Hello @here,
As I mentioned in a couple posts above, the giveaway system is scheduled to get a rewrite to make projecting the data of win rates, ticket counts, distributions, etc. much more easier. However, due to future updates in the library, I have had to put it off until the newest version is deployed.
However, this doesn't mean I can pull in the same data (around 99% accurate) using makeshift scripts and what not. This "data" that I want to present is mainly to clear the air around how the ticket system we introduced ACTUALLY increases the chances of a ranked user winning a giveaway.
WARNING: There's a lot of numbers and math ahead so, if you dislike math but still want to know how things have changed, refer to the graph provided below which simplifies the data into visually appealing bar graphs.
The numbers you see below were ported over around 9 hours before the giveaway ended so, expect a +/- of 150-200 participants from the actual data
Now, to get to those juicy numbers
. The giveaway had a total of 22524 participants. Out of this, users with the Muted roles are purged which reduces the total users down to 22363. You can find the exact number of ranked users in the excel sheet linked below.
Here is the part that might get confusing. The chances of a ranked user winning gets buffed since they get multiple entries. This effectively means that there are more tickets in the pool than the number of participants. Using such a method, the chances of a ranked user winning went up by a drastic 16.21% from a mere 1.49%.
These numbers and probabilities are not something that the average user is expected to understand. However, for the curious lot of you, the data and formulas exist. So, if you do understand this data, you will come to a conclusion that the ticket system in place increases the chances of a ranked user winning the item.
Note: Like I mentioned above, this data is not simple to understand but, if you want to learn more about how this data was obtained, feel free to drop your queries in #old-general-discussion and I will help you understand the concepts to the best of my abilities. (I will upload the excel sheet soon)