#The Great Guild Forecast - Help Us Solve Guild Shops!

1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

gloomy agate
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Ever wanted to know what guilds have what materials on what days? The Guild Forecast will be able to tell you! Know immediately when materials are available next in your guild of choice so you can prepare and farm as comfortably as possible!*

We're using the amazing power of "prior knowledge" in order to do this. Most guild shops will have the exact same stock for all players in the same tier on the same day. This, however, extends to the same day of each year! (January 8 2024 will have the same stock as January 8 2025!) This is even true across games, so Orna's stocks will match Aethric's.

However, using "prior knowledge" comes at a cost - the "prior" part. We need to know what the stocks were for some day in a previous year in order to document it for this year. The basic gist is, if nobody has saved what the stock is for that day, we will not have that data and cannot "predict" the future. Thankfully, people have been doing this for a while now! A few servers, have, at some point, taken screenshots of their guild stocks to share with friends or kingdommates. If you happen to know of a server that has done this, please let me know! The more data points, the better. A good way to tell if I don't know of the server yet is if I'm not in it. If you use Discord's built in Mutual Servers tab on profiles, and see that I'm not in a server that you're in, chances are I've not heard of it.

We are working on this over at Cade Labs ( https://discord.gg/sWRnYwUNpA ) to make this as complete as possible! People volunteering either to give data or to help enter the data into our spreadsheet are both welcome! Lots of effort needs to be made in order for this to be a complete tool, so please help if you can!

Spreadsheet in question: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWTEeQnFlNePLTOLCbrzyMWljJjR01L84z2tpeaOAi8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

*Since all this is gathered and input by humans, mistakes can and probably will be made regarding material accuracy. Please don't take this sheet as gospel, though it will be highly accurate anyway. If something is inaccurate, do let me know!

Thank you in advance to everyone who helps, or has helped, and please share this with people who might like to use it! (And please, of course, give credit where it is due!)

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Feel free to ask any questions about this here as well!

coarse bolt
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Wonder how last year being a leap year will effect it. Could just be an extra day or might throw the whole thing out of sync starting Feb 29th (March 1st)

gloomy agate
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Thankfully we've got matches for the beginning (Jan 2024 - Jan 2025) and end (Dec 2023 - Dec 2024) on the exact day iirc, so I believe it just uses the day as ths seed

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...or so I'm led to believe, could blow up in our faces next time

gritty spade
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so there's an actual rotation? 😮

gloomy shale
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This pretty interesting

gloomy agate
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Hey guys! An update on this, we've now basically mapped just about every day for every guild! We're only missing 24 stocks out of 2920, so less than one percent - and they're all on the less important guilds (Deepshards, Remembrance, Sparring, Trials)

Here's a couple of things we can do with our data now:

To start, we're able to very simply display today's and tomorrow's stocks. This one's easy to do, but still quite useful!

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Second, and more importantly, we're able to forecast when a material will next show up in a respective guild shop! Here's some of the ones right now.

chrome marten
gloomy agate
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I could probably mansplain that it's like that because the event items also are individualized

chrome marten
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That's new information to me, sorry to disturb you

gloomy agate
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John we're friends I don't care if you disturb me mimic

chrome marten
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You will regret that sentence

gloomy agate
gritty juniper
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@gloomy agate Sorry to ping you, but where i can contribute if there are errors?

spring yoke
gritty juniper
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Yeah travellers guild

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Some of the entries didnt match

gloomy agate