#Capture odds still broken

1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

hybrid bison
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I recorded my last 36 shard uses so you don't have to (and because probably no one from the team did before they said it's fixed).

All of those 36 shard uses had odds of between 45% and 58%. All of them were pretty much using the shard of same tier apart from 2-3 of them using the shard tier above for stage 2.

I would say (but this I can't confirm) that 2/3 odds were around 45-48% and 1/3 were around 55-58% or other.

In those 36 tries I managed to capture an Illuvial 12 times. Which is** ~33%**.

That means I failed to capture an Illuvial on 24/36 tries, or ~67%.

Those odds are much better than the ones recorded before the patch but it's pretty clear they are still broken.

I think it's only fair we get acknowledgment from the team that the odds are still broken and they're working on them as we speak (type).

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Do I need to provide more data? Is there anyone else with their experience? Has the team done any testing and can share the numbers? I'm I just in the 2% of unlucky ones in my first 36 recorded tries (after noticing something is wrong).

open bough
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There are two different kinds of animations. One is instant reject, the other one is slow reject. What's the difference in terms of the odds n code?

cunning nest
hybrid bison
zenith marsh
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I think the capture % should be higher in general but yeah this is still a relative small sample size

hybrid bison
opaque trout
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is there a way for players to trust that capture rate?

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it was bugged/wrong the first time, how do we know it's fixed now

west perch
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my 80% shards didnt fail more then once maybe twice in around 20 tries

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so i would say that its fixed

hybrid bison
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Can you share any concrete numbers and not just your feeling?

west perch
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i dont have any real numbers since i dont write down my "stats" but as i said i have really good capture success after the update

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this run i only used
3 tier5 shards cought 2 rhamphys (around 50% success rate in game was stated) one shard failed
4 tier5 shards cought 4 phyri (around 80-85% success rate in game was stated) no shards failed
and 1 tier3 shard on railee

image.png
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so i would say that its fixed

opaque trout
vocal copper
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This is a very very small sample and a small deviation. We need huge data to pull conclusions on this

Team has all data easily, if its still broken i hope and expect they would let us know asap and try to fix it

hybrid bison
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I agree this is a small sample, but this is not a small deviation.

But I agree that we need more data, that's exactly what I'm trying to do.

This is all the data I have and what I can provide. Like I said, I would be happy to be proven wrong and that I'm only the unluckiest player ever (same as in Beyond).

But it's fair to question something that was wrong before and that smells like it's wrong again. That's why we have testing now.

vocal copper
earnest sky
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definitely a lot better then before, i would be surpriced if the team is not monitoring it to see how the fix is doing/how accurate is it

fierce tulip
hybrid bison
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Updated data from my own finding

67 tries

40 fails, 27 catches....

Which is now at around 40% catch rate which is much better than before.

But I would still like to hear from the team that they've checked and everything works just fine.

Also, today I had a lot more of 43-46% odds (instead of 45-48%) and 54-57% (instead of 55-58%). Are odds falling that quickly in one day??

autumn wraith
opaque trout
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whats shown is the capture rate. shouldnt be any hidden rate

autumn wraith
hybrid bison
autumn wraith
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Everyone is capturing the same illuvials so it might be heightened by that.

hybrid bison
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But everyone will be capturing the same Illuvials once we go live as well. And we expect a lot more player once we're live.

Maybe this is just for testing?

autumn wraith
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any further developments with this? @hybrid bison.
My experience as been getting worse and worse, failing consecutive high chance captures. I'm tending to agree with you that the capture odds are still not displayed correctly.

hybrid bison
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I stopped tracking tbh.

My post was basically just a question for the team to try and get the positive answer that everything is checked and it's working fine. But we aren't getting that. So it is what it is.

I'm planning on writing a proposal for changing capture odds. But I don't feel like getting s*it on by the team tbh so maybe not...

autumn wraith
hybrid bison
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My opinion is that odds for trying to catch something with the shard of tier higher should be higher.

Feels silly when I'm trying to catch T4S1 and I use 3 Tier 5 shards and I have no chance of catching it...

I would be so frustrated if I'm losing 3 Tier 5 shards because I saw Tier 4 in the wild...

Not to mention other odds. You can't catch anything good without max upgrades and Tier 5 shards and getting lucky. Once with real money involved it will just be annoyed and waste of money.

autumn wraith
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this if they are stage 1 and lvl 1.

hybrid bison
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It's really hard to say anything remotely clever without knowing the formula and percentages... But I feel like we are only okay with these right now because it's monopoly money.

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Catching Tier 3 Stage 1 with Tier 3 shard and 30 capture rate added with drone gives you something like less than 50% chance.

If you have 3 chances that's something like 87% chance.

I feel like we should be at around 95% with 3 chances of the same tier.

That would mean at least 60% chance with every capture try.

autumn wraith
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my drone upgrades are not maxed with the random mod so it's probably around that.

hybrid bison
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Nobody will have the max drone in real life. I'm at 200+ hours and countless monopoly money spent and I'm only at Stage 1 drone upgrades for catch rate.

autumn wraith
hybrid bison
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There is also another idea that in my opinion works really well. Don't change odds much. But reward good play.

Quick example, every time you try to catch an Illuvial it weakens a bit and next time your odds are better.

50% first time, 60% second, 72% third or something like that....

autumn wraith
zenith marsh
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I failed a 48% 4 times in a row on a holo ramphyAtlas_Dead

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Maybe holos have a different % to them or something. Or just unlucky

autumn wraith
hybrid bison
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4 chances to catch tier 3 Illuvial with tier 3 shard... failed....

even if that is something really rare... it's something really stupid... doesn't reward me for playing the game well... just forces me to use more money or to try and get lucky...

autumn wraith
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it might be just my bad luck but alphie seems way harder to catch than the other T5's

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I have 50+% chance of capture and I keep failing and failing

zenith marsh
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Same for scarabock

vocal copper
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Ive won way too many 30-55% since the holo patch

If it was on the other side i wouldve become a conspirationist for sure

hybrid bison
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tbh with 50% chance it’s really easy to get 3-4 fails in a row

autumn wraith
opaque trout
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i dont feel its broken anymore

analog shell
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I think it is close but still off by about 10% maybe 20% so not as bad as before but today for example failed 4 70% in a row followed by an 83% on same encounter. Then I failed a 98 percent. I also failed a decent number of 70 plus percents. That being said I have mostly gotten 60% and above in 2 tries or less however, some outliers are in there that lead me to believe its not quite at the right percent still. I'm not keeping perfect track on a spread sheet but have about a 60% catch rate with 75 percent shards and 50-60% feels pretty close. I have also got a few 46ish percents on the other side. Obviously sample size is important as in small samples you can see some quite outlandish results however I think many seem to feel it is still a bit off at times and that generally comes for a reason. 1/4 75% fail so maybe just feels worse when it fails than when it catches too. Negative bias is a real thing.

cunning nest
cerulean mica
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It feels like the holo ones might need a second look at the numbers.

analog shell
autumn wraith
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the amount of times I've failed to capture 95% + is disgusting 🤮
I still don't trust the capture number displayed.

opaque trout
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just recently?

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it happened to me once 90%+ failed

autumn wraith
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just missed a 97% again

brittle elk
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I missed a 98% today... cried a little

opaque trout
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what if the bonding curver formulae is bugged again

cerulean mica
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I've missed several high percentage captures, but they have all been holo. The rest of the non holo ones the percentage seems good.

tawdry pasture
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@muted gale not sure if you can confirm or not but are the capture rates across the board relatively close to the percentages that are being displayed in the UI?

I feel that the community is basing their sentiment and opinion solely on anecdotal and/or small sample size.

Side note: I wonder if a mechanism where you fail with a shard would actually give a bonus percentage to the next attempt to shard based on the type of shard you used previously, would be a good idea.

Ex. 40% chance to capture with T3 shard. It fails, it then gains a 5% bonus to capture. This can also affect how people maximize their MP for more capture chances at the same time gives relief for losing that shard and energy from a failed capture.

hybrid bison
# tawdry pasture <@115133100488523779> not sure if you can confirm or not but are the capture rat...

Side note is something I was proposing a few times in a few different places.

in my mind it would work something like:

(Lore) When you try to capture an Illuvial with a shard and you fail. I weakens the Illuvials because of the fight he had to put out to break out of the shard. (or whatever fits)

We don't know the formula on how the capture chance works, but I would go in that direction. Every shard weakens the Illuvial a different amount. So if it escapes Tier 1 shard it's a bit weaker, if it escapes Tier 5 shard, it's a lot weaker. With it being weaker it's easier for you to catch it.

Maybe weaker is the wrong word. But something.

My aim was getting to over 95% chance of catching something with 3 tries if you use the same tier shard as Illuvial. (up from something like 85-90%)

edit: there was a proposal that Aaron (I think, or maybe Kieran) said he finds interesting - and the proposal was getting shard dust from failed captures, but I think that this is a much better idea

tawdry pasture
brittle elk
muted gale
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Heya

I've just had a look and I can confirm that the empirical capture rate close as can be given sample size to what we would expect it to be given the bonding curve as well as each capture influencing it slightly
I did some checks last week to make sure the UIs I've seen matched with the bonding curve as well so that would complete the cycle

Will do another pass of those after next release (because we're tuning this all the time), seeing some UIs helps so feel free to add them here, also depends on Drone attachments with capture power (capture power != capture %), level of what you're capturing etc

woeful wadi
autumn wraith
sharp bear
opaque trout
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highly unlikely

cerulean mica
autumn wraith
opaque trout
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just failed 3 x 75% in a row

zenith marsh
opaque trout
barren oracle
opaque trout
tawdry pasture
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Jag the outlier Atlas_Dead

opaque trout