#Either a bug in the Horn summon system or a deliberate attempt to mislead.

1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

hardy rapids
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After going almost the whole of S1 without hitting a 20, I decided to record what the dice roll in the Horn and what I am seeing is deeply disturbing.

This topic was brought up at the end of S1 but we were told that there is nothing wrong and the system used is a "pure RNG system". Well, I am here to give evidence that it is not.

Disclaimer: I am not here to argue that the system necessarily needs to change. I am not doing a comparison on the drops rates within each level of the rewards.

My point: If the system is "pure RNG" then there is a programming error. If the system is "working as intended", then the description (when hitting the !) needs to change to publish the chance of rolling any given bracket. As it is right now, this is a gambling system that could be construed as illegal in some regions of the world.

My methodology:

Both my brother and i have recorded all our rolls from about 20 days remaining in S1 as well as all the rolls done in S2 with the results averaged together. These numbers are compared to the averages of rolling 3 different physical d20's and the average of 3 refreshes of the google search random number generator. This gives a comparison to a physical die and the comparison to a different electronic RNG system.

I then split the rolls into 6 categories: 1, 2-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20. Other than splitting the "1" off on its own, this mimics the reward brackets published in the game.

What I expect:

In a pure RNG system, each individual number has a 1 in 20 chance of appearing each time the die is rolled. This could result in all 1's or all 20's but those are statistical outliers. As the number of rolls increases, I expect that the average of rolls would get closer and closer to the following percentages:

1 - 5%
2-4 - 15%
5-9 - 25%
10-14 - 25%
15-19 - 25%
20 - 5%

These %'s match the probability of rolling in each of the ranges. (5-9 = 5 numbers therefore 5/20 = 0.25 = 25%)

TBC...

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I also expect that the total average of all the rolls would get closer and closer to "10". (for my colour coding, I have given this as a 9-11)

The actual results are anything but this expectation for the horn but, for both the d20's and the google RNG as more rolls were entered it did start conforming.

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So, the actual data:

These are the last 40 rolls of season 1:

image.png
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you will notice, since there aren't a lot of rolls, the d20 and google are somewhat spread over the control line. This is to be expected as there isn't much data, but it does loosely conform to the expected line.

Contrast this to the actual horn rolls. No rolls over 14 and 47% falling between 5 and 9.

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Now, for the season 2 rolls:

image.png
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Not surprisingly, as the season progressed, the d20's and google RNG slowly came closer and closer to the control line with google almost perfectly matching it.

What happened with the Horn? Well, it mimic'd the end rolls of S1, only this time with an incredible 54.6% of rolls falling in the 5-9 range. My brother did get his first 20 roll in 2 seasons.

You will also note that the total averages, for google and d20's, fall quite nicely into that 9-11 range that was expected. It took about half the season for them to settle into that range.

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Now for the 2 seasons together:

image.png
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This disparity between the Horn and the 2 control systems is quite bad.

limpid flicker
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I don't understand. Nobody said the rng was based on a real d20 die. It's pure rng but the rng is not that of a real die.

hardy rapids
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You cannot argue that the system is working as intended if it is to be a "pure RNG" system.

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KC - last season the mods did state that the devs told them it was a "pure RNG system"... so yes, they did say that

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and I understand that it doesn't necessarily mimic a physical die, which is why I included a completely independent electronic random number generator into my data

terse depot
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I mean it's definitely weighted rng. 15-20 is all that really matters, and generally ocurrs less often. 15+ gets you an epic. 20 gets you a legendary. Bottom line, it's free stuff

hardy rapids
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Just to be clear:

My goal is to increase the transparency of the system. If the system is working as intended, then please publish the rates just like is done in the normal summoning system.

If it is not working as intended, then it needs to be fixed.

limpid flicker
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It's pure weighted rng if you prefer.

hardy rapids
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that's fine... then publish the rates

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if 55% of the rolls are supposed to be 5-9 then let me know so I don't expect anything different.

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but their communication at the end of S1 was that it was not weighted to any specific range.

honest star
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Banners that you use money on have the rates printed, this is a bonus pull for free they can do whatever they want, it's working as intended the numbers are just visual thing but the RNG is well RNG

limpid flicker
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They don't have to show the rates, it's not a paid feature

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They are rates that are common in gacha systems, where higher rewards are much lower rate

limpid flicker
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Or a translation issue

hardy rapids
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forgive me for trying to improve the game for everyone.

If you are fine with the system and information as is, then that is fine but the least you can do is not try to argue against any improvement (whether to the system or the information surrounding the system)

honest star
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I wouldn't be fine if it's not working but it is xd

hardy rapids
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KC - not my interpretation. The reference to "pure RNG" was questioned in last season's post and clarified to mean that there is no weighting to the rolls.

limpid flicker
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I don't think your bug report is asking any improvement, you just proved what we already knew, which is that the horn is weighted rng toward lower rolls

limpid flicker
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But I don't have the data about your discussion on this topic with them

hardy rapids
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It is asking for an improvement. Publishing the rates is a QOL improvement. If it is not supposed to be weighted, then this information can help them fix it - improvement

inland jewel
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two points of fact in season one the devs said on multiple posts that it is "True RNG" which, from what i can see in the OPs posts it is far from thus either they need to set a correct expectation or its not working as intended and needs to be fixed.. both outcomes would be improvements.

2nd fact is that in more than a few contries rates need to be published paid feature or not... also would be an improvement.

limpid flicker
inland jewel
# limpid flicker rng is rng, I don't get why weighted rng wouldn't be true rng

you are correct... RNG is RNG. But Weighted RNG is just an algorithm that has a set parameter... thus not random in the slightest... so please if you want to add anything of value to this by all means but if you are just going to troll for the sake of trolling please stop so the Devs can actually respond with either a fix or a set expectation.. either way a fix or a proper expectation would be an improvement..

west glacier
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I haven’t hit a single 20 in 6 months… still the horn is a free feature. I don’t know why people are complaining.

ancient zephyr
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@hardy rapids Dear Traveler, thank you for taking the time to get in touch with us and for sharing your concerns.

Regarding your concern about RNG system, please note that we have reported it to our team and we will get back to you as soon as possible.

Thank you!

ancient zephyr
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@inland jewel @hardy rapids
Dear Traveler,

I'm sorry to hear about the issue you encountered. In the game, each time you summon a hero from the Horn, you will receive a random point (1-20). Legendary heroes are of higher quality, so the probability of obtaining them is lower compared to other quality heroes. But please don't be disheartened, you still have a chance to obtain your desired hero. I sincerely wish you the best of luck in obtaining your desired hero soon.

Furthermore, we will relay your feedback to the team. Thank you for your support and love for our game. We will continue to work hard to provide you with a better gaming experience. I hope you continue to enjoy the game's fun.

Wishing you a pleasant gaming experience! If you have any other questions or concerns, feel free to reach out to us.

inland jewel
# west glacier I haven’t hit a single 20 in 6 months… still the horn is a free feature. I don’t...

The issue is that a lot of people are frustrated. We love the free feature but we have been constantly told it is “True RNG”. That sets a specific expectation. Thus, according to that logic, the horn is not working as intended. What we are asking is that either they fix the horn, because clearly there is an issue with the fact it isn’t random, or they just set the proper expectation and stop saying it’s “random” that way if people don’t get above the 10 it usually rolls they aren’t going to be annoyed and they will be more happy when they get the actual epic or legendary from the low chance.

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The Irony is Lydia still said above it’s a “random” chance which the above numbers clearly show otherwise.

worn tendon
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To summarize, the horn is an RNG system, but is is weighted. If you were to see a 20 roll 5% of the time, the free horn would have a higher chance to give you a leggo than the actual orange dice (outside of pity). Obviously, that's not going to happen.

And it's not illegal gambling - horn rolls cannot be bought with real money. If they could, the actual roll % would have to be shared due to multiple countries' laws. Just like the actual roll% is shared for any summon/roll you can buy with real money.

hardy rapids
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I do acknowledge that a 5% chance to roll a legendary in the horn it could be a bit broken but lets look at the difference between the horn and regular summons that causes a bit of the frustration

  1. The horn uses a d20 roll and regular summons do not. The game advertises as a gacha game with DND role-playing elements including using dice rolling for many aspects. Well, if you are going to advertise dice rolling then I should be able to expect a non-weighted die. In any game, gambling or otherwise, use of a weighted die is considered cheating. Now, if they tell us that it is weighted (i.e. give us the rates) then I believe most of us would be understanding that it makes sense in a game like this to not have a true 5% rate of getting a legendary from the free horn.

  2. There is a pity system with the regular summons so the real rates are actually higher than 3%. It is obvious that there is no pity system with the horn, so if you are expecting a d20 roll to have a 5% chance, when that doesn't happen it is extremely frustrating. If we knew the rates are something like 0.5%, then there is a lot less frustration.

  3. Even as a completely f2p you can summon upwards of 100+ heliodice easily each season. That is guaranteed 2 legendaries and 5 away from the pity on a 3rd. Minimum. The horn? Well, even at a 0.5% chance, in 2 seasons you should expect to get 1 legendary but that is not guaranteed and not getting one is actually common.

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As to the argument that "it's not illegal gambling because it is free" - That doesn't fly.

You have a "free" gambling mechanic in a game with paid gambling mechanics. Saying "oh but this is free" is like a drug dealer giving you a couple of free drugs. Once you are hooked you are going to go for more. The reason countries are requiring published rates in these games is that gambling is a adult only activity. Giving some gambling for free is no different. It is still gambling. You need to publish the rates.

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Anyway, thank you for the response Lydia. I understand why the rates are weighted against rolling a 20. But please publish the rates and maybe if we could have a pity system? Maybe something like, 200 rolls and your chance of rolling a 20 goes up with each subsequent roll until you get it. Then reset. That way you should get a 20 at least once every season to 1.5 seasons. That certainly couldn't break the game.

ancient zephyr
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@hardy rapids Dear Traveler,

Thank you very much for your feedback and suggestions. We understand your concern about the drop rates of legends in Horn, but as Horn is a game welfare content, we are unable to provide specific probabilities. However, I will pass on your feedback and that of other players to our development team so they can understand the thoughts and suggestions of players.

Thank you again for your support and understanding. If you have any other questions or suggestions, please feel free to let us know. Wishing you a pleasant gaming experience!

Thank you for your cooperation and best of luck to you.

quartz marsh
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It does nothing for the game when done 2 season and not one Lego, the only reason I roll the dumb thing is for quest. I don't mind that not d20, but at this point does not even seem to be d100 to me, might just be bad luck but be nice to see the real % not some dumb d20 and why do have to pick the stupid 3 things all the time, can just at least make this the same three all the time save time.

soft hollow
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Dont worry bro. I finished S2 and Still didnt roll 20. And only rolled 15+ 3 times. The whole “dice” is rigged, what you expected a money hungry company?! So Dknt bother.

broken thistle
plucky vector
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doesnt what you post op, people worship corporations, the devs from maple story got caught manipulating numbers for items, nothing happened ot them beside small fine, these people jobs is to milk you for as much as possible, theyre not your friends. I cant imagine trusting the words of a gambling corporation thats exist to manipulate as much as possible, truly a clown world

obsidian lance
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Yes, this roll have nothing to do with d20.
Did you reallly expect devs to give you epic heroes with d20 chance.
Really?))