Poker Hand Odds With Varying Hand Sizes | Balatro | Page 1

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:11 PM

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ye

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graph coming later for straight/flush/full house

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:12 PM

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what about the odds of having 2 separate poker hands in held hand

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:12 PM

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that depends, are you including the really low hands?

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:12 PM

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verbal cedar that depends, are you including the really low hands?

how about they gotta be at least 3 cards

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:12 PM

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So, 6 Card straight is 35123200/20358520% or 1.725%, 8 Card straight is 73252473600/752538150% or 9.7702%

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:13 PM

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and they can't be contained in one another

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:13 PM

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contained completely?

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:13 PM

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young peak how about they gotta be at least 3 cards

Will do after calculating House

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:13 PM

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are you allowed overlap of 2 cards?

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like full house + straight

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A A A 2 2 3 4 5

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:13 PM

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verbal cedar are you allowed overlap of 2 cards?

you can decide the overlap but for now no overlap

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:14 PM

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ok

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that narrows it down a bit since you can't have 9 or 10 cards

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5 card poker hands would require the other hand to be 3oak

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:20 PM

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8-card full house probabillity is 2434524300/752538150% or 3.23508%... I think

worn tundra Jan 25, 2024, 4:21 PM

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What constitutes as an 8 card full house?
A A A 5 5 5 5 5 ?

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:21 PM

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probably

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:21 PM

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no, Chances of getting full house after drawing 8 cards

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:22 PM

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so 8 card draw full house

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:22 PM

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Yes

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6-card full house draw is 4336800/20358520% or 0.213%

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like 500 in 1

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:25 PM

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you mean 1 in 500... right

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:25 PM

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Yes.

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it's kinda hard to miscalculate, because there aren't a lot of possibllities

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:26 PM

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"the probability of a 6-card full house draw is 522365/1263 or about 500 in 1"

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:26 PM

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You can say that, yea

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:27 PM

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i got 1/120 for 6-draw full house

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:27 PM

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weird, I'll check again

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:27 PM

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props to you for attempting to get the exact odds

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it's not easy

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:27 PM

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Oop

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forgot to mult 4 on one part

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:29 PM

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that would do it

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:30 PM

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6-draw full house: 16692000/20358520%or 0.819902%

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:30 PM

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my sim is taking 11.5 minutes per hand size to complete

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:30 PM

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Wow

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:30 PM

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but it is trying to calculate 3 hands at the same time so

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:30 PM

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Okay, let's see who's faster

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:31 PM

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verbal cedar but it is trying to calculate 3 hands at the same time so

What's it calculating?

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:31 PM

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chance of getting straights, flushes, and full houses from X size hand

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no discards/plays

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:31 PM

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And X is?

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If it's a variable, I lose.

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:32 PM

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im changing the hand size every 10 million trials

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going from 5 -> 17

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:32 PM

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I don't think I could do 17 in 11.5 hours lol

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:33 PM

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11.5 minutes

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:33 PM

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I amplified it for humor, and it probably is the truth

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:33 PM

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but that's per hand, so i've got 1.75 hours to go

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:33 PM

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Faster than me, that's for sure

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:33 PM

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maybe 2 full hours

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:34 PM

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the problem is that you'll never know the EXACT chance

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:34 PM

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¯_(ツ)_/¯

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if i really wanted to i could reprogram this to run every possible hand through the checks

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but that would take days :)

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:34 PM

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lol, yeah

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:35 PM

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nevermind it's not possible for 17 hand size

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48 years

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:35 PM

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What's the cap?

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:36 PM

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oh hang on

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:36 PM

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verbal cedar 48 years

2 years

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forgot to divide by 24

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i guess technically doable?

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:36 PM

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Still, two years...

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Balatro woul've released by then

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:36 PM

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yep lol

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:37 PM

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Anyways, I'm currently doing @young peak 's request

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:41 PM

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progress

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i accidentally did 7 twice 😔

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:45 PM

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wow, that's gonna be useful

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Anyway, 228272800/752538150% or 0.0030333% to have 2 poker hands that do not overlap each other and are/above 3 cards

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:48 PM

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oops all 0s and 3s

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:49 PM

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yeah, Icut the 7 that came after

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There's 1Hr, 11min left

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@young peak ? are you there? I found the answer... but forgot to include flushes DAMN IT

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:51 PM

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lmao

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:51 PM

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ye

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just researching for an essay i have to do in a week

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:54 PM

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Alright, @young peak , here's the answer: 247320400/752538150% or 0.328648% that you get 2 3andabovecard hands with 8-card draw, not overlapping.

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Roughly 1 in 300

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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i should ask

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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noice

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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did you also account for two pair?

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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yes.

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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👍

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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I accounted for 4 pairs as well

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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also isn't 0.003% 1 in 30,000?

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 4:55 PM

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ah shit, sorry, will fix

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0.123135% chance or 1 in a Thousand to get 4 pairs, so if you do...

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Screenshot immediately

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0.000103694% chance or 1 in a MILLION to get 2 Four Of A Kinds

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Ima go to sleep now, see you all later

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 5:00 PM

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lol its 9am for me cya

reef shuttle Jan 25, 2024, 5:01 PM

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cya

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 5:24 PM

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it's getting reallllllllll close

young peak Jan 25, 2024, 5:30 PM

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yay

verbal cedar Jan 25, 2024, 7:13 PM

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5    0.39%      0.20%      0.14%
6    1.81%      1.02%      0.83%
7    4.83%      3.05%      2.64%
8    9.81%      6.97%      6.19%
9   16.84%     13.37%     11.84%
10  25.59%     22.67%     19.53%
11  35.54%     34.88%     28.61%
12  45.89%     49.42%     38.48%
13  55.95%     64.91%     48.31%
14  65.15%     79.37%     57.88%
15  73.17%     90.65%     66.83%
16  79.85%     97.48%     74.96%
17  85.23%    100.00%     82.10%```

sour pollen Feb 29, 2024, 2:33 PM

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ooh thx

verbal cedar Feb 29, 2024, 2:33 PM

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this was 10 million simulations of each hand

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so it's not exact, but very close

sour pollen Feb 29, 2024, 2:34 PM

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so the number on the left is ammount of cards?

verbal cedar Feb 29, 2024, 2:34 PM

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yes

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i stopped at 17 because that's when flush goes 100%

sour pollen Feb 29, 2024, 2:34 PM

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yeah thats all I really needed which is great

sour pollen Mar 2, 2024, 2:00 PM

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Would it be possible to find these odds for every hand (excluding secret hands)

verbal cedar Mar 2, 2024, 2:31 PM

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sure

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just would take a few hours to code and run the simulations

#Poker Hand Odds With Varying Hand Sizes