Post your prediction for the election, here's a map to fill out for the electoral college https://www.270towin.com/
Senate/House race predictions also welcome
#2024 US Election Predictions Thread
proven lodge
Please Kamala win
hard hearth
I dont wanna predict because ive already got enough stress with university
but #TrumpForPrison2024
proven lodge
For real
hard hearth
Here's mine. I'm confident Harris will win and by a comfortable margin
damn 100 more electorates
dapper pond
Indeed
hard hearth
Thats like best case scenario to me
im just curious what led you to that exact prediction john?
@dapper pond
craggy dagger
continued from the US politics thread
i'm less optimistic but i want it to be a blowout for harris
i would say it is likely she can take georgia/nevada/arizona but idk
pennsylvania is a lock for her i think
as would be wisconsin and michigan
dapper pond
im just curious what led you to that exact prediction john?
Early voting data, selzer Iowa poll + general lack of confidence in polling aggregates being accurate about it being so close
Polling overall is almost certainly undercounting the impact of women on this election
That is also why I have Iowa, Texas, Florida, and Ohio as closer than most polls are indicating too
hard hearth
Polling overall is almost certainly undercounting the impact of women on this el...
probably black and latino communities too?
hard hearth
That is also why I have Iowa, Texas, Florida, and Ohio as closer than most polls...
Didnt those all lean trump in 2020
dapper pond
probably black and latino communities too?
Yeah but I think they're underpredicting women's votes, not those
dapper pond
Didnt those all lean trump in 2020
Yes and I think they'll still go for Trump but way closer than 2020, with Iowa and Texas being realllly close
neat herald
Texas is becoming more liberal over time
dapper pond
Texas has always had a lot of liberal voters but they don't turn out, I think they'll turn out like crazy this year
neat herald
Do you think that by 2028 they might turn Texas blue
or are there too many republicans
dapper pond
I don't wanna predict it but there's certainly a chance for Texas to do that, and for Iowa and Florida to recover back to being purple states
neat herald
It looks very possible to me
dapper pond
That's probably the safe pick
neat herald
Pennsylvania I feel can swing either way
onyx tinsel
I haven’t really looked up the polling for WI or MI
dapper pond
I honestly don't think PA is gonna super close, closer than MI and WI though
Based on early voting mostly
neat herald
Kamala has a narrow lead in Wisconsin and Michigan is leaning slightly Trump last time I checked
Though it might have changed
hard hearth
im curious how close the biden win was
For comparison
how can i find a pic of that chart
dapper pond
Biden won everything in this, plus GA and AZ
dapper pond
how can i find a pic of that chart
Google "2020 presidential election"
dapper pond
I'm basically thinking Harris gets that + NC
If she gets Arizona she's getting North Carolina
onyx tinsel
I don’t think she’s getting NC
onyx tinsel
If she gets Arizona she's getting North Carolina
What does AZ have to do with NC
neat herald
I don’t know if she gets AZ tbh
hard hearth
I got you skeet
Damn that was a bit farther than "narrow victory"
neat herald
One could say
dapper pond
What does AZ have to do with NC
They're not directly related, I just think winning one means having enough support among the right demographic groups to win the other
hard hearth
And i just dont see many people that voted for biden changing this time around
dapper pond
Like if she wins PA she has MI and WI too
hard hearth
Like trump has only gotten worse
neat herald
This is what we really need
dapper pond
That's what it would look like if only women voted
neat herald
fr
neat herald
Obama destroyed McCain lol
dapper pond
Kamala you can do it I believe in you
After this is decided we'll come back in here and see who was closest
onyx tinsel
It won’t be me I’m never good at these
neat herald
it probably won’t be me
onyx tinsel
Which means that Kamala is gonna lose because I’m always wrong
hard hearth
https://www.270towin.com/historical_maps/2008_large.png
closer to a loss in 2012 tho
dapper pond
Yeah technically closer but Romney still got wrecked
neat herald
Obama was ballin in the EC
dapper pond
I dream of a blue Ohio and Florida again
onyx tinsel
Sorry buddy it’s not happening
dapper pond
I'm not saying this time
hard hearth
Yeah technically closer but Romney still got wrecked
Kinda unrelated but this is one of the best deleted tweets of all time for me
the fact that its in 2023 is comedy gold to me
shy belfry
lmaoo he just felt like saying it
long geyser
That's what it would look like if only women voted
That’s definitely not true
dapper pond
That’s definitely not true
Harris has overwhelming support among women of all demographic groups
From black women to boomer suburban white women
gray wadi
i love how nobody here has predicted a republican victory, it just goes to show that Greenday fans are just as liberal as the band members
onyx tinsel
i love how nobody here has predicted a republican victory, it just goes to show ...
Dude i was saying 2 weeks ago that trump was definitely going to win
Now i think Kamala is going to win
Im not predicting based on who i like more
gray wadi
Make a prediction
one side saying it was rigged and the other saying it wasn’t
gray wadi
Im not predicting based on who i like more
it’s refreshing to hear that, i haven’t heard anyone give an unbiased opinion in so long
dapper pond
I am predicting based on data
Not gut feelings
I wasn't so sure about it a few weeks ago either
dapper pond
one side saying it was rigged and the other saying it wasn’t
How do you think the electoral college will end up
There's a map up top you can fill out
gray wadi
right now it’s to close to tell, i want to predict harris but the reality is that that is just me wishing
dapper pond
Well it's the night before, last call to make a prediction lol
gray wadi
civil war…
dapper pond
Civil war
onyx tinsel
Oh
dapper pond
Look at the map
dapper pond
Yeah real ones only, pretty please
gray wadi
my best guess
dapper pond
Is that a straight up tie in MI, PA, and WI
gray wadi
no leaning democrat but like 51% lean
dapper pond
Ah
craggy dagger
one thing i keep undervaluing is the fact that a lot of things have happened over the past four years that would actually shift a lot of people more to the democrats i think
roe v wade being overturned being one of those things, for example
maybe i'm talking out of my ass
but that's what it seems like to me
gray wadi
no i see your point, actually i remember reading an article about the percentage of republican voters that trump drove away after his first term
it was a high percentage but I think the effects of that have worn off now
long geyser
It feels like the vote is “anyone but trump” vs trump
gray wadi
there is a guy who legally changed his name to literally anyone else (or literally anybody else i forget) and he is running for president and he has a very neutral platform
he was on the news but more so as a joke than anything else
storm plover
my perdiction: it's going to be really fucking close, and PA is going to be the deciding factor in the election with kamala harris just barely winning
storm plover
my best guess
honestly, i think texas might flip towards democrat
and WI will be more republican
dapper pond
one thing i keep undervaluing is the fact that a lot of things have happened ove...
IMO the overwhelmingly male political commentators are not giving the dobbs decision the weight it deserves in driving voter turnout
craggy dagger
i think taking that into consideration means my prediction was a lot more conservative than it maybe should have been
and i wouldn't be surprised if harris takes like all of the swing states barring north carolina and perhaps arizona
i'm actually not sure why NC would be considered a swing state when it seems pretty solidly red to me, was it blue in 2020 or something
long geyser
Yeah I definitely think Harris is gonna win
Trump has way too many haters to ever get back in office
dreamy sparrow
Trump has way too many haters to ever get back in office
man no one in politics likes each other
that really has no bearing on whether he'll get back in
*assuming that the voting process is fair and untampered with
craggy dagger
damn they split dixville
onyx tinsel
Whats so important about Dixville
why do i keep hearing about it
it has a population of FOUR
shy belfry
that name is pretty funny too
craggy dagger
Dixville Notch
karmic grotto
I'm a bit late but better late than never
karmic grotto
Here's mine. I'm confident Harris will win and by a comfortable margin
all swing states go blue, that's an interesting prediction
dapper pond
Indeed
spare gazelle
Trump won…
gray wadi
I dont think anyone predicted correctly
welp whoes ready for tons of tarriffs that are just going to quadruple our debt
but we dont know who won the house
hard hearth
America embraces fascism timeline
gray wadi
🦅 🇺🇸 💥
craggy dagger
but we dont know who won the house
it’s red all the way down
gray wadi
it’s red all the way down
Ik that some states are still counting
but i wouldnt be suprised if ur right
dapper pond
We’re not gonna know for a couple days about the house probably. It’s not guaranteed to be R majority but yeah probably
green swift
Guys Trump is now the president idk what to think bout it
gray wadi
chat it’s all republican
neat herald
Did GOP win the house
shy belfry
chat it’s all republican
this is like the worst possible outcome
dreamy sparrow
America embraces fascism timeline
brother
you really think trump is that much of a fascist?
He's a good president and a lot of the things that are spread around about him is propaganda
it's not rocket science to look further than mainstream media to find a sound conclusion on who he is
maybe for seriously intellectually challenged it is difficult to do your own research?
hard hearth
Okay rage baiter
Calling people that are genuinely RIGHTFULLY concerned about a textbook narcissist that mounted an insurrection "intellectually challenged" is insensitive as fuck but theres clearly no use trying to reason with you because you trumpers are all the fucking same
shy belfry
brother
lmao he left
good riddance
rage baiters in this server remind me of the original trollface comic
hard hearth
lmao he left
thanks for letting me know
He can go be an idiot in the MAGA server or whatever idfk
Fuck that guy
shy belfry
why are there so many mediocre rage baiters lately
karmic grotto
guys here's my prediction
shy belfry
he just did
dapper pond
This thread will now close
hard hearth
Guys here's my prediction
in about a week from now Thanos comes in with the reality stone and changes this
dapper pond
There is another election thread if people wanna say stuff about it still
open prism
