#Dice aren’t random…

76 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

hollow olive
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Strat means nothing

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If dice don't roll your way

stray owl
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  1. There is nothing statistically mind-blowing here. One match (or 20) isn't even statistically significant.
  2. If your "strat means nothing if the dice don't roll your way," your strat sucks.
hollow olive
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I mean, obviously strategy is important. But there's only so many outcomes of the dice and you can NEVER know what numbers are rolling that game

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I've had games with 100+ rolls get 20+ 7s

stray owl
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You really should read the forwarded post you just ignored.

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How many 7s did you think there should be in 100 rolls?

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If you have an answer, you don't understand probability at all.

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You people make my brain hurt. You honestly think RANDOM numbers should be PREDICTABLE. What the Actual ****

lilac crag
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You must be new here

lilac crag
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100% random

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small hound
# stray owl

I’m aware of the RNG nature of the game, but here’s the contradiction:
The devs officially announced the 'Balanced Dice Mode' to prevent exactly what happened in my game (unusual streaks).
If the game was in Balanced Mode: Having an 8 roll 9 times out of 27 (33% frequency) is a total failure of the algorithm. It's literally the opposite of 'balanced' or 'bell-shaped distribution'.
If the game was still using Independent Random: The devs themselves admitted in their update post that this system felt 'not quite right' and caused 'unusual streaks' that ruin the experience.
So, telling me 'it's just random' ignores the fact that even the developers realized the dice were broken enough to require a complete overhaul of the default settings. You can't defend a system that the creators are literally trying to fix because it feels wrong.

small hound
stray owl
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If all that is true then I'm prepared to be schooled. Could you provide the source of your quotes where they said the dice were ruining the game? And I think what you're calling "balanced dice mode" is the card stack option isn't it? Don't you have to manually choose that?

I'll keep an open mind here for your reply but is it possible you've "shaded" their words maybe just a touch?

What do you personally feel is the solution?

obsidian isle
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The “Balanced mode” the devs talked about is thankfully yet to be implemented, hopefully they never get to it cause who needs two card stack options. They really should focus on the rejoin loop issue cause that’s an actual issue and what the hell, truly.

frail smelt
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Welcome to Catan Universe. Could share dozens of screens like this. My theory is the higher your rank compared to the others in the room, the better your "luck". My favorite game was when a high lvl grandmaster placed himself only on 3 tiles (4,10,11) while I was on 5,6,8,9 and the first 25 rolls were 90% of his numbers before any 6/8 even rolled. I tried this the other way round when I played against lower levels and won some games in the same ridiculous way 😅
You can have the best strat, best placement etc but when dice rolls like this, you just have no chance.

near lagoon
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There's nothing that screams skill issue more than someone saying "it feels like the algorithm is favoring higher Elo players"

frail smelt
small hound
cursive dragon
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Chat, we've had this conversation many, many times. The CU RNG has been tested against any a generic one many times, and they follow the same standard deviation.

stray owl
high mauve
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I feel like the dice has only gotten worse after the update. 🙁

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radiant talon
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@high mauve you may want to check the version number you're playing with.

For the who knows how manyth time, there's nothing odd in that stat. Those happen even in live games. They're rare, but they DO happen.

mortal crow
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The dice update hasn’t happened yet

radiant talon
high mauve
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Sorry, I was just frustrated at the time. ^^! The version is up to date and will be updated via Steam.

surreal barn
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''Unfortunately, this would make the game boring, predictable, therefore not engaging at all.''
So, seeing from the start that a certain number is about to be favored all game is not boring? At this point this game is just a gamble, everything is set to happen from the start, if you haven't picked the chosen number, good luck because its about to get rolled 4-5 times in a row and you're just gonna have to sit and stare how your opponents get cards over and over. I've played this game on and off for 3 years and I swear this latest update has been the worst.

stray owl
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Why do you believe that

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You think the game picks a "magic number" at the beginning of each match?

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Which update are you talking about?

surreal barn
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I don't follow the development but I did notice a change in the behaviour of the dice rolls. I know they've always been a known issue in the community but I think they used to be a bit more consistent overall. What I mean by consistent, it shouldn't be a recipe for disaster if i placed a settlement on number 10 which landed just once all game, as opposed to someone else that kept having 5's and 9's rolled over and over again.

surreal barn
radiant talon
# stray owl You think the game picks a "magic number" at the beginning of each match?

The high recurrence of a number, especially in rows, (which is the actual problem) creates a situation where people can guess the highest rolled number right at the beginning. What they fail to realise is that it's still a guess, they start to claim that they somehow can make an accurate prediction. Sadly, this derives them from the real problem and they start to talk nonsense, which then both reduces the weight of their complaint and clutters it with nonsense.

radiant talon
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I have sometimes correctly GUESSed the highest rolled number during the 10 first rolls in CU. But I wouldn't try to claim that the dice is so predictable that it could be correcly guessed every time, or even most of the time when a repeating pattern emerges, as that would be just plain bullcrap. It happens enough to create a bias, though, as we have seen.

In a neighbour thread about opposite of this subject (hilarious, isn't it), a person did show a screenshot where #6 was clearly most thrown at the ⅓-½ way of the game (I didn't calculate the actual amount of throws so that's a guess), but in the end (the second screenshot), there was only one more #6 and was it #9 that had gone well above it. These happen plenty as well, clearly being a part of breaking "the favorite number" pattern.

radiant talon
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It is frustrating as hell to notice from early on that a certain number gets a lot of hits, because it can be predicted that IF same keeps going on, I'm either going to utterly lose the game or utterly win it (especially in solo). This kills the mood effectively. This has nothing to do with CU, same applies to live games. The very f*ing same. One of the biggest differences to live games is, that CU produces noticeably more rows of a same number, which causes a lot of imbalance, especially when they hit a certain number during a game. In non-solo games this can be tried to counter with robber. I've seen live games where ie. #8 was the most thrown number, but the player who got 2 cities in one of them did not win, because others made sure that the robber sat there most of the game. Probably been in that spot myself.

stray owl
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Where did all the other open minded smart people go

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I wish I could remember statistics enough to argue with that autocorrelation guy

mortal crow
stray owl
mortal crow
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What am I assuming?

stray owl
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How many games of live and online are in your sample?

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Why does repitition decide a winner regardless of skill?

mortal crow
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Large enough, sorry I don't count every game I play

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Based on all your posts, pretty sure you just like stirring the pot on this discord

stray owl
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Or the threads I stir the pot in are all about the same nonsense and it's so ridiculous I can't help stirring

mortal crow
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Do you even play this game? Or just like to troll the posts

stray owl
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I do play this game. I am not trolling. The broken dice threads really are that dumb.

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I tried taking them seriously at first.

mortal crow
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Where's your data that shows otherwise?

stray owl
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That shows otherwise what

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my data that proves a negative?

mortal crow
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That shows live rolls are not statistically different than CU rolls

stray owl
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When did you stop beating your wife?

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Or have you stopped

mortal crow
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Good one. Just proven you're just another internet troll with no argument or brain

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Bye

stray owl
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So you are saying you can't prove that you don't

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Shouldn't the burden be on the one to prove their claim that you do?

radiant talon
# mortal crow Agree with what you’re saying. Except you’re contradicting yourself saying the ...

I'm not saying that the repetitiveness appears in live games just as like it does in CU, as you should be able to conclude from this "contradiction". I'm saying that same number may be rolled clearly more than the others in live as well, that's not in any way unique to CU, unlike some people try to claim with their "look at this 27x#7, this shouldn't exist!" comments and posts. (If you get a screenshot of your "once in a life >20x#", good for you!) As I wrote, the repetition in rows happens more in CU than with dice. If you still fail to understand what I mean, then it's not about how I write.

radiant talon
radiant talon
# stray owl I tried taking them seriously at first.

Seriously though, going full troll-mode doesn't help. Constantly being a mouthy a*hole with very little productive to add, if any, is a form of trolling. Putting people on their defensive is not a good way to get your point through. You have had a high tendency to do that since you gave up with the more "formal", explaining and polite attitude. I do know where that come from, because you can only guess how many times I've erased my snarky comments before posting them. It's exhausting to deal with stupidity, especially if you want to do it properly. It's way too easy to just mouth off. To be honest, I feel little guilt, as I did say something containing "good luck with that" after you tried to make sense with one of the "broken dicers", because it wasn't long after that your general expression made a nosedive into mud. Not saying that I caused it, but I assume that my comment had effect. And I'm sorry for that.

stray owl
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To say that about someone's behavior on the internet of all places, it must be serious! I'll try to keep that in mind.

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How patient would you be with Flat Earthers? That's how this crap feels to me. I wouldn't be like this if people had reasonable things to debate and I don't automatically start like this in general...

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Also I have Asperger's (mild autism) and I don't always realize how I come across. Yes I knew I was a mouthy smartass and that's ok with me, but thanks for pointing out the a*hole level, which I did not realize. ✊

stray owl
radiant talon
stray owl
bitter mango
stray owl
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fairly bell ish

radiant talon
# stray owl Also I have Asperger's (mild autism) and I don't always realize how I come acros...

Been there myself. ✌️ Could get diagnosis if I saw enough reason to wrestle for it, ADD has been enough so far.
A good thumb-rule that I try to follow is to avoid looking for a fight, and to try to stop one if it starts. Easier to say than do, I know that very well. Especially stopping a fight. My output hasn't been very productive every time here either. Another thumbie is, that if you can't resist mouthing off, try to make it smart. Make it smart enough, and the other can't be mad at you. Kind of like you get a free ride to call the other idiot as he'll just laugh instead of getting pissed. (That's an art only a few master.) While the effort itself may make it so that you don't even bother with mouthing off, or during writing decide not to, so the negative load isn't added to the conversation. (Especially with weaker impulse control this is a savior.)
Those apply both RL and internet equally.
But yeah, facing blatant idiocy makes holding composure difficult.

radiant talon
# bitter mango

That's pretty random right there. Quite high 2 and 12 combined, but these happen.