#Meteorology

1 messages · Page 9 of 1

normal frost
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classic jtwc trollface

normal frost
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holy mother of god

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that looks crazy

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c5?

atomic flint
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125 kts seems to be the consensus?

normal frost
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huh

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that form is super good though

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such a radarcane LOL

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that's the best looking one on radar in a long while

atomic flint
#

radar on par with a good chunk of c5s

atomic flint
#

oh yeah they lowballed 12z @normal frost

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105 or 110 kts i forgor anyway irrelevant

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18z was 105 tho

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and yeah its joever storm is going ett

normal frost
atomic flint
#

06S ANGGREK 240130 0600 29.1S 72.8E SHEM 100 957
06S ANGGREK 240130 0000 28.0S 71.7E SHEM 105 952
06S ANGGREK 240129 1800 26.4S 70.9E SHEM 110 950
06S ANGGREK 240129 1200 25.1S 70.8E SHEM 120 960
06S ANGGREK 240129 0600 23.8S 71.1E SHEM 115 948
06S ANGGREK 240129 0000 22.7S 71.9E SHEM 115 954

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i gotta say tho

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120 960...

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?

atomic flint
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@normal frost

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wanna talk about how a storm just survived being in australia?

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and i mean in the literal sense because

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07P KIRRILY 240201 1800 17.3S 139.5E SHEM 40 992

normal frost
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wait HUH

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it LIVED?

tribal arch
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WTF

normal frost
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wtf its in good form too

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thats fucked

normal frost
#

that looks wild

atomic flint
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not like it'd get a name tho (it'll just retain its old one)

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but yeah it is

normal frost
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BoM be like "oh it hit land i guess its dead"

atomic flint
normal frost
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frfr

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"oh its dead"
(it wasnt)

atomic flint
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"very low chance"

normal frost
#

wtf

normal frost
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wtf

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gg

atomic flint
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@normal frost ?????????

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last minute named

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wasnt expected to get named either cuz not 3/4 gales

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checked earlier and gale radius went down too so this is a very pleasant surprise

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also djoungou named

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yes thats actually its name

normal frost
#

wtf

normal frost
#

what a shrimp

normal frost
#

WTF FEBRUARY WEJJ

normal frost
#

aw

normal frost
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fa t

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he chonker

atomic flint
#

fr

normal frost
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I mean it's a strong c4 at the very least

atomic flint
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yeah

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man

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if only it had more time

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what jet interaction does to a mfer

normal frost
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🫡

normal frost
#

wtf it DIED

normal frost
#

wtf

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imagine it loops

tribal arch
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imagine

normal frost
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slopfest

normal frost
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what the fuck

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how many storms are walking through australia already LOL

atomic flint
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its pretty common atp

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the question is how many actually make it out and reform

normal frost
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thats what i mean

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let it cook

atomic flint
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too bad its alr named tho

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wouldve been nice to see another named AUS storm

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the world if aus is actually active

normal frost
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ho

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recovery?

atomic flint
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seems like it

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mfr did go 50 kts 10-min

normal frost
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radarcane SuiMochiStare

atomic flint
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@normal frost finally something happened

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took almost one fucking month

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don't like how snore everything has been recently zzz

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bet this year is gonna be ultra sleeper considering we'll prolly be in la nina again

tribal arch
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Hopefully its a sleeper here in ph 🙂

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I dont want a super typhoon just ripping my a open

atomic flint
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even tho la nina means less storms

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usually it also means that more storms will track towards the philippines (and onwards to vietnam)

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whereas el nino has more storms but also more of them recurving towards japan or just below it

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💀

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at least climatology wise

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a good example of that would be 2020 with its train of storms hitting the PH

normal frost
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what the fuck

atomic flint
normal frost
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goat

atomic flint
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17S FILIPO 240311 1800 20.6S 35.8E SHEM 60 993

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mfr also went severe tropical storm

normal frost
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i thought that said filipino

atomic flint
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bro

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💀

tribal arch
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☠️

normal frost
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what is this carpentaria magic

atomic flint
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tfw

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slop 18S was forecasted to become a strong storm

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and that never materialized

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meanwhile here's 19P(or is it S?) coming out of nowhere and now overperforming lmfao

tribal arch
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Wait where is this?

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I'm dum

normal frost
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goat uploaded

normal frost
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northern australia

normal frost
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what a shrimp

atomic flint
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ikr

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jtwc went 65 kts

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bom has 55 kts 10min

normal frost
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this upper part though is kinda...

atomic flint
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banding?

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meanwhile this ultra slop exists

normal frost
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could be?

atomic flint
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wonder if it'll still be able to get a name atp

normal frost
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it's pretty close now though so

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if it does make it i think it will just barely

atomic flint
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r u talking abt megan

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if u are, yea id agree

normal frost
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yea i mean megan not that slop

atomic flint
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it'll either peak as a high end c3 aus or low end c4 aus

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cuz it has a day left

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or a bit more than a day

normal frost
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inb4 stall

atomic flint
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surely not

normal frost
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it prob wont

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id be baffled

atomic flint
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watch it do it anyway

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because shem logic

normal frost
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ill check mid level winds n shit

atomic flint
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ight

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ima go sleep now tho

normal frost
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gn

atomic flint
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lemme know what ya find later

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o/

normal frost
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o/

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upper is all over the place lmfao
lower basically 0 wind

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although divergence suggest it'll go normally

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really low shear so it does have that going for it

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mid level shear might slow down the intensification but wont hinder much it seems

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yea i think it will just do what the forecast says

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nothing of note

atomic flint
normal frost
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oh dear

atomic flint
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yeah

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major on the cards???

normal frost
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zamn

normal frost
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woah

normal frost
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@atomic flint challenge

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#thai message

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what season is this

atomic flint
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LMAO

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is it 2019

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random guess

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nvm its def not 2019

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what the fuck i dont have typhoons hitting japan memorized 😭

normal frost
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took them SO long

atomic flint
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also bro popped out an eye alr

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LMAO

normal frost
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IKR

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bro literally has an eye

atomic flint
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2 weeks

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2 fucking weeks

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megan literally formed and died before this got named 😭

normal frost
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this tornado still fascinates me

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idk if I should call the people dumb or appreciate the fact that it's because of them we have so much footage of it

normal frost
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woahhh

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le wrappers

normal frost
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MOM ITS DOING THE THING

atomic flint
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@normal frost

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aus4 in da cone!!!!

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also thats a tiny ass windfield

normal frost
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wao yea thats p compact

normal frost
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???????????????

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what has to be c3-4 now right

atomic flint
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yeah i guess.

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?????????

normal frost
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holy that looks so good

atomic flint
#
TC ADVISORY 
DTG:                 20240322/0000Z
TCAC:                DARWIN
TC:                  NEVILLE
ADVISORY NR:         2024/8
OBS PSN:             22/0000Z S1748 E10236
CB:                  WI 80NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV:                 W 10KT
INTST CHANGE:        INTSF
C:                   958HPA
MAX WIND:            95KT
FCST PSN +6HR:       22/0600 S1754 E10112
FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  100KT
FCST PSN +12HR:      22/1200 S1806 E09948
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18HR:      22/1800 S1824 E09812
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +24HR:      23/0000 S1848 E09636
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 95KT
RMK:                 NIL
NXT MSG:             20240322/0700Z```
#

@normal frost woah

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bom forecasts 100kts 10min peak

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tho

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jtwc is already at 115 kts 1-min

normal frost
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damn it does not wanna give up

atomic flint
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@normal frost

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could be big

normal frost
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what a spot

atomic flint
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could also be slop

#

ikr

normal frost
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wait HUH

atomic flint
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forecast ITC...

normal frost
atomic flint
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in 24 hours

normal frost
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a stall forecast huh

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its prob rn

normal frost
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gonna suck for reunion/maurice

normal frost
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this looks to be a rain boyo

atomic flint
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this was 3 hours ago

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or actually

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7 hours ago

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wait is it 7 or 5 @normal frost

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like

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Dude

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this shit broke the gas pedal

normal frost
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oh naw

atomic flint
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cuz is that

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a Fucking Eye

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LMAO

normal frost
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this fucker i swear

atomic flint
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moment.

hidden sage
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AWA

normal frost
#

?????

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thats fucked

normal frost
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yikes....

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thats looking scary

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its gonna wrap

atomic flint
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yeahhh

atomic flint
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@normal frost bruh

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it made landfall earlier at like 3z or something

normal frost
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wait what

atomic flint
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unexpectedly

normal frost
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ok that was fast

atomic flint
#

yeah

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wasnt expected to make a landfall at all

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major peak got thrown out the window

normal frost
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doomed...

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actually nah prob for the better

atomic flint
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i mean

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it wouldve been better if it followed its original track forecast

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yknow

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literally Not making landfall

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anyway

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peak for MFR was 80kts 10-min

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so about 90 kts

normal frost
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so prob cant be avoided there

atomic flint
#

hhhh

normal frost
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sus

hidden sage
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🤨

normal frost
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having synchronized footage is so interesting

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because I can like

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immerse myself

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and think "what will I do in this situation"

atomic flint
#

damn

normal frost
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woah

normal frost
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are you srs

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thats like the clearest eye

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cmon man

normal frost
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why is rolling fork not ef5 actually

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wtf are you doing nws

atomic flint
#

21S OLGA 240407 0600 14.9S 119.2E SHEM 100 958

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MAJOR

normal frost
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FINALLY

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meteorological agency try not to underrate a storm challenge

normal frost
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the wejj is comin

normal frost
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yea its kinda lopsided

atomic flint
atomic flint
#

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OLGA)

B. 07/0830Z

C. 15.13S

D. 119.25E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS 
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. 
MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   FLEWALLEN```
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@normal frost how do you turn a DT6.5 fix into a T5.5?????

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also Holy Mother Of God

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@normal frost

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2nd coming of Herman jfc

atomic flint
normal frost
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THE WEJJ

normal frost
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man

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no more wejj time

atomic flint
#

tho tbf an official c4-equivalent is pretty wejj enough

normal frost
#

shear SuiDespair2

atomic flint
normal frost
#

thats one hell of a forecast

atomic flint
#

or forecast rather

normal frost
#

funny track pls

normal frost
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decent ig

atomic flint
#

@normal frost BoM now has 50kts 10-min

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new cone

normal frost
#

zamn

atomic flint
normal frost
#

lol

atomic flint
#

well

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i guess it overperformed somewhat

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damn dry air,,,

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welp that's the shem season

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outside of the AUS it was pretty Darn Mid

normal frost
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sleeping waiting for the main seasons

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aus season is pretty mid yeah

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which is prob for the better

atomic flint
#

aus did pretty well

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i mean we had jasper, anggrek, neville, olga

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  • megan and kirrily
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6 c1+ out of 8 storms is a neat ratio

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meanwhile spac's strongest storm was literally outside seasonal bounds

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and outside of anggrek and djoungou swio was pretty unremarkable

normal frost
#

my goat uploaded

normal frost
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last flop*

atomic flint
#

true...

atomic flint
#

TROPICS ARE BORING

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RAHHHHHHHHH

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GIVE ME MY FISH CAT 5 ALREADY

normal frost
#

ap

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get in the tornado rabbit hole

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i need more spinny tube enjoyer

atomic flint
#

no 😭😭😭

normal frost
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MAN.

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was worth a shot

atomic flint
#

😇

normal frost
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wanna make predictions before main season starts

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like the activity

atomic flint
normal frost
#

thats

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something alright

atomic flint
#

tanzania though

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tanzania hasnt seen a landfall right?

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jobo was the closest i think

normal frost
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it has but

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its really rare

hidden sage
#

woie

normal frost
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i just got an f13 yt recc today

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after like

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3 months

normal frost
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?

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what is it doing

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wtf

normal frost
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at least it will weaken before landfall

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though this is still really worrying still

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because apparently this is quite a lot of rainfall

atomic flint
#

yeah

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in a region that doesnt really see this kinda thing much

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im not particularly liking how this is turning out ngl

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models had it supposedly weakening by now

normal frost
#

yea the storm is doing weirdly well

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not good at all

atomic flint
#

jobo repeat moment

normal frost
#

yea the tanzania storm killer is here

atomic flint
#

it really shouldnt exist

normal frost
#

thats literally why storms dont hit tanzania

atomic flint
#

why does it exist

normal frost
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i have no idea

atomic flint
#

💀

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also like

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8 degrees south?

normal frost
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no the fact that its heading north

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is stupid

atomic flint
#

Exactly

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then again

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pali exists

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💀

#

also vamei

normal frost
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also did u see the gfs thing

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i think it was like yesterdays model

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indonesia system PepeLa

normal frost
#

LMAO

#

that is incredibly demented

atomic flint
#

yeah rofl

normal frost
#

death

normal frost
#

LOL

atomic flint
#

can we not have double historical storms in may

normal frost
#

that cursed indo storm lmfao

normal frost
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like

#

WHY IS IT STILL THERE

atomic flint
#

yeah,,,,

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surely we dont actually get an indonesia cyclone right

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society when indo gets hit by a cyclone before the ph gets a typhoon

normal frost
#

surely rightttt

normal frost
#

I will never get why hurricanes are categorized by their windspeeds but tornadoes by their damage

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like I'm trying to look at it differently but I simply don't see how making the main tornado measuring system be by damage is better than making it by windspeed

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and speaking of categorization

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hurricane categorization should take the amount of rainfall into account too if the point is to make the public aware of the danger

normal frost
#

literally majority of the damage is from the rainfall not the winds itself

atomic flint
#

its weird

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sshws is a pretty bad scale to base damages off when u think abt it

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cuz so many factors can affect how damaging a storm can be

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storm surge, its speed of movement, whether its in an ewrc or not, etc etc

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thats why weather graphics have to fill in the gap for those parts

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like showing how big a surge can be on a given area

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¯_(ツ)_/¯

normal frost
#

oh?

hidden sage
normal frost
#

the most cursed part about the EF scale is that there was a study comparing F and EF scales

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and EF scale underrates tornadoes an average or almost 1.5 categories

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not flawed btw !!!

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thankfully NWS is working on a new system now

normal frost
#

mega quaking rn

hidden sage
normal frost
#

oh wtf

novel stratus
normal frost
#

yea 2013 el reno had one of the highest recorded wind speeds but only recieved EF3 rating because it barely missed a house

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I've studied enough to stop questioning "why x tornado isn't EF5"

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but I still think rating tornadoes by damage is stupid

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if your main point of having the rating is to warn the public of the danger then why is your rating system based around needing the tornado to destroy something first

trail zealot
#

Because tornados destroying something means it is likely on the path to destroy more things

#

Both need to be taken account to rate a tornado

normal frost
#

you're failing to consider the fact that you need experts to go there to assess the damage first THEN the rating comes out

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and no one is gonna walk in there until it leaves the area already

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by the time people get there it's likely to have traveled into another town

trail zealot
#

There is no live rating based off wind speed?

normal frost
#

effectively currently no

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there's only tornado watches/warnings/emergencies

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but even that's kind of flawed because people won't get a feel of how dangerous it is

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there's more people going out on the streets to take pictures/videos than actually taking shelter

normal frost
#

yea so I just found out the only reason mayfield isn't EF5 is because the DI claims the "swept off it's foundation" the house doesn't have supporting bolts so it doesn't count as a "well constructed home"

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scam

normal frost
#

what the fuck why is it going north thats not supposed to happen

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whats with swio storms this year and going north

atomic flint
normal frost
#

lol

#

it changes its mind

normal frost
#

what the fuck thats so close to equator

normal frost
#

WHY

atomic flint
#

looks to have peaked @normal frost

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but damn 60 kts 10-min is still impressive

#

double c1 equivalent storms in may

normal frost
#

yea its really impressive

atomic flint
#

25S TWENTYFIVE 240519 1800 2.3S 75.2E SHEM 35 1002

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@normal frost

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likely gonna stay unnamed though

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but probably an upgrade in post analysis

normal frost
#

😔

normal frost
#

WTF

#

STOP BEING GOOD

atomic flint
normal frost
#

dude

#

an eye too????

#

this is super fucked

atomic flint
#

WAIT

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NVM THATS OUTDATED

#
Informations à 09UTC
Position : 4.8°S / 42.2°E
Déplacement : Nord-Ouest, 5 kt
Vent maxi moyenné sur 10min : 65 kt
Pression centrale : 983 hPa
Pour plus d'informations, se référer aux bulletins WTIO21 et WTIO31 à venir à 12UTC et suivants.```
normal frost
#

WHAT

normal frost
#

AND ITS FUCKING 3S WHAT IS HAPPENING

atomic flint
#

no dude

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look

#

at where its headed.

normal frost
#

yeah.

atomic flint
#

kenya landfall.

normal frost
#

bro it has a mind of its own

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WHERE ARE YOU GOING

atomic flint
#

has that ever happened?

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like

#

????????

normal frost
#

afaik no

atomic flint
#

bro tanzania landfall was already extraordinarily rare

normal frost
#

this is the first

atomic flint
#

now a kenya one???????

normal frost
#

what is HAPPENING this season LOL

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nah actually NOT EVEN SEASON

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ITS OFF SEASON

atomic flint
#

truly the swio moment

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3 storms in may

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2 of them c1s

normal frost
#

and both of them are northbound storms

atomic flint
#

💀💀💀💀💀

atomic flint
#

@normal frost dear god have mercy

#

trying to get dual vhts.

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oh yeah

#

mfr now officially has 65 kts 10-min

#

jtwc...has 60 kts 1 min 💀

normal frost
#

jtwc...

normal frost
#

saved

atomic flint
#

@normal frost

#

sus

#

93w high chance

normal frost
#

cursed

#

it better not be c5

atomic flint
#

01B

#

01W

#

both 35kts

normal frost
#

o

atomic flint
#

@normal frost no shot jma thinks this is 35 kts

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and are forecasting like

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55 kts peak

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for reference jtwc has that intensity right now and is forecasting 100kts

normal frost
#

what the fuck that looks at least 50kt

atomic flint
#

bro it popped out a

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fucking eye

#

LMAO

normal frost
#

i saw that but i didnt wanna assume yet

#

since it ended there

normal frost
#

yikes

atomic flint
#
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 2401 EWINIAR (2401)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  261500UTC 15.2N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE  NE 08KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  040KT
GUST  060KT
30KT  60NM```
#

@normal frost speechless rn

#

wait wtf

#

smth interesting happened

#

cyclone megan got upgraded to aus c4 by BoM in its TCR

normal frost
#

woa

normal frost
#

thankfully its making landfall only that strength

atomic flint
#

yeah

normal frost
#

LOL

#

he couldnt handle being filipino

atomic flint
#

😔

#

probably peaked as a major

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tho gotta say seeing jma have this peak as a 65 kt typhoon is hilarious

normal frost
#

fr

#

actually i doubt its major but prob close to it

atomic flint
#

maybe even reached 6.0?

normal frost
#

again????

atomic flint
#

thats 25S

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from like

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2 weeks ago

normal frost
#

wait its still alive

#

LOL

atomic flint
#

yea

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💀💀💀💀

rose magnet
#

Happy start of summer from Vorkuta floppaToast

normal frost
#

nice summer bro

atomic flint
#

damn...

wild plume
#

Evil summer

atomic flint
#

there is

#

Nothing Happening

#

!!!!!!!!!!!

#

oh wait

#

tropical storm alberto is a thing

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guess thats something

normal frost
#

sleeper

atomic flint
#

alberto died like yesterday

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this had no effect on the economy of africa

normal frost
#

wake me up when wpac wakes up

atomic flint
#

it is Sleeping

normal frost
#

it has B E G U N

normal frost
#

idont cARE

atomic flint
#

IT IS JUNE.

#

WTF IS AN MDR STORM DOING THERE

normal frost
#

let it cook

atomic flint
#

AND WHY IS IT STARTING TO DO THE THING

normal frost
#

LET IT COOK

#

we need entertainment

atomic flint
#

chat it is cooking

atomic flint
#

epac literally on the latest start in recorded history (still hasnt formed a Damn Thing)

#

wpac is

#

wpac.

normal frost
#

thats what i mean

#

its fucking dead

normal frost
#

ill take it

normal frost
#

wait nah the fuckk is it doing

random flower
#

tracking hurricane beryl?

atomic flint
random flower
#

oh

normal frost
#

poof

atomic flint
#

@normal frost hey what do u think of a major in june

#

3 more advisories left within june so i wonder if it'll make it

normal frost
#

lets gooooo

#

we dont often have early majors

atomic flint
#

yea

normal frost
#

i hope it veers north though

atomic flint
#

whats the strongest june storm anyway

normal frost
#

those islands wont have a good time

atomic flint
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hopefully but also pretty unlikely

atomic flint
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@normal frost BRO

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ITS JUNEEEE

normal frost
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WTF

atomic flint
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good chance it gets first june major since alma

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which was IN 1966

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...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

#

@normal frost what did they mean by this

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category 3

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100 mph

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:trolley:

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ok but jesus christ

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it actually happened.

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recon found support for 100 kt

normal frost
#

what do they mean by this

atomic flint
#

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

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fixed now

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@normal frost so

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wanna talk about how

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this is by far and large the strongest june mdr storm?

atomic flint
atomic flint
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@normal frost hey so

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what if i told you there's a legitimate possibility that this thing becomes the first natl c4 in june

normal frost
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it has like what

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8 hours

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possibly?

atomic flint
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guess what

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recon found 115 kts sfmrs.

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also i believe BT has 105 kts? @normal frost

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02L BERYL 240630 1200 10.6N 54.0W ATL 105 968

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ok yea it does

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8 hours to get 10 knots

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damn they maintained 105 for advisory

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@normal frost @normal frost @normal frost @normal frost @normal frost

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my eyes are wide open rn

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126kt FL 132kt SFMR

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im actually Done

atomic flint
#

@normal frost

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gg

atomic flint
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💀

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115kts/962mb is wild tho

normal frost
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hey ill take it

atomic flint
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history

normal frost
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🔥

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it did the thing now it can explode and die

atomic flint
atomic flint
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right now

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also off topic alma being a major on june 8 is wild as fuck

normal frost
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yea

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the trajectory is scary

normal frost
normal frost
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wtf

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the S H R I M P

atomic flint
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yeah this thing is still on the gas pedal

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...sadly

normal frost
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praying for those people

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storm this early is not epic

atomic flint
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🙏

atomic flint
#

big yikes

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and if im not mistaken the area its targeting hasnt really felt a hurricane in 2 decades? dont have source for this tho

normal frost
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yikes

tribal arch
atomic flint
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@normal frost of course its gonna start an ewrc now out of all times

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why is everything literally going in the worst route possible

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quite interesting