Thieving Rebalance: Feedback Update

[silent oracle]

The table is also incorrect because it claims Legendary FFD aura adds +1:48 (which is 60 pickpockets, or a +15 level boost), but from my testing FFD only adds 39 or so pickpockets. same with ring and gloves/outfit adding about 13 pickpockets, rather than the expect 20 (or a +5 boost). The ardy cape boost does still seem to be a hidden level 10 boost (or 40 additional pickpockets). Im still trying to figure out how FFD aura and ring and gloves/outfit are calculated now

[glass robin]

The issue they are pointing out is the photo and real life don't match up

[dark wraith]

So long as crystal mask has its 5 minute timer, it would be impossible to actually confirm what the other buffs do in combination with it

[stuck cobalt]

the best result i got was 6:48 min of afk, all buffs (excepto magpie) and without sticky fingers acitvated

but still the avarage is way below of what they told us

[dark wraith]

Yea the problem ive seen there, is the rng kicks in the instant mask drops, ive had all of that, and even magpie active, and still got caught the moment it drops, so its buff stops applying and bounces back to whatever the sum total of all the others are the moment it dies

[stuck cobalt]

is not even the mask is like at least with 120 thieving after 5 min you have a high chance to get caught, the difference between use mask and not, was just like 10 seconds

[dark wraith]

Honestly its just simpler right now to expect the 5 minutes flat if your 120, you can do the full 5 minute duration with sticky fingers active with just the outfit, ring, ardy cape and mask

No point in the prayer, magpie, or aura, they dont really add anything on meno guards with those 4 others active as things currently stand

[junior glacier]

Rage baiting psyop

[silent oracle]

Further testing, this seems to be the case for any high level target. No buffs, except for ardy cloak which I cant turn off: 4 actions less than expected. ardy cloak + T5 aura: 20 actions less than expected. ardy cloak + ring of vitur or camouflage outfit with trahearn gloves bonus: 7-9 actions less than expected (no idea why it varies here).

[glass robin]

I think, based on what I've seen today, that the patch was largely successful. The CM timer is honestly a small detail in the large picture. The rebalance made the skill better for low / mid level. The patch largely fixed the high level afk time. So, I'd say the ball is rolling in the right direction

[dark wraith]

Im not denying that technically the update did make pickpocketing overall better at this point myself, simply that there were details shared about how times would work with things like CM and they simply dont
CM does not feel rewarding for what it would take a new player to unlock it now, and then lightform is functionally worthless for it now, since CM is hard capped at 5 minutes
Over all the health of the training method from an early and mid game standpoint is significantly better, but even with this update endgame still took to much of a hit for the sake of it, but its still workable even in its current iteration

[stone bridge]

No buffs on vyrelords feels so easy lol

Unless sticky fingers counts

[dark wraith]

In all fairness where vyres are concerned, thats a whole nother set of high level multistage annoying quests you need to complete to get to the consumers to pickpocket them, and without the ring already, you would need to actively be aware of the possibility of being attacked unless ones been lured into the bank or a house, so i wouldnt consider them as a problem myself even prior to the nerfs, but thats just me

cause i can see an arguement for things like the mena guards, or wizards, or archeaology professors, but vyres have an decently higher tedious set of quests theyre locked behind

Plus, you know, they need 118 to steal from the consumers

And tithers dont have the chance at the ring iirc

[quick sinew]

No need to nerf pickpocketing loot, Jamflex. 5-6m/hr is already shit-tier gp.

[dark wraith]

You know what else technically got randomly buffed by this change to thieving? Waiko islanders and cyclosis villagers, just a shame their loot absolutely suuuuucks lol

[glacial temple]

where you get 5-6m? the supposed npc is the tok traders but their loot dont sell in GE even on reduced price. so its not making profits

[worldly fractal]

Arch professors are 12m/hr according to wiki

[indigo pagoda]

Looking at the page, most of that is the 3 tetracompass pieces per hour, and the profit listed is assuming you turn the binding contracts into kal'gerion demons, which require additional time not factored into the gp/h
and the average ancient casket value they use includes the value of clue scroll rewards, also not factored into the time required
to break things down a bit, arch professors are about 1.1m gp/h, 1600 chronotes (480k gp), 225 materials (450k/h assuming average 2k each), 30 binding contracts, and 3 tetracompass pieces. immediately, that's about 2m gp/h. though with potential to make more with more time (and money in the case of kal'gerion demons, though that also is making money itself not included here) spent

[river robin]

I afk mine 8 hours a day with juju pot and spirits. Hmm

[glacial temple]

the actual profit is only 2m/hr on those.

like cae said it takes into account the other items that you have to do which doesnt factor in the time.

that 12m/hr takes into account if pickpocket magically binds completed kalgerion contracts and complete tetracompasses - which means theyre one of the worse money making methods in reality

[worldly fractal]

And why wouldn't you be doing tetras? Pickpocketing is simple and fairly afk, how much exactly are people wanting to make?

[glacial temple]

who said anything about not doing tetras? just that those rates you mentioned is calculated wrongly.

the actual profit on those npcs is 2m/hr

[worldly fractal]

You're getting the tetras from pickpocketing the npc. So why isn't that counted?

[glacial temple]

because tetras has no value and you cannot sell them. you also have to take time to do them which is not included in those calculations. they are also not pickpocketing skill.

if you want to calculate how much pickpocketing makes / hour, and then choose not to factor in time and then also choose to factor in profits by other activities, its not making a lot of sense.

i wonder why eternal magic tree wood cutting is not 100m/hr based on that way of calculations then

[indigo pagoda]

the tetra value included in the arch prof money making guide is also using the highest value listed for ancient caskets, of 8.3m each, rather than the 2.4m that excludes clues. and that 8.3m is including the value of dyes and orlando smith's hat rather than the lower clue values excluding those super rare items

[worldly fractal]

I do agree that perhaps making it does cost time unless you buy the mats. But doing them itself is a 1 step process. Regardless, for something so simple I don't think the loot needs to be buffed further

[glacial temple]

so either way your profits go down by farming or buying the items needed, and still takes time to do the tetras themselves. and again it is not pickpocketing related.

what is this about buffing loot?

[topaz dirge]

i think you're missing the point.

going by that logic, all pvm loot that drops seeds should be calculating the profits of herbs, or even potions made from the herbs (or the actual final product) that all came from the seeds

but that is not the case.

there should be a separate calculation for direct and indirect drop values.

therefore, similarly for pickpocketing of npcs like master farmers, you're saying also that the final calculation should come from the indirect profits made from seeds too and not seeds alone.

[wise folio]

tetras shouldnt be counted in pickpocketing profit a hour but it should in value

you dont get much tetras from pickpocketing in a hour and they take like 1 min to solve, same with contracts

[glacial temple]

sorry i dont really get this, it shouldnt be in pickpocketing but it should in terms of value??? you only get the money after doing that activity, if not it is 0 gp (as cant do anything with it unlike seeds which you can sell)
planting seeds take even less time like Kraden mentioned above though, if we are going to calculate value in that way

[wise folio]

except seeds have a direct value in ge

and you get 75% of a tetra and 30 contracts lol

thats really not gonna take much time

[glacial temple]

yes, yet in profit calculations we only calculate profits in real time, not what is theoratical and from another activity and without including the time and resources needed to them

if going by your calculations, the seeds for example should be included in calculations for every profit making method that has seeds (it takes seconds literally to plant them).
and to even take away consideration for time, every raw material should have calculations for their end product.

[wise folio]

yeah so they can just make it like 53 mins instead of a hour

[glacial temple]

you can include tetra into calculations but it just would make it reflect an inccurate gp/hr scenario.
afk mining iron ore will be like 50m/hr or something as well with end products (it also doesnt take long to process them into other things)

[wise folio]

its the wiki lol, if you dont agree with it you can prolly just edit the page

[glacial temple]

im just explaining pickpocketing earns way less money in real terms if you sell everything (2m for arch prof), as people were quoting arch professors earning >10m and should be nerfed.

so if you are insisting on it about that particular method of calculation for money making, if we apply that to all money making methods then mining iron ore is going to be like 50m/hr (just guessing here), any seed acquring method will have that multipled many folds etc (same line of theory - it only takes about 1 min to process them and profit and even less with planting seeds - and this is even without rng like clues)

[topaz dirge]

ye this should be excluded from base calculations (direct), unless there are footnotes to provide context of the assumed completion time for each tetra

for the sake of argument, it should be from direct value, not indirect

same for binding contracts

[karmic siren]

This discussion is off-topic unless the money making guides that have been posted on wiki are actually being taken into account by Jagex for rebalancing. It's meant to be a guide, an example of what actions that you can take to turn that profit, and it also has specific level requirements listed. Note that the quanity provided for the ancient casket is 0.75, indicating that it would be 3 of the 4 pieces. By using logic, we can assume that the guide suggests that a minimum of 4 hours of pickpocketing archaeologist professors is required to get an average of 11.5mil per hour.

[glacial temple]

this is related as you know there is going to be pickpocketing loot rebalancing.

the problem is pickpocketing only nets you 2m/hr.
the otherwise inflated gp is from other sources of activity which also takes time which is not included, and eliminates RNG and gives you highest value of rewards, and also include the subsequent clue scrolls afterwards.

that 0.75 is based on the 3 tetracompass pieces you get on average in an hour.

people are thinking you get >10m/hr from that guide (but no, you dont get tetras, clues etc all automatically completed and looted by the end of that hour.)
FYI on that page it says this. tony is billions worth - this greatly decreases real time gp/hr from that calculation

[ocean granite]

Tony's mattock only adds a little over 500k to casket's value

[glacial temple]

ik but its one of the highest value item. and doing tetras is not thieving

[glass robin]

So based off today's aura blog. It looks like the five finger will be a thieves guild scroll unlock. But it's effect changes a little

[twin notch]

I'm a fan of that. Always-on passives to set-and-forget are the goods

[glacial temple]

that would work so much better with the pickpocket mechanics that we currently have, though that is still gated by CM 5min/ ? usefulness of LF if over 100

[stuck cobalt]

@stuck parcel There is any plan to fix real afk timers problems to make it similar to what the team suggest in the table?

[glass robin]

Also want to point out if nobody else has, I've seen 2 occurrences where I have been caught with plenty of time on the CM buff left. Could just be weird one off situations. One was with about 15 seconds left on CM timer. But the other was more egregious at 2+ min left on the timer.

[wispy harbor]

Likely depends heavily on what target you were on and what other buffs you had active. Mask isn't itself just a "you can't get caught" buff.

[glass robin]

Mena guards. No other buffs active besides camo outfit. Without mask I get consistent 4+ min. With mask, I get basically 5 min plus one tick then caught. For the exception of those 2 one off events

With mask and light form. Consistent 5:30ish.

[silent oracle]

So, I did a bunch more testing. And thieving buffs are making less and less sense. At the baseline (120 thieving + ardougne tasks 3) I get 4 less successful pickpockets before being suspected than I should. I think the baseline is just wrong (should be 0:45 (25 pickpockets) rather than 0:52 (29 pickpockets)) but it's also possible that the Ardougne buff is weaker than expected. Next the +15 buffs of FFD aura and Crystal Mask should add 1:48 (60 additional pickpockets), but in practice they only add 1:19.2 (44 additional pickpockets) to the timer before becoming suspicious. Then the Ring of Vitur and Trahearn gloves/camouflage outfit, both +5 boosts, act even weirder. Used on their own they both give 4 less successful pickpockets than expected, and used together they give 8 (cuz 4+4) less successful pickpockets. However, if you combine either the ring or outfit with the FFD aura or crystal mask you will get an additional 4 fewer successful pickpockets (and of course an additional 8 less if you combine both ring and outfit with either FFD or CM). And for the kicker I tested the magpie. At Tzhaar-Hur and Fairy traders I actually got the full 12 additional pickpockets I expected from the +3 level boost, however at Vyrelord consumers I only got 8 additional pickpockets. And even weirder, combining the magpie with the ring of vitur resulted in 12 less pickpockets than expected at all 3 targets, rather than 8 less pickpockets at tzhaar/fairy traders, and 12 less pickpockets at consumers.

[silent oracle]

Raw numbers, no sticky fingers, expected amount of successful pickpockets equation =
(120 + boosts - target level (111 for tzhaar, 118 for vyrelords))x4 (because 0.25% success chance drop per level) + 29 (because of 0:52 baseline, though I suspect this should be +25 (0:45 baseline))
then multiply the numbers below by 1.8 (3 ticks per pickpocketing attempt) to get the actual expected time spent afk.
Example: ((104+15-104)x4+29)x1.8=160.2 seconds which is congruent with the 2:40 for doing Menaphos Guards at 104 thieving with only Crystal Mask as shown in the blog's table.
And: ((120+15-104)x4+29)x1.8=275.4 seconds which is congruent with the 4:35 for doing Menaphos Guards at 120 thieving with only Crystal Mask as shown in the blog's table.
[Expected amount of successful pickpockets before becoming suspicious | Actual amount of successful pickpockets before becoming suspicious]:
Boost name (+lvl) - - - - TzHaar-Hur Traders (lvl 111) - Vyrelord Consumers (lvl 118):
Baseline (ardy cloak (+10)) - [105 | 101] - - - - - - - - - - - [77 | 73]
Magpie (+3) - - - - - - - - - - - [117 | 113] - - - - - - - - - - - [89 | 81]
Ring of Vitur (+5) - - - - - - - [125 | 117] - - - - - - - - - - - [97 | 89]
Camouflage outfit (+5) - - - - [125 | 117] - - - - - - - - - - -[97 | 89]
Magpie + ring - - - - - - - - - - [137 | 125] - - - - - - - - - - [109 | 97]
Ring + outfit - - - - - - - - - - - [145 | 133] - - - - - - - - - - [117 | 105]
FFD aura (+15) - - - - - - - - - [165 | 145] - - - - - - - - - - [137 | 117]
Aura + ring (+20) - - - - - - - - [185 | 157] - - - - - - - - - - [157 | 129]
Aura + ring + outfit (+25) - - - [205 | 169] - - - - - - - - - - [177 | 141]
Crystal Mask (+15) - - - - - - - [165 | 145] - - - - - - - - - - [137 | 117]
Crystal Mask + ring (+20) - - - [185 | 157] - - - - - - - - - - [157 | 129]

[glass robin]

That tracks with my CM comment. It seems like occasionally, (not all the time) that the buff expires a few ticks short. Not a major deal. Just odd. Based on your testing and some other people's, it seems like the entire chart is slightly over estimated. In their defense, it does say approx times. But, nonetheless, seems a tad bit over the real life numbers. But I'm not tripping over it. Just wanted to notate the discrepancy.

[stuck cobalt]

i wouldnt call it "slightly," or "aprox" there is literally a difference of 50% of what they propuse in the table with all buffs, wich is even bigger if you consider the table doesnt counts others buffs

[glacial temple]

is this taking into account the when npc moves, pickpocketing sometimes miss a tick and get slower?

[silent oracle]

The numbers are just the amount of expected vs. amount of actual pickpocketing attempts. Moving has no impact on these numbers. As for the amount of afk time you would expect if you multiplied the actual numbers by 1.8t, then moving does have a little bit of an impact. But you just get a little more afk time at the cost of a little less xp/loot.

[sinful garden]

worse than what lmao? its miles ahead of everything else

lmao what? its far greater output then input as is

[mellow compass]

thieving is far better than comparable gathering skills, the loot tables are accessible much earlier than if you trained those other skills at all level ranges

[sinful garden]

yeah lmao

[mellow compass]

I think there's a good reason people are being dishonest and saying that it's about the afk when plenty of 15 min afk methods exist that are good money like elder logs

thieving's just broken as fuck and the the changes hugely buffed pickpocketing in the early and midgame so you can actually hit the endgame loot tables easier than before

[sinful garden]

Yeah

I think its a big improvement to kill as much of the afk theiving methods as possible

[mellow compass]

it's not even close to killing anything, I can comfortably afk archaeologists at level 80 for 2 mins at a time which is pretty insane for 300k xp/hr + 600 chronotes/hr

before the changes you couldn't even pickpocket archaeologists at that level because you just get caught 4 times in a row

[stuck cobalt]

define "plenty" of 15 min afk methods, without include smithing, mining, or um soles (and no elders logs arent considered a 15 min activity)

[misty lance]

That's what I am saying 👀

[karmic siren]

I miss 15 minutes of afk thieving. I do.

Do you know what I don't miss? Having to pickpocket lv 78 archaeologists at lv 115 thieving because I don't have CM and other high end unlocks. The thieving update is allowing me to legitimately do end game content. So, for that its nice.
~ 2:32 minutes at Tzhaar before becoming suspicious

Trading my 15 minutes afk, for being able to enjoy the content more appropriate to my level is acceptable. I've gotten > 2 million xp haphazardly since the update dropped yesterday, 2 minutes at a time.

[glacial temple]

i mean earlier in my example i was using mining iron ore as an exmaple that net 2.5m gp/hr was full afk with spirits and juju. pickpocket above 3m are above lvl 99 and they dont actually protift that number, due to the numbers being inflated by a singular high value rare that dont sell on GE

[topaz zinc]

Clue scrolls should not be the only thing for stealing. Imagine if we had a harder chance of getting the 3rd age gear or dyes from stealing.

[glacial temple]

they have always been clues only rewards though, its gonna wreck the market if we get them during pickpocketing too and not much reward for clues anymore

[sinful garden]

speaking of clue rewards im surprised they rebalanced keys to not give fortunates anymore

[brisk agate]

Imagine you have a brain

[topaz zinc]

https://tenor.com/view/berserk-guts-berserk-griffith-punching-guts-punching-griffith-gif-27000236

[brisk agate]

You know what. Since you know Guts I consider us friends now

[quick sinew]

Daily reminder to Jamflex that thieving loot nerfs are unnecessary as the gp/hr is already garbage-tier. It's only useful for getting pain in the ass items like clues, binding contracts, fine sand, etc.

[river robin]

what was the gp/hr pre nerf?

[quick sinew]

They didn't nerf pickpocketing loot yet but they said they're planning to nerf by 30%. Right now it's 5-6m/hr max, which is pathetically low and doesn't need nerfing.

[river robin]

5-6m an hour fully afk is very strong wdym

for comparison mining the top tier ore is half that

[quick sinew]

?? u can straight up afk gwd for 50 min and get more than that

[tawny mirage]

have you compared the start up costs?

[quick sinew]

bruh, upkeep for gwd is basically 0.

[river robin]

why would a fully afk thieving activity pay more vs killing godwars bosses?

[tawny mirage]

Start Up Costs, not upkeep costs, initial barrier to entry cost

[river robin]

i dont think a fully afk skilling method should be printing more then 4m an hour

[tawny mirage]

what are you afking GWD2 in? And how much does THAT cost

[river robin]

think he means gwd1, arma etc

[quick sinew]

u think start up costs are high for gwd?

[tawny mirage]

for fully afking GWD? yeh

[quick sinew]

lol no. I can also just kill rax with bronze and get more than 5-6m/hr lmfao

[glacial temple]

there is no pickpocketing method that nets you more than 5m/hr. the suggested ones like vyres/jal have their GP/hr boosted due to high GE value rares that dont sell. their real time profit is much lesser

[quick sinew]

exactly. literally no reason to nerf pickpocketing loot.

[wise folio]

menaphos guards...

[quick sinew]

those are less than 5m/hr

[twin notch]

They're more if you consider doing the clues themselves.
It's like big profit but with extra steps and depends how long they take etc.

[quick sinew]

if you want to consider clues, you need to include the time taken to complete them, which varies depending on skill/experience of the player

[stuck cobalt]

no guide or respectable method consider those extra steps as direct profit to the moneymaking, is like getting seeds and add the drops more value because you could plant them, that has no sense

[twin notch]

Mhm, and that varies wildly. I'm like a 1 clue per 10 minutes kind of person but know some can do 40+ an hour.

[quick sinew]

plus, the clue part is not afk at all, so shouldn't be considered when thinking of nerfing pickpocketing loot

[glacial temple]

doing clues isnt pickpocketing lol

[quick sinew]

and so, it is clear that there is no reason to nerf pickpocketing loot

[next path]

clues take time so this is not "per hour"

[wise folio]

its 18 elites a hour so if you picket pocket for a hour and spend the next hour doing elites, thats 40m a hour (81m a hour if you dont count gathering)
if you are cracked and can do 36 clues a hour, you can afk for 2 and do clues for 1 for 54m a hour average (162m a hour if only counting active time)

so thats still very good for what is half afk

also menaphos market guard are better than abyssal lords, which are way harder to do with much higher upkeep costs and much less afk

[twin notch]

Those numbers feel really high, clues feel like 1m each (a fortunate from most but not all) unless exceptionally lucky - but agree that the doing shouldn't be discounted, especially since clues are the primary reason most people choose to pickpocket there (or maybe it's the exp) - either way, probably not for the other non-clues loot which is pennies.

[wise folio]

elites are on average 4.5m each (800k if you dont drop dye lol)

[topaz dirge]

i think thieving can still take a hit on the direct gold income it generates, whereas the resources gotten from it, could stay.

(this is without consideration for the impact to irons)

i think the point of untradeables is that, unless it is utilised, it is useless.

think about if we have a pickpocket npc that only drops all untradeable loot. perfect juju pots, overloads, binding contract, charms.

with these 4 items alone, and having no other tradeable loot (or gold), pickpocketing from this npc produces 0 net value unless those 4 items are utilised in the activity where they produce something tradeable.

similar to if i gave you a pickaxe that cannot be sold or traded to anyone else in real life. unless you utilise it for its intended purpose, that pickaxe you received from me won't generate any direct income for you.

hence, why i think tradeables should not exist, as it limits gameplay and experience.

i don't wanna do clues because i hate the activity. so i should be able to sell it off to someone who wants to use it to get the final produce, for however little profit i can get compared to 0 by keeping it around

[glacial temple]

clue scrolls are treasure trails distraction and diversion activity, could you guys take it elsewhere if trying to calculate their profit if doing them?
adding profit from that activity arbitrarily into another method like pickpocket is also illogical as they have no real value until you actually do them. if doing that then afk PVM ganodermic beasts for example is >10m/hr for example, or if calculating the above then pickpocket is >150m/hr and then some other methods will be billions/hr
PVM, safecracking, mining, archaelogy, woodcutting, fishing, farming, divination - have you guys ever seen them adding doing clue scroll profits into their gp/hr?

[midnight mulch]

Let's not insult other users, thanks. You can disagree with them without directly attacking them

[mellow compass]

Clue hunting is a legitimate moneymaker, but if the profit from clue scrolls is so intangible to the point where we should just ignore them, then we can nerf them to the same level as WC/mining then, right?

This is the first time I've seen someone argue that clues don't count as profit until you do them lol

[wise folio]

the problem isnt even profits, its since afk pickpocketing is best for elite clues, better than slayer methods that are much harder

[mellow compass]

AFK pickpocketing should not be anywhere near competitive for clue hunting

Clues are clearly an important balancing lever because they're basically the final frontier for cloggers

[stuck cobalt]

to be honest, there is a little, very little part of the community who does clues for money

[tawny mirage]

there's enough who do that fortunate components have a stable value

[topaz zinc]

Bought the golden age trilogy when Japan first released it over a decade ago. The Godhand is the most broken group ever. (more broken than Yhwach from Bleach)

[mellow compass]

It's not about doing it for money, it's the fact that they generate tons of forts regardless any time people are hunting for dyes or clogging

[quick sinew]

in what universe does it make sense to balance pickpocketing loot as a whole around the gp/hr that some individuals are able to get from the very non-afk and unrelated activity that is treasure trails?