#Gear Progression Chart
1 messages · Page 7 of 1
Like 35 hours?
getting 1 wave 8 kc is easier then getting 1 inferno kc
i honestly think the biggest brick wall to this early doom rush is lack of coffer gp lol
99% of players trying this will get fucked
Also if all this early early mohka is assuming you are going to lose a fair few upgrades and push 93 range/ glory/ rune arrows/ eagle or dead eye, and then the expected time to complete is 20 or so hours with pushing multiple waves post 9+. With those waves being fairly difficult.
It probably is a bit disingenuous to route it this way, if the assumption is “skill level is inferno needs rigour”
its like 15k per death with void
Void angle will not have a very expensive death cost
tbh even 15k is prob too much but ye ur right u can lower it quite a bit since u dont have any gear
When I started my death fees were like 2.5k, it's basically nothing with void + downgrading demonbane switches
when your gear is scobow + void and that's your only synapse, what are death fees
Fair, i could see you assuming wave 7 reset strats (~35 hours to completion)
inferno and quiver are somewhat special cases that are unique in true skill-gated and notoriously difficult
the "downgrades" actually benefit punish dps so your kill times aren't completely gimped. It also heals you if you get kills with chally and clears acid - i'd say that's worth considering since you're not getting those benefits with bis ranged gear
while the base loot is trash you would get alot more of it by doing wave 7 resets also; might be relevant
realistically I'd say "do mokha after quiver" because you should grind deep delves
haven't ran mokhiatl myself, but the items seem reasonably more accessible skill-wise than both of the aforementioned big ones?
and you'll be able to do that after quiver
Not a terrible take tbh
if you're not able to do inferno & quiver, probably don't grind mokha
you should at that point be doing slayer, skilling, etc.
mokha locking yourself for 1-7 resets instead of other more traditional routes doesn't save you time
doing mokha when you can do deep delves will save you 10+ hours
as previously mentioned base treads are equivalent of fury>anguish literally everywhere you range(and during slayer you use fbow quite a bit until hydra)
We really need a new god gamer ladlor chart
unironically true would be interesting
they just nerfed a bunch of stuff
Land I think the assumption for the guide is that the “ladlor player” can do tier 1 prep cg and can do or learn inferno with rigour.
Which is pretty hard metric to quantify
i really don't think its harder then inferno post nerf
I think wave 8 is more difficult than inferno+colo except the very worst spawns tbh, especially if youre getting orb phase on every kc
Inferno and colo feel omega easier than w8
eliminating subjectiveness even when accomodating for infinite skill or whatever is gonna be a tricky math problem lol
Its a shorter fight so its easier to luck into kills, but getting consistent at it is really tough
This isn’t true. Fury to anguish is +5 range str, base treads is +2
they just nerfed a bunch of the hard stuff in W8
try again post nerf imo and review
the reg loot is pretty mediocre tho right? so trying wave 8 is kind of no penalty...?
That’s fair
melee punish 0 tick is huge, less b2b2b2b2b rocks is huge, clear acid with orb is huge
big grub instead of 3 grubs is huge
fight is alot easier now
I think that Inferno & Colo being done once with all of the gear, prayer restore pots, etc. and guides now looks so mcuh more realistic
Also another metric is that the guide aims players to be able to complete elite ca pretty early, and finish up at a master ca level pre Nex and ToB
my bad, should have double checked numbers. it's +2str +15 accuracy as opposed to +5str +5 accuracy
I think you were meaning torture and boots comparison
so we are reviewing the opportunity to delay doom until post rigour?
so we think its fair to assume that would save 10+ hours?
elite CA has been pruned a little bit from the guide to help it stay more focused
eg being able to send wave 12+ vs 7 resets
only direct pvm/slayer benefitting ones have been kept
Yeah was just trying to place a general pvm skill level of where you want the guide to land
elite cas benefit slayer a lot dont they
i thought the point of elite ca's was for heart which is a slayer drop?
less, but i'd still say its a big benefit, though i get that its weird that its not framed as "go get them" but "have them by now" kind of
elite is also quite easy to get i think?
yeah i think i maybe spent a week going to do random CAs slowly and it was pretty painless, ig depends on experience perhaps but its not challenging
so delve 7 has about ~30hrs grind for the items
That’s pretty quick wow
all
Hmm
its without
no just one
I assume that kills are also slower
in current apartment situation this is murdering my back to stay commited so long
am i misunderstanding the chart? isnt it 30-40 hours to get all three items?
I read it the saw way Bunu
you see three graphs
I also don't get how we keep saying 30 hrs time to completion is super short for bis and inferno & quiver are where they are cause skill based content
each item is considered in isolation
there is some fucky expected value math required if you want expected kc for all three
that's one of the things that I am confused by
i am not confident in doing it rn
thats 7 delves assumption
if you do 10 it becomes 20 lol
not exact numbers mind you, just parsed off graph
and on shaky time assumptions too
delve 7 is 50% worse roughly then doing delve 10 resets?
the point is to illustrate the grind is not particularily long
delve 10 reset is extra 3 delves per "slog" waves bulk
i see it checking out
diminishing returns pile up fast way past 10 tho
ye i think ill definitely push now with scobo boss also seems alot easier now to
i think people are sleeping on how impactful the nerfs are going to be
alot of the bullshit is fixed
nerfs as in buffs to players?
boss is easier
i thought this was gona be as fast as yama but its even faster
yeah im not a stats boy but i cant wrap my head around this. if each item is 30 hours to rate, wouldnt all three items be at least close to 30 hours for rate?
like 5-6 different changes that will make 8+ alot easier
consider a box with a red, blue, and green ball.
consider you pull out one ball at a time, put it back, shake it up, and pull one out again.
whats the likelihood you pull out one of each?
1/9
0 tick punish, triple grub into 1 big one, orb clears acid, no melee grub other then shield, less rock attacks and im probs missing other stuff
so in 8/9 times you pull out a ball three times, it wasnt finished close to rate
the math is more annoying than i can pull out of my ass rn, but deffo assume that its significantly more than 30 hrs if each item is 30 hrs on their own
is there a gear upgrade reason to not do yama to completion
I was reading stuff about synapse from a couple days ago but I've gotten 6 synapse in like 600 kc, not on purpose lol so I can just send doom?
At the vile transference step? Its the str gear from slayer + infernal cape, it adds a decent number of max hits
ok. one conservative bet would be:
very conservative one, arguing the items are not high impact before the scroll pair grind at cox
and delaying until post-bp by established sequencing
no ancient shard re-allocation concerns
loses out on ayak for early fang and lb grind, with a common sense argument saying that magic just isn't very big for that grind anyways
benefits from vile transference even
Seems weird to grind out fang only to immediately replace it with a drop from a boss that doesn't need the fang
(magic fang)
good point
Also hydra before treads? Does hydra help at doom?
bp does
there is no cross-interaction between hydra and bp, aswell as hydra and mokhiatl
could possibly bundle hydra and mokhiatl to make it clear that there is no cross-interaction between the two
None of the Ayak drops are sped up by the 8 items before them besides blowpipe. Is it strictly here because of blowpipe?
while introducing the risk of misunderstanding of cross-interaction between bp and hydra
yes
having bp for mokha is nice
shows my thoughts
afaik blowpipe is there because post-occult
only downside to these changes is losing occ for blowpipe
good shout on trident elim
Would have to calc the expected time save of getting blowpipe with eye drops vs time save Blowpipe gives us at doom.
But the calc for the latter portion is very tough considering you have to consider not only the increased dps, but the increased chance to skip the 2nd earthen shield.
the blowpipe post occult could be an artifact
Do you even mage for zulrah?
You saying we might just skip zulrah all together until later upgrades?
I don’t think that’s it
another consideration
leave the eye/gloves where they are, and move the boots forward
that would cut down the expected time to completion by a chunk
no, it might be unnaturally late in prog
Ah okay
Coupon collector
u guys think they will adjust rates maybe?
Just from previous experience/napkin math, coupon collector would mean like 60-80 hours for all 3 no? Assuming the 30 hour mark from before.
No coupon collector will make it some value above 30 , not by a terrible amount though
I doubt they will nerf rates
All 3 are 1/720 right? Assuming people grind to wave 7?
they have had 2 weeks to look at data if they wanted to make a change and its not like yama where players were about to kill it like 40% faster then they expected
ye thats fair
doing Yama at vile transferrance step I think would take longer without Rancour, Hydra (and Inferno), but it seems like it gets a lot of melee exp done imo
obviously combats go post-99 either way
cumulative unique chance is 1/65 at wave 7
but that to me feels like a really good place to basically knock out getting pretty much bis gear and a lot of training
hmm
before slayer
I like that placement. And the earlier blowpipe makes sense.
think doing after deadeye to makes sense so u have it for toa as well then
Each unique is 1/720 and there are 3 of them or am I missing something?
i like bp for mokha but idt its that crazy
for w7 only yes, but you get unique rolls on earlier waves, hence the word cumulative
read the chart I linked just above, has all the detail you want
while we're at it, is early fang near fully dead?
ye bruh was saying it might be dead after metal dragon block
we'll see how slayer changes go live
wait and see imo
but lb still worth staying for
With the intro of oathplate, would you think it's ever considered to lance skip with scythe.
I'm personally gonna go for it cause I love tob and already got feros, but feros are half the rate of lance. Tob isn't really sped up much at all from the upgrades after quiver.
i think the wdr boys argue that non elite void melee is scythe tech
not sure though
I mean early fang is nice for vorkath tasks
Don't trust wdr with anything about meta tob
thats about it?
I see so it’s 179 193 and 214 effective drop rates per kill after the cumulative effect
fair enough, but hwy not
Can run it through the coupon collector for expected number of total kills
How long does it take to do a wave 7 run?
And can you only get 1 unique max
Per kill ?
per wave
yup
Took them almost a year of convincing just to not ban dual hitting weapons for nylos, and they still recommend 3t weapons over them.
ah
these were sourced from discord yappers
Okay so nearly 10 mins to do a wave 7 run
consider them a bit unreliable tbh lol
6 runs an hour
Sourced from me :( the yapper
Would you be able to rerun that scobo graph with like 95 or 100 for 9+?
Boss reduces health by 50 after 8 so you are more likely to skip and have to do less damage.
oh right hehe
then u can give the best estimate of confidence in em
95s
They are meant to be averages, but the early waves depend a lot on chally punishes. 2-3 chally punishes at wave 1-2 make your kill closer to 40 seconds, while if you get none you can get a kill around 1:15 - 1:20
yeah i think your time on easier waves is scuffed
100s
just a random time from a Reynold vid:
95s seems fair because 50 hp off the boss itself is like 4-5 second TTK reduction itself. The increased chance to skip is hard to measure but 5 seconds seems fair
Keep in mind those are also scobo numbers not tbowers.
oh fair
ppl were talking about rune arrows deadeye so very different
So do you roll after every wave? Or does it take the cumulative rate once you “cash-in” then roll? Still confused whether you could get more than 1 unique per kill theoretically or not
Interesting doesn't change it much, but does show more value in delving deeper consistently
ive seen ppl get more then 1 unique i think in a kill
idk how it works might be wrong
i think there was a mod post that said it rolls the unique table, then the relevant unique after
You only get 1 unique roll per boss kill.
my understanding is 1 unique per kill
but you could get multiple uniques in a full delve
No double uniques from a single delve level. But if you keep delving you can
so yeah obi, you roll every wave
hmm ye i dont think anyone would ever do that though
Oh shit that’s over my head. Not sure how to calc
I think you'd ignore that possibility. Because no one is doing it realistically unless you are going for record.
just pick n (n=the number of waves per delve); then use the cumulative drop rate and calc like any other boss
Personally I hated bp for car phase, might be skill issue but the low range felt bad to use
You have to do part of the car park tech to get enough Blowpipe uptime
ye u have to use car park ^
Without it's very hard
Could be the reason then, I just yolod
And even with car park for first stomp I find myself having to switch to scobo sometime after 2nd car vroom and before 3rd stomp.
ive heard the spec is really good to
So is 6 kills/hr sound right for wave 7 runs?
ye im thinking of running lb instead
Yeah I switched back to lb after getting good at using BP
5-6 yeah, its a long run back when banking
with changes they made/rates think everyone should aim to do 9-10
might be hard pre rigour but it seems worth it to stop doing wave 7
Most definitely. Even the difference between non rigour and rigour is minor compared to tbow and scobo
Wave 7 resets is reasonable as an assumption for the guide. If you can delve deeper with the gear it’s kind of a bonus time save.
I know people arent going to want to hear this, but purging staff + fire surge is comparable (but slightly worse) than swamp trident at zulrah
Is bp spec better than tbow with non dragon/Ammy darts?
at the end of the day its not like delaying to rigour is going to be the difference between wave 7 reesets and wave 12s
So early pipe is a pretty reasonable ask as in the revised chart above
including loss of thralls/veng?
Yes
Swamp trident still wins, especially with sbs, but purging staff is really decent
the biggest choice imo is to split up eye/gloves away from boots and leave them until post hydra (just before cox prayers)
I think its better than sea trident but I havent actually calced that so i dont really want to Yao about that
With effective drop rates of 1/179 , 1/193, and 1/214 for the 3 uniques on a wave 7 run, I’m getting expected KC of 372 to get all 3 drops which 5-6 kills an hour is 62-75 hours total. Where did the 30 hour completion estimate come from?
Oh
Did you get similar result?
i didnt do the coupon collector thing there
i see now it wouldnt be so hard to do
ok i need a break from all of this, i will be back later today
This assumes it’s valid to use the cumulative probabilities which maybe it is? I haven’t wrapped my head around how it works by wave
I heard coupon collector was you need to get the item roll 5.5 times on average so 62 - 75 seems reasonable considering the 30
the model is pretty much:
delve 1, p is just droprates
delve 2, p is droprate of prev delve + droprate of current delve times 1 minus prev delve, i.e. p2*(1-p1) + p1
And then it rolls at end based on whatever your final drop rate is?
delve3 is p1 + (p1-1)p2 + p3((p1-1)p2 - 1)
its the probability that the drop is obtained by delve n
cumulative p_n that is
Yeah
ok i got sucked back into this a bit, now im having my break
So it rolls the cumulative probability once you cash in. Or no it rolls each wave. Should still be able to use the effect probability to calc though, I think?
Okay bye 😂
I'm no stats guy, so this might be gibberish, but couldn't claiming an early unique be handled by adding something to your cumulative roll to subtract the odds of getting an early unique from your end result?
So it would add a minor amount of time increase at the end of the day because you stop assuming you keep running to wave 7 or X when you get a wave 3 unique.
This one doesn't either? This is the curve per item, not completion
Isn't the staff particularly bad at toa. Anywhere else it might make sense, but not toa
I thought the opposite. The staff is particularly good at TOA due to salts, you just only use it in 2 rooms is the issue
Ayak is quite a lot weaker than bowfa on wardens afaik
P2, what's the other one?
You don't use it at akkha if you butterfly
afaik its better
Or do you?
dunno if those calcs are with good mage gear
maybe that swings it
but with good mage gear for sure its better than bowfa
I ran p3 calcs the other day and it was considerably weaker until I smuggled in two virtus pieces and a mage hat swap
Could you link your calc?
could be ancestral carrying it
Oh we're doing full anc and occult before low level toa
yeah its not for low level toa
The high tier mage gear doesnt just carry eye, it's basically mandatory. No anc and no virtus means the wand isn't good at all
i havent done any calcs either and didnt see any using bloodbark
And if you need anc/virtus anyway, no point rushing eye
That's what I ran, it was around 20% under bowfa on p3
99 mage, titans prayer, bloodbark, glory, conf gaunts. No spec for either eye or bowfa
Mage book
Ma2 cape
No boots or ring
realistically if we are getting eye and gauntlets just get boots too
they are the same drop rate
did you calc for akkha also? bofa vs eye?
I didn't
but yeah it probably isnt great without good mage gear
have u done more recent estimations on whether fang is even worth it early on with all the new mandatory slayer grinds
Btw there's also ambiguity on how the conf gaunts work, same as with fang pre release
This is bait, toa is more for ring these days
i was a little unsure on if the fang already is dead for slayer or not
does ring speed up slayer by any decent margin
it seems you very much think it is bruh?
just for chally specs?
With gearscape I'm getting eye as ~10% better than bofa on akkha (boss, not the shadow)
Dunno if their calcs are right but might be worth plugging it in with your setup to review
Idt it's dead, just not the main reason for early toa
Monkey room for a couple seconds of time save lol.
5 ticks to be exact ^
if people do afk melees at nmz then i think lb is probably not worth early on either then but then u get into all the what if scenarios
I don't trust gearscape but I'll run some calcs when I'm home
maybe i move fang just strictly pre-scrolls then somewhere, or maybe even after if its not really that important anymore
Fwiw I think they did implement eye correctly but I'll still rather check independently
i've lost my overview of where fang is used tbh
But I don't see the extra switches needed to make eye better than Bofa being enough of a difference that you wouldn't just pump invo instead with minimal mage switches.
cox, tob and toa
What gear did you use Matt?
metal dragons still? but thats dying out?
i almost feel like u can just go and finish slayer/infernal/scrolls/yama and wahtever before doing any toa nowadays
only place lb might feel useful is cox
at that point
New gloves/boots, anc hat and blue moon top/bottom. Blue moon bottom is your melee legs and can bring melee top still.
this is just based on vibes and how much xp stuff like tds and araxxor are giving tho
Idt plugging anc hat is great
I was just calcing my setup and I spooned anc hat early
But even with all that I didn't feel like the speed up in time was worth the lost inventory space that could have been used for pushing invo higher
i think eye spec is very practical to account for tbh at some places i think its a notable buff as well
I think the spec is good but difficult to calculate, so for now I've ignored both it and bgs
does akkha rapid def regen also apply to magic level?
They’ve said that magic def bonus won’t regen, but idk if that’s been tested in-game
If you miss, does conf gaunts buff accuracy if you spec next?
I would think so but idk
would akkha be a good npc to test for that, how rapid is it
the spec already rolls double accuracy so confliction gauntlets working on or not would be marginal
interesting, that would lessen the gap between low and high end gear, as you will still be pretty accurate
i dont have a good understanding of toas specific scaling to know how impactful it is
Bruh could you also check Eye vs bofa at Obelisk? make sure you factor in spec, I have eye winning there also
I don’t think that’s true unless you’re assuming eye spec but not BGS
considering this
if fang already died a bit, can delay it until scrolls grind, but post eye as a bit of a minmax thing
I got 9.56 (eye) vs 9.32 (bofa), its close enough to look at imo, assumes 40 BGS and 57 eye
what it doesn't consider is the actual dps of performing the specs (eg the 12 ticks you lose to throw up 2 BGS)
anyhow all Mokh uniques pre scroll-pair grind to signify to get them before that step in particular
400
Those numbers look very high for 400 RL
which i suspect would favour the eye
please feel free to verify, I have made mistakes before 🙂
Are you calcing in max or something?
ahrims, avernic (max), barrows, conflict
Prayers?
idk standard stuff you would expect to see (except maby ahrims i guess?)
cox prayers
I think most of the discussion here is assuming you don’t have a lot of mage gear or cox prayers
once again, coulda made a mistake, just a prompt for people smarter then me to verify
i would like if ppl here especially weighed in on fang delayed until the cox scroll-pair grind
i think no cox prayers helps eye but let me check
even then it probably used to be more important at tekton than it currently is
yeah the gap widens in eyes favour if you take out cox prayers
Wouldn’t fang pre lance be better? Or do people get enough melee xp now?
oh pre lance, i forgot that one
honestly one important part im missing nearly always is how much xp comes from various grinds
Yama gives a ton of melee xp, fwiw. So youll probably finish 99 melees whenever you get to that
I think the bigger issue would be assuming things like occult, maxed treads, and ward, if we’re talking about early toa
If melee xp is no longer a factor, and shards are, do you barrage nechs always now?
i mean if you delay fang until just before hydra you will have that stuff (fair on the ward)
I have never once left the barrage train
Except recently on the HC 
i was a barrager at every opportunity too bcs i nmzed melee
What’s your logic is delaying fang if you lay it all out concisely
if anything, if you don't get rangers ever that would only help eye even more because you would slot eternals in
I’m getting the opposite result when I swap to RT prayers. Or are you comparing to EE/MM?
barely sees usage during slayer, less early toa in favor of more toa with available upgrades
i used ee/mm
ill be honest, im a bit confused because i see fang early called bait, but im not sure why, it seems nothing changed just yet
Ah ok
oh and the melee exp at hydra
but fair to assume rt prayers
that would be the make or break for relatively early fang right
How if at all does the upcoming grouping of dragon and metal dragon tasks affect the fang for slayer?
wasn't the other factor dragons being consolidated and them losing stab defence (benefiting hasta more compared to fang)?
I think we're kind of saying:
- between 80 and 95 slayer nothing happens
- at the end of that you probably want lb + fang + scobow + emberlight + 4 zenytes + eye + conf gaunts
- some of these help slayer, others, not so much. So put the ones that help with slayer first.
- delay other pvm to post 95 as much as possible
You’ll 100% get tons of Redditors asking why you want shitty LB early but not gigachad fang (to fang bloodvelds and gargoyles)
Fewer good dragons, more good demons in slayer
98 agi is the gift that keeps on giving
98 agi kills me internally ngl
it 100% is absurd
but very warranted for what it argues
Don't make me grab the link
Right now, I’m technically at the fang step in the progression, but I think I’m going to skip it for now
Lightbearer is pretty cracked though
Luckily, I did get one of those
Depending on spec weapon it even beats bring on melee tasks
Chally stonks have been going through the roof
Was meaning to ask that specific question the other day where it would likely be used if you’re following the chart
Lightbearer chally for barrage tasks 🔥
(what is the consensus on training on controlled?)
I think its bad
afaik sometimes loses a maxhit, and def xp is not valued through melee
Like hasta?
so ignore?
The weapon is usually more important than the style
was gonna compute some hp exp from certain grinds, and there is the 1.3 times hitpoints dealt in each three melee skills quirk
with controlled
But all else equal you'd like to not get def xp
aggressive has the 4x in str
? It's just 1.33 hp xp per damage dealt, right
Controlled just splits melee xp
oh i heard the quirk that controlled melee xp contributions was greater than them individually
seems no, maybe this is an old rumor that was never true
Are you thinking of defensive casting
Is there any reason to be doing hydra before delve? I guess fero gloves for the +2 str bonus if you bring a switch for punish?
the logic of ayak post-hydra is to have it just pre-scrolls
Don’t treads help at hydra
none of the items really benefit slayer, except boots maybe
im maybe a bit aggressively pessimistic about how much the treads really are an upgrade lol
i.e. not by much
Theres a small argument for cerb before mokha, since pegs can give a max if you get avernic treads first. But otherwise I think those three steps are interchangeable
If you have prims do you get a max with upgraded treads for hydra?
Surely that’s better than feros for doom. Granted that’s a small upgrade
I mean the boots are an upgrade and there doesn't appear to be any downside to getting them after you get BP?
Also idk if the treads helping barrage slayer is relevant post cerb but that could be a consideration
i mean is there any reason not to pull it forward though?
With the gloves obviously
so if there is a benefit to doing so, however small, wouldn't you do it, if not just for consistencies sake
Only reason I’m seeing is fero gloves swap
Base treads + gloves is 3% magic damage. Isn't that almost always going to be a barrage max hit?
You’d have to be bracelet flicking for the gauntlets to matter
Damn slaughters right
I feel like bracelet flicking is in the same realm of manual casting barrage tasks.
its arbitrary sure, but i draw a line at slaughter flicks lol
gauntlets give some good mdmg to same with threads
nvm im ie
hmm i do see there seems to be little reason to not let slayer benefit from the treads actually
oh ye i forgot slaughter flicking nvm
ye ill move the treads pre-bp sure
I think it depends on whether you have mystic vigour
BP is used at doom, so there is a trade-off there
Oh you said maxed treads
i think post bp is no brainer, pre-bp + upgraded deaths charge is a more difficult decision
What’s the gear assumption otherwise @opal dagger ?
The question I’m trying to answer is there a reason to delay boots post cerb for slayer. If the eternals matter in this context
So the gear would be regular slayer gear. Bloodbark mage book ancient sceptre
Mystic vigor
No occult, right?
I’m wondering if there’s a breakpoint that treads give. Upgraded or otherwise
Assuming you get eternal crystal before 93 ye
Another major point of feedback is possibly moving shadow to post cox
if they nerf shadow id agree with that
i think shadow still insane for alot of rooms in chambers even if its not to strong on olm anymore
Yeah I’m not seeing a max hit from maxed treads in that with MV
Sweet. Does occult change anything?
Not if you’re comparing against eternal
Re:Fang someone said it was good for hydra?
Fair enough. Seems like treads don’t really help you for barrage slayer then unless it’s pre hydra
question is, is it good enough to outweigh using eye + anc + tbow in toa. Eye would be better on vanguards due to smaller hits i would imagine; so the use cases wouldn't be that extensive
Arguably you don’t do those rooms at all and run 3+12s
idk maby this is cope and im just sick of grinding toa for that stupid staff
requesting a sanity check on if i computed this expected kc for finishing araxxor correctly
#1229571283428053002 message
i havint looked into calcs but u cant use it at vesp or mage vang like shadow prob alot worse shamans mystics to
my calc says 900kc at araxxor is 6.15mil melee xp (no hitpoints), that seems much also
That's not right because the pommel pieces are sequential, thus lower variance
we dont have a closed formula for that kind of situation
oh, so the logic of three 1/200's is not 600?
yeah
dang
on average 3x 1/200 is as fast as 1/600, but the variance is lower
its a kind of dry and spoon protection
so it combines differently with other drops
so even if the expected val is the same, the variance is different, and it impacts how the nally and fang "combines" in expected val?
yes
think of an extreme case: nhally guaranteed at 600kc exactly, no sooner, no later
now the expected kc of getting both is... 601
wait thats not right
hmmm
this is rough
but its well under 900 now
since you're basically just going for the fang, and if you got it before 600, finishing that one
ok. this might not be a trivial coupon collector situation anymore?
correct, it is not
ok, so id need to simulate this then probably
yeah
alright, good to know
ill make a mental note of this deceptive problem
lol wtf
624.76kc with 1 mil trials
that sounds wrong
hmm ye
are you sure you're checking that the 1/200 has been rolled thrice?
import random
def araxxor_uniques_no_pet():
n_nally_pieces = 0
n_fangs = 0
kc = 0
while n_nally_pieces < 3 or n_fangs < 1:
kc += 1
if random.random() < 1 / 200:
n_nally_pieces += 1
if random.random() < 1 / 200:
n_fangs += 1
return kc
N = 1000000
cum_kcs = 0
for i in range(N):
cum_kcs += araxxor_uniques_no_pet()
print(print(cum_kcs / N))
you need that while statement to have an and, not an or
no wait
ignore me
but the roll for fang isnt 1/200
oh i see
its 1/600, and mutually exclusive with the 1/200 from nhally
true
gotta check if one variable is:
- below 1/200
- between 1/200 and 1/200+1/600
- above that
im struggling a bit with the logic as to why, except ensure only on success possible per trial
It’s the same as rolling the unique table at 1/150, then rolling a 1/4 to see if you got the fang
expected 853kc
with using this:
def araxxor_uniques_no_pet():
n_nally_pieces = 0
n_fangs = 0
kc = 0
while n_nally_pieces < 3 or n_fangs < 1:
kc += 1
if random.random() < 1 / 150:
if random.random() < 1 / 4:
n_fangs += 1
else:
n_nally_pieces += 1
return kc
im not fully convinced the loop condition is fully correct so im gonna have another look
looks good to me
right
worth getting 92 mining before this boss?
i think that doing blowpipe with bowfa only instead of with eye and/or nox hally feels a bit off
also with the bossing, voidwaker can go later I think
ngl its impressive to watch you guys logic this out.
requesting a sanity check on this one @hybrid blaze , seems good?
2 synapses and 2 claws
one thing I will say about this boss is that if you're not good enough to do it early it's not nearly as bad a problem as if you're not able to do cg. you can still do all the same things with cerb boots/torm/trident really, it's just a bit slower
No because you arent rolling for the first and second claw, or first and second synapse, at the same time
in situations where you want to hit a drop more than once its not coupon collector
oh shoot
anything that requires pieces or parts or w/e is right out
how does the burning claw roll work
i see it has the rarity of 1/500 and the description is confusing
oh, roll the 1/500 and then 499/500x roll for 1/500 again
described in a blog post as such
so similar simulation to what you've got for araxxor ig
using expected vals for completing araxxor, yama, vet'ion, spindel, and TD's is 24m melee xp
(in attack and/or strength specifically)
There is actually a closed solution to this problem. The hally pieces are one binomial distribution with p1=1/200 and the fang is another binomial with p2=1/600. If we want to compute the probability of seeing at least 3 hally pieces AND at least 1 fang in n trials we can instead compute the probability of seeing less than 3 and less than 1. This works out to be
1 - sum_{k_1=0}^2 (n choose k_1)*p_1^{k_1}*(1-p_1)^{n-k_1} - (1-p2)^n + sum_{k_1=0}^2(n choose k_1)*(1-p_1-p_2)^{n-k_1}
I solved this with scipy and here is the result:
The expected number of kills to complete is 733
Please correct if wrong 🙂
oh, eye of ayak setup is 20% more dps than bowfa setup for serp phase at zulrah
and 226% at magma
with using these first phases i averaged the dps increase with eye and got 164%, defaulting to bowfa for tanzanite
ayak big for zul, now the question is if bp can somehow be bigger for eye of ayak
also excluding confliction gauntlets even
ok used a setup with wrong magic prayer so the diff should be slightly bigger:
https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=HellhoundMurderAstronomy
~5 hours timesave having ayak for zulrah
Related content for Zulrah: https://youtu.be/LsKxLnR9q-k?si=NbB6242uJ76_jg2h
0:00 starting phase
0:21 green phase
1:00 tanz phase
1:12 melee phase
1:19 pillar stalling refresher
1:43 western green (melee phase)
2:14 south green (melee phase)
Edit: On the melee phase south green after the initial stalling, you could replace 3 of the shadow hits with 5x wand hits if you don't mind counting. Alternatively you could just cam...
the expected value is not the line where this crosses 50%
you can compute the expected value from here as a sum over the weighed differences of these probabilities, but I dont think there's a computational benefit compared to simulation. It'd be an integral form
Hi, newish ironman(came back after long break) have 1475 total. Is the torso/granite top still ideal? I keep seeing it recommended to just do moons instead.
Moons isnt on the list because its not efficient to get
torso is great, granite body is only for b ring but at your total level you might already have that
you do need to get a granite body at some stage as its a task, but you can just alch it immediately after
Thanks, dont have bring yet, havent touched rex. Might evaluate if efficient is what I want to do or not 😅
B ring ASAP is a good idea regardless
Just a really good upgrade with low gear/stat reqs
some frame of reference can always be nice
ok so i had a chat over in the mokhiaotl chat, and it seems bp is for sure more of an obstacle than a accessible way to speed it up. i.e. speedrun tech
this frees up the constraint i imagined it was
which opens up the possibility again of ayak rush
or well, after scobo of course
im definitely moving in circles lol but learning a lot today
im still not sure what ayak actually does
One small progression chart
you need at least occult for it to make sense, right
and even then theres nothing you wanna do before lance?
pretty much
if I just say "all this is post-konar content" what am I missing out on
for that + gloves
it's not a rush if it's best after 97 slayer
the boots lol
so its a boots rush, and screw eye
boots are good early and get upgraded with cerb
still seems like we dont wanna pay too high a price for them
if a scobo is all thats needed, then with the revelation that araxxor, yama, vet'ion, spindel, and TDs shit out 24mil xp, maybe that frees up some ancient shards for a little scobo pivot
but then again, the only win is marginal gains on toa
yes early boots and delayed everything else seems good
It definitely still speeds up mokha to some extent, but the speedup depends on your skill level. The speedrun tech I wouldn't consider for efficient gear progression, but it may be worth mathing out the DPS difference of scobo vs blowpipe during car phase, expected HP dealt during car phase (60-70%) and how much expected blowpipe uptime you can manage. (I'd say conservatively at least 50% for someone with the ability to clear delve 8)
It's a harder math problem than that though, because the extra DPS might mean you skip a 2nd shield phase and the earthen shield.
there's enough shards by 97 slayer
the question is why you want to go earlier, and how much you're willing to give up for that
im really not seeing the payoff
in fact, I think you can have the demonbane stuff and zenytes sorted by like high 80s, maybe 91 slayer
relatable lmao.
I just dont get yet why we're compromising lower level training methods to get mokha in by like 80-85 slayer
oh that reminds me I wanted to check eye vs bowfa at toa again
Isn’t it to show why the post 97 slayer is a good spot for it?
mokha between 91-97 slayer seems good to me. demonbane rush seems bad to me. I'm trying to figure out if I'm missing something
the demonbane rush is maybe less constrained with extra shards if accepting extra melee xp from all the new bosses
i'm nowhere near this point in the game, but could it be an "overhaul" aspect where demonbane rush is better because it enables mokha and yama?
not looking at just one boss, but both?
problem with enabling mokha is that there are not huge wins before going raiding
thats what we've been looking at for days
I just dont see how it could possibly gain
😂 i'm late to the party
even if you do it all, start to finish, then what
back to slayer and you get to show off your boots
huge effort for marginal gains is what we're all about here
ok one angle i see:
scobo smuggle even before torture, score a dps win on zammy and get the boots.
absolutely cooking:
scobo smuggle, dps win zammy, get boots, go inferno, go yama with the emberlight 
If you do it very early, you swap
The two zenytes spot for 1 synapse, that means you;
Get boots then which is the same str upgrade that torture offers
im somewhere between fking around and partially srs atm
i dont intend to change the inferno reasoning i think
Quick wardens p3 comparison, 400rl
bowfa setup: full crystal, avas assembler, anguish, bgloves, no boots, no ring, deadeye, salted, 99 range, 40 bgs spec
eye setup: eye, mage's book, full ahrim, mystic vigour, confliction gaunts, infinity boots, ma2 cape, glory, no ring, salted, 99 mage, 40 eye spec
I get +2% dps for the bowfa setup, after manually adjusting for the confliction gaunts accuracy increase. In addition, I think this many switches for eye in toa is not a great idea (ahrims hood and mage book in particular)
i love the mental image painted here
so much
only works if they know ur an ironman though :c
next up akkha
How does 450 look? I think post changes people will be more likely to push towards 450. I assume higher invo will just benefit Bofa more though.
eye is very strong at akkha, especially with the mage reduction. Using the same setup as above I get that eye is +8% dps over bowfa after 40 eye spec
I think 450 pre fang and at lower combat is really ambitious, im not planning on recommending that
Ah this is for pre fang. Sorry I thought we were seeing for shadow grind
no, this is for fang/lb
Seeing your gear listed I now see that makes no sense for shadow grind
i have things tentatively sequenced as such
i gave fang the boot for not being important enough, unless i am missing something with hydra
i forget if we fanged hydra for the xp, or if it was actually faster than bowfa
I dont know about fang, I need to think about it a bit
yes fang hydra is a lot better than bowfa
Fang is better by quite a bit than Bofa
oh right
should fang be placed after cerb before hyrda then?
Would you use hasta over bowfa
Blowpipe hydra is better, but expensive.
ok adjustment made:
People nox hally hydra?
simply shifted ayak and gloves into fang before lance/fero
also nox hally isnt on the chart
ive been feeling uncertain on putting it there for a long time now. its a cool item imo
Would you not include pegs if you already have treads
owned
im not convinced the +2 strength bonus is even worth it with the treads
+3*
ventator is +2 and gets used practically nowhere
notably that doesnt nescesitate losing access to another ring to be fair
The opportunity cost of losing lightbearer is pretty high
I think it would be inefficient to recommend getting it at same time. Like yeah a good portion are expected to get it on the way to rancour, but if you are 1/3 or 0/3 surely there's no world where you sit for hally after getting rancour.
i suppose the boots could benefit bp for "free"
plus we're getting the new rosewood blowpipe soon 
I mean is there a reason to delay it?
lmao
In elite void I think boots might give rune darts a max without having to get quiver.
no
its just a bit like soulflame horn
more seriously though probably pegs dont recoup the 25hr time cost or w/e. Personally I've always had a soft spot for them though, and they do make bis
is it even worth including
But if you have quiver, base boots don't give amethyst or rune dart blowpipe any maxes in elite void
tell you what
how about just putting the maxed treads at current prim and eternal spot
bowfa max is main thing imo
not a terrible idea
You can also go 2/3 on maxing treads with delaying the peg addition
oh the boots are indistinguishable in all forms
Makes sense but idk if the icons are different enough to make that obvious lol
You'd have to keep prims eternals and avernics in the same spot or something
they most definitely are not
O well more dopamine by having more squares to fill in
W new fang placement do we just skip vork and do baby blue drags?
Still get assembler ofc
Having all the icons together advertises that you get treads and upgrade them with X boots
you put the prims, pegs, eternals in like a triangle and then dump the treads over them so it partially covers all three
bonus points for faint illuminati symbol with low alpha value
and then link treads wiki link to max variant
uh ditching the triangle and illuminati thing, one column with 3x boots and then directly into max treads probably works
Surely you wouldn't get pegs?
How big of an upgrade is the pegs upgrade anyway?
Like fine to get the crystal but not gonna spend the 20+ hours on rangers
pegs in avernic treads is like +2 ranged str
Yes
right mb
its +1 range str bonus yeah
I don't recall it giving me a max on any of my ranged setups
i support not including pegasians at all tbh
If there isn’t a reason to delay it, then I don’t see why leaving it there is a problem outside of your soul flame horn point.
I dont think you should include it at all
Because then it advertises that you should stay for peg
the "problem" is the chart says to get pegasians at all, implying its a reasonable thing to grind even if you dont want em
Fair enough
yeah just take it out, im sure if people see 2/3 they can figure out to ask about the third one if interested
Pegs permanently an ornament kit
its very silly lol
Avernic treads (pr)(et) is where it is at
that is a horrible name btw, thanks jagex
The naming/icons for treads are really half baked.
shouldve been some thanos crystals thing
or maybe sandals with a corresponding color to each crystal on the toenails
I liked the Reddit suggestion to have different colors for each combo but jagex decided it was too much dev work.
on par with old mcdonald's salve (ei)(ei)(o)
Tzhaar-(pe) (et)-om
Eye is bis for zulrah afaik
i think if we are still including all of torva we should still include it. also unlike torva theres not much u can get past that point to speed up doing medium clues tbh
that seems reasonable
now that both tridents are ded, maybe tent whip can be next? go araxxor instead or meh
why is da4 so late again?
What is tent whip for
tob
tob
Surely you want da4 for zulrah
Achievement diary cape/ring of elements speeds up mediums a decent amount yeah?
ye but u can get that around same time as pre chambers
i've completely forgotten :S
It just becomes a non item unless +2 to +3 gives you a max hit anywhere with ranged I think.
gives bp max with ddarts
I am assuming its because of some kind of gear for kq?
from the slayer block
Not gonna be spending ddarts anywhere you bp a lot like tob
id take this chart but put da4 before the mokhua step
i like it for mokha and ye its not that practical
oh yes it was probably kq blocked yea
is dwh something you want for kq?
i forgot what item was considered the kq bottleneck
I havent done that grind yet
also doing zulrah with eye before occult is a shit idea
Could be 85 prayer
the mokhua stuff just needs to move like 4-5 arrows to the right
then its solid I think
hmm
oh back to pre fang lol
Fang/blue gem enable kq yeah?
or maybe occult -> eye -> zulrah
blue gem is good yeah, fang not needed, but you can make do with hasta
this is a cost of doing fang late though, I agree
Doesn’t eye help you do cannonless smoke devils
I think it does but you only need one occult neck
occult helps eye more than the other way around for sure
so occult comes before using eye much
alright, how is this?
when you shoot the eye which is magic damage, the occult makes the damage bigger
But you don’t use the eye at mohka outside of hitting grubs. I guess I mean for acquiring it
looks reasonable to me yeah
ah right mb, yeah fair enough. You're saying get eye at 93 slayer but before the first smoke devils task, then use it on the smoke devils task to get occult, then go do other stuff
mokha before rigour? hmm
Right
the staff seems pretty strong, so using it to get pre scroll-pair stuff seems appropriate
this looks about right to me, also lightbearer is still early so maybe blue keris for kq
btw psa dont use thralls at titans
what about yama
A bit late to this convo but treads + pegs give me two maxes in my bowfa setup (quiver, deadeye, no ring)
is that counting for the +3 or the +1?
Prog would have rigour by that point
Regular treads give nothing, the extra +1 is a breakpoint
Oh true I forgot the chart put quiver with first tob pass
with rigour quiver regular threads my max went up to 47 from 46 at bandos
idk how the interaction would work with ovl/salt but id assume it gives a max as well with base threads or full
some have suspected cox and toa sequencing could change with the mokh stuff. i suspect it stays the same
ye im not saying to change that just double wana make sure threads give bowfa max (i believe they do)
You could argue cox uniques are more helpful for toa than vice Versa now
shadow is abhorrently dominant in cox tho
Granted they take longer to get
nukes even the mystics
ull still have to bowfa vasa/muta most likely and olm its not alot when u have shadow but still notable
one greater concern i have at the moment actually is someone flagged that some of the construction and sep sequencing is not synced with BRUHSailer atm
It’s great at cox for sure. Not sure on how the eye and gauntlets change the math at all
theres some group toa where you spec mage level down to 0 with team eyes
probably a meme
that there is some mistake there
Here's what I calced, 44->46 with deadeye
Thinking on it now though, would you even be using ranged pot at this point? It'd mostly be salts/overloads, right?
around the 75cons step right ladlor?
i think so
yeah BRUHsailer has 98 agil in Ch2 but 75 cons start of Ch3
I think the chart does this the other way around
right?
it matters a little because sep funds the cons
oh god 
haha
The gift that keeps on giving
actually wait a second
This little maneuver is going to cost us 500 comments

hmm
Nezzy helm into 98 agi in its own square for max aura
ok, glad to have that sorted then
that is interesting
dammit barely cut it off
would you move infinity boots + ice barrage + mage book earlier as well?
or would they stay at the same place
yeah id put those at the 69 slayer step
actually the ma2 cape step is thematic
doesnt matter either way
I think 69 slayer makes more sense
oh as in more in the theme
mage theme ig
it would look kind of neat
yeah looks good but id put 69 slayer bottom right, you want the mage upgrades before doing slayer
hmm in that case it shouldn't be in the same block right?
if thats the case, maybe it'd be better to put them with the ma2 cape instead then
so that its clear this happens before 69 slayer, not some time during
yeah but ice barrage also is
technically itd be slightly more accurate to have all the pre-slayer stuff before the slayer tile
but im not sure it matters
this one is neat yeah
then ill leave it at that
oh btw
shoot
is the arkan blade in there
is a good spec weapon
better than dds even?
yes it beats dds
basically everywhere
only if you dont get the burn it loses
and even then not always
The accuracy is really nice
yes also heart of darkness 48 slayer req
its in there twice
so probably between 75 cons and that large slayer block
I havent really looked into it yet
would you get 52 rc that early?
it might be viable pre green dragons
The stab for green drags sounds really nice
if you have magic imbue you can just go nuts with it, though there is a slight circular dependency
you want daeyalt for lavas, lavas for rc, rc for arkan, arkan for green dragons, green drags for piety, piety for sotf, sotf req for daeyalt
theres ways out but it takes a few seconds of thought
e.g. lamp to 52, or make do with other sources of low level rc xp
yea i got it mid green dragons but i think that was only from having done some non guide stuff. i think its possible that enough tears of guthix goes to rc to make it work tho, iirc that was the case for @austere valley
tentative placement where that isnt a concern seems ok
so after 75 con then I guess?
yeah, but its a nice stab weapon. Even beats d scim as a mainhand on green drags ive heard
could place the mage stuff in the same block maybe
so idk yet
as that would be for the slayer grind anyway
tentatively putting it after 75 cons is fine imo
it did for me yeah, even on defensive slash for def xp, without even considering the spec
Only problem there is my situation is so unique because of low play time, means more Tears of Guthix than most 
yeah, there will probably be questions to put it earlier. Which makes sense, I just havent run any nrs yet
yeah i dont think you can really count on that lol
can you like
Def not
idk, its good at green dragons if you can get sooner but i think its fine to assume otherwise, its not so good to reroute around it imo
get magic imbue, start dt2, unlock scar, do like 1 hour of p ess mining at 10k/hr, make 10k lavas, bam level 52
or is scar locked behind beating quest levi
i think it might be
Just the puzzles iirc
you just need to start the quest and get to the mine
see now we're cooking with gas
i just realized in these pictures i'm WAY closer to the 98 agility step than i want to be 😂
SOTN is also a dt2 pre req
yeah theres a bunch of combat here im not sure its viable
i dont know if quest boss is doable with elemental weakness, but with like 45 ranged or whatever youre not ranging it i expect
Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.
my suggestion was pretty rushed, I really dont know what to do with arkan blade early. I need to give it some proper thought, not right now
just send as much as you can stomach
i promise i wont come to your house
😃

my gut instinct (being around this point myself) is u probably cant force arkan blade unless you find the rc xp, but moons/heart of darkness is totally doable with at least chivalry
I dont think you need chivalry even but yeah around those stats I think the quests are doable, rc xp is the issue
I think the casual route is low level gotr into these quests, maybe thats even why jagex put the rc req on there
but I think there's gotta be actual solutions
This chart is by far the worst one I’ve seen. The giga sweats that collaborated to make this trash haven’t seen grass in two decades and probably paid for a catheter because walking to the bathroom is xp loss. Gamers will optimize the fun out of anything.
“Suffer through this horribly unfun by hyper optimized chart for a few months then you can finally play the game!”
Chart should be renamed “Ironman Burnout Speedrun Chart Any %”
i do usually love the discussion when i post
I had to post the meme I'm sorry ladlor
its fine but i dont want anyone coming in here with questions and then feeling alienated ideally
Have we landed on a decision for where delve should be
Nezzy into 98 agi is going to be fun to explain
for now we have
move it forward one arrow every update
i picked up this iron after like a 2 year break so i dont actually remember how much low lvl gotr i did to reach this point lol
the redditors have began answering their own comments
Me frantically refreshing chart for 1.4.0 release 
and there are some warriors like s7efen that stay in the trenches
Why is bowfa still in the chart??? 
its not as bad as many people make it out to be imo
atleast when posted in ironscape lol
not so much tolerance in 2007scape
Interesting to get the treads first then complete eye/cloth later
One may easily end up getting it all while chasing treads
then thats a bit nice bonus
The demonbane rush gets there 
I already have cloth now, so I guess I'm in deep
the eye and cloth only really benefit raids and zul
So ladlor, is fang post eye implying that eye would be used over bowfa in ToA for wardens/akkha?
seeing fang finaly moved makes me feel happy
Or is it just because of conflict gaunts?
Does that mean blue Keris goes on the prog with lightbearer for da4 down the line?
Or do you just tough it out
Da4 implies blue keris I'd assume, you'd prob have blue gem if you're farming LB tho
blue keris is a bit nightmarish to me in that it gets useless if you happen to get a fang, so it risks someone getting fang and then still raiding for the blue keris
maybe this is assuming a tad too little agency though
regular keris id imagine is better still no even then fang for kq?
and powering through seems ok
Fair enough
What is eye of ayak used for primarily in ToA?
primarily akkha
Ahka and p2 warden
Not p3? That's still bowfa supremacy?
yes
Cool
For the early toa dip in yeah
as it stands, also for the later toa I think
but either way you have options by getting both
i was gonna put it out tomorrow but here goes
I’m curious if eye tips the scale for tbow before shadow. Both obviously are good but I don’t know the numbers.
(its live!!)
go have fun with your new boxes to click guys
making reddit post tomorrow for the big occasion when im awake to read all the things
thanks for the awesome brainstorming today
🧠
what's the reason for moving fang later in the progression?
so it's just arkan blade for slayer until hasta?
arkan is mainly for spec
dscim until hasta
gotcha, thanks
Fang only not needed post slayer changes im assuming. On that note with slayer changes, potentially makes wildy slayer an option for revs or nah?
why is pharoh's sceptre so late?
also with barrage nechs, etc. if someone can confirm if that solves ancient shards better by 87 slayer, because double death charge probably goes before avernic threads
double death charge at mokha seems like it helps there more than threads at yama
though w/o blowpipe, etc. i'm not sure what the spec weapon is so maybe nevermind?
I think it was chally spec for punish?
Yeah, but I assume spec isn't an issue for just chally
btw the chart still has karamja gloves 4 way before slayer helm
is this intended?
whats wrong with that?
the only task that matters is just dust devils
the points is better spend on other things
it means ur getting almost 90 herb manually making your unfinished potions
slayer helm is required for desert hard diary

True
The only place I'm gonna differ is getting all three delve items at the same time, not just stopping at treads. Great work on the theory crafting tho guys! Appreciate all the hard work
they also put mixology rewards much after slayer helm, so your probably over 90 herb before unlocking those which also seems odd
Odd are a lot of other people will probably get at least one other unique before treads too, so not ultimately a big deal
Wondering if i should do my blue drags task i was saving for after getting fang or just do baby blues now
Thought so, could you also review Obelisk, I had eye ahead by a decent amount there also

