what if instead of a presidential republic, the kingdom transitionned to a constitutionnal monarchy

[tacit inlet]

I asked myself what would have happened if instead of deposing the king, the revolution disminished his position to a symbolic one with limited power.
Would have been Rikard who stage a coup instead of Luderin ?
Would Tarquin Soll have been crowned as the successor of Edmund ?
Would Anton have ever come to the power and if, how he would have ?
How Sordland would have reacted to the Wehlen civil war ?

[ionic nimbus]

Wisci would still be president

So I imagine nothing much would change

Except monarchist sentiment among Sordish nationalists will be much stronger

Maybe Valken will try and bring back the monarchy during the civil war

[lean valve]

Why would he try to bring it back if it already is there, just a bit powerless

[ionic nimbus]

I mean bring the king back in power

[rapid glade]

Arthur would be the Prime Minister, or Luderin would make himself Regent or something.

I don't know if Soll would still try to establish a Republic since there would be none.

[cerulean falcon]

1. Maybe, would be interesting.
2. God no, Egmound would probably force the crown onto his daughter Jule. But he could take over as PM
3. Maybe as PM
4. I doubt they would directly intervene but throw their support behind the non-communist side.

[tacit inlet]

When a monarchy supports anti-royalist democrat so the contana supported side doesn't take over his neighbour

[cerulean falcon]

Democracies tend to tolerate monarchies more than the communists do

and vice versa

[crystal schooner]

I think the path to the monarchy surviving in Sordland would have been a very different monarch

the revolution ultimately grew out of Egmund's failed wars, domestic misgovernance, and a looming succession crisis

no Revolution though, no Soll - Soll remains an embittered Colonel in the Sordish Armed Forces

(Soll had a lot of reasons to hate the monarchy, but perhaps one that's overlooked is it might have held him back from promotion, preferring officers from much more impressive families)

(Soll always seems to hold a particular ire towards those that he feels sought to thwart his greatness)

[spring prawn]

I doubt that Wisci would have allowed Egmund to remain as a symbolic king considering he was the leader of the Republican faction and most of the nation had turned against the monarchy by 1923. But if he were to allow Egmund to remain in symbolic role it require at least one major change to the timeline. And the easiest one is that Egmund simply doesn’t make as many bad decisions which tarnish his reputation amongst the populace

Another possibility is that when Wisci marches on Holsord, the first army doesn’t join which gives Egmund a chance to retain power. But seeing that he almost lost his throne it would make sense that Egmund might try to appease the populace which had worked for him previously in the past

[lean valve]

Something similar to the German Empire then perhaps?

[spring prawn]

Potentially

Really varies on circumstances Egmund finds himself in this scenario

[rapid glade]

Although it would mean that there would be less or more instability? Considering it would be a "bloodless coup" kinda.

[cerulean falcon]

A looming succession crisis which only came from the government's refusal to recognize his daughter as heir, and of the two wars we know of both went ok to great for Sordland but th e domestic misgovernance is impossible to justify

[crystal schooner]

the war with Rumberg and Valgsland was unnecessary and resulted in Sordland losing its fleet, being blockaded and suffering the hardships of such, and effectively being stalemated in the forest of sorrows

it was pretty much a disaster

[cerulean falcon]

Rumburg was a defensive war

[crystal schooner]

nope

they started it by breaking a treaty

Rumberg had access to Sordland's waterways as determined by a prior treaty and the King just...broke it, because

[cerulean falcon]

And it was rumburg who attacked with out a declaration of war

[crystal schooner]

yes, after telling the King that they'd so if he broke the treaty

when the King broke the treaty he was quite aware it would lead to war

[cerulean falcon]

And Valgsland was under the Renan not Egmound(unless there was one I didn’t see)

[crystal schooner]

it was a war that accomplished nothing and caused Sordland considerable loss

and it didn't need to happen

it was a failure

[cerulean falcon]

It’s still a defensive war and as far as we know left sordland the same territorially

[crystal schooner]

the first is debatable (I disagree) and the second is irrelevant

[cerulean falcon]

It was defensive war that ended in a stalemate, that’s a pretty good success

[crystal schooner]

it wasn't defensive, it was caused by Sordland breaking a treaty

[cerulean falcon]

But it was Rumburg who pulled the trigger

[crystal schooner]

they warned Sordland they would take up arms if he broke the treaty

he broke the treaty in full expectation of what would happen

he did not need to break the treaty

and he ultimately gained nothing from it

sure he economically injured Rumberg, but at cost of thousands of lives, his navy, and a considerable amount of economic damage

[cerulean falcon]

When did Valgsland get involved

[crystal schooner]

when they sank the navy in the fire's of Conriat

and then blockaded Sordland's entire coast

[cerulean falcon]

In the 1700s under the Renan

That was an entirely different war and Sordish government

[crystal schooner]

oh I got that mixed up

but Valgsland did get involved and blockade Sordland

[lean valve]

Anyways it was Egmund who started the provocative action

In the months prior to the conflict, tensions became increasingly heightened after King Egmund cancelled the Friendship Deal between Sordland and Rumburg, which allowed Rumburgian ships to use the Sourne River, which flows from Alferdon, Crimsrad, Estord and Lachaven to reach the Markian Sea. King Alfred II of Rumburg reiterated his position: the closure of the Sourne River to Rumburgian shipping would be a cause for war. King Egmund announced in May that the river would be closed to all Rumburgian vessels, and then mobilised Sordish forces along the northern border with Rumburg.

Egmund cancelled the treaty for no reason whatsoever

And even refused to discuss

[cerulean falcon]

Which page is that on?

[lean valve]

He clearly wanted war

[crystal schooner]

oh I got confused again, the blockade was actually seperate

In 1915, territorial sea disputes arose between the Kingdom of Sordland and the Empire of Valgos, who was a large colonial power at the time. The latter retaliated by embargoing Sordland’s ships. At this time, the Valgos fleet was the largest in the world. The embargo damaged the Kingdom of Sordland extensively, causing isolation and posing a massive threat to sea trade in an already precarious time.

[lean valve]

In 1915, territorial sea disputes arose between the Kingdom of Sordland and the Empire of Valgos, who was a large colonial power at the time. The latter retaliated by embargoing Sordland’s ships. At this time, the Valgos fleet was the largest in the world. The embargo damaged the Kingdom of Sordland extensively, causing isolation and posing a massive threat to sea trade in an already precarious time.

Yes

Lmfao

[crystal schooner]

and it was an embargo rather than a blockade, whatever that means exactly

but that's a second foreign policy failure

[cerulean falcon]

They won’t buy Sordish goods and won’t sell sordland anything

[crystal schooner]

it seems more than that cause their navy is mentioned

so they might have just....stopped Sordish ships from sailing to certain places

[cerulean falcon]

Merchant ships most likely

[lean valve]

Anyways I think if Sordland turned constitutional, I very much think it'd end up like French revolution

Egmund tries to flee

Gets caught

[crystal schooner]

another sign that the Rummish war was a failure

`In 1870, King Alfred II of Rumburg launched an invasion into Sordland after King Egmund’s cancellation of the Friendship Deal between the two countries. The war was short lived and did not result in a victory for neither side. It came to be known as the 15-Day War.

After the war, King Egmund seized all Renan assets into his personal treasury and ended expensive welfare programs that were established before his reign. This backfired, resulting in the largest protest in Sordish history to that day. The people rallied behind Artor S. Wisci, the leader of the Republican faction in the King’s Parliament, who was inspired by the parliamentary republics of Western Merkopa and the socialist revolutions in Contana. The pressure caused the King to revert some of the programs to avoid a full-blown rebellion.`

Egmund had to do a major cash grab after it

although, thinking about it, maybe that was the intent behind the war

create a war with Rumberg by provocation, fight them off, and then amdst the patriotic frenzy seize those assets for the crown

anyway by 1870 things were clearly starting to go wrong

an unnecessary failed war, unpopular decisions, massive domestic outrage

[cerulean falcon]

The cancellation of the treaty happened months earlier, it was the blocking of rumburgian ships into the Sordish section of a river access that sparked the war

[crystal schooner]

the section they had a right to under the prior treaty

[cerulean falcon]

Which for a few months seemed to have been kept into effect

[crystal schooner]

not really seeing the gotcha

Rumberg didn't take up arms while Sordland continued to act like the treaty was still in effect

wow, what warmongers

[cerulean falcon]

There was time for both to stand down, this was not something that happened on a dime

[crystal schooner]

seems like Rumberg stood down and waited for Sordland to block their ships

hardly the act of an aggressor

[cerulean falcon]

But going to war over wether your ships can go onto another nations river

[crystal schooner]

yes

countries regularly fight over waterways

Rumberg and Sordland had a treaty that specified Rumberg ships had access to Sordish waterways

Sordland broke it

[cerulean falcon]

A treaty sordland may not have seen anymore benefit in

[crystal schooner]

well, the thing about treaties is that they are between two parties

and if one party sees enough benefit in it to go to war...

[lean valve]

Then they could have just created a new one?

[cerulean falcon]

If they wanted to

[crystal schooner]

maybe not, Rumberg could easily have preferred the old treaty

[lean valve]

Egmund obviously wanted war

[crystal schooner]

also what is the benefit exactly to Sordland to cancel it?

forcing Rumberg to use Sordish river ships for transport?

that seems a dubious benefit for massive hostility from Rumberg

[cerulean falcon]

It cuts Rumburgian trade from the markian sea

Weakening them

[crystal schooner]

yes, so it's an inherently hostile act

[lean valve]

^

[cerulean falcon]

It is

[crystal schooner]

so it was an aggressive act

[cerulean falcon]

I still think rumburg didn’t have to declare war

[lean valve]

Egmund clearly wanted war

[lean valve]

Egmund was mobilising troops at the border

[crystal schooner]

also Rumberg had given him very clear warnings

there was no surprise in their actions

[cerulean falcon]

After the closure of the river and rumburg saying they would declare war

[crystal schooner]

they didn't declare war cause there was no need to

they had stated their CB very clearly already

also there was no Assembly of Nations at the time, no laws of war

[cerulean falcon]

We don’t know what the rules of war are in the universe

[crystal schooner]

rules of war are guidelines unless there are treaties establishing them

[cerulean falcon]

They may have a Geneva convention or not

[crystal schooner]

that's a treaty

[cerulean falcon]

Never specified

[cerulean falcon]

Seriously

[crystal schooner]

it is

The Geneva Conventions are four treaties, and three additional protocols

[cerulean falcon]

So when I say Geneva Conventions I refer to the treaties

[crystal schooner]

The Geneva Convention defines the rights and protections afforded to non-combatants. The treaties of 1949 were ratified, in their entirety or with reservations, by 196 countries.[

[crystal schooner]

the thing is though, those treaties don't apply to countries that don't ratify them, by definition

[cerulean falcon]

Where are you going here

[crystal schooner]

and worth pointing out that "with reservations" means some countries go "we will obey them except article X or whatever"

[cerulean falcon]

I honestly do not care

We do not if the AN has a Geneva conventions equivalent

[crystal schooner]

I don't believe it was illegal or improper for Rumberg to attack wtihout a formal declaration of war

at most it was ungentlemanly

[cerulean falcon]

Doesn’t stop nations in real life either

[crystal schooner]

oh that's different

nowdays lots of countries avoid declaring war so the laws of war don't apply

cause the laws of war are so strict

[cerulean falcon]

Right now we don’t know if there are any laws of war

[crystal schooner]

you were the one making a big deal about the lack of a formal declaration

[cerulean falcon]

So I shouldn’t take Japans late declarations of war in 1905 and 1941 as a [REDACTED] move

[crystal schooner]

those were surprise attacks though

Rumberg didn't launch a surprise attack

as you pointed out, the Sordish government had months of warning

[cerulean falcon]

I took “Preemptive” as a surprise attack

Same way Israel’s “preemptive” attacks on its neighbors are surprise attacks

In 1967 they did “Preemptive” strikes in Egyptian military and industrial sights

Launching the 6-day war

[next kayak]

Pretty sure the Egmund is baiting Rumburg to attack by closing the river, he knows and wants the Rums to attack so that he can win against them and earn some prestige (which backfired obvoously)

[lean valve]

Yep he did

[tacit inlet]

The free passage treaty was imposed by Rumberg during the Renan dinasty after a military defeat, so it was probably something that really angered the nationalists

[lean valve]

No mention of friendship treaty being from Renan

[tacit inlet]

friendship with sword under your throat

[crystal schooner]

as far as treaties following military defeats go, "our ships can use your internal waterways" is pretty lenient

[lean valve]

Civilian ships might I add

Egmund was clearly looking for a war

[tacit inlet]

If you impose it by force without paying anything, I won't give a damn if they are civilian or not. They go trough my territory, like a pipeline, you pay me a fair price instead of sending your army to subdue me

[crystal schooner]

we don't know if payment was or wasn't made

Rumberg pays for the natural gas after all, just slightly cheaper

also sovereignty where rivers are concerned can be rather complicated - for example, if Sudan were to Dam the Nile you can bet the Egyptian government would have something to say about that

if another country thinks access or water from a river is in their national interest, and they have enough economic or military power to act on their interests, then you have to deal with them

after all, the Sordish rivers Rumberg wanted to navigate started in or first went through Rumberg

if, theoretically, Rumberg were to completely dam up all of the rivers from its territory going into Sordland, denying Sordland water, you can bet the Sordish government might do something extreme - like bomb the dams

it would also be hard to consider the Sordish government an aggressor in that scenario, even though Rumberg was acting entirely within its sovereign territory

(interestingly enough, Rumberg has a water sharing agreement with Sordland concerning at least one river where they have a dam, and it apparently keeps to it)

(i.e. at some point the Rummish government actually promised a guaranteed amount of water from said river going into Sordland - it's doubtful Sordland pays for this as river water is considered a commons, though maybe they gave Rumberg some other consideration in exchange)

(also amusingly, the Rummish government never violates that treaty even while Beatrice is trying to start a war - maybe they think it would look too bad, or maybe they actually believe in keeping their treaties, or maybe breaking a treaty about river rights is just a big no no to them cause that's what Egmund did and they consider him a villain)

[cerulean falcon]

That would be disasterous for all are down stream as the sudden release of a large amount of pent up water would cause mass flooding along the banks.

[crystal schooner]

but bombing them has the advantage of resolving the problem immediately - Rumberg can then go to war over the bombing, but that won't rebuild the dams

also depending on where the dams are, the worst flooding might not be in Sordland

[compact plinth]

I feel that would have just given the Kingdom a few years more to live, but it was already on it's way out. The monarchy was extremely unpopular, with several prominent royalist jumping ship, going silent or openly siding with the republicans.

A main issue was that Egmund was loathed, and he didn't have an appropiate heir. I know his daughter existed, but pretty much nobody wanted her to take the throne. So with no succesion in sight... the monarchy would have ended anyways, but perharps when Egmund died, not before as it actuallt happened

[desert tide]

Does make you wonder what happened to Jule. She should be approximately the same age as Deivid

[quick sundial]

it is said that jule was really young in 1923

certainly below 18

[desert tide]

Really? I suppose that makes me wonder how old Arthur was at the time of his Presidency then

[quick sundial]

its artor

pretty sure artor was in his early to mid 50s

[compact plinth]

Way older