Using Car+Driver stats to calculate tyre wear more accurately

[radiant jetty]

(3 part post, sorry for the text wall)

TL;DR:
-We need small incidents, drivers getting a little bit loose in corners (wheel wiggles), generate a bit of tire heat, lose a small amount of time (few tenths)
-Tire heating/wear should be calculated separately for front and rear and dependent on car stats (if high front downforce rating, then rears should heat/wear much more quickly, and vice versa)
-Airflow stats on parts should factor into cooling (and should be multiplicative against front/rear downforce effectiveness, but that's an entirely different novel)
-Balance airflow and cooling together as tires have two heating/cooling components (internal and external temps) that should be kept nearish to each other to max effectiveness

Part 1: Downforce and cornering, broadly
-Generally speaking, going through a corner at maximum capability should generate a similar amount of heat in the tires. The effect of downforce will of course allow that maximum capability to be faster as more of the force is being put into aerodynamic grip before the tire's mechanical grip comes into play, but ultimately either way in this theoretical corner, you are using 100% of the tire's capability.
--In reality, track surfaces and tires are not perfectly consistent, and drivers are managing pace and tires so they do not hit these theoretical limits. Which means cars with less downforce have to rely more strongly on mechanical grip, which will result in more heating through a corner (This is not represented in game). It will also result in more slipping, usually microslipping which you'd only notice it if you were really looking closely or at telemetry (Also not represented in game, except full slips of run wides). So practically speaking, lower downforce should mean higher temps and faster tire wear.
--On the other side, the driver themselves aren't perfect either. Better drivers can get closer to that theoretical limit than worse drivers, so while setting high pace the better drivers are also likely to be generating more heat than a worse driver who's not really getting as close to the limit. So while a lesser driver will be losing time on the charts, they very well could be handling their tire life better. But also, not knowing where that limit is as well, they are also more prone to slipping and generating much more heat than they save with their slower pace. So this part is a lot more difficult to really put a conclusion to how much driver skill should come into play. This IS effectively in game (see: Smoothness), but leans heavily into worse drivers wearing tires worse, which I would not call entirely accurate. Worse at managing a tire != tire murderer
---From a game perspective, I can understand keeping the downforce functionality more in the "theoretical" description as downforce is already your god stat and really does not need to be any more powerful than it already is. I would like to see driver ability come into play by way of better "incidents", where a lower rated driver doesn't naturally wear a tire down as quickly, however they are prone to SMALL mistakes in corners which cause more wild temperature fluctuations. I suppose you could argue that the current functionality of the game represents this, just not in that detailed of a manner.

Part 2: Brake/Tire Cooling and Dirty Air
-Here's where things get more fun and complicated. There are two tire temps to concern with, the outer surface, and the inner carcass. Heat gets generated from cornering/accelerating and goes into the surface rapidly, and will seep into the carcass. Heating from braking will heat the carcass which also can seep into the surface depending which is hotter. This kind of goes against what I said before, but brakes heat up to 1000 degrees so despite them rapidly cooling back down, it does have very high temps that have to disperse. The vast majority of the heat comes from tire loads and not the brakes though, unless you have some kind of braking/cooling issue (More of this please, Max).
-The tires are cooled through two methods as well. The "brake" cooling serves a second purpose of providing the carcass a way to shed heat through the same ductwork, so when the surface is hot, that heat can go to the carcass and then to the "internal" cooling to keep the tires from melting. And then the reverse also happens with airflow over the tires to keep the surfaces cooled off, so a hot carcass can transfer heat into the surface to be released into that airflow.
--Dirty air can effect both of these, and it entirely depends on how the airflow of the car is configured. If your ducting is very particular, the wild airflow could affect your brake/internal cooling more strongly than your airflow cooling and put more heat on your tire surface as it tries to vent that carcass heat. Or if your front wing really needs clean air to force the airflow over the tire properly, but you have more lenient brake ducting then you would be relying on the carcass to be cool enough to take enough heat from the surface and dump into your functional duct cooling.
--It is important that both your surface and carcass are at optimal temperatures to function, and in regards to tire wear, it is vitally important that they are not significantly deviating from each other, it's entirely possible that you would prefer to have an overheating surface AND carcass rather than just one being hot, depending on track surface. If they deviate, then the inner and outer tire will flex in corners unevenly. If the surface is cooler than the carcass then you'll get hot pockets inside the tire trying to escape and the tire will blister. If the outside is hotter than inside, then the tire will be more prone to chunks being ripped off and graining. It's also important to note that the heat from surface and carcass do not transfer all that rapidly, this is a good thing when the surface is under load in the corner as it will greatly heat up. This is not so good when you have uneven cooling going on, either due to bad design or dirty air. This also means that "more cooling" can be a BAD thing if it only benefits the surface or the carcass.
---As it is in game, we have surface and carcass temps, but pretty much none of the above matters, as far as I have been able to tell, it's mainly just a method of shuffling heat between the surface, carcass, and brakes. There is no wear difference from having massive deviations between them and dirty air only really impacts cooling rates generally rather than specifically reducing the rate of one or the other. Dirty air also impacts downforce of course, but just apply what I said about lower downforce in the previous part to that statement.
---What could be done and would be very cool, is use the already existing "Airflow Front" stat to impact your surface temp cooling, rather than just being a downforce component. This would effectively force cooling to be more important as you couldn't just pump the airflow up for downforce without hurting your tires as you'll create a temperature deviation.