The coming Global Disorder

[undone adder]

like all things in the modern world, The world we live in was sparked in ww2. We live in an interconnected, globalised system, with liberalist ( or idealist ) theory leading the way...

we very much forget what the world was like before the second world war, a world of security competition, great power politics, mistrust, power balancing...
Empires were at large, with imperial systems that sat on the backbone of trade, interconnectivity lead to giving your neighbours power and control, Strategic and economic autonomy was key...
The war ended, but europe burnt, and it was clear That the empires had faced their final bow at the curtain, and that the USA and USSR were now the world leaders... The USA sat at the head of the western alliance, scratching their head.

'how were we to counter the soviets? and get The old empires on our side?'

what They came up with consisted of a massive bribe, we guard free trade, The sea lanes, and actas the world police, This was an easy deal to the Europeans, America would rebuild them with themarshall plan, protect them with NATO, and keep the global sea lanes open...
The Overbearing weight of American Power and influence Froze geopolitical concerns across europe, and later, at the collapse of the soviet Union in the 90s, The globe... security competition was atthe back of everyones mind, and Capital heavyinvestment and globalisation was at the forefront...

Yet all good thingscome to an End, whether in the next 10 years, 20, 50 or century. America will slowly turn inwards, It's energy needs no longer in the persian gulf, yet in the American heartland inshale, American troops are at an all time low, and The yanks have pulled out of Afghanistan. America has all it needs at arms length, and would be a global power without gloabl interests, no longer needing a bloated military, and no longer needing to Subsidise a liberal system. geopolitics would be unfrozen, and Security competition once again On everyones minds.

this was majorly influenced by the work of Peter Zeihan, and would like to thank his series of books, another disclaimer, This isn't too much a philophical discussion, but more of a geopolitical one,but it can be both

[oak cedar]

Very long vid but I think it also touches on the same subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8

[cinder crystal]

the US is still the global hegemon (the strongest world power.) as soon as that changes, its trillions in debt will have immediate consequences

china and russia are both trying to be competitors, which is why the US is so attentive to ukraine and taiwan

in risk terms, we've reached equilibrium in a fixed cards game, and the US is sending resources into ukraine to weaken russia

[undone adder]

less so that we are having another super power, but rather losing one ( as in it still existing, but it being a global power without global interests

i don't think china can replace the USA, as we will see in the next decades, but that's a whole 'nother can of worms

[oak cedar]

I don't think Russia is competing as they simply don't have the monetary means or financial stability to overtake either china or russia on global scale

As far as China goes, i think they have the ability to overtake the USA as the dominant global power, but whether that is something that actually happens is to be seen

[tiny crane]

The end of us global hegemony has been predicted quite literally since it began. I think I'm on the side of "I'll believe it when I see it". China and India certainly have potential to become new global superpowers, but they are countries that traditionally follow protectionist international policy and that undermines the potential for influencing other countries. What the US does better than anyone currently is cultural influence. Yes the military is part of that but so is Hollywood and the music industry, as well as the vast vast amount of foreign aid the us contributes. At least if the current trends continue, China doesn't seem interested in working with foreign interests unless it benefits China longterm, whereas the US has built its place in the world largely through its willingness to invest in its public image whether that's through acting (or intending to act) as global peacekeepers or supplying medicine and technology to the global south. Not saying the US doesn't have its own form of protectionism or that the kind of foreign aid they supply doesn't carry its own problems, but it seems China would rather invest money to enrich its own people when compared to the US, and this will ultimately prevent them from superseding the us. No one views the UAE as a superpower, because wealth is just one factor that contributes to the geopolitical standing of a country

[oak cedar]

''whether that's through acting (or intending to act) as global peacekeepers'' This made me chuckle as a lot of people see it polarly opposite from this haha

I think the thing that the US is most hated for is them getting themselves involved in any conflict in the world

[tiny crane]

Without a doubt. Especially in the 2000s and 2010s American hegemony was probably reduced by their willingness to insert themselves in foreign conflicts. But on the other hand support during ww2 and more recently in Ukraine has also reinforced America's position