Flawless crafts are still as uncommon as legendary crafts | Shop Titans | Page 1

signal venture Oct 23, 2023, 8:09 PM

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Something still seems to be wrong with the odds for crafting flawless items. I am not sure if it affects everyone, people without the Legendary Craftsmanship talent, or just people like me that had the talent but no longer have it.

I initially speced into crafting to get the Legendary Craftsmanship talent when it was released with v14.2. I then respeced out of crafting before the LCoG prior to the v14.3 release

Based on my collection book stats I have crafted 880 of the following T13s with only 2 flawless crafts since the talent was released.

Lampcaster: 115 crafts, 0 flawless
Gothita Coat: 49 crafts, 0 flawless
Teeny Top Hat: 45 crafts, 0 flawless
Final Death: 121 crafts, 0 flawless
Serial Quiller: 172 crafts, 1 flawless (may have been a multi-craft)
Bleakspire Charm: 64 crafts, 1 flawless
Business Suit: 314 crafts, 0 flawless (some of those crafts (at most 100) were with the Legendary Craftsmanship talent before the latest update)

tranquil stratusBOT Oct 23, 2023, 8:09 PM

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@signal venture

[This is an automated bot response]

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signal venture Oct 23, 2023, 8:13 PM

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nerilea#22685

all platforms, but mostly android

slender pelican Oct 23, 2023, 8:17 PM

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From the past 10 days, you've collected twice as much Flawless than Epic and Legendary combined

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We'll still have a look at it, but when the system was changed from 14.2 to 14.3, we made statistical analysis and the odds were correctly represented with and without the talents

signal venture Oct 23, 2023, 8:25 PM

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Thank you, I know it can be hard to avoid confirmation bias on RNG related issues, but it feels really off that I have so many T13 crafts with so few of them being flawless, when before I just took for granted that I would get 1 before or shortly after mastering the bp.

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 9:49 PM

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Epic and Legendary are nowhere to be found.. I've crafted 120 superior and 1 flawless on max ascended enchants.. I moved off the line because the mini events were messing with the % chance.

To add to it, I had the legendary craftsmanship going full throttle and was crafting a fair amount of epics and legendary even after the nerf... As soon as I was able to add the barter max surcharge, everything died all at once.

You can't tell me there isn't some sort of flaw in the system which is affecting the overall performance of the crafting line. Whether it be mini events or trees clashing with each other.

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 9:56 PM

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Initial findings with the talent on shivs today
The number of flawless is accurate with what we had before

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(0.68% base chance, was 0.67% before, so way into the error margin)

spare wedge Oct 23, 2023, 9:57 PM

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I noticed it with the blood monarch outfit, bleakspire charm, the final death and gothita frock coat... at least I came up with some notable ones, perhaps a perfect one for the charm and one for the definitive death... and perhaps only one notable for the gothita. And that's it, all the other specimens I created just normal.
Usually even long before mastering them I happened to create perfect ones, sometimes an epic or even a legendary one, but now I have to say thank you if I come up with something remarkable.
(sorry if the translation is not very clear... English is not my mother tongue and I struggle to remember some of the game terms in English,so what you read is the stuff of Google Translate😅 )

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 9:57 PM

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Would still need stats without the talent

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But with it no issue to be found, unless it's specific to some items

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 9:58 PM

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You can't base it just on shiv's... I would like to see the list on enchants T12 please

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fully ascended

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or ascended up to the quality chance increase at least

sick swift Oct 23, 2023, 9:59 PM

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Might could record your own data, then?

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 9:59 PM

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I will.. I've crafted 165 enchants and spirits today and have 3 flawless and 14 superior to show for it

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I will continue to craft and update you

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1 flawless water, green are water and kraken

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current inventory

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:03 PM

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You can't use inventory for that

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Multicraft mess things up

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:08 PM

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Ahh okay..

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I'll adjust the numbers and start fresh

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Here are the starting crafting numbers. I'll keep track from here for my reference..

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Gonna focus on the Chimera

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:14 PM

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Amount crafted is also increased by 2 on multicraft

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:14 PM

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I get it

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but this is just a starting point

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Doesn't matter how many I've crafted in total. because I'm starting the count from 0

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that number is just for reference..

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:19 PM

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Also on chimera, since the number are lower due to less quality boost, you'll need way more craft to get something relevant

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(1000 crafts would be ~50% relative error with 99% confidence)

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(while on shiv it's "only" a ~35% error rate)

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:21 PM

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I'm on fire

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stFaceHappy

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Where did you get 50% and 99%.. I'm not understanding your calculations..

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:28 PM

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval

Binomial proportion confidence interval

In statistics, a binomial proportion confidence interval is a confidence interval for the probability of success calculated from the outcome of a series of success–failure experiments (Bernoulli trials). In other words, a binomial proportion confidence interval is an interval estimate of a success probability p when only the number of experiment...

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Or basically z * sqrt(p * (1-p) / n), with p your computed probability, n your sample size

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And z = 1.96 for 95% confidence, 2.57 for 99%, 3 for 99.73%

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:29 PM

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It's a game...
I don't have time to read all of that..

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holy hell.. you have patience..

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You sending me that just made me close excel and say forget it...

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:31 PM

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Just means you need a lot of crafts to get something valuable

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Otherwise it's just enough to raise suspicion

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:31 PM

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that I can agree on with you.

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however, I'm focusing around the fact that the tree is interfering with another tree and/or mini events... not the probability ratio due to amount of crafts

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:33 PM

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What are you comparing to to prove it's interfering?

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You need to compare with the rate you should get

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:34 PM

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Well it was never determined whether quality chance did or did not affect the crafting tree

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:34 PM

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Which is around 2.34% flawless for chimera ascended, masrtered, with line bonus

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If you get < 1% flawless on 1000 craft, it's enough to be pretty sure something is wrong

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If you're in the 1.2%-3.6%, you're under the error margin due to your sample size, so this result should be considered normal until you increase your sample size

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:36 PM

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well I mean... the crafts are very sporadic currently ... so getting that information would be hard, however crafting all day with 4 flawless I guess is okay..

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:37 PM

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(Which is why tests are often made with shivs or the like - faster to craft, higher quality chance, so less crafts needed)

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(And quality chance are supposed to be the same on all items, prior to quality bonus)

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(However there has been bugs specific to some items in the past, like the fresh enchant preventing quality crafts)

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:38 PM

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I appreciate the infor Ilod

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nice to have an actualy discussion around it

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:39 PM

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So yeah, for now, unless there's an item-specific bug, I would say at least there's no issue when you have the crafting talent

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(Well, except during the top quality event :p)

modest narwhal Oct 23, 2023, 10:40 PM

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LOL

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I was waiting for that

slender pelican Oct 23, 2023, 10:40 PM

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open osprey Initial findings with the talent on shivs today The number of flawless is accura...

When you say "what we had before", are you talking about 14.2 to 14.3 ?

open osprey Oct 23, 2023, 10:51 PM

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Way before

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(from user computed chance years ago)

signal venture Oct 25, 2023, 10:50 PM

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Finally got a flawless Business Suit 🎉

I think it was on the 335th craft. I had a few that finished at the same time.

open osprey Oct 25, 2023, 10:58 PM

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~ same chance as getting a legendary in the first 6 craft of a blueprint.

lavish wave Oct 25, 2023, 10:58 PM

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At this point might have to video record all crafts being claimed.

open osprey Oct 25, 2023, 10:59 PM

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I'm at 4.500 shivs with the talent. Pretty confident there's no impact on those with it. I'll respec once I have the gems to buy the last two hero slots, so I'll probably test on shiv without the talent at this time to be sure.

modest narwhal Oct 26, 2023, 12:15 PM

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At about 60 chimeras I hit the legendary.

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So now I’m confused. Lol.

fallen notch Oct 27, 2023, 6:47 AM

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232 crafted no flawless

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i have 230 in my inventory + the 2 donated

slender pelican Oct 27, 2023, 1:14 PM

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fallen notch 232 crafted no flawless

I've ran the numbers again with the Platinum War Axe, with and without talent and they are spot on

fallen notch Oct 27, 2023, 1:16 PM

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I guess the game hates me haha 😂

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Thanks for checking

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YAY

open osprey Oct 27, 2023, 1:19 PM

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232 craft, I guess with multicraft it's like 200 rolls, ~45 without the x2

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Average is only around 3 flawless? So unlucky, but not that much

slender pelican Oct 27, 2023, 1:19 PM

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If some of you would be interested in some kind of pity system where it would better average odds in short runs, #1037756743549190278 would be a good place to tell the team about it

fallen notch Oct 27, 2023, 1:19 PM

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Well I had roughly 450 bangles. Fully ascended

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Oh a pity system sounds great

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I also have the talent that gives 0 components used

open osprey Oct 27, 2023, 1:20 PM

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Well, it would help a lot avoiding the reccurent "random doesn't work" posts

fallen notch Oct 27, 2023, 1:21 PM

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So I’m not sure on the amount crafted without counting multi as 2

open osprey Oct 27, 2023, 1:25 PM

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Should be around 180 (if you were randomly lucky with the 25% MC chance)

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~35 at 1% chance, 145 at 1.67% chance

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~6.15% chance of not getting a single flawless

fallen notch Oct 27, 2023, 8:34 PM

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I guess 6% isn’t so low that it seems unreasonable

sweet wave Oct 27, 2023, 9:04 PM

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Chuck, can you run the numbers for this one?

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it does seem impossible to get the flawless one

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epic version - barely 2 per day and legendary completely unavailable on the market

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it surely isn't a popular item for crafting but still these numbers are surprisingly low

slender pelican Oct 28, 2023, 6:19 PM

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sweet wave Chuck, can you run the numbers for this one?

Give me your Shopkeeper#12345 and I'll run the numbers on your account

dry beacon Oct 28, 2023, 6:21 PM

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slender pelican Give me your Shopkeeper#12345 and I'll run the numbers on your account

Sharak#88618
He posted it in another bug report thread*

slender pelican Oct 28, 2023, 7:07 PM

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sweet wave Chuck, can you run the numbers for this one?

Crafted 1 millions Windrunner Hat using your account and the odds have been spot on

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I also analyzed your collection book. Looking only at Tier 8 items, assuming all items collected were crafted, the ratio of uncommon, flawless, epic and legendary looks correct, so the example given was not representative of the state of your collection book

sweet wave Oct 28, 2023, 8:12 PM

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slender pelican Crafted 1 millions Windrunner Hat using your account and the odds have been spot...

ok thanks 🙂

fallen notch Oct 28, 2023, 9:57 PM

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Have you come across accounts that buck the trend by a significant amount?? Maybe try 1 billion haha 😂

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https://tenor.com/view/dr-evil-one-billion-mike-meyers-austin-powers-hehe-gif-11108917

Tenor

forest wadi Oct 28, 2023, 10:26 PM

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signal venture Oct 29, 2023, 2:34 AM

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I think the real question is, what is the correct distribution? Please tell us 🤪

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Chuck has confirmed that nothing is amiss with the craft odds/distribution, but has that changed recently?

If they changed the distribution without telling us then things very likely work as expected from their end, but when we were all use to getting a blue from 1:20 or 1:50 crafts, and now it is closer to 1:100 or 1:300, it is a pretty noticeable change.

open osprey Oct 29, 2023, 2:46 AM

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From what I tested with 6k shivs, I've got pretty much the same results as years ago

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(though getting "official" rates would be more efficient, of course, but I'm working with what we have)

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(and that wouldn't really stop people reporting bugs if they didn't get a flawless in 300 crafts)

slender pelican Oct 29, 2023, 3:00 AM

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open osprey From what I tested with 6k shivs, I've got pretty much the same results as years...

Yes, the odds have remained the same

fallen notch Oct 29, 2023, 4:01 AM

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slender pelican Yes, the odds have remained the same

and those odds are?

elder pond Oct 29, 2023, 4:28 AM

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I just made 8 skull crushers for a champion request
6 normal
1 Superior
1 flawless.

I don't have long term data, but I've been trying to keep track of groupings like that and how many flawless I get for this post.

slender pelican Oct 29, 2023, 5:10 AM

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fallen notch and those odds are?

Let me explain how this started and why I think there's no issue

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The "Flawless is the new legendary" issue was initially raised when we introduced the talent tree, where having a specific talent would increase your Epic & Legendary crafting odds

fallen notch Oct 29, 2023, 5:12 AM

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oh i see

slender pelican Oct 29, 2023, 5:12 AM

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Being the first time crafting odds could be unevenly raised, it exposed a behavior that was previously unknown to the players, and our designers, but very much as I had designed the system, where odds were "X% of getting at least Y Quality" and not "X% of getting Y Quality" (Yes, there is a difference)

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This behavior was subsequently changed to the latter in 14.3, and with this system change, odds had to be adjusted in order to remain the same. We made statistical analysis between both systems (14.2 & 14.3) to ensure that odds remained the same, we're talking about hundreds of millions of crafts

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Just now, I went back to 14.2, using Sharak account, made 10 runs of 1 millions "Windrunner Hat", went to 14.3, made another 10 runs of 1 millions "Windrunner Hat", and reconfirmed that the odds of crafting any qualities are exactly the same between 14.2 and 14.3

fallen notch Oct 29, 2023, 5:13 AM

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well 10 million seems like a good enough sample size to me

slender pelican Oct 29, 2023, 5:21 AM

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I believe we can safely put this one to rest

tiny silo Oct 29, 2023, 10:41 AM

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Thanks for the transparency Chuck 👍

#Flawless crafts are still as uncommon as legendary crafts