need to hear

😛

[hollow remnant]

Found a study on shaped charges and EFPs underwater which stated "The results
showed that the damage of shaped charge projectiles to structures underwater was more
severe than that in the air."

[sand delta]

makes sense.

[vocal violet]

Nah, that I have heard from it before and its use in construction, nothing fancy

The only plastic explosive I've had in my hands is Goma 2 and it was as a kid in a dog training center 😛

[sand delta]

lol 😛

[dire canyon]

Yes, because the energy doesn’t dissipate like in air I assume (water is incompressible).

[true barn]

first day in this discord. you’re a great bunch of people. see you another day 👋

[rustic bay]

Hug you later!

[velvet rain]

I'm not clear how shaped charges and EFPs would result in the infamous missing 50 m of Nord Stream 1. Would that be caused by the pressure of the gas after the structural integrity of the pipes is compromised by the holes?

[sand delta]

Nord Stream designed the pipeline with three different design pressure sections. (220, 200 and 177.5 bar) and pipe wall thicknesses (34.4, 30.9 and 26.8 mm.

Likewise in NS2’s case

Nord Stream 2, which is not in operation, was nonetheless filled with 177 million cubic meters of natural gas — worth €358 million at current prices — to bring pipeline pressure up to 300 bar in anticipation of being allowed to flow. Germany froze approval of the pipeline after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

[velvet rain]

Apparently the explosions happened in the 177.5 bar/26.8 mm section.

[sand delta]

The pressure of water at 80m is 130psi or so, or about 9 bar.

So a significant change in pressure of course.

[velvet rain]

I have no idea whether that pressure differential would be sufficient for this degree of damage.

[hollow remnant]

Okay so my friend got back to me about the explosives. He stated that 20-30kg shaped charge of RDX would be sufficient to blow open a pipe sitting at 80m. He also stated that you'd ideally want to bring double that (or even more) to be certain the explosives did their job given the nature of what's being done etc.

[vocal violet]

So something like 50x3kg of RDX minimum?

[harsh rock]

What would be the rode at that depth?.....it would have to be at least 400m of rope wouldn't it?

[sand delta]

If not more.

[harsh rock]

5-8 times... depending on weather?

[sand delta]

Yep.

[vocal violet]

I'm seeing that RDX has 1.5 the explosive weight of TNT so if 1000 pounds of TNT were used, then that would be 666 pounds or around 300 kg

[sand delta]

I worked on an AtoN tender vessel and for deep sea anchorage (and I only recall doing this up to about 50-60m) we were dropping hundreds of metres of anchor chain.

[vocal violet]

So 100kg per explosion, assuming it was 3 charges exploded (there never was evidence of unexploded material right?)

[harsh rock]

I see a rope purchase at a chandlery in someones future.... or it lends more strength to the hypothesis that the dive was conducted from a tender

[sand delta]

Yea, not a chance such a small vessel would be able to anchor out there.

[vocal violet]

That's a good point

[sand delta]

For example, the type of chain that boat is dropping might have chain shackles the size of your fingers at best

When a ship is dropping anchor chain, a shackle is about as thick as your arm.

[vocal violet]

And then the question is the origin of the explosives themselves, if the 1000 pounds of TNT figure is correct, that's 300kg of RDX total (100kg per explosion) if I'm calculating things right, now the question is where would they obtain so much explosive. It feels like way too much to not be noticed if stolen, so either it was somehow provided illegally or something is way off

[harsh rock]

So the weather window would have to be very favourable for launching a tender and equipment loading offshore and keeping a tender on position during a dive

[sand delta]

Just for context, anchor chain on merchant ship vs anchor chain of a small-medium yacht

That’s about 3 shackles on the left.

Or about 75ish metres.

[harsh rock]

Yeah I grew up in a port and my uncle was a tug captain.... anchor chains on big vessels are massive

[modest basalt]

Sorry just to clarify: There were 3 recorded explosions, and then 3 or 4 leaks?

[sand delta]

Safe to say, that little yacht isn’t anchoring.

3 recorded explosions and then 4 leaks yea.

One leak in the Danish EEZ down much further south

[harsh rock]

Yup.... just pondering whether a tender crew member would manually adjust positioning or they'd use something like a Minn Kota which would hold them on position handsfree.

[sand delta]

And then 3 leaks clustered together

In the Swedish eez

The Danish one was actually quite close to Danish territorial waters, just a little bit outside the 12nmi limit of Bornholm.

To be honest, if we assume the vessel was in Christiansø at all, the hypothesis that it was launching its attempts from there and going back and forth seem a little more conceivable.

Obviously it makes the timeline a lot more compact.

[ashen halo]

(on my backup Discord account because i forgot the login to my other on this laptop lol)

[sand delta]

Fake Aric

How do we know you’re the real Aric

[ashen halo]

great find!!

[harsh rock]

Welcome to the Server.... please read the #rules and feel free to tell us about yourself in #introductions

[ashen halo]

thanks 🙂

[sand delta]

Because I mean as we know

The Minerva was over the sites until the 13th.

I’m going to imagine these commandos are aware enough to use MarineTraffic to scout out the location.

That only really leaves between the 13th and the 26th to have done it.

And if we know it was in Christiansø smack bang in the middle from the 18-20th.

[ashen halo]

so this is the only change in the area where the bavaria 50s were docked, i think?

one guy disappears here on sep 7, as someone pointed out here earlier

[sand delta]

Where is the difference sorry

[lime eagle]

A vessel called the Hoogtij (MMSI: 211540700) pulled out from quay E at about 12:10 on Sep 7

[modest basalt]

I see a boat disappearing just right from the centre

[ashen halo]

that's it then!

well, the guy who disappeared, not the suspect boat 🙂

[junior moat]

Hoogtij is currently located in Wieck / Greifswald ?

[lime eagle]

Ah — hang on — it pulled in, sorry, I looked for movement, but wasn’t discriminating enough…

[lime eagle]

Ah — hang on — it pulled in, sorry, I looked for movement, but wasn’t discriminating enough…

[junior moat]

I thought these sailing yachts don't have AIS trackers ?

I can still activate another free 7 days on MarineTraffic, if that yacht had an AIS tracker I'll definitely do that 😄

[sand delta]

Not required to either have or even if they choose to have it, not required to broadcast.

[lime eagle]

Forgive my taking a photo of a screen, but some do — this is the two hours around the photo you asked about earlier

[sand delta]

On small yachts, their VHF radio might have a AIS feature with it though, since AIS is just a transmission on VHF 87A and 88B iirc.

[sand delta]

Heatmap?

[junior moat]

hm... interesting !

[lime eagle]

They’re all static, except the Hoogtij, which parks up just left of the purple text

[sand delta]

Steg F?

[lime eagle]

Just the actual pings…

[sand delta]

A German flagged vessel with a Dutch name.

Hoogtij = High Tide.

[junior moat]

okay, activated my free trial .. so it only left on Sept 13th, I don't think it's the correct one

[lime eagle]

The two on quay F are the Summer (MMSI: 211322440) and KARLA (211266520)

[sand delta]

Summer was deep into a European canal journey by quite early October.

Last ping puts it near Potsdam, Brandenburg on the 7th October.

And Karla was in "Warnow-Werkstatt Paap + Sohn Schiffs- und Yachtservice GmbH" in Rostock by November 28th.

[harsh rock]

Presuming German flagged?

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?asset_type=vessels&columns=flag,shipname,photo,recognized_next_port,reported_eta,reported_destination,current_port,imo,ship_type,show_on_live_map,time_of_latest_position,lat_of_latest_position,lon_of_latest_position,length,notes&ship_type_in|in|Pleasure Craft|ship_type_in=9&flag_in|in|Germany|flag_in=DE&recognized_next_port_in|begins|ROSTOCK|recognized_next_port_in=382&length_between|range|length_between=0,17

[sand delta]

hmm

What ship we trying to identify.

[junior moat]

YEMAYA (MMSI: 211341280) could be the one. It left on Sept 6th to the other side where cars can park, then left again on Sept 7th, and immediately loses AIS ... then reappears Sept 10th in Stralsund only to afterwards turn off AIS once again immediately

[ashen halo]

Look for Bavarian Cruiser 50s

or 51s. Everything else a dead end, basically

[harsh rock]

Just looking for potential candidates ... could be muddying the water more than anything else at this stage

[junior moat]

well I just checked which ones leave at Sept 6th (with AIS enabled)

[sand delta]

Would anyone be interested in being cheeky

and calling MOLA as an interested charterer.

🫣 For the Bellingcat Yacht Meetup of course.

I'm curious, what does the Anz. mean in the MOLA table?

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafenresidenz-Rostock-Warnemuende.html

I know a little German, but it honestly escapes me.

I'm assuming number.

In which case they've 1 brand new C50 from 2023, and 2 Cruiser 50s from 2012/2013.

[junior moat]

yes "Anz." means "Anzahl"

[sand delta]

Actually sorry, a C50/51 is about 15m, didn't their reporting say 11m?

[sand delta]

Ah, me dumb lol

[tired monolith]

#1072947857654554624 message

[sand delta]

Ah gotcha, thanks. I'm confusing myself at this point.

[tired monolith]

easy when you consume so much information over a short timespan and a lot of it is very similar

[sand delta]

https://www.deutsche-flagge.de/en/german-flag/registration/ships-register/ships-register#Responsible

Recreational craft (i.e. motor and sailing yachts) get either registered in an inland-shipping register or a shipping register of sea-going ships depending on size and trading area of the ship. From 15m hull length a registration in the shipping regiser for sea-going ships and from 10 tons water displacement in an inland-shipping register is mandatory.

Given it's recorded as 14,99m, this could be super annoying lol.

[tired monolith]

sounds like its specifically built to not go past that specific limit

[sand delta]

Yep.

https://twitter.com/_Twoliver/status/1566347519554191360/photo/1

Oliver (@_Twoliver)

Tschüss Warnemünde 😘

Twitter · Sep 4, 2022, 8:48 AM

The MOLA Yacht charter place is in this image.

[ashen halo]

A local told me that the marker for the MOLA charter place is just some bathrooms

Not an office

So sadly not a great indicator

[sand delta]

Ah okay.

Just for use in trying to figure out where images where taken from.

[ashen halo]

maybe they were wrong then 🙂

[deft crescent]

I mean the one on the right clearly has some life jackets hanging in it and may just be used for storage but the etched windows on the building in the left make me think there’s some kind of office inside

[tired monolith]

might not be an actual office but more storage and mainenance area and that they do handover stuff through the hotel or something

[harsh rock]

Their head office is in Breege ... the individual marinas will have smaller charter offices

[next lagoon]

You'd be surprised by how much professsional planners run into this exact issue. A lot of the major CA/CI failures from the 50s-70s involved impact assessments that either didn't give or gave a conclusion we'd kind of bat our eyes at now. Not entirely unfeasible a random non-professional would run into that issue, and, that itself happens a lot. Funny modern example are the guys who attempted the absolute most braindead infiltration attempt into Venezuela ever.

[sand delta]

That Venezuela episode tho. (Topic for a diff channel.)

[pallid moat]

switching between the two of these in gif form for comparison

[sand delta]

Are we saying these are the two 2012/13 C50s?

3 centre-line dark tinted windows

Then a front 2 tinted roof window wide window

Admittedly, now not so sure about the southern one.

[tired monolith]

the furthest one, the other one is smaller

[harsh rock]

Southern one is a 36 footer - northern one is a 50 footer

[sand delta]

So the Northern one is most likely a Cruiser 50.

Hmm

[harsh rock]

A couple of Bavaria 50s/51s from the Mola head office (Breege) photos on Google Maps.
There are two boat names visible and these could be noted as I presume these charter vessels would move between the marinas where Mola has charter offices

Lissy III races in the ARC and has logs here
https://www.worldcruising.com/logsarticle.aspx?page=S637973715092267540&ArchiveID=5&CategoryID=192&ItemID=

I think Lissy III can be struck off.... the Bavarian 51s (or at least the newer versions) have one long window and two smaller aft windows

[deft crescent]

This other photo of the Susi Sorglos shows a long window on the side of the cabin and a single skylight window which I think means it is neither a Cruiser 50 or a Cruiser 51.

[sand delta]

After all this effort

I seriously hope we’ve got the right company lol

🫣

[thick crag]

have a sibling who freedives, can find plenty of pics of more people on smaller boats on his Instagram 😛

edit: oh shoot, I missed a lot of chat history. disregard.

[harsh rock]

51 I think

[deft crescent]

While the cockpit area looks pretty much exactly the same, the front of the boat shown in the other photo and even the width of the boat looks very different from the photos and videos I've found of Cruiser 51s

The photo of the Susi Sorglos from the bow also doesn't show any side windows

I know the image on the right is just a render, but to me the Susi Sorglos looks much more like a Cruiser 34

[raw nexus]

Morning. So now you know that the blue boat we watched on webcam isn't the one we search for?

[deft crescent]

Yeah, it's a few hundred messages deep now, but Der Spiegel published some additional stuff that allowed it to be narrowed down to either a Bavaria Cruiser 50 or a Bavaria Cruiser 51 rented from Mola Yachts in Rostock. We are now trying to find the names of these vessels. Aric has a good summary here: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1633567163889098757

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

This cuts it down dramatically.

https://t.co/ujMKYbq3VN

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 8:35 PM

[raw nexus]

Ok thanks, Thomas

[deft crescent]

Also, based on the price from the Der Spiegel Article it's probably a Cruiser 50, and not a Cruiser 51

[raw nexus]

The charter company is for sure?

Don't see it in the article

[deft crescent]

It's not certain but based on the data points from the article - 15+ meter yacht, 11 people, 5 berths, diesel engine, 3000 euros to rent, from Rostock, a cruiser 50 rented from Mola is the only yacht and company we have found that fits all of that criteria

[raw nexus]

Ok I see how you got there. Don't forget that charter companies don't automatically rent via the port page, they can do it private also or use other pages or have the boat nearby and change location when needed

[whole thunder]

Good morning as well and thanks for the summary @deft crescent

[harsh rock]

There looks like there was a change in window configuration at some stage but I need to dig into that more.

Mola have 50s from 2008 and 2012/13 with the 5 window config

As an aside, this is a Bavarian 50 Cruiser from above (2007 model) if you were looking to shape match on aerial imagery

[deft crescent]

Where did you find that they have a 2008 Cruiser 50? Looking through both the archived Mola page from last year and the one from this year the only Cruiser 50s I saw that they have are the 2012 and 2013 ones in Rostock, along with the shallow water C50 that they got this year.

[whole thunder]

If its the right ship, the waterdepth in wieck/Darß doesn't fit.
Maybe it is a mix up with another wieck or they didn't go on land but achor in the lagoon before.

Also a boat of this size you can't take down the mast without a crane. In order to get to wieck/Darß they would have used the bridge through opening hours
See here:

#1072947857654554624 message

[deft crescent]

I think Aric suggested earlier that it might be Wiek which is much larger and deeper and doesn't have overhead obstacles to entry.

[whole thunder]

Yeah I know there are talks about a mix up. Still would be weird by the journalists doing such a mistake on that explosive topic. I mean daily news yesterday evening showed pictures of wieck/Darß in TV, poor people living there must be called a lot right now 😂

[harsh rock]

You're right 2012/2013 and the shallow draft 2023 C50 .... I got my wires crossed and was looking at another boat out of Breege...mea culpa

[deft crescent]

I'm heading to sleep now so I don't have time to properly take a look at these, but here are some images from Google's old 45-degree feature showing what I'm much more confident in calling a Cruiser 50 now.

Also of the the entire row that Mola's building is on.

[whole thunder]

A boat of this size has at least a radio /fm-transceiver. If a boat has it on board, you need to have a license (SRC or higher) in order to rent such a thing. You must also have a Sportbootführerschein See. I used to sail with a similar boat and that one has AIS as well, even though its not mandatory to use it. However it should be possible to check if one of them used AIS ever at some point (if someone has an account at vesselfinder/ marinerraffic which allows looking si far back)

Sometimes people are stupid. Maybe the perpetrators forgot to turn it off at some point. It's a long shot but maybe worth a try

[raw nexus]

Maybe I have a translation error so Help me. Why was this company chosen, I have here mv charter who is an Agent for owners and they also rent the Bavaria Cruiser 50

[whole thunder]

For example
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:6301255/zoom:18

[whole thunder]

I think because this company doesn't rent in hohe dühne
https://www.mv-charter.de/ostsee/mecklenburg-vorpommern

[raw nexus]

They do

Warnemünde Höhe Düne is the same as Rostock , sidenote for English searchers

[hoary maple]

is this from Mola Yachts?

[whole thunder]

Oh weird, if you look at the map on the side it says a harbour more inland in direction of rostock.

I'm not going to be in Rostock for quite a while now. :/
The boats from mola aren't there right now but probably going to water soon because its already mid if march

[whole thunder]

No, it's MV-Charter

[raw nexus]

MV Yacht. Mecklenburg Vorpommern

[whole thunder]

That's why they are asking why we choose Mola as the company to be.

Maybe wait until @mossy star is awake, he is able to give an answer I guess

[hoary maple]

Oh, ok

[raw nexus]

I think Oliver said Mola.

[junior moat]

this journalist from the team says at 1:14 that their research is based among other things on automatic ship positioning data, so maybe/probably AIS (or some other system) was enabled
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Nord-Stream-Anschlaege-Was-wir-wissen,audio1335248.html

[whole thunder]

Interesting interview, thanks

[rocky wolf]

Provided they haven't used AIS-spoofing equipment onboard

Probably wouldn't be a sailingboat for an operation like this. Relying totally on windspeed to get this done. Most sailing capable boats have engines but cruise-speed. Much safer to use one with a powerful engine, especially if you're transporting 1000 pounds of explosives as well as crew onboard

[split spruce]

from what i get, an article mentioned a 15m+, 5 cabin vessel suited for 11 people departed from Rostock and Mola is the only company offering a yacht like this. The "Bavaria Cruiser 50 | Mola 13-5 Rostock". Its located at this marina at G39 and left on 7.9.2022. btw there is a company in Rostock that has a free (with payed upgrades) AIS tracking app. its called "Fleetmon". maybe that can help

[whole thunder]

Marinetraffic has a 7 day free Trial with 365 days playback time. Maybe I'm doing it on the weekend.

A lot of pleasure crafts in the area. If we don't have a name of the ship, it will be the search for a needle in a haystack

[junior moat]

yes marinetraffic you have to provide a credit-card for the 7-day free trial, you can immediately cancel afterwards, and still have the full 7 days access ... you can start 7-day free trial for the 'professional' plan and another for the 'satellite' plan, makes it 14 days in total

[rocky wolf]

Keep in mind though.. Ukrainian national doesn't equate to someone who isn't pro-RU. If he has deep enough pockets to bankroll the operation, RU could still be involved and have ordered/requested the operation for the same reasons you describe. Would be interesting to dig out who this individual/businessman is.

[dire canyon]

Sure, lots of unknowns. This whole thing is very weird.

[hoary maple]

https://www.unternehmensregister.de/ureg/result.html;jsessionid=41177572585DD69A9A83C253B66605F6.web02-1

Thats the business registry for Mola yachts btw

I’m gonna take a look through it in case theres anything interesting

doubt anything particularly worthwhile comes up, but who knows

[junior moat]

the thing I'm wondering .. why don't the journalists who did the research just provide us with the name of the yacht, and the name of that polish company 🤔 instead dropping hints here and there for us to pick up 😁

[rocky wolf]

Yes, unless Maxim has spoken to the bankroller himself

[whole thunder]

I guess it's probably under data protection laws during ongoing investigation.
Don't wanna dox people

[junior moat]

yeah, possible I guess

[whole thunder]

Am I willing to provide my credit card details ❓

[junior moat]

seems a pretty legit company to me, so I did. Haven't heard any complaints about them anywhere

I currently on my second 7-day free trial ... but also wondering if they pick up all AIS-B ("hobby boats") signals always.. unclear to me

their pricing is clearly geared towards professional fleet managers etc, not bellingcat hobbyists 😄

[rocky wolf]

I know some people who are trying to work out a way to mitigate the effects of AIS spoofing. Any specific question for them ?

[junior moat]

@whole thunder there is also https://www.maritimeoptima.com/shipatlas which I wanted to check out since it seems to offer some free access to historic data per account, also the pricing is something I might be willing to pay, unlike marinetraffic
but haven't really looked into it too much yet

[whole thunder]

I guess it's only commercial/ bigger vessels.

All the pleasure crafts I see in marinetraffic aren't shown in this one

[junior moat]

👍 ah okay, makes sense

[rocky wolf]

https://www.yachtico.com/charters-3lcj

3000 EUR/week, needs captain/license and 15 meters

[sand delta]

This picture is from the port of Christiansø posted on Facebook by the 18th of September. Interesting because we know that Danish police asked for pictures and information about boats in that perioid. I noticed this boat (the red ring). Could that be the cruiser?

Seems too small.. Perhaps.

[hoary maple]

ye, too small and doesn’t match the pictures

i don’t think anyway

that picture only has one big window

compare it to the others

MOLA yachting is a german registered company

not polish

so either they’ve got the wrong company, or we’ve got the wrong company

even if all of the stuff thats been found is accurate

[tidal knoll]

There are two companies. The Polish company rented a boat from the German company.

[hoary maple]

bruuuuh

[raw nexus]

I think we should restart without Mola

[hoary maple]

i knew i must have been missing something

[raw nexus]

There was an translation error

[hoary maple]

its the company that rents the boats out though, right?

[raw nexus]

Sorry I have discord glitches. Gave to restart

[raw nexus]

You have different options to rent a boat there, not only the port page. There's charters that don't use it. Also we saw that some boats are listed in Warnemünde Höhe Düne, what is the same port, but maybe falls through the search bar. I also found examples of private owners renting through Instagram and Motorboot webpages.

That's why I asked multiple times why it's for sure that it is this company, a post that comes not from this group but Oliver Alexander.

Also not all boats are listed at the moment, they're not listed on pages when they are booked or in the winter place.

[hoary maple]

From what I’ve read in here, we’re basing it on the description of the boat from that article, and the one listed by Mola is most accurate

theres probably a lot of nuance than that, but with what we have, it seems to be right

[raw nexus]

I get that, but it's not just this one company. For example
https://www.bavaria-yacht-charter.de/segelyachten/ab-warnemuende-rostock/bavaria-cruiser-50-13

[hoary maple]

wasnt there stuff saying it was out of port in the right time frame aswell?

[raw nexus]

You can see that the prize belongs to the season it's rented. A point also important when searching for the boat.

[hoary maple]

idk, im still just reading into it myself

from this channel

[hushed bay]

Really good work on this, everyone! Love to see what you're all doing here.

[raw nexus]

Yeah, it's just when it comes from outside we can't discuss and thats grrr

[raw nexus]

Pay us lol

[hoary maple]

pay sara lmao

https://twitter.com/kennardmatt/status/1633440363611402240?s=46&t=IgUTHbFY6RP4zX5AvinALg

Matt Kennard (@kennardmatt)

The Nord Stream pipeline bombing was a major terrorist attack in heart of Europe.

If it had been blown up by Russia, Bellingcat would have launched a huge investigation.

When Bellingcat don't look, it's a strong signal that it was a US, UK, NATO, or allied operation.

Likes

4859

Retweets

1218

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 12:11 PM

little does he know

[split spruce]

aren't they all just hustling the same handful of boats that belong to Mola?

[tidal knoll]

He does. He's just trying to score points.

[rocky wolf]

Could be, tried to find the name/names of the boats offered but unfortunately they don't offer that up on the for-rent-portals.

Is there not some kind of ship/boat-registry in Germany?

[junior moat]

yes there is – we discussed this and vessels under 15m don't have to register apparently

[rocky wolf]

So a Cruiser 50 would be an edge-case or perhaps required to register?

[sand delta]

Why would we restart without Mola? It’s the best lead right now, and until other companies emerge that fit the presented story it’s only fair to pull that thread as far as possible?

[junior moat]

yeah, maybe they're specifically designed not to fall into the 'next bigger' category with more bureaucracy involved etc

[rocky wolf]

if it is Mola then based on "experts" in media, the boat wouldn't be shorter than say 13 meters

[whole thunder]

You can filter on marinetraffic for example, assuming this thing has an AIS, but there are 2700 German flagged pleasurecrafts between 14 and 16m in Germany.

[rocky wolf]

This webpage has more details on ships owned by Mola
https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafenresidenz-Rostock-Warnemuende.html

[whole thunder]

You could filter for latest sea area or destination port but this hasn't to be in Germany necessarily

Even then not all entries having pictures.

[rocky wolf]

Mola would make sense since they also have operations in Poland according to their webpage

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafen-Swinemuende-Polen.html

(as well as Denmark)

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafen-Juelsminde.html

[whole thunder]

In the article from tagesschau (original source) it says the boat was given back to the charterer uncleaned.

I mean, you do an clandestine, super secret operation with in some what highly skilled people, but you dont clean the cabin at all or at least the table where you prepared/stored the explosives?!

[harsh rock]

"Yachts operated for commercial activities such as charter must hold a registration allowing them to operate commercially under its flag state rules."..... according to The Charter of Yachts in the European Union

[red ridge]

I'm giving a look into this, wind was apparently variable for this period (wind at Rostock, September, in knots, https://www.windguru.cz/archive.php?id_spot=244&id_model=3&date_from=2023-02-09&date_to=2023-03-09)

[acoustic storm]

This may have already been tested by someone with PRO on marinetraffic; if there is a date when the boat arrived in the Danish harbor, it should be possible that AIS was used after it was discovered and moved from there? If so, is it not possible to make a database comparison of the boats that can be found in the German port, around Sept 6 with those that were in Denmark according to the date from the article?

[whole thunder]

Yeah webcam pictures of that day also showing calm sea

[rocky wolf]

I could be totally wrong of course but I imagine this to be a professional operation and they would probably have a time-frame to operate within. Do we know if they "jumped ship" in Denmark and rented a vehicle in Denmark for transportation? Did they get picked up in Denmark or did they go by boat back to Rostock ? Any mention of details with regards to the aftermath?

[whole thunder]

@junior moat works on it I guess.

[whole thunder]

Nope, not as far as I know. Only info, that the boat was given back to the charterer uncleaned.

As the company has more stations maybe their "last harbour" was somewhere else.

[junior moat]

yeah, on marinetraffic I don't see any boats arriving on Christiansø between Sept 16th and 18th that look relevant, and/or have been in Rostock around Sept 6th

my guess is that the boat simply didn't have AIS ..

[whole thunder]

Some kind of tracking must be applicable because one of the journalists told, that they did it.

What about ships going rostock-east to (one of the possible) wiecks

[junior moat]

as far as I understand the boat will still be able to be monitored for its position through its MMSI and then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_selective_calling ... but this data would maybe be accessible for investigators through port authorities, but not marinetraffic database

[whole thunder]

Time frame is smaller, so 6-7th

DSC controllers normally only send position data in case of emergency as far as I know.

[rocky wolf]

Satellite imagery perhaps?

[whole thunder]

At least not maxar or planet. Someone checked already, but it was cloudy IIRC

[tidal knoll]

Yes, Giancarlo mentioned it, I think.

[rocky wolf]

Could this be something? Running out of time to check it myself

https://windward.ai/

[junior moat]

none that I found that go directly without stops from Rostock to any of the three Wiecks in that timeframe

[tired monolith]

its 14.99m in the hull, so they made it to be below that threshold - prob to avoid stuff around it that costs more

[tired monolith]

as for the company question, it fits with the article down to the price for renting it in period as displayed on the webpage - so seems overly likely unless there is a better match for all the points made in the article

can still be something else, but its quite a few things that need to match even if the article avoids giving away the easiest things

[acoustic storm]

Okay, I'm a bit unsure about the surrounding circumstances if the boat was sailed back by the renters or if it was discovered in Denmark by outsiders. If it was outsiders who discovered the boat in Denmark, I can imagine that the departure took place later in time and if it is possible to extend the dates for searching the ship? But maybe you have already tried that.

[whole thunder]

That works but you must request the DSC-Controller in Real Time because it doesn't send position by itself.

[rocky wolf]

This also seems to be something to have a look at

https://unseenlabs.space/

[whole thunder]

No idea if any service on the Internet works with that.

Don't we have a stage talk today with an expert in tracking ghostships?

https://discord.gg/mkhVn86G?event=1082268702797471764

[rocky wolf]

With fake passports they would likely want to minimize any additional interaction with the boat-rental-company or risking arrest if they would have checked their passports while they were gone

sounds more likely they may have ditched the boat in Denmark

[junior moat]

yeah there is just not many vessels overall with AIS enabled that stop at Christiansø in that timeframe, maybe I missed something, but I would say it's unlikely it was recorded into marinetraffic database

[rocky wolf]

Denmark also allows for overpass into Germany/central Europe by car- or bus

[whole thunder]

Or already deleted 🕵️‍♂️🕵️

It's a joke

[vocal violet]

We do but it's with radar, so unless there's historical data it may be tricky?

Still worth attending the event and ask about it at the q&a

[junior moat]

I think it's time for the investigative journalists to drop a few more clues so we don't get stuck here 😉

[acoustic storm]

Ok, I understand. Then I assume that no new AIS have been registered in DK in the weeks after their alleged arrival as well if the ship was later moved by outsiders and they would turned on the AIS.

[sand delta]

https://www.itu.int/mmsapp/ShipStation/list

If it has a DSC VHF, which is almost certain, it will have a MMSI and that will be registered above.

Just as an additional way to get a tiny bit of additional information.

[red ridge]

From Rostock to NordStream1 explosion site: 286 km = 155nm in a straight line.
Speed of the BAVARIA CRUISER 50 in moderate wind : 11-13 km/h = 6-7 knots.
Speed of the BAVARIA CRUISER 50 under engine power : general approx 9 km/h = 5 knots (preliminary : 75cv from factory)
Consumption (general approx): 7L/h -> 0.78L/km
(updated) Fuel storage (MOLA website) : 380L -> About 54h = 490 km = 260nm of range

[sand delta]

It has 325l x 2 diesel tanks I believe.

[red ridge]

From factory, I only see one 320L diesel tank

[sand delta]

Actually I confused myself with our original suspect motoryacht Galeon.

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/DB-Ostsee-Charteryachten-2023/Charteryacht/Yacht.php?Yacht=173

Mola’s website is saying 380l.

[red ridge]

My source is the Owner guides, but I guess there could be different versions or modification from the sharter company : http://www.uchimata.fr/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Bavaria-50-Cruiser-2005-Uchimata-Manuel-Propriétaire.pdf

[restive kelp]

Trip Rostock - Greifswald would be around 220 km
Greifswald - Christianso even less.
But they would need to refuel.

[red ridge]

I update the calculus with 380L, Mola website is a more reliable source I guess

[sand delta]

The Minerva Julie was above the northern cluster of 3 site from the 6th to the 13th, with the boat having left Rostock on the 6th, with a sighting on the 7th in Wieck (whether a. Darß or Wiek, but either way not too different), and it’s in Christiansø from the 18th to 20th, before the pipelines blow up on the 26th.

So either they waited around for the Minerva Julie to leave and did it between the 13th and 18th and then went into Christiansø, or they launched their operation out of Christiansø around the 18th and 20th, and obviously got it done before the 26th.

[restive kelp]

Problem with the minerva julie theory: There is still no explanation for southern leak. No suspected ship nearby.

[junior moat]

there is a lot of problems with all these theories, to be fair

it's just a bunch of very weird information coming together 😄

[sand delta]

I don’t suspect it was the Minerva Julie, rather, with this theory of a rented yacht having done it, it would be rather mad to have done it in broad daylight in front of a merchant ship.

[rocky wolf]

So they left Rostock on the 6th of September, were sighted or tracked in Wiek (Rügen) the following day on the 7th and then later (unclear when) tracked to Christiansø, Denmark. Any flights (helicopters) pick them up there ?

[junior moat]

Christiansø between 16th and 18th, according to Danish media

[sand delta]

Oh, 16th and 18th, my bad.

[rocky wolf]

It's quite a remote island, very small and quite a distance between it and Danish mainland

what if they were picked up by another vessel or made it out through a privately owned chopper ? (maybe this is how western intel got wind of that this could be connected to a wealthy businessman) ?

[restive kelp]

They got wind of the business connection via analysis of money flows as per German media. No need for helicopter.

[sand delta]

This is all 3 islands of Ertholmene, Christianso being the furthest east one.

[rocky wolf]

Nearest airport is RNN (Bornholm Airport)

[red ridge]

Christianso is only 45 km from the Nordstream1 explosion site (only 5 hours with engine, less sailing). It would make sense they refuelled there before the operation, and potentially refuelled also in between NS1 and NS2

(Assuming they only used the Mola boat)

[restive kelp]

However there were also a bunch of other ships (including warships) in the general area. Minerva Julie was just the only one floating in one spot.

[junior moat]

I doubt that you can refuel Diesel in Christiansø

[vocal violet]

So can we stop for a second to condense all the info that we have been working on for this last couple days?

There's a lot going on and all time, so it's easy to get lost with the flow of information. Not just for new people who are joining in and want to contribute, but also for those engaged (I myself am struggling to pick up everything and I'm sure I'm not the only one)

So I'll write down a summary here that the mods can then pin to the channel and I'll be updating as the investigation progresses, so can you please help me with what should I include? Thanks!

[sand delta]

https://marinaguide.dk/christiansoe-havn/faciliteter

[junior moat]

stand corrected

[sand delta]

So, according to the investigating journalist's reporting, a Polish company with 2 Ukrainian owners rented a yacht (of approximately 15m in length) from a German company.

They reportedly left Rostock on the 6th September, appearing in Wieck (there is confusion over whether it means Wieck auf dem Darß (although it was reported as such, but is very unlikely), or a larger harbour named Wiek) on the 7th September, and then it appears in Christiansø from the 16th to 18th of September, before the pipelines blow on the 26th.

The Wieck auf dem Darß denies the reporting he was ever contacted by police, and says there must be a confusion.

https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/mecklenburg-vorpommern/anschlag-auf-nord-stream-pipelines-rostock-ploetzlich-im-fokus-auch-zweite-spur-fuehrt-nach-mv-B2BV7EQJKNAVPKB7IAUO3KXVKU.html

The administrator of Christianso, posted a message on the local facebook saying as follow:

The post read like this:
"The administration has received an inquiry from the police asking if anyone has pictures of ships in the harbor on 16 - 18 September 2022. It is as part of an investigation, and they are interested in one specific ship - and in addition cannot lift the veil for more information, other than to state that nothing illegal has been committed in the harbor or on the islands in general," it said.
"Please let me know if you have pictures or specific information about ships in the harbor on the days in question," the post concluded.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/nord-stream-sabotagen-politiet-har-ledt-efter-spor-paa-christiansoe

[junior moat]

current suspected boat is Bavaria Cruiser 50/51

one of such (probably) left HoheDüne on Sept 7th between 1200 and 1400 according to webcam footage

probably the German charter company is Mola Yachts

[sand delta]

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/DB-Ostsee-Charteryachten-2023/Charteryacht/Yacht.php?Yacht=173

Of which they have two

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafenresidenz-Rostock-Warnemuende.html

We've figured out the name of one of Mola yacht's two 2012/13 Cruiser 50s.

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1633649210036998144

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

tl;dr for the day's progress:
Decent chance that the rented boat is one of two Bavaria Cruiser 50's operated by Mola Yacht in Rostock. Figured out the name of one of these -- not posting it yet -- but don't know the other. Also trying to determine the MMSIs for the two boats.

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 2:01 AM

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1633567163889098757/

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1633546861540937730/

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

This cuts it down dramatically.

https://t.co/ujMKYbq3VN

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 8:35 PM

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

Screenshot of an email on German TV from a prosecutor. Note the underscoring of "German company that rented out the ship" and that the boat allegedly had explosive devices on it.

(Thanks to "Miles" from our Discord for the screenshot & translation!)

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 7:14 PM

(and also, a Cruiser 50 does cost about 3 grand to rent out from Mola)

Note the prices for next September.

[vocal violet]

A summary of what we know about the supposed sabotage with a yacht can be found on this document. Both I and @magic niche will be upating it:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/127ofIt_FaSbqzfxUgeiaBYKH8INjzMWGsJo8_XH-13k

Also check Aric's thread for his own updates https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1633132680274386946 :

Alright, fact check and tell me what else needs to be included

[hushed bay]

Can you add any additions/corrections to this post instead of making a new post, please? That way we've got it all in one place

[vocal violet]

That's the intention 😉

I'll be editing the post as we keep progressing

[sand delta]

The name of one is known, but we can't share it, is the issue

[vocal violet]

Fair

[junior moat]

one angle we haven't touched at all is the (mini)van that was allegedly driven from Poland to Rostock with the equipment, and there must be some location where they loaded the equip onto the boat (cannot have happened at Hohe Düne - doesn't look like you can drive a car there)

[sand delta]

There's a carpark in the bottom right.

Definitely a weird spot to load the explosives, you need to drive past a German naval base to get there.

[vocal violet]

Unless the explosives were obtained from there, but that's very conspiracy theory realm

[sand delta]

It's about a 320 metre walk from the carpark to Mola's floating office.

And obviously Mola would be more interested than a random person in what you're doing on their yacht, so perhaps you don't want to be carrying bags of explosives onto their yacht in front of them.

[vocal violet]

The rental from Mola is 3000€ per day, right?

[sand delta]

No, for 7 days.

[vocal violet]

Oh, that's actually cheap for the little I know about ship rental

[sand delta]

Yachtcharter Wochenpreise = Yacht Charter Weekly Price.

Yep.

[muted gazelle]

How do you fit 400m of anchor chain into a Bavaria 50? The standard anchor chain supplied in such a boat is 50m long. 400m of chain would weigh a tonne and it certainly wouldn't fit into the anchor chain locker. https://escolaportbarcelona.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Bavaria-50-Cruiser-Owners-Manual.pdf

[sand delta]

Oh that was something I said to say that there’s no chance they could have anchored.

The Cruiser 50 only comes with 80m of chain.

[junior moat]

https://twitter.com/Georg_Heil/status/1633802413873287168
<-- good confirmation

Georg Heil (@Georg_Heil)

We have to correct our report in one point: the boat apparently stopped in Wiek on Rügen island and not in Wieck/Darss. Our initial reporting was based on several sources but still not correct.

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 12:10 PM

[vocal violet]

I'll add that correction

[sand delta]

In waters that deep, a merchant ship would need to be dumping shackles and shackles into the water and doing multi point anchoring and still it holding position would be unlikely.

[velvet rain]

I think you could drive all the way up to where the piers begin. The promenade (no idea if that is the correct word) should by accessible by car via the parking spaces at the Kongresszentrum. Whether that is legal is a different question.

[sand delta]

The anchor chain on a yacht is much smaller and thus even less helpful when you dump it into the water.

[raw nexus]

And that's the webcam down

[sand delta]

Hohe Dune have taken their webcam down?

Or Wiek?

[raw nexus]

Wiek since months

I'm checking for private cams

[sand delta]

Hmm

Presumably when you rent a yacht you’ve to drop it back to where you got it from, or at the very least to one of the companies other harbours?

[whole thunder]

Finally another wieck 😂

[sand delta]

Mola for example is obviously renting a number of berths in Hohe Dune for use by itself, so it’s boats will be put there.

Likewise in the other 4 harbours they have a presence in.

[whole thunder]

Bold move to pass the german navy yard, but the street is used for all kinds of traffic to the hotel and port and eastern part of warnemünde/hohe dühne. Don't think it's really a security issue

[sand delta]

German investigators searched the ships 18-20th January, so presumably if it’s a Mola ship it will be in one of the harbours Mola has a presence in.

[velvet rain]

From Mola's terms of service: "Der Charterer sichert zu und verpflichtet sich wie folgt: die Yacht am letzten Chartertag bis spätestens 9:00 Uhr im Ausgangshafen in einwandfreiem, gereinigtem, aufgeklartem und vollgetanktem Zustand zur Rücknahme bereitzuhalten."
So yeah, you have to bring it back to where you got it from.

[sand delta]

In order for the boat to be in Christiansø from the 16-18th, it could be up to a 3 week charter.

[vocal violet]

Yup, and where was the ship between the 7th and the 16th is another question

[sand delta]

It definitely couldn’t have been over the NS1 site because there was a tanker drifting near it until the 13th.

[vocal violet]

And would have it made it from Hohe Düne, when we see one ship with these features, leave on the 7th between 12 to 14, to Wiek, which is more than 100km away, in a time that people would witness it that same day

[rustic bay]

thank you for being Secretary General of the Nord Stream Pipeline Forum

lmao at the sailor salute

[vocal violet]

Perfect emote lol

[rustic bay]

i will handle this so the whole server can salute

[sand delta]

Pipespert

[raw nexus]

@vocal violet can you put in links from the harbor etc please, for those who join

[vocal violet]

Yup, I'm trying to put relevant links there, but if you leave me the links here it will make my job easier

[raw nexus]

Will do later if no one has, Im on a zoom now

[sand delta]

https://marinaguide.dk/christiansoe-havn/faciliteter

Facilities in Christiansø

https://www.rostock-port.de/fileadmin/Media/PDFs/Hafen-_und_Seemannsamt/Ports_Guide_of_Rostock_2018-01-23.pdf

Rostock Port Guide

[sand delta]

https://www.hafendorf-wiek.de/english/harbour-plan/

Harbour plan for Wiek

[vocal violet]

No rush, I'm about to have my lunch anyway

[sand delta]

On the last link

I’m on my phone so I dunno if it’s that, but it stays it has a live cam.

[velvet rain]

The webcam link seems dead

[sand delta]

RIP.

[vocal violet]

Where is the (mini)van mentioned? In one of the press articles?

[velvet rain]

Most of the articles (and interviews) say "Lieferwagen".

That's generally a van of up to 3.5t total mass.

I.e. one that you can drive with a normal driver's license.

[vocal violet]

Should be enough for the explosives and diving equipment

[velvet rain]

I think approximately 1000 kg is the upper limit on load capacity in that class. That also includes passengers except for the driver.

And driving a visibly overloaded vehicle is quite risky if you don't want to get stopped by police, especially on longer trips.

[vocal violet]

That probably contradicts the amount of explosives used if it was RDX

[junior moat]

TheTimes article mentions the van being driven from Poland to Germany, then again TheTimes also mentions other questionable things like a "peculiar calling card"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/23538776-bd4d-11ed-b386-2854db7a4e6a?shareToken=c89df312a4e0f03f1ab7e075f6a891a7

[velvet rain]

I think at least the Zeit article does not explicitly state that the explosives were transported using the van. They only mention "equipment". That may or may not include the explosives.

Can we even be sure that the explosives were loaded in Rostock? They might have picked them up en route, e.g. in Wiek.

[pine umbra]

I wonder, why Wiek? It appears pretty laborious to get there?

[sand delta]

Close to Poland.

Could be one possible reason.

Has anyone joined the Yachthafen Hohe Dune Facebook group?

Preferably someone who is German, they’d probably be spooked if a lot of foreign sounding names started joining.

[junior moat]

I think Wiek makes sense. It's probably the closest refueling station on the way to Bornholm

[pine umbra]

speaking in pure distance yes, but actually you are even quicker in Rostock than in Wiek when starting from the polish border (by car)

[pine umbra]

true, possible

[velvet rain]

Also, if being close to Poland was the goal, there would probably be better suited harbours directly in Poland.

[velvet rain]

It's only a fraction of the distance to the sites of the explosions or Christiansø though. And only on the second day of the trip. Would that be a sensible refuelling stop?

[subtle finch]

Wouldn't it be suspicious if a charter yacht that has just arrived in another port (Wiek) is suddenly supplied by a delivery truck? Far more suspicious than just doing it in Rostock because it's totally normal to load bags full of luggage anyway?

[pine umbra]

especially when considering that the company is Polish in the first place, why go to Germany (and cross one more border, which is always somewhat risky even inside Schengen)? Then again Germany is geographically closer to North Stream ofcourse

[junior moat]

yeah not sure, could have been loaded already at Rostock, but still just refuel at Wiek

it's 1/3 of the way to Christiansø, roundabout

[sand delta]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/109929279425665/

Anyone interested in joining this?

[true barn]

this appears be a great border crossing for when you have a car full of explosives.

"The Ahlbeck – Świnoujście Border Crossing was interesting as it was a busy tourist crossing point, had a closed beach and was the terminus station for the UBB. It also had a sea route from Ahlbeck Pier to Świnoujście Port."
https://barrysborderpoints.com/country-visits/germany/ahlbeck-swinoujscie-border-crossing/

[pine umbra]

I could try, I am not really using my Facebook acc anyways, but what are we hoping to learn there?

[sand delta]

Just pics from around the port

We know one of the names of the two Bavaria Cruiser 50s

If a picture captured the area it might catch the other name.

[velvet rain]

I still don't get the purpose of the Polish company, by the way. I don't think there should be any need to involve an additional company at all in the chartering process. You can charter a yacht from Mola just fine as a normal person, judging from the rental contract. Especially if they were using fake passports. Why unnecessarily do it in the name of a company that can actually be traced?

[sand delta]

Or indeed confirm the name we have.

[pine umbra]

okay I'll try

[sand delta]

Travel agent perhaps?

[pine umbra]

I might sound low key conspiracy theorist but: cover tracks generally?

[velvet rain]

Exactly. The only reason for another company would be if they were just a middle man. But then the ownership of that company really shouldn't be interpreted as a clue pointing towards Ukraine.

[next lagoon]

If more complex things are at work this is what you do generally

There will be an end company you can look at, but, if you look deep enough into it, you get thrown into a rabbit hole of shell companies

[velvet rain]

Shell companies are a thing if you want to do company things anonymously. But renting a yacht shouldn't be a company thing. There is no reason to make it a company thing.

[next lagoon]

Unless you're specifically trying to layer means to obfuscate identifying material

Not saying that is what happened but its possibility isn't non-existent

[deft crescent]

My understanding is that the Lissy III is a Cruiser 51 but that the Susi Sorglos wasn't in fact a Cruiser 50, but was a Cruiser 34.

See here

[sand delta]

It’s neither of those names

[vocal violet]

It can be if you're a travel agency or is some kind of event. Businesses do all kind of partying and stuff like that. Or it can be for some kind of marketing, you never know

[sand delta]

But agreed.

[deft crescent]

Ah, I must have missed when one of the Cruiser 50 was found

[sand delta]

It was found in DMs

Not being discussed here due to reasons.

[velvet rain]

Yeah, sure. I meant for the purposes of the people in this case though. There is no clear reason for them to make it a company thing.

[sand delta]

Mola is still going to want to see a passport/ID and a short range radio certificate

Obviously those can be counterfeited of course.

[vocal violet]

Yeah, that's fair, but it can be just a way to mask it, or even take some tax advantage

[pine umbra]

yeah, assuming your level of criminal energy is "blowing up a Pipeline", then this would not stop you

[next lagoon]

Yeah like there's nothing for sure to say it, unless there's indicators not wise to theorize too deep into it, but it being used as a means to further obfuscate ownership is absolutely a legitimate thing

That's the entire idea of proprietary front companies

Esp depending on countries registrations specifics, you can layer them in ways where you'll have a hard time connecting it to specific persons rather than more and more layers of other companies, trust funds, etc

[sand delta]

Or if you’re doing it as a false flag, you want to intentionally finger someone as being behind it.

[velvet rain]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here, but what exactly would they be trying to hide here?

[sand delta]

Not to be a conspiracy theorist

[velvet rain]

Exactly. That's the point I was trying to make.

[next lagoon]

Considering the countries they hosted it from would consider what they did criminal violations

Probably that

[velvet rain]

Are we talking about the identities of the people who did the operation?

[next lagoon]

Or well not trying to hide that, but, try to avoid connecting themselves to that

Yeah @ identities part

[vocal violet]

You need a VAT number and then that needs to go through accountability. Not impossible to do, but there are mechanisms into why you can't just buy something casually pretending to work to some company

[velvet rain]

See, that's the thing. They already used fake passports. And even if a company was involved, they'd have to use the passports anyway.

[sand delta]

If Ukraine was behind this, even pro-Ukrainians with a limited amount of state support, wouldn’t they not care

Get back to Ukraine and they’re fine.

[next lagoon]

That doesn't negate you from taking more measures

People that get assigned to work out of proprietary front companies also use fake passports

[vocal violet]

What I'm thinking now is if there's a registry of companies in Poland (I mean, there should, but if it's accessible is a different story), and filter out those owned by Ukrainians

That way there's a database that can be contrasted if a name appears

[next lagoon]

Sara mentioned another possibility that'd hit on that use for the same reason but less as a precaution, although, I wouldn't call that a "false flag" personally

[velvet rain]

But those measures aren't adding anything to the anonymity of the people who physically rented the yacht. You would just be giving the authorities additional information without hiding any of the identifying markers that would be present anyway.

[next lagoon]

Which can waste immense amount of resources checking down leads that are just rabbit holes of more information with little to assess

[tidal knoll]

I don’t like the odds that owners’ nationalites are listed in a public registry.

[next lagoon]

I can ask a Polish friend if we dont got any here and see what their registries are like

[sand delta]

https://www.biznes.gov.pl/en/firma-tresci/doing-business-in-poland/2/192

[next lagoon]

Some might depending on varying factors

[vocal violet]

Yeah, me neither Knife, the odds are very slim, but maybe filter out by typical Ukrainian last names or something like that

[sand delta]

https://www.biznes.gov.pl/en/firma/doing-business-in-poland/cooperation-with-contractors-and-consumers/how-to-find-information-about-an-entrepreneur

CEDIG?

[vocal violet]

Because something that bugs me what's the evidence of this Ukrainian owned Polish company? How is it confirmed it is indeed a Polish company and owned by Ukrainians?

[velvet rain]

We're basically trusting the Zeit et al. journalists on this point, I think.

[vocal violet]

Yeah, and while Zeit is a reliable newspaper, it doesn't mean their word is always true

[pine umbra]

afaik only secret service intel no?

[nimble gull]

Has anything new come out in regards to the CIA advance warning Germany (before the sabotage) of pro-Ukrainians targeting energy infrastructure? I see some mention, in the NYT for example, or murmurs after the blasts. Confused timeline or two different things being reported on?

[velvet rain]

Especially considering how they messed up the Wieck/Wiek thing.

[vocal violet]

Maybe, if they had access to Mola's invoices they can check it easily. Of course that's information we don't have and I doubt there's an open source for that

[sand delta]

https://www.biznes.gov.pl/en/firma/doing-business-in-poland/running-business-by-foreigners-in-poland/what-type-of-business-activity-may-be-conducted-in-poland-by-foreigners-citizen-of-ukraine

[vocal violet]

The NYT article is based on a low confidence report. I'm very sceptical of anything coming from it. The German news are providing more substantial stuff which is what we're checking and verifying here

[sand delta]

Wow

https://dane.gov.pl/pl/dataset/1266

All countries owned by foreign entrepreneurs

Are listed here

Along with their country

[vocal violet]

So there's actually such database? Lmao

[sand delta]

Well

Maybe

Worth a look through I suppose

[amber ember]

Do you have any info about this polish company? name, any tax numbers?

[sand delta]

It only makes sense for it to be a middleman company, maybe a travel agent or something.

Otherwise it being involved is a little weird.

[vocal violet]

Nothing I believe, hence why it's a roadblock. But having a list of Ukrainian owned companies in Poland can help to verify if any of that shows up

[nimble gull]

Indeed. I always thought this was such an interesting tidbit that was reported in Germany at the time (this from September 30th) that no one really seemed to take seriously or followed up on.

[pine umbra]

only 544? That seems few

[vocal violet]

The mention of the attempt to rent a boat in Sweden is interesting, needs verification

I'll add that to the pinned post

@nimble gull Do you have a direct link to the article from the screenshot?

[sand delta]

Hmm, I’m not totally sure now

Ah, I’m an idiot

[nimble gull]

Here: https://www.spiegel.de/international/sabotage-in-the-baltic-nord-stream-attacks-expose-vulnerability-of-european-infrastructure-a-03337f93-a32a-40a1-9266-fc2692289e33

[sand delta]

Register of representative offices of foreign entrepreneurs 2023.03.01

[nimble gull]

This was published back in September though

[vocal violet]

Thanks!

[sand delta]

It’s Representative offices

[pine umbra]

ah okay that makes more sense

[amber ember]

Yeah its just representative offices

[nimble gull]

So old at this point. But was just wild to me at the time that no one in international media even looked at it

Especially in Sweden

[vocal violet]

I'll add it to the pinned post. Aric and other Bcat folk will check that and I guess they'll mention it if they find it interesting. Thanks for bringing it up

[sand delta]

Question. Just to be clear, 7th-16th is the gap where it could be anywhere? No leads at all?

Besides directly over NS1 until the 13th.

[vocal violet]

Yep, there was a ship drifting over the NS1 location until the 13th

[sand delta]

The Minerva Julie.

Chemical tanker.

[next lagoon]

While it was already mentioned that, that is basically a rumor, that is something you could expect

Even authoritarian nations tend to send tip offs over stuff like that

That doesn't make it any more likely though

[sand delta]

Any luck with this?

[cobalt valley]

There is no refueling/diesel on Christiansø. There is no cars there. The link is not correct @junior moat @sand delta

[pine umbra]

my request is still pending

[sand delta]

Ahhh

[sand delta]

Diesel for boats though.

[cobalt valley]

No, I don't think so. Official page doesn't mention diesel or any other refueling option https://www.christiansoe.dk/besog-oen/overnatning/havn/

[vocal violet]

I'm looking at Christiansø's harbour with satellite imagery and I don't see anything that resembles any refueling, but I can be mistaken

[tired monolith]

its even very restricted with fresh water, so would make sense if it wasnt

[sand delta]

Hmm

[pine umbra]

We do not have any lead about Christianso besides the ZEIT-report, right?

[sand delta]

And the Christianso administrator posting on the island Facebook on January 5th:

"The administration has received an inquiry from the police asking if anyone has pictures of ships in the harbor on 16 - 18 September 2022. It is as part of an investigation, and they are interested in one specific ship - and in addition cannot lift the veil for more information, other than to state that nothing illegal has been committed in the harbor or on the islands in general," it said.
"Please let me know if you have pictures or specific information about ships in the harbor on the days in question," the post concluded.

Since deleted on their Facebook though.

[pine umbra]

ah well, but we know, it is legit?

(as legit as can be at this point)

[sand delta]

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/nord-stream-sabotagen-politiet-har-ledt-efter-spor-paa-christiansoe

As legit as the Danish public broadcasting service reporting on it anyways

[vocal violet]

I'm on the max length for the pinned post, so I'll have to make a new one later 😅

(or put the links on a separate one)

[pine umbra]

make it a drive/google doc or something like that?

[vocal violet]

Was thinking of that too

I'll look around it

[true barn]

https://www.segel-filme.de/haefen/christianso/

[pine umbra]

So there is some sort of Diesel facility there?

[sand delta]

The two long buildings

Should be arround there.

[vocal violet]

There's something in the middle boat, but that may just be water rather than a pipe?

[velvet rain]

The 3.5 tons is total vehicle mass, by the way, not load capacity. The German term is "zulässige Gesamtmasse". I think the direct English equivalent is "gross vehicle weight rating".

[vocal violet]

I'll correct that

[true barn]

maybe you mean the mast?

[vocal violet]

Nah, it's a rope

[true barn]

yup

[sand delta]

Instagram picture from this February.

[vocal violet]

Lovely weather

[sand delta]

https://www.instagram.com/explore/locations/274024799/ertholmene/

[vocal violet]

Those are the toilets I believe?

[sand delta]

Yes, lol.

[whole thunder]

Nope nothing yesterday

It's just some holiday pictures. No discussion at all

[sand delta]

crap

[true barn]

This mess in front of the building seems to be part of the infrastructure 😉

[thick crag]

is the boat on the right the cruiser?

[sand delta]

hold on

reverse image search

https://rawandwriggling1.wordpress.com/2016/07/08/christianso/

It's from 2016.

[subtle finch]

@vocal violet is there any valid point mentioning the navy base next to "Hohe Düne"? The military has no rights at all over civilians in Germany and furthermore it should be pretty normal to bring a lot of bags before setting sail... Normally you use sailing bags ("Segeltasche" in German) for all of your luggage/equipment, they are also available with wheels (big ones with 130l storage). As long as you can pack all the stuff into several bags loading should be as easy as anywhere else in "Hohe Düne".

[sand delta]

that's ironically a cruiser 37

in the pic

[true barn]

I don't find anything resembling a diesel tap along these buildings in any photo

[sand delta]

Anyone want to call Christianso harbour and ask if they have diesel

🫣

[pine umbra]

I mean they name it as part of their service...

[true barn]

https://www.krampitz.de/en/tank-container/boat-gas-station/
there's also ships acting as mobile gas stations sometimes

[vocal violet]

I mean, it's just under the idea of doing things in a more covert way, but you have a point definitely

I removed it, if someone has a counter argument I'll consider adding it back

[sand delta]

Where did you find that? Checking christansoe.dk it doesn’t mention that in Danish, English or German

[nimble gull]

No, true, but it’s certainly more “likely” now

[pine umbra]

from this page @sand delta idk how legit it is

(not first hand source obviously)

[nimble gull]

Kaare, fantastic write-up in Zetland! Looking forward to the next one.

[sand delta]

Alright!

Btw, we’re smack in the middle of the the harbor master’s office hours, 4-5 pm (CET +1)

Anyone speak danish?

S/he probably speaks English ngl

[thick crag]

i’d call and try english if not for the fact that long distance calls cost a fortune. wish they used whatsapp

can anyone find their email? i cannot, which seems especially bizarre. surely a harbor cannot only have a phone number

[sand delta]

https://www.facebook.com/Christiansoe

Their official page

[pine umbra]

[email protected]

(according to fb page)

[thick crag]

that’s the city administrator, isn’t it?

[sand delta]

The most recent post

From 4 hours ago

Is a tonne of journalists arriving lol

[pine umbra]

I guess the city is small enough so it doesnt make a difference

[sand delta]

Ye, but the January 5th post seems to be deleted

[junior moat]

very high-res image -- still cannot determine if there is diesel available 😉
link to hi-res : https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Christiansø_-_Pakhuset_%26_Vestre_Længe_fra_søsiden.jpg

[sand delta]

Administrator is almost certainly double hatted as harbormaster

[pine umbra]

yes, this place has some double digit number of inhabitants I believe?

[sand delta]

85

Or so

It has a pride parade tho lol

[thick crag]

how’s this for an email? anyone able to translate it to danish if it seems fine? otherwise, i’ll send it in english:

Hello,

I was wondering if your harbor supplied diesel.

Thank you,
My name here

[sand delta]

Yes, that’s probably fine, unless you wanted to pretend to be a yacht person interested in coming to lengthen the email

[thick crag]

they have plenty of english stuff on their various pages, so I’ll just go ahead and send it

[sand delta]

Ye, they have to speak English. It’s a tourist island.

[sand delta]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CEeoyRABZik/

jbinds

Probably the first pride parade on the historic island of Christiansø in The Baltic Sea

Instagram

[pine umbra]

~5% of the population taking part, thats quite decent

[subtle finch]

And as I mentioned the point with loading, is there any problem in carrying or pulling something a few hundred meters from the parking space Hohe Düne? You need to put everything below deck, driving closer to the ship or even a crane doesn't help in this regard.

[sand delta]

6 people going for 2 weeks would probably need to take a considerable amount of luggage

Food stores for 2-3 weeks.

Again assumes they don’t load elsewhere.

[junior moat]

when you write this email the harbor-person will be like "wait a minute, I got that same email last September, and then after the pipeline exploded, what's gonna happen this time" 😁

[vocal violet]

The weight and size of the equipment and explosives alone

[true barn]

food stores and even fresh/non-fresh water supply isn't much of a problem. you could easily go on a month long trip crossing a major ocean with a decent yacht. If they're mostly sailing, Diesel should also last for quite some time/distance. After all, people are crossing oceans with such boats.
explosives and equipment however is still a big question mark in my books

[sand delta]

It’s still food, fuel and water for 6 ppl for 2-3 weeks, if they didn’t make a stop somewhere else during the 7th-16th window

[pallid moat]

high res aerial shot of Christiansø uploaded on Flickr last December fwiw

argh, seems discord downgraded it. 6k version here https://www.flickr.com/photos/ams-kaj/52561000170/sizes/6k/

[vocal violet]

I strongly encourage everyone who isn't already in to join the talk in The Stage as it is quite relevant with this investigation

(If you cannot make it but are still interested, there will be a recording in Bellingcat's soundcloud)

[lilac patrol]

this image is from October and not the correct ship (looks to be the ship belonging to the guy who posted the image, who was on a sailing trip) but it might be good for comparisons on how a Bavaria cruiser-looking ship would fit in the harbor at Christiansø https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=5896280367057714&set=pcb.5896218663730551

[mossy star]

Just chatted with a German journo, who is sending someone to check with the Wiek harbormaster to check departure/arrival records.

[hoary maple]

So, do we still not have any idea which polish org hired the boat?

[junior moat]

negative

[hoary maple]

hm, gotcha

[junior moat]

none of the experts that I heard so far believe in any way that these operations would be possible for a team of just 6 people with one smallish yacht

[tired monolith]

is the people or the boat causing the doubt? could they have picked up additional people somewhere perhaps?

[raw nexus]

Jep. I'm sure they trained somewhere and met for exchange of material minimum

[pine umbra]

thats amazing, I will look into it (have an appointment rn)

[junior moat]

it's a lot of factors. being able to buy these amounts of explosives without anyone noticing, faking passports in such a apparently professional way, then having to do multiple day-long dives without anything going wrong, without the boat getting noticed etc etc

installing fuzes etc

[pine umbra]

it still seems pretty unlikely that "6 people and a sailing yacht" is the whole story right? How did they transport the necessary amount of explosives, how did they even anchor the boat in 80m deep water (and I am not even talking about the "why would they do any of the above")

[junior moat]

yes, I don't think we can in any way assume it was just only these 6 people, diving in the night without anchor and with massive amounts of explosives

[pine umbra]

exactly but at the same time any further speculation is purely hypothetical as long as no further information is published

[junior moat]

"An eyewitness in Wiek auf Rügen also reports to ZDF Frontal that he claims to have observed a group of six at the port in September - five men and one woman - who did not speak German." quote from ZDF

[thick crag]

are eyewitness memories that reliable?

[junior moat]

no but the harbour-master guy got interrogated as well by the federal police about acitivities in the port

ZDF is speculating the boat to be a Bavaria C50 not Bavaria Cruiser .. but okay probably also just guesswork

[pine umbra]

ZDF also seems to have detail about the group:

1 captain, 2 divers, 2 assisting divers, 1 physician

[thick crag]

if they really were ukrainian being bankrolled by a really wealthy dude, then getting explosives is probably not that hard

[hoary maple]

interrogated, or questioned?

[tired monolith]

this company only has 1 of those in Rostock, its 2023 model and 1000 euro more expensive to rent

[junior moat]

questioned, sorry 😄

[modest basalt]

Did the eyewitness ZDF speak to interact with the group of 6 or just observe them? I'm curious how the eyewitness would have gotten details on the individual roles of each group member.

[cobalt valley]

The Jan 5 post was from an closed Facebook-group for the people living on the island

[junior moat]

yeah I can easily believe we're more accurate than ZDF after spending 20hours in discord 😉

[pine umbra]

they actually refer to this report by tagesschau:

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/nord-stream-explosion-101.html

which in turn just bases its findings on "investigators", who identified the boat

[thick crag]

do we know if the woman was a diver, assistant diver, the physician, or the captain?

[pine umbra]

they use the female version "Ärztin" so it is probably the physician

[raw nexus]

That's true but this kind of group brainstorm leads often to new sight of things

[pine umbra]

yes, nothing wrong with that, it just helps me personally to not get lost in some hypothetical rabbithole :D

[junior moat]

generally yes, but these amounts would probably be difficult to come by without one of your black-market suppliers turning out to be a cop

or at least you'd have to buy over several months, not everything at once

[thick crag]

if you owned a mining company, you’d probably have a lot of explosives

if you didn’t own a mining company, you could probably contract with one of their suppliers?

[modest basalt]

I assume you would need some kind of license to buy from those suppliers - If you wanted to do everything by the book

[pine umbra]

then again, even their passports were fake...

[modest basalt]

Lol true. I wonder how much scrutiny is actually involved with that whole process.

[thick crag]

depending on how rich they are (if the tycoon theory is true, then surely they’re at least this rich) they can almost definitely obtain a license

[hoary maple]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tOOGkKuCyPtcbVoIntlrlzITSHYZjZQrOdB_XuDFenM/edit?usp=sharing

[drifting sky]

that's such a lovely island!

[hoary maple]

I've run through the database linked here and highlighted the ones specific to Ukrainians

I've also translated various helpful bits

[pine umbra]

I think we had this one earlier today, those are just the representative offices

[vocal violet]

Sweet, I'll add that right meow

[hoary maple]

though only with google translate, so yknow, maybe not accurate

[pine umbra]

(which explains the relatively small number)

[hoary maple]

I'm relatively certain they are businesses, though that would explain why theres only 13 of them

[pine umbra]

yes those are businesses, but by far not all polish businesses owned by foreigners, as far as I understand

[hoary maple]

agreed

the total number is only 554, so

well

hm

idk actually

[velvet rain]

I don't think those are Polish businesses.

[hoary maple]

https://dane.gov.pl/pl/dataset/1266/resource/45501/table?page=11&per_page=50&q=&sort=

wait

yeah

representative offices of foreign entrepreneurs

[velvet rain]

Exactly

[hoary maple]

bollocks

[pine umbra]

it is from this page, right? https://dane.gov.pl/pl/dataset/1266

[modest basalt]

Line 500 of that doc appears to be a mining company?

[velvet rain]

The dataset even lists the company seat in its respective country of origin.

[pine umbra]

It says "Register of representative offices of foreign entrepreneurs 2023.03.01" according to translate

[hoary maple]

Yeah, so it's specifically individuals who have representative offices

so not quite as valuable

[velvet rain]

I think entrepreneurs might be a mistranslation.

The "Nazwa przedsiębiorcy zagranicznego" column ("Name of the foreign entrepreneur") contains company names.

[hoary maple]

huh

we need a polish speaker

[velvet rain]

The first one is Ukrainian Railways, I think.

[restive kelp]

Here they wrote the name of the ship: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/nord-stream-explosionen-fahnder-rekonstruieren-kurs-der-segeljacht-andromeda-a-a0dd90c2-185f-4d35-a5ae-b0bf9ce7f6d4?sara_ref=re-so-app-sh

Andromeda

[velvet rain]

The rightmost column name in that screenshot gets translated to "Name and surname of the person authorized in the representative office to represent the foreign entrepreneur", so "entrepreneur" is almost certainly referring to a company, not an individual.

[thick crag]

seems like a huge deal! anything else in the article that’s important, since it’s paywalled?

[restive kelp]

Most important sentence in the article

[velvet rain]

That doesn't fit the Rostock thing at all.

[pine umbra]

It says the "Andromeda" is based in Breege/Rügen, this is somewhat contradictory to our lead about the whole thing starting in Rostock right?

[restive kelp]

Home port breege is not in Rostock though, but close to Wiek on Rügen

Still possible they started in Rostock

Charter Company also based in Rügen

[sand delta]

I mean

Since it’s been named now

[thick crag]

i cannot find any boats named “Andromeda” that fit the description

[restive kelp]

But they say they started in Rostock Warnemünde in the article

[sand delta]

@mossy star

[restive kelp]

I also cannot

[pine umbra]

yeah but this fits with Mola: https://www.mola.de/Impressum.htm

it is also Rügen-based

[velvet rain]

So they would have picked up the ship on Rügen, taken it to Rostock, loaded it up and then travelled back to Wiek?

[pine umbra]

it could also be that the registration in Rügen is just a technical thing because of taxes or whatnot and the ship is physically based in Rostock I think

[restive kelp]

No just the charter firm is probably based there, but they probably rent it out from rostock because its easiert to reach

[thick crag]

can you share the part (or parts?) of the article that talks about the path, please?

[pine umbra]

(Breege has a way better Gewerbesteuerhebesatz e.g.)

[velvet rain]

That seems plausible

[restive kelp]

entire article

[thick crag]

thank you so much

i can’t find a single cruiser 50 named andromeda

[sand delta]

I’m waiting for a response saying I can before I share stuff

So hold on for a second

[velvet rain]

https://www.sailpartner.de/wp-content/uploads/Yacht-Ausgabe-2015-24.pdf

[sand delta]

So yea, in that article

There’s this

[hoary maple]

what does it say?

[sand delta]

You’ll find a view called this

The exact same thing

[hoary maple]

ah, gotcha

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by3HCopNOP0

See the thumbnail

See here

See in the video

See the website

Lastly

See in the video

[hoary maple]

so who owns it?

[sand delta]

And lastly

See this

[whole thunder]

I've read breege somewhere before. That this is the homeport doesnt mean, the boat was not in Rostock for the season. They could have rented it there, where people are willing to pay more money

[sand delta]

There’s this in the video

[hoary maple]

ye, its Mola

[sand delta]

Since it’s been identified by you guys

I can share this now.

[hoary maple]

have secrets been kept from us?

I'm flabbergasted

[rocky wolf]

They probably do, in case they don't I can write them in Swedish and translate Danish

[velvet rain]

The Breege/Rostock combination is very Mola-specific.

[pine umbra]

the name of the boat, which we have now, yes

[sand delta]

Perhaps.

I couldn’t share this before

But given Spiegel has named it

And you found the pdf

Only a matter of time. So hey!

[hoary maple]

why not?

[thick crag]

thanks for sharing. definitely seems like something you can (if you had to, so maybe a bit uncomfortably) fit explosives into

[sand delta]

Something me and Aric were working on.

[hoary maple]

oh, ok

[rocky wolf]

Man. I go to the gym for 45 minutes, get groceries, pickup the kids and when I come back I have an hour of reading to do!! (you guys aren't holding back)

[sand delta]

Or well, rather, Aric was working on, I was just helping find stuff.

[whole thunder]

as i said, in those rural areas in eastern germany, some foreign speaking folks definetly are a topic for a village..... but the people probably just wanna fame now. This information was public for 2 days now

[sand delta]

On the ITU website

https://www.itu.int/mmsapp/ShipStation/list

If you search German ships names Andromeda

There’s only 20 or so

And a lot of them have too small capacities

Some don’t have any, and a couple fit

[lilac patrol]

possibly the Andromeda in October 2020 in Wiek on Google Maps? name on the front looks like it starts with an "A" https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kreidebrücke+Wiek/@54.622292,13.2862367,-42a,33.1y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipNFbCzXcqrjNZbwz4KcVsecBLsJ_PtZ6pvk2mDX!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNFbCzXcqrjNZbwz4KcVsecBLsJ_PtZ6pvk2mDX%3Dw203-h152-k-no!7i4032!8i3024!4m17!1m10!4m9!1m4!2m2!1d-77.0449321!2d38.9175507!4e1!1m3!2m2!1d13.284465!2d54.621955!3m5!1s0x47ab5725f89e9323:0xe212845e22aa78e!8m2!3d54.622292!4d13.2850723!16s%2Fg%2F11fy_r6h_x

[sand delta]

So you can narrow the Andromeda down to maybe 5 or so boats

And get their MMSIs

[tidal knoll]

The text of the article seems irrelevant in this, just the info about the ship that can be gleaned from it, I guess?

[restive kelp]

yes

[sand delta]

Oh, that’s just an article about a sailing competition back 5 years ago

Totally irrelevant

Besides

[pine umbra]

yes the text is really just some random story

[sand delta]

It mentioning Mola a lot

Or well, it having a little advertisement

And it starting off from a place right next to where Mola has an office

[restive kelp]

Still cannot find it in marinetraffic

[sand delta]

Doesn’t have an AIS

You can’t, unfortunately.

Just a VHF with DSC.

[tired monolith]

looks likely. looks like an identical behind it also, so perhaps its the two

[sand delta]

Ah I see now

https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/1633885222272942088

Aric Toler (@AricToler)

A magazine article here mentioning the Andromeda -- a Bavarian Cruiser 50, as we suspected -- from Mola Yacht, a charter company on Rostock.
https://t.co/l4Sg8bELfQ

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 5:39 PM

Just so I hadn’t stepped on Aric’s toes, he posted it

Well, maybe a couple minutes too early by me, apologies

Or maybe not, seeing his earlier tweets

[hoary maple]

So, now we just need to like find who hired the boat

[tired monolith]

says they have 2, so there is another name missing

[hoary maple]

We got the other one though, right?

[sand delta]

There’s the Andromeda and a second Cruiser 50 offered by Mola out of Hohe Dune.

But since they’ve named it as the Andromeda, the identity of the second one doesn’t necessarily matter.

[hoary maple]

Gotcha

[sand delta]

Unless of course the German reporters were using the same information Aric and I were following

[mossy star]

https://twitter.com/JakeGodin/status/1633887320007950347

Jake Godin (@JakeGodin)

@AricToler Another possible image of Andromeda, this one in Wiek in 2020, via Google Maps (name on the front looks like it could start with an "A"): https://t.co/gWm4s9ZaOZ

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 5:47 PM

oh, jake already shared here 🙂

[tired monolith]

thats true, just have to keep in mind everything could still apply but could be instead another boat

[mossy star]

i'm very late

[sand delta]

Actually cos I didn’t identify where this is

This is in Flensburg: https://maps.app.goo.gl/epx4U9mRkS9YVTtp8?g_st=ic

[whole thunder]

What does those pictures have to do with it, except it's also mola charterer?

[sand delta]

Compare:

[whole thunder]

Or is it just the connection between the video and the boat?

[sand delta]

Yes, just to identify where they set off from.

[whole thunder]

Ok, Flensburg has nothing to do with it?

[sand delta]

Mola has their Flensburg office in the south west of that complex building.

So between the mentions of Mola in the article, the name Andromeda, the location and the type (Cruiser 50), etc being right, it has to be Mola's Cruiser 50 Andromeda.

[pine umbra]

just another outpost of Mola (like Rostock is)

[hoary maple]

that they're referring to, yeah

[sand delta]

Anyone know where they ended up in the video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by3HCopNOP0

[pallid moat]

certainly looks like it

[sand delta]

In the video, Andromeda is a tiny bit below a grey line.

[lilac patrol]

oh nice, that's a better quality image than what I pulled up

[sand delta]

(So that fits)

[pallid moat]

pro-tip for user-posted images on google maps - click "Report a problem" on the relevant image and then right-click/download the image from the next page, this will download it at full resolution (with original filename, which often has a time/datestamp)

[lilac patrol]

Excellent, thanks for sharing — definitely helps!

[lilac patrol]

Appears that the file name also gives you the exact date as well (instead of just the month/year)? Which is quite useful if it's accurate.

[sand delta]

If you're trying to identify it from a stern picture, this may be useful:

Pretty distinctive.

[whole thunder]

You mean at around 07;20

[sand delta]

Yep.

At risk of speculating

https://goo.gl/maps/7CWrqWXAkFYQXXMT9

[whole thunder]

Video says from flensburg to rügen

[sand delta]

The Marie Joelle and a couple others have a similar "Garmin GPS and loudspeaker system" thing

[whole thunder]

Breege makes sense when it's the home harbour

[sand delta]

to the left (from our perspective) of the dude in the red racing suit

Another from that spot on Google Pictures.

Annoyingly they are all near identical.

[lilac patrol]

another one from Wiek (also from October 2020) https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kreidebrücke+Wiek/@54.622292,13.2842304,-18a,38.6y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOl8gUmBPWQwBbMcmUnZ44PmUyT7EpIYuYDU9Bg!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOl8gUmBPWQwBbMcmUnZ44PmUyT7EpIYuYDU9Bg%3Dw203-h152-k-no!7i4032!8i3024!4m17!1m10!4m9!1m4!2m2!1d-77.0449321!2d38.9175507!4e1!1m3!2m2!1d13.284465!2d54.621955!3m5!1s0x47ab5725f89e9323:0xe212845e22aa78e!8m2!3d54.622292!4d13.2850723!16s%2Fg%2F11fy_r6h_x

same person shared this one as the last one, actually

[sand delta]

As a secondary confirmation

Since it seems to be the length from the quay wall to the upright black poles on the smaller jetty

[lilac patrol]

Same uploader shared an image showing another view of the boats (assuming the one on the far left would be the Andromeda) https://www.google.com/maps/contrib/100862438833946391915/place/ChIJI5Oe-CVXq0cRjqcq4kUoIQ4/@54.622292,13.2850723,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m7!1e2!3m5!1sAF1QipPSUJuoNPWVSyubxCuXG1gx8pR_lfjR0VdwSzf4!2e10!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipPSUJuoNPWVSyubxCuXG1gx8pR_lfjR0VdwSzf4%3Dw365-h273-k-no!7i4032!8i3024!4m6!1m5!8m4!1e2!2s100862438833946391915!3m1!1e1

[junior moat]

for German speakers. mandatory assignment for tonight 😄
https://twitter.com/Georg_Heil/status/1633896872363409409

Georg Heil (@Georg_Heil)

Mehr zu unserer Recherche zum #Nordstream-Anschlag heute Abend um 21:45 Uhr bei @ARDKontraste im Ersten.
@GoetschenbergM @terrorismus @holger_stark

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 6:25 PM

( 2145 tune in to ARD TV )

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/Georg_Heil/status/1633897055830589444

Georg Heil (@Georg_Heil)

Darin auch Videomaterial der Yacht #Andromeda, die beim #Nordstream-Anschlag eine Rolle gespielt haben soll.

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 6:26 PM

[whole thunder]

Wonder if it's the same video footage arica and Sara found

[sand delta]

Poor guys on their yacht race 5 years ago gonna end up on national TV news

[whole thunder]

Watch-party 😉

[lilac patrol]

Another good shot of the boat, this one from 2021 in Google Maps (different account from previous 2) https://www.google.com/maps/contrib/117744741977536194491/place/ChIJI5Oe-CVXq0cRjqcq4kUoIQ4/@54.622292,13.2849412,-34a,45.6y/data=!3m7!1e2!3m5!1sAF1QipNHxY0lHxwiYcnmWQ2O6sW_Lcq2V2BjJCNRumyn!2e10!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNHxY0lHxwiYcnmWQ2O6sW_Lcq2V2BjJCNRumyn%3Dw365-h273-k-no!7i4000!8i3000!4m6!1m5!8m4!1e2!2s117744741977536194491!3m1!1e1

[junior moat]

anyone know anyone who might know how you can track ships with "Digital Selective Calling" when they have an VHF receiver .. apparently it's possible to do this if you're like a port authority and want to track ships ?

(asking because one journalist was specifically talking about vessel positioning data the investigators have available apparently)

[sand delta]

So my understanding would be

VHF DSC is just essentially calling someone over VHF with a lot of dits and dats if that makes sense.

How you might be able to track it I suppose is if you ping their unit with a call, it then has to broadcast dits and dats back to you that it received your call.

And you could use direction finding with that?

Those dits and dats are just code if that makes sense that your unit can interrogate.

[whole thunder]

I guess Port authorities and foremost traffic control have radar, for example in Rostock.
If you know what you are looking for and they store the data, I think you can track at least partially. Nothing open source as far as I know

But someone would had have to request the dsc at that time back in September.

[junior moat]

yeah that sounds about right... and would there be any entities that routinely do so ? like the charter guys would they maybe try and call their yachts every now and then?

[sand delta]

Definitely not routine.

[whole thunder]

DSC is only VHF range and a bit more maybe

[sand delta]

DSC is just using a encoded radio signal to tell the person your calling's unit to automatically tune to X Channel

[whole thunder]

Is a bit like a walky-talkie

[sand delta]

and then when they press the acknowledge button to do that, it sends a quick signal back to tell you they are on the channel

and then you just speak, idea being that you know the coast guard/another ship is listening to you when you're screaming mayday over the radio.

In theory you could do poke their unit into sending a signal back without them pressing a button, but super weird capability.

[mossy star]

If anyone wants to dig a bit more
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hNdbDh9KOpyWiqOcFqJ36Rsn3Acb0U68_K36saglOC8/edit#gid=0

I put this together fast

[whole thunder]

I may ask some people tomorrow if anyone has an idea

[mossy star]

These are the 18 Andromedas registered in Germany

Red = dead ends (AIS data showing they are innocent)

Green = interesting (capacity of 10+ listed under registration)

all the others have capacity of 4, 6, 8, or undetermined people

[whole thunder]

What info are you looking for?

[mossy star]

anything, idk

just scraped that from registration

no idea if the call signs or MMSIs can lead to any new info at all

i couldn't find anything on them other than what's listed