Fly the Lightning | Alpha FLTA004

[violet prawn]

https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1729202851245592598
https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1734644662517002468

@zinc patio hi

[zinc patio]

thankies

now time for people to wonder why this thread exists

[violet prawn]

Well it completed static fire and they expect a launch in December so we must be close

[livid garden]

Miranda rocket

[zinc patio]

not quite

[violet prawn]

This would look to me to be the NOTAM for this launch which shows a launch... checks notes this Saturday

[zinc patio]

well okay then I'll take it

much rather watch it at home than at work

[violet prawn]

It turns out it is not that

It's an amateur rocket from FAR but this shitty searcher is broken

[zinc patio]

lmao

[violet prawn]

I was looking for NOTAMs 10NM away from Vandenberg's runway and then it shows me a NOTAM from 600km away like ffs

[vernal smelt]

real

[leaden dove]

PLEASE DELAY A DAY ILY

[stray ridge]

lightning

[zinc patio]

reaver

[sly shard]

Hope we get a launch date soon (and hopefully a stream this time)

[violet prawn]

Yep, the website says a livestream will be up at T-60min

[sly shard]

Nice!

[buoyant garden]

Is this thread for alpha people only ?

I'm sure Schnappi has an alpha mentality

[zinc patio]

definitely not

all betas and gammas are welcome

[buoyant garden]

Sounds highly radioactive ngl

[zinc patio]

A familiar description

[wild surge]

https://tenor.com/view/gentleman-giga-chad-sigma-male-gif-25702945

[sly shard]

Speaking of gamma, whatever happened to Firefly Gamma? Is it still planned?

[zinc patio]

No, it's long dead

Thank fuck

I keep forgetting to remove it from the wiki article lmao

that whole article sucks I've patched over some of it but I should just write it from scratch

[wild surge]

Gamma isn't the MLV right?

[sly shard]

That stinks, it was a cool concept, very kerbal

[sly shard]

No that was the former Beta

Why did they rename Beta to MLV? Beta sounds wayyyyy cooler

[zinc patio]

much better

[zinc patio]

I knowwww
MLV is a temporary name, I don't know what the real one is

I wish they just kept it Beta though

FF internally still mostly calls it Beta from my understanding

[sly shard]

Beta definitely rolls off the tongue better than MLV

[buoyant garden]

Miranda when a rocket has wings

[zinc patio]

Real

fuck VTHL all my homies hate VTHL

to quote the great Joseph Barnard: "if you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly"

Either do VTVL or HTHL, don't mix both

[buoyant garden]

IF YOU'RE GONNA BE A BEAR, BE FLUFFY

[sly shard]

W Joey B

[zinc patio]

Joey has no Ls

[sly shard]

He never had and never will

[fast summit]

[vital pasture]

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59764.msg2550313#msg2550313
Morning launch December 20 it seems (8:48 - 10:26 am PST)

[leaden dove]

man

SCURB PLS

[crimson atlas]

No

[sly shard]

WHY WOULD YOU WISH FOR A SCRUB 😭

Scrubs are bad

[leaden dove]

so i can see it

[sly shard]

Ohhh that makes sense now

[violet prawn]

https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1736855188542046237

[zinc patio]

Genuinely kill me

Why do you fucks have to ruin everything

I can't even watch this shit now

go fuck yourself

I'm done

[ivory jacinth]

get real

it says “or”

so you can probably watch some firefly sided thing

restream idk

[zinc patio]

"Stay tuned for the livestream in collaboration with @NASASpaceflight!"

I will not watch a N$F stream

Honestly this feels personal

I'm really just done

[ivory jacinth]

collaborating with themselves real

[leaden dove]

what…

[leaden dove]

oh?

[wild surge]

tf was that about

did they really just leave the server over this?

[leaden dove]

i’ll talk to her in a bit

she really doesn’t like nsf

just give her a moment she needs space

[wild surge]

I can understand that I guess I'm just confused by how visceral of a reaction it was

[sly shard]

Why though, it's great

[desert dune]

'Tis a long and stupid tale

[leaden dove]

she just doesn’t

[sly shard]

Interesting

[rose sky]

Miranda has gone through one of her semi-yearly temporary Mirandeaths

[rose sky]

bit of an understatement

[ivory jacinth]

minor

[ripe rapids]

oh

[buoyant garden]

Drama queen

[jovial valley]

Hormone induced dramas

[toxic merlin]

carbon fibre rockets are so cool unless you’re Launcherone

[brave moat]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMJv-54Dpcc

[vital pasture]

Too late to convince Miranda to come back, I don't see NSF mentioned in the stream description

[violet prawn]

Mmmmm

I wouldn't rely on that stuff just saying 😅

[vital pasture]

Just kidding

[violet prawn]

The thumb art is pretty much like our normal launch livestream thumb

Just with FF's letter style

[brave moat]

I assume it will be the same transmission for both channels.

[violet prawn]

Miranda got mad at me cause she thought I had known about all of this for a long time or something like that. Tried to tell her it had nothing to do with this but she blocked me. Her loss then 🫠

[wild surge]

So... she was serious when she said she thought it was personal?

[violet prawn]

I guess?

[wild surge]

I feel bad saying this but it seems pretty self-centered to think a company collabing with NSF for streaming coverage is somehow for some kind of personal vendetta

[ivory jacinth]

firfli

[long flame]

https://vxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737317079869772002

[leaden dove]

pgo 30%

[vital pasture]

Yeah looking at weather models and it ain't good
Tomorrow might be worse
https://vxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737470199761375729

[leaden dove]

tomorrow the range is held for SARah no?

but yes sarah scrubbing would be nice

[vital pasture]

SARah is on the 22nd

[leaden dove]

oh did the app lie

hoping for clear skies

[vital pasture]

Huh? It was updated a day or two ago

[leaden dove]

o

me when i’m illiterate

[bleak sentinel]

Oh shit this is today

[vital pasture]

https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737477518066651494?s=20

[leaden dove]

yeah they’re not flying

[vital pasture]

https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737483447252213810?s=20

[violet prawn]

https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737497640621748344

[leaden dove]

MWAH

HALLELUJAH ANEN

[sly shard]

[rough prism]

oh

today is fire fly

or was

[steel jetty]

Now TBD

[vernal smelt]

today's rain fly

[sly shard]

If it gets moved to tomorrow or Friday at the same time, I won’t be able to watch it

[leaden dove]

the weather sucks fat balls tomorrow so unlikely

[ivory jacinth]

apollo 12 it

[leaden dove]

no please don’t

i want to be able to see it

[plain patio]

I just saw red in the manifest and was like s*** another Alpha failure until I properly read it as scrub

[vital pasture]

I just see from NOTAMs that F9/SARah next door has moved to December 23, maybe this can take the 22nd which seems to have more promising weather

[sly shard]

Showing Dec. 22nd now: https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis.jsp?advn=47&adv_date=12202023&facId=ATCSCC&title=ATCSCC ADVZY 047 DCC 12/20/2023 OPERATIONS PLAN&titleDate=12/20/2023

[leaden dove]

hopefully clear?

[ivory jacinth]

looks only like rain about 12-4am, low winds around launch time (if it targets same as today)

[brave moat]

More images:

Source: https://x.com/seanparkerphoto

[ivory jacinth]

https://vxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737609454726910009

[jovial valley]

What're these square things on the fairing in this photo?

[ivory jacinth]

windows

[jovial valley]

They're not visible in this image though

[ivory jacinth]

the windows closed

duh

[toxic merlin]

I assume it’s on the other side of the fairing

[ivory jacinth]

yeah

umbilical hookups probably

[jovial valley]

So I assume that the US flag and LM logo are on both sides?

[toxic merlin]

Yeah, that’s how it was in previous alpha fairing at least

[jovial valley]

Looks like you're right, you can see the umbilical attached to roughly that spot on the fairing in this photo

[toxic merlin]

In victus nox you can you can actually see umbilicals being attached to the 2 ports

but wait the victus nox mission you can also see the 2 ports on the front side of the fairing too, wtf

Actually wait all the past missions seems to have the 2 ports on both sides of the fairing , hmm so this mission’s would actually be weird if it only had it on one side

[jovial valley]

That's odd
Maybe they had the ports on each side to reduce manufacturing costs and for this launch they're using a different manufacturing method?

[leaden dove]

maddie can into space

[rough prism]

you will never into space

[leaden dove]

lies

[buoyant garden]

Nobody can hear the voices in your head in space

[rough prism]

Nobody can hear the voices in your head in space

[vital pasture]

https://fxtwitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738202523503083941

[leaden dove]

maddie have a non completely overcast launch challenge (impossible)

[rose sky]

we are NOT ready to Joe

[buoyant garden]

Is it joever ?

[leaden dove]

definitely not

weather should cooperate

just won’t have the longest viewing time

we are (hopefully) going

@zinc patio do you have NOTAMs or road closure maps perchance

i’m trying to figure out if i can get into surf beach cause ill have the best view there

[vital pasture]

NOTAMs aren’t going to help
Let me check if Space Launch Delta 30 has anything

[leaden dove]

was thinking it would indicate direction of flight

[rough prism]

launch stream chat is the most civil thing i've seen in a while

[vital pasture]

Ah OK
It's going retrograde towards southwest
I'll post later

BTW you might try to head to this junction first, it's possible cops are there
https://maps.app.goo.gl/9ppEs2sbGohsJUS16

[leaden dove]

gotcha

[vital pasture]

Inclination might be somewhere like 160 degrees

[leaden dove]

okay about an 1hr 26 til i reach the roadblock

https://fixupx.com/Firefly_Space/status/1738225674652107159?s=20

what i like to see

[vital pasture]

BTW @leaden dove If the roadblock ends up a bit closer than there (happened on quite a few Falcon 9 launches before, although the F9 pad is definitely closer so I dunno) this place might be an alternative. No idea if it's open today though.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.msg2338821#msg2338821
https://maps.app.goo.gl/vUPGiL8LvrAC22JY9

[leaden dove]

in traffic rn

i think i’m just gonna commit to ocean boulevard

9:15am arrival now

[vital pasture]

That's gonna be close lol
Where's your car now at

[leaden dove]

in traffic

on the 101

🤞🤞🤞i get the honk

[vital pasture]

Good luck
I missed my chance in Japan in August and I think it's most likely my next shot at a rocket launch is either Cape or Vandy, someday

[leaden dove]

🙏🙏

losing lots of time

nearly shat myself

almost through the big jam

speed is alive

9:17am arrival

[vital pasture]

Off Topic: I was looking up and I never knew LA to Lompoc/VSFB is 230+ km (even Santa Barbara to Lompoc is like 85+ km)

[leaden dove]

yeah it’s a hot minute

sky def clearing some

[ivory jacinth]

reminder to go search ufo on twitter after launch

[leaden dove]

so true

idk if we’ll get that much of a UFO response bc of the clouds

[long flame]

heck of a way to start the stream

[vital pasture]

Rocking music on the Firefly stream

[fickle osprey]

\m/

[leaden dove]

this music goes hard

[fickle osprey]

Get Tim Dodd to pivot and start playing this music instead. haha

[leaden dove]

intro goes hard

[toxic merlin]

STREAMS STARTED

[leaden dove]

rocket

i’m so excited yall

[zinc patio]

WE ARE GOING

[toxic merlin]

MLV chief engineer

[leaden dove]

i cannot wait

[ivory jacinth]

te or rocket?

[leaden dove]

i’m hoping i’ll have some launch photos today

[zinc patio]

EW

I'm behind

N$F intro on a FF stream

[leaden dove]

can we be happy pls

[ivory jacinth]

how god damn behind are you

[zinc patio]

oh wait it's FF footage

[ivory jacinth]

im at -56:25

[zinc patio]

huh

[long flame]

Just the music which isn't even ours

[zinc patio]

I'm 3 min behind

[ivory jacinth]

m

[steel jetty]

No live views after SECO today

[ivory jacinth]

NUH UH

[toxic merlin]

“At request of the customer “

[leaden dove]

sky def clearing up to the west some

[zinc patio]

meh long as we get burning Lightning I'm happy

[violet prawn]

it's a payload with secret stuff

[leaden dove]

maddie can into launch photography maybe™️

[ivory jacinth]

engine #2 at t+13.964 into the flight:

[violet prawn]

I think this is the first time I see the full LOX tank frosty

[leaden dove]

if this occurs i will have great photos

[violet prawn]

Normally there are patches of non frosted tank

Even over the decals huh

[ivory jacinth]

sometimes it’s frosty sometimes it’s not

[violet prawn]

9:32:30AM PST

[leaden dove]

SO PRETTY

[ivory jacinth]

sometimes it’ll be a perfect break over the decal

[leaden dove]

AHHHHHHHHHH

[ivory jacinth]

lockheed mawtin:3

[toxic merlin]

LMAO

[ivory jacinth]

LMFAO

[leaden dove]

hi i’m exciting for todays firefly mission exits

dying

[zinc patio]

hi paul hi paul

[violet prawn]

You could say you're mad-ie about it 🤪

[leaden dove]

💀

[long flame]

why do all dod company execs talk the same way

[ivory jacinth]

idk

[leaden dove]

he seems like a robot

[ivory jacinth]

npc

[leaden dove]

chatgpt

[steel jetty]

Because it's the same robot with different clothes /s

[ivory jacinth]

our european space agency

[zinc patio]

would have done 20 hours if not for scrub

[leaden dove]

hot damn

that goes hard

hoping it all works

[zinc patio]

bad connection out there?

gah the new youtube app is worthless

is there a way to disable chat taking up the entire screen

[ivory jacinth]

the x

in the corner

[leaden dove]

it’s okay

it’s good enough out at vandy

just not at surf

[zinc patio]

where lol

[zinc patio]

It's not a visual bug I think

[leaden dove]

29min til i rockup

[ivory jacinth]

oh that’s different

for me

[zinc patio]

most intelligent N$F chatter

[toxic merlin]

Jordi jumpscare

[ivory jacinth]

GAH

[steel jetty]

Usually that is possible using this button

[zinc patio]

JORDI MADE IT IN

I CAN'T TYPE

HI

[ivory jacinth]

IT IN

[leaden dove]

who’s jordie

[zinc patio]

Alpha lead engineer, the guy who screamed at the NOI callout on To The Black

[leaden dove]

gotcha

[toxic merlin]

https://fixupx.com/firefly_space/status/1738238971526717745?s=46&t=LJKHrV0aE-lqVMS68FjSGg

[leaden dove]

YEEHAW

how green?

[zinc patio]

"designed built manufactured in house" Yuzhmash erasure smh

[leaden dove]

pissing and shitting rn

dino nugget

[toxic merlin]

amazing

[zinc patio]

Epic fail

Briggs!!!

Great stand views

T-37 min ish for Briggs package 🔖

[rough prism]

what a thing to stay up late for

[leaden dove]

13 minutes margin

[ivory jacinth]

buh

[toxic merlin]

“Over on X”

[ivory jacinth]

sobbing rn

[leaden dove]

getting close to lompoc

[ivory jacinth]

hot view

[leaden dove]

S2e chill

[toxic merlin]

https://vxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1738243781747519699

[leaden dove]

YEEEEEEEEEHAW

this video goes hard

a mile til lompoc

[zinc patio]

GNG

YES

[leaden dove]

YESYESYES

[long flame]

all green

[zinc patio]

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES

LD GO

WE ARE GO

FOR LAUNCH

OF ALPHA FLTA004

WE ARE GOING

[rough prism]

we are so going up

[leaden dove]

GOT MY GNG

YEEHAW

[rough prism]

the hell is a gng

oh

[long flame]

one with the plots, what a line

[rough prism]

my brain slow as hell fr

[ivory jacinth]

we are joeing

[leaden dove]

they all talk the same

nice orion cameo

[rough prism]

stream transition looking like a live replay transition fr

[zinc patio]

BILLLLL

[ivory jacinth]

before we launch we’d like to thank our sponsor

[zinc patio]

Oh huh terminal count is at T-15 min instead of 20 now

[ivory jacinth]

engine

also timeline

chat is this real

[leaden dove]

okay so i prob won’t have a view for that long

for some clouds

[zinc patio]

First rocket you see will be Alpha

Glorious

[leaden dove]

hopefully yeah

clouds are def higher than last time

[toxic merlin]

Bill Weber!!!

(I’m very delayed)

[rough prism]

ooo that's a nice timeline

[leaden dove]

i see the roadblock

[ivory jacinth]

can we get a w firefly in chat guys?
rocket explodes during max q
can we get an f in chat guys?

[rough prism]

can we not

[vital pasture]

Your first launch?

[leaden dove]

dos

[zinc patio]

E

very important

[ivory jacinth]

estrogen

[zinc patio]

not wrong

[native summit]

🙏

[ivory jacinth]

woah

fast

[zinc patio]

strongback view!!!

[vital pasture]

Is that further back than what I marked

[ivory jacinth]

engine abort

real

[long flame]

we go

[rough prism]

i cant with the transition

[toxic merlin]

GO FOR LAUNCH

[zinc patio]

"SEND IT"

[violet prawn]

https://tenor.com/view/larry-enticer-send-it-just-gif-13099040

[zinc patio]

LD GO

[rough prism]

we are so go

[native summit]

go for

[zinc patio]

RANGE COORDINATOR GO

[native summit]

lauuuuncchhhh

[zinc patio]

GO GO ACROSS THE BOARD

[obtuse vortex]

oh right it lives here

very nice cams

If not a lot of frames

[rough prism]

vent noise

[zinc patio]

1 MIN

[native summit]

pshhh

[obtuse vortex]

ambient launch pad sounds to relax and study to

[desert dune]

Hello I just tuned in

[obtuse vortex]

just in time

[rough prism]

i would honestly study to that

[zinc patio]

30

20

[obtuse vortex]

Well, maybe not once it lights

[long flame]

we going

[obtuse vortex]

I see liftoff

[pastel carbon]

Liftoff

[rough prism]

up and away

[zinc patio]

THERE SHE GOES

[ivory jacinth]

GOOO

[toxic merlin]

ITS SO OVER

[rough prism]

funny tracking for a sec there

[desert dune]

Pretty plume

[violet prawn]

Yo right at the top of the window on the first try

Props to them

Not even Starshit

[zinc patio]

FLTA001 went first window, just not top

[toxic merlin]

They accidentally cut over to the green screen for a second lol

[rough prism]

feed is just dead wdf

[obtuse vortex]

OOPS

[zinc patio]

LOL

FAIRING VIEW

[rough prism]

payload cam

[ornate owl]

was I supposed to see that

[zinc patio]

HAHAHAHAHA

[ivory jacinth]

UH

[obtuse vortex]

They showed the payload lol

[gleaming wind]

LMAO

[ivory jacinth]

LMFAO

[zinc patio]

MOST COMPETENT N$F CAMOP

[obtuse vortex]

I don’t think they were supposed to do that

[rough prism]

my honest reaction

[native summit]

shows the payload

AHHAHA

[somber juniper]

On my tiny screen that shit looked like a falcon 9

[gleaming wind]

https://tenor.com/view/йокелемене-men-in-black-light-sunglasses-gif-15516530

[obtuse vortex]

anyone get a picture of that

[ivory jacinth]

hope this doesn’t die later

[rough prism]

just scrub back lmao

[somber juniper]

Didn't they say SECO-1?

[rough prism]

engine

what is that

[livid garden]

sep?

[obtuse vortex]

I dunno if if this livestream will be available later, and my phone won’t let me

[livid garden]

meco

there we go

[zinc patio]

MECO

[ivory jacinth]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1013160418019131503/1187810494279585812/bQwVxM2.png?ex=65983dba&is=6585c8ba&hm=bdb13d714a3cfa333d769eb91c6f9c1b09e5a243f7934db5dba0ab24178521d6&

[rough prism]

i shall do it after meco

[obtuse vortex]

Second engine light woo

[rough prism]

oh

[zinc patio]

SSEP

[rough prism]

someone did it

[obtuse vortex]

thanks

[zinc patio]

LIGHTNING IGNITION #1!!!

BEAUTIFUL

[rough prism]

it is so continuing

[livid garden]

fairing

[ivory jacinth]

YESSS

[rough prism]

mmmm

[native summit]

eh I don't think they're forbidden to show the payload

[ivory jacinth]

oh

[native summit]

I think it's intentded

[livid garden]

looking good

[obtuse vortex]

ok maybe it’s fine then

[somber juniper]

Yeah they're just flat out showing it

[rough prism]

yeah this isnt classified or anything right

[long flame]

It's probably to hide the final orbit

not the sat itself

[somber juniper]

They said they were cutting after seco-1 so it'll just be the orbit they don't want them to know

Ye

[keen abyss]

You might imagine my surprise when I first tune in this is my first view, I thought it blew up lmao

[desert dune]

Alright imma go do other stuff tell me how the rest goes

[ivory jacinth]

“das shut the fuck up”

[obtuse vortex]

oh yea that makes sense

[rough prism]

pipes

(what exactly is that though)

[ivory jacinth]

THE FOURTH TIME

[long flame]

the reflection in the solar cells is super cool

[obtuse vortex]

what was this anyway, first stage engine section?

[leaden dove]

MADDIE CAN INTO LAUNCH PHOTOGRAPHY

road is already open

[long flame]

I don't know anything about this broadcast but if we keep showing the payload then I'd guess we can show it lol

[obtuse vortex]

ayyy did you get a good view

[leaden dove]

YES

[rough prism]

split view

no more split view

[obtuse vortex]

nice!

[long flame]

love the forward cam

[ivory jacinth]

shits and giggles

[rough prism]

that payload cam looks so nice

[somber juniper]

Someone ping me if it detonates

[rough prism]

check your notifications (it will be very empty)

[long flame]

yawing around

[keen abyss]

[livid garden]

secow

[long flame]

noi

[somber juniper]

On the one hand I saw the emoji on the other I thought it blew up

[rough prism]

it's almost 1am and i am watching funny rocket from half the earth away bring funny thing into space

[zinc patio]

SECO-1

[violet prawn]

Woo!

[obtuse vortex]

lightning burns for a while

[violet prawn]

Alpha is in orbit again!

[zinc patio]

NOMINAL TRANSFER WINDOW

ALPHA IS IN THE BLACK AGAIN AGAIN

[desert dune]

Epic

[rough prism]

claps

[obtuse vortex]

transfer orbit, right?

[rough prism]

a bunch

[obtuse vortex]

nominal transfer orbit

[livid garden]

yea

[ivory jacinth]

the fire flew

[zinc patio]

close enough too excited to type

[obtuse vortex]

the Lightning even flew

[vital pasture]

Burn #2 at T+49:28

[obtuse vortex]

aight that’s still leo

[wild surge]

calls it X
using the Twitter logo

lel

[toxic merlin]

Firefly really wants alpha to do responsive space missions

[zinc patio]

lmao asked if Elytra was from minecraft

someone had to do it

[rough prism]

the fire flown

im gonna eep

[long flame]

nice

[leaden dove]

@zinc patio your baby

[zinc patio]

omfg

[wild surge]

Firefly merch drop

[long flame]

this merch does go hard

[leaden dove]

it was not exactly where i thought it was

the lady that screamed THERE IT IS ily forever

[vital pasture]

You want real responsive space launchers?

[vital pasture]

NICE

BTW are you coming back (or just stay around, going up the PCH or visit vineyards nearby) for SARah tomorrow morning

[leaden dove]

hopefully will watch SARah but it depends if my mom can wake up

[zinc patio]

TRENCH CAM

[leaden dove]

how’d the rest of the launch go?

was too busy jumping up and down on the side of the road

[zinc patio]

PERFECT

they're cycling through clean feeds now

alt angles

[long flame]

need to calibrate the joystick on this tracker

[leaden dove]

YESYESYESYESYES

[toxic merlin]

Good stream, lowkey a bit sad we didn’t get any new MLV info tho

[vital pasture]

In nominal transfer orbit now

[zinc patio]

launch notanytimesoon™️

[leaden dove]

YES

[violet prawn]

Hopefully we'll get a customer one day that requests more views rather than less

[vital pasture]

There’s a second engine burn in about 30 minutes

[violet prawn]

One day

[leaden dove]

well

FF caters to the government so lmao

THAT WAS SO FUCKING COOL THOYGH ABAHSHHSHSHAHA

SOACE

[vital pasture]

S/C sep is around 10:27 am PST

[leaden dove]

this guy from here was like eh it was okay the falcon tomorrow morning should be good though 💀💀💀💀

[violet prawn]

Lol

[wild surge]

I love CZ-11 just in its little tube there lol

[leaden dove]

we in this home depot for a post launch bathroom

[ivory jacinth]

mmm

[vital pasture]

https://fxtwitter.com/thejackbeyer/status/1738258914725278032?s=61

[long flame]

I need that engine shot on my wall

[zinc patio]

patch and shirt acquired

besides Sean Parker are there any photographers out there

[long flame]

Uh someone else was I think but need to go back and find what Jack said I think

[zinc patio]

ah it's Trevor

[long flame]

Yep that's it

[leaden dove]

hi

[zinc patio]

lol do you have a decent engine shot

I gotta continue the tradition

[leaden dove]

oh

lol no

[zinc patio]

new pfp every Alpha flight

[wild surge]

Yo

Gay Alpha

[obtuse vortex]

That one’s RTLS, right? I think I can see why they might say that if so.

[vital pasture]

Indeed RTLS

Probably in the pre-sunrise hours though
4:56 - 7:16 am PST

[obtuse vortex]

oh damn then it’ll probably do the twilight effect as well

[long flame]

should be hearing about the 2nd burn shortly

[obtuse vortex]

though you won’t see the booster coming back after entry burn before it lights for landing

[ivory jacinth]

lol terran orbital in the stream comments

I just realized I’ve never seen a full clean video of an alpha liftoff

until today

001 was too laggy, 002 cut out, nothing for 003

[leaden dove]

yeah it’ll be pretty

hoping i can make it

[bleak sentinel]

Did they do it

Did they fly the lightning

[zinc patio]

They Flew the Lightning
https://fxtwitter.com/TrevorMahlmann/status/1738261501046370745

Waiting to hear circ burn update

[bleak sentinel]

🤞

[leaden dove]

@zinc patio

[violet prawn]

Fly the bug

Bug the fly

[zinc patio]

guessing waiting on ground stations for update here

a real nailbiter

[vital pasture]

Yeah I knew Vandrnberg launches often lack downrange tracking.
I wonder where this one would have been picked up half an orbit away - Africa?

[rose sky]

I was on a plane did it work

[violet prawn]

the bug flew

[rose sky]

AYO

LETS GO

[leaden dove]

@zinc patio your bb

[zinc patio]

The holiest stick

[rose sky]

They did really fly the lightning tho

[zinc patio]

Should have done a full orbit by now....

[leaden dove]

oh lord

[zinc patio]

Even Tom 2 chimed in
https://fxtwitter.com/lrocket/status/1738272270559424701

[uneven ledge]

It’s joever alpha bros

Anyways another reason why we need more launchers

[leaden dove]

def isn’t over

[uneven ledge]

True rocket lab had the same issue

But idk

[zinc patio]

You dolt.

LV0007

Starlink 3-whatever

a dozen other missions in the last year

it happens

[uneven ledge]

I know

[rose sky]

Copecorvette

I bought a mission patch

No idea where I'm gonna put it

[toxic merlin]

Still nothing yet?

[zinc patio]

Nothing

[zinc patio]

Same, and the shirt. Will pair nicely

[leaden dove]

my guess is they’re just taking a sec

[obtuse vortex]

cute

[rose sky]

Need more Prigo memes

[sly shard]

Still nothing? This is getting worrying

[zinc patio]

it happens

tis fine

[leaden dove]

what are your people saying

[livid garden]

in before payload doesnt deploy

[leaden dove]

zumacore

[bleak sentinel]

any news what

its been like 2 hours

[copper spruce]

https://vxtwitter.com/planet4589/status/1738294781032202553?s=20

[bleak sentinel]

Yikes

Is the mission still partially functional in this state?

[zinc patio]

oh fuck no

[leaden dove]

maybe it was catalogued pre burn??

[copper spruce]

https://vxtwitter.com/planet4589/status/1738296967271174623?s=20

[steel jetty]

If the second stage didn't restart would they have deployed the satellite?

[leaden dove]

yeah

[desert dune]

RIP

[leaden dove]

https://fixupx.com/planet4589/status/1738297874444591301?s=20

[sly shard]

I was just about to send this, I have the link copied and everything 🤣

[leaden dove]

could still be okay

[sly shard]

True, they could be waiting for confirmation from a ground tracking station

[leaden dove]

oof

[toxic merlin]

Double oof

https://fxtwitter.com/TerranOrbital/status/1738302977712984513?t=Mn4SgU4ThzVASCb1XJcLhQ&s=19

[vital pasture]

Wonder if they ever tried restarting the engine
Flight 1 never reached that high, Flight 2 certainly didn’t before deploying those sats (and IIRC they didn’t tried it afterward)
Was there one on VICTUS NOX?

[leaden dove]

they tried a restart on F2 iirc

[obtuse vortex]

ow

[sly shard]

I don’t think it worked how they planned though

[leaden dove]

yeah it didn’t

keyword was tried

i bet northrup is glad they’re providing their own second stage for MLV

[sly shard]

Probably 🤣

Was it officially declared a failure/success yet?

[long flame]

Nothing from firefly or LM yet

[sly shard]

Now that I think about it, isn’t it Northrop providing the second stage?

[vital pasture]

Actually LM did tweet - before the 2nd burn occurred

https://fxtwitter.com/lmspace/status/1738258343695954136?s=46&t=9j2-lzDcIbRK6McrWkEb9g

[long flame]

Yeah I meant nothing about the status

[vital pasture]

Yeah for Antares 330, which for now is “interim” until MLV’s 2nd stage can be used

[leaden dove]

y e a h

oops

my badsies

[sly shard]

I get Lockheed and Northrop mixed up so often

They’re similar in names and what they do

[leaden dove]

https://fixupx.com/planet4589/status/1738316888252285439?s=20

[obtuse vortex]

its dead jim

well, the upper stage anyway. Sat might be ok

[vital pasture]

BTW just knew that the satellite bus has electric propulsion thrusters (as main system even)

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59764.msg2551973#msg2551973

[obtuse vortex]

oh, that makes it... worse, I think

more delta v but takes ages to get anywhere

we saw how well electric propulsion deals with low orbits on that one starlink launch a while back i think

[vital pasture]

That one doesn’t have 500 km apogees when deployed though

Also planar shape matters

[obtuse vortex]

yeah, so it's possible the overall drag could be low enough to recover

[native summit]

it's what, 100 m/s to raise that orbit to a circular 500km?

I get 87.23 m/s acceleration

[obtuse vortex]

continous? but I don't think the delta v would be prohibitve here

[vital pasture]

That might be pushing it for a small satellite, but I think it’s gonna be staying up for long enough.

[native summit]

probably needs less than one week of acceleration at apogee to raise it to a safe altitude ig

problem is drag

time to raise orbit and time until drag deorbits it is in the same order of magnitude

[obtuse vortex]

fight!!

not that we'll hear anything if it does probably

wait actually if the orbit's supposed to be secret why is the space force releasing TLEs on it

don't they not do that for spysats and X-37B and whatever else

[ripe rapids]

wait

I thought it was launching at 6am

[leaden dove]

what💀

[zinc patio]

Yeah, it has ACE lmao

[keen abyss]

Yall

I'm really sorry

I jinxed the flight

[zinc patio]

Imagine the hubbub Astra creates if a fuckin ACE saves the mission

[keen abyss]

Before the launch I said to myself "Imagine if this launch failed or something"

[zinc patio]

"do second stages ever fail"

[proper yarrow]

cfour be like

[keen abyss]

So everyone

I'm sorry

[zinc patio]

He's already singing in every single space server about it

[proper yarrow]

💀

[keen abyss]

No

[proper yarrow]

Imagine if firefly is the cause of Astra's rise from the dead

[keen abyss]

Second stages only off off nominals situations

They don't fail

[keen abyss]

[vital pasture]

That and the Spaceflight sharer-ride launch (ironically most of the satellites are from a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX after being acquired) would then be probably the only notable achievements out of this 7+ years old company lmao

[leaden dove]

my words ring true

[zinc patio]

Can they ring false please

[leaden dove]

no

sorry :/

[zinc patio]

all your fault

[leaden dove]

me with SARah tomororw 🚶‍♀️🚶‍♀️

[livid garden]

bro whos sarah tho

[zinc patio]

And why are there three of them, and where is Sarah #1

[livid garden]

we dont talk about sarah 1

[leaden dove]

yeah this is a great wuestion

launched in june 2022

[steel jetty]

[ Credit: NXF ]

[leaden dove]

i love how you always give credit for everything

so many people don’t do it enough and it drives me nuts so thanks for compensating lmao

[ripe rapids]

I thought it was launching Saturday the 23rd at 6:00 UTC

But apparently

it didn't

[leaden dove]

wrong day and wrong time

[ripe rapids]

ye

I'm stupid

[wild surge]

Hell yeah
With this dub Astra might just be able to limp its way to Rocket 4

slight exagerration

[uneven ledge]

They have enough time to get the orbit up but the main thing is amount of propellant

If someone wants to do the math here is the ase spec sheet

Also The nebula bus weighs like 250kg

[toxic merlin]

Smh should have went on an electron

[uneven ledge]

💀

[obtuse vortex]

ok, so let’s go with the higher thrust version. That’s .025 N, so .0001 m/s^2. It’s hard to determine in terms of delta v what they’ll have to push through because
a) I don’t know the cross-sectional area of their spacecraft
b) I don’t know the conditions of the atmosphere up there right now
c) the delta v would actually depend on the acceleration
d) this all sounds like very complicated math and I don’t care for it
so let’s just go with the 87 ish m/s they need to circularise. 87/.0001 is 870,000 seconds, and there are 84,600 seconds in a day, so that’s a little over ten days. Very doable I think, if those specs are accurate.

[native summit]

yeah if this is the real thrust and not the one on the nebula page, it seems possible

decay of satellite of similar mass and cross section

takes 4 days to reenter from a 220x220 km orbit , while this one is a 215x525 orbit
it'd take also 4 days to raise perigee to a safe ISS-level one of >300 km

[uneven ledge]

The decay shouldn’t happen for a little bit of time so it would be close but yeah it very doable if there enough fuel

[obtuse vortex]

With an ion thruster? you bet there’s gonna be enough fuel, you really shouldn’t put those on spacecraft for anything less than, like, a kilometre per second

[uneven ledge]

True

[royal spindle]

Hey y'all, dropping in from an invite from @uneven ledge, I'm a low thrust trajectory design engineer

[obtuse vortex]

oh yo someone who actually knows what they’re talking about?

I think you might be the first one in this server

please ignore everything I have said on this topic thank you

[royal spindle]

Offering up my opinion here, this satellite should able to recover into a stable orbit without too much trouble, provided they have enough propellant on-board.

I don't know what the CONOPS of the vehicle was planned to be, but the only issue I could see would be if they had planned to use these thrusters purely in an orbit maintenance capacity and not as a primary propulsion system

Trying to estimate time to raise perigee out of a "danger zone" will be a little tough. You really only have half of each rev available to raise perigee, you can't thrust when you're in shadow (solar electric propulsion and all), so it's hard to say. I think 10 days is a conservative estimate

[uneven ledge]

Ase can realistically be used as anything

[royal spindle]

Right, the thruster doesn't care how you use it. But if you're only planning to do OMM's you might not have a lot of prop onboard

[uneven ledge]

Forgot to think about prop again

[obtuse vortex]

what might be the rationale for using electric propulsion when the Δv required is low, btw?

[leaden dove]

so as far as the ability to recover goes, is it at all maybe possible?

[royal spindle]

The most widespread use of EP is still as an orbit maintenance/station keeping system. It lets you carry less prop than you'd have to with a chemical system

[leaden dove]

how much prop would they need

[dusky plinth]

“Well it created a bunch of jobs” - someone at NASA

[royal spindle]

100% possible. My personal opinion is that they'll recover relatively easily. Whether or not they'll be able to accomplish their original mission is a different question

[royal spindle]

I could open my trajectory software and see but I'm sitting on my couch and very lazy

[dusky plinth]

Oh hi scott

[leaden dove]

that’s so fair

[obtuse vortex]

I was under the impression the power systems and more solid thruster hardware required for that would eclipse the mass savings from specific impulse for low Δv missions. That’s just something I made up, isn’t it?

[leaden dove]

the primary mission is just the antenna deployment iirc

as long a 215km perigee isn’t gonna cook them too fast

[zinc patio]

Well, that and, y'know, testing the antenna for a while

[leaden dove]

pffffff

[royal spindle]

Sounds like you made it up lol

[eager cloud]

Because this was a demonstration mission, I feel like it could've been included to also get EP more flight heritage (along with the prop considerations)

[uneven ledge]

There’s now 13 ase’s in orbit

[dusky plinth]

The EP already have enough flight heritage

[uneven ledge]

Lucky number 13 lol

[obtuse vortex]

yay! Well I’ll try to remember from now on that those work better for some less ambitious missions too, thanks.

[dusky plinth]

I don’t think terran orbital cares

[zinc patio]

If they didn't plan on doing maneuvers, well, it's a LEO sat, they could've just done the usual mix of reaction wheels/magnetorquers/solar panel solar sail thingy, whatever you call that, clearly they have a need of propulsion. So if they burn the vast majority of their prop to reach a more stable orbit... That's a yikes

[royal spindle]

EP is very proven. Thanks to Starlink, we now have more EP systems on-orbit than chemical systems

[eager cloud]

very true I forget starlink uses electric often

[uneven ledge]

It comes down to do they want that sat in a stable orbit

Or lose that money

[zinc patio]

Is it known how many thrusters are on each sat? Don't think I've seen numbers there

[royal spindle]

I would guess 1

[zinc patio]

ah yeah durr

[royal spindle]

You only need 1 for what Starlink does with them and we know spacex wouldn't waste money on redundancy on Starlink

[leaden dove]

imagine if FF posts a tweet that’s like hey lol sorry guyz we did it!!

[vital pasture]

The ony major failure for Starlink to get their electric thrusters doing their jobs is the solar-storm hitting Group 4-7, that was in a <250 km deployment orbit with Starlink sats being even draggier by their shape, and still more than 10 survived

[eager cloud]

impressive

[royal spindle]

Remind me in the morning, I'll build a recovery trajectory with the numbers that have been posted here and see what the prop/dv requirements are

[dusky plinth]

Does it burn up by tmr morning?

[royal spindle]

No

Drag at perigee will erode apogee

So they need apogee to come all the way down from >500km

[obtuse vortex]

I wonder if starlink makes up the majority of active satellites yet

unrelated to this though, that should go in a different thread

[leaden dove]

so why is the eccentricity increasing

[bleak sentinel]

semimajor axis is also rising which suggests theyve started burning to raise the apoapsis

[uneven ledge]

Let’s go

[leaden dove]

shouldnt eccentricity be decreasing?

[bleak sentinel]

if theyre burning at apoapsis yes but ig theyre not there and doing it anyway

[leaden dove]

gotcha

are we ever gonna hear from FF lmao

[bleak sentinel]

my wild uneducated guess is that theyre trying to make the most of the sunlight to get some dv in or they have fuel to spare

[bleak sentinel]

the sat will circularize in 2 weeks and then theyll announce 💀

[uneven ledge]

Would this be the first time an ep thrusters has saved a mission that didn’t reach its right orbit

[royal spindle]

No

[uneven ledge]

Well womp womp but still big bragging rights for astra ig

[leaden dove]

if it’s not ASE i’m gonna laugh my keester off

[uneven ledge]

They have a contract with them so it’s probably ase

I could confirm it really quick

[royal spindle]

If I had to guess they're thrusting whenever they're in sunlight, but those shadows are an appreciable portion of the orbit. That coast while in shadow is causing apogee to raise disproportionately quickly at the moment

Also re: saving an anomalous insertion, Lockheed and Aerojet saved a GTO to GEO mission on EP when the solid perigee raise motor failed

Sorry, it was actually a liquid motor that failed
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-214

This was in 2010

[bleak sentinel]

💀💀💀💀

[toxic merlin]

Smh if the sat is able to recover and achieve its mission objectives it should be a full success

[eager cloud]

firefly still did an oopies tho

[leaden dove]

ehhhhhhh

i guess we count it for atlas?

[uneven ledge]

Astra gets that credit then

[leaden dove]

still def a partial vehicle failure though

[eager cloud]

all this prop would've been used for station-keeping, hence degrading the mission's eventual capabilities

[uneven ledge]

Does Lockheed want a mission or not that’s there options

They chose they want the mission

[eager cloud]

I would too

[dusky plinth]

its a partial failure

[toxic merlin]

Exactly, if ULA can get away with it, firefly should too

[uneven ledge]

Imagine if this is the ase I saw hotfire

That would be so funny

[eager cloud]

howd you find this page?

[obtuse vortex]

Do they get hot

[uneven ledge]

Idk it was in a big vacuum chamber

But it was beautiful

[bleak sentinel]

dont get sussyelon in on this 💀

the mission is still going to be a success but i feel the tag should reflect what the lv did more than anything else

which atlas launch are yall referring to just out of curiosity

[leaden dove]

half accidentally on celestrak

2023-202A international designator

[eager cloud]

yep just found it by searching "58616"

[keen abyss]

iirc this happened on an ariane 4 rocket, iirc a hankerchif was left to clog in a coolant line on one of the engines, when the lit the engines ofc no collant running through one of the engines so it shutdonw a few second into flight, like 4 seconds off the pad, and actully went a lil above the launch tower, countieud to flight but didnt make it throuhg first stage burn

i think scott manley did a vdei on that?

[eager cloud]

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/graph-orbit-data.php?CATNR=58616

[native summit]

Thanks a lot for your insights btw

[leaden dove]

@zinc patio

really pretty plume interaction

[zinc patio]

Looks like both objects are doing roughly the same thing

[bleak sentinel]

hmm but b's semimajor axis is dropping

as eccentricity rises ??

i think diff in semimajor change rates is def evidence of burn but hmmm

[eager cloud]

the eccentricity is only changing by .0015 b/w the last two readings

and SMA by 200m

I feel that could just be disregarded as error? I don't know how accurate these observations are

[zinc patio]

I mean, they're very different objects in size mass and shape in the same very low perigee orbit

I wouldn't really expect them to behave the same

[vital pasture]

https://fxtwitter.com/planet4589/status/1738393796495184175?s=20

[eager cloud]

yep my suspicions have been confirmed :(

[vital pasture]

In other news Firefly's web page server is down

[eager cloud]

[uneven ledge]

Orbit police says reentry in a month

[uneven ledge]

https://vxtwitter.com/planet4589/status/1738395780690375036?s=46&t=nUaAWRT7PeAayLu1zYeeJg

[zinc patio]

https://fxtwitter.com/planet4589/status/1738395322483695978

[uneven ledge]

lol

[zinc patio]

I think it is worth pointing out that my hidethepaincostas emoji has jumped about 10 spots forward in my recently used today alone

Having to use it way too much

[royal spindle]

Lol I'll put together a model in the morning

[uneven ledge]

Alright I just replied to that so you can find it easier if you need that for the model

[royal spindle]

A month is an insane amount of time

Based on a 250 kg satellite and a 0.025N thruster, they should be able to do about 8.6 m/s per 24 hours of thrusting

[leaden dove]

how many m/s is lost due to drag

[royal spindle]

🤷 you'd need to know cross sectional area for that

[uneven ledge]

So 11 days to get it to 500kmx500km orbit pending fuel levels

Less to get to a stable enough orbit

[royal spindle]

Right, I'd be pretty surprised if they can't get this thing into a stable orbit

[uneven ledge]

Dimensions without Solar Panels
82cm x 58cm x 39cm

The solar panels are pretty big so idk

[royal spindle]

Arrays are definitely the biggest driver of drag

[uneven ledge]

It’s not ase

[dusky plinth]

F

[eager cloud]

Could you extrapolate the solar panel size from these images? Or would that size vary based on each mission? https://terranorbital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/0073_TO_NEBULA_BUS-FLYER_110923_1135.pdf

[uneven ledge]

Since it’s not ase I have no idea who the ep supplier is.

[dusky plinth]

exoterra?

[vital pasture]

https://fxtwitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1738435542570705110?s=20

Firefly’s Alpha FLTA004 launch had a successful liftoff and progressed seamlessly through each stage of flight, including stage 1 main engine cutoff (MECO), stage separation, stage two ignition, fairing separation, and second stage engine cutoff (SECO) 1. Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit. However, communication to the spacecraft has been established and mission operations are now underway.

Firefly recognizes all that went into preparation of the payload and would like to thank Lockheed Martin for their continued support. In line with our core principals as a company, we will rapidly and continuously innovate to find a solution and ensure complete resolution of any anomaly we see during flight. We will work with our customer and government partners to investigate the stage 2 performance and determine the root cause. As more information is available, we will be providing updates here.

[zinc patio]

[toxic merlin]

Alpha’s scheduled stage two engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit.
Might be reading to much into it, but it sounds like the second stage was at least able to relight but then something happened along the way

[vital pasture]

Indeed
The 2nd burn is 10 seconds long, I suspect the transfer orbit has a negative perigee

Probably the engine shutdown midway

[somber juniper]

Firefly try to relight a second stage challenge (impossible)

[livid garden]

second stage succeed challenge (demonic difficulty)

[royal spindle]

Ok folks I have built a quick model of FLTA004's potential recovery.

I assumed the ACE performance parameters (0.025N thrust at 1400s), I know that's not what is on board but it's likely representative enough to be fine.

I entered the initial orbital state of 522x216km at 140 degrees inclination as reported yesterday by USSF

I also used a cross sectional area of 0.5 m^2 for drag calculations. After looking at a picture of the bus, the solar arrays will be flying edge on into the atmosphere and so should contribute very little drag.

I looked at a very simple steering model, thrusting tangential to the flight path for 10 days and for 30 days

After 10 days the vehicle will have used 1.14 kg of propellant to boost its orbit to 650x315km. It will have been in sunlight for 72.5% of this time

After 30 days it will have boosted it's orbit to 855x504 km, using 3.15kg of propellant

The vehicle would be in sunlight for 66.7% of this 30 day span

In both pictures above, red is the recovery period and blue is the final orbit

Ground tracks are so pretty

That's 62 m/s spent in 10 days
174 m/s spent in 30 days

[native summit]

Thanks so much

[royal spindle]

TLDR, they should be able to recover to a stable orbit relatively quickly

[leaden dove]

okay but

second stages never fail…?

[leaden dove]

so astra has no involvement here?

[leaden dove]

woah that’s so awesome

[royal spindle]

No clue!

Someone said here yesterday that the spacecraft wasn't carrying Astra thrusters

[leaden dove]

gotcha

[uneven ledge]

An Astra employee told me to look at the numbers again and I completely forgot to match up the specific impulse and that is completely different so my bad. But thanks for doing that so to show that ase could save a mission like this if it fails to reach its correct orbit.

[keen abyss]

Most underrated comment

[brave moat]

I really like Alpha/Firefly but this for investors is not attractive, I just hope Firefly has time/money to improve these results.

[somber juniper]

To be fair that's not an awful record

But you are right

Cue Miranda

[brave moat]

Sure, but we also know how the market moves today and a track record like that, or Astra's, is not good.

Even for some, Rocket Lab's track record is bad because of its 4 failures in 41 orbital launches.

[somber juniper]

The problem for investors is that partial failure probably reads to them as failure

I hope they get the money to give it a few tries

They've done better than spacex did tbf

[pastel carbon]

They have a better starting track record than any other Western newspace company other than Rocket Lab.

[royal spindle]

An ESA hall effect thruster expert I know told me that they likely have a significantly different EP system onboard that is >25 mN total output

[pastel carbon]

SpaceX fully failed on their first 3 launches, so did Astra, and even ABL (which has only launched once) experienced a worse failure on their first launch than Firefly did on theirs

[royal spindle]

In which case it'll be easier to recover than I assumed

[leaden dove]

worst comes to worse they become Firefly: A Northrup Grumman Space Company

[leaden dove]

that’s awesome

[brave moat]

Yes, that's the advantage it has the backing of NG and NASA for the ISS and CLPS missions.

[leaden dove]

yeah

[long flame]

I'm not worried about them as a company, they'll be aight

[royal spindle]

Critically, I can rest happy having proven Jonathan McDowell wrong

The real question is on the operations side. EP thrusters don't just turn on immediately, you need to slowly commission these things and burn them in.

On top of that, ground teams need time to assess the health of the vehicle, plan a recovery trajectory, validate that the vehicle can fly that, and then upload commands to the spacecraft

They should have more than enough time to get to a stable orbit, but don't be surprised if you don't see real movement for the next few days

[native summit]

J. McDowell is often wrong tbh, but that's also because he speculates a lot and rarely says that he is certain

he's good at making quick guesses from his vast experience that are more often closer to the truth than not

[sly shard]

He also never says he knows something for a fact, he admits he can be wrong, a lot of people can’t do that

[zinc patio]

I mean they just raised $300M no problem, they'll be fine

[zinc patio]

what, you think I'm gonna deny this fucking sucks lol

it does

(002 still should be full success though)

[somber juniper]

I was joking lol

[royal spindle]

Yeah I guess let me be clear that I like McDowell and I think he's a really good example of what a technical communicator should look like

[leaden dove]

what was the problem again

[jovial valley]

Wait huh

Skill issue lmao

[livid garden]

here we go again with the "it's not a partial failure" argument

[upper reef]

photos from the launch here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/fireflyspace/

[sly shard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1zSyLlHOs8

[zinc patio]

lmao I can tell this isn't even worth clicking

are they a salty RL investor or something

[wild surge]

botched mission
spacecraft can still effectively complete its mission

[pastel carbon]

in a series of failures
previous mission succeeded

[sly shard]

Hes actually usually a pretty good reporter, but he obviously has some sort of bias here

[obtuse vortex]

I’m a salty rl investor but that’s because I’m bad with money and they haven’t even prototyped a pump for Archimedes, not cause of firefly

[native summit]

sadge

[bleak sentinel]

🙏🙏🙏hoping this is what’s going on

[royal spindle]

SMA dropping 6 km isn't anything to fret

Functional system checks can take days before a satellite is fully commissioned

[royal spindle]

Anyone checked in on our little friend today?

[bleak sentinel]

still slipping unfortunately

although last measurement was like last night

somewhere around 10 km sma drop

[royal spindle]

So they're not thrusting at all

[bleak sentinel]

apparently not

[royal spindle]

I wonder what the OD schedule is for them

[bleak sentinel]

@royal spindle !!!!

were so back

upper stage seemed to start seriously dropping around the same time hmm

[royal spindle]

Hmm the upper stage dropping is sus

Maybe they're opening up gas bottles?

[native summit]

McDowell thinks the Space force just swapped the identity of the two objects

[royal spindle]

That would make sense too

[bleak sentinel]

wait the numbers for sma do roughly line up 💀

[bleak sentinel]

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/graph-orbit-data.php?CATNR=58616 yeah they switched back m

the slide continues

[grave mirage]

I'm running some numbers, anyone know how (generally) much fuel Lockheed Martin has left?

[royal spindle]

My guess is they have almost all of their propellant onboard still. Nothing from the state element history indicates to me that they've been firing the Hall Effect Thruster at all

[grave mirage]

Based on some rough estimates from me and few other engineer buddies, we reckon odds are 50/50 that LM can push the payload into a recoverable orbit

[violet prawn]

Of course

It either can or it can't

50/50

[royal spindle]

#1184999307280121856 message

[grave mirage]

Might be more optimistic if they haven't fired the hall thrusters yet

Data indicates they are starting to run low on time to bring the orbit up

They may have consolidated their losses and just are trying to finish the primary objective as fast as possible at this point