#Ramp (NYC) vs Figma (SF)

1 messages · Page 2 of 1

cerulean flint
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both of us might be right or wrong who knows

dull iron
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it's quite easy to see what they do and who they're run by, then make a completely valid assessment that palantir is not making the world safer

cerulean flint
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how else would we eliminate terrorists

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nobody is going to be 100 percent accurate

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at eliminating them

dull iron
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ill tell ya that i don't side with israel whatsoever

cerulean flint
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ok but do you support hamas?

cerulean flint
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do you support hamas actions when they attacked israel?

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i’m not defending israel

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i am claiming hamas is far worse

dull iron
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is this supposed to be a gotcha into tricking me to change my opinion on the fact that palantir has been to blame for civilian deaths, both in gaza and through ICE

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im not answering because i dont think it's relevant

cerulean flint
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us is an ally

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if you don’t support your allies you will inherently lose

dull iron
cerulean flint
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when someone strikes you

forest hamlet
dull iron
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yeah, quite boring when their technology is being used to profile and murder civilians

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just look at peter thiel lol the guy basically admitted the world is better off with only the billionares left

cerulean flint
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imagine someone murdering your whole family would you sit silent back?

dull iron
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again, your rage bait will not work on me so idk why you keep trying

bronze raven
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Ramp vs Figma thread getting interesting

cerulean flint
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there is an issue

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you are not ready to accept that hamas is wrong

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while i can concede israel is wrong in scenarios

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you can’t call it rage bait and back off

cerulean flint
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you can say israel is bad that is fine

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but if you don’t acknowledge hamas is equally bad then there is an issue in your thinking

dull iron
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i have not given an inkling as to what i think about hamas

forest hamlet
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the way I see it Palantirs product itself is very boring

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theyre just willing to work with whatever 40 year old outdated slop the government is still using

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ifl other companies do what palantir does

dull iron
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i am simply saying that what palantir is being used for is wrong. and the person who runs it is a pos.

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if you can't concede that, then there is a problem with your thinking too

forest hamlet
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alex karp is an oddball

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idk much about peter thiel

dull iron
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most psychopathic people ive ever seen

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watch interviews with them

cerulean flint
cerulean flint
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they all view the world in a difference perception

dull iron
cerulean flint
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only way you can create a revolutionary idea

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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they reached 400 billion valuation

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they are doing something right lol

dull iron
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because george orwell wrote about it decades ago

forest hamlet
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they just aim their product for the military

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while salesforce aims it for companies

bronze raven
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they are willing to do the work no one else will for gov

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so boring work

forest hamlet
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id hate to meet a palantir investor in person

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they call him daddy karp on reddit bro its so weird

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oddballs

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palantir does not deserve to be $400b

cerulean flint
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but to say a company worth that much is not revolutionary is inane

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if it was so simple why didn’t someone else do it

forest hamlet
forest hamlet
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just palantir aims for military contracts

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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with their "forward deployed" shit

cerulean flint
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and kill innocents

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and hide behind civilians

forest hamlet
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like the government data is all there already

cerulean flint
bronze raven
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doesnt idf kill innocents at a much higher scale

forest hamlet
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palantir just provides analytics for it

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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and has their "forward deployed" ppl manually set it up

cerulean flint
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either way none of us are right or wrong

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it is meaningless

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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government backing is huge in any field

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why do you think intel stock skyrocketed

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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they are not pure tech

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tech is different because lower costs

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better margins

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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government backing means hope

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prices aren’t rising just on vibes

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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that’s your everyday joe investing

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institutions have analysis

forest hamlet
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ever since 2020 its been a very different market

cerulean flint
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they are playing with billions

forest hamlet
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this past year especially

cerulean flint
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all tech is printing so much money

forest hamlet
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theyre not even trying to tbh theyre just trying to make consistent gains

cerulean flint
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look at citadel

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they have doubled s and p last 20 years

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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one. year

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look at since 1990

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19 percent a year

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wellington

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that is insane LMFAO

forest hamlet
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idk anything about citadels specific funds

cerulean flint
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that is the best fund

forest hamlet
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I just saw flagship and assumed theyd want that to perform the best

cerulean flint
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their flagship over last 36 years is 19 percent per year

forest hamlet
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damn 19% vs 11% spy

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that is pretty crazy

cerulean flint
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institutions have a business to run

forest hamlet
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but still they dont attach themselves to stocks

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I really dont think Palantir should be at $400B, maybe $200B with optimistic outlook

cerulean flint
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every price is correlated

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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idt theres enough hope to keep it up there

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compared to tsla which is constantly being injected with hope

cerulean flint
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what we can see is it is priced there

forest hamlet
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with the optimus thing

cerulean flint
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everything else is opinion

forest hamlet
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or maybe they do idk how they work internally

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but my point is they dont trade on belief in specific companies, its just whatever their analysis says is best for now

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so a particular stock rising or falling doesnt mean the business should realistically be there

cerulean flint
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But if a stock is overpriced

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Their analysis will cause them not to buy it

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The current price is the right price for the stock

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You may think it is a bubble hype or overvalued based on earnings

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But all of that is factored into it to create the price

heady horizon
cerulean flint
heady horizon
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Hmm

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That’s only conditional on current info tho

cerulean flint
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You can only make decisions based on current information though

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The everyday news changes is what causes fluctuations in price

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If it were not priced correctly

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Far more people would beat the s&p

heady horizon
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Well sure I agree that the normal person cannot find edge

cerulean flint
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Only stocks you can claim misprcied are penny stocks

cerulean flint
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I am not saying they are perfect

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But you cant say the market trades on belief

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Or that palantir should be 200B

heady horizon
cerulean flint
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You can believe in anything

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But too many people think all these companies are fully valued on air and hype

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And the market is going to crash LOL

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There is a lot of analysis that goes to pricing each thing

heady horizon
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That the market is pricing a future which is low probability

cerulean flint
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I agree with that

forest hamlet
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I think if the market was more rational it would be easier

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More predictable

cerulean flint
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Then 100% of your edge would be gone

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Low latency people would take it up

forest hamlet
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We have no idea how they make decisions

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Well maybe u do but I don't 🥀

cerulean flint
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I dont either that in depth

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Not perfect

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But the closest they can get

forest hamlet
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All investing would be just be predicting the news which is impossible

cerulean flint
heady horizon
cerulean flint
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@forest hamlet do you think market is mispriced enough for you to have edge?

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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I just buy stocks I think are undervalued and it works sometimes and it doesn't work other times

cerulean flint
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Based on the fact you are smarter

forest hamlet
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But mostly due to amd and google

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I didn't do anything smart

cerulean flint
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Only one year sample size

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And everyone is a genius in a bull run LOL

forest hamlet
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I mean

cerulean flint
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I think a lot of people beat just because of google crushing the s&p

forest hamlet
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I don't see how me saying stocks aren't perfectly priced means that I think I'm good enough to exploit that

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Clearly quants are good enough to exploit it

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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And the number has reduced fast

cerulean flint
heady horizon
forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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You are gambling

forest hamlet
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That's boring

forest hamlet
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That's the fun part

heady horizon
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Anything you’ve made is through sheer luck

cerulean flint
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You will inherently lose money in the long run

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Doing this

cerulean flint
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But if you like the adrenaline boost then ig it is good LMFAO

heady horizon
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😭

cerulean flint
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What % of portfolio do you gamble

forest hamlet
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I'm not doing this to make 15% a year consistently on my internship savings bro

cerulean flint
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It compounds

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You wont see it now

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But 20 years down you will.

forest hamlet
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When I start underpeformng the market I'll buy etfs

cerulean flint
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In case you lose it all

forest hamlet
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Idk if I'll get ro or not lol

cerulean flint
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Right now

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Oh but like big tech intern?

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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And then when you lose some money you take more risk to win it back

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It is human instinct

heady horizon
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U should listen to @cerulean flint ngl

forest hamlet
rugged saddle
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is ts even about ramp vs figma anymore

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
heady horizon
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Everything he’s saying is spot on

rugged saddle
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😂 fair

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Then it is fine

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Most cant

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That is the problem

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You seem decently smart

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You will probably be fine

forest hamlet
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If I go below I'll just buy spy or smthn

heady horizon
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If u don’t care then sure

forest hamlet
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Stakes are still low

heady horizon
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Ur taking risk with no clear edge

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There’s no point ur just throwing away money

cerulean flint
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Or go to the casino

forest hamlet
heady horizon
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lol

forest hamlet
heady horizon
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If u have the opportunity I recommend interning / working at a trading firm for a bit

forest hamlet
heady horizon
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Then I’d recommend taking a probability / stochastic processes class

heady horizon
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Just tryna help b4 u become homeless fam

forest hamlet
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Like chillax

heady horizon
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Sure bro

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Safe living

forest hamlet
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Do u think Im all in on GameStop or smthn bro

heady horizon
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U literally said u vibe invest

forest hamlet
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Like idt I'm in danger of losing everything

heady horizon
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Whatever brings u joy bro

forest hamlet
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@cerulean flint thoughts?

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no news btw

dark wyvern
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wtf

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meanwhile my portfolio is getting brutally assaulted

frank stone
forest hamlet
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Point is that he thinks all stocks are perfectly priced based on all available news

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Yet no news --> +$1B to market cap

frank stone
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Yeah u good lol

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I’m a bag holder

frank stone
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Figured it all out

forest hamlet
frank stone
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I averaged down too soon 😭

snow crest
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why is this chat still going

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everyone stop yapping

somber prism
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bc it went to the stock market bc someone was saying every stock a perfectly priced

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Which makes no sense bc then nothing would change

snow crest
forest hamlet
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Chill crodie 🥀

somber prism
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i agree u arent the person i was talking abt

cerulean flint
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Causing a rebound

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That was the news

cerulean flint
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I said near perfect

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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anyone with eyes could see it was oversold

cerulean flint
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These are the biggest players in the financial industry

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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and ive been arguing with you about this for a while now

cerulean flint
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You are gambling

forest hamlet
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that its oversold

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even before it went up today

cerulean flint
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Issue is you are vibing all of this out

forest hamlet
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+-20%?

cerulean flint
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You have no statistical or fundamental backing

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Stocks are accuratelty priced based on CURRENT news

cerulean flint
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You have your answer

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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I think any logical person can understand what I am saying

forest hamlet
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they just brought attention to the fact its oversold

cerulean flint
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I cant convince a gambler

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LOL

forest hamlet
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it didnt suddenly become oversold when the bank announced it

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it already was

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Citadel has satellites in space to track parking lots

forest hamlet
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renaissance did

cerulean flint
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They are far far smarter than you

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Rentech has the top PHDs

forest hamlet
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warren buffett beat spy for half a century

cerulean flint
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There is a reason only geniuses beat the market

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Not people like us

cerulean flint
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You are proving my point

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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The everyday joe is not beating the market

forest hamlet
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theyd be gambling just as much as me

cerulean flint
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It is not perfectly

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Near perfect

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And they are not gambling

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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They have so much more information than you

cerulean flint
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Do I run the markets?

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Quit gambling

forest hamlet
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like ur the one making the claim

cerulean flint
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You will not beat the market

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It is simple

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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like the markets are efficient not perfect

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as the other guy said

forest hamlet
warm thicket
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Would go ramp personally

forest hamlet
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The Grossman–Stiglitz Paradox is a paradox introduced by Sanford J. Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz in a joint publication in American Economic Review in 1980 that argues perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in whic...

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not impossible tho

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investment bankers cant really take risks

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if they lose money they lose their job

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prop firms

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actually they make money in other ways tbh

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sup crodie

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hows toronto

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W

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also

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a number of quant firms beat the market

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and investment bankers are just trying not to lose money, theyre not trying to beat the market

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they do still beat the market by exploiting inefficiency in it

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nah

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warren buffett does beat the market pretty consistently and his portfolio is like Apple, Coke, heinz, etc

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hedge funds arent trying to make as many gains as possible

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theyre trying to consistently grow with a low risk of losing investors money

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they cant take the same risks a regular person can

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he still beat the market past 5 years

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probably

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still the larger a firm the less risk it can afford to take

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if these companies lose like 5% in a quarter its disastrous

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if a regular person does its not rly a big deal

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thats the main advantage individuals have over firms

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theyd have to justify it to clients, shareholders, etc

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I mean these companies are made up of people whose jobs rely on their returns

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its easier to make a bit less than SPY consistently and keep your job than to risk getting fired

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these are tech companies not hedge funds tho

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theyd rather burn $100billion than lose the AI race

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microsoft is also not doing that well

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nvidia went back on their word to buy $100B openai

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fair but theyre still very small investments compared to their total portfolio

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like some hedge funds do VC stuff but its still a very small part of their total investments

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idk

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like theyre still not taking nearly as much of a risk

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as an individual investor could

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cause 5% of a big hedge funds portfolio is billions of dollars

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I think this applies more to HFT

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like u said markets are efficient and stocks follow random walks

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theres no free money in it but if you try to buy high quality undervalued stocks

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you can still make "free money"

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like the idea that if theres an opportunity, its already been taken kind of is the same idea as "everything is perfectly priced"

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there would be no point in buying anything besides the indexes if that were true

forest hamlet
forest hamlet
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but still

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damn u watched the video too

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oh u didnt

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he basically used exactly that phrase

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theres a video on why u cant beat the market I watched it a while ago

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professional investors have different priorities bro

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if you give a professional $10k vs $1billion theyre gonna make differnt decisions

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and if you offer to pay them like $300k a year if they make returns same as the index, theyll probably make returns around the index

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I think its undervalued

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back to the paradox

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the index only works because professional investors dont buy it

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ts crazy bro

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bros 5 steps ahead

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but also like

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Adobe offered to pay $20B for it 3 years ago

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its now worth $12B and they only grew since then

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also say a hedge fund has a $50B portfolio, even if they made 50% on a $50million position in figma it would barely put a dent in their YTD

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like these firms realistically cant take risks even if they wanted to

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theyre too big to meaningfully benefit

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like for a small investor say your portfolio is like 50% SPY, 25% SMH, 25% whatever you want

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idt its that crazy to think that portfolio might perform better than SPY over time

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they can influence but even if their bets pay off they wont beat the market

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their bets just cant be big enough to actually move the needle

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theres only so much of a $12B company you can buy

karmic ibex
forest hamlet
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ts true

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I was giving an example that you can beat the market without walmart satelllites and shit

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he prob wouldnt do nearly as well today tho

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is spy not the index ppl refer to as "the market"

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oh, after adjusting for risk definitely not

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but to me 15% is 15% lol so

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I would count that as beating the market anyway

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money is money bro

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like academically its a pointless benchmark but if you made 15% you made 15% ykwim

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like higher risk tolerance is the main advantage individuals have over whales

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so if your benchmark adjusts based on risk then idt beating the market is possible

brazen drum
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what is this convo even about

bitter prawn
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Ramp better

flint notch
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what stock do i buy to beat spy

forest hamlet
flint notch
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where do u buy that

forest hamlet
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Just buy the 3x leveraged actually

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What could go wrong

flint notch
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fr

eager imp
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@flint notch @forest hamlet hello🥀

forest hamlet
eager imp
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Whats crodie

forest hamlet
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its ebk

eager imp
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I don't have ebk

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Lets why Im ngmiPepeHands

forest hamlet
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gng

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ts fried

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youll learn the ebk once you set foot in toronto

eager imp
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Btw China is ahead in hardware and large scale manufacturing, but not for software

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Unitree sell hardware but they are smart that they cut down hardware cost by a lot and open source their software SDK

flint notch
eager imp
forest hamlet
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@cerulean flint thoughts?

brazen drum
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congrats

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shouldve full ported ur account

forest hamlet
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@cerulean flint

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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Cathie Wood is

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Good job

forest hamlet
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Figma was clearly undervalued lol

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The market was wrong

cerulean flint
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Lets meet in 20 years and see if you beat the S&P

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Good Luck LMFAO

forest hamlet
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But ur theory that everything is perfectly priced is just straight up wrong

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Nah

cerulean flint
forest hamlet
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There's a reason cathie wood and that insider r spam buying tens of millions $ worth of shares

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Not rly

forest hamlet
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Gotta invent the argument 20 years in the future and pretend you won then

cerulean flint
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Anyone logical will agree with me

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Good luck to you

forest hamlet
cerulean flint
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A broken clock is right twice a day

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If you can beat the S&P consistently by a margin your name will go down in history

forest hamlet
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The more money you have the harder it is

cerulean flint
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ETFs and chill

forest hamlet
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No point just buying ETFs with it

cerulean flint
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I might be wrong I might be right we need more time

solar frigate
forest hamlet
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Do that when you're old bruh

solar frigate
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tech internship pay is like 30k

cerulean flint
solar frigate
forest hamlet
# cerulean flint

Wow after 20 years you can buy yourself a Toyota Camry with the profit

cerulean flint
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This is accounting for inflation

solar frigate
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imo long-term should be like 40 yrs

forest hamlet
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Y'all will be old then

cerulean flint
solar frigate
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also 10% instead of 7%

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i dont like inflation correction

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bc without hysa it's relative

cerulean flint
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then 1.35M after 40

solar frigate
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like 10% relative to cash

forest hamlet
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Im not shilling it idc if anyone else buys it

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Fr tho

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Adobe offered to buy figma for $20B years ago

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Rn they're at $16B and they only grew since then

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so youre comparing Figma to nvidia

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so u think AI will replace them?

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its kinda a similar thing tho

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doesnt everyone use Figma

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and agree its the best

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I wouldnt have bought if not for that

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their net dollar retention is rly high

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meaning customers who subscribe stay subscribed

solar frigate
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figma unprofitable

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looks pretty risky

forest hamlet
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amazon was unprofitable for how many years? and uber

solar frigate
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u have to compare to what else exists in the market tho

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40% yoy growth isn't that impressive at that valuation

forest hamlet
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for companies

cerulean flint
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He is a brick wall

solar frigate
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nvidia 80% yoy growth, highly profitable, 25 forward pe
figma 40% yoy growth, unprofitable, 100 forward pe

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and nvidia has a much clearer path/less risk

forest hamlet
solar frigate
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they're not even close tho 😭

solar frigate
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there's so many companies that look more attractive than figma rn

forest hamlet
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yea and I hold some of those companies

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but I think Figma has a lot of growth potential

solar frigate
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i feel like if ur bullish on figma u have to think they're gonna grow much faster than they did this yr

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seems optimistic to me with AI and everything

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i mean also there's just so much risk

forest hamlet
solar frigate
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even if u think ur right there's a lotta variance

forest hamlet
solar frigate
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if figma's space is a big enough market

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i think labs will try to encroach

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eventually

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it definitely isn't yet

forest hamlet
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im not looking for a very long term hold, just another month or 2 then im out

solar frigate
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bruh

forest hamlet
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I think $20B market cap is fair enough for them rn

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if it hits that ill sell my original stake

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and leave the profit

solar frigate
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this sounds like just gambling to me

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$20b just pulled outta thin air

forest hamlet
solar frigate
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it seems to me this bet is more based on hope/gut feel than an actual thesis

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at which point it's just gambling imo

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esp with a 2 mo horizon lol

forest hamlet
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if it works it works

forest hamlet
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Good thing I didn't buy at IPO then

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Figma was overvalued at IPO and tanked to fair value but overcorrected imo

eager imp
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Hi kanu so cool

winter junco
# cerulean flint Anyone logical will agree with me

You argued that the markets are the best valuations of companies. Which isn’t true.

If we go by the idea that a company has an optimal intrinsic value than it’s pretty accepted that markets will oscillate between being under and over this intrinsic values. These oscillations will be very large for tech stocks

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Markets in the long term estimate intrinsic value well but in the short term they don’t mean much

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There really isnt one. I think the argument just stemmed that people were saying figma didn’t have a bullish future bc it’s post IPO and dropped a lot in valuation

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And to instead go ramp bc they’re pre ipo or something

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Yes they are but I’d probably argue there’s more upside to a company that just dropped to 1/5th its peak value than a company that’s already at its highest valuation. Like yeah investing in figma is risky and not worth investing over the s&p unless u know something.

But like realistically figma going back to 150 (5x) is more likely than a company at an all time high doubling.

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Bc figma going back to 150 just has to regain whatever ppl saw in it originally. For Nvidia to double it would have to find the next big innovation

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But ig expected value in their stock growth probably all similar

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I just think highest upside is gonna be on the stock that just dropped

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Idk anything about figma as a company

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Only their product

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Which I do like but idk if they make money or what the competition is like lol

forest hamlet
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theyre much faster than alternatives

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penpot is the closest alternative but its too slow afaik

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since figma rewrote the browser rendering in C++ and webassembly or smthn

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idk much about it

forest hamlet
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they all use figma tho

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and figma has a desktop version thats just a wrapper around the browser version

solar frigate
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Prediction markets are verifiable so we know that crowd is very accurate

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I don’t think it’s unreasonable to extend that to the stock market

solar frigate
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i mean yeah partially, but it happens in the stock market too

old zinc
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@cerulean flint @forest hamlet i think there is 1 way to settle this

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drop a screenshot of your robinhood portfolio percentage earnings all time.

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i remmeber when I put allocation to buy 1k worth of figma and robinhood gave me 1 30 dollar allocation

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😔

old zinc
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why not bro

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the percentage not ur portfolio

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r we dead ass 😭

forest hamlet
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Idt @cerulean flint is gonna say it either

old zinc
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something not adding up

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i'm not telling you to release your SSN

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or personal info

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yeah exactly

forest hamlet
old zinc
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i dead ass don't even think he trades like that

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he acting like the percent is the king info

forest hamlet
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You can't bait me into sharing a screenshot of my Robinhood lmao

old zinc
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maybe keyloggers shouldn't even steal passwords just steal the HTML element of the percentage YTD

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clearly that shi valuable

old zinc
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i'm already in hustlers university PhD bro

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i'm him of trading cmon now

forest hamlet
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W crodie

old zinc
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optiver and js keep hitting me up by i told them ima do my own thing

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it's just me myself and I bro, i said see you at the top and u misunderstood me bro

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yeah i make minecraft mods now.

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people can't respsect the hustle

neat cove
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@stuck rain @hot torrent @zealous flicker @quiet path @jovial sun help a man out