probability distribution question

[fallen tusk]

3% of balloons in a factory are defective. What is the probability that the last of 5 balloons will be defective?

[earnest mulch]

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[fallen tusk]

Apparently one of the following distributions is needed: binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, uniform.

In what world is it not simply 3% though

[rain solstice]

In the world where the question was misstated and/or misunderstood.

Can we see the question as written?

[sterile talon]

I believe the answer is 0.15

[nimble kernel]

total number of balloons?

[fallen tusk]

so what it meant was "whats the probability that only the 5th balloon is defective"

as in the first 4 cannot be defective

[little lagoon]

we may never know. It's the probabilty

[fallen tusk]

its (0.97)^4(0.03)

[little lagoon]

like say we have 100 ballons and 3 of them are defective.

then 1 ballon is defective out of 100/3 ballons

wouldn't the last 5 ballon has the same

I understand the question as factory produces ballons at %3 percentage of defectiveness

so the next ballon is %3 and other one is %3 and so on until the 5th one as well

%3^5