#Stuck on Probability

25 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

umbral trellisBOT
honest magnet
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<@&286206848099549185>

pseudo dragon
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it has to do with the missing information, you can't tell the probability without it, but if you had it, it could be large or small

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so that's what they mean, how large could it possibly be

honest magnet
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okay

pseudo dragon
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it's kinda really easy, especially a and b

honest magnet
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this was a puzzle the teacher pput on the board as an extension but we havent really studied anything like this so im not really sure to go haha

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is it to do with bayes theorem

pseudo dragon
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the missing information is how much the circles overlap, the left is more or less realistic

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it shows that going twice barely ever happens but it does happen

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if the circles don;t overlap, it corresponds to the answer to b)

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there would be 70% chance that you go shopping, and this is highest it can be while consistent with "30% on saturday, 40% on sunday"

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well C actually doesn't make sense

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at least there's something weird about the question and i can;t tell what exactly is wrong

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so like they mean "the more i'm certain i shop on saturday the less i;m certain i shop on sunday" and that's meaningful, and not tautological at all, and maybe you would indeed phrase it like they did

honest magnet
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wait does it have to do with the chi squared test?

pseudo dragon
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this is not the case, in a), or b) or c)

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but this is the right area

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it's what it's "about"

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P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)
P(A) + P(B) is fixed, P(A and B) is unknown

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you set it to 0, you get maximum "or" size, that's b)

honest magnet
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ah

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i got 58%, 70% and closer to the minimum