Illuvium Economy

[minor scarab]

Hi,

With the incoming release it’s important to design and ensure we’ve a clean and clear games economy. Even more having multiple title being released at the same time.

I would like to have a clear picture of the games economy.

Costs. Aquisition and retention. Spending streams. Illuvials cost. Augment costs. Deck costs. Drop rates normal/holo/dark/high starts.

We need everything at the earliest to be able to understand where we are headed into.

We know we need to pay for traveling, pay to cure shards, pay to acquire raw materials, pay to craft, pay to heal illuvials, pay for skins, pay for blasts, pay for whatever.

What’s the economist paid for months take away are ? What’s the team opinion ? What’s the council opinion ?

With the variable cost what are we going into.

We are a few weeks, months from release. It’s time.

We need to understand.

[fading beacon]

I would agree that run prices would be good to know. I would disagree that drop rates are a need to know. That’s part of playing the game.

[raw moat]

Afaik they don't wana share droprates anyways.
Which makes all price debates pretty hard to do.

[fading beacon]

I disagree that it makes price debates hard. No one knew the drop rate of a holographic charizard card when Pokémon cards first came out. But people still bought packs. The fun isn’t knowing exactly how often something is found, it’s finding it.

I guess it depends on what you mean by making price debates hard.

Because you’re correct, it does make them hard. But I guess my point is that it shouldn’t matter.

[raw moat]

Like if you wana Set prices for a competitive Deck.
If you need for example t5 in your Deck to be competitive and you don't know the droprates you can't Set really prices. Or you simply don't care if it stays affordable to be competitive.

For example you would Like to See a competitive Deck at 200$ ish.
You Set cost for Runs AT Like 1$, 3$, 10$...
The whole calculation simply don't work, because infact a t5 would have a droprates of 1% on a Stage 3 Run.

So you would be at 1k$ for a ramphy and an mentally Ill price for a ramphyre.

[fallow sonnet]

It would be good to know at least the stuff that's fix.

I want to know:

• travel costs
• crafting costs
• fusing/healing costs

The rest I can rhyme myself roughly together. Traveling and crafting are arguably the most important costs.

[modern gust]

Looks like the conversation is starting.. ☺️

[steady knoll]

I think to start with it'd be great to hear what the DAO / the illuvium economist is thinking first and then we give feedback from there

[fallow sonnet]

Yeah, that would be a good start.

[forest pawn]

I think that it's important to get the T2 &T3 price right in relation to T1. It's good to have it at cheap prices for accessibility but if it's too cheaper then T1 & T2 will be obsolete.
If someone has to do 4xT1 runs to get the worth of a T2 run then i think that T2 should be at least 5x more expensive so that there is worth in doing runs.

So much to consider and so complex. I feel like I'm talking smack when not knowing so much. Would love to hear an AMA with the economic to hear his thoughts.

[river helm]

three letters

N D A

[river helm]

just need to know the cost of a deck

[main sun]

I dont think there's such thing as a 'cost for a deck'.

If the competitive deck going rate is sitting at $500 you will have no buyers. So the price will drop. Eventually it will be $200, $100, whatever.

This goes across the board. If you cant make profit selling your deck for 1k then the price you are willing to pay for travel also shifts. And the overall economy readjusts to suit.

Now this obviously has its own set of risks but establishing a 'set' outcome is unusual to me. The more living and breathing all the mechanics are, the more interesting and innovative illuvium is. Helping it stand out from the crowd

Or you can do a Bigtime or Yuga and change the economy 2 days after a game launches and lose your entire playerbase.

[fluid saffron]

I'd like to bring some data, before we start to throw numbers around.
Average per-capita income in the world per day = $8
Average gamer spending per day = $2.5

With this data we can conclude that if we want the average gamer to play our game for 3-4 hours per day and a run is 30 minutes. The cost for travel should be betwen $2.5 / 6 = $0.40 to $2.5 / 8 = $0.30. And additional costs of runs should be included in these numbers.

From this point on it's just my opinion.

If someone tries to bring the "you can sell your illuvials" argument. I'd like to point, that this is the very opposite of what you want to do in creature collector game.

We need either to drop prices across the board, or drop the act that we want mass adoption.

[minor scarab]

Traveling cost is only a fraction of the total costs

Curing shards, forging items, healing illuvials,….

How many illuvials per run, how many runs to reach the right level with your illuvial, trip needed for materials, cost to fuse, etc…

Skins, blasts, emotes, are not mandatory to play but still need to understand what’s the objective and pricing of those

I mean… it’s a whole ecosystem and we have no idea where we are headed …

[cold elm]

We want to retain players, that’s the main goal. Second is to make a steady income from those players.

We need to establish what is the point where a player becomes hooked into the world and wants to invest more time and money.

Players can’t be forced to spend hundreds of dollars before this activation event is met.

Illuvials are essentially collectables. If a player is interested in the OW or Arena they will want to grow their team overtime. I think it’s best to play the long game and keep costs fairly low.

[river helm]

Do we even know how much is total supply of illuvials?

[river helm]

Travel price is not even half of the equation.
The discussion is pointless without knowing encounter rate, capture rate, curing etc.
How much the average gamers are willing to spend to get a decent deck? the cost of a deck is tangible

[raw moat]

There is no total supply

[river helm]

like axie?

[raw moat]

Was mentioned multiple times that droprates won't be shared. Which makes these debates kind of pointless imo. Beside talking about if it should be accessible for everyone or if we wana exclude India mobile gaming Market of the equation or other basic Stuff.
But throwing random numbers in doesn't really help i feel

[raw moat]

The only limitation is that the sets end and you can never capture them again after that, but during the Set there is no limitation

[river helm]

oh like pokemon

[raw moat]

Haven't played that for a while... maybe 😄

[river helm]

so basically the price of travel is just perception. Then u should go lowest amount like cents

[raw moat]

In Stage 1 i feel that's a good thing if droprates of higher Tier Stuff is really low, so if one want to play the whole Weekend, he can without spending a fortune

[forest viper]

Illuvial/augment/deck costs will be determined by the market and fluctuate - like all markets do - with supply and demand. Not something you can discuss beforehand. Just embrace the complexity, it's beautiful!

[forest viper]

Except, there is a bonding curve. With each captured illuvial, the next one will be a little harder to catch. So capture rates could be massively different at the beginning of a set compared to the end of it.

[forest viper]

Why would you be so eager to shoot yourself in the foot, giving away these beautiful creatures for cents? Then probably being vocal about less-than-expected revenue a week later...

[raw moat]

Don't think it will be "massively" cause then no one would go and try to catch.... But yea, could be.

[river helm]

$1 of a 0.000000001% chance is still a billion dollar

[forest viper]

Yes, we don't know the extent. I'm just basing my assumptions on earlier Aaron interviews where he said that at the end of it, illuvials will be so hard to catch that people will simply give up trying to capture them. (I guess a new set would be introduced before this would be the case for all illuvials of a set, to keep things going)

[river helm]

without knowing the table, they are basically saying we have no say in this

which is fine

[forest viper]

I think they are still figuring this out, but it should be based on data and our economists. Popular vote might not be the best solution for this.

[river helm]

unlikely they gonna publish the data

[forest viper]

which is fine, just like you said 🙂 we have people getting paid to figure this out

[fading beacon]

Even with the data, it’s tough to estimate user behavior. Best approach is to go live, see how user behavior is, know which levers are available, and adjust. While it’s important to have a reasonable cost at launch, it’s more important to be able to adapt. Also, from a psychological perspective, it’s a lot easier to convince users that you’re lowering costs, than it is to raise costs once the game is live.

[raw moat]

Actually raising costs in this example would be way easier. You could say them they played on a Discount up to the point of change.
Otherwhise you have to Tell them they paid too much money up to the point of change.

[river helm]

they dont have to change price. they only have to change the RNG

which is why it will stay hidden

[fading beacon]

Strongly disagree. Much easier to lower costs.

[fading beacon]

That is one potential lever.

[raw moat]

Why?

[river helm]

price up, people mad. cash grab

[fading beacon]

If you start playing the game and pay $5 a run. And all of a sudden I tell you, you have to pay $10 for the same run. How are you going to feel?

[raw moat]

Lucky i played when it was cheap.
But thats not an answer to my question...

[fading beacon]

That literally is an answer to your question. Do you get upset when Netflix raises their prices? Or are you happy that you watched the content when it was cheap?

[raw moat]

A question is not an answer my friend

No need to insult mate.
Maybe we talk tomorrow when you are not that emotional anymore

[raw moat]

True in a lot of cases but here, in a game where you own the assets you bought and farmed and can sell them again?

Let's think about it. I played now for lets say 2 months, i grinded hard and got a decent amount of Illuvials, augements and materials of all kind.

Scenario 1: lowering costs.
How i feel: Damed, my assets are now x amount less worth. I payed too much playing the game.
My thoughts: Do they lower the prices again? Should i keep grinding, stop playing the game at all, or just wait until they lowered the prices again?
--> What if the prices keep decreasing? Basically every time they do, my assets are worth less.

Scenario 2: increasing costs
How i feel: Nice, my assets are now worth x amount more. I got basically a discount for everything i did.
My thoughts: Do they increase the prices again? Should i grind even harder before they raise again? (Discount hunting behaviour) Is it still affordable for me?
--> What if the prices keep increasing? basically every time they do, my assets are worth more.

[fading beacon]

This is putting yourself solely in the shoes of an early adopter. There are users who will have just joined and prices are raised on them. There are users who are considering playing and are now priced out. You have to think of the whole ecosystem. Also, even if your previous assets are worth more, it makes playing the game more expensive. Are you here for 2 months or 3 years. And are you happy that it’s going to cost more to keep playing for longer? It’s not as black and white as your scenario.

[raw moat]

the thoughts remain the same.
If i'm totally new, and saw a drop in all prices i most likely going to wait another month or two so economy can stabilize, maybe prices are going even lower.
If so i start thinking should i even play it if basically in 2 years all the stuff is worth nothing anymore.

If im totally new and prices start increasing, i'm heading in, and maybe with my skill i can make up for the lack of money before it would get too expensive for me to play.
If not, shit happens and i can sell everything for a profit.
(Which probably won't happen, since they stated they wana make it afordable for the majority)

[fading beacon]

If our users are making decisions to play the game based on fluctuating asset prices instead of whether they want to play the game for enjoyment. Then we’ve lost IMO.

[raw moat]

ofc they do, as soon as money is involved you start thinking about it. Some more than others.
They game being fun is just a must have, without that you won't get gamers thinking about joining Illuviums universe... nothing to do with setting up an economy.

i'm still curious, what is your thought process in decreasing prices would be more beneficial, maybe you can elaborate on that. 🙂 @fading beacon

[fading beacon]

I don’t think it will be more beneficial. Why? Because I don’t have any data to make this assessment. My point was from a psychological perspective, it is easier for users to accept the cost to play going down then the cost to play going up.

[fading beacon]

Also, I didn’t say they wouldn’t think about asset prices. I said if they’re making their decisions of playing the game based on fluctuating asset prices, then we’ve lost the plot. They should decide to play the game based on wanting to play the game or we’ll never get out of the crypto market.

[raw moat]

ofc. they should 🙂
But once they made that decision, next question is can i even afford playing that game.

[fading beacon]

Good thing there’s a free mode.

[raw moat]

and then they start thinking about pricing, price changes, should i start, when should i start etc.

[fading beacon]

This is kind of my point. Thinking about can I afford and should I, I agree with. Thinking about when should I start shouldn’t enter a normal gamers mind IMO.

[raw moat]

if you found a new game, and the game is totally fresh. you played it for 2 months for free or you just joined and are 2 days in and they start swapping arround pricing, you then think " well i dont give a shit, i just start now going into the paid action"?

[fading beacon]

You decide whether you can afford it and if it’s a good enough game to purchase things in. But a gamer shouldn’t have to try to time the market to play a game.

[raw moat]

never said a gamer shoudl try to time the market 😄

[fading beacon]

“Maybe I wait a month or two” = timing the market.

[raw moat]

basically i said
if you buy stuff and price keeps decreasing you most likely don't like that
if you buy stuff and price keeps increasing you most likely like that

you basically said,
i don't care, i can afford now 1k if it's worth nothing in 2 months shit happens.
not even shit happens, it should motivate me to keep buying...

[fading beacon]

Literally didn’t say this anywhere.

[raw moat]

it's a eli5 tldr of what you said

[fading beacon]

This isn’t going anywhere 😂 you’re correct on everything. Please asset go up.

I’m logging off for now

[cold elm]

Players can catch T0 for free, they may need 3 or so higher tier before becoming hooked on Arena gameplay.

Average max I would spend to see if a game is fun would be $60 for others it might be $20 or $200.

Fact is that if it costs $100 on average to acquire those 3 higher tier Illuvials you have just lost me and the other player as we have spent our max and don’t have much to show for it.

There will be many that like to collect Illuvials. Same goes for them. If travel is affordable they will return for more runs and get to a point where they have so many Illuvials they just want to keep going. If it’s too pricey you have lost them before they have become truly interested.

[main sun]

I agree with you. I think many are assuming the current drop rates of Illuvium when they consider these aspects. Where I'd put T5 Illuvials at about 20%+ in a stage 3 run. It gets interesting since if a T5 has 20% in an encounter but u can scan every encounter and there might be 10 of them. Then u can consistently pull 2 T5s every run. But you are right, since u need to merge etc this seems pretty astronomical.

[left perch]

Let’s just let the free market take the wheel🤙🏾

[river helm]

We have a fuel price ceilling to attract web2 gamers.
You are assuming that demand is constant or increasing with higher travel cost.
With this system, are you going to lower travel price during the bear market to further decrease asset prices?

I have never played a game with increasing cost to play

Even with ownership, I would think why would I play a game that keeps on getting expensive. I have tons of AAA award winning web2 games for $60

[raw moat]

Yes we have, and it's this ceiling we are talking about in this thread, right? (Besides ratio of production in IZ and cost of Stuff in OW)
I guess demand is not really possible to be constant, its either decreasing or increasing.
I wouldn't look at all at how crypto market stays. Like if i play a game and i wana pay money to buy stuff in it, i don't really care if coca cola had a bad year and it's value is decreasing.

[river helm]

We are competing with Free to play games and Game of they Year AAA games, and you want to make it more expensive

This is not Iphone

[raw moat]

never said i wana make it more expensive.
i just said it would be easier to advertise an increase in price than a decrease in price

[river helm]

I believe price should not change. It's just bad for asset pricing and market psychology.

[raw moat]

absolutely, would be the ideal case

[lunar wind]

Stop with your $1 trips we're going to have our illuvials for 10 cents

It would hurt me too much😭

[brazen yew]

Good
Level 1 bad stat tier 1s should be pretty worthless

[main sun]

I bought a box of 1000 shitty pokemon cards for $5 recently

just be thankful IMX is gas free 😛

[fading beacon]

It’s true. But even all of those came from $5 packs 🤔

[main sun]

U think if those packs were $100 it would be a different story?

I've bought 3$ packs and I've bought $10 packs. There are only 2 differences I've observed.

The packs resale is heavily determinant. Normally their initial price indicates scarcity.

The rare cards tend to be more valuable.

However the common and uncommon cards are worth the same.

[fading beacon]

I think if those packs were $100 pokemon wouldn’t be a thing 😂