#Comeback Music Show Wins Analysis, Discussions & Questions (1st CB 2023)

1122 messages · Page 2 of 2 (latest)

vocal girder
#

it will really depend on how the digitals shake out, and whether or not broadcast points will zero out for both IDLE and ENHYPEN

#

I call it a coin flip tbh

#

DC overachieved by crushing the pre-vote and SNS streaming

minor totem
#

If gidle gets 0 on broadcast I think we'll edge it out, otherwise I think they'll get it

vocal girder
#

broadcast is dependent on MBC M airtime and not just appearances. Show Champion has zeroed artists with no attendance before, but some have gotten a small amount of credit for air time elsewhere in the network

minor totem
#

yh

tepid mesa
#

But Idle & enhypen can be nominated or is it like today ?

minor totem
#

Yeah they will be nominated

vocal girder
#

Attendance isn't required on any other show

#

the top nominees are not just 3, it's likely we will see aespa up there as well as LSF

tepid mesa
#

Ah well lets see if we get anything tomorrow

vocal girder
#

yep. but it'd be a big feather in DC's cap to notch a win against much more popular groups no matter the circumstances

gray yew
#

Anything else we can do today to help out?

minor totem
#

Nope, it's all up to luck now

vocal girder
#

so like mozy said we've basically done everything we can since SC tracking ends on the Sunday before

gray yew
#

I have failed us all

#

commits sudoku

vocal girder
#

if you've been streaming the MV and optionally bought albums you good

quasi plover
#

any chance of winning the show next week?

faint yarrow
#

More than .01% chance

forest gale
#

I kinda think next week The Show may not be on the air, its Memorial Day in Korea

#

If anyone saw any next week preview during livestream, you can let me know

forest gale
vocal girder
vocal girder
forest gale
#

I dont expect us to win there again, but just for some 2nd week data purposes

forest gale
vocal girder
#

lol

forest gale
#

oh, on December 7th too, just scrolled past the table

vocal girder
#

wait, are you asking because you think we might actually stand a chance at another win that week?

forest gale
#

no, its because I wrote to a person above that I think they may cancel it because of the holiday

#

im reasonable

#

maybe

vocal girder
#

lol

forest gale
#

nothing would really support this expectation

vocal girder
#

AB6IX: 21k physical, 1.8 million YT, 20s in MelOn latest, no Bugs, 209 Genie
CIX: 61k physical, 1.1 million YT, low top 100 Bugs, top 25 MelOn, no Genie

#

based on one day

#

DC will lose on the physical but streaming appears comparable, YT views only slightly behind. I don't see it but you never know

forest gale
#

I decided to keep watching ads and earn jellies for next week regardless

#

YT views, we started a tracking week with ~11.5 M views, maybe 11M, we are crushing competition here if their companies don't go for ads

deft moth
#

So happy that we really did it! JiuSad

forest gale
forest gale
#

DC has JJMuze fansign on same day as The Show next week. 14:00

vocal girder
#

one wonders if they'd move it, but it seems doubtful. They would need to be at the studio during the day for rehearsal so simply going there straight from the fansign seems a little aggressive

#

guess we will know when the fancafe schedule updates. I have hesitated to put down week two shows for now

mild void
#

has anyone looked into how many broadcast points a team gets for attending show champion the week before? based on my very quick skimming and searching, it looks like you get around 1000 broadcast points

vocal girder
#

https://twitter.com/KshowAnalysis/status/1661323718508023810 - Idle did not attend weekly idol. yet they got 1067 broadcast points. There was no broadcast the previous week. So it's safe to assume that this 1067 was awarded strictly for May 24th

KPOP Music Show Analysis (@KshowAnalysis)

💯 230524 <SHOW CHAMPION> Score Breakdown

🥇 #GIDLE - Queencard
🥈 #aespa - Spicy
🥉 #VERIVERY - Crazy Like That
4⃣ #LE_SSERAFIM - UNFORGIVEN
5⃣ #ONEUS - ERASE ME

(Digital / Physical / Pre-voting / SNS / Broadcast / TOTAL)

Likes

220

Twitter ·
mild void
#

hmm interesting ty

forest gale
#

I looked into every score starting from 2022

mild void
#

ooh i assumed the mbc m programs that would earn you broadcast points are weekly idol and sc lmao

#

and since the tracking week is before i assumed it would count the sc appearance the week before

#

that’s good news for us i guess

forest gale
deft moth
#

When is the Show Champion stream starting and when is the announcement for the winners? 🙂

forest gale
#

I think everything around the same time as the Show yesterday, so 6 pm. KST and 7.10-7.20PM for announcement

deft moth
#

Ah Show Champion is tomorrow not today right?

forest gale
#

in less than 3 hours

forest gale
unreal gulch
#

someone tag me when dc gets 4th win

deft moth
#

The Livestream can be viewed in the Idolchamp app right? I know I could last time, but I haven't found where, yet. 😅

forest gale
#

I usually go to youtube and type Show Champion

vocal whale
#

^Theres a link to the YT stream here

forest gale
#

Only thing I hate on Show Champion is announcement of the winner with the clip of the MV, without revealing the score instead. I can't just pause at every score line and gather information I see to control my expectations, like I was able to do with The Show

minor totem
#

right lol

forest gale
#

70 points

#

that's why I was happy seeing DC gaining 2 points on Gidle every hour on SNS during the weekend and the voting. SC predictions are usually right to hundreds of points

vocal girder
#

The idle fandom got complacent after sweeping shows

vocal whale
#

It's so wack looking at those numbers...crushed in physicals + digitals

#

Carried by the opportune moment when the competition didn't show up + pre-vote

forest gale
#

even one week ago we were shutting down any possibility due to competition

#

we have to realize that wins for DC will only come from a mixture of good circumstances, power voting and DCC willingness to spent money on YT ads

#

others hope on every new comeback suddenly going viral, but what are the chances of that

vocal girder
#

Always a possibility, but until then it's going to be always a fight.

forest gale
#

Reading a tweet that this is the last week for Bon Voyage. If true, no wonder they may skip The Show next week for a fansign and probably get back on Wednesday with Promose/Demian?

vocal girder
#

maybe. They are confirmed through Music Bank this week and will likely at least complete a circuit with Inkigayo

#

no indication I can see on fancafe, you have the source tweet?

forest gale
mild void
#

ready for demian/propose promotions aDongCheer

vocal girder
#

With DEMIAN choreo in the works and Propose already known to have choreo I don't see them not promoting it but we will see.

vocal girder
#

Ok AB6IX just passed a million physical on Hanteo. Just boy group things. Feeling less great about any win chance even if DC attended the show lol

forest gale
#

so yeah, concert on June 3rd instead of Music Core, fansign on 6th instead of The Show. I don't think they will go to Inkigayo this week too

vocal girder
#

after what they pulled last Mucore day I don't put it past them to perform then go to Mucore lol or pre-record then go to the concert. Guess we'll find out

forest gale
vocal girder
#

oh god, I forgot about that

#

I'm too used to boy groups just dropping 1 million without breaking a sweat

forest gale
#

For CIX its ~110k, AB6IX at 40k. 3 days

vocal girder
#

DC is competitive there but not amazing. And I think the fandom is pretty exhausted with the efforts to get wins, so with two of them in the bag we'll see less here.

#

I would definitely laugh if inexplicably they attended The Show and somehow won

forest gale
#

I think tomorrow in prevote we will see us missing there

#

as you know, usually music shows are whole day schedule

vocal girder
#

If they are making hearts during choreo for mubank we will know that's the last stage, also.

vocal girder
vocal girder
#

Dreamcatcher is missing from The Show pre-vote. Definitely not attending now

#

that'll likely wrap it up for win chances this CB barring virality

forest gale
#

We had a good run this comeback. Thanks for creating space where i could ramble about Music Shows chances without others telling me to shut up Dongkek

unreal gulch
#

r we still gearing for mubeat one?

fair basin
unreal gulch
#

yea

vocal girder
#

Plus people get the info and participate however they want

vocal girder
unreal gulch
#

ah ok

#

r we still voting for anything rn or can i pause on collecting rn

fair basin
vocal girder
#

There's Hot Stages for Inkigayo but more for bragging rights/small award than anything.

#

I usually collect passively throughout the year on various apps and use them when I need to, like for expiring currency

vocal girder
#

Inkigayo confirmed last stage via official tweet. Barring virality for a bside that'll definitely wrap it up for win chances and music show competition

#

grabbing two due to a combo of fortunate circumstances and work by the fandom at various levels was more than I was expecting. For next time, when I post initial analysis, we'll have to analyze whether or not competing groups attend certain shows more than a week at a time or what schedules they may have

#

we unfortunately learned almost nothing about Circle digital chart, which sucks. If we knew more, it would be easier to predict The Show points.

#

for you all who might still have currency to spare on Star Planet, consider helping KARD out, though they have a tall order beating week 1 AB6IX