#Meteorology
1 messages Β· Page 12 of 1
ππππ
AL, 13, 2024101000, , BEST, 0, 223N, 490W, 90, 972, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 1014, 130, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
the little storm that could
wonder if this could make a run for c4
mayhaps
That.livechat looks so alien to me, since live stream of natural disasters like typhoons, the live chat gets filled with catholic prayers
yesterday
friend almost got hit
and I stayed awake to help so there goes my sleep sched
(his power is still out rn from milton)
π₯Ά
πΏπΏπΏ
tropics is dead so random tornado fact:
we have not had an ef5 tornado since 2013 because of how the damage indicators work, and we only got an ef4+ on mayfield because the "well built" structural integrity were deemed to not be adequate enough to count as one
I will now post tornado facts semi regularly if nothing interesting is happening in the tropics
damn.
random tornado fact #2: the xenia ohio f5 in 1974 was initially given a f6 by tetsuya fujita before he deemed it unreasonable and reduced the scaling to just f0-f5 as we know today
random tornado fact #3: Florida actually sees more tornadoes on average per year than some tornado alley states like Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri despite not even being in either of the tornado alleys
random tornado fact #4: the year on record for the most violent tornadoes is 1974 with 7 f5s, 29 f4s, and 93 f3s
hey so
natl woke up
ts nadine formed and is making landfall
hu oscar formed...yes i said hurricane
this was officially like 30/30 less than 24 hours ago
@normal frost @tribal arch
this is indeed a hurricane
it is indeed that small.
it indeed has a 3 mile wide eye
what the fuck its tiny
damn another caribbean hurricane
marco????
its got personally
...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
also lets go i dont have to do tornado facts this lil guy appeared
rofl
whats the windfield size
wanna see something funny
@normal frost
also in case that isnt enough entertainment
track prior
what on gods name
what the hell??
SAR data show Oscar may have been a category 3 hurricane at Cuban landfall.
Before some start saying SAR is not accurate, it was dead on this morning when recon found a 70 kt hurricane https://t.co/f7uln1DxSF
interesting.
theres a funny happening rn but i wanna do one regardless
random tornado fact #5: the majority of the tornadoes that form are actually anticyclonic, which means they spin clockwise instead of counterclockwise (in the northern hemisphere)
(extra) most "twin tornadoes" have one spinning clockwise and one counterclockwise OR one main tornado and with satelite vortecies, but not to say strong conventional twin tornadoes couldn't happen, most recent significant twin tornadoes was the Pilger Nebraska EF4s in 2014
if it is one yeah
hope nhc goes c2 at least for tcr
cuz thats def not a mid range c1
anyways it got shredded by cuba
its average
@atomic flint bro im getting fucked by the wind i visayas β οΈ
π
woa
π€¨
bouta be wejj
woah
THE FABLED 135 KT
@normal frost @tribal arch
Jesus
yooo
yea it peaked at 135
WEJJJJ
bro theres a chance it'll do a u turn πππ
yea trami,,,
pretty sure it rained all day here
pabugso bugso here
idk the English
im too sleepy bc of my anti allergies
EP, 12, 2024102418, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1210W, 140, 926, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 1009, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032,
hey fuckers @normal frost @tribal arch
pog?
wao
YO
bored af so
random tornado fact #6: the record for the fastest wind speeds on record anywhere on earth is the Bridge Creek-Moore Oklahoma F5 in 1999, doppler radar recorded speeds as high as 321mph (or 517 kmh)
zamn
wtf

das baaad
smol storm but it dump a metric ton of cloud inland
some places record like 400+mm rain in a day
bro...
i used to cycle to that weather station
woah
β οΈ
yikes.
are you ok
its massive
holy fuck
yeah a very rare oct landfall
if it did it on nov it'd be even rarer (not seen since the 50s?) but 31 seems to be set
thats 2/3 the size of ph π
what the wejj
look at that banding
hello winnie
@normal frost @tribal arch @ancient quarry
wonder what this peaked at tho
jtwc went 130 for peak and jma/pagasa had 100kts koba (which is like 125 or 130kts)
ok but fr
thats like
a 3 degrees latitude eye if it succeeds...
that looks ridiculous lol
well this is just great my friend lives at the literal middle point of the prediction cone
LMAO
random tornado fact #7: the deadliest tornado ever recorded didn't happen in neither america nor europe, but in fact in bangladesh in 1989, due to bangladesh not having an established weather bureau in 1989 the tornado was not warned which in turn killed a total of an estimated 1300 people and injuring more than 12000 more
jesus
AL, 17, 2024110206, , BEST, 0, 403N, 347W, 45, 986, SS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 180, 90, 1002, 200, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PATTY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037, TRANSITIONED, alC62024 to al172024,
erm
newly designated 24w
jma went from having nothing on it to an immediate gw LOL
same with pagasa
dead alr
damn.
...PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...37.7N 20.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
wtf@normal frost
NEVER DOUBTED
well then @normal frost @tribal arch
also patty died
btw jma still holds CI 2.5 π
πΏπΏ
24W YINXING 241104 1200 14.3N 130.1E WPAC 65 987

not another one
i forgot to post it here because i forgot this exists
also here is today's satellite imagery of typhoon yinxing
oof
also hbd
Β―_(γ)_/Β―
very slow moving
wtf
hurricane rafael
11th hurricane in natl this year

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
c2 rafael
now waiting on yinxing
...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
@normal frost @tribal arch
major wtf
2 majors active at the same time globally
havent seen that in a while
holy fuck that was fast
oooh
12z got overriden for yinxing
24W YINXING 241106 1200 18.1N 124.0E WPAC 110 951
prolly c4 for 18z
if that aint c4 idk what is
lmao
thing is moving like a fkin snail
bro ππππ
bro really just casually pulling a T7.0 out of nowhere
i remember looking like 6 hours before that and thinking it alr peaked cuz appearance started degrading
then when i look back i see This Shit
winds are a bit strong here peeps
stay safe
stay safe
π
so uh
92w (pagasa: nika)
93w (now 25w)
94w
also yinxing (former marce) back to major
@normal frost @tribal arch
yeah...
oh boy
thats certainly a screenshot of all time
nor is it a TD jma
thats a whole ass TS bro
yeah....
thats alot πΏπΏπΏπΏ
gonna be the fourth time
i can't live a great life with typhoons that batter my place every week
π
November.
goes right to my place
as expected

@normal frost @atomic flint @tribal arch
stay safe man...
π
dude this ain't even necessary, i'm not even close to the coast
@atomic flint @normal frost @tribal arch oh well
some pre-landfall footage of toraji
π₯Άπ₯Άπ₯Ά
eerie
stay safe brother
π
christ
if there's any silver lining
at least it didn't blow up like noru/karding
but
yea,,,,,
wtf this basin isn't dead yet
β οΈβ οΈβ οΈβ οΈβ οΈβ οΈ
fuck
me when the jma
cooked
round 3...
π
yeah that one is brewing too
2009?
????
oh shit nvm
27W USAGI 241113 1200 16.2N 125.3E WPAC 105 960
wait
im dumb
LMAO
yeah uh
@normal frost @random flower
fuck.
ah shit here we go again
oh boy we got rain
β οΈ
3rd times the charm
not again
also to the nortwest is tropical storm toraji basically dead alr
threatening hong kong
fucking hell
lucky enough to have minimal impact here
...
24Β°C...
what the fuck
made landfall a few hours ago in catanduanes
this is also cooking in the background
ots swio wejj
holy the swirl
ππππππ
fucked up
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.```
105 kts 10-min
impressive for an early season major
The Philippines have now been hit by four typhoons in the span of just 10 days.
Can't say I recall ever seeing this before. https://t.co/d57u6bCEYX
they just hate luzon this year i guess???

o7
veering quite close to rodrigues tho
might not be a fish storm as i initially thought
oh dear

o7

π€
lets goooo
entertainment
well until it hits something
it is looking really good though which is concerning
meteorology mfs when theres a storm: π© | π
we're alive again!!!!
(is that a good thing or a bad thing)
fair
jesus fuck
it is wejjing tf out
that is kinda cursed though it looked basically c4 but it's not even major
04S CHIDO 241211 1800 10.4S 56.7E SHEM 120 945
skipped a category
lolllll
ok what
??????
This
it exploded to That
o h
cooked
ion'd
still churning btw
weakened a good deal tho
mfr does expect restrengthening tho
before landfall
yikes
not again
gods no
if it gets c5 thatd be a record
i dont think theres ever a c5 RI in mozambique channel lol
or not that im aware of
direct hit at Mayotte
BREAKING: Close to 1,000 people may have been killed after Cyclone Chido hit the French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, the island's top official has said.
π Read more
https://t.co/xzyAr57kQf
in december??
mhm
kek
yeah not the first not the last
still isnt named by FMS btw
yeaaaaa
in other news a 40 kt tropical storm got completely ignored by the BoM
...well they noticed the gale passes but didnt name it
anyway here's dikeledi now
and here's an SPAC TC jumpscare
named Pita
thank god it didnt explode at least
what the fuck
yea it wouldve blown up if it didnt touch land
π£οΈ
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20250116/0000Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: DIKELEDI
ADVISORY NR: 2025/29
OBS PSN: 16/0000Z S2715 E04319
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: SSE 20KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 948HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 16/0600Z S2843 E04453
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 16/1200Z S3007 E04651
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 16/1800Z S3121 E04909
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 17/0000Z S3221 E05142
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20250116/0600Z=
another ITC
07S DIKELEDI 250116 0000 27.5S 43.3E SHEM 100 951
such a weird place to find an ITC man
btw this is ITC #3
meanwhile both aus and spac have one named slop each
jesus christ
structure seems fine rn although
its prob gonna poof in like 12hr lol
yea its kinda yknow
approaching 30S
and at ~27c waters
quite notable tho
CURRENTLY AT A LATITUDE OF 28.8S, DIKELEDI BECOMES THE MOST SOUTHERLY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR DATABASE, ECLIPSING ANGREEK'S RECORD
FROM LAST SEASON.
πππ
mfr for 12z has dikeledi as a major south of 30S
likely its last major point tbh
considering how it looks now
o7
time for the next storm
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20250119/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: SEAN
ADVISORY NR: 2025/3
OBS PSN: 19/1200Z S2006 E11418
CB: WI 120NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: WSW 09KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 976HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 19/1800 S2030 E11324
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 20/0000 S2112 E11224
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 20/0600 S2154 E11130
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 20/1200 S2242 E11030
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20250119/1900Z```
no way aus storm
damn ok
was a good run
what the fuck
why is it alive
15U got named vince
11S still exists and might get named soon (swio)
05F (15P) exists
92P (17U) exists
taliah is eating shit
@normal frost @tribal arch yea thats it
im so brainrot i thought u said taishi
bro...
TS Faida
neat
π€¨
well then vince just exploded
@normal frost @tribal arch
bom went from 50 kts to 75 kts (both 10 min)
in 6 hours
YO
god that looks good
13S VINCE 250206 1200 19.5S 81.7E SHEM 115 944
jesus
holy
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
B. 06/1430Z
C. 19.54S
D. 81.31E
E. TWO/MET9
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0937Z 19.42S 81.97E GPMI
06/1009Z 19.45S 81.77E SSMS
RAE```
is this actually headed for c5 wtf
shlong maneuver
damn the tail
thats a pretty eye actually
vince my goat
its about to c5 even
my guess is 145 peak
nah
the past couple of forecasts/models have it stay at c5 for at least 12 hours
so it wont be a brief one
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 77.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT```
Guess What.
first VITC of the season (chido got robbed)
@normal frost @tribal arch
its so over...
i blame george
yer a bastard
it was a good run
models want it to get a jet interaction AND to stall over goddamn boiling waters
if that plays out then
Jesus
tho rn its south of the cone apparently
so who knows could also just landfall
LOL

oh no
idts
yea its basically wrapped thats fucked
so fast too
yeah...
might actually be major at lf
or worse...
really the only thing that will put the breaks on this is time
I wouldn't doubt this also
it's slowing down so it def will have a bit of time to inhale water
yeah bom already forecasts c4 aus
oh before i forget
taliah is in swio and was upgraded to tropical cyclone
cook
well boys
@normal frost @tribal arch
this is headed to port hedland btw
a town of 15k people
what the fuck
beuh
unfortunately is
its trying to clear.
so like
wonder what ill wake up to
at 0z
17S ZELIA 250213 0000 19.1S 118.2E SHEM 85 964
LMAOOOOOOOOOO
@normal frost
fuck off that's not 85 knots
17S ZELIA 250213 0000 19.1S 118.2E SHEM 120 940
better
honestly thats prolly alr c5 tho
holy shit 155kts in cone
@normal frost @tribal arch
nah like THAT high of a windspeed in aus is demented
dw
its ewrcing
and also getting sheared somewhat tho eh
MY ASS IS NOT CALLING THAT GULF OF AMERICA
made landfall west of port hedland btw

taliah is STILL alive
is dying tho

what the fuck
form doesnt look that good but like from satellite it still looks good lol
TS alfred
TS rae
also another aus storm should be named soon
@normal frost @tribal arch
tbh spac prolly shouldve had more storms
in fact there's an unnamed one rn thats dying
aaaand
@normal frost
TS bianca
that was fast
told ya
2 areas of high chance in the SWIO
as well as potentially another spac storm
also unnamed spac ts still alive lol
yeah this is a tc outbreak goddamn
all 3 named storms r developing nicely
that looks kinda funny
really nice ngl
woa
first spac wejj since lola inbound???
its kinda moving fast though
maybe
pretty nice conditions for it for a while
so true
@normal frost @tribal arch oh btw dont forget about these guys
and also 96P
also bianca is now an aus c3

95s looks to become one of those funny tracks
if the streams alllow it then it can prob just do a full loop into mozambique
gfs's had 96p predicted to be major the past 2 models now
which is interesting to say the least
although barely a major but still a major's a major lol
yea its definitely a storm to watch
insane
we now have TS Seru from spac
joever
holy activity
COOKIN
π€¨
winds seem a bit strong lole
uh
@normal frost @tribal arch
that is
uncomfortably close to brisbane
wait i am dumb
LMAO
LMAO
I was like
wtf do you mean brisbane thats madagascar


yea this is
not a good situation
reminder that la reunion is home to almost 1m people
alfred rn is Uh
suffer
demons are coming
holy fuck
yea thats quite fast
beeg eye
can i just say @normal frost
we've had 9 majors for swio and aus combined
for 2024-25 season
thats...actually insane?
yea spac hasnt made one yet
well spac doesnt even have an official hurricane because for some reason rae peaked at 60kts according to fms???? even though it was likely c2 at peak (and jtwc does have c2)???????
southern hemisphere in general has been cooking lol

