Calculations of rng

[solid crest]

Calculation for getting 4 royal flushes in a row

[civic sun]

I fucked up btw

I need to remake it

Since it's in a row

It cant 3 out of 48

Because we need to pull next three for royal flush

right?

[rustic eagle]

I am pretty sure I got it right, pulling 8 out of 52 is def right, and the top is actually just 4*5!, i.e. 4 times ways to pull a royal flush

And that decreases down the road

[civic sun]

What's 8 out of 52

It should be right for mine fs

[rustic eagle]

First pull

[civic sun]

Because we pull any one card

Out of the five

[rustic eagle]

That is accounted for with 5!, all ways to pull out 5 cards

[civic sun]

And then we multiply by amount of combinations of the rest three no?

[solid crest]

first is 1 in 20 in 52 then the chance should decrease

no?

[civic sun]

No

[rustic eagle]

And there are 4 sets of there 5 cards in the beginning

[civic sun]

You can't pull one in twenty

[solid crest]

u need to pull 1 of the cards

also

@rustic eagle u fucked up

its 25

[civic sun]

I mean you can but that's different way of calculation

[solid crest]

wait no

its 20

xd

[rustic eagle]

Wot lmao

[solid crest]

dont ask

how i got 25

[civic sun]

Can you put my equation in wolfram tho?

[solid crest]

lmfao

[civic sun]

Is it anywhere close to yours

[solid crest]

@civic sun its wrong tho

also it will be way lower

[civic sun]

But just put it in tho

[rustic eagle]

I can't scan it 😭

[solid crest]

@rustic eagle write it

[civic sun]

hdhahdha

[rustic eagle]

Can you type it out, just use (2choose1)

[rustic eagle]

[solid crest]

hold on guys ima go read the newest one piece chapter xd

[rustic eagle]

Are those 4s or 1s

Also you wrote 1 choose 52 the entire way, which is 0, there are 0 ways to pick 52 cards out a pool of 1

n c r, n on top, r at bottom

[solid crest]

lmao

[civic sun]

Wdym

Ill write it in a sec

How do i type it

[rustic eagle]

(52choose1) is fine

Don't forget you can use ctrl c and ctrl v

also you can just do it yourself XD, wolfram alpha is right here

[civic sun]

Dude i am on the phone

Does it support phones

[rustic eagle]

It's a website

It's not mathematica

[civic sun]

Aight

[rustic eagle]

Wolfram alpha is a web service for free lol

[civic sun]

I for some reason thought wolfram is paid

[rustic eagle]

Wolfram Mathematica is

[solid crest]

@rustic eagle how is it going

[rustic eagle]

Not much, just waiting for my man(?) to try their method out

[civic sun]

Uhh so how do i multiply there?

Just *?

So i type 52choose1*51choose1 etc?

@rustic eagle shouldn't it be like that

Maybe i missed sth let me read some theory lmao

[rustic eagle]

Why would that be?

[civic sun]

But I think it should be right

[rustic eagle]

Is this your idea?

[civic sun]

No

[rustic eagle]

Or is your think a single pull

[civic sun]

We can't just choose 20

Since our hand is only 8

[rustic eagle]

You are choosing 23, which is why I am confused

[civic sun]

OH

Shahgdghaha

It should be 18

[rustic eagle]

The nCr method is desired pulls/possible pulls, your total possible pull is getting 23 cards

[civic sun]

Yeye

I fucked up

For some reason we had 5 suits in my calculation

oop

[civic sun]

We can't just 52C20 tho

Our hand is only 8 cards

[rustic eagle]

Yes I know, I thought you were confused and trying to see what you misunderstood

[civic sun]

And my case is counted only for not pulling the rest of needed royal flushes in first hand

[rustic eagle]

Also 23 is right, 8+5+5+5, 15+8 = 23

[civic sun]

Wait

one sec i fkd up

Hdhhahajaka

DUDE STOP CONFUSING ME

you are making me doubt if two + two is four

HAHHAH

OK THIS IS THE FINAL VERSION

four flushes in a row not counting the 3 cards we pull first time

Or should we count like in a row row?

only 20 cards

[rustic eagle]

Can you elaborate on what each number means

[civic sun]

Yeah sure

Below is how many combinations are there to pull 23 total cards

[rustic eagle]

Mhm

[civic sun]

4! is amount of combinations in which we pull our royal flushes

[rustic eagle]

All possible orders to pull 4 royal flushes

[civic sun]

n 32C3 is the three cards we pull first hand that shouldn't be any of the ones needed for the rest of royal flushes

[rustic eagle]

club diamond spade heart
heard club spade diamond, etc

[civic sun]

yes

[rustic eagle]

But you're not timesing it by the chance to actually get one

[solid crest]

@civic sun dont think thats correct
pulling 2 specific cards in a row would be 1/52choose1 x 1/51choose1, no?

[civic sun]

no

[solid crest]

how so

[civic sun]

well it is but isn't it the same as 1/52*1/51

[rustic eagle]

Cause like, this makes no sense to me. You have to guarantee that each hand you pull one royal flush, you have to calculate by hand

[solid crest]

@civic sun whats the chance of triggering wheel of fortune twice in a row?

base chance is 1/4

[civic sun]

1/16

[rustic eagle]

1/4^2

Yeah that

[civic sun]

What is your line of thought for that then

[solid crest]

so yeah

[civic sun]

I don't see why shouldn't it work for me, do you think multiplying by 24 is not needed?

[rustic eagle]

On the first hand, we draw 8 cards, 52c8, of which there are 5! ways to pull a specific royal flush, and there are 4 royal flushes

[solid crest]

why wouldnt it be 1/52* 1/51

[rustic eagle]

And afterwards, we pull 5 more cards, and this time we only have 3 royal flushes left

[rustic eagle]

Diff. equation, same result, clearer

[rustic eagle]

Repeat until yes

[solid crest]

actually first card would be 20/52 then 2nd would be 4/51

[civic sun]

Is the answer different?

[solid crest]

it is

[civic sun]

It seems logical

[rustic eagle]

Congrats you came to my conclusion

[solid crest]

basically

[rustic eagle]

Which just so happens that 20*4*3*2*1 is exactly 4*5!

Because they represent the same thing

(Very simple to see)

[civic sun]

So i just didn't count for first card being any of 20?

[rustic eagle]

Uh and that pulling a huge hand of 23 is different from 8,5,5,5

[civic sun]

N i also fucked up division

Yeah

[rustic eagle]

Because in a choose 23, you could get all aces, which is not a royal flush

[civic sun]

So this?

[solid crest]

no idea how u got such conclusion

[rustic eagle]

That looks really funny, but I'm still not sure what's going on here

Like, what are you calculating

[solid crest]

fr

[civic sun]

zz

[solid crest]

why are u deviding devisions by devisions

[civic sun]

it fucked up the way it showed

[solid crest]

@civic sun still not the answer

[civic sun]

why though

Is 20C1 not the way

[rustic eagle]

Where does it represent getting 4 royal flushes?

[civic sun]

wait i think i got it

Thoughts

No wait

This is surely it

[rustic eagle]

It has been surely it for couple o' min by now

[civic sun]

HAHAHHA

how can the last one be not it tho

any of 20 cards we need is good to pull in first hand as first one

then only 12

Wait it should be 15

This is the one

if it's not it's joever idfk how to do it any other way

[rustic eagle]

Oh and @solid crest I must mention that all this neglects the possibility that the initial 8 cards had parts of the next royal flush. While, again, ofc, it won't change how likely it is by any significant amount, it is just something to consider

[solid crest]

well obvs

otherwise

it would be a hell of a calculation

[civic sun]

@rustic eagle how much did you get?

[rustic eagle]

I'm asking a math teacher for their take. If I can't I'll see if I can grab a professor

[civic sun]

why you don't account for the rest three cards in first hand?

in your equation you can grab the rest of the flush cards no?

[rustic eagle]

Because then it is conditional probability, and the number of branches will explode

We're basically asserting that the first hand's 3 cards don't have any parts of a royal flush

[civic sun]

Yeah

And we need to write it

Thus 32C3

No?

[civic sun]

Also look at your bottom part

You pull 8 cards first hand yet after this you count as of you pulled 5

Shouldnt it be 44Choose5 after 52Choose8 and changing the rest too

[rustic eagle]

Oh that's actually right

Yay

[civic sun]

But yeah asking teacher is op for sure

Wait

I think i got it

But not it's too much...

Basically the difference with your answer is 32Choose3 @rustic eagle

That's what I am counting on for not pulling the rest of flush cards in first hand

But why does it bump up probability

Hm

I see why

Hm

Idk that's my final answer

[solid crest]

did yall come up with a conclusion

[civic sun]

This seems feasible but we are not accounting for not pulling rest of flush cards in 3 cards of first 8

[civic sun]

I don't really get why this is higher probability than yours tho @rustic eagle

It should be lower

math is not mathing

[solid crest]

Calculations of rng

hands and discards used are accounted for.

@rustic eagle

question

about getting stuff in a row of the same suit

why is it calculated like that

[solid crest]

@rustic eagle

[civic sun]

@rustic eagle did you ask your teacher?

about the 5 royal flushes in a row

[solid crest]

my man disappeared

[rustic eagle]

Not really, I just have nothing to say