#Need help on probability problem - rolling a 3% 6 times in a row

64 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

toxic gazelle
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I came across this in a video game: killing a boss has a 3% chance to drop an item. I wanted to calculate the odds for dropping it 6 times in a row and it turned out to be 1 in 13 million chance, which sounds ridiculous to me. Could someone walk me through it and correct me if I was wrong? :)

My work:

   3% -> 0.03
let a =  0.03^6
let b =  a*100
  1/b =  ~13m
1 in 13 million chance???```
karmic bronzeBOT
rapid minnow
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it's one in 13 million chance

toxic gazelle
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No mistakes?

rapid minnow
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but it refers to a single experiment where you kill the boss 6 times

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so like if you kill it 8 times, it's a bit more

toxic gazelle
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yes

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basically like rolling a dice and it has 3% chance to end up on a 6

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and that 6 times in a row

rapid minnow
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well ok there's a mistake i get it

haughty moss
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@toxic gazelle is it independent or no?

toxic gazelle
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it is

rapid minnow
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you multiplied by 100, it's actually one in a billion

toxic gazelle
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then my problem is solved :)

haughty moss
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@toxic gazelle wait I’m still confused could u explain

toxic gazelle
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so 3% chance,

haughty moss
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Correct

toxic gazelle
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you want to get those 6 times in a row*

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i wanted to calculate the odds for that happening

haughty moss
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And how did u end up doing it

toxic gazelle
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my issue was being uncertain if i was correct

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I raised the percentage by power of 6

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so 0.03^6

haughty moss
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But what math would u do for it to be correct

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Oh

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0.03x6 gives you the answer?

toxic gazelle
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No, raising it by 6? I assumed

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0.03x0.03x0.03x0.03x0.03x0.03

haughty moss
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Ya

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Correct?

toxic gazelle
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Doesnt seem so

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I did 0.03^6 there

haughty moss
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0.000000000729

toxic gazelle
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yes

haughty moss
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That

toxic gazelle
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that is correct

haughty moss
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Out of what

rapid minnow
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out of 1

haughty moss
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How does that correlate to 1 out of 1 billion tho

toxic gazelle
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I then multiplied that by 100 (which was incorrect)

rapid minnow
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you divide one by this numebr

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1371742112.48

toxic gazelle
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if you divide a percentage by 1, you get the odds

rapid minnow
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roughly one billion

haughty moss
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1/0.000000000729?

toxic gazelle
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Correct

rapid minnow
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yes

haughty moss
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And then

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What

rapid minnow
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that's it

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that's a billion

toxic gazelle
haughty moss
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Oh so u were giving an exact number

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Werent*

rapid minnow
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yep

toxic gazelle
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hence the ~ symbol

haughty moss
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Ohhh alr appreciate it I already did this in 8th grade but I just forgot abt it I don’t have math this semester unfortunately

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Thanks tho

toxic gazelle
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no problem :)

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.close

karmic bronzeBOT
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Solved

Post marked as solved by @toxic gazelle.

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