Dan makes forecasting robot | PauseAI | Page 1

frozen lance Sep 10, 2024, 6:30 PM

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https://twitter.com/DanHendrycks/status/1833152719756116154?t=uJBTIiq7t1t9tqstEisMKQ&s=19

We've created a demo of an AI that can predict the future at a superhuman level (on par with groups of human forecasters working together).
Consequently I think AI forecasters will soon automate most prediction markets.

demo: https://t.co/r5NlsnAvG4
blog: https://t.co/X3eIFSPaGh

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The good news seems thst it predicts SB-1047 will be signed into law

charred carbon Sep 10, 2024, 7:40 PM

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I’m curious what training data is able to forecast stuff like this. Like what do you even use as training material?

frozen lance Sep 10, 2024, 8:13 PM

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The internet

regal condor Sep 10, 2024, 8:41 PM

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Pretty good, but not superhuman. Data contamination is likely and it makes obvious mistakes.
See the comments on the associated LessWrong post:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4kuXNhPf9FBwok7tK/ai-forecasting-bots-incoming

AI forecasting bots incoming — LessWrong

In a recent appearance on Conversations with Tyler, famed political forecaster Nate Silver expressed skepticism about AIs replacing human forecasters…

frozen lance Sep 10, 2024, 8:54 PM

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Yes. I fear this might cost him reputationally

unreal quartz Sep 11, 2024, 9:27 AM

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frozen lance https://twitter.com/DanHendrycks/status/1833152719756116154?t=uJBTIiq7t1t9tqstEi...

Are they making a killing on Manifold, Metaculus, etc?

solid blaze Sep 13, 2024, 7:59 AM

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unreal quartz Are they making a killing on Manifold, Metaculus, etc?

no

#Dan makes forecasting robot