Starship Flight 7 | Starlink Mission

[twin cedar]

I was called

[steep wedge]

Tysm!

I'll be beach hunting tomorrow probably then

[novel fulcrum]

Indeed

[novel fulcrum]

Awesome!

I’ll probably go to the beaches around cocoa beach then up to playalinda

[twin cedar]

I still hate the title channel 9 made it but Tom Terry is a cool dude and is usally very accurate with informration so I trust him

[novel fulcrum]

SpaceX Rocket Disaster!

[twin cedar]

also to be fair tom didnt name it he just works there

[desert ruin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6hIXB62bUE&t=29s

[flat mortar]

I was waiting for this

[steep wedge]

I'll be on Daytona heading south

What point in the tide cycle is the best for stuff washing ashore?

[flat mortar]

Haven't seen this one

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE7APe4xGeS/?igsh=NWNmYTZ3ZGQ1Zmdt

epic.spaceflight

Airline passengers had quite a view of Starship 33 raining down after an inflight RUD. Debris re-entered over a predefined hazard area and the FAA also issued a TFR (Temporary Flight Restriction) for falling space debris. SpaceX has identified a methane and oxygen leak in a cavity behind the engine firewall as the likely preliminary culprit. ...

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[storm spindle]

Just after high tide is when you'll find the most things

[finite raven]

Need better lighting

[devout linden]

It's not great, but there is enough to put together

[scarlet lintel]

such a low quality pic. save time and ask for a better picture before analyzing this

if they can't produce another pic then it's a fraud. so simple

[dusky hedge]

Hoyl shit are you still on about this

[devout linden]

it is really obvious

[obtuse bough]

confirmation bias?

[crude torrent]

thats the question

[crude torrent]

ill be fully honest, in that pic it looks like they ripped up part of the car, bent it out of shape a bit and put it on top

[obtuse bough]

transformers

[devout linden]

didn't know they made cars out of bonded tube assemblies

[crude torrent]

where are the bonded tubes

i see a sheet with square holes

[flat palm]

ill be honest i dont see it not being RVac

[devout linden]

the whole thing is a sheet of tubes

it is very split up along some of the joints

[crude torrent]

if you showed a higher quality picture it wouldve been more obvious

[devout linden]

the others were obvious to me

[crude torrent]

evven so im not convinced - for one thing, how tf did it fold like it did, it folded in half

[devout linden]

tube nozzles are traditionally very thin

[crude torrent]

like 180 degree fold

[devout linden]

this thing got yeeted into the atmosphere

[crude torrent]

that just doesnt happen

[crude torrent]

yea, which quite famously doesnt like folds like that

[devout linden]

what?

[crude torrent]

1. how does the fold form

2. while the fold is forming, its got a bunch of air on the inside of the fold's walls stopping the fold

[devout linden]

the thin wibbly thing got exploded and slammed into the air and the question is how did it bend?

[crude torrent]

how did it bend in half

180 degrees

3rd, are we even certain that the rVac is stainless steel? last i saw it was a kind of zinc composite, which wouldnt make that noise on that car

[devout linden]

I have no idea what the tubes are. And what do you mean by zinc composite?

[crude torrent]

4th: its completely the wrong colour
5th: we see the hole it punched through, but nothing else? shouldnt there be another dent where it falls over? bc it very clearly didnt go far enough to stick (we see them holding it in place the entire video

[crude torrent]

an alloy made of zinc and other metals

but notably not stainless stell

[devout linden]

why would you make a nozzle out of zinc?

and it's silver ish at night. how is that the wrong color?

[crude torrent]

but also, back to the how

the ship broke apart above south caicos

things dont just fall straight donw

[devout linden]

the ballistic coefficient is probably pretty low on the nozzle

[crude torrent]

the only thing i can think of is if the engines blew up first, and shot the nozzle "backwards" even earlier before the FTS triggered

[devout linden]

thin lightweight thing will slow down pretty fast

[main root]

It did not break apart above south Caicos

It was already broken apart well before then

And yes lighter weight objects with relatively high surface area will decelerate much faster

So an object like pictures above would absolutely be able to fall onto the islands

in the videos you can visibly see smaller chunks slowing down much faster to the point where they are no longer glowing which means they’ve likely slowed down past hypersonic maybe even past supersonic

so basically anywhere under the path after the explosion (aside from immediately under) can be rained with debris

Well actually

immediately under is possible depending on the velocity of the debris that was ejected retrograde

[crude torrent]

well yeah, if that velocity is 21000km/h or 5900m/s

[main root]

Probably not in reality but still the break up didn’t occur over the islands

It was already broken up at that point

[flat mortar]

Moment

[main root]

And debris was already losing energy so yeah it’s completely possible for debris to land

[magic heart]

you know what would also be good for that is if they streamed their fucking launches

[steep wedge]

@novel fulcrum Any chance of debris tonight at high tide? Or starting tomorrow morning

[novel fulcrum]

You’d have to ask @twin cedar, he’s the weather nerd lol

[leaden socket]

I would expect the extension to be very strong in tension. That's the kind of stress it experiences the most of. However, it's rather thin so it probably would be vulnerable to buckling under compression like it would experience hitting a car.

[devout linden]

or if it is tumbling while attached to the TCA and hits the air side on at mach jesus

[leaden socket]

TCA?

[twin cedar]

i know weather not how waves work 😭

I know where currents flow not how fast they move objects

[scarlet lintel]

it's still really dark. and you can't see the end of it and the start of it. and what's that background? why isn't it placed on a white table with a spotlight shone on it? sheesh.

and no banana for scale

[woeful talon]

I have better night pictures of the pipe I found after eye eff tea six

[scarlet lintel]

lol

[patent lantern]

https://fixupx.com/thenewarea51/status/1880388486022214141?t=XqU3NVVqRIK1MoULnsNK9Q&s=19

[foggy tree]

im not convinced that video is of a piece of starship

[hot roost]

https://x.com/joroulette/status/1880361667122561413

Joey Roulette (@joroulette) on X

There is a "multi-agency investigation that is ongoing" in the Turks and Caicos Islands after reports that fallen Starship debris caused property damage, the territory's police commissioner said.
https://t.co/4vWV3xniyX

X · Jan 17, 2025, 9:08 PM

there is an investigation and they'll see if it is one

[jaunty canopy]

I’m with him it matches

[foggy tree]

yea it matches

but there are probably hundreds of other things that that could be, and there could be alterior motives for people wanting to fake this stuff

[jaunty canopy]

Here’s a cross section of a tube wall nozzle going the other way - these tubes are bigger but hopefully they can illustrate to you that the things won’t be very strong when they aren’t in a complete circle

those patterns in the bottom out of focus are it getting crunched

[obtuse bough]

https://youtu.be/w6hIXB62bUE

[scarlet lintel]

don't worry they will unite to destroy an entire moon

[leaden socket]

https://tenor.com/view/umbrella-academy-vanya-destroying-the-moon-laser-beam-moon-destroyed-gif-26550290

[obtuse bough]

i wish jeff bezos would destroy my bottom half

[buoyant sequoia]

jreg jumpscare jesus

[sullen ermine]

@violet comet ayo?

[violet comet]

Yep still there

No idea where the information that it got removed is from

[hot roost]

One mention got removed, other still there

also wording between the two was different

Fell (with certainty) vs would have fallen

[sullen ermine]

SpX trying to not admit they did fuck up challenge (impossible)

[sullen ermine]

https://fixupx.com/GraceBayFan/status/1880422767319044252

[leaden socket]

Maybe some of the felt stuff from behind the tiles?

A bit crispy

[sullen ermine]

TSE in a quote said it's an ablative layer under the tiles

[leaden socket]

Sounds about right

[crude torrent]

so.. uh. thats not good

[sullen ermine]

lmfao an admin of rus SpX-fangroup is denying debris falling out of closed areas

[crude torrent]

i dont want to make the obvious "russians are used to denying the obvious and clear" joke

[sullen ermine]

nah I saw Eng-speaking ppl denying a failure too

it's just depends on how deep you dive into the shit

(I also saw some claiming it's a total failure, everyone is even)

[crude torrent]

see, this is why i track booster and ship flights seperately

booster: fully successful, even demonstrated engine-out and relight capability

ship: fully failure

whereas with Glenn it was
Booster: half success

Upper Stage: full success

but calling BONG a 75% success feels like its underselling it

and calling IFT 7 a 50% success feels like its overselling

[wise orchid]

the way I think about is is objectives accomplished. Blue accomplished all of their main objectives, starship accomplished very few at all

[finite raven]

huuuuh

how many test flights in total ?

BO one test flight and ya gonna talk like that? lmfaoooooooo

literally BO fans

[sullen ermine]

I mean in the modern world spaceflight supposed to mean a delivery of payload to its intended orbit (or an upper stage if it's a payload simulator). NG-1 is a successful mission and Flight 7 is a failure. Landing of a booster is a side objective that doesn't affect the payload delivery

[finite raven]

https://tenor.com/view/ok-all-nice-gif-22927671

I can repeat this again

ONE test flight vs how many test flights from Starship with series of missions that got accomlished?

But go off? lol

[crude torrent]

and in one test flight BO did what starship hasnt in 7

[novel fulcrum]

I see wayyyyy too many people calling Flight 7 a success just because of the booster catch. The ship was the main objective, and it failed, therefore the flight is a failure. Booster recovery is always a secondary thing in any mission.

[jade zinc]

Sir these are test flights. No payloads were going to be put in orbit anyways, so by your definition, Flight 7 was doomed from the start

[crude torrent]

im all for starship, but thats not the point you think it is

[finite raven]

one test, gurantee everything for ya?

[sullen ermine]

(or an upper stage if it's a payload simulator)

[finite raven]

idgaf about starship tbh

[novel fulcrum]

I can’t tell if you’re for BO or against

[crude torrent]

took one successful ship hop for them to go to integration

[sullen ermine]

test flight doesn't mean you can fuck up someone's payload (H3 TF1 with ALOS-3 for example) and call it a success

[finite raven]

but to claim BO is best and accomplished the most when it too them forever to do ONE FIRST test flight, while Starship been working on series of things

just hilarious

[crude torrent]

its a different style of testing

[wise orchid]

it's completely different development styles though

[novel fulcrum]

Didn’t say BO was best and most accomplished

[crude torrent]

SpaceX is dozens of test flights, slowly improving

[finite raven]

sounded like yall were directing it that road

[crude torrent]

BO is take time and try to make sure things work first time

[wise orchid]

both rockets are great for different things

[finite raven]

compared to spacex, seeing what can/will work and what wont

lmfao

[sullen ermine]

[jade zinc]

Both strategies are viable if both rockets are able to complete their mission once they are operational

[crude torrent]

IFT5 was more successful than BO1

[novel fulcrum]

New Glenn is meant to be a more finished and refined product from the start. While its IPO is less than what the final will be, it’s far more polished than Starship is already, which is why they went to orbit with it and made it. They’re not doing rapid iterative design

[crude torrent]

IFT6 and 7 were less

(6 id actually say the same amount of success)

[finite raven]

like i said, starship is about seeing what can be applied, and what can not

when ppl doubted the ability to catch a dang booster

landing a rocket on its legs

he proved it

[crude torrent]

yes, and rapid iterative development is good for firsts like that

[finite raven]

BO does what?

one test lmfaoooooooooooo

[crude torrent]

BO has no reason to go through that because they have a wealth of knowledge from watching spacex do it hundreds of times with F9

watch, take notes, learn

then fly

[finite raven]

and thats why BO wont be the best

a follower

a chaser

cant innovate for themselves

so sad

[sullen ermine]

[jade zinc]

BO is innovative in their own right in other ways? Lmfao

[finite raven]

copies from other people homework

excels in it sure

[crude torrent]

just because they arent doing some new landing hardware (what is there even left to try? landing the ship on a big balloon?)

[finite raven]

ust like china

[jade zinc]

If you’re not going to argue in good faith then bye

[crude torrent]

theres only a certain number of ways to reuse a booster

they picked one that had the most amount of data behind it

[finite raven]

yall trying to defend bo copying homework is funny

anyways

[crude torrent]

how would you suggest they reuse a booster that isnt copying

[finite raven]

nah ya m issed my point kinda

[gloomy stream]

Everyone should have started copying SpaceX sooner in my opinion haha

[finite raven]

im just saying, theyre a chaser, a follower

[sullen ermine]

I mean flying a rocket from a launch pad to orbit doesn't count as copying?

[finite raven]

sits watch starship do innovative stuff, copies it for themselves

[crude torrent]

actually this was F9

[finite raven]

i mean this is coming rom ya

[crude torrent]

and they upscaled it

they needed a reusable booster

how to do it? try to come up with a novel, risky, untested way or just use whats there

theres a reason we dont see many people trying spaceguns

bc rockets were decided as teh best option

[finite raven]

i mean nobody else were doing anything

spacex does a thing

others : OOOOOH imma copy

lol

[crude torrent]

spacex does things first and proves it works

[finite raven]

in that sense, theyre a chaser

[sullen ermine]

because it works? There's no need to re-invent a bicycle when the very well proven design does exist already

[crude torrent]

how else are they supposed to do it

[finite raven]

im just saying

be the first to invent something that works

[crude torrent]

"i want to launch something to space, but i dont want to be a chaser of most companies, so ill make a giant slingshot that throws the rocket into orbit"

[finite raven]

rather than being snide about copying and being the most accomplished by only 1 test flight lol

[sullen ermine]

so why SpX didn't invent square-shaped rockets? why did they copy cylindrical shape?

[finite raven]

https://tenor.com/view/thegoon-bigoldgoon-ted-lasso-yes-yes-yes-yes-gif-701975896996955852

[crude torrent]

Starship and NG are barely comparable

NG and F9 is the better comparison

[finite raven]

seems my point isnt really getting across

oh well

[crude torrent]

because your point is "why dont companies try absurd methods that have no likelihood of working and waste lots of money when there is a proven, cost effective solution already found"

[finite raven]

thats what you thought my point was, but no

[crude torrent]

what is it then

thats what youve been arguing

[sullen ermine]

basically

[crude torrent]

fr

[finite raven]

im not a BO hater

hilarious

[jade zinc]

Everyone just copied the homework of apollo smh nobody deserves any credit

[finite raven]

im no fluffer either

so,.. yeah

[finite raven]

dang them to heck

it isnt about me taking sides on BO or starshi

[main root]

@finite raven the difference with New Glenn is that it has created an operational product already

The next flight is carrying a NASA payload

[finite raven]

thats fair

[main root]

Also very commonly only one “test flight” is ever needed

[sullen ermine]

ESCAPADE is NG-3 afaik
NG-2 is HLS pathfinder

[main root]

ESCAPADA was spring I thought

[finite raven]

im gonna laugh hard if the next flight,....

yea im not gonna jinx that

[main root]

The fact that Starship needs 7+ is very unique to Starship

Majority of modern rockets have one successful test flight than move into operations right away

[finite raven]

starship isnt about payload delivery in the first place right

[main root]

SLS, Falcon 9, Vulcan, Atlas

[main root]

No

[finite raven]

and theyre testing various thing

[main root]

It is about payload delivery

It’s always been about payload

[finite raven]

see what works, what doesnt, doing different things

uhh

starship is abou tmars no?

lmao

[main root]

In the grand operational sense sure

But right now it’s nowhere near ready for even LEO

[finite raven]

right

payload to moon as a means to pay itself towars mars missions

[main root]

Also what made NG-1 more impressive imo is it had a pretty ambitious flight profile

[main root]

And well rn it has 0 payload to the Moon

[finite raven]

to MEO?

[crude torrent]

uhm no, payload to LEO, larstink

[finite raven]

im speaking of hls

gosh

[crude torrent]

itsanotherstarlink.mp3

[main root]

For a first flight yeah

[finite raven]

got it

[main root]

As for Starship it has abysmal payload to any orbit rn for its size

At least with the given performance data

[finite raven]

starship and BO is hardly a good comparsion

[main root]

The comparison for me is moreso the development methodology

[crude torrent]

plan is for that to be offset by cost tho, brought down by reusability

[finite raven]

to call one a sucess and other a failure is funny

[main root]

Flight 7 is a failure

Outright

[crude torrent]

are you saying flight 7 wasnt a ship failure

[finite raven]

sure thats fine, still some tests were a success in that test

[sullen ermine]

that's literally what @crude torrent said earlier

[crude torrent]

id say booster was success, but ship was definitely failure

[main root]

It failed to meet the major mission objection which was the demonstration of the V2 Starship

Which should’ve been a mature vehicle

Like

[crude torrent]

yea, no suborbital larstinks

[main root]

7 flights into a dev program and you repeat a failure you had on the 2nd flight isn’t innovation lmao

[sullen ermine]

the only thing they tested with V2 is well, it can ignite the engines and communicate with the MCC

[main root]

a lot of the Starship dev program is simply trying to reinvent portions of rocketry that don’t need to be reinvented at all

Like the whole stupid thing with the flame plate

[finite raven]

hmm

[main root]

Touted as a masterpiece of engineering just for SpaceX to revert to the old space flame trench with the new pad

[crude torrent]

not the same failure tbf, was a fire above firewall, not setting the propellent dump on fire causing it to go up into the tanks

[crude torrent]

iirc the issue was time

[main root]

My bad with the wording, I mean having an upper stage failure this late into the dev program

[main root]

Even then, the fact that people argued that the plate was better than a flame trench was always dumb

[crude torrent]

i mean better for the issue to show itself now, rather than on a manned mission

[finite raven]

yeah ill agree with that

and yet at the same time everybody doubted reusability and the company has proved it

[main root]

IMO there are ways things could’ve been avoided with ample margin and QC but I don’t really know how intensive Starship ground testing is

[finite raven]

the only one doing that

[main root]

barely any engineers actually doubted reusability could work

There were two companies before SpaceX pursuing reusability

[crude torrent]

||Blue Origin||

[sullen ermine]

the landing of NG-1 doesn't affect the payload delivery at all. That's why it's a success
The ship was supposed to got to TAO but it didn't reach the intended trajectory, so it's a failure
We don't call Starlink 9-3 mission a success because of successfully landed booster after all

[finite raven]

i see

[main root]

one failed and one still flies

Yeah booster outcome means jackshit for mission outcome

[finite raven]

dont be silly

spacex were doing this before BO decided to join the chat lbr

[main root]

Blue Origin technically were the first to pursue reuse SpaceX just got there faster with Falcon 9

They had hoppers in the mid 2000s

[finite raven]

same as spacex star hopper time yeah?

[main root]

No

[finite raven]

whats the timeline on those anyways

[main root]

SpaceX hopper was not until the 2010s

[finite raven]

ooh

[main root]

https://youtu.be/ygYPPh8NLrM

[finite raven]

never seen/heard of this

i see

[broken linden]

And this was in 2011 (Blue)

[main root]

Yeah

[crude torrent]

where was the exhaust from that???

[sullen ermine]

||SpX copied Crew Dragon shape from Goddard ||

[main root]

Hydrogen peroxide thrusters

[crude torrent]

looks like it just was lifted up

[main root]

Exhaust is pretty much tranparent

[crude torrent]

really weird looking

[finite raven]

huh hmm

[main root]

I swear there was a BO test vehicle that was a jet engine

[sullen ermine]

yeah I rember it too

I think Scott Manley covered it in his deep dive into NS/NG history video

[main root]

So no BO is not a “chaser”

They just follow their own time tables lmao

[broken linden]

Charon

[main root]

There it is yeah

[finite raven]

ill concede, ya proved me wrong

[sullen ermine]

[finite raven]

im also on my 2nd cup of whiskey

[main root]

Imo

If Blue decided to pursue a vehicle similar in size to F9

[finite raven]

i never heard/knew about those earlier stuff

[main root]

It probably wouldn’t have flown this late I could see it flying by 2015

[main root]

It’s all apart of Blue Origins step by step methodology

Though uh

New Shepard to New Glenn is probably the biggest “step” any organization has ever undertaken

[sullen ermine]

yeah Manley mentioned some proposals on orbital LV based on New Shepard architecture, so it could be smth like that

[main root]

Yeah the original New Shepard design was supposed to be more easily converted to an orbital vehicle iirc

[finite raven]

i see

[main root]

Honestly I always hate to see BO’s history reduced

[sullen ermine]

ye

[broken linden]

ew

[main root]

It has always been a trailblazer in reusable technologies they just took the imo better development approach

Because it enabled them to go from a really tiny vehicle with New Shepard

To a behemoth of New Glenn rather successfully

[finite raven]

oh ok

[main root]

like if SpaceX tried to go from F1 to something like Starship they would’ve probably died lmfao

[sullen ermine]

ye, and they didn't rush screaming "THE END IS NEAR" like someone else

[main root]

Lowkey that also explains the difference

BO’s end goal can be measured in centuries

SpaceX’s end goal is measured in the next 30 years

[sullen ermine]

https://fixupx.com/mcrs987/status/1880527467641032742
https://x.com/mcrs987/status/1880527470333698253

TheSpaceEngineer (@mcrs987) on X

Vehicle orientation is estimated based off of as much available data as possible. From LOS to several seconds before breakup there is virtually no available data to work with. However, the videos before the breakup allows for some important details to be made, such as the

X · Jan 18, 2025, 8:07 AM

[astral rapids]

yes

[obtuse bough]

is he saying he has insider sources

for the severities of the engine shutdowns

[sudden lark]

No?

[obtuse bough]

oh is there a public source for that

[flat palm]

peoples eyes

[scarlet lintel]

without any payloads, the booster is probably more expensive than the upper stage though. it has more rocket engines.

[scarlet lintel]

yeah probably couldn't be done without Amazon money. oh and they have Vulcan customers for the BE-4 so it isn't like totally unproven

[astral rapids]

https://fxtwitter.com/thejackbeyer/status/1880602457577029652?t=z5g5pyZ1FAIEtMFv4BrmoA&s=33

[sage prairie]

woah didn't notice the top of the booster was a bit browned

so we'll have rainbow starships and brown boosters

[flat mortar]

Maybe from hot stage

[astral rapids]

most likely from hot stage

[flat mortar]

I wish we ever got to see the flip separation method

[astral rapids]

id go as far as to say definitely from hot staging

[flat mortar]

https://youtu.be/0zC0K0YZEzg

[scarlet lintel]

https://bsky.app/profile/djsnm.extwitter.link/post/3lfwkz5motx2h

Scott Manley (@djsnm.extwitter.link)

Given how photogenic the starship debris trail was, I think we should get @NASA to insist that the ISS deorbit happen in twilight, if we're spending a billion dollars to do this we need to make it look as good as possible.

Bluesky · Jan 17, 2025, 6:04 AM

[sudden lark]

people need to stop using bluesky i keep missing all there tweets

[scarlet lintel]

oh this is just a doppelganger Scott Manley

the real post is on Xitter

nowadays the only thing I post on X are news about people moving away from X 🤣

[rough marsh]

That's a mirror of his twitter account. He posted the exact same thing on twitter

[sudden lark]

Ah I see, like Michael sheetz now miss all them

[unborn tapir]

wait

there's a russian working at SpaceX

?

[obtuse bough]

yeah and a south african

[unborn tapir]

dude

like how

Are them in the US since they were kids or what?

[flat palm]

You need to be a US citizen with a green card

dont have to be born there

[unborn tapir]

huhh

hmm

is there like an especific amount of time that u have to be living in the us ?

like 5 yrs

and the green card

or just the green card ?

[astral rapids]

i think citizen is 5 years but idk

[unborn tapir]

thanks !

[worthy musk]

Is there a way to not manually mirror them; I really wanna post my things to Bluesky too but I just ain't got no time to handle another social media platform right now

[scarlet lintel]

https://bsky.app/profile/twttr-mirrors.bsky.social

maybe ask this guy how to do it

Twitter Mirrors 🐦🪞🦋 (@twttr-mirrors.bsky.social)

I handle some mirror accounts to what used to be the old Twitter we once loved.

Bluesky

there's also a Tim Dodd doppelganger by this service

https://bsky.app/profile/erdayastronaut.extwitter.link/post/3lfwkj7mdf724

Everyday Astronaut (@erdayastronaut.extwitter.link)

What it’s like to watch a #Starship Super Heavy booster fall from space and be caught by the launch tower it took off from!!! That was one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen in my entire life!!! So glad I was able to see it in person this time!

▶ Play video

Bluesky · Jan 17, 2025, 1:30 AM

[wise orchid]

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1880655580823773354?t=Nh7um34XwUuJdE_4qlahHw&s=19

SpaceX (@SpaceX) on X

Super Heavy ignites 13 Raptor engines for the start of its landing burn, then uses three for precise steering for catch

X · Jan 18, 2025, 4:36 PM

[terse star]

Thanks Captain obvious

[steep wedge]

Debris hunting (no luck so far)

[novel fulcrum]

Oof

I’ll be going out later today probably

Not a lot of people since it’s so cloudy here lol

[hollow pivot]

wonder what they would have said if that raptor didn't relight

[flat mortar]

That it's a test program

[astral rapids]

https://tenor.com/view/me-atrapaste-es-cine-its-cinema-cinema-esto-es-cine-gif-12869046600151364058

[foggy tree]

It also took new Glenn probably 3x as long to launch as it did SpaceX. Blue origin was supposed to have New Glenn up and running like 5 years ago. Flight 7 was a 10% success only because ship almost made it to seco. Booster catch has nothing to do With the BIG objectives they wanted to accomplish this test flight

[ebon bane]

I dunno why you're trying to make anything partial there considering that the thing exploded before it could actually test any of the major things being tested (aside from re-flying r314 but like cmon)

this shouldnt be a debate, this was a clusterfuck

not necessarily some game-ending game over shit, spx will pick up on flight 8 and just shift all the other exciting '25 tests down

[foggy tree]

They got to test the plumbing of v2 ship. They got to test the new clamping styles of heat shields. Got to test the new metallic heat shields, albeit not the way they wanted to. Yes this was a terrible result of a test flight. But it could have been worse. They got data

[ebon bane]

ok i see what you're trying to put down now

yeah thats fair

[foggy tree]

I will be the first to say this was almost the worst case scenario for flight 7, only being worse is if it blew up on the pad. Or sometime before hot staging. But because ship has ses-1 and basically made it to seco there was a lot of data collected

[main root]

After loss of telemetry they got 0 data so any heatshield lessons were not learned

[foggy tree]

Not true

[main root]

yes true

How the hell would they get data if they aren’t getting any data from the vehicle lmao

[broken linden]

The only information about the heatshield is that it didn't completely fall off ig

[main root]

Yeah that’s it

[worthy musk]

Well the heat shield certainly isn't tested this time (unless you think the failure is heat shield related)

[main root]

Nothing about its performance in re-entry

[jade zinc]

the only heatshield related test is adherence during ascent, which definitely isn't the critical path here

[crude torrent]

i mean they also said they got data about the flap aerodynamics which i could see

[foggy tree]

they still got data from the heat shield, before loss of comms

[foggy tree]

it was tested a little bit, but not the way they wanted it to be test.

the new holding pins they tested were put through a little bit of testing

[crude torrent]

and if they can get recovered heatshields, they can see the state of them after going through reentry-like conditions (similar speed)

[foggy tree]

yea, all thought the data would be scewed because they might not have went black side first, among other things

[jade zinc]

sure, some ascent aero but overall that data isn't super interesting relative to entry

[main root]

They didn’t re-enter before loss of comms

[foggy tree]

they dont have to reenter to get data for the heat shield

[main root]

my point was that the data about heatshield performance specifically was not gathered I.e re-entry

Attachment data sure

[foggy tree]

for sure

[novel fulcrum]

Goes hard https://fixupx.com/HeySlattz/status/1880685533749452940

[obtuse bough]

wtf is that song

[woeful talon]

That's a fantastic video!

[sage prairie]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/878646225069543474/1330185177242140807/s33.gif

[unborn tapir]

I'm out of words dang it, its the best video so far

[hot roost]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE55MeTuS7H/

here's the link

since I didn't provide it

[woeful talon]

Is it bad I now want to see a spacecraft break up like that in person?

[novel fulcrum]

Nope

It’s beautiful

[unborn tapir]

It's sad but beautiful

NSF premiere

Flight 7 images

[sullen ermine]

some nozzles got deformed after all

at least it's not as bad as B12

https://fixupx.com/MikuMikuDancer/status/1880583290379509890

[jaunty canopy]

They stretch genuinely helps but it’s also so funny

[woeful talon]

No surprise.

Before Flight 6 I was hearing an inspector talk about how deformed they were! (on Booster 12)

[sullen ermine]

https://tenor.com/view/500-cigarettes-five-hundred-cigarettes-gif-6779891482871762392

[jaunty canopy]

You can also see how the ones that were active are nearly perfectly in round

[woeful talon]

Hmm

33 engine landing burn

[jaunty canopy]

I was really surprised to see them do it with 13 too

has anyone tracked what kind of deceleration that was

[leaden socket]

I reckon something around 8.5 g if they're at full thrust. I plan to do some telemetry ripping and analysis tomorrow and can get more accurate numbers from that.

(this is calculated from the stats on wikipedia assuming around 2% prop load during peak landing burn thrust.)

Might be a bit less prop, idk

[median skiff]

this video is incredible

[jaunty canopy]

phew, yea

[hollow pivot]

https://vxtwitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/1880737418191794397

holy shit

[sage prairie]

good god it straight up looks like a render

[hollow pivot]

this shot genuinely has me in awe

like no words at all

[gloomy stream]

For real ^^

[finite raven]

dat sonic ring

[wise orchid]

https://x.com/UNIVERL_Rockets/status/1880746710714220628
look how much cleaner it looks

Universal rockets (@UNIVERL_Rockets) on X

Flight 5 vs flight 7 catch

Edited: me
Footage: @SpaceX and @lifeatstagezero

X · Jan 18, 2025, 10:38 PM

[sullen ermine]

add fixup before x for tweets with multiple pics or w/ a video ☝️
it's easier to watch it in Discord directly

[wise orchid]

oh okay good to know thank you

[crude torrent]

https://vxtwitter.com/UNIVERL_Rockets/status/1880746710714220628

[sage prairie]

it's insane just how much better it looks

[scarlet lintel]

just don't watch Columbia disaster documentaries beforehand

[obtuse bough]

holy shit on flight 7 it blasted the tower shielding

[woeful talon]

Oh dang I missed that.

Anyone down there that can get a good image of it? lol

[obtuse bough]

…no i mean in the video above…

[woeful talon]

I mean any damage to it

[obtuse bough]

probably not

[woeful talon]

I like how toasty the cladding gets

[crude torrent]

iirc it hit where it would've been on flight 5 and slightly damaged the tower, hence why they put the shielding

[finite raven]

other than the flames,.. whats the difference? looks like it went the same

flight 5 seems to come in at a better angle

note the bottom section of tower

f5 was well away from it, f7 got so close to it

the flames looks so different im not sure how to judge, if its cuz of the light/time of the day or the humidity, etc etc

f7 is closer to the tower

maybe

[leaden socket]

Cladding getting lightly toasted

It might be partly a result of F7 trying to come in a bit faster

IDK why I put a red circle

I'm like one of those clickbait channels

[finite raven]

look in ths area!

but yes the flame do look different

i was wondering about booster entry speed as well

[leaden socket]

I better get back to optimizing my telemetry ripping code and run that on this latest flight

[finite raven]

curious on length of braking as well

ya know what imean?

i.e. start of relight to catch

[woeful talon]

toasty cladding post flight 6

I bet it's toastier now

[scarlet lintel]

it was a faster deceleration this time. according to Marcus House

[woeful talon]

Which was the plan for flight 6.

Although this one was less explodey

[finite raven]

oh dang

[woeful talon]

pre-flight 6

If anything it may be cleaner after lol

[leaden socket]

On flight 5 it was about 24 seconds, while on flight 7 it was... ...maybe a half second or so shorter. I'm just judging by the SpaceX streams and eyeballing it

[sullen ermine]

mmmm crunchy cladding

[finite raven]

i see

thanks man

[leaden socket]

I could be seeing a shortening where there is none

Maybe I will be able to determine more accurately after ripping the telemetry

[finite raven]

maybe there is actually a second or 2 difference, who knows,, all depends on trajectory and all

yea

i think it would be worth looking into in future catches and all, to see if theres any difference, in speed, braking, from various telemetery

[leaden socket]

I imagine there's probably a limit to how hot SpaceX wants it to come in. The braking burn is likely planned with room for 1-2 engines to fail relight without piledriving into the ground 100 m from the launch mount. That would be a giant mess to clean up, even if it didn't damage any critical equipment.

[scarlet lintel]

it landed noticeably harder on the tower arms, supposedly

https://youtu.be/P3bq2C1qo1g?si=ThTZOiROLWo11Ng-&t=299

at 4:59, "the landing burn was planned to be three seconds shorter"

[obtuse bough]

https://www.rxddit.com/r/ThatsInsane/s/vQCdAYewrg

[fierce dust]

Wouldn’t this burn all on re-entry?

[rough marsh]

No

[flat palm]

why would heatshield tiles burn up

thats like

[rough marsh]

It's literally made not to

[flat palm]

yeah

[fierce dust]

Dunno, I thought given the uncontrolled speed and explosion etc.. nothing much would make it back

[jaunty canopy]

Less of the primary structure might on account of it no longer being shielded but the heat shield tiles are pretty heat resistant

[supple hull]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE-y129PaEg/?igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[obtuse bough]

waiting for the

High quality downloads and prints available soon 🚀
but hopefully they wont be paywalled

[unborn tapir]

dude

literally no one called SpaceX ?

on the debris hotline

[obtuse bough]

what are you, the spacex debris hotline police?

[woeful talon]

The tiles are also really low density so they're going to be slowed by the air more than a similar size chunk of steel.

And more likely to float

[jaunty canopy]

I wouldn’t be surprised. If your options are:

• have a piece of spaceship as a keepsake
• give the piece of spaceship back to the people who blew it up in the first place with likely no reward
  Which would you take?

[flat mortar]

Have

[woeful talon]

FWIW I emailed [email protected] with the debris I found after flight 6 and never heard back

[jaunty canopy]

ha! Nice

[crude torrent]

i mean given that you're seeing it...

[woeful talon]

The RIGHT thing to do is to reach out. Then if they want/need it back they can take care of it (I would ensure it's at their expense).

But most lively they really don't care.

[crude torrent]

i mean i could see them asking for a piece or two if you had a really big haul

to run tests

but the people running the hotline also know how much theyd hate it if they only got one piece and it was taken away by the company

[woeful talon]

If there is any value in it.

I doubt there is in flight 7 heatshield tiles.

There wasn't any real rest done on them.

[crude torrent]

🤷

not just talking abt heat tiles tho

like the rvac piece that "fell on a car"

[woeful talon]

Yeah, THAT could have value to SpaceX. To the point where if they need it I would expect them to at least cover any costs related to its transportation at least.

[forest brook]

another grain silo saved

thank elon

[woeful talon]

Other reasons to send an email:
-they may confirm that it's a part. That way, you have documentation from SpaceX that it is what it is.
-if you ever try to sell it or something and SpaceX claims they own it, you can point to the email you sent that they never responded to.

[unborn tapir]

hmm

has anyone found the metal ones

?

what about the actively cooled one ?

[jaunty canopy]

That’s like one in a million 7000

[foggy tree]

i think there are like 18000 tiles on starship

roughly

[jaunty canopy]

Ah so then 1 in… 3000, maybe?

[foggy tree]

i think there was only one actively cooled on the ship

[jaunty canopy]

Oh I was thinking metallic ones. They showed three but there might’ve been more

[foggy tree]

yea, there were three metallic ones, so roughly 1 in 6000 to find any of the 3

[jaunty canopy]

Now, people do find a couple hundred of them

but I’m not sure the odds are in favour

[fierce dust]

You’re right but generally I take the approach of assuming what I see from some random social media accounts might be fake…

[novel fulcrum]

https://fixupx.com/francescospace_/status/1881116735610503276?s=46

[flat mortar]

That's awesome

You can see individual prices

Peices

[flat palm]

pieces

it’s pieces

[flat mortar]

Autocorrect is failing me

[crude torrent]

individual pisces

[sage prairie]

these seem artificially touched up ngl

[terse star]

Obv yuh

[sullen ermine]

woke booster

[scarlet lintel]

https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/piscis#Latin

I got you covered

[novel fulcrum]

https://youtu.be/C1XAbl19quk?si=rCWLiQ2TnFra8mCA

[scarlet lintel]

ROCKET PORN! 🍿

lol I think it ended up a little closer to the tower than necessary

which might be why it burned the tower base

[novel fulcrum]

I think that was intentional

They said they wanted to do a harder landing than before to push it

[scarlet lintel]

well harder sure, but it wasn't centered on those triangular stabilization arms that hang down from the catch arms, it was behind, so that's why I though it might be a little more "inwards" than indeal

[leaden socket]

That also might be intentional since the arms for the newer tower(s) are shorter, so SpaceX might want to test landing closer to the tower. Gotta see how the cladding holds up to Raptor exhaust blast I guess.

[heavy sable]

Yea on next chopsticks a landing this close would be rather close to the edge prolly

[scarlet lintel]

ah maybe

[novel fulcrum]

https://fixupx.com/PettitFrontier/status/1881469909407776784

[flat mortar]

https://youtu.be/vNfpUjMNGWA

That's awesome

[sage prairie]

https://fixupx.com/SpaceX/status/1881833313339580591?t=vFtRKAH-B6wtAf34tYprnA&s=19

[novel fulcrum]

saw this in a gc and this was my live reaction

[sage prairie]

based honestly

that third image is sublime

[novel fulcrum]

can see that damage

[rough marsh]

It was damaged on both right and left sides lol

[hollow pivot]

this is a lot better than the block 1 flap cam

[supple hull]

i keep forgetting you have a name

[astral rapids]

that is graphic

disgustingly magnificent

[novel fulcrum]

😭😭

I sure wish I knew your name

Idk what it is 🤷‍♂️

[supple hull]

mahddeighsynh sihyerrah grehyse

[sullen ermine]

fr lmfao

[supple hull]

i also forget you have a name

i remember a couple of the euros, those who have it as their name name, and the ones i know irl

[sullen ermine]

[supple hull]

it’s kinda crazy how many nxf people i’ve met irl atp

[jaunty canopy]

you could lower the number by banning them so they aren’t NXF anymore or killing them so they aren’t people

pro tip

[terse star]

what

[crude torrent]

i see the first part of that has already been tried

[sullen ermine]

Do we have a normal patch released? Not the IRL photo

[eager belfry]

Haven't been able to find one

[sudden lark]

Wdym

[sullen ermine]

vector/rastor image

Pixels instead of strings

[sage prairie]

I just noticed that all the engines are burning in the landing burn on this patch

[sullen ermine]

Pulling 50g breaking

TWR 20

[magic heart]

Ever since Flight 2 I think we've only had the recreations from SpaceXnow

[jaunty canopy]

No plume though maybe they’re burning in the normal sense and not active

[heavy sable]

Its actually the booster lifting off the chopsticks into orbit solo

[flat mortar]

Booster hop

[astral rapids]

only now had a chance to watch Tim's footage of flight 7 and some of the views look like animations its genuinely insane

[flat mortar]

Oh yeah definitely

[astral rapids]

he always gets some of if not the best footage of Starship flights

outside of spacex ofc

[terse star]

https://x.com/xdNiBoR/status/1881822846135181508

Robin (@xdNiBoR) on X

Booster 14 Ship 33

X · Jan 21, 2025, 9:55 PM

[finite raven]

is that trump kid?

[crude torrent]

Barron, yea

[scarlet lintel]

oh yeah wtf?!?!

[finite raven]

oh shit,.. no emotions as usual

[novel fulcrum]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-ikdoXaEIA

[buoyant sequoia]

I have to wonder how long the cameras were rolling

There is definitely a clip of me waving at them about an hour before Starbase evac’d if it was all day

[zenith igloo]

The PTZs may have since they're always active but everything else is set on a time trigger to start several minutes before the initial planned launch time

[flat mortar]

First clip reminds me of Gary's mod or something

[buoyant sequoia]

Gotcha then probably not lol. Was the ones at the intersection of Hwy 4 and LBJ

[abstract finch]

peak

[finite raven]

how is the tank farm unaffected by how close it is to the launch pad

[rough marsh]

There's a berm that protects it from the flames of the engines at ignition and after liftoff the engines are pretty much firing in a focused plume rather than expanding everywhere

The sound and pressure energies are not high enough to do that much to the tank farm

It would do a lot to us, though, but we're squishy and can die very easily

[finite raven]

ahh interesting

good to know

[rough marsh]

It's actually more dangerous for the tank farm if along with the sound and pressure there's stuff being flung around like what happened on Flight 1 with all the dust, sand, and concrete being sent everywhere

[finite raven]

yea obv

[heavy sable]

Just more reasons for pad B's new sound supression design

[finite raven]

oh?

which parts is the supression?

i havent seen the pad b since the parts started arriving and it was being staged

[heavy sable]

The olm stuff, the trench

[finite raven]

oh i thought there was something different that plays a part as a supressor

[heavy sable]

Yea new was meant like

New for starship

[finite raven]

have they started building it yet

[heavy sable]

That stuff is kinda standard everywhere else on every other rocket prolly

[finite raven]

hmm ok

[rough marsh]

The deck of the mount will be water cooled this time around

And I bet they might also spray water on top anyways

[finite raven]

oh yes thats right

different water supressions

[rough marsh]

The flame deflector at pad A uses water mainly for cooling. While it does a bit of sound suppression, it's not the main goal

On official documentation, the wording for pad B was that it would use water to cool the top deck and for sound suppression system

So in that case it'll be used for both cooling and sound suppression

[finite raven]

flame trench, im still curious what it looks like,.
Is it like a half pipe cut halfway and put together on the other side?

[scarlet lintel]

from what I heard it's like a large rectangular trough with an inverted V-shape right under the rocket mount, deflecting the flame into the trench on either side

[novel fulcrum]

https://fixupx.com/spacex/status/1882925462218997805⠀

three videos there

[sudden lark]

https://vxtwitter.com/spacex/status/1882925462218997805?
https://fixupx.com/SpaceX/status/1882925462218997805/video/2
https://fixupx.com/SpaceX/status/1882925462218997805/video/3

[jaunty canopy]

I wonder what onboard audio is like

[flat palm]

you can hear it overlapped on the onboard video

they included it

it’s that sorta hollow rattling sound

[jaunty canopy]

I don’t think so, that doesn’t start up until well after ignition

Unless they just faded it in, but then again we’ve heard external cams located close by that sound like that too

[flat palm]

it’s not on the other audios

and it sounds very much like prior onboards

of the early hops i remember

there was that same rattling sound

[leaden socket]

It's there at the beginning, it just gets significantly louder later in the video.

It's probably quiet at the beginning because for whatever reason someone felt a need to overlay the sonic boom

as that sound clip fades out the onboard becomes louder

The audio in the first clip is edited too

You hear the sonic boom and engine ignition in sync with the visible engine ignition, well before either event should have been audible.

[finite raven]

what sounds are we talking about? (im deaf)

[leaden socket]

Not exactly sure how to effectively describe the sound to a deaf person. Uh... A microphone onboard the booster picks up the metal structure vibrating due to forces from the wind and the engines.

However, someone also overlaid the sonic boom audio from a microphone on the ground somewhere

[foggy tree]

you can also hear the depress vent

which is a the high pitch venting you hear after the booster is caught

[heavy sable]

we need stupid subtitles to these sort of things, just write vreeeeeeEEE during the depress vent or something and boom boo-boom for the booms

[finite raven]

oh thats interesting!

thank you for the descriptions!

[sage prairie]

it's hard to describe sounds without referencing other sounds to be honest

[novel fulcrum]

Basically launch sound:
mmmmmbbbmmmbmvvmmmbbmbmMMMbbvBRMRRBRMRRRRMRRVRRRRMRRRMRRRBRBRBRRVRRMRRRRMRMRMRRRRRBRRRRRRRR

[buoyant sequoia]

I feel like launch sound is honestly so percussive that like

You would absolutely feel it anyway in a manner near identical to what it sounds like

At least for Starship like that shit feels like it's actively hitting you

[leaden socket]

I haven't gotten to go to one of these rocket launches yet, but I was at an airshow where a F-22 took off with afterburners lit.

I felt that in my chest

I figure rocket launch is like that, just scaled up

a lot

[median skiff]

I’ve only heard planes break the sound barrier once.. it was a loud rumble/explosion unlike anything I’d heard before. Social media was filled with people asking what just happened. So much louder than normal fighter jet activity

[supple hull]

daily reminder that i need to get my ass to boca chica 💀

[steep wedge]

Road trip!

[sage prairie]

do we have any more info out of what happened to the ship?

[steep wedge]

boom (citation needed)

[leaden socket]

Propellant leak -> fire above firewall -> engines shutdown -> ship falls out of launch corridor -> FTS -> Reentry fireworks show

[buoyant sequoia]

did they not say- yeah

[leaden socket]

That's all I know

[buoyant sequoia]

very relatable failure mode

real abl f1-901-005 enjoyers know

[supple hull]

that would probably be more expensive than just flying lmao

i did the drive when i move out here and im not sure i want to put my car through that again lmao

[zenith igloo]

Huh never thought about it that way

it is very similar

[jaunty canopy]

first stage, second stage, fire doesn’t discriminate

[buoyant sequoia]

thinking about the ex-abl camping trip in which 3 separate people took the radio callsign "fire in the aft cavity" spontaneously

myself included

[crude torrent]

https://girlcockx.com/mcrs987/status/1880527467641032742

[sage prairie]

excuse me what is that link

[flat palm]

😭 😭

[crude torrent]

look its more interesting than fx,vx or fixupx

[astral rapids]

the link lmaooo

[heavy sable]

How

[sullen ermine]

LMFAO

that's epic

[obtuse bough]

lmao

[novel fulcrum]

Wtf 💀

[scarlet lintel]

hey it's very relevant because president trump said all us boys are girls with cocks

[exotic notch]

I've was a km away from a tripod raptor test once (school org tour), and have been to quite a few airshows, and would say that is an accurate analogy to the feeling

[novel fulcrum]

Chat did I cook

[storm spindle]

Good shit

[novel fulcrum]

CapCut my beloved

[obtuse bough]

the subtitles and audio are out of sync

what is the purpose of this text

the video ends too soon and doesnt even last the whole chorus

but props for not messing with the colors so much that it becomes ugly like this

[finite raven]

why is words sideways

[novel fulcrum]

Idk 😭

Literally it’s just a CapCut edit lol

[obtuse bough]

but you made it...

https://youtu.be/froYsArduGg

[obtuse bough]

yeah, depending on the platform that that is posted to (tiktok cough), there could be ambiguity whether its meant to be viewed in landscape or portrait

[novel fulcrum]

I used a template lol

Big difference

Just thought it worked well and I think it did

I didn’t think about it too much lol, I’m in the middle of a 4 hour car drive and bored

[obtuse bough]

excuses
-# sorry ill stop

[hot roost]

https://x.com/jackiewattles/status/1885682571826118986

Jackie Wattles (@jackiewattles) on X

The FAA now says it has verified a report of Starship debris striking a car in South Caicos, causing "minor damage" after the Jan 16 explosion.

https://t.co/RFGARen1z8

X · Feb 1, 2025, 1:32 PM

😎

[finite raven]

oof

[main root]

And people argued it wasn’t possible

[zenith igloo]

despite the fact that we have literal video proof lol..

[desert ruin]

It's currently not verified, but they're looking into it.

[sudden lark]

“FAA HAVE verified”

[desert ruin]

Where are you quoting from?

[rough marsh]

I'm not sure if this is even needed but https://x.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1885750465205248160

Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) on X

Statement from the FAA confirming report of minor damage to a car from the Starship explosion over Turks and Caicos Islands. That's the only confirmed rpt of damage. No injuries.

X · Feb 1, 2025, 6:02 PM

[sudden lark]

Literally slightly above and what Alex posted

[desert ruin]

Ok; I haven't seen Marcia's post yet - but I just looked into the article link under the post of Jackie Wattles and this article only says that the FAA is looking into something but could not yet verify it

[sudden lark]

Also https://vxtwitter.com/ColeWZY/status/1880270627502019068

[hot roost]

It was an update to the article by the journalist

[desert ruin]

Got it - thanks

[torn knot]

starship

[storm spindle]

Also me

[buoyant sequoia]

@zenith igloo https://x.com/mcrs987/status/1886386447478816849?s=46

pretty decent thread. couple comments:

the claim here is that the LNG feed line failed and leaked enough to drop E1 fuel pump NPSH avail negative, cavitated the pump / killed E1, and that that lit the methane, fire in the aft cavity, something kills the battery, rest is history?

seems plausible enough. my main thoughts are

• must be a pretty big leak (or a valve issue that can more directly fuck up feed pressures) to drop a fuel pump into negative NPSHA. if it’s moving ~135 kg/s nominally and designed to throttle that flow much deeper that’s quite a bit of margin. decreasing fluid levels do decrease that margin linearly (hence header tanks) but we are talking about a pretty major leak that would have a few signs. it can also be both MFV and feedline or MFV and other unspecified leak source

• E1 dying seems reasonable enough. once you have the fire - I’m not so sure it would’ve been broadly visible in daytime reflecting off of anything. Doesn’t really need to be.

• Depending on what all is in the aft cavity there’s a lot of stuff you can do to cause a full vehicle shutdown if you aren’t careful (ask me how i know). Anything that causes a dead short across the main bus will likely not result in a good day. Most systems are built to triage shorts like this and try to offer enough redundancy to keep moving but usually any one of these kicking in makes the whole system more vulnerable and it becomes a matter of time

TheSpaceEngineer (@mcrs987) on X

Starship's 7th flight test resulted in an untimely demise of the Starship upper stage.

Through days of analysis and consulting several people on the matter I believe I have pieced together the majority of the timeline of exactly what happened to @SpaceX's Starship S33.

a 🧵

X · Feb 3, 2025, 12:09 PM

side note all of this is my own speculation no proprietary info

If I were working the fault tree and saw this I think there’s some decent evidence but I’d definitely be very interested in what other combinations of leaks or other contributing events (ie shock and vibe induced valve faults?) could lead to that kind of cascade

Or if something with the press system is wrong then it really is only a matter of time before all engines cascade off, but I think you’d see that manifest a bit differently

[zenith igloo]

Yeah pretty much on that summary.

• Also concur on the fact that it was probably a big leak considering the flow rate had visibly changed at the expected time through all the natural measurement noise that comes through the stream graphic.
• On that aft cavity bit, yeah there's a bunch of hardware down there. Apart from the main features (the battery, computer, motors etc) would still be in the same spot as we can see the weld marks for their instrument racks on the external wall of the vehicle. As for all the other fiddly bits it's almost certain to have changed a ton since the last photo we've gotten of that aft cavity (S25). So I couldn't reliably determine what could have caused LOS, but the fact that both computers disable simultaneously I do believe it's power related which lead me to the conclusion I posted.

[zenith igloo]

The press system was one of the first ideas I had when going about this and honestly I cannot see a failure scenario case for the system itself nor the effect to the engine to induce a fire (as, that seems to be the main culprit of problems by how many times they've mentioned said fire over any other potential problems)

I.E. This is the best timeline we can piece together with the super limited knowledge of what's inside that cavity, because in all honesty we don't know much of anything in that specific area

[crude torrent]

"breakdown" is one way to describe what happened to it lol

(yes ik what breakdown means im just trying and failing to be funny)

[novel fulcrum]

[rough marsh]

Didn't the graphic show the rate of methane going down after the engine had failed?

So like if the leak happened like 2-3min beforehand then why does the graphic go down after the engine fails?

Shouldn't it have been going down earlier?

[zenith igloo]

Both

There's a noticeable fluctuation just after +5 minutes which slowly stables back to "average"

[devout linden]

On pump failures, this video is an example I reference. It is not a pump, but it is an engine at full power being unloaded (the prop fell off). The cavitation bubbles will cause some damage to the impellers, but the big issue is unloading. Once you get bubbles, there is nothing to absorb the turbine power, and you get "full whoop". On some (non turbo) rocket pumps I worked on, they will yeet off at tens of thousands of RPM per second when unloaded, and turbopumps are worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhyEnqudx8M

[finite raven]

was there a starship test launch today?

or just f9?

[sage prairie]

no

there probably won't be one this month

[finite raven]

oof

[sage prairie]

due to the whole "raining debris on a populated area" thing that S33 did

[finite raven]

oh right, i guess it was for F9 stuff, i saw something somewhere about todays date,.. forgotten about it til now

[obtuse bough]

i, too, saw something somewhere about todays date and assumed a starship launch had happened

[finite raven]

ok glad im not going crazy cuz i cant seem to find that anymore

[obtuse bough]

bro what 😭 how do you misunderstand my message like that

[finite raven]

which part did you think i misunderstood?

you basically said you saw the same thing i saw, and im saying yeah im glad im not going crazy thinking i saw something that never existed

i just cant find that post

was pretty sure i saw a date of feb 4 launch

[obtuse bough]

no, im joking about how ”i saw something somewhere about todays date” is so general and abstract that it happens to me multiple times every day, and how assuming that ergo there was a starship launch is such a crazy conclusion that it would have you failing kindergarten

[finite raven]

ok

that joke so funny,. i forgot how to laugh

i aint in here all day everyday to know whats really happening, it was a glance and i was trying to confirm, but yeah glad i made the butt of your joke

have a good day

[main root]

Bro took it too personal

[crude torrent]

might b thinking of feb 24th, when the fcc filing opens

[finite raven]

Call it however you wanna call it, when someone speak to you in such way.

[rustic solar]

But as of now, Feb 24th is the earliest starship 8 would launch. Like you said, it's the opening of the FCC filing.

[magic heart]

yeah but what about flight 8

[rustic solar]

lol, I meant 8

i edited that post

[finite raven]

im not sure, MAYBE thats it,.. but i dunno.

moved on anyways

[obtuse bough]

i, too, saw something somewhere about MAYBE february 24th, which isnt even todays date

||and assumed a starship launch had happened||

[sage prairie]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/878646225069543474/1330185177242140807/s33.gif

[sage prairie]

did flight 7 have the receding hairline that flight 6 did?

[heavy sable]

I think so yea

[scarlet lintel]

welcome to the Internet!

[finite raven]

ok?

[scarlet lintel]

please take your obligatory AI-voiced scam ad

complimentary

[finite raven]

i wonder what went on through your head to think you feel the neccessary to say anything about it like some moron lmfao

[scarlet lintel]

complementary?

edit: yes this is the correct word

[scarlet lintel]

who? the original sarcastic guy or me? or Orion?

I don't see anything moronic about anything the three of us said, so it's unnecessarily rude either way

welcome to hypocrisy!

[finite raven]

you sound 14

[scarlet lintel]

it's good to be able to kick back and act carefree like a kid. you should try it!

though 14-year-olds are often at an edgy stage

let's just say I'm 41 instead. people are much more chill by then. and employ gratuitous use of irony in their conversation

so how old are you? when did you get into space?

[finite raven]

Finally found it I think it was part of the event notification for this

[scarlet lintel]

i.e. annahilateur's sarcastic response was well within reason

but at least it wasn't a Starlink mission